QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 11 2007, 12:02 AM) 
I take back everything I ever said about Alex Smith. He's 
status.
I was right about Santonio Holmes though.
status.I was right about Santonio Holmes though.
Count me suckered in too. His play makes Baby Jesus cry.
QUOTE (valhallan @ Sep 5 2007, 09:36 PM)
I've been wondering for a while now if you're ever going to move Tony Scheffler out of your 2nd tier. Has none of the Daniel Graham talk tempered your expectations?
:tap:
DNP in week 1.
Move to an island, and you lose internet access. My girlfriend and I moved at the end of August, and we still can't get the phone company out here to set up a phone line. I know it seems like I've simply walked away from this thread once September started, but it's more a problem of internet availability. I've had to sit outside the library in my car for internet access the past few weeks, so spending the time necessary to keep up isn't much of an option.
Anyway, I updated all of the rankings on page one today. I owe some responses on Tony Romo, Tony Scheffler, etc., but full responses may not be forthcoming until internet access hits my house (scheduled, once again, for this coming Tuesday). The cliff's notes version is as follows:
I did move Romo up a tier in the rankings. Ironically, in a redraft league I have both Kitna & Romo as my QBs. I drafted Kitna to be my starter in Round 7 and found Romo still sitting there a few rounds later, so I swiped him up. I fully expect Kitna to have the better season, but I did start Romo in Week 1 since the Giants were a sweet match-up. A successful week 1 performance didn't surprise me, but the degree of success did. Sure, the Giants defense is woeful, but 300+ passing yards, 4 passing TDs, and a rushing TD to boot is a pretty convincing performance. At the risk of overreacting to one game, I think this performance raises Romo to starter level in my eyes for the rest of the season. Is he a fantasy franchise QB? I'm not yet a believer, but a couple more big games and I will be.
I don't have an answer for Scheffler because I have no idea what's going on with his situation. I originally ranked him fairly high coming off last season's impressive 2nd half run and before his off-season injury. Even after his injury, he was expected to be healthy enough for pre-season games and certainly healthy going into the season...but is he? I just haven't been able to find any credible Scheffler information coming out of Denver. I moved him down a tier, but until I get a better feel for what's going on with his situation, I'm not about to completely cut bait on a promising young talent who produced when Cutler was inserted late last season. He still has value in dynasty leagues, but it's tough to gauge how much because of a lack of updates on his progress and his role.
Oh, and how about that Adrian Peterson performance?
There's plenty more where that came from...
Anyway, I updated all of the rankings on page one today. I owe some responses on Tony Romo, Tony Scheffler, etc., but full responses may not be forthcoming until internet access hits my house (scheduled, once again, for this coming Tuesday). The cliff's notes version is as follows:
I did move Romo up a tier in the rankings. Ironically, in a redraft league I have both Kitna & Romo as my QBs. I drafted Kitna to be my starter in Round 7 and found Romo still sitting there a few rounds later, so I swiped him up. I fully expect Kitna to have the better season, but I did start Romo in Week 1 since the Giants were a sweet match-up. A successful week 1 performance didn't surprise me, but the degree of success did. Sure, the Giants defense is woeful, but 300+ passing yards, 4 passing TDs, and a rushing TD to boot is a pretty convincing performance. At the risk of overreacting to one game, I think this performance raises Romo to starter level in my eyes for the rest of the season. Is he a fantasy franchise QB? I'm not yet a believer, but a couple more big games and I will be.
I don't have an answer for Scheffler because I have no idea what's going on with his situation. I originally ranked him fairly high coming off last season's impressive 2nd half run and before his off-season injury. Even after his injury, he was expected to be healthy enough for pre-season games and certainly healthy going into the season...but is he? I just haven't been able to find any credible Scheffler information coming out of Denver. I moved him down a tier, but until I get a better feel for what's going on with his situation, I'm not about to completely cut bait on a promising young talent who produced when Cutler was inserted late last season. He still has value in dynasty leagues, but it's tough to gauge how much because of a lack of updates on his progress and his role.
Oh, and how about that Adrian Peterson performance?
There's plenty more where that came from... Still no home internet access (don't ever do business with Bell South), but I did update QB, RB, WR and part of the TEs today. Hopefully, I'll get a chance to finish up tomorrow.
I changed some tiers around fairly significantly on QB, RB & WR.
I changed some tiers around fairly significantly on QB, RB & WR.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 18 2007, 03:52 PM)
Still no home internet access (don't ever do business with Bell South), but I did update QB, RB, WR and part of the TEs today. Hopefully, I'll get a chance to finish up tomorrow.
I changed some tiers around fairly significantly on QB, RB & WR.
I changed some tiers around fairly significantly on QB, RB & WR.
I love your ranking system. Definitely one of my favorite topics in the shark pool.
Something to possibly add to your ranking is when you move a player up/down and change the number beside them you should note the numerical change in parentheses so we get an idea of how much they moved. Just a suggestion. Keep up the good work!
QUOTE (jburns @ Sep 6 2007, 02:17 AM)
didn't get a chance to go over the whole thread but one thing that jumped out at me during the initial rankings is brian westbrooks age.
28? he's older than rudi, clinton portis, etc...
wow i thought he was much younger.
28? he's older than rudi, clinton portis, etc...
wow i thought he was much younger.
And the same age as Jamal Lewis
I have Westbrook, so I'm a very interested party in how his age, usage, and injury history will factor into future production. Of course, there was also this mildly upsetting nugget from the offseason as well. I think Tiki Barber is a good comp for Westbrook, but Westbrook is in no danger of leaving due to other opportunities (i.e. broadcasting) or philosophical disputes with his head coach. He is, however, far more of an injury concern than Barber ever was.
If you're a Westbrook owner, the great thing about the Barber comparison is that Barber is one of the very few NFL RBs whose best seasons came at age 27 and older. Neither Tiki nor Westbrook were used heavily before age 25, and unlike the RBs mentioned above (Rudi, Portis + Jamal Lewis), most of the touches weren't of the hard-hitting, tough-yardage-in-the-trenches variety which end up being the RB career killers. If I had to guess, Westbrook's rushing production won't match up to the surprising late-career rushing totals of Tiki. On the other hand, I do think he'll stay slightly more involved in the passing game than Barber was, and he's more of threat to hit a homerun. Tiki was an extremely durable back, so in order for this late-career comparison to work Westbrook must defy the odds and stay healthy.
So where does that leave Westbrook owners on value and planning for the future? I think he's too consistently productive to trade him right now unless you can get a weekly starter with both production and potential. Even if the Philly offense struggles somewhat, Westbrook is too heavily involved not to put up points on a weekly basis...as long as he's healthy. I guess it comes down to your feelings on just how much of an injury risk he is going forward and what you can expect the return to be in a trade.
I would trade him straight up for any of the guys listed above him on the page one rankings. But I wouldn't trade him for anybody below, even with the injury risk. It's hard to deal away consistent production when you're competitive. If I thought I could get the Adrian Peterson owner to bite, I'd package Westbrook with drafts pick(s) and another player to try to entice him. I've never minded overpaying to get the right player in a trade.
QUOTE (Homer @ Sep 6 2007, 01:18 AM)
Re: talent vs. situation, your rankings usually agree with that principle -- your umpteenth apology for Leftwich is shining example #1. But it seems in your QB rankings you are a slave to draft status instead of performance. I'm just thinking off the top of my head here, but can you name recent examples of the "QB of the future" sucking for several years and then suddenly turning it on and becoming a STUD? Seems to me that the truly excellent QB's have all been pretty damned good from at least their second season on.
Good discussion, Homer. Sorry I've been a bit lax on my response time lately.
You make a good point here, but I'm trying to figure out which QB you're referring to with that last sentence. Is it Leftwich or Alex Smith or both?
If it's Leftwich, the question doesn't really work because you're asking for a QB of the future who has "sucked" for several years before suddenly turning it on to reach stud status. You would have to do some serious distortion of Leftwich's first four seasons to include them under the "suck" category. Even revisionist history fresh off his surprise roster-axing by a cheap franchise with a dolt of a head coach won't allow you to stretch his NFL production to fit "sucking." Leftwich's release by Jacksonville was mostly about money, partially about Del Rio, and very little to do with performance.
Alex Smith, on the other hand, sucked as hard as anyone has ever sucked in his rookie season. Last year was a different story. Though it was an extremely uneven season, he showed a ton of improvement at a very young age. I know your point is that for "QB of the Future" types improvement doesn't matter as much as production.
So who recently has struggled mightily, had an uneven 2nd season, and then reached STUD status? That's a very good question with major dynasty implications. If the answer is that there is no historical comp, then there's no use ever holding on to a struggling QB of the Future no matter what promise you think he has. If there are historical comps, then there is hope for the Alex Smith's of the fantasy football world.
Burning Sensation already responded with the best recent example: Drew Brees. He struggled to the point that SD had to use a top 5 overall pick on Philip Rivers as the new QB of the Future. Only a year later Brees was a stud.
Oz responded with some examples from the 1980s & 1990s: Steve Young, Phil Simms, and Kerry Collins. Depending on your definition of "recent", Young is another perfect example. He sucked something fierce in Tampa before turning into a stud in SF. Phil Simms did most of his damage 20 years ago, but he is a good comp for Leftwich. Kerry Collins never really reached "stud" status, but he had a nice career after sucking early. As long as we're going back 20 years, nobody mentioned John Elway, but his first couple of seasons were very similar to Alex Smith's.
Other examples from the 1990s: Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde, Jake Plummer, and Jeff George. Much like Alex Smith, Aikman sucked mightily his rookie season on an awful football team. His second season was worse than Alex Smith's in many ways. Then he turned into a HOF franchise QB. Testaverde sucked for a crappy team for years before turning it around. He was never really a "franchise" type QB, but he had some STUD seasons later on. Plummer and George are similar.
