QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 09:53 AM) 
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 13 2007, 01:16 AM)
I respect Anthony as much as anyone on these boards, but I have to say that there is a bit of the fan speaking there. I mean, come on...this guy was supposed to be the best WR prospect EVER--so five hundred yards is pretty much a big turd. I still think he will be good but I never believed the hype that he was best thing since sliced bread to begin with...peoeple said the same thing about Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson and Mike Williams.
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.
At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's.
I was going to start a dynasty buy/sell thread last week, but just got lazy. CJ along with Anthony Gonzalez were going to be at the top of my list for WR's. I am hoping they dont have any big games before the trading opens back up in my leagues. This time of year is great for trading current rookie picks(which are overvalued now) for players who were drafted recently, but may be underperforming. This is particularly effective when it comes to WR's, but works for all positions. Some other players i will be targeting are Matt Leinart, Chad Jackson, Reggie Bush and Deangelo Williams amongst others.
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 09:53 AM)
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year.
Nicely said.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 13 2007, 11:14 AM)
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 13 2007, 01:16 AM)
I respect Anthony as much as anyone on these boards, but I have to say that there is a bit of the fan speaking there. I mean, come on...this guy was supposed to be the best WR prospect EVER--so five hundred yards is pretty much a big turd. I still think he will be good but I never believed the hype that he was best thing since sliced bread to begin with...peoeple said the same thing about Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson and Mike Williams.
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.
At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's.
I was going to start a dynasty buy/sell thread last week, but just got lazy. CJ along with Anthony Gonzalez were going to be at the top of my list for WR's. I am hoping they dont have any big games before the trading opens back up in my leagues. This time of year is great for trading current rookie picks(which are overvalued now) for players who were drafted recently, but may be underperforming. This is particularly effective when it comes to WR's, but works for all positions. Some other players i will be targeting are Matt Leinart, Chad Jackson, Reggie Bush and Deangelo Williams amongst others.
I would add Sidney Rice to your list. He performed well for a few weeks and I hope he cools off a little down the stretch. A lof of FF'ers tend to overvalue the last part of the year in projecting the next year. If he flies under the radar from here on out I think he'll be a great target for next year in dynasty leagues.
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 13 2007, 11:14 AM)
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 13 2007, 01:16 AM)
I respect Anthony as much as anyone on these boards, but I have to say that there is a bit of the fan speaking there. I mean, come on...this guy was supposed to be the best WR prospect EVER--so five hundred yards is pretty much a big turd. I still think he will be good but I never believed the hype that he was best thing since sliced bread to begin with...peoeple said the same thing about Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson and Mike Williams.
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.
At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's.
I was going to start a dynasty buy/sell thread last week, but just got lazy. CJ along with Anthony Gonzalez were going to be at the top of my list for WR's. I am hoping they dont have any big games before the trading opens back up in my leagues. This time of year is great for trading current rookie picks(which are overvalued now) for players who were drafted recently, but may be underperforming. This is particularly effective when it comes to WR's, but works for all positions. Some other players i will be targeting are Matt Leinart, Chad Jackson, Reggie Bush and Deangelo Williams amongst others.
I would add Sidney Rice to your list. He performed well for a few weeks and I hope he cools off a little down the stretch. A lof of FF'ers tend to overvalue the last part of the year in projecting the next year. If he flies under the radar from here on out I think he'll be a great target for next year in dynasty leagues.
I do like him, but it seems most of his owners are higher on him than i am right now. He certainly has the talent, but i dont like his situation in the near future. I love Gonzalez, i am hoping we see Harrison before the year ends so i can get him cheap after the season ends. I think he is a top 10-15 dynasty WR once Harrison is out of the picture, which i think will happen sooner than later.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 13 2007, 10:48 AM)
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 13 2007, 11:14 AM)
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 13 2007, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 13 2007, 01:16 AM)
I respect Anthony as much as anyone on these boards, but I have to say that there is a bit of the fan speaking there. I mean, come on...this guy was supposed to be the best WR prospect EVER--so five hundred yards is pretty much a big turd. I still think he will be good but I never believed the hype that he was best thing since sliced bread to begin with...peoeple said the same thing about Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson and Mike Williams.
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.
At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's.
I was going to start a dynasty buy/sell thread last week, but just got lazy. CJ along with Anthony Gonzalez were going to be at the top of my list for WR's. I am hoping they dont have any big games before the trading opens back up in my leagues. This time of year is great for trading current rookie picks(which are overvalued now) for players who were drafted recently, but may be underperforming. This is particularly effective when it comes to WR's, but works for all positions. Some other players i will be targeting are Matt Leinart, Chad Jackson, Reggie Bush and Deangelo Williams amongst others.
I would add Sidney Rice to your list. He performed well for a few weeks and I hope he cools off a little down the stretch. A lof of FF'ers tend to overvalue the last part of the year in projecting the next year. If he flies under the radar from here on out I think he'll be a great target for next year in dynasty leagues.
I do like him, but it seems most of his owners are higher on him than i am right now. He certainly has the talent, but i dont like his situation in the near future. I love Gonzalez, i am hoping we see Harrison before the year ends so i can get him cheap after the season ends. I think he is a top 10-15 dynasty WR once Harrison is out of the picture, which i think will happen sooner than later.
Keep in mind that in today's NFL, situations change very quickly. I see Minnesota as an up and coming team and Rice as a good value. I like Gonzalez but think he'll be overvalued because of his situation.
Just my $.02.
QUOTE (Sigmund Bloom @ Dec 13 2007, 01:19 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 12 2007, 09:27 AM)
I am interested in what people think of Jeff King as a longterm dynasty TE. I didn't know anything about him until the staff here started to say good things about him this preseason. He has done well at times this year with a few great games and is like 14th overall in PPR. That's ok but not worth keeping on a roster unless he can take the next step to be in the top 10. So, the question in my mind is does he have the ability to be a top 10 TE if CAR improves its QB play? What is his ceiling and how do we know that?
He's at his ceiling - he's not that athletic, not a special red zone target or a guy with the burst to rip the seams and stretch the D. Other than the Indy game, when David Carr became locked on King in the second half, King has basically blended into the mediocre TE mix of guys like McMichael, Baker, and Eric Johnson.
What do people think about Zach Miller? I was not high on him in rookie drafts this year but he looked pretty good in the last Oakland game I watched. What is his ceiling?
QUOTE (Homer @ Dec 12 2007, 01:56 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 12 2007, 12:47 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 12 2007, 01:36 AM)
QUOTE (Homer @ Dec 12 2007, 01:28 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 12 2007, 12:24 AM)
but take a look at the guys ranked below him. Who are obvious candidates to be moved above him?
Heath Miller should be ranked above Vernon Davis, IMO. He's far more productive right now and still has upside.
Do you believe that Miller has a better chance than Davis of ever cracking the top 3 in his career?
Exactly.
Not to mention "far more productive right now" is hyperbolic. Heath Miller is averaging 39.6 yards per game with a tremendous QB in a very good offense while Vernon Davis is averaging 37.6 yards per game in the worst offense in the league.
Do you all play in leagues that don't count TD's?
And Miller's yardage figure up 15 yards a game from last year.
