QUOTE (Colin Dowling @ Jan 3 2008, 04:38 PM) 
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 09:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
WR is a gamble of sorts. There are 6 or 7 guys who should be selected in the first 60 picks, but none that are top-10 types.
RB is...well...interesting. McFadden is IMO a notch below Peterson and more comparable to Caddy's rank coming out of college; still extremely highly rated but not the best we've seen lately. Players like Mendenhall, Stewart, and Charles could be super-exciting if they end up in the right places. Rice, Slaton, Choice, etc. all are talented enough to earn significant playing time, but not everyone drafted will be a star obviously.
TE is almost non-existent.
I could have just bolded everything I guess, all good points. I just don't see anyone who stands out to me right now, the wideouts are a flip a coin type deal in my eyes (of course where they go makes a big difference for wide outs imo, at least right away) and the same can be said for the qb's. And the running backs after mccfadden remind me of the running backs after lynch and AD, I didnt even want to draft any of them.
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 09:59 PM)
QUOTE (Colin Dowling @ Jan 3 2008, 04:38 PM)
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 09:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
WR is a gamble of sorts. There are 6 or 7 guys who should be selected in the first 60 picks, but none that are top-10 types.
RB is...well...interesting. McFadden is IMO a notch below Peterson and more comparable to Caddy's rank coming out of college; still extremely highly rated but not the best we've seen lately. Players like Mendenhall, Stewart, and Charles could be super-exciting if they end up in the right places. Rice, Slaton, Choice, etc. all are talented enough to earn significant playing time, but not everyone drafted will be a star obviously.
TE is almost non-existent.
I could have just bolded everything I guess, all good points. I just don't see anyone who stands out to me right now, the wideouts are a flip a coin type deal in my eyes (of course where they go makes a big difference for wide outs imo, at least right away) and the same can be said for the qb's. And the running backs after mccfadden remind me of the running backs after lynch and AD, I didnt even want to draft any of them.
Stewart, Mendenhall, and Charles are all 3 better then Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, and Brandon Jackson...
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 01:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
CODE
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
Mozzy,
F&L has said in the past he's not as deep into the college game as a lot of others around here (Colin, EBF, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, etc.) so he generally defers to them on such matters.
I'd suggest keeping up with the thread linked below called 2008 Rookie Draft Picks which was started way back in October 2006, and start reading especially from the beginning of the 2007 college season on. Lots of good reading in there from some of the guys. I've linked beginning with the September 7 2007 post:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...5868&st=203
QUOTE (Colin Dowling @ Jan 3 2008, 05:01 PM)
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 09:59 PM)
QUOTE (Colin Dowling @ Jan 3 2008, 04:38 PM)
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 09:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
CODE
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
WR is a gamble of sorts. There are 6 or 7 guys who should be selected in the first 60 picks, but none that are top-10 types.
RB is...well...interesting. McFadden is IMO a notch below Peterson and more comparable to Caddy's rank coming out of college; still extremely highly rated but not the best we've seen lately. Players like Mendenhall, Stewart, and Charles could be super-exciting if they end up in the right places. Rice, Slaton, Choice, etc. all are talented enough to earn significant playing time, but not everyone drafted will be a star obviously.
TE is almost non-existent.
I could have just bolded everything I guess, all good points. I just don't see anyone who stands out to me right now, the wideouts are a flip a coin type deal in my eyes (of course where they go makes a big difference for wide outs imo, at least right away) and the same can be said for the qb's. And the running backs after mccfadden remind me of the running backs after lynch and AD, I didnt even want to draft any of them.
Stewart, Mendenhall, and Charles are all 3 better then Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, and Brandon Jackson...
Also, at QB you've got the top 3 in Brohm, Ryan and Woodson with some people liking one better than others but all at a high level of talent. Then you've got a second tier with Ainge, Brennan, Henne and possibly one or two more who have enough talent to start in the NFL some day depending on the situation they land in.
It will be easier to assess after the Combine, Pro Day's and Draft, but worth discussing now. I only wish I had more to add.
QUOTE (footballguy#1 @ Jan 3 2008, 04:41 PM)
Great thread.
Does K. Warner really have as much as you are giving him? You have Leinart ranked ahead of him and he should be the starter, right? Warner will be 38 next year and I just don't see him getting another starting job.
Does K. Warner really have as much as you are giving him? You have Leinart ranked ahead of him and he should be the starter, right? Warner will be 38 next year and I just don't see him getting another starting job.
It's just a matter of preference. He's old, Leinart is the purported starter, and his window for value may already be closed after Week 17 of this year. I'll grant you all of that.
However, we know that he can be difference maker whenever he's in the lineup. He threw almost 30 TDs this season in about 12 and a half games this year. I believe Matt Leinart will bounce back, but if he struggles in the pre-season it's going to be worth having Kurt Warner on your roster. When I rank players I ask myself whether I would rather have that player than any of the guys ranked below him. With Warner's upside, there's nobody below him that I would rather have on my roster going into next season.
I could see an argument for Campbell because he's had his moments in his young career, and he has a lot of vocal backers on his team and in dynasty leagues. I just don't see him ever being a difference maker in fantasy football, and I'm absolutely positive Todd Collins runs that offense better than Campbell does. If Collins leads the Redskins on a deep run through the playoffs, it will be interesting to see what the Redskins do at QB going into next season.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Jan 3 2008, 05:12 PM)
Mozzy,
F&L has said in the past he's not as deep into the college game as a lot of others around here (Colin, EBF, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, etc.) so he generally defers to them on such matters.
I'd suggest keeping up with the thread linked below called 2008 Rookie Draft Picks which was started way back in October 2006, and start reading especially from the beginning of the 2007 college season on. Lots of good reading in there from some of the guys. I've linked beginning with the September 7 2007 post:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...5868&st=203
F&L has said in the past he's not as deep into the college game as a lot of others around here (Colin, EBF, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, etc.) so he generally defers to them on such matters.
I'd suggest keeping up with the thread linked below called 2008 Rookie Draft Picks which was started way back in October 2006, and start reading especially from the beginning of the 2007 college season on. Lots of good reading in there from some of the guys. I've linked beginning with the September 7 2007 post:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...5868&st=203
CP is right. I don't follow the college game as much, so thanks for the above link, and I'm glad Colin jumped in. Hopefully, EBF and a few other draft/prospect mavens will weigh in. I've read some of EBF's stuff on the RB class, and he seems to have a good handle on it.
My own feeling is that McFadden is somewhere between Peterson and Lynch. I don't know much about the rest of the guys, but a few of them seem more talented than the 2-5 backs from last year. I think with receivers, a lot depends where they end up.
QUOTE (KellysHeroes @ May 3 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 1 2007, 08:12 PM)
QUOTE (DocT @ May 1 2007, 09:14 PM)
Dearest F&L,
Where do you rank AP in your RB rankings? Between what guys would you estimate?
I hope to have the rankings updated some time this week...and a decent response to MOP (a proper thanks at the very least).
Right now, I'd say my RB rankings are going to look like this:
1. L.Tomlinson
2. S.Jackson
3. L.Johnson
4. R.Bush
5. F.Gore
6. A.Peterson
7. L.Maroney
8. B.Westbrook
9. J.Addai
10 on -- Not sure yet...
Why do 1st yr Rookies always get ranked higher than 2nd yr studs that are on great teams
I see it every ####ing year and it makes me laugh
Just wanted to bump this while compiling the master theory list.
Yes, being kind of a tool, but for as much as KH calls people out, people could stand to see this.
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 04:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
CODE
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
I think it will end up being a pretty good group when all is said and done.
QBs
At QB you have three guys who look like first round picks: Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, and Andre Woodson. I'm not really wild about any of those guys, but they should all come off the board in the first 20 picks of the draft and maybe one or two of them will develop into solid NFL starters. The depth is strong this year with Chad Henne, Colt Brennan, Erik Ainge, and a few other guys likely coming off the board in rounds 2-4. These guys are not worth a top 15 rookie pick, but may offer a better risk/reward proposition than the big name signal callers. Henne and Ainge are especially intriguing since they're successful four year starters at major, major BCS schools. I won't be surprised if one of those two becomes a steal. So while this class lacks a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer type player, there are enough sleepers to keep the draft interesting.
RBs
The RB picture is still developing as underclassmen announce their intentions. Darren McFadden is the big name attraction and the only RB likely to go in the top 10 of the draft. He has some superstar qualities and a very high ceiling, but comes with significantly more bust risk than the typical top 15 RB prospect. He may not have the bulk to carry the load in the NFL. If I had the 1.01 pick I would at least consider trying to sell it for market value since I think McFadden's perceived value exceeds his actual value.
Jonathan Stewart is the probable RB2 and could go anywhere from 10-25 on draft day. He is a physical specimen with a truly freakish combination of speed and strength. He has the body type and running style to handle multiple seasons of 300+ carries. He is not quite a sure thing, but is nevertheless an immediate top 15 back in dynasty leagues. It's relatively unlikely that he'll be a complete bust and he has a very high ceiling. He reminds me a little bit of Fred Taylor and Rudi Johnson. Some scouts compare him to a young Jamal Lewis.
There seems to be a little bit of a dropoff after those two. Rashard Mendenhall offers an elite combination of size, strength, and speed. He should be a first round pick, but appears to lack ideal running instincts. He reminds me of Joseph Addai and Julius Jones. Those comparisons probably represent his ceiling and his floor.
Felix Jones could be the third back taken if he decides to declare. He has been very productive in the SEC and offers the kind of compact build and shifty running style that translate well to the NFL. How high he goes in the draft will likely depend on his ability to convince NFL people that he's an every-down player. His ceiling is Brian Westbrook. His floor is Kevin Faulk.
Jamaal Charles is probably next in line and could even leapfrog some of the guys currently listed ahead of him. He had a dominant campaign and offers world class speed coupled with good quickness and running skills. Like Jones, he'll have to answer questions about his ability to carry the load in the NFL. Teams may view him as a change-of-pace guy, which would hurt his draft stock.
Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, James Davis, and Chris Johnson are probable first day picks. All of them offer interesting potential, but none of them are locks to succeed. Matt Forte and Ryan Torain are two quality sleepers who should come off the board in rounds 3 or 4. Tashard Choice, Yvenson Bernard, Mike Hart, and Allen Patrick are likely day two selections.
