Original FBG Dynasty Rankings Thread | Page 16

gianmarco

Oct 6 2007, 03:01 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)

Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:

QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit

Well, for one it's obvious you think NO is going to break out in their game against Carolina. I happen to agree, so if there's a Saints player you're after, I'd do it quick. However, a couple of these I completely don't agree with.

1. MJD @ KC. MJD just hasn't gotten going yet and it's not bc of lack of chances. So far, Fred has just run better than him. I think for MJD to break out this week, he'll need more touches than he's gotten and I just don't see that happening. But, the main thing is that they are going to be playing @ Arrowhead stadium against a KC defense that is quietly one of the top defenses in the league. I see that game as being a very low-scoring, defensive affair without many impressive stat lines. I think MJD's dynasty value will actually go even lower after this game. This isn't a knock on MJD, but I think if you want to acquire him, I'd wait until after this week as I think he goes even lower.

2. As point out above, I think Devery Henderson is slowly playing himself out of a starting roster spot and I'm not surprised at all. As a Saint's fan, I've gotten to see him quite a bit and just don't think he's cut out to be #2 WR. He's too inconsistent, too streaky, with horrible hands to function as a reliable #2. Right now, I really don't know who is going to end up with that #2 spot, if anyone. But, from the guys I've seen, I really like Lance Moore the best. I don't know if he'll ever make a huge fantasy impact, but I would not be surprised in the least if he ends up as the #2 WR by the end of the year. I know that Henderson can probably be had pretty cheaply right now, but I don't see his upside as much different than a lot of other WR's to be had at the same price.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 6 2007, 03:26 PM

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 6 2007, 03:01 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)

Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:

QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit

Well, for one it's obvious you think NO is going to break out in their game against Carolina. I happen to agree, so if there's a Saints player you're after, I'd do it quick. However, a couple of these I completely don't agree with.

1. MJD @ KC. MJD just hasn't gotten going yet and it's not bc of lack of chances. So far, Fred has just run better than him. I think for MJD to break out this week, he'll need more touches than he's gotten and I just don't see that happening. But, the main thing is that they are going to be playing @ Arrowhead stadium against a KC defense that is quietly one of the top defenses in the league. I see that game as being a very low-scoring, defensive affair without many impressive stat lines. I think MJD's dynasty value will actually go even lower after this game. This isn't a knock on MJD, but I think if you want to acquire him, I'd wait until after this week as I think he goes even lower.

2. As point out above, I think Devery Henderson is slowly playing himself out of a starting roster spot and I'm not surprised at all. As a Saint's fan, I've gotten to see him quite a bit and just don't think he's cut out to be #2 WR. He's too inconsistent, too streaky, with horrible hands to function as a reliable #2. Right now, I really don't know who is going to end up with that #2 spot, if anyone. But, from the guys I've seen, I really like Lance Moore the best. I don't know if he'll ever make a huge fantasy impact, but I would not be surprised in the least if he ends up as the #2 WR by the end of the year. I know that Henderson can probably be had pretty cheaply right now, but I don't see his upside as much different than a lot of other WR's to be had at the same price.

1. I say expect the unexpected with MJD this week. I know the Chiefs defense is playing well (especially their pass D), but all MJD needs is one crease and he can take it to the house. He's way overdue for that.

2. I've never been a big Devery Henderson fan, but I got the impression from other Saints fans that he had worked his way out of the doghouse by now. Still, I'll take your word for it. He's probably a better roll of the dice in a redraft league if you think he has a chance to escape the doghouse, but I think you're right on dynasty value...he's not the future at #2 WR in New Orleans.

awesomeness

Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

gianmarco

Oct 7 2007, 08:27 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 02:26 PM)

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 6 2007, 03:01 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)

Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:

QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit

Well, for one it's obvious you think NO is going to break out in their game against Carolina. I happen to agree, so if there's a Saints player you're after, I'd do it quick. However, a couple of these I completely don't agree with.

1. MJD @ KC. MJD just hasn't gotten going yet and it's not bc of lack of chances. So far, Fred has just run better than him. I think for MJD to break out this week, he'll need more touches than he's gotten and I just don't see that happening. But, the main thing is that they are going to be playing @ Arrowhead stadium against a KC defense that is quietly one of the top defenses in the league. I see that game as being a very low-scoring, defensive affair without many impressive stat lines. I think MJD's dynasty value will actually go even lower after this game. This isn't a knock on MJD, but I think if you want to acquire him, I'd wait until after this week as I think he goes even lower.

2. As point out above, I think Devery Henderson is slowly playing himself out of a starting roster spot and I'm not surprised at all. As a Saint's fan, I've gotten to see him quite a bit and just don't think he's cut out to be #2 WR. He's too inconsistent, too streaky, with horrible hands to function as a reliable #2. Right now, I really don't know who is going to end up with that #2 spot, if anyone. But, from the guys I've seen, I really like Lance Moore the best. I don't know if he'll ever make a huge fantasy impact, but I would not be surprised in the least if he ends up as the #2 WR by the end of the year. I know that Henderson can probably be had pretty cheaply right now, but I don't see his upside as much different than a lot of other WR's to be had at the same price.

1. I say expect the unexpected with MJD this week. I know the Chiefs defense is playing well (especially their pass D), but all MJD needs is one crease and he can take it to the house. He's way overdue for that.

2. I've never been a big Devery Henderson fan, but I got the impression from other Saints fans that he had worked his way out of the doghouse by now. Still, I'll take your word for it. He's probably a better roll of the dice in a redraft league if you think he has a chance to escape the doghouse, but I think you're right on dynasty value...he's not the future at #2 WR in New Orleans.

Good call, F&L. MJD looked great on that run.

As for Henderson, well, he put up seemingly good #'s, but he cost New Orleans the game. That INT on Brees was entirely on him. He simply cannot catch a ball consistently. Somehow, he's still there though.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 08:43 PM

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 7 2007, 08:27 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 02:26 PM)

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 6 2007, 03:01 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)

Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:

QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit

Well, for one it's obvious you think NO is going to break out in their game against Carolina. I happen to agree, so if there's a Saints player you're after, I'd do it quick. However, a couple of these I completely don't agree with.

1. MJD @ KC. MJD just hasn't gotten going yet and it's not bc of lack of chances. So far, Fred has just run better than him. I think for MJD to break out this week, he'll need more touches than he's gotten and I just don't see that happening. But, the main thing is that they are going to be playing @ Arrowhead stadium against a KC defense that is quietly one of the top defenses in the league. I see that game as being a very low-scoring, defensive affair without many impressive stat lines. I think MJD's dynasty value will actually go even lower after this game. This isn't a knock on MJD, but I think if you want to acquire him, I'd wait until after this week as I think he goes even lower.

2. As point out above, I think Devery Henderson is slowly playing himself out of a starting roster spot and I'm not surprised at all. As a Saint's fan, I've gotten to see him quite a bit and just don't think he's cut out to be #2 WR. He's too inconsistent, too streaky, with horrible hands to function as a reliable #2. Right now, I really don't know who is going to end up with that #2 spot, if anyone. But, from the guys I've seen, I really like Lance Moore the best. I don't know if he'll ever make a huge fantasy impact, but I would not be surprised in the least if he ends up as the #2 WR by the end of the year. I know that Henderson can probably be had pretty cheaply right now, but I don't see his upside as much different than a lot of other WR's to be had at the same price.

