In his weekly NFL picks article, ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons had an interesting take on the state of the league's quarterbacks. After realizing that sixty QBs have started games this year, the Sports Guy decided to sit down and figure out just how bad the QB landscape is in the NFL:
Anyway, I spent a good 10 minutes staring at the 2007 QB collage, then another 10 minutes writing down one of five letter grades under each picture (A, B, C, D or F). The final report card: four A's, six B's, 11 C's, 10 D's; eight F's; and then another 21 guys who could have either gotten D's or F's depending on how generous you were feeling. (I wasn't feeling that generous, so I handed out F's across the board. This is why I'd make a bad professor.) Then I thought, "Screw it, let's go all the way and separate these guys using tiers -- how grisly would that list look on paper?"
The answer: Really grisly. Like, grislier than all four "Saw" movies combined. Introducing the first-ever Powerless Poll for QBs.
What you see below is my response to the Sports Guy’s tiers and a comment on our differences in each category.
THE FRANCHISE GUYS
Sports Guy: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
Dynasty Rankings: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger
Comment: The Sports Guy whiffed in leaving Big Ben off the list of franchise guys. He’s clearly the 3rd best QB in football right now and a franchise QB in every sense of the category.
THE LEGEND
Sports Guy: Brett Favre
Dynasty Rankings: Brett Favre
Comment: I agree. He’s unique enough to merit his own category.
THE PLAYMAKERS
Sports Guy: Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson
Dynasty Rankings: Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Jay Cutler
Comment: Garrard could easily fall back down to Game Supervisor status as soon as his running game slips to less than dominant, but he’s making an awful lot of plays right now. Romo could make the leap to Franchise Guy, but I need to see how he fares without T.O. first.
THE GAME SUPERVISORS
Sports Guy: David Garrard, Jeff Garcia
Dynasty Rankings: Jeff
Comment: As established by the patron saint of game supervisors, Trent Dilfer, it is inherent in the very idea of this category that the QB can take a team with a strong defense and running game a long way. Who would fit that definition better than Chad Pennington right now? Even with the popgun arm, he’s deadly accurate, smart, and a good leader. He’s the wrong fit on a team with the overall weaknesses of the Jets, but stick him on the Vikings and they’re an instant contender in the NFC.
THE FANTASY GUYS
Sports Guy:
Dynasty Rankings: Derek Anderson, Kurt Warner, Jon Kitna
Comment: I think the Sports Guy is way off by lumping Palmer and Cutler in with Eli. Head-shakingly off in Palmer’s case. Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner are the ultimate “fantasy guys” on this list, which means they’re more valuable in fantasy leagues than they are in real life.
THE MILD UPSIDERS
Sports Guy: Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Jason Campbell
Dynasty Rankings: Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Jason Campbell
Comment: I thought about dropping
FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS
Sports Guy: Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb, Jon Kitna, Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner
Dynasty Rankings: Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb, Jake Delhomme
Comment: Good enough to take you to the playoffs, better than the alternatives, but will always fall short in taking your team the distance. I could see McNabb moving to the Playmaker category another year removed from knee surgery and in a different environment.
THE ENIGMAS
Sports Guy: Vince Young, Matt Leinart
Dynasty Rankings: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Byron Leftwich
Comment: Who is more of an enigma than Eli Manning? He’s atrocious every time I see him play, but he must have a decent game every once awhile to still be starting for the Giants. Leftwich deserved a better fate than what this season has brought him.
THE GREAT UNKNOWNS
Sports Guy: JaMarcus Russell, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn
Dynasty Rankings: JaMarcus Russell, Kevin Kolb, Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn, Drew Stanton
Comment: I think Quinn will get a shot at some point next season. Rodgers looks ready whenever Favre calls it quits. Russell has superior talent, but faces an uphill battle with his footwork and decision-making. Kolb may be the greatest unknown right now.
JUST COMPETENT ENOUGH TO KILL YOU
Sports Guy:
Dynasty Rankings: A.J. Feeley, J.P. Losman, Sage Rosenfels, Brian Griese, Damon Huard, Cleo Lemon, Gus Frerotte, Quinn Gray
Comment: I think Rosenfels is the quintessential member of this category. He’ll win a few games and put up interesting stats while covering for your starter, but in the end he’s a back-up for a reason: he’s just competent enough to kill you.
