Check out the new Dynasty Rankings Blog for further discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy.
If change was going to be inevitable, the end of the fantasy season and the beginning of a new year is as fine a time as any to install that change. As those of you who have been around since the beginning know, situations have arisen which have spurred me at times to look into moving the rankings to another site where they will be more protected.
I’ve been kicking the blog idea around for several years, but my own sloth and procrastination have kept me from seeing that idea through. With time off from school for Christmas break, the impetus finally moved me from the idea stage to the action stage.
Since it’s a time-consuming hassle to update two lists on two different sites, and since there was a reason to move the rankings in the first place, the rankings have been moved exclusively to the dynastyrankings blog starting January 1, 2008. As always, feel free to comment at the blog itself, or simply continue to bring it up here for discussion. I fully intend to stay heavily involved in this thread and on the message board.
If change was going to be inevitable, the end of the fantasy season and the beginning of a new year is as fine a time as any to install that change. As those of you who have been around since the beginning know, situations have arisen which have spurred me at times to look into moving the rankings to another site where they will be more protected.
I’ve been kicking the blog idea around for several years, but my own sloth and procrastination have kept me from seeing that idea through. With time off from school for Christmas break, the impetus finally moved me from the idea stage to the action stage.
Since it’s a time-consuming hassle to update two lists on two different sites, and since there was a reason to move the rankings in the first place, the rankings have been moved exclusively to the dynastyrankings blog starting January 1, 2008. As always, feel free to comment at the blog itself, or simply continue to bring it up here for discussion. I fully intend to stay heavily involved in this thread and on the message board.
Alexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
I think Grossman is ranked pretty low for dynasty purposes.
Great Post.
imho Tatum Bell is too high, and Ma. Clayton and Williamson are too low.
imho Tatum Bell is too high, and Ma. Clayton and Williamson are too low.
24 Julius Jones DAL - Way Low
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
QUOTE (H.K. @ Oct 26 2006, 12:36 PM) 
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
Dynasty rankings, in general, are tricky. Is this year three times more important than next year for a 1-6 team? In Dynasty, every team doesn't have the same goal. Therefore, every team won't place the same value on particular players. In some cases, the value can differ greatly from one team to another.
QUOTE (dgreen @ Oct 26 2006, 12:08 PM)
QUOTE (H.K. @ Oct 26 2006, 12:36 PM)
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
Dynasty rankings, in general, are tricky. Is this year three times more important than next year for a 1-6 team? In Dynasty, every team doesn't have the same goal. Therefore, every team won't place the same value on particular players. In some cases, the value can differ greatly from one team to another.
A rebuilding team vs one built to win this year.
QUOTE (dgreen @ Oct 26 2006, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (H.K. @ Oct 26 2006, 12:36 PM)
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
Dynasty rankings, in general, are tricky. Is this year three times more important than next year for a 1-6 team? In Dynasty, every team doesn't have the same goal. Therefore, every team won't place the same value on particular players. In some cases, the value can differ greatly from one team to another.
also, dynasty owners have different options on players for now and for the future.
perfect example
had a guy that wanted M. Colston in 1 of my dynasty leagues, he is very high on him. He gave up D-Jax for him
Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?
I have never played in a league where the playoffs are after the regular season ends. That would throw off your rankings vs my rankings. The big name guys on bad teams could help get you to the playoffs but they are not going to help you when they are golfing and you are in the playoffs. Not to bust on you but I don't think that I would like the league run like that.
But it still takes time to put together the rankings - so thanks.
But it still takes time to put together the rankings - so thanks.
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Oct 26 2006, 07:07 AM)
Alexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
Maybe. Alexander is almost 30 years old, and his O-Line doesn't appear to be nearly as strong as years past. Portis is starting look a bit injury prone, especially since he's had so many carries under his belt for a 25 year old back. Then again, I could be out-thinking myself.
I think Steven Jackson is a stud. He'll start finding the endzone more often in the 2nd half. Ditto Reggie Bush. His receiving ability almost makes him slump-proof, and I think his playmaking ability will get him into the endzone more in the 2nd half.
QUOTE (pgreenfan @ Oct 26 2006, 10:50 AM)
I think Grossman is ranked pretty low for dynasty purposes.
Call me stubborn, but I'm still not completely sold on Rex Grossman. Look at his numbers this year compared to David Carr. Completion %, QB rating, etc. Grossman will come back down to earth, and I'm still not ruling out a Brian Griese sighting this year.
QUOTE (broncofan13000 @ Oct 26 2006, 12:18 PM)
Great Post.
imho Tatum Bell is too high, and Ma. Clayton and Williamson are too low.
imho Tatum Bell is too high, and Ma. Clayton and Williamson are too low.
I almost ranked Tatum Bell higher. He's a very talented RB, who is just now getting his chance. I'm betting that Shanny's Bob Knight-like mind games with Tatum are over...in which case, he's gold.
Clayton & Williamson could be too low. I'm just not sure I could have a decisive opinion on them one way or another consider they've never really done anything in the NFL to show they're going to be future stars. Clayton got TD's on a couple of fluke tipped ball passes 2 weeks ago. I'm a bit skeptical that he's going to be blowing up any time soon with McNair and/or Boller throwing to him. Williamson should be higher given his talent, but he looks like a guy with much better talent than football skills. He can fly, but what good is that if you keep dropping the ball?
