Below is the offseason WR/TE landscape from Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
FA Preview: The Receivers
We've previewed the available players at quarterback, running back , and defensive backs this off-season. Now it's time for the pass-catchers.
The crop of possible wideouts and tight ends who may be available is relatively thin. Donte' Stallworth, Drew Bennett, and Jerramy Stevens are the most consistent players with starting experience. Kevin Curtis, Ashley Lelie, Daniel Graham and Bobby Engram are next, and then the list falls off a cliff.
The list of teams looking for receivers finishes our rankings at the bottom.
Unrestricted free agents
1. Donte' Stallworth, Eagles - While he struggled with injuries in 2006, Stallworth has matured and showed consistency as a deep threat the last two seasons. He's a solid number two receiver who fits well in a West Coast offense. The Vikings are a likely suitor. The Patriots are a darkhorse.
2. Drew Bennett, Titans - Getting open isn't the problem. Catching the ball consistently is. While Bennett isn't polished, he's a proven starter with explosive ability. He's productive, a prototype No. 2 receiver. New England, San Francisco, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Jacksonville could all show interest.
3. Kevin Curtis, Rams - Curtis was highly productive in St. Louis when given the chance to start in 2005. He has great speed and knows Mike Martz's offense. The Lions should go hard after him.
4. Ashley Lelie, Falcons - After a lost season in Atlanta, Lelie is hitting the market at the wrong time. While there are perceptions he's soft, he's one of the most consistent deep threats in the league. At worst, he could make an explosive number three receiver. His age is a bonus.
5. Bobby Engram, Seahawks - One of the most underrated players of the last five years, Engram is content to effectively fill the role of a slot receiver. He would fit well in New England and Philadelphia. Seattle is unlikely to keep him because of a logjam at the position.
6. Travis Taylor, Vikings- The definition of replacement-level. He was Minnesota's most consistent wideout last year, but they probably won't keep him because of a legal mishap.
7. Dennis Northcutt, Browns - Once a productive slot receiver and return man, Northcutt had a case of the drops in 2006. He'll make a roster though.
8. Bobby Wade, Titans - Coming off the best season of his career, Wade still might not garner much interest. Returning to Tennessee is likely.
9. Andre' Davis, Bills - Strictly a special-teamer at this point, but a good one.
10. Corey Bradford, Lions- Near the end of the line.
11. Kelley Washington, Bengals- Hasn't developed as a pro.
12. Bethel Johnson, Vikings - Not good enough on returns to make up for deficiencies elsewhere.
13. Troy Brown, Patriots - It's unlikely he'd play for another team.
14. Justin Gage, Bears- Had his chance to start and never did much with it.
15. Cortez Hankton, Jaguars – A useful special teamer.
16. Az-Zahir Hakim, Lions- Mid-season pickup.
Restricted Free Agents
1. DJ Hackett, Seahawks- Hackett has played so well the last two years as a number four receiver, Mike Holmgren has to view him as a potential starter. If Seattle was foolish enough to place a low tender on him, look for significant interest in Hackett.
2. Wes Welker, Dolphins - There's a chance the new Dolphins regime may not value Welker's multi-dimensional skills as much as the old one. After catching more passes than Chris Chambers in 2006, teams like the Patriots would love to sign him to an offer sheet if Miami places a low tender on him. In the end, Cam Cameron could use him like he used Eric Parker in San Diego.
3. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - Crayton has evolved into an explosive third receiver. Dallas should retain him.
4. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars - Jacksonville has seemingly soured on Wilford after a lackluster 2006 season. They probably won't re-sign him to a long-term deal, but he's likely to be back in 2007 as a reserve.
5. Samie Parker, Chiefs - Kansas City needs to upgrade from Parker. It's unlikely anyone would give up a pick for him.
6. Drew Carter, Panthers - Has passed Keary Colbert on the depth chart and should be back.
7. Terrance Copper, Saints- Proof that Sean Payton can make any receiver a fantasy factor. Copper should stay in New Orleans.
8. Clarence Moore, Ravens - Briefly cut by the Ravens last year before being re-signed.
Cap Casualty Candidates
1. Terrell Owens, Cowboys - Norv Turner reportedly didn't want Owens. He wasn't hired. We don't think it's a worthwhile investment to pay T.O. $10 million more this year, but it looks likely to happen in Dallas.
2. Joe Horn, Saints - Horn and the Saints appear headed for a divorce. Speed and durability have faded, so it's possible someone will overpay for him in free agency. A return to Kansas City would be interesting.
3. Marty Booker, Dolphins- Led Miami in receiving yards last season, but has a big cap number. Cam Cameron probably doesn't want to give up offensive talent, so Booker should be safe.
4. Amani Toomer, Giants - Recovering from a torn ACL, Toomer should be safe if only because his salary ($2.85 million) is affordable.
5. Justin McCareins, Jets- Not a favorite of the Mangini regime. It's hard to pinpoint why McCareins hasn't put together a better career, but he's still a useful number three receiver.
6. Mike Williams, Lions - The Detroit papers speculate that Williams could be cut, but he's expensive to get rid of. If he shows improved work ethic, he should make the team. That's a big if.
7. Brandon Lloyd, Redskins - A world class turd. It wouldn't shock me if Washington released Lloyd if he doesn't have a better attitude this summer.
8. Rod Smith, Broncos - Denver simply can't pay Smith $5.5 million to be a third receiver. The two sides should be able to work something out.
9. Keary Colbert, Panthers - Fallen off a cliff after a boffo rookie season, Colbert looks likely to get dumped by Carolina. He should get another chance.
10. Keenan McCardell, Chargers- Like Rod Smith, the aging process happened suddenly for McCardell. An unappreciated career could be over.
11. Brandon Stokley, Colts - Career is in jeopardy after tearing his Achilles' tendon.
Trade Candidates
1. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks - There is a perfect storm brewing for Jackson to get dealt. He has grumbled about his contract for years, saying Seattle didn't follow through with some promise. While always productive, Jackson has inconsistent hands and suffered through injuries the last two seasons.
Seattle has a logjam at receiver and could probably acquire a second-round pick for Jackson from teams like Minnesota, New England, or Green Bay.
2. Randy Moss, Raiders- By all accounts, Moss wants out. Oakland has enough receivers, so they may just give him up for a first-day draft pick. Al Davis usually doesn't like giving up talent that easily, though, so don't assume Moss will get what he wants.
Teams Looking for Wide Receivers
1. Vikings - Minnesota's passing game is in deep trouble. Their talent at quarterback and wide receiver is the worst in the league. Troy Williamson couldn't hold on to his starting job and hasn't matured as a pro. Travis Taylor is a free agent and is expected to leave. Marcus Robinson is injury-prone and mediocre. There is almost no depth behind these three.
The Vikings have to add a wide receiver or two in free agency, and then add depth in the draft. They should be major players for West Coast offense veterans like Donte' Stallworth, Darrell Jackson, and Ashley Lelie. Stallworth makes a lot of sense.
2. Patriots - Even if it's all about the system, New England would love to upgrade at receiver. They offered Derrick Mason a big deal two years ago, so they will go after the right free agent. Bobby Engram, Drew Bennett, Joe Horn, and Wes Welker could all fit the Patriots' system. Ashley Lelie or Kevin Curtis could add some much-needed speed to the offense.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - Eddie Kennison is a number two receiver masquerading as a number one. Samie Parker is a number four receiver with a starting job. Dante Hall is done. Kansas City needs to infuse talent and fast.
4. San Francisco 49ers - Antonio Bryant is suspended for the start of the season and Arnaz Battle would make a better number three receiver than a starter. There isn't much depth on the bench, so look for the 49ers to add someone.
5. Philadelphia Eagles - Donte' Stallworth will be difficult to retain. Hank Baskett, Jason Avant, and Greg Lewis could slide up the depth chart, but Philadelphia would probably like to add more talent.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags look set at receiver on paper, but there have been reports that they are tired of waiting for Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford to develop. Division rival Drew Bennett could be a target.
7. Tampa Bay Bucs - Tampa likes Maurice Stovall and is hopeful of a rebound from Michael Clayton, but nothing is guaranteed from either player. Jon Gruden is always willing to take a gamble on talent, so they could get involved in the Randy Moss sweepstakes. Drafting Calvin Johnson is another option.
8. Detroit Lions - With Mike Furrey re-signed, the Lions don't need to add another receiver. But they are expected to go hard after former Mike Martz pupil Kevin Curtis, which would give the Lions an explosive wideout trio.
9. Bills - Buffalo has a lot of number three receivers (Peerless Price, Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish), but no one to take pressure off Lee Evans. J.P. Losman needs more weapons. The Bills say they are happy with their group, though, so they probably won't be aggressive.
10. New York Giants - Amani Toomer is probably safe as he recovers from a torn ACL. Sinorice Moss has talent, but is unproven. The Giants could be interested in adding depth.
11. Cleveland Browns - Braylon Edwards can be a No. 1 receiver in time and Joe Jurevicius is a solid option in the slot. The Browns could surprise and go after one of the top names on this list or draft another receiver high.
12. Green Bay Packers - Brett Favre reportedly wants to throw to Randy Moss, so there is a chance that will happen. Greg Jennings had a great rookie season, but the Packers have no depth and may talk to West Coast wideouts like Ashley Lelie, Travis Taylor, and Darrell Jackson, if he's available.
13. Indianapolis Colts - How scary would the Colts be if they added Kevin Curtis? It won't happen because of the salary cap, but Indy could use a slot receiver.
14. St. Louis Rams - They need some depth and wideouts for the future. The draft may make more sense.
Unrestricted free agent tight ends
1. Daniel Graham, Patriots - New England has depth at the position, but Graham is their best overall tight end and a team captain. He's a punishing blocker and passable receiver. They will try to re-sign the team captain, but he will be tough to retain. Denver should go hard after him.
2. Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks - Seattle is thin at the position, but they may have grown tired of Stevens' inconsistencies. Unless a team like Minnesota steps up, though, the Seahawks seem like the most likely destination for Stevens.
3. Eric Johnson, 49ers - Johnson is a useful second tight end, but he's injury-prone, doesn't have any yards-after-catch ability, and isn't a great blocker. He'll get a job, but probably not as a starter.
4. David Martin, Packers - Martin showed enough flashes in 2006 to get a contract for next season.
5. Billy Miller, Saints - Drew Brees started looking to Miller more often at the end of the season. He could be brought back.
6. Kyle Brady, Jaguars - A sixth offensive lineman. This could be the year Brady finally retires.
7. Donald Lee, Packers - Why have the Packers kept Lee and David Martin for five years each?
Cap Casualty Candidates
1. Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings - His $1.45 million salary is reasonable, but Wiggins doesn't fit what Brad Childress wants in a tight end.
