QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 24 2007, 10:36 PM) 
QUOTE (FantasyTrader @ Jun 24 2007, 08:38 AM)
So at this point, I'll PM F&L and deal with this situation with him directly. It occured to me (thank you to a fellow member for PMing me) that now, in an attempt to man up and take responsibility, I'm just hijacking a quality thread as well. So my no longer responding is not me ducking it's just me allowing this thread to get back to what it was intended to be about - F & L's rankings.
Thanks.
Thanks.
Fantasy Trader (Rick) and I have chatted via email, and though I was extremely upset with his actions, I think he has handled himself well since I approached him with this issue. He has given me a very sincere apology and has made his regrets clear.
I'd like to thank all of the guys who brought this to my attention and stuck up for me here. It's nice to know the work is appreciated.
Unfortunately, this may signal a move to a more "protected" website where I can use my real name...whether it's a new dynasty only site or blogging or what not. I'll be sure to let everyone know if/when that does happen. It looks like Rotoworld.com is going to have me doing dynasty rankings starting in July, but that is going to be more of a simple list rather than writing intensive.
I've never received a response from Joe & David after I've emailed them and followed up with a PM stating my interest in writing for FBG. That being the case, I'm led to believe they have no interest in using this work on their own website.
F&L, Best of luck to you in your future endeavors,hopefully it will still be here at FBG's.I stumbled across this thread in early February and it's my favorite thread on the whole site...
Fin
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 24 2007, 09:36 PM)
I've never received a response from Joe & David after I've emailed them and followed up with a PM stating my interest in writing for FBG. That being the case, I'm led to believe they have no interest in using this work on their own website.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 24 2007, 07:47 PM)
QUOTE (awesomeness @ Jun 23 2007, 05:51 PM)
loving the thread, goodwork 
just a few things:
Medlock no longer has to deal with Tynes for the KC kicker position.
Dont know why you say Bryant on the Bucs has little kicking power, he hit a 62 yarder last year.
I see big things for kenton keith
just a few things:
Medlock no longer has to deal with Tynes for the KC kicker position.
Dont know why you say Bryant on the Bucs has little kicking power, he hit a 62 yarder last year.
I see big things for kenton keith
Thanks awesomeness
I hadn't adjusted the player comments since the last updates in early May, so that's why Tynes was still listed in Medlock's comment. I've made the change tonight to reflect Medlock's hold on the job.
Re: Matt Bryant. I simply suggested he doesn't have the strongest of legs, which is evidenced by the fact the he's only hit two FGs over 50 yards in his career. Contrast that with somebody like Josh Brown who has been in the league about the same amount of time and has 10 FGs over 50 yards. Regardless of his leg strength, I don't think Bryant is a kicker anybody should be counting on in dynasty leagues.
What's with the Kenton Keith love? What do you know about him that we should know?
lol kenton kieth has tore up the CFL for the past couple of years averaging over 6 yards a carry and 1000 yards rushing in a pass heavy league. In his last year he improved his catching ability haveing over 50 receptions, about 25 more than his past years in the CFL. Although he seems to fumble a lot, whenever i watched him play anyway, and he was rarely used in goal lines plays.
Thanks for this outstanding thread Fear & Loathing. It is terrific work. I wish you well and hope you let us know where we'll be able to read more of your work.
I should say thanks also. For newbies like me,... it's very fortunate to enjoy the fruits of someone else's labor. Your words have helped me be a better fantasy football player.
again,... I appreciate it...
again,... I appreciate it...
QUOTE (TDavi118 @ Jul 9 2007, 09:23 PM)
I should say thanks also. For newbies like me,... it's very fortunate to enjoy the fruits of someone else's labor. Your words have helped me be a better fantasy football player.
again,... I appreciate it...
again,... I appreciate it...
theedge & TDavi118,
It's great to hear positive feedback from you guys, and I'm glad the rankings have been a help. That's what they're here for afterall. Thank you for taking the time to respond.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Late June / early July is such a down period for fantasy football, but camps will be opening soon enough. My maiden voyage with Rotoworld.com should kick off early next week with my initial dynasty rankings and hopefully a more in-depth column to go with Rotoworld's camp preview.
I will be tweaking the rankings the rest of this week and through the weekend, and I'll put them up here when I'm finished.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jul 18 2007, 12:24 PM)
QUOTE (TDavi118 @ Jul 9 2007, 09:23 PM)
I should say thanks also. For newbies like me,... it's very fortunate to enjoy the fruits of someone else's labor. Your words have helped me be a better fantasy football player.
again,... I appreciate it...
again,... I appreciate it...
theedge & TDavi118,
It's great to hear positive feedback from you guys, and I'm glad the rankings have been a help. That's what they're here for afterall. Thank you for taking the time to respond.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Late June / early July is such a down period for fantasy football, but camps will be opening soon enough. My maiden voyage with Rotoworld.com should kick off early next week with my initial dynasty rankings and hopefully a more in-depth column to go with Rotoworld's camp preview.
I will be tweaking the rankings the rest of this week and through the weekend, and I'll put them up here when I'm finished.
Congrats! 40k hits to this thread alone has to be driving some demand for your work. It may just be my favorite part of all FBG
QUOTE (DocT @ Jul 18 2007, 06:44 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jul 18 2007, 12:24 PM)
QUOTE (TDavi118 @ Jul 9 2007, 09:23 PM)
I should say thanks also. For newbies like me,... it's very fortunate to enjoy the fruits of someone else's labor. Your words have helped me be a better fantasy football player.
again,... I appreciate it...
again,... I appreciate it...
theedge & TDavi118,
It's great to hear positive feedback from you guys, and I'm glad the rankings have been a help. That's what they're here for afterall. Thank you for taking the time to respond.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Late June / early July is such a down period for fantasy football, but camps will be opening soon enough. My maiden voyage with Rotoworld.com should kick off early next week with my initial dynasty rankings and hopefully a more in-depth column to go with Rotoworld's camp preview.
I will be tweaking the rankings the rest of this week and through the weekend, and I'll put them up here when I'm finished.
Congrats! 40k hits to this thread alone has to be driving some demand for your work. It may just be my favorite part of all FBG
Thanks, Doc T. Keep the questions and debates coming.
Whens the next update F&L?
My latest dynasty rankings with player comments are now up on Rotoworld. The bad news for you guys is that they are in the Draft Guide, which is pay material. But the good news is that it's only $14.95 for the draft guide, and there is much more to it than just dynasty rankings. Rather than continuing to pimp the guide, I'll let you guys check out their sample page and decide for yourselves if the $15 is worth it.
So that kind of brings me to a dilemma: It's not fair to Rotoworld if I post the same material here for free, but I do take pride in having this thread updated. On the positive side, the rotoworld format and rankings are similar to what I've been posting all along. I've updated many of the player comments for the draft guide and changed the order due to fresh news updates and their non-PPR format. Since I can't copy and paste that work here, the best I can do is just continue to tweak the old rankings on page 7 from time to time without changing much in the way of player comments.
In addition to the dynasty rankings in the draft guide, Rotoworld is going to have me doing a weekly Dynasty Top 200 as well as a weekly Re-Draft Top 200. I am assuming this material will be free, so I will link to it here as soon it's up on their site in the next week or so.
One thing I don't want to lose in the transition is the quality debate that goes on in this thread. Please continue to chime in with opinions, questions, comments, insults, etc. It doesn't have to be a comment about a ranking. If you have a question on the [perceived] value of any of your players, just fling it on up here...you know you will get an answer from me as well as from other quality dynasty minds who are regulars to the thread. Time and news change value, so feel free to bring on your Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jacobs, and Joey Harrington questions.
One final note: bookmark Rotoworld for future dynasty coverage! I know it's a competitor, but we all check multiple sites for our amalgamated fantasy information anyway. Hopefully, adding another website to your list will be a boost for your dynasty team.
So that kind of brings me to a dilemma: It's not fair to Rotoworld if I post the same material here for free, but I do take pride in having this thread updated. On the positive side, the rotoworld format and rankings are similar to what I've been posting all along. I've updated many of the player comments for the draft guide and changed the order due to fresh news updates and their non-PPR format. Since I can't copy and paste that work here, the best I can do is just continue to tweak the old rankings on page 7 from time to time without changing much in the way of player comments.
In addition to the dynasty rankings in the draft guide, Rotoworld is going to have me doing a weekly Dynasty Top 200 as well as a weekly Re-Draft Top 200. I am assuming this material will be free, so I will link to it here as soon it's up on their site in the next week or so.
One thing I don't want to lose in the transition is the quality debate that goes on in this thread. Please continue to chime in with opinions, questions, comments, insults, etc. It doesn't have to be a comment about a ranking. If you have a question on the [perceived] value of any of your players, just fling it on up here...you know you will get an answer from me as well as from other quality dynasty minds who are regulars to the thread. Time and news change value, so feel free to bring on your Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jacobs, and Joey Harrington questions.
One final note: bookmark Rotoworld for future dynasty coverage! I know it's a competitor, but we all check multiple sites for our amalgamated fantasy information anyway. Hopefully, adding another website to your list will be a boost for your dynasty team.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jul 26 2007, 08:25 AM)
My latest dynasty rankings with player comments are now up on Rotoworld. The bad news for you guys is that they are in the Draft Guide, which is pay material. But the good news is that it's only $14.95 for the draft guide, and there is much more to it than just dynasty rankings. Rather than continuing to pimp the guide, I'll let you guys check out their sample page and decide for yourselves if the $15 is worth it.
So that kind of brings me to a dilemma: It's not fair to Rotoworld if I post the same material here for free, but I do take pride in having this thread updated. On the positive side, the rotoworld format and rankings are similar to what I've been posting all along. I've updated many of the player comments for the draft guide and changed the order due to fresh news updates and their non-PPR format. Since I can't copy and paste that work here, the best I can do is just continue to tweak the old rankings on page 7 from time to time without changing much in the way of player comments.
In addition to the dynasty rankings in the draft guide, Rotoworld is going to have me doing a weekly Dynasty Top 200 as well as a weekly Re-Draft Top 200. I am assuming this material will be free, so I will link to it here as soon it's up on their site in the next week or so.
One thing I don't want to lose in the transition is the quality debate that goes on in this thread. Please continue to chime in with opinions, questions, comments, insults, etc. It doesn't have to be a comment about a ranking. If you have a question on the [perceived] value of any of your players, just fling it on up here...you know you will get an answer from me as well as from other quality dynasty minds who are regulars to the thread. Time and news change value, so feel free to bring on your Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jacobs, and Joey Harrington questions.
One final note: bookmark Rotoworld for future dynasty coverage! I know it's a competitor, but we all check multiple sites for our amalgamated fantasy information anyway. Hopefully, adding another website to your list will be a boost for your dynasty team.
So that kind of brings me to a dilemma: It's not fair to Rotoworld if I post the same material here for free, but I do take pride in having this thread updated. On the positive side, the rotoworld format and rankings are similar to what I've been posting all along. I've updated many of the player comments for the draft guide and changed the order due to fresh news updates and their non-PPR format. Since I can't copy and paste that work here, the best I can do is just continue to tweak the old rankings on page 7 from time to time without changing much in the way of player comments.
In addition to the dynasty rankings in the draft guide, Rotoworld is going to have me doing a weekly Dynasty Top 200 as well as a weekly Re-Draft Top 200. I am assuming this material will be free, so I will link to it here as soon it's up on their site in the next week or so.
One thing I don't want to lose in the transition is the quality debate that goes on in this thread. Please continue to chime in with opinions, questions, comments, insults, etc. It doesn't have to be a comment about a ranking. If you have a question on the [perceived] value of any of your players, just fling it on up here...you know you will get an answer from me as well as from other quality dynasty minds who are regulars to the thread. Time and news change value, so feel free to bring on your Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jacobs, and Joey Harrington questions.
One final note: bookmark Rotoworld for future dynasty coverage! I know it's a competitor, but we all check multiple sites for our amalgamated fantasy information anyway. Hopefully, adding another website to your list will be a boost for your dynasty team.
