QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 10:40 PM) 
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 29 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 10:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
Not watching the game, but I saw a lot of him in college. He showed flashes of brilliance and seemed almost unstoppable at times. I had him rated as the top QB in the class at the time of my 2005 rookie drafts. People got down on him when he failed to impress early on in GB, but there were quiet rumblings that he was steadily making strides. He's definitely an intriguing guy in a dynasty. I've been keeping him on my bench in Hyperactive for two years and I'm pretty pleased with the stats he's putting up tonight.
I view his value as comparable to that of Trent Edwards. The nice thing about Rodgers is that he has a better supporting cast and thus seems to have a little more short-term FF upside.
No "nfl.com/live" for you?
The break-ins are annoying, but it's better than nothing...
Using it now.
QUOTE (Michael J Fox @ Nov 29 2007, 11:09 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 09:58 AM)
QUOTE (Michael J Fox @ Nov 29 2007, 09:11 AM)
Why is Benson ranked below Adrian Peterson (of CHI)? I see Peterson as having close to zero value next year - he's a career backup - whereas Benson at least has a chance of being a starter. Thoughts?
Let's get this out of the way early: Benson is repulsively terrible. He runs at age 24 like Shaun Alexander runs at age 30.
I just moved Benson down from the 25 point tier last night. He's done for the year, so he can't help you this year.
What's in store for him next year? We're talking about the same franchise that wasted their Super Bowl window insisting that Rex Grossman was not an unmitigated disaster at QB, so you can't put anything past them. But common sense says they can't go into next season with Cedric Benson as their workhorse RB. They have to bring in somebody at least as insurance to split carries. Once that insurance policy gets in there, it won't take long to shove shabby Benson to the sidelines where he belongs.
At least Adrian Peterson can help you the rest of this season. When can Cedric Benson help you? Even if he gets a full load of carries next season, he's only hurting your lineup if you use him.
Thanks F&L, this makes sense to me. If I understand correctly, you're basically saying that Benson has little-to-no value because he won't be a workhorse RB next year. Got it.
I still see Peterson ranked too high - only because I place a very low dynasty value on having a player for weeks 13-17, with little go-forward value next year. But in general, I get your point.
Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal addressed Cedric Benson in his blog today:
QUOTE
If the Bears weren't going to look for a new starting running back before Cedric Benson's injury, they probably will now.
He's facing a long rehab and didn't impress this season. He still struggles with blitz pickup, and some believe the offense will be better without his limitations.
This tastefully named blog thinks the Bears should move on, but that's unrealistic. Even if Benson is overpaid, he'd be just as expensive to release.
Benson will be back, but at best he'll probably be splitting carries to open next season. It's possible that he will be a backup. If you own Benson in a keeper league, I can't imagine using a 2008 draft pick to retain him.
He's facing a long rehab and didn't impress this season. He still struggles with blitz pickup, and some believe the offense will be better without his limitations.
This tastefully named blog thinks the Bears should move on, but that's unrealistic. Even if Benson is overpaid, he'd be just as expensive to release.
Benson will be back, but at best he'll probably be splitting carries to open next season. It's possible that he will be a backup. If you own Benson in a keeper league, I can't imagine using a 2008 draft pick to retain him.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 09:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
looks pretty good.No he doesn't, he's a fugly dude, but he's playing well.
You can probably bump him up among the Russell/Clemens group. One of the bigger jumps in one game.
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Nov 29 2007, 10:57 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 09:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
looks pretty good.No he doesn't, he's a fugly dude, but he's playing well.
You can probably bump him up among the Russell/Clemens group. One of the bigger jumps in one game.
Wow! That would be a huge jump. Are you expecting Favre to be out for awhile and then retire after this season?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 10:02 PM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Nov 29 2007, 10:57 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 09:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
looks pretty good.No he doesn't, he's a fugly dude, but he's playing well.
You can probably bump him up among the Russell/Clemens group. One of the bigger jumps in one game.
Wow! That would be a huge jump. Are you expecting Favre to be out for awhile and then retire after this season?
I wouldn't be surprised to see Favre leave after this year.
You might be right, Russell is probably worth more, he has top potential. The others in that tier don't really though.
I'm just impressed with Rodger's play tonight
A couple more takes from around the fantasy football world on the Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn conundrum:
Gregg Rosenthal's Pancake Blocks blog:
Also, this one is long but worth the read. Check out the Profootballreference.com blog. It's worth clicking the link -- just print it out and take it with you.
A short excerpt:
Gregg Rosenthal's Pancake Blocks blog:
QUOTE
There will be a lot of talk concerning what the Browns should do with Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, but the final outcome is easy to predict: The Browns have to keep them both heading into 2008. Luckily for Browns fans, GM Phil Savage seems to recognize how important it is to maintain the position.
After searching for a decent quarterback for nearly a decade, the Browns can't possibly let Anderson go without knowing what they have in Quinn. And they shouldn't deal Quinn until Anderson backs up his breakout performance after defenses get more tape on him.
It's not like Quinn is an expensive backup. He is set to make $1.43 million in base salary next year, which is very affordable. The real question is how the Browns choose to keep Anderson.
1) They can offer Anderson the highest tender possible as a restricted free agent, but they risk losing him to another team. It's debatable whether another team would give up a first and third-round pick for Anderson, but it's certainly possible.
2) They can use the franchise tag on Anderson. If they want to ensure they keep Anderson in 2008, I think this is the way to go. They have plenty of cap room to get this done.
3) They can offer Anderson a long-term contract. I think this is inevitable, although the terms will be team-friendly. Perhaps they can offer Anderson a lucrative short-term deal that gives Anderson another chance for free agency in his prime. Anderson has collected very little money as a pro (relatively) and may be willing to take a below-market deal for some security. If Anderson passes on the deal, then they go with options 1 or 2.
This only becomes a Drew Brees-Philip Rivers situation after next season. They can give Brady Quinn another year to develop and possibly challenge Anderson for the job in training camp without sacrificing any momentum.
Having too many quarterbacks at reasonable salaries isn't a problem; it's a luxury. The Browns, of all teams, should understand that.
After searching for a decent quarterback for nearly a decade, the Browns can't possibly let Anderson go without knowing what they have in Quinn. And they shouldn't deal Quinn until Anderson backs up his breakout performance after defenses get more tape on him.
It's not like Quinn is an expensive backup. He is set to make $1.43 million in base salary next year, which is very affordable. The real question is how the Browns choose to keep Anderson.
1) They can offer Anderson the highest tender possible as a restricted free agent, but they risk losing him to another team. It's debatable whether another team would give up a first and third-round pick for Anderson, but it's certainly possible.
2) They can use the franchise tag on Anderson. If they want to ensure they keep Anderson in 2008, I think this is the way to go. They have plenty of cap room to get this done.
3) They can offer Anderson a long-term contract. I think this is inevitable, although the terms will be team-friendly. Perhaps they can offer Anderson a lucrative short-term deal that gives Anderson another chance for free agency in his prime. Anderson has collected very little money as a pro (relatively) and may be willing to take a below-market deal for some security. If Anderson passes on the deal, then they go with options 1 or 2.
This only becomes a Drew Brees-Philip Rivers situation after next season. They can give Brady Quinn another year to develop and possibly challenge Anderson for the job in training camp without sacrificing any momentum.
Having too many quarterbacks at reasonable salaries isn't a problem; it's a luxury. The Browns, of all teams, should understand that.
Also, this one is long but worth the read. Check out the Profootballreference.com blog. It's worth clicking the link -- just print it out and take it with you.
A short excerpt:
QUOTE
As it turns out, in looking at my list of comparables and dissecting it any number of ways, the “Derek Andersons” dominate the “Brady Quinns” in virtually every measure, except for number of opportunities to continue to fail.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 07:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
I've followed his career (what little there has been) closely because he went to my old high school in Chico CA (go Pleasant Valley Vikings!) and graduated in the same class as my son. From there he went to Cal, 20 miles from where I live, and I followed his college career pretty closely. Weeks before draft day it was speculated by some that he'd be the #1 overall pick, but as ESPN so painfully chronicled as it was happening, he dropped all the way to Green Bay at pick 20-something.
Coming out of Cal and going to Green Bay, there was first of all a big culture/climate shock. He had always been a California boy and played on the west coast. Adjusting to the upper midwest weather and serving as understudy to Favre, who openly said at first that he wasn't interested in being Rodgers' mentor, made for a tough start. He was like a deer in the headlights and was absolutely terrible in his first year. Somewhat better in his second year, but still not where you would think a former 1st round pick should be. And there was the broken foot.
But this year the light bulb went on. I could see it in preseason, where it was apparent he had command of the offense and confidence in himself. The times he's been called on to play he's looked good. And tonight he's showing he has "it" I think. Once Favre retires, I really believe Rodgers will be a very good starting QB. He can make all the throws, always showed poise in the pocket at Cal, and makes good decisions. He has talent around him. And after two years watching and learning, he has matured. I've been a buyer this year, and once he's the starter I can see him quickly moving into that QB12-16 range. We'll see where experience takes him from there.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 06:31 PM)
QUOTE (valhallan @ Nov 29 2007, 01:41 PM)
I've been watching your ranking on Evans all year waiting for it to fall because I just don't believe I have a top 15 dynasty receiver in him. Upon reading the post that I quoted above, I went to page 1 to see your new rankings and he didn't move. Seemed strange to me. If not his status as a top 15 dynasty receiver, what else is there to "fess up on Lee Evans" about? The streaky play and weak quarterbacking is the same story we've read for 4 years now.
Sorry to be nitpicking your rankings, as I see that's gotten tiresome. I do appreciate the work and dialogue you've contributed and created with this thread.
Sorry to be nitpicking your rankings, as I see that's gotten tiresome. I do appreciate the work and dialogue you've contributed and created with this thread.
If you've been watching all year, then you know he was about 7th to start the season...well within Tier One. I've dropped him several times throughout the year to get him to 15th.
I don't know what you mean that he didn't move when you went back to check. I didn't move him in between your two posts today. I've moved him down gradually over the past three weeks behind Calvin Johnson, Colston, & Boldin. I'm confused by this.
I "fessed up" on Lee Evans because I've been among his biggest backers for over a year now, and I'm admitting that I had to trade him for players on playoff teams while his value was relatively high. Just one sentence later, I said "to be fair, I probably would have kept him if I wasn't playing in playoff leagues." I fessed up to trading him because I needed players on good NFL teams. I didn't say I was bailing on him because he sucks.