1. I say expect the unexpected with MJD this week. I know the Chiefs defense is playing well (especially their pass D), but all MJD needs is one crease and he can take it to the house. He's way overdue for that.

2. I've never been a big Devery Henderson fan, but I got the impression from other Saints fans that he had worked his way out of the doghouse by now. Still, I'll take your word for it. He's probably a better roll of the dice in a redraft league if you think he has a chance to escape the doghouse, but I think you're right on dynasty value...he's not the future at #2 WR in New Orleans.

Good call, F&L. MJD looked great on that run.

As for Henderson, well, he put up seemingly good #'s, but he cost New Orleans the game. That INT on Brees was entirely on him. He simply cannot catch a ball consistently. Somehow, he's still there though.

Well, MJD looked great against the Chiefs today, but the guys who said he's not going to be used consistently enough to have reliable value have been right so far. On the heels of a sensational rookie season, he's being used less this year. It doesn't really make sense, but nonetheless that's life under Del Rio.

If Meachem can come along in the next few weeks and Lance Moore keeps stepping up into that #3 void, you have to figure Henderson will work his way out of the rotation in the 2nd half of the season. Is this Saints offense going to get on track at all this year? Maybe not to the levels of last season, but 20 points would be nice. Is there any silver lining here? It seemed like the Saints controlled the game today, but drops and turnovers did them in offensively.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 09:58 PM

Updated through the 1:00 & 4:00 Sunday games of Week 5.

2007 WORST PERSON IN FANTASY FOOTBALL AWARD
Pre-Season: Jack Del Rio
Week 1: Cam Cameron
Week 2: Cam Cameron / Norv Turner
Week 3: Rex Grossman / Lovie Smith
Week 4: Brad Childress
Week 5: Travis Henry

WEEK 5 POWER RANKINGS

AFC
1. New England Patriots, 5-0 / +117
2. Indianapolis Colts, 5-0 / +76
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4-1 / +85

4. San Diego Chargers, 2-3 / +4
5. Tennessee Titans, 3-1 / +25
6. Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-1 / +22
7. Baltimore Ravens, 3-2 / -9
8. Houston Texans, 3-2 / +17

NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 4-0 / +79
2. Green Bay Packers, 4-1 / +32

3. Washington Redskins, 3-1 / +35
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-2 / +18
5. Chicago Bears, 2-3 / -28
6. Seattle Seahawks, 3-2 / +13
7. Arizona Cardinals 3-2 / +7
8. New York Giants 3-2 / -1
Tie. Carolina Panthers 3-2 / -2

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 10:09 PM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

EBF

Oct 7 2007, 10:17 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

awesomeness

Oct 7 2007, 10:24 PM

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:17 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

so i take it you also predicted that kenton kieth was going to have success in the NFL in june of this year?

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 10:26 PM

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 10:17 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

I agree. He's a must-have for Addai owners in dynasty leagues like Selvin Young/Travis Henry, Brian Leonard/Steven Jackson, Ladell Betts/Clinton Portis, and Sammy Morris/Laurence Maroney. But you're right. In Indy, the offense can make any RB productive. Keith doesn't have the future value that Leonard & Selvin Young do....and you have to wonder if he's going to be worked into the regular rotation like Sammy Morris and Betts, or if he's going to stay the clear cut back-up to be used only in case of injury to Addai.

Bears_Man2

Oct 7 2007, 10:32 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 08:58 PM)

NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 4-0 / +79
2. Green Bay Packers, 4-0 / +39

3. Washington Redskins, 3-1 / +35
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-2 / +18
5. Seattle Seahawks, 3-2 / +13
6. Chicago Bears, 1-3 / -35
7. Arizona Cardinals 3-2 / +7
8. New York Giants 3-2 / -1
Tie. Carolina Panthers 3-2 / -2

I really don't believe we're better than the Cardinals with Warner at the helm. Very improved defense and with Warner under center, a very potent passing attack with solid running game. IMO Barring major injury, they're a playoff team.

Probably not better than the G men either. I refuse to rate any David Carr-led team ahead of the Bears.

*Not sure how the rankings are calculated, just my opinion.

EBF

Oct 7 2007, 10:44 PM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 09:24 PM)

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:17 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

so i take it you also predicted that kenton kieth was going to have success in the NFL in june of this year?

Like I said, any RB who starts for the Colts is a good option for your FF squad.

Keith won the backup role. Addai got hurt. Keith will be a good option until Addai gets healthy.

Does this make him a great talent or a good dynasty buy? No. He'll have to show me a lot more before I consider him a decent long-term player. As of now he's nothing more than a handcuff.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 10:48 PM

QUOTE (Bears_Man2 @ Oct 7 2007, 10:32 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 08:58 PM)

NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 4-0 / +79
2. Green Bay Packers, 4-0 / +39

3. Washington Redskins, 3-1 / +35
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-2 / +18
5. Seattle Seahawks, 3-2 / +13
6. Chicago Bears, 1-3 / -35
7. Arizona Cardinals 3-2 / +7
8. New York Giants 3-2 / -1
Tie. Carolina Panthers 3-2 / -2

I really don't believe we're better than the Cardinals with Warner at the helm. Very improved defense and with Warner under center, a very potent passing attack with solid running game. IMO Barring major injury, they're a playoff team.

Probably not better than the G men either. I refuse to rate any David Carr-led team ahead of the Bears.

*Not sure how the rankings are calculated, just my opinion.

What if they come back and beat the Packers tonight? Would that change your mind?

You may be right. I think the Bears are more talented, their defense should get relatively healthy soon, and I think Griese will play a little better once he gets comfortable with his receivers. The Cards D is definitely improved, yet they almost lost to the Rams who many believe are the worst team in football. Plus, Warner is always an injury waiting to happen, which would put the team in whose hands?

Bears_Man2

Oct 7 2007, 10:54 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:48 PM)

What if they come back and beat the Packers tonight? Would that change your mind?

You may be right. I think the Bears are more talented, their defense should get relatively healthy soon, and I think Griese will play a little better once he gets comfortable with his receivers. The Cards D is definitely improved, yet they almost lost to the Rams who many believe are the worst team in football. Plus, Warner is always an injury waiting to happen, which would put the team in whose hands?

It's possible they come back here. Wouldn't change my mind that the Cardinals are better right now though.

I really like what the Cardinals have done this year thus far. You're right the Cardinals are a Warner injury away from being toast. I just rank based on the present. If he gets injured, obviously move them down. I like them more than the Bears at the present time.

It could be a toss up between the bears/bucs/seahawks. I just like the Cards more than all of them right now. They've held down the best of the best at RB so far this year (Parker/Alexander/Gore, of all people Brian Leonard got 100 yards against them).

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 11:01 PM

QUOTE (Bears_Man2 @ Oct 7 2007, 10:54 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:48 PM)

What if they come back and beat the Packers tonight? Would that change your mind?

You may be right. I think the Bears are more talented, their defense should get relatively healthy soon, and I think Griese will play a little better once he gets comfortable with his receivers. The Cards D is definitely improved, yet they almost lost to the Rams who many believe are the worst team in football. Plus, Warner is always an injury waiting to happen, which would put the team in whose hands?

It's possible they come back here. Wouldn't change my mind that the Cardinals are better right now though.

I really like what the Cardinals have done this year thus far. You're right the Cardinals are a Warner injury away from being toast. I just rank based on the present. If he gets injured, obviously move them down. I like them more than the Bears at the present time.

