You guys have me completely jazzed about owning Calvin and Fitz. With our league moving towards PPR (0.5 PPR next year), Portis is likely to see the door in our 4-keeper. Can't thank all of you enough for your input. Wish I could add anything near the value that you guys provide.
BTW, has anyone mentioned Norwood's ability to block effectively and/or read plays as the reason he's not an "every down back"? The few games I've seen, he's missed some big assignments. Dunn has always been a great blocker and interpreter of the defense.
BTW, has anyone mentioned Norwood's ability to block effectively and/or read plays as the reason he's not an "every down back"? The few games I've seen, he's missed some big assignments. Dunn has always been a great blocker and interpreter of the defense.
A thought occurred to me about Ben Roethlisberger. I'd been targeting FWP as a buy-low because I thought Pittsburgh's TD breakdown this year was a fluke, but I wasn't penalizing Roeth for the same thing. I decided to look a bit more in-depth into this.
So far this season, Pittsburgh is on pace for 32 TDs passing and 8.6 TDs rushing. In previous years, that ratio has been 23:16, 21:21, 20:16, 19:10 (the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 26:15 (the year Maddox came out slinging which led to the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 16:17, 12:19, 19:14, 13:8, 22:19, 15:18, 21:17, 17:15, 16:13, and 15:13. That covers the entire Bill Cowher era.
Now, I realize two things. First off, we have a new head coach this year, so any shifts in breakdowns could very possibly represent a fundamental philosophical shift (in this case, passing more in the red zone). Second off, Pittsburgh hasn't had a QB as talented as Roethlisberger since Terry Bradshaw, and that's probably a big reason why the passing TDs were so low before. With that said, this year's pass:rush TD breakdown still strikes me as an extraordinary aberration. The only seasons that even come close to this year's 3.7:1 ratio are the two Tommy Maddox years (which clock in at 1.7:1 and 1.9:1, respectively, which means it's a stretch to claim they're even in the same ballpark). Basically, Ben's TD totals are almost guaranteed to come back down to earth next season. Hard. He might be lucky if only 8 of those passing TDs become rushing TDs in the future.
I still like Ben in the long-term, because he's supremely talented and, most importantly, in an extremely stable situation (how many other QBs are you as confident will still be starting for the same team 8 years from now? 4? 5?). Still, it's possible that now might be the time to start trying to move him, because I question whether his value will be this high again for a long time to come.
So far this season, Pittsburgh is on pace for 32 TDs passing and 8.6 TDs rushing. In previous years, that ratio has been 23:16, 21:21, 20:16, 19:10 (the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 26:15 (the year Maddox came out slinging which led to the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 16:17, 12:19, 19:14, 13:8, 22:19, 15:18, 21:17, 17:15, 16:13, and 15:13. That covers the entire Bill Cowher era.
Now, I realize two things. First off, we have a new head coach this year, so any shifts in breakdowns could very possibly represent a fundamental philosophical shift (in this case, passing more in the red zone). Second off, Pittsburgh hasn't had a QB as talented as Roethlisberger since Terry Bradshaw, and that's probably a big reason why the passing TDs were so low before. With that said, this year's pass:rush TD breakdown still strikes me as an extraordinary aberration. The only seasons that even come close to this year's 3.7:1 ratio are the two Tommy Maddox years (which clock in at 1.7:1 and 1.9:1, respectively, which means it's a stretch to claim they're even in the same ballpark). Basically, Ben's TD totals are almost guaranteed to come back down to earth next season. Hard. He might be lucky if only 8 of those passing TDs become rushing TDs in the future.
I still like Ben in the long-term, because he's supremely talented and, most importantly, in an extremely stable situation (how many other QBs are you as confident will still be starting for the same team 8 years from now? 4? 5?). Still, it's possible that now might be the time to start trying to move him, because I question whether his value will be this high again for a long time to come.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 15 2007, 06:24 PM) 
A thought occurred to me about Ben Roethlisberger. I'd been targeting FWP as a buy-low because I thought Pittsburgh's TD breakdown this year was a fluke, but I wasn't penalizing Roeth for the same thing. I decided to look a bit more in-depth into this.
So far this season, Pittsburgh is on pace for 32 TDs passing and 8.6 TDs rushing. In previous years, that ratio has been 23:16, 21:21, 20:16, 19:10 (the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 26:15 (the year Maddox came out slinging which led to the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 16:17, 12:19, 19:14, 13:8, 22:19, 15:18, 21:17, 17:15, 16:13, and 15:13. That covers the entire Bill Cowher era.
Now, I realize two things. First off, we have a new head coach this year, so any shifts in breakdowns could very possibly represent a fundamental philosophical shift (in this case, passing more in the red zone). Second off, Pittsburgh hasn't had a QB as talented as Roethlisberger since Terry Bradshaw, and that's probably a big reason why the passing TDs were so low before. With that said, this year's pass:rush TD breakdown still strikes me as an extraordinary aberration. The only seasons that even come close to this year's 3.7:1 ratio are the two Tommy Maddox years (which clock in at 1.7:1 and 1.9:1, respectively, which means it's a stretch to claim they're even in the same ballpark). Basically, Ben's TD totals are almost guaranteed to come back down to earth next season. Hard. He might be lucky if only 8 of those passing TDs become rushing TDs in the future.
I still like Ben in the long-term, because he's supremely talented and, most importantly, in an extremely stable situation (how many other QBs are you as confident will still be starting for the same team 8 years from now? 4? 5?). Still, it's possible that now might be the time to start trying to move him, because I question whether his value will be this high again for a long time to come.
So far this season, Pittsburgh is on pace for 32 TDs passing and 8.6 TDs rushing. In previous years, that ratio has been 23:16, 21:21, 20:16, 19:10 (the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 26:15 (the year Maddox came out slinging which led to the 6-10 pass-heavy season), 16:17, 12:19, 19:14, 13:8, 22:19, 15:18, 21:17, 17:15, 16:13, and 15:13. That covers the entire Bill Cowher era.
Now, I realize two things. First off, we have a new head coach this year, so any shifts in breakdowns could very possibly represent a fundamental philosophical shift (in this case, passing more in the red zone). Second off, Pittsburgh hasn't had a QB as talented as Roethlisberger since Terry Bradshaw, and that's probably a big reason why the passing TDs were so low before. With that said, this year's pass:rush TD breakdown still strikes me as an extraordinary aberration. The only seasons that even come close to this year's 3.7:1 ratio are the two Tommy Maddox years (which clock in at 1.7:1 and 1.9:1, respectively, which means it's a stretch to claim they're even in the same ballpark). Basically, Ben's TD totals are almost guaranteed to come back down to earth next season. Hard. He might be lucky if only 8 of those passing TDs become rushing TDs in the future.
I still like Ben in the long-term, because he's supremely talented and, most importantly, in an extremely stable situation (how many other QBs are you as confident will still be starting for the same team 8 years from now? 4? 5?). Still, it's possible that now might be the time to start trying to move him, because I question whether his value will be this high again for a long time to come.
