MIDWEEK RE-EVALUATIONS
QUARTERBACKS
Drop Seneca Wallace from #34 to #38 - recent revelation that he signed a contract before this season delaying his free agency for another year.
Upgrade Trent Green from #31 to #28 - healthy enough to start, moves Damon Huard to the bench
Bump Jason Campbell up from #34 to #32 - confirmation that he will start going forward.
Drop Mark Brunell from #39 to #46 - the end is nigh
Bump Aaron Brooks from #37 to #34 - looks like the starter again.
Drop Jake Delhomme from #13 to #16 - Production too mediocre to rely on, prefer the upside of younger QBs.
Drop Alex Smith from #14 to #17 - Romo & Grossman are in better situations, playoff value is a factor
Bump Tony Romo from #16 to #14 - Still impressing, looks more & more like the future
Bump Rex Grossman from #17 to #15 - Bears still team to beat, Grossman brushes off Dolphins game, Lovie firmly behind him.
Drop Jon Kitna from from #20 to #24 - Putting up good fantasy numbers, but still the same old Kitna. Questionable value from here forward.
RUNNINGBACKS
Drop Clinton Portis from #6 to #7 - already dropped from #4 early in the week, drops another spot with news that he's out for the year. 'Skins offense in state of flux with Campbell. May continue to drop if Parker & Westbrook continue to shine.
Bump Deuce McAllister from #21 to #18 - not crazy about him, but Saints now a great offense and Deuce is getting redzone work
Drop Ahman Green from #20 to #22 - Morency back, Herron was already taking more & more of the backfield receptions
Small bump for Kevan Barlow from #52 to #49 - not dead yet, still managing to put up weekly points
Enter Brad Hoover at #75 - shot in the dark for goal-line carries if the Panthers make the playoffs
WIDE RECEIVERS
Bump Marques Colston from #14 to #12 - defying all prognostication, continues to dominate. May slow down, but I've been saying that for weeks. Right now the #1 WR in fantasy production.
Bump Joey Galloway from #34 to #31 - Yes, he's very inconsistent, but he's still more productive than the crapshoot young WRs in the 30s. Still very startable as a WR3, still has the speed game.
Bump Jerricho Cotchery from #39 to #33 - Producing much better and more consistently than expected.
Bump Santonio Holmes from #44 to #40 - Coming on the last few weeks
Drop Doug Gabriel from #34 to #46 - had him too high, starting to lose time to Chad Jackson & Gaffney, Caldwell playing better
TIGHT ENDS
Bump Kellen Winslow II from #4 to #2 - Top scoring TE in fantasy, consistently targeted, producing even in poor offense
Bump Bo Scaife from #22 to #20 - Consistently outplaying Ben Troupe, rapport with old Texas QB Young
Bump Kris Wilson from #31 to #28 - Working his way into the offense, Gonzo's injury is a chance to show his talent.
Courtney Anderson drops out - Wasn't all that good in the first place, loses starting position
KICKERS
Bump Nate Kaeding up one spot to #3 - Chargers offense is a juggernaut, Kaeding scoring 7-12 every week.
Drop Jay Feely from #8 to #12 - Giants hurting from injuries
Bump John Carney up from #12 to #10 - Saints continuing to blow up the scoreboard
Drop Morten Andersen - Falcons outside looking in for playoffs, Andersen drafted before Kaeding was born.
DEFENSES
Flip-flopped Seahawks to #7 & Giants to #14 - Seattle continuing to pressure the QB, virtual playoff lock. Giants defense plagued by injuries.
QUARTERBACKS
Drop Seneca Wallace from #34 to #38 - recent revelation that he signed a contract before this season delaying his free agency for another year.
Upgrade Trent Green from #31 to #28 - healthy enough to start, moves Damon Huard to the bench
Bump Jason Campbell up from #34 to #32 - confirmation that he will start going forward.
Drop Mark Brunell from #39 to #46 - the end is nigh
Bump Aaron Brooks from #37 to #34 - looks like the starter again.
Drop Jake Delhomme from #13 to #16 - Production too mediocre to rely on, prefer the upside of younger QBs.
Drop Alex Smith from #14 to #17 - Romo & Grossman are in better situations, playoff value is a factor
Bump Tony Romo from #16 to #14 - Still impressing, looks more & more like the future
Bump Rex Grossman from #17 to #15 - Bears still team to beat, Grossman brushes off Dolphins game, Lovie firmly behind him.
Drop Jon Kitna from from #20 to #24 - Putting up good fantasy numbers, but still the same old Kitna. Questionable value from here forward.
RUNNINGBACKS
Drop Clinton Portis from #6 to #7 - already dropped from #4 early in the week, drops another spot with news that he's out for the year. 'Skins offense in state of flux with Campbell. May continue to drop if Parker & Westbrook continue to shine.
Bump Deuce McAllister from #21 to #18 - not crazy about him, but Saints now a great offense and Deuce is getting redzone work
Drop Ahman Green from #20 to #22 - Morency back, Herron was already taking more & more of the backfield receptions
Small bump for Kevan Barlow from #52 to #49 - not dead yet, still managing to put up weekly points
Enter Brad Hoover at #75 - shot in the dark for goal-line carries if the Panthers make the playoffs
WIDE RECEIVERS
Bump Marques Colston from #14 to #12 - defying all prognostication, continues to dominate. May slow down, but I've been saying that for weeks. Right now the #1 WR in fantasy production.
Bump Joey Galloway from #34 to #31 - Yes, he's very inconsistent, but he's still more productive than the crapshoot young WRs in the 30s. Still very startable as a WR3, still has the speed game.
Bump Jerricho Cotchery from #39 to #33 - Producing much better and more consistently than expected.
Bump Santonio Holmes from #44 to #40 - Coming on the last few weeks
Drop Doug Gabriel from #34 to #46 - had him too high, starting to lose time to Chad Jackson & Gaffney, Caldwell playing better
TIGHT ENDS
Bump Kellen Winslow II from #4 to #2 - Top scoring TE in fantasy, consistently targeted, producing even in poor offense
Bump Bo Scaife from #22 to #20 - Consistently outplaying Ben Troupe, rapport with old Texas QB Young
Bump Kris Wilson from #31 to #28 - Working his way into the offense, Gonzo's injury is a chance to show his talent.
Courtney Anderson drops out - Wasn't all that good in the first place, loses starting position
KICKERS
Bump Nate Kaeding up one spot to #3 - Chargers offense is a juggernaut, Kaeding scoring 7-12 every week.
Drop Jay Feely from #8 to #12 - Giants hurting from injuries
Bump John Carney up from #12 to #10 - Saints continuing to blow up the scoreboard
Drop Morten Andersen - Falcons outside looking in for playoffs, Andersen drafted before Kaeding was born.
DEFENSES
Flip-flopped Seahawks to #7 & Giants to #14 - Seattle continuing to pressure the QB, virtual playoff lock. Giants defense plagued by injuries.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 14 2006, 06:58 AM) 
QUOTE (THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA @ Nov 14 2006, 12:15 AM)
Fear and Loathing:
I love the rankings....plus there Free and have a good explanation behind them.
I got a question for ya: IF, you was making a top 25 OVERALL list who would be on that as far as dynasty rank overall?
Thanks.