It could be a toss up between the bears/bucs/seahawks. I just like the Cards more than all of them right now.

Good points.

Let me clear up the confusion on the thought process here. Because I play in playoff dynasty leagues, I'm ranking more on odds of making the playoffs and doing some damage once there as opposed to who has a better team in Week 5.

awesomeness

Oct 7 2007, 11:01 PM

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:44 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 09:24 PM)

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:17 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

so i take it you also predicted that kenton kieth was going to have success in the NFL in june of this year?

Like I said, any RB who starts for the Colts is a good option for your FF squad.

Keith won the backup role. Addai got hurt. Keith will be a good option until Addai gets healthy.

Does this make him a great talent or a good dynasty buy? No. He'll have to show me a lot more before I consider him a decent long-term player. As of now he's nothing more than a handcuff.

Who in june of this year predicted that Kenton Keith was gonna start a game for the Colts when he was 3rd on the depth chart(if that high) at the time? Basically you are trying to make my prediction sound as if it as nothing. Basically with my first post today, i was just saying that i was the first one on FBG to say Kenton Keith was gonna have FF relevance. I dont understand what you think the problem is...

EBF

Oct 7 2007, 11:10 PM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 10:01 PM)

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:44 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 09:24 PM)

QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 7 2007, 07:17 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 7 2007, 09:09 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 07:29 PM)

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 02:51 PM)

loving the thread, goodwork

I see big things for kenton keith

I warned you all.....

Yes...yes you did.



Now what's his post-Week 5 value?

I'm convinced that almost any RB on an NFL roster could be productive on the Colts. Keith was having a pretty marginal day until he started to break some longer runs in garbage time. He has some value as long as he remains Addai's backup, but he's not a guy I'd be tripping over myself to acquire ala Michael Turner.

so i take it you also predicted that kenton kieth was going to have success in the NFL in june of this year?

Like I said, any RB who starts for the Colts is a good option for your FF squad.

Keith won the backup role. Addai got hurt. Keith will be a good option until Addai gets healthy.

Does this make him a great talent or a good dynasty buy? No. He'll have to show me a lot more before I consider him a decent long-term player. As of now he's nothing more than a handcuff.

Who in june of this year predicted that Kenton Keith was gonna start a game for the Colts when he was 3rd on the depth chart(if that high) at the time? Basically you are trying to make my prediction sound as if it as nothing. Basically with my first post today, i was just saying that i was the first one on FBG to say Kenton Keith was gonna have FF relevance. I dont understand what you think the problem is...

F&L asked what Kenton Keith's value is moving forward. I responded with an opinion. You've somehow twisted that into me "trying to make your prediction sound as if it is nothing." Get a grip. I wasn't even talking about your prediction until you dragged it into the discussion.

You were the first person on FBG to tout Keith? Congratulations. Here's a gold star. Now can we resume the discussion of his value or do we have to stop every time his name is mentioned and praise you for your unparalleled prescience?

Fear & Loathing

Oct 7 2007, 11:29 PM

Greg Olsen with a breakout game?

Griese has looked to him throughout the 2nd half...and he's made a couple of plays.

awesomeness

Oct 7 2007, 11:30 PM

I didn't know exactly what the purpose of your original post was, i thought it referred to my first post. The reason why i didnt know this posts purpose was because i thought F&L's respone to my post was a joke, as it is pretty clear what keith's value is.

QUOTE

Here's a gold star.

thanks for this though.

EBF

Oct 7 2007, 11:36 PM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 10:30 PM)

I didn't know exactly what the purpose of your original post was, i thought it referred to my first post. The reason why i didnt know this posts purpose was because i thought F&L's respone to my post was a joke, as it is pretty clear what keith's value is.

QUOTE

Here's a gold star.

thanks for this though.

No problem.

Didn't mean to sound like a jerk. I just didn't see the point of your replies.

Ariakis

Oct 8 2007, 12:04 AM

QUOTE (awesomeness @ Oct 7 2007, 10:01 PM)

Who in june of this year predicted that Kenton Keith was gonna start a game for the Colts when he was 3rd on the depth chart(if that high) at the time? Basically you are trying to make my prediction sound as if it as nothing. Basically with my first post today, i was just saying that i was the first one on FBG to say Kenton Keith was gonna have FF relevance. I dont understand what you think the problem is...

Eh? As soon as Keith was announced as the handcuff to Addai it was fairly obvious he would have value if only as injury protection and quite possibly in an RBBC. The RBBC angle hasn't played out so far (may going forward if the team wants to limit Addai's touches to keep him healthy) however the injury angle has paid great dividends to those that stashed him. I don't think anyone in any of my 9 money leagues had him benched so he wasn't much of a secret. He's owned in every league and started in once Addai was confirmed to be out.

Now, if you are saying that you predicted Keith would have value before he was the RB2 that's something else ... can I bump my post around the NFL draft suggesting that Henry is one strike away and carries more risk than people realize? You post enough stuff and eventually you'll hit ... especially in a year when so many top fantasy players are struggling or hurting.

Steelers22

Oct 8 2007, 02:46 PM

let me ask you a question
do you think I should deal reggie bush and chris cooley for eric johnson and frank gore? I am leaning towards doing the deal but I am unsure of what to expect from gore. my roster is below this is a 16 team dynasty league by the way

QB-Rivers, Pennington, Clemens
RB-Willie Parker, Reggie Bush, Dominic Rhodes, Brian Leonard, Aaron stecker
WR-TJ Housh, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe, Jerricho Cotchery, Jacoby Jones, DJ Hackett
TE-Cooley (could pick up jeff king to replace him as well)
DEF-Seattle
K-Kaeding

Fear & Loathing

Oct 8 2007, 02:49 PM

Unlike the rest of us who have non-football jobs, Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal gets to watch a lot of tape on the games he didn't catch while they were going on Sunday. Since I only have access to the same technology as the grumpy old man in the Direct TV commercials for NFL Sunday Ticket, I only get to watch the games in my market. If you're like me, you have to rely on the observations of others to fill in the gray areas on most players.

With that in mind, I thought Rosenthal had some interesting thoughts on Drew Brees today:

QUOTE

The New Orleans Saints know drama. When they inspire, they do it with historic panache. When they collapse, they do it completely. Drew Brees is the symbol of this year's frustration; he's gone from NFL Man of the Year to the Biggest Fantasy Bust of the 2007.

Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson owners might not agree, but chew on these Brees numbers: 5.2 YPA (dead last in the NFL), one touchdown, nine Iinterceptions, and two fumbles lost.

All the drops by Saints receivers Sunday were scapegoated because they came late in the game. And while Brees had plenty of bad luck (two touchdowns called back, a tipped pick, dropped passes) he also made some terrible throws like he has all season. Brees missed open receivers and was lucky that more passes weren't picked off. The Saints offense got the ball in field goal range with a chance to win the game and they moved the ball one yard. The offense is all dinks and dunks, perhaps because of Brees' limitations.

The Fox commenters Sunday mentioned that Brees' arm strength appeared off, a growing belief around the league. That same arm, which lifted an entire region of fans and fantasy owners with such a magical ride last year, looks tired.

On the one hand, he was this close to 300+ yards and 2 TDs if not for egregious drops and penalties. On the other hand, he's thrown 1 TD to go with 9 picks and a league worse 5.2 yards per attempt on the season. So is he a bounceback candidate? Not if the whispers about his arm strength being off are grounded in truth.

gianmarco

Oct 8 2007, 10:23 PM

from Rotoworld: Saints coach Sean Payton said Monday that the team will use a rotation at the receiver position opposite Marques Colston moving forward.