This is on opinion that comes solely from watching games, but Roethlisberger has always been a great redzone QB. When the Steelers had Bettis and Cowher, you knew they were going to try to pound it in more often than not. But on the times when they chose to mix it up, Big Ben was Favre-ian in his redzone ability. He has the mobility, creativity, size, arm strength, and decisiveness to get the ball to great redzone weapons like Hines Ward and Heath Miller
.Now that Bettis and Cowher are gone, Parker is less than ideal for the Steelers inside the 10; meanwhile, Big Ben is more experienced, and I think they've become a redzone passing team like the Packers have always been. They'll pound it in when they have to, but a QB that can pass inside the 10 like Manning, Brady, or Favre gives the offense a much better chance to score TDs instead of settling for field goals (as opposed to a Marc Bulger who is poo inside the 10 yard line).
I'd be careful buying low on Willie Parker. It isn't simply the statistical variation that has him scoring fewer TDs, it's also in the way they're using Najeh. It's kind of like saying that Fred Taylor is due to score more touchdowns because the yardage is there. Are you sure about that?
Just my
"This is the kind of material on which the thread thrives. Thanks for posting it. "
Couldnt have said it any better fellas. Thanks so much F&L for taking the time to respond to my post. Also enjoyed AZ profs rebuttal too.
Gl to all the owners still in the hunt for fantasy money!
Couldnt have said it any better fellas. Thanks so much F&L for taking the time to respond to my post. Also enjoyed AZ profs rebuttal too.
Gl to all the owners still in the hunt for fantasy money!
:LongTimeListenerFirstTimeCallerWhiteCorner:
nothing to add. I just keep up on this thread and realized I never white-cornered it.
Great work to everyone in here.
nothing to add. I just keep up on this thread and realized I never white-cornered it.
Great work to everyone in here.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 15 2007, 07:26 PM)
This is on opinion that comes solely from watching games, but Roethlisberger has always been a great redzone QB. When the Steelers had Bettis and Cowher, you knew they were going to try to pound it in more often than not. But on the times when they chose to mix it up, Big Ben was Favre-ian in his redzone ability. He has the mobility, creativity, size, arm strength, and decisiveness to get the ball to great redzone weapons like Hines Ward and Heath Miller .
Now that Bettis and Cowher are gone, Parker is less than ideal for the Steelers inside the 10; meanwhile, Big Ben is more experienced, and I think they've become a redzone passing team like the Packers have always been. They'll pound it in when they have to, but a QB that can pass inside the 10 like Manning, Brady, or Favre gives the offense a much better chance to score TDs instead of settling for field goals (as opposed to a Marc Bulger who is poo inside the 10 yard line).
I'd be careful buying low on Willie Parker. It isn't simply the statistical variation that has him scoring fewer TDs, it's also in the way they're using Najeh. It's kind of like saying that Fred Taylor is due to score more touchdowns because the yardage is there. Are you sure about that?
Just my
.Now that Bettis and Cowher are gone, Parker is less than ideal for the Steelers inside the 10; meanwhile, Big Ben is more experienced, and I think they've become a redzone passing team like the Packers have always been. They'll pound it in when they have to, but a QB that can pass inside the 10 like Manning, Brady, or Favre gives the offense a much better chance to score TDs instead of settling for field goals (as opposed to a Marc Bulger who is poo inside the 10 yard line).
I'd be careful buying low on Willie Parker. It isn't simply the statistical variation that has him scoring fewer TDs, it's also in the way they're using Najeh. It's kind of like saying that Fred Taylor is due to score more touchdowns because the yardage is there. Are you sure about that?
Just my
Like I said, I understand that Ben and Tomlin have something to say on the subject, but when a team that has never had so much as a 2:1 pass:run ratio suddenly posts a 3.5:1 pass:run ratio, I just have to believe that it is to some extent a fluke. Even if Pittsburgh's new true mean is at 2:1, that still means a 26:14 breakdown, which still represents a 6-TD drop. I'm not talking about starting a firesale, but if I could find someone who right now values Roeth comparably to Palmer (or if it would only require a pittance to upgrade to Romo), I'd be all over that. Roeth's value is probably peaking before regressing a little bit and settling into a nice, stable, long-term second-tier level.
Also, I wonder how Najeh is vulturing TDs from Parker. Najeh only has 3 rushing TDs on the season. And even if Najeh is a long-term vulture, one of the reasons why the TDs follow the yardage is because RBs who consistently get yards will eventually start breaking runs. Not all TDs come from inside the 5, after all. Parker might only be good for 8 scores a year in the future, but 8 scores from the guy who leads the league in rushing is all you need for a very reliable RB2 or borderline RB2. That 600+ yards per score thing is just too big of a fluke to continue on as is.
Does Garrard creep up a little bit today after the nice game he had in Pitt in the bad weather? In my main dynasty league, I've got Garrard and Kitna, so I was a little hesitant to go into next season with those two at QB - but Garrard just seems to be so consistent. With the Jacksonville offense starting to look a bit better, is it safe to assume Garrard as a low end QB1 now?
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 16 2007, 04:56 PM)
Does Garrard creep up a little bit today after the nice game he had in Pitt in the bad weather? In my main dynasty league, I've got Garrard and Kitna, so I was a little hesitant to go into next season with those two at QB - but Garrard just seems to be so consistent. With the Jacksonville offense starting to look a bit better, is it safe to assume Garrard as a low end QB1 now?
Yeah, I think his value will creep up today. I watched that whole game today, and I thought both QBs were impressive (Roethlisberger deserved a much better fate). And you're right that Garrard has been extremely consistent with his production. I think I might call Garrard a high end QB2 as opposed to a low end QB1, but I think we're on the same page regarding his future value.
Nice job with the list! Thanks.
Aaaaaand Pittsburgh is now up over 4:1 Pass:Rush breakdown with two games to go. Raise your hands if you saw this coming.
I think that Stecker deserves a large bump in the ratings. I could easily see him taking over for Deuce next year and getting 15 carries and 3-5 rec a game next year. He has filled in very well, but I am not sure what the contract situation is for him and Deuce as well.
QUOTE (Limp Dogg Bizkits @ Dec 16 2007, 08:48 PM)
I think that Stecker deserves a large bump in the ratings. I could easily see him taking over for Deuce next year and getting 15 carries and 3-5 rec a game next year. He has filled in very well, but I am not sure what the contract situation is for him and Deuce as well.
Hmmm, no offense but...
I think Stecker is terrible, and he's older than you would think. Seriously, I know what he did today, but he's no good.
QUOTE (Limp Dogg Bizkits @ Dec 16 2007, 09:48 PM)
I think that Stecker deserves a large bump in the ratings. I could easily see him taking over for Deuce next year and getting 15 carries and 3-5 rec a game next year. He has filled in very well, but I am not sure what the contract situation is for him and Deuce as well.
I think Stecker is 31-32 years old, and has been a backup since coming into the league. While he's filled in nicely the last couple of weeks and was decent enough a few years ago when Deuce missed time, I can't see him having much long term value. IIRC he's also a free agent next season. If Deuce is gone then he could have some short term value, but I can't see a whole lot from him, more like a Michael Pittman type.
