On 85, I think he is a hold right now unless you can get close in value. As was mentioned earlier, his name may get you that trade, unless your league thinks the same way. At this moment, I wouldn't take low value for him, but I may by the end of the offseason.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 23 2007, 10:53 PM) 
My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.
SSOG, I really like this "rule of thumb" strategy for QBs combined with some other statistics like YPA & TD:INT ratio. Do you have similar takes on evaluating RBs & WRs?
QUOTE (FavreCo @ Dec 25 2007, 07:00 PM)
QUOTE (jonboltz @ Dec 25 2007, 06:10 PM)
Based on your previous evaluations of QBs, this might be reason alone to bump TJ up a few spots.
Go ahead and don't forget to tell us how this hack will dominate.
I pick QB's based on their ability to throw 25+ TD's. Let me know how this bum is going to do that.
Now remind me as to what QB I previously said was a hack and has passed 25+ TD's. Thanks. Didn't think there was one. On top of that, he needs to consistently rack up yardage too. Now who was it again that I said sucked and has since been able to do EITHER of those?
You were very vocal in your thoughts about how awful a decision it was by JDR to start Garrard.... How Garrard was an awful QB and had failed once to be a starter and wouldn't amount to anything. As of a few weeks ago, you still hadn't backed down from that despite his strong year. Now you state that 25 TDs is your barometer for "sucking"...please.
Please reread my initial post and find out where I stated that TJ would "dominate". I merely felt that he would be better ranked with two guys that have never thrown an NFL pass and a rookie with 3 truly awful games in a row. I'm sure Viking fans that have seen him more would be able to make a better observation, but it appears his 2nd half of this year was a big jump from how he had been playing -- he's still a guy with less than a full year of starts under his belt and I think is ranked *a little* bit low.
QUOTE (jonboltz @ Dec 25 2007, 09:11 AM)
Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris Jackson
I think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.
Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play.
Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield.
I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).
At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).
I think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.
Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play.
Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield.
I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).
At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).
Actually, his game against the Redskins told me a different story. When I see 8-9 men in the box, AND a line giving an NFL QB time to throw, I would expect him to crush the opponent. What I don't expect to see is his receivers stopping to wait on a ball, or going to the turf time and time again while in man coverage. His receivers rarely were able to catch a ball in stride, despite the fact that the defenders were playing soft and LETTING THEM catch anything they wanted underneath. And why not let them when half the time they had to go to the turf to catch it at all?
Seriously, most NFL caliber QB's would have torn the Skins first half defensive scheme to shreds with ANY NFL receiving corps....and Jackson didn't. Sometimes completion percentage stats simply don't tell the whole story.
I'm not a Jackson hater... far from it. I am just pointing out that his performance lately has been better not because of anything he's done well, but because of how poorly he performed before. The skins showed him zero respect, and he proved their scheme the right one. If he doesn't seriously improve his accuracy, he won't survive another half season as a starter.
QUOTE (Gamma1210 @ Dec 26 2007, 12:18 PM)
On 85, I think he is a hold right now unless you can get close in value. As was mentioned earlier, his name may get you that trade, unless your league thinks the same way. At this moment, I wouldn't take low value for him, but I may by the end of the offseason.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
I agree with this. Chad Johnson gets a lot of extra attention, both good and bad, because of his persona. He's taken a lot of bashing this year, but he's not the problem with the Bengals---far from it.
If I had CJ on my roster, I'd hold onto him. As it is, I think he's a buy low right now while people assume that he might get traded, or that he's a headcase, or that he's not as good as he once was.
There are some major problems with this Bengals franchise right now and none of them involve Chad Johnson.
It's another year of the Mike Brown family's incompetence trickling down to the playing field. The franchise with the skimpiest scouting staff in the league has a tough time keeping up with the Jones' on scouting, especially in getting in-depth reports on character issues. The Bengals had a couple of decent years when Marvin Lewis took over, but this franchise isn't out of the woods yet. The vortex that Mike Brown created in the 1990s is powerful enough to suck the Marvin Lewis Bengals right back down to the laughing stock embarrassment they've been since the Dave Shula years. Incompetence mixed with apathy is a powerful force.
It's another year in a string of Bengals teams since 1980 that has a defense without a backbone which leads to physical and mental weakness on the field. This has become a hallmark of the Bengals franchise, and any Steeler who has played against the Bengals over the past 15 years knows it. You can intimidate the Bengals and force your will upon them because their defense has no backbone. This is the state of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Because Chad Johnson is an easy target and the only name shallow media types have at quick recall, he somehow gets singled out for blame when the Bengals disappoint. Cincinnati has a long history of tearing apart its own best players in any sport, but I think any Bengals fan with a modicum of intelligence will tell you that Chad Johnson isn't the Bengals problem right now. He's simply the ESPN-generated star-come-lately, and you know that when ESPN makes someone a star, they will continue to
until a new network star comes along to take his place. QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 25 2007, 12:03 PM)
i agree; Welker is this year's Michael Furrey--a guy who had a career year in the perfect offensive situation for his talent.
Really? Welker = Furrey in your eyes?
I don't buy that one at all. I don't expect Welker to repeat his '07 numbers again in '08 (especially the TD numbers), but do I expect him to stay startable more often than not. He's a better player than Furrey, he'll be more consistently targeted, and he has a much better QB throwing to him. Throw in Stallworth's likely exit and the fact that Chad Jackson will probably not have earned Brady's trust yet, and Welker is virtually guaranteed to stay heavily involved.
QUOTE (fatness @ Dec 25 2007, 09:35 AM)
Nice message on your blog, F&L.
Thanks, fatness.
Good to hear from you.
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 24 2007, 02:57 PM)
I have never said Brady Quinn is better than Derek Anderson. Never. All I've said is that Quinn is a good buy low and Anderson is a good sell high. That's not the same thing as saying Quinn is better than Anderson. However, Quinn MIGHT be better. We don't know yet.
Anderson will probably finish the season ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. The guys ahead of him are named Brady, Romo, Manning, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Hasselbeck. I find it highly unlikely that he'll ever leapfrog those guys. On the flipside, I could see him tumble down the rankings a bit. I would probably rather have Bulger, McNabb, and Cutler. I'm not sure he's any better than Schaub. He just has better numbers since he's thrown more.
Basically, I think it's more likely that Derek Anderson fades in the rankings than it is that he rises. He really hasn't been THAT good this season. His QB rating is a very mediocre 82.7 (comparable to that of Kitna, Rivers, and Palmer). He and Eli Manning have the worst completion percentages of any top 15 yardage QB (56.6% and 55.3% respectively). The next lowest guy is over 60%.
Anderson has had a mediocre NFL season that's been masked by his surprise top 10 FF status and the surprise success of the Browns. Unless he steps up his game over the next year or two, I'd look for him to eventually regress into a weak QB1 or even a QB2 for FF purposes. I don't think the Delhomme comparison is far off. Both guys are good enough to keep a starting job in the league, yet neither guy is a player you really want leading your NFL or FF team.
Anderson will probably finish the season ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. The guys ahead of him are named Brady, Romo, Manning, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Hasselbeck. I find it highly unlikely that he'll ever leapfrog those guys. On the flipside, I could see him tumble down the rankings a bit. I would probably rather have Bulger, McNabb, and Cutler. I'm not sure he's any better than Schaub. He just has better numbers since he's thrown more.
Basically, I think it's more likely that Derek Anderson fades in the rankings than it is that he rises. He really hasn't been THAT good this season. His QB rating is a very mediocre 82.7 (comparable to that of Kitna, Rivers, and Palmer). He and Eli Manning have the worst completion percentages of any top 15 yardage QB (56.6% and 55.3% respectively). The next lowest guy is over 60%.
Anderson has had a mediocre NFL season that's been masked by his surprise top 10 FF status and the surprise success of the Browns. Unless he steps up his game over the next year or two, I'd look for him to eventually regress into a weak QB1 or even a QB2 for FF purposes. I don't think the Delhomme comparison is far off. Both guys are good enough to keep a starting job in the league, yet neither guy is a player you really want leading your NFL or FF team.
I think this is very well said. That's exactly how I feel about Anderson's value. He had a great fantasy season and was a godsend for the Cleveland Browns, but we have to figure out his future value based on the whole picture. I agree that he's much more likely to fade next year than to rise.
what are your thoughts on Ernest Graham for the future? I was thinking about offering up cotchery for graham in my dynasty league but I have no idea what his role will be in the future
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 26 2007, 02:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 23 2007, 10:53 PM)
My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.
SSOG, I really like this "rule of thumb" strategy for QBs combined with some other statistics like YPA & TD:INT ratio. Do you have similar takes on evaluating RBs & WRs?
I wish that I did, but in looking at the data for WRs and RBs, I haven't seen any trends that were as blatant as the QB trend (that in any given year, 80% of the QBs who finish in the top 10 also achieved a top 10 ranking within their first two seasons as a starter). Just look at this year's leaderboard at the QB position. The only QBs currently in the top 16 who did not finish in the top 10 in either of their first two seasons as a starter are Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, and Jay Cutler. If you add a little bit of common sense to the evaluation, then Roeth gets a pass for that whole "best rookie passer rating in NFL history" thing, and Cutler gets a pass for that whole "only .3 points out of the top 10" thing, which leaves Brees and Hasselbeck as the only real exceptions to the rule. And both of them demonstrated really quickly that they were exceptions- in year 3, Hass ranked 4th, while Brees ranked 11th. So even if you do hold on to a QB after his second sub-par season as a starter, if he has a third, it's time to get whatever you possibly can for him and move on.
I personally find the data very surprising, given the perceived "learning curve" facing young QBs, but it's plain as day. It's not like this year is anything special- I posted about this trend before the season started, this year just happened to be like every other year before this one going back at least a full decade. Knowing this trend has really affected my decision-making process, though- not only am I a lot quicker to cut bait in dynasty leagues, I'm also a lot more willing to grab 2nd-year QBs and rely on them as my starter in a redraft league, because if someone is really going to make it in the league long-term, that's when he's probably going to do it by.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 27 2007, 10:13 PM)
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 26 2007, 02:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 23 2007, 10:53 PM)
My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.
SSOG, I really like this "rule of thumb" strategy for QBs combined with some other statistics like YPA & TD:INT ratio. Do you have similar takes on evaluating RBs & WRs?
