Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
I honestly didn't try to pick games where TJ was better for the comparison, I just tried to pick the most recent games where they both have played. i.e. I started after Housh returned from injury in 2005. So I went back to the beginning of 2005 to give a full two years plus this season as comparison. Here's the raw data.
First number at the bottom of the season is total points for that year, second is the head to head victories. Take it for what it's worth.
6pts for all TDs, 1 pt for every 10 yards.
Housh 2007 CJ
11 15
18 32
20 13
16 5
26 8
91/3 73/2
2006
DNP 6
DNP 13
21 1
9 6
16 9
12 7
7 13
12 3
8 38
1 37
13 12
16 9
17 10
4 3
15 3
4 5
156/10 175/6
2005
7 10
19 19
1 19
11 6
DNP 11
DNP 19
9 9
13 7
6 9
5 24
21 14
15 5
11 2
12 15
7 17
2 6
139/6 192/9
I honestly didn't try to pick games where TJ was better for the comparison, I just tried to pick the most recent games where they both have played. i.e. I started after Housh returned from injury in 2005. So I went back to the beginning of 2005 to give a full two years plus this season as comparison. Here's the raw data.
First number at the bottom of the season is total points for that year, second is the head to head victories. Take it for what it's worth.
6pts for all TDs, 1 pt for every 10 yards.
Housh 2007 CJ
11 15
18 32
20 13
16 5
26 8
91/3 73/2
2006
DNP 6
DNP 13
21 1
9 6
16 9
12 7
7 13
12 3
8 38
1 37
13 12
16 9
17 10
4 3
15 3
4 5
156/10 175/6
2005
7 10
19 19
1 19
11 6
DNP 11
DNP 19
9 9
13 7
6 9
5 24
21 14
15 5
11 2
12 15
7 17
2 6
139/6 192/9
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 14 2007, 12:50 AM) 
QUOTE (new-guru @ Oct 11 2007, 12:06 AM)
I have been looking at Dallas and their running backs. Who is their running backfor the future?
Who will they try to keep?
Isn't JJ's contract up this year?
Who will they try to keep?
Isn't JJ's contract up this year?
Rotoworld says Julius Jones signed a 6-year contract in 2004, but I've read in multiple places that he is an unrestricted free agent after this season...so I'm going to stay with that assumption. Wikipedia says: "Julius will be entering the final year in his four-year contract in 2007 and his future with the team remains to be seen."
Assuming that Jones is a free agent, I doubt he will be back. It's clear that Dallas does not consider him the future, and his production can easily be replaced. Barber has simply outproduced him the last couple of seasons.
Rotoworld also has Barber as a restricted free agent after the season. If that's correct, he could sign an offer sheet with another team. If we assume that Barber is brought back and Jones is not, does it follow that Barber becomes the every down workhorse? I don't think it necessarily does. I think the Cowboys brass believes Barber is best utilized in the role he's been filling. Could he take on more responsibility and garner more touches in a timeshare with a lesser back? Sure. If they bring in a Chris Brown/DeShaun Foster type of vet or pick up a non-1st rounder in the draft, then I think Barber's production could see a significant jump. Of course, if they get their hands on a guy like McFadden then all bets are off.
My best guess is that Jones will be gone and Barber will pick up some portion of Jones' production after he leaves.
Any Dallas
s with a good read on the Cowboys RB situation beyond this season?Thanks for the help
I always enjoy reading what you write. Your rankings are awesome!
QUOTE (new-guru @ Oct 16 2007, 11:43 AM)
Thanks for the help
I always enjoy reading what you write. Your rankings are awesome!
I always enjoy reading what you write. Your rankings are awesome!
Much appreciated, new-guru. I may not have the answers, but as long as we're all speculating, I'll throw my opinion out there anyway...
Through Week 6 (from the better late than never department)
2007 WORST PERSON IN FANTASY FOOTBALL AWARD
Pre-Season: Jack Del Rio
Week 1: Cam Cameron
Week 2: Cam Cameron / Norv Turner
Week 3: Rex Grossman / Lovie Smith
Week 4: Brad Childress
Week 5: Travis Henry
Week 6: Shaun Alexander / Adrian Peterson doubters
WEEK 6 POWER RANKINGS
AFC
1. New England Patriots, 6-0 / +138
2. Indianapolis Colts, 5-0 / +76
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4-1 / +85
4. San Diego Chargers, 3-3 / +18
5. Jacksonville Jaguars, 4-1 / +42
6. Baltimore Ravens, 4-2 / +10
7. Tennessee Titans, 3-2 / +22
8. Houston Texans, 3-3 / -3
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 5-1 / +59
2. Green Bay Packers, 5-1 / +35
3. Washington Redskins, 3-2 / +32
4. New York Giants 4-2 / +20
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-2 / +21
6. Carolina Panthers 4-2 / +13
7. Seattle Seahawks, 3-3 / +2
8. Arizona Cardinals 3-3 / -8
Tie. Chicago Bears, 2-4 / -31
2007 WORST PERSON IN FANTASY FOOTBALL AWARD
Pre-Season: Jack Del Rio
Week 1: Cam Cameron
Week 2: Cam Cameron / Norv Turner
Week 3: Rex Grossman / Lovie Smith
Week 4: Brad Childress
Week 5: Travis Henry
Week 6: Shaun Alexander / Adrian Peterson doubters
WEEK 6 POWER RANKINGS
AFC
1. New England Patriots, 6-0 / +138
2. Indianapolis Colts, 5-0 / +76
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4-1 / +85
4. San Diego Chargers, 3-3 / +18
5. Jacksonville Jaguars, 4-1 / +42
6. Baltimore Ravens, 4-2 / +10
7. Tennessee Titans, 3-2 / +22
8. Houston Texans, 3-3 / -3
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 5-1 / +59
2. Green Bay Packers, 5-1 / +35
3. Washington Redskins, 3-2 / +32
4. New York Giants 4-2 / +20
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-2 / +21
6. Carolina Panthers 4-2 / +13
7. Seattle Seahawks, 3-3 / +2
8. Arizona Cardinals 3-3 / -8
Tie. Chicago Bears, 2-4 / -31
You guys covered the history on Houshmazilli vs Ocho Stinko pretty well but going forward what are their contract statuses? CJ on a new team would still be a WR1 I am not sure the same can be said for Housh.
In our league, and I am assuming in most, Derek Anderson is ranked #3 for this year so far. I am perplexed by his tier 5 qb ranking here, behind the likes of Culpepper, Garrard, Delhomme, Leftwich, Edwards, Losman, Warner, and Jackson. Regardless of who is waiting in the wings, i would think the #3 qb this year would have more value in a dynasty league
QUOTE (Ariakis @ Oct 16 2007, 02:14 PM)
You guys covered the history on Houshmazilli vs Ocho Stinko pretty well but going forward what are their contract statuses? CJ on a new team would still be a WR1 I am not sure the same can be said for Housh.
According to rotoworld, Houshmandzadeh signed a 4-year contract in 2005. He has a $2.225M contract this year, $2.525M next year, and due to be a free agent in 2009.
Johnson signed a 6-year deal in 2006. $2.7M in 2007, $3M in 2008, $4.5M in 2009, $5M club option in 2010, $6M in 2011, and free agent in 2012.
I assume both will be starting WRs for the Bengals through at least next season.
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 05:00 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
It certainly is difficult to split the hairs in that upper echelon. Here's how I see it.
1. 98 Steve Smith...I don't think the guy can be covered. The only question is the QB with him.
2. 98 Randy Moss...Once again one of the top 5 players in the league.
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald...Youth and talent and a top 3 finish in 05 put him here.
4. 94 Chad Johnson...His consistency from week to week is questionable, but on a yearly basis few are more consistent.
5. 93 Andre Johnson...Good years with Carr are now going to be great years with Schaub. Houston is also turning the corner as an organization.
6. 93 Roy Williams...Definitely a notch below Fitz, but the system is top notch, even if the organization isn't.
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh...Top 5 ppg a year ago, excellent passing offense, and a great start again this year. Mr Consistent on a weekly basis.
8. 89 Reggie Wayne...Some may see more upside here with Marvin aging, but I just don't think he gets many more targets once Harrison retires. Too many weapons already in that offense.
9. 89 Braylon Edwards...Finally a productive QB, and a healthy start to a season.
10. 87 Plaxico Burress...Eli is starting to put it together, and it looks like Plaxico finally cares.
11. 86 Terrell Owens...Great offense, great talent. Age/drops and likelyhood for implosion have him this low for me.
12. 85 Javon Walker...Nice year last year, and was top 5 with Favre. Still relatively young, and there's upside with Cutler.
13. 84 Marvin Harrison...I think he's a great buy low in redraft. At 35 there can't be too many dominant years left.
14. 83 Calvin Johnson...He definitely looks the part, but I have got to see it for a while before I'll put him ahead of guys who have actually dominated in the league for years. I don't know if I would trade him for anyone not named Fitz however. I would definitely wait and see how good he truly is.