QUOTE (gman8343 @ Dec 16 2007, 07:58 PM)
QUOTE (Limp Dogg Bizkits @ Dec 16 2007, 09:48 PM)
I think that Stecker deserves a large bump in the ratings. I could easily see him taking over for Deuce next year and getting 15 carries and 3-5 rec a game next year. He has filled in very well, but I am not sure what the contract situation is for him and Deuce as well.
I think Stecker is 31-32 years old, and has been a backup since coming into the league. While he's filled in nicely the last couple of weeks and was decent enough a few years ago when Deuce missed time, I can't see him having much long term value. IIRC he's also a free agent next season. If Deuce is gone then he could have some short term value, but I can't see a whole lot from him, more like a Michael Pittman type.
Why are people speculating on Stecker's age? It's not terribly difficult to look it up, with this newfangled invention known as "Google".
Stecker is 32.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Stecker
Edit to add: he's never been of starter quality, so it's difficult to see why his dynasty value should be much of anything at this age.
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Thanks.
I had no idea he was that old. Whats this "Google" that you talk about?
I had no idea he was that old. Whats this "Google" that you talk about?
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
He has stepped it up. Looked pretty damn good for two quarters today on the heels of two straight dominant performances.
Steven Jackson looked awfully good today as well. Frank Gore looked great last night.
Top tier RBs are stepping up their games while top tier QBs are peeing down their legs. December weather is a #####.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 16 2007, 09:25 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
He has stepped it up. Looked pretty damn good for two quarters today on the heels of two straight dominant performances.
Steven Jackson looked awfully good today as well. Frank Gore looked great last night.
Top tier RBs are stepping up their games while top tier QBs are peeing down their legs. December weather is a #####.
I think today makes 4 straight games where SJax has had a 40+ yard run. I cant imagine many RBs have acomplished that feat.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 16 2007, 07:30 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 16 2007, 09:25 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
He has stepped it up. Looked pretty damn good for two quarters today on the heels of two straight dominant performances.
Steven Jackson looked awfully good today as well. Frank Gore looked great last night.
Top tier RBs are stepping up their games while top tier QBs are peeing down their legs. December weather is a #####.
I think today makes 4 straight games where SJax has had a 40+ yard run. I cant imagine many RBs have acomplished that feat.
Yeah, but did he fall down on the 1 yard line?!?!?!
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Love Westbrook. Right around our league trade deadline I was out of playoff contention. I put up a post on the league board to let the other owners know he was available for the right price (moreso because I just wanted to see what he might be worth.) I didn't get any offers remotely close to what I thought his value might be, and after seeing him continue to dominate week after week, I'm glad I didn't get any tempting offers. The guy is absolute gold in PPRs, and I think he's a top 3-4 dynasty back at this point, depending on where people view him vs. Jackson.
F&L -- Lorenzo Booker has had 6 receptions in the last 3 games. Prospects? What is his upside?
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Dec 16 2007, 10:53 PM)
F&L -- Lorenzo Booker has had 6 receptions in the last 3 games. Prospects? What is his upside?
I picked him up a couple of weeks ago hoping he could turn himself into Leon Washington. I think he's probably a better bet to rack up receptions than Washington, but he doesn't look like he's as effective as a runner.
I still see him as a 3rd down back, but some clubs have had success expanding roles for 3rd down backs lately.
I don't see him reaching the endzone much, and I think his only real value is in PPR leagues.
Shockey with a fractured fibula. Ouch.
Rotoworld:
Monday evening update:
Rotoworld:
QUOTE
Jeremy Shockey suffered a fractured fibula in the third quarter Sunday night.
Shockey, who'd mostly stayed healthy this season, also damaged his ankle and will need surgery, which likely jeopardizes his availability for offseason workouts. It could also be a crippling injury for a playoff-bound Giants team that hasn't developed a reliable third receiver. Kevin Boss will become the team's new pass catching tight end, and split duties with fellow rookie Michael Matthews.
Shockey, who'd mostly stayed healthy this season, also damaged his ankle and will need surgery, which likely jeopardizes his availability for offseason workouts. It could also be a crippling injury for a playoff-bound Giants team that hasn't developed a reliable third receiver. Kevin Boss will become the team's new pass catching tight end, and split duties with fellow rookie Michael Matthews.
Monday evening update:
QUOTE
Giants placed TE Jeremy Shockey on injured reserve, ending his season.
He'll have surgery for a fractured fibula with ankle damage late this week. Shockey has a history of ankle issues, so that area of the injury may be of most long-term concern. The six-year vet finished 2007 with 57 catches for 619 yards and three TDs. He hasn't played a full 16-game season since entering the NFL.
He'll have surgery for a fractured fibula with ankle damage late this week. Shockey has a history of ankle issues, so that area of the injury may be of most long-term concern. The six-year vet finished 2007 with 57 catches for 619 yards and three TDs. He hasn't played a full 16-game season since entering the NFL.
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 16 2007, 10:26 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Love Westbrook. Right around our league trade deadline I was out of playoff contention. I put up a post on the league board to let the other owners know he was available for the right price (moreso because I just wanted to see what he might be worth.) I didn't get any offers remotely close to what I thought his value might be, and after seeing him continue to dominate week after week, I'm glad I didn't get any tempting offers. The guy is absolute gold in PPRs, and I think he's a top 3-4 dynasty back at this point, depending on where people view him vs. Jackson.
Top 3-4? I posted a couple of pages back that I wouldn't trade him for Tomlinson straight up at this point. My league isn't PPR, but it is yardage-heavy (a TD is worth the same as 30 yards instead of 60 yards, effectively doubling the worth of yards), and Westbrook is so unbelievably money in that format. Only twice all season has he put up fewer than 100 total yards, and in both instances it was a "paltry" 92 yards (18.4 points for me). If you go back to last year, there were only two games he failed to crack 100 then, too (86 and 75 yards in those two games). He's finished in the top 2 in PPG for both of the last two seasons, and he's missed very little real time with injury (despite all the scares or worries). That sort of consistency is absurdly valuable to me. I'd rank him as the #2 in PPR leagues, too, behind only Peterson.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 12:19 AM)
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 16 2007, 10:26 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Love Westbrook. Right around our league trade deadline I was out of playoff contention. I put up a post on the league board to let the other owners know he was available for the right price (moreso because I just wanted to see what he might be worth.) I didn't get any offers remotely close to what I thought his value might be, and after seeing him continue to dominate week after week, I'm glad I didn't get any tempting offers. The guy is absolute gold in PPRs, and I think he's a top 3-4 dynasty back at this point, depending on where people view him vs. Jackson.
Top 3-4? I posted a couple of pages back that I wouldn't trade him for Tomlinson straight up at this point. My league isn't PPR, but it is yardage-heavy (a TD is worth the same as 30 yards instead of 60 yards, effectively doubling the worth of yards), and Westbrook is so unbelievably money in that format. Only twice all season has he put up fewer than 100 total yards, and in both instances it was a "paltry" 92 yards (18.4 points for me). If you go back to last year, there were only two games he failed to crack 100 then, too (86 and 75 yards in those two games). He's finished in the top 2 in PPG for both of the last two seasons, and he's missed very little real time with injury (despite all the scares or worries). That sort of consistency is absurdly valuable to me. I'd rank him as the #2 in PPR leagues, too, behind only Peterson.