So basically you have McFadden and Stewart at the top of the heap. They will probably be the prized commodities when rookie drafts roll around. Mendenhall, Jones, and Charles all offer starting potential and should be top 20-40 picks. The third and fourth tiers are packed with overachievers and sleepers. It's likely that we'll get a Marion Barber or Ryan Grant from that group, but most of those guys should be viewed as future backups.
WRs
I'm not as solid on the WRs as I am on the RBs or QBs. My initial impression is that this group lacks star power, but will eventually yield a handful of productive pro receivers when all is said and done.
There is no Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald in this class. As of right now there doesn't appear to be a clear consensus top WR. DeSean Jackson goes first in a lot of mocks, but he's a better return man than receiver and may be a little overrated by most pundits. Malcolm Kelly offers tantalizing ability and will probably be a first round pick. The downside with him is that he seems to play a little soft and may lack ideal football skills. Adarius Bowman and Early Doucet also have first round potential. Bowman is a big blue collar possession WR. Doucet is a speedy athlete who had been overshadowed by Bowe and Davis. I liked him coming out of high school, but haven't seen enough of him in college to have much of an opinion. Mario Manningham is another potential first round pick if he declares.
There will be a big chunk of WR value to be had in rounds 2-4. Some of the guys who could go in that range: Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Keenan Burton, Davone Bess, Josh Morgan, Eddie Royal, Lavelle Hawkins, Harry Douglas, and Andre Caldwell. I'm still doing my homework on these guys, but will have a lot more to say about them in the coming months.
People will say that there is no WR talent in this class. I disagree and think this class could resemble the 2006 group. Everyone thought that WR class stunk, but it's already produced Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Marshall. There will be talent players in this group. They just won't have the hype of Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald.
Overall
The story of this year's rookie drafts will be the RB class. This could be a year where the top 5-6 guys off the board in dynasty leagues are all running backs. This is partially because the RB depth is better than average and partially because there don't appear to be any surefire impact players at WR or QB. So it looks like the value will be focused in the top 4-5 picks while the difference in actual value between picks in the 5-10 range and picks in the 10-20 range could be minimal. As always, getting value from rookie picks outside the top 5-6 will depend largely on an owner's ability to identify talent.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 22 2007, 03:52 PM)
QUOTE (Donnybrook @ Dec 22 2007, 12:25 PM)
QUOTE
[1] Mike Bell DEN 24.4
I guess that this might be his value if stays with the Broncos but happens if he is released.
I can't imagine that he would have a significant signing bonus so the Broncos may be able to release him without penalty. I also can't see why they wouldn't if they have better options and he is just taking up space on the bench. He could have Reuban Droughns circa 2006 type value if he finds a good home.
I will be holding Bell on my roster probably until the NFL draft is sorted.
In a nutshell, you've hit on the reasons for his negligible value. What you said about him could also be said for any non-starting RB on the list. If they get cut and go to another team, maybe they get a chance to impress somebody and a share of the load.
But what's that package worth?
It seems to me like you've gone out of your way to convince yourself that Mike Bell could have value if things fall perfectly when you could convince yourself the same about any RB out there.
You can say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one.
http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...NFL&id=3770
QUOTE
The Denver Post speculates that Broncos RB Mike Bell could be dealt before the NFL Draft.
Bell went from a productive co-starter at tailback in 2006 to bench warmer at fullback this season, playing in only five games. The Broncos should be able to acquire a late-round pick from a team looking to improve their short yardage running game. Bell's style fits well behind zone blocking, so Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, and possibly K.C. are possibilities.
Bell went from a productive co-starter at tailback in 2006 to bench warmer at fullback this season, playing in only five games. The Broncos should be able to acquire a late-round pick from a team looking to improve their short yardage running game. Bell's style fits well behind zone blocking, so Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, and possibly K.C. are possibilities.
QUOTE (Donnybrook @ Jan 4 2008, 12:15 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 22 2007, 03:52 PM)
QUOTE (Donnybrook @ Dec 22 2007, 12:25 PM)
QUOTE
[1] Mike Bell DEN 24.4
I guess that this might be his value if stays with the Broncos but happens if he is released.
I can't imagine that he would have a significant signing bonus so the Broncos may be able to release him without penalty. I also can't see why they wouldn't if they have better options and he is just taking up space on the bench. He could have Reuban Droughns circa 2006 type value if he finds a good home.
I will be holding Bell on my roster probably until the NFL draft is sorted.
In a nutshell, you've hit on the reasons for his negligible value. What you said about him could also be said for any non-starting RB on the list. If they get cut and go to another team, maybe they get a chance to impress somebody and a share of the load.
But what's that package worth?
It seems to me like you've gone out of your way to convince yourself that Mike Bell could have value if things fall perfectly when you could convince yourself the same about any RB out there.
You can say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one.
http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...NFL&id=3770
QUOTE
The Denver Post speculates that Broncos RB Mike Bell could be dealt before the NFL Draft.
Bell went from a productive co-starter at tailback in 2006 to bench warmer at fullback this season, playing in only five games. The Broncos should be able to acquire a late-round pick from a team looking to improve their short yardage running game. Bell's style fits well behind zone blocking, so Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, and possibly K.C. are possibilities.
Bell went from a productive co-starter at tailback in 2006 to bench warmer at fullback this season, playing in only five games. The Broncos should be able to acquire a late-round pick from a team looking to improve their short yardage running game. Bell's style fits well behind zone blocking, so Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, and possibly K.C. are possibilities.
I can't imagine how much money I would wager on there being exactly 0 bidders for Mike Bell on the trading marker. Someone giving up a draft pick for him would be incomprehensible.
I've mentioned on several occasions that my leagues are "playoff leagues" or leagues that have their playoffs simultaneously with the NFL's playoffs. Some of you have asked for specifics on how a league like that would work. I have full coverage of starting lineups, trades, strategy, and detailed rules for my longtime Full Contact dynasty league on the front page of my blog.
Check it out if you're interested in seeing how a playoff league works. For my money, I'll never go back to a Week 14-16 playoff league with its complete reliance on luck as well its failure to stay involved during the most important NFL games of the season.
http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/
Check it out if you're interested in seeing how a playoff league works. For my money, I'll never go back to a Week 14-16 playoff league with its complete reliance on luck as well its failure to stay involved during the most important NFL games of the season.
http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/
QUOTE (EBF @ Jan 3 2008, 08:07 PM)
James Hardy
I believe I read he declared. I believe he'll be in the mix in Round 1 or early-to-mid Round 2 based on how he tests. With his size, could be an immediate RZ factor.
I think the hardest WR to grade is Manningham. Drops far too many passes and seems to be a headcase (already), but has great physical gifts.
And with that said, his QB (Henne) could be the QB surprise of the draft down the line. JMO I'd much rather take Henne after Round 1 (at this point, hard to tell how far beyond he'll end up going) than any of the other 3 in Round 1.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 5 2008, 12:26 AM)
Check it out if you're interested in seeing how a playoff league works. For my money, I'll never go back to a Week 14-16 playoff league with its complete reliance on luck as well its failure to stay involved during the most important NFL games of the season.
What does this mean:
QUOTE
Each team is allowed to protect up to one starting team for the playoffs. Obviously, the players used must be from teams who have made the NFL playoffs.
I'm guessing you choose from preset line-ups each week..?
QUOTE (valhallan @ Jan 5 2008, 02:37 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 5 2008, 12:26 AM)
Check it out if you're interested in seeing how a playoff league works. For my money, I'll never go back to a Week 14-16 playoff league with its complete reliance on luck as well its failure to stay involved during the most important NFL games of the season.
What does this mean:
QUOTE
Each team is allowed to protect up to one starting team for the playoffs. Obviously, the players used must be from teams who have made the NFL playoffs.
I'm guessing you choose from preset line-ups each week..?
You choose only from the players on your own roster for each week of the playoffs. If a player in your Week 1 starting lineup loses, then you lose that position for the rest of the playoffs.
For example, that's why I can't gamble on starting Todd Collins when I have Tom Brady ready to plug in for Week 2. If the Redskins lose, I forfeit QB for the rest of the playoffs. But I have decided to gamble on starting Hines Ward, Joey Galloway, Chris Cooley & Jerramy Stevens in Week 1 with Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, Terry Glenn and Ben Watson all possibilities to plug in Week 2. If the gamble pays off, I can keep Cooley or Ward in my lineup and replace the other three guys with my three Patriots for Round Two. If the gamble doesn't pay off, I lose two or three guys and have to keep most of my Patriots receivers on the bench in Week 2...but it's not like I have Randy Moss sitting there, so it's not worth holding those Week One guys out.
I should also add that WR/TE are interchangeable and a shotgun offense (1 RB + 4 WR/TE) is allowed as an option to 2 RB + 3 WRs.
I really started the piggyback gambling strategy a few years back, and now some teams are starting to copy it. My theory is that the gamble on getting a head start with Week One points is worth it if those players are better than what you have on your bench for Week 2....and that goes double if you have confidence in their team winning in Round one [luckily, I've never guessed wrong on a Round one game in this league]. Used to be that guys would submit a lineup in the first week with bye week players already in it, and then not make a move the rest of the playoffs. Now most of the owners submit a new lineup with changes every week.
The strategy has really evolved a lot in this league from '99 to the present. It's gotten a lot more competitive, and it's tooth & nail in the playoffs now.
Here's my playoff roster with Week One starters bolded. I've managed to trade off most of my non-playoff guys with the exception of nucleus players like Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook & Larry Fitzgerald.