I think your point is a good one: for young, promising QBs production matters more than promise. But I also don't believe it's always that easy. A few weeks after our original discussion, I would definitely take Romo over Alex Smith simply because their 2007 production looks to be night and day. But if you're looking at historical comps, truly great QBs Steve Young, Troy Aikman, John Elway, and even Drew Brees still provide plenty of hope for Alex Smith. Who is a historical comp for Tony Romo? What will the post-2007 production be like for Romo and Smith? How much do surrounding talent and coaching matter? How ephemeral is that surrounding talent and coaching?
Edit to add: In your original post on this topic, you included Jay Cutler along with Alex Smith as a QB who hadn't produced and shouldn't be ranked with Romo. Has Cutler's start to the season along with his situation in Denver changed your mind at all? Where does he fit in with QBs who have shown more promise than production. In dynasty leagues, how do you weigh Cutler's talent edge against Romo's production edge?
**Here's an important factor that hasn't been addressed yet. I have Tom Brady as my QB in both dynasty leagues. How much does that color how I value other QBs versus how you or anybody else may value QBs? As much as I may try to leave my roster at the doorstep when I'm doing these rankings, I'm learning that the answer is: "significantly." I have the luxury of not worrying about startability with my 2nd QB. Many dynasty owners have a more tenuous situation at QB and must of necessity go with production over talent. With Tom Brady already on board, talent may often trump production for non top tier dynasty QBs. Not only that, but I would argue that I owe it to myself to go with Cutler over Romo in my situation. The luxury that a premier QB affords isn't just in promise vs. production, it's also in present vs. future value. If Romo's best seasons are going to coincide with Brady's, then Cutler is a better fit for me. His best seasons are likely several seasons down the road. I can set myself up for the present and the future at the same time, which is the holy grail at every position in dynasty leagues.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 22 2007, 01:23 PM)
**Here's an important factor that hasn't been addressed yet. I have Tom Brady as my QB in both dynasty leagues. How much does that color how I value other QBs versus how you or anybody else may value QBs? As much as I may try to leave my roster at the doorstep when I'm doing these rankings, I'm learning that the answer is: "significantly." I have the luxury of not worrying about startability with my 2nd QB. Many dynasty owners have a more tenuous situation at QB and must of necessity go with production over talent. With Tom Brady already on board, talent may often trump production for non top tier dynasty QBs. Not only that, but I would argue that I owe it to myself to go with Cutler over Romo in my situation. The luxury that a premier QB affords isn't just in promise vs. production, it's also in present vs. future value. If Romo's best seasons are going to coincide with Brady's, then Cutler is a better fit for me. His best seasons are likely several seasons down the road. I can set myself up for the present and the future at the same time, which is the holy grail at every position in dynasty leagues.
This is a very important point when thinking dynasty, and I think holds true at QB & TE the most. I guess you can include PK - if you get an Elam. When you get a stud at a position where you start one, and your one is an uber-stud: PManning, and now Palmer/Brady, formerly Favre or Gates now, and formerly Gonzo, you can slough immediate prodction from backups. If you have a team with that kind of player, you start looking for high-ceiling backups who can be bye week filler. You have the luxury of basically ignoring the roster spot short-term.
It's probably true enough at WR if you can get couple studs who fit.
A little odd how Portis' value isn't rising now that he's shown he's fully healthy. Is there still fear of a RBBC with Betts?
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Sep 22 2007, 02:01 PM)
A little odd how Portis' value isn't rising now that he's shown he's fully healthy. Is there still fear of a RBBC with Betts?
I did move him up, but I didn't indicate that his value was rising simply because of what you mentioned: the presence of Betts. Yes, I still believe Betts is going to dent Portis' dynasty value.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 22 2007, 08:17 PM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Sep 22 2007, 02:01 PM)
A little odd how Portis' value isn't rising now that he's shown he's fully healthy. Is there still fear of a RBBC with Betts?
I did move him up, but I didn't indicate that his value was rising simply because of what you mentioned: the presence of Betts. Yes, I still believe Betts is going to dent Portis' dynasty value.
Long term or just this season?
Keep up the good work, btw.
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Sep 22 2007, 02:20 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 22 2007, 08:17 PM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Sep 22 2007, 02:01 PM)
A little odd how Portis' value isn't rising now that he's shown he's fully healthy. Is there still fear of a RBBC with Betts?
I did move him up, but I didn't indicate that his value was rising simply because of what you mentioned: the presence of Betts. Yes, I still believe Betts is going to dent Portis' dynasty value.
Long term or just this season?
Keep up the good work, btw.
Thanks, War Ensemble.
I'd say both. Betts is signed there for a few years, and I think he's going to be a nagging presence for Portis owners both this season and in the future. That doesn't mean that a healthy Portis won't produce. But I think it does mean you're getting 75-90 yards, a shot at a TD, and very little receiving from him as opposed to 100+ yards, a better shot at a TD, and a regular role in the passing game. What's that worth to you? If that's what I had in a dynasty RB, I'd be looking to trade him in after a big week for a Batman without a Robin.
In-game notes from Sunday:
Kevin Curtis' value is about to go through the roof. Holy freakish Lee Evans-like 1st half, Batman! Curtis has 11 for 221 with 3 TDs. McNabb is looking for him constantly including another 3rd Quarter red zone target.
Cam Cameron is either a dolt, a dullard, or a simpleton. See what happens when you quit playing childish mind games and just give Ronnie Brown the damn ball? 3rd Quarter update: even with the Jets methodically taking the Dolphins' defense apart 5 yards at a time, Ronnie Brown is up to 90 yards on the ground and 69 receiving. Use him! There we go: another Ronnie Brown TD and he's at 112 rushing, 99 receiving and 3 TDs. Good thing they were messing around with Jesse Chatman the first two games. Attaboy Cam, you clown
.
How serious is Losman's injury? Edwards came in and immediately played better on the first series than Losman has played in any series this season. Update: Edwards not so impressive since that 1st drive, and Lee Evans still without a reception as of early 3rd Quarter. Update: Lee Evans with a 7-yard reception - break out the champaign! It's official, Lee Evans makes the baby Jesus cry
.
Ouch! Kurt Warner is in for the Cardinals, and it's not because of a Leinart injury. It's simply a "change of pace." That doesn't bode well for Leinart owners. 3rd Quarter update: Leinart is back in, and he hates Larry Fitzgerald. Uh-Oh, Kurt Warner is BACK in the game, and he hates Larry Fitzgerald just as much as Leinart. But they both
Boldin. What happens if Kurt Warner leads a comeback here 
. Kurt Warner = hot waiver wire pick of Week 4 
.
Pittsburgh passing game looks poor today. A lot of pressure on Roethlisberger, and Patrick Willis of the Niners is very impressive. As I say that, Roethlisberger finds Tuman in the end zone. Both teams' starting tight end heavily involved today, proving once again that whining works. Willie Parker with several impressive bursts. Hines Ward's QB is going to get him killed. Bizarre play: Alex Smith finds a wide open Vernon Davis streaking through the middle of the field in the red zone. Davis is hit and flipped landing on his head when his elbow pops the ball up in the air and into the hands of the Steeler DB without the ball ever touching the ground. Was he officially down first if he landed on his head? Did he have possession? Has to be Niners ball I would think...
Without a reliable RB, Green Bay has just decided to pass the ball every down. James Jones still looks like the 2nd or 3rd best rookie WR...depending on whether the Chiefs can find a QB to get the ball to D-Bo. No sign of DeShawn Wynn in the running game. Brett Favre has weapons in the passing game as he hits Greg Jennings to take the 4th quarter lead. Ted Thompson with sweet redemption.
Philip Rivers is 9 for 9 for 92 yards and a beautiful touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson. Update: Phil Rivers at 20/23 for 213 and 3 TDs. If only he could play well consistently. I don't ever want to play against Antonio Gates. He scares me.
The Chiefs offense is stupid. Seriously, you don't want any Chiefs on your team for at least two years. As I say that the Chiefs finally hit the red zone. No chance they punch one in here, right? 4th Quarter: D-Bo with a TD and an official breakout game!
Steve McNair & Derrick Mason look downright great today. I thought it was the Eagles with turn-back-the-clock day. 4th Quarter: McNair tweaks his groin, Boller in the game and leading the Ravens down the field for a shot at the game winning FG.
Uh-Oh, Calvin Johnson carted off with a back injury
. Roy Williams is a stud after the catch - 91 yards to the house. Kitna up to 314 with 2 TDs before half-time. McNabb at 20/22 for 376 and 4 TDs. I think he'll be alright. Westbrook with 11 for 102 with 2 TDs rushing and 4 for 102 with a TD receiving. Philly/Detroit Fantasy Bonanza! 4th Quarter: Kitna over 400, Roy Williams over 200. Reggie Brown, though = 
As if the Ravens needed more firepower on defense/special teams, the rookie Figurs takes a punt return all the way back.
Adrian Peterson up to 100 total yards to go along with a TD before half-time. Good to see him stay consistently involved as a receiving threat. Early 3rd Quarter update: over 140 total yards and looking damn good.
The Rams need to keep feeding Steven Jackson because nothing good is happening when Bulger steps back to pass...another crippling interception. One of the most perplexing QB questions in the NFL: why is Marc Bulger so poor in the red zone? S-Jax tearing off some chunks of yardage and over 100 rushing on the day.
Joseph Addai with another TD. Is there a player in dynasty leagues who derives as much value simply through his surrounding talent?
Tom Brady with his alloted 3rd TD of the game - that's nice. Sammy Morris: your 2007 goal-line vulture. Meet the new Dillon, same as the old Dillon. Brady finds Moss for a long TD again. Randy Moss = still the most talented WR in the game? It's either him or Steve Smith methinks.
If we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times: you cannot run on the Indianapolis Colts. Don't even try it.
Umm...Ernest Graham with his 2nd TD of the half. Caddy owners doing what Caddy owners do...
Injury updates: Isaac Bruce out of the game, Ahman Green out of the game. Old People, sheesh
. Jacoby Jones injured on a punt return and taken for X-rays.
Vernon Davis right knee sprain. Brian Westbrook getting X-rays on his ribs.
Thread hits page 2, so I'm stopping for the 4:00 games...