2. Erron Kinney, Titans - Injuries could end Kinney's career.
Teams Looking for Tight Ends
1. Vikings- The Vikings would love someone who could stretch the field.
2. Panthers - New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson wants to feature tight ends more in the passing game. Jermaine Wiggins could be a fit.
3. Saints - Should try to do better than Billy Miller. A draft pick would make sense.
4. Bills - A decent pass-catching tight end could alleviate some pressure from J.P. Losman.
5. Seahawks - If Jerramy Stevens leaves; Seattle has a major hole at the position.
6. Bengals -They haven't made a pass-catching tight end in the past a priority.
7. Denver - The Broncos want a blocker to pair with Tony Scheffler.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
FA Preview: The Receivers
We've previewed the available players at quarterback, running back , and defensive backs this off-season. Now it's time for the pass-catchers.
The crop of possible wideouts and tight ends who may be available is relatively thin. Donte' Stallworth, Drew Bennett, and Jerramy Stevens are the most consistent players with starting experience. Kevin Curtis, Ashley Lelie, Daniel Graham and Bobby Engram are next, and then the list falls off a cliff.
The list of teams looking for receivers finishes our rankings at the bottom.
Unrestricted free agents
1. Donte' Stallworth, Eagles - While he struggled with injuries in 2006, Stallworth has matured and showed consistency as a deep threat the last two seasons. He's a solid number two receiver who fits well in a West Coast offense. The Vikings are a likely suitor. The Patriots are a darkhorse.
2. Drew Bennett, Titans - Getting open isn't the problem. Catching the ball consistently is. While Bennett isn't polished, he's a proven starter with explosive ability. He's productive, a prototype No. 2 receiver. New England, San Francisco, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Jacksonville could all show interest.
3. Kevin Curtis, Rams - Curtis was highly productive in St. Louis when given the chance to start in 2005. He has great speed and knows Mike Martz's offense. The Lions should go hard after him.
4. Ashley Lelie, Falcons - After a lost season in Atlanta, Lelie is hitting the market at the wrong time. While there are perceptions he's soft, he's one of the most consistent deep threats in the league. At worst, he could make an explosive number three receiver. His age is a bonus.
5. Bobby Engram, Seahawks - One of the most underrated players of the last five years, Engram is content to effectively fill the role of a slot receiver. He would fit well in New England and Philadelphia. Seattle is unlikely to keep him because of a logjam at the position.
6. Travis Taylor, Vikings- The definition of replacement-level. He was Minnesota's most consistent wideout last year, but they probably won't keep him because of a legal mishap.
7. Dennis Northcutt, Browns - Once a productive slot receiver and return man, Northcutt had a case of the drops in 2006. He'll make a roster though.
8. Bobby Wade, Titans - Coming off the best season of his career, Wade still might not garner much interest. Returning to Tennessee is likely.
9. Andre' Davis, Bills - Strictly a special-teamer at this point, but a good one.
10. Corey Bradford, Lions- Near the end of the line.
11. Kelley Washington, Bengals- Hasn't developed as a pro.
12. Bethel Johnson, Vikings - Not good enough on returns to make up for deficiencies elsewhere.
13. Troy Brown, Patriots - It's unlikely he'd play for another team.
14. Justin Gage, Bears- Had his chance to start and never did much with it.
15. Cortez Hankton, Jaguars – A useful special teamer.
16. Az-Zahir Hakim, Lions- Mid-season pickup.
Restricted Free Agents
1. DJ Hackett, Seahawks- Hackett has played so well the last two years as a number four receiver, Mike Holmgren has to view him as a potential starter. If Seattle was foolish enough to place a low tender on him, look for significant interest in Hackett.
2. Wes Welker, Dolphins - There's a chance the new Dolphins regime may not value Welker's multi-dimensional skills as much as the old one. After catching more passes than Chris Chambers in 2006, teams like the Patriots would love to sign him to an offer sheet if Miami places a low tender on him. In the end, Cam Cameron could use him like he used Eric Parker in San Diego.
3. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - Crayton has evolved into an explosive third receiver. Dallas should retain him.
4. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars - Jacksonville has seemingly soured on Wilford after a lackluster 2006 season. They probably won't re-sign him to a long-term deal, but he's likely to be back in 2007 as a reserve.
5. Samie Parker, Chiefs - Kansas City needs to upgrade from Parker. It's unlikely anyone would give up a pick for him.
6. Drew Carter, Panthers - Has passed Keary Colbert on the depth chart and should be back.
7. Terrance Copper, Saints- Proof that Sean Payton can make any receiver a fantasy factor. Copper should stay in New Orleans.
8. Clarence Moore, Ravens - Briefly cut by the Ravens last year before being re-signed.
Cap Casualty Candidates
1. Terrell Owens, Cowboys - Norv Turner reportedly didn't want Owens. He wasn't hired. We don't think it's a worthwhile investment to pay T.O. $10 million more this year, but it looks likely to happen in Dallas.
2. Joe Horn, Saints - Horn and the Saints appear headed for a divorce. Speed and durability have faded, so it's possible someone will overpay for him in free agency. A return to Kansas City would be interesting.
3. Marty Booker, Dolphins- Led Miami in receiving yards last season, but has a big cap number. Cam Cameron probably doesn't want to give up offensive talent, so Booker should be safe.
4. Amani Toomer, Giants - Recovering from a torn ACL, Toomer should be safe if only because his salary ($2.85 million) is affordable.
5. Justin McCareins, Jets- Not a favorite of the Mangini regime. It's hard to pinpoint why McCareins hasn't put together a better career, but he's still a useful number three receiver.
6. Mike Williams, Lions - The Detroit papers speculate that Williams could be cut, but he's expensive to get rid of. If he shows improved work ethic, he should make the team. That's a big if.
7. Brandon Lloyd, Redskins - A world class turd. It wouldn't shock me if Washington released Lloyd if he doesn't have a better attitude this summer.
8. Rod Smith, Broncos - Denver simply can't pay Smith $5.5 million to be a third receiver. The two sides should be able to work something out.
9. Keary Colbert, Panthers - Fallen off a cliff after a boffo rookie season, Colbert looks likely to get dumped by Carolina. He should get another chance.
10. Keenan McCardell, Chargers- Like Rod Smith, the aging process happened suddenly for McCardell. An unappreciated career could be over.
11. Brandon Stokley, Colts - Career is in jeopardy after tearing his Achilles' tendon.
Trade Candidates
1. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks - There is a perfect storm brewing for Jackson to get dealt. He has grumbled about his contract for years, saying Seattle didn't follow through with some promise. While always productive, Jackson has inconsistent hands and suffered through injuries the last two seasons.
Seattle has a logjam at receiver and could probably acquire a second-round pick for Jackson from teams like Minnesota, New England, or Green Bay.
2. Randy Moss, Raiders- By all accounts, Moss wants out. Oakland has enough receivers, so they may just give him up for a first-day draft pick. Al Davis usually doesn't like giving up talent that easily, though, so don't assume Moss will get what he wants.
Teams Looking for Wide Receivers
1. Vikings - Minnesota's passing game is in deep trouble. Their talent at quarterback and wide receiver is the worst in the league. Troy Williamson couldn't hold on to his starting job and hasn't matured as a pro. Travis Taylor is a free agent and is expected to leave. Marcus Robinson is injury-prone and mediocre. There is almost no depth behind these three.
The Vikings have to add a wide receiver or two in free agency, and then add depth in the draft. They should be major players for West Coast offense veterans like Donte' Stallworth, Darrell Jackson, and Ashley Lelie. Stallworth makes a lot of sense.
2. Patriots - Even if it's all about the system, New England would love to upgrade at receiver. They offered Derrick Mason a big deal two years ago, so they will go after the right free agent. Bobby Engram, Drew Bennett, Joe Horn, and Wes Welker could all fit the Patriots' system. Ashley Lelie or Kevin Curtis could add some much-needed speed to the offense.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - Eddie Kennison is a number two receiver masquerading as a number one. Samie Parker is a number four receiver with a starting job. Dante Hall is done. Kansas City needs to infuse talent and fast.
4. San Francisco 49ers - Antonio Bryant is suspended for the start of the season and Arnaz Battle would make a better number three receiver than a starter. There isn't much depth on the bench, so look for the 49ers to add someone.
5. Philadelphia Eagles - Donte' Stallworth will be difficult to retain. Hank Baskett, Jason Avant, and Greg Lewis could slide up the depth chart, but Philadelphia would probably like to add more talent.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags look set at receiver on paper, but there have been reports that they are tired of waiting for Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford to develop. Division rival Drew Bennett could be a target.
7. Tampa Bay Bucs - Tampa likes Maurice Stovall and is hopeful of a rebound from Michael Clayton, but nothing is guaranteed from either player. Jon Gruden is always willing to take a gamble on talent, so they could get involved in the Randy Moss sweepstakes. Drafting Calvin Johnson is another option.
8. Detroit Lions - With Mike Furrey re-signed, the Lions don't need to add another receiver. But they are expected to go hard after former Mike Martz pupil Kevin Curtis, which would give the Lions an explosive wideout trio.
9. Bills - Buffalo has a lot of number three receivers (Peerless Price, Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish), but no one to take pressure off Lee Evans. J.P. Losman needs more weapons. The Bills say they are happy with their group, though, so they probably won't be aggressive.
10. New York Giants - Amani Toomer is probably safe as he recovers from a torn ACL. Sinorice Moss has talent, but is unproven. The Giants could be interested in adding depth.
11. Cleveland Browns - Braylon Edwards can be a No. 1 receiver in time and Joe Jurevicius is a solid option in the slot. The Browns could surprise and go after one of the top names on this list or draft another receiver high.
12. Green Bay Packers - Brett Favre reportedly wants to throw to Randy Moss, so there is a chance that will happen. Greg Jennings had a great rookie season, but the Packers have no depth and may talk to West Coast wideouts like Ashley Lelie, Travis Taylor, and Darrell Jackson, if he's available.
13. Indianapolis Colts - How scary would the Colts be if they added Kevin Curtis? It won't happen because of the salary cap, but Indy could use a slot receiver.
14. St. Louis Rams - They need some depth and wideouts for the future. The draft may make more sense.
Unrestricted free agent tight ends
1. Daniel Graham, Patriots - New England has depth at the position, but Graham is their best overall tight end and a team captain. He's a punishing blocker and passable receiver. They will try to re-sign the team captain, but he will be tough to retain. Denver should go hard after him.
2. Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks - Seattle is thin at the position, but they may have grown tired of Stevens' inconsistencies. Unless a team like Minnesota steps up, though, the Seahawks seem like the most likely destination for Stevens.
3. Eric Johnson, 49ers - Johnson is a useful second tight end, but he's injury-prone, doesn't have any yards-after-catch ability, and isn't a great blocker. He'll get a job, but probably not as a starter.
4. David Martin, Packers - Martin showed enough flashes in 2006 to get a contract for next season.
5. Billy Miller, Saints - Drew Brees started looking to Miller more often at the end of the season. He could be brought back.
