QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 09:02 AM) 
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
I think Roethlisberger and/or Cutler might fit this. Both have emerging #1 young WRs in Holmes & Marshall, both have good pedigree. I would say percieved value right now would be Romo > Big Ben > Cutler, this will widen if Romo leads Dallas to the superbowl. However, as we know that rank order could completely change next year. Some people didn't foresee Romo as top 10 this year, let alone top 5.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 10:02 AM)
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
For next year only? One guy I'd add who should have a very low price tag is Brett Favre. I think he's back, and the weapons are there, plus everyone has a preaseason together.
Regarding Beck:
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
I have been among those who defended Beck but now after last week I think it is time to drop him. I am looking at Trent Edwards as a possible pick-up because he has done better with his opportunity.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
I totally agree and am drinking the Reggie Williams Kool Aid too. He is clearly their best WR and even Del Rocko will figure that out eventually. Williams finally understands the game and someone pointed out that he is still very young. He is definitely a guy to keep or acquire this off season.QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 9 2007, 07:01 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
Reggie's TD today reinforced what I've seen from him lately. The light seems to be going on and he's starting to become exactly the receiver everyone thought he would be coming out of Washington. He caught a slant over the middle and made a nice play to bounce off a tackle and take it into the end zone.
You can check the play out here:
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d804ee8be
I'm liking Williams more and more each week. I don't think he has superstar potential, but he's a big target who can make some things happen after the catch with his athleticism and running strength. I think he has a chance to maybe become a Moulds or Cotchery type player.
At this point I think his value is similar to that of the guys in your fifth tier.
QUOTE (stevegamer @ Dec 11 2007, 01:19 PM)
Regarding Beck:
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
It's going to be awfully tough to build value from now until the end of the year while he's sitting on the bench with Miss Cleo starting over him. I don't think any of your "likely" scenarios are actually very likely at all.
I agree with az_prof: Trent Edwards is a much better stash than John Beck.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Dec 11 2007, 10:23 AM)
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Nov 29 2007, 12:11 AM)
Well in the spirit of the last post, I am going to go out on a limb and throw in a players name that is not even ranked....
Robert Royal.
He seems to have a good hands and is a huge target. I noticed that Edwards hit him pretty often in the games he played.
With Edwards back we might find that he warrants ranking in a few weeks....
Robert Royal.
He seems to have a good hands and is a huge target. I noticed that Edwards hit him pretty often in the games he played.
With Edwards back we might find that he warrants ranking in a few weeks....
haha... I thought Edwards liked him, but I wasn't expecting this...
Still, he merit a rank somewhere with the rookie looking at him.
I don't mind adding him to the list for those in large leagues with mandatory tight ends. But let's keep in mind what we have here:
A tight end who will be 29-years-old going into '08 with a career high of 233 yards and only one game this season over 40 receiving yards.
If you've been keeping a close eye on the Bills and see a situation where Edwards will be relying on Royal in the passing game, I'll have to take your word for it. But color me skeptical that Royal will ever have fantasy value.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 11 2007, 12:26 PM)
I have been among those who defended Beck but now after last week I think it is time to drop him. I am looking at Trent Edwards as a possible pick-up because he has done better with his opportunity.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
In the end, it is the perceived value of the owner you are trading with that matters. I mentioned Roeth & Cutler because they seemed to fit the "upgrade" description based on the post. If Romo has the lowest percieved value, then by all means, I would go get Romo at a discount versus the other guys. Romo sure looks like a bonafide QB for the next several years.
Lastly, I wouldn't worry about TO at all, of all WRs in the game, not many are in better shape than TO. He probably has at least 3 to 4 years of high production left in him. If he doesn't or gets injured, I don't think Jerry Jones will sit idle without acquiring a weapon.
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 11 2007, 12:46 PM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 09:02 AM)
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
I think Roethlisberger and/or Cutler might fit this. Both have emerging #1 young WRs in Holmes & Marshall, both have good pedigree. I would say percieved value right now would be Romo > Big Ben > Cutler, this will widen if Romo leads Dallas to the superbowl. However, as we know that rank order could completely change next year. Some people didn't foresee Romo as top 10 this year, let alone top 5.
I agree on Roethlisberger & Cutler, but the time to get Big Ben was last offseason. You missed your window of value there.
stevegamer had a good call on Favre. There's no glaring reason to believe he'll retire after the season, and he'd have the same impressive weapons around him. He may not play quite as well as he has this season, but he's a near lock to finish in the Top 10 as long as he plays.
If I was in Burning Sensation's situation and didn't want to pay through the nose for a Top Tier QB, the guy I'd target is Donovan McNabb. We don't know if he'll be back in Philly, but I've counted on him all along to struggle this year coming off the ACL surgery and then to bounce back next season. Next year, being two years removed from the surgery, I think he'll regain some of the lost mobility and accuracy. He's a favorite whipping boy of many in Philly and in the national media, but he's always been a hell of a quarterback.
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 11 2007, 01:44 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 11 2007, 12:26 PM)
I have been among those who defended Beck but now after last week I think it is time to drop him. I am looking at Trent Edwards as a possible pick-up because he has done better with his opportunity.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
In the end, it is the perceived value of the owner you are trading with that matters. I mentioned Roeth & Cutler because they seemed to fit the "upgrade" description based on the post. If Romo has the lowest percieved value, then by all means, I would go get Romo at a discount versus the other guys. Romo sure looks like a bonafide QB for the next several years.
Lastly, I wouldn't worry about TO at all, of all WRs in the game, not many are in better shape than TO. He probably has at least 3 to 4 years of high production left in him. If he doesn't or gets injured, I don't think Jerry Jones will sit idle without acquiring a weapon.
At first blush, it makes sense to consider the T.O. situation with Romo, but it's not his age that scares me off. I agree that it's too early to pencil in a significant age-related decline for T.O.
I wouldn't be looking 3-4 years down the line with a trade of this magnitude.
QUOTE
If I was in Burning Sensation's situation and didn't want to pay through the nose for a Top Tier QB, the guy I'd target is Donovan McNabb. We don't know if he'll be back in Philly, but I've counted on him all along to struggle this year coming off the ACL surgery and then to bounce back next season. Next year, being two years removed from the surgery, I think he'll regain some of the lost mobility and accuracy. He's a favorite whipping boy of many in Philly and in the national media, but he's always been a hell of a quarterback.
i'm actually a believer in McNabb as well, and as a philly homer it terrifys me to watch the Eagles get rid of him in the offseason, because i've had the same outlook, no way he was ready to return the beginning of this year, and it isn't surprising in the least the way this year turned out...I think he can make some moves in other places, if chicago picks up McNabb and a RB...with a declining defense that is starting to get older, i think they play a lot of games from behind and well...thats gonna be $$
what is your outlook on a guy like Delhomme, i've watched him hover around (20) since about week 7 with about 20-25 QBs ranked above him, the start of the season he was top 5 QB and i'm hoping he can return to form in the offseason, 32-33 is starting to get up there in age yeah, but do you not see the potential to return to early 2007 #'s...i mean for a while there Beck was looking like he might surpass Delhomme in value
just kidding i'm not bringing up beck again, i feel like i might be invited to the Beck christmas dinner after the discussions of the last two-three pages QUOTE (2and2is5 @ Dec 11 2007, 02:12 PM)
QUOTE
If I was in Burning Sensation's situation and didn't want to pay through the nose for a Top Tier QB, the guy I'd target is Donovan McNabb. We don't know if he'll be back in Philly, but I've counted on him all along to struggle this year coming off the ACL surgery and then to bounce back next season. Next year, being two years removed from the surgery, I think he'll regain some of the lost mobility and accuracy. He's a favorite whipping boy of many in Philly and in the national media, but he's always been a hell of a quarterback.
i'm actually a believer in McNabb as well, and as a philly homer it terrifys me to watch the Eagles get rid of him in the offseason, because i've had the same outlook, no way he was ready to return the beginning of this year, and it isn't surprising in the least the way this year turned out...I think he can make some moves in other places, if chicago picks up McNabb and a RB...with a declining defense that is starting to get older, i think they play a lot of games from behind and well...thats gonna be $$
what is your outlook on a guy like Delhomme, i've watched him hover around (20) since about week 7 with about 20-25 QBs ranked above him, the start of the season he was top 5 QB and i'm hoping he can return to form in the offseason, 32-33 is starting to get up there in age yeah, but do you not see the potential to return to early 2007 #'s...i mean for a while there Beck was looking like he might surpass Delhomme in value
just kidding i'm not bringing up beck again, i feel like i might be invited to the Beck christmas dinner after the discussions of the last two-three pagesI don't think it's fair to target Delhomme's early 2007 start with the expectation that he'll pick up next season right where he left off in Week 3 of this season. I noticed you managed to put the distasteful 2006 Delhomme season behind you. All of Carolina was itching for a QB change by November/December of last season, and David Carr was actually brought in with the idea that he might replace Delhomme at some point this season.