Kevin Curtis' value is about to go through the roof. Holy freakish Lee Evans-like 1st half, Batman! Curtis has 11 for 221 with 3 TDs. McNabb is looking for him constantly including another 3rd Quarter red zone target.
Cam Cameron is either a dolt, a dullard, or a simpleton. See what happens when you quit playing childish mind games and just give Ronnie Brown the damn ball? 3rd Quarter update: even with the Jets methodically taking the Dolphins' defense apart 5 yards at a time, Ronnie Brown is up to 90 yards on the ground and 69 receiving. Use him! There we go: another Ronnie Brown TD and he's at 112 rushing, 99 receiving and 3 TDs. Good thing they were messing around with Jesse Chatman the first two games. Attaboy Cam, you clown
.How serious is Losman's injury? Edwards came in and immediately played better on the first series than Losman has played in any series this season. Update: Edwards not so impressive since that 1st drive, and Lee Evans still without a reception as of early 3rd Quarter. Update: Lee Evans with a 7-yard reception - break out the champaign! It's official, Lee Evans makes the baby Jesus cry
.Ouch! Kurt Warner is in for the Cardinals, and it's not because of a Leinart injury. It's simply a "change of pace." That doesn't bode well for Leinart owners. 3rd Quarter update: Leinart is back in, and he hates Larry Fitzgerald. Uh-Oh, Kurt Warner is BACK in the game, and he hates Larry Fitzgerald just as much as Leinart. But they both
Boldin. What happens if Kurt Warner leads a comeback here . Kurt Warner = hot waiver wire pick of Week 4 .Pittsburgh passing game looks poor today. A lot of pressure on Roethlisberger, and Patrick Willis of the Niners is very impressive. As I say that, Roethlisberger finds Tuman in the end zone. Both teams' starting tight end heavily involved today, proving once again that whining works. Willie Parker with several impressive bursts. Hines Ward's QB is going to get him killed. Bizarre play: Alex Smith finds a wide open Vernon Davis streaking through the middle of the field in the red zone. Davis is hit and flipped landing on his head when his elbow pops the ball up in the air and into the hands of the Steeler DB without the ball ever touching the ground. Was he officially down first if he landed on his head? Did he have possession? Has to be Niners ball I would think...
Without a reliable RB, Green Bay has just decided to pass the ball every down. James Jones still looks like the 2nd or 3rd best rookie WR...depending on whether the Chiefs can find a QB to get the ball to D-Bo. No sign of DeShawn Wynn in the running game. Brett Favre has weapons in the passing game as he hits Greg Jennings to take the 4th quarter lead. Ted Thompson with sweet redemption.
Philip Rivers is 9 for 9 for 92 yards and a beautiful touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson. Update: Phil Rivers at 20/23 for 213 and 3 TDs. If only he could play well consistently. I don't ever want to play against Antonio Gates. He scares me.
The Chiefs offense is stupid. Seriously, you don't want any Chiefs on your team for at least two years. As I say that the Chiefs finally hit the red zone. No chance they punch one in here, right? 4th Quarter: D-Bo with a TD and an official breakout game!
Steve McNair & Derrick Mason look downright great today. I thought it was the Eagles with turn-back-the-clock day. 4th Quarter: McNair tweaks his groin, Boller in the game and leading the Ravens down the field for a shot at the game winning FG.
Uh-Oh, Calvin Johnson carted off with a back injury
. Roy Williams is a stud after the catch - 91 yards to the house. Kitna up to 314 with 2 TDs before half-time. McNabb at 20/22 for 376 and 4 TDs. I think he'll be alright. Westbrook with 11 for 102 with 2 TDs rushing and 4 for 102 with a TD receiving. Philly/Detroit Fantasy Bonanza! 4th Quarter: Kitna over 400, Roy Williams over 200. Reggie Brown, though = As if the Ravens needed more firepower on defense/special teams, the rookie Figurs takes a punt return all the way back.
Adrian Peterson up to 100 total yards to go along with a TD before half-time. Good to see him stay consistently involved as a receiving threat. Early 3rd Quarter update: over 140 total yards and looking damn good.
The Rams need to keep feeding Steven Jackson because nothing good is happening when Bulger steps back to pass...another crippling interception. One of the most perplexing QB questions in the NFL: why is Marc Bulger so poor in the red zone? S-Jax tearing off some chunks of yardage and over 100 rushing on the day.
Joseph Addai with another TD. Is there a player in dynasty leagues who derives as much value simply through his surrounding talent?
Tom Brady with his alloted 3rd TD of the game - that's nice. Sammy Morris: your 2007 goal-line vulture. Meet the new Dillon, same as the old Dillon. Brady finds Moss for a long TD again. Randy Moss = still the most talented WR in the game? It's either him or Steve Smith methinks.
If we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times: you cannot run on the Indianapolis Colts. Don't even try it.
Umm...Ernest Graham with his 2nd TD of the half. Caddy owners doing what Caddy owners do...
Injury updates: Isaac Bruce out of the game, Ahman Green out of the game. Old People, sheesh
. Jacoby Jones injured on a punt return and taken for X-rays. Vernon Davis right knee sprain. Brian Westbrook getting X-rays on his ribs.
Thread hits page 2, so I'm stopping for the 4:00 games...
F&L - First of all, absolutely love the post! One of my favorites that I actually search to find if it drops of the front page. A few questions though:
1) Why no love for Marion Barber? Maybe it's not his overall ranking that I struggle with (your #22 running back), but the paltry "39" for a dynasty value. Thomas Jones with a 40? Caddy with a 50? In line with DJax (40), Cotchery (40) and Curry (38)? I don't see how Barber isn't in that next tier of RB's yet with a value in line.
2) Is there a reason you have so many WR values so high (90's), yet only 4 RB's in the 90's with the 5th dropping off to a value of 80? My only thought is that it has something to do with WR's having a much longer shelf life in a dynasty than the stud RB's? But aren't running backs that much more important due to their overall consistency? Reggie Bush as your #5 RB with an 80, yet 14 WR's with a ranking higher than that. Can you elaborate at all on your value system in general?
3) Lee Evans. No need to discuss what a disappointment he's been. I feel very confident saying it's not his talent or work ethic holding him back. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel though? Don't the Bills have to open that offense up a little bit, as they did at the end of last season?
Thanks!
1) Why no love for Marion Barber? Maybe it's not his overall ranking that I struggle with (your #22 running back), but the paltry "39" for a dynasty value. Thomas Jones with a 40? Caddy with a 50? In line with DJax (40), Cotchery (40) and Curry (38)? I don't see how Barber isn't in that next tier of RB's yet with a value in line.
2) Is there a reason you have so many WR values so high (90's), yet only 4 RB's in the 90's with the 5th dropping off to a value of 80? My only thought is that it has something to do with WR's having a much longer shelf life in a dynasty than the stud RB's? But aren't running backs that much more important due to their overall consistency? Reggie Bush as your #5 RB with an 80, yet 14 WR's with a ranking higher than that. Can you elaborate at all on your value system in general?
3) Lee Evans. No need to discuss what a disappointment he's been. I feel very confident saying it's not his talent or work ethic holding him back. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel though? Don't the Bills have to open that offense up a little bit, as they did at the end of last season?
Thanks!
F&L, when talking about QB's that were high draft picks that ended up as horrible busts, the list is literally endless, but the most prominent recent examples of people holding out on the hype indefinitely with NO real reason other than a severely HO HUM 2nd or 3rd year are (indeed) Alex Smith and David Carr (and Joey Harrington slightly before that). Losman also somehow holds out hope for some dynasty owners I know.
Re: Cutler, he has had decent fantasy #'s due to gunslinging bombs connecting every so often, but the guy is currently a pretty damned bad real-life NFL QB IMO due to OMG type mistakes. If I were to compare him to anybody it would be (conincidentally) Jake Plummer and Rex Grossman. Another interesting question about QB's development is do THOSE types ever turn into dependable studs?
Re: Romo, last night's game was a perfect showcase for what he brings to the table. As the announcers beat to death, his ability to avoid the rush and make aweseomly accurate throws on the move is jawdropping. Re: his contract status, personally I'd think the short-term franchise tag option is SMART, but then again, I don't run an NFL team. Were he ever to change teams, this is going to sound geeky, but I'd bet he's more capable of QB'ing a team with an iffy O line that any other QB in the NFL. Can you imagine Manning or Brady having to roll out and throw like that? They would never be able to do those things that Romo makes look easy.
Re: Romo v. Kitna, Kitna concussed already in week 2, sacked 8 times in a game where he had the game of his LIFE yesterday. Again, reference the injuries to Martz's QB's, and then think of Kitna's age. Like I said in an earlier post, odds are SKY HIGH that Kitna's nowhere near a starting QB job in 2009.
I liked your point about bias re: 'your' actual QB. Mine actually is Peyton Manning (have had him since my first day playing fantasy football. Nice to get lucky from the get go!), but I watched a team trade Vince Young and another trade Romo this year in favor of Brady and Rivers, respectively, and another invest heavily in Leinart and Kitna thinking they were going to dominate the Qb position for the next decade. Personally, I think Young and Romo are going to be hella more valuable than ANY RB not named LT 2-3 years from now, and the hype that RB's UBER ALLES gets from the fantasy FB media brainwashes people to an unnatural degree. Go back and look at the pre-season tout mags from the last 4-5 years and see how many of their top 10 RB's were even worth a pick in the top 5 rounds 2 years later. If you bat 50% you're lucky. QB's can be studs indefinitely.
Good post about Brees and Phil Simms, but from what I remember of Simms, he only had one HUGE year. Watching Brees for 3 games so far, gotta wonder if the similarity is a prophecy?
Re: Cutler, he has had decent fantasy #'s due to gunslinging bombs connecting every so often, but the guy is currently a pretty damned bad real-life NFL QB IMO due to OMG type mistakes. If I were to compare him to anybody it would be (conincidentally) Jake Plummer and Rex Grossman. Another interesting question about QB's development is do THOSE types ever turn into dependable studs?
