Original FBG Dynasty Rankings Thread | Page 6

King of the Jungle

Mar 16 2007, 05:50 PM

One word F&L

AWESOME.

Definitely up for post of the year IMO.

RBM

Mar 17 2007, 12:34 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 02:31 AM)

[45] LenDale White TEN 22.7 - I know there's a chance TEN will add another RB, but as of early March I wouldn't trade him for anybody below

Interesting. High ranking

Liquid Tension

Mar 17 2007, 12:17 PM

Are these PPR rankings?

-OZ-

Mar 17 2007, 12:31 PM

QUOTE (RBM @ Mar 16 2007, 11:34 PM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 02:31 AM)

[45] LenDale White TEN 22.7 - I know there's a chance TEN will add another RB, but as of early March I wouldn't trade him for anybody below

Interesting. High ranking

I agree, but he's probably in the right tier, he should just be at the bottom of it.
I don't think I'd trade Turner for him (even if I didn't have LT)

TIER THREE
[48] Cedric Benson CHI 24.7 - The Cedric Benson era has finally arrived
[45] LenDale White TEN 22.7 - I know there's a chance TEN will add another RB, but as of early March I wouldn't trade him for anybody below
[43] Travis Henry DEN 28.8 - I don't think he's nearly as talented as many in the "Travis Henry neck-and-neck with LT2" thread believe, and there's always RBBC concern with the whims of Shanny; however, it is a good offense and Henry's contract bodes well for a heavier load the next couple of seasons.
[41] DeAngelo Williams CAR 24.4 - I desperately want to rank him ahead of Travis Henry, but with Foster still hanging around & the possibility of Williams not getting steady goal-line carries, too much of his value lies in the murky waters of the future
[40] Cadillac Williams TB 25.4 - My own golden rule is to let everyone else rely on last year's stats while I judge the talent & situation; accordingly, I'd be willing to give Caddy somewhat of a mulligan on his '06 season if his situation wasn't such a mess...still splitting 3rd down & goal-line work with scrappy veterans and still stuck in a lifeless offense.
[38] Marion Barber III DAL 24.3 - Could be in line for increased role; just don't expect '06 TD production again in '07
[36] Thomas Jones NYJ 29.0 - Won't be much of a factor in the passing game with Washington around, but at least he won't have to constantly look over his shoulder at Benson
[34] Deuce McAllister NO 28.7 - Ran well and should still be in position to score often, but last year may have been best case scenario
[33] Chester Taylor MIN 28.0 - Career year? Or will he continue to be startable for a few years?
[30] Michael Turner SD 25.5 - Looks like he'll sit for another year, then take over a starting role for the highest bidder

citsalp

Mar 20 2007, 12:12 AM

THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA

Mar 20 2007, 09:23 AM

Thanks for the rankings....I been wanting to see some sort of point scale rankings for some time now....

I know its not exact, but it sure is a good bases for drafting and even trading to get good value.

thx man

bigreese82

Mar 27 2007, 10:40 AM

zadok

Mar 27 2007, 10:57 AM

Fear & Loathing

Mar 27 2007, 01:25 PM

I made some tweaks to the main rankings at the top of page one, but I'm still lacking kicker and defense rankings.

It's been a rough week or two, so updates may be more intermittent than usual. As punishment for putting my 33-year-old body through the shenanigans of 8AM to 2AM St. Paddy's Day debauchery, dissipation, drunkenness and vice, pneumonia set in last week. On top of that, I've had to start cramming for baseball auctions this week. Woe is me.

I need a V-8.

Cerwin

Mar 27 2007, 10:58 PM

Mister CIA

Mar 27 2007, 11:22 PM

Wow! I just checked into this thread for the first time in several weeks.

Excellent material. Really, excellent.

Thanks.

Driver

Mar 28 2007, 09:09 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 27 2007, 01:25 PM)

I made some tweaks to the main rankings at the top of page one, but I'm still lacking kicker and defense rankings.

It's been a rough week or two, so updates may be more intermittent than usual. As punishment for putting my 33-year-old body through the shenanigans of 8AM to 2AM St. Paddy's Day debauchery, dissipation, drunkenness and vice, pneumonia set in last week. On top of that, I've had to start cramming for baseball auctions this week. Woe is me.

I need a V-8.

Whoa, take care of yourself, F&L. We need you here. How about we take up a collection and send F&L a couple cases of V-8? (Or maybe something stronger to mix it with? V-8 Bloody Marys?)

Hope you're feeling better!

HobbesAB

Mar 28 2007, 10:19 AM

Excellent work. Thanks for sharing. Its much appreciated

Fear & Loathing

Mar 30 2007, 03:59 PM

Thanks again for the positive reinforcement guys.

Post #1 won't allow me to add any more data, so I'm going to put the Kicker Rankings right here. Previously, I've always considered playoff permutations and overall team strength when ranking kickers because that's the way my dynasty leagues operate. I've made a conscious effort to leave those considerations out this time because I've come to the realization that nobody else on these boards uses a playoff dynasty league format.

But while I'm on the subject of dynasty playoff leagues, please allow a slight tangent. I realize I'm in the minority with playoff leagues, but as knowledgable as most of the guys on this board are, you should really give playoff dynasty leagues some consideration. Not only does the format incorporate so much more strategy, it also ratchets up the competition level several notches while simultaneously removing a good portion of the luck factor inherent in week 14-16 playoffs (when you win a championship, you know you've really earned it). Even better, it dovetails perfectly with the dynasty concept AND allows you to stay involved during the best games of the NFL season, namely the playoffs.

**If we can pique enough interest in the format to start a FBG dynasty playoff league, maybe we can get something started...PM me if you're so inclined.