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
16. 81 Torry Holt...Quite a slip from his former elite status, but a declining team and age have him here.
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 05:00 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
It certainly is difficult to split the hairs in that upper echelon. Here's how I see it.
1. 98 Steve Smith...I don't think the guy can be covered. The only question is the QB with him.
2. 98 Randy Moss...Once again one of the top 5 players in the league.
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald...Youth and talent and a top 3 finish in 05 put him here.
4. 94 Chad Johnson...His consistency from week to week is questionable, but on a yearly basis few are more consistent.
5. 93 Andre Johnson...Good years with Carr are now going to be great years with Schaub. Houston is also turning the corner as an organization.
6. 93 Roy Williams...Definitely a notch below Fitz, but the system is top notch, even if the organization isn't.
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh...Top 5 ppg a year ago, excellent passing offense, and a great start again this year. Mr Consistent on a weekly basis.
8. 89 Reggie Wayne...Some may see more upside here with Marvin aging, but I just don't think he gets many more targets once Harrison retires. Too many weapons already in that offense.
9. 89 Braylon Edwards...Finally a productive QB, and a healthy start to a season.
10. 87 Plaxico Burress...Eli is starting to put it together, and it looks like Plaxico finally cares.
11. 86 Terrell Owens...Great offense, great talent. Age/drops and likelyhood for implosion have him this low for me.
12. 85 Javon Walker...Nice year last year, and was top 5 with Favre. Still relatively young, and there's upside with Cutler.
13. 84 Marvin Harrison...I think he's a great buy low in redraft. At 35 there can't be too many dominant years left.
14. 83 Calvin Johnson...He definitely looks the part, but I have got to see it for a while before I'll put him ahead of guys who have actually dominated in the league for years. I don't know if I would trade him for anyone not named Fitz however. I would definitely wait and see how good he truly is.
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
16. 81 Torry Holt...Quite a slip from his former elite status, but a declining team and age have him here.
I like your rankings a lot too, and I don't think we differ much at all. I think Moss & Steve Smith are the two dominant talent + performers right now, but Smith has MAJOR quarterback concerns. I agree that he can't be covered, but if you've convinced yourself that 43-year-old Vinny, fresh off his couch, is your best QB option the rest of the season, then you're almost as delusional as you are desperate.
I see Wayne & Housh as virtually the same player for dynasty purposes with Wayne getting a small edge in Peyton Manning and the Colts offense.
Plax has been awesome, no doubt. He's shown a ton of big play ability the past couple of seasons. But he still rates too high on the knucklehead scale for my liking in dynasty leagues.
Your comments on Calvin Johnson don't jive with your ranking. You wouldn't trade him for the guys directly above him, yet you've ranked him below them. I agree with your CJ comments more than your CJ ranking.
I worry about Holt's knee and supporting cast, but I'm not going to let a bad 6 weeks drop him quite that far...yet.
QUOTE (buckeyebill @ Oct 16 2007, 02:56 PM)
In our league, and I am assuming in most, Derek Anderson is ranked #3 for this year so far. I am perplexed by his tier 5 qb ranking here, behind the likes of Culpepper, Garrard, Delhomme, Leftwich, Edwards, Losman, Warner, and Jackson. Regardless of who is waiting in the wings, i would think the #3 qb this year would have more value in a dynasty league
Good question. I've been giving some thought to his situation. I didn’t get a chance to do any revisions today before you posted this, and Derek Anderson was one of the guys who was going to get another bump when I sat down to look at things tonight. He’s an interesting case though, isn't he?
Was it really just two weeks ago when Joey Harrington had a QB rating over 100 and some of the deluded thought he had turned the corner as a legit NFL QB under Petrino's system? I think with Anderson you have to ask yourself the same two questions the deluded should have asked with Harrington:
1. Has he played over his head through 6 games this season? Once you answer "yes" to that question, then...
2. How far over his head has he played this season?
With Harrington, it was that simple because there was no way he was ever going to be a starting fantasy QB. With Anderson, it's more complex. You've got quite a few unique factors involved:
A] The Brady Quinn Factor - Until this week (and possibly still), it's been safe to assume that Brady Quinn is not only the future of the franchise at QB, but also that he will get some playing time in the 2nd half of the season. Anderson has certainly delayed Quinn's arrival, but for how long? If Anderson continues to play almost as well as he has the first 6 games, then will he get a chance to stick Quinn on the bench like Brees did Rivers? My guess is the Browns would like Quinn to take over late this season, but Anderson could make the decision very difficult for them even going into next season. I doubt it, but it's certainly possible that he could render Quinn to the backseat for quite some time.
B] The Prove It To Me Factor - Also known as the "How can he possibly keep it up" factor and usually resulting in said player's points being wasted on somebody's bench because he wasn't seen as a starter until it was too late to use the points. In one of my dynasty leagues, he hasn't been used by his owner once this season. In the other league, he was on the bench in favor of Chad Pennington until this past week. My rankings on Anderson the past few weeks have jived with many of his dynasty's owners feelings. In other words, I don't believe you can keep it up...so you'll have to prove it to me. To a large degree, he has continued to prove himself as a weekly weapon.
C] The Regression To The Mean Factor - Anderson has never shown this kind of ability before, so it's normal to expect a regression to the mean. When you throw in a huge outlier of a game like the one against the Bengals, a future regression is even more probable. Furthermore, his completion percentage should be a major concern. Of starting QBs this season, only Alex Smith, Matt Leinart, and Tarvaris Jackson have lower completion percentages. That scares me. The yards per attempt and touchdowns are great, but the dreadful completion percentage and high interception total raise some serious red flags about both his short-term and long-term future.
D] The Comparison Factor - In dynasty leagues, you might be tempted to put Anderson in the same category as QBs like Brett Favre and Jon Kitna. In all three cases, a disproportionate percentage of their value is tied up in the 2007 season rather than in the future. I see two significant differences here though. First, I am much more confident in Favre's and Kitna's ability to put up startable numbers throughout the whole season. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Anderson hit a sudden slump like Alex Smith or Tony Romo did late last season. The other difference is that Favre and Kitna both control their own destinies beyond this season. If Favre wants to continue playing with a talented, young nucleus on offense and defense, he's going to remain the starter in GB and possibly on your fantasy team again next season. If Kitna is still alive at the end of this season, it's going to take a pretty sizable upset for another Lions QB to unseat him going into 2008. When your teammates are not only comparing you favorably to Peyton Manning & Tom Brady, but also in general agreement that God has chosen you to lead them, then you have some special job security going on. The shoe is on the other foot with Anderson; I think it would still be an upset to see him under center for the Browns in week one of the 2008 season.
Enjoy the ride while it lasts...
I have really enjoyed your rankings. Thanks again for sharing.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
QUOTE (cmv5 @ Oct 16 2007, 10:29 PM)
I have really enjoyed your rankings. Thanks again for sharing.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
Not F&L, but I'll take a quick stab at this one:
These are dynasty rankings. Fitzgerald's situation might not be ideal in the short-term, but he's already one of the best receivers in the league and he's only 24 years old. We don't know how his situation might change for better or worse over the course of his career, but we know that as long as he's healthy he's an elite talent capable of putting up big time statistics. Those are the kind of guys you build around in a dynasty league.
Regarding the comparison to Edwards, I would suggest that Fitzgerald is higher because he's been more consistent and productive throughout his career. If Edwards can sustain this type of performance then I'm sure he'll eventually climb up the dynasty rankings.
QUOTE (cmv5 @ Oct 16 2007, 11:29 PM)
I have really enjoyed your rankings. Thanks again for sharing.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
I always consider situation, and I'm sure it seeps into the rankings in some way or another for every player I'm ranking.
I disagree that Fitzgerald is seen as a complementary weapon, and I think his low touchdown total will correct itself in the second half. I don't really see how a talent like Fitzgerald could be seen as merely complementary by any coaching staff, and he's been the best redzone WR in the league the previous couple of seasons. Braylon Edwards is certainly a main weapon and a redzone threat, but how great is his situation? What happens to his value if or when Brady Quinn takes over? Anderson has been tremendous for his value, but the Browns are going to want to see what they have in Quinn at some point later this season or early next season. Edwards' production and consistency could be in for a fairly big hit, and you may not see it coming until it happens.
I guess if I felt as strongly about Fitzgerald having a limited role in the Cardinals offense as you do, then I'd knock him down a few pegs. But I just don't see it that way.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 16 2007, 11:37 PM)
QUOTE (cmv5 @ Oct 16 2007, 10:29 PM)
I have really enjoyed your rankings. Thanks again for sharing.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
One question, when do you let situation affect the rankings? Looking at Larry Fitzgerald (I consider him to be one of the best, talent-wise) and his situation and comparing it to someone like Braylon Edwards, Braylon appears to be one of the main weapons and an integral red zone option. It seems that the new coaching regime in Arizona considers Fitzgerald as one of the complementary weapons and this is playing out in his touchdown totals this year.
