Mike Florio of the Sporting News on Brady Quinn:
November 16 update from Rotoworld:
"Brady Quinn could reportedly be shopped by Cleveland in the offseason.
Browns fans would love this. Atlanta, Chicago, Carolina, Minnesota, and Baltimore are named as possible landing spots for the former Notre Dame star. The Panthers and Bucs were known to be interested in Quinn before last April's draft. This is all assuming Cleveland extends Derek Anderson."
QUOTE
Holdout killing Quinn's Cleveland career
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
November 16 update from Rotoworld:
"Brady Quinn could reportedly be shopped by Cleveland in the offseason.
Browns fans would love this. Atlanta, Chicago, Carolina, Minnesota, and Baltimore are named as possible landing spots for the former Notre Dame star. The Panthers and Bucs were known to be interested in Quinn before last April's draft. This is all assuming Cleveland extends Derek Anderson."
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 04:11 AM) 
Mike Florio of the Sporting News on Brady Quinn:
QUOTE
Holdout killing Quinn's Cleveland career
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Eh....
I watched that game. There was nothing impressive about Derek Anderson or Cleveland's "performance."
But it will certainly be interesting to see what the Browns decide to do. They have an important decision ahead of them.
Hey, I am an owner of Rivers in a dynasty and I was thinking I got a steal because I really thought he would be a stud. What are your thoughts on him? Do you think last year was a fluke or this year is a fluke? One thing I have noticed from him is that he cannot handle any pressure in his face and he has no arm strength it is pathetic. I am leaning towards the idea of him just being a very average QB and last year was just a good year for him and I wouldn't expect him to put up those type of numbers very often. What are your thoughts on Rivers?
QUOTE (broncofan13000 @ Nov 11 2007, 10:33 PM)
F&L what are you're thoughts on Harrison? ... do you think he's a good buy low candidate, and can still put up solid #'s for the next 2 years?
broncofan13000,
A few weeks ago, I thought he was a good buy low candidate and that he could still put up starter numbers for two years. Now I'm not so sure. It's worrisome when they keep pushing back his return date while reports are coming out that his knee could be an issue until he calls it quits. He was supposed to be back every week starting a month ago, and I believe he would play if his knee would let him.
I don't mind buying low on injured player if I have a nice crisp, clean return date to go with a complete recovery. When there's this much ambiguity about an injury though, I just can't see taking the risk unless you have a better read on the situation than I do.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 04:11 AM)
Mike Florio of the Sporting News on Brady Quinn:
QUOTE
Holdout killing Quinn's Cleveland career
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Looks like Brady Quinn Dynasty owners will have to decide this off season if they can keep a spot warm on the bench for him for the next five years.
QUOTE (Steelers22 @ Nov 12 2007, 02:13 PM)
Hey, I am an owner of Rivers in a dynasty and I was thinking I got a steal because I really thought he would be a stud. What are your thoughts on him? Do you think last year was a fluke or this year is a fluke? One thing I have noticed from him is that he cannot handle any pressure in his face and he has no arm strength it is pathetic. I am leaning towards the idea of him just being a very average QB and last year was just a good year for him and I wouldn't expect him to put up those type of numbers very often. What are your thoughts on Rivers?
Yeah, I've noticed this about Rivers too...going back to last season. He has a little Grossman/Eli in him when it comes to dealing with pressure. Not only does he shy away from pressure, he sometimes looks like he wants to fall into the fetal position complete with thumb sucking. It's this I worry about much more than the arm strength. I was willing to give him space to grow as a first-time starter last season, especially when it seemed like it only happened against the really good defenses. But it's a clear pattern now, and he's going to have to turn it around soon.
I've upgraded him at times this year because he has excellent redzone receivers with Gates, Chambers, and Jackson. They're all way above average weapons near the endzone, and you had to figure Tomlinson wasn't going to rush for 30 TDs again. A guy coming off a 90+ QB rating in his first year with nice redzone weapons makes for a nice fantasy QB. But if he's going to crumble under pressure, all bets are off...
I don't like Cutler's weapons quite as much as Rivers', but I haven't seen Cutler back down from competing on the field....and he definitely has a stronger arm. For those reasons, I think he has a better NFL and fantasy future than Rivers.
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Nov 10 2007, 05:45 AM)
Can we have a thread where F&L and SSOG are the only ones allowed to post? I'd just bookmark that and not have to wade through the SP anymore.
Thanks guys.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 12 2007, 04:30 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 04:11 AM)
Mike Florio of the Sporting News on Brady Quinn:
QUOTE
Holdout killing Quinn's Cleveland career
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Although the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers on Sunday, 31-28, Cleveland's performance further cemented the status of Derek Anderson as its starting quarterback. And amid reports the Browns are now serious about signing Anderson to a long-term extension, rookie first-rounder Brady Quinn is quickly becoming a forgotten man.
The irony is that Quinn held out over incentive triggers that would unlock big-money payments in the future based on his playing time. This part of his contract now makes it easy for the team to keep him around as a backup, because if Anderson is the starter Quinn will never qualify for the extra payments.
In the end, Quinn got a better incentive package from the team, but the fact he showed up late for training camp prevented him from having a shot at being the first guy off the bench when former starter Charlie Frye was benched.
In fact, there's a chance that Anderson would have been released if Quinn had won the top backup job, given the strong affinity Quinn had developed for Ken Dorsey early in the preseason (Dorsey was re-signed only after the Browns shipped Frye to Seattle two days after the season opener.)
As it stands, the Browns can keep Quinn on ice for the next five seasons, at salaries that never exceed $700,000 in any given year. Eventually, he'll request a trade -- and if they're lucky the Browns will get back the first-round pick they gave up to get him.
Eh....
I watched that game. There was nothing impressive about Derek Anderson or Cleveland's "performance."
But it will certainly be interesting to see what the Browns decide to do. They have an important decision ahead of them.
I watched the same game and felt the same way. Potential problem..
11 Nov 18 @ BAL
12 Nov 25 HOU
13 Dec 2 @ ARI
14 Dec 9 @ NYJ
15 Dec 16 BUF
16 Dec 23 @ CIN
17 Dec 30 SFO
...there is no better schedule for a QB the last remaining games. Now if DA struggles, it make the Browns decision that much easier. If they do not (as they shouldn't), the Brown's will be somewhat forced to go with DA.
QUOTE (King of the Jungle @ Nov 12 2007, 09:45 PM)
...there is no better schedule for a QB the last remaining games. Now if DA struggles, it make the Browns decision that much easier. If they do not (as they shouldn't), the Brown's will be somewhat forced to go with DA.
I agree. That schedule is set up for success, so there's a good chance Anderson stays hot all year. At which point, the Browns will have to go into next season with him as the starting QB and a new contract....unless a QB-desperate team signs him to an obscene offer sheet.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 09:12 PM)
Thanks guys.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
I wouldn't feel too happy owning any of those guys at this point and would be looking to sell high on almost all of them. Rudi, Edge, and TJ are not impact players and will not help you win a championship. Grant and Fargas look pretty mediocre to me in spite of their recent success. I'd hold them for the duration of the season then look to deal them once the year is over with.
Only Young appears to have any real long-term upside, but I'll have to see a little more from him before I get too excited.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 12 2007, 10:10 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 09:12 PM)
Thanks guys.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
I wouldn't feel too happy owning any of those guys at this point and would be looking to sell high on almost all of them. Rudi, Edge, and TJ are not impact players and will not help you win a championship. Grant and Fargas look pretty mediocre to me in spite of their recent success. I'd hold them for the duration of the season then look to deal them once the year is over with.
Only Young appears to have any real long-term upside, but I'll have to see a little more from him before I get too excited.
before the SYoung lovefest gets underway, remember the history of the revolving door that is Denver RB - a different guy has led the team each of the past 5 years (counting 2007), and seven different backs in the past 9 years. Food for thought.
eta: for 2007, as of right now the Henry situation is still murky as well.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 12 2007, 10:10 PM)
I wouldn't feel too happy owning any of those guys at this point and would be looking to sell high on almost all of them. Rudi, Edge, and TJ are not impact players and will not help you win a championship. Grant and Fargas look pretty mediocre to me in spite of their recent success. I'd hold them for the duration of the season then look to deal them once the year is over with.
