QUOTE (djb916420 @ Nov 1 2006, 02:29 PM) 
good posting, glad to see someone else's point of view. However I have to disagree on Julius Jones at #23 and Reggie wayne at #11, also Mike Vick at #9. I think after last weeks performances vick is easily top 5, wayne is easily top 5 and juilus is top 15. Keep up the good work . 
Thank you. The list at the top hasn't yet been updated after this past week's games. Some of it will change.
QUOTE (Donnybrook @ Nov 1 2006, 11:42 AM)
Mike Bell is way too low. I believe he is playing on a 1 year contract with Denver and has shown enough to get re-signed there or elsewhere. Definitely more value than a 32 year old Mike Anderson at this point.
I agree. The rankings above are still last week's rankings. Mike Bell is definitely a riser. This past game was the first extensive look I've gotten at Bell's running. He'll move up significantly. Rightly or wrongly, I was behind Tatum Bell going into last week's game. I'll have to revisit that situation.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 03:18 PM)
QUOTE (JetsWillWin @ Nov 1 2006, 03:14 PM)
QUOTE
12 Drew Brees NO
I don't get this ranking at all.
So where would you have him?
Is this thread about my rankings or yours? I was looking for why you have him so low.
But since you asked:
QUARTERBACKS
1 Peyton Manning IND
2 Donovan McNabb PHI
3 Carson Palmer CIN
4 Eli Manning NYG
5. Michael Vick ATL
6 Marc Bulger STL
7 Drew Brees NOS
8 Tom Brady NE
9 Matt Hasselbeck SEA
10 Matt Leinart ARI
Bumped: Leftwich, Roethlisberger
Brees is having his 3rd great year in a row - completing over 64% of his passess for the 3rd year in a row, but more imporantly, he's a top 7th scoring QB in standard scoring leagues - he was also top 8 or 9 the past two seasons. He's young, 27 years old, approaching the time at which QB's historically peak - he has the breakout rookie WR of the season in Colston, Horn for another year or two, as well as a solid RB with Deuce and the best receiving RB in the NFL already in Reggie Bush. There are obviously no lingering affects from his shoulder surgery, and he's on a young, up and coming team.
I don't really see what's not to like - I could see having Brady/Hass ahead of him I GUESS - Brady I have slightly lower than most because I think he'll remain susceptable to the fantasy slumps he's had until this past week - he's not a guy that has to get 3 TDs for his team to win a game. Hasselbeck is right around there, but he's also 4 years older than Brees.
So - what I mean is - why do you have him so low?
QUOTE (Cowboys#1 @ Nov 1 2006, 02:56 PM)
i am having a lot of trouble fatcoring future progress into dynasty rankings, i know its a common theme but lets look at wr's smith, fitz, chad and holt are the top 4.. is fitz the one to have because hes younger, is chad better than holt because hes younger??
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
at what point do you say forget their ages and get the guy who will do the best for the next 2 years?
I try not to look too much further than 3 years into the future. I'm in a dynasty/contract league and I only have one player on my team who I've had for more than 3 years and only a few others that are in their third year on my team. A lot of dynasty teams look different today than they did two years ago. So, while age is important, you have to consider the fact that you probably aren't going to just sit on that player for 10 years. Heck, your league may not even be a dynasty league in 5 years; you may have evolved into something else.
You should change your league rules. You play a 17 week season and then play your playoffs when the real teams do and this is a dynasty league? 
QUOTE (lord_helmet @ Oct 29 2006, 05:03 AM)
I would move up Housh to around the same ranking as Wayne, both are in similar situations playing for strong passing offenses complimented by great WR1s and premier QBs
Housh is a nice player but he isn't in Wayne's league yet.
QUOTE (JetsWillWin @ Nov 1 2006, 03:28 PM)
So - what I mean is - why do you have him so low?
Personal preference?
I don't think 5 spots is a huge difference. You'll certainly cause me to think long and hard on Drew Brees, but here's where I see it:
profootballreference.com had Brees as the #11 overall QB in 2004 and #8 last season. You have him at #7 while I have him at #12, so I don't see either of us as far off based on past production.
The Saints have played more than their fair share of shootouts this season. I think there's a bit of a fluky nature to Brees' numbers so far this season. If you're a Brees owner, and you've started him regularly this season, you're probably reaping the reward. In both of my dynasty leagues, the Brees owner has left those points on the bench most weeks. Now I'm not saying Brees should be punished because some of his owners were less than brilliant. What I am saying is that even many Brees owners believe his production to be a bit on the fluky this season. I don't see him as a true franchise fantasy QB -- now or in the future -- and it appears that some of his owners have even felt the same way.
We'll see how the season plays out. I don't think Brees will stay this hot, but I will sit down and take a deeper look at it.
QUOTE (Liquid Tension @ Nov 1 2006, 03:38 PM)
You should change your league rules. You play a 17 week season and then play your playoffs when the real teams do and this is a dynasty league?
Oh, you have the Official Fantasy Football Playoff Rulebook? I've been looking all over for that thing.
OK, smart guy, I've already explained the reasons why I think a playoff-included league is far superior. Let's hear a refutation of those reasons and a supporting argument for stopping at week 16 and going golfing while the best football games are being played.
Okay.
RUNNINGBACKS RISING:
Joseph Addai – While not explosive, he is well-rounded, reliable and clearly a better talent than Dominic Rhodes. I don’t think Rhodes will be completely out of the picture this year barring injury, but it looks like Addai will keep taking a bit more of the responsibility each week. I know I don’t have to tell anybody here that the starting RB for the Colts is a valuable fantasy commodity, especially in playoff leagues.
Ahman Green – Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. My favorite RB sleeper heading into this season still has plenty left in the tank with the obvious and important caveat of now firmly residing in the injury-prone portion of his career. Ahman is still the goal-line back, is used heavily in the passing game and still has gamebreaking speed as evidenced by his 70 yard TD run two weeks ago and his season average of 4.53 ypc.
Jamal Lewis – Though part of his resurgence last week was due to the nature of the game after the Ravens jumped to an early lead, it does appear that Billick will make a concerted effort to put the rock in Lewis’ hands. More importantly, if last week’s game is any indication, Musa Smith & Mike Anderson won’t be more than role-players going forward. No, Lewis isn’t back to 2003 form – and never will be again – but he ran noticeably harder against the Saints. Combine that with an easy schedule, a new RB friendly play-caller and the Ravens being a strong playoff contender, and Lewis gains back some of his lost value.
Mike Bell – I still believe that Tatum is Shanny’s boy going forward as long as he’s healthy. However, anyone who saw Mike Bell tearing through an admittedly porous Colts’ run defense had to come away impressed. He’s quicker than I thought, was cutting on a dime, and doesn’t go down easily. He could have plenty of value going forward in ’06 if Tatum’s turf toe(s) linger.
RUNNINGBACKS FALLING:
Reggie Bush – I’m having trouble with this one. I still believe in his talent, and I still believe he’s going to find the endzone. But the patience has to be wearing thin, especially for those is non-ppr leagues. Is it that he just needs to get into the open field more, and those opportunities haven’t been there yet? Is his ceiling still Faulk meets Sayers? Or would Brian Westbrook production now be seen as living up to the hype? I’m not sure exactly what we have here, but it’s pretty clear that I had him too high last week.
Tatum Bell – I realize that blank-eyed belief in Shanny’s RB proclamations have left many a fantasy season in the wake, but I do believe a healthy Tatum Bell is Shannahan’s guy going forward. Still, turf toes can be an ongoing issue and a production drain. Just as importantly, Mike Bell’s impressive running will give the Broncos a valid reason not to push Tatum back into the lineup. There is certainly valid concern over Tatum’s dynasty value going forward.
Cadillac Williams – The injury-prone whispers have been there since the beginning. What’s more disappointing is that Pittman is still stealing 3rd downs and Alstott is still stealing goal-line work. The biggest problem, however, remains Tampa’s repulsive offense, from the league worst QB play to the poor O-line and the lack of gamebreakers on the edges. Change can happen in a hurry in the NFL, but that offense is sunk for the year 2006.