This is not to suggest that Braylon should get a bump up (he is more just to compare situation) but should Fitzgerald get a bump down? He may not get the opportunities in this offense because of conservative playcalling, an emphasis on the run and other options besides him.
Not F&L, but I'll take a quick stab at this one:
These are dynasty rankings. Fitzgerald's situation might not be ideal in the short-term, but he's already one of the best receivers in the league and he's only 24 years old. We don't know how his situation might change for better or worse over the course of his career, but we know that as long as he's healthy he's an elite talent capable of putting up big time statistics. Those are the kind of guys you build around in a dynasty league.
Regarding the comparison to Edwards, I would suggest that Fitzgerald is higher because he's been more consistent and productive throughout his career. If Edwards can sustain this type of performance then I'm sure he'll eventually climb up the dynasty rankings.
Nicely said, EBF. We all can get tempted to allow a hot streak of a few weeks to trump our previous assessments. It's tricky because sometimes you're right in doing so and just as often you're wrong. You don't want to fall behind the curve or be late to the party on a particular player, but you also don't want to jump the gun and lift a player on a streak over a better player who could be about to streak.
It's the nature of the NFL that we all tend to overreact to the highs and lows of each week. If you think we're bad about that in the fantasy football world, just tune into sports talk radio or ESPN's coverage. They take fickleness to new heights, constantly doing a 180 on the truth they laid on us last week. But, hey, it's the week-to-week overreaction that keeps the coffers full in Vegas.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 09:48 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 05:00 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
It certainly is difficult to split the hairs in that upper echelon. Here's how I see it.
1. 98 Steve Smith...I don't think the guy can be covered. The only question is the QB with him.
2. 98 Randy Moss...Once again one of the top 5 players in the league.
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald...Youth and talent and a top 3 finish in 05 put him here.
4. 94 Chad Johnson...His consistency from week to week is questionable, but on a yearly basis few are more consistent.
5. 93 Andre Johnson...Good years with Carr are now going to be great years with Schaub. Houston is also turning the corner as an organization.
6. 93 Roy Williams...Definitely a notch below Fitz, but the system is top notch, even if the organization isn't.
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh...Top 5 ppg a year ago, excellent passing offense, and a great start again this year. Mr Consistent on a weekly basis.
8. 89 Reggie Wayne...Some may see more upside here with Marvin aging, but I just don't think he gets many more targets once Harrison retires. Too many weapons already in that offense.
9. 89 Braylon Edwards...Finally a productive QB, and a healthy start to a season.
10. 87 Plaxico Burress...Eli is starting to put it together, and it looks like Plaxico finally cares.
11. 86 Terrell Owens...Great offense, great talent. Age/drops and likelyhood for implosion have him this low for me.
12. 85 Javon Walker...Nice year last year, and was top 5 with Favre. Still relatively young, and there's upside with Cutler.
13. 84 Marvin Harrison...I think he's a great buy low in redraft. At 35 there can't be too many dominant years left.
14. 83 Calvin Johnson...He definitely looks the part, but I have got to see it for a while before I'll put him ahead of guys who have actually dominated in the league for years. I don't know if I would trade him for anyone not named Fitz however. I would definitely wait and see how good he truly is.
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
16. 81 Torry Holt...Quite a slip from his former elite status, but a declining team and age have him here.
I like your rankings a lot too, and I don't think we differ much at all. I think Moss & Steve Smith are the two dominant talent + performers right now, but Smith has MAJOR quarterback concerns. I agree that he can't be covered, but if you've convinced yourself that 43-year-old Vinny, fresh off his couch, is your best QB option the rest of the season, then you're almost as delusional as you are desperate.
I see Wayne & Housh as virtually the same player for dynasty purposes with Wayne getting a small edge in Peyton Manning and the Colts offense.
Plax has been awesome, no doubt. He's shown a ton of big play ability the past couple of seasons. But he still rates too high on the knucklehead scale for my liking in dynasty leagues.
Your comments on Calvin Johnson don't jive with your ranking. You wouldn't trade him for the guys directly above him, yet you've ranked him below them. I agree with your CJ comments more than your CJ ranking.
I worry about Holt's knee and supporting cast, but I'm not going to let a bad 6 weeks drop him quite that far...yet.
Hey F&L,
My trouble ranking Calvin Johnson isn't just a Calvin issue. Its all rookies. I have a very difficult time ranking them responsibly. Does Calvin have the potential to reach the heights you have him rated at? Sure, and maybe even higher. Does he have the track record to prove it as everyone else there does? No. Yet if I had Calvin, I'd be scared to death of trading him for anyone but Fitz, because it could seriously come back to haunt me.
Here's another one for you. Take Jacoby Jones. Injured, and hasn't shown anything in the regular season, after a great preseason. You have him rated at the bottom of tier 6 with 8 pts, which is probably fair. However, if you had him would you be willing to give up his potential for Kevin Curtis, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Brown or Drew Bennett? All of those guys are rated well ahead of him, and deservedly so, as most of them start, and have some sort of track record.
Its just an issue that I really struggle with in ranking dynasty players.
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 17 2007, 02:10 AM)
Hey F&L,
My trouble ranking Calvin Johnson isn't just a Calvin issue. Its all rookies. I have a very difficult time ranking them responsibly. Does Calvin have the potential to reach the heights you have him rated at? Sure, and maybe even higher. Does he have the track record to prove it as everyone else there does? No. Yet if I had Calvin, I'd be scared to death of trading him for anyone but Fitz, because it could seriously come back to haunt me.
Here's another one for you. Take Jacoby Jones. Injured, and hasn't shown anything in the regular season, after a great preseason. You have him rated at the bottom of tier 6 with 8 pts, which is probably fair. However, if you had him would you be willing to give up his potential for Kevin Curtis, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Brown or Drew Bennett? All of those guys are rated well ahead of him, and deservedly so, as most of them start, and have some sort of track record.
Its just an issue that I really struggle with in ranking dynasty players.
My trouble ranking Calvin Johnson isn't just a Calvin issue. Its all rookies. I have a very difficult time ranking them responsibly. Does Calvin have the potential to reach the heights you have him rated at? Sure, and maybe even higher. Does he have the track record to prove it as everyone else there does? No. Yet if I had Calvin, I'd be scared to death of trading him for anyone but Fitz, because it could seriously come back to haunt me.
Here's another one for you. Take Jacoby Jones. Injured, and hasn't shown anything in the regular season, after a great preseason. You have him rated at the bottom of tier 6 with 8 pts, which is probably fair. However, if you had him would you be willing to give up his potential for Kevin Curtis, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Brown or Drew Bennett? All of those guys are rated well ahead of him, and deservedly so, as most of them start, and have some sort of track record.
Its just an issue that I really struggle with in ranking dynasty players.
Oh, yeah. I'd trade Jacoby Jones for any one of those guys so fast it would make your head spin. Kevin Curtis? You'd have to add an absolute ton of value to Jacoby Jones to get me to even consider. Vincent Jackson too. You'd have to add pretty much to Jacoby Jones to get Reggie Brown from me as well. I'd consider Bennett for Jones, but I definitely wouldn't do it straight up.
And I like Jacoby Jones.
I share your mistrust and difficulty with rookies. But Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are once-every-ten-years type of talents. We're not talking normal first round talents here. We're talking about difference makers with the probability of becoming fantasy monsters. Jacoby Jones is just your garden variety rookie WR with some potential.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 07:48 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 05:00 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
It certainly is difficult to split the hairs in that upper echelon. Here's how I see it.
1. 98 Steve Smith...I don't think the guy can be covered. The only question is the QB with him.
2. 98 Randy Moss...Once again one of the top 5 players in the league.
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald...Youth and talent and a top 3 finish in 05 put him here.
4. 94 Chad Johnson...His consistency from week to week is questionable, but on a yearly basis few are more consistent.
5. 93 Andre Johnson...Good years with Carr are now going to be great years with Schaub. Houston is also turning the corner as an organization.
6. 93 Roy Williams...Definitely a notch below Fitz, but the system is top notch, even if the organization isn't.
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh...Top 5 ppg a year ago, excellent passing offense, and a great start again this year. Mr Consistent on a weekly basis.
8. 89 Reggie Wayne...Some may see more upside here with Marvin aging, but I just don't think he gets many more targets once Harrison retires. Too many weapons already in that offense.
9. 89 Braylon Edwards...Finally a productive QB, and a healthy start to a season.
10. 87 Plaxico Burress...Eli is starting to put it together, and it looks like Plaxico finally cares.
11. 86 Terrell Owens...Great offense, great talent. Age/drops and likelyhood for implosion have him this low for me.
12. 85 Javon Walker...Nice year last year, and was top 5 with Favre. Still relatively young, and there's upside with Cutler.
13. 84 Marvin Harrison...I think he's a great buy low in redraft. At 35 there can't be too many dominant years left.
14. 83 Calvin Johnson...He definitely looks the part, but I have got to see it for a while before I'll put him ahead of guys who have actually dominated in the league for years. I don't know if I would trade him for anyone not named Fitz however. I would definitely wait and see how good he truly is.