:soapbox over: On to the kicker rankings.

KICKERS

TIER ONE
[25] Adam Vinatieri IND - As good as any kicker in the league, Colts always a great offense, dome stadium
[22] Nate Kaeding SD - Remembered by many for 2 key playoff misses but owns the highest career % on this list and operates in a great young offense
[21] Jeff Wilkins STL - Very reliable, explosive offense, dome stadium
[20] Shayne Graham CIN - Between 83-88% each of the past 4 seasons in a very good offense

TIER TWO
[15] Mike Nugent NYJ - Took him a year of adjustment, but it's on now
[13] David Akers PHI - Accuracy has slipped with nagging injuries, but I think he'll bounce back in '07
[13] Matt Stover BAL - There's not a more reliable FG kicker in the league
[12] Robbie Gould CHI - Likely over his head last season, but he's better than average
[11] Stephen Gostkowski NE - Showed a lot of improvement from beginning of season to the playoffs
[11] Josh Brown SEA - Penchant for game winners, but just a notch below on accuracy & consistency
[11] Neil Rackers ARI - Strong leg, but almost all of his misses were 50+ yards in '06
[11] Jason Elam DEN - Still reliable, though not quite as strong
[10] Olindo Mare NO - I would definitely gamble on his accuracy returning with an explosive offense in a dome...just make sure you back yourself up with someone reliable if Mare is your 1st kicker
[9] Josh Scobee JAX - Hit on an impressive 14 of 18 from 40-49 last season
[8] John Kasay CAR - Reliable kicker, but CAR's offense has taken a step back

TIER THREE
[5] Jeff Reed PIT - Heinz is where kickers go to die, but Reed has been pretty consistent throughout his career
[4] Jason Hanson DET - Can only go as far as the offense allows; it's in Martz & Kitna's hands now
[4] Rian Lindell BUF - Poster boy for the state of NFL kicking: it takes a couple of years of adjustment before reliability sets in; quietly an extremely reliable kicker the past 3 seasons
[3] Rob Bironas TEN - Sitting in the high 70s on accuracy; inconsistent from 40-49 last year
[3] Jay Feely MIA - Between 78-85% the past 3 seasons, but I'm leery of MIA's offensive production

TIER FOUR
[2] Martin Gramatica DAL - Most potential for high-scoring offense in this group, but also far & away the most likely to implode
[2] Joe Nedney SF - Count on average production
[2] Lawrence Tynes KC - Offense isn't what it was, Tynes very inconsistent
[2] Ryan Longwell MIN - Not quite as accurate as he used to be; dome stadium but rotten offense
[2] Sebastian Janikowski OAK - The worst kicker in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, but I get the feeling he can turn it on at anytime
[2] Dave Rayner GB - I thought he had a very good year last year, but the numbers say otherwise at 74%
[2] Phil Dawson CLE - Accurate kicker in a poor offense coming off a down year

TIER FIVE
[1] Matt Bryant TB - Not the strongest leg, but he's been accurate lately; poor offense
[1] Shaun Suisham WAS - Acquitted himself fine with Redskins, but wasn't tested much beyond 40
[1] Kris Brown HOU - Inaccurate and in a poor offense
[1] Josh Huston NYG - Adjustment period
[0] John Carney [UFA] - Where to now?
[0] Morten Andersen [UFA] - Still $ inside 40, but currently in limbo
[0] Mike Vanderjagt - Who wants a drunk idiot kicker with a giant chip on his shoulder, dwindling accuracy & leg strength and a case of the yips to boot?
[0] John Hall - Never the most accurate of kickers, and the leg isn't what it used to be
[0] Billy Cundiff - Just not accurate enough

george

Apr 3 2007, 12:33 AM

Buckna

Apr 6 2007, 10:56 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 02:31 AM)

[61] Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 22.4 - The most illogical trend I've seen on these boards lately is the concern over MoJo's future production now that Fred Taylor has been re-signed & Greg Jones may be healthy. This is the same Fred Taylor who shared the backfield with MoJo last season while he scored 16 TDs & finished in the top 8 in RB scoring. And is Greg Jones anybody's idea of a good runner? What we have here is fear of the unknown...not enough guys got to see MoJo play last year. They can't believe what they didn't see.

[38] Marion Barber III DAL 24.3 - Could be in line for increased role; just don't expect '06 TD production again in '07

I see both these players as extremely similar for dynasty purposes right now with their situations and performance last year. Your rankings make me think you have a combo of over-rating Mo-Jo and under-rating Barber going on. If I shouldn't expect Barber to repeat his '06 TD production, why shouldn't I expect the same to happen to Mo-Jo?


Another minor quibble, I would put McNabb at the top of tier 2. The only thing holding him back is health, his PPG average was #1 among QB's last year, he's a monster when on the field. Even if I was projecting him to go down somewhere between week 10-13 every year, it'd be worth it to draft him a couple of rounds in an initial draft after Peyton or Palmer for all those points in the first 2/3rds of the season he gives you. That's a huge benefit to getting you in the playoffs.

Driver

Apr 6 2007, 02:23 PM

Just a quick note of gratitude to F&L -- hope you're feeling better from the pneumonia. After reading and reflecting on the long debate over "talent vs. situation," a couple thoughts came to me. First, I thought there were numerous good points made about valuation of players for dynasty purposes by many persons (in addition to the 2 primary debaters).

Second, I have an even deeper appreciation for all of the time and effort that F&L has put into this thread (which I think is incredible and awesome, definitely would be on the short list for best ever IMO). Not to mention his willingness to share his rankings, his thought process, his insights, and his gut feelings (not to mention the tiers, numerical scores, clearly describing his assumptions, etc., etc.). And last but not least by any means, for taking the time to respond to many, many comments/criticisms in a thoughtful manner.