TD's are insanely volatile from week to week and from season to season. The perfect example of this is Daniel Graham. A lot of people forget about just how amazing he was to begin 2004. He wound up scoring 5 TDs in his first 4 games (including at least one score in each game). The problem? Well, for starters, after scoring 5 in 4 games, he has 9 TDs in the 46 games since (would project out to 3 over a full 16-game season). Now, I know that hindsight is 20/20, but there were indicators in place which suggested that Graham's 4-game stretch was more likely to be a fluke than any sign of things to come. For starters, he only averaged 29 yards per game during that 4-game stretch. In addition, he only averaged 3 catches, and only had one game with more than 2 grabs (including games with 2 catches that both went for scores, and another game with 1 grab for a 1-yard TD).
The moral of the story? TDs are drastically overrated in fantasy football, because they are the single thing that MOST impacts past performance, and also the single thing that LEAST predicts future performance. Given two players with similar usage patterns, I'd rather have the one averaging more yards and fewer scores than the one averaging more scores and fewer yards. Now, the "similar usage patterns" thing can sometimes become a sticking point, especially at TE where usage patterns are more disparate than at any other position in fantasy football, I'm just trying to illustrate why F&L is ignoring TDs when comparing Miller to Davis, without even resorting to arguments about how well Davis has done in a historically inept 49ers offense.
I don't mean to step on F&L's toes here, but here's something that I saw on ESPN.com that absolutely shocked me.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=3142771
Now, I like Cutler as much as the next guy, but that's a leap that I wasn't anywhere NEAR ready to make. Calling him a better young QB than Romo, Roethlisberger, or Carson Palmer? That's a total shock to me. Total shock.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=3142771
QUOTE
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Dallas' Tony Romo impress with their ability to strike downfield after leaving the pocket.
Cincinnati's Carson Palmer dazzles with his arm strength and his ability to sniff out opposing defenses.
Houston's Matt Schaub has a better feel for the pocket than most, while Jacksonville's David Garrard brings poise and a high football IQ to the quarterback position.
For all their differences, most of the NFL's promising young quarterbacks share a striking similarity in the eyes of scouts and coaches: They can't touch Denver's Jay Cutler for sheer potential.
Asked to evaluate 11 young starters, experts singled out Cutler as the quarterback most likely to reach the elite status currently shared by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
"The kid in Denver, to me he is the future of this league," an AFC pro scout said.
"I would jump on that boat," an NFC personnel director said. "He isn't quite there, but you see those flashes of a guy who, once he has the whole playbook in his mind and he's made all the mistakes he needs to make in learning it, man, he's going to be a special player."
ESPN.com granted anonymity to two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach in exchange for unvarnished evaluations.
Cincinnati's Carson Palmer dazzles with his arm strength and his ability to sniff out opposing defenses.
Houston's Matt Schaub has a better feel for the pocket than most, while Jacksonville's David Garrard brings poise and a high football IQ to the quarterback position.
For all their differences, most of the NFL's promising young quarterbacks share a striking similarity in the eyes of scouts and coaches: They can't touch Denver's Jay Cutler for sheer potential.
Asked to evaluate 11 young starters, experts singled out Cutler as the quarterback most likely to reach the elite status currently shared by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
"The kid in Denver, to me he is the future of this league," an AFC pro scout said.
"I would jump on that boat," an NFC personnel director said. "He isn't quite there, but you see those flashes of a guy who, once he has the whole playbook in his mind and he's made all the mistakes he needs to make in learning it, man, he's going to be a special player."
ESPN.com granted anonymity to two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach in exchange for unvarnished evaluations.
Now, I like Cutler as much as the next guy, but that's a leap that I wasn't anywhere NEAR ready to make. Calling him a better young QB than Romo, Roethlisberger, or Carson Palmer? That's a total shock to me. Total shock.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 13 2007, 08:25 PM)
I don't mean to step on F&L's toes here, but here's something that I saw on ESPN.com that absolutely shocked me.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=3142771
Now, I like Cutler as much as the next guy, but that's a leap that I wasn't anywhere NEAR ready to make. Calling him a better young QB than Romo, Roethlisberger, or Carson Palmer? That's a total shock to me. Total shock.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=3142771
QUOTE
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Dallas' Tony Romo impress with their ability to strike downfield after leaving the pocket.
Cincinnati's Carson Palmer dazzles with his arm strength and his ability to sniff out opposing defenses.
Houston's Matt Schaub has a better feel for the pocket than most, while Jacksonville's David Garrard brings poise and a high football IQ to the quarterback position.
For all their differences, most of the NFL's promising young quarterbacks share a striking similarity in the eyes of scouts and coaches: They can't touch Denver's Jay Cutler for sheer potential.
Asked to evaluate 11 young starters, experts singled out Cutler as the quarterback most likely to reach the elite status currently shared by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
"The kid in Denver, to me he is the future of this league," an AFC pro scout said.
"I would jump on that boat," an NFC personnel director said. "He isn't quite there, but you see those flashes of a guy who, once he has the whole playbook in his mind and he's made all the mistakes he needs to make in learning it, man, he's going to be a special player."
ESPN.com granted anonymity to two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach in exchange for unvarnished evaluations.
Cincinnati's Carson Palmer dazzles with his arm strength and his ability to sniff out opposing defenses.
Houston's Matt Schaub has a better feel for the pocket than most, while Jacksonville's David Garrard brings poise and a high football IQ to the quarterback position.
For all their differences, most of the NFL's promising young quarterbacks share a striking similarity in the eyes of scouts and coaches: They can't touch Denver's Jay Cutler for sheer potential.
Asked to evaluate 11 young starters, experts singled out Cutler as the quarterback most likely to reach the elite status currently shared by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
"The kid in Denver, to me he is the future of this league," an AFC pro scout said.
"I would jump on that boat," an NFC personnel director said. "He isn't quite there, but you see those flashes of a guy who, once he has the whole playbook in his mind and he's made all the mistakes he needs to make in learning it, man, he's going to be a special player."
ESPN.com granted anonymity to two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach in exchange for unvarnished evaluations.
Now, I like Cutler as much as the next guy, but that's a leap that I wasn't anywhere NEAR ready to make. Calling him a better young QB than Romo, Roethlisberger, or Carson Palmer? That's a total shock to me. Total shock.
Not stepping on my toes at all, SSOG. This is the kind of material on which the thread thrives. Thanks for posting it.
I think we're all aware that one scout is going to grade a player differently than other scouts, but this speaks very highly to Cutler's value.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
Oh, and
at "the kid in Denver." No matter the sport, it's scout code that you can't ever have "the kid's" name on the tip of your tongue at any point. If you know a kid's name, then you must not be evaluating enough kids. Whatever you do, don't lose face with the other scouts by acting like a human rolodex as opposed to a guy who just grades talent unemotionally like a meat inspector. QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 08:44 PM)
I think we're all aware that one scout is going to grade a player differently than other scouts, but this speaks very highly to Cutler's value.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
I know it's not anywhere near as definitive as ESPN would have you believe, but still... yesterday, I wouldn't have believed you could have asked five of ANYONE, let alone five professional observers of football, and come up with a consensus that Cutler was more likely to be the next Manning/Brady than Palmer, Roeth, or Romo. Anyone other than those three, yeah. It's not like I'd trade Roethlisberger for Cutler at this point, regardless of what they said, I was just very surprised by the result.