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
16. 81 Torry Holt...Quite a slip from his former elite status, but a declining team and age have him here.
I like your rankings a lot too, and I don't think we differ much at all. I think Moss & Steve Smith are the two dominant talent + performers right now, but Smith has MAJOR quarterback concerns. I agree that he can't be covered, but if you've convinced yourself that 43-year-old Vinny, fresh off his couch, is your best QB option the rest of the season, then you're almost as delusional as you are desperate.
I see Wayne & Housh as virtually the same player for dynasty purposes with Wayne getting a small edge in Peyton Manning and the Colts offense.
Plax has been awesome, no doubt. He's shown a ton of big play ability the past couple of seasons. But he still rates too high on the knucklehead scale for my liking in dynasty leagues.
Your comments on Calvin Johnson don't jive with your ranking. You wouldn't trade him for the guys directly above him, yet you've ranked him below them. I agree with your CJ comments more than your CJ ranking.
I worry about Holt's knee and supporting cast, but I'm not going to let a bad 6 weeks drop him quite that far...yet.
This season is disappointing, but if he doesn't have any more setbacks then I think he can have another 3-4 more top years. The Rams should be able to fix up their issues in the offseason and get their offense back in gear next year. I'd rather have Holt after the season than Harrison since he's 4 years younger (31 vs. 35). Age shouldn't be a factor for Holt since he's less than 4 months older than Moss and only about a year older than Burress, House and CJ.
QUOTE (cstu @ Oct 17 2007, 03:07 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 07:48 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 16 2007, 05:00 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 11:21 AM)
Thank you F&L for your well thought out response. I do agree that Chad is the better WR, and talent almost always wins out in dynasty. My thought wasn't that TJ should be rated ahead of Chad. It was just that I didn't think there should be such a disparity in their rankings. 1 vs 12. Again, though I understand these are your rankings.
Thanks, Kitrick. It's a worthwhile debate, and a productive #2 guy like Housh is tough to rank in comparison to some of the ultra talented #1 WRs on lesser offenses.
I understand what you're saying, but I know I wouldn't part with anyone in the first tier for him. Maybe T.O. or Reggie Wayne depending on how I was feeling that day, but generally I like the more talented guys better in dynasty leagues. I definitely wouldn't deal Fitz, Roy Williams or Andre Johnson for him.
Who would you drop below Housh?
It certainly is difficult to split the hairs in that upper echelon. Here's how I see it.
1. 98 Steve Smith...I don't think the guy can be covered. The only question is the QB with him.
2. 98 Randy Moss...Once again one of the top 5 players in the league.
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald...Youth and talent and a top 3 finish in 05 put him here.
4. 94 Chad Johnson...His consistency from week to week is questionable, but on a yearly basis few are more consistent.
5. 93 Andre Johnson...Good years with Carr are now going to be great years with Schaub. Houston is also turning the corner as an organization.
6. 93 Roy Williams...Definitely a notch below Fitz, but the system is top notch, even if the organization isn't.
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh...Top 5 ppg a year ago, excellent passing offense, and a great start again this year. Mr Consistent on a weekly basis.
8. 89 Reggie Wayne...Some may see more upside here with Marvin aging, but I just don't think he gets many more targets once Harrison retires. Too many weapons already in that offense.
9. 89 Braylon Edwards...Finally a productive QB, and a healthy start to a season.
10. 87 Plaxico Burress...Eli is starting to put it together, and it looks like Plaxico finally cares.
11. 86 Terrell Owens...Great offense, great talent. Age/drops and likelyhood for implosion have him this low for me.
12. 85 Javon Walker...Nice year last year, and was top 5 with Favre. Still relatively young, and there's upside with Cutler.
13. 84 Marvin Harrison...I think he's a great buy low in redraft. At 35 there can't be too many dominant years left.
14. 83 Calvin Johnson...He definitely looks the part, but I have got to see it for a while before I'll put him ahead of guys who have actually dominated in the league for years. I don't know if I would trade him for anyone not named Fitz however. I would definitely wait and see how good he truly is.
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
16. 81 Torry Holt...Quite a slip from his former elite status, but a declining team and age have him here.
I like your rankings a lot too, and I don't think we differ much at all. I think Moss & Steve Smith are the two dominant talent + performers right now, but Smith has MAJOR quarterback concerns. I agree that he can't be covered, but if you've convinced yourself that 43-year-old Vinny, fresh off his couch, is your best QB option the rest of the season, then you're almost as delusional as you are desperate.
I see Wayne & Housh as virtually the same player for dynasty purposes with Wayne getting a small edge in Peyton Manning and the Colts offense.
Plax has been awesome, no doubt. He's shown a ton of big play ability the past couple of seasons. But he still rates too high on the knucklehead scale for my liking in dynasty leagues.
Your comments on Calvin Johnson don't jive with your ranking. You wouldn't trade him for the guys directly above him, yet you've ranked him below them. I agree with your CJ comments more than your CJ ranking.
I worry about Holt's knee and supporting cast, but I'm not going to let a bad 6 weeks drop him quite that far...yet.
This season is disappointing, but if he doesn't have any more setbacks then I think he can have another 3-4 more top years. The Rams should be able to fix up their issues in the offseason and get their offense back in gear next year. I'd rather have Holt after the season than Harrison since he's 4 years younger (31 vs. 35). Age shouldn't be a factor for Holt since he's less than 4 months older than Moss and only about a year older than Burress, House and CJ.
Good stuff!
Bumping this thread, I REALLY wish we could get it stickied up on top!
I have a question, on the rankings. (I am new to Dynasty / just started this yr in a dynasty)
It's my understanding that players with talent will stay on the rankings for awhile even if the situation is bad for them in the short term like 6 or 7 games not turning out good due to o-line injuries etc. (Holt, Jackson as examples) The situation they are in plays less into the rankings than the talent.
What about a player like Norwood? What's the feeling on his talent and situation? If they made him the the primary carrier this yr or next, would that bump him much in the rankings? He seems to have quite a bit of talent to me, but I'd like your thoughts if you have time.
I have a question, on the rankings. (I am new to Dynasty / just started this yr in a dynasty)
It's my understanding that players with talent will stay on the rankings for awhile even if the situation is bad for them in the short term like 6 or 7 games not turning out good due to o-line injuries etc. (Holt, Jackson as examples) The situation they are in plays less into the rankings than the talent.
What about a player like Norwood? What's the feeling on his talent and situation? If they made him the the primary carrier this yr or next, would that bump him much in the rankings? He seems to have quite a bit of talent to me, but I'd like your thoughts if you have time.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Oct 18 2007, 12:34 PM)
Bumping this thread, I REALLY wish we could get it stickied up on top!
60k views
Question: How is Travis Henry still so high? He'll be 30 by the time he's reinstated after his likely suspension. Chances are, he'll be a 30 year old, free agent RB, riddled with an ominous injury history. Don't get me wrong, these rankings are great, but that's one beef I have.
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 07:31 PM)
1. 98 Steve Smith
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
I can't help but comment on this.
Almost all of the WRs above have struggled with injuries, but Boldin gets singled out? Part of what makes Boldin great is that he's one of the most physical receivers in the league. Not saying that Boldin can equal Chad Johnson in terms of games missed over his career. But I think that many great NFL players deal with injuries every single year - including many of the people you've ranked above Boldin.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Oct 18 2007, 12:34 PM)
Bumping this thread, I REALLY wish we could get it stickied up on top!
I have a question, on the rankings. (I am new to Dynasty / just started this yr in a dynasty)
It's my understanding that players with talent will stay on the rankings for awhile even if the situation is bad for them in the short term like 6 or 7 games not turning out good due to o-line injuries etc. (Holt, Jackson as examples) The situation they are in plays less into the rankings than the talent.
What about a player like Norwood? What's the feeling on his talent and situation? If they made him the the primary carrier this yr or next, would that bump him much in the rankings? He seems to have quite a bit of talent to me, but I'd like your thoughts if you have time.
I have a question, on the rankings. (I am new to Dynasty / just started this yr in a dynasty)
It's my understanding that players with talent will stay on the rankings for awhile even if the situation is bad for them in the short term like 6 or 7 games not turning out good due to o-line injuries etc. (Holt, Jackson as examples) The situation they are in plays less into the rankings than the talent.
What about a player like Norwood? What's the feeling on his talent and situation? If they made him the the primary carrier this yr or next, would that bump him much in the rankings? He seems to have quite a bit of talent to me, but I'd like your thoughts if you have time.
Thanks, benm.
Below is my take on Norwood from post #393, page 8 in May.
QUESTION:
QUOTE
QUOTE(DocT @ May 7 2007, 09:31 AM) *
F&L --
I'm making my next pick soon on RBs, and don't really want a very high risk pick. How high risk is Norwood? You said you don't see him as every down back, but what exactly do you see him as? How many carries/game? Is there a chance that Petrino messes with a great running system and it fails miserably?