These are obviously the players who are having the largest swings in value right now. What are your thoughts? I like that it looks like Norwood should be in line for a much bigger workload but worry that with all of the other issues going on in ATL that it might not translate into very good production.
Jacobs completely confuses me. For a short term play (1-2 years) he could be a beast. I just worry whether or not he can hold up to the punishment (mostly self-inflicted).
QUOTE (Q-Bert @ Jul 26 2007, 10:38 AM)
These are obviously the players who are having the largest swings in value right now. What are your thoughts? I like that it looks like Norwood should be in line for a much bigger workload but worry that with all of the other issues going on in ATL that it might not translate into very good production.
Jacobs completely confuses me. For a short term play (1-2 years) he could be a beast. I just worry whether or not he can hold up to the punishment (mostly self-inflicted).
Jacobs completely confuses me. For a short term play (1-2 years) he could be a beast. I just worry whether or not he can hold up to the punishment (mostly self-inflicted).
Norwood: I think the possibility of being able to count on him as a startable back this year, in addition to the future value that we already figured he held, gives him a significant boost in dynasty value. I still see him as a runner who will ultimately be paired with another back, but now he may have a window of opportunity to prove himself as The Man for the Falcons.
Jacobs: I've never been sold on him as having long term dynasty value partially for the reason you stated. I know a lot of people are high on him, but he's one of those players who is going to have to prove he's a weekly fantasy starter before I believe. I think the news that Droughns is expected to garner only a series or two per game is good for Jacobs, but Bradshaw has impressed and looms as the 3rd down back.
Both of these RBs, Norwood & Jacobs, have moved up in my mind over the past 6 weeks or so. Whereas they both may have been about 65/35 on the Promise vs. Production Scale heading into the off-season, the scales have shifted to a legit 50/50 on Promise vs. Production expectations. I think if you can count on them as possible starter level backs for this year, then they're almost neck-and-neck with Thomas Jones and above guys like Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Michael Turner, Ahman Green, Kevin Jones and Marion Barber. If the news doesn't get better on Kevin Jones soon, you might be able to move Tatum Bell above that group as well.
Joey Harrington has about the same amount of value as Jeff Garcia. In other words, he has no value beyond '07...and why even bother with him this year unless you're desperate for a fill-in? He's proven time and again that he's a poor quarterback, and I don't see anything changing in Atlanta.
Hi F&L,
I just have a question about your Michael Turner ranking. I was wondering why MT was ranked in tier 4 based on '08 forward. Shouldn't his tier 4 ranking apply to '07? Because after the '07 season, he'll probably be a starter somewhere in '08, thus,... a bump in his ranking. Can you elaborate please?
Thanks
I just have a question about your Michael Turner ranking. I was wondering why MT was ranked in tier 4 based on '08 forward. Shouldn't his tier 4 ranking apply to '07? Because after the '07 season, he'll probably be a starter somewhere in '08, thus,... a bump in his ranking. Can you elaborate please?
Thanks
QUOTE (Giveeem6 @ Jul 26 2007, 01:50 PM)
Hi F&L,
I just have a question about your Michael Turner ranking. I was wondering why MT was ranked in tier 4 based on '08 forward. Shouldn't his tier 4 ranking apply to '07? Because after the '07 season, he'll probably be a starter somewhere in '08, thus,... a bump in his ranking. Can you elaborate please?
Thanks
I just have a question about your Michael Turner ranking. I was wondering why MT was ranked in tier 4 based on '08 forward. Shouldn't his tier 4 ranking apply to '07? Because after the '07 season, he'll probably be a starter somewhere in '08, thus,... a bump in his ranking. Can you elaborate please?
Thanks
I'm a little confused by the wording of your question (which may be because my wording on the ranking was confusing), but I'll take a stab at an answer.
I stated that I'm giving him this ranking due to his '08 value because he doesn't have much value for the '07 season. You're not going to use him this year as anything more than a roster spot. You have to weigh his dynasty value knowing that you can't start him this year whereas you probably can start a player like Edgerrin James, Ahman Green, or Deuce McAllister.
If you have 2 stud RBs on your roster and can afford to stash Michael Turner, then he's worth a lot more to you than an underwhelming veteran RB. On the other hand, if you're struggling for RB production on a weekly basis, you may not have the luxury of keeping Turner ahead of guys who will produce when you need it this year.
QUOTE (wdcrob @ Jun 20 2007, 08:38 PM)
Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...
Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.
Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.
That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.
Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.
Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.
That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.
It might be too late to buy low on LenDale White and sell high on Chris Brown.
Per rotoworld today:
QUOTE
LenDale White has taken all the reps with the first team at Titans’ camp thus far.
The Titans had said they wanted all open positions to have a rotation among contenders early in camp, so maybe they view a healthy White as the starter. Or, maybe they’re trying to motivate Chris Brown. White would be a tremendous value in the middle rounds if he’s given regular carries.
The Titans had said they wanted all open positions to have a rotation among contenders early in camp, so maybe they view a healthy White as the starter. Or, maybe they’re trying to motivate Chris Brown. White would be a tremendous value in the middle rounds if he’s given regular carries.
Yesterday:
QUOTE
The Nashville Tennessean is betting LenDale White will be the Titans' starting running back this season.
Chris Brown would serve as the team's third-down back. Chris Henry, the Titans' second-round draft choice, reportedly "still has a ways to go."
Chris Brown would serve as the team's third-down back. Chris Henry, the Titans' second-round draft choice, reportedly "still has a ways to go."
Joe and David should have signed F&L to a long term contract.
QUOTE (Cowboys#1 @ Jul 30 2007, 12:31 PM)
Joe and David should have signed F&L to a long term contract.
F&L is worth first round money.
QUOTE (Cowboys#1 @ Jul 30 2007, 12:31 PM)
Joe and David should have signed F&L to a long term contract.
Thank you for your support, Cowboys#1 & DocT. Just because I'm not writing for FBGs doesn't mean this thread has to die.
I've just updated the rankings on pages 7 & 8 with the most changes since the May/June rankings. The player comments are still pretty much unchanged, but the order and tiering have changed significantly in some cases. Later today, I hope to be finished with the first "Rising/Falling" list since the end of last season.
Players rising in value since May/June:
QUARTERBACKS
Brodie Croyle – Not my kind of QB, but it looks like he’s going to be running this offense in Week one.
Ben Roethlisberger – Bounceback candidate. Finished last year as the #10 fantasy QB in a poor season. Arians’ offense will give him more room to grow as a QB and enhance the passing game's production this year.
D.J. Shockley – Deep sleeper. He’s not ready, but it may not take long for the Falcons to tire of Joey Harrington’s act and look to Shockley for a few weeks as the Vikings did last year with Tarvaris Jackson and the Dolphins did with Cleo Lemon.
RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai – Colts don’t bring in a time-share vet, so Addai picks up where Edge left off a couple years ago as the highly productive full-time back in Indy’s well oiled machine.
Brandon Jacobs – Not only is Droughns not going to be given a chance to win the job, but he’s also likely to be weeded out early. Jacobs has a chance to build serious dynasty value by impressing early.
Jerious Norwood – Dunn’s surgery opens the door for Norwood to see an increased role in the offense. If he can steal the more productive portion of a time-share like Bush & Mo-Jo have done, he’s going to be startable.
LenDale White – Down to his 240 lbs. playing weight and working with the first team offense, LenDale has a chance to take this job and run with it. As predicted, White is the back to own on this team and is looking like a possible steal for those who grabbed him as a sleeper.
Tatum Bell – After calling Tatum Bell “the whole package” earlier this week, Mike Martz went on with even more effusive praise: "Tatum right now is on a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." That’s not your everyday average coach-speak.
Frank Gore – His hand will be fine going into the season opener, and with a few more TDs this year he’s poised to challenge Tomlinson & S-Jax as the top fantasy entity in football. The more I study Frank Gore, the more reasons I find to push him above Larry Johnson.
Ronnie Brown – Breakout alert! Just give him a little bit of help on the line and behind center, and Brown will bust out this season.
Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett – I’m not a fan of either player, but they may get a chance to split carries in the event of a prolonged LJ holdout.
WIDE RECEIVERS
D.J. Hackett – Pay no attention to the Nate Burleson hype. This is Hackett’s breakout season.
Matt Jones – Again, you're better off ignoring the pre-season hype. Jones emerged as a true deep threat late last season with a very strong December. The Jags aren’t going to sweep that promise under the rug for a 3rd round rookie.
Vincent Jackson – Red zone monster should see an increase in overall targets as he takes over McCardell’s role in the offense.
Maurice Stovall – If he hasn’t taken Michael Clayton’s job yet, he will soon.
Wes Welker – Moss & Stallworth are basically working on one year deals. Welker may be the only mainstay in the Pats’ passing game.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis – If you believe a player has a chance to be dominant at his position, you should go out of your way to invest in that potential.
Chris Cooley – Good rapport with Campbell and less of a risk than Shockey, Crumpler, and Watson.
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
Heath Miller – Many are sleeping on Miller this year after his disappointing sophomore season, but don’t overlook Bill Cower’s role in keeping his tight ends from reaching their potential. Only 6 teams threw to their tight ends less than the Steelers did last season.
Marcedes Lewis – It’s rare for 1st round tight ends to make an immediate impact, and Lewis had the additional burden of being slowed by injuries most of the season. Nonetheless, he has the inside track on the starting job this year. Del Rio says Lewis has "has started over the last three days to separate himself" and that "after Marcedes, it's a battle." That’s a very good sign for the Jacksonville passing game.
I have to get up early to go deep-sea fishing with a local Tybee character tomorrow, so I'm going to get some sleep and hold off on posting the Dynasty Fallers for a day or so.
QUARTERBACKS
Brodie Croyle – Not my kind of QB, but it looks like he’s going to be running this offense in Week one.
Ben Roethlisberger – Bounceback candidate. Finished last year as the #10 fantasy QB in a poor season. Arians’ offense will give him more room to grow as a QB and enhance the passing game's production this year.
D.J. Shockley – Deep sleeper. He’s not ready, but it may not take long for the Falcons to tire of Joey Harrington’s act and look to Shockley for a few weeks as the Vikings did last year with Tarvaris Jackson and the Dolphins did with Cleo Lemon.
RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai – Colts don’t bring in a time-share vet, so Addai picks up where Edge left off a couple years ago as the highly productive full-time back in Indy’s well oiled machine.
Brandon Jacobs – Not only is Droughns not going to be given a chance to win the job, but he’s also likely to be weeded out early. Jacobs has a chance to build serious dynasty value by impressing early.
Jerious Norwood – Dunn’s surgery opens the door for Norwood to see an increased role in the offense. If he can steal the more productive portion of a time-share like Bush & Mo-Jo have done, he’s going to be startable.
LenDale White – Down to his 240 lbs. playing weight and working with the first team offense, LenDale has a chance to take this job and run with it. As predicted, White is the back to own on this team and is looking like a possible steal for those who grabbed him as a sleeper.
Tatum Bell – After calling Tatum Bell “the whole package” earlier this week, Mike Martz went on with even more effusive praise: "Tatum right now is on a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." That’s not your everyday average coach-speak.
Frank Gore – His hand will be fine going into the season opener, and with a few more TDs this year he’s poised to challenge Tomlinson & S-Jax as the top fantasy entity in football. The more I study Frank Gore, the more reasons I find to push him above Larry Johnson.
Ronnie Brown – Breakout alert! Just give him a little bit of help on the line and behind center, and Brown will bust out this season.
Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett – I’m not a fan of either player, but they may get a chance to split carries in the event of a prolonged LJ holdout.
WIDE RECEIVERS
D.J. Hackett – Pay no attention to the Nate Burleson hype. This is Hackett’s breakout season.
Matt Jones – Again, you're better off ignoring the pre-season hype. Jones emerged as a true deep threat late last season with a very strong December. The Jags aren’t going to sweep that promise under the rug for a 3rd round rookie.