I wish that I did, but in looking at the data for WRs and RBs, I haven't seen any trends that were as blatant as the QB trend (that in any given year, 80% of the QBs who finish in the top 10 also achieved a top 10 ranking within their first two seasons as a starter). Just look at this year's leaderboard at the QB position. The only QBs currently in the top 16 who did not finish in the top 10 in either of their first two seasons as a starter are Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, and Jay Cutler. If you add a little bit of common sense to the evaluation, then Roeth gets a pass for that whole "best rookie passer rating in NFL history" thing, and Cutler gets a pass for that whole "only .3 points out of the top 10" thing, which leaves Brees and Hasselbeck as the only real exceptions to the rule. And both of them demonstrated really quickly that they were exceptions- in year 3, Hass ranked 4th, while Brees ranked 11th. So even if you do hold on to a QB after his second sub-par season as a starter, if he has a third, it's time to get whatever you possibly can for him and move on.
I personally find the data very surprising, given the perceived "learning curve" facing young QBs, but it's plain as day. It's not like this year is anything special- I posted about this trend before the season started, this year just happened to be like every other year before this one going back at least a full decade. Knowing this trend has really affected my decision-making process, though- not only am I a lot quicker to cut bait in dynasty leagues, I'm also a lot more willing to grab 2nd-year QBs and rely on them as my starter in a redraft league, because if someone is really going to make it in the league long-term, that's when he's probably going to do it by.
Great stuff, SSOG.
QUOTE (Steelers22 @ Dec 27 2007, 09:52 PM)
what are your thoughts on Ernest Graham for the future? I was thinking about offering up cotchery for graham in my dynasty league but I have no idea what his role will be in the future
I don't think anybody can say for sure what his role will be in the future, but I do know that Gruden likes him and he's produced better than Cadillac, who will still be questionable in his return from injury by the beginning of next season. We've covered this one quite a bit over the past month or so, but I know this thread can be a little unwieldy at times in finding relevant discussion in the back pages.
From page 23, post #1144 back on 11/25/07:
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 25 2007, 01:33 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 21 2007, 03:28 PM)
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Nov 21 2007, 02:11 PM)
F&L,
Curious what your thoughts are on Earnest Graham. He seems to be still pretty low in your rankings and not moving up despite putting up several solid weeks so far. Think he's just a flash in the pan? Loses value with Pittman back? Not gonna be the starter come next year with Caddy still in town?
I'm wondering if this is a guy to try and acquire or someone to look to sell if you owned him.
Curious what your thoughts are on Earnest Graham. He seems to be still pretty low in your rankings and not moving up despite putting up several solid weeks so far. Think he's just a flash in the pan? Loses value with Pittman back? Not gonna be the starter come next year with Caddy still in town?
I'm wondering if this is a guy to try and acquire or someone to look to sell if you owned him.
I've actually been moving him up steadily on a weekly basis, so he's come a long way. I have Graham right around DeShaun Foster, Justin Fargas, Maurice Morris, and Jesse Chatman. In other words, I see him as a temporary patch as opposed to a future workhorse. I've never given much consideration to him as a guy who has a future as the starter in Tampa Bay, but after some more in-depth thinking, this is how I would break it down:
The Positives:
- Since Caddy went down, Graham has been more productive than Caddy has been in two years. Production should matter, and even if Graham was seen as a replacement level/special teams player before, he's earned some consideration for a larger role by producing for the offense. The Bucs' ground game has been better the past month than it's been in some time.
- Graham was being used at the goal-line occasionally even before Caddy went down, and he's shown some legit receiving ability. He may not be an ultra-talented RB, but he doesn't have any obvious skill weaknesses where you'd be looking to take parts of his job away from him. Pittman will take over 3rd down duties, but that's more about Michael Pittman than Ernest Graham.
- I don't see the Bucs going into next season with Graham as their starting RB. I think he makes for great depth, and he's a perfect role player (somebody like Sammy Morris that the Patriots would appreciate more than most teams). If Caddy gets healthy, he's sure to muddle the picture in some fashion. I don't see Caddy becoming the full-time back next season, but the presence of Caddy, Pittman, and possibly another back brought in via draft or free agency could certainly mess with Graham's window of opportunity.
- He's already lost some value with Pittman back, and he's going to have to keep putting up numbers the rest of this year on 1st & 2nd downs to even get a shot to carry a chunk of the load in the future. I covered the Bucs game Sunday, and though Graham ran hard, he didn't do squat until the game was out of hand. He's not a dynamically talented RB, so he's going to have to hit the endzone consistently to retain value. I'm not confident that he can do enough to keep the job through the offseason.
Wed. evening Rotoworld update:
QUOTE
Michael Pittman (ankle) missed Buccaneers practice Wednesday, and coach Jon Gruden said afterwards he fears Pittman may be lost for the year.
Pittman admitted after last Sunday's game that he probably should've taken another week to rest his lower leg injury. It's now clear that he re-aggravated the injury, possibly severely. Pittman's locker was reportedly cleared out Wednesday, signaling his placement on injured reserve could be imminent. Earnest Graham would see a huge boost in fantasy value if so.
Pittman admitted after last Sunday's game that he probably should've taken another week to rest his lower leg injury. It's now clear that he re-aggravated the injury, possibly severely. Pittman's locker was reportedly cleared out Wednesday, signaling his placement on injured reserve could be imminent. Earnest Graham would see a huge boost in fantasy value if so.
Saturday night update: Gruden calls Earnest Graham "the real deal."
QUOTE
When you factor in the yards he's gained as a pass catcher, Graham is producing more than 100 all-purpose yards per game the last four games.
Those numbers figure to improve as Graham's field vision improves. If that happens, Michael Bennett may have a hard time getting back on the field and Michael Pittman may once again have a hard time getting into games.
"He's been good for us as a runner, as receiver and as a guy that we've relied on," Bucs coach Jon Gruden said. "What he's done the last four or five games speaks for itself. He's the real deal."
Those numbers figure to improve as Graham's field vision improves. If that happens, Michael Bennett may have a hard time getting back on the field and Michael Pittman may once again have a hard time getting into games.
"He's been good for us as a runner, as receiver and as a guy that we've relied on," Bucs coach Jon Gruden said. "What he's done the last four or five games speaks for itself. He's the real deal."
From page 25, post #1215 back on 11/29/07:
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 10:04 AM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Nov 29 2007, 08:45 AM)
Earnest Graham in tier 4 is still a bit low, IMHO.
So you think he's more Rudi Johnson in '03 as opposed to Samkon Gado in '05?
Is here to stay for good or just a flash in the pan patching over the hole at RB for half a season?
He's probably somewhere in between. I think he'll stay involved in the offense somewhat next year, but I don't believe he has a window of a few years where he's going to be the unquestioned starter in Tampa Bay.
I think right now is the perfect time to sell high on Earnest Graham if you find someone who believes he's a stud for the next year or two. Either way, there's a more in-depth Earnest Graham breakdown on page 23, post #1127 & #1144 from just last week.
EBF great post from page 26, #1290 back on 12/4/07:
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 4 2007, 11:58 PM)
Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham definitely fit the mold of "good, but not great." I generally think it's best to err on the side of pessimissim when considering the dynasty value of guys like this. Look around the NFL right now and make a list of the active RBs who have been starters for at least two consecutive years. You get a group like this:
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
There's probably more on Earnest Graham from pages 27-35 here if you have the time to keep searching, but I think those are the most relevant discussions...and I've already spent over a half-hour spanning the archives, so I'm fried on Earnest Graham right now. Hope this helps...
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 26 2007, 10:50 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 25 2007, 12:03 PM)
i agree; Welker is this year's Michael Furrey--a guy who had a career year in the perfect offensive situation for his talent.
Really? Welker = Furrey in your eyes?
I don't buy that one at all. I don't expect Welker to repeat his '07 numbers again in '08 (especially the TD numbers), but do I expect him to stay startable more often than not. He's a better player than Furrey, he'll be more consistently targeted, and he has a much better QB throwing to him. Throw in Stallworth's likely exit and the fact that Chad Jackson will probably not have earned Brady's trust yet, and Welker is virtually guaranteed to stay heavily involved.
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 01:40 AM)
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
Thanks and congratulations on your win, cardiackid. First year in a dynasty league, too -- mighty impressive.
But no take-backs on your offer
. Next time I'm in Colorado or Wyoming, I'm coming to Denver to put down beers like Hunter S. Thompson on a bender. I think it was Fat Tire Amber Ale last time I was out that way...and lot's of it.Line 'em up
. QUOTE (Gamma1210 @ Dec 26 2007, 12:18 PM)
On 85, I think he is a hold right now unless you can get close in value. As was mentioned earlier, his name may get you that trade, unless your league thinks the same way. At this moment, I wouldn't take low value for him, but I may by the end of the offseason.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
I can still see his talent on the field this year, but Palmer and the Bengals offense looked horrible and couldn't get him the ball, and they didn't have much of a running game to keep balance. I am going to keep a close eye on their offseason moves this year. If they get some help in their run d so teams can't keep Palmer off the field, and some O-line help (its obvious looking at CLE that Steinbech made a huge difference) I think 85 will be back to top-3 numbers. Remember Chad likes to get deep, and TJ runs shorter routes. If the line can't allow Chad to get deep than he has to go to TJ, which is what I credit a lot of this year to.
On the other hand, if Cincy doesn't get help on both lines, I will try to move Chad during the summer even if I have to take a hit in value.
From today's Cincinnati Enquirer:
QUOTE
Johnson has 89 receptions (his career high is 97 in 2005) and 1,309 yards, just 60 off his total from last season, which was second most in his career. He has six touchdowns after scoring seven last season.
Yet there's a prevailing sense Johnson's production has fallen.
"There's nothing you could do about it; only make the most of my opportunities when the ball comes, that's all I can do," he said. "I've never been a person who puts up lots of touchdowns anyway. I think the most I ever had was 10 in '03. ... I'm double- or triple-teamed almost every play - especially when we get down to red zone."
Yet there's a prevailing sense Johnson's production has fallen.
"There's nothing you could do about it; only make the most of my opportunities when the ball comes, that's all I can do," he said. "I've never been a person who puts up lots of touchdowns anyway. I think the most I ever had was 10 in '03. ... I'm double- or triple-teamed almost every play - especially when we get down to red zone."