Top 25 Overall...hmmm. I'm not a big fan of the "overall" method of ranking, but here goes:
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD RB1
2 Larry Johnson KC RB2
3 Steven Jackson STL RB3
4 Peyton Manning IND QB1
5 Clinton Portis WAS RB4
6 Ronnie Brown MIA RB5
7 Kevin Jones DET RB6
8 *Shaun Alexander SEA RB7
9 Donovan McNabb PHI QB2
10 Steve Smith CAR WR1
11 Brian Westbrook PHI RB8
12 Willie Parker PIT RB9
13 Torry Holt STL WR2
14 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR3
15 Laurence Maroney NE RB10
16 Reggie Bush NO RB11
17 Carson Palmer CIN QB3
18 Chad Johnson CIN WR4
19 Rudi Johnson CIN RB12
20 Frank Gore SF RB13
21 Joseph Addai IND RB14
22 Andre Johnson HOU WR5
23 Tom Brady NE QB4
24 Anquan Boldin ARI WR6
25 Marvin Harrison IND WR7
Next Tier: Vick, Brees, Roy Williams, R. Wayne, H. Ward
Thanks dude!!!
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 16 2006, 05:39 AM)
MIDWEEK RE-EVALUATIONS
QUARTERBACKS
Drop Mark Brunell from #39 to #46 - the end is nigh
QUARTERBACKS
Drop Mark Brunell from #39 to #46 - the end is nigh
I'd dump Brunell completely, he's done in the NFL. Or he should be. Maybe he'll hang around liek Testaverde did.
QUOTE
TIGHT ENDS
Bump Bo Scaife from #22 to #20 - Consistently outplaying Ben Troupe, rapport with old Texas QB Young
Courtney Anderson drops out - Wasn't all that good in the first place, loses starting position
Bump Bo Scaife from #22 to #20 - Consistently outplaying Ben Troupe, rapport with old Texas QB Young
Courtney Anderson drops out - Wasn't all that good in the first place, loses starting position
Nice bit of info here on Scaife. I think the new Oak TE might show some promise.
at the Morten comment. If you see bunch of older guys, strectching their legs and kicking cans followin' you, be afraid - it's the Geriatric Kicking Specialists coming to make you pay. I think they have an ally in Chuck Norris, and if they call that in, you're done. great stuff.
in case it hasn't been said, thanks for only moderately bumping players up and down in your rankings.
in case it hasn't been said, thanks for only moderately bumping players up and down in your rankings.
FREE ASSOCIATION: #22 Ahman Green vs. #23 DeAngelo Williams
How league rules and specific team situations determine player values.
Ahman Green is my RB2 with Jamal Lewis as my RB3 in a playoff league. If the season ended right now, I would be the #3 of 6 seeds in the playoffs. Although I do have to start taking potential playoff players into account, there are seven more weeks left in the regular season and I’m far from a lock.
I have a strong gut feeling not only that the Panthers will make the playoffs, but also that DeAngelo Williams will be worked into the offense more and more. I want to make a play for him after coming off a relatively disappointing showing on national TV Monday night. Time is of the essence, since he could have a Todd Rungren game (“Hello It’s You") any week now.
Not to be forgotten with a timely DeAngelo Williams trade offer is the "genius" factor inherent in fantasy sports. True story: when he was still up and coming in AA Chattanooga, I picked up Adam Dunn early one season in my less than cut-throat rotisserie league. The commissioner, as witty commissioners are wont to do, called me out in it. "You just want to look a genius, don't you". Well, yeah. That's the engine that drives the whole fantasy machine. It's an art form. You think gamblers buck the odds just for the money grab? Subtract "ego" and fantasy football would just be dungeons and dragons to you and me...
...Which brings me to my pet project coming into this season d/b/a Ahman Green. First on the list of sleepers to acquire on the cheap, he’s basically been the player I expected: riskier than most RBs, but certain starting lineup material when healthy. He’s coming off three 100 yard games in the last four weeks, but Morency and Herron are making it easier to rest him a series here and there and on passing downs. Also factoring into the equation is the recent news that contract talks have begun that would keep him in Green Bay beyond this season. How do I feel about his production beyond ‘06?
There’s the rub: I need Ahman Green to be my #2 RB if I want to stay in the playoff race this season. The prospect of a trade for a hopeful playoff player and future starting RB is a luxury I can’t afford considering the weekly dropoff in production from Ahman to Jamal Lewis. As of week 10, I can not deal Ahman Green straight up for DeAngelo Williams. If I reel off two straight wins and give myself some breathing room, my priorities could very well change by week 12.
Bottom line: gather all the information you can, build a knowledge base, then rely on your gut feeling. My gut feeling led me to Ahman this year, but it’s also telling me it would be foolish to count on a repeat performance from the 30 year old Ahman Green next season. If I was in the driver’s seat for the playoffs, I’d dial up the DeAngelo Williams owner and try to work something out. Instead, Plan B will make its entrance down the road. If it makes more sense, I’ll hold on to Ahman until the end of the season and try to flip his ’06 production for Corey Dillon -- a much more reliable playoff chip than DeAngelo Williams with an even cloudier future than Ahman Green.
Ahman Green is more valuable than DeAngelo Williams…for now.
How league rules and specific team situations determine player values.
Ahman Green is my RB2 with Jamal Lewis as my RB3 in a playoff league. If the season ended right now, I would be the #3 of 6 seeds in the playoffs. Although I do have to start taking potential playoff players into account, there are seven more weeks left in the regular season and I’m far from a lock.
I have a strong gut feeling not only that the Panthers will make the playoffs, but also that DeAngelo Williams will be worked into the offense more and more. I want to make a play for him after coming off a relatively disappointing showing on national TV Monday night. Time is of the essence, since he could have a Todd Rungren game (“Hello It’s You") any week now.
Not to be forgotten with a timely DeAngelo Williams trade offer is the "genius" factor inherent in fantasy sports. True story: when he was still up and coming in AA Chattanooga, I picked up Adam Dunn early one season in my less than cut-throat rotisserie league. The commissioner, as witty commissioners are wont to do, called me out in it. "You just want to look a genius, don't you". Well, yeah. That's the engine that drives the whole fantasy machine. It's an art form. You think gamblers buck the odds just for the money grab? Subtract "ego" and fantasy football would just be dungeons and dragons to you and me...
...Which brings me to my pet project coming into this season d/b/a Ahman Green. First on the list of sleepers to acquire on the cheap, he’s basically been the player I expected: riskier than most RBs, but certain starting lineup material when healthy. He’s coming off three 100 yard games in the last four weeks, but Morency and Herron are making it easier to rest him a series here and there and on passing downs. Also factoring into the equation is the recent news that contract talks have begun that would keep him in Green Bay beyond this season. How do I feel about his production beyond ‘06?
There’s the rub: I need Ahman Green to be my #2 RB if I want to stay in the playoff race this season. The prospect of a trade for a hopeful playoff player and future starting RB is a luxury I can’t afford considering the weekly dropoff in production from Ahman to Jamal Lewis. As of week 10, I can not deal Ahman Green straight up for DeAngelo Williams. If I reel off two straight wins and give myself some breathing room, my priorities could very well change by week 12.
Bottom line: gather all the information you can, build a knowledge base, then rely on your gut feeling. My gut feeling led me to Ahman this year, but it’s also telling me it would be foolish to count on a repeat performance from the 30 year old Ahman Green next season. If I was in the driver’s seat for the playoffs, I’d dial up the DeAngelo Williams owner and try to work something out. Instead, Plan B will make its entrance down the road. If it makes more sense, I’ll hold on to Ahman until the end of the season and try to flip his ’06 production for Corey Dillon -- a much more reliable playoff chip than DeAngelo Williams with an even cloudier future than Ahman Green.