Re: Romo, last night's game was a perfect showcase for what he brings to the table. As the announcers beat to death, his ability to avoid the rush and make aweseomly accurate throws on the move is jawdropping. Re: his contract status, personally I'd think the short-term franchise tag option is SMART, but then again, I don't run an NFL team. Were he ever to change teams, this is going to sound geeky, but I'd bet he's more capable of QB'ing a team with an iffy O line that any other QB in the NFL. Can you imagine Manning or Brady having to roll out and throw like that? They would never be able to do those things that Romo makes look easy.
Re: Romo v. Kitna, Kitna concussed already in week 2, sacked 8 times in a game where he had the game of his LIFE yesterday. Again, reference the injuries to Martz's QB's, and then think of Kitna's age. Like I said in an earlier post, odds are SKY HIGH that Kitna's nowhere near a starting QB job in 2009.
I liked your point about bias re: 'your' actual QB. Mine actually is Peyton Manning (have had him since my first day playing fantasy football. Nice to get lucky from the get go!), but I watched a team trade Vince Young and another trade Romo this year in favor of Brady and Rivers, respectively, and another invest heavily in Leinart and Kitna thinking they were going to dominate the Qb position for the next decade. Personally, I think Young and Romo are going to be hella more valuable than ANY RB not named LT 2-3 years from now, and the hype that RB's UBER ALLES gets from the fantasy FB media brainwashes people to an unnatural degree. Go back and look at the pre-season tout mags from the last 4-5 years and see how many of their top 10 RB's were even worth a pick in the top 5 rounds 2 years later. If you bat 50% you're lucky. QB's can be studs indefinitely.
Good post about Brees and Phil Simms, but from what I remember of Simms, he only had one HUGE year. Watching Brees for 3 games so far, gotta wonder if the similarity is a prophecy?
QUOTE (SayWhat? @ Sep 24 2007, 03:21 PM)
F&L - First of all, absolutely love the post! One of my favorites that I actually search to find if it drops of the front page. A few questions though:
1) Why no love for Marion Barber? Maybe it's not his overall ranking that I struggle with (your #22 running back), but the paltry "39" for a dynasty value. Thomas Jones with a 40? Caddy with a 50? In line with DJax (40), Cotchery (40) and Curry (38)? I don't see how Barber isn't in that next tier of RB's yet with a value in line.
2) Is there a reason you have so many WR values so high (90's), yet only 4 RB's in the 90's with the 5th dropping off to a value of 80? My only thought is that it has something to do with WR's having a much longer shelf life in a dynasty than the stud RB's? But aren't running backs that much more important due to their overall consistency? Reggie Bush as your #5 RB with an 80, yet 14 WR's with a ranking higher than that. Can you elaborate at all on your value system in general?
3) Lee Evans. No need to discuss what a disappointment he's been. I feel very confident saying it's not his talent or work ethic holding him back. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel though? Don't the Bills have to open that offense up a little bit, as they did at the end of last season?
Thanks!
1) Why no love for Marion Barber? Maybe it's not his overall ranking that I struggle with (your #22 running back), but the paltry "39" for a dynasty value. Thomas Jones with a 40? Caddy with a 50? In line with DJax (40), Cotchery (40) and Curry (38)? I don't see how Barber isn't in that next tier of RB's yet with a value in line.
2) Is there a reason you have so many WR values so high (90's), yet only 4 RB's in the 90's with the 5th dropping off to a value of 80? My only thought is that it has something to do with WR's having a much longer shelf life in a dynasty than the stud RB's? But aren't running backs that much more important due to their overall consistency? Reggie Bush as your #5 RB with an 80, yet 14 WR's with a ranking higher than that. Can you elaborate at all on your value system in general?
3) Lee Evans. No need to discuss what a disappointment he's been. I feel very confident saying it's not his talent or work ethic holding him back. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel though? Don't the Bills have to open that offense up a little bit, as they did at the end of last season?
Thanks!
Thank you, Say What!
1) For an in-depth discussion on Marion Barber's value, you can see posts #503-509 on page 11 from back in July. That will give you the basic gist of why I've been ranking Barber where I have. Basically, he was/is unlikely to repeat his TD production again, he was/is still sharing the load with another back, and the question of whether he would eventually take over as the full-time back was/is still up in the air. Even if what we had been seeing was a RB who was clearly better than Julius Jones, it's been a legit concern that two straight coaching staffs have evaluated the situation and decided that Jones should be the nominal starter with Barber being more of a role player.
All of that being said, Barber is outplaying Jones more than ever this season. It's become crystal clear to everyone except Wade Phillips and the offensive coaching staff that Barber should be usurping playing time and carries from Jones. Barber has been rushing with authority and explosiveness while Jones has been hesitant and concussion-prone. I've been incrementally raising Barber's value the past few weeks, but you're probably right that he deserves a significant boost...and soon. I just have to answer two important questions: a] will Barber & Jones continue to share the load fairly equally in '07? As of last week, Wade Phillips said he had no plans to alter the rotation. b] what does the future hold for Barber beyond '07? Will Julius Jones be gone? That seems like a very good possibility. Will the Cowboys go after McFadden with the Browns 1st round pick? I don't know what the percentages are there, but it seems that many Cowboys fans think he will be a target.
2) Yes, there is a reason for more WRs being in the 90s. The reason is that I believe there are more ultra-talented and productive dynasty WRs at the elite level right now whereas I don't think there are as many elite RBs at the moment. Outside of Calvin Johnson (who is truly an extraordinary talent), I really don't question the current or future production of WRs in tier one. With the 2nd tier RBs, I've questioned either their talent, health, expected '07 production, or their future production.
A guy like Joseph Addai is a perfect example. IIRC, I've had him ranked higher than most of the FBG staff all along, but I still don't have him in the top tier because I don't think he's an elite talent and there was some concern about his ability to carry a full load of 330+ carries. If he keeps producing at an elite level, he'll move up. In that way he's like the Reggie Wayne of RBs. I've never believed that Wayne was as talented as guys like Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, or Lee Evans. But he's been able to maintain elite dynasty value through consistent production in a uniquely explosive offense.
3) Yes, I see light at the end of the tunnel. It's only been three weeks, so we're not even that deep into the tunnel. What's different about the start to this season as opposed to last season? He showed last season that he could overcome a slow start to dominate the remainder of the season. However, I do worry about the Bills QB situation the rest of this season and the inability of the rest of their receivers to draw even a modicum of respect from the opposition. I could give them a mulligan for Evans' production in week one against Champ Bailey, but they should have been force-feeding him the ball in the next couple of games. I've been as down on Losman's status as the Bills' franchise QB as anybody around. I just didn't think he was good enough, and I expected him to take a step back this year. But I guess I was blinded enough to think Evans talent special enough to compensate for Losman's play.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Trent Edwards the next couple of weeks. If he plays well enough, I think it could plant an even bigger seed of doubt about Losman's tentative status as the future behind center in Buffalo. I believe that would ultimately be very good news for Lee Evans' future, but the news wouldn't be so great for the rest of the 2007 season. I've knocked Evans' value down a peg, and I may continue to dock him on '07 value...but the talent is still there to be an elite WR. I think he's a perfect target for teams that fall out of their playoff races early and are looking to build for next season.
QUOTE (Homer @ Sep 24 2007, 11:32 PM)
F&L, when talking about QB's that were high draft picks that ended up as horrible busts, the list is literally endless, but the most prominent recent examples of people holding out on the hype indefinitely with NO real reason other than a severely HO HUM 2nd or 3rd year are (indeed) Alex Smith and David Carr (and Joey Harrington slightly before that). Losman also somehow holds out hope for some dynasty owners I know.
Re: Cutler, he has had decent fantasy #'s due to gunslinging bombs connecting every so often, but the guy is currently a pretty damned bad real-life NFL QB IMO due to OMG type mistakes. If I were to compare him to anybody it would be (conincidentally) Jake Plummer and Rex Grossman. Another interesting question about QB's development is do THOSE types ever turn into dependable studs?
Re: Romo, last night's game was a perfect showcase for what he brings to the table. As the announcers beat to death, his ability to avoid the rush and make aweseomly accurate throws on the move is jawdropping. Re: his contract status, personally I'd think the short-term franchise tag option is SMART, but then again, I don't run an NFL team. Were he ever to change teams, this is going to sound geeky, but I'd bet he's more capable of QB'ing a team with an iffy O line that any other QB in the NFL. Can you imagine Manning or Brady having to roll out and throw like that? They would never be able to do those things that Romo makes look easy.
Re: Romo v. Kitna, Kitna concussed already in week 2, sacked 8 times in a game where he had the game of his LIFE yesterday. Again, reference the injuries to Martz's QB's, and then think of Kitna's age. Like I said in an earlier post, odds are SKY HIGH that Kitna's nowhere near a starting QB job in 2009.
I liked your point about bias re: 'your' actual QB. Mine actually is Peyton Manning (have had him since my first day playing fantasy football. Nice to get lucky from the get go!), but I watched a team trade Vince Young and another trade Romo this year in favor of Brady and Rivers, respectively, and another invest heavily in Leinart and Kitna thinking they were going to dominate the Qb position for the next decade. Personally, I think Young and Romo are going to be hella more valuable than ANY RB not named LT 2-3 years from now, and the hype that RB's UBER ALLES gets from the fantasy FB media brainwashes people to an unnatural degree. Go back and look at the pre-season tout mags from the last 4-5 years and see how many of their top 10 RB's were even worth a pick in the top 5 rounds 2 years later. If you bat 50% you're lucky. QB's can be studs indefinitely.
Good post about Brees and Phil Simms, but from what I remember of Simms, he only had one HUGE year. Watching Brees for 3 games so far, gotta wonder if the similarity is a prophecy?
Re: Cutler, he has had decent fantasy #'s due to gunslinging bombs connecting every so often, but the guy is currently a pretty damned bad real-life NFL QB IMO due to OMG type mistakes. If I were to compare him to anybody it would be (conincidentally) Jake Plummer and Rex Grossman. Another interesting question about QB's development is do THOSE types ever turn into dependable studs?