QUOTE (perry147 @ Oct 26 2006, 12:31 PM)
24 Julius Jones DAL - Way Low
He's a tough guy to rank. When I was finished, I thought he stood out as too low. Then I thought about the fact that Marion Barber is going to be around stealing his goal-line & 3rd down carries for the foreseeable future. Add that to the fact that Parcells goes out of his way to praise Barber and look for more ways to get him involved, and it's a pretty muddled fantasy future for Julius Jones.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 01:55 PM)
QUOTE (broncofan13000 @ Oct 26 2006, 12:18 PM)
Great Post.
imho Tatum Bell is too high, and Ma. Clayton and Williamson are too low.
I almost ranked Tatum Bell higher. He's a very talented RB, who is just now getting his chance. I'm betting that Shanny's Bob Knight-like mind games with Tatum are over...in which case, he's gold.
Clayton & Williamson could be too low. I'm just not sure I could have a decisive opinion on them one way or another consider they've never really done anything in the NFL to show they're going to be future stars. Clayton got TD's on a couple of fluke tipped ball passes 2 weeks ago. I'm a bit skeptical that he's going to be blowing up any time soon with McNair and/or Boller throwing to him. Williamson should be higher given his talent, but he looks like a guy with much better talent than football skills. He can fly, but what good is that if you keep dropping the ball?
QUOTE (dgreen @ Oct 26 2006, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (H.K. @ Oct 26 2006, 12:36 PM)
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
Dynasty rankings, in general, are tricky. Is this year three times more important than next year for a 1-6 team? In Dynasty, every team doesn't have the same goal. Therefore, every team won't place the same value on particular players. In some cases, the value can differ greatly from one team to another.
Great points here. Tiki is tough to rank. Before last week's announcement, I had him in the 13-16 range considering he was over 30 but still putting up "in his prime" numbers.
I completely agree that a 1-6 team has a much different agenda than a 5-2 team. That 5-2 team has to value Tiki pretty highly because he has to scratch for a win each week; additionally, the Giants look like a playoff team right now, so Tiki would have a lot of value for the playoffs. The 1-6 team has to try to deal Tiki to the highest bidder.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 01:58 PM)
QUOTE (perry147 @ Oct 26 2006, 12:31 PM)
24 Julius Jones DAL - Way Low
He's a tough guy to rank. When I was finished, I thought he stood out as too low. Then I thought about the fact that Marion Barber is going to be around stealing his goal-line & 3rd down carries for the foreseeable future. Add that to the fact that Parcells goes out of his way to praise Barber and look for more ways to get him involved, and it's a pretty muddled fantasy future for Julius Jones.
It'll all come down to who's in charge next season and which type of back they prefer, so while not in unison with this ranking, I respect it.
QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM)
Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?
Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.
You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.
One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high.
QUOTE (mlichty @ Oct 26 2006, 02:46 PM)
I have never played in a league where the playoffs are after the regular season ends. That would throw off your rankings vs my rankings. The big name guys on bad teams could help get you to the playoffs but they are not going to help you when they are golfing and you are in the playoffs. Not to bust on you but I don't think that I would like the league run like that.
But it still takes time to put together the rankings - so thanks.
But it still takes time to put together the rankings - so thanks.
I've been in both kinds of dynasty leagues before, and I can't say this strongly enough: the leagues where the playoffs occur at the same time as the NFL playoffs are far, far better leagues.
- The strategy involved is much greater than a normal week 14, 15, 16 playoff league. You have to think of playoff permutations throughtout the season, and then it gets crazy towards the end of the regular season. I've seen many owners out-thinking themselves on playoff teams & strategy.
- It stimulates trading. Will I deal Larry Fitzgerald for Marvin Harrison, or will I hold onto him because he's my boy?
- It is a significant boost to league parity. The non-playoff teams are going to end up with a lot more draftpicks and young talent by dealing away their playoff players.
- It allows you to stay more involved with football during the playoffs. Before I started playing in these leagues, I noticed a significant dropoff in my interest level after week 16. Now my favorite games of the season are often the best NFL games: rounds 1 & 2 of the playoffs, where teams are just beating the hell out of each other in desperation to keep going.
QUOTE (perry147 @ Oct 26 2006, 09:10 AM)
QUOTE (dgreen @ Oct 26 2006, 12:08 PM)
QUOTE (H.K. @ Oct 26 2006, 12:36 PM)
Tiki at #27 with ten games left in his career...tough guy to rank given his situation and your premise that present day is three times as valuable as future performance. Don't agree or disagree with the rank, btw, just thought he was a tricky guy to place on the list.
Dynasty rankings, in general, are tricky. Is this year three times more important than next year for a 1-6 team? In Dynasty, every team doesn't have the same goal. Therefore, every team won't place the same value on particular players. In some cases, the value can differ greatly from one team to another.
A rebuilding team vs one built to win this year.
This is true. In one of my dynastys i traded Tiki and Favre for J Norwood and D Hall CB..
Im out of it and i needed to get something to build on. I didnt get fair value but in 3 weeks after the trade deadline both Favre and Tike become worthless
I did wait till i had VERY little chance..SA killed me
I think you're giving a little too much credit to the hyped rookies. What has Maroney really done to warrant being ranked ahead of Kevin Jones, who is having a phenomenal year? Jones was arguably a better prospect entering the league and is actually producing as a starter.