Ahman Green is more valuable than DeAngelo Williams…for now.
I agree with your assesment of Ahman Green who has made a remarkable recovery.
Ahman Green is still in a 3 year window of productivity. I would not want to count on him in 2009 when he will be 32 years old but he looks to be a very good Rb 2 short term and for possibly/probobly the next 2 years as well. As I expect them to resign him and the Slack are doing well enough to keep Favre interested in trying for one more next year as well I think. He does carry some injury risk.
What really amazes me is how quickly thier rookie offensive linemen have come togther.
I went into the year considering Green as a Rb 4 for me but when he has played he has performed a little better than Chester Taylor making him my rb 2.
I also offered him to the DeAngelo Williams owner on 2 seperate occasions this year. If the Williams owner would have taken it he would possibly be vying for a playoff spot right now but he is thinking long term.
I ended up trading Green for Cedric Benson to help another owners playoff push. I prefer Williams but like Bensons long term prospects as well.
Rb depth for younger Rb depth without too much impact on my starting lineup although Green is certainly more useful than Benson is right now.
Because of a trade I made, I'm looking at your rankings for an idea of who to pick up. Great work in here. Well worth reading.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 12 2006, 05:10 AM)
DYNASTY TARGETS FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON:
2. [u]DeAngelo Williams – The Panthers are too talent-laden to miss the playoffs in a weak NFC, and John Fox is too good of a coach to let a poor running game stand in the way. Despite DeShaun Foster’s status as the current starting RB, the truth is he’s more stop-gap veteran than potential difference maker. Foster just isn’t good enough to sustain the Panthers running game, and John Fox knows this. It’s why he stayed too long with a clearly washed up Stephen Davis, dropped a valuable 2nd round pick on Eric Shelton only to turn around a year later and make RB a top priority again with the 1st round selection of DeAngelo Williams. Does this sound like a man who has faith in DeShaun Foster? DeAngelo Williams is a stronger runner, a more explosive back and a better football player. If the Panthers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they’re going to have to do it behind a stronger running game featuring DeAngelo Williams. Once he gets more reps under his belt and a feel for the pace of the NFL, he’s going to bust out.
3. Lee Evans – In his rookie year, with a poor QB, Evans was the Bills’ best deep threat. It gets better. He was also their best possession WR, first down maker and redzone weapon. Last season, playing in an offense sunk by the alternating QB vortex of Holcomb & Losman, Evans managed to put up seven TDs…and that was with Holcomb’s eyes locked onto Eric Moulds the whole game. Evans is putting up similar numbers this year, even in another season of the QB holding the offense hostage. What has owners sleeping on Evans early this season is nothing more than a minor touchdown slump, something that will fix itself in the 2nd half. Evans is the kind of talent you can get excited about keeping on your roster even if he doesn’t see your starting lineup on a regular basis. With his playmaking ability, a bump even to mediocrity at QB could turn him into a borderline top 10 WR.
2. [u]DeAngelo Williams – The Panthers are too talent-laden to miss the playoffs in a weak NFC, and John Fox is too good of a coach to let a poor running game stand in the way. Despite DeShaun Foster’s status as the current starting RB, the truth is he’s more stop-gap veteran than potential difference maker. Foster just isn’t good enough to sustain the Panthers running game, and John Fox knows this. It’s why he stayed too long with a clearly washed up Stephen Davis, dropped a valuable 2nd round pick on Eric Shelton only to turn around a year later and make RB a top priority again with the 1st round selection of DeAngelo Williams. Does this sound like a man who has faith in DeShaun Foster? DeAngelo Williams is a stronger runner, a more explosive back and a better football player. If the Panthers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they’re going to have to do it behind a stronger running game featuring DeAngelo Williams. Once he gets more reps under his belt and a feel for the pace of the NFL, he’s going to bust out.
3. Lee Evans – In his rookie year, with a poor QB, Evans was the Bills’ best deep threat. It gets better. He was also their best possession WR, first down maker and redzone weapon. Last season, playing in an offense sunk by the alternating QB vortex of Holcomb & Losman, Evans managed to put up seven TDs…and that was with Holcomb’s eyes locked onto Eric Moulds the whole game. Evans is putting up similar numbers this year, even in another season of the QB holding the offense hostage. What has owners sleeping on Evans early this season is nothing more than a minor touchdown slump, something that will fix itself in the 2nd half. Evans is the kind of talent you can get excited about keeping on your roster even if he doesn’t see your starting lineup on a regular basis. With his playmaking ability, a bump even to mediocrity at QB could turn him into a borderline top 10 WR.
Toot Toot!
WEEK 11 MOVERS
QUARTERBACKS
1 Dropped Donovan McNabb from #2 to #7 -- Recovery of 8-12 mos. Positive: Palmer appears almost 100% back. Negative: Running QBs, i.e. Culpepper, have struggled in return from knee injuries
Overall, I'm pretty satisfied with the QB rankings. I'm not going to do much rearranging this week.
RUNNINGBACKS
1 Bumped Willie Parker from #8 to #6 -- Continues to find the end zone, moves ahead of injured backs Portis & Kevin Jones
2 Dropped Kevin Jones from #6 to #9 -- High ankle sprains can quickly turn into season killers. Waiting to see how long he'll be out, but he likely will be off his game for at least a month.
3 Dropped Brian Westbrook from #8 to #10 -- Rotoworld claims the McNabb injury actually helps Westbrook b/c they'll be running more and looking to dump off. They're overlooking the likely offensive woes and resultant touchdown dropoff
4 Bumped Frank Gore from #13 to #7 -- It's a major bump, but I've been looking for an excuse to move him up for weeks. Truly explosive runner continues to show power, toughness & receiving ability
5 Bumped DeAngelo Williams from #23 to #20 -- "Hello It's You". See post # 105 or #108
6 Dropped Lamont Jordan from #29 to #34 -- Freefall continues with torn MCL putting him out of his misery for the rest of the season. Raiders organization still in dire straits; Jordan needs a new regime in town to regain value.
7 Bumped Marion Barber from #34 to #29 -- Parcells favorite continues to carve out a valuable role in the offense, scoring enough to help most weeks
8 Upgraded Travis Henry from #40 to #37 -- Still producing, making a restructured deal more likely in the off-season. How long can he hold off LenDale White? Looking better now than it did 6 weeks ago.
9 Dropped DeShaun Foster from #38 to #40 -- Believing that his window was closing, I had already dropped him further than most. He falls again slightly due to injury & Williams' emergence
10 Upgraded Justin Fargas from #64 to #49 -- Here's your chance, kid. Try to string a few healthy games together.
11 Upgraded Samkon Gado from #63 to #51 -- Not likely to take over as the RB of the future, but he could get a chance to try for a repeat of last December
12 Bumped Damien Nash from #72 to #65 -- Looked impressive; unfortunately for him, Tatum due back for Thanksgiving game.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1 Dropped Marques Colston back to #14 -- How serious is his injury? For now, I'd rather have Javon Walker or Darrell Jackson
2 Bumped Lee Evans from #20 to #15 -- Well, you can't say he didn't earn it after the best 1st quarter in football history. I still say he's a top 10 talent at WR if they could only import an offense.
3 Dropped Randy Moss from #15 to #20 -- I remember when I thought Randy Moss had a significant chance to become at least the 2nd best WR in history. He's fallen a long way after not even recording a catch yesterday.