#2 Seed: BACKYARD ALL-STARS [+15]
QB: Tom Brady, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
QB: Todd Collins, WAS - #6 vs. Seattle
RB: Najeh Davenport, PIT - #4 vs. Jacksonville
RB: Kevin Faulk, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
WR: Hines Ward, PIT - #4 vs. Jacksonville
WR: Joey Galloway, TB - #4 vs. New York Giants
WR: Jabar Gaffney, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
WR: Donte’ Stallworth, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
WR: Terry Glenn, DAL - #1 vs. Tampa Bay / New York winner
TE: Chris Cooley, WAS - #6 vs. Seattle
TE: Ben Watson, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
TE: Jerramy Stevens, TB - #4 vs. New York Giants
TE: Alex Smith, TB - #4 vs. New York Giants
TE: Ben Troupe, TEN - #6 vs. Chargers
K: Nick Folk, DAL - #1 vs. Tampa Bay / New York winner
K: Jeff Reed, PIT - #4 vs. Jacksonville
D: Patriots, NE - #1 vs. Jacksonville / Pittsburgh winner
Trades: 11/14/07 - Sent Lee Evans, Justin Fargas & 1st round pick to Choda Soda for Hines Ward, Patriots Defense, Kevin Faulk & 6th round pick
11/10/07 - Sent Jamal Lewis & Vincent Jackson to Bungles for Donte' Stallworth
12/31/07 - Sent Alex Smith to Warriors for Troy Smith
12/31/07 - Sent Selvin Young to Choda Soda for Najeh Davenport
12/31/07 - Sent Owen Daniels and 4th round pick to Florida Red Palms for Donald Lee
1/2/08 - Sent Donald Lee to Boppers for Joey Galloway and Jabar Gaffney
1/3/08 - Sent Tony Scheffler, Kevin Curtis, Bears D, and 3rd round pick to Florida Red Palms for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, Jeff Reed, and 5th round pick
I mentioned this in another thread, but since I had dynasty leagues in mind when I did it, here's the "2008 Off-season RB landscape."
Dynasty Rankings Blog
Kind of a rough first draft, but there it is.
Dynasty Rankings Blog
Kind of a rough first draft, but there it is.
As ever F&L you dont disappoint!
I see you Have Tony Hunt as left for dead in Philly? Care to speculate on his value if Buckhalter leaves? Is he still just a handcuff with a low ceiling?
TIA
I see you Have Tony Hunt as left for dead in Philly? Care to speculate on his value if Buckhalter leaves? Is he still just a handcuff with a low ceiling?
TIA
QUOTE (crnerblitz @ Jan 7 2008, 08:24 PM)
As ever F&L you dont disappoint!
I see you Have Tony Hunt as left for dead in Philly? Care to speculate on his value if Buckhalter leaves? Is he still just a handcuff with a low ceiling?
TIA
I see you Have Tony Hunt as left for dead in Philly? Care to speculate on his value if Buckhalter leaves? Is he still just a handcuff with a low ceiling?
TIA
Thanks. If anybody went to the blog within the last hour or so, and the "off-season RB landscape" post was missing, I apologize. I went into the article to add a feature that would list all available free agents and likely cuts, and I think I nodded off for a few minutes after a long day...apparently, I hit a "save to drafts" button which took it off the front page and put into my drafts file. Whoops. Sorry about that. It's back up now.
crnerblitz,
I don't know that Hunt has any more value than the rest of those "hope & prayer" stashes that barely saw the field this year. I drafted him last year as a handcuff to Westbrook, but I ended up dropping him half-way through the year when it became obvious that Buckhalter was going to remain the backup.
I think his value is years down the road, and he's worth a lot more in leagues with huge rosters. I'm not sure what his ceiling is, but I don't think it's close to top tier. I have him pegged as a guy who won't get his shot for awhile and may end up as more of a role player if he ever does get a shot.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 5 2008, 02:28 AM)
Trades: 11/14/07 - Sent Lee Evans, Justin Fargas & 1st round pick to Choda Soda for Hines Ward, Patriots Defense, Kevin Faulk & 6th round pick
11/10/07 - Sent Jamal Lewis & Vincent Jackson to Bungles for Donte' Stallworth
12/31/07 - Sent Alex Smith to Warriors for Troy Smith
12/31/07 - Sent Selvin Young to Choda Soda for Najeh Davenport
12/31/07 - Sent Owen Daniels and 4th round pick to Florida Red Palms for Donald Lee
1/2/08 - Sent Donald Lee to Boppers for Joey Galloway and Jabar Gaffney
1/3/08 - Sent Tony Scheffler, Kevin Curtis, Bears D, and 3rd round pick to Florida Red Palms for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, Jeff Reed, and 5th round pick
11/10/07 - Sent Jamal Lewis & Vincent Jackson to Bungles for Donte' Stallworth
12/31/07 - Sent Alex Smith to Warriors for Troy Smith
12/31/07 - Sent Selvin Young to Choda Soda for Najeh Davenport
12/31/07 - Sent Owen Daniels and 4th round pick to Florida Red Palms for Donald Lee
1/2/08 - Sent Donald Lee to Boppers for Joey Galloway and Jabar Gaffney
1/3/08 - Sent Tony Scheffler, Kevin Curtis, Bears D, and 3rd round pick to Florida Red Palms for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, Jeff Reed, and 5th round pick
Pretty cool. There's no way you make most of those trades in a different format. I applaud you and your league for being unique.
QUOTE (FUBAR @ Jan 7 2008, 11:02 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 5 2008, 02:28 AM)
Trades: 11/14/07 - Sent Lee Evans, Justin Fargas & 1st round pick to Choda Soda for Hines Ward, Patriots Defense, Kevin Faulk & 6th round pick
11/10/07 - Sent Jamal Lewis & Vincent Jackson to Bungles for Donte' Stallworth
12/31/07 - Sent Alex Smith to Warriors for Troy Smith
12/31/07 - Sent Selvin Young to Choda Soda for Najeh Davenport
12/31/07 - Sent Owen Daniels and 4th round pick to Florida Red Palms for Donald Lee
1/2/08 - Sent Donald Lee to Boppers for Joey Galloway and Jabar Gaffney
1/3/08 - Sent Tony Scheffler, Kevin Curtis, Bears D, and 3rd round pick to Florida Red Palms for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, Jeff Reed, and 5th round pick
11/10/07 - Sent Jamal Lewis & Vincent Jackson to Bungles for Donte' Stallworth
12/31/07 - Sent Alex Smith to Warriors for Troy Smith
12/31/07 - Sent Selvin Young to Choda Soda for Najeh Davenport
12/31/07 - Sent Owen Daniels and 4th round pick to Florida Red Palms for Donald Lee
1/2/08 - Sent Donald Lee to Boppers for Joey Galloway and Jabar Gaffney
1/3/08 - Sent Tony Scheffler, Kevin Curtis, Bears D, and 3rd round pick to Florida Red Palms for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, Jeff Reed, and 5th round pick
Pretty cool. There's no way you make most of those trades in a different format. I applaud you and your league for being unique.
Thanks. You're right that there's no way I make most of those trades in a normal format. One of the great benefits of this type of league is that helps out the lesser owners who really need the help and adds some needed parity. As a general rule, the non-playoff teams can get higher draft picks and younger talent for mediocre veterans on good playoff teams.
My way around that is to consider my nucleus (Brady, S-Jax, Westbrook, Fitzgerald) and try to never touch those players even for playoff upgrades. I always deal draft picks and good-though-not-great young players for the chips I need. It forces me to be a little more creative because some owners have a nucleus full of playoff players whereas S-Jax and Fitzgerald are never there.
As you can tell, I really enjoy the format....and I really wish it would catch on in more dynasty leagues because there's considerably more strategy, less luck, and it keeps things going through the NFL playoffs.
F&L, I play in a dynasty keeper league with a salary cap and wanted to thank you for your efforts. I don't post that often, but I realized that this forum has helped me a ton this past season (finished in 2nd in my league with the team in my sig). There's so much I like about it--from the value ranking to how you analyze players--it's terrific. Please don't ever shut it down!
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 26 2007, 01:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 23 2007, 10:53 PM)
My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.
SSOG, I really like this "rule of thumb" strategy for QBs combined with some other statistics like YPA & TD:INT ratio. Do you have similar takes on evaluating RBs & WRs?
I have been reading allot of chatter this past week about Vince Young. Seems many are ready to jump ship, while others offer up the 'just give him one more year' line. I happen to have VY as my QB2 in a dynasty league, and based on the SSOG model discussed above, I'm starting to think we are now in the 'sell FAST before the bottom drops out' phase. I know we can all come up with allot of excuses, myself included, like if he just had some more weapons, etc.... But what good is a rule (like SSOG's) if you don't follow it, and try and rationalize yourself out of the wisdom it provides?
VY has played 15 games in each of the last two season, finishing 12th in FBG scoring in 2006, and 17th in 2007. So, were at that 30 game region, with no top 10 finishes. My thinking is some owners out there are still willing to give reasonable value to VY, and are willing to give him that extra year or two.
F&L, SSOG or others that read this thread, thoughts on VY?
By the way F&L, checked out your 'state of the RB's' compilation on the blog...nice work! A helpful overview and recap for sure.
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 08:29 AM)
QUOTE (Brewzers @ Dec 26 2007, 01:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 23 2007, 10:53 PM)
My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.
SSOG, I really like this "rule of thumb" strategy for QBs combined with some other statistics like YPA & TD:INT ratio. Do you have similar takes on evaluating RBs & WRs?
I have been reading allot of chatter this past week about Vince Young. Seems many are ready to jump ship, while others offer up the 'just give him one more year' line. I happen to have VY as my QB2 in a dynasty league, and based on the SSOG model discussed above, I'm starting to think we are now in the 'sell FAST before the bottom drops out' phase. I know we can all come up with allot of excuses, myself included, like if he just had some more weapons, etc.... But what good is a rule (like SSOG's) if you don't follow it, and try and rationalize yourself out of the wisdom it provides?
VY has played 15 games in each of the last two season, finishing 12th in FBG scoring in 2006, and 17th in 2007. So, were at that 30 game region, with no top 10 finishes. My thinking is some owners out there are still willing to give reasonable value to VY, and are willing to give him that extra year or two.
F&L, SSOG or others that read this thread, thoughts on VY?
By the way F&L, checked out your 'state of the RB's' compilation on the blog...nice work! A helpful overview and recap for sure.
Here's the difference between Young and why this rule may not necessarily apply. If you're banking on him being your #1 QB, then you definitely have to move him for some value (although it's definitely not at its highest now) or work on acquiring a true #1. As a #2, backup, he is perfect to keep bc he is someone that has the potential to go against this rule.
First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
1. His value isn't very high right now, so you're giving away a pretty decent backup for not very much.
2. His job as starter for the Titans is in no way in jeopardy. This is where he differs from most QB's that aren't able to make that cutoff.
3. He has enough playmaking ability, esp. as a rusher, to possibly "get it" if they do acquire a big-time FA or through a trade to possibly improve. Again, it's probably not likely in terms of fantasy production, but of all the guys this rule applies to, he is the one that I would make the exception for.
