By Chris Wesseling
Rotoworld.com
TIER ONE
1 Peyton Manning IND Age: 31 - Addition of Gonzalez in the slot gives him yet another weapon and future stability.
2 Carson Palmer CIN Age: 27 - Losing Henry for 8 games could take a bite out of TD numbers and consistency, but still a great QB with an outstanding offensive nucleus.
3 Tom Brady NE Age: 30 - Threw 24 TDs last season with Reche Caldwell as his best receiver. Pats add an elite redzone weapon in Moss, a playmaker in Stallworth, and a slot receiver in Welker.
4 Drew Brees NO Age: 28 - Slight concern about a sophomore slump for the Payton/Brees/Colston/Bush regime, but the addition of Meachem is a boon.
5 #Donovan McNabb PHI Age: 30 - As he showed early last season, McNabb is a tremendous weekly advantage for your fantasy team when he's healthy. Just be sure to back him up with a dependable 2nd QB.
6 Marc Bulger STL Age: 30 - Has he answered concerns about his ability to stay healthy and consistently get the ball in the endzone? He's money in yardage leagues after the Rams restocked the offense this offseason.
7 Vince Young TEN Age: 24 - Young could certainly go higher if you're drafting from scratch, but the Titans' WR corps inspires zero confidence if you're going for it all this year (as you should be).
TIER TWO
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT Age: 25 - One of my favorite dynasty league secrets is to let the other owners in the league develop my QBs and WRs for me. If you're tempted to use a high draft pick on JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, trade for Big Ben instead -- right before he hits his fantasy prime.
9 Matt Leinart ARI Age: 24 - Now that he's learned on the job and taken his year of lumps, he's ready to become a statistical stud and continue to improve.
10 Philip Rivers SD Age: 25 - Very impressive first season as starter, but I still like his future value better than his '07 value.
11 Jay Cutler DEN Age: 24 - Looked very promising at times, and no doubt he's the franchise QB in a traditionally great system. However, I can't shake the feeling that he's not out of the woods yet.
12 Jon Kitna DET Age: 35 - There's a good chance that the QBs immediately below will never put up a season like the 4000+ yards/28 TDs that Kitna is poised to produce in '07. The trick is to make sure you pair Kitna with one of those same QBs, so you'll have frontline QB production this year while hedging yourself with a seamless transition when Kitna does fall off.
TIER THREE
13 Eli Manning NYG Age: 26 - Skittish in the pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki, and still in need of a left tackle. At some point you have to come to grips with the fact that a player will never become the superstar you had envisioned when you drafted him.
14 Alex Smith SF Age: 23 - I like the marked improvement Smith showed overall last season, but his 2nd half funk was a bit disconcerting. While the offseason talent influx is promising, I think Smith is at least another year away from comfortable starter.
15 Byron Leftwich JAX Age: 27 - Not exactly inspired offensive pick-ups this offseason by the Jags, but Leftwich is still my easy pick for Comeback Player of the Year. Could easily be ranked higher as the perfect buy-low candidate at QB.
16 Tony Romo DAL Age: 27 - I need to see him do it again. Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon, and we'll see a more earthbound Tony Romo this season.
17 #Matt Hasselbeck SEA Age: 32 - This offense screams "past its prime." First the loss of Hutchinson and redzone specialist Jurevicius, then Alexander and Walter Jones lose a step, now the most prolific WR of Hass' career is shown the door. Not likely to be sniffing the heights of '05 anytime soon.
TIER FOUR
18 JaMarcus Russell OAK Age: 22 - The laws of supply and demand tell me not to draft a QB prospect this high when I know somebody will trade me a productive QB for a lot less.
19 #Michael Vick ATL Age: 27 - Still waiting to hear the outcome of the dog ring scandal, but there's no doubt his value has plummeted due to the inherent risk. Now talk of possible jail time as well as the possibility that the Falcons will cut ties with him.
20 Jason Campbell WAS Age: 25 - Will Campbell ever be a fantasy difference maker? He's mobile, but not a prolific runner. He can be fairly accurate at times, but he's not your prototypical pure pocket passer. The question with Campbell is if he'll play well enough for Snyder to resist the continual urge to bring in a big name QB to replace him.
21 Matt Schaub HOU Age: 26 - One of the keys to fantasy football is to identify stars before they reach must start status. Is Schaub one of those players? I doubt it, but we'll find out for sure soon enough.
22 Rex Grossman CHI Age: 27 - The Bears have decided they need a playmaker at the QB position. Unfortunately, in selling their soul for big play potential at that position, they've been left with a turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase.
23 J.P. Losman BUF Age: 26 - Is it wise to assume that a player who drastically improved in the 2nd half of the season will produce at that level for a full season? It's probably something that should be evaluated on an individual basis, and I think Losman has already hit his ceiling.
24 Brady Quinn CLE Age: 23 - It shouldn't take much to steal the job from Anderson and Frye, but it likely won't happen until later in the season.