4 Dropped Dante Stallworth from #24 to #30 -- McNabb's strengths matched up very well with Stallworth's speed game. Garcia can't go vertical, Stallworth in a world of hurt. What does his future in Philly look like?
5 Upgraded Santonio Holmes #40 to #33 -- Coming on stronger and stronger every week
6 Dropped Bernard Berrian from #35 to #38 -- Bernard Berrian has a Mark Bradley problem
7 Bumped Mark Bradley from #54 to #39 -- Two very impressive games in a row for the suddenly healthy Bradley. Offseason quote from Lovie: not worried about #2 WR because "Mark Bradley is a star in the making."
8 Major bump Reche Caldwell #64 to #42 -- About 3 weeks late, but I was having hard time mustering up the required faith. If the Patriots have a #1 WR, it's Caldwell
9 Another drop for Doug Gabriel #46 to #57 -- This is what persona non grata looks like in Belichick's world
10 Bumped Arnaz Battle from #58 to #53 -- Poor man's Hines Ward takes advantage of Antonio Bryant's heavy coverage (yeah, I can't believe it either) and almost scores twice
11 Dropped Rod Smith from #59 to #69 -- In the same sinking boat with Brunell, Bledsoe, Brad Johnson & Kerry Collins: the end is nigh
12 Upgraded Devery Henderson from #67 to #55 -- If he gets the opportunity, he produces. It seems that anyone who sees the field in Brees' offense is going to produce
13 Demetrius Williams enters at #65 -- Promising rookie taking on more each week
TIGHT ENDS
1 Bumped Ben Watson from #7 to #5 -- Risky bump, but consider the following: he's been very heavily targeted, Vernon Davis level physical talent & Wonderlic Wonder, advantage of HOF QB & coach, likely division winner and perennial contender. When ultra talented RBs don't come through for us on our timetable, we still hold them in high esteem. When ultra talented TEs take longer than expected to announce their presence, our expectations fall much further than their talent level warrants.
QUARTERBACKS
1 Dropped Donovan McNabb from #2 to #7 -- Recovery of 8-12 mos. Positive: Palmer appears almost 100% back. Negative: Running QBs, i.e. Culpepper, have struggled in return from knee injuries
Overall, I'm pretty satisfied with the QB rankings. I'm not going to do much rearranging this week.
RUNNINGBACKS
1 Bumped Willie Parker from #8 to #6 -- Continues to find the end zone, moves ahead of injured backs Portis & Kevin Jones
2 Dropped Kevin Jones from #6 to #9 -- High ankle sprains can quickly turn into season killers. Waiting to see how long he'll be out, but he likely will be off his game for at least a month.
3 Dropped Brian Westbrook from #8 to #10 -- Rotoworld claims the McNabb injury actually helps Westbrook b/c they'll be running more and looking to dump off. They're overlooking the likely offensive woes and resultant touchdown dropoff
4 Bumped Frank Gore from #13 to #7 -- It's a major bump, but I've been looking for an excuse to move him up for weeks. Truly explosive runner continues to show power, toughness & receiving ability
5 Bumped DeAngelo Williams from #23 to #20 -- "Hello It's You". See post # 105 or #108
6 Dropped Lamont Jordan from #29 to #34 -- Freefall continues with torn MCL putting him out of his misery for the rest of the season. Raiders organization still in dire straits; Jordan needs a new regime in town to regain value.
7 Bumped Marion Barber from #34 to #29 -- Parcells favorite continues to carve out a valuable role in the offense, scoring enough to help most weeks
8 Upgraded Travis Henry from #40 to #37 -- Still producing, making a restructured deal more likely in the off-season. How long can he hold off LenDale White? Looking better now than it did 6 weeks ago.
9 Dropped DeShaun Foster from #38 to #40 -- Believing that his window was closing, I had already dropped him further than most. He falls again slightly due to injury & Williams' emergence
10 Upgraded Justin Fargas from #64 to #49 -- Here's your chance, kid. Try to string a few healthy games together.
11 Upgraded Samkon Gado from #63 to #51 -- Not likely to take over as the RB of the future, but he could get a chance to try for a repeat of last December
12 Bumped Damien Nash from #72 to #65 -- Looked impressive; unfortunately for him, Tatum due back for Thanksgiving game.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1 Dropped Marques Colston back to #14 -- How serious is his injury? For now, I'd rather have Javon Walker or Darrell Jackson
2 Bumped Lee Evans from #20 to #15 -- Well, you can't say he didn't earn it after the best 1st quarter in football history. I still say he's a top 10 talent at WR if they could only import an offense.
3 Dropped Randy Moss from #15 to #20 -- I remember when I thought Randy Moss had a significant chance to become at least the 2nd best WR in history. He's fallen a long way after not even recording a catch yesterday.
4 Dropped Dante Stallworth from #24 to #30 -- McNabb's strengths matched up very well with Stallworth's speed game. Garcia can't go vertical, Stallworth in a world of hurt. What does his future in Philly look like?
5 Upgraded Santonio Holmes #40 to #33 -- Coming on stronger and stronger every week
6 Dropped Bernard Berrian from #35 to #38 -- Bernard Berrian has a Mark Bradley problem
7 Bumped Mark Bradley from #54 to #39 -- Two very impressive games in a row for the suddenly healthy Bradley. Offseason quote from Lovie: not worried about #2 WR because "Mark Bradley is a star in the making."
8 Major bump Reche Caldwell #64 to #42 -- About 3 weeks late, but I was having hard time mustering up the required faith. If the Patriots have a #1 WR, it's Caldwell
9 Another drop for Doug Gabriel #46 to #57 -- This is what persona non grata looks like in Belichick's world
10 Bumped Arnaz Battle from #58 to #53 -- Poor man's Hines Ward takes advantage of Antonio Bryant's heavy coverage (yeah, I can't believe it either) and almost scores twice
11 Dropped Rod Smith from #59 to #69 -- In the same sinking boat with Brunell, Bledsoe, Brad Johnson & Kerry Collins: the end is nigh
12 Upgraded Devery Henderson from #67 to #55 -- If he gets the opportunity, he produces. It seems that anyone who sees the field in Brees' offense is going to produce
13 Demetrius Williams enters at #65 -- Promising rookie taking on more each week
TIGHT ENDS
1 Bumped Ben Watson from #7 to #5 -- Risky bump, but consider the following: he's been very heavily targeted, Vernon Davis level physical talent & Wonderlic Wonder, advantage of HOF QB & coach, likely division winner and perennial contender. When ultra talented RBs don't come through for us on our timetable, we still hold them in high esteem. When ultra talented TEs take longer than expected to announce their presence, our expectations fall much further than their talent level warrants.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 20 2006, 07:16 AM)
[11 Dropped Rod Smith from #59 to #69 -- In the same sinking boat with Brunell, Bledsoe, Brad Johnson & Kerry Collins: the end is nigh
You might want to bump Brandon Marshall up, it looks like he will start opposite Walker next year.
Updated Tuesday, November 28.
With week 13 coming up, we're at a point where two camps have pretty much separated themselves. My leagues are beginning to look like a junior high mixer with the holy grail seekers on one side and the rebuilders on the other. Those in the playoff hunt are concentrating on acquiring potential key playoff performers. Those looking towards next year are looking to get as much value as they can for players like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Steve McNair.
Championship banners fly forever, and I'm in the thick of the playoff race. Consequently, if it looks like veterans on playoff teams are higher here than they should be, their value to me is reflected as opposed to their value to a rebuilding team. I've tried to keep myself from drastically over-valuing playoff players, but I may have inadvertently slipped here and there.