Vincent Jackson – Red zone monster should see an increase in overall targets as he takes over McCardell’s role in the offense.
Maurice Stovall – If he hasn’t taken Michael Clayton’s job yet, he will soon.
Wes Welker – Moss & Stallworth are basically working on one year deals. Welker may be the only mainstay in the Pats’ passing game.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis – If you believe a player has a chance to be dominant at his position, you should go out of your way to invest in that potential.
Chris Cooley – Good rapport with Campbell and less of a risk than Shockey, Crumpler, and Watson.
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
Heath Miller – Many are sleeping on Miller this year after his disappointing sophomore season, but don’t overlook Bill Cower’s role in keeping his tight ends from reaching their potential. Only 6 teams threw to their tight ends less than the Steelers did last season.
Marcedes Lewis – It’s rare for 1st round tight ends to make an immediate impact, and Lewis had the additional burden of being slowed by injuries most of the season. Nonetheless, he has the inside track on the starting job this year. Del Rio says Lewis has "has started over the last three days to separate himself" and that "after Marcedes, it's a battle." That’s a very good sign for the Jacksonville passing game.
I have to get up early to go deep-sea fishing with a local Tybee character tomorrow, so I'm going to get some sleep and hold off on posting the Dynasty Fallers for a day or so.
Great stuff here, thanks.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 2 2007, 08:47 PM)
Players rising in value since May/June:
QUARTERBACKS
Brodie Croyle – Not my kind of QB, but it looks like he’s going to be running this offense in Week one.
Ben Roethlisberger – Bounceback candidate. Finished last year as the #10 fantasy QB in a poor season. Arians’ offense will give him more room to grow as a QB and enhance the passing game's production this year.
D.J. Shockley – Deep sleeper. He’s not ready, but it may not take long for the Falcons to tire of Joey Harrington’s act and look to Shockley for a few weeks as the Vikings did last year with Tarvaris Jackson and the Dolphins did with Cleo Lemon.
RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai – Colts don’t bring in a time-share vet, so Addai picks up where Edge left off a couple years ago as the highly productive full-time back in Indy’s well oiled machine.
Brandon Jacobs – Not only is Droughns not going to be given a chance to win the job, but he’s also likely to be weeded out early. Jacobs has a chance to build serious dynasty value by impressing early.
Jerious Norwood – Dunn’s surgery opens the door for Norwood to see an increased role in the offense. If he can steal the more productive portion of a time-share like Bush & Mo-Jo have done, he’s going to be startable.
LenDale White – Down to his 240 lbs. playing weight and working with the first team offense, LenDale has a chance to take this job and run with it. As predicted, White is the back to own on this team and is looking like a possible steal for those who grabbed him as a sleeper.
Tatum Bell – After calling Tatum Bell “the whole package” earlier this week, Mike Martz went on with even more effusive praise: "Tatum right now is on a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." That’s not your everyday average coach-speak.
Frank Gore – His hand will be fine going into the season opener, and with a few more TDs this year he’s poised to challenge Tomlinson & S-Jax as the top fantasy entity in football. The more I study Frank Gore, the more reasons I find to push him above Larry Johnson.
Ronnie Brown – Breakout alert! Just give him a little bit of help on the line and behind center, and Brown will bust out this season.
Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett – I’m not a fan of either player, but they may get a chance to split carries in the event of a prolonged LJ holdout.
WIDE RECEIVERS
D.J. Hackett – Pay no attention to the Nate Burleson hype. This is Hackett’s breakout season.
Matt Jones – Again, you're better off ignoring the pre-season hype. Jones emerged as a true deep threat late last season with a very strong December. The Jags aren’t going to sweep that promise under the rug for a 3rd round rookie.
Vincent Jackson – Red zone monster should see an increase in overall targets as he takes over McCardell’s role in the offense.
Maurice Stovall – If he hasn’t taken Michael Clayton’s job yet, he will soon.
Wes Welker – Moss & Stallworth are basically working on one year deals. Welker may be the only mainstay in the Pats’ passing game.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis – If you believe a player has a chance to be dominant at his position, you should go out of your way to invest in that potential.
Chris Cooley – Good rapport with Campbell and less of a risk than Shockey, Crumpler, and Watson.
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
Heath Miller – Many are sleeping on Miller this year after his disappointing sophomore season, but don’t overlook Bill Cower’s role in keeping his tight ends from reaching their potential. Only 6 teams threw to their tight ends less than the Steelers did last season.
Marcedes Lewis – It’s rare for 1st round tight ends to make an immediate impact, and Lewis had the additional burden of being slowed by injuries most of the season. Nonetheless, he has the inside tracking on the starting job this year. Del Rio says Lewis has "has started over the last three days to separate himself" and that "after Marcedes, it's a battle." That’s a very good sign for the Jacksonville passing game.
I have to get up early to go deep-sea fishing with a local Tybee character tomorrow, so I'm going to get some sleep and hold off on posting the Dynasty Fallers for a day or so.
QUARTERBACKS
Brodie Croyle – Not my kind of QB, but it looks like he’s going to be running this offense in Week one.
Ben Roethlisberger – Bounceback candidate. Finished last year as the #10 fantasy QB in a poor season. Arians’ offense will give him more room to grow as a QB and enhance the passing game's production this year.
D.J. Shockley – Deep sleeper. He’s not ready, but it may not take long for the Falcons to tire of Joey Harrington’s act and look to Shockley for a few weeks as the Vikings did last year with Tarvaris Jackson and the Dolphins did with Cleo Lemon.
RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai – Colts don’t bring in a time-share vet, so Addai picks up where Edge left off a couple years ago as the highly productive full-time back in Indy’s well oiled machine.
Brandon Jacobs – Not only is Droughns not going to be given a chance to win the job, but he’s also likely to be weeded out early. Jacobs has a chance to build serious dynasty value by impressing early.
Jerious Norwood – Dunn’s surgery opens the door for Norwood to see an increased role in the offense. If he can steal the more productive portion of a time-share like Bush & Mo-Jo have done, he’s going to be startable.
LenDale White – Down to his 240 lbs. playing weight and working with the first team offense, LenDale has a chance to take this job and run with it. As predicted, White is the back to own on this team and is looking like a possible steal for those who grabbed him as a sleeper.
Tatum Bell – After calling Tatum Bell “the whole package” earlier this week, Mike Martz went on with even more effusive praise: "Tatum right now is on a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." That’s not your everyday average coach-speak.
Frank Gore – His hand will be fine going into the season opener, and with a few more TDs this year he’s poised to challenge Tomlinson & S-Jax as the top fantasy entity in football. The more I study Frank Gore, the more reasons I find to push him above Larry Johnson.
Ronnie Brown – Breakout alert! Just give him a little bit of help on the line and behind center, and Brown will bust out this season.
Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett – I’m not a fan of either player, but they may get a chance to split carries in the event of a prolonged LJ holdout.
WIDE RECEIVERS
D.J. Hackett – Pay no attention to the Nate Burleson hype. This is Hackett’s breakout season.
Matt Jones – Again, you're better off ignoring the pre-season hype. Jones emerged as a true deep threat late last season with a very strong December. The Jags aren’t going to sweep that promise under the rug for a 3rd round rookie.
Vincent Jackson – Red zone monster should see an increase in overall targets as he takes over McCardell’s role in the offense.
Maurice Stovall – If he hasn’t taken Michael Clayton’s job yet, he will soon.
Wes Welker – Moss & Stallworth are basically working on one year deals. Welker may be the only mainstay in the Pats’ passing game.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis – If you believe a player has a chance to be dominant at his position, you should go out of your way to invest in that potential.
Chris Cooley – Good rapport with Campbell and less of a risk than Shockey, Crumpler, and Watson.
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
Heath Miller – Many are sleeping on Miller this year after his disappointing sophomore season, but don’t overlook Bill Cower’s role in keeping his tight ends from reaching their potential. Only 6 teams threw to their tight ends less than the Steelers did last season.
Marcedes Lewis – It’s rare for 1st round tight ends to make an immediate impact, and Lewis had the additional burden of being slowed by injuries most of the season. Nonetheless, he has the inside tracking on the starting job this year. Del Rio says Lewis has "has started over the last three days to separate himself" and that "after Marcedes, it's a battle." That’s a very good sign for the Jacksonville passing game.
I have to get up early to go deep-sea fishing with a local Tybee character tomorrow, so I'm going to get some sleep and hold off on posting the Dynasty Fallers for a day or so.
Matt Jones is looking more and more like a bust to me. He looks great on paper, but doesn't dominate on the field. Walker has been outplaying him. Williams seems to be the #1 guy on the Jags. I don't see a lot of room for Jones to have a breakout season.
Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell, or Brandon Jacobs deserve high marks in the opportunity category, but I'm definitely not a big fan of their long-term prospects. All of them are below average NFL starters, IMO.
Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. Unless Clayton is injured or unfocused, he shouldn't lose that battle.
I like your Croyle, White, Roethlisberger, Lewis, Miller, and Hackett calls. They all have a good chance to increase in value over the next few months.
Great work. Perfect timing for me on your updates too. Got a start-up dynasty auction draft on Sunday.
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
QUOTE (EBF @ Aug 2 2007, 11:51 PM)
Matt Jones is looking more and more like a bust to me. He looks great on paper, but doesn't dominate on the field. Walker has been outplaying him. Williams seems to be the #1 guy on the Jags. I don't see a lot of room for Jones to have a breakout season.
Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell, or Brandon Jacobs deserve high marks in the opportunity category, but I'm definitely not a big fan of their long-term prospects. All of them are below average NFL starters, IMO.
Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. Unless Clayton is injured or unfocused, he shouldn't lose that battle.
I like your Croyle, White, Roethlisberger, Lewis, Miller, and Hackett calls. They all have a good chance to increase in value over the next few months.
Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell, or Brandon Jacobs deserve high marks in the opportunity category, but I'm definitely not a big fan of their long-term prospects. All of them are below average NFL starters, IMO.
Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. Unless Clayton is injured or unfocused, he shouldn't lose that battle.
I like your Croyle, White, Roethlisberger, Lewis, Miller, and Hackett calls. They all have a good chance to increase in value over the next few months.
Good points. Here's where I differ:
I think Matt Jones' problems have actually had less to do with learning how to play WR and more to do with groin/hamstring injuries. Despite his injuries last season, he still led all Jags WRs in targets and is their #1 WR heading into the 2007. The rise in value to me is because of the [mis]perception that JAX's #1 WR has fallen behind other guys before pre-season games have even started. As I mentioned earlier, Jones closed out the season with an impressive December and has a better chance this year to break out with some dominant performances. His value is higher to me because I know I can get him more cheaply this year even though he has a better chance of a breakout season...which goes hand-in-hand with our earlier discussion about acquiring talented young WRs by sticking to your opinion when their value is down. I'd much rather have Matt Jones on my team this year than Dwayne Bowe.
I agree with your take on Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs. I'm not sold on either of their long-term prospects though they do get high marks in opportunity. I might gamble on a guy like Bell to put up eminently startable numbers for a few weeks and then deal him while his value has peaked. I wouldn't do that with Jacobs because I've never been high on his prospects, but he has the chance to put the doubts to rest.
I've never understood your negativity towards Ronnie Brown. He's clearly a very talented RB, he has the size, the speed, the moves, and the receiving ability. There are 3 things that have held him back: 1] Ricky Williams' presence in his rookie season. 2] A minor injury in each season. 3] Brutal O-Line play and offensive supporting cast. Many were similarly doubting Steven Jackson two summers ago before his break-out season. You're not getting those guys after they break-out, so you have to jump on them while there are still significant doubts.
Michael Clayton may have once been a much more talented WR than Stovall, but I don't believe the 2007 version of Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. We'll see. You can't keep starting a WR who simply doesn't produce when he plays...whatever the reasons are for Clayton's lack of production.