6. Kyle Brady, Jaguars - A sixth offensive lineman. This could be the year Brady finally retires.
7. Donald Lee, Packers - Why have the Packers kept Lee and David Martin for five years each?
Cap Casualty Candidates
1. Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings - His $1.45 million salary is reasonable, but Wiggins doesn't fit what Brad Childress wants in a tight end.
2. Erron Kinney, Titans - Injuries could end Kinney's career.
Teams Looking for Tight Ends
1. Vikings- The Vikings would love someone who could stretch the field.
2. Panthers - New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson wants to feature tight ends more in the passing game. Jermaine Wiggins could be a fit.
3. Saints - Should try to do better than Billy Miller. A draft pick would make sense.
4. Bills - A decent pass-catching tight end could alleviate some pressure from J.P. Losman.
5. Seahawks - If Jerramy Stevens leaves; Seattle has a major hole at the position.
6. Bengals -They haven't made a pass-catching tight end in the past a priority.
7. Denver - The Broncos want a blocker to pair with Tony Scheffler.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Feb 20 2007, 11:46 AM) 
Below is the offseason WR/TE landscape from Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal.
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Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
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Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
Nice post
F&L - Thanks for keeping your rankings updated as well.
Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 5 2007, 12:02 AM)
Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
Good work once again F & L... Unfortunately about 1/2 of my dynasty league is probably watching and I've got some serious trading to do this offseason.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 4 2007, 10:02 PM)
Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
good job keeping this updated fear...i miss the update info that you used to have in there....i.e. when and why significant moves... i know it keeps post long and cluttered, but maybe the reasons in a reply and bumpkeep up the good work
QUOTE (dirtyhalos @ Mar 11 2007, 02:36 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 4 2007, 10:02 PM)
Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
good job keeping this updated fear...i miss the update info that you used to have in there....i.e. when and why significant moves... i know it keeps post long and cluttered, but maybe the reasons in a reply and bumpkeep up the good work
Thanks. I was considering a few new topics, but it's tough to get too excited without much feedback lately.
I've been working on a new value scale, which was going to be next big update. But I also gave some thought to doing an update on all of the players who have changed teams in the offseason and how that has affected their value. I could also follow your suggestion and do a write-up on all players who have moved significantly up or down.
I've been slacking on my baseball preparation this year because it's just tough to get excited with management throwing money around haphazardly all off-season and the rest of the stories revolving around mainstream journalism's obsession with steroids. But with auctions coming up I'll be forced to dive head-first into baseball, and I hope to still have enough energy and interest to work on this football stuff.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 5 2007, 01:02 AM)
Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
Great stuff as always F & L. Really looking forward to your rookie stuff.
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7 - Great QB with outstanding offensive nucleus
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Extremely accurate + Sean Payton's offense + Bush & Colston + dome team with tendency towards high scoring games
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[73] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & signing of Kevin Curtis vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off; if he shows he's healthy to start pre-season, I'll prove him up to 3rd or 4th
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett & McMichael; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8 - Very impressive 1st season as starter, but I like his future value better than '07 value; LT2 isn't going to score 20 TDs/season for much longer, while Gates & V.Jackson are both elite red zone targets.
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2] Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek [SD] 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA] - Could be Delhomme's back-up
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7 - Great QB with outstanding offensive nucleus
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Extremely accurate + Sean Payton's offense + Bush & Colston + dome team with tendency towards high scoring games
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[73] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & signing of Kevin Curtis vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off; if he shows he's healthy to start pre-season, I'll prove him up to 3rd or 4th
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett & McMichael; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8 - Very impressive 1st season as starter, but I like his future value better than '07 value; LT2 isn't going to score 20 TDs/season for much longer, while Gates & V.Jackson are both elite red zone targets.
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2] Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek [SD] 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA] - Could be Delhomme's back-up
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 13 2007, 02:35 AM)
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Excellent addition IMO!! Great stuff, as always!! ThanksETA: Looking forward to seeing the other positions (whenever you have time)!!
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Oct 26 2006, 06:07 AM)
Alexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
Cocaine is a hell of a drug
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 13 2007, 12:35 AM)
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
That's a helluva job you did. Thanks
QUOTE (ThePittbully @ Mar 13 2007, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Oct 26 2006, 06:07 AM)
Alexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
Cocaine is a hell of a drug
Actually, I've never used it so I wouldn't know. Apperently you're under the influence of something since you can't read the date that comment was posted.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 13 2007, 02:35 AM)
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [UFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [UFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [UFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [UFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [UFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Great stuff! Continue please.
good stuff fear, keep it going...
nice work F&L - we are working on implementing tiering in the dynasty rankings this year.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 13 2007, 01:35 AM)
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
I really like the point values.
Each position will have it's own 100 point value? (LT2 will = 100 for Rbs? or will he, for example, equal 400?)
I think it's great that you are ranking Kickers and Defenses ( Hint, hint @ FBGs)
Not a criticism but why have tiers if you are assigning them a relative score? It seems the scores have a self tiering effect.
Great stuff!
QUOTE (TeamDingo @ Mar 13 2007, 11:29 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 13 2007, 01:35 AM)
Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
I really like the point values.
Each position will have it's own 100 point value? (LT2 will = 100 for Rbs? or will he, for example, equal 400?)
I think it's great that you are ranking Kickers and Defenses ( Hint, hint @ FBGs)
Not a criticism but why have tiers if you are assigning them a relative score? It seems the scores have a self tiering effect.
Great stuff!
Yes, each positions will have its own 100 point value, i.e. LT2 = 100 pts, Steve Smith = 95 pts, Antonio Gates = 100 pts. *Edit to add: I am very resistant to a weighted scale on an overall ranking as opposed to position by position. League rules, set-ups and scoring systems are still so disparate that I think trying an overall weighted ranking that could suit everybody's tastes would be fruitless. I've been in QB-heavy leagues where the highest scoring players are always QBs, and I've been in basic scoring leagues where the highest scoring kickers match the highest scoring QBs.
Regarding tiers, I'm not sure I have a good answer for you. You're right that the scores have a self-tiering effect, but the tiers kind of broke themselves down pretty easily for me. I guess the tiers really highlight where the gaps are.
I'll get to work on RBs.
Thanks for the feedback guys.
RUNNINGBACKS
*Note: RBs will be ranked assuming PPR & yardage points. If you're still using basic scoring, go ahead and bypass these rankings...just slip into your favorite flannel shirt, black jeans & birkenstocks for an exciting night of Beverly Hills 90210 & Melrose Place (make sure you leave the flannel unbuttoned all the way down, but put away the dog tags this time, Kenickie).
TIER ONE
[100] LaDainian Tomlinson SD 28.2 - Truly an unfair advantage
[95] Steven Jackson STL 24.1 - LJ has TD edge, S-Jax has youth, receiving game, dome & better offense.
[93] Larry Johnson KC 27.8 - Heavy carries & O-Line getting weaker, but counting on 15-20 TDs makes up for a lot
[89] Reggie Bush NO 22.5 - Came on like a freight train in the 2nd half of the season, and it only gets better from here; gold in PPR leagues
[87] Frank Gore SF 24.2 - Looks like a young Ahman Green; much more powerful runner than commonly believed, break-away speed, underrated receiver
TIER TWO
[75] Brian Westbrook PHI 28.0 - Wouldn't be as high if not for PPR; I am concerned about an upgrade on Buckhalter and losing goal-line work, so he could move down
[72] Ronnie Brown MIA 25.7 - Steven Jackson-type talent, but Ricky's presence is nagging; I think he's about ready to bust out...
[70] Willie Parker PIT 26.8 - Will loss of Cowher affect running game?
[68] Laurence Maroney NE 22.5 - Sammy Morris was best case scenario
[66] Clinton Portis WAS 26.0 - Just too many questions right now...and frankly, his body of work in WAS doesn't hold a candle to his body of work in DEN; I still like him, and the questions are more about situation than talent, but the questions are of the nagging variety.
[63] Joseph Addai IND 24.3 - Will Indy add a runner to pair with him again?
[61] Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 22.4 - The most illogical trend I've seen on these boards lately is the concern over MoJo's future production now that Fred Taylor has been re-signed & Greg Jones may be healthy. This is the same Fred Taylor who shared the backfield with MoJo last season while he scored 16 TDs & finished in the top 8 in RB scoring. And is Greg Jones anybody's idea of a good runner? What we have here is fear of the unknown...not enough guys got to see MoJo play last year. They can't believe what they didn't see.
[60] Willis McGahee BAL 25.9 - Ravens were best-case scenario for McGahee; he suits their style very well, will be fully utilized & should be kept in line by strong leadership; I like him to regain a lot of value in '07
[59] Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping: complete non-factor in the passing game, 3.6 YPC in '06, O-Line slipping, injury risk, a lot of tough carries under his belt & history of 30+ year old RBs suggests he'll have a very hard time topping 1200 yards again; I know it's a low ranking but trade value is inherently a large part of a player's value...and I don't think you'll be able to get full value for him. Bottom line: even if I'm wrong, I'm still sitting there with a young stud like MJD or Addai; if I'm right, you're sitting there with a washed up Alexander and no young stud to replace him.
[58] Rudi Johnson CIN 27.9 - Non-factor as a receiver, ypc down in '06, starting to slip or poor line play? Either way, Chris Perry should be healthy by September, in which case he will eat into Rudi's production more going forward
TIER THREE
[48] Cedric Benson CHI 24.7 - The Cedric Benson era has finally arrived
[45] LenDale White TEN 22.7 - I know there's a chance TEN will add another RB, but as of early March I wouldn't trade him for anybody below
[43] Travis Henry DEN 28.8 - I don't think he's nearly as talented as many in the "Travis Henry neck-and-neck with LT2" thread believe, and there's always RBBC concern with the whims of Shanny; however, it is a good offense and Henry's contract bodes well for a heavier load the next couple of seasons.
[41] DeAngelo Williams CAR 24.4 - I desperately want to rank him ahead of Travis Henry, but with Foster still hanging around & the possibility of Williams not getting steady goal-line carries, too much of his value lies in the murky waters of the future
[40] Cadillac Williams TB 25.4 - My own golden rule is to let everyone else rely on last year's stats while I judge the talent & situation; accordingly, I'd be willing to give Caddy somewhat of a mulligan on his '06 season if his situation wasn't such a mess...still splitting 3rd down & goal-line work with scrappy veterans and still stuck in a lifeless offense.
[38] Marion Barber III DAL 24.3 - Could be in line for increased role; just don't expect '06 TD production again in '07
[36] Thomas Jones NYJ 29.0 - Won't be much of a factor in the passing game with Washington around, but at least he won't have to constantly look over his shoulder at Benson
[34] Deuce McAllister NO 28.7 - Ran well and should still be in position to score often, but last year may have been best case scenario
[33] Chester Taylor MIN 28.0 - Career year? Or will he continue to be startable for a few years?