25 Tarvaris Jackson MIN Age: 24 - Clearly not ready, but he has played well in spurts. You could argue that he has more upside than several QBs ahead of him.
TIER FIVE
26 Daunte Culpepper FA Age: 30 - His immediate future is looking awfully bleak, but I think it's foolish to count someone like Culpepper out when his chances of career resurrection are being written off by everybody. I'd rather stash him than carry a low upside backup.
27 Brett Favre GB Age: 38 - Still very startable most weeks, but impact help via trade or draft would have been nice.
28 Jake Delhomme CAR Age: 32 - I like him as a value pick-up in a bounce back year, but there's no doubt his dynasty value took a severe hit with the Carr signing. Not only is he no longer the franchise QB, but he's also a threat to be pulled any time he has a bad game.
29 Chad Pennington NYJ Age: 31 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens in 2007 -- barring injury of course. I'm not using him as a starter, so I'd bypass him to go with more upside in my back-up spot.
30 Kellen Clemens NYJ Age: 24 -Dependant on Pennington's situation; may be at least another year away.
31 Trent Green MIA Age: 37 - Was never the same after his week one concussion last season. How will he fare with a subpar offensive line after years behind the best line in football?
32 David Carr CAR Age: 28 - Dependant on Delhomme's situation, but he's interesting insurance. Likely to get a shot to be Carolina's next QB at some point.
TIER SIX
33 Drew Stanton DET Age: 23 - A lot of "if"s with this QB, but his situation is certainly intriguing.
34 Brodie Croyle KC Age: 24 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't believe he'll outplay Huard in the pre-season. Even if he does take the field in week one, this Chiefs offense isn't the one you remember from the Vermeil/Saunders days.
35 Aaron Rodgers GB Age: 23 - Green Bay insists he's still the future, but he's not likely to see the field for another year. For the past couple of seasons, he may have been the one player whose value is entirely dependant on roster size. Do you want to carry him all the way through another season?
36 Damon Huard KC Age: 34 - Was presumed to be the favorite for playing time when he re-signed. Croyle is making waves, but my money is on Huard receiving the bulk of the playing time.
37 John Beck MIA Age: 26 - Green acquisition leaves him with no advantage versus other non-1st rounders from the '07 draft.
38 Steve McNair BAL Age: 34 - No longer startable in his 2nd year with Baltimore, but this warrior could have one last fight in him.
39 Kevin Kolb PHI Age: 23 - Stash and hope.
TIER SEVEN
40 Seneca Wallace SEA Age: 27 - Doesn't look like the future in Seattle, but could get a shot for someone else by next season at the latest.
41 Trent Edwards BUF Age: 24 - Buffalo was still unsure of Losman as late as last year's bye week. Has he really come that far?
42 Patrick Ramsey DEN Age: 28 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured.
43 David Garrard JAX Age: 29 - Why would the Jags want him around to tempt Del Rio into another misguided QB controversy?
44 Jeff Garcia TB Age: 37 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms. Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after three piss poor seasons, and the Bucs offense is still woefully lacking in playmakers.
45 Brian Griese CHI Age: 32 - Won't get a chance to start the season in an open competition, but Grossman could crater any week.
46 Troy Smith BAL Age: 23 - Was on par with Byron Leftwich and Shane Battier as the best collegiate "leaders" of recent memory. Unfortunately, that's a tenuous quality to bank on for impact NFL and fantasy success. With McNair winding down, we could find out fairly quickly if Smith has a future.
47 Charlie Frye CLE Age: 26 - He's not going to go all Drew Brees on the Browns and make them forget about Quinn for a couple of years.
48 Matt Cassel NE Age: 25 - Much speculation that he'll be gifted a starting job in a trade the next couple of seasons, but that appears unfounded to me.
49 Derek Anderson CLE Age: 24 - Could play his way into the starting role this pre-season, but you won't want to bank on him even if the Browns decide they do.
50 Quinn Gray JAX Age: 28 - Would have liked to compete elsewhere, but Jags' 2nd round tender scared teams away.
TIER ONE
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD Age: 28 - Truly an unfair advantage, but keep in mind last year was his only season as the #1 ranked RB.
2 Steven Jackson STL Age: 24 - He's not going to catch 90 passes again, but a few more trips to the end zone may make him the #1 fantasy commodity.
3 Larry Johnson KC Age: 27 - Caution flags are out as contract issues are rearing their ugly head. Not to be overlooked are heavy carries, O-Line's atrophy, and offense not as explosive as Vermeil/Saunders/Priest days. But penciling in 15-20 TDs can make up for a lot.
4 Frank Gore SF Age: 24 - Looks like a young Ahman Green - a much more powerful runner than commonly believed, break-away speed, underrated receiver; if you run into one of those owners looking to deal Gore now, pounce on him.
5 Adrian Peterson MIN Age: 22 - I have him up there with Marshall Faulk and Bo Jackson as the most talented runners to come into the league since I started playing fantasy football. It won't take long for this difference maker to shove Chester Taylor aside.