Edgerrin James – Remember how poorly Jamal Lewis ran last season? He averaged 3.4 yards per carry. That’s downright Dickersonian compared to Edge’s 2006 average of 2.8. Edge spun the wheel this offseason, and now he’s found himself tumbling down the rabbit hole in Arizona. I’d be lying if I said I can read the tea leaves with the future of this franchise. They’re oozing talent at the skill positions on offense, but their line play has been horrendous, and the coaching staff is up in the air. At the end of the day, it’s still a woebegone Bidwell operation.
DeShaun Foster – He’s just not that good of a football player. I don’t know how you can break it down any more simply than that. I never understood how an injury-riddled RB with 6 career TDs in over 500 rushing attempts going into the season could have been so highly regarded. Much like his sister-city over in WR Land, Brandon Lloyd, the occasional spectacular play doesn’t mask the fact that he brings little else to the table. If Carolina is going to rebound in the 2nd half to make the playoffs, DeAngelo Williams is going to have to play a major role in the running game.
Joseph Addai – While not explosive, he is well-rounded, reliable and clearly a better talent than Dominic Rhodes. I don’t think Rhodes will be completely out of the picture this year barring injury, but it looks like Addai will keep taking a bit more of the responsibility each week. I know I don’t have to tell anybody here that the starting RB for the Colts is a valuable fantasy commodity, especially in playoff leagues.
Ahman Green – Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. My favorite RB sleeper heading into this season still has plenty left in the tank with the obvious and important caveat of now firmly residing in the injury-prone portion of his career. Ahman is still the goal-line back, is used heavily in the passing game and still has gamebreaking speed as evidenced by his 70 yard TD run two weeks ago and his season average of 4.53 ypc.
Jamal Lewis – Though part of his resurgence last week was due to the nature of the game after the Ravens jumped to an early lead, it does appear that Billick will make a concerted effort to put the rock in Lewis’ hands. More importantly, if last week’s game is any indication, Musa Smith & Mike Anderson won’t be more than role-players going forward. No, Lewis isn’t back to 2003 form – and never will be again – but he ran noticeably harder against the Saints. Combine that with an easy schedule, a new RB friendly play-caller and the Ravens being a strong playoff contender, and Lewis gains back some of his lost value.
Mike Bell – I still believe that Tatum is Shanny’s boy going forward as long as he’s healthy. However, anyone who saw Mike Bell tearing through an admittedly porous Colts’ run defense had to come away impressed. He’s quicker than I thought, was cutting on a dime, and doesn’t go down easily. He could have plenty of value going forward in ’06 if Tatum’s turf toe(s) linger.
RUNNINGBACKS FALLING:
Reggie Bush – I’m having trouble with this one. I still believe in his talent, and I still believe he’s going to find the endzone. But the patience has to be wearing thin, especially for those is non-ppr leagues. Is it that he just needs to get into the open field more, and those opportunities haven’t been there yet? Is his ceiling still Faulk meets Sayers? Or would Brian Westbrook production now be seen as living up to the hype? I’m not sure exactly what we have here, but it’s pretty clear that I had him too high last week.
Tatum Bell – I realize that blank-eyed belief in Shanny’s RB proclamations have left many a fantasy season in the wake, but I do believe a healthy Tatum Bell is Shannahan’s guy going forward. Still, turf toes can be an ongoing issue and a production drain. Just as importantly, Mike Bell’s impressive running will give the Broncos a valid reason not to push Tatum back into the lineup. There is certainly valid concern over Tatum’s dynasty value going forward.
Cadillac Williams – The injury-prone whispers have been there since the beginning. What’s more disappointing is that Pittman is still stealing 3rd downs and Alstott is still stealing goal-line work. The biggest problem, however, remains Tampa’s repulsive offense, from the league worst QB play to the poor O-line and the lack of gamebreakers on the edges. Change can happen in a hurry in the NFL, but that offense is sunk for the year 2006.
Edgerrin James – Remember how poorly Jamal Lewis ran last season? He averaged 3.4 yards per carry. That’s downright Dickersonian compared to Edge’s 2006 average of 2.8. Edge spun the wheel this offseason, and now he’s found himself tumbling down the rabbit hole in Arizona. I’d be lying if I said I can read the tea leaves with the future of this franchise. They’re oozing talent at the skill positions on offense, but their line play has been horrendous, and the coaching staff is up in the air. At the end of the day, it’s still a woebegone Bidwell operation.
DeShaun Foster – He’s just not that good of a football player. I don’t know how you can break it down any more simply than that. I never understood how an injury-riddled RB with 6 career TDs in over 500 rushing attempts going into the season could have been so highly regarded. Much like his sister-city over in WR Land, Brandon Lloyd, the occasional spectacular play doesn’t mask the fact that he brings little else to the table. If Carolina is going to rebound in the 2nd half to make the playoffs, DeAngelo Williams is going to have to play a major role in the running game.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 06:30 PM)
Ahman Green – Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. My favorite RB sleeper heading into this season still has plenty left in the tank with the obvious and important caveat of now firmly residing in the injury-prone portion of his career. Ahman is still the goal-line back, is used heavily in the passing game and still has gamebreaking speed as evidenced by his 70 yard TD run two weeks ago and his season average of 4.53 ypc.
What do you see for your favorite RB sleeper in 07?
I think Bush is still what he was coming into the league - the problem is lots of people thought he was the equvalent of inventing sliced bread & the wheel while discovering fire.
He's a great receving back and returner who can run. He's on a team with a sub-par D, and good WR's that has a RB to share carries with.
Do you guys really think dynasty value changes that much week-to-week on so many players? Other than the Bells, I don't see a ton of change this week at RB in those players listed.
He's a great receving back and returner who can run. He's on a team with a sub-par D, and good WR's that has a RB to share carries with.
Do you guys really think dynasty value changes that much week-to-week on so many players? Other than the Bells, I don't see a ton of change this week at RB in those players listed.
QUOTE (Sigmund Bloom @ Nov 1 2006, 06:35 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 06:30 PM)
Ahman Green – Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. My favorite RB sleeper heading into this season still has plenty left in the tank with the obvious and important caveat of now firmly residing in the injury-prone portion of his career. Ahman is still the goal-line back, is used heavily in the passing game and still has gamebreaking speed as evidenced by his 70 yard TD run two weeks ago and his season average of 4.53 ypc.
What do you see for your favorite RB sleeper in 07?
Would it be more accurate to call him my favorite RB sleeper heading into this past offseason (as opposed to heading into the '06 season)? Probably. I had hoped Carolina or Indy would make him their savvy offseason addition, and that was originally a big part of why I valued him much more highly than most after last season. I still traded for him in both leagues even after he had to resort to sticking with talent-starved, going-nowhere GB...but I would have preferred a better team with a more RB friendly offense.
As far as '07 goes, I think it's too early to have much of a read on Ahman's value. He's a free agent again after the season, no? I think much depends on how the rest of '06 plays out in Green Bay. Much like the previous few seasons, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Favre will retire. As long as he's the QB, I think Green can retain plenty of value. I'd be a lot more concerned about an offense with unknown and possibly untrustworthy Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking. That's assuming Ahman signs in GB again.
Worst case scenario: Favre retires, Green re-signs with Packers, Rodgers takes the GB offense into the tank and Green's value with it.
Worst case scenario x2: Green signs on as the veteran half of a tandem for a RB-needy team with a poor offensive line, a greenhorn QB and recently drafted young RB...such as maybe Cleveland.
Best case scenario: Ravens ditch Lewis and sign Ahman Green to be their everydown workhorse with Mike Anderson and/or Musa Smith around simply to break glass in case of emergency or give him a breather.
QUOTE (stevegamer @ Nov 1 2006, 06:47 PM)
Do you guys really think dynasty value changes that much week-to-week on so many players? Other than the Bells, I don't see a ton of change this week at RB in those players listed.
I'm beginning to realize that you guys are going to have to throw me a bone on a couple of factors in these rankings. I was under the impression that many dynasty leagues use the NFL playoffs as their league's playoffs. It appears that I was wrong on that one. In playoff leagues, even dynasty values can fluctuate from week to week because of the strategy involved...not nearly to the extent of redraft leagues of course.
I do these rankings as much for my own teams' sake as anything. If I'm flipping rosters around in my head Sunday evening / Monday morning trying to figure out a move that could help me this week or down the road, I'm going to come across players on whom I'm souring or players I'm now targeting.