Re: Romo, last night's game was a perfect showcase for what he brings to the table. As the announcers beat to death, his ability to avoid the rush and make aweseomly accurate throws on the move is jawdropping. Re: his contract status, personally I'd think the short-term franchise tag option is SMART, but then again, I don't run an NFL team. Were he ever to change teams, this is going to sound geeky, but I'd bet he's more capable of QB'ing a team with an iffy O line that any other QB in the NFL. Can you imagine Manning or Brady having to roll out and throw like that? They would never be able to do those things that Romo makes look easy.
Re: Romo v. Kitna, Kitna concussed already in week 2, sacked 8 times in a game where he had the game of his LIFE yesterday. Again, reference the injuries to Martz's QB's, and then think of Kitna's age. Like I said in an earlier post, odds are SKY HIGH that Kitna's nowhere near a starting QB job in 2009.
I liked your point about bias re: 'your' actual QB. Mine actually is Peyton Manning (have had him since my first day playing fantasy football. Nice to get lucky from the get go!), but I watched a team trade Vince Young and another trade Romo this year in favor of Brady and Rivers, respectively, and another invest heavily in Leinart and Kitna thinking they were going to dominate the Qb position for the next decade. Personally, I think Young and Romo are going to be hella more valuable than ANY RB not named LT 2-3 years from now, and the hype that RB's UBER ALLES gets from the fantasy FB media brainwashes people to an unnatural degree. Go back and look at the pre-season tout mags from the last 4-5 years and see how many of their top 10 RB's were even worth a pick in the top 5 rounds 2 years later. If you bat 50% you're lucky. QB's can be studs indefinitely.
Good post about Brees and Phil Simms, but from what I remember of Simms, he only had one HUGE year. Watching Brees for 3 games so far, gotta wonder if the similarity is a prophecy?
Re: Alex Smith. Just to make sure we're straight on this one, I've actually been defending myself from Alex Smith supporters since I began this thread. I've never been a believer, but I've been willing to let him develop since I've seen guys like EBF make a strong case for him. There are a lot of guys around these parts offering their dimestore advice on players, but EBF is one of the few where I regularly take in what he has to say and roll it around in my head next to my own thoughts on the player. Now EBF's recent mea culpa on Alex Smith leaves me even less confident about his future. But back to the main point: our original discussion via Romo vs. Smith was more about Romo than Smith from my end. Romo's conclusion to last season had me overly concerned that he wouldn't bounce back to put up similar production in 2007, which would leave his future very much in doubt. I obviously whiffed on that one.
Re: Cutler. You're more down on his future than just about anybody I've read. He's played what amounts to half a season, and you've already written him off as a failure. The comparison I've most often seen is Favre, yet you've compared him to Plummer and Grossman. Granted, Favre is quite a stretch on the positive side, but I don't see Plummer or Grossman at all.
Re: Dynasty QBs vs. Dynasty RBs. I said pretty much said the same thing way back in post #164. I try to make sure I have one major bellcow RB in dynasty leagues, but equally as important is a franchise QB because the top tier are usually reliable from season to season. I agree that RBs come and go with great frequency, so many of them are actually over-valued in comparison to stud QBs & WRs in dynasty leagues.
Great discussion, Homer. I enjoyed it. Very good points made all around.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 27 2007, 10:43 PM)
A guy like Joseph Addai is a perfect example. IIRC, I've had him ranked higher than most of the FBG staff all along, but I still don't have him in the top tier because I don't think he's an elite talent and there was some concern about his ability to carry a full load of 330+ carries. If he keeps producing at an elite level, he'll move up. In that way he's like the Reggie Wayne of RBs. I've never believed that Wayne was as talented as guys like Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, or Lee Evans. But he's been able to maintain elite dynasty value through consistent production in a uniquely explosive offense.
Precisely why I don't understand why you've got Peterson in the 1st tier...ahead of Addai. He's proven that he can't carry a full load and he's playing in an offense that doesn't have a QB or anybody for him to throw to...and I don't see that situation clearing itself up anytime soon. So, a back with a history of injury problems in an offense that will have to revolve around him touching the ball 30 plus times a game should really sound alarm bells...shouldn't it? At the very least, he should be slid down the rankings at least to the 2nd tier and maybe even the 3rd tier until he plays more than 3 games against bad teams. The next half dozen games or so should be a good test to see if he'll be able to live up to the hype as he'll face some very stout defenses who should have no trouble shutting down the Viking air attack and can focus on keeping ADP in check.
I guess it comes down to personal opinion, and I know you like ADP very much, but if it came down to it, would you really pick ADP over Addai if you had the choice right now?
Ronnie Dayne deserves to be ranked--he is getting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be in Tier 2 or top of Tier 3. He is a top 10 TE and has lots of upside.
Jeff King should be in Tier 2 or top of Tier 3. He is a top 10 TE and has lots of upside.
Ronnie Dayne deserves to be ranked--he is getting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be in Tier 2 or top of Tier 3. He is a top 10 TE and has lots of upside.
Jeff King should be in Tier 2 or top of Tier 3. He is a top 10 TE and has lots of upside.
Ronnie Dayne should be in Tier Five. He is gettting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
QUOTE (johnnyshaka @ Sep 29 2007, 01:13 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 27 2007, 10:43 PM)
A guy like Joseph Addai is a perfect example. IIRC, I've had him ranked higher than most of the FBG staff all along, but I still don't have him in the top tier because I don't think he's an elite talent and there was some concern about his ability to carry a full load of 330+ carries. If he keeps producing at an elite level, he'll move up. In that way he's like the Reggie Wayne of RBs. I've never believed that Wayne was as talented as guys like Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, or Lee Evans. But he's been able to maintain elite dynasty value through consistent production in a uniquely explosive offense.
Precisely why I don't understand why you've got Peterson in the 1st tier...ahead of Addai. He's proven that he can't carry a full load and he's playing in an offense that doesn't have a QB or anybody for him to throw to...and I don't see that situation clearing itself up anytime soon. So, a back with a history of injury problems in an offense that will have to revolve around him touching the ball 30 plus times a game should really sound alarm bells...shouldn't it? At the very least, he should be slid down the rankings at least to the 2nd tier and maybe even the 3rd tier until he plays more than 3 games against bad teams. The next half dozen games or so should be a good test to see if he'll be able to live up to the hype as he'll face some very stout defenses who should have no trouble shutting down the Viking air attack and can focus on keeping ADP in check.
I guess it comes down to personal opinion, and I know you like ADP very much, but if it came down to it, would you really pick ADP over Addai if you had the choice right now?
What are you talking about with this Peterson has proven he can't carry a full load? He's a rookie three games into the season. By definition, he hasn't proven anything beyond the fact that he's an unusual talent when you watch him play. If you have failed to understand the concept by now, I really can't nail it any harder: dynasty leagues reward anticipation. You don't get rewarded for finding out after the fact that Chester Taylor is an average back without much of an effect on Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. You don't get rewarded for finding out two years from now that Adrian Peterson is light years ahead of Addai.
Why do I care that you can't see the situation clearing up anytime soon? My job is to see things before you see them.
The answer to your last question is absolutely 8 days a week I take ADP over Addai. It's about vision, not last week's game.
This cracks me up:
QUOTE
He's proven that he can't carry a full load
What else has he proven? That he'll shatter the freshman rushing record with a separated shoulder? That he'll try again and again to play through a high ankle sprain? That he had a fluke collar bone injury half-way through his junior season? That none of these injuries should have any relation whatsoever to his NFL career? That anyone who has actually seen him play and knows how football works sees a true offensive fulcrum?
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 01:50 AM)
Ronnie Dayne should be in Tier Five. He is gettting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
I was higher on Jeff King all along than anybody related to FBG (with the possible exception of Pasquino). But come on, three weeks? Let's not go overboard. If he keeps it up, he'll move up. I'm a believer...in fact, I'm at the vanguard on Jeff King. But why not let things shake out for more than three weeks?
Ron Dayne. Ya got me there. He has no past, and he has no future. But he does have a window on the present. Ron Dayne is the quintessential speculative re-draft value with no dynasty value. You're right...he should be in there somewhere, but you've got bigger concerns in dynasty leagues than Ron Dayne. How many times have you been burned on him by now? Edit to add: you are right. I meant to add Ron Dayne last week, but I never thought anybody would call me on Dayne in a dynasty league. He certainly deserves to be in there, but I just never envisioned anybody beyond Dayne's agent making a dynasty argument for his inclusion.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 29 2007, 12:02 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 27 2007, 10:43 PM)
A guy like Joseph Addai is a perfect example. IIRC, I've had him ranked higher than most of the FBG staff all along, but I still don't have him in the top tier because I don't think he's an elite talent and there was some concern about his ability to carry a full load of 330+ carries. If he keeps producing at an elite level, he'll move up. In that way he's like the Reggie Wayne of RBs. I've never believed that Wayne was as talented as guys like Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, or Lee Evans. But he's been able to maintain elite dynasty value through consistent production in a uniquely explosive offense.
What are you talking about with this Peterson has proven he can't carry a full load? He's a rookie three games into the season. By definition, he hasn't proven anything beyond the fact that he's an unusual talent when you watch him play. If you have failed to understand the concept by now, I really can't nail it any harder: dynasty leagues reward anticipation. You don't get rewarded for finding out after the fact that Chester Taylor is an average back without much of an effect on Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. You don't get rewarded for finding out two years from now that Adrian Peterson is light years ahead of Addai.
You were concerned about Addai's ability to carry the full load and I'm assuming that's because he's never done so...in college or the NFL. Agreed, nobody is expecting he'll ever be the type of back that will carry it 30-35 times a game for an entire season. But, with that said, he didn't have a problem logging 350 touches last season so I see no reason why he couldn't do at least that again this season and beyond. You also mentioned that he lacks that elite talent...and again, I agree, but his situation and his skill set improve his value significantly.
What I meant by my comment about ADP not being able to carry the full load is that the last time he did so was in 2004 and every season since then his touches have gone down. Talented or not, injuries happen and more often than not, they linger. Trust me, I'd love to see ADP go on to have a 10 year, injury free, career and break a bunch of records but I think the odds are stacked against him. Obviously, we disagree.