I guess what this exchange comes down to is that you want me to say that Lee Evans isn't a Top 15 dynasty WR, when I believe that's exactly what he is -- right in the 15 range among dynasty WRs.
Yes, he was in tier 1 to start the season.
What I mean by checking back is just what I said: your post on the 25th prompted me to check the first page (we don't all start there every time) and I noticed your comments didn't pair up with a downgrade in ranking. That's all. I see the moves with Boldin, Colston (on board with those two), and Calvin.
Ok with your trade explanation. I obviously over-analyzed the "fess up" statement.
No, I don't want you to say he isn't a top 15 guy. I want you to give me good reason to think some of the guys below him deserve to be there (in relation to Evans). However, you pretty much covered that in your response to Burning Sensation above.
Rodgers was one of the underranked guys to me, but since you want to hear about them before they make noise, here's my list.
Luke Mccown
JJ Arrington
Leon Washington
Correll Buckhalter
Bernard Berrian
Bryant Johnson
Drew Carter
Marcedes Lewis
Luke Mccown
JJ Arrington
Leon Washington
Correll Buckhalter
Bernard Berrian
Bryant Johnson
Drew Carter
Marcedes Lewis
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 25 2007, 07:02 PM)
Jamal Lewis' rejuvenation has largely flown under the radar this season. He's far from the ideal dynasty RB, but he's averaging over 4.0 YPC in a stellar offense and getting goal-line carries as well as a few receptions. With his dreamy schedule down the stretch, I think he's a much better use of a dynasty roster spot than guys like Rudi Johnson and Thomas Jones. I would personally take him over LenDale White as well. The question is: will Cleveland re-sign him after the season? As effective as he's been, I would think so....as long as the price in years and dollars is reasonable.
For any Jamal Lewis owners looking for info about Cleveland's intentions at RB next season, the Cleveland Plain Dealer weighs in:
Jamal Lewis' future with Cleveland Browns up in the air
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Mary Kay Cabot
Plain Dealer Reporter
QUOTE
Jamal Lewis' future with the Browns is still up in the air, Browns General Manager Phil Savage said Wednesday.
Lewis' contract is up after this season, but the two sides have yet to begin renegotiating. He was signed to a one-year deal in the off-season worth $3.5 million, with another $1.5 million in incentives.
"Jamal and I have a good relationship," said Savage. "I'll keep him in the loop in terms of what we decide to do. I have enough respect for him that if I went to him and told him we were going to go in a different direction, he'd appreciate that. If I go to him and say, 'Hey, Jamal, we want to do something for next year,' I think he'd appreciate that as well. But I think he's laid it out there for us, and it's been great to see."
If Lewis keeps running the way he has the past two games, the Browns will be hard-pressed not to re-sign him. In victories over Baltimore and Houston, he averaged 113 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. Last week against Houston, he gained 134 yards, including 91 in the second half.
"I've said all along, a good Jamal is a hungry Jamal," said Savage. "That theme has played out well this year. Jamal has given us a demeanor, a toughness and just a temperament on offense that we didn't have before. That's part of this that can't be measured.
"Just his presence has given us something that we didn't have before. That has to be factored in as we're trying to decide what we're going to do. But he's got the remaining five games and hopefully beyond that to continue to play well for us."
Savage said the running back debate will be right up there in the off-season with that of the quarterbacks. Overall, Lewis has rushed for 741 yards and is on pace for 1,184. He's also rushed for six TDs over the past four games and eight on the season, the most since Kevin Mack in 1991.
"We've obviously discussed some [options] behind the scenes, but I think it will become more and more formulized going forward," said Savage.
Lewis' contract is up after this season, but the two sides have yet to begin renegotiating. He was signed to a one-year deal in the off-season worth $3.5 million, with another $1.5 million in incentives.
"Jamal and I have a good relationship," said Savage. "I'll keep him in the loop in terms of what we decide to do. I have enough respect for him that if I went to him and told him we were going to go in a different direction, he'd appreciate that. If I go to him and say, 'Hey, Jamal, we want to do something for next year,' I think he'd appreciate that as well. But I think he's laid it out there for us, and it's been great to see."
If Lewis keeps running the way he has the past two games, the Browns will be hard-pressed not to re-sign him. In victories over Baltimore and Houston, he averaged 113 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. Last week against Houston, he gained 134 yards, including 91 in the second half.
"I've said all along, a good Jamal is a hungry Jamal," said Savage. "That theme has played out well this year. Jamal has given us a demeanor, a toughness and just a temperament on offense that we didn't have before. That's part of this that can't be measured.
"Just his presence has given us something that we didn't have before. That has to be factored in as we're trying to decide what we're going to do. But he's got the remaining five games and hopefully beyond that to continue to play well for us."
Savage said the running back debate will be right up there in the off-season with that of the quarterbacks. Overall, Lewis has rushed for 741 yards and is on pace for 1,184. He's also rushed for six TDs over the past four games and eight on the season, the most since Kevin Mack in 1991.
"We've obviously discussed some [options] behind the scenes, but I think it will become more and more formulized going forward," said Savage.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Nov 29 2007, 10:23 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 07:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
I've followed his career (what little there has been) closely because he went to my old high school in Chico CA (go Pleasant Valley Vikings!) and graduated in the same class as my son. From there he went to Cal, 20 miles from where I live, and I followed his college career pretty closely. Weeks before draft day it was speculated by some that he'd be the #1 overall pick, but as ESPN so painfully chronicled as it was happening, he dropped all the way to Green Bay at pick 20-something.
Coming out of Cal and going to Green Bay, there was first of all a big culture/climate shock. He had always been a California boy and played on the west coast. Adjusting to the upper midwest weather and serving as understudy to Favre, who openly said at first that he wasn't interested in being Rodgers' mentor, made for a tough start. He was like a deer in the headlights and was absolutely terrible in his first year. Somewhat better in his second year, but still not where you would think a former 1st round pick should be. And there was the broken foot.
But this year the light bulb went on. I could see it in preseason, where it was apparent he had command of the offense and confidence in himself. The times he's been called on to play he's looked good. And tonight he's showing he has "it" I think. Once Favre retires, I really believe Rodgers will be a very good starting QB. He can make all the throws, always showed poise in the pocket at Cal, and makes good decisions. He has talent around him. And after two years watching and learning, he has matured. I've been a buyer this year, and once he's the starter I can see him quickly moving into that QB12-16 range. We'll see where experience takes him from there.
Nice post Couch Potato.
The reason I brought up Aaron Rodgers as underrated a while back, is I saw this preseason what you all saw tonight. Rodgers has always had the confidence and the right amount of swagger to play the position. Now he's just able to back it up with his play on the field. I do still think he's a year and a half away from starting as Favre will most likely play next season.
Don't get me wrong, I am not 100% that Rodgers is ever going to be a starting fantasy QB. Nobody has game planned against him yet, and there is little to no film on the guy. Plus this was his first real test in a hostile environment, and although he looked good, he came up short. To me a QB's mental makeup is as important as his physical attributes. We have yet to really see how Rodgers would perform when given the job as the Man.
Having said that, I definitely think he belongs in the next tier with Kolb, Beck, Edwards and Quinn. All of them have shown in some fashion that they can play. A long way to go to be fantasy starters though.
The other thing that F&L has been touching on is Jennings ability to score TDs. I think many saw today what we Packer fans have been seeing for a while. Jennings is special with his run after the catch abilities. He made 5-6 guys miss on the one long pass play tonight. That was fantastic, and while he doesn't regularly make that many guys miss, he certainly makes a few miss each game, and that has led to some really long TDs for him. Jennings also has a great ability to create space. Most Packer receivers are barely open when the ball is delivered to them (they have a step or two). Jennings seems to be able to get some yards between him and the corner. I think he just has a great feel for the game, and his route running is superior to most WRs. The only concern is that Jennings' catch numbers are relatively low. (4.4/game) I think that has a lot to do with the Packers offense spreading wide with 5 WRs, and Favre having the ability to go through his progessions rapidly. I think that has more influence on that stat than any shortcoming that Jennings may have. To me, Jennings is a solid tier #2 WR.
I think I am also starting to get a gauge on James Jones now too. Despite a couple of drops tonight the guys hands have been awesome. He catches everything thrown to him. His YAC in no way resembles that of Driver or Jennings though. I don't think he'll fall into the category as a complete possession type WR. I just think the play where he beat Champ Bailey for the long TD will be the exception rather than the norm. My early opinion is that his upside may be at a high end #2 fantasy WR.
QUOTE (Kitrick Taylor @ Nov 30 2007, 01:54 AM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Nov 29 2007, 10:23 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 07:23 PM)
Any thoughts on Aaron Rodgers' future while he's playing tonight? I thought he was clearly not ready to play in the NFL when he was drafted, but sitting behind Favre for a few years has done wonders for him. This is the best he's ever looked by far...
Kitrick? What say ye?
Kitrick? What say ye?
I've followed his career (what little there has been) closely because he went to my old high school in Chico CA (go Pleasant Valley Vikings!) and graduated in the same class as my son. From there he went to Cal, 20 miles from where I live, and I followed his college career pretty closely. Weeks before draft day it was speculated by some that he'd be the #1 overall pick, but as ESPN so painfully chronicled as it was happening, he dropped all the way to Green Bay at pick 20-something.
Coming out of Cal and going to Green Bay, there was first of all a big culture/climate shock. He had always been a California boy and played on the west coast. Adjusting to the upper midwest weather and serving as understudy to Favre, who openly said at first that he wasn't interested in being Rodgers' mentor, made for a tough start. He was like a deer in the headlights and was absolutely terrible in his first year. Somewhat better in his second year, but still not where you would think a former 1st round pick should be. And there was the broken foot.
But this year the light bulb went on. I could see it in preseason, where it was apparent he had command of the offense and confidence in himself. The times he's been called on to play he's looked good. And tonight he's showing he has "it" I think. Once Favre retires, I really believe Rodgers will be a very good starting QB. He can make all the throws, always showed poise in the pocket at Cal, and makes good decisions. He has talent around him. And after two years watching and learning, he has matured. I've been a buyer this year, and once he's the starter I can see him quickly moving into that QB12-16 range. We'll see where experience takes him from there.
Nice post Couch Potato.
The reason I brought up Aaron Rodgers as underrated a while back, is I saw this preseason what you all saw tonight. Rodgers has always had the confidence and the right amount of swagger to play the position. Now he's just able to back it up with his play on the field. I do still think he's a year and a half away from starting as Favre will most likely play next season.