F&L --
I'm making my next pick soon on RBs, and don't really want a very high risk pick. How high risk is Norwood? You said you don't see him as every down back, but what exactly do you see him as? How many carries/game? Is there a chance that Petrino messes with a great running system and it fails miserably?
ANSWER:
QUOTE
I see him as a guy who will be paired with another runner. I don't have a great feel for his receiving abilities yet, but I watched quite a few Falcons games last year...and it was clear he was much more effective as the change of pace guy. I don't think he's the kind of every down stud that an offense builds its running game around.
I think he'd ideally be paired with a pounder to get the tough yards and soften up the defense. We'll see.
I personally would not draft Norwood unless I got him late in the draft at a good discount. It's not that I don't believe he's talented or explosive. I just believe his ultimate role is going to be paired with another runner. Can he take that and make it valuable like Bush & Mo-Jo? That's the $20,000 question.
I think he'd ideally be paired with a pounder to get the tough yards and soften up the defense. We'll see.
I personally would not draft Norwood unless I got him late in the draft at a good discount. It's not that I don't believe he's talented or explosive. I just believe his ultimate role is going to be paired with another runner. Can he take that and make it valuable like Bush & Mo-Jo? That's the $20,000 question.
A few months later, and I don't think I'd change my assessment much. I stand by my prediction that he's much more effective as a change of pace back rather than a lead back. I don't think an offense can build their rushing attack around him...but I do think his receiving abilities are better than I first suspected. He's a real weapon in the passing game if they can get the ball to him. I also believe he'll get more of a chance to showcase his abilities as the season goes along, but here are my concerns about Jerious Norwood right now:
1. Maybe there is a veteran respect factor going on with Warrick Dunn, but it is disconcerting that Dunn has performed so poorly, yet Norwood still hasn't managed to wrest a greater share of the job from him. It's blatantly obvious that Dunn is no longer close to effective, and the Falcons have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, but Norwood's ability has not convinced the coaching staff to run him more often.
2. I still believe he'll always be the kind of back to be paired with another back. With Petrino's track record at Louisville, I think it's reasonable to expect a bigger, between the tackles back to be brought in to take Warrick Dunn's place next season and split carries with Norwood.
3. I've seen speculation at Football Outsiders and other places that Vick had a profound effect on opening up lanes for Falcons running backs when he was a threat himself. Post-Vick, the rushing attack has seen fewer holes and drastically reduced production. Can they turn that around?
I guess I'd sum up my feelings on Norwood the same as I did back in May: "I just believe his ultimate role is going to be paired with another runner. Can he take that and make it valuable like Bush & Mo-Jo? That's the $20,000 question." I don't think he's as talented as Bush or Jones-Drew, so he's not a guy I'd bank on to be anything more than a gamble on my bench.
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Oct 18 2007, 12:42 PM)
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Oct 18 2007, 12:34 PM)
Bumping this thread, I REALLY wish we could get it stickied up on top!
60k views
in for sticky...i always hate searching for this thread but read it as often as possible
is there any thread that has started discussing next years rookie draft options?
QUOTE (2and2is5 @ Oct 18 2007, 12:54 PM)
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Oct 18 2007, 12:42 PM)
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Oct 18 2007, 12:34 PM)
Bumping this thread, I REALLY wish we could get it stickied up on top!
60k views
in for sticky...i always hate searching for this thread but read it as often as possible
is there any thread that has started discussing next years rookie draft options?
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Oct 18 2007, 12:47 PM)
Question: How is Travis Henry still so high? He'll be 30 by the time he's reinstated after his likely suspension. Chances are, he'll be a 30 year old, free agent RB, riddled with an ominous injury history. Don't get me wrong, these rankings are great, but that's one beef I have.
Quick answer: nebulousness.
Longer answer: It's still quite early in the process to do anything more than guess at the consequences of his marijuana/suspension/appeal/lawsuit. We can feel fairly confident that he will be suspended. We can feel a lot less confident about when the suspension will occur. We really don't have any insider insight on whether the Broncos will sever ties with him going into next season. I'm not sure why you think it's a given that they will.
When actual information comes in, I'll adjust the rankings to suit that info. Until that time, we're all guessing. Meanwhile, he's still plugging away, helping his owners win match-ups. There's no doubt his value will drop when the suspension info comes out. But it's tough to gauge the degree of that fall until we have details.
The other factor I've considered in Henry's ranking is that there aren't any obvious candidates to jump above him in value. Shaun Alexander looks like a shell of his former self. Cedric Benson runs at 24 like an old Shaun Alexander. I find it hard to believe he's the answer in Chicago or anywhere else. Marion Barber's situation leaves him far too hit-or-miss to feel comfortable starting him or to feel confident in predicting his future role. Kevin Jones is injury-prone and underwhelming as an effective runner (though if he stays healthy & productive, he'll move up). Michael Turner can't help you until next season.
Chances are, Henry will drop below all of those guys when we find out exactly what's going on with his situation. Until then, his value is pretty much of a crapshoot.
Honestly, I've never been a Henry fan (even when he signed with the Broncos), so it won't take much to convince me that other guys are better options.
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 01:41 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 07:31 PM)
1. 98 Steve Smith
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
I can't help but comment on this.
Almost all of the WRs above have struggled with injuries, but Boldin gets singled out? Part of what makes Boldin great is that he's one of the most physical receivers in the league. Not saying that Boldin can equal Chad Johnson in terms of games missed over his career. But I think that many great NFL players deal with injuries every single year - including many of the people you've ranked above Boldin.
Well this is just a guess since those aren't my rankings, but I don't think you'd see that comment next to Boldin's name if he wasn't the most recently injured. He's missed the past two games, and we generally deal in a "what have you done for me lately" fantasy football world. Throw in his history, which isn't injury-free, and it raises red flags for some.
I find it interesting which of the top 15 WRs some of us love while others don't. Some think Boldin is a top 5 dynasty WR. Some think he's better than Fitzgerald. Some think Boldin is closer to 15th and are sure that Fitzgerald is better. And it's not just with those two. Some guys have really strong opinions that Reggie Wayne is better than Andre Johnson or Roy Williams, some don't. I just find it difficult to have strong feelings in separating this group of receivers. When they're that close in value, something as seemingly minor as a 2-3 week injury can really affect your methodology in ranking them.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 11:14 AM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 01:41 PM)
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Oct 16 2007, 07:31 PM)
1. 98 Steve Smith
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
2. 98 Randy Moss
3. 94 Larry Fitzgerald
4. 94 Chad Johnson
5. 93 Andre Johnson
6. 93 Roy Williams
7. 91 TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. 89 Reggie Wayne
9. 89 Braylon Edwards
10. 87 Plaxico Burress
11. 86 Terrell Owens
12. 85 Javon Walker
13. 84 Marvin Harrison
14. 83 Calvin Johnson
15. 81 Anquan Boldin...Would be much higher if not for injuries.
I can't help but comment on this.
Almost all of the WRs above have struggled with injuries, but Boldin gets singled out? Part of what makes Boldin great is that he's one of the most physical receivers in the league. Not saying that Boldin can equal Chad Johnson in terms of games missed over his career. But I think that many great NFL players deal with injuries every single year - including many of the people you've ranked above Boldin.
Well this is just a guess since those aren't my rankings, but I don't think you'd see that comment next to Boldin's name if he wasn't the most recently injured. He's missed the past two games, and we generally deal in a "what have you done for me lately" fantasy football world. Throw in his history, which isn't injury-free, and it raises red flags for some.
I find it interesting which of the top 15 WRs some of us love while others don't. Some think Boldin is a top 5 dynasty WR. Some think he's better than Fitzgerald. Some think Boldin is closer to 15th and are sure that Fitzgerald is better. And it's not just with those two. Some guys have really strong opinions that Reggie Wayne is better than Andre Johnson or Roy Williams, some don't. I just find it difficult to have strong feelings in separating this group of receivers. When they're that close in value, something as seemingly minor as a 2-3 week injury can really affect your methodology in ranking them.
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 01:03 PM)
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Oct 18 2007, 12:47 PM)
Question: How is Travis Henry still so high? He'll be 30 by the time he's reinstated after his likely suspension. Chances are, he'll be a 30 year old, free agent RB, riddled with an ominous injury history. Don't get me wrong, these rankings are great, but that's one beef I have.
Quick answer: nebulousness.
Longer answer: It's still quite early in the process to do anything more than guess at the consequences of his marijuana/suspension/appeal/lawsuit. We can feel fairly confident that he will be suspended. We can feel a lot less confident about when the suspension will occur. We really don't have any insider insight on whether the Broncos will sever ties with him going into next season. I'm not sure why you think it's a given that they will.
When actual information comes in, I'll adjust the rankings to suit that info. Until that time, we're all guessing. Meanwhile, he's still plugging away, helping his owners win match-ups. There's no doubt his value will drop when the suspension info comes out. But it's tough to gauge the degree of that fall until we have details.