With all of that said...I'm trying as hard as I can to get my hands on ADP because there is a chance that he could put up a season similar to what LT or SJax did last year. But, I've already got Addai, so if ADP doesn't pan out, I won't be overly upset.
I sensed a little hostility in your reply and I hope that wasn't in reaction to my initial post because I didn't intend it to come off as argumentative at all. If it did, I apologize. I check this thread several times a week and appreciate all the work you've put into it and I thank you for that.
Love this thread F & L....Quick ? regarding the WR2 spot in N.O. I notice you still have Meachem and Henderson in Tier 5 & even Patten in Tier 7. Any chance at all that Lance Moore who led the league in yds. in the preseason and is second in targets to Colston through 3 games gets a shot (especially over Henderson & Patten - dynasty wise?)....Meachem seems to be REALLY struggling from everything I've read & with Deuce gone and that pourous D it looks like a LOT of passing coming up...
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 29 2007, 01:11 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 01:50 AM)
Ronnie Dayne should be in Tier Five. He is gettting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
I heard you the first time.
Again, I was higher on Jeff King all along than anybody related to FBG (with the possible exception of Pasquino). But come on, three weeks? Let's not go overboard. If he keeps it up, he'll move up. I'm a believer...in fact, I'm at the vanguard on Jeff King. But why not let things shake out for more than three weeks?
Ron Dayne. Ya got me there. He has no past, and he has no future. But he does have a window on the present. Ron Dayne is the quintessential speculative re-draft value with no dynasty value. You're right...he should be in there somewhere, but you've got bigger concerns in dynasty leagues than Ron Dayne. How many times have you been burned on him by now? Edit to add: you are right. I meant to add Ron Dayne last week, but I never thought anybody would call me on Dayne in a dynasty league. He certainly deserves to be in there, but I just never envisioned anybody beyond Dayne's agent making a dynasty argument for his inclusion.
Something happened with computer and that is why it posted three times: my apologies.
I can understand waiting on King, but I personally have seen enough. Usually three weeks solid production in a row means the guy is for real.
Dayne? I disagree that he has no future. Ahman Green is almost out of gas. No one else on that team could beat Dayne out. And he did well last year with the opportunity. He has a chance again this week it looks. Beyond that, dynasty is also about the present. I happen to be starting him as my flex option and he gives me a third RB which is much better than a fourth Wr. I will be surprised if he doesn't put up at least 10 points, and I am hoping for 15. That makes him worth something right now--as much as Chris Perry, for example, who has no past, no present, and a very uncertain future.
I really love this thread and appreciate your comments even if I disagree about a couple.
What makes you think Houston won't just draft another back or sign another free agent to replace Ahman when he's finally done? Houston's actions this offseason indicate that they're not content with the idea of Dayne as their starting RB. I don't see any reason to expect their attitude to change.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Hey F&L:
Great thread! Solid work here. I am totally with you on Adrian Peterson, but I have to ask why you have Romo ranked below Brees right now.
I would never rank Romo in the top tier with Brady, Manning, or Palmer. But no way in a million years would I rank Brees above Romo at this point. I know that Romo is hot right now and Brees' stock has plummeted. But it seems like Romo has more weapons at his disposal than Brees. Yes, Brees has Colston and Bush. However, the Saints don't have any WR or TE that are even close to Owens and Witten.
I like Brees as a QB. He's cool and accurate. I just think that most dynasty owners would much rather have Romo than Brees as their QB - now and long-term.
Great thread! Solid work here. I am totally with you on Adrian Peterson, but I have to ask why you have Romo ranked below Brees right now.
I would never rank Romo in the top tier with Brady, Manning, or Palmer. But no way in a million years would I rank Brees above Romo at this point. I know that Romo is hot right now and Brees' stock has plummeted. But it seems like Romo has more weapons at his disposal than Brees. Yes, Brees has Colston and Bush. However, the Saints don't have any WR or TE that are even close to Owens and Witten.
I like Brees as a QB. He's cool and accurate. I just think that most dynasty owners would much rather have Romo than Brees as their QB - now and long-term.
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 29 2007, 04:49 PM)
What makes you think Houston won't just draft another back or sign another free agent to replace Ahman when he's finally done? Houston's actions this offseason indicate that they're not content with the idea of Dayne as their starting RB. I don't see any reason to expect their attitude to change.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Houston may draft a back for next year. But doesn't this year have value? And, if Dayne gets more time to shine this year and does, they may NOT draft someone. Or, they may draft someone, like Brandon Jackson for example, and he may be no good. What has Perry done? He has missed more games than he has been active for. He is not active now. He has Rudi Johnson and Watson ahead of him, plus he has Irons to compete with next year. Perry has no value now and doesn't have much the rest of the year.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 10:57 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 29 2007, 04:49 PM)
What makes you think Houston won't just draft another back or sign another free agent to replace Ahman when he's finally done? Houston's actions this offseason indicate that they're not content with the idea of Dayne as their starting RB. I don't see any reason to expect their attitude to change.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Houston may draft a back for next year. But doesn't this year have value? And, if Dayne gets more time to shine this year and does, they may NOT draft someone. Or, they may draft someone, like Brandon Jackson for example, and he may be no good. What has Perry done? He has missed more games than he has been active for. He is not active now. He has Rudi Johnson and Watson ahead of him, plus he has Irons to compete with next year. Perry has no value now and doesn't have much the rest of the year.
Perry has potential. Dayne doesn't. Neither has much value in the short term, so you're much better off taking the guy who could conceivably become a player instead of the journeyman.
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 29 2007, 11:03 PM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 10:57 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 29 2007, 04:49 PM)
What makes you think Houston won't just draft another back or sign another free agent to replace Ahman when he's finally done? Houston's actions this offseason indicate that they're not content with the idea of Dayne as their starting RB. I don't see any reason to expect their attitude to change.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Dayne has almost zero dynasty value. I'd do cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry for him.
Houston may draft a back for next year. But doesn't this year have value? And, if Dayne gets more time to shine this year and does, they may NOT draft someone. Or, they may draft someone, like Brandon Jackson for example, and he may be no good. What has Perry done? He has missed more games than he has been active for. He is not active now. He has Rudi Johnson and Watson ahead of him, plus he has Irons to compete with next year. Perry has no value now and doesn't have much the rest of the year.
Perry has potential. Dayne doesn't. Neither has much value in the short term, so you're much better off taking the guy who could conceivably become a player instead of the journeyman.
I guess we will just have to disagree. It seems to me that you are giving no value to the immediate, which is when the games actually count. This is a common mistake in dynasty. Last year Dayne's four games helped me limp into the playoffs and win a couple of playoff games, netting some $$$. If he plays this one game this year and puts up 10-15 points he was worth owning and will do more for me than most of the guys on my roster. I expect he will start more games than Green, but that's just a guess. We'll have to check back later in the year.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 28 2007, 12:08 AM)
Re: Cutler. You're more down on his future than just about anybody I've read. He's played what amounts to half a season, and you've already written him off as a failure. The comparison I've most often seen is Favre, yet you've compared him to Plummer and Grossman. Granted, Favre is quite a stretch on the positive side, but I don't see Plummer or Grossman at all.
If I said anything about Cutler about "writing him off as a failure", then I didn't state my case very well. Obviously it's too early to tell about him -- one way or the other. But what I MEANT to say is that he really hasn't proven much, if anything, and his mistakes have been jawdropping whoppers, which have really hurt his team. The Broncos really SHOULD BE 0-3 right now, and that's with 2 games against the Bills and Raiders that they were seconds/inches away from losing to 2 of the worst teams in football. And the defense has played quite well, and the running game has excelled as usual. Racking up yardage between the 20's is certainly valuable in fantasy football, but making boneheaded mistakes at crucial times that cost your team games don't lend themselves to a QB with a long term future. Maybe these are simply mistakes all inexperienced QB's make and I'm being overly critical, but, again, they're the kind of mistakes that Plummer made that got him run out of town, and that got Grossman benched. Oh, and Favre has made the same type of picks in recent years as well, so if you want to compare him to TODAY'S Brett Favre, I'd think that would fit too. For those that are HIGH on Cutler, exactly what have you seen that leads you to believe that he is going to be GOOD and overcome his fumble/interception problems?
I'll say AGAIN, anyone that's high on Cutler, it would seem to me based on his arm and his status as a high 1st round pick rather than any sort of excellence he's shown in games, other than he can throw a nice deep ball. As some talking head recently said about QB's drafted in the 1st round, it's a coin flip whether they'll be a quality NFL QB or a horrible bust, and you're never going to know based on tools or draft status which camp they'll represent. It's a crapshoot.
QUOTE (johnnyshaka @ Sep 29 2007, 05:15 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 29 2007, 12:02 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 27 2007, 10:43 PM)
A guy like Joseph Addai is a perfect example. IIRC, I've had him ranked higher than most of the FBG staff all along, but I still don't have him in the top tier because I don't think he's an elite talent and there was some concern about his ability to carry a full load of 330+ carries. If he keeps producing at an elite level, he'll move up. In that way he's like the Reggie Wayne of RBs. I've never believed that Wayne was as talented as guys like Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, or Lee Evans. But he's been able to maintain elite dynasty value through consistent production in a uniquely explosive offense.
What are you talking about with this Peterson has proven he can't carry a full load? He's a rookie three games into the season. By definition, he hasn't proven anything beyond the fact that he's an unusual talent when you watch him play. If you have failed to understand the concept by now, I really can't nail it any harder: dynasty leagues reward anticipation. You don't get rewarded for finding out after the fact that Chester Taylor is an average back without much of an effect on Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. You don't get rewarded for finding out two years from now that Adrian Peterson is light years ahead of Addai.
You were concerned about Addai's ability to carry the full load and I'm assuming that's because he's never done so...in college or the NFL. Agreed, nobody is expecting he'll ever be the type of back that will carry it 30-35 times a game for an entire season. But, with that said, he didn't have a problem logging 350 touches last season so I see no reason why he couldn't do at least that again this season and beyond. You also mentioned that he lacks that elite talent...and again, I agree, but his situation and his skill set improve his value significantly.