Only Young appears to have any real long-term upside, but I'll have to see a little more from him before I get too excited.
Only Young appears to have any real long-term upside, but I'll have to see a little more from him before I get too excited.
I like what I've seen from Selvin Young, and I definitely took notice way back in mid-September when Shanny, under no artificial prodding, proclaimed Selvin Young "definitely a starter in this league." And after seeing Shanny's statement today about Henry "not being on this football team" if the tests turn out to be positive, I couldn't help but wonder if Young's impressive game yesterday had anything to do with that stance. As Gregg Rosenthal said today, he flashed more big play ability yesterday than Travis Henry has all season. I wouldn't say this reminds of the Terrell Davis situation in Denver over 10 years ago, but it does at least faintly recall the early days of Willie Parker.
I don't have a good read yet on Ryan Grant. He seems like a scheme RB to me, but he's in the right scheme....and he has a great schedule down the stretch. On the other hand, is there a good chance he may never again have as good of a game as he had yesterday against a great rushing defense? I don't know. I could definitely see selling high on him.
I'd probably sell Fargas right now for anything above a gatorade flavor to be named later....and believe me, I'm trying to [Edit to add: mission accomplished there].
I'd hold Thomas Jones right now. I'm sure you can't get anything for him, so let's see if he can muster any 2nd half production after the QB switch....and then sell him either late in the season or after the season.
I'd package Edgerrin James with anything to try to get some value out of his name if another owner hasn't noticed Arrington and Shipp getting worked in lately....not to mention the 3.28 yards per carry since Week 3.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 03:19 PM)
I don't like Cutler's weapons quite as much as Rivers', but I haven't seen Cutler back down from competing on the field....and he definitely has a stronger arm. For those reasons, I think he has a better NFL and fantasy future than Rivers.
Javon Walker is a wildly underrated weapon in the passing game. He's a great deep threat, and the numbers suggest that he's the best red-zone WR this side of Larry Fitzgerald. With Marshall's shriek-inspiring potential, and two solid TEs in Scheffler and Graham, Cutler's not exactly lacking in weapons. Rivers' might be awesome in the red zone, but Cutler's aren't exactly chopped liver, and they're probably better between the 20s. Plus Cutler has Shanahan, who has to count as an offensive weapon (even if he has been seizing up in the red zone for the past few years), while Rivers has Norv Turner, who has to count as a negative weapon right now.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 09:12 PM)
Thanks guys.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
The problem with Ryan Grant is that Wynn was pretty darn good while he was healthy, too. Grant is at least going to face competition for his job, whereas I think Selvin Young is much more likely to wind up as the undisputed starter. Of course, Shanahan is always going to churn his RBs unless he finds another Davis or Portis (and even then he might just arrange a trade and continue the churn). I'd still rather have Young, though- if nothing else, you have to remember that Green Bay is one of the worst rushing offenses in the league and is going to lose Favre eventually, while Denver is always going to be Denver as long as Shanahan/Dennison/Turner are in town.
Rudi's a guy who I haven't been high on in a long time. His ypc has always been a little low for comfort, and it dropped even lower last year. A sub-4.0 ypc by a long-time vet is always a huge warning flag for me. When they ypc goes, the only way to maintain value is through sheer number of carries, which always catches up to you sooner or later. It's a vicious cycle- lower ypc = more carries = more wear and tear = lower ypc = more carries. It's a tailspin that it's hard for RBs to recover from- just witness the demise of Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, etc, etc, etc.
Same thing applies to Edge, plus he has the system working against him. NFL GMs are really, really smart dudes, and the reason why they don't pay big money for RBs is because most RBs are just a result of the system. That's why someone like Kenton Keith sets the world on fire while someone like Edgerrin James withers and dies.
As far as Fargas goes... I think Bush is going to get first shot when he's healthy. He was extremely highly regarded coming in, and he's going to at least get his shot. That tempers my enthusiasm about anyone else in Oakland, out of fear that they're living on borrowed time.
As a Packer fan that has watched every Ryan Grant carry this year, I will say I think this guy can play in the NFL for a while. I doubt anybody unseats him barring injury the rest of this season. However, I have little to no doubt in my mind that the Packers will do their best to upgrade the position in the offseason. Who they get will have everything to do with the future of Grant in GB. If the guy is a great player, Grant becomes a backup that gets typical backup type numbers. If the new guy is just good, I see Grant continuing to play a role with this team. Maybe similar to Julius Jones and Marion Barber. Bottom line is I don't think Grant is so good that the position won't be considered for upgrade in the offseason. How that plays out will have everything to do with Grants 2008 and beyond.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 12 2007, 11:16 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 03:19 PM)
I don't like Cutler's weapons quite as much as Rivers', but I haven't seen Cutler back down from competing on the field....and he definitely has a stronger arm. For those reasons, I think he has a better NFL and fantasy future than Rivers.
Javon Walker is a wildly underrated weapon in the passing game. He's a great deep threat, and the numbers suggest that he's the best red-zone WR this side of Larry Fitzgerald. With Marshall's shriek-inspiring potential, and two solid TEs in Scheffler and Graham, Cutler's not exactly lacking in weapons. Rivers' might be awesome in the red zone, but Cutler's aren't exactly chopped liver, and they're probably better between the 20s. Plus Cutler has Shanahan, who has to count as an offensive weapon (even if he has been seizing up in the red zone for the past few years), while Rivers has Norv Turner, who has to count as a negative weapon right now.
I don't know if Walker is as underrated so much as simply injured. Nobody ranks injured players highly, and they disappear from the conversation very quickly when they're not playing. Throw in words like "microfracture surgery", and it leaves a lot of people concerned about his future.
I think we agree on the rest. I thought Rivers' edge would be in TDs with the redzone weapons, but I now have concerns with his game that trump his potential TD production and last year's numbers. Shanahan is obviously a very nice advantage as an offensive mind to have in a QB's corner. And Marshall & Scheffler are very exciting. You don't have to convince me to take Cutler over Rivers right now.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 12 2007, 11:16 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 09:12 PM)
Thanks guys.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.
So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones?
I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.
Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.
The problem with Ryan Grant is that Wynn was pretty darn good while he was healthy, too. Grant is at least going to face competition for his job, whereas I think Selvin Young is much more likely to wind up as the undisputed starter. Of course, Shanahan is always going to churn his RBs unless he finds another Davis or Portis (and even then he might just arrange a trade and continue the churn). I'd still rather have Young, though- if nothing else, you have to remember that Green Bay is one of the worst rushing offenses in the league and is going to lose Favre eventually, while Denver is always going to be Denver as long as Shanahan/Dennison/Turner are in town.
Rudi's a guy who I haven't been high on in a long time. His ypc has always been a little low for comfort, and it dropped even lower last year. A sub-4.0 ypc by a long-time vet is always a huge warning flag for me. When they ypc goes, the only way to maintain value is through sheer number of carries, which always catches up to you sooner or later. It's a vicious cycle- lower ypc = more carries = more wear and tear = lower ypc = more carries. It's a tailspin that it's hard for RBs to recover from- just witness the demise of Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, etc, etc, etc.
Same thing applies to Edge, plus he has the system working against him. NFL GMs are really, really smart dudes, and the reason why they don't pay big money for RBs is because most RBs are just a result of the system. That's why someone like Kenton Keith sets the world on fire while someone like Edgerrin James withers and dies.
As far as Fargas goes... I think Bush is going to get first shot when he's healthy. He was extremely highly regarded coming in, and he's going to at least get his shot. That tempers my enthusiasm about anyone else in Oakland, out of fear that they're living on borrowed time.
See, I think Ryan Grant has been much more impressive than DeShawn Wynn, and I did like Wynn as a sleeper. But Wynn didn't look nearly as good as Ryan Grant and never really managed to wrest the lion's share of the work like Grant has. McCarthy is obviously more committed to Grant right now than he ever was to Wynn. Like I said, Grant has a great schedule down the stretch and has a chance to put a stamp on the GB running back job heading into next season. In my opinion, he's probably also a guy who will always have to fight off competition for the job in the future....even if he does manage to go into '08 as the starter.