POTENTIALLY COMPETENT
Sports Guy: Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, Kellen Clemens, Kyle Boller, Matt Moore
Dynasty Rankings: Trent Edwards, Kellen Clemens, Luke McCown,
Comment: I’m separating the McCowns as I see Luke as a guy who is a lot more interesting than Josh.
TALENTED BY OSMOSIS
Sports Guy: Matt Cassel, Jim Sorgi
Dynasty Rankings: Matt Cassel, Jim Sorgi
Comment: Odd category, but OK.
FLASHES OF UPSIDE, FLOODS OF DOWNSIDE
Sports Guy: Cleo Lemon, Tarvaris Jackson, Rex Grossman, Sage Rosenfels, Brodie Croyle, Alex Smith, the McCown Brothers (Josh and Luke)
Dynasty Rankings: Tarvaris Jackson, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith, Josh McCown, Kyle Boller, Daunte Culpepper
Comment: Eli Manning almost made it into this category. I don’t know how the Sports Guy missed Boller here; he’s a perfect fit. Culpepper could be put in quite a few categories, but I think the 2007-08 version falls most accurately right here.
THE FORK-IN-THE-BACKERS
Sports Guy: Steve McNair, Trent Dilfer, Damon Huard, Vinny Testaverde, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Daunte Culpepper, Brian Griese, Byron Leftwich
Dynasty Rankings: Steve McNair, Trent Green, Trent Dilfer, Vinny Testaverde, Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington
Comment: I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Culpepper, Leftwich and Griese, but Joey Harrington has failed time and time again. He should never be given another shot to start in the NFL.
THE ONE-WEEK WONDERS
Sports Guy: Todd Collins, Shaun Hill
Dynasty Rankings: Chris Redman, Matt Moore
Comment: Both Collins and Hill have played well enough in multiple weeks---and significantly better than the other QBs on their team---to be considered game supervisors.
THE NO-WEEK WONDERS
Sports Guy: Chris Redman, Kelly Holcomb, Brock
Dynasty Rankings: Kelly Holcomb, Brock
Comment: Redman had a fantastic 2nd half against the Rams and a decent enough game against the Saints before melting down against the Bucs. The Chiefs have wasted enough time on Croyle, and the Dolphins may not even give Beck another chance.
THE PROVERBIAL F-MINUS
Sports Guy: David Carr
Dynasty Rankings: David Carr
Comment: No doubt here. I’ll be shocked if David Carr ever starts another NFL game.
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7 comments:
Big Ben does NOT belong in the same category as Brady or Manning. Those two have proven over many years they will be top quarterbacks every year.
Just look at Big Ben's QB fantasy rankings since he came into the NFL (compared to Brady and Manning in that time period):
2004- 24th (11th & 2nd)
2005- 19th (2nd & 3rd)
2006- 11th (6th & 1st)
2007- 5th (1st & 3rd)
I will happily grant you that Big Ben has shown steady improvement, and that he LOOKED CLOSE to the part of an elite quarterback this year. But he needs to improve on a 5th place ranking next year, and then maintain that for several seasons. In addition, both Brady and Manning have been the best and second best quarterbacks in fantasy football.
I think you're crowning Big Ben just a little soon.
I disagree with both you and Simmons on Phil Rivers. I think he has a ton of upside. If he had a great offensive coordinator, you might see how good he could be.
Just look where Rivers has been: stuck playing "Martyball" the last several years, until this season when he gets Norv Turner who couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag.
Give Rivers an outstanding offensive coach, with the talent the Chargers have, and watch Rivers become scary good.
Hi Ed,
There's no doubt in my mind that Big Ben is a franchise quarterback in every sense of the word. I mean, the guy had the best start to a career of any QB in history in both team success and statistical measures such as yards per attempt (one of my favorite stats), completion percentage, and quarterback rating.
