Baseball: Reds Trade Hobbs-ilton

Stop me if you've heard this one before. The Reds found themselves with a glut of star-caliber outfielders and a huge gaping hole in their pitching staff. Wayne Krivsky is simply the latest in a long line of Reds GMs who have attempted to solve this conundrum, and his solution was the heretofore unthinkable: trading the Natural.

When I first caught wind a couple of months ago that the Reds were shopping Josh Hamilton for pitching, I was shocked. I realized they had "The Boss", Jay Bruce, coming like a freight train while Dunn and Griffey are literally and figuratively set in stone in left and right field, but could they really just callously trade away a true fan favorite and the feel-good story of the decade in baseball? Wasn't his elite natural talent discernible to even the casual fan?

Still, it's obvious that the Reds did not consider Hamilton a true nucleus player due to his history and his questionable ability to stay healthy. If their baseball people considered him a poor bet for reliability, stretched to stay healthy while giving up his body to make plays in center field, then why not flip the 2007 Rule 5 draft pick for a roll of the dice on a young power arm one year later? There seems be a bit of a "move him while the moving is good" aspect in the Reds thinking. After snagging him for a $50,000 song last season, they could afford to see his ultimate value as playing with the house's money. When Jay Bruce stormed through the minors to become the "Best Prospect in Baseball", Hamilton became a luxury the Reds thought they could not afford while constantly failing to patch over their ongoing dearth of power arms on the pitching staff.

I had resigned myself to a Hamilton trade over the past couple of months, but my hope was for Orioles flame-throwing lefty Eric Bedard. At least then they would have a known commodity to pencil in between Harang and Arroyo at the front of the pitching staff. As it stands now, the Hamilton return is a flame-throwing wild card who could end up anywhere from #3 starter to Louisville bound by Opening Day.

What the papers didn't report, but what seems obvious to me is that this is the ultimate "scout" trade for Krivsky. Edinson Volquez has been a top Rangers prospect for a few years now, but he's never been able to put it all together. His stuff was electric, but his inability to control it led the Rangers to push him all the way back to Single A to start the 2007 season. After struggling early, the light flipped on by mid-season when he found control of his curve ball to give him a third reliable pitch along with his mid-90s heater and a fantastic change-up. Reds scouts must have seen him several times later in the season when he dominated the AAA PCL in eight starts, racking up 66 Ks in just 51 innings with an arresting 1.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The Rangers called him up in August, and he was back to his usual inconsistent self striking out hitters and being stingy with the long ball yet struggling to find the strike zone.

The other pitcher in the deal, Daniel Herrera, is a fun 5'8" lefty with an 82 mph fastball, dominant stats, and a funky screwball-like out pitch. He might grow up to be the over-40 version of Jesse Orosco, but he'll probably start the 2008 season in AA Chattanooga.

The good news for Reds fans is that Volquez has a difference-making arm, and high-upside arms should always be at the top of any Krivsky shopping list. It was almost 20 years ago when a similar trade brought the Reds future World Series MVP Jose Rijo. Volquez' scouting reports read like a carbon copy of Rijo's, but the bad news is that, like Rijo was at the time, Volquez is as much of a pure wild card as you can find. The state of baseball in the 21st century, where talented outfielders grow on trees and young pitching is worth its weight in gold, dictates that the Reds' pay a high price in assets to round out their pitching staff. In the end, they traded from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness. By this time next year, Jay Bruce should make Josh Hamilton long forgotten...unless, of course, Volquez melts down weekly on the pitching mound.

From Rotoworld:

Josh Hamilton: Rangers acquire outfielder Josh Hamilton from the Reds for RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Daniel Herrera. Hamilton showed incredible potential after a long absence last season, so this seems like a worthy gamble for the Rangers. Volquez also has plenty of upside, but like Hamilton, his career could go in any direction. Hamilton will step into the Rangers' outfield, probably in center, and could hit somewhere in the middle of the order. He was a threat to reach 30 homers in Cincinnati and he still is in Texas. However, we do worry about his ability to stay healthy. Put the over/under at somewhere around 450 at-bats next season. That's still 100 more than Milton Bradley usually gets. With the trade, the Rangers figure to abandon plans to pursue Mike Cameron, who could now be a target of the Reds, or any other outfielder. They'll likely look to add a starter. Jon Lieber and Jason Jennings are a couple of possibilities.

Edinson Volquez: Reds acquired RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Daniel Herrera from the Rangers for outfielder Josh Hamilton. Volquez, who was penciled in as the Rangers' fifth starter, joins Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Matt Belisle in Cincinnati's rotation. Homer Bailey is the current favorite for the fifth spot, though it's possible they'll pick up one more starter and drop Belisle into the competition. Volquez has been around for quite some time now, but he seemed to make real progress with his command in the second half of last season. If he holds on to it, he has the potential to be a No. 3 or even a No. 2 starter in the majors. He's a definite sleeper in NL-only leagues.

Daniel Herrera: LHP Daniel Herrera was traded from the Rangers to the Reds in a three-player deal.

The 5-foot-8, 145-pound Herrera had a remarkable 1.35 ERA and a 61/12 K/BB ratio in 53 1/3 innings for Single-A Stockton after being drafted in the 45th round out of the University of New Mexico in 2006. He remained effective out of the pen last season, amassing a 3.69 ERA and a 75/25 K/BB ratio in 63 1/3 innings while spending most of the year in Double-A. With above average command and the ability to get grounders, he could prove to be fairly useful out of the bullpen. There isn't much upside here, though.