He's ridiculously consistent in the yardage department, that's for sure. I think he's still a touch more valuable to his owners than to onlookers because the owners are reaping the rewards he brings while everybody else sits there, watching him tear up the league, waiting for him to fall apart. Well, he's been pretty healthy the last 2 years, and not so coincidentally, he's probably RB 1-3 in most leagues the last 2 seasons. I'd say he's in the 3-4 overall because I don't think, if an initial dynasty draft were held today, he'd be drafted before AP, or LT, while Jackson is debatable. I own him, and the only player I'd probably trade him straight up for is Peterson. I love Tomlinson but the guys got quite a bit of mileage and at this point in time, I think I see Westbrook being productive a little bit longer than LT. But with that said, I don't think the Tomlinson owner would trade him straight up for Westbrook either.
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 17 2007, 01:01 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 12:19 AM)
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 16 2007, 10:26 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Love Westbrook. Right around our league trade deadline I was out of playoff contention. I put up a post on the league board to let the other owners know he was available for the right price (moreso because I just wanted to see what he might be worth.) I didn't get any offers remotely close to what I thought his value might be, and after seeing him continue to dominate week after week, I'm glad I didn't get any tempting offers. The guy is absolute gold in PPRs, and I think he's a top 3-4 dynasty back at this point, depending on where people view him vs. Jackson.
Top 3-4? I posted a couple of pages back that I wouldn't trade him for Tomlinson straight up at this point. My league isn't PPR, but it is yardage-heavy (a TD is worth the same as 30 yards instead of 60 yards, effectively doubling the worth of yards), and Westbrook is so unbelievably money in that format. Only twice all season has he put up fewer than 100 total yards, and in both instances it was a "paltry" 92 yards (18.4 points for me). If you go back to last year, there were only two games he failed to crack 100 then, too (86 and 75 yards in those two games). He's finished in the top 2 in PPG for both of the last two seasons, and he's missed very little real time with injury (despite all the scares or worries). That sort of consistency is absurdly valuable to me. I'd rank him as the #2 in PPR leagues, too, behind only Peterson.
He's ridiculously consistent in the yardage department, that's for sure. I think he's still a touch more valuable to his owners than to onlookers because the owners are reaping the rewards he brings while everybody else sits there, watching him tear up the league, waiting for him to fall apart. Well, he's been pretty healthy the last 2 years, and not so coincidentally, he's probably RB 1-3 in most leagues the last 2 seasons. I'd say he's in the 3-4 overall because I don't think, if an initial dynasty draft were held today, he'd be drafted before AP, or LT, while Jackson is debatable. I own him, and the only player I'd probably trade him straight up for is Peterson. I love Tomlinson but the guys got quite a bit of mileage and at this point in time, I think I see Westbrook being productive a little bit longer than LT. But with that said, I don't think the Tomlinson owner would trade him straight up for Westbrook either.
All of which may be true, but I own Westbrook and would trade him for Tomlinson in a heartbeat. Steven Jackson is my other RB, and I'd trade him for Tomlinson too.
Who saw Troy Smith late in the Ravens/Dolphins game?
According to the Sporting News' Mike Florio, Smith showed some real promise:
According to the Sporting News' Mike Florio, Smith showed some real promise:
QUOTE
Ray of hope for Ravens?
If there's anything positive to be gleaned from the Baltimore Ravens' eighth straight loss, which put the fans of the previously 0-13 Fins out of their collective misery, it's that the team that has been searching for a quarterback ever since Brian Billick became its head coach might finally have found one.
And he's 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith.
Although it would be wise not to get too carried away, Smith did everything he could to deliver a victory after replacing Kyle Boller, who suffered a concussion late in the game. If not for Matt Stover's missed 44-yard field goal try in overtime, the Dolphins would be 0-14.
Smith was poised, confident, decisive, elusive. The potential he flashed could be enough to persuade owner Steve Bisciotti to give Billick another year or two.
Then again, the Ravens lost to ... the ... Dolphins. So maybe Baltimore's next coach can work with Smith.
If there's anything positive to be gleaned from the Baltimore Ravens' eighth straight loss, which put the fans of the previously 0-13 Fins out of their collective misery, it's that the team that has been searching for a quarterback ever since Brian Billick became its head coach might finally have found one.
And he's 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith.
Although it would be wise not to get too carried away, Smith did everything he could to deliver a victory after replacing Kyle Boller, who suffered a concussion late in the game. If not for Matt Stover's missed 44-yard field goal try in overtime, the Dolphins would be 0-14.
Smith was poised, confident, decisive, elusive. The potential he flashed could be enough to persuade owner Steve Bisciotti to give Billick another year or two.
Then again, the Ravens lost to ... the ... Dolphins. So maybe Baltimore's next coach can work with Smith.
You're really splitting hairs when you get into the top 3-4 RBs. Tomlinson, Westbrook, Jackson, and Peterson are all great players who are going to make great plays and help you win games. The key towards winning in a dynasty isn't necessarily figuring out which of those guys is better, but rather finding a way to get that caliber of player on your team.
My favorite thing in a dynasty is trying to identify which guys are going to rise in value and trying to add them to my squad. I think part of the reason the rookie draft is fun is because you're dealing in unknowns and you really have a chance to separate yourself from your competition if you can consistently make smart picks.
My favorite thing in a dynasty is trying to identify which guys are going to rise in value and trying to add them to my squad. I think part of the reason the rookie draft is fun is because you're dealing in unknowns and you really have a chance to separate yourself from your competition if you can consistently make smart picks.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 01:25 AM)
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 17 2007, 01:01 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 12:19 AM)
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 16 2007, 10:26 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 16 2007, 09:20 PM)
Also, it has been far too many pages since I have professed my man-love for Brian Westbrook. Tomlinson better step up his game if he wants to hold on to those "best RB in the league" and "most complete RB in the league" titles.
Love Westbrook. Right around our league trade deadline I was out of playoff contention. I put up a post on the league board to let the other owners know he was available for the right price (moreso because I just wanted to see what he might be worth.) I didn't get any offers remotely close to what I thought his value might be, and after seeing him continue to dominate week after week, I'm glad I didn't get any tempting offers. The guy is absolute gold in PPRs, and I think he's a top 3-4 dynasty back at this point, depending on where people view him vs. Jackson.
Top 3-4? I posted a couple of pages back that I wouldn't trade him for Tomlinson straight up at this point. My league isn't PPR, but it is yardage-heavy (a TD is worth the same as 30 yards instead of 60 yards, effectively doubling the worth of yards), and Westbrook is so unbelievably money in that format. Only twice all season has he put up fewer than 100 total yards, and in both instances it was a "paltry" 92 yards (18.4 points for me). If you go back to last year, there were only two games he failed to crack 100 then, too (86 and 75 yards in those two games). He's finished in the top 2 in PPG for both of the last two seasons, and he's missed very little real time with injury (despite all the scares or worries). That sort of consistency is absurdly valuable to me. I'd rank him as the #2 in PPR leagues, too, behind only Peterson.