His production isn't down at all this season...just the consistency of it.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 12:56 PM)
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 01:40 AM)
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
Thanks and congratulations on your win, cardiackid. First year in a dynasty league, too -- mighty impressive.
But no take-backs on your offer
. Next time I'm in Colorado or Wyoming, I'm coming to Denver to put down beers like Hunter S. Thompson on a bender. I think it was Fat Tire Amber Ale last time I was out that way...and lot's of it.Line 'em up
.Love me some Fat Tire. Only can get it when I visit my parents in Dallas. They had two 6 packs for me for the Xmas weekend and I had 11 of them.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 01:03 PM)
His production isn't down at all this season...just the consistency of it.
He's no more inconsistent this year than he was last year, when he was easily the most inconsistent WR in the league. I don't know if this is a meaningful trend or just statistical noise, because prior to last season he was, if not the most consistent guy ever, then at least very reliable.
As usual, great thread F&L.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 28 2007, 06:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 01:03 PM)
His production isn't down at all this season...just the consistency of it.
He's no more inconsistent this year than he was last year, when he was easily the most inconsistent WR in the league. I don't know if this is a meaningful trend or just statistical noise, because prior to last season he was, if not the most consistent guy ever, then at least very reliable.
Good point.
I just flipped on the Afternoon Blitz NFL radio on Sirius, and they've been talking a lot about Chad Johnson wanting out of Cincinnati. I missed the interview with Chad, but apparently he's just about had it with the Bengals shenanigans. I don't know if that's just frustration speaking or not, but they're spending a lot of time talking about it.
I always figured the Bengals would be crazy to trade him, but they're talking about the Bengals planting the seed now in fans' heads, so it makes it easier to trade him when they have to.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 28 2007, 06:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 01:03 PM)
His production isn't down at all this season...just the consistency of it.
He's no more inconsistent this year than he was last year, when he was easily the most inconsistent WR in the league. I don't know if this is a meaningful trend or just statistical noise, because prior to last season he was, if not the most consistent guy ever, then at least very reliable.
Good point.
I just flipped on the Afternoon Blitz NFL radio on Sirius, and they've been talking a lot about Chad Johnson wanting out of Cincinnati. I missed the interview with Chad, but apparently he's just about had it with the Bengals shenanigans. I don't know if that's just frustration speaking or not, but they're spending a lot of time talking about it.
I always figured the Bengals would be crazy to trade him, but they're talking about the Bengals planting the seed now in fans' heads, so it makes it easier to trade him when they have to.
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:14 PM)
As usual, great thread F&L.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Thanks, joddgydogg.
I gotta say this is a very misleading interpretation of "my stance." My stance is entirely on a case-by-case basis and has nothing to do with older automatically = reliable. If you're young and reliable, you're a stud. If you're old and reliable, you have plenty of value for as long as you can stay reliable. If you're young and unreliable, it depends on your ceiling, but it's tough to rank young and unreliable over old and reliable.
Now, to your specific case of Boldin vs. Holt -- they're ranked exactly equal in value. Holt isn't even ranked above Boldin. Is this just picking nits, or has Boldin's blow-up game got you overly excited about his value?
Re: whether anybody would trade Boldin for Holt, I would definitely consider that trade (and probably do it), and I guarantee there are Holt owners here who wouldn't trade him for Boldin. I think Holt is about as consistent as they come, and it speaks volumes about his value that he was able to remain reliable with a cranky knee while the Rams offense fell apart around him this season. I, for one, appreciate that reliability that only a stud can pull off in a year like the Rams just had. Boldin, on the other hand, just disappears too much for my liking. He can be a beast in any given game, but he also misses too much time with injury and goes through multi-week phases where he doesn't show up in the offense enough. Throw in his average of just five TDs per season, and I can't consider him a WR1 whereas I think you could say that Holt remains a low end WR1 for the next couple of seasons.
I can see being excited about Boldin after last week's game against the Falcons, but where was he for the past couple of months? That was only his 2nd 100 yard game of the season. He has jaw-dropping talent, but I need reliability in a WR1. That could happen for Boldin at any time, but I don't think he's there now.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Dec 28 2007, 06:24 PM)
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
Zero. He beat the crap out of a valet the week after he got reinstated. He's a waste of flesh...but he sure can make plays on a football field.
I agree with you about the potential dilemma. He could put up huge numbers if he takes CJ's spot in the offense, but talk about ephemeral value...
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:30 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Dec 28 2007, 06:24 PM)
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
Zero. He beat the crap out of a valet the week after he got reinstated. He's a waste of flesh...but he sure can make plays on a football field.
I agree with you about the potential dilemma. He could put up huge numbers if he takes CJ's spot in the offense, but talk about ephemeral value...
I think you are mistaken about this. He got into an argument with a valet, but there is nothing to suggest there was any physical contact.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:28 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:14 PM)
As usual, great thread F&L.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Thanks, joddgydogg.
This is a very misleading interpretation of "my stance." My stance is entirely on a case-by-case basis and has nothing to do with older automatically = reliable. If you're young and reliable, you're a stud. If you're old and reliable, you have plenty of value for as long as you can stay reliable. If you're young and unreliable, it depends on your ceiling, but it's tough to rank young and unreliable over old and reliable.
Now, to your specific case of Boldin vs. Holt -- they're ranked exactly equal in value. Holt isn't even ranked above Boldin. Is this just picking nits, or has Boldin's blow-up game got you overly excited about his value?
Re: whether anybody would trade Boldin for Holt, I would definitely consider that trade (and probably do it), and I guarantee there are Holt owners here who wouldn't trade him for Boldin. I think Holt is about as consistent as they come, and it speaks volumes about his value that he was able to remain reliable with a cranky knee while the Rams offense fell apart around him this season. I, for one, appreciate that reliability that only a stud can pull off in a year like the Rams just had. Boldin, on the other hand, just disappears too much for my liking. He can be a beast in any given game, but he also misses too much time with injury and goes through multi-week phases where he doesn't show up in the offense enough. Throw in his average of just five TDs per season, and I can't consider him a WR1 whereas I think you could say that Holt remains a low end WR1 for the next couple of seasons.
I can see being excited about Boldin after last week's game against the Falcons, but where was he for the past couple of months? That was only his 2nd 100 yard game of the season. He has jaw-dropping talent, but I need reliability in a WR1. That could happen for Boldin at any time, but I don't think he's there now.
All well said.
I am not getting giddy about Boldin over one game. I've owned the guy for three years in my Dynasty league. Boldin missed four games due to injury. Even with that injury, hard to argue with these numbers:
Boldin 2007:
67 catches
797 yards
11.9 yards per catch
8 TDs
Holt 2007:
86 catches
1096 yards
12.7 yards per catch
7 TDs
Granted, Boldin had a couple of huge games this year and some quiet ones. But Holt had games that were equally mediocre. So to me, you have two talented guys on good passing teams that put up similar numbers.
So the one number that stands out in all this is age.
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:41 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:28 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:14 PM)
As usual, great thread F&L.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Thanks, joddgydogg.
This is a very misleading interpretation of "my stance." My stance is entirely on a case-by-case basis and has nothing to do with older automatically = reliable. If you're young and reliable, you're a stud. If you're old and reliable, you have plenty of value for as long as you can stay reliable. If you're young and unreliable, it depends on your ceiling, but it's tough to rank young and unreliable over old and reliable.
Now, to your specific case of Boldin vs. Holt -- they're ranked exactly equal in value. Holt isn't even ranked above Boldin. Is this just picking nits, or has Boldin's blow-up game got you overly excited about his value?
Re: whether anybody would trade Boldin for Holt, I would definitely consider that trade (and probably do it), and I guarantee there are Holt owners here who wouldn't trade him for Boldin. I think Holt is about as consistent as they come, and it speaks volumes about his value that he was able to remain reliable with a cranky knee while the Rams offense fell apart around him this season. I, for one, appreciate that reliability that only a stud can pull off in a year like the Rams just had. Boldin, on the other hand, just disappears too much for my liking. He can be a beast in any given game, but he also misses too much time with injury and goes through multi-week phases where he doesn't show up in the offense enough. Throw in his average of just five TDs per season, and I can't consider him a WR1 whereas I think you could say that Holt remains a low end WR1 for the next couple of seasons.
I can see being excited about Boldin after last week's game against the Falcons, but where was he for the past couple of months? That was only his 2nd 100 yard game of the season. He has jaw-dropping talent, but I need reliability in a WR1. That could happen for Boldin at any time, but I don't think he's there now.
All well said.
I am not getting giddy about Boldin over one game. I've owned the guy for three years in my Dynasty league. Boldin missed four games due to injury. Even with that injury, hard to argue with these numbers:
Boldin 2007:
67 catches
797 yards
11.9 yards per catch
8 TDs
Holt 2007:
86 catches
1096 yards
12.7 yards per catch
7 TDs
Granted, Boldin had a couple of huge games this year and some quiet ones. But Holt had games that were equally mediocre. So to me, you have two talented guys on good passing teams that put up similar numbers.
So the one number that stands out in all this is age.
Fair enough. I think the age and high end athletic ability/explosiveness stand out on Boldin's end. I think the consistency, reliability, and edge in TDs stand out for Holt. I think they're awfully close in value.
I might give Holt a slight edge in knowing that I can plug him in there every week and cross off WR1 or high WR2 as one less position I ever have to be concerned about. With Boldin, I just feel like I have to revisit him as a WR1 or high WR2 every week and make sure I can depend on him that week. But I can also see giving Boldin the edge because of upside and shelf-life.
QUOTE (Onions @ Dec 28 2007, 06:40 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:30 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Dec 28 2007, 06:24 PM)
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
Zero. He beat the crap out of a valet the week after he got reinstated. He's a waste of flesh...but he sure can make plays on a football field.
I agree with you about the potential dilemma. He could put up huge numbers if he takes CJ's spot in the offense, but talk about ephemeral value...
I think you are mistaken about this. He got into an argument with a valet, but there is nothing to suggest there was any physical contact.
Hmm...I got that from wikipedia which says "Henry allegedly assaulted a valet attendant at Newport on the Levee." Sounds like there may have been a shove and then verbal abuse from Henry. So "beat the crap out of" him is definitely an exaggeration. I take that back.