Putting this info down here is just a way to sort through the chaos of a long season. My rankings may change from week to week (though I don't see this "Dynasty Rising/Falling" as an every week project), but that doesn't mean anybody else's should.
WIDE RECEIVERS RISING:
Reggie Wayne – I’ve never been the biggest Reggie Wayne fan, but after last week’s 2nd half tormenting of Darrent Williams I’ll admit that I probably should have had him a couple spots higher. Like I said earlier, as long as he’s in Indy with Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison, he’s going to have plenty of value.
Marques Colston – The Randy Moss comparison are ludicrous, of course, but Colston certainly merits top 20 consideration after another monstrous game in a pass-happy comeback attempt. He’ll continue to be inconsistent, but he’s proven to be a playmaker as well as a favorite target of Drew Brees.
Joe Horn – If you’re ranking by tiers or categories, Horn has been grouped along with other veterans like Muhsin Muhammad, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Eddie Kennison, Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce & Amani Toomer. I see him as a better option than any of those WRs save Muhammad. Sure he’s 35 years old, but he can still be help your team win as your 3rd WR.
Chris Henry – Truly one of the top talents at WR in the NFL, I’ve had Henry down in the rankings because of his status as 3rd WR and his well-publicized run-ins with the law. Would it surprise anyone if he was arrested tonight for driving drunk while getting serviced by the 15-year-old daughter of a local minister and carrying his “friend’s” weed under the seat? Still, with his talent level, better to carry him and his baggage on your roster than an Eddie Kennison or Amani Toomer.
Kevin Curtis – Looking around the league, it’s been a down year for 3rd WRs. I was going to say that he should be up there with Chris Henry amongst the league’s best 3rd WRs, but Henry and Wes Welker are really the only ones producing. Curtis’ value has taken a hit with the move from Martz to Linehan, but I believe he’s a RFA after this season. He’s talented enough to start for several teams.
WIDE RECEIVERS FALLING:
Reggie Brown – The go-to-WR in McNabb’s offense is always going to have value, but Stallworth’s return dampens Brown’s value and raises the issue of who is McNabb’s go-to-guy. If they’re both in the lineup, I think it’s Stallworth more often than Brown. How long will Stallworth be around? He’s signed thru next season.
Terry Glenn – Glenn was Bledsoe’s safety blanket, but Romo clearly looks more for T.O. and Witten. Unfortunately, this QB change means the difference between Glenn being a very solid 3rd WR for your team and being unstartable. I’d be selling him for draft picks if possible.
Reggie Williams – He’s still raw, and he still makes rookie mistakes. Though he was a factor with Jones out of the lineup and Wilford not producing, he’s taken a step back the past couple of weeks. I still believe Jones is the young Jags WR to own in a dynasty league.
Reggie Wayne – I’ve never been the biggest Reggie Wayne fan, but after last week’s 2nd half tormenting of Darrent Williams I’ll admit that I probably should have had him a couple spots higher. Like I said earlier, as long as he’s in Indy with Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison, he’s going to have plenty of value.
Marques Colston – The Randy Moss comparison are ludicrous, of course, but Colston certainly merits top 20 consideration after another monstrous game in a pass-happy comeback attempt. He’ll continue to be inconsistent, but he’s proven to be a playmaker as well as a favorite target of Drew Brees.
Joe Horn – If you’re ranking by tiers or categories, Horn has been grouped along with other veterans like Muhsin Muhammad, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Eddie Kennison, Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce & Amani Toomer. I see him as a better option than any of those WRs save Muhammad. Sure he’s 35 years old, but he can still be help your team win as your 3rd WR.
Chris Henry – Truly one of the top talents at WR in the NFL, I’ve had Henry down in the rankings because of his status as 3rd WR and his well-publicized run-ins with the law. Would it surprise anyone if he was arrested tonight for driving drunk while getting serviced by the 15-year-old daughter of a local minister and carrying his “friend’s” weed under the seat? Still, with his talent level, better to carry him and his baggage on your roster than an Eddie Kennison or Amani Toomer.
Kevin Curtis – Looking around the league, it’s been a down year for 3rd WRs. I was going to say that he should be up there with Chris Henry amongst the league’s best 3rd WRs, but Henry and Wes Welker are really the only ones producing. Curtis’ value has taken a hit with the move from Martz to Linehan, but I believe he’s a RFA after this season. He’s talented enough to start for several teams.
WIDE RECEIVERS FALLING:
Reggie Brown – The go-to-WR in McNabb’s offense is always going to have value, but Stallworth’s return dampens Brown’s value and raises the issue of who is McNabb’s go-to-guy. If they’re both in the lineup, I think it’s Stallworth more often than Brown. How long will Stallworth be around? He’s signed thru next season.
Terry Glenn – Glenn was Bledsoe’s safety blanket, but Romo clearly looks more for T.O. and Witten. Unfortunately, this QB change means the difference between Glenn being a very solid 3rd WR for your team and being unstartable. I’d be selling him for draft picks if possible.
Reggie Williams – He’s still raw, and he still makes rookie mistakes. Though he was a factor with Jones out of the lineup and Wilford not producing, he’s taken a step back the past couple of weeks. I still believe Jones is the young Jags WR to own in a dynasty league.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 10:29 PM)
Reggie Williams – He’s still raw, and he still makes rookie mistakes. Though he was a factor with Jones out of the lineup and Wilford not producing, he’s taken a step back the past couple of weeks. I still believe Jones is the young Jags WR to own in a dynasty league.
Matt Jones would be a pretty nice pickup in a dynasty league right now. I doubt his value will ever be lower.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 10:29 PM)
Kevin Curtis – Looking around the league, it’s been a down year for 3rd WRs. I was going to say that he should be up there with Chris Henry amongst the league’s best 3rd WRs, but Henry and Wes Welker are really the only ones producing. Curtis’ value has taken a hit with the move from Martz to Linehan, but I believe he’s a RFA after this season. He’s talented enough to start for several teams.
Kevin Curtis was a RFA coming in to this season. He was given a 1st round tender and is making 1.57 M this season. If he doesn't sign a new contract with the Rams, he will be free agent at the end of the season.
Brees - 24/32, 314 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
QUOTE (JetsWillWin @ Nov 5 2006, 04:56 PM)
Brees - 24/32, 314 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
I knew this was coming...
And you're right. I should have had Drew Brees higher. I should have had Colston higher too.
At the very least I'm going to move Brees up to #9, but it may be closer to the #7 that you suggested. He's definitely in the thick of the Vick/Eli/Hasselbeck/Bulger tier.
Other than Brees & Colston, who's looking better? Who looks worse?
BETTER:
Tony Romo - two in a row
David Garrard - looks like the new starter...for now
Damon Huard - it's going to be tough to go back to Green; will Huard get a chance to start elsewhere in '07?
Ronnie Brown - 150+ on the Bears; has the talent, needs the rest of the O to catch up
Kevin Jones - looks like the real deal; as a fantasy football owner, I think I'd follow Martz into hell
Javon Walker - looks 100% recovered to me; Broncos passing game looking better
Mark Clayton - ready to overtake Mason as WR1?
Kevin Curtis - two very productive games in a row
Ernest Wilford - Garrard looks for him more than Leftwich did
Devery Henderson - needs Horn out of the lineup to produce
Tony Gonzalez - back to old times in the redzone
WORSE
Byron Leftwich - when will he get his job back?
Rex Grossman - still not convinced; still believe there will be a Griese sighting later this year
Reggie Bush - great in the passing game, god-awful running the ball
Willis McGahee - how long is he out? still only one TD
Cadillac Williams - terrible offense, non-existant rushing attack; how long will you wait on him?
Derrick Mason - no longer a prime focus in the offense
Roddy White - Lelie has taken over #2
Eric Moulds - thought his talent would come to light in Houston; it's all Andre Johnson all the time
sorry I haven't read the whole post but why no love for my boy Gradkowski? He can only get better right? At least bump him a spot in front of simms... 
Rankings updated as of 11/8/06.
I would also like to point out the acumen of the following:
EBF was right about Kevin Jones. I've moved him up several spots since he pointed out that Jones was too low and Bush was too high. EBF was also a voice of reason on rookie rankings in general.
JetsWillWin had me on Drew Brees. After some discussion, some research and a great game against TB, I've moved Brees up to his rightful spot in the top 8.