I think Delhomme is a nice QB to have as your #2 if your #1 is less than Top Tier quality, but he's not a guy I'd want to rely on weekly.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 01:36 PM)
QUOTE (stevegamer @ Dec 11 2007, 01:19 PM)
Regarding Beck:
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
I think he's a reasonable stash & hold because he's the #1 there for next year, and the team is horrid right now with a dearth of talent. Talent situation should improve, which means his value should go up.
Am I convinced he's going to be a top-tier QB? No, but I'm also not convinced he isn't. The real point, though is this:
As a #3 QB on a dynasty roster where you are using the spot to hold someone who may have an uptick and value, he fills the bill - much like Losman did in F&L's example of getting someone cheaply and trading them on. I feel strongly that it is very likely that Beck gains value between now and the start of next year - schedule tapers off, so he's liekly to show a lfash, plus the preseason where it's also likely.
It's going to be awfully tough to build value from now until the end of the year while he's sitting on the bench with Miss Cleo starting over him. I don't think that anything you said is "likely" to happen is actually very likely at all.
I agree with az_prof: Trent Edwards is a much better stash than John Beck.
I completely missed that Beck wasn't still starting. That changes things a lot, and means that the preseason is the only time you might see something from him. QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 11 2007, 12:46 PM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 09:02 AM)
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
I think Roethlisberger and/or Cutler might fit this. Both have emerging #1 young WRs in Holmes & Marshall, both have good pedigree. I would say percieved value right now would be Romo > Big Ben > Cutler, this will widen if Romo leads Dallas to the superbowl. However, as we know that rank order could completely change next year. Some people didn't foresee Romo as top 10 this year, let alone top 5.
Big Ben and Cutler are the two guys i had in mind when looking for options outside Romo.
Outside of Manning, Romo, Palmer, and Brady, i cant think of any QB's worth paying for other than those two. I like Favre, if i can get Rogers with him, but i am not the type of dynasty owner who prefers a one year fix.
Some of you guys thought Owens would be around for a while, but if not, how big of an impact do you think him leaving has on Romo? Again, i think Romo is a good QB, just not sure if he is a top 5 QB without Owens.
If I were looking for a potential top-5 QB and didnt' want to pay top dollar, I'd go for Big Ben, Brees, and Bulger. The last two should cost a lot less then they are worth, especially Bulger.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 01:40 PM)
Big Ben and Cutler are the two guys i had in mind when looking for options outside Romo.
Outside of Manning, Romo, Palmer, and Brady, i cant think of any QB's worth paying for other than those two. I like Favre, if i can get Rogers with him, but i am not the type of dynasty owner who prefers a one year fix.
Some of you guys thought Owens would be around for a while, but if not, how big of an impact do you think him leaving has on Romo? Again, i think Romo is a good QB, just not sure if he is a top 5 QB without Owens.
Outside of Manning, Romo, Palmer, and Brady, i cant think of any QB's worth paying for other than those two. I like Favre, if i can get Rogers with him, but i am not the type of dynasty owner who prefers a one year fix.
Some of you guys thought Owens would be around for a while, but if not, how big of an impact do you think him leaving has on Romo? Again, i think Romo is a good QB, just not sure if he is a top 5 QB without Owens.
I see Romo as still being a productive QB even with TO gone, but not the Tier 1 guy he has been. He still has some great weapons in Witten, Crayton and MB3.
Although he looked horrible earlier this year, Matt Leinart should be cheap and has the potential to be a top 5 QB with Fitzgerald and Boldin. Personally, I would not pay over backup QB value. I look at him as being about the same value as Matt Schaub after he was traded. Leinart will either turn the corner and put it all together in the NFL or he will punch out.
I think Big Ben has regained the value he lost after last season and is no longer a "buy low". I also do not see him being a top 5 QB consistently. Additionally, PIT is not a dome team.
Cutler, Bulger and Brees are good buy low candidates with the potential to reach top 5.
Jake Delhomme is not a buy low unless you can get him for next to nothing. He played well against some weak defenses (STL, HOU, ATL) for the first 3 games and I think that will inflate his value above what it should be.
I am intrigued by Derek Anderson and think he could be a buy low. He is not a big name and if you can find an owner that thinks he had a 1 year wonder, then you may be able to pick him up cheap. I believe Anderson will be returning to the Browns next season as the starter and will still be throwing to Edwards and Winslow. Their defense will possibly improve, but I don't see it turning into a powerhouse overnight.
What do you think of the argument that Brady and Romo producing so much higher than everyone else is reducing all other QBs values with the exception of maybe Manning and Palmer.
I think Big Ben has regained the value he lost after last season and is no longer a "buy low". I also do not see him being a top 5 QB consistently. Additionally, PIT is not a dome team.
Cutler, Bulger and Brees are good buy low candidates with the potential to reach top 5.
Jake Delhomme is not a buy low unless you can get him for next to nothing. He played well against some weak defenses (STL, HOU, ATL) for the first 3 games and I think that will inflate his value above what it should be.
I am intrigued by Derek Anderson and think he could be a buy low. He is not a big name and if you can find an owner that thinks he had a 1 year wonder, then you may be able to pick him up cheap. I believe Anderson will be returning to the Browns next season as the starter and will still be throwing to Edwards and Winslow. Their defense will possibly improve, but I don't see it turning into a powerhouse overnight.
What do you think of the argument that Brady and Romo producing so much higher than everyone else is reducing all other QBs values with the exception of maybe Manning and Palmer.
I thought we were talking about dynasty value not trade value specifically. For me, ability is the most important issue because it eventually determines how a players career will go. So, if TO is a big part of Romo's success, and I believe it is, then Romo's long term prospects are less strong than might appear right this instant. If you think TO is incidental and if you think that Romo is a great QB then that has to determine your evaluation; but I am still skeptical.
In the end, it is the perceived value of the owner you are trading with that matters. I mentioned Roeth & Cutler because they seemed to fit the "upgrade" description based on the post. If Romo has the lowest percieved value, then by all means, I would go get Romo at a discount versus the other guys. Romo sure looks like a bonafide QB for the next several years.
Lastly, I wouldn't worry about TO at all, of all WRs in the game, not many are in better shape than TO. He probably has at least 3 to 4 years of high production left in him. If he doesn't or gets injured, I don't think Jerry Jones will sit idle without acquiring a weapon.
At first blush, it makes sense to consider the T.O. situation with Romo, but it's not his age that scares me off. I agree that it's too early to pencil in a significant age-related decline for T.O.
I wouldn't be looking 3-4 years down the line with a trade of this magnitude.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 01:57 PM)
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 11 2007, 01:44 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 11 2007, 12:26 PM)
I have been among those who defended Beck but now after last week I think it is time to drop him. I am looking at Trent Edwards as a possible pick-up because he has done better with his opportunity.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
Regarding the discussion above, I would rank them this way: Roth first; Cutler second; Romo third. I am not a big believer in Romo and if he loses TO look out.
In the end, it is the perceived value of the owner you are trading with that matters. I mentioned Roeth & Cutler because they seemed to fit the "upgrade" description based on the post. If Romo has the lowest percieved value, then by all means, I would go get Romo at a discount versus the other guys. Romo sure looks like a bonafide QB for the next several years.
Lastly, I wouldn't worry about TO at all, of all WRs in the game, not many are in better shape than TO. He probably has at least 3 to 4 years of high production left in him. If he doesn't or gets injured, I don't think Jerry Jones will sit idle without acquiring a weapon.
At first blush, it makes sense to consider the T.O. situation with Romo, but it's not his age that scares me off. I agree that it's too early to pencil in a significant age-related decline for T.O.
I wouldn't be looking 3-4 years down the line with a trade of this magnitude.
QUOTE (Colin Dowling @ Dec 11 2007, 03:42 PM)
If I were looking for a potential top-5 QB and didnt' want to pay top dollar, I'd go for Big Ben, Brees, and Bulger. The last two should cost a lot less then they are worth, especially Bulger.
Roethlisberger is the best bet to stay elite. Talent-wise, he stacks up with any QB in the NFL, and now he's put it all together with fantasy production as well. I should probably move him up to the top tier as it is. The problem is everybody knows he's elite now, so you're going to have to pay top dollar to get him. If you believed in his talent, you should have bought low before the season.