6 Reggie Bush NO Age: 22 - Came on like a freight train in the 2nd half of the season, and it only gets better from here. Obviously a much more valuable asset in PPR leagues.
TIER TWO
7 Ronnie Brown MIA Age: 25 - Ronnie Brown is like Steven Jackson before him. The size, the talent, the speed, the pass catching ability -- it's all there. There are many things wrongs with this Dolphins offense, but Ronnie Brown isn't one of them. He's ready to bust out if he can a little help from his QB and O-Line.
8 Laurence Maroney NE Age: 22 - The Pats could have muddled the picture by acquiring another talented runner via draft or free agency. Instead, they've added receiving weapons to spread the offense and create space in the running game. This is an explosive RB in an equally explosive offense.
9 Joseph Addai IND Age: 24 - The Colts let Rhodes walk and failed to add a tandem partner for Addai in the draft. Now he has to stay injury-free for 16 games.
10 Willie Parker PIT Age: 26 - Will he be a perennial Top 10 guy, or was last year as good as it gets?
11 Brian Westbrook PHI Age: 28 - Still very valuable especially in PPR leagues, but Hunt's presence is definitely a concern inside the 10 yard line. Will we ignore the retirement talk after Tiki proved it's not always a bluff?
12 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX Age: 22 - There is no concern over Reggie Bush's future production sharing carries with Deuce, yet the hand-wringing and disbelief is endless with MJD. Not enough fans got to see MJD play last season. He basically had the rookie season that matched even the most optimistic expectations for Bush's rookie production. MJD did a better Bush impersonation than Bush himself did. Pretty impressive, no?
13 Willis McGahee BAL Age: 26 - The Ravens were the best-case scenario for McGahee: he suits their style very well, will be fully utilized, and should be kept in line by strong leadership. I like him to regain a lot of value in '07.
14 Clinton Portis WAS Age: 26 - Just too many questions right now -- and frankly, his body of work in WAS doesn't hold a candle to his body of work in DEN. There is still a lot to like here, and the questions are more about situation than talent, but the questions are of the nagging variety.
15 Rudi Johnson CIN Age: 28 - Non-factor as a receiver, ypc down in '06, starting to slip or poor line play? How long will Rudi be able to hold off these high RB draft picks? Football players and outlaws are held to a different standard. Slip even a bit, and next thing you know you're not the fastest gun in the West anymore. You got young punks coming along trying to take you down on your own turf :boxing:. Just ask Chester Taylor.
16 Shaun Alexander SEA Age: 30 - Value is seeping: complete non-factor in the passing game, 3.6 YPC in '06, O-Line slipping, injury risk, a lot of tough carries under his belt, and the history of 30+ year old RBs suggests he'll have a very hard time topping 1250 yards again.
TIER THREE
17 Cedric Benson CHI Age: 24 - The Cedric Benson era has finally arrived. He's in a plum situation, but keep in mind the high knucklehead factor and the recent string of injuries.
18 Cadillac Williams TB Age: 25 - My own golden rule is to let everyone else rely on last year's stats while I judge the talent and situation; accordingly, I'd be willing to give Caddy a mulligan on his '06 season if his situation wasn't such a mess -- still splitting 3rd down and goal-line work with scrappy veterans and still stuck in a lifeless offense.
19 DeAngelo Williams CAR Age: 24 - I think I've been worried too much about splitting carries with Foster. I mean we're talking about DeShaun Foster. Surely the new coordinator will play his best offensive players…right?
20 Marshawn Lynch BUF Age: 21 - Obviously Buffalo's most talented back, but will he lose goal-line work to Wright? Will A-Train steal a couple of series each game?
21 Travis Henry DEN Age: 28 - There are always RBBC concerns with the whims of Shanny; however, it is a good offense and Henry's contract bodes well for a heavier load the next couple of seasons. Bottom line: how confident are you that Henry's value won't be run off in a ditch again?
22 Thomas Jones NYJ Age: 29 - Won't be much of a factor in the passing game with Washington around, but at least he won't have to constantly look over his shoulder at Benson. What's a 29 year old two-down back worth in dynasty leagues?
TIER FOUR
23 Edgerrin James ARI Age: 29 - Can he be forgiven for last year's collapse? The Cards have added help on the O-Line, but I still believe Edge is running on fumes and unlikely to see the endzone often.
24 Brandon Jacobs NYG Age: 25 - Both the Droughns trade and the draft were a vote of confidence for Jacobs, but can he fill Tiki's shoes?
25 Deuce McAllister NO Age: 28 - Ran well last year and should still be in position to score often, but was last season's production the best case scenario from here on out?
26 Michael Turner SD Age: 25 - Roster decoration for now for '07, but he should land a starting gig next season.
27 Ahman Green HOU Age: 30 - Takes the money in Houston and still has some life left in his legs. How will he fare in a traditionally sub-par Texans offense?