Still, the guy is a waste of flesh, and it's only a matter of time before he pulls another stunt involving drugs, alcohol, or physical abuse. Just look at the laundry list of incidents with this guy in just a few years since he's been in the league.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:54 PM)
QUOTE (Onions @ Dec 28 2007, 06:40 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:30 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Dec 28 2007, 06:24 PM)
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
Zero. He beat the crap out of a valet the week after he got reinstated. He's a waste of flesh...but he sure can make plays on a football field.
I agree with you about the potential dilemma. He could put up huge numbers if he takes CJ's spot in the offense, but talk about ephemeral value...
I think you are mistaken about this. He got into an argument with a valet, but there is nothing to suggest there was any physical contact.
Hmm...I got that from wikipedia which says "Henry allegedly assaulted a valet attendant at Newport on the Levee." Sounds like there may have been a shove and then verbal abuse from Henry. So "beat the crap out" him is definitely an exaggeration. I take that back.
Still, the guy is a waste of flesh, and it's only a matter of time before he pulls another stunt involving drugs, alcohol, or physical abuse.
Fair enough - For whatever it's worth, I agree with your assessment of Henry.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:50 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:41 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:28 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Dec 28 2007, 06:14 PM)
As usual, great thread F&L.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Not sure why you'd still rank Torry Holt over Anquan Boldin. I am a big Holt fan, and it's clear that the Rams will rebound offensively next season. But in this case we're talking about about a guy in Boldin that's 4 years younger than Holt. I know your stance on older, established stars being more reliable. But I don't think there's a dynasty owner in the Shark Pool that would give up Boldin for Holt.
Thanks, joddgydogg.
This is a very misleading interpretation of "my stance." My stance is entirely on a case-by-case basis and has nothing to do with older automatically = reliable. If you're young and reliable, you're a stud. If you're old and reliable, you have plenty of value for as long as you can stay reliable. If you're young and unreliable, it depends on your ceiling, but it's tough to rank young and unreliable over old and reliable.
Now, to your specific case of Boldin vs. Holt -- they're ranked exactly equal in value. Holt isn't even ranked above Boldin. Is this just picking nits, or has Boldin's blow-up game got you overly excited about his value?
Re: whether anybody would trade Boldin for Holt, I would definitely consider that trade (and probably do it), and I guarantee there are Holt owners here who wouldn't trade him for Boldin. I think Holt is about as consistent as they come, and it speaks volumes about his value that he was able to remain reliable with a cranky knee while the Rams offense fell apart around him this season. I, for one, appreciate that reliability that only a stud can pull off in a year like the Rams just had. Boldin, on the other hand, just disappears too much for my liking. He can be a beast in any given game, but he also misses too much time with injury and goes through multi-week phases where he doesn't show up in the offense enough. Throw in his average of just five TDs per season, and I can't consider him a WR1 whereas I think you could say that Holt remains a low end WR1 for the next couple of seasons.
I can see being excited about Boldin after last week's game against the Falcons, but where was he for the past couple of months? That was only his 2nd 100 yard game of the season. He has jaw-dropping talent, but I need reliability in a WR1. That could happen for Boldin at any time, but I don't think he's there now.
All well said.
I am not getting giddy about Boldin over one game. I've owned the guy for three years in my Dynasty league. Boldin missed four games due to injury. Even with that injury, hard to argue with these numbers:
Boldin 2007:
67 catches
797 yards
11.9 yards per catch
8 TDs
Holt 2007:
86 catches
1096 yards
12.7 yards per catch
7 TDs
Granted, Boldin had a couple of huge games this year and some quiet ones. But Holt had games that were equally mediocre. So to me, you have two talented guys on good passing teams that put up similar numbers.
So the one number that stands out in all this is age.
Fair enough. I think the age and high end athletic ability/explosiveness stand out on Boldin's end. I think the consistency, reliability, and edge in TDs stand out for Holt. I think they're awfully close in value.
I might give Holt a slight edge in knowing that I can plug him in there every week and cross off WR1 or high WR2 as one less position I ever have to be concerned about. With Boldin, I just feel like I have to revisit him as a WR1 or high WR2 every week and make sure I can depend on him that week. But I can also see giving Boldin the edge because of upside and shelf-life.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:54 PM)
QUOTE (Onions @ Dec 28 2007, 06:40 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 03:30 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Dec 28 2007, 06:24 PM)
Chris Henry will move into the starting lineup if Ocho Cinco leaves, which creates a real dilemma for fantasy owners. In a perfect world he'd rocket up dynasty charts, but I'm so tired of paying a pretty penny for guys with checkered histories and then once again being burned. I wonder what the chances are that this guy has grown up a little since his suspension.
Zero. He beat the crap out of a valet the week after he got reinstated. He's a waste of flesh...but he sure can make plays on a football field.
I agree with you about the potential dilemma. He could put up huge numbers if he takes CJ's spot in the offense, but talk about ephemeral value...
I think you are mistaken about this. He got into an argument with a valet, but there is nothing to suggest there was any physical contact.
Hmm...I got that from wikipedia which says "Henry allegedly assaulted a valet attendant at Newport on the Levee." Sounds like there may have been a shove and then verbal abuse from Henry. So "beat the crap out of" him is definitely an exaggeration. I take that back.
Still, the guy is a waste of flesh, and it's only a matter of time before he pulls another stunt involving drugs, alcohol, or physical abuse. Just look at the laundry list of incidents with this guy in just a few years since he's been in the league.
Henry is a punk. Now does that mean he can't be a productive FF star? No. But ask Antonio Bryant if talent alone is enough to make you a star in this league. Henry hasn't proven that he can stay on a positive path so far.
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Dec 28 2007, 05:35 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 12:56 PM)
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 01:40 AM)
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
Thanks and congratulations on your win, cardiackid. First year in a dynasty league, too -- mighty impressive.
But no take-backs on your offer
. Next time I'm in Colorado or Wyoming, I'm coming to Denver to put down beers like Hunter S. Thompson on a bender. I think it was Fat Tire Amber Ale last time I was out that way...and lot's of it.Line 'em up
.Love me some Fat Tire. Only can get it when I visit my parents in Dallas. They had two 6 packs for me for the Xmas weekend and I had 11 of them.
Fat Tire has been my favorite since moving to CO in the early 90s. It will make ordering easier. I may mix in a Newcastle though.
I could export to fans, but I'd think the shipping weight would make it tough.
:/endfattirehijack:
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 05:45 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Dec 28 2007, 05:35 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 12:56 PM)
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 01:40 AM)
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
Thanks and congratulations on your win, cardiackid. First year in a dynasty league, too -- mighty impressive.
But no take-backs on your offer
. Next time I'm in Colorado or Wyoming, I'm coming to Denver to put down beers like Hunter S. Thompson on a bender. I think it was Fat Tire Amber Ale last time I was out that way...and lot's of it.Line 'em up
.Love me some Fat Tire. Only can get it when I visit my parents in Dallas. They had two 6 packs for me for the Xmas weekend and I had 11 of them.
Fat Tire has been my favorite since moving to CO in the early 90s. It will make ordering easier. I may mix in a Newcastle though.
I could export to fans, but I'd think the shipping weight would make it tough.
:/endfattirehijack:
If you're ever out in Seattle, get either the Alakan Amber (very smooth, not hoppy) or the Mac and Jack's African Amber (unfiltered amber that is only available on tap). So good that Fat Tire is #3 in my dynasty amber ale rankings. Alaskan far and away the #1 amber ale.
First, we don't know if Moss will be back. Second, I expect the emphasis to shift back toward the run more next year. Third, Welker is more a slot guy than a featured guy. Also, I expect Chad Jackson to be given a chance to step into the WR2 spot in place of Stallworth and there is always the chance they go out and get another Wr as they have a penchant for doing.
Really? Welker = Furrey in your eyes?
I don't buy that one at all. I don't expect Welker to repeat his '07 numbers again in '08 (especially the TD numbers), but do I expect him to stay startable more often than not. He's a better player than Furrey, he'll be more consistently targeted, and he has a much better QB throwing to him. Throw in Stallworth's likely exit and the fact that Chad Jackson will probably not have earned Brady's trust yet, and Welker is virtually guaranteed to stay heavily involved.
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the are on me.
Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
QUOTE (thecardiackid @ Dec 28 2007, 01:40 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 26 2007, 10:50 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 25 2007, 12:03 PM)
i agree; Welker is this year's Michael Furrey--a guy who had a career year in the perfect offensive situation for his talent.
Really? Welker = Furrey in your eyes?
I don't buy that one at all. I don't expect Welker to repeat his '07 numbers again in '08 (especially the TD numbers), but do I expect him to stay startable more often than not. He's a better player than Furrey, he'll be more consistently targeted, and he has a much better QB throwing to him. Throw in Stallworth's likely exit and the fact that Chad Jackson will probably not have earned Brady's trust yet, and Welker is virtually guaranteed to stay heavily involved.
Welker was one of my correct guesses this season, and I see no reason (in that offense) for things to change much - even the TDs. Moss will continue to draw most of the attention, leaving Welker to grab all the underneath dumps. The guy was $$$ in PPR formats - he finished the season #20 OVERALL (scoring) in one of my leagues. ETA - IF Stallworth does leave (seems possible considering he's been MIA for the last month or so) I can also see Gaffney keeping some role in the passing game - considering what he's done over the past 5 games w/ the opportunites he's been taking advantage of. I have both and would love to start them and be able to count on 10-12/140-180/1-2 combined for WRs 2/3
Also, FnL, huge props for creating and maintaining this thread.
I owe you (and the other posters here adding dynasty league opinions) some credit for my SB win after we had the start up dynasty draft this year. I admit that lady luck seemed to be on my side (mainly avoiding big injuries aside from AJ for mid season), but still managed to lead wire-to-wire and bring home the trophy. This was my first venture into dynasty (actually drafting a team), and if you ever make it to Denver, CO - PM me and the
are on me.Core was Romo (over McNabb), Addai, MJD, AJ, Welker, Cooley, MN D/ST w/ a lot of WR3 fill ins. I referenced this list and really appreciated having the player's ages included. It helped me managed to not only draft a team that was competitve - winning the first year - but also young enough to (hopefully) keep it up for a while. Thanks for your efforts.