He's ridiculously consistent in the yardage department, that's for sure. I think he's still a touch more valuable to his owners than to onlookers because the owners are reaping the rewards he brings while everybody else sits there, watching him tear up the league, waiting for him to fall apart. Well, he's been pretty healthy the last 2 years, and not so coincidentally, he's probably RB 1-3 in most leagues the last 2 seasons. I'd say he's in the 3-4 overall because I don't think, if an initial dynasty draft were held today, he'd be drafted before AP, or LT, while Jackson is debatable. I own him, and the only player I'd probably trade him straight up for is Peterson. I love Tomlinson but the guys got quite a bit of mileage and at this point in time, I think I see Westbrook being productive a little bit longer than LT. But with that said, I don't think the Tomlinson owner would trade him straight up for Westbrook either.
All of which may be true, but I own Westbrook and would trade him for Tomlinson in a heartbeat. Steven Jackson is my other RB, and I'd trade him for Tomlinson too.
I've got the same combo - yet still finished 4-9
Oh well, that top 3 rookie pick will go along nice with Westbrook and Jackson.
Is there any chance that with a continued strong finish, Anthony Gonzalez might be approaching Calvin Johnson's value given the players' respective situations?
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Dec 17 2007, 02:06 AM)
Is there any chance that with a continued strong finish, Anthony Gonzalez might be approaching Calvin Johnson's value given the players' respective situations?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 01:25 AM)
All of which may be true, but I own Westbrook and would trade him for Tomlinson in a heartbeat. Steven Jackson is my other RB, and I'd trade him for Tomlinson too.
Standard scoring, PPR, or yardage-heavy?
Standard scoring, I think Tomlinson's a hair better, but I'd still keep Westbrook because he's one of "my guys" and I just love owning and rooting for "my guys". Yardage-heavy or PPR, though, and I think the shoe's on the other foot.
I do agree with EBF that at that level you're just splitting hairs, though, and the true difference maker isn't correctly pegging the rankings within the tiers, it's correctly identifying the breaks between the tiers. I don't think my team would be appreciably different whether I had Westy or Tomlinson.
I was just curious how many years down the road you other dynasty owners look. I do not look no more than 3 years. Just to much change in the NFL to look any longer.
Gregg Rosenthal on Joseph Addai:
I knew I never should have moved him ahead of Frank Gore.
at myself for being so easily dissuaded.
A short Rosenthal blurb on Shaun Alexander:
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
Peter King on Vince Young and the Titans WRs:
I realize it can't be considered a positive to have Peter King backing up your opinions, but it's all I got right now
.
QUOTE
The Raiders habitually make runners like Kolby Smith look like All Pros. But their sagging rush defense managed to make Joseph Addai look like Ron Carthon, holding him to 44 rushing yards. Addai hasn't topped 75 rushing yards since Week 9, and now the Colts may begin to rest him for the playoffs. The Colts are the only team I'd worry about resting guys during Week 16.
I knew I never should have moved him ahead of Frank Gore.
at myself for being so easily dissuaded.A short Rosenthal blurb on Shaun Alexander:
QUOTE
Shaun Alexander hasn't averaged over four yards-per-carry in a game since Week 3. There's a chance he won't even find a job next season.
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
Peter King on Vince Young and the Titans WRs:
QUOTE
The Titans better draft a receiver in the first round this year if they want Vince Young to realize his potential. Too many drops, not enough separation from corners.
I realize it can't be considered a positive to have Peter King backing up your opinions, but it's all I got right now
. QUOTE (fsufan @ Dec 17 2007, 08:22 AM)
I was just curious how many years down the road you other dynasty owners look. I do not look no more than 3 years. Just to much change in the NFL to look any longer.
Depends on the position. For RBs, anything more than 3 years is pointless, but for a good QB, barring injury, you can pencil in upwards of 8 to 10 years. For instance, the reason a guy like Roethlisberger is so valuable is because I'm almost certain my league will fold before I'm no longer able to start him (barring injury, of course). Once a guy proves a certain level of talent over multiple years, you can pretty much just expect him to keep on keeping on. His year-by-year production might change with system and supporting cast, but he's going to be starting for the same franchise for the rest of his career. As of right now, I'd say that these "Franchise QBs" are Brady and Manning (although obviously you aren't going to get 10 years out of them, but 6 is fully reasonable), Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger, with Cutler and Romo both being poised to make the jump (obviously Romo is closer than Cutler, but I'd like to see him start out hot next season, too, before I move him into that "no-brainer 10-year starter" category). After that you've got the dynasty guys who are more than good enough to win with, but for one reason or another I don't feel comfortable projecting more than 3-4 years in advance (Bulger, Hass, Brees, Favre, McNabb).
WR and TE are other positions that you can feel free to project out until forever. If you look at the career arcs of the true uberstud TEs (Winslow Sr., Newsome, Sharpe, Gonzo, etc), you'll see consistent and sustained production for almost a decade. As a result, I have no problem projecting Gates to be a stud for another 6 years or more (but he's the only one- no offense to Witten, who is having a great season, but he's no Gates/Gonzo/Sharpe). Likewise, if you have a proven stud at WR, you can count on him remaining a stud until midway through his 30s, or until he suffers a major injury, whichever comes first. I'm pretty confident that, barring injury, Fitzgerald has another 8 years as a strong startable WR left in him, at least.
This can often result in a lot of dilemmas. For instance, how much is an 8-year WR like Fitzgerald worth compared to a 3-year WR like Moss? Or how much is a 12-year QB like Roethlisberger worth compared to a 3-year RB like Westbrook? One method I like to use in situations like that is a "Three Years + Exit Value" projection. I project how they'll do over the 3 years, and I also project how much they'll be worth 3 years from now, and I combine the two projections to get a current value. For instance, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss have virtually identical PPG values so far this season. If I project that they're going to score exactly the same number of points over the next 3 years, too, which is more valuable? Obviously, in this case, it's Andre Johnson. Both will produce the same on the field, but AJ's "exit value" will be so much higher after that 3 year span because he'll be 30 while Moss will be 35. To give an example, I could use Randy Moss and then after 3 years be left with nothing (as he's worn out all his value), or I could use Andre Johnson and after 3 years trade him for something else, essentially giving me Randy Moss and a free player (whatever I got in return for Johnson).
Anyway, Big Ben won't produce on the field like a stud RB, obviously, but his exit value 3 years from now will be pretty much identical to his value right now. As a result, his 3-year production + exit value might be worth a stud at another position.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 12:49 PM)
A short Rosenthal blurb on Shaun Alexander:
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
QUOTE
Shaun Alexander hasn't averaged over four yards-per-carry in a game since Week 3. There's a chance he won't even find a job next season.
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
Anyone who doesn't think getting a lot of carries in the NFL wears an RB down in future seasons hasn't been watching Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson the past couple of years (or Ricky Williams the years before that). Shaun Alexander is very clearly not the same back he once was. Now, he was never as good as he looked in the year when he set the TD record- I don't know if he was ever at any point in his career one of the three most talented backs in the league, fantasy success notwithstanding- but at the same time, he used to at the very least be better than Maurice Morris.
Shaun Alexander year-by-year ypcs, excluding his rookie year (4.9 ypc, but only 64 carries): 4.3, 4.0, 4.4, 4.8, 5.1, 3.6, 3.3. See if you can guess which season it was that he got 430 carries in.