You have to take all "rules" and "formulas" with a grain of salt. Young will never likely never be a 4000 yd passer or throw for 25+ TDs. However, his running game took a big step down this year for different reasons (some known and some unknown, at least to me). If he returns to rushing for 500-600 yds and 5-6 TDs, he can make up for his lower passing #'s and still be a pretty solid fantasy starter as he was his rookie year. A 12th place finish in his rookie year without even playing a full season essentially qualifies him as having the potential to return there.
I don't own Young in either of my dynasty leagues now, but I would gladly take him on at the price he would probably go for. In fact, he was just traded in one of them (for Derek Anderson and Sidney Rice) so my chances of getting him in that league are pretty slim.
QUOTE (Gandalf @ Jan 8 2008, 05:37 AM)
F&L, I play in a dynasty keeper league with a salary cap and wanted to thank you for your efforts. I don't post that often, but I realized that this forum has helped me a ton this past season (finished in 2nd in my league with the team in my sig). There's so much I like about it--from the value ranking to how you analyze players--it's terrific. Please don't ever shut it down!
Thanks, Gandalf. Appreciate the feedback.
I don't plan on ever shutting it down, and I know that regular contributors here like SSOG, EBF, gianmarco and plenty of others have become just as important as the rankings ever were themselves. One of the reasons I was OK with moving the rankings to the blog was that the strategy discussions and player evaluations have carried the thread for some time.
Thanks to the_sig too for the complement on the blog. I plan on adding to that "state of the RBs" feature on the blog throughout the off-season, so it should be up-to-date on a regular basis. I might as well make that one its own category over on the sidebar, so it's easy to find in the future. I'll probably add a similar feature on QBs and WRs when I get time.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 8 2008, 10:54 AM)
Here's the difference between Young and why this rule may not necessarily apply. If you're banking on him being your #1 QB, then you definitely have to move him for some value (although it's definitely not at its highest now) or work on acquiring a true #1. As a #2, backup, he is perfect to keep bc he is someone that has the potential to go against this rule.
First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
1. His value isn't very high right now, so you're giving away a pretty decent backup for not very much.
2. His job as starter for the Titans is in no way in jeopardy. This is where he differs from most QB's that aren't able to make that cutoff.
3. He has enough playmaking ability, esp. as a rusher, to possibly "get it" if they do acquire a big-time FA or through a trade to possibly improve. Again, it's probably not likely in terms of fantasy production, but of all the guys this rule applies to, he is the one that I would make the exception for.
You have to take all "rules" and "formulas" with a grain of salt. Young will never likely never be a 4000 yd passer or throw for 25+ TDs. However, his running game took a big step down this year for different reasons (some known and some unknown, at least to me). If he returns to rushing for 500-600 yds and 5-6 TDs, he can make up for his lower passing #'s and still be a pretty solid fantasy starter as he was his rookie year. A 12th place finish in his rookie year without even playing a full season essentially qualifies him as having the potential to return there.
I don't own Young in either of my dynasty leagues now, but I would gladly take him on at the price he would probably go for. In fact, he was just traded in one of them (for Derek Anderson and Sidney Rice) so my chances of getting him in that league are pretty slim.
First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
1. His value isn't very high right now, so you're giving away a pretty decent backup for not very much.
2. His job as starter for the Titans is in no way in jeopardy. This is where he differs from most QB's that aren't able to make that cutoff.
3. He has enough playmaking ability, esp. as a rusher, to possibly "get it" if they do acquire a big-time FA or through a trade to possibly improve. Again, it's probably not likely in terms of fantasy production, but of all the guys this rule applies to, he is the one that I would make the exception for.
You have to take all "rules" and "formulas" with a grain of salt. Young will never likely never be a 4000 yd passer or throw for 25+ TDs. However, his running game took a big step down this year for different reasons (some known and some unknown, at least to me). If he returns to rushing for 500-600 yds and 5-6 TDs, he can make up for his lower passing #'s and still be a pretty solid fantasy starter as he was his rookie year. A 12th place finish in his rookie year without even playing a full season essentially qualifies him as having the potential to return there.
I don't own Young in either of my dynasty leagues now, but I would gladly take him on at the price he would probably go for. In fact, he was just traded in one of them (for Derek Anderson and Sidney Rice) so my chances of getting him in that league are pretty slim.
Outstanding post.
I haven't been keeping up with that Vince Young thread, but I have covered the Titans quite a few times this year, and I know I've posted several times throughout this thread discussing VY.
I don't have much to add to gianmarco's post b/c he nailed the most relevant points. But I will repeat one point I've mentioned several times and add another point from this morning's news:
1] There was a month-long window where I covered the Titans every Sunday, and I've never seen a QB lose as many passing TDs as Young did over that month long period. Between holding penalties that called back TDs and receivers either dropping passes or running the wrong route, VY could have had at least 7-9 more passing TDs just in that four game window. I realize you could point to similar situations for many QBs around the league, but I've never seen it snowball on a QB like it did with Young in that string of games. He could have easily notched 10 more TDs this season even with a rag-tag bunch of receiving options. I think VY was much better than his numbers indicate.
2] I did the morning news for rotoworld today and came across an article where Jeff Fischer declared his faith in VY and promised to address the lack of offensive weapons this off-season. Young is not an above-average passer right now, but he's also dealing with WRs who struggle to get separation and generally don't add any playmaking ability whatsoever. It's tough to compare his numbers to top tier QBs when they're throwing to Randy Moss, T.O., Chad Johnson/Housh, Colston, and Holmes/Ward.
I mean VY is basically throwing to Brady's receivers from last season if you think about it. The Titans aren't going to bring in Randy Moss, but they do plan to actively pursue playmakers. VY is no Tom Brady, but I think there's nowhere to go but up for him.
gianmarco,
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 8 2008, 10:55 AM)
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 8 2008, 10:54 AM)
Here's the difference between Young and why this rule may not necessarily apply. If you're banking on him being your #1 QB, then you definitely have to move him for some value (although it's definitely not at its highest now) or work on acquiring a true #1. As a #2, backup, he is perfect to keep bc he is someone that has the potential to go against this rule.
First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
1. His value isn't very high right now, so you're giving away a pretty decent backup for not very much.
2. His job as starter for the Titans is in no way in jeopardy. This is where he differs from most QB's that aren't able to make that cutoff.
3. He has enough playmaking ability, esp. as a rusher, to possibly "get it" if they do acquire a big-time FA or through a trade to possibly improve. Again, it's probably not likely in terms of fantasy production, but of all the guys this rule applies to, he is the one that I would make the exception for.
You have to take all "rules" and "formulas" with a grain of salt. Young will never likely never be a 4000 yd passer or throw for 25+ TDs. However, his running game took a big step down this year for different reasons (some known and some unknown, at least to me). If he returns to rushing for 500-600 yds and 5-6 TDs, he can make up for his lower passing #'s and still be a pretty solid fantasy starter as he was his rookie year. A 12th place finish in his rookie year without even playing a full season essentially qualifies him as having the potential to return there.
I don't own Young in either of my dynasty leagues now, but I would gladly take him on at the price he would probably go for. In fact, he was just traded in one of them (for Derek Anderson and Sidney Rice) so my chances of getting him in that league are pretty slim.
First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
1. His value isn't very high right now, so you're giving away a pretty decent backup for not very much.
2. His job as starter for the Titans is in no way in jeopardy. This is where he differs from most QB's that aren't able to make that cutoff.
3. He has enough playmaking ability, esp. as a rusher, to possibly "get it" if they do acquire a big-time FA or through a trade to possibly improve. Again, it's probably not likely in terms of fantasy production, but of all the guys this rule applies to, he is the one that I would make the exception for.
You have to take all "rules" and "formulas" with a grain of salt. Young will never likely never be a 4000 yd passer or throw for 25+ TDs. However, his running game took a big step down this year for different reasons (some known and some unknown, at least to me). If he returns to rushing for 500-600 yds and 5-6 TDs, he can make up for his lower passing #'s and still be a pretty solid fantasy starter as he was his rookie year. A 12th place finish in his rookie year without even playing a full season essentially qualifies him as having the potential to return there.
I don't own Young in either of my dynasty leagues now, but I would gladly take him on at the price he would probably go for. In fact, he was just traded in one of them (for Derek Anderson and Sidney Rice) so my chances of getting him in that league are pretty slim.
Outstanding post.
I haven't been keeping up with that Vince Young thread, but I have covered the Titans quite a few times this year, and I know I've posted several times throughout this thread discussing VY.
I don't have much to add to gianmarco's post b/c he nailed the most relevant points. But I will repeat one point I've mentioned several times and add another point from this morning's news:
1] There was a month-long window where I covered the Titans every Sunday, and I've never seen a QB lose as many passing TDs as Young did over that month long period. Between holding penalties that called back TDs and receivers either dropping passes or running the wrong route, VY could have had at least 7-9 more passing TDs just in that four game window. I realize you could point to similar situations for many QBs around the league, but I've never seen it snowball on a QB like it did with Young in that string of games. He could have easily notched 10 more TDs this season even with a rag-tag bunch of receiving options. I think VY was much better than his numbers indicate.
2] I did the morning news for rotoworld today and came across an article where Jeff Fischer declared his faith in VY and promised to address the lack of offensive weapons this off-season. Young is not an above-average passer right now, but he's also dealing with WRs who struggle to get separation and generally don't add any playmaking ability whatsoever. It's tough to compare his numbers to top tier QBs when they're throwing to Randy Moss, T.O., Chad Johnson/Housh, Colston, and Holmes/Ward.
I mean VY is basically throwing to Brady's receivers from last season if you think about it. The Titans aren't going to bring in Randy Moss, but they do plan to actively pursue playmakers. VY is no Tom Brady, but I think there's nowhere to go but up for him.
F&L, thanks for the additional comments on VY. You and gianmarco make some compelling points. Lots of food for thought here....
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 11:04 AM)
gianmarco,
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Here's the thing, though. He pretty much did make the top 10 in his rookie year. He finished #12 but he did not start the entire season. I'm not sure about your scoring system or what you're using, but I would look at his PPG ranking for last year and see if he falls in the top 10. If he does, there you go. He saw very limited action in game 1 of 2006, came in after the rout was on in game 2 but did get some stats to contribute to his final #'s, and didn't play at all in game 3. So he essentially finished #12 with only 14 games played. Factor that in, and I bet he's top 10.