Leinart seems too high. I own Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger in multiple leagues, and I wouldn't trade either player for Leinart. Smith is especially underrated. He's having a great year and was the top overall pick last season. He's for real.
Maurice Drew is too high. I like Reggie Bush, but if we're not talking PPR then I'm not taking him in the top 5 RBs. Chris Perry eleven spots below Marion Barber? Seems a bit off. Perry is the better talent. He's in the same class as Michael Turner.
On the plus side of things, the WR rankings are pretty good. I'd probably bump up Lee Evans and Antonio Bryant, but I think you did a solid job here.
Leinart seems too high. I own Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger in multiple leagues, and I wouldn't trade either player for Leinart. Smith is especially underrated. He's having a great year and was the top overall pick last season. He's for real.
Maurice Drew is too high. I like Reggie Bush, but if we're not talking PPR then I'm not taking him in the top 5 RBs. Chris Perry eleven spots below Marion Barber? Seems a bit off. Perry is the better talent. He's in the same class as Michael Turner.
On the plus side of things, the WR rankings are pretty good. I'd probably bump up Lee Evans and Antonio Bryant, but I think you did a solid job here.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 26 2006, 04:27 PM)
I think you're giving a little too much credit to the hyped rookies. What has Maroney really done to warrant being ranked ahead of Kevin Jones, who is having a phenomenal year? Jones was arguably a better prospect entering the league and is actually producing as a starter.
Leinart seems too high. I own Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger in multiple leagues, and I wouldn't trade either player for Leinart. Smith is especially underrated. He's having a great year and was the top overall pick last season. He's for real.
Maurice Drew is too high. I like Reggie Bush, but if we're not talking PPR then I'm not taking him in the top 5 RBs. Chris Perry eleven spots below Marion Barber? Seems a bit off. Perry is the better talent. He's in the same class as Michael Turner.
On the plus side of things, the WR rankings are pretty good. I'd probably bump up Lee Evans and Antonio Bryant, but I think you did a solid job here.
Leinart seems too high. I own Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger in multiple leagues, and I wouldn't trade either player for Leinart. Smith is especially underrated. He's having a great year and was the top overall pick last season. He's for real.
Maurice Drew is too high. I like Reggie Bush, but if we're not talking PPR then I'm not taking him in the top 5 RBs. Chris Perry eleven spots below Marion Barber? Seems a bit off. Perry is the better talent. He's in the same class as Michael Turner.
On the plus side of things, the WR rankings are pretty good. I'd probably bump up Lee Evans and Antonio Bryant, but I think you did a solid job here.
I had Maroney ranked as a better back coming into the league than Kevin Jones. Maroney is in a much better position, especially in playoff leagues. I think he's the more complete back, I don't worry about the injury factor as much with him as I do Jones, and I think Jones has been under-performing in his short NFL career up until the past few weeks. In short, I would trade Kevin Jones for Laurence Maroney while I would not give up Maroney for Jones if it was offered to me.
Leinart is a stud. I'm not going to change my opinion on him just because some NFL teams got that wrong in the draft or because Jaws thinks they should have stayed with a slippery-mitted statue like Warner. Roethlisberger is an absolute stud as well...and certainly starting to look like a very injury prone stud at that. Smith is making last year look like an aberration. Good for him. He'll keep moving up if he keeps producing. Leinart has the most dynamic young WR duo in the league. The other two do not.
Yeah, I thought Maurice Drew looked high as well, but I also think he's a lot like Westbrook. He's a playmaker and a TD scorer on the run & the pass. Even if JAX uses Greg Jones or another back to pair with him, I think he's still going to produce. I've seen him play almost every week, and he looks pretty explosive to me.
Chris Perry has been extremely brittle. Marion Barber has not. Chris Perry doesn't get into the end zone. Marion Barber does. The other major consideration is who will get a chance to start first: any idea? Me neither. Do I think Perry is more talented? Yes. He's the best 3rd down back in the league. Is staying healthy a talent? Is getting in the end zone a talent?
I think Michael Turner gets a chance to carry the load for an NFL team before Chris Perry, and I'm not sure Perry ever will considering his injury proclivities and lack of bulk.
Bump for the Saturday night / Sunday morning crowd.
Looks good. I'd have Portis at #3. And Hines Ward looks really high to me and Santana Moss looks really low.
Wayne is too low in these dynasty rankings
QUOTE (fruity pebbles @ Oct 28 2006, 11:54 PM)
Looks good. I'd have Portis at #3. And Hines Ward looks really high to me and Santana Moss looks really low.
I could see Portis higher too, but I'm worried about the injuries and the 'Skins offense. Like I said earlier, he's got a ton of mileage under his belt for his age. And what happens to the offense when/if Campbell takes over?
Here's my thinking on Hines Ward vs. Santana Moss:
1] Hines Ward seems to be a top 8-12 WR year in and year out. I think he's that kind of WR no matter who the QB is or what other WRs are around. I think he's consistent, dependable and usually on a playoff team. He stays healthy, is as sure-handed as any WR in the league, manages to rack up catches and is often targeted in the redzone. I think he's less dependent on the people around him than most WRs.