QUOTE (hephner @ Aug 3 2007, 02:03 AM)
Great work. Perfect timing for me on your updates too. Got a start-up dynasty auction draft on Sunday.
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
Thanks, hephner. Good calls here.
I almost included Brandon Jackson and Kenny Irons (and I did include Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett). You covered the reasons why Brandon Jackson should be rising. I agree that the perception of his value has risen, but I worry that Jackson will still split carries, and I have major doubts that he'll ever be more than a committee back. But you're right -- the door is opening and Morency is far from an ideal every down back. I like Irons, and he's a great pick if you have the roster space to store him for a couple of years.
Ladell Betts may have more value in re-draft leagues whereas in dynasty he has Clinton Portis looming over the picture for possibly the remainder of his career. He's mandatory for Portis owners, but I'm not rushing out to acquire him over other promising young backs.
I agree with your take on Henderson. He's a great value play for 2007 just as long as you realize Meachem may overtake him at any time.
I just don't see Lorenzo Booker as much more than a 3rd down back.
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 07:26 AM)
QUOTE (hephner @ Aug 3 2007, 02:03 AM)
Great work. Perfect timing for me on your updates too. Got a start-up dynasty auction draft on Sunday.
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
Looking forward to checking out your material on Rotoworld. I've been a fan of that site for a while now too.
A few players I think could be included or on the doorstep of the Rising Value list besides the ones you mentioned:
Brandon Jackson - now that we learned Morency's injury may keep him out longer than expected, the door is open for him to try to distinguish himself.
Ladell Betts - Portis already nursing tendinitis in the knee again. Definitely one situation to monitor closely over the next few weeks.
Michael Bennett/Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes - LJ's contract situation has got to be a major concern right now.
Devery Henderson - More so for short tem value, as Meachem is highly likely to be the #2 eventually, but for now, it looks like Henderson is going to win the job.
And a few rookies who are impressing early:
Lorenzo Booker
Kenny Irons
Mike Walker
& the aforementioned Kolby Smith
Thanks, hephner. Good calls here.
I almost included Brandon Jackson and Kenny Irons (and I did include Kolby Smith/Michael Bennett). You covered the reasons why Brandon Jackson should be rising. I agree that the perception of his value has risen, but I worry that Jackson will still split carries, and I have major doubts that he'll ever be more than a committee back. But you're right -- the door is opening and Morency is far from an ideal every down back. I like Irons, and he's a great pick if you have the roster space to store him for a couple of years.
Ladell Betts may have more value in re-draft leagues whereas in dynasty he has Clinton Portis looming over the picture for possibly the remainder of his career. He's mandatory for Portis owners, but I'm not rushing out to acquire him over other promising young backs.
I agree with your take on Henderson. He's a great value play for 2007 just as long as you realize Meachem may overtake him at any time.
I just don't see Lorenzo Booker as much more than a 3rd down back.
I have my doubts about Jackson too, and, from what I've read, he's doing nothing so far in camp to distinguish himself.
Good point on Booker too. As long as Ronnie's there, I don't see much of a role for Booker.
One more that could be mentioned, although he still has fairly minimal value, would be Kyle Orton in Chicago. He's slowly overtaking Griese in the position battle for backup QB in Chicago. If Rex were to get hurt again, or not show improvements with his consistency, you never know. Neck beard is also still only 24 years old. It at least might warrant adding him to the list around tier 7 or 8 if he does beat out Griese.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 2 2007, 09:47 PM)
D.J. Hackett – Pay no attention to the Nate Burleson hype. This is Hackett’s breakout season.
Today's update from Rotoworld.com:
"Nate Burleson admits he's behind D.J. Hackett on the depth chart.
The real surprise would be if Burleson overtook Hackett. More likely, the Seahawks will utilize Burleson as a punt returner and fourth receiver this year, and see if he's ready to replace Hackett, a pending free agent, in 2008."
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 07:14 AM)
Good points. Here's where I differ:
I think Matt Jones' problems have actually had less to do with learning how to play WR and more to do with groin/hamstring injuries. Despite his injuries last season, he still led all Jags WRs in targets and is their #1 WR heading into the 2007. The rise in value to me is because of the [mis]perception that JAX's #1 WR has fallen behind other guys before pre-season games have even started. As I mentioned earlier, Jones closed out the season with an impressive December and has a better chance this year to break out with some dominant performances. His value is higher to me because I know I can get him more cheaply this year even though he has a better chance of a breakout season...which goes hand-in-hand with our earlier discussion about acquiring talented young WRs by sticking to your opinion when their value is down. I'd much rather have Matt Jones on my team this year than Dwayne Bowe.
I agree with your take on Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs. I'm not sold on either of their long-term prospects though they do get high marks in opportunity. I might gamble on a guy like Bell to put up eminently startable numbers for a few weeks and then deal him while his value has peaked. I wouldn't do that with Jacobs because I've never been high on his prospects, but he has the chance to put the doubts to rest.
I've never understood your negativity towards Ronnie Brown. He's clearly a very talented RB, he has the size, the speed, the moves, and the receiving ability. There are 3 things that have held him back: 1] Ricky Williams' presence in his rookie season. 2] A minor injury in each season. 3] Brutal O-Line play and offensive supporting cast. Many were similarly doubting Steven Jackson two summers ago before his break-out season. You're not getting those guys after they break-out, so you have to jump on them while there are still significant doubts.
Michael Clayton may have once been a much more talented WR than Stovall, but I don't believe the 2007 version of Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. We'll see. You can't keep starting a WR who simply doesn't produce when he plays...whatever the reasons are for Clayton's lack of production.
I think Matt Jones' problems have actually had less to do with learning how to play WR and more to do with groin/hamstring injuries. Despite his injuries last season, he still led all Jags WRs in targets and is their #1 WR heading into the 2007. The rise in value to me is because of the [mis]perception that JAX's #1 WR has fallen behind other guys before pre-season games have even started. As I mentioned earlier, Jones closed out the season with an impressive December and has a better chance this year to break out with some dominant performances. His value is higher to me because I know I can get him more cheaply this year even though he has a better chance of a breakout season...which goes hand-in-hand with our earlier discussion about acquiring talented young WRs by sticking to your opinion when their value is down. I'd much rather have Matt Jones on my team this year than Dwayne Bowe.
I agree with your take on Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs. I'm not sold on either of their long-term prospects though they do get high marks in opportunity. I might gamble on a guy like Bell to put up eminently startable numbers for a few weeks and then deal him while his value has peaked. I wouldn't do that with Jacobs because I've never been high on his prospects, but he has the chance to put the doubts to rest.
I've never understood your negativity towards Ronnie Brown. He's clearly a very talented RB, he has the size, the speed, the moves, and the receiving ability. There are 3 things that have held him back: 1] Ricky Williams' presence in his rookie season. 2] A minor injury in each season. 3] Brutal O-Line play and offensive supporting cast. Many were similarly doubting Steven Jackson two summers ago before his break-out season. You're not getting those guys after they break-out, so you have to jump on them while there are still significant doubts.
Michael Clayton may have once been a much more talented WR than Stovall, but I don't believe the 2007 version of Michael Clayton is a better football player than Maurice Stovall. We'll see. You can't keep starting a WR who simply doesn't produce when he plays...whatever the reasons are for Clayton's lack of production.
I don't think Matt Jones is the WR1 in Jacksonville. He might not even be a starter this season. We'll see.
As for Ronnie Brown, I've just never been that impressed with him. I see him as a guy who got overdrafted due to a good combine. There are some legitimate excuses for his lack of production in college and the NFL, but the bottom line is that the guy has never really lived up to his billing. He still has time to turn it around, but I'm not too excited about his prospects.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 07:11 AM)
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch ....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
Do not discount Lynch in a PPR league.
He will be a beast.
QUOTE (bluesclues @ Aug 3 2007, 01:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 07:11 AM)
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch ....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
Do not discount Lynch in a PPR league.
He will be a beast.
I don't think Lynch will ever become a beast in any kind of league, which is part of the problem. He was a reach at #12 in the first round, and while he may become a good RB, he doesn't have as much of a chance of becoming the impact player that Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson already are. And that's the mind-blower: Johnson is undoubtedly the most talented WR to come into the league since Randy Moss, and considering the total package, is a much better investment than Moss was. Peterson is the best runner to come into the league in quite a few years. You can't pass up elite talent for Marshawn Lynch.
Players falling in value:
QUARTERBACKS
Michael Vick – If you’ve gone from a possible Top 5 QB to legitimate questions about whether you’ll ever see the field again, then your value is pretty much buried.
Alex Smith – [EBF won’t like this one] He hasn’t done anything to see his value drop, but I’ve noticed Smith going far too high in drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the star level, and he’s still a good deal away from starter caliber.
JaMarcus Russell – The hold-out is just the tip of the iceberg. The odds are stacked against him as a QB who came out a year too early to play behind a rotten line, with a sparse running game and below average WRs. Other than Ben Roethlisberger, how many of the top QBs left school early?
Jake Delhomme/Chad Pennington/Trent Green/Damon Huard – Unless you’re forced to use them as a starter, you’re better served backing yourself up with more upside in your 2nd or 3rd QB. Delhomme is a couple of poor games away from the bench; Pennington can’t afford the loss of arm strength that will soon come with age; last year was the beginning of the end for Green; Huard might be glued to the bench on a cratering Chiefs team.
Charlie Frye – Derek Anderson is severely below average as a starting NFL QB, yet he’s currently beating Frye out of his job. It’s safe to say that the weak-armed, turn-over prone Frye is a back-up from here on out.
RUNNINGBACKS
Larry Johnson – You know about the record breaking carries last season as well as the possibility of a prolonged hold-out. But don’t forget the drop in YPC, the installation of a rookie QB, the retirement of yet another hall of fame offensive lineman, and the inevitable decline of Gonzalez & Kennison as well as the rest of the offense. This Chiefs team is slouching towards Bethlehem – “things fall apart, the centre cannot hold.”
Clinton Portis – As if being injury-prone weren’t enough, now we know that Ladell Betts can parallel his performance in this offense. Portis has been a disappointment as often as not since he left Denver, and there’s just too much risk involved with his situation.
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch can be a solid player in the NFL, but I don’t see him as ever reaching the superstar level. Throw in Jauron’s recent statement declaring the Bills’ serious intent to commit to a RBBC, and Lynch slides down a few notches in my eyes.
Kevin Jones – May never again be a full-time RB. In addition to the threat of Tatum Bell, Jones has been extremely injury-prone and a below average rusher. He’s still very good in the passing game, but his future is far less bright now than it was at its peak early last fall.
Deuce McAllister – He’s at the stage of his career where he has to hit double digit TDs to remain successful. I’d prefer to roll the dice on a younger and maybe slightly riskier back than go with Deuce.
Warrick Dunn – As a 32-year-old RB, the injuries aren’t going away. What’s worse, he completely fell apart in the 2nd half of last season after averaging 5.3 YPC in the first half. Great career in the face of many doubters, but the end is nigh.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Torry Holt – Though he led the league in targets last season, his numbers have slipped the past two years. The nagging injuries are starting to hit, and the gradual decline may have already begun.
Donald Driver – Underappreciated by everybody, so I guess you can add me to the list after he failed his physical this week. I still like Driver, but the questions remain: what happens after Favre leaves? And I know he stays in tip-top shape, but he’s starting to hit his mid-30’s where health becomes an even bigger concern. If he’s healthy, he’s still a better bet for ’07 production than many ahead of him…but a shaky future lurks.
Darrell Jackson – Why was Seattle willing to let him go for a 4th rounder? Still not over his injuries and reportedly struggling in a new position with the 49ers, I’m staying far away from D-Jax this season.
Jacoby Jones/Sidney Rice/Craig Davis – The raw Jones is looking more like a darkhorse than a legit contender for the #2 WR spot. Is Rice the next Travis Taylor? How many SEC WRs have starred at the pro level lately? Not enough balls to go around in San Diego, and Davis is unlikely to unseat Eric Parker for the #2 spot. It could be quite some time before this group rewards you with actual value. *8/4/07 Edit: Parker goes down with a 10 week injury giving Craig Davis an opportunity to grab the #2 WR spot in the offense. He should be taken off this list.