What is your thoughts on Jamal Lewis. The Browns line looks improved and Jamal had a fantastic finish. The Browns offense is also well balanced with Edwards and Winslow. If the Browns DEF. could get better than Jamal might be even more impressive.
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
QUOTE (new-guru @ Dec 28 2007, 10:55 PM)
What is your thoughts on Jamal Lewis. The Browns line looks improved and Jamal had a fantastic finish. The Browns offense is also well balanced with Edwards and Winslow. If the Browns DEF. could get better than Jamal might be even more impressive.
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
He could be too low, but I don't want to put him very high in a dynasty ranking for the same reason I didn't go gaga over Travis Henry's value when everybody was losing their minds late last summer. In both cases, you just have to go year-to-year with their value. I don't think there's any longterm stability or peace of mind with Lewis or Henry, especially considering their histories. And in both cases, their value could all but vanish at a moment's notice.
I do think Lewis has had more of a spring his step this season, and he looked closer to vintage form than washed up form....but how long will it last with his injury history, his recent plodding style of the past couple of seasons, and his career workload? Throw in his contract status, and there's too much year-to-year guesswork involved for major dynasty value. At least that's how I see it...
Will he stay with the Browns? My guess is yes. I've seen others say that he will price himself out of the picture, but free agent RBs always think they're getting the
, and the for the most part nobody wants to pay them. Michael Turner could enter the picture, but maybe you go with the back you know as opposed to the back-up who will be starting for the first time and probably have more competitions for his services around the league?How long will he be dependable? Nobody knows. That's why his value is year-to-year. If not month-to-month...
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 28 2007, 10:52 PM)
First, we don't know if Moss will be back. Second, I expect the emphasis to shift back toward the run more next year. Third, Welker is more a slot guy than a featured guy. Also, I expect Chad Jackson to be given a chance to step into the WR2 spot in place of Stallworth and there is always the chance they go out and get another Wr as they have a penchant for doing.
That seems like a lot of wild speculation on which to base Welker's value. Don't you think there's a better chance he stays heavily involved in the offense than for all of that to happen?
I agree that he won't duplicate this year's stats again. But Mike Furrey? Come on...that's too simplistic.
Part of it is pure evaluation of his talent--and I just don't think he has the talent. I see him as a slot receiver. Maybe I am wrong. But last year before CJ2 was drafted a lot of people thought Furrey was on his way to a great career. Every year there are WRs who emerge out of no where to have great years--and I think this year it is Welker. I just don't see him being a top Wr year in and year out--he doesn't have the physical tools.
That seems like a lot of wild speculation on which to base Welker's value. Don't you think there's a better chance he stays heavily involved in the offense than for all of that to happen?
I agree that he won't duplicate this year's stats again. But Mike Furrey? Come on...that's too simplistic.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 11:08 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 28 2007, 10:52 PM)
First, we don't know if Moss will be back. Second, I expect the emphasis to shift back toward the run more next year. Third, Welker is more a slot guy than a featured guy. Also, I expect Chad Jackson to be given a chance to step into the WR2 spot in place of Stallworth and there is always the chance they go out and get another Wr as they have a penchant for doing.
That seems like a lot of wild speculation on which to base Welker's value. Don't you think there's a better chance he stays heavily involved in the offense than for all of that to happen?
I agree that he won't duplicate this year's stats again. But Mike Furrey? Come on...that's too simplistic.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 10:06 PM)
QUOTE (new-guru @ Dec 28 2007, 10:55 PM)
What is your thoughts on Jamal Lewis. The Browns line looks improved and Jamal had a fantastic finish. The Browns offense is also well balanced with Edwards and Winslow. If the Browns DEF. could get better than Jamal might be even more impressive.
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
He could be too low, but I don't want to put him very high in a dynasty ranking for the same reason I didn't go gaga over Travis Henry's value when everybody was losing their minds late last summer. In both cases, you just have to go year-to-year with their value. I don't think there's any longterm stability or peace of mind with Lewis or Henry, especially considering their histories. And in both cases, their value could all but vanish at a moment's notice.
I do think Lewis has had more of a spring his step this season, and he looked closer to vintage form than washed up form....but how long will it last with his injury history, his recent plodding style of the past couple of seasons, and his career workload? Throw in his contract status, and there's too much year-to-year guesswork involved for major dynasty value. At least that's how I see it...
Will he stay with the Browns? My guess is yes. I've seen others say that he will price himself out of the picture, but free agent RBs always think they're getting the
, and the for the most part nobody wants to pay them. Michael Turner could enter the picture, but maybe you go with the back you know as opposed to the back-up who will be starting for the first time and probably have more competitions for his services around the league?How long will he be dependable? Nobody knows. That's why his value is year-to-year. If not month-to-month...
thanks
if anyone else has anything much appreciated.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 28 2007, 11:20 PM)
Part of it is pure evaluation of his talent--and I just don't think he has the talent. I see him as a slot receiver. Maybe I am wrong. But last year before CJ2 was drafted a lot of people thought Furrey was on his way to a great career. Every year there are WRs who emerge out of no where to have great years--and I think this year it is Welker. I just don't see him being a top Wr year in and year out--he doesn't have the physical tools.
He seems to have the best physical tool possible for his position -- the ability to get open consistently and catch the ball. I'll take that over "measurables" any day.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 28 2007, 11:20 PM)
Part of it is pure evaluation of his talent--and I just don't think he has the talent. I see him as a slot receiver. Maybe I am wrong. But last year before CJ2 was drafted a lot of people thought Furrey was on his way to a great career. Every year there are WRs who emerge out of no where to have great years--and I think this year it is Welker. I just don't see him being a top Wr year in and year out--he doesn't have the physical tools.
Since when is the slot sole domain of WRs who were too untalented to fit anywhere else? The slot requires a different skillset than either outside position. Slot receivers have to be smarter, shiftier, better at getting quick separation in traffic, and have more reliable hands than your average deep guy. A lot of times the slot guy is simply the third best WR on the team because teams don't use the slot receiver often enough to waste a great player's talents on the position. Sometimes slot receivers are incredibly talented players, though- it's just that their talents are perfectly suited to the slot. Brandon Stokley is one of these guys. Read the Denver game threads from this season and see how often I use the words "Brandon Stokley" and "uncoverable" in the same post. Wes Welker is likewise one of these guys. All he does is produce, produce, produce. He produces with Joey Harrington, with Daunte Culpepper, with A.J. Feeley, and with Tom Brady. He doesn't have off-the-charts measurables, but if physical tools made a great WR, then this would be Matt Jones' world and we'd all just be living in it. If physical tools were even mandatory for a great WR, then we never would have seen the likes of Ed McCaffrey. Brains and reliability are incredibly valuable skills, and Welker has them in spades.
Yes, Welker is "just" a slot receiver, but that does not make him untalented, or replaceable.
Dallas Clark is another example of a guy who is "just" a slot receiver who still plays an integral role in his offense and who is expected to hold his value very well going forward (assuming he stays in Indy, of course). They're rare, but they're out there, and Welker is definitely one of them.
QUOTE (new-guru @ Dec 28 2007, 11:29 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 28 2007, 10:06 PM)
QUOTE (new-guru @ Dec 28 2007, 10:55 PM)
What is your thoughts on Jamal Lewis. The Browns line looks improved and Jamal had a fantastic finish. The Browns offense is also well balanced with Edwards and Winslow. If the Browns DEF. could get better than Jamal might be even more impressive.
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
My questions are:
How long will Jamal be dependable (years left)? He is only 28
Will he stay with the Browns?
Is he ranked to low?
He could be too low, but I don't want to put him very high in a dynasty ranking for the same reason I didn't go gaga over Travis Henry's value when everybody was losing their minds late last summer. In both cases, you just have to go year-to-year with their value. I don't think there's any longterm stability or peace of mind with Lewis or Henry, especially considering their histories. And in both cases, their value could all but vanish at a moment's notice.
I do think Lewis has had more of a spring his step this season, and he looked closer to vintage form than washed up form....but how long will it last with his injury history, his recent plodding style of the past couple of seasons, and his career workload? Throw in his contract status, and there's too much year-to-year guesswork involved for major dynasty value. At least that's how I see it...
Will he stay with the Browns? My guess is yes. I've seen others say that he will price himself out of the picture, but free agent RBs always think they're getting the
, and the for the most part nobody wants to pay them. Michael Turner could enter the picture, but maybe you go with the back you know as opposed to the back-up who will be starting for the first time and probably have more competitions for his services around the league?How long will he be dependable? Nobody knows. That's why his value is year-to-year. If not month-to-month...
thanks
if anyone else has anything much appreciated.
From rotoworld.com today:
QUOTE
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Browns fully intend to re-sign impending free agent Jamal Lewis.
Not a terrible idea after his career rebirth in 2007, but the Browns shouldn't commit too much money to Lewis for too long. This has been the first year he's stayed healthy since his 387-carry campaign in 2003 and he'll be 29 by next summer. Finding a running back of the future should be an offseason priority for Cleveland. A source told the Plain Dealer that talks with Lewis have begun, and that the Browns will also keep Derek Anderson in 2008.
Not a terrible idea after his career rebirth in 2007, but the Browns shouldn't commit too much money to Lewis for too long. This has been the first year he's stayed healthy since his 387-carry campaign in 2003 and he'll be 29 by next summer. Finding a running back of the future should be an offseason priority for Cleveland. A source told the Plain Dealer that talks with Lewis have begun, and that the Browns will also keep Derek Anderson in 2008.
In the end you seem to agree that he is really a slot WR. The rest of the question is how much will he produce in the future as a slot Wr in NE? I see this year as an anomaly and I expect the team to redesign the offense more toward running the ball next year. The fact is that defenses have started to figure them out and they haven't been doing as well offensively down the stretch and really should have lost some games without help from the guys in stripes. I expect Bellichick to do what he always does--reinvent the scheme next year and that being the case I just don't see the slot WR as involved.