I think the output of this thread is extremely valuable and a real service to many of us here. Thanks once again to F&L for a job well-done.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 6 2007, 03:29 PM

QUOTE (Buckna @ Apr 6 2007, 10:56 AM)

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 02:31 AM)

[61] Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 22.4 - The most illogical trend I've seen on these boards lately is the concern over MoJo's future production now that Fred Taylor has been re-signed & Greg Jones may be healthy. This is the same Fred Taylor who shared the backfield with MoJo last season while he scored 16 TDs & finished in the top 8 in RB scoring. And is Greg Jones anybody's idea of a good runner? What we have here is fear of the unknown...not enough guys got to see MoJo play last year. They can't believe what they didn't see.

[38] Marion Barber III DAL 24.3 - Could be in line for increased role; just don't expect '06 TD production again in '07

I see both these players as extremely similar for dynasty purposes right now with their situations and performance last year. Your rankings make me think you have a combo of over-rating Mo-Jo and under-rating Barber going on. If I shouldn't expect Barber to repeat his '06 TD production, why shouldn't I expect the same to happen to Mo-Jo?

Other than the fact that they both scored 16 TDs last season and they both share carries in the backfield for now, I don't think their performances or situations are all that analogous. Here is where I separate the two of them:

1. TALENT: I've watched them both play. Mo-Jo is the better, more explosive runner. And I don't think it's close. On talent alone, Maurice Jones-Drew is a significantly better dynasty investment than Marion Barber III. Very important distinction.

2. SITUATION: I think the Dallas situation is still up in the air, whereas I believe Mo-Jo is no doubt the future in JAX's backfield. I've seen a lot of people on this board dismiss what Julius Jones brings to the table (only a couple of years after those same people anointed him an absolute stud coming off his rookie season), but the coaching staff has determined that he deserved more carries than Barber two years in a row. There are definitely things Barber does better than Jones, but there are also things Jones does better than Barber. Fred Taylor, on the other hand, is not only nearing the end of the line, but he's also a very poor bet to stay healthy or match last year's numbers.

Furthermore, Mo-Jo is the type of back where it doesn't hurt his value much to be sharing carries. You don't want to waste him on the carries normally reserved for keeping the defense honest or merely mixing in a run to balance the offense -- that's Fred Taylor's role. He's not going to catch as many passes as Reggie Bush, and he's certainly going to rush the ball more than Bush will, but his role in the offense is going to be very similar to Bush's...meaning it's not going to affect his value or usage as much to have another RB to share carries.

3. TOUCHDOWNS: Both players scored 16 TDs last year. Mo-Jo did it by showing explosiveness, homerun hitting ability, great leg drive & moves inside the 10 yard line and impressive receiving ability. He's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Barber, while also impressing on his way to 16 TDs, earned a much greater share of his TDs based on the Cowboys' employment of him inside the red zone. He's much more dependent on his team's red zone performance than Mo-Jo is, and, as such, is much less likely to consistently repeat his TD numbers.

4. STATS: Career yards-per-carry: Mo-Jo -- 5.7, Barber -- 4.4. Additionally, in his rookie season Mo-Jo caught 46 passes for a 9.5 average and 2 TDs. In two seasons Barber has caught 41 passes for a 7.6 average and 2 TDs.

5. SCORING: Mo-Jo's FBG scoring rank last season: #8 overall. Barber's FBG scoring rank last season: #14 overall. Barber's FBG scoring rank the year before: #35.

They don't seem like very similar running backs to me. I'm not saying you should be down on Barber or that you should take my word on Mo-Jo as gospel. I'm just explaining the thought process that goes into the rankings. i.e. This is how I see things.

QUOTE (Buckna @ Apr 6 2007, 10:56 AM)

Another minor quibble, I would put McNabb at the top of tier 2. The only thing holding him back is health, his PPG average was #1 among QB's last year, he's a monster when on the field. Even if I was projecting him to go down somewhere between week 10-13 every year, it'd be worth it to draft him a couple of rounds in an initial draft after Peyton or Palmer for all those points in the first 2/3rds of the season he gives you. That's a huge benefit to getting you in the playoffs.

I don't think we disagree here. I've seen people knock McNabb for his injury proclivities, but I think most of that criticism misses the point. It's on you to find a reliable back-up for your dynasty team if McNabb is your starter. If he puts up elite production while he's healthy, you have a leg up on all but 2 or 3 teams in the league. If McNabb goes down and you can plug in a Kitna last year, or Delhomme the year before, or Favre the year before that (among others), then you aren't really losing a competitive edge. Better to have an injury prone guy for half the season (and a reliable back-up) than to have a guy who puts up production that is closer to the pack for a whole season.

That said, here's my concern with McNabb: a lot of his value over his career has been tied up in his running ability and athleticism. How will that be affected by his ACL injury? At least for 2007, I don't expect him to be running nearly as much. He's not really a pure passer so much as he's an elite all-around QB, so I wonder how much of a weekly difference maker he will be with reduced mobility in the pocket and minus the major threat of breaking off a long run.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 6 2007, 04:06 PM

QUOTE (Driver @ Apr 6 2007, 02:23 PM)

Just a quick note of gratitude to F&L -- hope you're feeling better from the pneumonia. After reading and reflecting on the long debate over "talent vs. situation," a couple thoughts came to me. First, I thought there were numerous good points made about valuation of players for dynasty purposes by many persons (in addition to the 2 primary debaters).