Devery Henderson had a big drop in Sunday's loss and may have lost his starting job to Lance Moore. David Patten, Terrance Copper, and eventually first-round pick Robert Meachem could also be a part of the committee.



Not surprised in the least. Hopefully we won't have to see Henderson much longer. We'll just have to see who plays himself into the #2 spot. May be nobody this year at the rate they're going.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 8 2007, 11:02 PM

I missed the first half of the game tonight. Was Romo as bad as the stats say he was? Worse?

Aberration?

valhallan

Oct 8 2007, 11:11 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 8 2007, 11:02 PM)

I missed the first half of the game tonight. Was Romo as bad as the stats say he was? Worse?

Aberration?

He was bad but not Grossman bad. Buffalo has been getting serious pressure from the front 4 all night and making him throw into coverage.

ETA: OK, maybe it is Grossman bad

Fear & Loathing

Oct 8 2007, 11:29 PM

QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 8 2007, 11:11 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 8 2007, 11:02 PM)

I missed the first half of the game tonight. Was Romo as bad as the stats say he was? Worse?

Aberration?

He was bad but not Grossman bad. Buffalo has been getting serious pressure from the front 4 all night and making him throw into coverage.

Thanks, Valhallan.

Oops. There goes another one.

I was about to renounce Lee Evans, but I can't help it. I still him. I don't particularly love him the rest of this season, but I'd still target him if I was out of the playoff hunt this year. As it is, I'm a contender with a playoff chip whom I value more than other teams. I guess I'll hold onto him. Never sell low unless your gut tells you the guy sucks.

As bad as that redzone interception was from Trent Edwards, I still like him a lot more than Losman.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 8 2007, 11:59 PM

Nick Folk =

Rookie kicker with stones. He nailed a facsimile of the first kick on the second kick.

crnerblitz

Oct 9 2007, 07:28 PM

Nice work here F&L. Thanks for adding to the pool.

:sehorn:

new-guru

Oct 10 2007, 02:44 PM

Do you still feel that LJ and R. Bush should be that High?

How many years do you think LJ has left?

Fear & Loathing

Oct 10 2007, 03:19 PM

QUOTE (new-guru @ Oct 10 2007, 02:44 PM)

Do you still feel that LJ and R. Bush should be that High?

How many years do you think LJ has left?

Good question. I debated on putting both Ronnie Brown and Addai ahead of them. You know how I feel about Ronnie Brown, so I'd rather have him if I was only considering my own teams. But I generally take more chances with my teams than I do with these rankings because I don't have to worry about letting myself down (or telling myself: "I told you so").

On LJ's ranking, I've decided to look ahead at his coming schedule as opposed to looking at his no-show against a tough Jags defense. I'm relying on some anticipation here because I think LJ will blow up against the Bengals and regain quite a bit of lost value.

How many years does he have left? I don't know. I've made my feelings clear on the future of the Chiefs' offense, but LJ and Bowe could be two bright spots to build around if they can find a QB. On the positive side, LJ wasn't used much early in his career. On the downside, he's older than many believe and he's been run into the ground the past few seasons. I worry that he'll lose explosiveness (if he hasn't already, which is a distinct possibility), but he should remain effective as long as he's healthy. Honestly, this week's game could decide a lot for me. If he's still an elite RB, he has to come up big against a creampuff, no backbone defense like the Bengals. If he doesn't show this week, then that says a lot to me about his future value.

Many of the guys around these boards think more highly of Bush than I do, but I'm giving him a chance to show something while the Saints ride him with Deuce out. Again, he's another RB where I've decided to give him a window of a couple weeks to show or go. I've had some doubts about his strength as a pure runner, and they haven't gone away yet. If he doesn't come up big soon, the rushing doubts are going to win out over his more dynamic attributes. It probably shouldn't go unmentioned that he's still the RB with the biggest discrepancy between PPR leagues and yardage/TD leagues.

You could make a good case for Addai to be higher, but I think it's pretty clear that Kenton Keith can do a pretty good Addai impersonation and may work his way into the mix more often...not to steal the job, but to provide rest for Addai in a Sammy Morris/Maroney or Portis/Betts kind of situation.

I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.

kremenull

Oct 10 2007, 04:23 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 8 2007, 11:49 AM)

Unlike the rest of us who have non-football jobs, Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal gets to watch a lot of tape on the games he didn't catch while they were going on Sunday. Since I only have access to the same technology as the grumpy old man in the Direct TV commercials for NFL Sunday Ticket, I only get to watch the games in my market. If you're like me, you have to rely on the observations of others to fill in the gray areas on most players.

With that in mind, I thought Rosenthal had some interesting thoughts on Drew Brees today:

QUOTE

The New Orleans Saints know drama. When they inspire, they do it with historic panache. When they collapse, they do it completely. Drew Brees is the symbol of this year's frustration; he's gone from NFL Man of the Year to the Biggest Fantasy Bust of the 2007.

Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson owners might not agree, but chew on these Brees numbers: 5.2 YPA (dead last in the NFL), one touchdown, nine Iinterceptions, and two fumbles lost.

All the drops by Saints receivers Sunday were scapegoated because they came late in the game. And while Brees had plenty of bad luck (two touchdowns called back, a tipped pick, dropped passes) he also made some terrible throws like he has all season. Brees missed open receivers and was lucky that more passes weren't picked off. The Saints offense got the ball in field goal range with a chance to win the game and they moved the ball one yard. The offense is all dinks and dunks, perhaps because of Brees' limitations.

The Fox commenters Sunday mentioned that Brees' arm strength appeared off, a growing belief around the league. That same arm, which lifted an entire region of fans and fantasy owners with such a magical ride last year, looks tired.

On the one hand, he was this close to 300+ yards and 2 TDs if not for egregious drops and penalties. On the other hand, he's thrown 1 TD to go with 9 picks and a league worse 5.2 yards per attempt on the season. So is he a bounceback candidate? Not if the whispers about his arm strength being off are grounded in truth.

I suspected an arm strength issue after Week 1..........aside from the mistaken reference to the elbow injury (non-throwing arm I found out), I had a strong sense that something was really not right with this guy from Day 1 this season

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7289690

Fear & Loathing

Oct 10 2007, 09:41 PM

QUOTE (kremenull @ Oct 10 2007, 04:23 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 8 2007, 11:49 AM)

Unlike the rest of us who have non-football jobs, Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal gets to watch a lot of tape on the games he didn't catch while they were going on Sunday. Since I only have access to the same technology as the grumpy old man in the Direct TV commercials for NFL Sunday Ticket, I only get to watch the games in my market. If you're like me, you have to rely on the observations of others to fill in the gray areas on most players.

With that in mind, I thought Rosenthal had some interesting thoughts on Drew Brees today:

QUOTE

The New Orleans Saints know drama. When they inspire, they do it with historic panache. When they collapse, they do it completely. Drew Brees is the symbol of this year's frustration; he's gone from NFL Man of the Year to the Biggest Fantasy Bust of the 2007.

Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson owners might not agree, but chew on these Brees numbers: 5.2 YPA (dead last in the NFL), one touchdown, nine Iinterceptions, and two fumbles lost.