Don't get me wrong, I am not 100% that Rodgers is ever going to be a starting fantasy QB. Nobody has game planned against him yet, and there is little to no film on the guy. Plus this was his first real test in a hostile environment, and although he looked good, he came up short. To me a QB's mental makeup is as important as his physical attributes. We have yet to really see how Rodgers would perform when given the job as the Man.
Having said that, I definitely think he belongs in the next tier with Kolb, Beck, Edwards and Quinn. All of them have shown in some fashion that they can play. A long way to go to be fantasy starters though.
The other thing that F&L has been touching on is Jennings ability to score TDs. I think many saw today what we Packer fans have been seeing for a while. Jennings is special with his run after the catch abilities. He made 5-6 guys miss on the one long pass play tonight. That was fantastic, and while he doesn't regularly make that many guys miss, he certainly makes a few miss each game, and that has led to some really long TDs for him. Jennings also has a great ability to create space. Most Packer receivers are barely open when the ball is delivered to them (they have a step or two). Jennings seems to be able to get some yards between him and the corner. I think he just has a great feel for the game, and his route running is superior to most WRs. The only concern is that Jennings' catch numbers are relatively low. (4.4/game) I think that has a lot to do with the Packers offense spreading wide with 5 WRs, and Favre having the ability to go through his progessions rapidly. I think that has more influence on that stat than any shortcoming that Jennings may have. To me, Jennings is a solid tier #2 WR.
I think I am also starting to get a gauge on James Jones now too. Despite a couple of drops tonight the guys hands have been awesome. He catches everything thrown to him. His YAC in no way resembles that of Driver or Jennings though. I don't think he'll fall into the category as a complete possession type WR. I just think the play where he beat Champ Bailey for the long TD will be the exception rather than the norm. My early opinion is that his upside may be at a high end #2 fantasy WR.
Thanks, Kitrick & Couch Potato. Excellent analysis.
QUOTE (Onions @ Nov 14 2007, 01:53 AM)
With this in mind, who are some lesser-known RBs who might be worth rostering this off-season, with a chance to increase their value by Opening Day 2008?
He's obviously not going to unseat Marshawn Lynch, but here's some very nice coach glow about Bills' RB Fred Jackson:
Jackson could start at RB for Bills on Sunday
Sal Maiorana
Staff writer
(November 30, 2007) — ORCHARD PARK —Running back Fred Jackson was one of the most noticeable players this past summer when the Bills were sweating through training camp at St. John Fisher College.
Of course, that's the way it is with many young players who get opportunities to shine in the preseason, then are never heard from in the NFL again.
"He does it in a preseason game and you want to say 'Aw, it's the second half of a preseason game,''' Bills offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild said, recalling how Jackson led the Bills with 125 rushing yards and scored three touchdowns in the meaningless exhibition season.
But there was something different about Jackson, an unmistakable quality to his performance regardless of the weaker competition he was facing, and it was enough to convince Fairchild and coach Dick Jauron to keep him on the active 53-man roster after he'd spent all of 2006 on the team's practice squad.
"He's done a good job every time we've asked him to do something, be it at practice or in a preseason game, every time he's had the opportunity he's come through and played well,'' said Fairchild.
Jackson will apparently get a big opportunity Sunday in Washington as he will probably be the starter at FedEx Field in place of the injured Marshawn Lynch and Anthony Thomas.
"I'm excited about it and I'm looking forward to the opportunity if it presents itself," Jackson said. "I want to go out and make some things happen.''
Jauron announced Wednesday that he wasn't optimistic about Lynch being able to play, and on Thursday he said Thomas' leg injury will most likely keep him out of action as well.
Pressed into his most extensive duty last week in Jacksonville after Thomas was hurt in the second half, Jackson rushed five times for 18 yards including one impressive one-yard gain that converted a fourth down in the third quarter, and caught five passes for 47 yards during Buffalo's loss to the Jaguars.
"He did it when it counted, and he's such a great kid so it was nice to see," Fairchild said. "That's how dumb we are as coaches, sometimes it has to happen in a game to believe it, but he's always done a nice job whenever we've asked him to do anything. I'm glad he came through and he should get more of an opportunity now.''
That performance, and the fact that rookie Dwayne Wright isn't ready to handle more than spot duty, has catapulted Jackson to the top of the depth chart, and Jauron said he's comfortable with that. "Fred sure got an expanded role last week and he played well in that role," said Jauron. "And he played well in his limited role against the Patriots, so if that's where it takes us we feel OK with that.
"I kind of said all along Fred really had a tremendous preseason. The preseason is different than the regular season, but in the last two games he's been in there against the varsity so to speak and he looked the same as he looked in preseason. We're hoping that Anthony comes back fast enough. If he doesn't, then that's where we'll be and we feel pretty good about it.''
Jackson played at Marv Levy's alma mater, Coe College, a Division III school in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He was not drafted by an NFL team, so he played two seasons with the Sioux City Bandits of the United Indoor Football League, then spent the spring of 2006 in NFL Europe playing for Rhein where he led the team with 731 rushing yards.
The Bills signed him to their practice squad prior to the 2006 season opener and he stayed there all season, then made his push to the active roster with strong offseason work, which carried over to training camp.
"I knew coming in that I was going to have to go out and prove myself," said Jackson. "I knew I had to have the best preseason possible and I was able to do that, so it was a good building block for me. I knew it was going to take everything I had to come out and show that I belonged on the team.''
That's because the Bills used two of their 2007 draft picks on Lynch and Wright, and with veterans Thomas and Shaud Williams already on the roster, it looked like Jackson had a daunting task.
The 26-year-old said he was up for the challenge, but it also occurred to him that this might be his last chance at a football career. "You definitely start to think about that, you have to have a backup plan, and I got my degree and there was a point where I was thinking maybe this isn't going to work out,'' said Jackson, who worked briefly as a youth counselor a couple years ago in Sioux City.
"I can't say there was one major event that changed things for me. I got the opportunity to go over and play in NFL Europe and I was able to perform when I was there, and I came back and was able to come here and make the practice squad. If anything, that was it, being able to be part of this team and be on the practice squad where I was able to get the looks and get some of the coaches to notice I was here.''
They're noticing Jackson now. And they may be calling his number often Sunday.
QUOTE
“In the last two games, he’s been in there against the varsity, so to speak, and I thought he looked the same as he looked in preseason,” Bills coach Dick Jauron said. “He looks fast. He looks elusive. He’s tough. He catches the ball well. He runs it well. He runs it hard. I was very impressed with his game.”
From Bucky Brooks' Scout's Notebook at SI.com:
Tarvaris Jackson:
Eli Manning:
JaMarcus Russell:
Tarvaris Jackson:
QUOTE
Defenses are finding it increasingly more difficult to defend the Vikings' offense because of Tarvaris Jackson's improved play. The second year signal caller is finding his groove as a passer and benefitting from defenses focusing on stopping their top-ranked rush attack. Jackson has completed 45 of 58 passes for 504 yards in the past three games after only completing 46 percent of his passes during his first five starts. The key has been improved accuracy and better chemistry with his receivers on play-action passes.
Eli Manning:
QUOTE
Even though he won on Sunday, Eli Manning's poor decision making continues to plague the Giants' offense. His mistakes cost the New York points and field position, and his ineffectiveness is limiting Kevin Gilbride's options as a play caller. Unable to trust his young signal-caller, Gilbride opted to use a conservative game plan for most of Sunday's game against Chicago. To Manning's credit, he bounced back from the poor showing with a solid fourth quarter (7-of-9 for 95 yards with one touchdown). But he will need to take better care of the ball for the Giants to make a serious run at a playoff berth down the stretch.
JaMarcus Russell:
QUOTE
JaMarcus Russell's had a solid debut for the Raiders. The top overall pick completed 4 of 7 passes for 56 yards, but also had two fumbles on his initial drive. Despite those fumbles, Russell's arm strength and accuracy complement the Raiders' power running game. His completions to Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry on deep out-breaking routes showcased the big arm. Though Russell only received limited playing time, his solid performance will likely lead to more snaps as Oakland prepards Russell to be next season's starting quarterback.
Peter King on Randy Moss' future with the Patriots:
Aaron Rodgers:
QUOTE
I think if you're looking for an update on Randy Moss' contract status for 2008, you won't get a solid one anywhere, because he and the Patriots aren't going to talk turkey until after the season, from all accounts. But I spoke to a close acquaintance of Moss' the other day, and here's his feeling on what the reborn receiver will do in free agency:
"Randy is as happy now as I've seen him, ever. He's finally in a place where everything on a football team is done right -- front office, coaching, the offense they run. He loves the team, loves the organization. My gut feeling is if they're competitive within the market, he'll stay and not want to go anywhere else. If the Pats step out right away, like it did with Adalius Thomas last year, and offers him a market deal -- even if it's not every last penny he could get somewhere else -- my gut feeling is he'd definitely want to stay. But if he thinks New England is low-balling him, then I don't know.''
Tough call for the Patriots. Moss will be 31 next year, his 11th NFL season. He's had injury and loafing issues in the last three years, and he hasn't always been a great offseason workout guy. How much the Patriots will want to pay him up front, with a salary cap that has to account for so many standout players, will be an interesting story in February, regardless of whether New England wins the Super Bowl.
One last thought: If Moss is so serious about winning and being with a great team for the rest of his career, he'll do what Brady did three years ago. After Peyton Manning signed for $16 million a year and Michael Vick $14 million a year -- on average -- Brady did a six-year deal for $60 million, knowing he could make a boatload of money off the field and knowing the Patriots would use the savings on his deal to sign players like Thomas and Moss. If Moss is serious about being with a winner long term, he'll do the same thing.
"Randy is as happy now as I've seen him, ever. He's finally in a place where everything on a football team is done right -- front office, coaching, the offense they run. He loves the team, loves the organization. My gut feeling is if they're competitive within the market, he'll stay and not want to go anywhere else. If the Pats step out right away, like it did with Adalius Thomas last year, and offers him a market deal -- even if it's not every last penny he could get somewhere else -- my gut feeling is he'd definitely want to stay. But if he thinks New England is low-balling him, then I don't know.''
Tough call for the Patriots. Moss will be 31 next year, his 11th NFL season. He's had injury and loafing issues in the last three years, and he hasn't always been a great offseason workout guy. How much the Patriots will want to pay him up front, with a salary cap that has to account for so many standout players, will be an interesting story in February, regardless of whether New England wins the Super Bowl.
One last thought: If Moss is so serious about winning and being with a great team for the rest of his career, he'll do what Brady did three years ago. After Peyton Manning signed for $16 million a year and Michael Vick $14 million a year -- on average -- Brady did a six-year deal for $60 million, knowing he could make a boatload of money off the field and knowing the Patriots would use the savings on his deal to sign players like Thomas and Moss. If Moss is serious about being with a winner long term, he'll do the same thing.