I don't think we differ on Selvin Young or Rudi Johnson. I like Young better than Grant or any of the vets I listed. I mentioned that I wouldn't trade Young's potential for any of those guys. I left Rudi higher on the page one list because I tend to be more conservative with that list than I am with own team. But I guess if I like Young better than Rudi, I should rank him higher than Rudi. Hell, I wouldn't trade Young for LenDale White either...
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2007, 11:37 PM)
I don't know if Walker is as underrated so much as simply injured. Nobody ranks injured players highly, and they disappear from the conversation very quickly when they're not playing. Throw in words like "microfracture surgery", and it leaves a lot of people concerned about his future.
Understandably so, but he's shown good recovery skills in the past. You can't win championships without taking a few risks.
QUOTE
See, I think Ryan Grant has been much more impressive than DeShawn Wynn, and I did like Wynn as a sleeper. But Wynn didn't look nearly as good as Ryan Grant and never really managed to wrest the lion's share of the work like Grant has. McCarthy is obviously more committed to Grant right now than he ever was to Wynn. Like I said, Grant has a great schedule down the stretch and has a chance to put a stamp on the GB running back job heading into next season. In my opinion, he's probably also a guy who will always have to fight off competition for the job in the future....even if he does manage to go into '08 as the starter.
I don't think we differ on Selvin Young or Rudi Johnson. I like Young better than Grant or any of the vets I listed. I mentioned that I wouldn't trade Young's potential for any of those guys. I left Rudi higher on the page one list because I tend to be more conservative with that list than I am with own team. But I guess if I like Young better than Rudi, I should rank him higher than Rudi. Hell, I wouldn't trade Young for LenDale White either...
I don't think we differ on Selvin Young or Rudi Johnson. I like Young better than Grant or any of the vets I listed. I mentioned that I wouldn't trade Young's potential for any of those guys. I left Rudi higher on the page one list because I tend to be more conservative with that list than I am with own team. But I guess if I like Young better than Rudi, I should rank him higher than Rudi. Hell, I wouldn't trade Young for LenDale White either...
I must admit that I haven't seen Ryan Grant play yet, so I can't draw too many conclusions about him. I have seen Wynn play, though. I'm a Gator fan, so I've seen a lot of Wynn in college, and I have to say, I was extremely down on his chances coming out (along with Chad Jackson's). With that said, I was very surprised by what he showed. If nothing else, he has demonstrated top-notch goal-line skills. Even if Grant is a big-time talent, Wynn could put a serious dent in his production.
I do think we differ on Rudi Johnson, though. I have him on my Must-Sell list. If I owned him, I would feel a very, very strong need to move him the second his value seems to peak. Like I said, I think he's in a tailspin. I think he has marginal value this year, and even less in the future, and I don't want another Jamal Lewis on my hands. Some other names on my must-sell list would include Edge, Jamal Lewis, and Matt Leinart (seriously).
I think the big problem with Dynasty Rankings is that you really need several different sets of rankings. Obviously, a "win now" team would rank players dramatically differently than a rebuilding team. Also, a team with a few explosive studs already (guys like a Peterson, Brady, or Westbrook) but little quality support around them would love any RB getting good carries, while a team with lots of solid-but-unspectacular players is going to be swinging for a potential breakout stud to put them over the hump. I've been toying with the idea of doing 5-tiered dynasty rankings (win now, rebuild, upside, reliability, overall)... but the big problem with a project like that is the same as with any other project- time.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 13 2007, 12:25 AM)
I do think we differ on Rudi Johnson, though. I have him on my Must-Sell list. If I owned him, I would feel a very, very strong need to move him the second his value seems to peak. Like I said, I think he's in a tailspin. I think he has marginal value this year, and even less in the future, and I don't want another Jamal Lewis on my hands. Some other names on my must-sell list would include Edge, Jamal Lewis, and Matt Leinart (seriously).
We don't differ on Rudi. There's no doubt he's on the downside, and I don't think there's much of a chance of him making it through 2008 as the Bengals' starting RB. I'd sell hard on Rudi as well, but I also believe it would be a tremendous challenge to sell him. I was just talking to the Rudi owner in one of my leagues last week, and he told me he's been trying to deal him since the beginning of the season. Nobody wants him. He's tried every team in the league except me, and even the annual turds don't want him. In which case, you may have to hope that the Bengals' easy schedule lends itself to a couple of 100 yard, 1 or 2 TD games for Rudi late in the season and then flip him for whatever you can get. There's a much better chance of Rudi building value down the stretch than there is for Edge or Jamal Lewis.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 13 2007, 12:25 AM)
I think the big problem with Dynasty Rankings is that you really need several different sets of rankings. Obviously, a "win now" team would rank players dramatically differently than a rebuilding team. Also, a team with a few explosive studs already (guys like a Peterson, Brady, or Westbrook) but little quality support around them would love any RB getting good carries, while a team with lots of solid-but-unspectacular players is going to be swinging for a potential breakout stud to put them over the hump. I've been toying with the idea of doing 5-tiered dynasty rankings (win now, rebuild, upside, reliability, overall)... but the big problem with a project like that is the same as with any other project- time.
Absolutely. Great points. But like you said, who's going to take the time to do all of that? And why can't guys adjust for their own team and league specificity? Instead of resorting to insults and outrage on rankings, I think people should keep in mind that their league isn't set up the same way as everybody else's and their team's needs and priorities are likely to be considerably different.
The way I see it is if you can't take somebody else's rankings and adjust for your own specific team's strengths and weaknesses as well as league setup, then you're probably beyond hope as a dynasty league owner anyway. My goal has never been hand-holding for the fantasy football challenged. If these rankings work as a generic baseline to help others gauge dynasty value while stimulating interesting discussion/debate at the same time, then I'm OK with coming up short on running somebody's roster for them.
You can't forget about Andre Hall when discussing the Denver RB situation. He will get his chances too all be it in a secondary role. If Selvin slips up or his much discussed durability issues prove to be true Hall may see more of the field. Certainly Young has produced in his short time on the field but Hall may be the lurking dark horse.
How Wynn will factor into the GB running back situation when healthy is irrelevant, because he will never be healthy.
The guy just doesn't take care of himself. He's always way overweight, and as such when healthy he's constantly leaving games in the 1st half or missing games after warmups because he's dehydrated or has cramps or any other lists of ways to say he's just always out of shape. This goes back to all 4 years in college, and didn't change at all year 1 in the NFL. I warned people against starting him all year because he'd be leaving countless games in the 1st quarter. He certainly followed suit.
The guy just doesn't take care of himself. He's always way overweight, and as such when healthy he's constantly leaving games in the 1st half or missing games after warmups because he's dehydrated or has cramps or any other lists of ways to say he's just always out of shape. This goes back to all 4 years in college, and didn't change at all year 1 in the NFL. I warned people against starting him all year because he'd be leaving countless games in the 1st quarter. He certainly followed suit.
QUOTE (munchkin @ Nov 13 2007, 08:07 AM)
You can't forget about Andre Hall when discussing the Denver RB situation. He will get his chances too all be it in a secondary role. If Selvin slips up or his much discussed durability issues prove to be true Hall may see more of the field. Certainly Young has produced in his short time on the field but Hall may be the lurking dark horse.
People have been pushing Hall into the conversation all along since the Henry suspension talk got started, and I've thought they were off all along. When the coach goes out of his way early in the season to say that an undrafted rookie is "definitely a starter in this league" and then makes sure he gets the ball in his hands a few times a game, then he's the guy I want. When has he ever deemed Andre Hall "the future" or tried to make sure he gets worked into a game?
If your argument is that it's the Broncos, so we never know what could happen....well, OK I guess. Young does have somewhat of a reputation for fragility, and the Broncos have toyed around with the RB situation quite a bit in the past.