Edit: for those who would rather blame Alexander's sudden fall off the face of the planet on the loss of Hutchinson, here are Morris's year-by-year ypc breakdowns. See if you can pinpoint where it was that he lost Hutch: 4.8, 6.3, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 4.4.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 03:08 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 12:49 PM)
A short Rosenthal blurb on Shaun Alexander:
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
QUOTE
Shaun Alexander hasn't averaged over four yards-per-carry in a game since Week 3. There's a chance he won't even find a job next season.
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
Anyone who doesn't think getting a lot of carries in the NFL wears an RB down in future seasons hasn't been watching Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson the past couple of years (or Ricky Williams the years before that). Shaun Alexander is very clearly not the same back he once was. Now, he was never as good as he looked in the year when he set the TD record- I don't know if he was ever at any point in his career one of the three most talented backs in the league, fantasy success notwithstanding- but at the same time, he used to at the very least be better than Maurice Morris.
Shaun Alexander year-by-year ypcs, excluding his rookie year (4.9 ypc, but only 64 carries): 4.3, 4.0, 4.4, 4.8, 5.1, 3.6, 3.3. See if you can guess which season it was that he got 430 carries in.
Edit: for those who would rather blame Alexander's sudden fall off the face of the planet on the loss of Hutchinson, here are Morris's year-by-year ypc breakdowns. See if you can pinpoint where it was that he lost Hutch: 4.8, 6.3, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 4.4.
Not quite sure why you threw LJ in there. IMO LJ's dropoff over the past season are due to an imploding o-line, horrendous QB play and a big drop down in coaching/staff than they are due to a season and a half of a lot of carries. If nothing changed from prior years then I could accept the theory but everything has changed and all for the worse.
(I've seen the footballoutsiders stuff)
QUOTE (Banger @ Dec 17 2007, 02:24 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 03:08 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 12:49 PM)
A short Rosenthal blurb on Shaun Alexander:
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
QUOTE
Shaun Alexander hasn't averaged over four yards-per-carry in a game since Week 3. There's a chance he won't even find a job next season.
Not surprising in the least, but it always helps to see someone else put down in writing exactly what you were thinking.
Anyone who doesn't think getting a lot of carries in the NFL wears an RB down in future seasons hasn't been watching Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson the past couple of years (or Ricky Williams the years before that). Shaun Alexander is very clearly not the same back he once was. Now, he was never as good as he looked in the year when he set the TD record- I don't know if he was ever at any point in his career one of the three most talented backs in the league, fantasy success notwithstanding- but at the same time, he used to at the very least be better than Maurice Morris.
Shaun Alexander year-by-year ypcs, excluding his rookie year (4.9 ypc, but only 64 carries): 4.3, 4.0, 4.4, 4.8, 5.1, 3.6, 3.3. See if you can guess which season it was that he got 430 carries in.
Edit: for those who would rather blame Alexander's sudden fall off the face of the planet on the loss of Hutchinson, here are Morris's year-by-year ypc breakdowns. See if you can pinpoint where it was that he lost Hutch: 4.8, 6.3, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 4.4.
Not quite sure why you threw LJ in there. IMO LJ's dropoff over the past season are due to an imploding o-line, horrendous QB play and a big drop down in coaching/staff than they are due to a season and a half of a lot of carries. If nothing changed from prior years then I could accept the theory but everything has changed and all for the worse.
(I've seen the footballoutsiders stuff)
I threw LJ in there because he just doesn't look like the same RB to me. I know that he's had a lot of things going against him over the past two years, but even just watching him play, he doesn't look like the same RB to me. In his huge season, he looked like one of the best RBs in the league. Now that his team is bad around him, instead of still looking like one of the best RBs in the league (albeit on a bad team, a la Tomlinson in his youth), he looks like just another guy. Throw out the stats if you want, I just don't think he's the same RB anymore.
Stecker has done a fine job, but I look for Pierre Thomas to possibly be one of the surprise players of '08. If things fall right, this kid could really produce.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 17 2007, 01:55 AM)
Who saw Troy Smith late in the Ravens/Dolphins game?
According to the Sporting News' Mike Florio, Smith showed some real promise:
According to the Sporting News' Mike Florio, Smith showed some real promise:
QUOTE
Ray of hope for Ravens?
If there's anything positive to be gleaned from the Baltimore Ravens' eighth straight loss, which put the fans of the previously 0-13 Fins out of their collective misery, it's that the team that has been searching for a quarterback ever since Brian Billick became its head coach might finally have found one.
And he's 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith.
Although it would be wise not to get too carried away, Smith did everything he could to deliver a victory after replacing Kyle Boller, who suffered a concussion late in the game. If not for Matt Stover's missed 44-yard field goal try in overtime, the Dolphins would be 0-14.
Smith was poised, confident, decisive, elusive. The potential he flashed could be enough to persuade owner Steve Bisciotti to give Billick another year or two.
Then again, the Ravens lost to ... the ... Dolphins. So maybe Baltimore's next coach can work with Smith.
If there's anything positive to be gleaned from the Baltimore Ravens' eighth straight loss, which put the fans of the previously 0-13 Fins out of their collective misery, it's that the team that has been searching for a quarterback ever since Brian Billick became its head coach might finally have found one.
And he's 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith.
Although it would be wise not to get too carried away, Smith did everything he could to deliver a victory after replacing Kyle Boller, who suffered a concussion late in the game. If not for Matt Stover's missed 44-yard field goal try in overtime, the Dolphins would be 0-14.
Smith was poised, confident, decisive, elusive. The potential he flashed could be enough to persuade owner Steve Bisciotti to give Billick another year or two.
Then again, the Ravens lost to ... the ... Dolphins. So maybe Baltimore's next coach can work with Smith.
I watched the game and agree with Florio's assessment bolded above. Smith locked on to Mark Clayton, who had only one target with Boller in the game, but had five on Troy's two series. We'd be hearing a lot more noise about him today if Billick had let him try to get the team in the end zone at the end of the fourth quarter. I'd be mighty baffled if Billick didn't give him the reigns for the next two weeks (although Billick is a pretty baffling guy), considering how easy it would be to blame the move on Boller's concussion. We should get a glimpse of his potential in Weeks 16 and 17.
Love the rankings, the conversations but it's some tough sledding. I'm in a keep 3 (one must be under 25 as of Super Bowl,) 12 team PPR and am kind of torn over who to keep. Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex, TE, K and Dflex.
Right now I've got guys in three layers
GUYS I'LL PROBABLY KEEP
Marion Barber III (under 25)
Randy Moss
Willis McGahee
GUYS I MIGHT KEEP, I'D LIKE TO, BUT PROBABLY CAN'T
Chad Johnson
Antonio Gates
BACK TO THE LOCH, NESSIE
Marvin Harrison
Matt Hasselbeck
I think McGahee is the smartest move as far as the third keeper since we have to start 2 RBs. Gates is so important in must start TE PPR, was so dominant to start the season, but he's had a tough year since Chris Chambers got there and they made the offense a little too complex for old Philly boy (IMHO). And he (and MBIII admittedly) killed me in my semi-final this weekend when I only needed average weeks from them. Seeing other teams it looks like guys like Winslow, Witten and TGon will still be available too. Ocho is just all over the place but if he has new surroundings next year I may be more excited to keep him. Him and Gates are flashy but my first pick isn't until 2-1 when there might not be any great backs left.