Bottom line: your unique situation is likely to be different from mine or anybody else's. Please keep this in mind.
With week 13 coming up, we're at a point where two camps have pretty much separated themselves. My leagues are beginning to look like a junior high mixer with the holy grail seekers on one side and the rebuilders on the other. Those in the playoff hunt are concentrating on acquiring potential key playoff performers. Those looking towards next year are looking to get as much value as they can for players like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Steve McNair.
Championship banners fly forever, and I'm in the thick of the playoff race. Consequently, if it looks like veterans on playoff teams are higher here than they should be, their value to me is reflected as opposed to their value to a rebuilding team. I've tried to keep myself from drastically over-valuing playoff players, but I may have inadvertently slipped here and there.
Bottom line: your unique situation is likely to be different from mine or anybody else's. Please keep this in mind.
Great stuff, F&L.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 28 2006, 12:24 PM)
Updated Tuesday, November 28.
With week 13 coming up, we're at a point where two camps have pretty much separated themselves. My leagues are beginning to look like a junior high mixer with the holy grail seekers on one side and the rebuilders on the other. Those in the playoff hunt are concentrating on acquiring potential key playoff performers. Those looking towards next year are looking to get as much value as they can for players like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Steve McNair.
Championship banners fly forever, and I'm in the thick of the playoff race. Consequently, if it looks like veterans on playoff teams are higher here than they should be, their value to me is reflected as opposed to their value to a rebuilding team. I've tried to keep myself from drastically over-valuing playoff players, but I may have inadvertently slipped here and there.
Bottom line: your unique situation is likely to be different from mine or anybody else's. Please keep this in mind.
With week 13 coming up, we're at a point where two camps have pretty much separated themselves. My leagues are beginning to look like a junior high mixer with the holy grail seekers on one side and the rebuilders on the other. Those in the playoff hunt are concentrating on acquiring potential key playoff performers. Those looking towards next year are looking to get as much value as they can for players like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Steve McNair.
Championship banners fly forever, and I'm in the thick of the playoff race. Consequently, if it looks like veterans on playoff teams are higher here than they should be, their value to me is reflected as opposed to their value to a rebuilding team. I've tried to keep myself from drastically over-valuing playoff players, but I may have inadvertently slipped here and there.
Bottom line: your unique situation is likely to be different from mine or anybody else's. Please keep this in mind.
A great point about the camps separating. We almost need 2 lists. One for value of players given a playoff run, and one for those who plan to start fresh next year. F&L, you've done great work, so I'm not suggesting at all that you do this. Just wonder if Sigmund or Jeff have considered this. Probably can start with current list, and provide some tweaks here and there.
QUOTE (toppshelff @ Nov 29 2006, 03:57 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 28 2006, 12:24 PM)
Updated Tuesday, November 28.
With week 13 coming up, we're at a point where two camps have pretty much separated themselves. My leagues are beginning to look like a junior high mixer with the holy grail seekers on one side and the rebuilders on the other. Those in the playoff hunt are concentrating on acquiring potential key playoff performers. Those looking towards next year are looking to get as much value as they can for players like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Steve McNair.
Championship banners fly forever, and I'm in the thick of the playoff race. Consequently, if it looks like veterans on playoff teams are higher here than they should be, their value to me is reflected as opposed to their value to a rebuilding team. I've tried to keep myself from drastically over-valuing playoff players, but I may have inadvertently slipped here and there.
Bottom line: your unique situation is likely to be different from mine or anybody else's. Please keep this in mind.
A great point about the camps separating. We almost need 2 lists. One for value of players given a playoff run, and one for those who plan to start fresh next year. F&L, you've done great work, so I'm not suggesting at all that you do this. Just wonder if Sigmund or Jeff have considered this. Probably can start with current list, and provide some tweaks here and there.
I've addressed some of this with my "fire sale" and "stash and hold" sections of recent buy low/sell high articles and I usually address it in my buy low/sell high writeups. Your individual team's makeup is ALWAYS the determining factor in dynasty values. When people ask my trade advice, my first question is usually "what s your record?" and my second is "who else is on your roster?". Tiki Barber in particular is a player that is either worthless or hugely important depending on your situation. I'll try to figure out a way to incorporate this into the dynasty rankings for next year.
Updated 12/4/06 before Monday night's game.
It's Mia Culpa Time here in the Dynasty Rankings. Will the apologists for the following players please report to the principal's office:
1. Julius Jones: Is 23 still too low for him? It's blatantly obvious that Marion Barber does at least 3 things much better than Jones: 1] short yardage 2] receiving 3] pass blocking. I have only myself to blame for bumping him up in the rankings after hearing from the pro-Julius crowd.
2. Rex Grossman: Is 18 still too low for Grossman in a dynasty ranking? He's lucky there isn't anyone obvious in the 20-25 range knocking on the door because he could reasonably be moved down much further. I still say there's going to be a Brian Griese sighting.
3. Troy Williamson: I think I had him in the late 30s initially when someone tried to make the claim that he wasn't ranked high enough? Hmmm...his hands are so poor that he's being deactivated these days. Do you still believe in him?
4. Jake Delhomme: Who still likes him better than the ultra-talented young QB trio of Rivers, Leinart & Young? I saw Mort had him as #1 on his list of QBs on the hot seat yesterday. I wouldn't go that far, and I do think he'll turn it around somewhat to close out the year. However, this is not a QB you want to run out there on a weekly basis.
Not to be forgotten, where is our friend who was shocked that Leinart was ahead of Alex Smith? Do you still feel that way? After a promising start to the season, Smith has clearly regressed over the past month or so. I don't think he's anywhere close to Matt Leinart in value.
I've taken my medicine when I've been wrong, now let's here from the apologists...
It's Mia Culpa Time here in the Dynasty Rankings. Will the apologists for the following players please report to the principal's office:
1. Julius Jones: Is 23 still too low for him? It's blatantly obvious that Marion Barber does at least 3 things much better than Jones: 1] short yardage 2] receiving 3] pass blocking. I have only myself to blame for bumping him up in the rankings after hearing from the pro-Julius crowd.
2. Rex Grossman: Is 18 still too low for Grossman in a dynasty ranking? He's lucky there isn't anyone obvious in the 20-25 range knocking on the door because he could reasonably be moved down much further. I still say there's going to be a Brian Griese sighting.
3. Troy Williamson: I think I had him in the late 30s initially when someone tried to make the claim that he wasn't ranked high enough? Hmmm...his hands are so poor that he's being deactivated these days. Do you still believe in him?
4. Jake Delhomme: Who still likes him better than the ultra-talented young QB trio of Rivers, Leinart & Young? I saw Mort had him as #1 on his list of QBs on the hot seat yesterday. I wouldn't go that far, and I do think he'll turn it around somewhat to close out the year. However, this is not a QB you want to run out there on a weekly basis.
Not to be forgotten, where is our friend who was shocked that Leinart was ahead of Alex Smith? Do you still feel that way? After a promising start to the season, Smith has clearly regressed over the past month or so. I don't think he's anywhere close to Matt Leinart in value.
I've taken my medicine when I've been wrong, now let's here from the apologists...
Bump for the afternoon crowd.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 4 2006, 06:52 PM)
Updated 12/4/06 before Monday night's game.
It's Mia Culpa Time here in the Dynasty Rankings. Will the apologists for the following players please report to the principal's office:
1. Julius Jones: Is 23 still too low for him? It's blatantly obvious that Marion Barber does at least 3 things much better than Jones: 1] short yardage 2] receiving 3] pass blocking. I have only myself to blame for bumping him up in the rankings after hearing from the pro-Julius crowd.