But Young is obviously more talented than Hall, and Shanahan obviously likes Young much better. I don't see him "changing his mind" and going to Hall just for gits and shiggles. Barring injury to Young, I don't see Hall as more valuable than any other garden variety back-up/3rd stringers.
Personally, I would bump Gore down a bit. The fact of the matter is that many rb's have their best season (except LT) when he is their OC. I realize he hasn't been healthy, but he looks a little slow and heavy. I get nervous any time players sign a big contract and then gain weight. I would move him for a few guys you have listed beneath him- specifically Lynch.
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Nov 13 2007, 10:05 AM)
Personally, I would bump Gore down a bit. The fact of the matter is that many rb's have their best season (except LT) when he is their OC. I realize he hasn't been healthy, but he looks a little slow and heavy. I get nervous any time players sign a big contract and then gain weight. I would move him for a few guys you have listed beneath him- specifically Lynch.
Slow and heavy? Not the guy I saw last night. I was looking to see if anything was wrong with Gore, but he was great as usual. The rest of the offense blows.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:38 AM)
Slow and heavy? Not the guy I saw last night. I was looking to see if anything was wrong with Gore, but he was great as usual. The rest of the offense blows.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
We can agree to disagree. I thought that he looked slower and heavier than I have seen him. His YPC are more than half yard off of his previous low, and his yards per catch are (to a lesser degree) a career low as well. In limited carries, his back ups have fared as well or better.
Lynch has a lower YPC, but I do expect that to improve a bit as he learns the pro game. He has an equally poor line- as evidenced by the fact that his back ups have performed much worse than he has. With fewer injuries, less wear and tear, and a 3 year age gap- I do prefer him.
Could you elaborate on your Turner comments. How are they conspiracy theory-ish? Quite a few guys, Not just Emmitt, LT and Gore have put up big number in his offenses - busted knee Terry Allen, Ricky Williams and Lamont Jordan. He has always had a good sized back, and he has always hammered away with him, particularly in red zone.
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Nov 13 2007, 11:13 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:38 AM)
Slow and heavy? Not the guy I saw last night. I was looking to see if anything was wrong with Gore, but he was great as usual. The rest of the offense blows.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
We can agree to disagree. I thought that he looked slower and heavier than I have seen him. His YPC are more than half yard off of his previous low, and his yards per catch are (to a lesser degree) a career low as well. In limited carries, his back ups have fared as well or better.
Lynch has a lower YPC, but I do expect that to improve a bit as he learns the pro game. He has an equally poor line- as evidenced by the fact that his back ups have performed much worse than he has. With fewer injuries, less wear and tear, and a 3 year age gap- I do prefer him.
Could you elaborate on your Turner comments. How are they conspiracy theory-ish? Quite a few guys, Not just Emmitt, LT and Gore have put up big number in his offenses - busted knee Terry Allen, Ricky Williams and Lamont Jordan. He has always had a good sized back, and he has always hammered away with him, particularly in red zone.
This limited carries by back-ups stuff is total bunk. The sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. I think you're grasping at straws when there's no reliable data there.
Lynch doesn't have an equally poor O-line. The Niners & Rams O-lines this year are historically bad. The Bills' may be subpar, but they're not on the same level of wretchedness as SF's.
Didn't Tomlinson put up his outlier season last year under Cam Cameron? And hasn't he fared much worse under Turner? Maybe they should dig up Jamal Lewis' OC from 2003 or Barry Sanders' old OC. The Vikes' offensive coordinator sure has been great for Adrian Peterson this year. A team with a struggling running game should hire him away from the Vikings and create a stud elsewhere. It's not like Norv Turner is hoarding the magic potion that turns any RB into a mega-stud. Turner may be a factor, but he's not the reason Frank Gore hasn't been productive this year. His brutal O-line, rotten QB, and minor injuries are. Norv Turner can't block for Frank Gore or create a semblance of a passing game. Gore's talent should be obvious to anybody who watches him....it didn't pack itself up and skip town in Norv Turner's carpetbag.
Is it a problem that the Niners offense is so inept that Gore's production has suffered? Yes. Were the same arguments used against Ronnie Brown before this season? Yes. Were the same arguments used against Adrian Peterson before this season? Yes. The talent remains, he's closer to being fully healthy, and the rushing offense can work its way up to respectability when you're not looking. Things can change in a hurry. Look at Ronnie Brown's perceived value in Week 2 this year compared to his perceived value in Week 4.
If Gore is tier 1, than Portis certainly has to be in that same tier as well. JMO of course.
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Nov 13 2007, 01:40 PM)
If Gore is tier 1, than Portis certainly has to be in that same tier as well. JMO of course.
Here we go again on Clinton Portis...
Have you considered dropping AD a bit considering that he came into the league with an injury prone reputation, and now is hurt 10 weeks into the season?
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Nov 13 2007, 01:48 PM)
Have you considered dropping AD a bit considering that he came into the league with an injury prone reputation, and now is hurt 10 weeks into the season?
Never crossed my mind.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:01 AM)
QUOTE (munchkin @ Nov 13 2007, 08:07 AM)
You can't forget about Andre Hall when discussing the Denver RB situation. He will get his chances too all be it in a secondary role. If Selvin slips up or his much discussed durability issues prove to be true Hall may see more of the field. Certainly Young has produced in his short time on the field but Hall may be the lurking dark horse.
People have been pushing Hall into the conversation all along since the Henry suspension talk got started, and I've thought they were off all along. When the coach goes out of his way early in the season to say that an undrafted rookie is "definitely a starter in this league" and then makes sure he gets the ball in his hands a few times a game, then he's the guy I want. When has he ever deemed Andre Hall "the future" or tried to make sure he gets worked into a game?
If your argument is that it's the Broncos, so we never know what could happen....well, OK I guess. Young does have somewhat of a reputation for fragility, and the Broncos have toyed around with the RB situation quite a bit in the past.
But Young is obviously more talented than Hall, and Shanahan obviously likes Young much better. I don't see him "changing his mind" and going to Hall just for gits and shiggles. Barring injury to Young, I don't see Hall as more valuable than any other garden variety back-up/3rd stringers.
F&L,
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him
), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc? I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
F&L, went back and read, re-read much of this FANTASTIC thread last night, and was severely inspired. Forgive my specific examples, but I have to mention that I actually ended up getting Big Ben and Gore for Kitna and ADDAI. Kitna, to me, was a very weak starting Qb option for 2008, and R'berger was the best value QB available as in my specific league he's backing up Brady.
The reason I bring all this up, is that I guess this boils down to a referendum on a Gore vs. Addai question. I read with great interest the back-and-forth about Gore vs. Addai several pages back, and took the Gore fans' perspective to heart. The numbers THIS YEAR, however, look HORRIBLE for that trade. I'm pretty sure we all agree that even next year, whatever talent advantage Gore has over Addai, the Colts will stull be, at the very minimum, a VERY good NFL offense, and that Addai is likely to be heavily featured in that offense and a big favorite to repeat this year's excellent numbers. Meanwhile, Gore is stuck in the offensive morass that is the 49'ers right now, something unlikely to improve dramatically, even if a brand new coaching staff is brought in and a competent NFL QB is acquired.
So, I guess, I'm trying to re-open the Addai/Gore debate. Can someone give me a sunny, positive feel-good inspiration for next year with Gore? F&L, your rankings still have him in a pretty dead heat with Addai. This year's numbers have been very, very unkind to those ratings.
Something I also took to heart were the comments about having "difference makers". Addai has been one this season. Gore has most cartainly NOT. Will this continue next year?
The reason I bring all this up, is that I guess this boils down to a referendum on a Gore vs. Addai question. I read with great interest the back-and-forth about Gore vs. Addai several pages back, and took the Gore fans' perspective to heart. The numbers THIS YEAR, however, look HORRIBLE for that trade. I'm pretty sure we all agree that even next year, whatever talent advantage Gore has over Addai, the Colts will stull be, at the very minimum, a VERY good NFL offense, and that Addai is likely to be heavily featured in that offense and a big favorite to repeat this year's excellent numbers. Meanwhile, Gore is stuck in the offensive morass that is the 49'ers right now, something unlikely to improve dramatically, even if a brand new coaching staff is brought in and a competent NFL QB is acquired.