2] Santana Moss may be the most incosistent WR in football, not only game-by-game but also year-to-year. He seems to have a few 2 or 3 TD games where he wins the game for you, only to disappear for several games after that. I'd rather have someone I felt I could count on for a consistent amount of production each week.
3] Brunell is no great shakes at QB these days, but Moss is still able to put up big numbers once every few games with him in there. What happens when Campbell takes over later this season? He's an extremely raw QB, and my guess is all WAS receivers lose their value at that point.
I think Santana Moss is a top 10-15 talent at WR, but his environment and inconsistency would scare me off.
QUOTE (Mimo @ Oct 29 2006, 12:09 AM)
Wayne is too low in these dynasty rankings
I don't think 11th is too low for a #2 WR. I realize this may be an unpopular opinion, but I don't think Wayne is all that great if you take Marvin Harrison out of the equation. I'm not saying he would immediately turn into Peerless Price, but I do think he feasts on the single coverage that Marvin's excellence causes.
As long as he's in Indy with Peyton Manning at QB and Marvin Harrison on the other side, he's a top 10-12 WR. I just don't think he's as talented as the guys I have ranked ahead of him.
I'm willing to admit I could be wrong about him -- especially considering his offense, but I don't think a ranking of 11th is all that low. I honestly don't think I would trade any of the top 10 for him straight up.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 01:49 PM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Oct 26 2006, 07:07 AM)
Alexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
Maybe. Alexander is almost 30 years old, and his O-Line doesn't appear to be nearly as strong as years past. Portis is starting look a bit injury prone, especially since he's had so many carries under his belt for a 25 year old back. Then again, I could be out-thinking myself.
I think Steven Jackson is a stud. He'll start finding the endzone more often in the 2nd half. Ditto Reggie Bush. His receiving ability almost makes him slump-proof, and I think his playmaking ability will get him into the endzone more in the 2nd half.
After re-thinking this and doing some further research, I think you're probably right. I've moved both Alexander & Portis up and moved Bush down a few spots.
I would move up Housh to around the same ranking as Wayne, both are in similar situations playing for strong passing offenses complimented by great WR1s and premier QBs
As a former Cincinnati resident, I've watched just about every game of Housh's career. He's good, he's probably a better football player than most realize and he's a gamer. Nonetheless, he's played over his head this season, and there will be a regression to the mean especially in relation to Chad Johnson returning to the #1 option in the offense for the 2nd half of the season.
I might move him up a couple of spots due to his situation, but I think it's a stretch to say he belongs in the top 12 of dynasty rankings.
I might move him up a couple of spots due to his situation, but I think it's a stretch to say he belongs in the top 12 of dynasty rankings.
Leftwich so high has gotta be a brain ff*art. Has never put up big #'s, can't use 'young' as an excuse anymore, has shown to be quite injury prone, plays in a conservative offense that simply doesn't air it out. Would love to hear ONE positive he would have over a guy like Rivers or Smith (who are ALREADY eating his lunch), and would be scratching my head over anyone thinking that he's better off over the next couple years vs. Delhomme, who will surely be a startable QB as long as Steve Smith is healthy.
QUARTERBACKS RISING:
Michael Vick – The most dynamic talent in football is finding Crumpler again, getting protection, and passing more accurately. He bumps ahead of Hasselbeck, Bulger, etc. due to better chance of becoming a truly elite fantasy player. Fantasy championship runs are usually won behind superstars having great seasons. Could Vick be that horse this season?
Tony Romo – Hogeboo—I mean, Romo, looked very good in his NFL starting debut, giving himself some breathing room and looking like the Cowboys’ QB of the present, if not also the future. As suspected, Romo was better able to use his talented weapons such as T.O. and Witten while bringing Dallas back into the NFC playoff hunt. Considering his surrounding talent, I'd gamble on him over guys like Charlie Frye, Chad Pennington & Jon Kitna.
Tarvaris Jackson – I believe no player has been more overrated by analysts this season than Brad Johnson and no team has been more overrated than the Vikings. Theisman says Johnson just played the worst game he’s seen him play in 5 years. Apparently, he sermonized right through the 2004 season when Johnson was benched in favor of Brian Griese after going 4-11 in his last 15 games started. Brad Johnson, who can no longer do any more than "manage the game", just doesn't have much left in the tank, while Jackson is an athletic QB who showed better than expected accuracy and poise in the preseason. Once the Vikings are eliminated, I expect to see Jackson log some experimental playing time.
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
Byron Leftwich – The injuries are beginning to form a pattern. There was the reported mini-squabble with Del Rio this week while Garrard just keeps winning (though nobody will point out that the Eagles are the first good team he's beaten as a starter). Many have said Leftwich is a poor fit for this offense, though I’m not sure I believe that. Two weeks ago, he was one of the highest scoring QBs in the league with a talented (albeit raw) young WR core and two solid RBs. Now young turks like Rivers, Alex Smith & Vince Young are beginning to look more promising in many eyes. I’m still a Leftwich believer, but I’d deal him for the right price.
David Carr – Statistically, he’s still having a very good season. Just as importantly, he remains Kubiak’s guy and the franchise QB (contrary to trendy belief, I don't see Rosenfels as a threat to Carr at any point. Sage just isn't that good). I think Kubiak pulled him to teach him a lesson and to show the rest of the team that he’s not going to give away a game due to one player’s poor performance. As with Roethlisberger, one poor game should not and will not cause a quarterback controversy. David Carr is the starting QB, but any time a player gets pulled due to poor play he loses a little bit of value.