The other factor I've considered in Henry's ranking is that there aren't any obvious candidates to jump above him in value. Shaun Alexander looks like a shell of his former self. Cedric Benson runs at 24 like an old Shaun Alexander. I find it hard to believe he's the answer in Chicago or anywhere else. Marion Barber's situation leaves him far too hit-or-miss to feel comfortable starting him or to feel confident in predicting his future role. Kevin Jones is injury-prone and underwhelming as an effective runner (though if he stays healthy & productive, he'll move up). Michael Turner can't help you until next season.
Chances are, Henry will drop below all of those guys when we find out exactly what's going on with his situation. Until then, his value is pretty much of a crapshoot.
Honestly, I've never been a Henry fan (even when he signed with the Broncos), so it won't take much to convince me that other guys are better options.
See, but every report out says that Henry has probably a *maximum* of three weeks left. I'm honestly thinking he has three games left in professional football given the above circumstances (probably will get cut, 30 year old runner out of a job, etc). If I were a Henry dynasty owner, I'd trade him for a TON of the guys you have below him right now, straight up.
Are you telling me you wouldn't?
Boldin should be ahead of TO and Harrison. He's as good as those guys at this point and he has a much greater potential shelf life.
I can also see moving him ahead of Walker, Edwards, Calvin, Burress, and Housh. Boldin has had a better career than Walker and is a safer option than Edwards or Calvin because we already know he's an elite player. He has a little more shelf life than Burress and is a better player than Housh (though Housh will probably outscore him for the next 1-2 years).
Anquan is in the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams class as a football player. He should have a great career as long he's healthy.
I can also see moving him ahead of Walker, Edwards, Calvin, Burress, and Housh. Boldin has had a better career than Walker and is a safer option than Edwards or Calvin because we already know he's an elite player. He has a little more shelf life than Burress and is a better player than Housh (though Housh will probably outscore him for the next 1-2 years).
Anquan is in the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams class as a football player. He should have a great career as long he's healthy.
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Oct 18 2007, 03:42 PM)
See, but every report out says that Henry has probably a *maximum* of three weeks left. I'm honestly thinking he has three games left in professional football given the above circumstances (probably will get cut, 30 year old runner out of a job, etc). If I were a Henry dynasty owner, I'd trade him for a TON of the guys you have below him right now, straight up.
Are you telling me you wouldn't?
Are you telling me you wouldn't?
I obviously haven't followed this whole saga as closely as Broncos fans have, but I have been reading along. It seems to me that all the reports since the initial one have vacillated on length. First they said immediate suspension, then they said maybe not even at all this year, then they said not until November. If you're telling me the latest guess is probably three weeks, I believe you that it's the latest guess. But if you've been guessing along, chances are you've been wrong at some point so far.
Is the word around Broncos land that Henry will be cut after the season? I've seen speculation to that effect but nothing convincing, especially after the commitment they gave him this past offseason. Is everybody else in Denver as sure as you are that he'll be cut and never have a starting job again?
Would I trade Henry for those guys? I don't know. Depends on the situation. I have Selvin Young in both of my leagues, so I tried to trade for Henry when this news first came out. I tried to package Vincent Jackson and Jamal Lewis and got turned down, but I was willing to give up both of those guys to give me the Broncos starting RB for the rest of the season.
I'm not very high on the guys I listed, so maybe I'm not the right guy to ask. I don't care much for Henry either, but I'd roll the dice with Selvin Young & Henry.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 03:44 PM)
Boldin should be ahead of TO and Harrison. He's as good as those guys at this point and he has a much greater potential shelf life.
I can also see moving him ahead of Walker, Edwards, Calvin, Burress, and Housh. Boldin has had a better career than Walker and is a safer option than Edwards or Calvin because we already know he's an elite player. He has a little more shelf life than Burress and is a better player than Housh (though Housh will probably outscore him for the next 1-2 years).
Anquan is in the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams class as a football player. He should have a great career as long he's healthy.
I can also see moving him ahead of Walker, Edwards, Calvin, Burress, and Housh. Boldin has had a better career than Walker and is a safer option than Edwards or Calvin because we already know he's an elite player. He has a little more shelf life than Burress and is a better player than Housh (though Housh will probably outscore him for the next 1-2 years).
Anquan is in the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams class as a football player. He should have a great career as long he's healthy.
Yup. We're in splittin' hairs and personal preference territory.
I'm just not convinced that Anquan Boldin is reliable enough at this point. We've talked about him before so there's no use re-hashing, but I'd just feel a hell of a lot more confident in the future of my receiving corps with Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, or Calvin Johnson there. And if I'm in the the playoff hunt this year, there's no doubt I'd rather have T.O., Housh, or Braylon Edwards on my dynasty roster. Just personal preference based on my situation...
I guess I'm not an Anquan Boldin believer to the extent that many others are.
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 03:39 PM)
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
People were up in arms over the same issue going into last season as well. How'd that one turn out for Harrison & Boldin owners?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 03:05 PM)
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Oct 18 2007, 03:42 PM)
See, but every report out says that Henry has probably a *maximum* of three weeks left. I'm honestly thinking he has three games left in professional football given the above circumstances (probably will get cut, 30 year old runner out of a job, etc). If I were a Henry dynasty owner, I'd trade him for a TON of the guys you have below him right now, straight up.
Are you telling me you wouldn't?
Are you telling me you wouldn't?
I obviously haven't followed this whole saga as closely as Broncos fans have, but I have been reading along. It seems to me that all the reports since the initial one have vacillated on length. First they said immediate suspension, then they said maybe not even at all this year, then they said not until November. If you're telling me the latest guess is probably three weeks, I believe you that it's the latest guess. But if you've been guessing along, chances are you've been wrong at some point so far.
Is the word around Broncos land that Henry will be cut after the season? I've seen speculation to that effect but nothing convincing, especially after the commitment they gave him this past offseason. Is everybody else in Denver as sure as you are that he'll be cut and never have a starting job again?
Would I trade Henry for those guys? I don't know. Depends on the situation. I have Selvin Young in both of my leagues, so I tried to trade for Henry when this news first came out. I tried to package Vincent Jackson and Jamal Lewis and got turned down, but I was willing to give up both of those guys to give me the Broncos starting RB for the rest of the season.
I'm not very high on the guys I listed, so maybe I'm not the right guy to ask. I don't care much for Henry either, but I'd roll the dice with Selvin Young & Henry.
I just fail to see the upside here. Let's say it's best-case scenario. Let's say he gets suspended in November. What's his value after that?
I just can't justify that high of a ranking for someone who's not going to be around for very long.
Let's say Denver's stupid enough to pay him and not go after his bonuses. He returns a year later, 30 years old, and not having played for a year. Does he jump in and become the starter again?
Way too many questions there. Way. For a back at the wrong age. I'd much, much rather have a back with question marks like Marion Barber, who has 3 times the talent and much, much more upside. I know other people are nitpicking with you in here, and I don't get that. You've done a great job with this, and it's stupid to argue about 3-4 slots in the rankings. This is different, I feel. I don't think Henry should be anywhere near where he is on the list.
QUOTE (Keys Myaths @ Oct 18 2007, 04:22 PM)
I just fail to see the upside here. Let's say it's best-case scenario. Let's say he gets suspended in November. What's his value after that?
I just can't justify that high of a ranking for someone who's not going to be around for very long.
Let's say Denver's stupid enough to pay him and not go after his bonuses. He returns a year later, 30 years old, and not having played for a year. Does he jump in and become the starter again?
Way too many questions there. Way. For a back at the wrong age. I'd much, much rather have a back with question marks like Marion Barber, who has 3 times the talent and much, much more upside. I know other people are nitpicking with you in here, and I don't get that. You've done a great job with this, and it's stupid to argue about 3-4 slots in the rankings. This is different, I feel. I don't think Henry should be anywhere near where he is on the list.
I just can't justify that high of a ranking for someone who's not going to be around for very long.
Let's say Denver's stupid enough to pay him and not go after his bonuses. He returns a year later, 30 years old, and not having played for a year. Does he jump in and become the starter again?
Way too many questions there. Way. For a back at the wrong age. I'd much, much rather have a back with question marks like Marion Barber, who has 3 times the talent and much, much more upside. I know other people are nitpicking with you in here, and I don't get that. You've done a great job with this, and it's stupid to argue about 3-4 slots in the rankings. This is different, I feel. I don't think Henry should be anywhere near where he is on the list.
Just to hit quickly on a few of your points:
- Like I said, I'm far from a Travis Henry defender, but the hyperbole alert sounded pretty loudly on Marion Barber having 3 times the talent. Come on. He's talented, but he hasn't even beaten out Julius Jones under two separate coaching regimes. Henry has some pretty good seasons under his belt in his own right.
- If Denver does pay and not go after his bonuses, I do believe he jumps back in as the starter half-way through next year or whenever that is. If they go after his bonuses and try to cut him, he's obviously not going to be the starter. I just haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe as strongly as you do that they will cut him.