So, I guess, I'm trying to re-open the Addai/Gore debate. Can someone give me a sunny, positive feel-good inspiration for next year with Gore? F&L, your rankings still have him in a pretty dead heat with Addai. This year's numbers have been very, very unkind to those ratings.
Something I also took to heart were the comments about having "difference makers". Addai has been one this season. Gore has most cartainly NOT. Will this continue next year?
A player I was pleasantly surprised to see prminently featured in the WR rankings was Braylon Edwards. I happen to be drinking the Kool Aid with him as well, as I pretty much LOVE everything I have seen from him this year, and think that with his combo of age, pass-happy situation and tools, he's going to be a stud for years to come.
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2007, 08:17 PM)
So, I guess, I'm trying to re-open the Addai/Gore debate. Can someone give me a sunny, positive feel-good inspiration for next year with Gore?
Well, a bunch of coaches could get fired and a competent QB could come in to take Alex Smith's job. Meanwhile, the OL should better next year. After all, Staley was/will be a top 5 pick. That's a flip response - but seriously if the case against Gore is his situation, and that situation is about to change, then I'd guess we have to figure out what the 49ers will look like next year. Who will be coaching, who will be QB'ing, what they will do with the OL, and so forth.
back to lurking . . .
Do you think now may be a good buy low time on Deangelo Williams? The rumor of Foster's toe is not mainstream yet and if he gets to start uncontested he could finally take off and not look back. He could also thud but I'm thinking now's the time to pounce.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 01:30 PM)
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Nov 13 2007, 11:13 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:38 AM)
Slow and heavy? Not the guy I saw last night. I was looking to see if anything was wrong with Gore, but he was great as usual. The rest of the offense blows.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
I'm not a big proponent of a Norv Turner factor....too conspiracy theory-ish to me. His absence isn't the reason Gore has struggled to put up numbers this year. His embarrassing O-Line and putrid QB are.
Even behind that god-awful line in a lifeless offense Gore is still averaging more YPC than Lynch. He's a more explosive RB. Lynch has just managed to pop a few more into the endzone.
We can agree to disagree. I thought that he looked slower and heavier than I have seen him. His YPC are more than half yard off of his previous low, and his yards per catch are (to a lesser degree) a career low as well. In limited carries, his back ups have fared as well or better.
Lynch has a lower YPC, but I do expect that to improve a bit as he learns the pro game. He has an equally poor line- as evidenced by the fact that his back ups have performed much worse than he has. With fewer injuries, less wear and tear, and a 3 year age gap- I do prefer him.
Could you elaborate on your Turner comments. How are they conspiracy theory-ish? Quite a few guys, Not just Emmitt, LT and Gore have put up big number in his offenses - busted knee Terry Allen, Ricky Williams and Lamont Jordan. He has always had a good sized back, and he has always hammered away with him, particularly in red zone.
This limited carries by back-ups stuff is total bunk. The sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. I think you're grasping at straws when there's no reliable data there.
Lynch doesn't have an equally poor O-line. The Niners & Rams O-lines this year are historically bad. The Bills' may be subpar, but they're not on the same level of wretchedness as SF's.
Didn't Tomlinson put up his outlier season last year under Cam Cameron? And hasn't he fared much worse under Turner? Maybe they should dig up Jamal Lewis' OC from 2003 or Barry Sanders' old OC. The Vikes' offensive coordinator sure has been great for Adrian Peterson this year. A team with a struggling running game should hire him away from the Vikings and create a stud elsewhere. It's not like Norv Turner is hoarding the magic potion that turns any RB into a mega-stud. Turner may be a factor, but he's not the reason Frank Gore hasn't been productive this year. His brutal O-line, rotten QB, and minor injuries are. Norv Turner can't block for Frank Gore or create a semblance of a passing game. Gore's talent should be obvious to anybody who watches him....it didn't pack itself up and skip town in Norv Turner's carpetbag.
Is it a problem that the Niners offense is so inept that Gore's production has suffered? Yes. Were the same arguments used against Ronnie Brown before this season? Yes. Were the same arguments used against Adrian Peterson before this season? Yes. The talent remains, he's closer to being fully healthy, and the rushing offense can work its way up to respectability when you're not looking. Things can change in a hurry. Look at Ronnie Brown's perceived value in Week 2 this year compared to his perceived value in Week 4.
Feeling a little testy today? It isn't like I just stepped into the thread today for the first time and started sniping at you. I wasn't snarky or dismissive. I just had a simple difference of opinion regarding Gore, his tier, and some of my perceptions regarding his significant drop off in performance. Usually you are open minded to conversation. Sometimes you are willing to reconsider things and then make a decision. That doesn't seem to be the case today, and that's fine.
Few last things from my end:
1)I don't see a huge difference in the SF and Buffalo O-Lines for run blocking. McGahee never broke 4.0 in Buffalo, no he is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. In the last decade, Buffalo has had one season where the main back has averaged over 4.3 yards per carry. Buffalo has had mediocre to bad quarterbacking.
2) The best guys do well in any situation. Ronnie Brown was doing well despite the disaster in Miami. Peterson has a good line, but horrible quarterbacking and average at best coaching. LT did fine with a craptastic line his first years in SD. Would Gore do better with a better QB, better line play and not constantly being behind? Sure. I am not arguing that.
3) We can agree to disagree about Turner. I don't think he is a good coach. He is a horrible leader of men, and that team desperately needed some leadership after the playoff loss and difficult offseason. I think another one of his flaws is that he can't adjust his coaching to his personnel. Good coaches do that. However, he always features a running game, particularly in the red zone. Tomlinson is having a very Tomlinson like year. It isn't like last year, but he isn't sucking. He has had worse years.
4) Funny you should bring up Ronnie Brown and Cam Cameron. Who is Brown's coach? Cameron. Where did Cameron begin coaching at the NFL level? With Norv Turner in Washington.
5) Gore had far more explosive plays last year. He had at least 10 plays of 25 yards or more last year. In limited touches in 05 he had at least 5. This season, in the same amount of touches as 05, he has one play of over 25 yards. If you want to call a big play 15 yards, the rough breakdown is this: 07-7plays, 06-20 plays, 05- 9 plays. (These numbers may be slightly low. I looked at the game long runs/passes on the yahoo game log. If he had a 15 yard run and a 22 yard run in the same game, I would miss the 15 yard run.)
QUOTE (rabidfireweasel @ Nov 13 2007, 09:25 PM)
Feeling a little testy today? It isn't like I just stepped into the thread today for the first time and started sniping at you. I wasn't snarky or dismissive. I just had a simple difference of opinion regarding Gore, his tier, and some of my perceptions regarding his significant drop off in performance. Usually you are open minded to conversation. Sometimes you are willing to reconsider things and then make a decision. That doesn't seem to be the case today, and that's fine.
Few last things from my end:
1)I don't see a huge difference in the SF and Buffalo O-Lines for run blocking. McGahee never broke 4.0 in Buffalo, no he is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. In the last decade, Buffalo has had one season where the main back has averaged over 4.3 yards per carry. Buffalo has had mediocre to bad quarterbacking.
2) The best guys do well in any situation. Ronnie Brown was doing well despite the disaster in Miami. Peterson has a good line, but horrible quarterbacking and average at best coaching. LT did fine with a craptastic line his first years in SD. Would Gore do better with a better QB, better line play and not constantly being behind? Sure. I am not arguing that.
3) We can agree to disagree about Turner. I don't think he is a good coach. He is a horrible leader of men, and that team desperately needed some leadership after the playoff loss and difficult offseason. I think another one of his flaws is that he can't adjust his coaching to his personnel. Good coaches do that. However, he always features a running game, particularly in the red zone. Tomlinson is having a very Tomlinson like year. It isn't like last year, but he isn't sucking. He has had worse years.
4) Funny you should bring up Ronnie Brown and Cam Cameron. Who is Brown's coach? Cameron. Where did Cameron begin coaching at the NFL level? With Norv Turner in Washington.