Edit: FWIW, I don't see it. Like I said, anyone other than Palmer, Romo, or Roeth. Heck, I could even possibly see him over Romo or Roeth, but Palmer? I guess that's why these guys are making the big bucks.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 13 2007, 09:05 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 08:44 PM)
I think we're all aware that one scout is going to grade a player differently than other scouts, but this speaks very highly to Cutler's value.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
I know it's not anywhere near as definitive as ESPN would have you believe, but still... yesterday, I wouldn't have believed you could have asked five of ANYONE, let alone five professional observers of football, and come up with a consensus that Cutler was more likely to be the next Manning/Brady than Palmer, Roeth, or Romo. Anyone other than those three, yeah. It's not like I'd trade Roethlisberger for Cutler at this point, regardless of what they said, I was just very surprised by the result.
Edit: FWIW, I don't see it. Like I said, anyone other than Palmer, Romo, or Roeth. Heck, I could even possibly see him over Romo or Roeth, but Palmer? I guess that's why these guys are making the big bucks.
I've always liked Roethlisberger as a NFL QB better than Palmer myself. I think he's the 3rd best QB in football and still vastly underrated.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 09:18 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 13 2007, 09:05 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 08:44 PM)
I think we're all aware that one scout is going to grade a player differently than other scouts, but this speaks very highly to Cutler's value.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
I know it's not anywhere near as definitive as ESPN would have you believe, but still... yesterday, I wouldn't have believed you could have asked five of ANYONE, let alone five professional observers of football, and come up with a consensus that Cutler was more likely to be the next Manning/Brady than Palmer, Roeth, or Romo. Anyone other than those three, yeah. It's not like I'd trade Roethlisberger for Cutler at this point, regardless of what they said, I was just very surprised by the result.
Edit: FWIW, I don't see it. Like I said, anyone other than Palmer, Romo, or Roeth. Heck, I could even possibly see him over Romo or Roeth, but Palmer? I guess that's why these guys are making the big bucks.
I've always liked Roethlisberger as a NFL QB better than Palmer myself. I think he's the 3rd best QB in football and still vastly underrated.
I'd talk Roeth over Palmer, but I think Palmer has a better chance of being the next Brady/Manning than Roeth does. Roeth just strikes me as a guy who's almost certain to remain in the top 5 for a long time, while Palmer's got a much better chance of becoming the consensus best QB in the league. The difference between the two is pretty negligible, anyway. I suppose you could argue that Palmer has a better chance of becoming Manning, while Roeth has a better chance of becoming pre-2007 Brady. I think we both agree that both are ahead of Romo, regardless of the year that he's having, right?
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 13 2007, 09:24 PM)
I'd take Roeth over Palmer, but I think Palmer has a better chance of being the next Brady/Manning than Roeth does. Roeth just strikes me as a guy who's almost certain to remain in the top 5 for a long time, while Palmer's got a much better chance of becoming the consensus best QB in the league. The difference between the two is pretty negligible, anyway. I suppose you could argue that Palmer has a better chance of becoming Manning, while Roeth has a better chance of becoming pre-2007 Brady. I think we both agree that both are ahead of Romo, regardless of the year that he's having, right?
As a NFL QB? Oh, yeah. I like both better than Romo....but Romo is definitely gaining on Palmer. I'm not sure Palmer is the same QB since his knee injury, but maybe he's still working up to it.
As an almost life-long Cincinnati resident and both a former lover and loather of the franchise, I still keep fairly close tabs on the team. One thing I know Palmer and Roethlisberger have shared for the past year and a half that Romo has not is poor protection from the O-Line. Palmer has had both of his pro bowl caliber tackles injured off and on, and it's affected his play. Not to be forgotten (and I know I've beaten this drum quite a bit) is the importance of Chris Henry in the Bengals' offense. As a poor man's Randy Moss, he might be the most physically gifted Bengals skill position player, and he really takes the offense to another level when he's in there. I think Palmer closes out the rest of this season with a fury the next three games. Just a hunch.
I liked your comparison of Palmer to Manning and Roethlisberger to Brady. That makes sense to me.
Here's a question I never thought I'd be asking:
Texans
s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?
Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Texans
s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 13 2007, 10:21 PM)
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
I thought we were pretty clear that we were talking about who is directly behind Brady/Manning as a NFL QB...
If you want to debate Romo vs. Big Ben & Palmer for fantasy value, that's a different discussion.
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 13 2007, 10:21 PM)
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
We were talking real-world NFL value, not fantasy value. If you check the rankings, you might notice that F&L does have Romo at #3.
Cutler scores high on the yards/attempt scale, which is one of the main metrics I use to evaluate QBs. Yards/attempt is one of the main reasons I was touting Roethlisberger as an FF QB when NO ONE thought he could become a top 5 guy.
Anyhow, Cutler's definitely one of the most promising FF prospects of all the young QBs in the NFL right now. Not a chance I'd trade him for Leinart or VY at this point. We probably should've seen this coming after he averaged a respectable 7.3 YPA as a rookie, but I think people were blinded by Young's flashy running skills and by Leinart's great supporting cast.
David Garrard and Matt Schaub are two other guys who score high on the YPA scale and can still be had for a cheap price. Schaub seems like a pretty good buy right now. I think he has a solid future as an above average starter in this league.
Anyhow, Cutler's definitely one of the most promising FF prospects of all the young QBs in the NFL right now. Not a chance I'd trade him for Leinart or VY at this point. We probably should've seen this coming after he averaged a respectable 7.3 YPA as a rookie, but I think people were blinded by Young's flashy running skills and by Leinart's great supporting cast.
David Garrard and Matt Schaub are two other guys who score high on the YPA scale and can still be had for a cheap price. Schaub seems like a pretty good buy right now. I think he has a solid future as an above average starter in this league.
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 13 2007, 10:41 PM)
Cutler scores high on the yards/attempt scale, which is one of the main metrics I use to evaluate QBs. Yards/attempt is one of the main reasons I was touting Roethlisberger as an FF QB when NO ONE thought he could become a top 5 guy.
Anyhow, Cutler's definitely one of the most promising FF prospects of all the young QBs in the NFL right now. Not a chance I'd trade him for Leinart or VY at this point. We probably should've seen this coming after he averaged a respectable 7.3 YPA as a rookie, but I think people were blinded by Young's flashy running skills and by Leinart's great supporting cast.
David Garrard and Matt Schaub are two other guys who score high on the YPA scale and can still be had for a cheap price. Schaub seems like a pretty good buy right now. I think he has a solid future as an above average starter in this league.
Anyhow, Cutler's definitely one of the most promising FF prospects of all the young QBs in the NFL right now. Not a chance I'd trade him for Leinart or VY at this point. We probably should've seen this coming after he averaged a respectable 7.3 YPA as a rookie, but I think people were blinded by Young's flashy running skills and by Leinart's great supporting cast.
David Garrard and Matt Schaub are two other guys who score high on the YPA scale and can still be had for a cheap price. Schaub seems like a pretty good buy right now. I think he has a solid future as an above average starter in this league.