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
Since when is the slot sole domain of WRs who were too untalented to fit anywhere else? The slot requires a different skillset than either outside position. Slot receivers have to be smarter, shiftier, better at getting quick separation in traffic, and have more reliable hands than your average deep guy. A lot of times the slot guy is simply the third best WR on the team because teams don't use the slot receiver often enough to waste a great player's talents on the position. Sometimes slot receivers are incredibly talented players, though- it's just that their talents are perfectly suited to the slot. Brandon Stokley is one of these guys. Read the Denver game threads from this season and see how often I use the words "Brandon Stokley" and "uncoverable" in the same post. Wes Welker is likewise one of these guys. All he does is produce, produce, produce. He produces with Joey Harrington, with Daunte Culpepper, with A.J. Feeley, and with Tom Brady. He doesn't have off-the-charts measurables, but if physical tools made a great WR, then this would be Matt Jones' world and we'd all just be living in it. If physical tools were even mandatory for a great WR, then we never would have seen the likes of Ed McCaffrey. Brains and reliability are incredibly valuable skills, and Welker has them in spades.
Yes, Welker is "just" a slot receiver, but that does not make him untalented, or replaceable.
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 29 2007, 02:51 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 28 2007, 11:20 PM)
Part of it is pure evaluation of his talent--and I just don't think he has the talent. I see him as a slot receiver. Maybe I am wrong. But last year before CJ2 was drafted a lot of people thought Furrey was on his way to a great career. Every year there are WRs who emerge out of no where to have great years--and I think this year it is Welker. I just don't see him being a top Wr year in and year out--he doesn't have the physical tools.
Since when is the slot sole domain of WRs who were too untalented to fit anywhere else? The slot requires a different skillset than either outside position. Slot receivers have to be smarter, shiftier, better at getting quick separation in traffic, and have more reliable hands than your average deep guy. A lot of times the slot guy is simply the third best WR on the team because teams don't use the slot receiver often enough to waste a great player's talents on the position. Sometimes slot receivers are incredibly talented players, though- it's just that their talents are perfectly suited to the slot. Brandon Stokley is one of these guys. Read the Denver game threads from this season and see how often I use the words "Brandon Stokley" and "uncoverable" in the same post. Wes Welker is likewise one of these guys. All he does is produce, produce, produce. He produces with Joey Harrington, with Daunte Culpepper, with A.J. Feeley, and with Tom Brady. He doesn't have off-the-charts measurables, but if physical tools made a great WR, then this would be Matt Jones' world and we'd all just be living in it. If physical tools were even mandatory for a great WR, then we never would have seen the likes of Ed McCaffrey. Brains and reliability are incredibly valuable skills, and Welker has them in spades.
Yes, Welker is "just" a slot receiver, but that does not make him untalented, or replaceable.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 29 2007, 02:38 PM)
In the end you seem to agree that he is really a slot WR. The rest of the question is how much will he produce in the future as a slot Wr in NE? I see this year as an anomaly and I expect the team to redesign the offense more toward running the ball next year. The fact is that defenses have started to figure them out and they haven't been doing as well offensively down the stretch and really should have lost some games without help from the guys in stripes. I expect Bellichick to do what he always does--reinvent the scheme next year and that being the case I just don't see the slot WR as involved.
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
First off, I really feel like I'm beating my head against a wall with this Brandon Marshall thing. I try to make it as clear as possible, but no one ever understands me. I'm *NOT* saying that Brandon Marshall will never be an elite WR. I'm just saying that he's not one right this very second. I *DO* think that Brandon Marshall will one day be an elite WR (or, at the very least, I think he's one of the most likely candidates in the entire NFL to make that jump in the next couple of years). I think Calvin Johnson will be an elite WR one day, too... but he's not right now. I think Sidney Rice will likely be an elite WR one day... but he's not right now. I think Dwayne Bowe will likely be an elite WR some day... but he's not right now. I think Brandon Marshall will very likely be an elite WR some day... but he's not right now.
Second off, asking how many good seasons Stokley has had is a bit unfair. Only three times in his entire career has he played 15+ games. One of them was in Baltimore, which was an anemic offense in the best of times and barely had any crumbs to go around for the later receivers. One of them was in Indy where he posted 1,000 yards and 10 scores as a WR3. The third was also in Indy, where he had a very mediocre year. Still, there's one GIGANTIC problem with your Welker = Stokley comparison... Stokley has always been his team's THIRD target, while Welker is his team's SECOND target. Stokley has never had 100+ targets in his entire career. Welker finished this season with 145. And he was so productive with those targets that Belichick would be INSANE to take them away from him. I mean, he caught 11 of his 12 targets today while defenses were focusing on Randy Moss. That's insane. Who would phase a guy out of the game plan when that guy just finished the season with an ABSURD 77% catch%?
I think you're focusing too much on the fact that Welker generally plays in the slot and not enough on the fact that he's the #2 option in New England's passing game. You compare him to other slot WRs, but that's a faulty comparison because other slot WRs are #3 or #4 options. Welker is the #2 option in what is probably the best passing offense in the entire NFL, and #2 options in elite passing offenses are elite fantasy football players.
Besides, you keep mentioning physical tools. My response to that is two words: Matt Jones. The guy is 6'6", 242 pounds, and runs a sub-4.4 forty. No other player in the entire league has the physical tools of Matt Jones. And I'd pass on him in favor of someone with FOOTBALL tools, like the ability to get open, catch the football, and make something happen with the ball in his hands, every day of the week (and twice on Sundays). I don't care what Welker's PHYSICAL tools are. He gets open and catches the football (77% catch%), and he has stellar skills with the ball in his hands (or why else do you think he'd be back returning punts and kickoffs?). Here is a brief list of players with poor physical attributes but incredible "football skills": Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice. Welker's obviously not of that caliber, but it's very easy to fall in love with someone's measurables and forget that we're playing football, not running a relay. I don't care if Kyle Boller can hit an upright from his knees on the 40 yard line, Chad Pennington is a better player.
F&L, I've been biting my tongue for a couple of weeks now because I didn't want to say anything before I had a chance to move him (since several owners in my league also lurk here and I'm pretty sure they know who I am), but I think you've got Terrell Owens too high in your rankings. I think he's a definite "sell high".
The problem with Owens isn't that he's not productive, or that he won't continue to be so. I think Owens will probably be a top-10 WR, possibly top-5 WR again next year (although I think if Glenn comes back that hurts his numbers some). The problem is that he's going to be absolutely hemorrhaging value for the rest of his career. His value will never again be as high as it is now, regardless of how he continues to produce.
I understand that Terrell Owens is a physical specimen who looks set to defy the laws of aging. I understand that he just posted the best season by a 34-year-old WR in NFL history. That doesn't change the fact that 11 WRs have scored 150+ points at the age of 34, and only 8 have done so at the ages of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 COMBINED (and three of those were Jerry Rice). Even if we believe that Terrell Owens is going to match Jerry Rice for longevity, he probably only has three very good years left in him. You could keep him and benefit from those three good years, but if you do, then you lose all exit value that he once held. Instead, you could move Owens for someone else in line for three more very good years who would still have some exit value after those three years are up.
If I believe that Owens is going to post 450 points over the next three years, then I would gladly trade him for a WR who is 5+ years younger who I project out to 350-400 points over that span. I think the difference in exit value more than makes up for the difference in points. Right now I would take the majority of the WRs in tier 2 (yes, that includes Brandon Marshall ) for Terrell Owens... but the best part is that I wouldn't have to. Right now, you could probably get any of those guys *and a little extra* for Owens.
Just to give an idea of where I valued him, I traded him for Antonio Gates straight up in a TE-required league. I didn't need Gates, but I figured Gates was a player with enough cachet that I could get fair market value for him in another trade later on.
The problem with Owens isn't that he's not productive, or that he won't continue to be so. I think Owens will probably be a top-10 WR, possibly top-5 WR again next year (although I think if Glenn comes back that hurts his numbers some). The problem is that he's going to be absolutely hemorrhaging value for the rest of his career. His value will never again be as high as it is now, regardless of how he continues to produce.
I understand that Terrell Owens is a physical specimen who looks set to defy the laws of aging. I understand that he just posted the best season by a 34-year-old WR in NFL history. That doesn't change the fact that 11 WRs have scored 150+ points at the age of 34, and only 8 have done so at the ages of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 COMBINED (and three of those were Jerry Rice). Even if we believe that Terrell Owens is going to match Jerry Rice for longevity, he probably only has three very good years left in him. You could keep him and benefit from those three good years, but if you do, then you lose all exit value that he once held. Instead, you could move Owens for someone else in line for three more very good years who would still have some exit value after those three years are up.
If I believe that Owens is going to post 450 points over the next three years, then I would gladly trade him for a WR who is 5+ years younger who I project out to 350-400 points over that span. I think the difference in exit value more than makes up for the difference in points. Right now I would take the majority of the WRs in tier 2 (yes, that includes Brandon Marshall
) for Terrell Owens... but the best part is that I wouldn't have to. Right now, you could probably get any of those guys *and a little extra* for Owens.Just to give an idea of where I valued him, I traded him for Antonio Gates straight up in a TE-required league. I didn't need Gates, but I figured Gates was a player with enough cachet that I could get fair market value for him in another trade later on.
Adrian Peterson (AD). Discuss.
Seriously. He cost me two championships, so I'm not thinking very rationally. There is a separate thread discussing AD's poor finish (2.7 ypc in last 4 games), but it is full of nonsense from people just like me that are reacting emotionally.
So let's start a rational discussion among the bright minds that keep up with this thread. I think it is relevant because he might be ripe for the picking in some dynasty leagues (see the other thread for examples of owners jumping ship). Also, while some may argue that it's splitting hairs by distinguishing between LT, AD, Westy, SJax, Addai, LJ, and other top tier RBs, but I think it's worthwhile to think about where AD deserves to be ranked among the elite.
The best place to start, IMO, is "why did AD put up poor stats down the stretch". Note, that I didn't say "why did he play poorly". That's because I didn't see the games, so I am only judging by the stats. From my reading, some of the reasons being thrown out are:
1. Injury. AD is not fully recovered. The only moves I saw were the TD runs against Detroit and Chicago. He didn't look hurt to me. At least with respect to lateral movement. Any sign that he lost "burst"? If injury is a reason, I would feel better owning AD on the assumption that an off-season of rest and training would help him return to form.
2. Rookie wall. I don't buy it. I believe that either FBG or Pro Football Prospectus had an article debunking this theory. I give this no credence.