Now this year, with a line which can't pass protect, he puts up 34 total TDs in 16 weeks so far and a QB rating of almost 105. That's spectacular! He's had a better season than Peyton Manning, and frankly, a better start to his career than Peyton Manning.
If you want to put Brady & Manning in a separate category, have at it. But you're going to have to come up with a new name for it because if it's a franchise guy you're looking for, then Big Ben has to be in that category. He's been vastly underrated for a long time.
Ed,
Are you watching Phil Rivers a lot this season? I've covered him in a few games, and I'm not sure I can figure out what's going on.
He's held the Chargers offense back all year, and at times he's looked a lot like David Carr falling backwards with the happy feet, the weak side arm throws, and the complete meltdown under pressure. Then, what's odd is, just a series later he's moving the team and making all the throws.
I want to see if Rivers can turn it around before I call him a guy with major upside. He's definitely holding the Chargers offense back right now, and in some games he's simply regressing.
I'm not sure Rivers can deal with defensive pressure at all, at least not in any consistent fashion. I need to see him shed the David Carr act in the face of a passrush before I start to believe in him.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Big Ben isn't a good quarterback. Just that he's not in Brady and Manning's class. Be honest: If you are drafting a QB, and Big Ben, Brady, and Manning, are all there, are you REALLY going to consider picking Big Ben before the other two?
As for Phil Rivers, I saw him last year and this year. He has taken a step backwards under Norv Turner, which is a shame. Last year, he was starting to look like a borderline franchise qb. However, I think his career can still be a thing of beauty if the Chargers will get a decent offensive coach in there.
Hi Ed,
Good conversation.
I absolutely believe Roethlisberger is in the Brady/Manning franchise QB class. He has the same amount of Super Bowl wins as Manning and had a better statistical start to his career than Brady (and in quite a few categories, better than Manning as well). He's also more physically talented than either Brady or Manning.
A large part of the battle with our peculiar "hobby" is the art of anticipation. Once you have that down, you have at least one leg up on the competition. Roethlisberger has been brilliant all season. Do you anticipate him staying at this elite Manning/Brady level for a long time? Or do you think it's a career year? I anticipate that he's stays a franchise QB for a long, long time. He's already played better than Manning this season, and he's coming off the best QB season in Steelers franchise history.
Look at what he's done this year: 34 TDs and a 104 passer rating is an absolute monster season. All done while getting sacked more than any QB in the league and lifting his team on his shoulders into the playoffs once again.
Are you talking about drafting for fantasy football? Or drafting for one NFL game? Or drafting to build a NFL franchise now? I'm taking either Brady or Manning in fantasy, I'm taking Brady for one NFL game, and I'd give serious thought to Roethlisberger in building a franchise around him.
Re: Rivers. I agree that he looked like a borderline franchise QB last year, but I also know that he's no longer the same QB for whatever reason.
He has a little Grossman/Eli in him when it comes to dealing with pressure. Not only does he shy away from pressure, he sometimes looks like he wants to fall into the fetal position complete with thumb sucking. This is the one unpardonable sin for quarterbacks as far as I'm concerned, and it's this I worry about much more than the arm strength.
I was willing to give him space to grow as a first-time starter last season, especially when it seemed like it only happened against the really good defenses. But it's a clear pattern now, and he's going to have to turn it around soon.
I'm just afraid with his throwing motion, weak arm, happy feet, and aversion to any kind of pass rush pressure, that he might be heading down the David Carr career path. Some games he morphs into Carr and other games he really battles.
Will the real Phil Rivers please stand up?
P.S. I also don't think a QB who pees his pants at the first sign of a defensive end in the backfield ought to be running his mouth to Jay Cutler. I'm with Champ Bailey on that one...
Whether drafting for fantasy football or real football, I'd still take Brady or Manning over Big Ben. Period.
As for Rivers, I'm not ready to write him off yet. If the Chargers blow it in the playoffs, and fire Norv Turner and hire a REAL head coach, I still think Rivers can turn it around.
It's hard to make comparisons between Carr and Rivers because Rivers has never had to play behind a truly bad offensive line like Carr did for years. Carr has had his career ruined.
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