Second, I have an even deeper appreciation for all of the time and effort that F&L has put into this thread (which I think is incredible and awesome, definitely would be on the short list for best ever IMO). Not to mention his willingness to share his rankings, his thought process, his insights, and his gut feelings (not to mention the tiers, numerical scores, clearly describing his assumptions, etc., etc.). And last but not least by any means, for taking the time to respond to many, many comments/criticisms in a thoughtful manner.

I think the output of this thread is extremely valuable and a real service to many of us here. Thanks once again to F&L for a job well-done.

Driver, Thank you...

If you could see me now, I'd make the Mona Lisa look self-doubting.

the_sig

Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

Jeff Pasquino

Apr 6 2007, 11:51 PM

QUOTE (the_sig @ Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM)

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

No question this is a solid thread. Keep up the the great work.

Please give us some feedback as what aspects you'd like to see on our dynasty rankings. Bloom and I are already planning on a "why we made a change" column / article during this upcoming season. What else do you want to see?

A question for the OP - what's a playoff dynasty league that I saw your referring to a few posts back?

Fear & Loathing

Apr 7 2007, 12:41 AM

QUOTE (Jeff Pasquino @ Apr 6 2007, 11:51 PM)

QUOTE (the_sig @ Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM)

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

No question this is a solid thread. Keep up the the great work.

Please give us some feedback as what aspects you'd like to see on our dynasty rankings. Bloom and I are already planning on a "why we made a change" column / article during this upcoming season. What else do you want to see?

A question for the OP - what's a playoff dynasty league that I saw your referring to a few posts back?

Thanks, Jeff.

When I referred to playoff dynasty leagues, I was talking about a league that has a 17 week regular season with "x" amount of teams going to the playoffs during the NFL playoffs. In my 12-team leagues, the top 6 teams go to the playoffs. The top 3 regular season teams do get a set amount of dollars based on where they finished, but the bigger money is in the playoffs.

The top 6 teams must come up with a playoff roster, which is where the strategy & competition really kicks up a couple of notches. Most guys make a couple (or a series) of trades with the non-playoff teams to acquire impact playoff players...giving up draft picks and promising young players in the process. I try to have my playoff base built during the season, so I don't have to worry about giving up guys like Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson if the non-playoff teams are into price gouging.

The playoff point totals are cumulative, and the winner isn't usually determined until after the Super Bowl is over. Your starting lineup is the same format as a regular season game except you lose a position if that player's team goes home. i.e. if you started Larry Johnson in round one, you lost a RB spot when the Chiefs lost to the Colts. If you had LT2 and didn't want to worry about losing that RB spot, you don't start anybody at LT2's spot in round one. As long as your player keeps winning, you can plug a different player into that position the next week if you so desire. I think this part is a lot like the non-dynasty playoff leagues that a lot of guys participate in.

Homefield advantage is awarded based on regular season wins. #1 seed starts out with 18, #2 with 15, #3 with 12 and so on. But this can be tweaked depending on how much weight you want to give to the regular season.

Like I've said before, it really forces you to use more strategy. It keeps you very involved during the NFL playoffs. There's much less luck involved than those crummy week 14-16 playoff leagues. It creatively adds a much needed parity to dynasty leagues by forcing the better owners to give up quality to get quality playoff players in return. On the other hand, tearing your team apart for a championship run is far from mandatory. I try to keep a strong nucleus of good young players, and use my depth and draft picks to add a key playoff piece here and there.

When you earn a championship banner, you know you've had to fight tooth and nail to get it.

Anymore, I figure Week 14-16 playoffs are for re-draft leagues with old friends. There's too much luck, not enough strategy involved and it fails to take advantage of the most important games of the NFL season. I don't know if I could go back to a non-playoff dynasty league at this point. You invest so much more in a dynasty playoff league.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 7 2007, 01:42 AM

QUOTE (the_sig @ Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM)

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

the sig: Thanks for the kind words.

I will try to incorporate the high end rookies into these rankings after the draft, but by no means do I consider myself an expert on college football...especially relative to some of the guys around here who are at the guru level. As I'm not going to go into much depth there, you're probably better off checking with Bloom, et al. on rookies.

See post #223 on page 5 of this thread for a more in-depth answer. Thanks again and please throw your around here more often whether you agree or disagree...

Biabreakable

Apr 7 2007, 02:16 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 03:28 PM)

QUOTE (Biabreakable @ Mar 15 2007, 03:40 AM)

How did you create this point scale 1-100 for each player? And what does it mean?

I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.

Curious about what is behind your point scale.

Great thread Fear and Loathing.

Fair question. Let's see here...

I used to toy around with those kinds of point scales based on handing out 1-10 points per category and tallying them all up to see who goes where. There are several problems with these systems. First of all, not all categories are created equal. Secondly, it's an unscientific grade that you're assigning each category, so it's nonsensical to aim for a scientific outcome. Finally, I'm never satisfied with the outcomes. For example, somebody like Culpepper will end up finishing way too high. And then you have to start fudging with the numbers to get him lower. Then if you're fudging his, you end up messing with a few others as well. To sum up, I've found those types of scales to be literally more trouble than the spreadsheet they're printed on are worth.

Frankly, these rankings are not very scientific. There are two reasons for that. First, the goal is not a complex one: per requests in other dynasty threads, I'm simply trying to better represent value by showing where the gaps are and using a system that assigns value much better than a simple 1 thru 75 numbering sequence. Secondly, I think we're overloaded with numbers, studies, etc. anymore. Ten years ago, most of us in this thread dominated all of our leagues strictly as a result of having more information than the other guys in our leagues. The internet changed all of that now. Everybody has access to quality information on a regular basis. Fantasy football studies are ubiquitous...especially on this site (which is a great thing). So what happens when everybody is looking at the same studies? Opinions vary much less because we tend to fall in line behind "proof" and hesitantly push our instincts and gut-feelings to the side. How then do we gain an edge on the guys looking at the same information?