All the drops by Saints receivers Sunday were scapegoated because they came late in the game. And while Brees had plenty of bad luck (two touchdowns called back, a tipped pick, dropped passes) he also made some terrible throws like he has all season. Brees missed open receivers and was lucky that more passes weren't picked off. The Saints offense got the ball in field goal range with a chance to win the game and they moved the ball one yard. The offense is all dinks and dunks, perhaps because of Brees' limitations.

The Fox commenters Sunday mentioned that Brees' arm strength appeared off, a growing belief around the league. That same arm, which lifted an entire region of fans and fantasy owners with such a magical ride last year, looks tired.

On the one hand, he was this close to 300+ yards and 2 TDs if not for egregious drops and penalties. On the other hand, he's thrown 1 TD to go with 9 picks and a league worse 5.2 yards per attempt on the season. So is he a bounceback candidate? Not if the whispers about his arm strength being off are grounded in truth.

I suspected an arm strength issue after Week 1..........aside from the mistaken reference to the elbow injury (non-throwing arm I found out), I had a strong sense that something was really not right with this guy from Day 1 this season

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7289690

So if the injury was to the non-throwing arm, what we're really talking about is speculation of a "tired arm" instead? Like a stage a major league pitcher goes through at times?

I haven't been able to watch him that closely this year. Does his arm really look that much weaker than last season? It's hard to believe something as amorphous as a tired arm would cause such a drastic dropoff. It's also hard to believe that age or common wear & tear would cause such a precipitous falloff in less than a year.

Thinking out loud here....Pennington had more than one arm injury and each made his arm weaker than it was previously. Throw in the compound effects of losing arm strength with age on top of that, and I can see how he had a reached a point of not being able to afford further deterioration in arm strength. Brees, on the other hand, had just the one arm injury to his throwing shoulder and didn't appear to suffer any deterioration at all last season. Though neither Pennington nor Brees were known for having cannons before their injuries, they don't seem like analogous cases after the injuries. I just can't believe Brees' arm would deteriorate that quickly unless he has a fresh injury or what would seem to be an ephemeral "tired arm."

I don't know what to think about Brees except that he doesn't appear to be the same quarterback this year as he was last year. Will he bounce back after he passes through this tired arm stage, or will he remain unstartable until we receive confirmation down the road that he has been, in fact, attempting to play through an arm injury? I'll let the Brees owners deal with that one...

gianmarco

Oct 10 2007, 09:45 PM

The main reason I don't think the problem is with Brees himself as far as his arm or mechanics or what not is that during the preseason, the guy was completing virtually every pass with ease. What's different now? I still contend it's the O-Line, although I don't have a particular reason why. But if it were something health-related where the problem was with him making the throws, I don't buy that he was able to do it so well even against sub-par defenses for 4 preseason games and then all of a sudden had a huge setback starting week 1 of the season.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 10 2007, 10:34 PM

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 10 2007, 09:45 PM)

The main reason I don't think the problem is with Brees himself as far as his arm or mechanics or what not is that during the preseason, the guy was completing virtually every pass with ease. What's different now? I still contend it's the O-Line, although I don't have a particular reason why. But if it were something health-related where the problem was with him making the throws, I don't buy that he was able to do it so well even against sub-par defenses for 4 preseason games and then all of a sudden had a huge setback starting week 1 of the season.

We're all speculating, but it's nice to hear from somebody who follows the team and sees them play regularly. Your answer makes more sense to me, and it's probably a combination of things. When a significant part of the offense plays poorly, it affects the whole unit.

When the whole offense is running together like a well-oiled machine, you get last year's Saints. When one or two parts fail, the whole unit stutters and you get this year's Saints.

valhallan

Oct 10 2007, 10:57 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 10 2007, 10:34 PM)

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 10 2007, 09:45 PM)

The main reason I don't think the problem is with Brees himself as far as his arm or mechanics or what not is that during the preseason, the guy was completing virtually every pass with ease. What's different now? I still contend it's the O-Line, although I don't have a particular reason why. But if it were something health-related where the problem was with him making the throws, I don't buy that he was able to do it so well even against sub-par defenses for 4 preseason games and then all of a sudden had a huge setback starting week 1 of the season.

We're all speculating, but it's nice to hear from somebody who follows the team and sees them play regularly. Your answer makes more sense to me, and it's probably a combination of things. When a significant part of the offense plays poorly, it affects the whole unit.

When the whole offense is running together like a well-oiled machine, you get last year's Saints. When one or two parts fail, the whole unit stutters and you get this year's Saints.

Many Saints fans, myself included, were not high on the hiring of Sean Payton prior to last season. He had a history of failure as an offensive playcaller in New York and Dallas, so why would he fare any better as a head coach? Well, some would say he proved us wrong last year but I happen to think much of the success the Saints had was due to a combination of remarkable rookie talent (Bush, Colston, and Jahri Evans at guard) that NFL teams weren't ready for and a new quarterback who was smart enough to pickup Payton's ideas quickly. Now we're in season 2 and NFL defenses have the book on these new Saints players and Payton schemes and they're ripping through the offensive line on nearly every play, whether it's a run or pass. And true to his reputation, Payton has failed to adjust to what defenses are doing. I'm not sure things will improve any time soon.

It's worth noting, however, that the Saints first three opponents (Ind, TB, Ten) are now a combined 11-3 with two of those loses coming to each other (Ind beat both Ten and TB). Those teams are also all in the top 10 of NFL defenses.

As for last week, the Saints very much outplayed the Panthers but committed extremely costly penalties (one negated a touchdown) and had several horrendous drops and turnovers.

gianmarco

Oct 10 2007, 11:43 PM

QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 10 2007, 09:57 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 10 2007, 10:34 PM)

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 10 2007, 09:45 PM)

The main reason I don't think the problem is with Brees himself as far as his arm or mechanics or what not is that during the preseason, the guy was completing virtually every pass with ease. What's different now? I still contend it's the O-Line, although I don't have a particular reason why. But if it were something health-related where the problem was with him making the throws, I don't buy that he was able to do it so well even against sub-par defenses for 4 preseason games and then all of a sudden had a huge setback starting week 1 of the season.

We're all speculating, but it's nice to hear from somebody who follows the team and sees them play regularly. Your answer makes more sense to me, and it's probably a combination of things. When a significant part of the offense plays poorly, it affects the whole unit.

When the whole offense is running together like a well-oiled machine, you get last year's Saints. When one or two parts fail, the whole unit stutters and you get this year's Saints.

Many Saints fans, myself included, were not high on the hiring of Sean Payton prior to last season. He had a history of failure as an offensive playcaller in New York and Dallas, so why would he fare any better as a head coach? Well, some would say he proved us wrong last year but I happen to think much of the success the Saints had was due to a combination of remarkable rookie talent (Bush, Colston, and Jahri Evans at guard) that NFL teams weren't ready for and a new quarterback who was smart enough to pickup Payton's ideas quickly. Now we're in season 2 and NFL defenses have the book on these new Saints players and Payton schemes and they're ripping through the offensive line on nearly every play, whether it's a run or pass. And true to his reputation, Payton has failed to adjust to what defenses are doing. I'm not sure things will improve any time soon.

It's worth noting, however, that the Saints first three opponents (Ind, TB, Ten) are now a combined 11-3 with two of those loses coming to each other (Ind beat both Ten and TB). Those teams are also all in the top 10 of NFL defenses.

As for last week, the Saints very much outplayed the Panthers but committed extremely costly penalties (one negated a touchdown) and had several horrendous drops and turnovers.