Mimo was on the right track with Reggie Wayne. Though I can't put him in the top 5 WR, I did move him up a couple of spots.
perry147 and The U corrected my oversight on Julius Jones. I hadn't realized the numbers he was putting up were still pretty impressive even with Barber stealing his 3rd down work and goal-line work.
Also, thanks to Sigmund Bloom and the others who have raised salient points. I realize that I am very strong-minded in my beliefs, and I try to give a detailed explanation when questioned on specific players. After all, having a good read on players and their situations is the only way to succeed in dynasty. However, I do try to stay open-minded when presented with evidence that trumps my own judgment.
I would also like to point out the acumen of the following:
EBF was right about Kevin Jones. I've moved him up several spots since he pointed out that Jones was too low and Bush was too high. EBF was also a voice of reason on rookie rankings in general.
JetsWillWin had me on Drew Brees. After some discussion, some research and a great game against TB, I've moved Brees up to his rightful spot in the top 8.
Mimo was on the right track with Reggie Wayne. Though I can't put him in the top 5 WR, I did move him up a couple of spots.
perry147 and The U corrected my oversight on Julius Jones. I hadn't realized the numbers he was putting up were still pretty impressive even with Barber stealing his 3rd down work and goal-line work.
Also, thanks to Sigmund Bloom and the others who have raised salient points. I realize that I am very strong-minded in my beliefs, and I try to give a detailed explanation when questioned on specific players. After all, having a good read on players and their situations is the only way to succeed in dynasty. However, I do try to stay open-minded when presented with evidence that trumps my own judgment.
Updated the rankings Thursday 11/8; added a few more tweaks here and there today.
Have at it.
Have at it.
DYNASTY TARGETS FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON:
1. Ben Roethlisberger – The motorcycle accident, the interceptions streak, the string of losses and the Steelers’ offensive philosophy under Bettis & Cowher have dominated the recent conversation on Roethlisberger’s value. These negatives, however, all are transitory phenomena. They’ll be fading in the rear view mirror by next season. When the detritus of the '06 season is forgotten, what remains will be the ultra-talented young QB who entered the league a play-making stud, threw up 98+ QB ratings in his first two NFL seasons and began his career with a 27-4 record and a Super Bowl championship. If you’re lucky enough to have Roethlisberger on your roster, hold on tightly. He’s only going to get better.
2. DeAngelo Williams – The Panthers are too talent-laden to miss the playoffs in a weak NFC, and John Fox is too good of a coach to let a poor running game stand in the way. Despite DeShaun Foster’s status as the current starting RB, the truth is he’s more stop-gap veteran than potential difference maker. Foster just isn’t good enough to sustain the Panthers running game, and John Fox knows this. It’s why he stayed too long with a clearly washed up Stephen Davis, dropped a valuable 2nd round pick on Eric Shelton only to turn around a year later and make RB a top priority again with the 1st round selection of DeAngelo Williams. Does this sound like a man who has faith in DeShaun Foster? DeAngelo Williams is a stronger runner, a more explosive back and a better football player. If the Panthers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they’re going to have to do it behind a stronger running game featuring DeAngelo Williams. Once he gets more reps under his belt and a feel for the pace of the NFL, he’s going to bust out.
3. Lee Evans – In his rookie year, with a poor QB, Evans was the Bills’ best deep threat. It gets better. He was also their best possession WR, first down maker and redzone weapon. Last season, playing in an offense sunk by the alternating QB vortex of Holcomb & Losman, Evans managed to put up seven TDs…and that was with Holcomb’s eyes locked onto Eric Moulds the whole game. Evans is putting up similar numbers this year, even in another season of the QB holding the offense hostage. What has owners sleeping on Evans early this season is nothing more than a minor touchdown slump, something that will fix itself in the 2nd half. Evans is the kind of talent you can get excited about keeping on your roster even if he doesn’t see your starting lineup on a regular basis. With his playmaking ability, a bump even to mediocrity at QB could turn him into a borderline top 10 WR.
4. Matt Leinart – With the return of Larry Fitzgerald, Leinart now has his full arsenal of weapons available. There is no more explosive WR duo in the league than Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and for all the grief Edgerrin James has exposed himself to with his poor ypc average, he’s still a good receiver out of the backfield. Sure, there are major concerns about the offensive line, the future of the coaching staff and the Cardinals organization itself. If there weren’t, you wouldn’t be able to sneak in and get an upper-shelf talent like Leinart at a discounted price before he comes on strong in the 2nd half of the season. Leinart is the type of highly touted rookie who will learn on the job, take his lumps, become a statistical stud by his 2nd season and continue to improve every year.
5. Tatum Bell – Even after averaging 5.0 per carry over his first three seasons, there are still major questions about Bell’s game. Will Shannahan ever choose one RB and stick with him? A few weeks ago, he went beyond his usual histrionics and declared Tatum his unquestioned starter. Will Tatum’s inside running improve? Will he improve on his blocking and receiving ability? If not, will he be replaced on 3rd downs and at the goal-line? I don’t know, and I wonder if Shannahan even knows. Bell is a risky acquisition, but I believe he’s a good risk right now especially if you can get him at a bargain price coming off the turf toe injuries and Mike Bell’s impressive play against the Colts. Despite his injuries and spotty playing time, Tatum is still on pace for over 1200 yards this season. The talent is there as evidenced by his playmaking ability and his gaudy yards per carry average. If you pull the trigger, you may drive yourself crazy worrying about the lack of touchdowns and Shannahan’s shenanigans. On the other hand, this may be one of those all too infrequent times where you can pry away an elite RB talent from his disillusioned owner. If you're not a riverboat gambler, look elsewhere. But if your style is to roll the dice on elite talent, this is your man.
6. Byron Leftwich – Leftwich is a true franchise QB who has had his hands tied in a run-first offense with subpar WRs and bottom of the barrel tight-ends. Everybody likes to point out the size of the young Jacksonville WRs like this was the frontline of the ’86 Celtics. They’re football players! What matters is whether they can catch the ball and make plays, not how tall they are. Throughout his NFL toddler-hood, Jimmy Smith was the only reliable receiver Leftwich has had at his disposal…and even Jimmy had his fair share of the dropsies. At this point Matt Jones is still high on potential and low on results, Reggie Williams is still inconsistent and prone to mental vacations, Ernest Wilford is a mediocre NFL talent, and Marcedes Lewis has yet to make an impact. The point is that even after four years in the league, we still haven’t seen Leftwich in an open offense with reliable weapons. Now that David Garrard has a chance to put his stamp on this team, Leftwich may become the primary trade target for QB-starved franchises such as the Washington Redskins or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Granted, Leftwich is still a QB waiting to take that next step, but he has a few things working for him: he’s smart, accurate, has a big arm and makes few mistakes with the ball. Even better, he has shown a knack -- first in college and then early in his NFL career -- for making big plays late in the game. Conventional wisdom has many people writing off Leftwich because he hasn’t come through for them on their timetable. But make no mistake - if he lands in an offensive system more tailored to his strengths, Byron Leftwich is going to put up big numbers.
Hopefully more to come if I can find the time. I'd like to do a writeup on the following:
Ronnie Brown
Matt Jones
Chad Jackson
Drew Bennett
Kevin Curtis
Cedric Benson
David Carr
Braylon Edwards
Najeh Davenport
Brian Griese
1. Ben Roethlisberger – The motorcycle accident, the interceptions streak, the string of losses and the Steelers’ offensive philosophy under Bettis & Cowher have dominated the recent conversation on Roethlisberger’s value. These negatives, however, all are transitory phenomena. They’ll be fading in the rear view mirror by next season. When the detritus of the '06 season is forgotten, what remains will be the ultra-talented young QB who entered the league a play-making stud, threw up 98+ QB ratings in his first two NFL seasons and began his career with a 27-4 record and a Super Bowl championship. If you’re lucky enough to have Roethlisberger on your roster, hold on tightly. He’s only going to get better.