My theory is this: if we all have ready access to the same information, how do you gain an edge on the upper echelon competition? Instincts honed by knowledge, which is honed by news updates, stats, trends and studies. That's what these rankings are in a nutshell. Instincts. There's no statistical or scientific basis to the numbers, but rather an attempt at showing differences in value as I perceive them.

Fair enough and your points are well taken. I know at the end of the day no matter how much "proof" and information I have compiled there are still circumstances that will lead me to choose one player over another. Ushualy this is because of perception, ADP and putting together a TEAM that causes me to choose a player that may be ranked lower than another based on proof or vice versa. Or one player being available at a better price making that player more valuable just because of the price tag despite what my "proof" may be telling me.

Also "proof" is mostly based upon the past and one thing that is definitly proven is that things change.

At the same time I use facts to keep me from drifting too far off the path and getting lost in the wilderness. Having a reality check is a important thing for me so as not to allow my imagination to run wild. I need boundries even when everything is in motion.

I still do not understand what your numbers mean however. What do they represent? How do you use them? Or how are they intended to be used?

SDJohnny

Apr 7 2007, 02:23 AM

the_sig

Apr 9 2007, 09:58 AM

QUOTE (Jeff Pasquino @ Apr 6 2007, 10:51 PM)

QUOTE (the_sig @ Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM)

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

No question this is a solid thread. Keep up the the great work.

Please give us some feedback as what aspects you'd like to see on our dynasty rankings. Bloom and I are already planning on a "why we made a change" column / article during this upcoming season. What else do you want to see?

A question for the OP - what's a playoff dynasty league that I saw your referring to a few posts back?

Hi Jeff,

In terms of feedback, off the top of my head, three things I like better about the F&L rankings are:

1. Tiering. I like putting my own rankings in tiers, just helps me during the draft. I may not agree with all of F&L's rankings/tier points, but appreciate the thought and effort.

2. Love the brief commentary attached to each player. For the most part I know we could ask you or Sig or others for why they rank players where they do, or why they have moved up or down....but on the whole, it is nice to have the brief comment already there.

3. Love the player age information attached to each player. Again, I know this is data we can all get elsewhere, but I appreciate seeing it right with the player.

the_sig

Apr 9 2007, 10:13 AM

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Apr 7 2007, 12:42 AM)

QUOTE (the_sig @ Apr 6 2007, 04:36 PM)

F&L, a big thanks for all the work you have put in here

This is one of the threads I keep coming back to again an again. I've gotta say content-wise, I like what you do here better than the updated dynasty rankings that Jeff & Sig have in the premium content.

Quick question, I have an initial dynasty startup draft coming up in May. Any chance you will be incorporating the incoming rooks into your rankings once we know what teams they are going to?

Again, thanks for all your work here.

the sig: Thanks for the kind words.

I will try to incorporate the high end rookies into these rankings after the draft, but by no means do I consider myself an expert on college football...especially relative to some of the guys around here who are at the guru level. As I'm not going to go into much depth there, you're probably better off checking with Bloom, et al. on rookies.

See post #223 on page 5 of this thread for a more in-depth answer. Thanks again and please throw your around here more often whether you agree or disagree...

F&L:

Thanks for the response. If you end up putting any rooks into your rankings, great, if not, I understand. I am faced with an upcoming dynasty draft where this years rook's and vets are in one draft, hence my interest in getting any opinions you may have on where some of the top rooks may fall.

FWIW, I acknowledge my lack of great talent evaluator skills when it comes to rookies, so I tried to play to that fact in the aforementioned upcoming draft. I traded out of my 1.03 pick (among other picks) to amass a group of 7 picks between overall pick 17 and 45 (this is a 14 team league). I feel like I will be able to put together a great 'win now' team.

Any thoughts on my trading down from 1.03? (I'm sure many will figure I'm crazy)

BusMan

Apr 9 2007, 10:13 AM

Fighting Noles

Apr 18 2007, 04:23 PM

Any Team Defense Ratings F & L...?? Great Work on this post...

Couch Potato

Apr 18 2007, 06:15 PM

QUOTE (Fighting Noles @ Apr 18 2007, 01:23 PM)

Any Team Defense Ratings F & L...?? Great Work on this post...

Post #160, in January.

mightyeskimo

Apr 18 2007, 06:28 PM

Great Work!

Carter_Can_Fly

Apr 18 2007, 06:42 PM

Am late on this one but good thread.

Grimmett

Apr 18 2007, 09:04 PM

Impressive stuff F&L. I'll pile on with the others and say "Keep up the great work!"

Fighting Noles

Apr 19 2007, 12:24 AM

QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Apr 18 2007, 04:15 PM)

QUOTE (Fighting Noles @ Apr 18 2007, 01:23 PM)

Any Team Defense Ratings F & L...?? Great Work on this post...

Post #160, in January.

Thanks Couch Potato - I missed that earlier!

chook

Apr 19 2007, 09:11 AM

Sorry to be the millionth person to do so but...

And very

cscmtp

Apr 19 2007, 09:23 AM

great job! My only suggestion is to move Santana Moss up. The QB position is the ONLY thing that can hold this guy back. I still think he's Steve Smith part deux. When Brunell had that magical last run in 2005, Moss exploded. Then it was clear Brunell had nothing left in the tank in 2006, and Moss' numbers struggled. Then they put in an extremely green Campbell who in reality was a rookie. But I am hopeful that Campbell will make big strides this year. He has the arm and mobility to actually get the ball down field (something Brunell could no longer do). Just like Smith stunk last year when Delhomme whent down (no fault of his own) I feel that same way about Santana's numbers last year. I expect he'll finish the year in the top 10 IF Campbell is as solid as I think he'll be.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 19 2007, 10:46 AM

QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Apr 18 2007, 06:15 PM)

QUOTE (Fighting Noles @ Apr 18 2007, 01:23 PM)

Any Team Defense Ratings F & L...?? Great Work on this post...