In your situation, with Brees ahead of him, I doubt I would move him unless I got extremely good value. That's a great QB situation to have and one you probably won't have to address for quite a while.
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 12:04 PM)
gianmarco,
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
I don't usually go for the kind of statistical arguments SSOG makes, but this one looks to be a good one to me. As far as VY being an exception, the only point in his favor is that he is a running QB and that if he runs more in the future he could get back to his rookie performance, but even that wasn't enough to get him top 10 production and we all know running QBs have a higher injury likelihood. He may crack the top 10 in his career, but as far as being an elite QB who will really help your fantasy team, I don't see it and I agree that this is the time to unload him if you can a good deal like a first round rookie pick. I would deal him for Derek Anderson in a second--and note--DA has already matched SSOG's requirement in his first year as a starter.
QUOTE (az_prof @ Jan 8 2008, 12:02 PM)
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 12:04 PM)
gianmarco,
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
I don't usually go for the kind of statistical arguments SSOG makes, but this one looks to be a good one to me. As far as VY being an exception, the only point in his favor is that he is a running QB and that if he runs more in the future he could get back to his rookie performance, but even that wasn't enough to get him top 10 production and we all know running QBs have a higher injury likelihood. He may crack the top 10 in his career, but as far as being an elite QB who will really help your fantasy team, I don't see it and I agree that this is the time to unload him if you can a good deal like a first round rookie pick. I would deal him for Derek Anderson in a second--and note--DA has already matched SSOG's requirement in his first year as a starter.
Again, in my league scoring, VY was 9th in PPG in 2006 (since he didn't play 2 games in the year). And that was in a league with bonus scoring for 300 yd passing games, something that HURTS VY. In another league where all TDs are 6 pts (again, hurts VY since he his rushing TDs are worth more in leagues where passing TDs are 4 pts), he was 11th in total pts and 8th when adjusted for the 2 games he missed. Using those requirements, he HAS matched SSOG's requirement just as much as DA has. Or am I missing something that is excluding VY from making it?
I'll throw in my two cents on VY. He certainly is a bi-polar topic, there is very little middle ground. This season was obviously disappointing. I remain on the optimistic side, here is why:
1) I watched him first hand, progress as a passer in college. I know college is an easier gig than the NFL, but my point is that by his last season at Texas, I was confident with Vince passing the ball. I couldn't say that about him prior to the 2005 season, in fact the opposite, I cringed everytime he dropped back and threw the ball. In 2005, he passed for 3000+ yards, 9.34 YPA, 26 TDs with only 10 Ints, in addition, he ran for 1000+ and 12 TDs. It took him 4 years to reach that point of dual threat mastery at the NCAA level (redshirt frosh plus 3 years). When he got there, when the light bulb turned on, he was a man amongst boys and it was obvious. Randall Cunningham (5 years as FF QB #1, 2 or 3) & Steve Young (4 years of FF QB #1) achieved that dual threat pinnacle in the NFL and I believe that VY has the atheletic ability to do the same. We saw more glimpses in his rookie year with Drew Bennett & Brandon Jones as the WRs (not great but better than this year), which leads to my next point.
2) I know it seems like a worn out excuse, but VY really didn't have any WR threats this year. Someone posted earlier about the dropped TD passes and that is very accurate. I watched every Titans game this year and it was heartbreaking to watch. The key to Vince Youngs value is his ability/threat to run. In order for the Titans to maximize that threat, they need a WR or two who can stretch the defense and open lanes. That doesn't mean VY has to run, but if defenses are going to dedicate an LB or safety to spy on Young, he has got to make them pay through the air. That didn't happen this year and hence the crux of most VY debates, is that failure on Young or is it the WRs? I'm betting that its not Young. TENN proved this year that without a WR threat, Vince Young is a below average QB. I sure would like to see TENN test the other side of the equation in 2008.
1) I watched him first hand, progress as a passer in college. I know college is an easier gig than the NFL, but my point is that by his last season at Texas, I was confident with Vince passing the ball. I couldn't say that about him prior to the 2005 season, in fact the opposite, I cringed everytime he dropped back and threw the ball. In 2005, he passed for 3000+ yards, 9.34 YPA, 26 TDs with only 10 Ints, in addition, he ran for 1000+ and 12 TDs. It took him 4 years to reach that point of dual threat mastery at the NCAA level (redshirt frosh plus 3 years). When he got there, when the light bulb turned on, he was a man amongst boys and it was obvious. Randall Cunningham (5 years as FF QB #1, 2 or 3) & Steve Young (4 years of FF QB #1) achieved that dual threat pinnacle in the NFL and I believe that VY has the atheletic ability to do the same. We saw more glimpses in his rookie year with Drew Bennett & Brandon Jones as the WRs (not great but better than this year), which leads to my next point.
2) I know it seems like a worn out excuse, but VY really didn't have any WR threats this year. Someone posted earlier about the dropped TD passes and that is very accurate. I watched every Titans game this year and it was heartbreaking to watch. The key to Vince Youngs value is his ability/threat to run. In order for the Titans to maximize that threat, they need a WR or two who can stretch the defense and open lanes. That doesn't mean VY has to run, but if defenses are going to dedicate an LB or safety to spy on Young, he has got to make them pay through the air. That didn't happen this year and hence the crux of most VY debates, is that failure on Young or is it the WRs? I'm betting that its not Young. TENN proved this year that without a WR threat, Vince Young is a below average QB. I sure would like to see TENN test the other side of the equation in 2008.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 8 2008, 11:29 AM)
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 11:04 AM)
gianmarco,
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Thanks for the reply on VY. I'd like to hear anyone else's comments on evaluating VY.
I realize the value in taking every 'rule' with a grain of salt, but I think SSOG made a compelling statistical argument though. If a guy doesn't make top 10 in the first 30-35 games, 80% (or so) of the time, he will never make it. I guess I've sold myself on this being the case for VY. You are right, he makes a hell of a QB2 (He is behind Brees for me), but I ultimately think he may be too pricey a QB2 to hold, if he never is able to get his game into the elite level (top 10 at the least). To me, SSOG's argument rings true here in that VY has many guys lining up still willing to add in all the caveats and "if's"....if he gets the weapons...if he returns to form in the running game, etc.....I guess that is why I'm thinking about moving him. Ultimately, I guess my leaguemates will determine his value. If I can get good value this offseason, I'll probably take it.
I guess I'm haunted by SSOG's reference to Alex Smith. I thought he was a huge buy low going into this season, and he HAS allot of weapons around him. My worry is that if VY doesn't have allot of the "if's" break his way next year, his value will be even worse.
Here's the thing, though. He pretty much did make the top 10 in his rookie year. He finished #12 but he did not start the entire season. I'm not sure about your scoring system or what you're using, but I would look at his PPG ranking for last year and see if he falls in the top 10. If he does, there you go. He saw very limited action in game 1 of 2006, came in after the rout was on in game 2 but did get some stats to contribute to his final #'s, and didn't play at all in game 3. So he essentially finished #12 with only 14 games played. Factor that in, and I bet he's top 10.
In your situation, with Brees ahead of him, I doubt I would move him unless I got extremely good value. That's a great QB situation to have and one you probably won't have to address for quite a while.
I typically don't go for the 'extrapolate ppg to a whole season' type of argument, but admittedly I was only only using the year end ranking based on FBG scoring. I checked in my actual league, and in 2006 VY came in as QB10 with NO adjustments, or would have been QB7 based on replacing his missed game and WK1 with his yearly ppg.
That was lazy on my part for just looking at FBG scoring as opposed to my own leagues system. Thanks for the reality check gianmarco
SSOG,
I know you're an enlightened MJD supporter. I've never owned him, but I've always appreciated him both as an NFL player and as a potentially explosive dynasty target.
Here's my question to you as a MJD owner: would you trade him straight up for Joseph Addai right now?
I know conventional wisdom is that this is a no-brainer, and you have to take the full-time back in the Indy offense. But I don't think I could pull the trigger if I had MJD and his current TD-per-week production plus the potential to be so much more penciled into my lineup for the next five years.
I know you're an enlightened MJD supporter. I've never owned him, but I've always appreciated him both as an NFL player and as a potentially explosive dynasty target.
Here's my question to you as a MJD owner: would you trade him straight up for Joseph Addai right now?
I know conventional wisdom is that this is a no-brainer, and you have to take the full-time back in the Indy offense. But I don't think I could pull the trigger if I had MJD and his current TD-per-week production plus the potential to be so much more penciled into my lineup for the next five years.
Curious who I can get selling Randy Moss and/or Willis McGahee on a high year.
I certainly wouldn't trade MJD for Addai. In fact, only ADP, LT, and Westbrook would really get me thinking about trading MJD. He's just an incredible talent who's already sound in every aspect you want in a RB: vision, quickness, durability, speed, hands, and even blocking ability.
QUOTE (valhallan @ Jan 8 2008, 11:20 PM)
I certainly wouldn't trade MJD for Addai. In fact, only ADP, LT, and Westbrook would really get me thinking about trading MJD. He's just an incredible talent who's already sound in every aspect you want in a RB: vision, quickness, durability, speed, hands, and even blocking ability.
That's pretty much where I'm at right now. I put Gore up in that neighborhood too, but it's pretty obvious that MJD is a special talent.
For every time that I tell myself he's still only a part-time player, I also have to tell myself that Pocket Hercules amazingly averages a TD per game with those limited touches.
F & L - great thread
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
I can understand Brandon Jacobs has shown something these last couple weeks and has some potential for bigger games, but he's hardly reliable. I think he buried owners for a good part of the season. He's the latest incarnation of Fred Taylor. When on the field, a fantasy point generator, but your holding your breath everytime he gets tackled. He looks to have inconsistent hands like Freddy too. Class risk/reward guy. At the same time, he still feels like an experiment to me. The type thats pushed aside after a couple years.
Lendale's younger and a major part of an unspectacular game plan. But, he's a durable grinder playing for a great defensive minded coach. I'm not a play-it-safe kinda guy but LenDale just seems like a better #2 RB on your dynasty team. On top of that he's listed below Jamal Lewis who many of us dynasty folk would agree is a sell high and just ahead of Selvin Young whose job security is comparable to that of reality TV star - maybe a season if they don't get kicked off, possibly a sequel, but rarely do they ever get their own show.