28 Jerious Norwood ATL Age: 24 - It was commonly assumed that Atlanta would add a more physical RB this offseason, but the draft came and went without a threat to the Norwood/Dunn tandem. I still see Norwood's future as less than an every down back, but he should get the opportunity this to make or break his fantasy career.
29 Marion Barber III DAL Age: 24 - Tough to rank a part-time player higher with Julius Jones being severely overlooked and certainly not out of the picture yet. Don't expect '06 TD production again in '07.
30 Tatum Bell DET Age: 26 - Ultimate high risk/high reward, but trying to keep the faith is entering Sisyphus territory. On a positive note, if Jones starts the season on the PUP, Bell is going to have a ton of space to roam free in that explosive Lions offense. Don't be surprised if his value spikes after the first couple of weeks of the season.
31 #Kevin Jones DET Age: 25 - Future is just too murky right now with injury and Bell/Duckett acquisitions. Likely to start the season on the PUP list, and may have a hard time ever shaking the injury prone label.
32 Julius Jones DAL Age: 26 - Early indications from the new coaching staff are positive, but Barber is likely to stay highly involved as well.
33 LenDale White TEN Age: 22 - Obvious maturity and dedication issues here. But of the three Titans RBs, FatDale is the premier talent as well as the best bet to build dynasty value. 34 Jamal Lewis CLE Age: 28 - Lewis will get a chance to be a running game ballast for a season while the passing game finds itself. Still, a one year deal with the Browns in a dynasty league doesn't bode well for stable value.
TIER FIVE
35 Brandon Jackson GB Age: 22 - Is he the future? We don't know yet, but word out of Packers camp is that he will at least split carries with Morency.
36 Lamont Jordan OAK 28 - He's fallen from sure-fire Top 10 to a questionable Top 35 in less than a year. Another data point on the dangers of placing a higher priority on the most recent season's numbers as opposed to talent and situation. Or, if you prefer, last year's Chester Taylor.
37 Vernand Morency GB Age: 27 - Brandon Jackson was better news than for his value than Marshawn Lynch would have been, but Morency is still unlikely to have the job to himself.
38 Ladell Betts WAS Age: 28 - Could be ranked a little higher based on last year's impressive showing, but he's ultimately a back-up.
39 Kenny Irons CIN Age: 24 - His receiving skills need major work, but he's supposed to compliment Rudi Johnson? How does that work? He looks more like Rudi's successor and insurance policy rather than another passing down weapon for the Bengals.
40 #Michael Bush OAK Age: 23 - Obvious health concerns and questions about his bulk, but he could have the opportunity by '08 to prove he was a draft-day steal.
41 Chester Taylor MIN Age: 28 - Minnesota figures to run the ball a ton this season; regardless, Taylor takes a drastic tumble from every week starter to plain old unstartable.
42 Chris Brown TEN Age: 26 - May start the year as the lead back, but the lack of league-wide interest is an indication of low dynasty value. Still questions about his running style, toughness, opportunity, and especially an ability to keep the job long enough to sustain any true dynasty value.
43 Fred Taylor JAX Age: 31 - Don't go penciling in last year's numbers.
44 Chris Henry TEN Age: 22 - Tempting measurable assets, but thoroughly unimpressive track record in college. Failed to show enough to prevent Brown's re-signing and still not as talented a runner as White.
45 #Dominic Rhodes OAK Age: 28 - May have had a chance to leapfrog Jordan, but the suspension hurts.
46 DeShaun Foster CAR Age: 27 - I know what Foster offers, and I want none of it.
47 Mike Bell DEN 24 - Clear #2 to Henry now, but could he steal short-yardage and 3rd down work?
48 Reuben Droughns NYG Age: 29 - Will take the lesser share of carries with Brandon Jacobs.
TIER SIX
49 Tony Hunt PHI Age: 21 - Likely to take over and improve upon Buckhalter's role.
50 Antonio Pittman NO Age: 21 - Deuce's replacement? You'll likely have to wait awhile unless an injury occurs.
51 Lorenzo Booker MIA Age: 23 - Looks like a 3rd down back, but players of similar skill sets are being used much more effectively than they were just a few years ago.
52 Leon Washington NYJ Age: 25 - Won't do much more than eat into Thomas Jones' value as a very good 3rd down back.
53 Warrick Dunn ATL Age: 32 - On the downside but likely to see plenty of action again in '07. Still has his uses in non-TD heavy leagues, but you don't want to rely on him weekly anymore.
54 Adrian Peterson CHI Age: 28 - A Benson injury away from major playing time -- not an unlikely scenario
55 Brian Leonard STL Age: 23 - Not enough balls to go around in STL.
56 Kolby Smith KC Age: 22 - How likely is an LJ holdout?
57 Dwayne Wright BUF Age: 24 - Good possibility to split some carries with Lynch and possibly take over goal-line duties.
58 Garrett Wolfe CHI Age: 23 - The Warrick Dunn comparisons are out already, but let's not forget how talented Dunn was in his prime.
59 Michael Bennett KC Age: 29 - The usual off-season talk of getting him more involved, but he won't carry the load if LJ misses time.