TIGHT ENDS
Tony Gonzalez – See LJ comments. The Chiefs are “turning and turning in the widening gyre”, and Brodie Croyle ain’t a patch on Trent Green’s ace. Abandon ship!
Zach Miller – The latest word is that he may start as a rookie, which is very impressive. But when you consider the Raiders offense and the fact that Miller will be extremely over-valued as a rookie TE, he looks a bit less appetizing. Throw in his borderline speed, and the odds of Miller being an elite TE on the NFL level decrease even more. Whoever gets him in your league is likely to overpay.
QUARTERBACKS
Michael Vick – If you’ve gone from a possible Top 5 QB to legitimate questions about whether you’ll ever see the field again, then your value is pretty much buried.
Alex Smith – [EBF won’t like this one] He hasn’t done anything to see his value drop, but I’ve noticed Smith going far too high in drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the star level, and he’s still a good deal away from starter caliber.
JaMarcus Russell – The hold-out is just the tip of the iceberg. The odds are stacked against him as a QB who came out a year too early to play behind a rotten line, with a sparse running game and below average WRs. Other than Ben Roethlisberger, how many of the top QBs left school early?
Jake Delhomme/Chad Pennington/Trent Green/Damon Huard – Unless you’re forced to use them as a starter, you’re better served backing yourself up with more upside in your 2nd or 3rd QB. Delhomme is a couple of poor games away from the bench; Pennington can’t afford the loss of arm strength that will soon come with age; last year was the beginning of the end for Green; Huard might be glued to the bench on a cratering Chiefs team.
Charlie Frye – Derek Anderson is severely below average as a starting NFL QB, yet he’s currently beating Frye out of his job. It’s safe to say that the weak-armed, turn-over prone Frye is a back-up from here on out.
RUNNINGBACKS
Larry Johnson – You know about the record breaking carries last season as well as the possibility of a prolonged hold-out. But don’t forget the drop in YPC, the installation of a rookie QB, the retirement of yet another hall of fame offensive lineman, and the inevitable decline of Gonzalez & Kennison as well as the rest of the offense. This Chiefs team is slouching towards Bethlehem – “things fall apart, the centre cannot hold.”
Clinton Portis – As if being injury-prone weren’t enough, now we know that Ladell Betts can parallel his performance in this offense. Portis has been a disappointment as often as not since he left Denver, and there’s just too much risk involved with his situation.
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch can be a solid player in the NFL, but I don’t see him as ever reaching the superstar level. Throw in Jauron’s recent statement declaring the Bills’ serious intent to commit to a RBBC, and Lynch slides down a few notches in my eyes.
Kevin Jones – May never again be a full-time RB. In addition to the threat of Tatum Bell, Jones has been extremely injury-prone and a below average rusher. He’s still very good in the passing game, but his future is far less bright now than it was at its peak early last fall.
Deuce McAllister – He’s at the stage of his career where he has to hit double digit TDs to remain successful. I’d prefer to roll the dice on a younger and maybe slightly riskier back than go with Deuce.
Warrick Dunn – As a 32-year-old RB, the injuries aren’t going away. What’s worse, he completely fell apart in the 2nd half of last season after averaging 5.3 YPC in the first half. Great career in the face of many doubters, but the end is nigh.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Torry Holt – Though he led the league in targets last season, his numbers have slipped the past two years. The nagging injuries are starting to hit, and the gradual decline may have already begun.
Donald Driver – Underappreciated by everybody, so I guess you can add me to the list after he failed his physical this week. I still like Driver, but the questions remain: what happens after Favre leaves? And I know he stays in tip-top shape, but he’s starting to hit his mid-30’s where health becomes an even bigger concern. If he’s healthy, he’s still a better bet for ’07 production than many ahead of him…but a shaky future lurks.
Darrell Jackson – Why was Seattle willing to let him go for a 4th rounder? Still not over his injuries and reportedly struggling in a new position with the 49ers, I’m staying far away from D-Jax this season.
Jacoby Jones/Sidney Rice/Craig Davis – The raw Jones is looking more like a darkhorse than a legit contender for the #2 WR spot. Is Rice the next Travis Taylor? How many SEC WRs have starred at the pro level lately? Not enough balls to go around in San Diego, and Davis is unlikely to unseat Eric Parker for the #2 spot. It could be quite some time before this group rewards you with actual value. *8/4/07 Edit: Parker goes down with a 10 week injury giving Craig Davis an opportunity to grab the #2 WR spot in the offense. He should be taken off this list.
TIGHT ENDS
Tony Gonzalez – See LJ comments. The Chiefs are “turning and turning in the widening gyre”, and Brodie Croyle ain’t a patch on Trent Green’s ace. Abandon ship!
Zach Miller – The latest word is that he may start as a rookie, which is very impressive. But when you consider the Raiders offense and the fact that Miller will be extremely over-valued as a rookie TE, he looks a bit less appetizing. Throw in his borderline speed, and the odds of Miller being an elite TE on the NFL level decrease even more. Whoever gets him in your league is likely to overpay.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 09:11 AM)
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch ....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
The rest of the 1st round:
1. Marshawn Lynch, BUF, RB
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
3. Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
4. Michael Bush, OAK, RB
5. Brandon Jackson, GB, RB
6. Brandon Marshall, DEN, WR
7. Chris Henry, TEN, RB
8. Kenny Irons, CIN, RB
9. Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR
10. Greg Jennings, GB, WR
11. JaMarcus Russell, OAK, QB
12. Anthony Gonzalez, IND, WR
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 01:28 PM)
Players falling in value:
QUARTERBACKS
Michael Vick – If you’ve gone from a possible Top 5 QB to legitimate questions about whether you’ll ever see the field again, then your value is pretty much buried.
Alex Smith – [EBF won’t like this one] He hasn’t done anything to see his value drop, but I’ve noticed Smith going far too high in drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the star level, and he’s still a good deal away from starter caliber.
JaMarcus Russell – The hold-out is just the tip of the iceberg. The odds are stacked against him as a QB who came out a year too early to play behind a rotten line, with a sparse running game and below average WRs. Other than Ben Roethlisberger, how many of the top QBs left school early?
Jake Delhomme/Chad Pennington/Trent Green/Damon Huard – Unless you’re forced to use them as a starter, you’re better served backing yourself up with more upside in your 2nd or 3rd QB. Delhomme is a couple of poor games away from the bench; Pennington can’t afford the loss of arm strength that will soon come with age; last year was the beginning of the end for Green; Huard might be glued to the bench on a cratering Chiefs team.
Charlie Frye – Derek Anderson is severely below average as a starting NFL QB, yet he’s currently beating Frye out of his job. It’s safe to say that the weak-armed, turn-over prone Frye is a back-up from here on out.
RUNNINGBACKS
Larry Johnson – You know about the record breaking carries last season as well as the possibility of a prolonged hold-out. But don’t forget the drop in YPC, the installation of a rookie QB, the retirement of yet another hall of fame offensive lineman, and the inevitable decline of Gonzalez & Kennison as well as the rest of the offense. This Chiefs team is slouching towards Bethlehem – “things fall apart, the centre cannot hold.”
Clinton Portis – As if being injury-prone weren’t enough, now we know that Ladell Betts can parallel his performance in this offense. Portis has been a disappointment as often as not since he left Denver, and there’s just too much risk involved with his situation.
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch can be a solid player in the NFL, but I don’t see him as ever reaching the superstar level. Throw in Jauron’s recent statement declaring the Bills’ serious intent to commit to a RBBC, and Lynch slides down a few notches in my eyes.
Kevin Jones – May never again be a full-time RB. In addition to the threat of Tatum Bell, Jones has been extremely injury-prone and a below average rusher. He’s still very good in the passing game, but his future is far less bright now than it was at its peak early last fall.
Deuce McAllister – He’s at the stage of his career where he has to hit double digit TDs to remain successful. I’d prefer to roll the dice on a younger and maybe slightly riskier back than go with Deuce.
Warrick Dunn – As a 32-year-old RB, the injuries aren’t going away. What’s worse, he completely fell apart in the 2nd half of last season after averaging 5.3 YPC in the first half. Great career in the face of many doubters, but the end is nigh.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Torry Holt – Though he led the league in targets last season, his numbers have slipped the past two years. The nagging injuries are starting to hit, and the gradual decline may have already begun.
Donald Driver – Underappreciated by everybody, so I guess you can add me to the list after he failed his physical this week. I still like Driver, but the questions remain: what happens after Favre leaves? And I know he stays in tip-top shape, but he’s starting to hit his mid-30’s where health becomes an even bigger concern. If he’s healthy, he’s still a better bet for ’07 production than many ahead of him…but a shaky future lurks.
Darrell Jackson – Why was Seattle willing to let him go for a 4th rounder? Still not over his injuries and reportedly struggling in a new position with the 49ers, I’m staying far away from D-Jax this season.
Jacoby Jones/Sidney Rice/Craig Davis – The raw Jones is looking more like a darkhorse than a legit contender for the #2 WR spot. Is Rice the next Travis Taylor? How many SEC WRs have starred at the pro level lately? Not enough balls to go around in San Diego, and Davis is unlikely to unseat Eric Parker for the #2 spot. It could be quite some time before this group rewards you with actual value.
TIGHT ENDS
Tony Gonzalez – See LJ comments. The Chiefs are “turning and turning in the widening gyre”, and Brodie Croyle ain’t a patch on Trent Green’s ace. Abandon ship!
Zach Miller – The latest word is that he may start as a rookie, which is very impressive. But when you consider the Raiders offense and the fact that Miller will be extremely over-valued as a rookie TE, he looks a bit less appetizing. Throw in his borderline speed, and the odds of Miller being an elite TE on the NFL level decrease even more. Whoever gets him in your league is likely to overpay.
QUARTERBACKS
Michael Vick – If you’ve gone from a possible Top 5 QB to legitimate questions about whether you’ll ever see the field again, then your value is pretty much buried.
Alex Smith – [EBF won’t like this one] He hasn’t done anything to see his value drop, but I’ve noticed Smith going far too high in drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the star level, and he’s still a good deal away from starter caliber.
JaMarcus Russell – The hold-out is just the tip of the iceberg. The odds are stacked against him as a QB who came out a year too early to play behind a rotten line, with a sparse running game and below average WRs. Other than Ben Roethlisberger, how many of the top QBs left school early?
Jake Delhomme/Chad Pennington/Trent Green/Damon Huard – Unless you’re forced to use them as a starter, you’re better served backing yourself up with more upside in your 2nd or 3rd QB. Delhomme is a couple of poor games away from the bench; Pennington can’t afford the loss of arm strength that will soon come with age; last year was the beginning of the end for Green; Huard might be glued to the bench on a cratering Chiefs team.
Charlie Frye – Derek Anderson is severely below average as a starting NFL QB, yet he’s currently beating Frye out of his job. It’s safe to say that the weak-armed, turn-over prone Frye is a back-up from here on out.
RUNNINGBACKS
Larry Johnson – You know about the record breaking carries last season as well as the possibility of a prolonged hold-out. But don’t forget the drop in YPC, the installation of a rookie QB, the retirement of yet another hall of fame offensive lineman, and the inevitable decline of Gonzalez & Kennison as well as the rest of the offense. This Chiefs team is slouching towards Bethlehem – “things fall apart, the centre cannot hold.”
Clinton Portis – As if being injury-prone weren’t enough, now we know that Ladell Betts can parallel his performance in this offense. Portis has been a disappointment as often as not since he left Denver, and there’s just too much risk involved with his situation.
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch can be a solid player in the NFL, but I don’t see him as ever reaching the superstar level. Throw in Jauron’s recent statement declaring the Bills’ serious intent to commit to a RBBC, and Lynch slides down a few notches in my eyes.