What I meant by my comment about ADP not being able to carry the full load is that the last time he did so was in 2004 and every season since then his touches have gone down. Talented or not, injuries happen and more often than not, they linger. Trust me, I'd love to see ADP go on to have a 10 year, injury free, career and break a bunch of records but I think the odds are stacked against him. Obviously, we disagree.
With all of that said...I'm trying as hard as I can to get my hands on ADP because there is a chance that he could put up a season similar to what LT or SJax did last year. But, I've already got Addai, so if ADP doesn't pan out, I won't be overly upset.
I sensed a little hostility in your reply and I hope that wasn't in reaction to my initial post because I didn't intend it to come off as argumentative at all. If it did, I apologize. I check this thread several times a week and appreciate all the work you've put into it and I thank you for that.
johnnyshaka,
You're right. Long night the other night, and I realize my grumpiness made its way into my response. Mea culpa.
I think here's where we differ: difference-making talent is always worth the risk.
If the Vikes' putrid offense hasn't held him back this year (and it obviously hasn't with close to 150 yards/game), then I don't see how a likely-to-be-improved Vikes' offense will hold him back in the future. As far as injuries go, he plays RB in the NFL. They're all injury risks. I don't think any of Peterson's college injuries leave him more injury prone than other NFL backs, and you could argue that his legs are even fresher than most because he's had plenty of time to rest the past couple of seasons.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 05:24 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 29 2007, 01:11 AM)
QUOTE (az_prof @ Sep 29 2007, 01:50 AM)
Ronnie Dayne should be in Tier Five. He is gettting a lot of carries and is likely to start this week.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
Jeff King should be at the top of Tier Three; through three weeks he has shown consistent production.
I heard you the first time.
Again, I was higher on Jeff King all along than anybody related to FBG (with the possible exception of Pasquino). But come on, three weeks? Let's not go overboard. If he keeps it up, he'll move up. I'm a believer...in fact, I'm at the vanguard on Jeff King. But why not let things shake out for more than three weeks?
Ron Dayne. Ya got me there. He has no past, and he has no future. But he does have a window on the present. Ron Dayne is the quintessential speculative re-draft value with no dynasty value. You're right...he should be in there somewhere, but you've got bigger concerns in dynasty leagues than Ron Dayne. How many times have you been burned on him by now? Edit to add: you are right. I meant to add Ron Dayne last week, but I never thought anybody would call me on Dayne in a dynasty league. He certainly deserves to be in there, but I just never envisioned anybody beyond Dayne's agent making a dynasty argument for his inclusion.
Something happened with computer and that is why it posted three times: my apologies.
I can understand waiting on King, but I personally have seen enough. Usually three weeks solid production in a row means the guy is for real.
Dayne? I disagree that he has no future. Ahman Green is almost out of gas. No one else on that team could beat Dayne out. And he did well last year with the opportunity. He has a chance again this week it looks. Beyond that, dynasty is also about the present. I happen to be starting him as my flex option and he gives me a third RB which is much better than a fourth Wr. I will be surprised if he doesn't put up at least 10 points, and I am hoping for 15. That makes him worth something right now--as much as Chris Perry, for example, who has no past, no present, and a very uncertain future.
I really love this thread and appreciate your comments even if I disagree about a couple.
az_prof,
My bad on the grumpy response. Long night, but that's no excuse.
I don't think we really disagree on King's value. If he keeps producing at the same rate for another couple of weeks, he'll find his way up there right behind Dallas Clark.
EBF pretty much mirrored my thoughts on Dayne. I hear what you're saying on present value in dynasty leagues. I agree that present value often gets overlooked in dynasty leagues, I just think Dayne has very little present value. Woe unto you who are starting him. We're talking about a player who has disappointed over and over again throughout his career. If you've been one who has had faith in Dayne all along, you've no doubt been punished rather than rewarded at almost every turn. I would never leave myself in a position where I had to rely on Ron Dayne to start for me. That's simply the product of seeing him fail so many times throughout his career and not being able to ever picture him as more than a band-aid starter the rest of his career. You've obviously seen him succeed when you needed him for 4 games last season, so I understand that you see it differently. One of the smartest guys in the fantasy football business, Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal, has also been fairly high on Dayne this year...so maybe it's close-mindedness on my end.
I'll add Dayne as I meant to add him a couple of weeks ago and forgot. But he's nothing more than depth in my opinion.
QUOTE (Fighting Noles @ Sep 29 2007, 03:39 PM)
Love this thread F & L....Quick ? regarding the WR2 spot in N.O. I notice you still have Meachem and Henderson in Tier 5 & even Patten in Tier 7. Any chance at all that Lance Moore who led the league in yds. in the preseason and is second in targets to Colston through 3 games gets a shot (especially over Henderson & Patten - dynasty wise?)....Meachem seems to be REALLY struggling from everything I've read & with Deuce gone and that pourous D it looks like a LOT of passing coming up...
Thanks, Fighting Noles.
I think there's definitely a chance that Moore becomes a fantasy factor the rest of this season. However, I think he's a guy who will have more value in redraft leagues than dynasty...think Mike Furrey long term. Meachem is struggling and the Saints clearly aren't counting on him any time soon, but he's still the future opposite Colston in New Orleans. I always figured Henderson is a good fit as the #3, and I think he'll make his way out of the doghouse at some point.
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Sep 29 2007, 10:40 PM)
Hey F&L:
Great thread! Solid work here. I am totally with you on Adrian Peterson, but I have to ask why you have Romo ranked below Brees right now.
I would never rank Romo in the top tier with Brady, Manning, or Palmer. But no way in a million years would I rank Brees above Romo at this point. I know that Romo is hot right now and Brees' stock has plummeted. But it seems like Romo has more weapons at his disposal than Brees. Yes, Brees has Colston and Bush. However, the Saints don't have any WR or TE that are even close to Owens and Witten.
I like Brees as a QB. He's cool and accurate. I just think that most dynasty owners would much rather have Romo than Brees as their QB - now and long-term.
Great thread! Solid work here. I am totally with you on Adrian Peterson, but I have to ask why you have Romo ranked below Brees right now.
I would never rank Romo in the top tier with Brady, Manning, or Palmer. But no way in a million years would I rank Brees above Romo at this point. I know that Romo is hot right now and Brees' stock has plummeted. But it seems like Romo has more weapons at his disposal than Brees. Yes, Brees has Colston and Bush. However, the Saints don't have any WR or TE that are even close to Owens and Witten.
I like Brees as a QB. He's cool and accurate. I just think that most dynasty owners would much rather have Romo than Brees as their QB - now and long-term.
Thanks, jdog.
I don't know. Is three games too early to write off Brees' past 3 seasons? He seems more proven and reliable than Romo to me.
This sounds like a good poll question: "Who would you rather have as your franchise QB in dynasty leagues? Drew Brees or Tony Romo?"
Good morning...Your work is much appreciated!
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
QUOTE (Poppa @ Sep 30 2007, 09:46 AM)
Good morning...Your work is much appreciated!
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
Hi, Poppa.
Look two posts up. I think we were both typing at the same time.
I like him better as a redraft WR as opposed to a guy to hoard in dynasty. He seems like a Furrey type to me -- a patch as opposed to a solution.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 30 2007, 09:51 AM)
QUOTE (Poppa @ Sep 30 2007, 09:46 AM)
Good morning...Your work is much appreciated!
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
Any thoughts on Lance Moore, re this post? : http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7434667
Hi, Poppa.
Look two posts up. I think we were both typing at the same time.
I like him better as a redraft WR as opposed to a guy to hoard in dynasty. He seems like a Furrey type to me -- a patch as opposed to a solution.
Thank you!
Best thread in the SP...
Updated through the 1:00 & 4:00 Sunday games of Week 4.
As I'm sure you will all notice, I have taken my medicine on Tony Romo. He's now in the Top 5 QBs where he rightfully belongs. I may be addle-brained on some rankings, but at least I'm not "The Worst Person in the NFL." That honor has clearly passed from Cam Cameron & Rex Grossman to Brad Childress this week. As Cameron has already learned and Childress will soon enough, when you have a stud RB who is clearly your best offensive player, you RIDE THAT HORSE! Losing coaches stubbornly cling to mediocrities like Jesse Chatman and Chester Taylor while continually hamstringing their teams' chances of winning. Winning coaches go out of their way to put their best playmakers in position to make plays throughout the game.
2007 WORST PERSON IN THE NFL AWARD
Pre-Season: Jack Del Rio
Week 1: Cam Cameron
Week 2: Cam Cameron / Norv Turner
Week 3: Rex Grossman / Lovie Smith
Week 4: Brad Childress
WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS
AFC
1. New England Patriots, 3-0 / +79
2. Indianapolis Colts, 4-0 / +57
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 3-1 / +64
4. Tennessee Titans, 2-1 / +18
5. San Diego Chargers, 1-3 / -34
6. Denver Broncos, 2-2 / -23
7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-1 / +12
8. Baltimore Ravens, 2-2 / -11
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 4-0 / +79
2. Green Bay Packers, 4-0 / +39
3. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 / +34
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-1 / +37
5. Chicago Bears, 1-3 / -35
6. Washington Redskins, 2-1 / +4
7. Philadelphia Eagles, 1-2 / +24
8. Detroit Lions, 3-1 / -7
As I'm sure you will all notice, I have taken my medicine on Tony Romo. He's now in the Top 5 QBs where he rightfully belongs. I may be addle-brained on some rankings, but at least I'm not "The Worst Person in the NFL." That honor has clearly passed from Cam Cameron & Rex Grossman to Brad Childress this week. As Cameron has already learned and Childress will soon enough, when you have a stud RB who is clearly your best offensive player, you RIDE THAT HORSE! Losing coaches stubbornly cling to mediocrities like Jesse Chatman and Chester Taylor while continually hamstringing their teams' chances of winning. Winning coaches go out of their way to put their best playmakers in position to make plays throughout the game.