2. Rex Grossman: Is 18 still too low for Grossman in a dynasty ranking? He's lucky there isn't anyone obvious in the 20-25 range knocking on the door because he could reasonably be moved down much further. I still say there's going to be a Brian Griese sighting.
3. Troy Williamson: I think I had him in the late 30s initially when someone tried to make the claim that he wasn't ranked high enough? Hmmm...his hands are so poor that he's being deactivated these days. Do you still believe in him?
4. Jake Delhomme: Who still likes him better than the ultra-talented young QB trio of Rivers, Leinart & Young? I saw Mort had him as #1 on his list of QBs on the hot seat yesterday. I wouldn't go that far, and I do think he'll turn it around somewhat to close out the year. However, this is not a QB you want to run out there on a weekly basis.
Not to be forgotten, where is our friend who was shocked that Leinart was ahead of Alex Smith? Do you still feel that way? After a promising start to the season, Smith has clearly regressed over the past month or so. I don't think he's anywhere close to Matt Leinart in value.
I've taken my medicine when I've been wrong, now let's here from the apologists...
It's Mia Culpa Time here in the Dynasty Rankings. Will the apologists for the following players please report to the principal's office:
1. Julius Jones: Is 23 still too low for him? It's blatantly obvious that Marion Barber does at least 3 things much better than Jones: 1] short yardage 2] receiving 3] pass blocking. I have only myself to blame for bumping him up in the rankings after hearing from the pro-Julius crowd.
2. Rex Grossman: Is 18 still too low for Grossman in a dynasty ranking? He's lucky there isn't anyone obvious in the 20-25 range knocking on the door because he could reasonably be moved down much further. I still say there's going to be a Brian Griese sighting.
3. Troy Williamson: I think I had him in the late 30s initially when someone tried to make the claim that he wasn't ranked high enough? Hmmm...his hands are so poor that he's being deactivated these days. Do you still believe in him?
4. Jake Delhomme: Who still likes him better than the ultra-talented young QB trio of Rivers, Leinart & Young? I saw Mort had him as #1 on his list of QBs on the hot seat yesterday. I wouldn't go that far, and I do think he'll turn it around somewhat to close out the year. However, this is not a QB you want to run out there on a weekly basis.
Not to be forgotten, where is our friend who was shocked that Leinart was ahead of Alex Smith? Do you still feel that way? After a promising start to the season, Smith has clearly regressed over the past month or so. I don't think he's anywhere close to Matt Leinart in value.
I've taken my medicine when I've been wrong, now let's here from the apologists...
Hi my name is perry and I am a JJ'olic; This is my first meeting
- I continued to believe that JJ was better than MB even through the evidence was before my face week in and week out for the past month. I am starting therapy now and hope to be feeling better soon.Thank you.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 5 2006, 01:07 PM)
Bump for the afternoon crowd.
Thank you sir.
My RBs are a little weak, but four WRs in the top 30, P. Manning & Gates - I
my team. OK, it's Mythbusters time on the dynasty rankings thread. It's well past time to debunk a doggedly persistent Footballguystalk myth. Whether this myth comes from the keyboard of a loud-mouthed newbie in his first fantasy football league or from well-spoken seasoned staff writers, it has enjoyed an astonishing staying power.
MYTH:
Actuality:
Ben Roethlisberger pass attempts by season:
2004 - 14 games, 295 attempts
2005 - 12 games, 268 attempts
2006 - 12 games, 393 attempts
Carson Palmer
2006 - 12 games, 386 attempts
Philip Rivers
2006 - 12 games, 360 attempts
Peyton Manning
2006 - 12 games, 407 attempts
Eli Manning
2006 - 12 games, 398 attempts
Ben Roethlisberger is still the most overlooked QB property in dynasty leagues. Consider QB rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage, won/loss record and postseason success, and you're still looking at the most impressive beginning to an NFL career in history. I know, fat lot of good that's done for your weekly fantasy lineup. On the other hand, it is an indication of elite talent, which should be foremost in your considerations for long-term dynasty success.
While this has truly been a down year for Roethlisberger with the motorcycle accident, the emergency surgery, the fluke and not-so-fluke interceptions, all around spotty play and bad luck, the bright spots should not be overlooked. The Steelers' passing attempts have increased significantly this season, and it's not just a product of untimely interceptions, a shaky secondary, and Bettis' retirement. This team's personnel has dictated a move to a more passing friendly game plan. Take a serious look at Roethlisberger's weapons this year and for the future:
True #1 WR: Hines Ward. Always a high catch percentage, gets open, willing to go over the middle, makes plays, and a redzone weapon (not to mention consistently underrated in this site's dynasty rankings).
Up & coming 1st round draft pick: Santonio Holmes. Coming on strong the past 5-6 weeks, explosive after the catch, and looking like a significant 2007 improvement on recent #2 WR's Antwaan Randle El & Cedrick Wilson.
Dominant talent at TE: In 2005, Heath Miller had one of the top 10 rookie seasons of all time for a tight end. He remains a strong redzone weapon and will continue to develop going into his 3rd & 4th seasons as most TEs do.
Underrated playmaker at 3rd WR: Nate Washington has stepped into the WR void behind Hines Ward and made quite a few big plays this season. Outside of Chris Henry, he's been as good as any 3rd WR in the league this season.
At RB Willie Parker has 3 receiving TDs this season, which is above average for a running back and another clear sign of his homerun hitting ability. If he returns and is in good health, Verron Haynes is one of the better 3rd down backs in the NFL.
Much gets lost in the shuffle during the typical week to week (mostly manufactured) storylines of a NFL season. Among the storylines lost and/or completely misrepresented during the course of this season has been the promising future of the Steelers' offense, both in the passing game and the running game. Ben Roethlisberger already had the individual NFL-level talent as evidenced by his historic first two seasons. What's exciting for his fantasy future is the already changing offensive philosophy to suit the impressive young talent comprising the Steelers' passing game. While the Steelers' vaunted defense slips a bit with age in the coming seasons, the up and coming offense will pick up the slack and mandate a different breed of Pittsburgh play calling.
Going into 2007, this is a top 5-7 dynasty quarterback. If your league's Roethlisberger owner is still caught up in the myth, go ahead and steal him while his value is at its lowest.
MYTH:
QUOTE
Ben Roethlisberger will never be a fantasy football stud because the Steelers' offensive philosophy will always be run first. If Bill Cowher were to retire, this may be subject to change. Until that day, however, the Steelers' offensive tendencies will always put a damper on Roethlisberger's value.
Actuality:
Ben Roethlisberger pass attempts by season:
2004 - 14 games, 295 attempts
2005 - 12 games, 268 attempts
2006 - 12 games, 393 attempts
Carson Palmer
2006 - 12 games, 386 attempts
Philip Rivers
2006 - 12 games, 360 attempts
Peyton Manning
2006 - 12 games, 407 attempts
Eli Manning
2006 - 12 games, 398 attempts
Ben Roethlisberger is still the most overlooked QB property in dynasty leagues. Consider QB rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage, won/loss record and postseason success, and you're still looking at the most impressive beginning to an NFL career in history. I know, fat lot of good that's done for your weekly fantasy lineup. On the other hand, it is an indication of elite talent, which should be foremost in your considerations for long-term dynasty success.