Kevin Jones – May never again be a full-time RB. In addition to the threat of Tatum Bell, Jones has been extremely injury-prone and a below average rusher. He’s still very good in the passing game, but his future is far less bright now than it was at its peak early last fall.
Deuce McAllister – He’s at the stage of his career where he has to hit double digit TDs to remain successful. I’d prefer to roll the dice on a younger and maybe slightly riskier back than go with Deuce.
Warrick Dunn – As a 32-year-old RB, the injuries aren’t going away. What’s worse, he completely fell apart in the 2nd half of last season after averaging 5.3 YPC in the first half. Great career in the face of many doubters, but the end is nigh.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Torry Holt – Though he led the league in targets last season, his numbers have slipped the past two years. The nagging injuries are starting to hit, and the gradual decline may have already begun.
Donald Driver – Underappreciated by everybody, so I guess you can add me to the list after he failed his physical this week. I still like Driver, but the questions remain: what happens after Favre leaves? And I know he stays in tip-top shape, but he’s starting to hit his mid-30’s where health becomes an even bigger concern. If he’s healthy, he’s still a better bet for ’07 production than many ahead of him…but a shaky future lurks.
Darrell Jackson – Why was Seattle willing to let him go for a 4th rounder? Still not over his injuries and reportedly struggling in a new position with the 49ers, I’m staying far away from D-Jax this season.
Jacoby Jones/Sidney Rice/Craig Davis – The raw Jones is looking more like a darkhorse than a legit contender for the #2 WR spot. Is Rice the next Travis Taylor? How many SEC WRs have starred at the pro level lately? Not enough balls to go around in San Diego, and Davis is unlikely to unseat Eric Parker for the #2 spot. It could be quite some time before this group rewards you with actual value.
TIGHT ENDS
Tony Gonzalez – See LJ comments. The Chiefs are “turning and turning in the widening gyre”, and Brodie Croyle ain’t a patch on Trent Green’s ace. Abandon ship!
Zach Miller – The latest word is that he may start as a rookie, which is very impressive. But when you consider the Raiders offense and the fact that Miller will be extremely over-valued as a rookie TE, he looks a bit less appetizing. Throw in his borderline speed, and the odds of Miller being an elite TE on the NFL level decrease even more. Whoever gets him in your league is likely to overpay.
I view Smith as comparable to Rivers. Decent passing skills on a rising organization with a good supporting cast. I don't expect McNabb numbers, but he's a solid pick as a backup dynasty QB. I really doubt his value will decrease this season.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 08:26 AM)
Ladell Betts may have more value in re-draft leagues whereas in dynasty he has Clinton Portis looming over the picture for possibly the remainder of his career. He's mandatory for Portis owners, but I'm not rushing out to acquire him over other promising young backs.
F&L - Thank you for this great thread.
I would target Betts in a dynasty as a buy low guy (for the reasons you mention) especially if he is not owned by the Portis owner. I think Betts is in a great position for Washington to trade him. He has a reasonable contract and Washington is always moving draft picks and players around. I could see Betts being dangled to a team like GB or Ten or any other team that has an injury to their starting RB. This may not happen this year but if Portis is healthy I think Betts will be a starting option somewhere else next year.
Thanks again for all your opinions
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 2 2007, 09:47 PM)
Players rising in value since May/June:
TIGHT ENDS
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
TIGHT ENDS
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
F&L-
Great threat. I do disagree here though. Carr was only a production drainer to wr's2-5. He was fantastic for his checkdown guys. He simply could not go through progressions. He would make his main read, and then check down. If you look at the Texans history, you will see that that either the wr or the rb (be it Billy Miller, Domanick Davis/Williams) always put up great receiving numbers given their tlent.numbers. While I think Daniels will improve as an NFL player, I think that Schaub's ability to go to a second or third progression will mitigate that a bit.
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Aug 5 2007, 12:09 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 2 2007, 09:47 PM)
Players rising in value since May/June:
TIGHT ENDS
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
TIGHT ENDS
Owen Daniels – With the departure of production-draining QB David Carr and no true #2 WR on the Texans offense, Daniels should see a lot of balls coming his way starting this season.
F&L-
Great threat. I do disagree here though. Carr was only a production drainer to wr's2-5. He was fantastic for his checkdown guys. He simply could not go through progressions. He would make his main read, and then check down. If you look at the Texans history, you will see that that either the wr or the rb (be it Billy Miller, Domanick Davis/Williams) always put up great receiving numbers given their tlent.numbers. While I think Daniels will improve as an NFL player, I think that Schaub's ability to go to a second or third progression will mitigate that a bit.
If you're a die-hard Texans fan, rabidfireweasel, I would certainly defer to your knowledge on the intricacies of the passing game. On the other hand, Owen Daniels had one dominant performance last season -- week 8 against Tennessee he had 9 catches for 99 yards and 2 TDs. That also happens to be the one game where Sage Rosenfels had extensive playing time after coming in early for an injured David Carr. Coincidence?
Edit to add: Again, I'm no Texans homer or regular game watcher, but it seems to me that Carr's gradual degradation as a QB impacted all of his WRs/TEs/RBs the past couple of seasons. You mentioned WR's 2-5 as if he didn't negatively impact Andre Johnson. He did. Carr's dink and dunk passing game may have helped Johnson garner a high number of receptions, but it also shackled his big-play ability and TD numbers. My guess is that you may not see a rise in Johnson's or Daniels' reception totals, but you will see a significant improvement in their ability to make plays with a QB who isn't solely dumping off like a Neil O'Donnell or Kelly Holcomb.
QUOTE (messinwithu @ Aug 4 2007, 10:15 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 08:26 AM)
Ladell Betts may have more value in re-draft leagues whereas in dynasty he has Clinton Portis looming over the picture for possibly the remainder of his career. He's mandatory for Portis owners, but I'm not rushing out to acquire him over other promising young backs.
F&L - Thank you for this great thread.
I would target Betts in a dynasty as a buy low guy (for the reasons you mention) especially if he is not owned by the Portis owner. I think Betts is in a great position for Washington to trade him. He has a reasonable contract and Washington is always moving draft picks and players around. I could see Betts being dangled to a team like GB or Ten or any other team that has an injury to their starting RB. This may not happen this year but if Portis is healthy I think Betts will be a starting option somewhere else next year.
Thanks again for all your opinions
Thanks for joining in, messinwithu.
My take is that Betts is not a prime candidate to be traded, and it's mainly because the 'Skins don't trust Portis to stay healthy. Why did Betts re-sign with Washington in the middle of a run of great performances? He could have cashed in on high dollars and a possible starting gig this offseason, but he chose to stay with Washington. If the Redskins didn't value him highly enough to keep him as Portis insurance/best back-up RB in the league, then they wouldn't have made it worth his while to stay. I think both sides came to the conclusion that Washington and Betts are a great fit...and are still of that mindset.
On the other hand, I had a very respected long-time FBG message board poster PM me last spring to tell me that he had impeccable sources claiming a Betts or Portis trade right around the corner. That obviously hasn't happened yet, but it did come from a reliable poster (albeit 3rd hand).
I think that until or unless he is traded, his value is a simple roll of the dice. He's not a player I'm going to roll the dice on...I don't have Portis, and I prefer other targets for dice rolling. But I can see why somebody would roll the dice with him.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 01:38 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 09:11 AM)
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch ....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
The rest of the 1st round:
1. Marshawn Lynch, BUF, RB
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
3. Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
4. Michael Bush, OAK, RB
5. Brandon Jackson, GB, RB
6. Brandon Marshall, DEN, WR
7. Chris Henry, TEN, RB
8. Kenny Irons, CIN, RB
9. Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR
10. Greg Jennings, GB, WR
11. JaMarcus Russell, OAK, QB
12. Anthony Gonzalez, IND, WR
brandon marshall & greg jennings were available?
the lynch bs happened in one of my dynasty leagues as well. QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 5 2007, 01:14 AM)
If you're a die-hard Texans fan, rabidfireweasel, I would certainly defer to your knowledge on the intricacies of the passing game. On the other hand, Owen Daniels had one dominant performance last season -- week 8 against Tennessee he had 9 catches for 99 yards and 2 TDs. That also happens to be the one game where Sage Rosenfels had extensive playing time after coming in early for an injured David Carr. Coincidence?
Edit to add: Again, I'm no Texans homer or regular game watcher, but it seems to me that Carr's gradual degradation as a QB impacted all of his WRs/TEs/RBs the past couple of seasons. You mentioned WR's 2-5 as if he didn't negatively impact Andre Johnson. He did. Carr's dink and dunk passing game may have helped Johnson garner a high number of receptions, but it also shackled his big-play ability and TD numbers. My guess is that you may not see a rise in Johnson's or Daniels' reception totals, but you will see a significant improvement in their ability to make plays with a QB who isn't solely dumping off like a Neil O'Donnell or Kelly Holcomb.
Edit to add: Again, I'm no Texans homer or regular game watcher, but it seems to me that Carr's gradual degradation as a QB impacted all of his WRs/TEs/RBs the past couple of seasons. You mentioned WR's 2-5 as if he didn't negatively impact Andre Johnson. He did. Carr's dink and dunk passing game may have helped Johnson garner a high number of receptions, but it also shackled his big-play ability and TD numbers. My guess is that you may not see a rise in Johnson's or Daniels' reception totals, but you will see a significant improvement in their ability to make plays with a QB who isn't solely dumping off like a Neil O'Donnell or Kelly Holcomb.
I am not a die hard Texans fan, but I lived in Houston from 1997-2005, watched every game, saw some live and have continued to follow the team. I agree that Carr did negatively impact Johnson, but mostly because teams could double and triple team him with no ill effects. I think that Daniels is going to get a lot of attention from D coordinators this year, because even though it is a new regime, the Texans did little to improve their wr corps. I tink many teams will cover Daniels with a safety or even a corner and make someone other than Johnson or Daniels beat man coverage. I am not seeing a lot there who will.
I like Daniels a lot. I like the Texans. I am rooting for him and them. I just think if every intelligent fan can see Daniels look to be their second best receiving threat, so too will most D coordinators. I think he will improve on his numbers, just not by as much as some are thinking.
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Aug 5 2007, 10:21 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 5 2007, 01:14 AM)
If you're a die-hard Texans fan, rabidfireweasel, I would certainly defer to your knowledge on the intricacies of the passing game. On the other hand, Owen Daniels had one dominant performance last season -- week 8 against Tennessee he had 9 catches for 99 yards and 2 TDs. That also happens to be the one game where Sage Rosenfels had extensive playing time after coming in early for an injured David Carr. Coincidence?
Edit to add: Again, I'm no Texans homer or regular game watcher, but it seems to me that Carr's gradual degradation as a QB impacted all of his WRs/TEs/RBs the past couple of seasons. You mentioned WR's 2-5 as if he didn't negatively impact Andre Johnson. He did. Carr's dink and dunk passing game may have helped Johnson garner a high number of receptions, but it also shackled his big-play ability and TD numbers. My guess is that you may not see a rise in Johnson's or Daniels' reception totals, but you will see a significant improvement in their ability to make plays with a QB who isn't solely dumping off like a Neil O'Donnell or Kelly Holcomb.
Edit to add: Again, I'm no Texans homer or regular game watcher, but it seems to me that Carr's gradual degradation as a QB impacted all of his WRs/TEs/RBs the past couple of seasons. You mentioned WR's 2-5 as if he didn't negatively impact Andre Johnson. He did. Carr's dink and dunk passing game may have helped Johnson garner a high number of receptions, but it also shackled his big-play ability and TD numbers. My guess is that you may not see a rise in Johnson's or Daniels' reception totals, but you will see a significant improvement in their ability to make plays with a QB who isn't solely dumping off like a Neil O'Donnell or Kelly Holcomb.