Chad Pennington – His ceiling is just too low to put up with a stinker like that against the Browns. Where’s the upside? Regardless of how good Pennington may or may not be as a real life QB, I’d rather carry a young QB with promise than a known fantasy mediocrity. Pennington isn’t a QB I’d ever feel comfortable starting beyond a bye week fill-in.
I hope to have the rest of the positions as well as updated rankings as the week goes on.
Michael Vick – The most dynamic talent in football is finding Crumpler again, getting protection, and passing more accurately. He bumps ahead of Hasselbeck, Bulger, etc. due to better chance of becoming a truly elite fantasy player. Fantasy championship runs are usually won behind superstars having great seasons. Could Vick be that horse this season?
Tony Romo – Hogeboo—I mean, Romo, looked very good in his NFL starting debut, giving himself some breathing room and looking like the Cowboys’ QB of the present, if not also the future. As suspected, Romo was better able to use his talented weapons such as T.O. and Witten while bringing Dallas back into the NFC playoff hunt. Considering his surrounding talent, I'd gamble on him over guys like Charlie Frye, Chad Pennington & Jon Kitna.
Tarvaris Jackson – I believe no player has been more overrated by analysts this season than Brad Johnson and no team has been more overrated than the Vikings. Theisman says Johnson just played the worst game he’s seen him play in 5 years. Apparently, he sermonized right through the 2004 season when Johnson was benched in favor of Brian Griese after going 4-11 in his last 15 games started. Brad Johnson, who can no longer do any more than "manage the game", just doesn't have much left in the tank, while Jackson is an athletic QB who showed better than expected accuracy and poise in the preseason. Once the Vikings are eliminated, I expect to see Jackson log some experimental playing time.
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
Byron Leftwich – The injuries are beginning to form a pattern. There was the reported mini-squabble with Del Rio this week while Garrard just keeps winning (though nobody will point out that the Eagles are the first good team he's beaten as a starter). Many have said Leftwich is a poor fit for this offense, though I’m not sure I believe that. Two weeks ago, he was one of the highest scoring QBs in the league with a talented (albeit raw) young WR core and two solid RBs. Now young turks like Rivers, Alex Smith & Vince Young are beginning to look more promising in many eyes. I’m still a Leftwich believer, but I’d deal him for the right price.
David Carr – Statistically, he’s still having a very good season. Just as importantly, he remains Kubiak’s guy and the franchise QB (contrary to trendy belief, I don't see Rosenfels as a threat to Carr at any point. Sage just isn't that good). I think Kubiak pulled him to teach him a lesson and to show the rest of the team that he’s not going to give away a game due to one player’s poor performance. As with Roethlisberger, one poor game should not and will not cause a quarterback controversy. David Carr is the starting QB, but any time a player gets pulled due to poor play he loses a little bit of value.
Chad Pennington – His ceiling is just too low to put up with a stinker like that against the Browns. Where’s the upside? Regardless of how good Pennington may or may not be as a real life QB, I’d rather carry a young QB with promise than a known fantasy mediocrity. Pennington isn’t a QB I’d ever feel comfortable starting beyond a bye week fill-in.
I hope to have the rest of the positions as well as updated rankings as the week goes on.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 AM)
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
I agree he's down a bit in most minds from the Chicago game, but that's only because some people insanely raised expectations after that game. For the most part, dynasty values don't rise and fall after each and every game.
Anyone adjusting their Leinart rankings four games into his career is crazy. I think of him today as I did the day he was drafted.
Matt Jones still ahead of Reggie Williams. Interesting.
Mike Bell is way too low. I believe he is playing on a 1 year contract with Denver and has shown enough to get re-signed there or elsewhere. Definitely more value than a 32 year old Mike Anderson at this point.
QUOTE (Donnybrook @ Nov 1 2006, 11:42 AM)
Mike Bell is way too low. I believe he is playing on a 1 year contract with Denver and has shown enough to get re-signed there or elsewhere. Definitely more value than a 32 year old Mike Anderson at this point.
MBell would be an exclusive-rights free agent, so he's not going anywhere next year. That said, he probably has more value than Mike Anderson at this point.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 AM)
QUARTERBACKS RISING:
Michael Vick – The most dynamic talent in football is finding Crumpler again, getting protection, and passing more accurately. He bumps ahead of Hasselbeck, Bulger, etc. due to better chance of becoming a truly elite fantasy player. Fantasy championship runs are usually won behind superstars having great seasons. Could Vick be that horse this season?
Tony Romo – Hogeboo—I mean, Romo, looked very good in his NFL starting debut, giving himself some breathing room and looking like the Cowboys’ QB of the present, if not also the future. As suspected, Romo was better able to use his talented weapons such as T.O. and Witten while bringing Dallas back into the NFC playoff hunt. Considering his surrounding talent, I'd gamble on him over guys like Charlie Frye, Chad Pennington & Jon Kitna.