Post #160, in January.

Look at Coach Potato handling my light work. Nicely done and much appreciated.

I was going to wait until May to finish defenses because I wanted to see how the draft played out and make sure the free agents were pretty much done.

As of right now, there isn't much point in going beyond the top 5:

1. Chicago Bears - The Briggs talk is worrisome, but this looks to be a great unit again with Harris & Brown due back healthy. Archuletta is an interesting addition, and the draft may bring even more reinforcements.
2. San Diego Chargers - They're young, talented and in line to keep improving.
3. New England Patriots - Impressive beginning to the offseason with the Adalious Thomas coup. He will be a great fit for the Pats. Most experts believe the Pats will shore up their secondary and linebacking crew early in the draft.
4. Baltimore Ravens - I had them as the #2 defense going into last season behind the Bears, but I think they'll take a step back this year. Adalious Thomas is gone, Ray-Ray is another year older, Traylor won't play as well, and injuries will probably take a bigger toll.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - Elite DT's Henderson & Stroud are still in their prime and do a tremendous job shutting down the run. Mathis has turned into a pro-bowl caliber cornerback, and the linebackers are solid. This team is still built around its defense, and they have a good mix of youth and experience.

I'll put much more effort into this after the NFL draft.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 19 2007, 11:06 AM

QUOTE (cscmtp @ Apr 19 2007, 09:23 AM)

great job! My only suggestion is to move Santana Moss up. The QB position is the ONLY thing that can hold this guy back. I still think he's Steve Smith part deux. When Brunell had that magical last run in 2005, Moss exploded. Then it was clear Brunell had nothing left in the tank in 2006, and Moss' numbers struggled. Then they put in an extremely green Campbell who in reality was a rookie. But I am hopeful that Campbell will make big strides this year. He has the arm and mobility to actually get the ball down field (something Brunell could no longer do). Just like Smith stunk last year when Delhomme whent down (no fault of his own) I feel that same way about Santana's numbers last year. I expect he'll finish the year in the top 10 IF Campbell is as solid as I think he'll be.

Thanks to all the guys for their positive replies.

cscmtp: Remember the Seinfeld episode where Frank Costanza interprets a line from the father of his old Korean girlfriend? "This guy......this is not my kind of guy." Well, that's how I feel about Santana Moss.

I can see the temptation to compare him to Steve Smith; however, I see three major differences between the diminutive game breakers. Smith is much better at going up in traffic and coming down with the ball. Much better. Despite his size, Smith catches in traffic as well as any WR in the league. Secondly, Smith is superior inside the red zone. Partially due to the point above, he is looked to more heavily in the end zone than Moss is. Finally, Delhomme locks onto Steve Smith. This could be a problem if Carr takes over, but I don't think Campbell will try to get the ball to Moss as much as Delhomme does with Smith. And you appear to have much more faith in Jason Campbell overall as a QB than I do.

One last point to consider is the "consistency" debate. I know there are some smart people on these boards who consider the WR inconsistency label a myth. I, however, disagree. I do think Santana Moss has been a very unreliable fantasy contributor, and that's a problem in dynasty leagues moreso than redraft. He has been unreliable not only from game to game but also from season to season. I could change my mind on this one in the future, but he's going to have to show me before I do. He could clearly finish top 10 this year and in the process make me look foolish for awhile...until he finishes 30th again in '08.

Who would you move him ahead of? I think in any given year he could be a better choice than Plax, Housh and others ahead. I just worry about him more in dynasty leagues. I don't know how lucky I feel about Santana this year...and that's really the bottom line: Do I want a roll of the dice every year as my #1 or #2 WR?

KellysHeroes

Apr 19 2007, 11:11 AM

[74] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett & McMichael; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[73]Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[71] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & signing of Kevin Curtis vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off; if he shows he's healthy to start pre-season, I'll move him up to 3rd or 4th

I favor Bulger more than Brady.. better weapons and a more friendly / pass happy offense. StL D also causes them to score more pts.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 24 2007, 05:22 PM

QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ Apr 19 2007, 11:11 AM)

[74] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett & McMichael; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[73]Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[71] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & signing of Kevin Curtis vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off; if he shows he's healthy to start pre-season, I'll move him up to 3rd or 4th

I favor Bulger more than Brady.. better weapons and a more friendly / pass happy offense. StL D also causes them to score more pts.

They're obviously close in value. I think it comes down to personal preference and league set-up. Here's a good old fashioned tale of the tape:

NFL Talent: Brady
Quality of NFL Team: Brady
Offensive Weapons: Bulger
Redzone Production: Brady
Health: Brady
Yardage: Bulger
Dependability: Brady
'07 Upside: Bulger
Career Upside: Brady

Like I said, a lot depends on your league. I tend to give Brady credit because he's a winner, and the Pats are an annual contender. I realize that has no bearing on value in many leagues, but it carries a lot of weight in mine. I also like the fact that Brady consistently puts up 24-28 TDs, whereas 24 is the high water mark for Bulger.

I think if you're in the mood to gamble on the one who could put up a career year in '07, Bulger has a better chance for an outlier type of season. On the other hand, he also has a better chance of getting injured and/or slumping. Long term, I prefer Brady. Short term, Bulger may well be the better payoff. It's up to you to decide which one better fits the needs of your team.