2. DeAngelo Williams – The Panthers are too talent-laden to miss the playoffs in a weak NFC, and John Fox is too good of a coach to let a poor running game stand in the way. Despite DeShaun Foster’s status as the current starting RB, the truth is he’s more stop-gap veteran than potential difference maker. Foster just isn’t good enough to sustain the Panthers running game, and John Fox knows this. It’s why he stayed too long with a clearly washed up Stephen Davis, dropped a valuable 2nd round pick on Eric Shelton only to turn around a year later and make RB a top priority again with the 1st round selection of DeAngelo Williams. Does this sound like a man who has faith in DeShaun Foster? DeAngelo Williams is a stronger runner, a more explosive back and a better football player. If the Panthers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they’re going to have to do it behind a stronger running game featuring DeAngelo Williams. Once he gets more reps under his belt and a feel for the pace of the NFL, he’s going to bust out.
3. Lee Evans – In his rookie year, with a poor QB, Evans was the Bills’ best deep threat. It gets better. He was also their best possession WR, first down maker and redzone weapon. Last season, playing in an offense sunk by the alternating QB vortex of Holcomb & Losman, Evans managed to put up seven TDs…and that was with Holcomb’s eyes locked onto Eric Moulds the whole game. Evans is putting up similar numbers this year, even in another season of the QB holding the offense hostage. What has owners sleeping on Evans early this season is nothing more than a minor touchdown slump, something that will fix itself in the 2nd half. Evans is the kind of talent you can get excited about keeping on your roster even if he doesn’t see your starting lineup on a regular basis. With his playmaking ability, a bump even to mediocrity at QB could turn him into a borderline top 10 WR.
4. Matt Leinart – With the return of Larry Fitzgerald, Leinart now has his full arsenal of weapons available. There is no more explosive WR duo in the league than Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and for all the grief Edgerrin James has exposed himself to with his poor ypc average, he’s still a good receiver out of the backfield. Sure, there are major concerns about the offensive line, the future of the coaching staff and the Cardinals organization itself. If there weren’t, you wouldn’t be able to sneak in and get an upper-shelf talent like Leinart at a discounted price before he comes on strong in the 2nd half of the season. Leinart is the type of highly touted rookie who will learn on the job, take his lumps, become a statistical stud by his 2nd season and continue to improve every year.
5. Tatum Bell – Even after averaging 5.0 per carry over his first three seasons, there are still major questions about Bell’s game. Will Shannahan ever choose one RB and stick with him? A few weeks ago, he went beyond his usual histrionics and declared Tatum his unquestioned starter. Will Tatum’s inside running improve? Will he improve on his blocking and receiving ability? If not, will he be replaced on 3rd downs and at the goal-line? I don’t know, and I wonder if Shannahan even knows. Bell is a risky acquisition, but I believe he’s a good risk right now especially if you can get him at a bargain price coming off the turf toe injuries and Mike Bell’s impressive play against the Colts. Despite his injuries and spotty playing time, Tatum is still on pace for over 1200 yards this season. The talent is there as evidenced by his playmaking ability and his gaudy yards per carry average. If you pull the trigger, you may drive yourself crazy worrying about the lack of touchdowns and Shannahan’s shenanigans. On the other hand, this may be one of those all too infrequent times where you can pry away an elite RB talent from his disillusioned owner. If you're not a riverboat gambler, look elsewhere. But if your style is to roll the dice on elite talent, this is your man.
6. Byron Leftwich – Leftwich is a true franchise QB who has had his hands tied in a run-first offense with subpar WRs and bottom of the barrel tight-ends. Everybody likes to point out the size of the young Jacksonville WRs like this was the frontline of the ’86 Celtics. They’re football players! What matters is whether they can catch the ball and make plays, not how tall they are. Throughout his NFL toddler-hood, Jimmy Smith was the only reliable receiver Leftwich has had at his disposal…and even Jimmy had his fair share of the dropsies. At this point Matt Jones is still high on potential and low on results, Reggie Williams is still inconsistent and prone to mental vacations, Ernest Wilford is a mediocre NFL talent, and Marcedes Lewis has yet to make an impact. The point is that even after four years in the league, we still haven’t seen Leftwich in an open offense with reliable weapons. Now that David Garrard has a chance to put his stamp on this team, Leftwich may become the primary trade target for QB-starved franchises such as the Washington Redskins or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Granted, Leftwich is still a QB waiting to take that next step, but he has a few things working for him: he’s smart, accurate, has a big arm and makes few mistakes with the ball. Even better, he has shown a knack -- first in college and then early in his NFL career -- for making big plays late in the game. Conventional wisdom has many people writing off Leftwich because he hasn’t come through for them on their timetable. But make no mistake - if he lands in an offensive system more tailored to his strengths, Byron Leftwich is going to put up big numbers.
Hopefully more to come if I can find the time. I'd like to do a writeup on the following:
Ronnie Brown
Matt Jones
Chad Jackson
Drew Bennett
Kevin Curtis
Cedric Benson
David Carr
Braylon Edwards
Najeh Davenport
Brian Griese
F&L - great continuing work here. Thanks for the efforts! I am looking forward to your Ronnie Brown thoughts as I have him in my dynasty league. I like what I see from him, but worried about the Ricky Williams possible return. Interested in your ideas (and others' ideas) on Ronnie on that. Keep up the work!
Nice job on the rankings. I agree with the vast majority of your takes.
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
QUOTE (HEhateME @ Nov 12 2006, 08:45 AM)
F&L - great continuing work here. Thanks for the efforts! I am looking forward to your Ronnie Brown thoughts as I have him in my dynasty league. I like what I see from him, but worried about the Ricky Williams possible return. Interested in your ideas (and others' ideas) on Ronnie on that. Keep up the work!
I don't have time to go indepth or do much research right now, but I'm not worried about Ricky Williams affecting Ronnie Brown's value...and that's one of the reasons I wanted to write about him. He's a little too obvious for this list considering his pedigree and big game against the Bears. But I don't know if everyone realizes just how good he is yet. He's a top 5 RB dynasty talent, and if your league's Ronnie Brown owner is at all worried about Ricky Williams, you should act fast.
Ronnie Brown is like Steven Jackson before him. The size, the talent, the speed, the pass catching ability -- it's all there. There are many things wrongs with this Dolphins offense, but Ronnie Brown isn't one of them. They would be foolish to start jerking around their future next season after the fine all-around game he's shown while stuck in a going-nowhere offense this season.
QUOTE (Londo @ Nov 12 2006, 10:16 AM)
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
I think FWP is undervalued as well. I wish I had the ammo to get him in my leagues.
QUOTE (Londo @ Nov 12 2006, 09:16 AM)
Nice job on the rankings. I agree with the vast majority of your takes.
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
I think FWP could be moved up a couple of spots, but I don't know yet if I'd put him in the top 10. Last year, I was all over Parker. I drafted him fairly early, started him quite often and ended up regretting that I parted with him to acquire a different playoff RB. In other words, I'm not somebody you have to convince about his talent.
However...I think he's always going to be one of those guys who is going to have to continually prove himself. They were very hesitant to give him goal-line and 3rd down carries last year even though they made him the starter. This year, they exhausted all other options again before handing the ball to FWP at the goal-line. If Bettis hadn't retired and Verron Haynes hadn't gotten injured, the same rules would apply this year.
I think here's where we would differ on his value: you believe he's going to be the every-down, game-breaking, pass-catching stud in the PIT backfield for years to come. I believe they're going to continue to work Najeh Davenport in this year to the point where FWP is no longer the goal-line back or the 3rd down back. I think that FWP has game-breaking speed and can put up 1300 rushing yards, but going foward he's not going to score a ton of TDs or be involved in the passing game like a Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown. Not to mention: this is Pittsburgh. They like their big, grinding RBs. That's always going to be there nagging me in the back of my head. When the weather gets nastier, they're going to find an excuse to work in a bigger back.
Just my .02
As someone pointed out earlier, it's tough to re-rank dynasty players on a weekly basis. You don't want one week's impressive play or disappointments to skew the value of the actual talent. However, as I've explained earlier, I'm going to revise these values weekly for my own benefit as it's one of the byproducts of participating in a playoff league. Just because I've dropped Eli Manning, that doesn't mean you should think less of him (I just happen to think he's as overrated as any player in the NFL). This is just a weekly gauge of where I stand on these players.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
Edit to add: Patrick Crayton jumps in at 60. I had him in there originally but must have erased him when I was moving players around.
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
Edit to add: Patrick Crayton jumps in at 60. I had him in there originally but must have erased him when I was moving players around.