I am not a die hard Texans fan, but I lived in Houston from 1997-2005, watched every game, saw some live and have continued to follow the team. I agree that Carr did negatively impact Johnson, but mostly because teams could double and triple team him with no ill effects. I think that Daniels is going to get a lot of attention from D coordinators this year, because even though it is a new regime, the Texans did little to improve their wr corps. I think many teams will cover Daniels with a safety or even a corner and make someone other than Johnson or Daniels beat man coverage. I am not seeing a lot there who will.
I like Daniels a lot. I like the Texans. I am rooting for him and them. I just think if every intelligent fan can see Daniels look to be their second best receiving threat, so too will most D coordinators. I think he will improve on his numbers, just not by as much as some are thinking.
Good points, here. Thanks for the insight. I think it will be interesting to see (once the games actually start) how much of an impact Schaub has on the passing game and who, if anybody, steps up at WR out of the Walter, Jacoby Jones, McCardell, Mathis, and David Anderson. Pro Football Prospectus pimps David Anderson a bit, but I haven't seen his name mentioned anywhere else. I think it's going to have to be Walter & Jacoby Jones.
How much of their lack of production in the passing game has been David Carr? How much can be blamed on the O-Line? Lack of WR help beyond Johnson?
Rotoworld has two news items of interest for this thread:
I was actually considering taking a flier on Corey Dillon with my last pick in the draft today. I thought he was an interesting gamble as a possible fill-in if somebody's starting RB went down in pre-season. But I think this news brings some closure to the situation as well as Dillon's career.
And what a career it was! As a former Cincinnati resident, I can appreciate just how good he was on some god-awful, soul-draining, talent-starved football teams. He ran his tail off for that inept, moribund franchise for years without any help beyond Willie Anderson...and many of their fans still have the misplaced audacity to loathe him for wanting out. Upon escaping Cincinnati, he gave the Patriots a legit rushing attack and blocked like a madman in the backfield. That Super Bowl ring was well deserved, and he was 100% a team player for them the past few seasons.
I can't pimp Leftwich any harder in this thread, but rotoworld is right: for a high-upside QB2, he is coming at a bargain rate late in fantasy drafts.
This is the thing that always gets me with a talented player coming off a disappointing or injury-marred season. Many dynasty "experts" had Leftwich as a top 9-12 QB going into last season. The same talent is still there. Leftwich didn't get any worse just because he injured his ankle and Del Rio is a bonehead. Sure, some caution is necessary, but dropping him into the 20's among QBs? Putting guys like Losman and Grossman ahead of him? That's just short-sighted.
Watch out, AFC! The Jags are going to roll this year.
Edit - 8/8/07 Leftwich update from rotoworld:
QUOTE
Corey Dillon says "the window is closed" and there "is no doubt in (his) mind" that his playing days are through.
"I haven't announced it publicly," Dillon told the Boston Globe. "But I will not play football again. If I really wanted to, I think I could run for 800, 900 yards. I'd share carries, or take the load if needed. But for me, the risk is way greater than the reward. (The AFC Championship) was the last game I played."
"I haven't announced it publicly," Dillon told the Boston Globe. "But I will not play football again. If I really wanted to, I think I could run for 800, 900 yards. I'd share carries, or take the load if needed. But for me, the risk is way greater than the reward. (The AFC Championship) was the last game I played."
I was actually considering taking a flier on Corey Dillon with my last pick in the draft today. I thought he was an interesting gamble as a possible fill-in if somebody's starting RB went down in pre-season. But I think this news brings some closure to the situation as well as Dillon's career.
And what a career it was! As a former Cincinnati resident, I can appreciate just how good he was on some god-awful, soul-draining, talent-starved football teams. He ran his tail off for that inept, moribund franchise for years without any help beyond Willie Anderson...and many of their fans still have the misplaced audacity to loathe him for wanting out. Upon escaping Cincinnati, he gave the Patriots a legit rushing attack and blocked like a madman in the backfield. That Super Bowl ring was well deserved, and he was 100% a team player for them the past few seasons.
QUOTE
Byron Leftwich completed 12-of-17 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown in Saturday's intrasquad scrimmage.
David Garrard threw for 125 yards and a TD on 9-of-16 passing, as the Jags' offense crushed the defense 46-13. Byron will be the team's Week 1 starter and, for a high-upside QB2, is coming at a bargain rate late in fantasy drafts.
David Garrard threw for 125 yards and a TD on 9-of-16 passing, as the Jags' offense crushed the defense 46-13. Byron will be the team's Week 1 starter and, for a high-upside QB2, is coming at a bargain rate late in fantasy drafts.
I can't pimp Leftwich any harder in this thread, but rotoworld is right: for a high-upside QB2, he is coming at a bargain rate late in fantasy drafts.
This is the thing that always gets me with a talented player coming off a disappointing or injury-marred season. Many dynasty "experts" had Leftwich as a top 9-12 QB going into last season. The same talent is still there. Leftwich didn't get any worse just because he injured his ankle and Del Rio is a bonehead. Sure, some caution is necessary, but dropping him into the 20's among QBs? Putting guys like Losman and Grossman ahead of him? That's just short-sighted.
Watch out, AFC! The Jags are going to roll this year.
Edit - 8/8/07 Leftwich update from rotoworld:
QUOTE
NFL Network's Adam Schefter reports Byron Leftwich has been the most impressive player at Jaguars training camp.
The Jaguars are reportedly more than satisfied with how Leftwich has worked with QBs coach Mike Shula and impressed by his improved mobility, which likely means Big Byron is fully recovered from ankle surgery. Leftwich continues to be undervalued as a high-upside QB2 in early fantasy drafts.
The Jaguars are reportedly more than satisfied with how Leftwich has worked with QBs coach Mike Shula and impressed by his improved mobility, which likely means Big Byron is fully recovered from ankle surgery. Leftwich continues to be undervalued as a high-upside QB2 in early fantasy drafts.
QUOTE
David Garrard threw for 125 yards and a TD on 9-of-16 passing, as the Jags' offense crushed the defense 46-13.
Something about this made me laugh, was this game ever supposed to be close? QUOTE (DA RAIDERS @ Aug 5 2007, 05:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 01:38 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Aug 3 2007, 09:11 AM)
On a completely unrelated note, we just started our rookie/free agent draft in my league that's been around since '99.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch ....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas.
Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
1st pick: Marshawn Lynch
....and that's how you end up with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league, fellas. Threw the whole draft off. The guy drafting 2nd has been counting on Calvin Johnson for months.
The rest of the 1st round:
1. Marshawn Lynch, BUF, RB
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
3. Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
4. Michael Bush, OAK, RB
5. Brandon Jackson, GB, RB
6. Brandon Marshall, DEN, WR
7. Chris Henry, TEN, RB
8. Kenny Irons, CIN, RB
9. Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR
10. Greg Jennings, GB, WR
11. JaMarcus Russell, OAK, QB
12. Anthony Gonzalez, IND, WR
brandon marshall & greg jennings were available?
the lynch bs happened in one of my dynasty leagues as well.The format is a little different in this league. It is a 12 owner league, but it's not "true" dynasty. Each owner keeps 11 players every year with a max. of 4 at any one position. It's also a playoff league, so players on perennial contenders are worth more and players on doormats aren't worth quite as much.
I traded my first round pick & LaMont Jordan early last season for Lee Evans & Jamal Lewis. Late first round picks are extremely over-valued in dynasty leagues. I've been trading my late first rounder for key playoff chips for as long as I can remember.
Here's how my draft went:
2.11 -- Kevin Curtis, WR, PHI [best player available]
3.04 -- Robert Meachem, WR, NO [got him a round and a half after Bowe went]
4.10 -- Tony Hunt, RB, PHI [Westbrook insurance + promising rookie]
5.07 -- Brian Leonard, RB, STL [S-Jax insurance + promising rookie]
8.09 -- Owen Daniels, TE, HOU [Tight ends get extra points in this league making Owens roughly equal to a Greg Jennings type in value]
9.08 -- Tony Scheffler, TE, DEN [Ditto on tight ends...loved this pick]
10.04 -- Kolby Smith, RB, KC [rookie flier with LJ hold-out possibility]
11.04 -- Desmond Clark, TE, CHI [purely for playoff league purposes...went about 7 rounds after Greg Olsen]
12.04 -- Kellen Clemens, QB, NYJ [went 4 rounds after Beck, 7 rounds after Stanton & Kolb]
13.03 -- Packers Defense, GB [2nd defense]
21-man rosters. Here are my 11 keepers:
QB - Tom Brady, NE
QB - Byron Leftwich, JAX
RB - Steven Jackson, STL
RB - Brian Westbrook, PHI
RB - Jamal Lewis, CLE
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
WR - Lee Evans, BUF
WR - Vincent Jackson, SD
TE - Ben Watson, NE
K - Robbie Gould, CHI
D - Bears, CHI
Sleeper in the GB backfield?
Per rotoworld:
Jackson has been underwhelming in camp while Morency is banged up and seen as a timeshare back. Wynn has the size and ability to steal some major carries if things break right for him the rest of the way. He's clearly on my radar, and I'm bumping him up the rankings.
Per rotoworld:
QUOTE
The Packers are impressed by DeShawn Wynn's ability to pick up the blitz.
It's a key skill, especially for rookies. Coach Mike McCarthy says Wynn has "picked up the (zone-blocking) scheme rapidly" after dealing with a stomach virus early in camp. At 220+ pounds with 4.45 speed, Wynn is an intriguing talent and could challenge for time right away if he stays healthy.
It's a key skill, especially for rookies. Coach Mike McCarthy says Wynn has "picked up the (zone-blocking) scheme rapidly" after dealing with a stomach virus early in camp. At 220+ pounds with 4.45 speed, Wynn is an intriguing talent and could challenge for time right away if he stays healthy.
Jackson has been underwhelming in camp while Morency is banged up and seen as a timeshare back. Wynn has the size and ability to steal some major carries if things break right for him the rest of the way. He's clearly on my radar, and I'm bumping him up the rankings.
Random Thoughts:
- Brian Leonard obviously showed some versatility and some skill, but there's been a severe over-reaction to a couple of quarter's worth of play against some poor defenders. His value moves up in my eyes because he showed the skill-set that would put him in line for full-time work should anything happen to S-Jax (gasp!), but he's not going to take a bite out of S-Jax's dynasty value. Grab him as a handcuff in dynasty leagues if you can, but don't wring your hands about his effect on a player who just led the league in total yards and scored 16 TDs...in addition to completely dominating the NFL in the last month of the season.
- I'm moving Tarvaris Jackson ahead of guys like Grossman & Losman. I've said in the past that I liked Jackson's chance to become an impact fantasy player better than Grossman or Losman's chances. I just don't believe the latter duo will ever be anything more than spot-starters whereas the former's athleticism and running ability could make him playable in a way that Aaron Brooks was playable for a few years. You can have fantasy value even if accuracy is not a big part of your game.
- I had Mike Bell as the #2 in DEN all along. Sapp may see occasional work, but common sense once again beat out the training camp din...as predicted. What's even more interesting to me is finding out what Mike Bell does to Travis Henry's value. Henry has never been a good receiver, so Bell is an obvious threat to Henry's 3rd down work. Bell also worked impressively in short-down situations last season, so he or the larger Sapp could easily manage their way into the goal-line picture. Travis Henry got a nice signing bonus this off-season, but I think it would behoove dynasty owners to keep in mind that this off-season's market was the most drastically over-inflated in NFL history. I am far from sold on Travis Henry's dynasty value.
- Edgerrin James' dynasty value is plummeting. Whisenhunt is going to get other backs involved, and Marcel Shipp is going to see significant work this season especially near the goal-line where Edge has struggled continually. Too many fantasy owners are giving Edge a mulligan on last season's pitiful performance, but let's not forget that he's no longer a RB in his prime. With his workload history and age, he's just as good of a bet to keep going downhill as he is to bounce back. The lack of explosiveness and major decline in the passing game are ominous signs.