Ariakis

Apr 29 2007, 05:39 PM

time for a new round of updates!

Fear & Loathing

Apr 30 2007, 02:13 AM

QUOTE (Ariakis @ Apr 29 2007, 05:39 PM)

time for a new round of updates!

While watching "Planet Earth", I've been putting a few hours of prep work in for a "Draft Weekend Dynasty Risers & Fallers" list and then a revision of all of the positional rankings.

I'm about half-way through the Risers & Fallers writeup and hope to have it finished sometime Monday.

Grimmett

Apr 30 2007, 06:33 AM

Sweet!

Fear & Loathing

Apr 30 2007, 01:20 PM

TOP 15 NFL DRAFT WEEKEND DYNASTY TUMBLERS

1. Chester Taylor MIN RB - Minnesota figures to run the ball a ton this season; regardless, Taylor takes a drastic tumble from every week starter to plain old unstartable
2. Darrell Jackson SF WR - Even if D-Jax didn't owe a large portion of his production to Holmgren's system and Hasselbeck's play, only the truly elite WRs can typically withstand a significant downtick in production as they move to a new team.
3. Daunte Culpepper MIA QB - Is he going to get a chance to keep his job in MIA? The Trent Green talk isn't going away, and the new regime is obviously putting the franchise's future in Beck's hands. Where does that leave Culpepper? The other teams have their QB situation just about cemented for '07
4. Charlie Frye CLE QB - Unless you're under the deluded belief that he's going to pull a Drew Brees and metamorphasize into a pro-bowl QB to prove his franchise wrong for drafting a high profile replacement, his value is all gone
5. Devery Henderson NO WR - Looks like he won't step into Joe Horn's role afterall; even if he ends up the #2 WR to start the year, Meachem is the better talent and figures to steal much of Henderson's value
6. Mike Furrey DET WR - If you were counting on Furrey being startable again this year, that's nobody's fault but your own. He'll play the slot, but he now goes from interesting possibility to complete non-factor
7. Brian Westbrook PHI RB - Still very valuable in PPR leagues, but Hunt's presence is definitely a concern inside the 10 yard line. Additionally, will we ignore retirement talk after Tiki proved it's not always a bluff?
8. Ronnie Brown MIA RB - We still have no idea what's going on with Ricky, but Lorenzo Booker's presence now leaves open the question of whether Brown will be a 2-down back despite his own underrated prowess in the passing game
9. Matt Hasselbeck SEA QB - Coming off a disappointing season and shoulder surgery, he's now lost his #1 WR, his starting tight-end and his center a year after losing his all-pro guard.
10. Chris Perry CIN RB - Obviously no longer seen as Rudi's heir-apparent, his injuries could leave him on the sidelines to start the season and, even worse, without a job down the road
11. Lamont Jordan OAK RB - After an injury-plagued & value draining season, he's forced to take a paycut to avoid being cut, then the team signs Rhodes to take a chunk out of his playing time only to later draft a possible replacement in Bush. He's fallen from sure-fire Top 10 to a questionable Top 35 in less than a year. Another data point on the dangers of placing a higher priority on the most recent season's numbers as opposed to talent & situation. Or, if you prefer, last year's Chester Taylor.
12. Vince Young TEN QB - With a disappointing off-season on the heels of such an exciting finish to the season, I just can't shake this bad feeling I have about the Titans going into '07; Pacman's suspension, Travis Henry's departure, their failure to add even one respectable receiving threat
13. Chris Chambers MIA WR - The whole Dolphins offense scares me, but especially their passing game. Who's going to be throwing him the ball in '07? How about '08? At least they'll have options: will it be the scrap-heap veteran? Maybe the inexperienced back-up? How about the headcase, injury-prone shell of his former self? Should we add overrated rookie?
14. Alex Smith TB TE - Has yet to make the leap to dependable starter and now has to contend with another obstacle in Jerramy Stevens
15. Donte Stallworth NE WR - The new kid in town isn't so new anymore. Quite a steep fall from much ballyhooed massive Caldwell/Gaffney upgrade at go-to WR all the way down to just another option in the passing game in one weekend.