5) Gore had far more explosive plays last year. He had at least 10 plays of 25 yards or more last year. In limited touches in 05 he had at least 5. This season, in the same amount of touches as 05, he has one play of over 25 yards. If you want to call a big play 15 yards, the rough breakdown is this: 07-7plays, 06-20 plays, 05- 9 plays. (These numbers may be slightly low. I looked at the game long runs/passes on the yahoo game log. If he had a 15 yard run and a 22 yard run in the same game, I would miss the 15 yard run.)
Few last things from my end:
1)I don't see a huge difference in the SF and Buffalo O-Lines for run blocking. McGahee never broke 4.0 in Buffalo, no he is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. In the last decade, Buffalo has had one season where the main back has averaged over 4.3 yards per carry. Buffalo has had mediocre to bad quarterbacking.
2) The best guys do well in any situation. Ronnie Brown was doing well despite the disaster in Miami. Peterson has a good line, but horrible quarterbacking and average at best coaching. LT did fine with a craptastic line his first years in SD. Would Gore do better with a better QB, better line play and not constantly being behind? Sure. I am not arguing that.
3) We can agree to disagree about Turner. I don't think he is a good coach. He is a horrible leader of men, and that team desperately needed some leadership after the playoff loss and difficult offseason. I think another one of his flaws is that he can't adjust his coaching to his personnel. Good coaches do that. However, he always features a running game, particularly in the red zone. Tomlinson is having a very Tomlinson like year. It isn't like last year, but he isn't sucking. He has had worse years.
4) Funny you should bring up Ronnie Brown and Cam Cameron. Who is Brown's coach? Cameron. Where did Cameron begin coaching at the NFL level? With Norv Turner in Washington.
5) Gore had far more explosive plays last year. He had at least 10 plays of 25 yards or more last year. In limited touches in 05 he had at least 5. This season, in the same amount of touches as 05, he has one play of over 25 yards. If you want to call a big play 15 yards, the rough breakdown is this: 07-7plays, 06-20 plays, 05- 9 plays. (These numbers may be slightly low. I looked at the game long runs/passes on the yahoo game log. If he had a 15 yard run and a 22 yard run in the same game, I would miss the 15 yard run.)
I don't think I was testy. I'm sorry if it came off that way because I do always appreciate your input. I just disagree with you on the merits of Frank Gore vs. Marshawn Lynch.
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Nov 13 2007, 09:13 PM)
Do you think now may be a good buy low time on Deangelo Williams? The rumor of Foster's toe is not mainstream yet and if he gets to start uncontested he could finally take off and not look back. He could also thud but I'm thinking now's the time to pounce.
I had him in the buy low section last week with this qualifier:
QUOTE
Can DeAngelo Williams' value get lower? Something's goofy there. A first round pick averaging 5.0 ypc, and he can't even nudge DeShaun Foster much less push him aside. There almost has to be more to the story here....but if you really believe in Williams' talent, now is the time to strike.
Personally, I've had it with John Fox and RBs. I just don't trust him to play his best back.
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2007, 08:22 PM)
A player I was pleasantly surprised to see prminently featured in the WR rankings was Braylon Edwards. I happen to be drinking the Kool Aid with him as well, as I pretty much LOVE everything I have seen from him this year, and think that with his combo of age, pass-happy situation and tools, he's going to be a stud for years to come.
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
I just recently moved him up a few spots to where he is now. You can't argue with how productive he's been this year, and he is young & ultra-talented. My concern with him has been the uncertainty you mentioned with Anderson/Quinn at QB. I highly doubt Quinn would be an upgrade on Edwards' production (you mention Anderson's questionable accuracy, but fail to credit him for his big play ability), but it's looking more likely now than it was a month ago that Anderson will hold onto the job for awhile....unless he prices himself out of Cleveland's plans. My best guess it that both Anderson & Quinn will be Cleveland Browns again in 2008.
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2007, 08:17 PM)
F&L, went back and read, re-read much of this FANTASTIC thread last night, and was severely inspired. Forgive my specific examples, but I have to mention that I actually ended up getting Big Ben and Gore for Kitna and ADDAI. Kitna, to me, was a very weak starting Qb option for 2008, and R'berger was the best value QB available as in my specific league he's backing up Brady.
The reason I bring all this up, is that I guess this boils down to a referendum on a Gore vs. Addai question. I read with great interest the back-and-forth about Gore vs. Addai several pages back, and took the Gore fans' perspective to heart. The numbers THIS YEAR, however, look HORRIBLE for that trade. I'm pretty sure we all agree that even next year, whatever talent advantage Gore has over Addai, the Colts will stull be, at the very minimum, a VERY good NFL offense, and that Addai is likely to be heavily featured in that offense and a big favorite to repeat this year's excellent numbers. Meanwhile, Gore is stuck in the offensive morass that is the 49'ers right now, something unlikely to improve dramatically, even if a brand new coaching staff is brought in and a competent NFL QB is acquired.
So, I guess, I'm trying to re-open the Addai/Gore debate. Can someone give me a sunny, positive feel-good inspiration for next year with Gore? F&L, your rankings still have him in a pretty dead heat with Addai. This year's numbers have been very, very unkind to those ratings.
Something I also took to heart were the comments about having "difference makers". Addai has been one this season. Gore has most cartainly NOT. Will this continue next year?
The reason I bring all this up, is that I guess this boils down to a referendum on a Gore vs. Addai question. I read with great interest the back-and-forth about Gore vs. Addai several pages back, and took the Gore fans' perspective to heart. The numbers THIS YEAR, however, look HORRIBLE for that trade. I'm pretty sure we all agree that even next year, whatever talent advantage Gore has over Addai, the Colts will stull be, at the very minimum, a VERY good NFL offense, and that Addai is likely to be heavily featured in that offense and a big favorite to repeat this year's excellent numbers. Meanwhile, Gore is stuck in the offensive morass that is the 49'ers right now, something unlikely to improve dramatically, even if a brand new coaching staff is brought in and a competent NFL QB is acquired.
So, I guess, I'm trying to re-open the Addai/Gore debate. Can someone give me a sunny, positive feel-good inspiration for next year with Gore? F&L, your rankings still have him in a pretty dead heat with Addai. This year's numbers have been very, very unkind to those ratings.
Something I also took to heart were the comments about having "difference makers". Addai has been one this season. Gore has most cartainly NOT. Will this continue next year?
Thanks Homer. I'm glad you stayed with me after my complete botching of Romo's pre-season ranking.
I don't really have the energy for another Gore/Addai debate. I'm not trying to be evasive or coy or unwilling to cooperate....it's just that my thoughts on Gore are literally scattered all over the last four or five pages of this thread, and I'm just burned out from rehashing the same points. In the end, it just comes down to whether you believe he's an elite talent at RB or not. I've seen him quite a bit the last two years, and I believe he is an elite talent.
I obviously think he has plenty of value and that running games can rebound in an offense very quickly. Nobody really answered me when I asked a couple of weeks ago what the difference is between Steven Jackson's value and Frank Gore's value. Both had incredible seasons last year. Both are extremely talented. Both have been in rotten offenses running behind historically bad offensive lines. And both have been very disappointing this season. I happen to like Jackson better because I've had him as a top three back for almost two years now, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he and Gore have been in very similar situations this season....yet people are only calling for Gore's head.
Edit to add -- here's what Gregg Rosenthal had to say about Frank Gore today in his Pancake Blocks blog:
QUOTE
Well, that Monday night game wasn't too fun. Our guys (D.J. Hackett and Frank Gore), both played great, but Gore was held to only 13 carries because of the score. It still made zero sense that the 49ers went away from Gore early in the second half when he was ripping off chunks of yardage.
Call me stubborn, but I think it's a testament to Gore's skills that he's averaging 4.1 yards-per-carry while playing for the worst passing offense of the decade. That is not hyperbole.