TIER SEVEN
60 Mewelde Moore MIN Age: 25 - Here's a player in desperate need of a change of scenery. Moore Would make a smart pick-up for a team like the Ravens, Browns, or Seahawks as a primo receiving weapon out of the backfield. Remember that October a couple of years ago when he was one of the most productive backs in the NFL? What happened?
61 Musa Smith BAL Age: 25 - Talented, liked by Billick, but just too injury-prone.
62 #Chris Perry CIN Age: 25 - Obviously no longer seen as Rudi's heir-apparent, his injuries could leave him on the sidelines to start the season and, even worse, without a job down the road.
63 Sammy Morris NE 30 - It will be interesting to see how his talents are used by Pats.
64 Michael Robinson SF Age: 24 - Up-and-down rookie season, but he impressed at times.
65 T.J. Duckett DET Age: 26 - Vulture alert!
TIER ONE
1 Steve Smith CAR Age: 28 - No obvious choice at #1, but Smith is still the most consistently unstoppable. The Carr signing could be more than slightly worrisome as Delhomme has habitually locked onto his best WR.
2 Larry Fitzgerald ARI Age: 24 - Good young QB, heavily targeted, a great possession WR as well as a mega-redzone threat.
3 Chad Johnson CIN Age: 29 - With more consistency, he could make the leap to #1.
4 Calvin Johnson DET Age: 22 - This is the highest I've ranked a rookie WR since Moss at #1 in '98. He has the talent to top this list sooner rather than later.
5 Andre Johnson HOU Age: 26 - Addition of Schaub can only help. Johnson has long needed a QB who can maximize his obvious strengths and improvement could bring back the early '06 dominance.
6 Roy Williams DET Age: 25 - It's not unusual for an offense to support 2 stud WRs, and Martz' is certainly one that can.
7 Lee Evans BUF Age: 26 - Evans has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat. He might be the closest thing to Steve Smith in the AFC.
8 Torry Holt STL Age: 31 - Holt's 178 targets in '06 were most he's seen in three years. That will likely go down with Bennett, McMichael, and Leonard on board.
9 Reggie Wayne IND Age: 28 - Steady, but could lose a few looks to Gonzalez.
TIER TWO
10 Marques Colston NO Age: 24 - Should avoid the pitfalls of a sophomore slump with the combo of Brees quarterbacking and Payton masterminding the offense.
11 Anquan Boldin ARI Age: 27 - Talented and productive, but two areas of concern: he doesn't get in the end zone nearly enough, and he practically disappeared in the 2nd half of the season.
12 Javon Walker DEN Age: 29 - Hit-and-miss with Cutler, but gets in the end zone more than most.
13 Marvin Harrison IND Age: 35 - Undervalued each of the last three years because of age concerns, but this is the year, at 35, that he'll be over-ranked after topping all '06 WR in production.
14 Randy Moss NE Age: 30 - Life is obviously fair. If anyone deserved the old "outhouse to penthouse" treatment, it was Randy Moss... right? A now motivated Moss is running 4.29 forties and goes from a disastrous, soul-draining operation led by the inept Art Shell, Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks to football Valhalla with Brady and Belichik.
15 Terrell Owens DAL Age: 33 - Produces when he plays, but becoming more and more of a gamble by the year. Age and unreliability are two alarming negatives in dynasty leagues.
16 Hines Ward PIT Age: 31 - Drastically underrated year in and year out, but he has three Top 10 finishes in the last five years.
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TIER THREE
17 Donald Driver GB Age: 32 - Targeted a whopping 171 times in '06, and still a threat to finish Top 10 again in '07 with Favre back. But at 32, how does the future look without Favre?
18 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN Age: 30 - Third most talented WR on his team, but still highly productive in a great situation. I would not count on a repeat of his '06 career year.
19 Plaxico Burress NYG Age: 30 - High knucklehead factor and tends to disappear at times which makes him borderline unreliable.
20 Santana Moss WAS Age: 28 - I worry about him more in dynasty leagues. I don't know how lucky I feel about Santana Moss, and that's really the bottom line: Do I want a roll of the dice every year as my #1 or #2 WR?
21 Reggie Brown PHI Age: 26 - Brown was fantastic with Stallworth out of the lineup last season. As long as McNabb is healthy, Brown as the #1 WR in Philly is going to produce
22 Braylon Edwards CLE Age: 24 - With Winslow a gigantic question mark and no help in the draft, Edwards basically is the Cleveland receiving game. Unfortunately, he's going to have Derek Anderson, Charlie Frye, or a rookie throwing him the ball.
23 Laveranues Coles NYJ Age: 29 - I like his game, but I can't move him higher because he doesn't get in the end zone.
24 Mark Clayton BAL Age: 25 - Came on strong in 2nd half to overtake Mason as the #1 WR in Baltimore. Improvement in QB play could help Clayton make the leap to a reliable #2 fantasy WR.