"What do ya say? What do ya know?"
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
I can understand Brandon Jacobs has shown something these last couple weeks and has some potential for bigger games, but he's hardly reliable. I think he buried owners for a good part of the season. He's the latest incarnation of Fred Taylor. When on the field, a fantasy point generator, but your holding your breath everytime he gets tackled. He looks to have inconsistent hands like Freddy too. Class risk/reward guy. At the same time, he still feels like an experiment to me. The type thats pushed aside after a couple years.
Lendale's younger and a major part of an unspectacular game plan. But, he's a durable grinder playing for a great defensive minded coach. I'm not a play-it-safe kinda guy but LenDale just seems like a better #2 RB on your dynasty team. On top of that he's listed below Jamal Lewis who many of us dynasty folk would agree is a sell high and just ahead of Selvin Young whose job security is comparable to that of reality TV star - maybe a season if they don't get kicked off, possibly a sequel, but rarely do they ever get their own show.
"What do ya say? What do ya know?"
QUOTE (greeklightnin @ Jan 8 2008, 11:26 PM)
F & L - great thread
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
I can understand Brandon Jacobs has shown something these last couple weeks and has some potential for bigger games, but he's hardly reliable. I think he buried owners for a good part of the season. He's the latest incarnation of Fred Taylor. When on the field, a fantasy point generator, but your holding your breath everytime he gets tackled. He looks to have inconsistent hands like Freddy too. Class risk/reward guy. At the same time, he still feels like an experiment to me. The type thats pushed aside after a couple years.
Lendale's younger and a major part of an unspectacular game plan. But, he's a durable grinder playing for a great defensive minded coach. I'm not a play-it-safe kinda guy but LenDale just seems like a better #2 RB on your dynasty team.
"What do ya say? What do ya know?"
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
I can understand Brandon Jacobs has shown something these last couple weeks and has some potential for bigger games, but he's hardly reliable. I think he buried owners for a good part of the season. He's the latest incarnation of Fred Taylor. When on the field, a fantasy point generator, but your holding your breath everytime he gets tackled. He looks to have inconsistent hands like Freddy too. Class risk/reward guy. At the same time, he still feels like an experiment to me. The type thats pushed aside after a couple years.
Lendale's younger and a major part of an unspectacular game plan. But, he's a durable grinder playing for a great defensive minded coach. I'm not a play-it-safe kinda guy but LenDale just seems like a better #2 RB on your dynasty team.
"What do ya say? What do ya know?"
Thanks, greeklightnin.
Brandon Jacobs is a lot more dynamic and I think a lot more talented. When he's healthy, I would feel comfortable starting him every week. The advantages he has over White in addition to the aforementioned are: better chance for a monster game, better chance for a monster season, better chance for receiving yards, better chance for a TD, not reliant upon the defense or the coaching staff. I agree that Jacobs is an injury concern, but I'm not sure about the Fred Taylor comparison. Freddie got the unfortunate nickname, but he really wasn't all that fragile in his career. I'm OK with Jacobs as a risk/reward guy.
We've covered LenDale quite a bit before, and my opinion hasn't really changed much at all. I had him as a great buy low entering the season, and I thought he was the quintessential sell high after he reeled off three straight 100-yard games mid-way through the season. He's not dynamic enough, he needs 22-25 carries to put up decent points, he's generally not going to get you passing yardage or receptions, and he's extremely reliant on his defense shutting down the other team's offense to garner consistent carries. He was dogpoo when Haynesworth was out of the lineup. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him because it's tough to tell how well the Titans are going to do each week. And that's really the bottom line for me: I don't want LenDale White anywhere near my starting lineup.
Oh, and when you consider their respective YPC's, you could certainly make the argument that I have White too high and Jacobs too low:
Jacobs 2007: 5.0 ypc
White 2007: 3.6 ypc
F&L: What's your take on Martz becoming the 49ers coordinator?
I know that Martz is known as a pass-happy coordinator. But I think this has to help Gore, Vernon Davis, and even Alex Smith. While SF is talent-starved at certain key positions, it occurs to me that this move upgrades most of the SF offense. We saw what Ted Tolner's influence did in just one game vs. AZ. You have to think that Martz can at least get this offense back up to the middle of the pack.
I know that Martz is known as a pass-happy coordinator. But I think this has to help Gore, Vernon Davis, and even Alex Smith. While SF is talent-starved at certain key positions, it occurs to me that this move upgrades most of the SF offense. We saw what Ted Tolner's influence did in just one game vs. AZ. You have to think that Martz can at least get this offense back up to the middle of the pack.
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 8 2008, 09:29 AM)
I have been reading allot of chatter this past week about Vince Young. Seems many are ready to jump ship, while others offer up the 'just give him one more year' line. I happen to have VY as my QB2 in a dynasty league, and based on the SSOG model discussed above, I'm starting to think we are now in the 'sell FAST before the bottom drops out' phase. I know we can all come up with allot of excuses, myself included, like if he just had some more weapons, etc.... But what good is a rule (like SSOG's) if you don't follow it, and try and rationalize yourself out of the wisdom it provides?
VY has played 15 games in each of the last two season, finishing 12th in FBG scoring in 2006, and 17th in 2007. So, were at that 30 game region, with no top 10 finishes. My thinking is some owners out there are still willing to give reasonable value to VY, and are willing to give him that extra year or two.
F&L, SSOG or others that read this thread, thoughts on VY?
By the way F&L, checked out your 'state of the RB's' compilation on the blog...nice work! A helpful overview and recap for sure.
VY has played 15 games in each of the last two season, finishing 12th in FBG scoring in 2006, and 17th in 2007. So, were at that 30 game region, with no top 10 finishes. My thinking is some owners out there are still willing to give reasonable value to VY, and are willing to give him that extra year or two.
F&L, SSOG or others that read this thread, thoughts on VY?
By the way F&L, checked out your 'state of the RB's' compilation on the blog...nice work! A helpful overview and recap for sure.
Vince Young is a hold, in my mind. His PPG numbers in his first season as a starter qualify for the top 10, and his upside is incredibly sexy. In most scoring systems, Young could only pass for 2800 yards and rush for 600, and he'd be as valuable as a 4,000 yard passer. I feel like mobile QBs just have such an obscene advantage in fantasy football that I'm willing to take a lot more risks, even if it's not a high-percentage play, in order to get some of that action. Here's the list of #1 fantasy QBs every year since 1987: Cunningham, Cunningham, Majkowski, Cunningham, Moon, Young, Young, Young, Favre, Favre, Favre, Young, Warner, Culpepper, Warner, Culpepper, Culpepper, Culpepper, Palmer, Manning, Brady. Cunningham, Young, and Culpepper account for more than half of those first-place finishes all by themselves. Expanding this list to top-3 finishes would add a ton more finishes by Young and Cunningham as well as notable names such as Elway and McNabb. If you want to be a fantasy uberstud, you either need to threaten 40 TD passes (and hope the rest of the league doesn't do the same), or else you need to be very mobile. It is a SIGNIFICANT competitive advantage. Vince Young's fantasy upside right now is something in the order of five #1 fantasy finishes. I honestly don't believe there's a single QB in the entire league with his upside right now, and that includes both Brady and Manning. If you hold on to Young, and you're wrong, then you've burned a roster spot and lost some value. If you hold him and you're right, you just set yourself up to be the dominant fantasy franchise in your league for the next 5-10 years.
Besides, it's not a science. I'm high on Cutler, for instance, despite the fact that he finished 11th this season. I was high on Roethlisberger despite failing to reach the plateau. If a QB is clearly showing me SOMETHING, even if it's not translating into fantasy numbers, then I'm going to hold him. It's only when you're holding on to the QB for no reason other than blind hope that things are looking bad.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 8 2008, 10:21 PM)
SSOG,
I know you're an enlightened MJD supporter. I've never owned him, but I've always appreciated him both as an NFL player and as a potentially explosive dynasty target.
Here's my question to you as a MJD owner: would you trade him straight up for Joseph Addai right now?
I know conventional wisdom is that this is a no-brainer, and you have to take the full-time back in the Indy offense. But I don't think I could pull the trigger if I had MJD and his current TD-per-week production plus the potential to be so much more penciled into my lineup for the next five years.
I know you're an enlightened MJD supporter. I've never owned him, but I've always appreciated him both as an NFL player and as a potentially explosive dynasty target.
Here's my question to you as a MJD owner: would you trade him straight up for Joseph Addai right now?
I know conventional wisdom is that this is a no-brainer, and you have to take the full-time back in the Indy offense. But I don't think I could pull the trigger if I had MJD and his current TD-per-week production plus the potential to be so much more penciled into my lineup for the next five years.
I took MJD 13th overall in my startup dynasty draft this year, and I considered it an absolute steal despite having much "better" picks still on the table (guys like Portis, Alexander, all of the WRs, McGahee). I received several offers for him early in the season when he was struggling and laughed them off, saying that, in my mind, "selling low" on MJD was merely getting a top-10 player in return instead of asking for a top-5 guy. In the end, I finally wound up pulling the trigger on a move that sent MJD in order to get me Randy Moss. I was 2-4 at the time, and the trade propelled me to a blistering finish (7 straight wins to end the season, including 5 straight top-2 weekly finishes and the season-long total points title). My team was deep enough that I absorbed the loss of MJD without blinking (my other RBs were Westy and Lynch while struggles with Walker and Evans were forcing me to start Marty Booker).
Despite all of this, I have been absolutely sick over the trade all season long. MJD is a force of nature. Everything Reggie Bush was supposed to be, Jones-Drew is... and then some. He's fast, he's shifty, he's got incredible hands, he's a devastating returner... and at USC, LenDale White would have been pulled off the field in short yardage situations in favor of MJD. Even moreso, he's just one of those guys who I love to watch. There are some players that I like owning because I simply love the way they play the game. Watching how they carry themselves on the field just makes me happy. It's impossible not to love the fire and energy that MJD plays with, to the point where I'd almost rather lose with MJD than win with anyone else. I make some joking references to "my guys" from time to time, but MJD is very definitely one of "my guys", and I'm going to make a concerted effort to get him back this offseason, regardless of cost.