I'm a big fan of the yards/attempt stat in judging QBs. Some thoughts on YPA:
- Roethlisberger has a higher YPA than Manning or Brady. He's over 8.0 for his young career.
- A quarterback's weapons make a huge difference in YPA, especially playmaking freaks like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. It's an obvious connection, but beyond those two WRs it's often tough to tell which QBs are benefiting from explosive weapons and which QBs are simply very good. Tom Brady we know is a great QB, but he had a pedestrian 6.8 YPA last season only to turn it around to 8.6 this season with Moss and Stallworth replacing Reche Caldwell and the island of misfit toys.
- Weapons matter, and a strong running game matters maybe just as much. Roethlisberger's first two seasons in the league produced extraordinary YPAs of 8.9 both years behind a strong Steelers-style running game, and a great play action deep game. The first time I noticed this connection between a very good QB, explosive weapons on the edges, a good tight end, and a dominant rushing attack was growing up with the mid-80s Bengals. Boomer Esiason was no Dan Marino, but he was a very good QB. Most years he had good weapons on the edges with Cris Collinsworth, Eddie Brown, and Tim McGee plus an above average tight end in Rodney Holman. Boomer put up a very nice YPA between 7.0 - 8.0 almost every year in Cincinnati, but in 1988 that YPA spiked to an outlandish 9.2 on the way to the Super Bowl.
What made that year so great for Boomer's YPA? James Brooks and Ickey Woods. Brooks, the 80s version of Brian Westbrook, rushed for 931 yards at a per carry clip of over 5.0 while Ickey burst on the scene with 1066 yards at 5.3 yards per carry. With the running game working so well, neither Boomer nor Roethlisberger 15 years later had a need for dinking and dunking the ball down the field. And as the best play-action passer I've ever seen, the strong rushing attack fitted Boomer's strength's to a T that season allowing him to get the ball down the field to Eddie Brown at 24.0 yards a pop. - While David Garrard has been more playmaker than the game manager he is often believed to be, I suspect part of his 7.7 YPA is in taking advantage of the strong running game mentioned above. He's feeding off Fred Taylor's and MJD's success and looking for chunks of yardage down the middle of the field as opposed to resorting to dump offs and short passes to pick up needed first downs in order to sustain drives.
- As a general rule, I think a 7.0 YPA is a sensible cutoff line for an acceptable passing attack in the NFL. Derek Anderson's YPA is down some after spending most of the season around 8.0, but he's still at a very respectable 7.5. Unfortunately, the flip side is his Eli-esque 57% completion percentage and 14 interceptions. All of which brings me to my favorite recent player comparison. I've seen comparisons of the Anderson/Quinn situation to Brees/Rivers and comparisons of Anderson to one-hit-wonders like Scott Mitchell, but do you know who Derek Anderson is? He's Jake Delhomme. Both guys came out of nowhere to light a fire under their teams once they were given a shot. Both guys did it by locking on to their best weapons down the field (Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad vs. Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow). Both guys can put up 25-30 TDs in any given season by allowing their playmakers to make plays, but struggle more than a top-half NFL QB should with accuracy. Both guys are good for 7.5 YPA to go along with some bone-headed mistakes. Both guys can put up points, but most years their dichotomous mixture of strengths and weaknesses will prevent their team from getting past 10 wins and the first round of the playoffs. I think the best asset of both Delhomme and Anderson is a willingness and ability to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers...and only their playmakers. Would you give up a 1st & 3rd round NFL draft pick for Jake Delhomme?
I think you're on the money about Anderson. He's a guy I'd probably be looking to sell. He's playing well for a first year starter who was an afterthought on opening day, but I think people are getting carried away with anointing him a franchise QB. If I'm the Browns I'm not too excited about handing him a big contract in the offseason.
You might be right about Garrard. He's not a guy I'll be tripping over myself to trade for this offseason. I hate when people call a QB a game manager just because he doesn't throw a lot, but I actually think that title applies to Garrard. I don't see him taking a great leap forward this year or next. Nevertheless, his numbers are impressive. Good QB rating. Good completion percentage. He could surprise if Jacksonville turns him loose.
Schaub and Cutler are guys I'd be looking to get as backup QBs if I were drafting a dynasty team today. Neither guy can be relied on as a starter, but they both offer decent upside and would be serviceable options in a pinch.
There's a nice cluster of QB upside in the late rounds with Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, and Aaron Rodgers. I'd be looking to pick those guys up if I could get them on the cheap in a dynasty. Rodgers and Quinn would probably be the best values since their path to playing time is unclear. The flipside of the Anderson hype is that Quinn has become an afterthought. It might be time to capitalize on that, although the risk factor with any untested QB is considerable.
You might be right about Garrard. He's not a guy I'll be tripping over myself to trade for this offseason. I hate when people call a QB a game manager just because he doesn't throw a lot, but I actually think that title applies to Garrard. I don't see him taking a great leap forward this year or next. Nevertheless, his numbers are impressive. Good QB rating. Good completion percentage. He could surprise if Jacksonville turns him loose.
Schaub and Cutler are guys I'd be looking to get as backup QBs if I were drafting a dynasty team today. Neither guy can be relied on as a starter, but they both offer decent upside and would be serviceable options in a pinch.
There's a nice cluster of QB upside in the late rounds with Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, and Aaron Rodgers. I'd be looking to pick those guys up if I could get them on the cheap in a dynasty. Rodgers and Quinn would probably be the best values since their path to playing time is unclear. The flipside of the Anderson hype is that Quinn has become an afterthought. It might be time to capitalize on that, although the risk factor with any untested QB is considerable.
Obviously I am just an English professor and no one is paying me for my football opinion, but I have had the same judgement about Cutler ever since I saw him play so well last year. This year has not changed my opinion. I would rather have him than Romo any day. Roethlisberger is a very effecient QB and could be in the elite three if his team ran a different offense--but for fantasy purposes I don't see the Pittsburgh QB ever having the same value as Peyton Manning or Brady.
I know it's not anywhere near as definitive as ESPN would have you believe, but still... yesterday, I wouldn't have believed you could have asked five of ANYONE, let alone five professional observers of football, and come up with a consensus that Cutler was more likely to be the next Manning/Brady than Palmer, Roeth, or Romo. Anyone other than those three, yeah. It's not like I'd trade Roethlisberger for Cutler at this point, regardless of what they said, I was just very surprised by the result.
Edit: FWIW, I don't see it. Like I said, anyone other than Palmer, Romo, or Roeth. Heck, I could even possibly see him over Romo or Roeth, but Palmer? I guess that's why these guys are making the big bucks.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 13 2007, 09:05 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 08:44 PM)
I think we're all aware that one scout is going to grade a player differently than other scouts, but this speaks very highly to Cutler's value.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
Two pro scouts, one personnel director, a defensive coordinator and a defensive backs coach? Not exactly the authoritative sample that the article makes it appear, but I think it should definitely get a dynasty owner's antennae up on Cutler's value. I'm moving him up again.
I know it's not anywhere near as definitive as ESPN would have you believe, but still... yesterday, I wouldn't have believed you could have asked five of ANYONE, let alone five professional observers of football, and come up with a consensus that Cutler was more likely to be the next Manning/Brady than Palmer, Roeth, or Romo. Anyone other than those three, yeah. It's not like I'd trade Roethlisberger for Cutler at this point, regardless of what they said, I was just very surprised by the result.