Aaron Rodgers:
QUOTE
I think Aaron Rodgers is making Packer Nation sleep a little better in the wake of the drubbing Green Bay took in Dallas. I spoke to Rodgers two or three weeks ago on another matter, and asked him how he was doing. He made an interesting point. He said as much as he didn't like sitting on the bench for most of three years, sitting and soaking in knowledge from Brett Favre and a good offensive staff like Mike McCarthy's has helped him smooth out the rough edges in his game and now has total confidence running the system there. "Now,'' he said, "when Donald Driver looks at me, he knows he can have confidence in me. That wouldn't have been the case in my rookie year. I'm just so much more comfortable.'' It showed Thursday night in Dallas. Plus, the Rodgers-Favre relationship has improved drastically -- to the point where now Rodgers has gone to Favre's house for dinner. Remember two seasons ago, when the relationship was chilly? " 'Chilly' is the wrong word, I'd say,'' Rodgers told me. "'Third wheel' is better. Our relationship has gone from strictly business the first year to a little bit of a buddy role my second year to being really close friends now.''
I don't get why Kevin Jones is so low on this list. He's top 10, maybe higher for PPR. Yet he's at the bottom of tier 3? Below Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham? Cmon. I get that the Lions aren't exactly the biggest running team on earth, but I see him like a mini-Marshall Faulk. Sorry if he's already been mentioned, but I didn't want to go through 26 pages of comments.
QUOTE (radiohead417 @ Dec 3 2007, 08:44 AM)
I don't get why Kevin Jones is so low on this list. He's top 10, maybe higher for PPR. Yet he's at the bottom of tier 3? Below Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham? Cmon. I get that the Lions aren't exactly the biggest running team on earth, but I see him like a mini-Marshall Faulk. Sorry if he's already been mentioned, but I didn't want to go through 26 pages of comments.
You SHOULD go through 26 pages of comments in this thread. IMO, this is probably the best thread in the Shark Pool and worth reading just about every post.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Dec 3 2007, 09:58 AM)
QUOTE (radiohead417 @ Dec 3 2007, 08:44 AM)
I don't get why Kevin Jones is so low on this list. He's top 10, maybe higher for PPR. Yet he's at the bottom of tier 3? Below Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham? Cmon. I get that the Lions aren't exactly the biggest running team on earth, but I see him like a mini-Marshall Faulk. Sorry if he's already been mentioned, but I didn't want to go through 26 pages of comments.
You SHOULD go through 26 pages of comments in this thread. IMO, this is probably the best thread in the Shark Pool and worth reading just about every post.
OK, I don't have time to go through 26 pages of comments *right now*. Bosses tend to frown on that much time away from work. I do appreciate the thread.
I know this is way early, but out of curiosity where would McFadden end up amongst this list, assuming he goes to the Jets or Raiders (the teams at the bottom of the standings most likely to take a RB). I saw you had Peterson ranked at 6 following the draft, so is it safe to assume McFadden would be somewhere around 10-12? I know this was discussed maybe a month and a half ago, but the list of potential landing spots has been narrowed down a lot so I figured it couldn't hurt to see if anything has changed.
Great list, and I think you'll be bumping up Sidney Rice on more than one occasion.
Great list, and I think you'll be bumping up Sidney Rice on more than one occasion.
QUOTE (radiohead417 @ Dec 3 2007, 09:44 AM)
I don't get why Kevin Jones is so low on this list. He's top 10, maybe higher for PPR. Yet he's at the bottom of tier 3? Below Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham? Cmon. I get that the Lions aren't exactly the biggest running team on earth, but I see him like a mini-Marshall Faulk. Sorry if he's already been mentioned, but I didn't want to go through 26 pages of comments.
Top 10 what? In value in your eyes? In production? In likely to go down with an injury at any moment? I don't see how you can say Jones is a Top 10 dynasty RB in value if that's what you're implying.
I don't see him as a mini-Faulk at all, and I'm guessing you're taking the Mike Martz connection and Jones' ability to catch the ball to the illogical conclusion that Jones is similar to Faulk as a player. If I'm wrong, please correct me. Jones' effectiveness as a runner has been below average for a NFL RB since he came into the league and simply pales in comparison to Faulk's. He may well be an above average receiving back, but he's not even close to Faulk's neighborhood there.
But to answer your original question, there are two main reasons I have Kevin Jones where I do:
1. I have zero confidence in his ability to stay healthy. I don't think you can count on Kevin Jones for more than one game at a time, and that is a major problem in dynasty leagues. If you're not put off by his constant injuries, then I'm sure he has more value to you. Personally, I'd find a Kevin Jones lover in your league and wash my hands of him....but that's just me.
2. Despite his reputation as an offensive genius who is great for his RB's value, Mike Martz' use of Jones is simply unacceptable from a dynasty value standpoint. Let's take a look at the last four weeks: four rushes for -4 yards, 11 rushes for 25 yards, 20 rushes for 93 yards, and three rushes for one yard. Thud. That's a recipe for sustained fantasy football failure right there. Martz had the same problem later in his St. Louis career too: he simply abandons the running game and gets pass happy, which leads to losing football games in addition to poor RB production. Keep in mind how he held down Steven Jackson's production while he was in St. Louis as well. It wasn't until after Martz left that Jackson was finally given a regular workload.
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 3 2007, 10:19 AM)
I know this is way early, but out of curiosity where would McFadden end up amongst this list, assuming he goes to the Jets or Raiders (the teams at the bottom of the standings most likely to take a RB). I saw you had Peterson ranked at 6 following the draft, so is it safe to assume McFadden would be somewhere around 10-12? I know this was discussed maybe a month and a half ago, but the list of potential landing spots has been narrowed down a lot so I figured it couldn't hurt to see if anything has changed.
Great list, and I think you'll be bumping up Sidney Rice on more than one occasion.
Great list, and I think you'll be bumping up Sidney Rice on more than one occasion.
I hadn't even given a moment's thought to where McFadden would end up on this list. Unlike with Adrian Peterson, McFadden's NFL landing spot will likely play a significant factor in determining his value. Peterson's dominant talent was going to leave him an elite RB no matter who drafted him. He was so obscenely talented that a productive vet like Chester Taylor couldn't hold down his value. I don't think we can say the same thing with McFadden....but I do think McFadden will be overhyped on the trails of Peterson's rookie season. People will expect him to come in and do his best Peterson impression, and he's simply not that good. I don't think 10-12 will be too far off. Somewhere around the Willie Parker/Willis McGahee neighborhood depending on the situation awaiting McFadden in the NFL, but that's just an early guess.
What about the Falcons? I think people are taking it for granted that Petrino will want to draft a high 1st round franchise QB (Brohm?) when RB is a glaring need for them as well. If McFadden grades out higher than Brohm, Ryan, Brennan & Woodson, then Atlanta might be the landing spot for McFadden. We'll have to wait and see how the rest of this season plays out.
I have no doubt I'll be bumping Sidney Rice. He's been moving up steadily. If Tarvaris Jackson continues to improve, it will help Rice bypass quite a few receivers. I'm excited about Rice's talent.
I have not seen a lot of the Vikings this season, but comparing Tarvaris Jackson yesterday against the Lions compared to week two against the Lions is like night and day. He looked completely lost in week 2 and showed nothing. Yesterday, he played with a lot of poise, made good decisions, had some pocket presence (the most surprising thing to me), and was very accurate all game long. He did none of this in week 2. I was very impressed with everything about his game. Even though it was against a terrible defense, he showed a lot of improvement from week two until yesterdays game.
I think sometimes people forget he came from a small college and was very raw coming into the league. While it's too early to say whether or not he will pan out as a QB, at least there are signs of life in his last three games.
I think sometimes people forget he came from a small college and was very raw coming into the league. While it's too early to say whether or not he will pan out as a QB, at least there are signs of life in his last three games.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 3 2007, 11:04 AM)
I have no doubt I'll be bumping Sidney Rice. He's been moving up steadily. If Tarvaris Jackson continues to improve, it will help Rice bypass quite a few receivers. I'm excited about Rice's talent.
No offense, but didn't I just read a rant about how we needed to anticipate more and stop being so reactionary? If you have no doubt that you will eventually be bumping Rice, why not bump him now? Put him where you think he belongs, regardless of what he's accomplished so far.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Dec 3 2007, 02:12 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 3 2007, 11:04 AM)
I have no doubt I'll be bumping Sidney Rice. He's been moving up steadily. If Tarvaris Jackson continues to improve, it will help Rice bypass quite a few receivers. I'm excited about Rice's talent.
No offense, but didn't I just read a rant about how we needed to anticipate more and stop being so reactionary? If you have no doubt that you will eventually be bumping Rice, why not bump him now? Put him where you think he belongs, regardless of what he's accomplished so far.
I did. I bumped him last night. And I gave him a nice bump the week before.
I may bump him again tonight. As of last night, I put him where I thought he belonged. As much potential as he possesses, I have to weigh whether that makes him more valuable than players who are talented, have productive yet inconsistent histories, and are often starting and contributing weekly. When I update the rankings, I don't always have the time to weigh every factor involved for each of the hundreds of players right after the games on Sundays. I hope to take a more in-depth look at Rice and a few others later tonight...
Here's the tricky thing with WRs in dynasty leagues as opposed to RBs: you have your Top 20 or so reliable weekly starters and then you have a whole slew of talented prospects who could end up in that Top 20 weekly starter category some day. Despite the fact that we all have our own personal favorites in the talented prospect category, the majority of them will wash out and never hit the dependable starter stage. Is Rice one that will succeed? I think so, but it's far from certain and there are factors beyond Rice's control here. We're overreacting to Tarvaris Jackson's nice game, of course, so I have to weigh how much of that is the possibility that Jackson reached some level of QB epiphany versus simply performing well versus a Lions defense that served up outlier games to quite a few QBs this season including Josh McCown, McNabb, Jason Campbell, Jeff Garcia, Eli Manning, and Favre.
I'm still weighing that potential versus reliability equation that is at the heart of all dynasty rankings. I promise to firm up my stance by tonight.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 3 2007, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (radiohead417 @ Dec 3 2007, 09:44 AM)
I don't get why Kevin Jones is so low on this list. He's top 10, maybe higher for PPR. Yet he's at the bottom of tier 3? Below Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham? Cmon. I get that the Lions aren't exactly the biggest running team on earth, but I see him like a mini-Marshall Faulk. Sorry if he's already been mentioned, but I didn't want to go through 26 pages of comments.