3. Game Plan. Opposing teams figured out how to contain AD. I've seen this oversimplified as "9 men in the box", which may be true given T-Jax poor statistical performances. Another explanation is that, because of the unimanginative play-calling, the opposing team knew that AD was going to run. He was not going to be passed to (true based on targets) and his runs were of a predictable variety (lots of stretch plays). Another more detailed explanation is a change of approach. I heard that Washington's strategy was to have its DL simply stand up Minnesota's OL and not penetrate. This prevented AD from having the lanes he needed to get to the second level.
I tend to think it is #3. And if it is, the likelihood of AD overcoming the game plan is dependent on a number of factors:
1. QB Play: If Jackson is still the QB, I think AD will not reach his full potential next season.
2. Coaching: I really think Childress and his OC are bad. I have a hard time believing that they are "smart" enough to continue to make adjustments to free up AD (i.e., pass to him, use him on third down).
3. Learning: This is where I pin my hopes that AD will shine. I think AD has to (1) pick up the skills he needs to be on the field on third down and to become a passing threat and (2) become more patient (he can't always come to the line at full speed, he needs to learn to slow down, find the hole, and then burst through). The latter is based on comments on NFL Network about some lack of patience and that he starts deeper in the back field than most RBs because he comes at the line with such speed.
Any insight on why AD put up poor stats and whether he can rebound are appreciated.
Seriously. He cost me two championships, so I'm not thinking very rationally. There is a separate thread discussing AD's poor finish (2.7 ypc in last 4 games), but it is full of nonsense from people just like me that are reacting emotionally.
So let's start a rational discussion among the bright minds that keep up with this thread. I think it is relevant because he might be ripe for the picking in some dynasty leagues (see the other thread for examples of owners jumping ship). Also, while some may argue that it's splitting hairs by distinguishing between LT, AD, Westy, SJax, Addai, LJ, and other top tier RBs, but I think it's worthwhile to think about where AD deserves to be ranked among the elite.
The best place to start, IMO, is "why did AD put up poor stats down the stretch". Note, that I didn't say "why did he play poorly". That's because I didn't see the games, so I am only judging by the stats. From my reading, some of the reasons being thrown out are:
1. Injury. AD is not fully recovered. The only moves I saw were the TD runs against Detroit and Chicago. He didn't look hurt to me. At least with respect to lateral movement. Any sign that he lost "burst"? If injury is a reason, I would feel better owning AD on the assumption that an off-season of rest and training would help him return to form.
2. Rookie wall. I don't buy it. I believe that either FBG or Pro Football Prospectus had an article debunking this theory. I give this no credence.
3. Game Plan. Opposing teams figured out how to contain AD. I've seen this oversimplified as "9 men in the box", which may be true given T-Jax poor statistical performances. Another explanation is that, because of the unimanginative play-calling, the opposing team knew that AD was going to run. He was not going to be passed to (true based on targets) and his runs were of a predictable variety (lots of stretch plays). Another more detailed explanation is a change of approach. I heard that Washington's strategy was to have its DL simply stand up Minnesota's OL and not penetrate. This prevented AD from having the lanes he needed to get to the second level.
I tend to think it is #3. And if it is, the likelihood of AD overcoming the game plan is dependent on a number of factors:
1. QB Play: If Jackson is still the QB, I think AD will not reach his full potential next season.
2. Coaching: I really think Childress and his OC are bad. I have a hard time believing that they are "smart" enough to continue to make adjustments to free up AD (i.e., pass to him, use him on third down).
3. Learning: This is where I pin my hopes that AD will shine. I think AD has to (1) pick up the skills he needs to be on the field on third down and to become a passing threat and (2) become more patient (he can't always come to the line at full speed, he needs to learn to slow down, find the hole, and then burst through). The latter is based on comments on NFL Network about some lack of patience and that he starts deeper in the back field than most RBs because he comes at the line with such speed.
Any insight on why AD put up poor stats and whether he can rebound are appreciated.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 30 2007, 06:04 PM)
F&L, I've been biting my tongue for a couple of weeks now because I didn't want to say anything before I had a chance to move him (since several owners in my league also lurk here and I'm pretty sure they know who I am), but I think you've got Terrell Owens too high in your rankings. I think he's a definite "sell high".
The problem with Owens isn't that he's not productive, or that he won't continue to be so. I think Owens will probably be a top-10 WR, possibly top-5 WR again next year (although I think if Glenn comes back that hurts his numbers some). The problem is that he's going to be absolutely hemorrhaging value for the rest of his career. His value will never again be as high as it is now, regardless of how he continues to produce.
I understand that Terrell Owens is a physical specimen who looks set to defy the laws of aging. I understand that he just posted the best season by a 34-year-old WR in NFL history. That doesn't change the fact that 11 WRs have scored 150+ points at the age of 34, and only 8 have done so at the ages of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 COMBINED (and three of those were Jerry Rice). Even if we believe that Terrell Owens is going to match Jerry Rice for longevity, he probably only has three very good years left in him. You could keep him and benefit from those three good years, but if you do, then you lose all exit value that he once held. Instead, you could move Owens for someone else in line for three more very good years who would still have some exit value after those three years are up.
If I believe that Owens is going to post 450 points over the next three years, then I would gladly trade him for a WR who is 5+ years younger who I project out to 350-400 points over that span. I think the difference in exit value more than makes up for the difference in points. Right now I would take the majority of the WRs in tier 2 (yes, that includes Brandon Marshall ) for Terrell Owens... but the best part is that I wouldn't have to. Right now, you could probably get any of those guys *and a little extra* for Owens.
Just to give an idea of where I valued him, I traded him for Antonio Gates straight up in a TE-required league. I didn't need Gates, but I figured Gates was a player with enough cachet that I could get fair market value for him in another trade later on.
The problem with Owens isn't that he's not productive, or that he won't continue to be so. I think Owens will probably be a top-10 WR, possibly top-5 WR again next year (although I think if Glenn comes back that hurts his numbers some). The problem is that he's going to be absolutely hemorrhaging value for the rest of his career. His value will never again be as high as it is now, regardless of how he continues to produce.
I understand that Terrell Owens is a physical specimen who looks set to defy the laws of aging. I understand that he just posted the best season by a 34-year-old WR in NFL history. That doesn't change the fact that 11 WRs have scored 150+ points at the age of 34, and only 8 have done so at the ages of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 COMBINED (and three of those were Jerry Rice). Even if we believe that Terrell Owens is going to match Jerry Rice for longevity, he probably only has three very good years left in him. You could keep him and benefit from those three good years, but if you do, then you lose all exit value that he once held. Instead, you could move Owens for someone else in line for three more very good years who would still have some exit value after those three years are up.
If I believe that Owens is going to post 450 points over the next three years, then I would gladly trade him for a WR who is 5+ years younger who I project out to 350-400 points over that span. I think the difference in exit value more than makes up for the difference in points. Right now I would take the majority of the WRs in tier 2 (yes, that includes Brandon Marshall
) for Terrell Owens... but the best part is that I wouldn't have to. Right now, you could probably get any of those guys *and a little extra* for Owens.Just to give an idea of where I valued him, I traded him for Antonio Gates straight up in a TE-required league. I didn't need Gates, but I figured Gates was a player with enough cachet that I could get fair market value for him in another trade later on.
We've talked about Terrell Owens before, but you raise some pretty good points.
I guess what it comes down to for me is that I'm not as worried about exit value three years down the road with stud WRs like I am with stud RBs. Sometimes you get left holding the bag on a stud WR. That's the price you pay when you gun for a championship every year. The trick is to use him up while he's still in his elite years, and then dump him right as he's toeing the cliff. I don't think T.O. is toeing the cliff yet, and it's too hard to replace his difference-making production.
The bottom line is that the current season is always three times as important as any future season. When you're playing to win a championship, you need T.O. on your roster.
QUOTE (gheemony @ Dec 31 2007, 12:22 AM)
Adrian Peterson (AD). Discuss.
Seriously. He cost me two championships, so I'm not thinking very rationally. There is a separate thread discussing AD's poor finish (2.7 ypc in last 4 games), but it is full of nonsense from people just like me that are reacting emotionally.
So let's start a rational discussion among the bright minds that keep up with this thread. I think it is relevant because he might be ripe for the picking in some dynasty leagues (see the other thread for examples of owners jumping ship). Also, while some may argue that it's splitting hairs by distinguishing between LT, AD, Westy, SJax, Addai, LJ, and other top tier RBs, but I think it's worthwhile to think about where AD deserves to be ranked among the elite.
The best place to start, IMO, is "why did AD put up poor stats down the stretch". Note, that I didn't say "why did he play poorly". That's because I didn't see the games, so I am only judging by the stats. From my reading, some of the reasons being thrown out are:
1. Injury. AD is not fully recovered. The only moves I saw were the TD runs against Detroit and Chicago. He didn't look hurt to me. At least with respect to lateral movement. Any sign that he lost "burst"? If injury is a reason, I would feel better owning AD on the assumption that an off-season of rest and training would help him return to form.
2. Rookie wall. I don't buy it. I believe that either FBG or Pro Football Prospectus had an article debunking this theory. I give this no credence.
3. Game Plan. Opposing teams figured out how to contain AD. I've seen this oversimplified as "9 men in the box", which may be true given T-Jax poor statistical performances. Another explanation is that, because of the unimanginative play-calling, the opposing team knew that AD was going to run. He was not going to be passed to (true based on targets) and his runs were of a predictable variety (lots of stretch plays). Another more detailed explanation is a change of approach. I heard that Washington's strategy was to have its DL simply stand up Minnesota's OL and not penetrate. This prevented AD from having the lanes he needed to get to the second level.
I tend to think it is #3. And if it is, the likelihood of AD overcoming the game plan is dependent on a number of factors:
1. QB Play: If Jackson is still the QB, I think AD will not reach his full potential next season.
2. Coaching: I really think Childress and his OC are bad. I have a hard time believing that they are "smart" enough to continue to make adjustments to free up AD (i.e., pass to him, use him on third down).
3. Learning: This is where I pin my hopes that AD will shine. I think AD has to (1) pick up the skills he needs to be on the field on third down and to become a passing threat and (2) become more patient (he can't always come to the line at full speed, he needs to learn to slow down, find the hole, and then burst through). The latter is based on comments on NFL Network about some lack of patience and that he starts deeper in the back field than most RBs because he comes at the line with such speed.
Any insight on why AD put up poor stats and whether he can rebound are appreciated.