Edit: FWIW, I don't see it. Like I said, anyone other than Palmer, Romo, or Roeth. Heck, I could even possibly see him over Romo or Roeth, but Palmer? I guess that's why these guys are making the big bucks.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:14 PM)
Here's a question I never thought I'd be asking:
Texans s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?
Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Texans
s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Well, you probably know that I am a huge Dayne fan but I put a low percentage on this; if Dayne had stayed healthy and played well down the stretch there might be a chance. But he played great last year and they brought in Green, so I don't see Dayne any younger. He is going to be what? 31 next year. I DO see Dayne being kept around as the RB2 to backup some young RB that they draft. In fact, I dropped Dayne this week in my dynasty because now that he is injured I see his value as way down.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:29 PM)
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 13 2007, 10:21 PM)
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
I thought we were pretty clear that we were talking about who is directly behind Brady/Manning as a NFL QB...
If you want to debate Romo vs. Big Ben & Palmer for fantasy value, that's a different discussion.
Im sorry i disrupted your guys conversation. I was just saying fantasy wise this is what i thought.
SRY will not happen again
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:08 AM)
Obviously I am just an English professor
In what area do you specialize?
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 14 2007, 01:00 AM)
Schaub and Cutler are guys I'd be looking to get as backup QBs if I were drafting a dynasty team today. Neither guy can be relied on as a starter, but they both offer decent upside and would be serviceable options in a pinch.
I don't think there's anything wrong with relying on Cutler as a starter right now. He's played in 18 career games. In one of them, he only attempted 4 passes before getting injured. In the other 17, he's only been held out of the end-zone twice, and he's only scored fewer than 14 points twice (same games both times), meaning he's very consistent. His yards per game number is very solid right now (on a 3800 yard season-long pace). His upside has been limited so far, last week notwithstanding, but he makes for a very solid option for those lacking a top-5 signal caller. He's been a top-10 QB so far this season, and is as consistent as they come.
I wouldn't be THRILLED starting him, because I'd much rather have a Romo/Favre/Brady type, but assuming I didn't have one of those guys, I'd have no problems going into a season with Cutler as my guy.
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 14 2007, 01:21 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:29 PM)
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 13 2007, 10:21 PM)
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
I thought we were pretty clear that we were talking about who is directly behind Brady/Manning as a NFL QB...
If you want to debate Romo vs. Big Ben & Palmer for fantasy value, that's a different discussion.
Im sorry i disrupted your guys conversation. I was just saying fantasy wise this is what i thought.
SRY will not happen again
I'm just confused about what you were looking for. Romo is already ranked directly behind Manning/Brady and above Big Ben/Palmer for fantasy purposes, and nobody has really come out and disputed that. It just seemed like you were looking for a debate when we already agree with you.
I'm not trying to pick on you. I just didn't know what you were after with your comments.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 14 2007, 01:22 AM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 14 2007, 01:00 AM)
Schaub and Cutler are guys I'd be looking to get as backup QBs if I were drafting a dynasty team today. Neither guy can be relied on as a starter, but they both offer decent upside and would be serviceable options in a pinch.
I don't think there's anything wrong with relying on Cutler as a starter right now. He's played in 18 career games. In one of them, he only attempted 4 passes before getting injured. In the other 17, he's only been held out of the end-zone twice, and he's only scored fewer than 14 points twice (same games both times), meaning he's very consistent. His yards per game number is very solid right now (on a 3800 yard season-long pace). His upside has been limited so far, last week notwithstanding, but he makes for a very solid option for those lacking a top-5 signal caller. He's been a top-10 QB so far this season, and is as consistent as they come.
I wouldn't be THRILLED starting him, because I'd much rather have a Romo/Favre/Brady type, but assuming I didn't have one of those guys, I'd have no problems going into a season with Cutler as my guy.
I agree with this. My realization that Cutler is startable just occurred a couple of weeks ago, but I'd be comfortable starting him from now on. As is my wont, I'd try to back him up with a Favre, Hasselbeck, McNabb, or Kitna type for next season rather than a JaMarcus Russell or Matt Leinart though.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 14 2007, 01:22 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:08 AM)
Obviously I am just an English professor
In what area do you specialize?
Greek, Roman, and Renaissance.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:33 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 14 2007, 01:22 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:08 AM)
Obviously I am just an English professor
In what area do you specialize?
Greek, Roman, and Renaissance.
That's pretty effin' cool, az_prof.
Homer & Sappho, Virgil & Lucretius, Dante Alighieri & Montaigne?
Does that make "Erasmus" James your favorite player?
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:12 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:14 PM)
Here's a question I never thought I'd be asking:
Texans s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?
Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Texans
s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Well, you probably know that I am a huge Dayne fan but I put a low percentage on this; if Dayne had stayed healthy and played well down the stretch there might be a chance. But he played great last year and they brought in Green, so I don't see Dayne any younger. He is going to be what? 31 next year. I DO see Dayne being kept around as the RB2 to backup some young RB that they draft. In fact, I dropped Dayne this week in my dynasty because now that he is injured I see his value as way down.
I agree with az_prof for the most part ( I am an art professor btw). At the end of the past two years, Kubiak has looked to his younger guys, despite Dayne playing well. Last year it was Taylor, this year the undrafted Walker. It wouldn't surprise me to see Houston shopping for a running back again and bringing Dayne back as a RB2. However, Dayne has shown that he can be productive, so if you had a deep roster, I would scoop him up. Over the past two years, he has been a legit spot starter that can help teams win games.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 14 2007, 01:25 AM)
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 14 2007, 01:21 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:29 PM)
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 13 2007, 10:21 PM)
Romo is third only 2 better fantasy wise. Palmer could regain his forum then he may never. Cincy is a train wreck.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
Big Ben is no where close to Romo fantasy wise for the future.
I thought we were pretty clear that we were talking about who is directly behind Brady/Manning as a NFL QB...
If you want to debate Romo vs. Big Ben & Palmer for fantasy value, that's a different discussion.
Im sorry i disrupted your guys conversation. I was just saying fantasy wise this is what i thought.
SRY will not happen again
I'm just confused about what you were looking for. Romo is already ranked directly behind Manning/Brady and above Big Ben/Palmer for fantasy purposes, and nobody has really come out and disputed that. It just seemed like you were looking for a debate when we already agree with you.
I'm not trying to pick on you. I just didn't know what you were after with your comments.
First of all this is a great thread. Thank You
Question: Should palmer really be in the first tier i know there are a lotof excuses we could use for him, but the fact of the matter is Brady/Romo have joined Manning these three guys have distanced themselves from the pack in fantasy in my eyes. Curious to know why you think palmer belongs there and not with
2nd tier group where I thing Brees might just be a better fantasy starter then palmer.
thx
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 10:14 PM)
Here's a question I never thought I'd be asking:
Texans s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?
Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Texans
s (rabidfireweasel?) -- Is there a decent chance that Ron Dayne goes into the 2008 season as the starting RB? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be?Ahman Green is likely to be cut, correct?