Top 10 what? In value in your eyes? In production? In likely to go down with an injury at any moment? I don't see how you can say Jones is a Top 10 dynasty RB in value if that's what you're implying.
I don't see him as a mini-Faulk at all, and I'm guessing you're taking the Mike Martz connection and Jones' ability to catch the ball to the illogical conclusion that Jones is similar to Faulk as a player. If I'm wrong, please correct me. Jones' effectiveness as a runner has been below average for a NFL RB since he came into the league and simply pales in comparison to Faulk's. He may well be an above average receiving back, but he's not even close to Faulk's neighborhood there.
But to answer your original question, there are two main reasons I have Kevin Jones where I do:
1. I have zero confidence in his ability to stay healthy. I don't think you can count on Kevin Jones for more than one game at a time, and that is a major problem in dynasty leagues. If you're not put off by his constant injuries, then I'm sure he has more value to you. Personally, I'd find a Kevin Jones lover in your league and wash my hands of him....but that's just me.
2. Despite his reputation as an offensive genius who is great for his RB's value, Mike Martz' use of Jones is simply unacceptable from a dynasty value standpoint. Let's take a look at the last four weeks: four rushes for -4 yards, 11 rushes for 25 yards, 20 rushes for 93 yards, and three rushes for one yard. Thud. That's a recipe for sustained fantasy football failure right there. Martz had the same problem later in his St. Louis career too: he simply abandons the running game and gets pass happy, which leads to losing football games in addition to poor RB production. Keep in mind how he held down Steven Jackson's production while he was in St. Louis as well. It wasn't until after Martz left that Jackson was finally given a regular workload.
I agree, Jones isn't Marshall Faulk. Faulk is a hall of famer who scored 20+ TDs. But I do think Jones' last few weeks have had a lot to do with Detroit playing poorly more than his lack of ability.
Even so, you take away weeks 1 & 2, he's ahead of guys like:
Willie Parker, Frank Gore, LenDale White, Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, etc. I'm just saying, I think he's undervalued according to this system. He's a solid RB2 imo, for dynasty purposes. I don't see why there's that much trepidation with him, and not say, Brian Westbrook (a PPR beast, who I also think is underrated). Jones started 39 of 48 games from 2004-2006, and that's with rookie issues too. That's pretty durable for a RB. Nobody likes to have a guy who had a lis franc, but I think he's better than where he's listed.
Just my .02
How can I print the last couple pages of this thread in the print view?
QUOTE (radiohead417 @ Dec 3 2007, 03:22 PM)
I agree, Jones isn't Marshall Faulk. Faulk is a hall of famer who scored 20+ TDs. But I do think Jones' last few weeks have had a lot to do with Detroit playing poorly more than his lack of ability.
Even so, you take away weeks 1 & 2, he's ahead of guys like:
Willie Parker, Frank Gore, LenDale White, Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, etc. I'm just saying, I think he's undervalued according to this system. He's a solid RB2 imo, for dynasty purposes. I don't see why there's that much trepidation with him, and not say, Brian Westbrook (a PPR beast, who I also think is underrated). Jones started 39 of 48 games from 2004-2006, and that's with rookie issues too. That's pretty durable for a RB. Nobody likes to have a guy who had a lis franc, but I think he's better than where he's listed.
Just my .02
Even so, you take away weeks 1 & 2, he's ahead of guys like:
Willie Parker, Frank Gore, LenDale White, Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, etc. I'm just saying, I think he's undervalued according to this system. He's a solid RB2 imo, for dynasty purposes. I don't see why there's that much trepidation with him, and not say, Brian Westbrook (a PPR beast, who I also think is underrated). Jones started 39 of 48 games from 2004-2006, and that's with rookie issues too. That's pretty durable for a RB. Nobody likes to have a guy who had a lis franc, but I think he's better than where he's listed.
Just my .02
What do you mean by "he's ahead of guys like"...? In your league's scoring, in talent, in outlook? I'm not sure where you're going with this.
I don't think Jones is close to Parker in value, and I know he's nowhere close to Gore in value. And I have him ranked above White, Taylor, & Jones, so I'm not sure why he'd be undervalued compared to them.
Re: Westbrook vs. Jones. I see their difference as Westbrook almost always lines up and produces whereas Jones doesn't. He's missed more time than Westbrook since he's been in the league, and he often fails to produce when he's in the lineup.
I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Kevin Jones will keep suffering injuries. I'm saying that I see him as a player who is unreliable from week to week. I have very little faith in his ability to stay healthy and productive. If Westbrook is an injury risk, at least he's also supremely productive. If you see Jones differently, I understand. I'm just not going to rank a player highly if I don't believe in him.
Yoink! I made a moonlight requisition of SSOG's post in the Willie Parker thread because I didn't want to lose track of it. His wording on the yardage/TD relationship caught my attention. Well said, SSOG.
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
The TD thing is a fluke. TDs are so incredibly volatile from season to season (and even from game to game) that they're the hardest value to predict. Over a long enough timeline, the TDs always follow the yardage. If one guy is averaging 100 yards and 0 scores a game, and another guy is averaging 50 yards and 1 score a game, and both have similar usage patterns (i.e. one isn't a dedicated goal-line back), the 100 yard/0 score is the better long-term value. If nothing else, he's guaranteed to start breaking some long ones eventually.
Deuce McAllister is a good example that springs to mind. Here are his season-by-season numbers on yards per TD
109
270
145
151
126
Willie Parker is currently averaging 613 yards per TD, which is astronomical and can't be explained away by TD vulturing, because Pittsburgh's rushing TDs have been down across the board (no one on the roster has more than 3 rushing TDs). This figure is not supportable in the long term.
Deuce McAllister is a good example that springs to mind. Here are his season-by-season numbers on yards per TD
109
270
145
151
126
Willie Parker is currently averaging 613 yards per TD, which is astronomical and can't be explained away by TD vulturing, because Pittsburgh's rushing TDs have been down across the board (no one on the roster has more than 3 rushing TDs). This figure is not supportable in the long term.
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger. QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 4 2007, 06:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger.This is interesting because it makes you wonder about certain players. One that comes to mind is MJD. He looks like a guy that could be special, but his touches and production are limited due to his situation. To me he has long term prospects of having a job and getting touches, but the situation he is in could very well dictate how productive he will be.
I believe he has more talent than a guy like Ryan Grant, but to me it seems like Green Bay is excited about the prospects of Grant being their back of the future. I don't see another guy getting a crack at the job any time soon. Now, while it's possible MJD will have the better career, to me Grant seems to have a better opportunity to win your team a championship over the next couple years.
In the NFL talent always wins out, and odds are MJD will be in this league longer than Ryan Grant will, but as was previously pointed out, age isn't everything. I'd personally rather have 2-3 great years from a player than 5-6 average to above average years. It's the reason you didn't trade a guy like Vincent Jackson for Laveraneus Coles before this season. It's the reason at this point your list of players you'd accept for Dwayne Bowe or Sidney Rice is thin. I think you need to look at talent of the player first, but don't overlook the situation a guy is in.
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 4 2007, 10:24 AM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 4 2007, 06:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger.This is interesting because it makes you wonder about certain players. One that comes to mind is MJD. He looks like a guy that could be special, but his touches and production are limited due to his situation. To me he has long term prospects of having a job and getting touches, but the situation he is in could very well dictate how productive he will be.
I believe he has more talent than a guy like Ryan Grant, but to me it seems like Green Bay is excited about the prospects of Grant being their back of the future. I don't see another guy getting a crack at the job any time soon. Now, while it's possible MJD will have the better career, to me Grant seems to have a better opportunity to win your team a championship over the next couple years.
In the NFL talent always wins out, and odds are MJD will be in this league longer than Ryan Grant will, but as was previously pointed out, age isn't everything. I'd personally rather have 2-3 great years from a player than 5-6 average to above average years. It's the reason you didn't trade a guy like Vincent Jackson for Laveraneus Coles before this season. It's the reason at this point your list of players you'd accept for Dwayne Bowe or Sidney Rice is thin. I think you need to look at talent of the player first, but don't overlook the situation a guy is in.
That's an interesting take, LILB. Thanks. Here's where I differ:
MJD is far more talented than Ryan Grant. I agree that the Packers may be excited about Ryan Grant right now, but I also believe he's the very definition of the type of player EBF was describing above. He's going to have to hold off competition over the next few years to keep that job. MJD's role is only likely to increase.
With limited touches, MJD has 25 career touchdowns in 28 career games. An amazing stat. Throw in his 5.0+ YPC and 9.5 yards per reception, and you have a player with a much better possibility of 2-3 great years than Ryan Grant. According to profootballreference.com, MJD finished last year as the #8 ranked RB in fantasy football. He's at #11 this year. I think it only gets better from here.
Honestly, the only factors holding MJD back from being ranked above a guy like Reggie Bush are Fred Taylor and Jack Del Rio. While we wring our hands trying to figure out what's wrong with Reggie Bush, MJD has been everything Bush was supposed to be in the NFL. He reminds me of a physically tougher Brian Westbrook, and he could put up that kind of production with even more TDs if he was used in that fashion. It took Westbrook a few years to his stride. Who's to say MJD won't explode on the league with 2-3 dominant years starting next season or the season after? Not me.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 29 2007, 04:04 PM)
QUOTE (War Ensemble @ Nov 29 2007, 08:45 AM)
Earnest Graham in tier 4 is still a bit low, IMHO.
So you think he's more Rudi Johnson in '03 as opposed to Samkon Gado in '05?
Is here to stay for good or just a flash in the pan patching over the hole at RB for half a season?
He's probably somewhere in between. I think he'll stay involved in the offense somewhat next year, but I don't believe he has a window of a few years where he's going to be the unquestioned starter in Tampa Bay.
I think right now is the perfect time to sell high on Earnest Graham if you find someone who believes he's a stud for the next year or two. Either way, there's a more in-depth Earnest Graham breakdown on page 23, post #1127 & #1144 from just last week.
Sorry for the late reply.
Based on the comparison you make, I'd say he's closer to Rudi Johnson than Samkon Gado. I don't know what his contract status is like, but I think he'll continue to play a prominent role in the Bucs offense. The addition of Bennet has done next to nothing to his production (both in terms of NFL and fantasy), Pittman will be 33 by the start of next season and it remains to be seen how well Cadillac will rebound from his season ending injury.
I think Graham has made the best of this opportunity and has shown Gruden and the Bucs organization that he can be a starting runningback for them in this league.