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2006, 08:51 AM)
QUOTE (Londo @ Nov 12 2006, 09:16 AM)
Nice job on the rankings. I agree with the vast majority of your takes.
Personally, I think FWP has proven that he is a dynasty force. He is young, he is the primary runner on one of the most historically run-oriented teams in the league, and has proven he can get it done on passing plays, goal-line situations, and pretty much every other situation they have given it to him.
At the very least, I would have him in my top 10. Personally, I have him ranked at #6 for dynasty leagues.
I think FWP could be moved up a couple of spots, but I don't know yet if I'd put him in the top 10. Last year, I was all over Parker. I drafted him fairly early, started him quite often and ended up regretting that I parted with him to acquire a different playoff RB. In other words, I'm not somebody you have to convince about his talent.
However...I think he's always going to be one of those guys who is going to have to continually prove himself. They were very hesitant to give him goal-line and 3rd down carries last year even though they made him the starter. This year, they exhausted all other options again before handing the ball to FWP at the goal-line. If Bettis hadn't retired and Verron Haynes hadn't gotten injured, the same rules would apply this year.
I think here's where we would differ on his value: you believe he's going to be the every-down, game-breaking, pass-catching stud in the PIT backfield for years to come. I believe they're going to continue to work Najeh Davenport in this year to the point where FWP is no longer the goal-line back or the 3rd down back. I think that FWP has game-breaking speed and can put up 1300 rushing yards, but going foward he's not going to score a ton of TDs or be involved in the passing game like a Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown. Not to mention: this is Pittsburgh. They like their big, grinding RBs. That's always going to be there nagging me in the back of my head. When the weather gets nastier, they're going to find an excuse to work in a bigger back.
Just my .02
By the way, FWP wasn't the 3rd down back at all this year until Hayes went down. Many times when Najeh has been in recently, it has been in passing situations.
Why isn't FWP going to score TDs? He was in on the goal line in all 3 situations I saw yesterday. Two times he scored and one time he didn't. They followed his miss with a play action fake where Miller was wide open. FWP has been very successful at the goal line this year and made the play action fake (yesterday) ridiculously easy.
One other note, there are only 3 RBs, WRs or TEs in the NFL with 10 or more TDs and no one else has more than 7. Care to guess? LT is pretty easy and LJ is as well. The third, well the FWP that you don't think going forward will score a ton of TDs. FWP has 2 less TDs than LJ and 3 more than anyone else in the league not named LT or LJ.
Whether you like it or not, the Pittsburgh running game has been quite effective this year and not the cause of the 3-6 start. If it weren't for FWP's two 70+ yard runs where he finished off both with goal line TDs, Pittsburgh would not have beaten a very good NO team that overmatched their defense. I see nothing that Parker has done or Najeh has done that would make him change the way he has called the running game this year.
In the last 24 games (1.5 seasons), Parker has 2049 rushing yards and 15 TDs (10TDs in the last 7 games). Do you think Cowher would rather get the 3.5 ypc that Bettis had in his last 4 years with the Steelers or Parkers 4.7 ypc that he has in 439 carries over 2 years? I think it is funny to presume that Cowher is going to give up almost 5 yards per carry just because we all say he likes big backs. In case you haven't seen, Parker is not the same back as last year, he isn't quite as fast but he is a lot more powerful.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 10:02 AM)
As someone pointed out earlier, it's tough to re-rank dynasty players on a weekly basis. You don't want one week's impressive play or disappointments to skew the value of the actual talent. However, as I've explained earlier, I'm going to revise these values weekly for my own benefit as it's one of the byproducts of participating in a playoff league. Just because I've dropped Eli Manning, that doesn't mean you should think less of him (I just happen to think he's as overrated as any player in the NFL). This is just a weekly gauge of where I stand on these players.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
Great thread guys. F&L, would you mind posting your complete rankings? It's tough to keep track of the movements and where everyone stands.
QUOTE (stbugs @ Nov 13 2006, 10:03 AM)
By the way, FWP wasn't the 3rd down back at all this year until Hayes went down. Many times when Najeh has been in recently, it has been in passing situations.
Why isn't FWP going to score TDs? He was in on the goal line in all 3 situations I saw yesterday. Two times he scored and one time he didn't. They followed his miss with a play action fake where Miller was wide open. FWP has been very successful at the goal line this year and made the play action fake (yesterday) ridiculously easy.
One other note, there are only 3 RBs, WRs or TEs in the NFL with 10 or more TDs and no one else has more than 7. Care to guess? LT is pretty easy and LJ is as well. The third, well the FWP that you don't think going forward will score a ton of TDs. FWP has 2 less TDs than LJ and 3 more than anyone else in the league not named LT or LJ.
Whether you like it or not, the Pittsburgh running game has been quite effective this year and not the cause of the 3-6 start. If it weren't for FWP's two 70+ yard runs where he finished off both with goal line TDs, Pittsburgh would not have beaten a very good NO team that overmatched their defense. I see nothing that Parker has done or Najeh has done that would make him change the way he has called the running game this year.
In the last 24 games (1.5 seasons), Parker has 2049 rushing yards and 15 TDs (10TDs in the last 7 games). Do you think Cowher would rather get the 3.5 ypc that Bettis had in his last 4 years with the Steelers or Parkers 4.7 ypc that he has in 439 carries over 2 years? I think it is funny to presume that Cowher is going to give up almost 5 yards per carry just because we all say he likes big backs. In case you haven't seen, Parker is not the same back as last year, he isn't quite as fast but he is a lot more powerful.
Why isn't FWP going to score TDs? He was in on the goal line in all 3 situations I saw yesterday. Two times he scored and one time he didn't. They followed his miss with a play action fake where Miller was wide open. FWP has been very successful at the goal line this year and made the play action fake (yesterday) ridiculously easy.
One other note, there are only 3 RBs, WRs or TEs in the NFL with 10 or more TDs and no one else has more than 7. Care to guess? LT is pretty easy and LJ is as well. The third, well the FWP that you don't think going forward will score a ton of TDs. FWP has 2 less TDs than LJ and 3 more than anyone else in the league not named LT or LJ.
Whether you like it or not, the Pittsburgh running game has been quite effective this year and not the cause of the 3-6 start. If it weren't for FWP's two 70+ yard runs where he finished off both with goal line TDs, Pittsburgh would not have beaten a very good NO team that overmatched their defense. I see nothing that Parker has done or Najeh has done that would make him change the way he has called the running game this year.
In the last 24 games (1.5 seasons), Parker has 2049 rushing yards and 15 TDs (10TDs in the last 7 games). Do you think Cowher would rather get the 3.5 ypc that Bettis had in his last 4 years with the Steelers or Parkers 4.7 ypc that he has in 439 carries over 2 years? I think it is funny to presume that Cowher is going to give up almost 5 yards per carry just because we all say he likes big backs. In case you haven't seen, Parker is not the same back as last year, he isn't quite as fast but he is a lot more powerful.
First of all, thanks for pointing all of this out less than 24 hours after FWP's career game. Very timely indeed.
Secondly, I wasn't talking about a lack of talent or power in Parker's game. I believe, as I did last year, that he has the full package. What I was concerned about was perception. It was important enough last year to take goal-line and 3rd down opportunities away from him. It was important enough in the pre-season to try every other possible scenario before handing goal-line carries to Parker. It was important enough to bring in a Bettis-sized RB like Najeh a month ago. Has he conquered all doubts about goal-line carries? Will Najeh become a factor down the road?
As you can see above, I moved him from 14 to 9 before you posted this. So I believe he's going to keep building value. But that doubt is still going to be in the back of my mind.
QUOTE (Banger @ Nov 13 2006, 10:09 AM)
Great thread guys. F&L, would you mind posting your complete rankings? It's tough to keep track of the movements and where everyone stands.
Sure. I always just re-edit the initial rankings on post #1. Check the first post for updated rankings.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE (Banger @ Nov 13 2006, 10:09 AM)
Great thread guys. F&L, would you mind posting your complete rankings? It's tough to keep track of the movements and where everyone stands.
Sure. I always just re-edit the initial rankings on post #1. Check the first post for updated rankings.
ok, thanks. Again, I'm sure I'm like a lot of guys that come in and check out the thread but don't post in it. Similar to the Wheelhouse thread it's quickly becoming one of my fav's... A lot of good info, keep it up.