- I know you don't think Henry should be anywhere near where he is on the list. There's a good chance I'll feel exactly the same way once I get some hard facts on his situation. I think where we differ on this issue is quite simple: you have a strong feel about what's going to happen with Henry. You're very sure of the scenario whereas I've had a tough time reading how all of this will play out. I still don't know when he'll be suspended, and I have zero feel for the Broncos' response to that suspension this offseason.
Can you give me anything solid on his suspension or the expectation that he will be cut? I've been checking all the usual places throughout, and I have been searching pretty hard for info that would lead me to dock his value heavily before we know the specifics, but nothing has convinced me one way or another. I'm not trying to be a smart*** here, but a link to something that would lead me to your line of thinking would go a long way in getting me to feel as strongly as you do about the situation.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 03:18 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 03:39 PM)
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
People were up in arms over the same issue going into last season as well. How'd that one turn out for Harrison & Boldin owners?
F&L,
I agree with the vast majority of your rankings, but you of all people should know better than to resort to this argument. Boldin is a 26 year old WR who has already put up two 100 catch seasons and three seasons of 1,200+ yards.
Harrison is almost a decade older. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, we're talking about a guy who could hit the wall at any given moment (he's not even on pace for 1,000 yards btw). People have been acting like Isaac Bruce is dead for years. Did you know that Marvin Harrison is actually older than Isaac Bruce? The guy was a great player, but the vultures are circling.
Even if you're not the biggest Boldin fan in the world, it's a HUGE mathematical mistake to rank him behind two similar players who offer a much shorter potential shelf life. Boldin can produce on the Harrison/TO level THIS year and he'll probably be a Pro Bowl caliber player long after they've retired.
I can see ranking Walker, Burress, and Calvin a little higher if you think those guys are better than Boldin. But there's no excuse for putting him behind Marvin and TO at this point. An elite young receiver > an elite old receiver.
Great stuff, F&L.
With 23 rec and 304 yds in his past 3 games
I think you've overlooked Kevin Walter.
His numbers will go down when AJ returns, but he
should see lots of single coverage, he's a big target
who knows how to get open.
He should be worthy of a tier 6 or 7 ranking, imo.
With 23 rec and 304 yds in his past 3 games
I think you've overlooked Kevin Walter.
His numbers will go down when AJ returns, but he
should see lots of single coverage, he's a big target
who knows how to get open.
He should be worthy of a tier 6 or 7 ranking, imo.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 05:39 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 03:18 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 03:39 PM)
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
People were up in arms over the same issue going into last season as well. How'd that one turn out for Harrison & Boldin owners?
F&L,
I agree with the vast majority of your rankings, but you of all people should know better than to resort to this argument. Boldin is a 26 year old WR who has already put up two 100 catch seasons and three seasons of 1,200+ yards.
Harrison is almost a decade older. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, we're talking about a guy who could hit the wall at any given moment (he's not even on pace for 1,000 yards btw). People have been acting like Isaac Bruce is dead for years. Did you know that Marvin Harrison is actually older than Isaac Bruce? The guy was a great player, but the vultures are circling.
Even if you're not the biggest Boldin fan in the world, it's a HUGE mathematical mistake to rank him behind two similar players who offer a much shorter potential shelf life. Boldin can produce on the Harrison/TO level THIS year and he'll probably be a Pro Bowl caliber player long after they've retired.
I can see ranking Walker, Burress, and Calvin a little higher if you think those guys are better than Boldin. But there's no excuse for putting him behind Marvin and TO at this point. An elite young receiver > an elite old receiver.
It's not "resorting to an argument." It's pointing out that the same argument used against Marvin Harrison last year failed miserably. People who pegged Marvin Harrison as past his prime and preferred Boldin instead suffered for that decision last year. And what was your argument for pumping up Thomas Jones' dynasty value this pre-season? Dynasty leaguers are constantly overvaluing youth while productive veterans get swept aside too easily.
It wasn't just last year that the "Boldin = younger than Harrison, so he's automatically a better dynasty WR" argument failed. People have been using this argument against Marvin Harrison for years now. There was a very well respected owner in one of my leagues who traded Marvin Harrison for the rights to draft Charles Rogers four years ago using the exact same reasoning. What if my window in looking at WRs is two years? If I think Marvin Harrison can significantly outproduce Anquan Boldin for the next two seasons while also expecting more consistency and less injury risk, why would I pass that up just because it's a dynasty league? What if I'm going for the title this year, and I think Marvin gives me the reliability and consistency I need to put me over the top?
While I have the two close in value, I actually do have Boldin a tad higher...and he'll move up a point or two now that he's healthy and presumably productive again. But I can envision situations where it would make sense to prefer Harrison.
I'm not advocating always taking a "past-his-prime veteran" over a rookie with the same prospects. But in this case I can see their values being pretty even when one finished with one of the best seasons of his first ballot Hall of Famer career less than a year ago while I don't quite trust the other to produce consistently or stay a reliable start every single week for the next couple of years.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 04:39 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 05:39 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 03:18 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 03:39 PM)
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
People were up in arms over the same issue going into last season as well. How'd that one turn out for Harrison & Boldin owners?
F&L,
I agree with the vast majority of your rankings, but you of all people should know better than to resort to this argument. Boldin is a 26 year old WR who has already put up two 100 catch seasons and three seasons of 1,200+ yards.
Harrison is almost a decade older. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, we're talking about a guy who could hit the wall at any given moment (he's not even on pace for 1,000 yards btw). People have been acting like Isaac Bruce is dead for years. Did you know that Marvin Harrison is actually older than Isaac Bruce? The guy was a great player, but the vultures are circling.
Even if you're not the biggest Boldin fan in the world, it's a HUGE mathematical mistake to rank him behind two similar players who offer a much shorter potential shelf life. Boldin can produce on the Harrison/TO level THIS year and he'll probably be a Pro Bowl caliber player long after they've retired.
I can see ranking Walker, Burress, and Calvin a little higher if you think those guys are better than Boldin. But there's no excuse for putting him behind Marvin and TO at this point. An elite young receiver > an elite old receiver.
It's not "resorting to an argument." It's pointing out that the same argument used against Marvin Harrison last year failed miserably. People who pegged Marvin Harrison as past his prime and preferred Boldin instead suffered for that decision last year. And what was your argument for pumping up Thomas Jones' dynasty value this pre-season? Dynasty leaguers are constantly overvaluing youth while productive veterans get swept aside too easily.
It wasn't just last year that the "Boldin = younger than Harrison, so he's automatically a better dynasty WR" argument failed. People have been using this argument against Marvin Harrison for years now. There was a very well respected owner in one of my leagues who traded Marvin Harrison for the rights to draft Charles Rogers four years ago using the exact same reasoning. What if my window in looking at WRs is two years? If I think Marvin Harrison can significantly outproduce Anquan Boldin for the next two seasons while also expecting more consistency and less injury risk, why would I pass that up just because it's a dynasty league? What if I'm going for the title this year, and I think Marvin gives me the reliability and consistency I need to put me over the top?
While I have the two close in value, I actually do have Boldin a tad higher...and he'll move up a point or two now that he's healthy and presumably productive again. But I can envision situations where it would make sense to prefer Harrison.
I'm not advocating always taking a "past-his-prime veteran" over a rookie with the same prospects. But in this case I can see their values being pretty even when one finished with one of the best seasons of his first ballot Hall of Famer career less than a year ago while I don't quite trust the other to produce consistently or stay a reliable start every single week for the next couple of years.
You're making good points, but let's not mention Charles Rogers and Anquan Boldin in the same argument.
F&L -- where are you placing Walker after the news of knee surgery?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 06:39 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 05:39 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 18 2007, 03:18 PM)
QUOTE (jdoggydogg @ Oct 18 2007, 03:39 PM)
That's a valid point. These are brilliant talents, and they are quite close in terms of skill. But how anyone ranks Marvin Harrison above Anquan Boldin in a Dynasty league is beyond me.
People were up in arms over the same issue going into last season as well. How'd that one turn out for Harrison & Boldin owners?
F&L,
I agree with the vast majority of your rankings, but you of all people should know better than to resort to this argument. Boldin is a 26 year old WR who has already put up two 100 catch seasons and three seasons of 1,200+ yards.
Harrison is almost a decade older. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, we're talking about a guy who could hit the wall at any given moment (he's not even on pace for 1,000 yards btw). People have been acting like Isaac Bruce is dead for years. Did you know that Marvin Harrison is actually older than Isaac Bruce? The guy was a great player, but the vultures are circling.
Even if you're not the biggest Boldin fan in the world, it's a HUGE mathematical mistake to rank him behind two similar players who offer a much shorter potential shelf life. Boldin can produce on the Harrison/TO level THIS year and he'll probably be a Pro Bowl caliber player long after they've retired.
I can see ranking Walker, Burress, and Calvin a little higher if you think those guys are better than Boldin. But there's no excuse for putting him behind Marvin and TO at this point. An elite young receiver > an elite old receiver.