While this has truly been a down year for Roethlisberger with the motorcycle accident, the emergency surgery, the fluke and not-so-fluke interceptions, all around spotty play and bad luck, the bright spots should not be overlooked. The Steelers' passing attempts have increased significantly this season, and it's not just a product of untimely interceptions, a shaky secondary, and Bettis' retirement. This team's personnel has dictated a move to a more passing friendly game plan. Take a serious look at Roethlisberger's weapons this year and for the future:
True #1 WR: Hines Ward. Always a high catch percentage, gets open, willing to go over the middle, makes plays, and a redzone weapon (not to mention consistently underrated in this site's dynasty rankings).
Up & coming 1st round draft pick: Santonio Holmes. Coming on strong the past 5-6 weeks, explosive after the catch, and looking like a significant 2007 improvement on recent #2 WR's Antwaan Randle El & Cedrick Wilson.
Dominant talent at TE: In 2005, Heath Miller had one of the top 10 rookie seasons of all time for a tight end. He remains a strong redzone weapon and will continue to develop going into his 3rd & 4th seasons as most TEs do.
Underrated playmaker at 3rd WR: Nate Washington has stepped into the WR void behind Hines Ward and made quite a few big plays this season. Outside of Chris Henry, he's been as good as any 3rd WR in the league this season.
At RB Willie Parker has 3 receiving TDs this season, which is above average for a running back and another clear sign of his homerun hitting ability. If he returns and is in good health, Verron Haynes is one of the better 3rd down backs in the NFL.
Much gets lost in the shuffle during the typical week to week (mostly manufactured) storylines of a NFL season. Among the storylines lost and/or completely misrepresented during the course of this season has been the promising future of the Steelers' offense, both in the passing game and the running game. Ben Roethlisberger already had the individual NFL-level talent as evidenced by his historic first two seasons. What's exciting for his fantasy future is the already changing offensive philosophy to suit the impressive young talent comprising the Steelers' passing game. While the Steelers' vaunted defense slips a bit with age in the coming seasons, the up and coming offense will pick up the slack and mandate a different breed of Pittsburgh play calling.
Going into 2007, this is a top 5-7 dynasty quarterback. If your league's Roethlisberger owner is still caught up in the myth, go ahead and steal him while his value is at its lowest.
12/11/06 NOTES:
Every football season brings a new round of caterwauling and hand-wringing from the talking heads and fantasy “experts” on the dearth of quality QBs in the NFL. It’s lazy analysis, and it’s trotted out after every average QB has a bad game. The truth is that there’s been a march of young talented QBs entering the league in the last few years, and I’m reflecting that influx in this week’s rankings. After the top 5 QBs, I’m beginning the march with a gang of young QBs well on their way to outstanding careers: Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers & Matt Leinart – four QBs who will be excellent players for a long, long time.
Drew Brees is performing at a high level no matter who he has at WR. I’m moving him up to #3, and I actually gave some thought to moving Vince Young ahead of Tom Brady before narrowly deciding against it. If Brady can't get some help on offense, the inconsistency is going to continue to be a problem.
Shaun Alexander’s dynasty value sprung a leak with his foot injury, and it’s been seeping ever since. He’ll turn 30 before next season with a lot of carries under his belt, and the offensive line is not close to what it’s been in years past. He’s still a “start your stud” RB, but he’s also entering the phase of his career where you have to consider dealing him before you get stuck with the Marshall Faulk 2003 situation. I’m not advocating a drastic drop, but I am moving young studs Reggie Bush & Frank Gore ahead of him…and Willie Parker is right there as well.
I know there are some FBG staff members who disagree, but Maurice Jones-Drew is a no-doubt top 15 RB property in dynasty leagues. I’ve seen the majority of his games this season, and there’s not a better homerun hitter in the league.
I’ve seen some top 10 - top 12 votes for Cadillac Williams in the site’s dynasty polls, and I just can’t figure it out. How many years are the Bucs away from having a half-way decent offense? You could possibly see some light at the end of the tunnel if they were willing to explore other avenues at QB, but the news that they’re trying to re-sign Chris Simms is downright disheartening for fantasy owners. The only WR germane to the fantasy football conversation is an inconsistent 35-year-old burner who will have very little left in the tank by the time the rest of the offense makes itself relevant. Cadillac Williams is flat-out unusable until he and the Bucs prove otherwise.
Who has more value: Marion Barber III or Julius Jones? I don’t know, do you? For now, they both seem stuck in neverland between RB2/RB3.
Will LenDale White get a chance to take over next season? I don’t know. My guess is Tennessee’s recent impressive run will mean that Travis Henry’s contract situation gets re-worked in the off-season, and he’ll remain the starter for at least one more season. But it’s just a guess.
I don’t think Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner or Jerious Norwood will get anything more than part-time gigs next season.
The following will be considered solely as 3rd down specialist until further notice: Mewelde Moore, Mike Bell, Leon Washington, Wali Lundy, & Chris Perry. This group could annex Vernand Morency & Musa Smith in the future, but there’s still a sliver of hope for both of them in 2007.
Steve Smith is the most explosive WR in football. Unfortunately, the hazy QB picture in Carolina (now and for the future) has forced me to move Chad Johnson and his ideal QB situation into the #1 slot. I gave some consideration to Larry Fitzgerald as well, but that may be another year off.
Vernon Davis stole a page out of Nuke LaLoosh’s book and “announced his presence with authority.” I moved him up a couple of spots, but this freak could fly up the charts if he keeps it up.
The defensive rankings are based significantly on playoff permutations. Week 15/16 playoff leagues would obviously have Pittsburgh, Carolina, Miami & Denver higher than they are here. Ditto kickers.
Every football season brings a new round of caterwauling and hand-wringing from the talking heads and fantasy “experts” on the dearth of quality QBs in the NFL. It’s lazy analysis, and it’s trotted out after every average QB has a bad game. The truth is that there’s been a march of young talented QBs entering the league in the last few years, and I’m reflecting that influx in this week’s rankings. After the top 5 QBs, I’m beginning the march with a gang of young QBs well on their way to outstanding careers: Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers & Matt Leinart – four QBs who will be excellent players for a long, long time.
Drew Brees is performing at a high level no matter who he has at WR. I’m moving him up to #3, and I actually gave some thought to moving Vince Young ahead of Tom Brady before narrowly deciding against it. If Brady can't get some help on offense, the inconsistency is going to continue to be a problem.
Shaun Alexander’s dynasty value sprung a leak with his foot injury, and it’s been seeping ever since. He’ll turn 30 before next season with a lot of carries under his belt, and the offensive line is not close to what it’s been in years past. He’s still a “start your stud” RB, but he’s also entering the phase of his career where you have to consider dealing him before you get stuck with the Marshall Faulk 2003 situation. I’m not advocating a drastic drop, but I am moving young studs Reggie Bush & Frank Gore ahead of him…and Willie Parker is right there as well.
I know there are some FBG staff members who disagree, but Maurice Jones-Drew is a no-doubt top 15 RB property in dynasty leagues. I’ve seen the majority of his games this season, and there’s not a better homerun hitter in the league.
I’ve seen some top 10 - top 12 votes for Cadillac Williams in the site’s dynasty polls, and I just can’t figure it out. How many years are the Bucs away from having a half-way decent offense? You could possibly see some light at the end of the tunnel if they were willing to explore other avenues at QB, but the news that they’re trying to re-sign Chris Simms is downright disheartening for fantasy owners. The only WR germane to the fantasy football conversation is an inconsistent 35-year-old burner who will have very little left in the tank by the time the rest of the offense makes itself relevant. Cadillac Williams is flat-out unusable until he and the Bucs prove otherwise.