[30] Michael Turner SD 25.5 - Looks like he'll sit for another year, then take over a starting role for the highest bidder
TIER FOUR
[25] #Kevin Jones DET 25.0 - Future is just too murky right now with injury & Tatum Bell acquisition; could regain significant value during the next few months
[24] Brandon Jacobs NYG 25.2 - I think the Droughns trade was a vote of confidence for Jacobs
[23] Edgerrin James ARI 29.1 - Age + wear & tear a factor; piss poor O-Line play; Whisenhunt mentioned RB as an area needing upgrade; no longer above average in the passing game and definitely below average at the goal-line
[22] Ahman Green HOU 30.5 - Takes the $ in HOU, still has some life left in his legs; how will he fare in a traditionally sub-par Texans offense?
[20] Tatum Bell DET 26.5 - Ultimate high risk/high reward, but trying to keep the faith is entering Sisyphus territory
[19] Julius Jones DAL 26.0 - Production leaking steadily with Barber more involved; trade rumors
[18] Jerious Norwood ATL 24.1 - I see change of pace more than every down stud
[17] Lamont Jordan OAK 28.8 - Value takes another hit with Rhodes signing
[15] Jamal Lewis CLE 28.0 - Another 1-year (dynasty killing) deal & an offense far from fantasy heaven for RBs
TIER FIVE
[12] Ladell Betts WAS 28.0 - Would like to rank him a little higher, but I just can't see it for a back-up; desperately needs a trade to make a move up
[11] Chris Brown [UFA] 26.4 - Cue Clarence "Frogman" Henry from the Daniel Stern driving scene in Diner: "I ain't got a home..."
[10] Fred Taylor JAX 31.6 - I wouldn't go penciling in last year's numbers
[9] Corey Dillon [UFA] 32.8 - I think he was foolish not to re-work his contract in New England; he's not going to find the pot at the end of the rainbow as a 33 year old RB on his last legs
[8] Vernand Morency GB 27.6 - Green's departure could leave him with increased role, but still likely to share the load in '07
[7] #Ricky Williams [MIA] 30.3 - Will he stay in MIA, or will another team take a chance on him as a starter?
[7] DeShaun Foster [CAR] 27.6 - Probably a role-player from here on out
[7] Chris Perry CIN 25.7 - Great in passing game, will be more involved in '07, way too brittle
[6] Mike Bell DEN 24.4 - Clear #2 to Henry now
[6] Reuben Droughns NYG 29.0 - Will take the lesser share of carries with Brandon Jacobs
[6] Warrick Dunn ATL 32.7 - On the downside
TIER SIX
[3] Leon Washington NYJ 25.0 - Won't do much more than eat into Thomas Jones' value as a very good 3rd down back
[3] Adrian Peterson CHI 28.2 - A Benson injury away from major playing time...not an unlikely scenario
[3] Musa Smith BAL 25.3 - Talented, liked by Billick, but just too injury-prone
[3] Anthony Thomas BUF 29.8 - In line to see significant playing time as of March...stay tuned
[3] T.J. Duckett DET 26.5 - Likely to get at least goal-line carries and possibly more...of course, it's the Lions so scratch all projections
[3] J.J. Arrington ARI 24.6 - I can't shake the feeling that he never got much of a chance; will he re-surface down the road?
[3] Mewelde Moore MIN 25.1 - Remember that October a couple of years ago when he was one of the most productive backs in the NFL? What happened? Just a gem of a receiver out of the backfield, but something is definitely missing...
[3] Najeh Davenport PIT 28.6 - Big & quick, but where has that gotten him? Not PIT's goal-line back
[3] Dominic Rhodes OAK 28.6 - After all of that, he signs with OAK? Ouch...
TIER SEVEN
[2] Maurice Hicks [SF] 29.1 [RFA] - Jeff Fisher an admirer, could end up as LenDale's back-up
[2] Sammy Morris NE 30.5 - Will be interesting to see how his talents are used by Pats
[2] Ryan Moats PHI 24.8 - Will need a clean slate with another team down the road
[2] #Greg Jones JAX 26.4 - Does he have the skills for H-back? Coming off 2nd ACL injury, tough to see what his role will be with MJD & Taylor hogging the carries
[2] #Domanick Williams [HOU] 26.9 [CUT?] - More surgery...
[2] Correll Buckhalter [UFA] 28.9 - More value in Philly than anywhere else
[2] Michael Robinson SF 24.5 - Up-and-down rookie season
[2] Michael Bennett KC 29.0
[2] #Brian Calhoun DET 23.4 - Poor timing with Jones' injury; Bell acquisition leaves his future very much in question
[2] Ciatrick Fason MIN 24.6 - Another guy who never got much of a chance
[2] Maurice Morris SEA 27.8 - Couldn't even hold much value with Alexander's injury; 2 career TDs in 4 seasons
[2] Cedric Houston NYJ 25.2 - Jones acquisition leaves him without a role on offense
[2] Justin Fargas OAK 27.6 - Back to the end of the line
TIER EIGHT
[1] Wali Lundy HOU 24.0 - Strictly 3rd down material
[1] Mike Anderson BAL 34.0 - Old, but still producing when given a chance
[1] Eric Shelton CAR 24.2 - Flop, could he get a clean slate with new OC?
[1] Kevan Barlow 28.7 [UFA] - Enters the Anthony Thomas portion of his career
[1] Noah Herron GB 25.4 - Role player
[1] Marcel Shipp 29.1 - 2007 TD Vulture?
[1] Samkon Gado HOU 24.8 - Last November & December seem like so long ago
[1] Alvin Pearman JAX 25.1 - 3rd down back
[1] Michael Pittman TB 32.0
[1] Jerome Harrison CLE 24.5 - If he couldn't force his way onto the field this year, how good can he be? Seriously.
[1] Ron Dayne [UFA] 29.5
[1] Darren Sproles SD 24.2
[1] Andre Hall DEN 25.0 - His chance never materialized
*Note: RBs will be ranked assuming PPR & yardage points. If you're still using basic scoring, go ahead and bypass these rankings...just slip into your favorite flannel shirt, black jeans & birkenstocks for an exciting night of Beverly Hills 90210 & Melrose Place (make sure you leave the flannel unbuttoned all the way down, but put away the dog tags this time, Kenickie).
TIER ONE
[100] LaDainian Tomlinson SD 28.2 - Truly an unfair advantage
[95] Steven Jackson STL 24.1 - LJ has TD edge, S-Jax has youth, receiving game, dome & better offense.
[93] Larry Johnson KC 27.8 - Heavy carries & O-Line getting weaker, but counting on 15-20 TDs makes up for a lot
[89] Reggie Bush NO 22.5 - Came on like a freight train in the 2nd half of the season, and it only gets better from here; gold in PPR leagues
[87] Frank Gore SF 24.2 - Looks like a young Ahman Green; much more powerful runner than commonly believed, break-away speed, underrated receiver
TIER TWO
[75] Brian Westbrook PHI 28.0 - Wouldn't be as high if not for PPR; I am concerned about an upgrade on Buckhalter and losing goal-line work, so he could move down
[72] Ronnie Brown MIA 25.7 - Steven Jackson-type talent, but Ricky's presence is nagging; I think he's about ready to bust out...
[70] Willie Parker PIT 26.8 - Will loss of Cowher affect running game?
[68] Laurence Maroney NE 22.5 - Sammy Morris was best case scenario
[66] Clinton Portis WAS 26.0 - Just too many questions right now...and frankly, his body of work in WAS doesn't hold a candle to his body of work in DEN; I still like him, and the questions are more about situation than talent, but the questions are of the nagging variety.
[63] Joseph Addai IND 24.3 - Will Indy add a runner to pair with him again?
[61] Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 22.4 - The most illogical trend I've seen on these boards lately is the concern over MoJo's future production now that Fred Taylor has been re-signed & Greg Jones may be healthy. This is the same Fred Taylor who shared the backfield with MoJo last season while he scored 16 TDs & finished in the top 8 in RB scoring. And is Greg Jones anybody's idea of a good runner? What we have here is fear of the unknown...not enough guys got to see MoJo play last year. They can't believe what they didn't see.
[60] Willis McGahee BAL 25.9 - Ravens were best-case scenario for McGahee; he suits their style very well, will be fully utilized & should be kept in line by strong leadership; I like him to regain a lot of value in '07
[59] Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping: complete non-factor in the passing game, 3.6 YPC in '06, O-Line slipping, injury risk, a lot of tough carries under his belt & history of 30+ year old RBs suggests he'll have a very hard time topping 1200 yards again; I know it's a low ranking but trade value is inherently a large part of a player's value...and I don't think you'll be able to get full value for him. Bottom line: even if I'm wrong, I'm still sitting there with a young stud like MJD or Addai; if I'm right, you're sitting there with a washed up Alexander and no young stud to replace him.
[58] Rudi Johnson CIN 27.9 - Non-factor as a receiver, ypc down in '06, starting to slip or poor line play? Either way, Chris Perry should be healthy by September, in which case he will eat into Rudi's production more going forward
TIER THREE
[48] Cedric Benson CHI 24.7 - The Cedric Benson era has finally arrived
[45] LenDale White TEN 22.7 - I know there's a chance TEN will add another RB, but as of early March I wouldn't trade him for anybody below
[43] Travis Henry DEN 28.8 - I don't think he's nearly as talented as many in the "Travis Henry neck-and-neck with LT2" thread believe, and there's always RBBC concern with the whims of Shanny; however, it is a good offense and Henry's contract bodes well for a heavier load the next couple of seasons.
[41] DeAngelo Williams CAR 24.4 - I desperately want to rank him ahead of Travis Henry, but with Foster still hanging around & the possibility of Williams not getting steady goal-line carries, too much of his value lies in the murky waters of the future
[40] Cadillac Williams TB 25.4 - My own golden rule is to let everyone else rely on last year's stats while I judge the talent & situation; accordingly, I'd be willing to give Caddy somewhat of a mulligan on his '06 season if his situation wasn't such a mess...still splitting 3rd down & goal-line work with scrappy veterans and still stuck in a lifeless offense.
[38] Marion Barber III DAL 24.3 - Could be in line for increased role; just don't expect '06 TD production again in '07
[36] Thomas Jones NYJ 29.0 - Won't be much of a factor in the passing game with Washington around, but at least he won't have to constantly look over his shoulder at Benson
[34] Deuce McAllister NO 28.7 - Ran well and should still be in position to score often, but last year may have been best case scenario
[33] Chester Taylor MIN 28.0 - Career year? Or will he continue to be startable for a few years?