Primo work, F&L. Keep it up.
U
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QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 09:14 AM)
First of all, thanks for pointing all of this out less than 24 hours after FWP's career game. Very timely indeed.
Secondly, I wasn't talking about a lack of talent or power in Parker's game. I believe, as I did last year, that he has the full package. What I was concerned about was perception. It was important enough last year to take goal-line and 3rd down opportunities away from him. It was important enough in the pre-season to try every other possible scenario before handing goal-line carries to Parker. It was important enough to bring in a Bettis-sized RB like Najeh a month ago. Has he conquered all doubts about goal-line carries? Will Najeh become a factor down the road?
As you can see above, I moved him from 14 to 9 before you posted this. So I believe he's going to keep building value. But that doubt is still going to be in the back of my mind.
Secondly, I wasn't talking about a lack of talent or power in Parker's game. I believe, as I did last year, that he has the full package. What I was concerned about was perception. It was important enough last year to take goal-line and 3rd down opportunities away from him. It was important enough in the pre-season to try every other possible scenario before handing goal-line carries to Parker. It was important enough to bring in a Bettis-sized RB like Najeh a month ago. Has he conquered all doubts about goal-line carries? Will Najeh become a factor down the road?
As you can see above, I moved him from 14 to 9 before you posted this. So I believe he's going to keep building value. But that doubt is still going to be in the back of my mind.
No problem on the timing, that is my forte!
Note that I actually started typing my response before you had posted your upgrade from 14 to 9. You squeezed it in before I got my reply done and it definitely dropped my post to even less timely. My timing was actually based more on the interesting note that while checking out the stats in my league that I realized only 3 guys, LT, LJ and FWP had 10 TDs and no other RB, WR or TE had more than 7. Rather than start a new thread I did a search for Parker and this was the best one I found to throw out that tidbit and I figured I would respond to your post as well.I guess my only point is based on your bolded line. Parker is not the same back as in 2005. You said you thought he had the full package last year, but he is nothing like last year. I drafted him very late last year because I had heard grumblings about all the injuries and it seemed like he would get a chance and he definitely did.
What I also saw after watching a bunch of games was a guy who was very fast and looked like he had spent the 2004 off-season getting ready to be a change of pace back. He ended up with 255 carries and it seemed to me that he wore down a bit. Fast forward to this offseason and you will see that he conditioned himself to be the full-time starter. He is still very fast, but not as fast, but he is much much more powerful. In 2005, he would very often go down with the first hit. In 2006, he finishes his runs and very often breaks tackles he wouldn't have broken last year.
I just think for people that haven't really watched him in 2005 and 2006 that they might not realize the change in him. He has been quite effective in the red zone this year. Take a look at yesterday's game. Pittsburgh had 4 red zone trips, 3 of which worked and 1 that didn't. The one that didn't was 3 straight passes that ended with a 4th and 11, 32 yard FG. The three that worked all had FWP effective runs. 2 were TDs and one was an 8 yard run to the 2, where he got stuffed on 2nd down. 3rd down was a play action fake which worked very well. There looked to be 2 or 3 folks wide open in the end zone because NO sold out on the run. Miller had no one around him and it wasn't even a fade to the corner, he was just standing there.
As you can tell, I think FWP has the goods and if he can get 10+ TDs a year, I think he is a dead on lock for top 10 to top 5 every year. If he keeps up the TD pace of more than 1 TD a game like this year, he is pretty much top 5 consideration every year.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 10:02 AM)
As someone pointed out earlier, it's tough to re-rank dynasty players on a weekly basis. You don't want one week's impressive play or disappointments to skew the value of the actual talent. However, as I've explained earlier, I'm going to revise these values weekly for my own benefit as it's one of the byproducts of participating in a playoff league. Just because I've dropped Eli Manning, that doesn't mean you should think less of him (I just happen to think he's as overrated as any player in the NFL). This is just a weekly gauge of where I stand on these players.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
I've made adjustments after the Week 10 Sunday games. See below for explanations. As always, I'll try to give my thoughts if you see a drastic discrepancy.
WEEK 10 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1. Flip-flopped Drew Brees & Marc Bulger - Loss of Pace + Brees' impressive play
2. Moved Matt Hasselbeck up two spots - Back soon; SEA likely division winner w/homefield advantage
3. Dropped Eli Manning from 7.5 to 11 - Overrated, Toomer & Petitgout out, Tiki retiring, helpless vs. Bears
4. Moved Philip Rivers ahead of Eli & Leinart - Very impressive in comeback; Chargers look strong in AFC
5. Moved Rex Grossman ahead of Leftwich - Good Grossman showed up; Bears still team to beat; JAX QBs?
6. Moved Steve McNair back ahead of Garrard - Garrard just too inaccurate to continue starting over Leftwich
7. Dropped Damon Huard from 33 to 40 - Loss makes it tougher to stave off Green; opportunity beyond 06?
8. Moved Jason Campbell from 39 to 34 - Still not sure if 'Skins believe in him, but window is coming soon
RUNNINGBACKS
1. Dropped Clinton Portis from 4 to 5 - Injuries becoming an issue, will miss a month & maybe more
2. Moved Willie Parker from 14 to 9 - Continues to pile up numbers & hold off Najeh; value now + future
3. Dropped Willis McGahee from 13 to 15 - Parker & Addai climb above him after injury
4. Dropped Jamal Lewis from 24 to 26 - Stumbled in grade-A match-up; Thomas Jones is better right now
5. Flip-flopped Brandon Jacobs & Cedric Benson - At the very least Jacobs to get heavy TDs; Benson is stuck
6. Dropped Wali Lundy from 38 to 45 - Not the future, maybe not the present; can't figure out HOU RBs
7. Dropped Leon Washington from 39 to 43 - Upside looking more and more like part-timer
8. Dropped Mike Bell from 44 to 51 - Flavor of the month hits the doghouse
9. Dropped Musa Smith from 43 to 46 - Injured again, how serious is uncertain
10. Moved Maurice Morris from 59 to 53 - Looked great against two suspect run defenses
11. Dropped Michael Robinson from 53 to 58 - Preseason sheen wearing off; lost time to Hicks yesterday
12. Moved Anthony Thomas from 69 to 61 - Startable while McGahee is out
Jerome Harrison continues to drop
Samkon Gado moves up a few spots
Cedric Cobbs drops with missed opportunity
Brian Calhoun major drop with ACL injury
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Moved Marques Colston ahead of Randy Moss - Does he deserve top 10? If so, who to drop?
2. Dropped Lee Evans from 18 to 20 - Losman awful, Bills playcalling spurns the forward pass
3. Moved Mark Clayton from 33 to 30 - Has he leapfrogged Mason as the #1 WR in BAL?
4. Moved Drew Bennett from 48 to 33 - Passing game lives! Better yet, may be headed to real team as UFA
5. Dropped Terry Glenn from 41 to 48 - You never like to hear the possibility of micro-fracture surgery
6. Amani Toomer drops out altogether - Age + injury leave him valueless
7. Mark Bradley jumps in at 53 - Bears still high on '05 2nd rounder; value higher here due to playoff status
8. Malcomb Floyd jumps in at 62 - Again, value higher here because Chargers are a contender
Minor changes throughout 40s, 50s & 60s
TIGHT ENDS
No movement until further word on Gonzalez's injury.
Again, great job F&L. I really appreciate the work and thought you put into this.
Parker had himself quite the game this week and I think he is steadily proving himself to be the present and future in Pittsburgh. I think his dynasty value is through the roof at the moment.
I'm finding more and more that I enjoy this thread and look forward to its weekly updates as much as a lot of pay material. Major props to F&L for his time and energy, and for the thought that goes into replies to others' comments and questions. This is the best dynasty discussion thread going right now, and I hope it continues.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Nov 13 2006, 01:49 PM)
I'm finding more and more that I enjoy this thread and look forward to its weekly updates as much as a lot of pay material. Major props to F&L for his time and energy, and for the thought that goes into replies to others' comments and questions. This is the best dynasty discussion thread going right now, and I hope it continues.
Agreed on all points.
Great work F&L - This thread is awesome.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Nov 13 2006, 01:49 PM)
I'm finding more and more that I enjoy this thread and look forward to its weekly updates as much as a lot of pay material. Major props to F&L for his time and energy, and for the thought that goes into replies to others' comments and questions. This is the best dynasty discussion thread going right now, and I hope it continues.