QUOTE
2. Despite his reputation as an offensive genius who is great for his RB's value, Mike Martz' use of Jones is simply unacceptable from a dynasty value standpoint. Let's take a look at the last four weeks: four rushes for -4 yards, 11 rushes for 25 yards, 20 rushes for 93 yards, and three rushes for one yard. Thud. That's a recipe for sustained fantasy football failure right there. Martz had the same problem later in his St. Louis career too: he simply abandons the running game and gets pass happy, which leads to losing football games in addition to poor RB production. Keep in mind how he held down Steven Jackson's production while he was in St. Louis as well. It wasn't until after Martz left that Jackson was finally given a regular workload.
Jackson's workload suffered as much from his own injury problems as it did Martz holding him down. I remember him always having minor injuries in his rookie season that kept him from getting out of a RBBC with the end of Faulk's career. Also going off memory, it seems like Jackson had that huge game against the 49ers when he was finally given or able to handle the full-time job, and he got hurt. Just looking at the pfr game log, I see he didn't play the next 2 wks, so I think my memory is holding up somewhat. In 2005, Martz of course only coached a few games, so it's hard (though not impossible in this forum) to blame Jackson's workload on Martz's playcalling.
I'd be curious to see thoughts on the Titans RBs.
So far this year, White ranks 47th out of 51 RBs in DVOA at -19%. At the same time, though, Brown has +29% and Henry - in a small number of carries - has +6%. As a receiver, he ranks 48th out of 49 RBs at -30%. Brown - in a small number of receptions - has +30%.
I'm looking at those numbers and thinking the Titans shouldn't want White to be their RB1 next year. Tennessee's RB position is probably wide open right now, with White or Henry or RBBC or a FA like Turner all possibilities. Ranking White around 20 and Henry near the bottom only seems correct if essentially nothing changes for them in 2008, but I doubt nothing changes.
So far this year, White ranks 47th out of 51 RBs in DVOA at -19%. At the same time, though, Brown has +29% and Henry - in a small number of carries - has +6%. As a receiver, he ranks 48th out of 49 RBs at -30%. Brown - in a small number of receptions - has +30%.
I'm looking at those numbers and thinking the Titans shouldn't want White to be their RB1 next year. Tennessee's RB position is probably wide open right now, with White or Henry or RBBC or a FA like Turner all possibilities. Ranking White around 20 and Henry near the bottom only seems correct if essentially nothing changes for them in 2008, but I doubt nothing changes.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 09:27 AM)
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 4 2007, 10:24 AM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 4 2007, 06:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger.This is interesting because it makes you wonder about certain players. One that comes to mind is MJD. He looks like a guy that could be special, but his touches and production are limited due to his situation. To me he has long term prospects of having a job and getting touches, but the situation he is in could very well dictate how productive he will be.
I believe he has more talent than a guy like Ryan Grant, but to me it seems like Green Bay is excited about the prospects of Grant being their back of the future. I don't see another guy getting a crack at the job any time soon. Now, while it's possible MJD will have the better career, to me Grant seems to have a better opportunity to win your team a championship over the next couple years.
In the NFL talent always wins out, and odds are MJD will be in this league longer than Ryan Grant will, but as was previously pointed out, age isn't everything. I'd personally rather have 2-3 great years from a player than 5-6 average to above average years. It's the reason you didn't trade a guy like Vincent Jackson for Laveraneus Coles before this season. It's the reason at this point your list of players you'd accept for Dwayne Bowe or Sidney Rice is thin. I think you need to look at talent of the player first, but don't overlook the situation a guy is in.
That's an interesting take, LILB. Thanks. Here's where I differ:
MJD is far more talented than Ryan Grant. I agree that the Packers may be excited about Ryan Grant right now, but I also believe he's the very definition of the type of player EBF was describing above. He's going to have to hold off competition over the next few years to keep that job. MJD's role is only likely to increase.
With limited touches, MJD has 25 career touchdowns in 28 career games. An amazing stat. Throw in his 5.0+ YPC and 9.5 yards per reception, and you have a player with a much better possibility of 2-3 great years than Ryan Grant. According to profootballreference.com, MJD finished last year as the #8 ranked RB in fantasy football. He's at #11 this year. I think it only gets better from here.
Honestly, the only factors holding MJD back from being ranked above a guy like Reggie Bush are Fred Taylor and Jack Del Rio. While we wring our hands trying to figure out what's wrong with Reggie Bush, MJD has been everything Bush was supposed to be in the NFL. He reminds me of a physically tougher Brian Westbrook, and he could put up that kind of production with even more TDs if he was used in that fashion. It took Westbrook a few years to his stride. Who's to say MJD won't explode on the league with 2-3 dominant years starting next season or the season after? Not me.
I think the #19 RB ranking for Ryan Grant is right on target at this time.
I think he has a bit more upside than F&L expresses.
He's a strong runner who hits the holes hard and runs downhill.
I wish Maroney could run downhill.
.
QUOTE (J R @ Dec 4 2007, 03:19 PM)
I'd be curious to see thoughts on the Titans RBs.
So far this year, White ranks 47th out of 51 RBs in DVOA at -19%. At the same time, though, Brown has +29% and Henry - in a small number of carries - has +6%. As a receiver, he ranks 48th out of 49 RBs at -30%. Brown - in a small number of receptions - has +30%.
I'm looking at those numbers and thinking the Titans shouldn't want White to be their RB1 next year. Tennessee's RB position is probably wide open right now, with White or Henry or RBBC or a FA like Turner all possibilities. Ranking White around 20 and Henry near the bottom only seems correct if essentially nothing changes for them in 2008, but I doubt nothing changes.
So far this year, White ranks 47th out of 51 RBs in DVOA at -19%. At the same time, though, Brown has +29% and Henry - in a small number of carries - has +6%. As a receiver, he ranks 48th out of 49 RBs at -30%. Brown - in a small number of receptions - has +30%.
I'm looking at those numbers and thinking the Titans shouldn't want White to be their RB1 next year. Tennessee's RB position is probably wide open right now, with White or Henry or RBBC or a FA like Turner all possibilities. Ranking White around 20 and Henry near the bottom only seems correct if essentially nothing changes for them in 2008, but I doubt nothing changes.
I'm interested in thoughts on the TEN RB situation as well.
I happen to own Brown & Henry in dynasty. I'm hoping Henry gets a shot next year to be RB1, but I'm not so sure that will happen. I can vouch for the fact that most LenDale owners appear to be over valuing him based on his nice 3 or 4 game stretch a few weeks back. They seem to think he is a mortal lock to be the TEN RB1 for years to come. Maybe they are right, what do I know?
My gut tells me Brown moves on and could be a reasonable RBBC type back if he can finally get it into his head that he is too fragile to be a true RB1.
Ultimately I think whoever the TEN RB1 is, that is a guy I probably want. They seem to have a solid O-Line, good defense to keep them in games (when Haynesworth is around) and a slowly improving VY who appears to be doing a better job of passing the ball lately and is always a threat to run as well. That seems to be a good situation to be a RB1 in imo.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 12:27 PM)
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 4 2007, 10:24 AM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 4 2007, 06:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger.This is interesting because it makes you wonder about certain players. One that comes to mind is MJD. He looks like a guy that could be special, but his touches and production are limited due to his situation. To me he has long term prospects of having a job and getting touches, but the situation he is in could very well dictate how productive he will be.
I believe he has more talent than a guy like Ryan Grant, but to me it seems like Green Bay is excited about the prospects of Grant being their back of the future. I don't see another guy getting a crack at the job any time soon. Now, while it's possible MJD will have the better career, to me Grant seems to have a better opportunity to win your team a championship over the next couple years.
In the NFL talent always wins out, and odds are MJD will be in this league longer than Ryan Grant will, but as was previously pointed out, age isn't everything. I'd personally rather have 2-3 great years from a player than 5-6 average to above average years. It's the reason you didn't trade a guy like Vincent Jackson for Laveraneus Coles before this season. It's the reason at this point your list of players you'd accept for Dwayne Bowe or Sidney Rice is thin. I think you need to look at talent of the player first, but don't overlook the situation a guy is in.
That's an interesting take, LILB. Thanks. Here's where I differ:
MJD is far more talented than Ryan Grant. I agree that the Packers may be excited about Ryan Grant right now, but I also believe he's the very definition of the type of player EBF was describing above. He's going to have to hold off competition over the next few years to keep that job. MJD's role is only likely to increase.
With limited touches, MJD has 25 career touchdowns in 28 career games. An amazing stat. Throw in his 5.0+ YPC and 9.5 yards per reception, and you have a player with a much better possibility of 2-3 great years than Ryan Grant. According to profootballreference.com, MJD finished last year as the #8 ranked RB in fantasy football. He's at #11 this year. I think it only gets better from here.
Honestly, the only factors holding MJD back from being ranked above a guy like Reggie Bush are Fred Taylor and Jack Del Rio. While we wring our hands trying to figure out what's wrong with Reggie Bush, MJD has been everything Bush was supposed to be in the NFL. He reminds me of a physically tougher Brian Westbrook, and he could put up that kind of production with even more TDs if he was used in that fashion. It took Westbrook a few years to his stride. Who's to say MJD won't explode on the league with 2-3 dominant years starting next season or the season after? Not me.
F&L, I like reading your views about different players and it's obvious that you know what you're talking about. We're not that far off in thinking, but my main point was that despite the talent level, I really don't believe at this point Green Bay will want to bring someone in to challenge Grant, considering what he's done over the past 6 weeks. We both agree that MJD's talent is at a higher level, and his potential is sky high, but that could be limited by Jacksonville not giving him a shot to be the feature guy. That's not to say that I would trade MJD for Grant in a dynasty, just something else to consider.
How do you feel about Brandon Jackson? Do you think he will get a shot to challenge Grant?
I am a Titan's homer and live outside of Nashville. Here's my two cents on the Titans RB's.
Lendale is in a good spot because he doesn't fumble, he always gets 2 or 3 yards or more, and he eats the clock up.
In fact, Lendale really never gets caught in the backfield if you have watched the games. VY running definitely helps the RB to get that 3 yards no matter what though... Defenses have to respect Vince's ability to run so they can't play up the line as they might otherwise. So, on the one hand I would say that Lendale benefits from being slightly overweight and running downhill on a team that has Vince. But, there also the times when he makes a cut and gets to the next level. Usually at least once a game he gets into the secondary.