[30] Michael Turner SD 25.5 - Looks like he'll sit for another year, then take over a starting role for the highest bidder
TIER FOUR
[25] #Kevin Jones DET 25.0 - Future is just too murky right now with injury & Tatum Bell acquisition; could regain significant value during the next few months
[24] Brandon Jacobs NYG 25.2 - I think the Droughns trade was a vote of confidence for Jacobs
[23] Edgerrin James ARI 29.1 - Age + wear & tear a factor; piss poor O-Line play; Whisenhunt mentioned RB as an area needing upgrade; no longer above average in the passing game and definitely below average at the goal-line
[22] Ahman Green HOU 30.5 - Takes the $ in HOU, still has some life left in his legs; how will he fare in a traditionally sub-par Texans offense?
[20] Tatum Bell DET 26.5 - Ultimate high risk/high reward, but trying to keep the faith is entering Sisyphus territory
[19] Julius Jones DAL 26.0 - Production leaking steadily with Barber more involved; trade rumors
[18] Jerious Norwood ATL 24.1 - I see change of pace more than every down stud
[17] Lamont Jordan OAK 28.8 - Value takes another hit with Rhodes signing
[15] Jamal Lewis CLE 28.0 - Another 1-year (dynasty killing) deal & an offense far from fantasy heaven for RBs
TIER FIVE
[12] Ladell Betts WAS 28.0 - Would like to rank him a little higher, but I just can't see it for a back-up; desperately needs a trade to make a move up
[11] Chris Brown [UFA] 26.4 - Cue Clarence "Frogman" Henry from the Daniel Stern driving scene in Diner: "I ain't got a home..."
[10] Fred Taylor JAX 31.6 - I wouldn't go penciling in last year's numbers
[9] Corey Dillon [UFA] 32.8 - I think he was foolish not to re-work his contract in New England; he's not going to find the pot at the end of the rainbow as a 33 year old RB on his last legs
[8] Vernand Morency GB 27.6 - Green's departure could leave him with increased role, but still likely to share the load in '07
[7] #Ricky Williams [MIA] 30.3 - Will he stay in MIA, or will another team take a chance on him as a starter?
[7] DeShaun Foster [CAR] 27.6 - Probably a role-player from here on out
[7] Chris Perry CIN 25.7 - Great in passing game, will be more involved in '07, way too brittle
[6] Mike Bell DEN 24.4 - Clear #2 to Henry now
[6] Reuben Droughns NYG 29.0 - Will take the lesser share of carries with Brandon Jacobs
[6] Warrick Dunn ATL 32.7 - On the downside
TIER SIX
[3] Leon Washington NYJ 25.0 - Won't do much more than eat into Thomas Jones' value as a very good 3rd down back
[3] Adrian Peterson CHI 28.2 - A Benson injury away from major playing time...not an unlikely scenario
[3] Musa Smith BAL 25.3 - Talented, liked by Billick, but just too injury-prone
[3] Anthony Thomas BUF 29.8 - In line to see significant playing time as of March...stay tuned
[3] T.J. Duckett DET 26.5 - Likely to get at least goal-line carries and possibly more...of course, it's the Lions so scratch all projections
[3] J.J. Arrington ARI 24.6 - I can't shake the feeling that he never got much of a chance; will he re-surface down the road?
[3] Mewelde Moore MIN 25.1 - Remember that October a couple of years ago when he was one of the most productive backs in the NFL? What happened? Just a gem of a receiver out of the backfield, but something is definitely missing...
[3] Najeh Davenport PIT 28.6 - Big & quick, but where has that gotten him? Not PIT's goal-line back
[3] Dominic Rhodes OAK 28.6 - After all of that, he signs with OAK? Ouch...
TIER SEVEN
[2] Maurice Hicks [SF] 29.1 [RFA] - Jeff Fisher an admirer, could end up as LenDale's back-up
[2] Sammy Morris NE 30.5 - Will be interesting to see how his talents are used by Pats
[2] Ryan Moats PHI 24.8 - Will need a clean slate with another team down the road
[2] #Greg Jones JAX 26.4 - Does he have the skills for H-back? Coming off 2nd ACL injury, tough to see what his role will be with MJD & Taylor hogging the carries
[2] #Domanick Williams [HOU] 26.9 [CUT?] - More surgery...
[2] Correll Buckhalter [UFA] 28.9 - More value in Philly than anywhere else
[2] Michael Robinson SF 24.5 - Up-and-down rookie season
[2] Michael Bennett KC 29.0
[2] #Brian Calhoun DET 23.4 - Poor timing with Jones' injury; Bell acquisition leaves his future very much in question
[2] Ciatrick Fason MIN 24.6 - Another guy who never got much of a chance
[2] Maurice Morris SEA 27.8 - Couldn't even hold much value with Alexander's injury; 2 career TDs in 4 seasons
[2] Cedric Houston NYJ 25.2 - Jones acquisition leaves him without a role on offense
[2] Justin Fargas OAK 27.6 - Back to the end of the line
TIER EIGHT
[1] Wali Lundy HOU 24.0 - Strictly 3rd down material
[1] Mike Anderson BAL 34.0 - Old, but still producing when given a chance
[1] Eric Shelton CAR 24.2 - Flop, could he get a clean slate with new OC?
[1] Kevan Barlow 28.7 [UFA] - Enters the Anthony Thomas portion of his career
[1] Noah Herron GB 25.4 - Role player
[1] Marcel Shipp 29.1 - 2007 TD Vulture?
[1] Samkon Gado HOU 24.8 - Last November & December seem like so long ago
[1] Alvin Pearman JAX 25.1 - 3rd down back
[1] Michael Pittman TB 32.0
[1] Jerome Harrison CLE 24.5 - If he couldn't force his way onto the field this year, how good can he be? Seriously.
[1] Ron Dayne [UFA] 29.5
[1] Darren Sproles SD 24.2
[1] Andre Hall DEN 25.0 - His chance never materialized
Nice, Morecny should be higher....(lol)
Anyway i like the point scale, i brought that up awhile back.
Keep up the good work.
I would rate Maroney over R.Brown as he is only 22 and has the opportunity to be studly..also he's in a better offense.
Anyway i like the point scale, i brought that up awhile back.
Keep up the good work.
I would rate Maroney over R.Brown as he is only 22 and has the opportunity to be studly..also he's in a better offense.
Great stuff!! Extremely impressive!!
Solid rankings Fear -Thanks.
Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. As I've mentioned before, it definitely makes it easier to find the motivation for this kind of effort when feedback is involved. 
to us.
Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport.
Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution.
To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.
I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
to us.Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport.
Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution.
To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.
I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
Great man, just great. Have the thread bookmarked and refer to it often when trying to get a second opinion on dynasty value.
Great thread Fear.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TIER ONE
[95] Steve Smith CAR 28.3 - No obvious choice at #1; Smith still the most consistently unstoppable
[93] Larry Fitzgerald ARI 24.0 - Good young QB, heavily targeted, possession WR + mega-redzone threat
[91] Chad Johnson CIN 29.6 - Could be #1 with more consistency
[88] Torry Holt STL 31.3 - 178 targets in '06, most in 3 years
[87] Roy Williams DET 25.7 - This is the year he makes the leap to elite WR
[84] Andre Johnson HOU 26.2 - A QB change could bring back the dominant early '06 Johnson
[80] Reggie Wayne IND 28.8 - Steady
TIER TWO
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[74] Javon Walker DEN 28.9 - Hit-and-miss, but gets in the end zone more than most
[72] Marques Colston NO 24.3 - Should avoid pitfalls of sophomore slump with combo of Brees & Payton's offense
[71] Anquan Boldin ARI 26.9 - Practically disappeared in the 2nd half of the season; doesn't get in the end zone enough
[70] Marvin Harrison IND 35.0 - Undervalued each of the last 3 years b/c of age concerns, but I think this is the year at 35 that he'll be over-ranked b/c he topped '06 WR production
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
[67] Hines Ward PIT 31.5 - Drastically underrated year in and year out
[65] Randy Moss OAK* 30.6 - What are the odds he has Favre throwing him the ball next year? I think his value is much higher outside of Oakland.
TIER THREE
[60] Donald Driver GB 32.6 - Targeted a whopping 171 times in '06, probably due for a slight downtick in '07
[57] Plaxico Burress NYG 30.1 - High knucklehead factor, tends to disappear at times which makes him borderline unreliable
[55] T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 29.9 - 3rd most talented WR on his team, but still highly productive in a great situation; do not count on a repeat of '06 career year
[54] Santana Moss WAS 28.3 - Inconsistency personified
[53] Reggie Brown PHI 26.7 - Was absolutely fantastic with Stallworth out of the lineup last season; as long as McNabb is healthy, Brown as the #1 in Philly is going to produce
[52] Darrell Jackson SEA 28.8 - Injury-prone + concern over possible trade; if he does stay in Seattle, I'll move him up a few spots
[50] Braylon Edwards CLE 24.5 - Some diva issues in '06, but could thrive with vet QB
[49] Chris Chambers MIA 29.1 - Still has never had an above average passer throwing him the ball…
[48] Laveranues Coles NYJ 29.7 - I like him, and I still can't move him higher b/c he doesn't get in the end zone
[46] Mark Clayton BAL 25.2 - Came on strong in 2nd half to overtake Mason as the #1 WR in BAL
TIER FOUR
[33] Vincent Jackson SD 24.7 - Becoming a redzone monster; will take over for McCardell in '07 but how many targets to expect?
[33] Donte Stallworth NE 26.8 - While staying in Philly was best case scenario, I think New England is much better than TEN or MIA
[33] Matt Jones JAX 24.4 - I think he'll make huge strides in '07
[32] Santonio Holmes PIT 23.5 - Came on strong to end the season, looks great after the catch
[32] Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 25.3 - Career year? Possibly…but looked good as possession WR
[31] Bernard Berrian CHI 26.7 - Arrived on the scene in '07, deepthreat leapfrogged Muhammad to become Bears top WR
[30] Drew Bennett STL 29.0 - Joins a good situation in STL, playing slot for a year then Bruce's replacement; value should climb in '08
[30] Brandon Marshall DEN 23.5 - Risky ranking, long on potential, but has the talent to be an impact WR
[29] Kevin Curtis PHI 29.2 - Great fit in Philly
[29] Greg Jennings GB 24.0 - Impressive '06 start dampened by ankle injury; Moss rumors won't go away
[28] Joey Galloway TB 35.8 - Age a concern at almost 36, but still very startable with steady QB play
[27] Devery Henderson NO 25.5 - If he's #2 in New Orleans, he could become startable in your lineup
[25] #Chris Henry CIN 24.3 - Always a risk for suspension, but no-doubt top 20 talent if he can stay clean
[25] Deion Branch SEA 28.2 - Overrated fantasy WR, outplayed by D.J. Hackett in SEA, never had more than one 100 yd game in a season
[23] Terry Glenn DAL 33.2 - Knees? Age? Future? I'll let someone else deal with him
[22] Ronald Curry OAK 28.4 - Closed out '06 like he closed out '04; averaged over 8 catches per game in the last 4
TIER FIVE
[14] Mike Furrey DET 30.4 - McDonald's signing is a far sight better for Furrey than Curtis would have been
[14] Brandon Jones TEN 24.9 - Another casualty of the Shark Pool Hype Machine?