Brees has managed to salvage his season after starting off so poorly, but the time to buy on him was October. I think he's a good bet to stay in the 6-8 range with 25-30 TDs per year and 4,000 yards. Could you get 95% of the Brees production at a fraction of the cost with Hasselbeck? I think the time to do that was about a month ago.
You say Bulger should cost a lot less than he's worth, but how much is he really worth? He's missed significant time with injury in two of the last three years, his offensive line is a sieve, and he's always had problems in the redzone. I agree that there's a possibility of him putting up a Top 5 performance at some point, but I don't think he's really worth a ton in dynasty leagues.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 11 2007, 04:21 PM)
I thought we were talking about dynasty value not trade value specifically. For me, ability is the most important issue because it eventually determines how a players career will go. So, if TO is a big part of Romo's success, and I believe it is, then Romo's long term prospects are less strong than might appear right this instant. If you think TO is incidental and if you think that Romo is a great QB then that has to determine your evaluation; but I am still skeptical.
All I said was I wouldn't worry too much about T.O.'s age in evaluating Romo's dynasty value. I've always worried more about the T.O. shenanigans than his age.
If you've come to the decision that Romo wouldn't be a great QB without T.O., that's perfectly fine. But if T.O. has 2-3 more dominant seasons left for the Cowboys, I wouldn't let if affect Romo's dynasty value. That's 2-3 years where you have a competitive advantage over most of the other owners in your league.
Rotoworld on John Beck:
QUOTE
FoxSports.com's Alex Marvez reports that Cleo Lemon will start at quarterback for the Dolphins against Baltimore in Week 14.
Trying to stay out of the history books. While the local writers don't see a huge difference between Lemon and Beck, the rookie has been far, far worse. While the move calls Beck's future into question, Lemon has been competent and gives Miami a chance to beat Baltimore or Cincinnati.
Trying to stay out of the history books. While the local writers don't see a huge difference between Lemon and Beck, the rookie has been far, far worse. While the move calls Beck's future into question, Lemon has been competent and gives Miami a chance to beat Baltimore or Cincinnati.
QUOTE
John Beck won't start for the Dolphins this week.
If he's the quarterback of the future, they should be developing Beck, not Cleo Lemon. If they are having doubts, the Dolphins are admitting a major draft-day blunder. We don't blame them for trying to win a game, but the move has to be a disappointment for everyone.
If he's the quarterback of the future, they should be developing Beck, not Cleo Lemon. If they are having doubts, the Dolphins are admitting a major draft-day blunder. We don't blame them for trying to win a game, but the move has to be a disappointment for everyone.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 10:02 AM)
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
I don't know that it's so obvious that Romo is a top-3 dynasty QB right now. After all, this Carson Palmer guy is still pretty good, and that Cincinnati offense has a weapon or two.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 01:53 PM)
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 11 2007, 12:46 PM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Dec 11 2007, 09:02 AM)
Lets talk Tony Romo and his dynasty value. I dont own him in any dynasty leagues, but was considering making a move for him, in one league in particular where i have a strong deep team at every postion other than QB(Eli and Lienart).
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
He is obvously a top 3 dynasty QB right now, and would cost quite a bit. My biggest issue with him is his value after TO is gone. I cant see him throwing 35+ TD's with a WR corps led by Patrick Crayton.
I guess the bigger question is what QB's are potential top 5 going into next year, without the price tag of a Brady, Manning, Romo?
I think Roethlisberger and/or Cutler might fit this. Both have emerging #1 young WRs in Holmes & Marshall, both have good pedigree. I would say percieved value right now would be Romo > Big Ben > Cutler, this will widen if Romo leads Dallas to the superbowl. However, as we know that rank order could completely change next year. Some people didn't foresee Romo as top 10 this year, let alone top 5.
I agree on Roethlisberger & Cutler, but the time to get Big Ben was last offseason. You missed your window of value there.
Agreed. Roethlisberger's value was INSANE this last offseason. I played in 5 leagues this year, and wound up drafting him in every one- not because I intended to, but because he just kept falling and falling. I got him as my QB3 in one league, as the 15th QB off the board (I would have taken him earlier, but I had intentionally passed on him twice because I owned him in every league so far. Eventually I just couldn't say "no" anymore).
I don't think anyone else presents quite the value of a Roeth right now (we don't have any supremely talented players whose numbers are repressed by their offensive systems), but Brees and Palmer are both pretty good buy-lows. I think Palmer is a top-3 dynasty guy and Brees is top-6, but they can both be had for a bit cheaper. Barring either of them, I'd rather focus on acquiring a lot of the guys in the 6-12 range, instead. You could probably get a Hasselbeck *AND* a Schaub for the cost of a Palmer or a Brees, and you'll wind up with similar production and upside between the two of them.
QUOTE (spec1alk @ Dec 11 2007, 04:10 PM)
Although he looked horrible earlier this year, Matt Leinart should be cheap and has the potential to be a top 5 QB with Fitzgerald and Boldin. Personally, I would not pay over backup QB value. I look at him as being about the same value as Matt Schaub after he was traded. Leinart will either turn the corner and put it all together in the NFL or he will punch out.
I'm very aggressive when it comes to young QBs. If they don't show me enough in their first two seasons as a starter, I aggressively try to move them ("show me enough" generally means "finish in the top 10"). The numbers are very bleak for QBs who don't crack the top 10 within their first two seasons as a starter. Obviously every player is different and you have to take them all on a case by case basis (which is why I'm bullish on Cutler despite him currently ranking outside of the top 10, albeit at 11th), but if I owned Leinart, I would be aggressively pushing him on owners looking to "buy low" because I think his value is going to continue to drop as his name recognition carries less and less weight.
From Gregg Rosenthal's Pancake Blocks:
And the Denver Post article:
QUOTE
Henry and Walker on way out of Denver?
What's that saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 349 times, shame on Mike Shanahan.
The Mastermind did it again Sunday, surprising everyone by starting Selvin Young and benching Travis Henry. I tried to warn about the situation last week, but it wasn't strong enough in retrospect. At least Henry owners lucked out again with a touchdown (this time when Young was winded), but most of his carries came in garbage time. Young was a monster with 156 yards rushing on 17 carries, and should be a force for patient owners who waited this long.
Shanahan obliquely said Monday that Henry is going through a tough time right now. It will probably get tougher this offseason if the Broncos ask Henry to renegotiate his deal as the the Denver Post suggested Monday.
Henry could be one-and-done in Denver, but Javon Walker sounds even more likely to go this offseason. Henry's signing bonus would be tough to eat, but it would make financial sense to let go of Walker because of a $4.4 million option bonus that is due.
The Post says that the Shanahan is "weary of stroking the ego of this high-maintenance veteran." It doesn't sound much different than when Walker was on the way out of Green Bay. Throw in a potentially career-threatening knee surgery, and Walker's future is cloudier than Henry's much-debated drug test.
What's that saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 349 times, shame on Mike Shanahan.
The Mastermind did it again Sunday, surprising everyone by starting Selvin Young and benching Travis Henry. I tried to warn about the situation last week, but it wasn't strong enough in retrospect. At least Henry owners lucked out again with a touchdown (this time when Young was winded), but most of his carries came in garbage time. Young was a monster with 156 yards rushing on 17 carries, and should be a force for patient owners who waited this long.
Shanahan obliquely said Monday that Henry is going through a tough time right now. It will probably get tougher this offseason if the Broncos ask Henry to renegotiate his deal as the the Denver Post suggested Monday.
Henry could be one-and-done in Denver, but Javon Walker sounds even more likely to go this offseason. Henry's signing bonus would be tough to eat, but it would make financial sense to let go of Walker because of a $4.4 million option bonus that is due.
The Post says that the Shanahan is "weary of stroking the ego of this high-maintenance veteran." It doesn't sound much different than when Walker was on the way out of Green Bay. Throw in a potentially career-threatening knee surgery, and Walker's future is cloudier than Henry's much-debated drug test.
And the Denver Post article:
QUOTE
Value of Henry, Walker takes hit
By Mark Kiszla
The Denver Post
Article Last Updated: 12/10/2007 01:26:49 AM MST
Warm smiles of victory hide the cold business of the NFL.
On a Sunday when Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall flashed Pro Bowl potential and rookie Selvin Young dashed for 156 yards, there was also the harsh reality of expensive Denver veterans Javon Walker and Travis Henry looking vulnerable and very replaceable.
"My thing is to just keep on pushing, man," Young said. "To take advantage of every opportunity that I get and understand that it could be here today and gone tomorrow."
Behind every touchdown dance in a resounding 41-7 win over Kansas City is the unsentimental calculations of a football team that needs to get its business affairs in order.
If both Marshall and Young are bound for NFL glory, then Henry and Walker are destined for pay cuts, or worse, the exit door.