Not a Texans homer, but I don't think Green/Dayne are the answer. I think the Texans draft a RB (in the 2nd or 3rd), and that rookie RB should be at least 3rd tier by the end of training camp. I think that this is a situation that bares extremely close watching.
So.... I have Taylor on my bench for next year. It seems based on the past few Texans posts that the injury may have killed his chances? Dump time for Taylor?
QUOTE (brobe4 @ Dec 14 2007, 08:58 AM)
First of all this is a great thread. Thank You Question: Should palmer really be in the first tier i know there are a lotof excuses we could use for him, but the fact of the matter is Brady/Romo have joined Manning these three guys have distanced themselves from the pack in fantasy in my eyes. Curious to know why you think palmer belongs there and not with
2nd tier group where I thing Brees might just be a better fantasy starter then palmer.
thx
Question: Should palmer really be in the first tier i know there are a lotof excuses we could use for him, but the fact of the matter is Brady/Romo have joined Manning these three guys have distanced themselves from the pack in fantasy in my eyes. Curious to know why you think palmer belongs there and not with2nd tier group where I thing Brees might just be a better fantasy starter then palmer.
thx
I think you're too caught up in Week 15 of 2007 and not looking at the big picture. Even the best QBs have disappointing seasons. The level of disappointment is what separates Peyton Manning from everybody else. Talent and situation ensure that Carson Palmer will stay an elite dynasty QB.
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Dec 14 2007, 05:41 AM)
I agree with az_prof for the most part ( I am an art professor btw). At the end of the past two years, Kubiak has looked to his younger guys, despite Dayne playing well. Last year it was Taylor, this year the undrafted Walker. It wouldn't surprise me to see Houston shopping for a running back again and bringing Dayne back as a RB2. However, Dayne has shown that he can be productive, so if you had a deep roster, I would scoop him up. Over the past two years, he has been a legit spot starter that can help teams win games.
Damn, this place is lousy with eggheads! Just kidding. Professors have always been one of the occupations I respect most...even if they do make me jump through hoops while "prostrate to the higher mind" [Indigo Girls]. Hell, I just got done with a 10-page paper subtitled "Nationalism and Humanity in The English Patient and Cry, the Beloved Country." If that ain't championship hoop-jumpin'...
Anyway, back to football. I agree with your take on the Texans' RB situation. They have to bring in another runner if they want to keep improving in the W/L column. Dayne will be the back-up to whoever they bring in via draft or free agency, and Walker will probably be around as the 3rd stringer or 3rd down back. At age 30, I just don't see much dynasty value to Dayne beyond roster clogging.
QUOTE (Anthony Borbely @ Dec 12 2007, 08:12 PM)
Regarding the Vernon Davis talk, I will only say one thing: I seriously have never seen a worse passing offense than the one the 49ers have had this year. Never. In over 35 years of watching football. They are horrendous. I'm sure there have been worse, but I sure haven't seen anything so ineffective and lackluster. They can't even run a simple play without something going wrong. Alex Smith was terrible, partly due to injury, Dilfer is awful, Hill is no better. Davis never had a chance to improve.
I would give Vernon Davis a pass for this season, without hesitation, for that reason alone. I actually think his numbers border on impressive considering the horrendous passing game. I think many have already given up on him. For those who have, i'd be looking to buy low.
I would give Vernon Davis a pass for this season, without hesitation, for that reason alone. I actually think his numbers border on impressive considering the horrendous passing game. I think many have already given up on him. For those who have, i'd be looking to buy low.
Davis is known for having pretty mediocre hands, but I agree with everything you said.
The 49ers can't pass block, and it's hard to come up with a worse pass blocking team in the NFL. The play calling has been abysmal. And the most vexing part is the 49ers' inability to integrate Davis into the passing game. If SF had a fantastic WR corps, then it'd be hard to question Davis' role in the game plan. However, with Battle, Lelie, and Jackson, I am just astounded that SF isn't willing to utilize Davis more.
One would assume that the 49er passing game will be better in 2008. And I think Davis will have better season and finish in the 5-8 range in stats for TEs.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 11:43 PM)
All of which brings me to my favorite recent player comparison. I've seen comparisons of the Anderson/Quinn situation to Brees/Rivers and comparisons of Anderson to one-hit-wonders like Scott Mitchell, but do you know who Derek Anderson is? He's Jake Delhomme. Both guys came out of nowhere to light a fire under their teams once they were given a shot. Both guys did it by locking on to their best weapons down the field (Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad vs. Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow). Both guys can put up 25-30 TDs in any given season by allowing their playmakers to make plays, but struggle more than a top-half NFL QB should with accuracy. Both guys are good for 7.5 YPA to go along with some bone-headed mistakes. Both guys can put up points, but most years their dichotomous mixture of strengths and weaknesses will prevent their team from getting past 10 wins and the first round of the playoffs. I think the best asset of both Delhomme and Anderson is a willingness and ability to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers...and only their playmakers. Would you give up a 1st & 3rd round NFL draft pick for Jake Delhomme?
[/list]
[/list]
I love that comparison. So, is Derek overated or is Jake underrated?
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 14 2007, 11:41 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 13 2007, 11:43 PM)
All of which brings me to my favorite recent player comparison. I've seen comparisons of the Anderson/Quinn situation to Brees/Rivers and comparisons of Anderson to one-hit-wonders like Scott Mitchell, but do you know who Derek Anderson is? He's Jake Delhomme. Both guys came out of nowhere to light a fire under their teams once they were given a shot. Both guys did it by locking on to their best weapons down the field (Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad vs. Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow). Both guys can put up 25-30 TDs in any given season by allowing their playmakers to make plays, but struggle more than a top-half NFL QB should with accuracy. Both guys are good for 7.5 YPA to go along with some bone-headed mistakes. Both guys can put up points, but most years their dichotomous mixture of strengths and weaknesses will prevent their team from getting past 10 wins and the first round of the playoffs. I think the best asset of both Delhomme and Anderson is a willingness and ability to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers...and only their playmakers. Would you give up a 1st & 3rd round NFL draft pick for Jake Delhomme?
[/list]
[/list]
I love that comparison. So, is Derek overated or is Jake underrated?
My sense is that Anderson is slightly overrated due to a hot start and the fact that we don't have a full body of work like we do with Delhomme. If the comparison holds up, Derek Anderson is going to settle into a career of being just shy of what you want in a franchise quarterback. The counting stats are going to look very nice most years, but I think the below average accuracy and less than optimal decision making will keep him too inconsistent to be a yearly stud.
F&L;
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
F&L, I'm curious about why Calvin Johnson has been bumped ahead of Roy Williams.
Is it because of Roy's injury and he can no longer help owners this year? Or is it because you truly feel Calvin will be a better option than Roy next year? Lastly, does it have anything to do with the character issue? This is the one area where I feel the advantage clearly goes to Calvin.
I know it's marginal, as you have them at essentially the same level, but I think it's significant.
Is it because of Roy's injury and he can no longer help owners this year? Or is it because you truly feel Calvin will be a better option than Roy next year? Lastly, does it have anything to do with the character issue? This is the one area where I feel the advantage clearly goes to Calvin.
I know it's marginal, as you have them at essentially the same level, but I think it's significant.