It's not "resorting to an argument." It's pointing out that the same argument used against Marvin Harrison last year failed miserably. People who pegged Marvin Harrison as past his prime and preferred Boldin instead suffered for that decision last year. And what was your argument for pumping up Thomas Jones' dynasty value this pre-season? Dynasty leaguers are constantly overvaluing youth while productive veterans get swept aside too easily.
It wasn't just last year that the "Boldin = younger than Harrison, so he's automatically a better dynasty WR" argument failed. People have been using this argument against Marvin Harrison for years now. There was a very well respected owner in one of my leagues who traded Marvin Harrison for the rights to draft Charles Rogers four years ago using the exact same reasoning. What if my window in looking at WRs is two years? If I think Marvin Harrison can significantly outproduce Anquan Boldin for the next two seasons while also expecting more consistency and less injury risk, why would I pass that up just because it's a dynasty league? What if I'm going for the title this year, and I think Marvin gives me the reliability and consistency I need to put me over the top?
While I have the two close in value, I actually do have Boldin a tad higher...and he'll move up a point or two now that he's healthy and presumably productive again. But I can envision situations where it would make sense to prefer Harrison.
I'm not advocating always taking a "past-his-prime veteran" over a rookie with the same prospects. But in this case I can see their values being pretty even when one finished with one of the best seasons of his first ballot Hall of Famer career less than a year ago while I don't quite trust the other to produce consistently or stay a reliable start every single week for the next couple of years.
I advocated Thomas Jones as a good pickup if you were looking at a 2 year window, but I never would've ranked him ahead of similar talents in the prime of their career.
It seems like you're using the same logic FF owners used when they took Faulk, Holmes, and Alexander in the top 3-5 dynasty picks when it was clear that those guys were nearing the end of their playing days. It's easy to say "I'll take the elite production for the next 2 years." In practice it doesn't work so well because old guys often flame out pretty quickly, leaving you with dust when you could've played it safe and secured a top tier youngster who would still be contributing to your team.
A few posts back you referenced not relying too heavily on last year's numbers, yet most of your arguments regarding Boldin vs. Harrison/Owens seem to be relying too heavily on past performance. You mentioned that people were saying the same things about Harrison vs. Boldin last year. So what? Last year was last year. Moreover, just because Harrison had a better 2006 than Boldin doesn't mean that the people pimping Harrison were correct. We're talking dynasty here. One year isn't enough to prove anything.
Take a step back and think about it. Independent of context, would you really rather have a 35 year old player instead of a 26 year old player who has been similarly productive? It just doesn't make any sense. It's not like we're talking about Mark Clayton here. Anquan Boldin is a superstar who has routinely put up monster seasons throughout his career.
I just can't fathom taking Owens or Harrison over Boldin in a dynasty league. It's insanity almost on the level of taking Favre over Palmer.
It's not a big deal really, but I definitely think your rankings are off in this particular case.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 07:58 PM)
and Alexander in the top 3-5 dynasty picks when it was clear that those guys were nearing the end of their playing days.
I don't think this ever happened. Prior to 2006, SA was coming off an MVP season and had showed no signs of slowing down. But after his injuries last year, no one took him that high in 2007 start-ups.
More to your premise though - As an owner of SA, his decline caught me blindsided. Sure, it would have been foolish to expect a repeat of his tremendous '05 campaign and the shrewd owner should have traded him last summer, but who could really say he would fall off so quickly? He had no history of injury, finished '05 very strong, and had seen increases in his ypc in each of the previous 3 seasons. I expected to get another solid season and trade him prior to '07, but that idea faded quickly in early '06. At press time I have an old, washed up stud with absolutely no trade value - a situation that has severely handicapped my ability to rebuild.
It may be too late to move Harrison but if he comes back with a huge game in the next few weeks, TRADE HIM.
QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 18 2007, 07:50 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 07:58 PM)
and Alexander in the top 3-5 dynasty picks when it was clear that those guys were nearing the end of their playing days.
I don't think this ever happened. Prior to 2006, SA was coming off an MVP season and had showed no signs of slowing down. But after his injuries last year, no one took him that high in 2007 start-ups.
More to your premise though - As an owner of SA, his decline caught me blindsided. Sure, it would have been foolish to expect a repeat of his tremendous '05 campaign and the shrewd owner should have traded him last summer, but who could really say he would fall off so quickly? He had no history of injury, finished '05 very strong, and had seen increases in his ypc in each of the previous 3 seasons. I expected to get another solid season and trade him prior to '07, but that idea faded quickly in early '06. At press time I have an old, washed up stud with absolutely no trade value - a situation that has severely handicapped my ability to rebuild.
It may be too late to move Harrison but if he comes back with a huge game in the next few weeks, TRADE HIM.
QUOTE (EBF @ Jun 1 2006, 08:24 PM)
Sell High
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
I've made a lot of bad calls in the past, but I was dead on the money with my assessment of Alexander. People were taking a 29 year old RB in the top 3 of dynasty drafts. Most of these drafters applied the "sure, he's old, but I'll get three elite years out of him" logic.
That logic stinks. A RB over 29 is usually near the end of his productive career. A WR over 34 is usually near the end of his productive career. There are exceptions like Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice, but those guys are very few and far between.
You have to think ahead in dynasty. When you look at veterans like Harrison, you have to ask yourself where he'll be in two years. He'll be 37 years old. Even if he's one of the rare few who can remain productive into that age range, he'll almost certainly be on the decline and his dynasty trade value will be shot because old players have almost no trade value.
That doesn't mean you should rush out to trade Marvin Harrison for Ted Ginn, but there's no reason to take a great 35 year old over a great 26 year old. Both Harrison and Boldin have proven to be the real deal. In cases like these you should typically go with the younger player (especially when the age gap is 8+ years).
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 10:01 PM)
QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 18 2007, 07:50 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 07:58 PM)
and Alexander in the top 3-5 dynasty picks when it was clear that those guys were nearing the end of their playing days.
I don't think this ever happened. Prior to 2006, SA was coming off an MVP season and had showed no signs of slowing down. But after his injuries last year, no one took him that high in 2007 start-ups.
More to your premise though - As an owner of SA, his decline caught me blindsided. Sure, it would have been foolish to expect a repeat of his tremendous '05 campaign and the shrewd owner should have traded him last summer, but who could really say he would fall off so quickly? He had no history of injury, finished '05 very strong, and had seen increases in his ypc in each of the previous 3 seasons. I expected to get another solid season and trade him prior to '07, but that idea faded quickly in early '06. At press time I have an old, washed up stud with absolutely no trade value - a situation that has severely handicapped my ability to rebuild.
It may be too late to move Harrison but if he comes back with a huge game in the next few weeks, TRADE HIM.
QUOTE (EBF @ Jun 1 2006, 08:24 PM)
Sell High
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
I've made a lot of bad calls in the past, but I was dead on the money with my assessment of Alexander. People were taking a 29 year old RB in the top 3 of dynasty drafts. Most of these drafters applied the "sure, he's old, but I'll get three elite years out of him" logic.
That logic stinks. A RB over 29 is usually near the end of his productive career. A WR over 34 is usually near the end of his productive career. There are exceptions like Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice, but those guys are very few and far between.
You have to think ahead in dynasty. When you look at veterans like Harrison, you have to ask yourself where he'll be in two years. He'll be 37 years old. Even if he's one of the rare few who can remain productive into that age range, he'll almost certainly be on the decline and his dynasty trade value will be shot because old players have almost no trade value.
That doesn't mean you should rush out to trade Marvin Harrison for Ted Ginn, but there's no reason to take a great 35 year old over a great 26 year old. Both Harrison and Boldin have proven to be the real deal. In cases like these you should typically go with the younger player (especially when the age gap is 8+ years).
F&L's rankings are mostly spot on, but EBF is clearly right in this particular situation.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 18 2007, 10:01 PM)
I've made a lot of bad calls in the past, but I was dead on the money with my assessment of Alexander. People were taking a 29 year old RB in the top 3 of dynasty drafts. Most of these drafters applied the "sure, he's old, but I'll get three elite years out of him" logic.
I guess my beef was with your statement that it was "clear they were nearing the end of their playing days". I don't think it was really that clear with Alexander.
But overall, we agree that banking on a few more years of production out of a veteran like him is a very poor dynasty decision. I've definitely learned my lesson hard with Alexander (and possibly Rudi).
QUOTE (valhallan @ Oct 18 2007, 09:19 PM)
But overall, we agree that banking on a few more years of production out of a veteran like him is a very poor dynasty decision. I've definitely learned my lesson hard with Alexander (and possibly Rudi).
Thoughts on Ginn Jr.'s value now that he should see full-time snaps? I know it's the Dolphins but they should be playing from behind even more often now and he could definitely garner a lot of "garbage" time points.
Also, what are the odds that Beck sees the field in Week 10, after their bye?
Also, what are the odds that Beck sees the field in Week 10, after their bye?
Still no Kevin Walter in your rankings ?
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Oct 22 2007, 08:12 PM)
Still no Kevin Walter in your rankings ?
order has been restored.
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