I gotta tell you, that bolded stuff up there is what makes me actually have hope. In the past, the Saints have been mediocre with limited talent and each week was just hoping for that one win without much else. But, as bad as an 0-4 start looks, those first 3 games were against pretty solid teams and last week the Saints should have easily won. Between missed kicks and dropped passes, the sloppy play cost them. Now, there's no excuse for that, but my point is that the overall talent and makeup of the team isn't going in the wrong direction. Most likely too late for this year as far as the playoffs go, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see NO put together a string of wins and become competitive. I really still think it's a few small adjustments that need to be made to make a very large difference. And again, part of that is taking Devery out and putting in Moore. I'm glad to see that Payton finally stated the same thing himself and given his track record last year of putting Colston in as a rookie, I could see him doing the same with Moore. It's not too late for guys like Brees and Colston yet.

new-guru

Oct 11 2007, 12:06 AM

I have been looking at Dallas and their running backs. Who is their running backfor the future?

Who will they try to keep?
Isn't JJ's contract up this year?

I love the agressive way Barber runs!

Fear & Loathing

Oct 11 2007, 02:32 AM

QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 10 2007, 11:43 PM)

QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 10 2007, 09:57 PM)

Many Saints fans, myself included, were not high on the hiring of Sean Payton prior to last season. He had a history of failure as an offensive playcaller in New York and Dallas, so why would he fare any better as a head coach? Well, some would say he proved us wrong last year but I happen to think much of the success the Saints had was due to a combination of remarkable rookie talent (Bush, Colston, and Jahri Evans at guard) that NFL teams weren't ready for and a new quarterback who was smart enough to pickup Payton's ideas quickly. Now we're in season 2 and NFL defenses have the book on these new Saints players and Payton schemes and they're ripping through the offensive line on nearly every play, whether it's a run or pass. And true to his reputation, Payton has failed to adjust to what defenses are doing. I'm not sure things will improve any time soon.

It's worth noting, however, that the Saints first three opponents (Ind, TB, Ten) are now a combined 11-3 with two of those loses coming to each other (Ind beat both Ten and TB). Those teams are also all in the top 10 of NFL defenses.

As for last week, the Saints very much outplayed the Panthers but committed extremely costly penalties (one negated a touchdown) and had several horrendous drops and turnovers.

I gotta tell you, that bolded stuff up there is what makes me actually have hope. In the past, the Saints have been mediocre with limited talent and each week was just hoping for that one win without much else. But, as bad as an 0-4 start looks, those first 3 games were against pretty solid teams and last week the Saints should have easily won. Between missed kicks and dropped passes, the sloppy play cost them. Now, there's no excuse for that, but my point is that the overall talent and makeup of the team isn't going in the wrong direction. Most likely too late for this year as far as the playoffs go, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see NO put together a string of wins and become competitive. I really still think it's a few small adjustments that need to be made to make a very large difference. And again, part of that is taking Devery out and putting in Moore. I'm glad to see that Payton finally stated the same thing himself and given his track record last year of putting Colston in as a rookie, I could see him doing the same with Moore. It's not too late for guys like Brees and Colston yet.

I agree on the bolded items. I hadn't taken much of that into account. It's nice to have knowledgeable homers around here to fill us in.

I just read this short blurb from Football Outsiders about the Saints/Panthers game this past weekend, and it looks like you guys pretty much have all their points covered. Nicely done.

QUOTE

Carolina Panthers 16 at New Orleans Saints 13

Mike Tanier: Saints in a nutshell:

* The offensive tackles aren’t playing well.
* Everyone is dropping passes.
* The game plans are really fussy. All of the spread-formation, pick-and-wipe plays put a lot of pressure on Brees and the receivers to execute perfectly.
* The receivers just aren’t that good. We canonized Colston a little early last year.

I got picked apart on a couple of radio shows for putting Sean Payton and Eric Mangini in a 10th place tie for Best Coaching Staff on FOX this summer. I defended myself by saying that the first year is easy: Your scheme is new to opponents; your style is new to the players. The NFL is built for teams to jump out and go 10-6 after a bad year if they have a decent coach and a few good players. Talk to me when you sustain some success. And while I am impressed by both Payton and Mangini, that’s where I am at now: Show me how you bounce back, how you stop the bleeding. I expected more from the Saints this week.

Aaron Schatz: I don’t know if we quite “canonized” Colston, but I don’t think it was too early. He’s the only guy on that offense playing well this year. He had 18.3% DVOA and 69% catch rate through the first three games. It’s not his fault the offensive line can’t block.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 14 2007, 01:50 AM

QUOTE (new-guru @ Oct 11 2007, 12:06 AM)

I have been looking at Dallas and their running backs. Who is their running backfor the future?

Who will they try to keep?
Isn't JJ's contract up this year?

Rotoworld says Julius Jones signed a 6-year contract in 2004, but I've read in multiple places that he is an unrestricted free agent after this season...so I'm going to stay with that assumption. Wikipedia says: "Julius will be entering the final year in his four-year contract in 2007 and his future with the team remains to be seen."

Assuming that Jones is a free agent, I doubt he will be back. It's clear that Dallas does not consider him the future, and his production can easily be replaced. Barber has simply outproduced him the last couple of seasons.

Rotoworld also has Barber as a restricted free agent after the season. If that's correct, he could sign an offer sheet with another team. If we assume that Barber is brought back and Jones is not, does it follow that Barber becomes the every down workhorse? I don't think it necessarily does. I think the Cowboys brass believes Barber is best utilized in the role he's been filling. Could he take on more responsibility and garner more touches in a timeshare with a lesser back? Sure. If they bring in a Chris Brown/DeShaun Foster type of vet or pick up a non-1st rounder in the draft, then I think Barber's production could see a significant jump. Of course, if they get their hands on a guy like McFadden then all bets are off.

My best guess is that Jones will be gone and Barber will pick up some portion of Jones' production after he leaves.

Any Dallas s with a good read on the Cowboys RB situation beyond this season?

Fear & Loathing

Oct 14 2007, 01:16 PM

In-game notes from the 1:00 Sunday games week 6. I don't know how long I'll be able to do this, but here goes:

Boller starts for the Ravens. How well does he need to play to keep the job? Obviously, a routine day won’t cause any hiccups in Baltimore. But what if he goes 25 for 33 with 300+ yards, 2 TDs, and 8.5 YPA? What if he goes 18 for 22 with 250 yards, 2 long TDs, high YPA? What if the offense functions like a high octane unit instead of a dink and dunk unit.

No, I don’t think Boller is that good. And McNair has been the ultimate warrior throughout his career, but he just doesn’t offer enough to the offense that will allow the Ravens to beat the upper echelon teams. Boller might not be the answer, but it’s clear that McNair no longer is.

Thomas Jones 2 rushes for 47 yards in the first drive. He's already at his average yards per game. Up to 96 yards in the 1st half. McNabb to Kevin Curtis for a 75-yard TD. Curtis breaks a poor tackle and takes it 50 yards to the house. Here we go again...feast or famine. Meet the new Lee Evans. Looks like the good McNabb showed up today...I guess the Jets defense will do that for you.

The Jason Wright pick up has already paid dividends. 3 rushes for 3 yards, but 1 TD. Jerome Harrison sighting. 3 rushes for 28 yards on back-to-back-to-back carries. Derek Anderson punches it in from 1 yard out. Ronnie Brown is the whole offense for the Dolphins again. I don't care...Cam Cameron is still a dolt. Braylon Edwards with a TD -- I guess he is going to do this every week. How long will Anderson hold off Quinn, and what happens to Edwards' weekly production when Quinn does take over?