Thinking about it, I don't think I'd trade him straight up for Addai. All Addai has going for him is his system, and Jacksonville's offensive system is probably even better than Indy's (it's just that MJD is currently sharing the load). I've seen a lot of things this year that concern me about MJD- he's not had the power he had last year, and he's been lacking the home runs, although his receiving, blocking, and returning are all still off the charts... but in the end, MJD is essentially what Reggie Bush should have been. Whatever people were willing to give up for Bush, that's what they should be giving up for Jones-Drew.
QUOTE (greeklightnin @ Jan 8 2008, 11:26 PM)
F & L - great thread
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
I was wondering why the disparity in rankings of these 2:
[60] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - 1st & 2nd down
[40] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - 1st & 2nd down
Check out YPC, TD%, Success Rate, and fantasy PPG. Just because two players play in a similar role doesn't mean they should have similar value. Jacobs is just dramatically more talented than White is.
SSOG, will you trade Westbrook if that's the price for MJD? How about Lynch?
QUOTE (sheerterror @ Jan 9 2008, 01:31 AM)
SSOG, will you trade Westbrook if that's the price for MJD? How about Lynch?
Westbrook, no. Lynch, yes.
QUOTE (EBF @ Jan 3 2008, 08:07 PM)
QUOTE (mozzy84 @ Jan 3 2008, 04:03 PM)
F&L and others,
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
whats your feeling on this coming years draft class as of right now? I don't follow college really close but just looking at the prelim names/mock drafts if you don't get mccfadden it might be a really good year to trade some picks off for vet players. Is the talent deeper than I think? Or is it to early in the offseason to even think like this?
CODE
I have awards night coming up in 2 dynasty leagues and people will be really drunk and ready to make dumb trades
I think it will end up being a pretty good group when all is said and done.
QBs
At QB you have three guys who look like first round picks: Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, and Andre Woodson. I'm not really wild about any of those guys, but they should all come off the board in the first 20 picks of the draft and maybe one or two of them will develop into solid NFL starters. The depth is strong this year with Chad Henne, Colt Brennan, Erik Ainge, and a few other guys likely coming off the board in rounds 2-4. These guys are not worth a top 15 rookie pick, but may offer a better risk/reward proposition than the big name signal callers. Henne and Ainge are especially intriguing since they're successful four year starters at major, major BCS schools. I won't be surprised if one of those two becomes a steal. So while this class lacks a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer type player, there are enough sleepers to keep the draft interesting.
RBs
The RB picture is still developing as underclassmen announce their intentions. Darren McFadden is the big name attraction and the only RB likely to go in the top 10 of the draft. He has some superstar qualities and a very high ceiling, but comes with significantly more bust risk than the typical top 15 RB prospect. He may not have the bulk to carry the load in the NFL. If I had the 1.01 pick I would at least consider trying to sell it for market value since I think McFadden's perceived value exceeds his actual value.
Jonathan Stewart is the probable RB2 and could go anywhere from 10-25 on draft day. He is a physical specimen with a truly freakish combination of speed and strength. He has the body type and running style to handle multiple seasons of 300+ carries. He is not quite a sure thing, but is nevertheless an immediate top 15 back in dynasty leagues. It's relatively unlikely that he'll be a complete bust and he has a very high ceiling. He reminds me a little bit of Fred Taylor and Rudi Johnson. Some scouts compare him to a young Jamal Lewis.
There seems to be a little bit of a dropoff after those two. Rashard Mendenhall offers an elite combination of size, strength, and speed. He should be a first round pick, but appears to lack ideal running instincts. He reminds me of Joseph Addai and Julius Jones. Those comparisons probably represent his ceiling and his floor.
Felix Jones could be the third back taken if he decides to declare. He has been very productive in the SEC and offers the kind of compact build and shifty running style that translate well to the NFL. How high he goes in the draft will likely depend on his ability to convince NFL people that he's an every-down player. His ceiling is Brian Westbrook. His floor is Kevin Faulk.
Jamaal Charles is probably next in line and could even leapfrog some of the guys currently listed ahead of him. He had a dominant campaign and offers world class speed coupled with good quickness and running skills. Like Jones, he'll have to answer questions about his ability to carry the load in the NFL. Teams may view him as a change-of-pace guy, which would hurt his draft stock.
Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, James Davis, and Chris Johnson are probable first day picks. All of them offer interesting potential, but none of them are locks to succeed. Matt Forte and Ryan Torain are two quality sleepers who should come off the board in rounds 3 or 4. Tashard Choice, Yvenson Bernard, Mike Hart, and Allen Patrick are likely day two selections.
So basically you have McFadden and Stewart at the top of the heap. They will probably be the prized commodities when rookie drafts roll around. Mendenhall, Jones, and Charles all offer starting potential and should be top 20-40 picks. The third and fourth tiers are packed with overachievers and sleepers. It's likely that we'll get a Marion Barber or Ryan Grant from that group, but most of those guys should be viewed as future backups.
WRs
I'm not as solid on the WRs as I am on the RBs or QBs. My initial impression is that this group lacks star power, but will eventually yield a handful of productive pro receivers when all is said and done.
There is no Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald in this class. As of right now there doesn't appear to be a clear consensus top WR. DeSean Jackson goes first in a lot of mocks, but he's a better return man than receiver and may be a little overrated by most pundits. Malcolm Kelly offers tantalizing ability and will probably be a first round pick. The downside with him is that he seems to play a little soft and may lack ideal football skills. Adarius Bowman and Early Doucet also have first round potential. Bowman is a big blue collar possession WR. Doucet is a speedy athlete who had been overshadowed by Bowe and Davis. I liked him coming out of high school, but haven't seen enough of him in college to have much of an opinion. Mario Manningham is another potential first round pick if he declares.
There will be a big chunk of WR value to be had in rounds 2-4. Some of the guys who could go in that range: Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Keenan Burton, Davone Bess, Josh Morgan, Eddie Royal, Lavelle Hawkins, Harry Douglas, and Andre Caldwell. I'm still doing my homework on these guys, but will have a lot more to say about them in the coming months.
People will say that there is no WR talent in this class. I disagree and think this class could resemble the 2006 group. Everyone thought that WR class stunk, but it's already produced Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Marshall. There will be talent players in this group. They just won't have the hype of Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald.
Overall
The story of this year's rookie drafts will be the RB class. This could be a year where the top 5-6 guys off the board in dynasty leagues are all running backs. This is partially because the RB depth is better than average and partially because there don't appear to be any surefire impact players at WR or QB. So it looks like the value will be focused in the top 4-5 picks while the difference in actual value between picks in the 5-10 range and picks in the 10-20 range could be minimal. As always, getting value from rookie picks outside the top 5-6 will depend largely on an owner's ability to identify talent.
great post, thanks man
So, I was thinking tonight about a couple of players and some things for next year and an idea crossed my mind. A big part of dynasty leagues is obviously trading and making sure you're getting good value. I know lots of the posts are often trying to gauge a player's value. I wonder if there were a way to incorporate that into the rankings without getting too cluttered. While it would be pretty difficult to do an extensive list, I came up with 2 possibilites.
1. Draft picks are some of the most difficult to value, both in terms of future value (like during the season and now) and close to draft time when you can attach actual players and know where they are going. However, we still see lots of trades that take place with them throughout the year. So how much is a tier 3 WR worth in terms of a 2008 draft pick? It wouldn't necessarily need to be done for each and every player, but at least for some tiers ythere could be a minimum draft pick(s) that you would need to move those players. For example, next to the tier 4 WR's (Cotchery, S. Moss, Roddy White, D. Driver, Welker, etc.), there could put something like "need pick 1.3 or higher" or ">1.3" or ">1.6 and any other 1st round pick"
Another possible way to incorporate the draft picks in the rankings is to actually put them in the rankings themselves (at least the 1st round picks). This may be a little more tedious and much more difficult to judge, but again, it would at least be a guideline. So, for example, looking at the rankings of RBs, whichever guy you'd be willing to give up for the 1.1 pick, then actually list 2008 1.1 pick right above him. For last year, knowing that it would be AP, that 2008 1.1 would actually be ranked pretty high. I know once you start getting past a certain # of draft spots, it gets tough trying to figure who might be there, but again, it gives some relative value. So right now, where would the 2008 1.1 rank on the RB list, the WR list, the QB list?
A final way to do it is an actual separate "draft pick ranking" like a separate position. For each pick, you could post the minimum player you should GET for that pick and the maximum player you would GIVE for that pick (for each position, obviously). So, for example:
1.1 pick--Minimum to GET for the pick --- RB-->Jacobs (or better), WR-->Holt (or better), QB-->Hasselbeck (or better).
1.1 pick--Maximum to GIVE for the pick --- RB--<>
1. Draft picks are some of the most difficult to value, both in terms of future value (like during the season and now) and close to draft time when you can attach actual players and know where they are going. However, we still see lots of trades that take place with them throughout the year. So how much is a tier 3 WR worth in terms of a 2008 draft pick? It wouldn't necessarily need to be done for each and every player, but at least for some tiers ythere could be a minimum draft pick(s) that you would need to move those players. For example, next to the tier 4 WR's (Cotchery, S. Moss, Roddy White, D. Driver, Welker, etc.), there could put something like "need pick 1.3 or higher" or ">1.3" or ">1.6 and any other 1st round pick"
Another possible way to incorporate the draft picks in the rankings is to actually put them in the rankings themselves (at least the 1st round picks). This may be a little more tedious and much more difficult to judge, but again, it would at least be a guideline. So, for example, looking at the rankings of RBs, whichever guy you'd be willing to give up for the 1.1 pick, then actually list 2008 1.1 pick right above him. For last year, knowing that it would be AP, that 2008 1.1 would actually be ranked pretty high. I know once you start getting past a certain # of draft spots, it gets tough trying to figure who might be there, but again, it gives some relative value. So right now, where would the 2008 1.1 rank on the RB list, the WR list, the QB list?
A final way to do it is an actual separate "draft pick ranking" like a separate position. For each pick, you could post the minimum player you should GET for that pick and the maximum player you would GIVE for that pick (for each position, obviously). So, for example:
1.1 pick--Minimum to GET for the pick --- RB-->Jacobs (or better), WR-->Holt (or better), QB-->Hasselbeck (or better).