You want to remind us again why the Broncos went to all that trouble of fighting a marijuana rap against Henry, who served a reserve role against the Chiefs?
After watching Marshall play in the snow to celebrate a touchdown or walk through the Denver locker room wearing a fur coat, are you sure this town is big enough for two prima donna pass-catchers?
"It was for all my family and friends in Florida," said Marshall, explaining the happy mess he made playfully throwing snow in the end zone. "They don't get to see snow much, so I showed them some snow."
There's no denying the big-play chutzpah of Walker. Nevertheless, with a modest 20 receptions to his name in an injury-plagued season, it's also obvious coach Mike Shanahan is weary of stroking the ego of this high-maintenance veteran.
Walker was inactive against the Chiefs, and the Broncos did not miss him on an afternoon when the talk was about the three-year contract extension given Denver receiver Brandon Stokley.
With a huge bonus due Walker prior to the 2008 season, Denver management must decide if the 29-year- old veteran is worth the investment.
Henry might be an even tougher case for the Broncos in balancing dollars with sense.
Looking for a punishing, between-the-tackles runner Tatum Bell never was, Denver decided to sink five years and large coin in Henry, despite prior knowledge of illegitimate children and league drug violations, said general manager Ted Sund- quist.
Shanahan stood by his new tailback through the season- long distraction of Henry's fight with the league about a drug bust that was ultimately overturned on appeal, with the coach going so far as to cost himself a $25,000 fine for speaking up.
But after seeing Henry used sparingly against the Chiefs, as a goal-line masher and a garbage-time grunt, it's easy to envision how Shana- han will get back more than that $25,000 if he presses the running back to renegotiate a contract to the team's favor during the coming months.
"Folks better put Selvin Young on their fantasy teams," Broncos defensive end Tim Crowder warned me a month ago. I didn't listen. Stupid me.
So here's a shout out to the broadband-width speed that Denver has not enjoyed in the backfield since Clinton Portis ran the rock in this town.
As the latest out-of-the- blue success story for the Broncos, what the undersized Young must now prove is the durability to be more than a flash in the pan.
"I understand this business," Young said.
Except for three hours on Sunday, it's all business, and it figures to be cruel to Walker and Henry.
In the Not For Long, Henry and Walker are suddenly stuck in the same tough spot. They need to accept a reduction of salary, or face a prospect unthinkable six months ago: These guys could be on the street, looking for work.
If the Broncos can score 41 points with Walker in civvies and Henry parked on the bench, would Denver be smarter to spend the limited resources of salary cap football on more essential parts to this flawed team's future success, such as a big defensive tackle or a young safety?
In the NFL, you cannot have it all.
In a stadium that was waiting for good reason to stand up and cheer, Sunday was a rowdy coming-out party for Marshall and Young.
But, looking at the empty locker stalls of Henry and Walker 60 minutes after the game, it was impossible to ignore.
Somebody will have to pay for all this fun.
Mark Kiszla: 303-954-1053 or mkiszla@denverpost.com
By Mark Kiszla
The Denver Post
Article Last Updated: 12/10/2007 01:26:49 AM MST
Warm smiles of victory hide the cold business of the NFL.
On a Sunday when Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall flashed Pro Bowl potential and rookie Selvin Young dashed for 156 yards, there was also the harsh reality of expensive Denver veterans Javon Walker and Travis Henry looking vulnerable and very replaceable.
"My thing is to just keep on pushing, man," Young said. "To take advantage of every opportunity that I get and understand that it could be here today and gone tomorrow."
Behind every touchdown dance in a resounding 41-7 win over Kansas City is the unsentimental calculations of a football team that needs to get its business affairs in order.
If both Marshall and Young are bound for NFL glory, then Henry and Walker are destined for pay cuts, or worse, the exit door.
You want to remind us again why the Broncos went to all that trouble of fighting a marijuana rap against Henry, who served a reserve role against the Chiefs?
After watching Marshall play in the snow to celebrate a touchdown or walk through the Denver locker room wearing a fur coat, are you sure this town is big enough for two prima donna pass-catchers?
"It was for all my family and friends in Florida," said Marshall, explaining the happy mess he made playfully throwing snow in the end zone. "They don't get to see snow much, so I showed them some snow."
There's no denying the big-play chutzpah of Walker. Nevertheless, with a modest 20 receptions to his name in an injury-plagued season, it's also obvious coach Mike Shanahan is weary of stroking the ego of this high-maintenance veteran.
Walker was inactive against the Chiefs, and the Broncos did not miss him on an afternoon when the talk was about the three-year contract extension given Denver receiver Brandon Stokley.
With a huge bonus due Walker prior to the 2008 season, Denver management must decide if the 29-year- old veteran is worth the investment.
Henry might be an even tougher case for the Broncos in balancing dollars with sense.
Looking for a punishing, between-the-tackles runner Tatum Bell never was, Denver decided to sink five years and large coin in Henry, despite prior knowledge of illegitimate children and league drug violations, said general manager Ted Sund- quist.
Shanahan stood by his new tailback through the season- long distraction of Henry's fight with the league about a drug bust that was ultimately overturned on appeal, with the coach going so far as to cost himself a $25,000 fine for speaking up.
But after seeing Henry used sparingly against the Chiefs, as a goal-line masher and a garbage-time grunt, it's easy to envision how Shana- han will get back more than that $25,000 if he presses the running back to renegotiate a contract to the team's favor during the coming months.
"Folks better put Selvin Young on their fantasy teams," Broncos defensive end Tim Crowder warned me a month ago. I didn't listen. Stupid me.
So here's a shout out to the broadband-width speed that Denver has not enjoyed in the backfield since Clinton Portis ran the rock in this town.
As the latest out-of-the- blue success story for the Broncos, what the undersized Young must now prove is the durability to be more than a flash in the pan.
"I understand this business," Young said.
Except for three hours on Sunday, it's all business, and it figures to be cruel to Walker and Henry.
In the Not For Long, Henry and Walker are suddenly stuck in the same tough spot. They need to accept a reduction of salary, or face a prospect unthinkable six months ago: These guys could be on the street, looking for work.
If the Broncos can score 41 points with Walker in civvies and Henry parked on the bench, would Denver be smarter to spend the limited resources of salary cap football on more essential parts to this flawed team's future success, such as a big defensive tackle or a young safety?
In the NFL, you cannot have it all.
In a stadium that was waiting for good reason to stand up and cheer, Sunday was a rowdy coming-out party for Marshall and Young.
But, looking at the empty locker stalls of Henry and Walker 60 minutes after the game, it was impossible to ignore.
Somebody will have to pay for all this fun.
Mark Kiszla: 303-954-1053 or mkiszla@denverpost.com
Hm...Walker to Philly? 
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 09:18 PM)
IMO D Lee TE should be much higher. tier 3
QUOTE (Sopranos @ Dec 11 2007, 09:33 PM)
IMO D Lee TE should be much higher. tier 3
I'll meet you half-way. He's now at the top of Tier 4 and closer in numerical value.
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Dec 11 2007, 08:12 PM)
Hm...Walker to Philly TENNESSEE?
I love the rankings F&L
One comment and somthing to consider. I see you have Marvin Harrison moving down. What do you think of his career moving forward? It seems that injury has robbed him of what may have been his last big season. At his age I just do not see him coming back to his formerly dominant form.
Connected to this is Gonzalez who has performed better than I think most expected of him as a rookie. He is a hard worker and built respect and rapport with Manning from the very begining. I think you may have him ranked too low right now as I see enough evidence at this point to consider him legit. I see him taking over Harrisons role in this offense now and moving forward. Even if Harrison plays for the Colts next season (which will be very expensive) I still see Gonzo having a significant role and being poised to slide outside as soon as Harrison struggles again (if Harrison can even return to former skill level).
Curious about your thoughts on this as when looking at the rankings Gonzo seemed to be in a grouping that I think he has surpassed allready.
One comment and somthing to consider. I see you have Marvin Harrison moving down. What do you think of his career moving forward? It seems that injury has robbed him of what may have been his last big season. At his age I just do not see him coming back to his formerly dominant form.
Connected to this is Gonzalez who has performed better than I think most expected of him as a rookie. He is a hard worker and built respect and rapport with Manning from the very begining. I think you may have him ranked too low right now as I see enough evidence at this point to consider him legit. I see him taking over Harrisons role in this offense now and moving forward. Even if Harrison plays for the Colts next season (which will be very expensive) I still see Gonzo having a significant role and being poised to slide outside as soon as Harrison struggles again (if Harrison can even return to former skill level).
Curious about your thoughts on this as when looking at the rankings Gonzo seemed to be in a grouping that I think he has surpassed allready.