[13] Reggie Williams JAX 24.4 - Incremental improvements every year, but can't seem to put it all together
[13] #Antonio Bryant [UFA] 26.5 - Certainly wears out his welcome wherever he goes
[12] Joe Horn ATL 35.6 - A extra-motivated Horn is a good signing for Atlanta -- if he stays healthy...not a given at age 35
[12] Muhsin Muhammad CHI 34.4 - Age becoming a factor, but could still produce WR3 numbers with a good QB
[12] D.J. Hackett SEA 26.1 [RFA] - Outplaying more heralded SEA WRs
[11] Mark Bradley CHI 25.5 - Healthy now, will see the field more in '07
[11] Isaac Bruce STL 34.8 - I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him weekly at age 35; Bennett's arrival drains a little value
TIER SIX
[8] Wes Welker NE 26.3 - For what it took to get him, could play interesting role in Pats' offense
[8] Ashley Lelie SF 27.5 - Takes over the Antonio Bryant role
[8] Demetrius Williams BAL 24.5 - Impressive as 3rd WR, may start by 2008
[7] Hank Baskett PHI 25.0 - Impressive pre-season, extremely impressive in Week 17 mop-up time; value deflates a bit with Curtis signing
[7] #Chad Jackson NE 22.5 - Injured again, waiting more definitive word; could miss camps or could miss season
[7] Troy Willliamson MIN 24.4 - Awesome speed, dreadful hands & reactions; still just 24, can he turn it around?
[6] Jerry Porter OAK 29.2 - Clean slate with Kiffin? Or likely to be dealt?
[6] Derrick Mason BAL 33.6 - Slipping…
[5] Michael Clayton TB 25.1 - Living off rookie season, can he get some value back in '07?
[5] Bryant Johnson ARI 26.5 - A fantasy starter on a different NFL team? Doubtful…we may see by '08
[4] Michael Jenkins ATL 25.3 - Good redzone weapon, poor all over the rest of the field
[4] Arnaz Battle SF 27.5 - Poor man's Hines Ward…what's that worth in fantasy football?
[4] Terrance Copper NO 25.5 [RFA] - Could he leapfrog Devery Henderson and start opposite Colston? RFA may sign offer sheet elsewhere.
TIER SEVEN
[3] Eddie Kennison KC 34.6 - Borderline startable, but actually sat on waiver wire half the season in my league
[3] Derek Hagan MIA 23.0
[3] Mike Williams DET 23.7 - Knucklehead, but at least he saw the field finally; at 23 still time to turn it around
[3] Keyshawn Johnson CAR 35.2 - Close to the end, bye week filler
[3] Joe Jurevicius CLE 32.7 - Startable in spurts with good QB play, but going on 33 years old
[3] Roddy White ATL 25.8 - Was a 1st round reach, but probably too early to write him off
[3] Marty Booker MIA 31.1 - Came on strong, but was actually only startable a couple of games; Dolphins looking for an upgrade
[3] Sinorice Moss NYG 23.7 - Wasted year; will be interesting to watch Eli Manning trying to hit a 5'8" target
[3] Reche Caldwell NE 28.5 - Loses value with Stallworth signing & poor playoff showing
[2] Patrick Crayton DAL 28.4 [RFA] - 3rd WR role probably suits him best
[2] Maurice Stovall TB 22.5 - Can he steal some of Michael Clayton's playing time?
[2] Jeff Webb KC 24.6 - Won't take much to steal Samie Parker's #2 WR role in '07
[2] Nate Washington PIT 24.0 - Impressive as playmaking 3rd WR
[2] Drew Carter CAR 26.0 [RFA] - Ceiling looks like promising deep threat
[2] Nate Burleson SEA 26.0 - What happened?
[2] Kelley Washington NE 28.0 - Can't wait to see the look on Bellichick's face when The Squirrel breaks out his first down dance
TIER EIGHT
[1] Eric Moulds [UFA] 34.2 - I've been holding out hope for old times sake, but the numbers say he's just about done
[1] Shaun McDonald DET 26.3 - New slot WR in DET
[1] Jabar Gaffney NE 26.8 - It doesn't look like his impressive playoff performance will earn him a more prominent role afterall
[1] #Brandon Stokley [UFA] 31.2 - Could regain some value if he signs with hometown Saints
[1] Kevin Walter HOU 26.1 - Could see increased role with Moulds gone, but I still expect Texans to add a #2
[1] #Amani Toomer NYG 33.0
[1] Malcom Floyd SD 26.0
[1] Jason Avant PHI 24.4 - Could have some value if Stallworth signs elsewhere
[1] Ernest Wilford JAX 28.6 [RFA]
[1] #David Givens TEN 27.0
[1] Bobby Engram [UFA] 34.7 - Could have some value if he signs for a year or two with the Saints
[1] Brad Smith NYJ 23.7
[1] Travis Wilson CLE 23.5
[1] #Koren Robinson GB 27.5 - Packers don't appear to be keeping his seat warm
TIER ONE
[95] Steve Smith CAR 28.3 - No obvious choice at #1; Smith still the most consistently unstoppable
[93] Larry Fitzgerald ARI 24.0 - Good young QB, heavily targeted, possession WR + mega-redzone threat
[91] Chad Johnson CIN 29.6 - Could be #1 with more consistency
[88] Torry Holt STL 31.3 - 178 targets in '06, most in 3 years
[87] Roy Williams DET 25.7 - This is the year he makes the leap to elite WR
[84] Andre Johnson HOU 26.2 - A QB change could bring back the dominant early '06 Johnson
[80] Reggie Wayne IND 28.8 - Steady
TIER TWO
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[74] Javon Walker DEN 28.9 - Hit-and-miss, but gets in the end zone more than most
[72] Marques Colston NO 24.3 - Should avoid pitfalls of sophomore slump with combo of Brees & Payton's offense
[71] Anquan Boldin ARI 26.9 - Practically disappeared in the 2nd half of the season; doesn't get in the end zone enough
[70] Marvin Harrison IND 35.0 - Undervalued each of the last 3 years b/c of age concerns, but I think this is the year at 35 that he'll be over-ranked b/c he topped '06 WR production
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
[67] Hines Ward PIT 31.5 - Drastically underrated year in and year out
[65] Randy Moss OAK* 30.6 - What are the odds he has Favre throwing him the ball next year? I think his value is much higher outside of Oakland.
TIER THREE
[60] Donald Driver GB 32.6 - Targeted a whopping 171 times in '06, probably due for a slight downtick in '07
[57] Plaxico Burress NYG 30.1 - High knucklehead factor, tends to disappear at times which makes him borderline unreliable
[55] T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 29.9 - 3rd most talented WR on his team, but still highly productive in a great situation; do not count on a repeat of '06 career year
[54] Santana Moss WAS 28.3 - Inconsistency personified
[53] Reggie Brown PHI 26.7 - Was absolutely fantastic with Stallworth out of the lineup last season; as long as McNabb is healthy, Brown as the #1 in Philly is going to produce
[52] Darrell Jackson SEA 28.8 - Injury-prone + concern over possible trade; if he does stay in Seattle, I'll move him up a few spots
[50] Braylon Edwards CLE 24.5 - Some diva issues in '06, but could thrive with vet QB
[49] Chris Chambers MIA 29.1 - Still has never had an above average passer throwing him the ball…
[48] Laveranues Coles NYJ 29.7 - I like him, and I still can't move him higher b/c he doesn't get in the end zone
[46] Mark Clayton BAL 25.2 - Came on strong in 2nd half to overtake Mason as the #1 WR in BAL
TIER FOUR
[33] Vincent Jackson SD 24.7 - Becoming a redzone monster; will take over for McCardell in '07 but how many targets to expect?
[33] Donte Stallworth NE 26.8 - While staying in Philly was best case scenario, I think New England is much better than TEN or MIA
[33] Matt Jones JAX 24.4 - I think he'll make huge strides in '07
[32] Santonio Holmes PIT 23.5 - Came on strong to end the season, looks great after the catch
[32] Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 25.3 - Career year? Possibly…but looked good as possession WR
[31] Bernard Berrian CHI 26.7 - Arrived on the scene in '07, deepthreat leapfrogged Muhammad to become Bears top WR
[30] Drew Bennett STL 29.0 - Joins a good situation in STL, playing slot for a year then Bruce's replacement; value should climb in '08
[30] Brandon Marshall DEN 23.5 - Risky ranking, long on potential, but has the talent to be an impact WR
[29] Kevin Curtis PHI 29.2 - Great fit in Philly
[29] Greg Jennings GB 24.0 - Impressive '06 start dampened by ankle injury; Moss rumors won't go away
[28] Joey Galloway TB 35.8 - Age a concern at almost 36, but still very startable with steady QB play
[27] Devery Henderson NO 25.5 - If he's #2 in New Orleans, he could become startable in your lineup
[25] #Chris Henry CIN 24.3 - Always a risk for suspension, but no-doubt top 20 talent if he can stay clean
[25] Deion Branch SEA 28.2 - Overrated fantasy WR, outplayed by D.J. Hackett in SEA, never had more than one 100 yd game in a season
[23] Terry Glenn DAL 33.2 - Knees? Age? Future? I'll let someone else deal with him
[22] Ronald Curry OAK 28.4 - Closed out '06 like he closed out '04; averaged over 8 catches per game in the last 4
TIER FIVE
[14] Mike Furrey DET 30.4 - McDonald's signing is a far sight better for Furrey than Curtis would have been
[14] Brandon Jones TEN 24.9 - Another casualty of the Shark Pool Hype Machine?
[13] Reggie Williams JAX 24.4 - Incremental improvements every year, but can't seem to put it all together
[13] #Antonio Bryant [UFA] 26.5 - Certainly wears out his welcome wherever he goes
[12] Joe Horn ATL 35.6 - A extra-motivated Horn is a good signing for Atlanta -- if he stays healthy...not a given at age 35
[12] Muhsin Muhammad CHI 34.4 - Age becoming a factor, but could still produce WR3 numbers with a good QB
[12] D.J. Hackett SEA 26.1 [RFA] - Outplaying more heralded SEA WRs
[11] Mark Bradley CHI 25.5 - Healthy now, will see the field more in '07
[11] Isaac Bruce STL 34.8 - I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him weekly at age 35; Bennett's arrival drains a little value
TIER SIX
[8] Wes Welker NE 26.3 - For what it took to get him, could play interesting role in Pats' offense
[8] Ashley Lelie SF 27.5 - Takes over the Antonio Bryant role
[8] Demetrius Williams BAL 24.5 - Impressive as 3rd WR, may start by 2008
[7] Hank Baskett PHI 25.0 - Impressive pre-season, extremely impressive in Week 17 mop-up time; value deflates a bit with Curtis signing
[7] #Chad Jackson NE 22.5 - Injured again, waiting more definitive word; could miss camps or could miss season
[7] Troy Willliamson MIN 24.4 - Awesome speed, dreadful hands & reactions; still just 24, can he turn it around?