Thanks for the kudos, guys. One of the major reasons I've continued to put the time in to keep this thread going is that I'm getting great (and very thoughtful) feedback. I think it would have withered on the vine if it was just me and
in here.The more feedback I get, the better this thread becomes.
Has anyone at FBG thought about adding F&L's rankings to the premium content dynasty rankings?
Makes a lot of sense.
Makes a lot of sense.
Great work F&L, I like alot of others check this topic at least 2-3 times a week. It gives me another point of view on guys im looking to acquire/trade. Great post and keep up the good work.
There was an interesting discussion about Heap in another recent dynasty thread, and had that in my head when seeing your TE rankings. I just can't imagine being in a dynasty league and not being willing to trade Todd Heap for Kellen Winslow. Right now Heap's a better red zone option, but Winslow kicks his ### in yardage already, and with any improvement at ALL in the Cleveland offense, he could be a total difference making STUD. Unless there's some evidence that Winslow's injuries are going to somehow be chronic, can't see any scenario where keeping the older, more beat up plodder over the race horse that's already proving he can be at least as good in any given week.
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2006, 10:13 PM)
There was an interesting discussion about Heap in another recent dynasty thread, and had that in my head when seeing your TE rankings. I just can't imagine being in a dynasty league and not being willing to trade Todd Heap for Kellen Winslow. Right now Heap's a better red zone option, but Winslow kicks his ### in yardage already, and with any improvement at ALL in the Cleveland offense, he could be a total difference making STUD. Unless there's some evidence that Winslow's injuries are going to somehow be chronic, can't see any scenario where keeping the older, more beat up plodder over the race horse that's already proving he can be at least as good in any given week.
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
Interesting. You could actually make an argument for Winslow as the #1 overall TE in dynasty rankings.
I like Heap. I've seen him play a lot over his career, and I certainly would not classify him as a plodder. He's one of the best athletes ever to play the position. The one major advantage he has over Winslow is that he's a better redzone threat.
But I see your point. Those 1-6 TE's are bunched together, and there's not a whole lot separating one from the other. In addition to Winslow's injury history, there's also a knucklehead factor to worry about as well.
I think the major reason for the discrepancy is the one thing I've been asking people to keep in mind all along. I play in a playoff league. With Baltimore looking like a division winner with home-field advantage, Todd Heap is a major playoff piece. Winslow is not...and who knows how long it will be before he is.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 09:34 PM)
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2006, 10:13 PM)
There was an interesting discussion about Heap in another recent dynasty thread, and had that in my head when seeing your TE rankings. I just can't imagine being in a dynasty league and not being willing to trade Todd Heap for Kellen Winslow. Right now Heap's a better red zone option, but Winslow kicks his ### in yardage already, and with any improvement at ALL in the Cleveland offense, he could be a total difference making STUD. Unless there's some evidence that Winslow's injuries are going to somehow be chronic, can't see any scenario where keeping the older, more beat up plodder over the race horse that's already proving he can be at least as good in any given week.
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
Interesting. You could actually make an argument for Winslow as the #1 overall TE in dynasty rankings.
I like Heap. I've seen him play a lot over his career, and I certainly would not classify him as a plodder. He's one of the best athletes ever to play the position. The one major advantage he has over Winslow is that he's a better redzone threat.
But I see your point. Those 1-6 TE's are bunched together, and there's not a whole lot separating one from the other. In addition to Winslow's injury history, there's also a knucklehead factor to worry about as well.
I think the major reason for the discrepancy is the one thing I've been asking people to keep in mind all along. I play in a playoff league. With Baltimore looking like a division winner with home-field advantage, Todd Heap is a major playoff piece. Winslow is not...and who knows how long it will be before he is.
OK, poor choice of words re: Heap, but he does play a pretty plodding role in that PLODDING offense, something I don't see changing anytime soon (especially since he's seemingly always at least 'banged up'), while Winslow is already pushing toward 100 catch season type #'s. I see your point about a playoff league, but any other dynasty scenario, the guy that has Kellen Winslow has gotta pretty pretty damned happy right now.
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2006, 11:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 13 2006, 09:34 PM)
QUOTE (Homer @ Nov 13 2006, 10:13 PM)
There was an interesting discussion about Heap in another recent dynasty thread, and had that in my head when seeing your TE rankings. I just can't imagine being in a dynasty league and not being willing to trade Todd Heap for Kellen Winslow. Right now Heap's a better red zone option, but Winslow kicks his ### in yardage already, and with any improvement at ALL in the Cleveland offense, he could be a total difference making STUD. Unless there's some evidence that Winslow's injuries are going to somehow be chronic, can't see any scenario where keeping the older, more beat up plodder over the race horse that's already proving he can be at least as good in any given week.
Still, if that's the biggest quibble with your rankings, you're doing a pretty damned good job!
Interesting. You could actually make an argument for Winslow as the #1 overall TE in dynasty rankings.
I like Heap. I've seen him play a lot over his career, and I certainly would not classify him as a plodder. He's one of the best athletes ever to play the position. The one major advantage he has over Winslow is that he's a better redzone threat.
But I see your point. Those 1-6 TE's are bunched together, and there's not a whole lot separating one from the other. In addition to Winslow's injury history, there's also a knucklehead factor to worry about as well.
I think the major reason for the discrepancy is the one thing I've been asking people to keep in mind all along. I play in a playoff league. With Baltimore looking like a division winner with home-field advantage, Todd Heap is a major playoff piece. Winslow is not...and who knows how long it will be before he is.
OK, poor choice of words re: Heap, but he does play a pretty plodding role in that PLODDING offense, something I don't see changing anytime soon (especially since he's seemingly always at least 'banged up'), while Winslow is already pushing toward 100 catch season type #'s. I see your point about a playoff league, but any other dynasty scenario, the guy that has Kellen Winslow has gotta pretty pretty damned happy right now.
Very good points all around on Winslow. I'm sure his owners are ecstatic right now.
I'm a likely playoff team in my league, so I would not trade Heap for Winslow. However, if I was a team on the outside looking in, I'd be all over that trade. Winslow would be one of my prime targets if I was in that situation. The upside was unlimited when he came into the league, and it's still Hall of Fame level as long as he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight...big "if"s.
Fear and Loathing:
I love the rankings....plus there Free and have a good explanation behind them.
I got a question for ya: IF, you was making a top 25 OVERALL list who would be on that as far as dynasty rank overall?
I love the rankings....plus there Free and have a good explanation behind them.
I got a question for ya: IF, you was making a top 25 OVERALL list who would be on that as far as dynasty rank overall?
Thanks for the rankings F&L
QUOTE (THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA @ Nov 14 2006, 12:15 AM)
Fear and Loathing:
I love the rankings....plus there Free and have a good explanation behind them.
I got a question for ya: IF, you was making a top 25 OVERALL list who would be on that as far as dynasty rank overall?
I love the rankings....plus there Free and have a good explanation behind them.
I got a question for ya: IF, you was making a top 25 OVERALL list who would be on that as far as dynasty rank overall?
Thanks.
Top 25 Overall...hmmm. I'm not a big fan of the "overall" method of ranking, but here goes:
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD RB1
2 Larry Johnson KC RB2
3 Steven Jackson STL RB3
4 Peyton Manning IND QB1
5 Clinton Portis WAS RB4
6 Ronnie Brown MIA RB5
7 Kevin Jones DET RB6
8 *Shaun Alexander SEA RB7
9 Donovan McNabb PHI QB2
10 Steve Smith CAR WR1
11 Brian Westbrook PHI RB8
12 Willie Parker PIT RB9
13 Torry Holt STL WR2
14 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR3
15 Laurence Maroney NE RB10
16 Reggie Bush NO RB11
17 Carson Palmer CIN QB3
18 Chad Johnson CIN WR4
19 Rudi Johnson CIN RB12
20 Frank Gore SF RB13
21 Joseph Addai IND RB14
22 Andre Johnson HOU WR5
23 Tom Brady NE QB4
24 Anquan Boldin ARI WR6
25 Marvin Harrison IND WR7
Next Tier: Vick, Brees, Roy Williams, R. Wayne, H. Ward
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