Pretty funny; but I think we need one with SSOG and Stokeley! I mean...at least Dayne was a great college RB and has shown flashes now and then in the pros.
The truth is that I was in Madison when Dayne was there and saw him run for over three hundred yards a game more times than I can recall. I guess some of you guys think of him in NY (where he wasn't used properly) and I remember him in Badger red.
BTW, with this latest injury I am probably dropping him. There is no doubt that Houston will bring in a rookie RB next year. I don't see much value in Achemandu or Walker.
The truth is that I was in Madison when Dayne was there and saw him run for over three hundred yards a game more times than I can recall. I guess some of you guys think of him in NY (where he wasn't used properly) and I remember him in Badger red.
BTW, with this latest injury I am probably dropping him. There is no doubt that Houston will bring in a rookie RB next year. I don't see much value in Achemandu or Walker.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 09:18 PM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 11 2007, 09:59 PM)
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Dec 11 2007, 08:12 PM)
Hm...Walker to Philly TENNESSEE?
As a Walker owner, I'd much rather see him in Philly. Reid loves himself some passing game, and I'm not sold on Young.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Dec 11 2007, 10:10 PM)
Pretty funny; but I think we need one with SSOG and Stokeley! I mean...at least Dayne was a great college RB and has shown flashes now and then in the pros.
You're right, Stokley has yet to show flashes. That's what happens when you're consistently bright.
Just to give an idea of possible value of two QBs that are being discussed:
I traded Bulger for Anthony Gonzalez about 6 weeks ago...had quite a bit of depth at QB so he was expendable.
A month ago, I traded Driver and Derek Anderson for Chad Johnson and a 2nd rounder this year. With Anderson's pending FA status, I didn't want to risk him going into a different situation and falling flat on his face, and leaving me with nothing to show for what he's accomplished this season.
Not posting this because I'm looking for feedback - I know some people like seeing dynasty trades to help gauge the values of players they own or are considering going after.
I traded Bulger for Anthony Gonzalez about 6 weeks ago...had quite a bit of depth at QB so he was expendable.
A month ago, I traded Driver and Derek Anderson for Chad Johnson and a 2nd rounder this year. With Anderson's pending FA status, I didn't want to risk him going into a different situation and falling flat on his face, and leaving me with nothing to show for what he's accomplished this season.
Not posting this because I'm looking for feedback - I know some people like seeing dynasty trades to help gauge the values of players they own or are considering going after.
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 10:34 PM)
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
I've always been more bullish on Fitzgerald than many others have been. You're right that he's the total package. He produces no matter the QB, and I've always thought he was a significantly better dynasty WR than Boldin. He's just way more reliable.
Re: Fitz vs. Moss. I was just considering the same scenario the other day. The Randy Moss owner in my playoff dynasty league is on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Moss is going to be a huge trading chip for the playoffs. There's no doubt he's going to want Fitzgerald from me if I go after Moss. Would I do that deal? I think I'd have hard time pulling the trigger.
QUOTE (Biabreakable @ Dec 11 2007, 10:07 PM)
I love the rankings F&L
One comment and somthing to consider. I see you have Marvin Harrison moving down. What do you think of his career moving forward? It seems that injury has robbed him of what may have been his last big season. At his age I just do not see him coming back to his formerly dominant form.
Connected to this is Gonzalez who has performed better than I think most expected of him as a rookie. He is a hard worker and built respect and rapport with Manning from the very begining. I think you may have him ranked too low right now as I see enough evidence at this point to consider him legit. I see him taking over Harrisons role in this offense now and moving forward. Even if Harrison plays for the Colts next season (which will be very expensive) I still see Gonzo having a significant role and being poised to slide outside as soon as Harrison struggles again (if Harrison can even return to former skill level).
Curious about your thoughts on this as when looking at the rankings Gonzo seemed to be in a grouping that I think he has surpassed already.
One comment and somthing to consider. I see you have Marvin Harrison moving down. What do you think of his career moving forward? It seems that injury has robbed him of what may have been his last big season. At his age I just do not see him coming back to his formerly dominant form.
Connected to this is Gonzalez who has performed better than I think most expected of him as a rookie. He is a hard worker and built respect and rapport with Manning from the very begining. I think you may have him ranked too low right now as I see enough evidence at this point to consider him legit. I see him taking over Harrisons role in this offense now and moving forward. Even if Harrison plays for the Colts next season (which will be very expensive) I still see Gonzo having a significant role and being poised to slide outside as soon as Harrison struggles again (if Harrison can even return to former skill level).
Curious about your thoughts on this as when looking at the rankings Gonzo seemed to be in a grouping that I think he has surpassed already.
You seem a lot more sure about Harrison being buried than I am. I'm not sure why I'd believe that he's done simply because he's currently injured. I know that veteran receivers can drop precipitously after an injury, but Harrison is a clearly a special case. We're not talking about a Rod Smith here. Harrison just finished as the #1 fantasy WR last season on the heels of eight straight seasons in the Top 10. I don't have a great feel for his situation considering the knee injury, but I'm not ready to write him off yet...
I think you're jumping the gun on Gonzalez taking over Harrison's role in the offense. By this time next season, Gonzalez could be struggling to see enough time on the field to put up consistent production again. I just don't think a historical NFL and franchise legend gets swept aside so easily.
Re: Gonzalez surpassing the rest of the receivers in his group. I don't see it...yet. I see a rookie WR with three good games out of 12. Now if we're starting with a framework of Harrison being done, I would bump Gonzalez quite a bit. But I'm not convinced that's our framework.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 10:43 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 10:34 PM)
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
I've always been more bullish on Fitzgerald than many others have been. You're right that he's the total package. He produces no matter the QB, and I've always thought he was a significantly better dynasty WR than Boldin. He's just way more reliable.
Re: Fitz vs. Moss. I was just considering the same scenario the other day. The Randy Moss owner in my playoff dynasty league is on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Moss is going to be a huge trading chip for the playoffs. There's no doubt he's going to want Fitzgerald from me if I go after Moss. Would I do that deal? I think I'd have hard time pulling the trigger.
I wouldn't. Fitz's His talent isn't at the level Moss's is at, and his system isn't in the same STRATOSPHERE as Moss's. And Moss has another 3 years or so before I start worrying about his age. Fitz is an amazing talent, but he's not a transcendent talent. His QB isn't a transcendent talent, his offensive system isn't a transcendent system. Right now, everything about Moss is transcendent. I wouldn't trade that away for someone 6 years younger unless I was in serious rebuild mode (i.e. not anticipating being competitive for at least 2 years) and was getting additional value in the equation somewhere.
I really like Fitz, but no more than I like Smiff (who I think is more dominant and more able to take over games) or Andre Johnson (who is just as talented and a more focal point of his offense). I know everyone says to rank dynasty players on talent, not situation, but that's only true to an extent- if we really did that, do you think Addai would crack the top 10, much less the top 5? Right now, Fitzgerald is one of the 5 most talented WRs in the league, possibly even one of the three most talented, but his situation is far from ideal and I'm not convinced it's getting any better any time soon (in fact, quite the opposite- as I said, I'm already on the verge of giving up on Leinart). I'll easily put him in my top 5 dynasty WRs, but he'd be in the same tier as Moss only in the same way that Romo is in the same tier as Manning or Brady. Basically, it's only because it's silly to have a tier that's just one player.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 11 2007, 11:12 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 10:43 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 10:34 PM)
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
I've always been more bullish on Fitzgerald than many others have been. You're right that he's the total package. He produces no matter the QB, and I've always thought he was a significantly better dynasty WR than Boldin. He's just way more reliable.
Re: Fitz vs. Moss. I was just considering the same scenario the other day. The Randy Moss owner in my playoff dynasty league is on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Moss is going to be a huge trading chip for the playoffs. There's no doubt he's going to want Fitzgerald from me if I go after Moss. Would I do that deal? I think I'd have hard time pulling the trigger.
I wouldn't. Fitz's His talent isn't at the level Moss's is at, and his system isn't in the same STRATOSPHERE as Moss's. And Moss has another 3 years or so before I start worrying about his age. Fitz is an amazing talent, but he's not a transcendent talent. His QB isn't a transcendent talent, his offensive system isn't a transcendent system. Right now, everything about Moss is transcendent. I wouldn't trade that away for someone 6 years younger unless I was in serious rebuild mode (i.e. not anticipating being competitive for at least 2 years) and was getting additional value in the equation somewhere.