KC able to move the ball against the Bengals, as predicted. Only get 3 points...also as predicted. The Housh! The Housh! The Housh is on fire! Palmer to Houshmandzadeh for 47 yards and a TD! Huard to Gonzo for a 3-yard TD. LJ trucking all over the Bengals D, and there goes a TD. The Chiefs are lucky Croyle didn't start this game...Palmer and Bengals passing offense being bottled up in this game. Jared Allen destroyed injured Levi Jones and drove him out of the game after 2.5 sacks early.

Early 1st Qtr, Adrian Peterson: 3 rushes for 27 yards. Chester Taylor: 3 rushes for 13 yards. Adrian Peterson will get his 100 combined again. I just hope he doesn't get a chair upside the head for his efforts. Devin Hester 89-yard punt-return homerun! I the Bears D/Special Teams. Troy Williamson, yes Troy Williamson, answers with a 60-yard TD from Tarvaris. Vikings' safety falls down, and Griese comes right back with a 39-yard TD as Berrian finally reaches the end zone this year. Adrian Peterson [ADP] 67 yard TD . Fantasy Monster . Who is the most explosive RB in the game? It's Adrian Peterson. 73-yard TD on the heels of the previous 67-yarder. Most talented RB to come into the league since...whom? Bo?

Favre with a perfect pass to hit Donald Lee in stride across the middle of the field...Lee bounces off Redskins like a pinball and takes it 40 more yards to the 2 yard line. DeShawn Wynn in with the goal-line TD. Campbell leading the 'Skins down deep in Packers territory...Campbell with an 8-yard-scrambling TD after Portis was denied. Chris Cooley blowing up today: 7 for 97 and a TD in the 1st half. That's 4 straight games with a TD. I have him too low in the rankings.

Fred Taylor: 1 carry for 76 yards? I thought he was supposed to be gimpy with a fragile groin. Kevin Walter with all 60 yards receiving for the Texans. Here comes Owen Daniels with 40+ yards of his own...Schaub continues to look good. Falcons fans continue to send Vick their tokens of appreciation...Schaub to the (re)juvenated Andre Davis for his allotted TD. Wait, what happened? NFL.com had the Texans with a TD ten minute agos, but now it's gone. Still a 3-0 ballgame...but the Texans are driving again. Total points machine Kris Brown with another field goal. 6-0 Texans. How boring are the Jags? Two TDs

Last week, I wrote that the Ravens D was not nearly as stout as previous editions. Whoops. It is Gus Frerotte, but 1 for 6 for 11 yards and 2 picks is embarrassing. And they're still a death trap for all fantasy running backs. Rams get the ball on a turnover deep in Ravens territory. A penalty, a negative rushing play and an incomplete pass push Wilkins FG attempt back a few yards, and he misses the 35 yarder. McGahee finds the end zone, but you had to figure that was coming. He was way overdue.

If you got stuck watching Tampa Bay / Tennessee, my condolences. Hey, Galloway with a 69-yard TD!

Alright, I have to leave for awhile, but Adrian Peterson is a joke. Another long TD run. Over 230 yards on 16 carries with 3 long TDs. Maybe they should get the ball to Chester Taylor more.

Did I mention, I Adrian Peterson?

Ariakis

Oct 14 2007, 01:44 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 14 2007, 12:50 AM)

Any Dallas s with a good read on the Cowboys RB situation beyond this season?

I wouldn't be surprised if they let JJ go and depending on the tender MB3 would remain similar to why Turner remained with the Chargers. Since they have 2 #1 picks thanks to Cleveland I could easily see them using one on a RB. That said, if an RBBC of MB3 and a random decent RB works I could see them bringing back JJ or similar and using their picks elsewhere.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 14 2007, 03:27 PM

QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ May 3 2007, 10:22 AM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 1 2007, 08:12 PM)

QUOTE (DocT @ May 1 2007, 09:14 PM)

Dearest F&L,

Where do you rank AP in your RB rankings? Between what guys would you estimate?

I hope to have the rankings updated some time this week...and a decent response to MOP (a proper thanks at the very least).

Right now, I'd say my RB rankings are going to look like this:

1. L.Tomlinson
2. S.Jackson
3. L.Johnson
4. R.Bush
5. F.Gore
6. A.Peterson
7. L.Maroney
8. B.Westbrook
9. J.Addai
10 on -- Not sure yet...

Why do 1st yr Rookies always get ranked higher than 2nd yr studs that are on great teams
I see it every ####ing year and it makes me laugh

<------------------ Kellys Heroes

Chunky Soup

Oct 14 2007, 04:43 PM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 14 2007, 03:27 PM)

QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ May 3 2007, 10:22 AM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 1 2007, 08:12 PM)

QUOTE (DocT @ May 1 2007, 09:14 PM)

Dearest F&L,

Where do you rank AP in your RB rankings? Between what guys would you estimate?

I hope to have the rankings updated some time this week...and a decent response to MOP (a proper thanks at the very least).

Right now, I'd say my RB rankings are going to look like this:

1. L.Tomlinson
2. S.Jackson
3. L.Johnson
4. R.Bush
5. F.Gore
6. A.Peterson
7. L.Maroney
8. B.Westbrook
9. J.Addai
10 on -- Not sure yet...

Why do 1st yr Rookies always get ranked higher than 2nd yr studs that are on great teams
I see it every ####ing year and it makes me laugh

<------------------ Kellys Heroes

Burning Sensation

Oct 14 2007, 05:47 PM

Ive been known to overvalue youth/potential, but i feel pretty safe in saying that i would take AP #1 overall in a dynasty draft that took place today.

Papa Georgio

Oct 14 2007, 08:18 PM

Fear & Loathing

Oct 15 2007, 12:15 AM

QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Oct 14 2007, 05:47 PM)

Ive been known to overvalue youth/potential, but i feel pretty safe in saying that i would take AP #1 overall in a dynasty draft that took place today.

Absolutely. I moved Peterson up to 98 on RB rankings at 3:00 this afternoon and seriously debated leapfrogging LT2 before realizing that Tomlinson can do that every week. I personally would take Peterson because I like to gamble, and I obviously believe in the talent. But Tomlinson has earned the #1 spot, and he backed it up this afternoon. Still, dynasty leagues -- you could make a case for the 22 year old who scores from anywhere on the field. And if you still haven't seen the Vikings play this year, let's put this into Cliffs' Notes version:

Adrian Peterson is simply the best player on the field. He's more talented, he's bigger, he's stronger, he's faster, and he's more explosive. He's the new Dickerson.

Adrian Peterson = acceleration.

Edit to add: I just now saw the kickoff return by ADP after the Bears tied at 31. ADP isn't just a great runner, he's an awesome football player and a competitor. Great return to put the Vikes in position to win the game.

Note to Chilress: you might not want your franchise returning kicks much longer.

Kitrick Taylor

Oct 15 2007, 12:43 PM

Hi F&L,

Love the thread and the rankings. Wanted to point out something that you may want to consider regarding Houshmandzadeh who you have rated as the #12 WR and Chad Johnson who you have rated #1.

In a typical performance non-ppr league (6pts per TD, 1 pt per 10yards), here's the breakdown between the two.