It's a long, long way away until we have to declare our final three (like until a week before next year's draft in August.) But I was wondering how people in this thread felt about these players going forward. Specifically MBIII, Moss, McGahee (who I think has reached his ceiling,) Gates and Ocho. Only keeping three as opposed to four like last year, I'd like to trade some guys as our league has quit a bit of off-season trading but may have a hard time doing so since everyone can only keep three.
Right now I've got guys in three layers
GUYS I'LL PROBABLY KEEP
Marion Barber III (under 25)
Randy Moss
Willis McGahee
GUYS I MIGHT KEEP, I'D LIKE TO, BUT PROBABLY CAN'T
Chad Johnson
Antonio Gates
BACK TO THE LOCH, NESSIE
Marvin Harrison
Matt Hasselbeck
I think McGahee is the smartest move as far as the third keeper since we have to start 2 RBs. Gates is so important in must start TE PPR, was so dominant to start the season, but he's had a tough year since Chris Chambers got there and they made the offense a little too complex for old Philly boy (IMHO). And he (and MBIII admittedly) killed me in my semi-final this weekend when I only needed average weeks from them. Seeing other teams it looks like guys like Winslow, Witten and TGon will still be available too. Ocho is just all over the place but if he has new surroundings next year I may be more excited to keep him. Him and Gates are flashy but my first pick isn't until 2-1 when there might not be any great backs left.
It's a long, long way away until we have to declare our final three (like until a week before next year's draft in August.) But I was wondering how people in this thread felt about these players going forward. Specifically MBIII, Moss, McGahee (who I think has reached his ceiling,) Gates and Ocho. Only keeping three as opposed to four like last year, I'd like to trade some guys as our league has quit a bit of off-season trading but may have a hard time doing so since everyone can only keep three.
Interesting dynasty related info out of San Francisco:
QUOTE
Rookie Jason Hill will be the 49ers' No. 3 receiver in the last two weeks.
He's passed Ashley Lelie on the depth chart for the moment. Hill acted as San Francisco's third receiver Thursday night, but didn't catch a pass.
He's passed Ashley Lelie on the depth chart for the moment. Hill acted as San Francisco's third receiver Thursday night, but didn't catch a pass.
QUOTE
49ers coach Mike Nolan says talks about a contract extension with Shaun Hill are ongoing.
Nolan says the Niners tried to get something on the books with Hill earlier in the year, but the quarterback smartly chose to wait until closer to the end of the season. He's still only likely to get a backup-caliber deal.
Nolan says the Niners tried to get something on the books with Hill earlier in the year, but the quarterback smartly chose to wait until closer to the end of the season. He's still only likely to get a backup-caliber deal.
F & L
Who would you be targeting right now as a good buy low ( a guy this year who is way under performing)
a few 6 or 7 pages ago you were talking about having guys that are playing at a top 25 level but could be playing at a top 10 level.
I would like to hear some names and thoughts you or any other guys might have.
A month ago you said Santana Moss was a good buy low do you still think so?
I read nearly every post in this Thread, and Love it. Tons of great insight and explanations.
One last question, this last year was our initial draft for our dynasty league. In the late rounds I drafted Micheal Bush and Kenny Irons. I noticed you had both these guys ranked somewhat high, so you must like them. What are your thoughts on Bush and Irons. What type of break away speed does these guys have?
Who would you be targeting right now as a good buy low ( a guy this year who is way under performing)
a few 6 or 7 pages ago you were talking about having guys that are playing at a top 25 level but could be playing at a top 10 level.
I would like to hear some names and thoughts you or any other guys might have.
A month ago you said Santana Moss was a good buy low do you still think so?
I read nearly every post in this Thread, and Love it. Tons of great insight and explanations.
One last question, this last year was our initial draft for our dynasty league. In the late rounds I drafted Micheal Bush and Kenny Irons. I noticed you had both these guys ranked somewhat high, so you must like them. What are your thoughts on Bush and Irons. What type of break away speed does these guys have?
QUOTE (fsufan @ Dec 17 2007, 08:22 AM)
I was just curious how many years down the road you other dynasty owners look. I do not look no more than 3 years. Just to much change in the NFL to look any longer.
I would agree 3 year is about the max I look at.
F&L,
Great list! I was just wondering why you are updating the list every week......When I look at Dynasty one bad week or one good week really have little effect on my dynasty rankings. Example would be a player like K.Jones. Looks like you have him dropping in your rankings. He go no carries last week so had no productions....where as last week he got the carries and got the production. He did not move up or down in my rankings based on either of the last two weeks. What would however effect an upward or downward move in my rankings would be if there were a coaching change in Det. or if Jones was traded.
Again great list. Thanks for taking the time to put it together....It really helps me put my rankings in perspective
Great list! I was just wondering why you are updating the list every week......When I look at Dynasty one bad week or one good week really have little effect on my dynasty rankings. Example would be a player like K.Jones. Looks like you have him dropping in your rankings. He go no carries last week so had no productions....where as last week he got the carries and got the production. He did not move up or down in my rankings based on either of the last two weeks. What would however effect an upward or downward move in my rankings would be if there were a coaching change in Det. or if Jones was traded.
Again great list. Thanks for taking the time to put it together....It really helps me put my rankings in perspective
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 17 2007, 02:03 PM)
QUOTE (fsufan @ Dec 17 2007, 08:22 AM)
I was just curious how many years down the road you other dynasty owners look. I do not look no more than 3 years. Just to much change in the NFL to look any longer.
Depends on the position. For RBs, anything more than 3 years is pointless, but for a good QB, barring injury, you can pencil in upwards of 8 to 10 years. For instance, the reason a guy like Roethlisberger is so valuable is because I'm almost certain my league will fold before I'm no longer able to start him (barring injury, of course). Once a guy proves a certain level of talent over multiple years, you can pretty much just expect him to keep on keeping on. His year-by-year production might change with system and supporting cast, but he's going to be starting for the same franchise for the rest of his career. As of right now, I'd say that these "Franchise QBs" are Brady and Manning (although obviously you aren't going to get 10 years out of them, but 6 is fully reasonable), Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger, with Cutler and Romo both being poised to make the jump (obviously Romo is closer than Cutler, but I'd like to see him start out hot next season, too, before I move him into that "no-brainer 10-year starter" category). After that you've got the dynasty guys who are more than good enough to win with, but for one reason or another I don't feel comfortable projecting more than 3-4 years in advance (Bulger, Hass, Brees, Favre, McNabb).
WR and TE are other positions that you can feel free to project out until forever. If you look at the career arcs of the true uberstud TEs (Winslow Sr., Newsome, Sharpe, Gonzo, etc), you'll see consistent and sustained production for almost a decade. As a result, I have no problem projecting Gates to be a stud for another 6 years or more (but he's the only one- no offense to Witten, who is having a great season, but he's no Gates/Gonzo/Sharpe). Likewise, if you have a proven stud at WR, you can count on him remaining a stud until midway through his 30s, or until he suffers a major injury, whichever comes first. I'm pretty confident that, barring injury, Fitzgerald has another 8 years as a strong startable WR left in him, at least.