Tarvaris Jackson – I believe no player has been more overrated by analysts this season than Brad Johnson and no team has been more overrated than the Vikings. Theisman says Johnson just played the worst game he’s seen him play in 5 years. Apparently, he sermonized right through the 2004 season when Johnson was benched in favor of Brian Griese after going 4-11 in his last 15 games started. Brad Johnson, who can no longer do any more than "manage the game", just doesn't have much left in the tank, while Jackson is an athletic QB who showed better than expected accuracy and poise in the preseason. Once the Vikings are eliminated, I expect to see Jackson log some experimental playing time.
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
Byron Leftwich – The injuries are beginning to form a pattern. There was the reported mini-squabble with Del Rio this week while Garrard just keeps winning (though nobody will point out that the Eagles are the first good team he's beaten as a starter). Many have said Leftwich is a poor fit for this offense, though I’m not sure I believe that. Two weeks ago, he was one of the highest scoring QBs in the league with a talented (albeit raw) young WR core and two solid RBs. Now young turks like Rivers, Alex Smith & Vince Young are beginning to look more promising in many eyes. I’m still a Leftwich believer, but I’d deal him for the right price.
David Carr – Statistically, he’s still having a very good season. Just as importantly, he remains Kubiak’s guy and the franchise QB (contrary to trendy belief, I don't see Rosenfels as a threat to Carr at any point. Sage just isn't that good). I think Kubiak pulled him to teach him a lesson and to show the rest of the team that he’s not going to give away a game due to one player’s poor performance. As with Roethlisberger, one poor game should not and will not cause a quarterback controversy. David Carr is the starting QB, but any time a player gets pulled due to poor play he loses a little bit of value.
Chad Pennington – His ceiling is just too low to put up with a stinker like that against the Browns. Where’s the upside? Regardless of how good Pennington may or may not be as a real life QB, I’d rather carry a young QB with promise than a known fantasy mediocrity. Pennington isn’t a QB I’d ever feel comfortable starting beyond a bye week fill-in.
I hope to have the rest of the positions as well as updated rankings as the week goes on.
Michael Vick – The most dynamic talent in football is finding Crumpler again, getting protection, and passing more accurately. He bumps ahead of Hasselbeck, Bulger, etc. due to better chance of becoming a truly elite fantasy player. Fantasy championship runs are usually won behind superstars having great seasons. Could Vick be that horse this season?
Tony Romo – Hogeboo—I mean, Romo, looked very good in his NFL starting debut, giving himself some breathing room and looking like the Cowboys’ QB of the present, if not also the future. As suspected, Romo was better able to use his talented weapons such as T.O. and Witten while bringing Dallas back into the NFC playoff hunt. Considering his surrounding talent, I'd gamble on him over guys like Charlie Frye, Chad Pennington & Jon Kitna.
Tarvaris Jackson – I believe no player has been more overrated by analysts this season than Brad Johnson and no team has been more overrated than the Vikings. Theisman says Johnson just played the worst game he’s seen him play in 5 years. Apparently, he sermonized right through the 2004 season when Johnson was benched in favor of Brian Griese after going 4-11 in his last 15 games started. Brad Johnson, who can no longer do any more than "manage the game", just doesn't have much left in the tank, while Jackson is an athletic QB who showed better than expected accuracy and poise in the preseason. Once the Vikings are eliminated, I expect to see Jackson log some experimental playing time.
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
Byron Leftwich – The injuries are beginning to form a pattern. There was the reported mini-squabble with Del Rio this week while Garrard just keeps winning (though nobody will point out that the Eagles are the first good team he's beaten as a starter). Many have said Leftwich is a poor fit for this offense, though I’m not sure I believe that. Two weeks ago, he was one of the highest scoring QBs in the league with a talented (albeit raw) young WR core and two solid RBs. Now young turks like Rivers, Alex Smith & Vince Young are beginning to look more promising in many eyes. I’m still a Leftwich believer, but I’d deal him for the right price.
David Carr – Statistically, he’s still having a very good season. Just as importantly, he remains Kubiak’s guy and the franchise QB (contrary to trendy belief, I don't see Rosenfels as a threat to Carr at any point. Sage just isn't that good). I think Kubiak pulled him to teach him a lesson and to show the rest of the team that he’s not going to give away a game due to one player’s poor performance. As with Roethlisberger, one poor game should not and will not cause a quarterback controversy. David Carr is the starting QB, but any time a player gets pulled due to poor play he loses a little bit of value.
Chad Pennington – His ceiling is just too low to put up with a stinker like that against the Browns. Where’s the upside? Regardless of how good Pennington may or may not be as a real life QB, I’d rather carry a young QB with promise than a known fantasy mediocrity. Pennington isn’t a QB I’d ever feel comfortable starting beyond a bye week fill-in.
I hope to have the rest of the positions as well as updated rankings as the week goes on.
The whole thread is great stuff F&L. On your rising/falling -
Vick is definitely rising - he's a top 5 QB at this point. He's evolving into the ultimate weapon envisioned when he went #1 overall.
Romo is definitely rising - he showed he could handle himself in this league after a shaky first half as a starter vs. the Giants.
Jackson has been stable in my rankings for a while. I never expected the Vikes to carry Johnson much later than mid-07 as a starter, and while Jackson could see some time late this year if Johnson really struggles, it doesn't change my long term outlook on him. I should point out that I probably had Jackson a lot higher than most all along.
Leinart is stable. His value lies in the years ahead with Fitz and Boldin. maybe it took a slight downtick because the illusion of him being a safe start this year is gone, but i dont think anyone expected him to be relevant for fantasy this year.