- It's been said around here that a healthy Kevin Jones is undoubtedly a better RB than Tatum Bell...it's also been said by Jones himself. I'm not sure why that statement hasn't been challenged. Jones has a clear edge as a receiver. Where else does he have an edge? He's certainly not been a better runner as he's been one of the bottom feeders in effectiveness as a runner since he's come into the league. In fact, Tatum Bell has averaged close to a full yard more per carry than Jones since they entered the league together in '04. Jones has never scored more than 6 TDs in a season, and there's no reason to believe he's going to be a goal-line monster in the future. More problematic for Jones is the legit concern that he will never return to the back that he was before the latest injury, as well as the even more well-placed concern that he'll continue to fight injuries the rest of his career. I realize Tatum Bell has some obvious weaknesses as a RB, but the oft-injured and oft-ineffective Jones is getting a free pass from too many in their assessment of the Lions' RB situation.
- Can we can the Greg Jones talk? I've never understood the widespread assumption that "Greg Jones is going to steal goal-line carries from MJD." Why would he? MJD excelled in that role, and Greg Jones is coming off a 2nd ACL injury. The Jags will be looking for more ways to get MJD involved. This is another situation where the common sense rule applies: After MJD's hugely impressive rookie season, you believe they're going to find ways to take the ball out of this playmaker's hands and put it into the hands of an underwhelming plodder fresh off a major knee injury? Gee, can you run my dynasty team too? Greg Jones has averaged 3.5 YPC with a career high of 4 TDs in his injury-marred career. He was used to patch over some holes when Fred Taylor was injured and/or ineffective a couple of years ago. Why would common sense tell you that a player with his profile will steal carries from a dynamo who averaged 5.7 YPC, 9.5 YPR, and scored from everywhere on the field including the redzone? It wouldn't.
- Re: the JAX WR situation, I still believe common sense will win out over early camp din. I can't see Williams and Jones not lining up as starters in Week One.
- Once again, Ronnie Brown is giving me more trouble than any other player. I still believe in the talent, but that offense is a joke right now. We'll see if they can put anything together over the next few weeks, but I think he moves down a few notches in my eyes.
Quick Takes:
- DeAngelo Williams' goal-line issues scare me. Granted, Foster is atrocious in the redzone as well, but the Panthers seem concerned enough about Williams' short-yardage ability to hand the job to someone else.
- Devin Hester is a non-entity as an offensive fantasy player.
- Cedric Benson owners beware: Adrian Peterson will play a significant role in the offense.
- Ronald Curry is a better player than Jerry Porter.
- Don't go anywhere near Jeff Garcia ever again.
- D.J. Hackett is the WR to own in Seattle.
- Frank Gore is a beast with a 4-week hand injury who will return in time to start the season opener. Why that affects his value is beyond me.
- Brandon Jackson is a part-time RB.
- Last year was Chad Pennington's first full 16-game season. He's going to go down with an injury at some point, and Kellen Clemens isn't giving the job back once he gets it.
- I've got to get my hands on the rookie Adrian Peterson, and now is the time to do it while people still believe Chester Taylor is some kind of roadblock to his success. I haven't figured out how I'm going to get him yet, but roster juggling has commenced...
- Stay far away from all Kansas City Chiefs for at least a couple of years.
- Brian Leonard obviously showed some versatility and some skill, but there's been a severe over-reaction to a couple of quarter's worth of play against some poor defenders. His value moves up in my eyes because he showed the skill-set that would put him in line for full-time work should anything happen to S-Jax (gasp!), but he's not going to take a bite out of S-Jax's dynasty value. Grab him as a handcuff in dynasty leagues if you can, but don't wring your hands about his effect on a player who just led the league in total yards and scored 16 TDs...in addition to completely dominating the NFL in the last month of the season.
- I'm moving Tarvaris Jackson ahead of guys like Grossman & Losman. I've said in the past that I liked Jackson's chance to become an impact fantasy player better than Grossman or Losman's chances. I just don't believe the latter duo will ever be anything more than spot-starters whereas the former's athleticism and running ability could make him playable in a way that Aaron Brooks was playable for a few years. You can have fantasy value even if accuracy is not a big part of your game.
- I had Mike Bell as the #2 in DEN all along. Sapp may see occasional work, but common sense once again beat out the training camp din...as predicted. What's even more interesting to me is finding out what Mike Bell does to Travis Henry's value. Henry has never been a good receiver, so Bell is an obvious threat to Henry's 3rd down work. Bell also worked impressively in short-down situations last season, so he or the larger Sapp could easily manage their way into the goal-line picture. Travis Henry got a nice signing bonus this off-season, but I think it would behoove dynasty owners to keep in mind that this off-season's market was the most drastically over-inflated in NFL history. I am far from sold on Travis Henry's dynasty value.
- Edgerrin James' dynasty value is plummeting. Whisenhunt is going to get other backs involved, and Marcel Shipp is going to see significant work this season especially near the goal-line where Edge has struggled continually. Too many fantasy owners are giving Edge a mulligan on last season's pitiful performance, but let's not forget that he's no longer a RB in his prime. With his workload history and age, he's just as good of a bet to keep going downhill as he is to bounce back. The lack of explosiveness and major decline in the passing game are ominous signs.
- It's been said around here that a healthy Kevin Jones is undoubtedly a better RB than Tatum Bell...it's also been said by Jones himself. I'm not sure why that statement hasn't been challenged. Jones has a clear edge as a receiver. Where else does he have an edge? He's certainly not been a better runner as he's been one of the bottom feeders in effectiveness as a runner since he's come into the league. In fact, Tatum Bell has averaged close to a full yard more per carry than Jones since they entered the league together in '04. Jones has never scored more than 6 TDs in a season, and there's no reason to believe he's going to be a goal-line monster in the future. More problematic for Jones is the legit concern that he will never return to the back that he was before the latest injury, as well as the even more well-placed concern that he'll continue to fight injuries the rest of his career. I realize Tatum Bell has some obvious weaknesses as a RB, but the oft-injured and oft-ineffective Jones is getting a free pass from too many in their assessment of the Lions' RB situation.
- Can we can the Greg Jones talk? I've never understood the widespread assumption that "Greg Jones is going to steal goal-line carries from MJD." Why would he? MJD excelled in that role, and Greg Jones is coming off a 2nd ACL injury. The Jags will be looking for more ways to get MJD involved. This is another situation where the common sense rule applies: After MJD's hugely impressive rookie season, you believe they're going to find ways to take the ball out of this playmaker's hands and put it into the hands of an underwhelming plodder fresh off a major knee injury? Gee, can you run my dynasty team too? Greg Jones has averaged 3.5 YPC with a career high of 4 TDs in his injury-marred career. He was used to patch over some holes when Fred Taylor was injured and/or ineffective a couple of years ago. Why would common sense tell you that a player with his profile will steal carries from a dynamo who averaged 5.7 YPC, 9.5 YPR, and scored from everywhere on the field including the redzone? It wouldn't.
- Re: the JAX WR situation, I still believe common sense will win out over early camp din. I can't see Williams and Jones not lining up as starters in Week One.
- Once again, Ronnie Brown is giving me more trouble than any other player. I still believe in the talent, but that offense is a joke right now. We'll see if they can put anything together over the next few weeks, but I think he moves down a few notches in my eyes.
Quick Takes:
- DeAngelo Williams' goal-line issues scare me. Granted, Foster is atrocious in the redzone as well, but the Panthers seem concerned enough about Williams' short-yardage ability to hand the job to someone else.
- Devin Hester is a non-entity as an offensive fantasy player.
- Cedric Benson owners beware: Adrian Peterson will play a significant role in the offense.
- Ronald Curry is a better player than Jerry Porter.
- Don't go anywhere near Jeff Garcia ever again.
- D.J. Hackett is the WR to own in Seattle.
- Frank Gore is a beast with a 4-week hand injury who will return in time to start the season opener. Why that affects his value is beyond me.
- Brandon Jackson is a part-time RB.
- Last year was Chad Pennington's first full 16-game season. He's going to go down with an injury at some point, and Kellen Clemens isn't giving the job back once he gets it.
- I've got to get my hands on the rookie Adrian Peterson, and now is the time to do it while people still believe Chester Taylor is some kind of roadblock to his success. I haven't figured out how I'm going to get him yet, but roster juggling has commenced...
- Stay far away from all Kansas City Chiefs for at least a couple of years.
F&L your random thoughts are great. Most of them were pretty much what I was thinking.
I do have a question on one of them. Last year Bush was heralded as a back that you see maybe once a decade. Is Adrian Peterson that same kind of back? Better? Worse? I never liked him just because I thought this was a very weak year for RBs and thought his value was over-hyped due to the lack at the position. But I keep hearing too many good things about him. Is he that good? I also stayed away from him because it sounded like he is very tall (I heard 6'2") and I tend to believe that taller backs are more likely to be injured. Thoguhts?
I do have a question on one of them. Last year Bush was heralded as a back that you see maybe once a decade. Is Adrian Peterson that same kind of back? Better? Worse? I never liked him just because I thought this was a very weak year for RBs and thought his value was over-hyped due to the lack at the position. But I keep hearing too many good things about him. Is he that good? I also stayed away from him because it sounded like he is very tall (I heard 6'2") and I tend to believe that taller backs are more likely to be injured. Thoguhts?
QUOTE
- Stay far away from all Kansas City Chiefs for at least a couple of years
Agreed. This team is heading in the wrong direction.
In a non-ppr redraft that started this weekend, LJ went at 1.07 behind LT, SJ, Addai, Bush, Gore, T Henry.
Agreed. This team is heading in the wrong direction.
QUOTE (Biabreakable @ Aug 13 2007, 11:05 AM)
QUOTE
- Stay far away from all Kansas City Chiefs for at least a couple of years
Agreed. This team is heading in the wrong direction.
QUOTE (spec1alk @ Aug 13 2007, 12:52 PM)
F&L your random thoughts are great. Most of them were pretty much what I was thinking.
I do have a question on one of them. Last year Bush was heralded as a back that you see maybe once a decade. Is Adrian Peterson that same kind of back? Better? Worse? I never liked him just because I thought this was a very weak year for RBs and thought his value was over-hyped due to the lack at the position. But I keep hearing too many good things about him. Is he that good? I also stayed away from him because it sounded like he is very tall (I heard 6'2") and I tend to believe that taller backs are more likely to be injured. Thoguhts?
I do have a question on one of them. Last year Bush was heralded as a back that you see maybe once a decade. Is Adrian Peterson that same kind of back? Better? Worse? I never liked him just because I thought this was a very weak year for RBs and thought his value was over-hyped due to the lack at the position. But I keep hearing too many good things about him. Is he that good? I also stayed away from him because it sounded like he is very tall (I heard 6'2") and I tend to believe that taller backs are more likely to be injured. Thoguhts?
Thanks, spec1alk.
I didn't herald Bush as such. I thought he was a dynamic, skilled combo back. It wasn't his ability as a dominating rusher that had people salivating. It was his skill set and home-run hitting ability. He's a different kind of RB than your traditional workhorse, and he's drawn comparisons to a lot of backs from Gale Sayers to Marshall Faulk to Brian Westbrook. I do like Reggie Bush a lot, and I think now is also a good time to try to trade for him. But I did not think he was a once-a-generation talent. I considered him a legit high first round talent, but not in the same league as Marshall Faulk as a runner. The question for me was: if he's not quite as good as Faulk as a runner, can he make up the difference in other areas? That remains to be seen.
When I saw Adrian Peterson as a freshman at Oklahoma, he was the best pure rusher I'd seen since at least Marshall Faulk at San Diego St. [edited] and maybe even Bo Jackson at Auburn or Hershel Walker at Georgia. As a runner, he's a special talent and that was evident from the beginning of his collegiate career. I've considered him a beast since the first time I saw him, so I would certainly disagree with your assessment that he's simply over-hyped in a weak crop of rookie RBs (which is the first I've heard of that theory).
How tall is Steven Jackson? Larry Johnson? Corey Dillon? They're all built similarly to Adrian Peterson. Is it tall backs that are injury-prone, or is it the way they run? Or...is it all bunk?
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