2007 WORST PERSON IN THE NFL AWARD
Pre-Season: Jack Del Rio
Week 1: Cam Cameron
Week 2: Cam Cameron / Norv Turner
Week 3: Rex Grossman / Lovie Smith
Week 4: Brad Childress
WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS
AFC
1. New England Patriots, 3-0 / +79
2. Indianapolis Colts, 4-0 / +57
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 3-1 / +64
4. Tennessee Titans, 2-1 / +18
5. San Diego Chargers, 1-3 / -34
6. Denver Broncos, 2-2 / -23
7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-1 / +12
8. Baltimore Ravens, 2-2 / -11
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 4-0 / +79
2. Green Bay Packers, 4-0 / +39
3. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 / +34
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-1 / +37
5. Chicago Bears, 1-3 / -35
6. Washington Redskins, 2-1 / +4
7. Philadelphia Eagles, 1-2 / +24
8. Detroit Lions, 3-1 / -7
I didn't watch the Buffalo game today, but I did check out the highlights and I also watched Trent Edwards' press conferences from earlier in the week and from after the game. I have to admit some bias since I'm a Stanford fan and since I own Edwards in 60% of my dynasty leagues, but I'm getting pretty excited about this guy. He's tough, smart, and composed. He went out and played a very solid game today. He has the physical ability to be successful and I'm really impressed with his poise and confidence. Obviously it's way too early to make the Brady comparison, but I could see his value climbing up into the Schaub range if he keeps playing like he did today. As I said earlier, I don't think I'd trade him for Quinn or Russell at this point. He's played about as well as a rookie QB could play.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 30 2007, 10:28 PM)
I didn't watch the Buffalo game today, but I did check out the highlights and I also watched Trent Edwards' press conferences from earlier in the week and from after the game. I have to admit some bias since I'm a Stanford fan and since I own Edwards in 60% of my dynasty leagues, but I'm getting pretty excited about this guy. He's tough, smart, and composed. He went out and played a very solid game today. He has the physical ability to be successful and I'm really impressed with his poise and confidence. Obviously it's way too early to make the Brady comparison, but I could see his value climbing up into the Schaub range if he keeps playing like he did today. As I said earlier, I don't think I'd trade him for Quinn or Russell at this point. He's played about as well as a rookie QB could play.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
Thanks, EBF.
I agree on Trent Edwards. I never saw him play in college, but I've been high on him for two reasons. I've never believed in Losman as a franchise QB, and a lot of what I had read on Edwards led me to believe he was a 1st round talent slipping to the 3rd round for reasons beyond his control. Throw in his poise, accuracy, and production in the pre-season, and he's been extremely high on my watch list. I'd have him higher if I believed the Bills were as convinced as we are that he's superior to Losman right now. I think he'll end up winning the power struggle against Losman in the long run, but it's a question of how much of his value is present and how much future? The Bills are going to have an important, possibly franchise changing decision on their hands in a couple of weeks.
On Holmes and Bowe, I actually debated putting them higher. But I couldn't talk myself into burying Hines Ward just yet...although if history is any indication, I probably should. I think Ward has more left in the tank now than Muhsin Muhammad did at this time last season, but it's definitely a similar situation. I had Muhammad ranked higher than Berrian going into October last season when I should have anticipated a changing of the guard. What are the percentages on Holmes taking over for Hines Ward as the go-to WR in Pittsburgh this season? Has Ward become an injury-prone WR passing his prime or will he bounce back just fine once he gets healthy? Speaking of which, lord_helmut owes me an "I told you so" on Houshmandzadeh vs. Ward.
I think D-Bo has to be ranked high because who would trade him right now? I don't have him in any dynasty leagues, but he'd command a very steep price if I did...even if he does play for the Chiefs. I probably should have him higher because I doubt I'd deal him for a guy like Laveranues Coles (but that all goes back to who else is on your roster and how much you need to rely on Laveranues on a weekly basis).
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Sep 30 2007, 09:54 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Sep 30 2007, 10:28 PM)
I didn't watch the Buffalo game today, but I did check out the highlights and I also watched Trent Edwards' press conferences from earlier in the week and from after the game. I have to admit some bias since I'm a Stanford fan and since I own Edwards in 60% of my dynasty leagues, but I'm getting pretty excited about this guy. He's tough, smart, and composed. He went out and played a very solid game today. He has the physical ability to be successful and I'm really impressed with his poise and confidence. Obviously it's way too early to make the Brady comparison, but I could see his value climbing up into the Schaub range if he keeps playing like he did today. As I said earlier, I don't think I'd trade him for Quinn or Russell at this point. He's played about as well as a rookie QB could play.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
Kudos to you for your rankings of Bowe and Holmes. They're right where they should be. Those two guys seemingly have very bright futures. I'll also be keeping an eye on Sidney Rice this season. He's neither fast nor explosive, but he's super athletic and he makes plays. Check out his TD grab from today if you get a chance. He made a pretty tough catch look easy. I think he could emerge as a pretty solid player as early as this season.
Thanks, EBF.
I agree on Trent Edwards. I never saw him play in college, but I've been high on him for two reasons. I've never believed in Losman as a franchise QB, and a lot of what I had read on Edwards led me to believe he was a 1st round talent slipping to the 3rd round for reasons beyond his control. Throw in his poise, accuracy, and production in the pre-season, and he's been extremely high on my watch list. I'd have him higher if I believed the Bills were as convinced as we are that he's superior to Losman right now. I think he'll end up winning the power struggle against Losman in the long run, but it's a question of how much of his value is present and how much future? The Bills are going to have an important, possibly franchise changing decision on their hands in a couple of weeks.
On Holmes and Bowe, I actually debated putting them higher. But I couldn't talk myself into burying Hines Ward just yet...although if history is any indication, I probably should. I think Ward has more left in the tank now than Muhsin Muhammad did at this time last season, but it's definitely a similar situation. I had Muhammad ranked higher than Berrian going into October last season when I should have anticipated a changing of the guard. What are the percentages on Holmes taking over for Hines Ward as the go-to WR in Pittsburgh this season? Has Ward become an injury-prone WR passing his prime or will he bounce back just fine once he gets healthy? Speaking of which, lord_helmut owes me an "I told you so" on Houshmandzadeh vs. Ward.
I think D-Bo has to be ranked high because who would trade him right now? I don't have him in any dynasty leagues, but he'd command a very steep price if I did...even if he does play for the Chiefs. I probably should have him higher because I doubt I'd deal him for a guy like Laveranues Coles (but that all goes back to who else is on your roster and how much you need to rely on Laveranues on a weekly basis).
Regarding Edwards, check out Jauron's press conference on the Bills website. About midway through the conference he starts to talk about Edwards and you practically see the excitement in his eyes. I have a hunch that this team knows what they have in Edwards. That said, I get the impression that Losman is fairly highly-regarded in NFL circles, so I do think the decision is tougher than it might look to outsiders.
Hines Ward is a gamer and one of the toughest players in the NFL. I don't see him fading for another 2-4 years. But Holmes is only 23 and he really makes some great plays. I think he's going to have a strong career. Is he a top 10 type? Nope, but he should be a top 20-25 guy for the next few years and he does have some upside once Ward finally fades away.
As for Bowe, I agree that trading for him will be almost impossible right now. His value shot through the roof today. If you want to target him, the best thing to do is wait until he has a couple dud weeks in a row. Then try to make a move.
Mark Clayton is another decent buy right now. He doesn't have the upside of Holmes or Bowe, but his price tag should be quite a bit lower. I still expect him to develop into a pretty good player in the Derrick Mason mold.
Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)
Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
i'm assuming you think Gore will do something of note against the Ravens defense?
I see you dropped Laurent Robinson a tad. Did you notice that he drew two flags on deep passes last week? I think he's going to have a break-out game very soon.
QUOTE (TaxMan @ Oct 6 2007, 11:17 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)
Last chance to buy these guys on the discount rank. In emulation of Ronnie Brown, I think the following players recoup appreciable dynasty value this weekend:
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
QB - Drew Brees vs. Carolina
RB - Reggie Bush vs. Carolina
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew @ Kansas City
RB - Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
WR - Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis
WR - Lee Evans vs. Dallas
WR - Marques Colston vs. Carolina
WR - Mark Clayton @ San Francisco
WR - Drew Bennett vs. Arizona
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
TE - Chris Cooley vs. Detroit
i'm assuming you think Gore will do something of note against the Ravens defense?
Sure. He's Frank Gore, and he's due. The Ravens defense isn't as stout as they've been in the past. I could see about 120-150 total yards with a TD or two.
QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 6 2007, 12:39 PM)
I see you dropped Laurent Robinson a tad. Did you notice that he drew two flags on deep passes last week? I think he's going to have a break-out game very soon.
I probably should have kept him where he was. I moved guys like Derrick Mason & Shaun McDonald ahead of him because bye weeks and injuries are hitting rosters pretty hard right now, and those guys have been very reliable as starter-level receivers. Plus, Roddy White has emerged as the clear #1 in Atlanta. But still, if you can afford to carry Robinson, he's probably worth more to you. No doubt the talent is there.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 09:37 AM)
WR - Devery Henderson vs. Carolina
Really? I see him being closer to being on the outs there than productivity.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 6 2007, 02:22 PM)
QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 6 2007, 12:39 PM)
I see you dropped Laurent Robinson a tad. Did you notice that he drew two flags on deep passes last week? I think he's going to have a break-out game very soon.
I probably should have kept him where he was. I moved guys like Derrick Mason & Shaun McDonald ahead of him because bye weeks and injuries are hitting rosters pretty hard right now, and those guys have been very reliable as starter-level receivers. Plus, Roddy White has emerged as the clear #1 in Atlanta. But still, if you can afford to carry Robinson, he's probably worth more to you. No doubt the talent is there.
Gotya. I do think White's success might be related more to situation than talent. It seems that Petrino's philosophy is catching teams by surprise and the #1 is going to benefit, which happens to White right now.
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