Leftwich is indeed falling. The injury pattern continues, and you hate to see a QB and coach have a falling out. I love the idea of Leftwich + all those tall targets long term - possibly making him a perennial top 10 QB, but for now he has slid behind the solid but not elite QBs like Rivers, Delhomme, and Brees on my list because his value this year has been put into question.
Carr is falling and you hit on why - you never want to see someone get pulled - it makes him a weaker play for the rest of the year, because you have to worry about it happening again until he strings a couple of good games together.
Pennington is stable, but I've always been pretty lukewarm about him. He's purely injury/bye week filler at this point.
I'm surprised you didn't mention Roethlisberger - He didn't look like himself at all last week and right now he seems to have a big mental hill to climb. I'm still excited his possibilities as a fantasy QB if Cowher retires and turns the team over to Whisenhunt, but he looks like a shell of the 05 Big Ben right now.
good posting, glad to see someone else's point of view. However I have to disagree on Julius Jones at #23 and Reggie wayne at #11, also Mike Vick at #9. I think after last weeks performances vick is easily top 5, wayne is easily top 5 and juilus is top 15. Keep up the good work .
Didn't read the whole thread so this may or may not have been covered.
How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)
Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.
I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.
How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)
Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.
I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.
QUOTE (J-Rock @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 PM)
Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.
He has looked WAY better than Smith did in his first 3 starts.
i am having a lot of trouble fatcoring future progress into dynasty rankings, i know its a common theme but lets look at wr's smith, fitz, chad and holt are the top 4.. is fitz the one to have because hes younger, is chad better than holt because hes younger??
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
QUOTE (Sigmund Bloom @ Nov 1 2006, 11:57 AM)
The whole thread is great stuff F&L. On your rising/falling -
Vick is definitely rising - he's a top 5 QB at this point. He's evolving into the ultimate weapon envisioned when he went #1 overall.
Romo is definitely rising - he showed he could handle himself in this league after a shaky first half as a starter vs. the Giants.
Jackson has been stable in my rankings for a while. I never expected the Vikes to carry Johnson much later than mid-07 as a starter, and while Jackson could see some time late this year if Johnson really struggles, it doesn't change my long term outlook on him. I should point out that I probably had Jackson a lot higher than most all along.
Vick is definitely rising - he's a top 5 QB at this point. He's evolving into the ultimate weapon envisioned when he went #1 overall.
Romo is definitely rising - he showed he could handle himself in this league after a shaky first half as a starter vs. the Giants.
Jackson has been stable in my rankings for a while. I never expected the Vikes to carry Johnson much later than mid-07 as a starter, and while Jackson could see some time late this year if Johnson really struggles, it doesn't change my long term outlook on him. I should point out that I probably had Jackson a lot higher than most all along.
Thanks, Sigmund. I appreciate the compliment.
I agree on Jackson. I've been higher on him than most, but I'm still going to bump him ahead of guys like Losman and possibility Pennington as well...especially as bye week fill-ins are no longer needed beyond this week.
QUOTE (Sigmund Bloom @ Nov 1 2006, 11:57 AM)
Leinart is stable. His value lies in the years ahead with Fitz and Boldin. maybe it took a slight downtick because the illusion of him being a safe start this year is gone, but i dont think anyone expected him to be relevant for fantasy this year.
I agree that most of his value lies years ahead with Fitz & Boldin; however, I was under the illusion that he was going to be a safe start this season. I'm still under that illusion with Fitzgerald coming back, but the illusion is beginning to fade a bit with the Cardinals' recent reversion to '90s level Bengals' embarrassment. I had Leinart ranked #7, which was probably too high. And I'll probably only drop him to #9, which isn't a significant change in value. So he drops, but like you said, it's just a slight downtick.
QUOTE (Sigmund Bloom @ Nov 1 2006, 11:57 AM)
Leftwich is indeed falling. The injury pattern continues, and you hate to see a QB and coach have a falling out. I love the idea of Leftwich + all those tall targets long term - possibly making him a perennial top 10 QB, but for now he has slid behind the solid but not elite QBs like Rivers, Delhomme, and Brees on my list because his value this year has been put into question.
Carr is falling and you hit on why - you never want to see someone get pulled - it makes him a weaker play for the rest of the year, because you have to worry about it happening again until he strings a couple of good games together.
Pennington is stable, but I've always been pretty lukewarm about him. He's purely injury/bye week filler at this point.
I'm surprised you didn't mention Roethlisberger - He didn't look like himself at all last week and right now he seems to have a big mental hill to climb. I'm still excited his possibilities as a fantasy QB if Cowher retires and turns the team over to Whisenhunt, but he looks like a shell of the 05 Big Ben right now.
Carr is falling and you hit on why - you never want to see someone get pulled - it makes him a weaker play for the rest of the year, because you have to worry about it happening again until he strings a couple of good games together.
Pennington is stable, but I've always been pretty lukewarm about him. He's purely injury/bye week filler at this point.
I'm surprised you didn't mention Roethlisberger - He didn't look like himself at all last week and right now he seems to have a big mental hill to climb. I'm still excited his possibilities as a fantasy QB if Cowher retires and turns the team over to Whisenhunt, but he looks like a shell of the 05 Big Ben right now.