[6] Jerry Porter OAK 29.2 - Clean slate with Kiffin? Or likely to be dealt?
[6] Derrick Mason BAL 33.6 - Slipping…
[5] Michael Clayton TB 25.1 - Living off rookie season, can he get some value back in '07?
[5] Bryant Johnson ARI 26.5 - A fantasy starter on a different NFL team? Doubtful…we may see by '08
[4] Michael Jenkins ATL 25.3 - Good redzone weapon, poor all over the rest of the field
[4] Arnaz Battle SF 27.5 - Poor man's Hines Ward…what's that worth in fantasy football?
[4] Terrance Copper NO 25.5 [RFA] - Could he leapfrog Devery Henderson and start opposite Colston? RFA may sign offer sheet elsewhere.
TIER SEVEN
[3] Eddie Kennison KC 34.6 - Borderline startable, but actually sat on waiver wire half the season in my league
[3] Derek Hagan MIA 23.0
[3] Mike Williams DET 23.7 - Knucklehead, but at least he saw the field finally; at 23 still time to turn it around
[3] Keyshawn Johnson CAR 35.2 - Close to the end, bye week filler
[3] Joe Jurevicius CLE 32.7 - Startable in spurts with good QB play, but going on 33 years old
[3] Roddy White ATL 25.8 - Was a 1st round reach, but probably too early to write him off
[3] Marty Booker MIA 31.1 - Came on strong, but was actually only startable a couple of games; Dolphins looking for an upgrade
[3] Sinorice Moss NYG 23.7 - Wasted year; will be interesting to watch Eli Manning trying to hit a 5'8" target
[3] Reche Caldwell NE 28.5 - Loses value with Stallworth signing & poor playoff showing
[2] Patrick Crayton DAL 28.4 [RFA] - 3rd WR role probably suits him best
[2] Maurice Stovall TB 22.5 - Can he steal some of Michael Clayton's playing time?
[2] Jeff Webb KC 24.6 - Won't take much to steal Samie Parker's #2 WR role in '07
[2] Nate Washington PIT 24.0 - Impressive as playmaking 3rd WR
[2] Drew Carter CAR 26.0 [RFA] - Ceiling looks like promising deep threat
[2] Nate Burleson SEA 26.0 - What happened?
[2] Kelley Washington NE 28.0 - Can't wait to see the look on Bellichick's face when The Squirrel breaks out his first down dance
TIER EIGHT
[1] Eric Moulds [UFA] 34.2 - I've been holding out hope for old times sake, but the numbers say he's just about done
[1] Shaun McDonald DET 26.3 - New slot WR in DET
[1] Jabar Gaffney NE 26.8 - It doesn't look like his impressive playoff performance will earn him a more prominent role afterall
[1] #Brandon Stokley [UFA] 31.2 - Could regain some value if he signs with hometown Saints
[1] Kevin Walter HOU 26.1 - Could see increased role with Moulds gone, but I still expect Texans to add a #2
[1] #Amani Toomer NYG 33.0
[1] Malcom Floyd SD 26.0
[1] Jason Avant PHI 24.4 - Could have some value if Stallworth signs elsewhere
[1] Ernest Wilford JAX 28.6 [RFA]
[1] #David Givens TEN 27.0
[1] Bobby Engram [UFA] 34.7 - Could have some value if he signs for a year or two with the Saints
[1] Brad Smith NYJ 23.7
[1] Travis Wilson CLE 23.5
[1] #Koren Robinson GB 27.5 - Packers don't appear to be keeping his seat warm
How did you create this point scale 1-100 for each player? And what does it mean?
I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.
Curious about what is behind your point scale.
Great thread Fear and Loathing.
I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.
Curious about what is behind your point scale.
Great thread Fear and Loathing.
TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
[51] L.J. Smith PHI 27.4 - Not overly exciting, but he produces most weeks
[46] Heath Miller PIT 24.9 - Impressive rookie season, but disappointing production in '06
[45] Tony Scheffler DEN 24.5 - Great rapport with Cutler, future is bright
[40] Dallas Clark IND 28.2 - Dominates the playoffs then disappoints in the next regular season
[35] Ben Troupe TEN 25.0 - Great buy low candidate
[34] Marcedes Lewis JAX 23.3 - Needs to take a big step forward in '07
[33] Randy McMichael STL 28.2 - Yet another weapon for an impressive-looking Rams offense, but I doubt he'll see the ball as much as he did in MIA
[28] Alex Smith TB 25.3 - When will we find out how good he is?
[25] Desmond Clark CHI 30.4 - Career year, age 30 to start '07
TIER THREE
[19] Owen Daniels HOU 24.8 - Sage Rosenfels' #1 receiver…so he's got that going for him
[15] Eric Johnson NO 28.0 - Best-case scenario with Saints
[13] Jerramy Stevens [UFA] 27.8 -
[9] Dave Thomas NE 24.2 - Looked good in a couple games late in the season, likely takes Graham's place
[9] Daniel Graham DEN 28.8 - He blocks so Scheffler can catch
TIER FOUR
[4] Leonard Pope ARI 24.0
[4] Kris Wilson KC 26.0 - Roadblocked by the Gonzalez re-signing
[3] Bo Scaife TEN 26.6 - Couldn't take advantage of Troupe's absence
[3] Jeff King CAR 23.5 - I have a good feeling about his future
[2] Joe Klopfenstein STL 23.8
[2] Chris Baker NYJ 27.8
[2] Vishante Shiancoe MIN 27.3
[2] Ben Utecht IND 26.2 [RFA]
[1] George Wrighster JAX 26.4
[1] Anthony Fasano DAL 23.4
[1] Delanie Walker SF 23.1
[1] Jermaine Wiggins [UFA] 32.6
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
[51] L.J. Smith PHI 27.4 - Not overly exciting, but he produces most weeks
[46] Heath Miller PIT 24.9 - Impressive rookie season, but disappointing production in '06
[45] Tony Scheffler DEN 24.5 - Great rapport with Cutler, future is bright
[40] Dallas Clark IND 28.2 - Dominates the playoffs then disappoints in the next regular season
[35] Ben Troupe TEN 25.0 - Great buy low candidate
[34] Marcedes Lewis JAX 23.3 - Needs to take a big step forward in '07
[33] Randy McMichael STL 28.2 - Yet another weapon for an impressive-looking Rams offense, but I doubt he'll see the ball as much as he did in MIA
[28] Alex Smith TB 25.3 - When will we find out how good he is?
[25] Desmond Clark CHI 30.4 - Career year, age 30 to start '07
TIER THREE
[19] Owen Daniels HOU 24.8 - Sage Rosenfels' #1 receiver…so he's got that going for him
[15] Eric Johnson NO 28.0 - Best-case scenario with Saints
[13] Jerramy Stevens [UFA] 27.8 -
[9] Dave Thomas NE 24.2 - Looked good in a couple games late in the season, likely takes Graham's place
[9] Daniel Graham DEN 28.8 - He blocks so Scheffler can catch
TIER FOUR
[4] Leonard Pope ARI 24.0
[4] Kris Wilson KC 26.0 - Roadblocked by the Gonzalez re-signing
[3] Bo Scaife TEN 26.6 - Couldn't take advantage of Troupe's absence
[3] Jeff King CAR 23.5 - I have a good feeling about his future
[2] Joe Klopfenstein STL 23.8
[2] Chris Baker NYJ 27.8
[2] Vishante Shiancoe MIN 27.3
[2] Ben Utecht IND 26.2 [RFA]
[1] George Wrighster JAX 26.4
[1] Anthony Fasano DAL 23.4
[1] Delanie Walker SF 23.1
[1] Jermaine Wiggins [UFA] 32.6
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 01:54 AM)
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...
And you are a TO hater
QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ Mar 15 2007, 05:42 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 01:54 AM)
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...
In my 3 leagues, Evans ranked as the #4, #5, and #7 (I'm not sure about FBG scoring) WR last year. Unless you think Losman will get worse, or losing McGahee will kill the offense, I don't see how #8 on this list is "tooooo high... "I won't say it's too low, as the 7 above are all exceptional as well, but he should be in tier one IMO.
QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ Mar 15 2007, 05:42 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 01:54 AM)
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...
And you are a TO hater
You do realize this is a dynasty ranking correct? Losman played pretty well last year. There are bigger QB question marks about some of the guys higher than him, particularly AJ and Roy. Evans had 800 yards and 6 TDs in the last 8 games last year, only one of those games with less than 50 yards.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 07:18 PM)
Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. As I've mentioned before, it definitely makes it easier to find the motivation for this kind of effort when feedback is involved. to us.
Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport.
Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution.
To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.
I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
to us.Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport.
Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution.
To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.
I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
Fair enough on the rookies. This is my first dynasty off season so I am really thankful for your posts.
A couple questions though.
Looks like you are saying that you almost can not over pay to move up and get one of the top 2 picks, is that a fair representation of how much you like Johnson and Peterson?
My dynasty league gives ridiculous points for return yards (Wes Welker was a top 5 WR), Do you think Ginn's speed and skills will translate ( ala Hester) immediately in the return game even if he struggles as a WR?
Thanks again.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 02:58 AM)
TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
I would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Mar 15 2007, 09:05 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 02:58 AM)
TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
I would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.
60-100 is a big tier Again, great, great thread IMO. Thanks much for all your work and for sharing your insights, F&L. Your efforts are greatly appreciated by many here.
No questioning of the rankings from me. Whenever I'm kind of surprised where you have someone, I review all the evidence -- and I wind up agreeing with you.
Uh, ... F&L ... , would you mind deleting this thread? (now that I've got QB/RB/WR/TE printed out)
No questioning of the rankings from me. Whenever I'm kind of surprised where you have someone, I review all the evidence -- and I wind up agreeing with you.
Uh, ... F&L ... , would you mind deleting this thread? (now that I've got QB/RB/WR/TE printed out)
QUOTE (Biabreakable @ Mar 15 2007, 03:40 AM)
How did you create this point scale 1-100 for each player? And what does it mean?
I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.
Curious about what is behind your point scale.
Great thread Fear and Loathing.
I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.
Curious about what is behind your point scale.
Great thread Fear and Loathing.
Fair question. Let's see here...
I used to toy around with those kinds of point scales based on handing out 1-10 points per category and tallying them all up to see who goes where. There are several problems with these systems. First of all, not all categories are created equal. Secondly, it's an unscientific grade that you're assigning each category, so it's nonsensical to aim for a scientific outcome. Finally, I'm never satisfied with the outcomes. For example, somebody like Culpepper will end up finishing way too high. And then you have to start fudging with the numbers to get him lower. Then if you're fudging his, you end up messing with a few others as well. To sum up, I've found those types of scales to be literally more trouble than the spreadsheet they're printed on are worth.