1.1 pick--Maximum to GIVE for the pick --- RB--
It's very difficult to put a value on rookie picks since their value is largely dependent on an owner's ability to make a quality selection. There are ALWAYS good players available at almost every single pick. This year is a great example. Round 4 of a rookie draft in one of my 12 team PPR leagues yielded the following picks:
4.05 - Trent Edwards
4.09 - James Jones
James Jones and Trent Edwards, arguably two of the top 10 offensive rookies in this class, were still on the board after the first 40 picks had been made. This sort of thing happens quite often.
That being the case, I think it's really hard to put an objective value on a rookie pick. You could do a study and figure out a rough average value for each pick (that was already done by a poster on this site named beto). Yet I think that approach has limited value since it assumes that all owners are equal in their ability to identify talent.
In my experience, the good teams with low draft picks often do better in the draft than the bad teams with high draft picks since the good teams are managed by better owners who make better decisions.
I think the only universal conclusions you can draw are as follows:
The top 3-5 picks are always going to carry a ton of trade value and will yield a good player more often than not. That's been the case in recent years with AP/Lynch/Calvin, Bush/Maroney/White/Williams/Addai, Cadillac/Ronnie/Benson, KJ/Jackson/Fitz, and Rogers/LJ/Andre/McGahee. The bust rate is pretty low here with probably only 20-30% of these picks truly flopping.
After the top 3-5 picks, the value drops substantially. There's usually not a tremendous difference in talent level between the guys who are available at 1.06 and the guys who are available at 2.06. So while even a poor owner will make a good pick outside the top 5 every now and then, the value of picks outside the top 5 depends largely on the quality of the man making the selection. It follows that good owners should probably value those draft picks more than bad owners and bad owners should probably consider trading their picks to good owners in return for proven talent.
That said, the viable talent seems to drop off after about 25-30 picks (in non-IDP leagues). So you're facing an uphill battle from that point on no matter who you are.
4.05 - Trent Edwards
4.09 - James Jones
James Jones and Trent Edwards, arguably two of the top 10 offensive rookies in this class, were still on the board after the first 40 picks had been made. This sort of thing happens quite often.
That being the case, I think it's really hard to put an objective value on a rookie pick. You could do a study and figure out a rough average value for each pick (that was already done by a poster on this site named beto). Yet I think that approach has limited value since it assumes that all owners are equal in their ability to identify talent.
In my experience, the good teams with low draft picks often do better in the draft than the bad teams with high draft picks since the good teams are managed by better owners who make better decisions.
I think the only universal conclusions you can draw are as follows:
The top 3-5 picks are always going to carry a ton of trade value and will yield a good player more often than not. That's been the case in recent years with AP/Lynch/Calvin, Bush/Maroney/White/Williams/Addai, Cadillac/Ronnie/Benson, KJ/Jackson/Fitz, and Rogers/LJ/Andre/McGahee. The bust rate is pretty low here with probably only 20-30% of these picks truly flopping.
After the top 3-5 picks, the value drops substantially. There's usually not a tremendous difference in talent level between the guys who are available at 1.06 and the guys who are available at 2.06. So while even a poor owner will make a good pick outside the top 5 every now and then, the value of picks outside the top 5 depends largely on the quality of the man making the selection. It follows that good owners should probably value those draft picks more than bad owners and bad owners should probably consider trading their picks to good owners in return for proven talent.
That said, the viable talent seems to drop off after about 25-30 picks (in non-IDP leagues). So you're facing an uphill battle from that point on no matter who you are.
I understand what you're saying EBF, and I think that may be why it's never been tried (and may never work). At the same time, the rankings themselves are subjective and difficult to put actual value on as well. On top of that, they are quite fluid and dynamic as are draft picks. Of course, all lists and rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt and that would need to be done as well.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
Let me also add that this is also mostly for those top picks that you mentioned are the most valuable. They are valuable simply because, as you stated, they carry pretty low bust rates and can generate pretty big talent.
So what exactly is the 1.1 worth? Would you trade LT for it? Addai? Larry Johnson? See what I mean? There's got to be a list of RB's you wouldn't give for the 1.1, and then there's the point in the rankings where you would give that RB or most ranked below him for the 1.1. Well, where is that point? That's something that I think we can discuss. Now, what about the 1.2? What would YOU be willing to give up for the 1.2?
I would love to see where F&L would rank these and then would love to hear the feedback from those that post here. Why would you not give up Jacobs for the 1.3? If someone was actively shopping the 1.3, what would it take to get it? What's too much to give? That's all I'm getting at.
So what exactly is the 1.1 worth? Would you trade LT for it? Addai? Larry Johnson? See what I mean? There's got to be a list of RB's you wouldn't give for the 1.1, and then there's the point in the rankings where you would give that RB or most ranked below him for the 1.1. Well, where is that point? That's something that I think we can discuss. Now, what about the 1.2? What would YOU be willing to give up for the 1.2?
I would love to see where F&L would rank these and then would love to hear the feedback from those that post here. Why would you not give up Jacobs for the 1.3? If someone was actively shopping the 1.3, what would it take to get it? What's too much to give? That's all I'm getting at.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 10 2008, 01:32 AM)
I understand what you're saying EBF, and I think that may be why it's never been tried (and may never work). At the same time, the rankings themselves are subjective and difficult to put actual value on as well. On top of that, they are quite fluid and dynamic as are draft picks. Of course, all lists and rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt and that would need to be done as well.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
Well, beauty is in the eye of beholder with most players. How high of a pick you can get really depends on your ability to find someone in your league who likes Welker and needs an immediate impact WR. I know I have young teams in most of my dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't even want to give up a top 15 rookie pick for Welker.
But if someone had a team on the brink of contending then maybe you could get 1.06 or 1.07 for Welker in a PPR. I doubt you could get much higher since everyone with a top 5-6 selection thinks he's going to draft a gem.
That said, I do think you can establish some rough guidlines.
I would say the top 12-13 WRs would all command a top 3 rookie pick in a PPR. Some owners might not want to make that deal, but a guy like Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson is worth more than the pick in that format.
There would be more variance in the 15-30 WR since the value of those guys seems a little less certain than the value of the elite WRs. I think you'd have to give up a top 5-6 pick to get someone like Sidney Rice or Lee Evans, but an unspectacular veteran like Hines Ward or Laveranues Coles would probably only cost a late first round rookie pick.
Most of the WRs in the 30-50 range could fetch a 2nd-3rd round rookie pick in a PPR. You could get a late 1st if you found a team who really likes one of these guys. But realistically, most of these WRs are unproven rookies an unimpressive veterans. So it can be tough to get teams to give up their early rookie picks for this type of player.
Arnaz Battle is an interesting buy low IMO. Will likely beneft from Martz, and I don't think DJax can stay healthy and be as productive anymore.
QUOTE (EBF @ Jan 10 2008, 12:48 AM)
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 10 2008, 01:32 AM)
I understand what you're saying EBF, and I think that may be why it's never been tried (and may never work). At the same time, the rankings themselves are subjective and difficult to put actual value on as well. On top of that, they are quite fluid and dynamic as are draft picks. Of course, all lists and rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt and that would need to be done as well.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
The thing I'm questioning, and it was the Dynasty Sell-High thread that got me thinking, is let's say I own a guy like Housh or Welker. We'll use Welker since he's ranked a little lower and more equal to a draft pick value. If I wanted to move Welker for a draft pick, what would it have to be? Where would I even start? For those who have been doing dynasty for a long time, you kind of get a feel for it, but those that are new, it's not as intuitive. Is a guy like Welker worth the 1.3? 1.5? 1.10? Two late 1sts?
I mean, sure we can go and post each individual question in the AC forum and get a few opinions, but we don't see much of that here in terms of discussion. I think if the draft picks were ranked along with the WR's, we could get some discussion as to why one is too high or too low and why. Would help us talk about potential players you could get with that pick and how they compare to the guys that pick is actually ranked around. Of course, this would vary from league to league with what you talked about above, but again, it generates discussion and at least gives a baseline to go from. Those rankings wouldn't be any more or less subjective than the actual player rankings themselves.
Well, beauty is in the eye of beholder with most players. How high of a pick you can get really depends on your ability to find someone in your league who likes Welker and needs an immediate impact WR. I know I have young teams in most of my dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't even want to give up a top 15 rookie pick for Welker.
But if someone had a team on the brink of contending then maybe you could get 1.06 or 1.07 for Welker in a PPR. I doubt you could get much higher since everyone with a top 5-6 selection thinks he's going to draft a gem.
That said, I do think you can establish some rough guidlines.
I would say the top 12-13 WRs would all command a top 3 rookie pick in a PPR. Some owners might not want to make that deal, but a guy like Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson is worth more than the pick in that format.
There would be more variance in the 15-30 WR since the value of those guys seems a little less certain than the value of the elite WRs. I think you'd have to give up a top 5-6 pick to get someone like Sidney Rice or Lee Evans, but an unspectacular veteran like Hines Ward or Laveranues Coles would probably only cost a late first round rookie pick.
Most of the WRs in the 30-50 range could fetch a 2nd-3rd round rookie pick in a PPR. You could get a late 1st if you found a team who really likes one of these guys. But realistically, most of these WRs are unproven rookies an unimpressive veterans. So it can be tough to get teams to give up their early rookie picks for this type of player.
Yes, and beauty is in the eye of the beholder for rankings too. That's why we see some players higher on one rank list and much lower on others. That's the nature of this that there is no consensus. So, what I'm proposing is to have the owner of this ranking list that many of us like (F&L) show us how much "beauty" he sees in the picks and where he ranks them. From there, we can find out if most agree or disagree, just like most of the posts on here are (x is ranked too high, y is ranked too low).
Your general guidelines for picks are how I feel too, but those are just that--general guidelines. I've never seen them nailed down specifically which is what I'm proposing. Again, it may not work, but I think it's possible. We could simply say that Welker is in the 15-25 range of WRs, but that isn't necessarily helpful. So instead, many people have actual lists and give him a specific ranking (ranked #17 on a certain list, for example). Then, we post on here why we'd bump him a little up or a little down or above this guy or below that guy. Why can't we do the same for these future picks that have both perceived and actual value? I think the fact that they aren't linked to a specific player is why we've never seen them incorporated among player rankings, but maybe we can try.
QUOTE (EBF @ Jan 10 2008, 01:21 AM)
That being the case, I think it's really hard to put an objective value on a rookie pick. You could do a study and figure out a rough average value for each pick (that was already done by a poster on this site named beto).
Link to beto's topic.
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