I really like Fitz, but no more than I like Smiff (who I think is more dominant and more able to take over games) or Andre Johnson (who is just as talented and a more focal point of his offense). I know everyone says to rank dynasty players on talent, not situation, but that's only true to an extent- if we really did that, do you think Addai would crack the top 10, much less the top 5? Right now, Fitzgerald is one of the 5 most talented WRs in the league, possibly even one of the three most talented, but his situation is far from ideal and I'm not convinced it's getting any better any time soon (in fact, quite the opposite- as I said, I'm already on the verge of giving up on Leinart). I'll easily put him in my top 5 dynasty WRs, but he'd be in the same tier as Moss only in the same way that Romo is in the same tier as Manning or Brady. Basically, it's only because it's silly to have a tier that's just one player.
So I take it you're wholly unconcerned about the possibility of Moss not being in New England next season?
I do believe Fitzgerald is a transcendent talent. His talent is not "Randy Moss transcendent," but Moss is the most talented WR to ever play in the NFL. Over the past ten NFL drafts, the only WRs whom I thought were more talented than Fitzgerald were Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
I like Steve Smith and Andre Johnson a lot too. But Smith's QB situation is much more worrisome to me, and though I've been ranking Johnson higher than most have for the past couple of seasons, he's been much less consistent than Fitzgerald. But I agree that they're all in the same neighborhood for value in dynasty leagues.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 11 2007, 11:12 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 10:43 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 10:34 PM)
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
I've always been more bullish on Fitzgerald than many others have been. You're right that he's the total package. He produces no matter the QB, and I've always thought he was a significantly better dynasty WR than Boldin. He's just way more reliable.
Re: Fitz vs. Moss. I was just considering the same scenario the other day. The Randy Moss owner in my playoff dynasty league is on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Moss is going to be a huge trading chip for the playoffs. There's no doubt he's going to want Fitzgerald from me if I go after Moss. Would I do that deal? I think I'd have hard time pulling the trigger.
I wouldn't. Fitz's His talent isn't at the level Moss's is at, and his system isn't in the same STRATOSPHERE as Moss's. And Moss has another 3 years or so before I start worrying about his age. Fitz is an amazing talent, but he's not a transcendent talent. His QB isn't a transcendent talent, his offensive system isn't a transcendent system. Right now, everything about Moss is transcendent. I wouldn't trade that away for someone 6 years younger unless I was in serious rebuild mode (i.e. not anticipating being competitive for at least 2 years) and was getting additional value in the equation somewhere.
I really like Fitz, but no more than I like Smiff (who I think is more dominant and more able to take over games) or Andre Johnson (who is just as talented and a more focal point of his offense). I know everyone says to rank dynasty players on talent, not situation, but that's only true to an extent- if we really did that, do you think Addai would crack the top 10, much less the top 5? Right now, Fitzgerald is one of the 5 most talented WRs in the league, possibly even one of the three most talented, but his situation is far from ideal and I'm not convinced it's getting any better any time soon (in fact, quite the opposite- as I said, I'm already on the verge of giving up on Leinart). I'll easily put him in my top 5 dynasty WRs, but he'd be in the same tier as Moss only in the same way that Romo is in the same tier as Manning or Brady. Basically, it's only because it's silly to have a tier that's just one player.
There's no doubt that Moss is one of the most talented WRs in the history of the NFL, but Fitz isn't exactly a slouch. He only has one game of less than 74 receiving yards all season. He's only one spot below Moss in terms of yards/game. He'd probably be outscoring Randy over the past 6 weeks if it weren't for the fact that he missed a game. He's an elite talent entering the prime of his career.
Moss is having a great year. His best in half a decade. IMO there's absolutely no guarantee that he'll put up these kind of numbers again. Even great players play over their head sometimes. Remember when LT was head-and-shoulders above the other RBs coming off of his 2006 season? Remember when Peyton Manning was head-and-shoulders above the other QBs coming off his 2004 season? Just because an elite player has a freakish season doesn't mean he isn't going to regress a bit. I'm always careful not to flip out when a guy plays over his head. He usually comes back down to Earth. Frankly, I don't expect Randy Moss to score 20 TDs every season moving forward.
I don't see a huge gap between Fitzgerald and Moss in the short-term. They're both elite WRs who give you an advantage over your competitor each week. And since Fitzgerald has more potential for longevity, I'm inclined to favor him.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 10:27 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 11 2007, 11:12 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 10:43 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 10:34 PM)
I like that you have Larry Fitz high in your WR rankings. I can't believe how low he is in the staff rankings right now. I'm a Fitz owner in a PPR. If someone offered me Randy Moss, I would turn it down.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
Fitz is the total package at WR and he's only 24 years old. You can't beat that.
I've always been more bullish on Fitzgerald than many others have been. You're right that he's the total package. He produces no matter the QB, and I've always thought he was a significantly better dynasty WR than Boldin. He's just way more reliable.
Re: Fitz vs. Moss. I was just considering the same scenario the other day. The Randy Moss owner in my playoff dynasty league is on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Moss is going to be a huge trading chip for the playoffs. There's no doubt he's going to want Fitzgerald from me if I go after Moss. Would I do that deal? I think I'd have hard time pulling the trigger.
I wouldn't. Fitz's His talent isn't at the level Moss's is at, and his system isn't in the same STRATOSPHERE as Moss's. And Moss has another 3 years or so before I start worrying about his age. Fitz is an amazing talent, but he's not a transcendent talent. His QB isn't a transcendent talent, his offensive system isn't a transcendent system. Right now, everything about Moss is transcendent. I wouldn't trade that away for someone 6 years younger unless I was in serious rebuild mode (i.e. not anticipating being competitive for at least 2 years) and was getting additional value in the equation somewhere.
I really like Fitz, but no more than I like Smiff (who I think is more dominant and more able to take over games) or Andre Johnson (who is just as talented and a more focal point of his offense). I know everyone says to rank dynasty players on talent, not situation, but that's only true to an extent- if we really did that, do you think Addai would crack the top 10, much less the top 5? Right now, Fitzgerald is one of the 5 most talented WRs in the league, possibly even one of the three most talented, but his situation is far from ideal and I'm not convinced it's getting any better any time soon (in fact, quite the opposite- as I said, I'm already on the verge of giving up on Leinart). I'll easily put him in my top 5 dynasty WRs, but he'd be in the same tier as Moss only in the same way that Romo is in the same tier as Manning or Brady. Basically, it's only because it's silly to have a tier that's just one player.
So I take it you're wholly unconcerned about the possibility of Moss not being in New England next season?
I do believe Fitzgerald is a transcendent talent. His talent is not "Randy Moss transcendent," but Moss is the most talented WR to ever play in the NFL. Over the past ten NFL drafts, the only WRs whom I thought were more talented than Fitzgerald were Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
I like Steve Smith and Andre Johnson a lot too. But Smith's QB situation is much more worrisome to me, and though I've been ranking Johnson higher than most have for the past couple of seasons, he's been much less consistent than Fitzgerald. But I agree that they're all in the same neighborhood for value in dynasty leagues.
I think Moss is much more likely to be in NE than Fitz is likely to have a good QB... I can't even imagine turning down a trade for Randy Moss in exchange for Fitz. In fact in my league if I accepted that trade, I think it would be vetoed. Moss is worth much more than Fitz in my opinion.
Guys its ok to have favorite players, but Moss is totally on a different level in my humble opinion.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Dec 11 2007, 11:47 PM)
I think Moss is much more likely to be in NE than Fitz is likely to have a good QB... I can't even imagine turning down a trade for Randy Moss in exchange for Fitz. In fact in my league if I accepted that trade, I think it would be vetoed. Moss is worth much more than Fitz in my opinion.
Guys its ok to have favorite players, but Moss is totally on a different level in my humble opinion.
Guys its ok to have favorite players, but Moss is totally on a different level in my humble opinion.
OK, full disclosure time. Where did you have Moss at this time last season? I had him between 15-20, and I know I was higher on him than 95% of this board. Why do I get the feeling the "guys it's ok to have favorite players" line would have been used against me last year: i.e. he's a dog, he takes plays off, he's constantly bothered by nagging injuries, he's lost a step or three, he's not as explosive as he once was, he's a horrible teammate and a coach-killer, he's always a chance for suspension or arrest, etc. It's OK to have favorite players, but I'm sure I would have been out of my mind to rank Moss so highly.
Value can change in a hurry. If he stays in New England, then of course he's the #1 dynasty WR. Still, I agree with EBF that it's a little silly to expect another 20 TD season even if does stay with the Pats.
And you're severely undervaluing Larry Fitzgerald. If that trade would get vetoed in your league, it's time to find a new league.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 11:05 PM)
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Dec 11 2007, 11:47 PM)
I think Moss is much more likely to be in NE than Fitz is likely to have a good QB... I can't even imagine turning down a trade for Randy Moss in exchange for Fitz. In fact in my league if I accepted that trade, I think it would be vetoed. Moss is worth much more than Fitz in my opinion.