This can often result in a lot of dilemmas. For instance, how much is an 8-year WR like Fitzgerald worth compared to a 3-year WR like Moss? Or how much is a 12-year QB like Roethlisberger worth compared to a 3-year RB like Westbrook? One method I like to use in situations like that is a "Three Years + Exit Value" projection. I project how they'll do over the 3 years, and I also project how much they'll be worth 3 years from now, and I combine the two projections to get a current value. For instance, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss have virtually identical PPG values so far this season. If I project that they're going to score exactly the same number of points over the next 3 years, too, which is more valuable? Obviously, in this case, it's Andre Johnson. Both will produce the same on the field, but AJ's "exit value" will be so much higher after that 3 year span because he'll be 30 while Moss will be 35. To give an example, I could use Randy Moss and then after 3 years be left with nothing (as he's worn out all his value), or I could use Andre Johnson and after 3 years trade him for something else, essentially giving me Randy Moss and a free player (whatever I got in return for Johnson).
Anyway, Big Ben won't produce on the field like a stud RB, obviously, but his exit value 3 years from now will be pretty much identical to his value right now. As a result, his 3-year production + exit value might be worth a stud at another position.
this thread rocks because of stuff lke this.
great way to put in perspective a players value.
QUOTE (Yitbos69 @ Dec 18 2007, 10:53 AM)
F&L,
Great list! I was just wondering why you are updating the list every week......When I look at Dynasty one bad week or one good week really have little effect on my dynasty rankings. Example would be a player like K.Jones. Looks like you have him dropping in your rankings. He go no carries last week so had no productions....where as last week he got the carries and got the production. He did not move up or down in my rankings based on either of the last two weeks. What would however effect an upward or downward move in my rankings would be if there were a coaching change in Det. or if Jones was traded.
Again great list. Thanks for taking the time to put it together....It really helps me put my rankings in perspective
Great list! I was just wondering why you are updating the list every week......When I look at Dynasty one bad week or one good week really have little effect on my dynasty rankings. Example would be a player like K.Jones. Looks like you have him dropping in your rankings. He go no carries last week so had no productions....where as last week he got the carries and got the production. He did not move up or down in my rankings based on either of the last two weeks. What would however effect an upward or downward move in my rankings would be if there were a coaching change in Det. or if Jones was traded.
Again great list. Thanks for taking the time to put it together....It really helps me put my rankings in perspective
Thanks, Yitbos. Here's an exchange from November of last year where stevegamer basically asked the same question about dynasty value changing from week-to-week.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 07:04 PM)
QUOTE (stevegamer @ Nov 1 2006, 06:47 PM)
Do you guys really think dynasty value changes that much week-to-week on so many players? Other than the Bells, I don't see a ton of change this week at RB in those players listed.
I'm beginning to realize that you guys are going to have to throw me a bone on a couple of factors in these rankings. I was under the impression that many dynasty leagues use the NFL playoffs as their league's playoffs. It appears that I was wrong on that one. In playoff leagues, even dynasty values can fluctuate from week to week because of the strategy involved...not nearly to the extent of redraft leagues of course.
I do these rankings as much for my own teams' sake as anything. If I'm flipping rosters around in my head Sunday evening / Monday morning trying to figure out a move that could help me this week or down the road, I'm going to come across players on whom I'm souring or players I'm now targeting.
Putting this info down here is just a way to sort through the chaos of a long season. My rankings may change from week to week (though I don't see this "Dynasty Rising/Falling" as an every week project), but that doesn't mean anybody else's should.
And a couple of weeks later...
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 10:02 AM)
As someone pointed out earlier, it's tough to re-rank dynasty players on a weekly basis. You don't want one week's impressive play or disappointments to skew the value of the actual talent. However, as I've explained earlier, I'm going to revise these values weekly for my own benefit as it's one of the byproducts of participating in a playoff league. Just because I've dropped Eli Manning, that doesn't mean you should think less of him (I just happen to think he's as overrated as any player in the NFL). This is just a weekly gauge of where I stand on these players.
I think the same reasoning still applies for me, but by now the thread has basically taken on a life of its own. Part of it is that at this point I think I'm sort of expected to have it updated. The other part is that I know a lot of regular readers keep a watch out for where "their guys" are ranked, and they enjoy the give-and-take after a big week by one of their guys or a slow stretch by anyone else who is not one of their guys (please see ensuing posts for examples). In order to keep the noise level down to a low roar, staying ahead of the curve is a necessity.
I guess the bottom line is that while I agree that dynasty values are a lot less subject to the weekly whims of a 16-game NFL season, change does happen awfully fast in this league and dynasty owners have to stay on top of that change.
QUOTE (BusMan @ Dec 17 2007, 03:08 PM)
I watched the game and agree with Florio's assessment bolded above. Smith locked on to Mark Clayton, who had only one target with Boller in the game, but had five on Troy's two series. We'd be hearing a lot more noise about him today if Billick had let him try to get the team in the end zone at the end of the fourth quarter. I'd be mighty baffled if Billick didn't give him the reigns for the next two weeks (although Billick is a pretty baffling guy), considering how easy it would be to blame the move on Boller's concussion. We should get a glimpse of his potential in Weeks 16 and 17.
Thanks, Busman.
That was my inclination as well, but it's nice to hear from somebody who watched the game. FWIW, Billick's latest statements indicate that Boller will remain the starter this weekend.
at what point do you move Colston into tier1. Hes been one of the most dominant wrs in ff since week 8, and is proving that last year was no fluke
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 18 2007, 11:52 AM)
QUOTE (BusMan @ Dec 17 2007, 03:08 PM)
I watched the game and agree with Florio's assessment bolded above. Smith locked on to Mark Clayton, who had only one target with Boller in the game, but had five on Troy's two series. We'd be hearing a lot more noise about him today if Billick had let him try to get the team in the end zone at the end of the fourth quarter. I'd be mighty baffled if Billick didn't give him the reigns for the next two weeks (although Billick is a pretty baffling guy), considering how easy it would be to blame the move on Boller's concussion. We should get a glimpse of his potential in Weeks 16 and 17.
Thanks, Busman.
That was my inclination as well, but it's nice to hear from somebody who watched the game. FWIW, Billick's latest statements indicate that Boller will remain the starter this weekend.
There are a few of ways to analyze this non-move by Billick:
1) The depth chart is already settled. With Boller already signed through 2008 and the Ravens playing for nothing but pride, there isn't any particular reason to give his confidence a hit by benching him for Smith, provided he is healthy.
2) Billick doesn't want to expose Smith. I don't buy this argument, but I heard it espoused by some on Sirius NFL Radio this morning. Perhaps Smith has some practice or mental issues the public at large doesn't know about?
3) Either way, I believe Baltimore will have an open competition for the job in the 2008 training camp. Depending on whether they cut McNair (or he retires) and if they bring in any QBs via FA and/or the draft, the job could go any number of ways. Given that we know what Boller's body of work to date is, I suspect he'll be the starter until Smith outplays him in TC/preseason. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Smith was their opening day starter next year.
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