I think we're definitely on the same page re: Leftwich, Carr & Pennington.
Roethlisberger: I had already dropped him a couple of weeks ago with the slow start. I had him around #6 or #7 to start the season based on his grade A talent and possibly the most impressive start to an NFL QB career in history (you know, if you're concerned with things like wins and championships and such). I'm going to keep him right around #10 now. The OAK game was very odd. He lost that game for the Steelers, a game they had no business losing. The interceptions were season killers. The odd thing was that he really only threw about five bad passes the whole game, and he is throwing much better now than he was earlier in the season. And, seriously, anyone suggesting the Steelers should start Charlie Batch is a dolt, a dullard and a simpleton (and I used to like Sterling Sharpe).
I know many people have mentioned Delhomme as a guy they like better than Roethlisberger & Leinart. Here's how I see Delhomme: he is at this stage of his career as good as he's going to get as a fantasy QB. He's like Hasselbeck in that he's in his prime with good weapons. Jake Delhomme isn't going to get significantly better or significantly worse the next few years. What you see is what you get. So what do you see? I see a guy who would leave me feeling less than secure if I had to run him out there every week as a starter. A #10 ranking at this stage of Delhomme's career means you're starting him every week, or at least most weeks based on match-ups. Where does that put you when 7 other owners in your league are starting McNabb, Manning, Palmer, Brady, Bulger, Vick & Hasselbeck? It puts you at a competitive disadvantage and out of the playoffs. I'm not looking for Jake Delhomme to be my starting QB. If he is, I'd be constantly on the lookout for a chance to upgrade.
On the other hand, if I had Roethlisberger, I'd stash him on my bench and plug in any old easy-to-find Favre or Kitna.
QUOTE (dgreen @ Nov 1 2006, 09:13 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 AM)
QUARTERBACKS FALLING
Matt Leinart – The Arizona organization is a vortex. Leinart may yet pull himself out of it with some help from Boldin & Fitzgerald. However, the coaching staff appears to be in flux, the offensive line is a sieve and they’ve already drained Edgerrin James of his most of his value. Leinart is a special talent, but is he special enough to pull Arizona out of the abyss without a Marvin Lewis-type franchise momentum reverser? He won't drop far, but the future isn't quite as rosy as it was after he picked apart the Bears D.
I agree he's down a bit in most minds from the Chicago game, but that's only because some people insanely raised expectations after that game. For the most part, dynasty values don't rise and fall after each and every game.
Anyone adjusting their Leinart rankings four games into his career is crazy. I think of him today as I did the day he was drafted.
Is that really you Dennis Green? By the way I agree with you.
QUOTE (J-Rock @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 PM)
Didn't read the whole thread so this may or may not have been covered.
How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)
Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.
I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.
How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)
Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.
I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.
Well thanks for jumping in even though you didn't bother to read the whole thread. Sorry, just a bit touchy when somebody basically says: "your opinion isn't important enough to read, but you should listen to mine anyway."
Do you play in a dynasty league? If you do, you would certainly realize that the potential you mentioned with Leinart is worth a lot in dynasty and "proof" isn't nearly as important as it is in a redraft league...regardless of whether you actually believe Smith has shown more "proof" than Leinart at this point (which is debatable).
As Sigmund already mentioned, Leinart's career start is leaps and bounds better than the trainwreck that was Alex Smith just about every start in his rookie season.
Other relevant points: I thought Leinart was a better player coming into the league than Smith. His WRs are head and shoulders above Smith's. I think he'll have a much better career than Smith. So why would I rank Smith ahead of Leinart in a dynasty league?
QUOTE
12 Drew Brees NO
I don't get this ranking at all.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 03:03 PM)
A #10 ranking at this stage of Delhomme's career means you're starting him every week, or at least most weeks based on match-ups. Where does that put you when 7 other owners in your league are starting McNabb, Manning, Palmer, Brady, Bulger, Vick & Hasselbeck? It puts you at a competitive disadvantage and out of the playoffs. I'm not looking for Jake Delhomme to be my starting QB. If he is, I'd be constantly on the lookout for a chance to upgrade.
I think what you're really hitting on here is the big dropoff at QB around 7 or 8. So what we really need to figure out is which of the QBs currently ranked below the dropoff have the potential to join the elite group...
A lot of people have Leinart penciled in, but Young is not getting nearly the credit he deserves as potential future fantasy stud.
QUOTE (Cowboys#1 @ Nov 1 2006, 02:56 PM)
i am having a lot of trouble fatcoring future progress into dynasty rankings, i know its a common theme but lets look at wr's smith, fitz, chad and holt are the top 4.. is fitz the one to have because hes younger, is chad better than holt because hes younger??
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
It depends on your team's and your league's situation. If I was out of the playoff hunt this season, I'd put a premium on Fitzgerald. In my league, guys who are in the playoff hunt must place a premium on likely playoff players. Smith, Holt & Ocho Cinco are all basically in the same boat there. I'd say each of their teams' is basically in the same position with regard to playoff chances. In that situation I'd go with the guy who I believe will help me win week in and week out the remainder of this season: Steve Smith.
QUOTE (JetsWillWin @ Nov 1 2006, 03:14 PM)
QUOTE
12 Drew Brees NO
I don't get this ranking at all.
So where would you have him?
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