Guys its ok to have favorite players, but Moss is totally on a different level in my humble opinion.
Guys its ok to have favorite players, but Moss is totally on a different level in my humble opinion.
OK, full disclosure time. Where did you have Moss at this time last season? I had him between 15-20, and I know I was higher on him than 95% of this board. Why do I get the feeling the "guys it's ok to have favorite players" line would have been used against me last year: i.e. he's a dog, he takes plays off, he's constantly bothered by nagging injuries, he's lost a step or three, he's not as explosive as he once was, he's a horrible teammate and a coach-killer, he's always a chance for suspension or arrest, etc. It's OK to have favorite players, but I'm sure I would have been out of my mind to rank Moss so highly.
Value can change in a hurry. If he stays in New England, then of course he's the #1 dynasty WR. Still, I agree with EBF that it's a little silly to expect another 20 TD season even if does stay with the Pats.
And you're severely undervaluing Larry Fitzgerald. If that trade would get vetoed in your league, it's time to find a new league.
In my redraft league Randy went 16th WR, Fitz went 7th WR.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 11 2007, 11:27 PM)
So I take it you're wholly unconcerned about the possibility of Moss not being in New England next season?
I do believe Fitzgerald is a transcendent talent. His talent is not "Randy Moss transcendent," but Moss is the most talented WR to ever play in the NFL. Over the past ten NFL drafts, the only WRs whom I thought were more talented than Fitzgerald were Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
I like Steve Smith and Andre Johnson a lot too. But Smith's QB situation is much more worrisome to me, and though I've been ranking Johnson higher than most have for the past couple of seasons, he's been much less consistent than Fitzgerald. But I agree that they're all in the same neighborhood for value in dynasty leagues.
I do believe Fitzgerald is a transcendent talent. His talent is not "Randy Moss transcendent," but Moss is the most talented WR to ever play in the NFL. Over the past ten NFL drafts, the only WRs whom I thought were more talented than Fitzgerald were Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
I like Steve Smith and Andre Johnson a lot too. But Smith's QB situation is much more worrisome to me, and though I've been ranking Johnson higher than most have for the past couple of seasons, he's been much less consistent than Fitzgerald. But I agree that they're all in the same neighborhood for value in dynasty leagues.
Not WHOLLY unconcerned, but mostly wholly unconcerned. At first, I was really worried about it, but it just seems like Randy Moss is having fun right now. He has plenty of money, so I don't think that's going to be a motivating factor. He definitely still wants respect, but earning respect can be as much about securing your HoF legacy as about being the highest-paid at your position in the league. I think Randy Moss really wants to be a HoFer, and knows he's a lock if he sticks around with New England. I think Randy Moss is having more fun in New England than he's had in a long, long time. I think Randy Moss still remembers what happens when you get greedy and go to a situation that looks good on the surface rather than staying in a situation that you KNOW is good. I don't know the guy, and I'm doing a lot of dime-store psychology, but I think Moss would be crazy to leave New England, even if they only offer a below-market deal, as long as the numbers are at least not outright insulting... and I think New England would be crazy to let Moss walk.
There's a possibility Moss walks, but I consider it very unlikely, and as someone mentioned, Moss's odds of playing with a great QB for the next 3 years are far better than Fitzgerald's.
Even if you want to call Fitz a transcendent talent, you have to agree that Randy Moss is a whole higher level of transcendent. Whether you want to call Fitz good and Moss great, or Fitz great and Moss sublime, or Fitz sublime and Moss transcendent, you have to acknowledge that Moss is simply a better talent than Fitz right now. Add to that equation my belief that he'll be in a better system, and it's a clear case.
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 11 2007, 11:46 PM)
There's no doubt that Moss is one of the most talented WRs in the history of the NFL, but Fitz isn't exactly a slouch. He only has one game of less than 74 receiving yards all season. He's only one spot below Moss in terms of yards/game. He'd probably be outscoring Randy over the past 6 weeks if it weren't for the fact that he missed a game. He's an elite talent entering the prime of his career.
Moss is having a great year. His best in half a decade. IMO there's absolutely no guarantee that he'll put up these kind of numbers again. Even great players play over their head sometimes. Remember when LT was head-and-shoulders above the other RBs coming off of his 2006 season? Remember when Peyton Manning was head-and-shoulders above the other QBs coming off his 2004 season? Just because an elite player has a freakish season doesn't mean he isn't going to regress a bit. I'm always careful not to flip out when a guy plays over his head. He usually comes back down to Earth. Frankly, I don't expect Randy Moss to score 20 TDs every season moving forward.
I don't see a huge gap between Fitzgerald and Moss in the short-term. They're both elite WRs who give you an advantage over your competitor each week. And since Fitzgerald has more potential for longevity, I'm inclined to favor him.
Moss is having a great year. His best in half a decade. IMO there's absolutely no guarantee that he'll put up these kind of numbers again. Even great players play over their head sometimes. Remember when LT was head-and-shoulders above the other RBs coming off of his 2006 season? Remember when Peyton Manning was head-and-shoulders above the other QBs coming off his 2004 season? Just because an elite player has a freakish season doesn't mean he isn't going to regress a bit. I'm always careful not to flip out when a guy plays over his head. He usually comes back down to Earth. Frankly, I don't expect Randy Moss to score 20 TDs every season moving forward.
I don't see a huge gap between Fitzgerald and Moss in the short-term. They're both elite WRs who give you an advantage over your competitor each week. And since Fitzgerald has more potential for longevity, I'm inclined to favor him.
You mention Moss playing over his head and talk about guys like Tomlinson and Manning, but this just reinforces my point. Tomlinson and Manning were the biggest studs at their position in the league with the biggest track record of success in the league. Moss is the biggest stud at his position in the league with the biggest track record of success in the league. Tomlinson and Manning had a record setting season where their VBD value was off the charts. Moss is having a record setting season where his VBD value is off the charts. The next season, both Manning and Tomlinson returned to their former great levels, rather than their all-world levels. Peyton Manning was the #3 QB the year after he set all the records (would have been #2, but he sat out late in the season, attempting 12 and 2 passes in his last two games), playing right at his pre-record levels. Tomlinson is currently the #1 RB this year after he set all those records (would have been #2, but he managed to get a miniscule lead over Westbrook thanks to an overtime period last week), playing right at his pre-record levels. Even if he returns to Randy Moss as usual, that's still an average of 1396 yards and 13 TDs a year. Larry Fitzgerald in his BEST SEASON SO FAR was still 3 TDs short of 1400 yards and 13 scores. For all his success so far this season, he's on pace for 9 TDs (even if you do him the favor of pro-rating over 16 games instead of 15). In short, a "Back Down To Earth" Randy Moss is still worth substantially more than Larry Fitzgerald (and who is to say that FITZGERALD isn't playing over his head right now? 95 ypg is a pretty lofty sum).
Fitz is a stud, but he's not as much of a stud as Randy talent-wise, and his offense system doesn't even come close to Randy's. He's 6 years younger, yes, but Randy is still plenty young for a WR, so that age factor isn't going to become an issue for at least another 2, 3, 4 or even 5 years.
F&L more thanks, not only for your GREAT rankings but for your continued excellence in leading the discussion about them here. It takes STONES to lay everything bare like this.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
QUOTE (Homer @ Dec 12 2007, 12:56 AM)
F&L more thanks, not only for your GREAT rankings but for your continued excellence in leading the discussion about them here. It takes STONES to lay everything bare like this.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
Cooley's an interesting case, in my opinion. We all know how much Gibbs loves his H-backs and Saunders loves his TEs... but I question how long either of those two will be around in Washington. I haven't seen very many Washington games, so I can't say what kind of talent he is- can someone with more knowledge tell me whether he's ranked there more on actual talent or past production? If he's legitimately one of the top-4 talents in the league at TE, that's one thing, but I suspect that rating is at least partially influenced by a system that might not be around much longer.
I have no problem with Vernon Davis's ranking. After you get past the top tier of TEs (in most years, anywhere from the top 3 to the top 6), there's a HUGE dropoff. There's no real difference between the #7 TE and the #12 TE, so I'd rather have a TE that was coming in at #12 right now, but had a good chance to crack the top 3 some day than a TE that was coming in at #7, but was much closer to his ceiling. San Francisco's offense is an unmitigated disaster, but Davis still has the tools to be a stud... and if he isn't, low-end startable TEs are a dime a dozen. Hell, I own Desmond Clark and I'd pretty much GIVE him away right now.