Just wanted to add my thx to F&L for this thread. Great dynasty info and debates. Great stuff.
Thanks FL; yes, those are my boys. My specialty is Homer's Iliad and Odyssey. Although as much as I love what I do I would probably give it all up to be an NFL coach or scout. Football is so obsessive!
In what area do you specialize?
Greek, Roman, and Renaissance.
That's pretty effin' cool, az_prof.
Homer & Sappho, Virgil & Lucretius, Dante Alighieri & Montaigne?
Does that make "Erasmus" James your favorite player?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 14 2007, 01:42 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:33 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 14 2007, 01:22 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 14 2007, 01:08 AM)
Obviously I am just an English professor
In what area do you specialize?
Greek, Roman, and Renaissance.
That's pretty effin' cool, az_prof.
Homer & Sappho, Virgil & Lucretius, Dante Alighieri & Montaigne?
Does that make "Erasmus" James your favorite player?
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
QUOTE (Timberlend @ Dec 15 2007, 02:15 AM)
F&L;
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 01:39 PM)
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
Ronnie Brown and KJ had completely different injuries. It usually takes 12-18 months to fully recover from a torn ACL.
Also, it's Chatman, not Chapman.
QUOTE (Anjin-san @ Dec 15 2007, 09:17 AM)
F&L, I'm curious about why Calvin Johnson has been bumped ahead of Roy Williams.
Is it because of Roy's injury and he can no longer help owners this year? Or is it because you truly feel Calvin will be a better option than Roy next year? Lastly, does it have anything to do with the character issue? This is the one area where I feel the advantage clearly goes to Calvin.
I know it's marginal, as you have them at essentially the same level, but I think it's significant.
Is it because of Roy's injury and he can no longer help owners this year? Or is it because you truly feel Calvin will be a better option than Roy next year? Lastly, does it have anything to do with the character issue? This is the one area where I feel the advantage clearly goes to Calvin.
I know it's marginal, as you have them at essentially the same level, but I think it's significant.
I've soured on Roy Williams just a little bit over the past couple weeks, and some of that has to do with the injury. He had a very impressive year last year, and I expected him to build on that this year. For whatever reason, he did not. I still like him, but I think he's gone from hanging around the Andre Johnson neighborhood to hanging with Housh a tier lower.
I bumped Calvin mainly because of his ceiling. After hearing from Anthony Borbely, my faith in his ridiculous ability has been rejuvenated. He has a chance to be a dominant player, and I'm always willing to stick my neck out for dominant talents. We'll see what he does with this 3-week window to showcase that talent the rest of the way.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 15 2007, 01:56 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 01:39 PM)
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
Ronnie Brown and KJ had completely different injuries. It usually takes 12-18 months to fully recover from a torn ACL.
Also, it's Chatman, not Chapman.
The recovery time for ACL keeps getting shorter and shorter. Everyone would agree that an ACL is MUCH LESS serious than LisFranc. Are you saying that the Finns will bring in a high priced FA or spend a valuable top pick on a RB when they have Ronnie Brown?
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 01:39 PM)
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
QUOTE (Timberlend @ Dec 15 2007, 02:15 AM)
F&L;
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
Good to hear from you, Timberlend. Thanks.
My take on these three situations is practically the direct opposite of az_prof's:
1] Ronnie Brown - His injury presents somewhat of a dilemma for his owners going into 2008. If there's ever been a RB who has bounced back to normal production the year immediately following a torn ACL, I'm not aware of him. He's likely going to be a lot less explosive and a lot more inconsistent for much of next season, but most owners don't have the luxury of counting on him as a spot-starter. That's the reason I bumped him down so much following the injury even though I may have been his biggest supporter previously. An ACL injury for RBs means basically waiting 1.5 - 2.0 years before you can go back to counting on 95% of his former production.
2] Vince Young - I still like Vince Young. I covered quite a few Titans games this season, and he hasn't looked nearly as bad as the numbers show. Don't get me wrong, he still has a lot of work to do to improve his passing skills, but he remains an unique talent at the QB position. Norm Chow's role in his development is a topic better left with somebody who knows the situation better than I do. As is the salary cap question. As far as which QB he most resembles, when I watch him play, he doesn't remind me of anybody. I don't think he's like Vick at all. If I had to say, maybe McNabb...but VY is a better runner and not as good of a passer. My inclination about VY is that he is the kind of fantasy QB where the light could suddenly flick on once he gets a little bit of help in the weapons department. I certainly wouldn't sell while his value is at its nadir, but he is the kind of dynasty QB where you have to back him up with a startable veteran if he's your franchise QB.
3] Alge Crumpler - First of all, tight ends generally age like running backs, so his age is absolutely a factor. At almost 31 years old going into next season, Crumpler is clearly past the peak of his career. You could point to Tony Gonzalez as your paradigm of hope if you stretched hard enough, but Crumpler is no Tony Gonzalez. Not even close. Now is Petrino's exit good for Crumpler? I don't see how it could not be. However, I think Petrino's impact on Crumpler's downfall this season is much less of a factor than (1) losing Vick, who may not have been a good passer but was always good for Crumpler's numbers, (2) injuries (age factor) that kept him out of a couple of games and severely hampered him in others (3) the Falcons offense not being near the redzone enough to take advantage of Crumpler's redzone skills. If you can find somebody who doesn't know about the age factor for tight ends and believes Petrino's exit means a return to the Crumpler of old, then he's a sell. If you can't find somebody who believes all of that, then hold onto him and hope for one more good season.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 02:01 PM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 15 2007, 01:56 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 01:39 PM)
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
Ronnie Brown and KJ had completely different injuries. It usually takes 12-18 months to fully recover from a torn ACL.
Also, it's Chatman, not Chapman.
The recovery time for ACL keeps getting shorter and shorter. Everyone would agree that an ACL is MUCH LESS serious than LisFranc. Are you saying that the Finns will bring in a high priced FA or spend a valuable top pick on a RB when they have Ronnie Brown?
They still have Ricky Williams under contract for one more season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him picking up some of Ronnie's slack to start the season.
I didn't realize Crumpler was so old--which changes my mind and I think you are probably right about him.
As for RB and Ricky Williams, Williams will be 31 next May. In the past four years he has only played one in the NFL (I really can't count his partial game this year). I just don't think his physical abilities are enough to compensate for how long he has been out of the NFl smoking pot and doing yoga and at his age I see him as probably being behind Chatman, if he makes the roster next year at all.
Good to hear from you, Timberlend. Thanks.
My take on these three situations is practically the direct opposite of az_prof's:
1] Ronnie Brown - His injury presents somewhat of a dilemma for his owners going into 2008. If there's ever been a RB who has bounced back to normal production the year immediately following a torn ACL, I'm not aware of him. He's likely going to be a lot less explosive and a lot more inconsistent for much of next season, but most owners don't have the luxury of counting on him as a spot-starter. That's the reason I bumped him down so much following the injury even though I may have been his biggest supporter previously. An ACL injury for RBs means basically waiting 1.5 - 2.0 years before you can go back to counting on 95% of his former production.