Seriously. He cost me two championships, so I'm not thinking very rationally. There is a separate thread discussing AD's poor finish (2.7 ypc in last 4 games), but it is full of nonsense from people just like me that are reacting emotionally.
So let's start a rational discussion among the bright minds that keep up with this thread. I think it is relevant because he might be ripe for the picking in some dynasty leagues (see the other thread for examples of owners jumping ship). Also, while some may argue that it's splitting hairs by distinguishing between LT, AD, Westy, SJax, Addai, LJ, and other top tier RBs, but I think it's worthwhile to think about where AD deserves to be ranked among the elite.
The best place to start, IMO, is "why did AD put up poor stats down the stretch". Note, that I didn't say "why did he play poorly". That's because I didn't see the games, so I am only judging by the stats. From my reading, some of the reasons being thrown out are:
1. Injury. AD is not fully recovered. The only moves I saw were the TD runs against Detroit and Chicago. He didn't look hurt to me. At least with respect to lateral movement. Any sign that he lost "burst"? If injury is a reason, I would feel better owning AD on the assumption that an off-season of rest and training would help him return to form.
2. Rookie wall. I don't buy it. I believe that either FBG or Pro Football Prospectus had an article debunking this theory. I give this no credence.
3. Game Plan. Opposing teams figured out how to contain AD. I've seen this oversimplified as "9 men in the box", which may be true given T-Jax poor statistical performances. Another explanation is that, because of the unimanginative play-calling, the opposing team knew that AD was going to run. He was not going to be passed to (true based on targets) and his runs were of a predictable variety (lots of stretch plays). Another more detailed explanation is a change of approach. I heard that Washington's strategy was to have its DL simply stand up Minnesota's OL and not penetrate. This prevented AD from having the lanes he needed to get to the second level.
I tend to think it is #3. And if it is, the likelihood of AD overcoming the game plan is dependent on a number of factors:
1. QB Play: If Jackson is still the QB, I think AD will not reach his full potential next season.
2. Coaching: I really think Childress and his OC are bad. I have a hard time believing that they are "smart" enough to continue to make adjustments to free up AD (i.e., pass to him, use him on third down).
3. Learning: This is where I pin my hopes that AD will shine. I think AD has to (1) pick up the skills he needs to be on the field on third down and to become a passing threat and (2) become more patient (he can't always come to the line at full speed, he needs to learn to slow down, find the hole, and then burst through). The latter is based on comments on NFL Network about some lack of patience and that he starts deeper in the back field than most RBs because he comes at the line with such speed.
Any insight on why AD put up poor stats and whether he can rebound are appreciated.
I vote for option #4- Sample sizes are a #####.
In his first three games of the season, LaDanian Tomlinson rushed 57 times for 130 yards, which is a 2.28 yard per carry clip. Over the first five weeks, he was averaging 3.32 yards per carry. Meanwhile, in the last four games of the season, Peterson rushed 54 times for 144 yards (2.67 yards per carry). Both stretches were very similar, and in my opinion, both stretches will mean about as much in the long term- and that's not much at all.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 31 2007, 02:58 AM)
We've talked about Terrell Owens before, but you raise some pretty good points.
I guess what it comes down to for me is that I'm not as worried about exit value three years down the road with stud WRs like I am with stud RBs. Sometimes you get left holding the bag on a stud WR. That's the price you pay when you gun for a championship every year. The trick is to use him up while he's still in his elite years, and then dump him right as he's toeing the cliff. I don't think T.O. is toeing the cliff yet, and it's too hard to replace his difference-making production.
The bottom line is that the current season is always three times as important as any future season. When you're playing to win a championship, you need T.O. on your roster.
I guess what it comes down to for me is that I'm not as worried about exit value three years down the road with stud WRs like I am with stud RBs. Sometimes you get left holding the bag on a stud WR. That's the price you pay when you gun for a championship every year. The trick is to use him up while he's still in his elite years, and then dump him right as he's toeing the cliff. I don't think T.O. is toeing the cliff yet, and it's too hard to replace his difference-making production.
The bottom line is that the current season is always three times as important as any future season. When you're playing to win a championship, you need T.O. on your roster.
Right now, I can get top-10 WR value for Owens. Next year, I almost certainly won't be able to. As a result, I really think it's time to move Owens, especially when you can get someone in return who I think would stand a reasonable chance to produce at a level comparable, if slightly inferior, to Owens'. To pick someone ranked below Owens right now... let's say Torry Holt. Torry Holt should easily be good for 1200 yards and 8-10 scores next year. If you take Owens average season over the past 8 years (and I'm not pro-rating out to 16 games here, because Owens has only played 16 games twice in the past 9 years), he's averaged 1220 yards and 12.4 TDs. Even if you expect no age-related decline (or Terry Glenn-related decline) from Owens' per-season averages, the only difference between that and Holt is 2-4 TDs. I believe that Owens will trade like a top-10 WR right now, and probably like a top-20 WR next year, while Holt will probably trade like a top-10 WR both this year and next. If you could trade Owens for Holt straight up, would you? I know I would- in my mind, those 2-4 extra TDs aren't worth the value loss from WR10 to WR20.
I know that you have Owens only marginally ahead of Holt, but I still think this illustrates our value difference, because I have Holt comfortably ahead of Owens right now.
And this is ignoring the historical aging trends of the WR position. As I mentioned, history paints a pretty bleak picture for WRs after their 35th birthday. 11 WRs have scored 150+ points at 34, but only 8 have done so at 35 or older (and three of those were Jerry Rice). This despite the fact that there have been 41 "relevant" 34-year-old WRs (with relevant being defined as having 30+ catches), but 50 "relevant" WRs aged 35 or older. Owens might defy aging patterns, but not forever. His value has nowhere to go but down and is unlikely to remain steady, which pretty much defines a "sell high" for me.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 30 2007, 02:49 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 29 2007, 02:38 PM)
In the end you seem to agree that he is really a slot WR. The rest of the question is how much will he produce in the future as a slot Wr in NE? I see this year as an anomaly and I expect the team to redesign the offense more toward running the ball next year. The fact is that defenses have started to figure them out and they haven't been doing as well offensively down the stretch and really should have lost some games without help from the guys in stripes. I expect Bellichick to do what he always does--reinvent the scheme next year and that being the case I just don't see the slot WR as involved.
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
We disagree--that's fine. But IMO this is the time to trade Welker because his value will never be higher. As some of you have said the key to this game is figuring out who will rise to the top to be a consistent stud player, and I just don't think that is Welker. It's the same philosophy SSOG as you have stated regarding Brandon Marshall--the difference being that I see Marshall as having the physical tools to belong in the same class as the top WRs and you don't. I definitely don't see Welker as having the same talent as the top guys and that means eventually his numbers will come down to something more like a WR3 or more likely a WR4.
The comparison to Stokely is a good one--how many great years has he produced as a fantasy WR?
First off, I really feel like I'm beating my head against a wall with this Brandon Marshall thing. I try to make it as clear as possible, but no one ever understands me. I'm *NOT* saying that Brandon Marshall will never be an elite WR. I'm just saying that he's not one right this very second. I *DO* think that Brandon Marshall will one day be an elite WR (or, at the very least, I think he's one of the most likely candidates in the entire NFL to make that jump in the next couple of years). I think Calvin Johnson will be an elite WR one day, too... but he's not right now. I think Sidney Rice will likely be an elite WR one day... but he's not right now. I think Dwayne Bowe will likely be an elite WR some day... but he's not right now. I think Brandon Marshall will very likely be an elite WR some day... but he's not right now.
Second off, asking how many good seasons Stokley has had is a bit unfair. Only three times in his entire career has he played 15+ games. One of them was in Baltimore, which was an anemic offense in the best of times and barely had any crumbs to go around for the later receivers. One of them was in Indy where he posted 1,000 yards and 10 scores as a WR3. The third was also in Indy, where he had a very mediocre year. Still, there's one GIGANTIC problem with your Welker = Stokley comparison... Stokley has always been his team's THIRD target, while Welker is his team's SECOND target. Stokley has never had 100+ targets in his entire career. Welker finished this season with 145. And he was so productive with those targets that Belichick would be INSANE to take them away from him. I mean, he caught 11 of his 12 targets today while defenses were focusing on Randy Moss. That's insane. Who would phase a guy out of the game plan when that guy just finished the season with an ABSURD 77% catch%?
I think you're focusing too much on the fact that Welker generally plays in the slot and not enough on the fact that he's the #2 option in New England's passing game. You compare him to other slot WRs, but that's a faulty comparison because other slot WRs are #3 or #4 options. Welker is the #2 option in what is probably the best passing offense in the entire NFL, and #2 options in elite passing offenses are elite fantasy football players.
Besides, you keep mentioning physical tools. My response to that is two words: Matt Jones. The guy is 6'6", 242 pounds, and runs a sub-4.4 forty. No other player in the entire league has the physical tools of Matt Jones. And I'd pass on him in favor of someone with FOOTBALL tools, like the ability to get open, catch the football, and make something happen with the ball in his hands, every day of the week (and twice on Sundays). I don't care what Welker's PHYSICAL tools are. He gets open and catches the football (77% catch%), and he has stellar skills with the ball in his hands (or why else do you think he'd be back returning punts and kickoffs?). Here is a brief list of players with poor physical attributes but incredible "football skills": Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice. Welker's obviously not of that caliber, but it's very easy to fall in love with someone's measurables and forget that we're playing football, not running a relay. I don't care if Kyle Boller can hit an upright from his knees on the 40 yard line, Chad Pennington is a better player.
Welker reminds me of Kevin Curtis, in a way: Both are guys who've excelled as slot WR's in prolific offenses. Curtis showed himself to be pretty solid on the outside this year, and I think Welker can do the same - I saw some of that in Miami. The best NFL WR on Miami last year was NOT Chris Chambers, it was Wes Welker.
As much as some people don't like to admit it, catching the ball is a physical tool. WR's who can't catch don't stay in the league very long. Welker is very quick, but not big nor really superfast. Before anyone goes completely ignoring guys with that skillset, you might want to take a look at one Steve Largent.
I suspect Welker will have a very nice career from here out, because the Patriots have him signed for a while, and he's both versatile & reliable. Stallworth is good as gone, but he's just the #3 WR anyway.
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