The TE whose ranking I most disagree with is Owen Daniels. I really love the way that kid plays the game, and I love his upside, especially with Kubiak at the helm. He's currently performing as TE9, he's 25 years old, he's playing in an offense where it'd be very easy for him to get more targets, for a coach who has been very inclined to give more targets to the TE, and at a level as a young player which compares well to a lot of other stud TEs... and he ranks 14th on that list? I'd put him above everyone else in tier 4 in a heartbeat. I'd also be very, very tempted to put him over Dallas Clark, to boot... mostly because I'm not convinced that Dallas Clark will still be around in Indy next year, and even if he is, this year has been something of an aberration for Indy's TEs, so I question whether Clark is at his ceiling right now.
I notice that system comes up in the conversation a lot more frequently for TEs, and I don't think that's an accident. I think more than any other position in fantasy football, the TE is affected by the circumstances- most notably, the coach's preferences and the competition for targets. TEs, it seems, should be ranked almost entirely based on their system unless they're one of those undeniable talents like Gates, Gonzo, or Winslow.
QUOTE (Homer @ Dec 12 2007, 12:56 AM)
F&L more thanks, not only for your GREAT rankings but for your continued excellence in leading the discussion about them here. It takes STONES to lay everything bare like this.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
Now to throwing some stones:
The TE rankings... Does Cooley really belong with the other three guys in tier 1? The numerical rankings really help, in that regard, but he's too close to Witten there too, IMO. He's had 4 very productive games in a row, and no doubt he's talented, but he sure put up a lot of STINKER games this year. IMO he's way too inconsistent and his highs aren't as high as the others either, possibly because his team's offense isn't very good.
Also, Vernon Davis... I know about the freakish combine performance and the measurables. BUT, if he was REALLY any good as a football player, wouldn't there be statistical evidence? This season he's a severe liability as a starting TE on a weekly basis. Obviously you're optimistic that his offensive situation will improve next year, but I'd be VERY scared about relying on him next year. At least in a re-draft I know where he'd likely slot in the draft and could take a flyer after the top 7-8 TE's are off the board if the price was right. In dynasty, I'd be shopping HARD for an upgrade.
Thanks, Homer. Those are both understandable quibbles.
Looking back at Cooley's work this season, I only see two stinker games, which is the same amount as Witten. You could argue that TDs have saved Cooley in several weeks, but I actually believe Cooley is one of the elite redzone receivers in the game...so I think it's a repeatable skill. I just moved Cooley up after this string of four straight very good games, but I definitely debated the move. I'll give some more thought to it.
I'm happy with Vernon Davis' progress in a rotten offense with the worst QB play in the league. Personally, I wouldn't go near him in a re-draft league, but I like him to keep improving and building value in dynasty leagues. Maybe I'm giving him a pass, but take a look at the guys ranked below him. Who are obvious candidates to be moved above him?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 12 2007, 12:24 AM)
but take a look at the guys ranked below him. Who are obvious candidates to be moved above him?
Heath Miller should be ranked above Vernon Davis, IMO. He's far more productive right now and still has upside.
QUOTE (Homer @ Dec 12 2007, 01:28 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 12 2007, 12:24 AM)
but take a look at the guys ranked below him. Who are obvious candidates to be moved above him?
Heath Miller should be ranked above Vernon Davis, IMO. He's far more productive right now and still has upside.
Do you believe that Miller has a better chance than Davis of ever cracking the top 3 in his career?
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 12 2007, 01:20 AM)
Cooley's an interesting case, in my opinion. We all know how much Gibbs loves his H-backs and Saunders loves his TEs... but I question how long either of those two will be around in Washington. I haven't seen very many Washington games, so I can't say what kind of talent he is- can someone with more knowledge tell me whether he's ranked there more on actual talent or past production? If he's legitimately one of the top-4 talents in the league at TE, that's one thing, but I suspect that rating is at least partially influenced by a system that might not be around much longer.
I have no problem with Vernon Davis's ranking. After you get past the top tier of TEs (in most years, anywhere from the top 3 to the top 6), there's a HUGE dropoff. There's no real difference between the #7 TE and the #12 TE, so I'd rather have a TE that was coming in at #12 right now, but had a good chance to crack the top 3 some day than a TE that was coming in at #7, but was much closer to his ceiling. San Francisco's offense is an unmitigated disaster, but Davis still has the tools to be a stud... and if he isn't, low-end startable TEs are a dime a dozen. Hell, I own Desmond Clark and I'd pretty much GIVE him away right now.
The TE whose ranking I most disagree with is Owen Daniels. I really love the way that kid plays the game, and I love his upside, especially with Kubiak at the helm. He's currently performing as TE9, he's 25 years old, he's playing in an offense where it'd be very easy for him to get more targets, for a coach who has been very inclined to give more targets to the TE, and at a level as a young player which compares well to a lot of other stud TEs... and he ranks 14th on that list? I'd put him above everyone else in tier 4 in a heartbeat. I'd also be very, very tempted to put him over Dallas Clark, to boot... mostly because I'm not convinced that Dallas Clark will still be around in Indy next year, and even if he is, this year has been something of an aberration for Indy's TEs, so I question whether Clark is at his ceiling right now.
I notice that system comes up in the conversation a lot more frequently for TEs, and I don't think that's an accident. I think more than any other position in fantasy football, the TE is affected by the circumstances- most notably, the coach's preferences and the competition for targets. TEs, it seems, should be ranked almost entirely based on their system unless they're one of those undeniable talents like Gates, Gonzo, or Winslow.
I have no problem with Vernon Davis's ranking. After you get past the top tier of TEs (in most years, anywhere from the top 3 to the top 6), there's a HUGE dropoff. There's no real difference between the #7 TE and the #12 TE, so I'd rather have a TE that was coming in at #12 right now, but had a good chance to crack the top 3 some day than a TE that was coming in at #7, but was much closer to his ceiling. San Francisco's offense is an unmitigated disaster, but Davis still has the tools to be a stud... and if he isn't, low-end startable TEs are a dime a dozen. Hell, I own Desmond Clark and I'd pretty much GIVE him away right now.
The TE whose ranking I most disagree with is Owen Daniels. I really love the way that kid plays the game, and I love his upside, especially with Kubiak at the helm. He's currently performing as TE9, he's 25 years old, he's playing in an offense where it'd be very easy for him to get more targets, for a coach who has been very inclined to give more targets to the TE, and at a level as a young player which compares well to a lot of other stud TEs... and he ranks 14th on that list? I'd put him above everyone else in tier 4 in a heartbeat. I'd also be very, very tempted to put him over Dallas Clark, to boot... mostly because I'm not convinced that Dallas Clark will still be around in Indy next year, and even if he is, this year has been something of an aberration for Indy's TEs, so I question whether Clark is at his ceiling right now.
I notice that system comes up in the conversation a lot more frequently for TEs, and I don't think that's an accident. I think more than any other position in fantasy football, the TE is affected by the circumstances- most notably, the coach's preferences and the competition for targets. TEs, it seems, should be ranked almost entirely based on their system unless they're one of those undeniable talents like Gates, Gonzo, or Winslow.
I think Cooley is very comparable in talent to Witten. Witten may be slightly more athletic, but I think Cooley's hands are in the same elite category with Winslow's. And Cooley is a top-notch redzone weapon. I think it's too difficult to predict a coaching change and how that will affect his performance. There's just too much gray area there to guess whether it would hurt his production or not. In fact, you could easily turn the debate around to say that Cooley's production will increase once he gets more consistent QB play from an improving Campbell or the vet that eventually replaces him.
I agree wholeheartedly with your Vernon Davis comments. Very well said. I agree with your Dallas Clark take too.
I'm an Owen Daniels owner, and I've actually been accused of being too high on him in the past. But honestly I just don't think he is as talented as Greg Olsen, Tony Scheffler, Heath Miller, and Ben Watson. I know we both agree that in most cases yardage will eventually lead to TDs, and Daniels has finally scored in two of the past three games. But I've noted on several occasions that he's been taken out of the game in the redzone in favor of some clown named Joel Dreesson. I'm probably making too much out of that...
Heath Miller is a decent fantasy TE already, and has very good red zone skills from what I've seen. Pittsburgh's passing offense has been much improved this year from last, and if it improves even more (personally I think that's a GIVEN), Miller's #'s should get even better. Top 3? I'm not ready to make that leap of faith yet, but Vernon Davis is NOWHERE EVEN CLOSE to a top 3 TE either, and right NOW, he's a very BAD fantasy starter. How that will miraculously improve as soon as the year turns to 2008, I have no idea. I'd feel a LOT better about Vernon Davis' long-term potential if he had shown ANYTHING so far in his NFL career to make it look that he's going to be a fantasy monster. He hasn't.
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