25 Chris Chambers MIA Age: 29 - Still a gamebreaking talent and redzone weapon, but he's been hurt by inconsistent hands and atrocious QB play. If Trent Green is over the hill, he will still be the best passer Chambers has ever played with.
26 Darrell Jackson SF Age: 28 - Even if D-Jax didn't owe a large portion of his production to Holmgren's system and Hasselbeck's play, only the truly elite WRs can typically withstand a significant downtick in production as they move to a new team.
TIER FOUR
27 Vincent Jackson SD Age: 24 - Becoming a redzone monster and will take over for McCardell in '07. But how many targets to expect?
28 Santonio Holmes PIT Age: 23 - Came on strong to end the season, looks great after the catch. Some concern about his role inside the redzone.
29 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ Age: 25 - Career year? How much do I value a NFL team's #2 WR if I don't believe he'll make the leap to #1?
30 Dwayne Bowe KC Age: 23 - Offense doesn't exactly inspire confidence, but it won't take long before he tops the WR depth chart in KC.
31 Bernard Berrian CHI Age: 26 - Arrived on the scene in '07 as a deepthreat, passing Muhammad to become Bears' top fantasy WR.
32 D.J. Hackett SEA Age: 26 - Not only was he often the most productive WR on the field when he was in the game, but he's also put up very intriguing catch percentages in his short history. I like his chances of leapfrogging Branch to become SEA's most valuable fantasy WR.
33 Greg Jennings GB Age: 24 - What got lost in the Moss-to-GB rumors is the fact that Jennings had a very promising start to his NFL career. The Pack has shown their faith in Jennings as the clear #2 WR and, really, why not?
34 Matt Jones JAX Age: 24 - I think Jones will make huge strides in what will be a make or break season for his career.
35 #Robert Meachem NO Age: 23 - First rounder must beat out Devery Henderson to take over #2 WR role in explosive offense.
36 Ted Ginn Jr. MIA Age: 22 - Game breaking skills would have had him higher on the list if not for the foot injury and usage questions.
37 Brandon Marshall DEN Age: 23 - Risky ranking: long on potential, but has the talent to be an impact WR.
38 Kevin Curtis PHI Age: 29 - Great fit in Philly. Far from the pesky, possession WR many expect, he's actually one of the faster wideouts in the league.
39 Deion Branch SEA Age: 28 - The most overrated fantasy WR of the past five seasons, has never had more than one 100 yard game in a season - nor has he had a 1000 yard season.
40 Drew Bennett STL Age: 29 - Joins a good situation in STL, playing slot for a year then Bruce's replacement. His value should climb in '08 if you can hold onto for a year.
41 Ronald Curry OAK Age: 28 - Closed out '06 like he closed out '04. Averaged over eight catches per game in the last four.
42 Joey Galloway TB Age: 35 - Age a concern at almost 36, but still eminently startable if he can get steady QB play.
43 Donte Stallworth NE 26 - Quite a steep fall from much ballyhooed massive Caldwell/Gaffney upgrade at go-to WR all the way down to just another option in the passing game in one weekend.
44 Brandon Jones TEN Age: 25 - It's ugly at WR in Tennessee. Afternoon talk show ugly. On the bright side, the Titans' failure to upgrade means they're counting on Jones to be the man.
TIER FIVE
45 Dwayne Jarrett CAR Age: 21 - Looks like he'll step right into Keyshawn's role -- and probably play it better than the '06 slow motion version of Key.
46 Anthony Gonzalez IND Age: 23 - Ideal situation for his Gonzalez' development, but what are the chances he receives startable value before Harrison retires?
47 Sidney Rice MIN Age: 21 - Could he be the new #1 in Minnesota's offense? What's that worth?
48 Devery Henderson NO Age: 25 - Won't be asked to fill Horn's shoes after the Meachem pick. Even if he ends up the #2 WR to start the year, Meachem is the better talent and figures to steal much of Henderson's future value.
49 Reggie Williams JAX Age: 24 - Incremental improvements every year, but can't seem to put it all together.
50 Terry Glenn DAL Age: 33 - Knees? Age? Future? Let someone else deal with him.
51 Demetrius Williams BAL Age: 24 - Impressive as a 3rd WR, may start by 2008.
52 #Chris Henry CIN Age: 24 - Always a risk for suspension, but a no-doubt top 20 talent if he can stay clean.
53 Craig Davis SD Age: 22 - Not likely to impact San Diego's offense as a rookie, but could be Vincent Jackson's running mate for the future.
TIER SIX
54 Joe Horn ATL Age: 35 - A extra-motivated Horn is a good signing for Atlanta -- if he stays healthy, which is not a given at age 35.
55 Isaac Bruce STL Age: 34 - I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him weekly at age 35. Bennett's arrival drains a little value.
56 Mark Bradley CHI Age: 25 - Healthy now, impressive in flashes, will see the field more in '07.
57 Troy Willliamson MIN Age: 24 - Still very young, can he turn it around?
58 Jacoby Jones HOU Age: 23 - Has a chance to jump into Houston's #2 WR role if he can beat out Kevin Walter and McCardell's carcass.