Frankly, these rankings are not very scientific. There are two reasons for that. First, the goal is not a complex one: per requests in other dynasty threads, I'm simply trying to better represent value by showing where the gaps are and using a system that assigns value much better than a simple 1 thru 75 numbering sequence. Secondly, I think we're overloaded with numbers, studies, etc. anymore. Ten years ago, most of us in this thread dominated all of our leagues strictly as a result of having more information than the other guys in our leagues. The internet changed all of that now. Everybody has access to quality information on a regular basis. Fantasy football studies are ubiquitous...especially on this site (which is a great thing). So what happens when everybody is looking at the same studies? Opinions vary much less because we tend to fall in line behind "proof" and hesitantly push our instincts and gut-feelings to the side. How then do we gain an edge on the guys looking at the same information?
My theory is this: if we all have ready access to the same information, how do you gain an edge on the upper echelon competition? Instincts honed by knowledge, which is honed by news updates, stats, trends and studies. That's what these rankings are in a nutshell. Instincts. There's no statistical or scientific basis to the numbers, but rather an attempt at showing differences in value as I perceive them.
QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ Mar 15 2007, 06:42 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 01:54 AM)
[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...
And you are a TO hater
Oz summed up Lee Evans pretty well by showing that he's already scoring in the top 5-7, so a ranking of 8 is far from "tooooo high."
But I would add that I'm with you on Losman. I'm not a believer. I think he played as well in the 2nd half of last season as he will from here on out. I think he's as good now as he's going to get, and I'm not overly impressed with where he's at now. But my point on Evans is this: remember those old arguments in the '80s & '90s? Does Rice make Montana a better QB than he really is? Does Montana make Rice a better WR than he really is? Ditto Young & Rice. Well, it's my belief that Lee Evans, more than any WR in the league, makes his QB look like a better QB than he actually is. Lee Evans is a very good WR.
And I'm far from a T.O. hater. I actually believe he provides a useful, if annoying, role in the NFL. If blowhards like Chris Berman & Joe Buck (among a legion of others) are going to take the game to new levels of hallowed-ness, T.O. serves to remind us that it is, after all, just another form of entertainment. If the media would ignore him, it would stop...but that's not how ESPN works. I can't watch that station anymore because I know that the lead story, whether we have interest or not, is going to be either Bonds, T.O., Barbaro, Bob Knight or Pete Rose. T.O. is only the latest in the line of Madonna, Jose Canseco & Dennis Rodman. There's a very lucrative career to be made by pushing the buttons of a reactionary media and uptight middle America. And if you're one who enjoys a laugh at the expense of the media & the more uptight members of our society, then it can provide some quality amusement.
The bottom line with T.O. is that he's always a risk for suspension, or walking away, or something even more bizarre that I'm not creative enough to figure out. On top of that, he's almost 34 years old. Age and unreliability are two alarming negatives. I'd take him on my team, and I think the guys who took him in the recent dynasty drafts on these boards, have made outstanding picks. But as a general rule, the guys I've ranked ahead of him are younger, very talented and altogether "safer."
QUOTE (TeamDingo @ Mar 15 2007, 09:37 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 14 2007, 07:18 PM)
Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. As I've mentioned before, it definitely makes it easier to find the motivation for this kind of effort when feedback is involved.
to us.Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport.
Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution.
To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.
I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
Fair enough on the rookies. This is my first dynasty off season so I am really thankful for your posts.
A couple questions though.
Looks like you are saying that you almost can not over pay to move up and get one of the top 2 picks, is that a fair representation of how much you like Johnson and Peterson?
My dynasty league gives ridiculous points for return yards (Wes Welker was a top 5 WR), Do you think Ginn's speed and skills will translate ( ala Hester) immediately in the return game even if he struggles as a WR?
Thanks again.
I think it's possible to overpay. Obviously, I wouldn't be giving up guys like Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, L.J., etc. to move up. It's tough to accurately gauge those guys until we find out where they're playing, but I would seriously put Peterson at #6 among RBs in most situations. If the Raiders draft Calvin Johnson, it would knock him down a few pegs in my book. I love Larry Fitzgerald. I traded Moss for him after his rookie season, and I can't see him not being on my team. But I don't think there's any doubt that Calvin Johnson is more talented than Fitz. In the right situation, I could see Calvin Johnson as the #1 or #2 dynasty WR.
Do I think Ginn's speed will translate immediately in the return game? Yes. I don't think he'll go Hester on the league because Hester has only happened once in the history of the league. And it remains to be seen how Ginn will be used by his team, but I do think his speed will translate in the return game.
QUOTE (fruity pebbles @ Mar 15 2007, 10:08 AM)
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Mar 15 2007, 09:05 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 02:58 AM)
TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
I would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.
60-100 is a big tierThanks for the comments.
I'd say that part of this is TE's are a unique position relative to the others. You're only using one, and there are only about 20-22 at any given time that have any real value. Those 10 guys in Tier One are all there because all 10 of them could be the #2 TE for the next couple of seasons. If you have any one of these ten TE's, then you are set at the TE position. After these ten guys, there are questions about whether you are actually set at that position or not.
It's pretty clear from Gates' rank and the comment that he stands alone. I'm not going to bother making him a tier unto himself.
I wouldn't put a tier between Shockey & Watson because I think they're too close in value in dynasty leagues.
I didn't see a natural fall-off until after Witten. If you would like it broken down differently, you can always ignore the tiers and use the scale instead.
QUOTE (Driver @ Mar 15 2007, 11:14 AM)
Again, great, great thread IMO. Thanks much for all your work and for sharing your insights, F&L. Your efforts are greatly appreciated by many here.
No questioning of the rankings from me. Whenever I'm kind of surprised where you have someone, I review all the evidence -- and I wind up agreeing with you.
Uh, ... F&L ... , would you mind deleting this thread? (now that I've got QB/RB/WR/TE printed out)
No questioning of the rankings from me. Whenever I'm kind of surprised where you have someone, I review all the evidence -- and I wind up agreeing with you.
Uh, ... F&L ... , would you mind deleting this thread? (now that I've got QB/RB/WR/TE printed out)
Thanks for all of the positive reinforcement, Driver (and others). It's always nice to know the work is appreciated.
I lost my kicker & Def. rankings from the front page...I think the original post got too long, and it kicked them out. I'll try to work on them soon, but this is a bad weekend for wasting time on fantasy football. St. Patrick's Day weekend in Savannah is like the minor league version of Mardi Gras in New Orleans -- an area of 150,000 swells to well over a million.
Starting
Not the recipe for a productive weekend.
F&L..........Excellent thread full of great info and timely feedback.........
Thanx for the effort in keeping this thread alive..........
Fin
Thanx for the effort in keeping this thread alive..........
Fin
Kevin Curtis signed with the Eagles where would he be ranked?
QUOTE (Benchwarmers @ Mar 15 2007, 06:01 PM)
Kevin Curtis signed with the Eagles where would he be ranked?
I beat you to it. See above...
I like Curtis more than most, and I like his fit in Philly. I think he's squarely in the Cotchery-Berrian-Santonio Holmes section of WRs.
As the Kevin Curtis thread pointed out, he's commonly misperceived as a pesky little white possession WR like a Brian Brennan or Tom Waddle. He's actually one of the fastest WRs in the league and should be able to replace Stallworth as the deep threat.
Edit to add: I play in a playoff-included league where we keep 11 guys with a limit of 4 per position (WR/TE counts as one position). As of right now, I'm going to have to decide on my 4th WR/TE from a group of Vincent Jackson, Dante Stallworth, Kevin Curtis & L.J. Smith. I'm leaning towards Jackson or Curtis while trying to deal Stallworth & Smith for draft picks.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 03:41 PM)
The bottom line with T.O. is that he's always a risk for suspension, or walking away, or something even more bizarre that I'm not creative enough to figure out. On top of that, he's almost 34 years old. Age and unreliability are two alarming negatives. I'd take him on my team, and I think the guys who took him in the recent dynasty drafts on these boards, have made outstanding picks. But as a general rule, the guys I've ranked ahead of him are younger, very talented and altogether "safer."
I agree 100%. If I can't get one of the top-7 WRs, then I really will try to get either Evans or Walker or Colston or Boldin. I almost consider Harrison, TO, HWard and RMoss to be a 3rd tier -- only because of age for Marvin and TO, uncertainty about Moss (even if he goes to GB), and Ward being undervalued and usually dropping anyway. QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 03:28 PM)
My theory is this: if we all have ready access to the same information, how do you gain an edge on the upper echelon competition? Instincts honed by knowledge, which is honed by news updates, stats, trends and studies. That's what these rankings are in a nutshell. Instincts. There's no statistical or scientific basis to the numbers, but rather an attempt at showing differences in value as I perceive them.
Yup, I'd concur with that theory. My analogy would be a chess master. What distinguishes the very highest-level chess masters is an intuitive ability to assess the current position of a chessboard and determine the best move through evaluation of hundreds of possibilities involving many sequences of future moves. It requires (1) substantial experience, (2) mental processing of tons of information, and (3) the correct interpretation of complex patterns. But it comes down to a gut feeling, or instinct, that a certain decision (or ranking) is correct.
I'm not in that category, but I appreciate the work of someone who is. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and insights.
The information in this thread is great.
F&L - Thank you for your time and willingness to share the info. It is greatly appreciated. The 100-1 idea has so much value when comparing players to see how much better #3 is than #4 or #5.
Great work - Thanks again.
F&L - Thank you for your time and willingness to share the info. It is greatly appreciated. The 100-1 idea has so much value when comparing players to see how much better #3 is than #4 or #5.
Great work - Thanks again.
MUCH APPRECIATED!
Hands down the best post I've seen this offseason. Lots of points to ponder, Great Job!
Hands down the best post I've seen this offseason. Lots of points to ponder, Great Job!
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Mar 15 2007, 04:15 PM)
I lost my kicker & Def. rankings from the front page...I think the original post got too long, and it kicked them out. I'll try to work on them soon, but this is a bad weekend for wasting time on fantasy football. St. Patrick's Day weekend in Savannah is like the minor league version of Mardi Gras in New Orleans -- an area of 150,000 swells to well over a million.
StartingFriday night Thursday night, I will be
Not the recipe for a productive weekend.
Starting
Not the recipe for a productive weekend.
Also wanted to chime in that your work is greatly appreciated. I've been a long-time FF owner, but this is my first crack at dynasty to it's nice to see some general perspective of how much youth & potential really matter. I don't have the dynasty experience yet to properly assess
Oh, and you should come to NYC for St. Patty's. That's like the Pro Bowl version of Mardi Gras
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