Fear & Loathing

Apr 30 2007, 01:52 PM

TOP 15 NFL DRAFT WEEKEND RISERS

1. Randy Moss NE WR - Life is obviously fair. If anyone deserved the old "outhouse to penthouse" treatment, it was Randy Moss... right ? A now motivated Moss is running 4.29 40's and goes from a disastrous, soul-draining operation led by the inept Art Shell, Andrew Walter & Aaron Brooks to football Valhalla with Brady & Belichik
2. Jon Kitna DET QB - Stanton is much less of an immediate threat than Quinn would have been; Calvin Johnson has the type of talent to make a Moss-like rookie impact; 2nd season in Martz' system. This is now a QB who could win you a dynasty championship in '07.
3. Tom Brady NE QB - A great redzone QB adds the best redzone target in the league to go along with previous acquisitions Stallworth & Welker
4. D.J. Hackett SEA WR - Not only was he often the most productive WR on the field when he was in the game, but he's also put up very intriguing catch percentages in his short history. I like his chances of leapfrogging Branch to become SEA's most valuable fantasy WR.
5. Jerious Norwood ATL RB - It was commonly assumed that ATL would add a more physical RB this offseason, but the draft came & went without a threat to the Norwood/Dunn tandem. I still see Norwood's future as less than an every down back, but the draft was a great boost to his owners
6. Joseph Addai IND RB - I've been guessing Indy as the likely landing spot for Chris Brown, but it has to be good news that the Colts didn't add a tandem partner for Addai in the draft
7. Tarvaris Jackson MIN QB - After much outsider speculation, he's still the present & future at QB in MIN. The Vikes figure to rely heavily on their defense & running game going forward, so Jackson won't be asked to carry the offense before he's ready.
8. Alex Smith SF QB - D-Jax fills a gaping hole at go-to WR, plus Niners add a 1st round OT in Staley and a sleeper 3rd round WR in Hill; team has surrounded Smith with a lot more talent this season
9. Jamal Lewis CLE RB - Browns add franchise QB & franchise LT to go with all-pro talent Eric Steinbach; Lewis will get a chance to be a running game ballast for a season while the passing game finds itself
10. LenDale White TEN RB - Adding a reliable veteran was worst-case scenario with a draft day Michael Turner acquisition being the most ominous threat. While the Titans think highly of Chris Henry, there certainly is a high bust factor there, and I think FatDale is the better talent as well as the better bet to carry the load in '07.
11. Greg Jennings GB WR - What got lost in the Moss-to-GB rumors is the fact that Jennings had a very promising start to his NFL career. The Pack has shown their faith in Jennings as the clear #2 WR and, really, why not?
12. Deion Branch SEA WR - While I believe Hackett benefits the most from the D-Jax trade, there's no denying it should help Branch with a more defined value and an increase in targets
13. Laurence Maroney NE RB - The Pats could have muddied the picture by selecting a RB threat to Maroney's production. Instead, they've added receiving weapons to spread the offense and create space in the running game.
14. Mike Williams OAK WR - Still just 23 years old, Williams moves from an offense ill-suited to his strengths and a team which had soured on him to a fresh start in an offense run by his former college coach
15. Brandon Jones TEN WR - It's ugly at WR in Tennessee. Afternoon talk show ugly. On the bright side, the Titans' failure to upgrade means they're counting on Brandon Jones to step into the #1 WR role. It's not like they have any other options...

Fear & Loathing

Apr 30 2007, 02:17 PM

STATIC

Michael Turner SD RB - I've been ranking him based mostly on value from '08 forward. That hasn't changed.
Vernand Morency GB RB - I assumed he would share carries this year with whomever the Packers drafted. Jackson is better news than Lynch, but Morency is still unlikely to have the job to himself.
Roy Williams DET WR - It's not unusual for an offense to support 2 stud WRs, and Martz' is certainly one that can.
Steven Jackson STL RB - There was no way Jackson was going to catch 90 passes again in '07. The Rams were desperate for a back-up RB, and Leonard is the perfect compliment to Steven Jackson. If he didn't drain Ray Rice's production, he's certainly not going to have a significant impact on Steven Jackson's value.
Edgerrin James ARI RB - The Cards have added help on the O-Line, but I still believe Edge is running on fumes and unlikely to see the endzone often.
Josh McCown OAK QB - Much like Brad Johnson last season, he may open the season as the starter but that doesn't mean you'll want him anywhere near your lineup while we're waiting for the inevitable collapse.
Braylon Edwards CLE WR - With Winslow a gigantic question mark and no help in the draft, Edwards basically is the Cleveland receiving game. Unfortunately, he's going to have either Charlie Frye or a rookie throwing him the ball again.
Cadillac Williams TB RB - The Bucs have added help along the offensive line, but their QB play will still be way below average, their WRs remain pedestrian and Pittman/Alstott still loom. Bottom line, it's still a poor offense.
Brandon Jacobs NYG RB - After already adding Droughns, I didn't expect the Giants to make RB a priority in the draft.
Cleo Lemon MIA QB - Who knows? Lemon remains the darkhorse starter, which means it will still be surprising to see him under center in game 1.
J.P. Losman BUF QB - I was tempted to put him in the "Falling" category because they're still exceptionally weak at WR beyond Evans, and Edwards could be a threat beyond '07. But I've probably been a little too rough on Losman the last couple of years, and his value is unlikely to change for awhile.

Bob Magaw

Apr 30 2007, 03:07 PM

bravo...

well done, again, F & L

thanx & keep up the strong work

KellysHeroes

Apr 30 2007, 03:45 PM

I think the improvement made to SF.. A Smith is almost a startable / Sleeper FF QB

I say Satllworth takes a major blow.. he went from a #2 FF WR to an unstartable #3/#4 WR
Thats very hurtfull for those that draft him pre-NFL Draft..

As a Devery Henderson owner.. I'm not worried about the new rook.. Henderson was going to be a slot guy in the 1st place and he should still have an 800-1000yd / 5 - 8TDs this season

Other than that.. its a very good list..

Ariakis

Apr 30 2007, 03:57 PM

I think Ronnie Brown was going to split some carries to keep him fresh and productive so this shouldn't hurt his status much and in fact makes it less likely that Ricky returns. I would still put him around a low to mid RB1.

This may actually help Stallworth as he is more of a WR2 anyway and now as teams roll coverage to Moss and defending Maroney he will still be an excellent deep threat and carry probably WR2 value.

I am also not ready to write off Chester Taylor especially after watching Deuce and Bush coexist. Most teams are going to two RB's and it's not as if ADP has been the model of health. Taylor's value this year will be that of a top reserve I'd think and unknown going forward.

KellysHeroes

Apr 30 2007, 04:20 PM

QUOTE (Ariakis @ Apr 30 2007, 01:57 PM)

This may actually help Stallworth as he is more of a WR2 anyway and now as teams roll coverage to Moss and defending Maroney he will still be an excellent deep threat and carry probably WR2 value.

NO way.. Stallworth was the field strecther and Welker was going to be the possesion.. now that Moss is there.. who knows what Stall's place is there..

Brady will look for 1) Moss 2) Watson 3) Stall or Welker

Don't be surprised if there are games that Stall doesn't even get a look