59 Jerry Porter OAK Age: 29 - Clean slate with Kiffin, but has Curry overtaken him in the pecking order?
60 Muhsin Muhammad CHI Age: 34 - Age becoming a factor, but could still produce WR3 numbers with a good QB
61 Derrick Mason BAL Age: 33 - Slipping and doesn't sniff the endzone, but still has value in PPR leagues.
62 Jason Hill SF Age: 22 - Draftnick darling, could be a 3rd round steal.
63 Maurice Stovall TB Age: 22 - Can he steal a good portion of Michael Clayton's playing time?
64 Michael Clayton TB Age: 25 - Living off rookie season, can he get some value back in '07?
65 Mike Walker JAX Age: 22 - Will the opportunity be there from the beginning?
66 Hank Baskett PHI Age: 25 - Impressive pre-season, even more impressive in Week 17 mop-up time. Value deflates a bit with Curtis signing.
67 Steve Smith NYG Age: 22 - The heir to Amani Toomer's role.
68 Wes Welker NE Age: 26 - For what it took to get him, Welker could play an interesting role in Pats' offense.
69 Mike Furrey DET Age: 30 - If you were counting on Furrey being startable again this year, that's nobody's fault but your own.
70 Paul Williams TEN Age: 23 - The opportunity is there and, by all accounts, so is the talent. But there are a lot of reservations about his character and dedication.
TIER ONE
1 Antonio Gates SD Age: 27 - Head and shoulders above the crowd.
2 Todd Heap BAL Age: 27 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries or poor QB play.
3 Vernon Davis SF Age: 23 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch.
4 Tony Gonzalez KC Age: 31 - At almost 32, it may be time for you to consider move him in a trade. Could be top-notch for another year or two, but KC's offense scares me a bit
5 Jeremy Shockey NYG Age: 27 - Up and down with Eli's roller coaster play and constant injuries.
6 Chris Cooley WAS Age: 25 - Steady production and chic pick to make some noise in '07.
7 Ben Watson NE Age: 26 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, but needs consistency. There were times last year where he looked like he was ready to make the leap to elite TE, but there were also times where his hands and instincts just failed him.
8 Alge Crumpler ATL Age: 29 - Keeps producing, but coming on age 30 and questions about role in offense sans Vick.
9 Jason Witten DAL Age: 25 - Must find the end zone more often.
10 #Kellen Winslow II CLE Age: 24 - Microfracture surgery is no joke. What kind of player will he be after the surgery? How long will it take to get there? He's aging quickly, and his future is very uncertain.
TIER TWO
11 L.J. Smith PHI Age: 27 - Not overly exciting but produces most weeks. Free agent after this season.
12 Heath Miller PIT Age: 24 - Impressive rookie season, but disappointing production in '06. Will Miller bounce back to rookie form this year?
13 #Tony Scheffler DEN Age: 24 - Future looks bright with late season great rapport with Cutler, but will the Graham acquisition hurt his production?
14 Dallas Clark IND Age: 28 - Dominates the playoffs then disappoints in the next regular season.
15 Owen Daniels HOU Age: 24 - The Texans' second best receiving option should see a statistical boost with improved QB play.
16 Ben Troupe TEN Age: 25 - Great buy low candidate coming off a disappointing season.
17 Randy McMichael STL Age: 28 - Yet another weapon for an impressive-looking Rams offense, but I doubt he'll see the ball as much as he did in Miami.
TIER THREE
18 Greg Olsen CHI Age: 22 - Outside of truly exceptional talents like Gonzalez, Heap, Shockey and Vernon Davis, I stay away from rookie tight ends. Olsen is not likely to be startable for at least a couple of years.
19 Zach Miller OAK Age: 21 - Could have the opportunity to step in right away, but young tight ends are extremely unreliable.
20 Marcedes Lewis JAX Age: 23 - Wrighster, Wiggins and a disappointing rookie season, but the talent is still there.
21 Alex Smith TB Age: 25 - Has yet to make the leap to dependable starter and now has to contend with another obstacle in Jerramy Stevens.
22 Daniel Graham DEN Age: 28 - He blocks so Scheffler can catch.
23 Desmond Clark CHI Age: 30 - Won't match career year production at age 30 with Olsen on board.
24 Eric Johnson NO Age: 28 - Extremely injury-prone and doesn't get in the endzone, but he's found himself in a great situation to produce.
25 Jeff King CAR Age: 23 - New offensive coordinator vows to get the tight end more involved, and this is his man. King is a more talented pass catcher than commonly believed.
TIER ONE
1 Adam Vinatieri IND Age: 34 - As good as any kicker in the league, plus the Colts are always a great offense in a dome stadium
2 Nate Kaeding SD Age: 25 - Remembered by many for two key playoff misses, but he owns the highest career percentage on this list and operates in a great young offense.