As a Titan's fan I do wonder what a faster shiftier back could do in our offense though. For example, the way that Addai runs, being able to careen off hits for 10 yards, if he had our O-line and defenses playing back a bit to guard against a Vince run, he could get 150 a game easy.
All that being said, I don't think that Chris Henry will overtake Lendale until an injury sometime next year. Fisher is so loyal to his guys. He won't take a workhorse like Lendale's job from him unless injury opens that door. I have Henry in a Dynasty league and I am holding for good until he gets his shot. I think that by next year, when he gets a chance to have 30 carries it will be a case of just not being able to move him back to backup.
Brown won't be here next year.
Lendale is in a good spot because he doesn't fumble, he always gets 2 or 3 yards or more, and he eats the clock up.
In fact, Lendale really never gets caught in the backfield if you have watched the games. VY running definitely helps the RB to get that 3 yards no matter what though... Defenses have to respect Vince's ability to run so they can't play up the line as they might otherwise. So, on the one hand I would say that Lendale benefits from being slightly overweight and running downhill on a team that has Vince. But, there also the times when he makes a cut and gets to the next level. Usually at least once a game he gets into the secondary.
As a Titan's fan I do wonder what a faster shiftier back could do in our offense though. For example, the way that Addai runs, being able to careen off hits for 10 yards, if he had our O-line and defenses playing back a bit to guard against a Vince run, he could get 150 a game easy.
All that being said, I don't think that Chris Henry will overtake Lendale until an injury sometime next year. Fisher is so loyal to his guys. He won't take a workhorse like Lendale's job from him unless injury opens that door. I have Henry in a Dynasty league and I am holding for good until he gets his shot. I think that by next year, when he gets a chance to have 30 carries it will be a case of just not being able to move him back to backup.
Brown won't be here next year.
QUOTE (J R @ Dec 4 2007, 04:08 PM)
QUOTE
2. Despite his reputation as an offensive genius who is great for his RB's value, Mike Martz' use of Jones is simply unacceptable from a dynasty value standpoint. Let's take a look at the last four weeks: four rushes for -4 yards, 11 rushes for 25 yards, 20 rushes for 93 yards, and three rushes for one yard. Thud. That's a recipe for sustained fantasy football failure right there. Martz had the same problem later in his St. Louis career too: he simply abandons the running game and gets pass happy, which leads to losing football games in addition to poor RB production. Keep in mind how he held down Steven Jackson's production while he was in St. Louis as well. It wasn't until after Martz left that Jackson was finally given a regular workload.
Jackson's workload suffered as much from his own injury problems as it did Martz holding him down. I remember him always having minor injuries in his rookie season that kept him from getting out of a RBBC with the end of Faulk's career. Also going off memory, it seems like Jackson had that huge game against the 49ers when he was finally given or able to handle the full-time job, and he got hurt. Just looking at the pfr game log, I see he didn't play the next 2 wks, so I think my memory is holding up somewhat. In 2005, Martz of course only coached a few games, so it's hard (though not impossible in this forum) to blame Jackson's workload on Martz's playcalling.
Interesting points. I had forgotten about the Joe Vitt interim era while Martz was out. I remembered talk of Martz constantly keeping Jackson's carries under 20 in 2005, but that was as much if not more on Joe Vitt. I checked an old issue of Football Prospectus, and it backed up your memory:
"His inconsistency is often blamed on a failure of the Rams under Mike Martz to commit to the run. However, he did not exactly fare better under Joe Vitt."
Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham definitely fit the mold of "good, but not great." I generally think it's best to err on the side of pessimissim when considering the dynasty value of guys like this. Look around the NFL right now and make a list of the active RBs who have been starters for at least two consecutive years. You get a group like this:
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
Hey F&L, great thread.
What do you think of the Denver RB dynasty values following the news of Henry's successful appeal?
What do you think of the Denver RB dynasty values following the news of Henry's successful appeal?
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Dec 4 2007, 10:02 PM)
I am a Titan's homer and live outside of Nashville. Here's my two cents on the Titans RB's.
Lendale is in a good spot because he doesn't fumble, he always gets 2 or 3 yards or more, and he eats the clock up.
In fact, Lendale really never gets caught in the backfield if you have watched the games. VY running definitely helps the RB to get that 3 yards no matter what though... Defenses have to respect Vince's ability to run so they can't play up the line as they might otherwise. So, on the one hand I would say that Lendale benefits from being slightly overweight and running downhill on a team that has Vince. But, there also the times when he makes a cut and gets to the next level. Usually at least once a game he gets into the secondary.
As a Titan's fan I do wonder what a faster shiftier back could do in our offense though. For example, the way that Addai runs, being able to careen off hits for 10 yards, if he had our O-line and defenses playing back a bit to guard against a Vince run, he could get 150 a game easy.
All that being said, I don't think that Chris Henry will overtake Lendale until an injury sometime next year. Fisher is so loyal to his guys. He won't take a workhorse like Lendale's job from him unless injury opens that door. I have Henry in a Dynasty league and I am holding for good until he gets his shot. I think that by next year, when he gets a chance to have 30 carries it will be a case of just not being able to move him back to backup.
Brown won't be here next year.
Lendale is in a good spot because he doesn't fumble, he always gets 2 or 3 yards or more, and he eats the clock up.
In fact, Lendale really never gets caught in the backfield if you have watched the games. VY running definitely helps the RB to get that 3 yards no matter what though... Defenses have to respect Vince's ability to run so they can't play up the line as they might otherwise. So, on the one hand I would say that Lendale benefits from being slightly overweight and running downhill on a team that has Vince. But, there also the times when he makes a cut and gets to the next level. Usually at least once a game he gets into the secondary.
As a Titan's fan I do wonder what a faster shiftier back could do in our offense though. For example, the way that Addai runs, being able to careen off hits for 10 yards, if he had our O-line and defenses playing back a bit to guard against a Vince run, he could get 150 a game easy.
All that being said, I don't think that Chris Henry will overtake Lendale until an injury sometime next year. Fisher is so loyal to his guys. He won't take a workhorse like Lendale's job from him unless injury opens that door. I have Henry in a Dynasty league and I am holding for good until he gets his shot. I think that by next year, when he gets a chance to have 30 carries it will be a case of just not being able to move him back to backup.
Brown won't be here next year.
I think Benm has a good read on this situation. We can quote DVOA for RBs all we want, but I'm not sure it accounts for a RB's ability to sustain a rushing attack in a conservative offense under a head coach averse to change.
My take on LenDale was that he was a great bet to build value going into this season. He did that. However, once he was seen as a reliable starting-caliber fantasy RB by Week 9, that's when he was extremely overvalued. He was a sell high the moment you could find somebody who wanted to count on him as anything more than depth.
I've watched him run several times this season, and he's not as talented as I originally thought he was. On the other hand, unlike more talented tweener backs like Jerious Norwood and Leon Washington who can't sustain a team's rushing attack, LenDale can. Sure, he needs his team to have the lead to have value, but he can move the chains as long as it's a close game or the Titans are ahead. It's just tough to count on that if he's anything more than a RB3 for you.
...and LenDale still rates extremely high on the knucklehead scale.
Re: Chris Brown. I agree with benm that he won't be back with the Titans. He'll probably end up in a timeshare somewhere, but last year's lack of interest in free agency should be a reminder that he's not a guy with much dynasty value.
Re: Chris Henry. I was impressed with his work in short doses, but that doesn't mean that he has what it takes to push LenDale aside to take over as the Titans starting RB. Can he handle the full load? I have no idea, but I'm inclined to disbelieve on this one until I see more of his game.
QUOTE (EBF @ Dec 4 2007, 11:58 PM)
Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham definitely fit the mold of "good, but not great." I generally think it's best to err on the side of pessimissim when considering the dynasty value of guys like this. Look around the NFL right now and make a list of the active RBs who have been starters for at least two consecutive years. You get a group like this:
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
Ronnie Brown
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Jamal Lewis
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Joseph Addai
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Kevin Jones
DeShaun Foster
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Shaun Alexander
That's a pretty sick collection of talent. It reads like a who's who of NFL RBs. Now ask yourself this: Do Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham belong in that company?
I don't know. Every season brings us a few mediocre players who perform admirably in spot duty. Last season we had Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, Ladell Betts, and Ron Dayne. Before that we had Reuben Droughns, Samkon Gado, Mike Anderson, and Mewelde Moore. These guys all stepped in at one point or another and put up some pretty respectable numbers. At times their numbers were downright good. But none of these players are starting in the NFL right now. Why?
Because competition is inevitable. Every year there are several elite RBs entering the player pool. Think about this upcoming offseason. Michael Turner, Chris Brown, Musa Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Julius Jones will be free agents. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas might also be available. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice will all be eligible to enter the NFL draft. So we're looking at mabye as many as 4-10 high quality backs entering the available pool of RB talent this offseason alone. This happens every year. It will be the same story next year with new free agents and new high profile rookies trying to win starting jobs.
So is it really any surprise that virtually all of the RBs who last multiple seasons as starters in the NFL are freakazoids? I don't think so. That's what the model predicts. The NFL is highly competitive. Only the strongest survive. Consider what someone like Kevin Jones has gone through in his brief tenure in Detroit. Since he arrived as a rookie the team has drafted Brian Calhoun, signed Tatum Bell, and signed TJ Duckett. So even a relatively average starter like KJ has had to beat out three first day draft picks who were total studs in college just to keep his starting job.
Now hopefully you're starting to see why I take a pessimistic approach with guys like Graham and Grant. It's great that they've been able to make some waves, but they have a long road ahead of them if they're going to keep their jobs and keep producing.
That said, success isn't out of the question. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker rose out of obscurity to become top 10 dynasty backs. Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are two other guys who managed to beat their odds. It's happened in the past and it will happen again. It's up to the owner to make an analysis on a case-by-case basis and decide whether a guy like Ryan Grant is closer to Reuben Droughns than Rudi Johnson. That's where it helps to have a good eye for talent because often times the statistics don't tell the whole story.
Awesome. I was just getting ready to tackle this same issue, but I wasn't going to frame it nearly as well as you just did.
Good call on Reuben Droughns. He's been one of the single most overrated dynasty RBs I can remember. Although I do recall berating quite a few people over their pie-in-the-sky Stacey Mack dreams as well.
With Ryan Grant, it's not that I believe the Packers will look to replace him. I agree that they're happy with what he's providing right now. He'll probably go into next season as the starter unless something odd happens the rest of the way this year or in the off-season. However, I was thinking more along the lines of EBF's examples, specifically Kevin Jones. The Lions have brought in all of those guys as competition/depth. Even if the Packers aren't looking to replace Grant, it only takes a 2-3 game window due to injury or ineffectiveness for a guy like Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, or next year's hot RB acquisition du jour to seize the opportunity and run with it just like Grant did.