Last 10 weeks of 2005
2005
Houshmandzadeh 101 points total, with 4 head to head victories over Chad.
CJ 118 points total with 5 victories.

2006 in 14 games where both played.
Housh 156 points, 10 victories
CJ 156 points, 4 victories

2007 5 games so far.
Housh 91 points, 3 victories
CJ 73 points 2 victories

So in the last 29 games in which both have played, Houshmandzadeh has 348 points, and 17 head to head victories. CJ has 347 points and 11 victories. (1 tie).

I understand that explosive weeks have a determining factor as well. Chad has shown that he can go for over 30 points. (3 times since week 7 of '05). Housh has never done that. However, both of the players have broken 20 points a total of four times.

Both of these guys are the same age. Shouldn't really be a factor there. Houshmandzadeh missed the first two games of 2006 due to injury, whereas CJ hasn't missed any games during the sample time frame. Which is a bit of an advantage for CJ.

Obviously, you are entitled to having your own opinion regarding these players. I have no problem with that. I just think that over a large sample size, the stats show that you are better off having Houshmandzadeh.

Fear & Loathing

Oct 16 2007, 01:24 AM

QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 15 2007, 12:43 PM)

Hi F&L,

Love the thread and the rankings. Wanted to point out something that you may want to consider regarding Houshmandzadeh who you have rated as the #12 WR and Chad Johnson who you have rated #1.

In a typical performance non-ppr league (6pts per TD, 1 pt per 10yards), here's the breakdown between the two.

Last 10 weeks of 2005
2005
Houshmandzadeh 101 points total, with 4 head to head victories over Chad.
CJ 118 points total with 5 victories.

2006 in 14 games where both played.
Housh 156 points, 10 victories
CJ 156 points, 4 victories

2007 5 games so far.
Housh 91 points, 3 victories
CJ 73 points 2 victories

So in the last 29 games in which both have played, Houshmandzadeh has 348 points, and 17 head to head victories. CJ has 347 points and 11 victories. (1 tie).

I understand that explosive weeks have a determining factor as well. Chad has shown that he can go for over 30 points. (3 times since week 7 of '05). Housh has never done that. However, both of the players have broken 20 points a total of four times.

Both of these guys are the same age. Shouldn't really be a factor there. Houshmandzadeh missed the first two games of 2006 due to injury, whereas CJ hasn't missed any games during the sample time frame. Which is a bit of an advantage for CJ.

Obviously, you are entitled to having your own opinion regarding these players. I have no problem with that. I just think that over a large sample size, the stats show that you are better off having Houshmandzadeh.

Thank you and nice work on the stats. But let's not overlook the fact that you're doing what everybody does with stats. You're fudging them to suit your case. What if your sample size goes back past 29 games? Why the cut-off at 29 games? Why not 45 games? It's inarguable that Johnson has been the better receiver over the past 3 or 4 seasons and throughout their careers.

So....Yes, the stats do show that over the past year and a half you would be better off starting Houshmandzadeh. I've seen almost all of their games throughout their careers since they were both drafted by the Bengals out of Oregon State, and I know that Chad Johnson is the better, more talented receiver. His excellence affords Housh the opportunity to make plays, and to Housh's credit he's making the plays and then some. I wasn't going for Peerless Price over Eric Moulds in 2002, and I never went for Reggie Wayne over Marvin Harrison until Harrison turned 35 years old. In an offense where both starting receivers are ultra productive, I'll take the better receiver every time no matter what recent history or recent stats tell me. I feel confident that I'll win with superior talent in the long run.

It's not simply a matter of Housh outscoring Johnson, it's that Johnson is so incredibly reliable to produce like a #1 year in and year out. The cratering factor is, I believe, much higher with Housh than it is with Johnson. One is quite possibly a hall of fame caliber receiver. The other is in the midst of a run of a few very productive years in a high scoring offense, and who knows what happens from there?

I know I sound like a broken record with this philosophy, but you don't get credit next week or next year for points that were scored last week or last year. Our job is to find out who is the better bet in the short-term and long-term future. Since I know that Johnson is the better receiver, I'd rather go with talent over recent stats. But that's just me...

When/if Chris Henry comes back, I think he'll affect Housh's production more than Chad's. Chad Johnson will get his. He's good for 1300 yards and 7-10 TDs every year.

EBF

Oct 16 2007, 01:49 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 12:24 AM)

QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 15 2007, 12:43 PM)

Hi F&L,

Love the thread and the rankings. Wanted to point out something that you may want to consider regarding Houshmandzadeh who you have rated as the #12 WR and Chad Johnson who you have rated #1.

In a typical performance non-ppr league (6pts per TD, 1 pt per 10yards), here's the breakdown between the two.

Last 10 weeks of 2005
2005
Houshmandzadeh 101 points total, with 4 head to head victories over Chad.
CJ 118 points total with 5 victories.

2006 in 14 games where both played.
Housh 156 points, 10 victories
CJ 156 points, 4 victories

2007 5 games so far.
Housh 91 points, 3 victories
CJ 73 points 2 victories

So in the last 29 games in which both have played, Houshmandzadeh has 348 points, and 17 head to head victories. CJ has 347 points and 11 victories. (1 tie).

I understand that explosive weeks have a determining factor as well. Chad has shown that he can go for over 30 points. (3 times since week 7 of '05). Housh has never done that. However, both of the players have broken 20 points a total of four times.

Both of these guys are the same age. Shouldn't really be a factor there. Houshmandzadeh missed the first two games of 2006 due to injury, whereas CJ hasn't missed any games during the sample time frame. Which is a bit of an advantage for CJ.

Obviously, you are entitled to having your own opinion regarding these players. I have no problem with that. I just think that over a large sample size, the stats show that you are better off having Houshmandzadeh.

Thank you and nice work on the stats. But let's not overlook the fact that you're doing what everybody does with stats. You're fudging them to suit your case. What if your sample size goes back past 29 games? Why the cut-off at 29 games? Why not 45 games? It's inarguable that Johnson has been the better receiver over the past 3 or 4 seasons and throughout their careers.

So....Yes, the stats do show that over the past year and a half you would be better off starting Houshmandzadeh. I've seen almost all of their games throughout their careers since they were both drafted by the Bengals out of Oregon State, and I know that Chad Johnson is the better, more talented receiver. His excellence affords Housh the opportunity to make plays, and to Housh's credit he's making the plays and then some. I wasn't going for Peerless Price over Eric Moulds in 2002, and I never went for Reggie Wayne over Marvin Harrison until Harrison turned 35 years old. In an offense where both starting receivers are ultra productive, I'll take the better receiver every time no matter what recent history or recent stats tell me. I feel confident that I'll win with superior talent in the long run.

It's not just that Housh has outscored Johnson, it's that Johnson is so incredibly reliable to produce like a #1 year in and year out. The cratering factor is, I believe, much higher with Housh than it is with Johnson. One is quite possibly a hall of fame caliber receiver. The other is in the midst of a run of a few very productive years in a high scoring offense, and who knows what happens from there?

I know I sound like a broken record with this philosophy, but you don't get credit next week or next year for points that were scored last week or last year. Our job is to find out who is the better bet in the short-term and long-term future. Since I know that Johnson is the better receiver, I'd rather go with talent over recent stats. But that's just me...

When/if Chris Henry comes back, I think he'll affect Housh's production more than Chad's. Chad Johnson will get his. He's good for 1300 yards and 7-10 TDs every year.