I checked the numbers (thanks to Doug Drinen for double checking), and San Francisco's current 4.87 YPA would be the worst team average since the 1968 Bills, who were part of the AFL at the time. Considering the liberalization of defensive contact rules in the last three decades, it's easy to argue that Smith is leading the worst passing attack of all time. They are worse than Smith's rookie year; worse than the Andrew Walter Raiders; they are even worse than the Akili Smith/Scott Mitchell Bengals.
Heads are going to roll. Offensive coordinator Jim Hostler will be first, and he's already taking heat inside the locker room. (One note to Vernon Davis: If you are going to complain about blocking too much, try not to miss assignments that lead directly to turnovers).
Alex Smith's shoulder may be the primary cause for his struggles, but the 49ers will need to bring in competition for him next year too. Gore owners, meanwhile, probably aren't going to see him a huge rebound this year. I will still happily gobble him next season when his ADP takes a huge hit.
Things change so fast in the NFL, and the power of being pulled to the mean is so strong, that the 49ers passing game should creep back to merely bad next year. Gore was able to top 2,000 total yards last year on a mediocre offense, and can do it again. The 49ers wish they were mediocre this year.
Call me stubborn, but I think it's a testament to Gore's skills that he's averaging 4.1 yards-per-carry while playing for the worst passing offense of the decade. That is not hyperbole.
I checked the numbers (thanks to Doug Drinen for double checking), and San Francisco's current 4.87 YPA would be the worst team average since the 1968 Bills, who were part of the AFL at the time. Considering the liberalization of defensive contact rules in the last three decades, it's easy to argue that Smith is leading the worst passing attack of all time. They are worse than Smith's rookie year; worse than the Andrew Walter Raiders; they are even worse than the Akili Smith/Scott Mitchell Bengals.
Heads are going to roll. Offensive coordinator Jim Hostler will be first, and he's already taking heat inside the locker room. (One note to Vernon Davis: If you are going to complain about blocking too much, try not to miss assignments that lead directly to turnovers).
Alex Smith's shoulder may be the primary cause for his struggles, but the 49ers will need to bring in competition for him next year too. Gore owners, meanwhile, probably aren't going to see him a huge rebound this year. I will still happily gobble him next season when his ADP takes a huge hit.
Things change so fast in the NFL, and the power of being pulled to the mean is so strong, that the 49ers passing game should creep back to merely bad next year. Gore was able to top 2,000 total yards last year on a mediocre offense, and can do it again. The 49ers wish they were mediocre this year.
I think Mark Clayton is a pretty good buy right now. I can't really advocate moving him up your list because most of the guys who are ranked in front of him have earned their rankings. But I still feel that Clayton is a talented receiver who will eventually carve out a role as a productive starting WR in the NFL. I see him eventually becoming a solid WR2/WR3 in the vein of Laveranues Coles and Derrick Mason. The guy has had a horrible year, but he's a ball player.
QUOTE (thehornet @ Nov 13 2007, 01:56 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:01 AM)
QUOTE (munchkin @ Nov 13 2007, 08:07 AM)
You can't forget about Andre Hall when discussing the Denver RB situation. He will get his chances too all be it in a secondary role. If Selvin slips up or his much discussed durability issues prove to be true Hall may see more of the field. Certainly Young has produced in his short time on the field but Hall may be the lurking dark horse.
People have been pushing Hall into the conversation all along since the Henry suspension talk got started, and I've thought they were off all along. When the coach goes out of his way early in the season to say that an undrafted rookie is "definitely a starter in this league" and then makes sure he gets the ball in his hands a few times a game, then he's the guy I want. When has he ever deemed Andre Hall "the future" or tried to make sure he gets worked into a game?
If your argument is that it's the Broncos, so we never know what could happen....well, OK I guess. Young does have somewhat of a reputation for fragility, and the Broncos have toyed around with the RB situation quite a bit in the past.
But Young is obviously more talented than Hall, and Shanahan obviously likes Young much better. I don't see him "changing his mind" and going to Hall just for gits and shiggles. Barring injury to Young, I don't see Hall as more valuable than any other garden variety back-up/3rd stringers.
F&L,
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him
), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc? I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Selvin was never healthy and on the field at Texas. There were also some knocks on his running skills coming out, but nothing that wasn't coachable.
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2007, 08:22 PM)
A player I was pleasantly surprised to see prminently featured in the WR rankings was Braylon Edwards. I happen to be drinking the Kool Aid with him as well, as I pretty much LOVE everything I have seen from him this year, and think that with his combo of age, pass-happy situation and tools, he's going to be a stud for years to come.
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.
I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?
Big fan of Edward's. His per-target numbers and catch% are both solid-to-spectacular. He really didn't give any signs of this before this season, but he'd lost a lot of time to injury. In the end, he's a very highly regarded prospect who was injured and developing for his first two seasons, but who has clearly finally put everything together. I think he's totally legit, and would be looking to buy. The only red flag is the possible imminent beginning of the Brady Quinn era in Cleveland.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 14 2007, 12:56 AM)
I think Mark Clayton is a pretty good buy right now. I can't really advocate moving him up your list because most of the guys who are ranked in front of him have earned their rankings. But I still feel that Clayton is a talented receiver who will eventually carve out a role as a productive starting WR in the NFL. I see him eventually becoming a solid WR2/WR3 in the vein of Laveranues Coles and Derrick Mason. The guy has had a horrible year, but he's a ball player.
I agree with this. He went into the season with an injured ankle, but he kept playing, and you never really heard much about the injury....but I have to think it was hindering him for much of the 1st half of the season.
He could be an especially good buy if the Ravens really are turning the page on Steve McNair for good. Additionally, I think there's a good chance that Billick gets shown the door after the season, and the Ravens begin a rebuilding project this offseason. It will be interesting to see if the next coaching staff puts more effort & innovation into the offensive side of the ball.
**Just because Billick isn't right for a Ravens' rebuilding project, doesn't mean he wouldn't be an upgrade on plenty of other coaches around the NFL....even if he is Tony LaRussa's doppelganger.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 14 2007, 12:58 AM)
QUOTE (thehornet @ Nov 13 2007, 01:56 PM)
F&L,
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him ), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc?
I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him
), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc? I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Selvin was never healthy and on the field at Texas. There were also some knocks on his running skills coming out, but nothing that wasn't coachable.
I'm glad SSOG fielded this one because I just don't watch much college football.
From what I've read about Selvin Young, he started out as Cedric Benson's back-up and did some kick returning. Then he battled injuries the rest of his time at Texas. I faintly remember reading somewhere that Kiper was fairly high on him pre-draft.
I think unearthing the hidden gems that have a chance for RB stardom is a never ending process for us dynasty leaguers. When I'm trying to evaluate bench players or guys who just haven't gotten their chance yet, the first thing I look for is a nice shiny endorsement from the head coach (though praise from veteran players works well here too). My ears really perked up when Young started getting the Shanny endorsement before the season even started....and he really had my attention when he called him "definitely a starter in this league" after just a couple of NFL games. A tenured head coaches' endorsement is pure gold.
The 2nd thing I look for is opportunity. How long will the current starter be around? What is his contract status? Is there a chance the team will cut ties with the starter sometime soon? I went from being mildly intrigued by Young to heavily invested in him once Henry's pending drug suspension started surfacing.
The last thing I do is look at physical/mental issues. Is he overweight? Is he immature? Does he have a high knucklehead factor? Does he have issues with conditioning? Does he have a history of lingering injuries? Does he have a history of major injuries? Young does have an injury history in college and a bit of reputation for being fragile. We'll have to see how that plays out, but he has just about everything else going for him right now. I consider him the ideal 3rd RB for my dynasty roster.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:48 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 14 2007, 12:58 AM)
QUOTE (thehornet @ Nov 13 2007, 01:56 PM)
F&L,
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him ), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc?
I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him
), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc? I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Selvin was never healthy and on the field at Texas. There were also some knocks on his running skills coming out, but nothing that wasn't coachable.
I'm glad SSOG fielded this one because I just don't watch much college football.
From what I've read about Selvin Young, he started out as Cedric Benson's back-up and did some kick returning. Then he battled injuries the rest of his time at Texas. I faintly remember reading somewhere that Kiper was fairly high on him pre-draft.