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 4 2007, 08:33 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 12:27 PM)
QUOTE (LILB811 @ Dec 4 2007, 10:24 AM)
QUOTE (-OZ- @ Dec 4 2007, 06:16 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2007, 01:12 AM)
While I'm on my moonlight requisition hunt for perfectly worded pearls of fantasy football wisdom, below is a bit of aptness that I yoinked from an EBF post on Chester Taylor back in March. I have been fumbling around with various aspects of fantasy football value for years, but I've never come close to capturing the essence of dynasty value as well as EBF did here:
QUOTE
My philosophy regarding job security is very simple: it takes a very special player to secure a long-term hold on an NFL starting job. If a player is not very special, then he is always a major threat to be replaced. As such, marginal players or players who are merely "good" and not "great" cannot be relied on in dynasty leagues.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
Taylor is a below average to average NFL starter and is thus at constant risk of losing his job.
All too often, owners look at starters and their age and forget the rest. EBF is right, I don't care that Brodie Croyle is young, he isn't special, the Chiefs aren't relying on him, therefore he isn't a lock to start longer than Peyton Manning, although he is 7 years younger.This is interesting because it makes you wonder about certain players. One that comes to mind is MJD. He looks like a guy that could be special, but his touches and production are limited due to his situation. To me he has long term prospects of having a job and getting touches, but the situation he is in could very well dictate how productive he will be.
I believe he has more talent than a guy like Ryan Grant, but to me it seems like Green Bay is excited about the prospects of Grant being their back of the future. I don't see another guy getting a crack at the job any time soon. Now, while it's possible MJD will have the better career, to me Grant seems to have a better opportunity to win your team a championship over the next couple years.
In the NFL talent always wins out, and odds are MJD will be in this league longer than Ryan Grant will, but as was previously pointed out, age isn't everything. I'd personally rather have 2-3 great years from a player than 5-6 average to above average years. It's the reason you didn't trade a guy like Vincent Jackson for Laveraneus Coles before this season. It's the reason at this point your list of players you'd accept for Dwayne Bowe or Sidney Rice is thin. I think you need to look at talent of the player first, but don't overlook the situation a guy is in.
That's an interesting take, LILB. Thanks. Here's where I differ:
MJD is far more talented than Ryan Grant. I agree that the Packers may be excited about Ryan Grant right now, but I also believe he's the very definition of the type of player EBF was describing above. He's going to have to hold off competition over the next few years to keep that job. MJD's role is only likely to increase.
With limited touches, MJD has 25 career touchdowns in 28 career games. An amazing stat. Throw in his 5.0+ YPC and 9.5 yards per reception, and you have a player with a much better possibility of 2-3 great years than Ryan Grant. According to profootballreference.com, MJD finished last year as the #8 ranked RB in fantasy football. He's at #11 this year. I think it only gets better from here.
Honestly, the only factors holding MJD back from being ranked above a guy like Reggie Bush are Fred Taylor and Jack Del Rio. While we wring our hands trying to figure out what's wrong with Reggie Bush, MJD has been everything Bush was supposed to be in the NFL. He reminds me of a physically tougher Brian Westbrook, and he could put up that kind of production with even more TDs if he was used in that fashion. It took Westbrook a few years to his stride. Who's to say MJD won't explode on the league with 2-3 dominant years starting next season or the season after? Not me.
F&L, I like reading your views about different players and it's obvious that you know what you're talking about. We're not that far off in thinking, but my main point was that despite the talent level, I really don't believe at this point Green Bay will want to bring someone in to challenge Grant, considering what he's done over the past 6 weeks. We both agree that MJD's talent is at a higher level, and his potential is sky high, but that could be limited by Jacksonville not giving him a shot to be the feature guy. That's not to say that I would trade MJD for Grant in a dynasty, just something else to consider.
How do you feel about Brandon Jackson? Do you think he will get a shot to challenge Grant?
Packer homer here, and a Grant fan. I think the guy can flat out play. He runs tough, makes one cut, has good enough speed, and can block well enough to stay on the field. I don't think there is any resemblance to Samkon Gado here.
Having said that, Grants' game isn't a complete one, and he's not in the top 10 talents in the league at the position. He will face challenges to his role constantly over his career.
I think Brandon Jackson gets one more shot next year, but my money is on him being cut in late August of 08. I think Morency will go with him as well.
I fully expect the Packers to take a RB in the first 4 rounds to compete next year, and sign at least one FA. My guess would be Mewelde Moore. i.e. someone to give them a real threat on 3rd down. I could also see them bringing in someone like Fred Taylor, someone reliable to take some of the workload. The Packers will once again be one of the top teams with salary cap room, and while this projects to be a thin crop of Free Agents, the Packers can certainly fill any of the holes they wish.
Rest assured there would be little to no hesitation to take a RB in round one if Ted Thompson thought that was the best player available. Its a premium position where a top talent can make a huge difference for your team. (The Packers may be picking late in RD 1, but many RBs have slipped in past drafts and turned out to be top flight talents. Since 2000 drafted 19th-30th......S. Alexander, D. McAllister, L. Johnson, W. McGahee, K. Jones, J. Addai, L. Maroney). Do you really think Thompson would pass a talented back like Larry Johnson because he had Ryan Grant already on the roster?
QUOTE (bigmurd @ Dec 5 2007, 12:01 AM)
Hey F&L, great thread.
What do you think of the Denver RB dynasty values following the news of Henry's successful appeal?
What do you think of the Denver RB dynasty values following the news of Henry's successful appeal?
Thanks, bigmurd
Travis Henry has been less than impressive in his limited activity lately, so I'm not sure his grip on the job is as firm as it was early in the season. But I would assume he's going to continue to get every shot to be the primary starter this year and next unless he continues to struggle. As always, the Shanny caveat applies with Selvin Young, Andre Hall, Cecil Sapp, Mike Bell, etc. looming.
This thread is incredible. It is one of the few in which a very high percentage of the posts are relevant and helpful.
As for Ryan Grant, he looks to be a very solid fit for Green Bay, and he should be productive the rest of the way. However, as some have stated earlier, there is no way that he won't have serious competition for the job next year. There are at least 4-5 veterans just as talented that will be FA, and this is one of the best RB classes in quite some time. Green Bay's offense is explosive and elite, and its one weakness is the RB position. Beside RB, they really have very few pressing needs, so they can afford to spend another pick on a difference maker at that position. Jackson has been very mediocre this year, but he was picked in the 2nd round and will get some more chances. All of these facts point to one conclusion: Grant will have to fight very hard to keep that job next year.
As for Ryan Grant, he looks to be a very solid fit for Green Bay, and he should be productive the rest of the way. However, as some have stated earlier, there is no way that he won't have serious competition for the job next year. There are at least 4-5 veterans just as talented that will be FA, and this is one of the best RB classes in quite some time. Green Bay's offense is explosive and elite, and its one weakness is the RB position. Beside RB, they really have very few pressing needs, so they can afford to spend another pick on a difference maker at that position. Jackson has been very mediocre this year, but he was picked in the 2nd round and will get some more chances. All of these facts point to one conclusion: Grant will have to fight very hard to keep that job next year.
'ey F&L. Tell me about where you think Sidney Rice will be valued next year and how he'll finish next year?
He looks just sick-nasty out there; what's his real potential and what does he need to get there?
He looks just sick-nasty out there; what's his real potential and what does he need to get there?
QUOTE (Chunky Soup @ Dec 4 2007, 09:53 PM)
'ey F&L. Tell me about where you think Sidney Rice will be valued next year and how he'll finish next year?
He looks just sick-nasty out there; what's his real potential and what does he need to get there?
He looks just sick-nasty out there; what's his real potential and what does he need to get there?
Yo' F&L, you got mail.
I would like to get some perspective on another player. Any input is appreciated.
Luke McCown
I watched that game the other day thanks to Directv's Sunday Ticket. He looked great in that game...
The McCown kids can play decently... Luke looks better than his brother by a mile.
Will Garcia be there next year and beyond, how is his contract?
Does Luke merit watching in a deep dynasty league or was this a one game wonder thing?
If Garcia is going to be there for 2 or 3 years then its not an issue, since he is not losing his job.
Just not sure what the situation is there.
Luke McCown
I watched that game the other day thanks to Directv's Sunday Ticket. He looked great in that game...
The McCown kids can play decently... Luke looks better than his brother by a mile.
Will Garcia be there next year and beyond, how is his contract?
Does Luke merit watching in a deep dynasty league or was this a one game wonder thing?
If Garcia is going to be there for 2 or 3 years then its not an issue, since he is not losing his job.
Just not sure what the situation is there.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Dec 5 2007, 09:35 AM)
I would like to get some perspective on another player. Any input is appreciated.
Luke McCown
I watched that game the other day thanks to Directv's Sunday Ticket. He looked great in that game...
The McCown kids can play decently... Luke looks better than his brother by a mile.
Will Garcia be there next year and beyond, how is his contract?
Does Luke merit watching in a deep dynasty league or was this a one game wonder thing?
If Garcia is going to be there for 2 or 3 years then its not an issue, since he is not losing his job.
Just not sure what the situation is there.
Luke McCown
I watched that game the other day thanks to Directv's Sunday Ticket. He looked great in that game...
The McCown kids can play decently... Luke looks better than his brother by a mile.
Will Garcia be there next year and beyond, how is his contract?
Does Luke merit watching in a deep dynasty league or was this a one game wonder thing?
If Garcia is going to be there for 2 or 3 years then its not an issue, since he is not losing his job.
Just not sure what the situation is there.
The knock on the McCowns has always been "big arm, small head". I really question his long-term dynasty potential. He's bounced around forever and has yet to make the barest of splashes. He hadn't thrown a pass in 3 years prior to Garcia getting hurt. It's a credit to him that he continues to make the league, but I don't think he's even in the same group as someone like Frerotte, a journeyman who you feel really comfortable with as your backup.
Rich Gannon has demonstrated that really anything is possible. Journeymen can become league MVPs if they're in the right system. Problem is, Gannon showed us SOMETHING at some point during his career- he put up acceptable numbers in both Minn and Kansas (although his ypa was very, very pedestrian) before blowing up in Oakland. If I were to gamble on a career backup who might earn a starting job and become a fantasy force, I wouldn't look at either McCown- I'd focus on Frerotte or Rattay (who is an unquestioned talent who could be a star in this league, in my opinion, if he could just stay healthy).
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