3 Jeff Wilkins STL Age: 35 - Very reliable, explosive offense, dome stadium
4 Shayne Graham CIN Age: 29 - Between 83-88% each of the past four seasons in a very good offense.
TIER TWO
5 Mike Nugent NYJ Age: 25 - Took him a year of adjustment, but it's on now. Nugent should be one of the league's elite kickers for years.
6 Stephen Gostkowski NE Age: 23 - Showed a lot of improvement from the beginning of season to the playoffs, and the Pats offense is much more explosive this year.
7 Neil Rackers ARI Age: 31 - Strong leg, but almost all of his misses were 50+ yards in '06.
8 Robbie Gould CHI Age: 24 - Likely over his head last season, but he's better than average.
9 Jason Elam DEN Age: 37 - Still reliable, though not quite as strong.
10 David Akers PHI Age: 32 - Accuracy has slipped with nagging injuries, but I think he'll bounce back in '07.
11 Jason Hanson DET Age: 37 - Plays indoors, and this Lions offense is going to put up a lot of points.
12 Josh Brown SEA Age: 28 - Penchant for game winners, but just a notch below on accuracy and consistency.
13 Matt Stover BAL Age: 39 - There's not a more reliable field goal kicker in the league, but how good will the Ravens offense be in '07?
14 Josh Scobee JAX Age: 25 - Hit on an impressive 14 of 18 from 40-49 yards last season.
TIER THREE
15 Olindo Mare NO Age: 34 - I would definitely gamble on his accuracy returning with an explosive offense in a dome. But make sure you back yourself up with someone reliable if Mare is your first kicker.
16 Jeff Reed PIT Age: 28 - Heinz is where kickers go to die, but Reed has been pretty consistent throughout his career.
17 John Kasay CAR Age: 37 - Reliable kicker, but CAR's offense has taken a step back
18Rian Lindell BUF Age: 30 - Poster boy for the state of NFL kicking: it takes a couple of years of adjustment before reliability sets in. Lindell has quietly been an extremely reliable kicker the past three seasons.
19 Ryan Longwell MIN Age: 33 - Not quite as accurate as he used to be; dome stadium but subpar offense
20 Jay Feely MIA Age: 31 - Between 78-85% the past three seasons, but I'm leery of MIA's offensive production.
21 Rob Bironas TEN Age: 29 - Sitting in the high 70s on accuracy; inconsistent from 40-49 last year.
TIER FOUR
22 Martin Gramatica DAL Age: 31 - Most potential for high-scoring offense in this group, but also far and away the most likely to implode.
23 Joe Nedney SF Age: 34 - Count on average production.
24 Sebastian Janikowski OAK Age: 29 - The worst kicker in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, but I get the feeling he can turn it on at anytime.
25 Lawrence Tynes NYG Age: 29 - New favorite to kick for the Giant.s
26 Justin Medlock KC Age: 23 - Tynes' exit clears the way for Medlock to take over.
27 Mason Crosby GB Age: 23 - Will get a chance to take Dave Rayner's job, but a rookie in Lambau will have trouble with consistency.
28 Phil Dawson CLE Age: 32 - Accurate kicker coming off a down year in a poor offense.
TIER FIVE
29 Matt Bryant TB Age: 32 - Not the strongest leg, but he's been accurate lately in a poor offense.
30 Shaun Suisham WAS Age: 25 - Acquitted himself fine with Redskins, but wasn't tested much beyond 40.
31 Kris Brown HOU Age: 30 - Inaccurate and always in a poor offense.
32 Dave Rayner GB Age: 24 - Can he hold off Crosby?
33 Josh Huston NYG Age: 25 - Count on an adjustment period if he upsets Tynes.
34 Billy Cundiff ATL Age: 27 - Just not accurate enough. Falcons will have Morten Andersen or John Carney on speed dial.
35 Aaron Elling ATL Age: 29 - See Billy Cundiff.
TIER ONE
1 Bears CHI - Best returner in the league plus healthy return of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown.
2 Chargers SD - Playmaker in Merriman, excellent defensive front and a great young nucleus.
3 Patriots NE - Addition of Adalius Thomas and Meriweather plus Welker as return man.
4 Ravens BAL - Addition of Figurs as return man, but loss of Adalius Thomas plus some key defenders are likely to lose a step.
5 Jaguars JAX - Great foundation in the front seven plus playmakers Mathis and Nelson in secondary.
TIER TWO
6 Seahawks SEA
7 Packers GB
8 Panthers CAR
9 Dolphins MIA
10 Eagles PHI
11 Steelers PIT
12 Raiders OAK
13 Broncos DEN
14 Jets NYJ
15 Cowboys DAL
TIER THREE
16 Vikings MIN
17 Rams STL
18 Falcons ATL
19 Colts IND
20 Giants NYG
21 Cardinals ARI
22 49ers SF
23 Chiefs KC
24 Saints NO
25 Bengals CIN
26 Titans TEN
27 Bills BUF
28 Buccaneers TB
29 Browns CLE
30 Redskins WAS
31 Lions DET
32 Texans HOU
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