2] Vince Young - I still like Vince Young. I covered quite a few Titans games this season, and he hasn't looked nearly as bad as the numbers show. Don't get me wrong, he still has a lot of work to do to improve his passing skills, but he remains an unique talent at the QB position. Norm Chow's role in his development is a topic better left with somebody who knows the situation better than I do. As is the salary cap question. As far as which QB he most resembles, when I watch him play, he doesn't remind me of anybody. I don't think he's like Vick at all. If I had to say, maybe McNabb...but VY is a better runner and not as good of a passer. My inclination about VY is that he is the kind of fantasy QB where the light could suddenly flick on once he gets a little bit of help in the weapons department. I certainly wouldn't sell while his value is at its nadir, but he is the kind of dynasty QB where you have to back him up with a startable veteran if he's your franchise QB.
3] Alge Crumpler - First of all, tight ends generally age like running backs, so his age is absolutely a factor. At almost 31 years old going into next season, Crumpler is clearly past the peak of his career. You could point to Tony Gonzalez as your paradigm of hope if you stretched hard enough, but Crumpler is no Tony Gonzalez. Not even close. Now is Petrino's exit good for Crumpler? I don't see how it could not be. However, I think Petrino's impact on Crumpler's downfall this season is much less of a factor than (1) losing Vick, who may not have been a good passer but was always good for Crumpler's numbers, (2) injuries (age factor) that kept him out of a couple of games and severely hampered him in others (3) the Falcons offense not being near the redzone enough to take advantage of Crumpler's redzone skills. If you can find somebody who doesn't know about the age factor for tight ends and believes Petrino's exit means a return to the Crumpler of old, then he's a sell. If you can't find somebody who believes all of that, then hold onto him and hope for one more good season.
As for RB and Ricky Williams, Williams will be 31 next May. In the past four years he has only played one in the NFL (I really can't count his partial game this year). I just don't think his physical abilities are enough to compensate for how long he has been out of the NFl smoking pot and doing yoga and at his age I see him as probably being behind Chatman, if he makes the roster next year at all.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 15 2007, 02:26 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 15 2007, 01:39 PM)
My take on these questions:
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
1) Ronnie Brown will be fine. His injury is much less severe than KJ's was and I expect him to be ready to go by the middle of pre-season. They will keep Chapman around to back him again and I could see them drafting someone in the third or fourth round because Booker looks like a situational guy, but I don't see them bringing in someone to replace Brown.
2) Vince Young: the guy has regressed in his second year of starting. That's never good. He doesn't have many good weapons but we don't use that as an excuse for guys like Beck or TJax so why should Young get a free ride? I don't think he has the ability to be a consistent top 5 QB. I would look to deal him.
3) Crumpler: Well, clearly Petrino was good for the WRs and not so good for Crumpler. Whether things will improve for him or not will depend upon who they bring in next year but it is hard to see how things could get much worse. I would hold on Crumpler because you won't get good value and I do think he is capable of being a top 10 TE again.
QUOTE (Timberlend @ Dec 15 2007, 02:15 AM)
F&L;
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
It’s been said a quite a few times here, this thread is a gawd sent for fantasy owners.
Been tuning in for a couple months now. Was so riveted by the thoughts of everyone I had to go back and read it from page one.
Seen one of the posters talk about posts clogging up the thread. I for one, thoroughly enjoy the different opinions. And heck, if it’s something which doesn’t appeal to me, I speed by with my mouse.
Special thank you needs to out to F&L for his dedication in this column. His rankings and thoughts played a huge role in a successful season for myself and I’m sure many others.
Wanted to to throw a couple nuggets into the discussion on;
1. Vince Young – Two years nearly in the books. Is he where you thought he would be? How would you evaluate Norm Chow and the job he has done with VY. If Chow does indeed leave for UCLA is that a blow? What are VY’s concerns for the future? Do the Titans have the cap room to make a play for a quality WR for him, someone like Bernard Berrian in the free agent market? Who do you see VY resembling most in the recent history of NFL quarterbacks? Is he more of a Vick or would you compare him to McNabb?
2. Ronnie Brown – How would you approach his situation as an owner heading into next season? Do you think it will be a KJ deal where we wait 4-5 weeks for him to step into the lineup? Does Ricky Williams have a shot at the #2 back? Or does Miami bring back Chatman? Speaking of Chatman, do you anticipate there being much interest in his services on the open market?
3. Alge Crumpler – This season has been a complete 180 from last. After setting career highs in touchdowns last season he has been an utter disappointment. Do you see as his age being a factor in this? 29 doesn’t seem old for a TE to me. Does Petrinos exit mean good things for Alge? As a Crumpler owner I want to believe this season is an aberration to what has been otherwise a stellar career. Set me str8….
Don’t post a great deal to this thread, but am always reading along. Feels great to throw in a post. Hehe. Happy holidays everyone!
Good to hear from you, Timberlend. Thanks.
My take on these three situations is practically the direct opposite of az_prof's:
1] Ronnie Brown - His injury presents somewhat of a dilemma for his owners going into 2008. If there's ever been a RB who has bounced back to normal production the year immediately following a torn ACL, I'm not aware of him. He's likely going to be a lot less explosive and a lot more inconsistent for much of next season, but most owners don't have the luxury of counting on him as a spot-starter. That's the reason I bumped him down so much following the injury even though I may have been his biggest supporter previously. An ACL injury for RBs means basically waiting 1.5 - 2.0 years before you can go back to counting on 95% of his former production.
2] Vince Young - I still like Vince Young. I covered quite a few Titans games this season, and he hasn't looked nearly as bad as the numbers show. Don't get me wrong, he still has a lot of work to do to improve his passing skills, but he remains an unique talent at the QB position. Norm Chow's role in his development is a topic better left with somebody who knows the situation better than I do. As is the salary cap question. As far as which QB he most resembles, when I watch him play, he doesn't remind me of anybody. I don't think he's like Vick at all. If I had to say, maybe McNabb...but VY is a better runner and not as good of a passer. My inclination about VY is that he is the kind of fantasy QB where the light could suddenly flick on once he gets a little bit of help in the weapons department. I certainly wouldn't sell while his value is at its nadir, but he is the kind of dynasty QB where you have to back him up with a startable veteran if he's your franchise QB.
3] Alge Crumpler - First of all, tight ends generally age like running backs, so his age is absolutely a factor. At almost 31 years old going into next season, Crumpler is clearly past the peak of his career. You could point to Tony Gonzalez as your paradigm of hope if you stretched hard enough, but Crumpler is no Tony Gonzalez. Not even close. Now is Petrino's exit good for Crumpler? I don't see how it could not be. However, I think Petrino's impact on Crumpler's downfall this season is much less of a factor than (1) losing Vick, who may not have been a good passer but was always good for Crumpler's numbers, (2) injuries (age factor) that kept him out of a couple of games and severely hampered him in others (3) the Falcons offense not being near the redzone enough to take advantage of Crumpler's redzone skills. If you can find somebody who doesn't know about the age factor for tight ends and believes Petrino's exit means a return to the Crumpler of old, then he's a sell. If you can't find somebody who believes all of that, then hold onto him and hope for one more good season.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 15 2007, 01:56 PM)
He has a chance to be a dominant player, and I'm always willing to stick my neck out for dominant talents.
Words to live by right there.
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