I think unearthing the hidden gems that have a chance for RB stardom is a never ending process for us dynasty leaguers. When I'm trying to evaluate bench players or guys who just haven't gotten their chance yet, the first thing I look for is a nice shiny endorsement from the head coach (though praise from veteran players works well here too). My ears really perked up when Young started getting the Shanny endorsement before the season even started....and he really had my attention when he called him "definitely a starter in this league" after just a couple of NFL games. A tenured head coaches' endorsement is pure gold.
The 2nd thing I look for is opportunity. How long will the current starter be around? What is his contract status? Is there a chance the team will cut ties with the starter sometime soon? I went from being mildly intrigued by Young to heavily invested in him once Henry's pending drug suspension started surfacing.
The last thing I do is look at physical/mental issues. Is he overweight? Is he immature? Does he have a high knucklehead factor? Does he have issues with conditioning? Does he have a history of lingering injuries? Does he have a history of major injuries? Young does have an injury history in college and a bit of reputation for being fragile. We'll have to see how that plays out, but he has just about everything else going for him right now. I consider him the ideal 3rd RB for my dynasty roster.
With this in mind, who are some lesser-known RBs who might be worth rostering this off-season, with a chance to increase their value by Opening Day 2008?
QUOTE (Onions @ Nov 14 2007, 01:53 AM)
With this in mind, who are some lesser-known RBs who might be worth rostering this off-season, with a chance to increase their value by Opening Day 2008?
Hmmm...prospecting season usually occurs during camp and pre-season, so you might not be able to get a feel for the next gem until the summer. Many of the guys who fall under this category have already been found out this year. i.e. Selvin Young, Ryan Grant, DeShawn Wynn, Derrick Ward, etc.
But off the top of my head, guys who could conceivably be on waiver wires and fit the criteria above:
J.J. Arrington -- Whisenhunt praised him this pre-season, and Edge is starting to lose some work.
Gary Russell -- Bruising back who could get a shot if FWP gets injured.
Pierre Thomas -- Beat out Antonio Pittman, could carve out a role alongside Bush.
Mewelde Moore -- Hasn't gotten the praise, but he has produced in the past.
Musa Smith -- Longshot, but it was just over a year ago that Billick called him a "RB of the Future."
Michael Robinson -- Another longshot, but he got a lot of buzz early last season.
QUOTE (Onions @ Nov 14 2007, 01:53 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2007, 10:48 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 14 2007, 12:58 AM)
QUOTE (thehornet @ Nov 13 2007, 01:56 PM)
F&L,
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him ), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc?
I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him
), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc? I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?
Thanks for your hard work!
Selvin was never healthy and on the field at Texas. There were also some knocks on his running skills coming out, but nothing that wasn't coachable.
I'm glad SSOG fielded this one because I just don't watch much college football.
From what I've read about Selvin Young, he started out as Cedric Benson's back-up and did some kick returning. Then he battled injuries the rest of his time at Texas. I faintly remember reading somewhere that Kiper was fairly high on him pre-draft.
I think unearthing the hidden gems that have a chance for RB stardom is a never ending process for us dynasty leaguers. When I'm trying to evaluate bench players or guys who just haven't gotten their chance yet, the first thing I look for is a nice shiny endorsement from the head coach (though praise from veteran players works well here too). My ears really perked up when Young started getting the Shanny endorsement before the season even started....and he really had my attention when he called him "definitely a starter in this league" after just a couple of NFL games. A tenured head coaches' endorsement is pure gold.
The 2nd thing I look for is opportunity. How long will the current starter be around? What is his contract status? Is there a chance the team will cut ties with the starter sometime soon? I went from being mildly intrigued by Young to heavily invested in him once Henry's pending drug suspension started surfacing.
The last thing I do is look at physical/mental issues. Is he overweight? Is he immature? Does he have a high knucklehead factor? Does he have issues with conditioning? Does he have a history of lingering injuries? Does he have a history of major injuries? Young does have an injury history in college and a bit of reputation for being fragile. We'll have to see how that plays out, but he has just about everything else going for him right now. I consider him the ideal 3rd RB for my dynasty roster.
With this in mind, who are some lesser-known RBs who might be worth rostering this off-season, with a chance to increase their value by Opening Day 2008?
A few guys that I'd look at:
Kenny Irons - If Irons had been healthy this season he'd already be making major waves. He's not an elite back, but he's good enough to play in the NFL. I compare his talent level to Julius Jones. If he gets healthy then he'll almost certainly increase in value at some point in the next few years.
Chris Perry - I know I know I know. He can't stay healthy. But my policy on first round RBs is don't write them off until they're out of the league. If this guy can find a way to get to 100% then he could be a colossal steal for you in the long run.
Musa Smith - Third round pick a few years back. He's been stuck on the bench for most of his career, but he's one of those guys who could surprise ala Ladell Betts when he gets his chance. He's a free agent after this season.
Mewelde Moore - I posted about him in another thread tonight. He's 5'10" 210 with a decent pedigree and a solid track record of production at the NFL level. He has a versatile skill set and could conceivably be a major contributor for someone in 2008. He's a free agent after this season.
Mewelde Moore has a chance to flash over the next few weeks. He is more talented than many team's starters but his baggage has cost him a lot.
Chris Perry will get his shot soon too as I don't see a huge roadblock at this point. Watson is just another guy kind partnered with a plodder on his way down just like Maurice Morris. Musa may get a shot one of these days but it will take an injury. I could see Perry and Irons next season as right now Rudi is not far behind Alexander IMO.
Greg Jones is another that has a shot. He's starting to get more involved and I suspect eventually will displace Fred Taylor as MJD will likely never get to fully carry the load.
Chris Perry will get his shot soon too as I don't see a huge roadblock at this point. Watson is just another guy kind partnered with a plodder on his way down just like Maurice Morris. Musa may get a shot one of these days but it will take an injury. I could see Perry and Irons next season as right now Rudi is not far behind Alexander IMO.
Greg Jones is another that has a shot. He's starting to get more involved and I suspect eventually will displace Fred Taylor as MJD will likely never get to fully carry the load.
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Nov 14 2007, 09:31 PM)
Mewelde Moore has a chance to flash over the next few weeks. He is more talented than many team's starters but his baggage has cost him a lot.
What's his baggage? I've heard that he and Losman didn't get along at Tulane, and I've heard that he wasn't the best at picking up blitzes. But those are the only real issues I remember hearing about. Is he a headcase?
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Nov 14 2007, 09:31 PM)
Chris Perry will get his shot soon too as I don't see a huge roadblock at this point. Watson is just another guy kind partnered with a plodder on his way down just like Maurice Morris. Musa may get a shot one of these days but it will take an injury. I could see Perry and Irons next season as right now Rudi is not far behind Alexander IMO.
I think Perry may get released before he gets a shot. I just don't believe he has it anymore. The injuries have robbed him of a lot of his talent, and the coaches have very little faith in him. But you're right that the Bengals RB race could be wide open at some point in 2008.
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Nov 14 2007, 09:31 PM)
Greg Jones is another that has a shot. He's starting to get more involved and I suspect eventually will displace Fred Taylor as MJD will likely never get to fully carry the load.
Greg Jones is a plodder. He didn't come into the league all that explosive in the first place, and he's even less so now. His career YPC is a woeful 3.3. He's like a mixture of washed up Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Shaun Alexander in a fullback's body. Thud.
F&L
how many years does TO have left?
Better Question. How many years will he be producing at the Elite level?
how many years does TO have left?
Better Question. How many years will he be producing at the Elite level?
QUOTE (new-guru @ Nov 15 2007, 02:45 PM)
F&L
how many years does TO have left?
Better Question. How many years will he be producing at the Elite level?
how many years does TO have left?
Better Question. How many years will he be producing at the Elite level?
yea I would like to know some thoughts on him also, maybe tory holt too, they are a couple guys I am thinking about moving marshall for in the next couple weeks, maybe see if holt would move for a first rounder. Not sure what people think of these guys dynasty wise.Thinking my team has a pretty good shot the next couple years.
Love the thread and rankings F&L
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