Who has more value: Marion Barber III or Julius Jones? I don’t know, do you? For now, they both seem stuck in neverland between RB2/RB3.
Will LenDale White get a chance to take over next season? I don’t know. My guess is Tennessee’s recent impressive run will mean that Travis Henry’s contract situation gets re-worked in the off-season, and he’ll remain the starter for at least one more season. But it’s just a guess.
I don’t think Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner or Jerious Norwood will get anything more than part-time gigs next season.
The following will be considered solely as 3rd down specialist until further notice: Mewelde Moore, Mike Bell, Leon Washington, Wali Lundy, & Chris Perry. This group could annex Vernand Morency & Musa Smith in the future, but there’s still a sliver of hope for both of them in 2007.
Steve Smith is the most explosive WR in football. Unfortunately, the hazy QB picture in Carolina (now and for the future) has forced me to move Chad Johnson and his ideal QB situation into the #1 slot. I gave some consideration to Larry Fitzgerald as well, but that may be another year off.
Vernon Davis stole a page out of Nuke LaLoosh’s book and “announced his presence with authority.” I moved him up a couple of spots, but this freak could fly up the charts if he keeps it up.
The defensive rankings are based significantly on playoff permutations. Week 15/16 playoff leagues would obviously have Pittsburgh, Carolina, Miami & Denver higher than they are here. Ditto kickers.
Noticed that KJones dropped a number of slots. Based on the lis-franc diagnosis, he might drop some more slots, I think (as a sad KJ owner). Does this move Calhoun up in the rankings, or does it make it a lot more likely that Detroit goes after AP in the draft... I think they have other holes to fill, and its not like they are going to win it next year. 2008 will bring full health to both KJ and Calhoun.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
QUOTE (toppshelff @ Dec 12 2006, 01:33 PM)
Noticed that KJones dropped a number of slots. Based on the lis-franc diagnosis, he might drop some more slots, I think (as a sad KJ owner). Does this move Calhoun up in the rankings, or does it make it a lot more likely that Detroit goes after AP in the draft... I think they have other holes to fill, and its not like they are going to win it next year. 2008 will bring full health to both KJ and Calhoun.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
You're right, he could drop again once we find out for sure what the diagnosis is. I moved Calhoun up @ 20 spots, and I'll move him up again soon if it looks like he's going to be healthy and penciled in for extensive work next season.
Right now, RB looks like a cloudy mess for the Lions in the 2007. I just don't know how much you can count on Calhoun early next season coming off a mid-season 2006 ACL surgery. It's clearly a different timetable for RBs than it is for a pocket passer like Carson Palmer. This game is hard enough to play at the NFL level when a player is healthy. A recovering and hesitant Brian Calhoun isn't likely to be much better than a replacement level player.
... any thoughts on Alvin Pearman ?
He is buried on the Jags depth chart,
but he displays some nice ability
when given the opportunity.
Surprised he didn't make your list.
Nice list BTW.
He is buried on the Jags depth chart,
but he displays some nice ability
when given the opportunity.
Surprised he didn't make your list.
Nice list BTW.
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Dec 12 2006, 03:04 PM)
... any thoughts on Alvin Pearman ?
He is buried on the Jags depth chart,
but he displays some nice ability
when given the opportunity.
Surprised he didn't make your list.
Nice list BTW.
He is buried on the Jags depth chart,
but he displays some nice ability
when given the opportunity.
Surprised he didn't make your list.
Nice list BTW.
Thanks.
I don't have Pearman on the list because he's not only a tweener, but he's also lacking opportunity and starter-level talent. He's not likely to be anything more than an NFL 3rd down back, and Jones-Drew's presence makes him extraneous. If the Jags are looking for Taylor's replacement within the next year or two it's more likely to be Greg Jones or a player not presently on the Jags than Pearman. He's not the thunder to Jones-Drew's lightning.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Dec 12 2006, 02:55 PM)
QUOTE (toppshelff @ Dec 12 2006, 01:33 PM)
Noticed that KJones dropped a number of slots. Based on the lis-franc diagnosis, he might drop some more slots, I think (as a sad KJ owner). Does this move Calhoun up in the rankings, or does it make it a lot more likely that Detroit goes after AP in the draft... I think they have other holes to fill, and its not like they are going to win it next year. 2008 will bring full health to both KJ and Calhoun.
Thoughts?
You're right, he could drop again once we find out for sure what the diagnosis is. I moved Calhoun up @ 20 spots, and I'll move him up again soon if it looks like he's going to be healthy and penciled in for extensive work next season.
Right now, RB looks like a cloudy mess for the Lions in the 2007. I just don't know how much you can count on Calhoun early next season coming off a mid-season 2006 ACL surgery. It's clearly a different timetable for RBs than it is for a pocket passer like Carson Palmer. This game is hard enough to play at the NFL level when a player is healthy. A recovering and hesitant Brian Calhoun isn't likely to be much better than a replacement level player.
Latest on Kevin Jones & Lions '07 RB situation from Rotoworld:
QUOTE
Lions placed Kevin Jones on injured reserve with a foot injury, ending his season.
Jones will undergo surgery this week on his injured foot. He's expected to miss a minimum of six months and may not be 100% to open next season. Detroit is going to have to pick up more running back depth in the off-season because Brian Calhoun is recovering from a torn ACL. Expect lots of Jones posts this off-season. We can't wait!
Jones will undergo surgery this week on his injured foot. He's expected to miss a minimum of six months and may not be 100% to open next season. Detroit is going to have to pick up more running back depth in the off-season because Brian Calhoun is recovering from a torn ACL. Expect lots of Jones posts this off-season. We can't wait!
It looks like both Jones & Calhoun will be touch and go throughout the summer, so the Lions will have to bring in someone more reliable to start the 2007 season. I'll probably move Jones down again because it looks like his '07 season is going to be less than copacetic. I can't see Calhoun moving much higher than 50 or so, considering his own health questions.
This has become a very good dynasty list IMO. Only thing that stands out to me is Boldin behind the aging Harrison and the aging and always disgruntled Owens.
QUOTE (fruity pebbles @ Dec 12 2006, 04:56 PM)
This has become a very good dynasty list IMO. Only thing that stands out to me is Boldin behind the aging Harrison and the aging and always disgruntled Owens.
Thank you.
And you may be right...for your league. I've got a disclaimer at the top of the list (and elsewhere throughout the thread) asking people to keep in mind that these rankings are based primarily on my particular dynasty leagues, wherein playoff players are more valuable than non-playoff players. That's the reason for the discrepancy on Boldin vs. Harrison & Owens. Both of the veteran WR are significant chips for owners going to the playoffs.
If I played in a league where the playoffs happened in Week 15/16, then Boldin & Roy Williams would be ranked higher than Harrison & T.O.
I know that a lot of people are going to skip right to the rankings and miss the explanation; however, I'm assuming the people who do read the explanation will do the simple math and make an adjustment here and there to suit their own league set-up.
Updated as of Wednesday the 20th.
I realize many dynasty leaguers have shifted their emphasis to the 2007 season; however, my regular season is still going on. While my rankings are beginning to shift toward the future, there are still some that are slanted towards the rest of this season and the playoffs.
Have at it, Hoss.
I realize many dynasty leaguers have shifted their emphasis to the 2007 season; however, my regular season is still going on. While my rankings are beginning to shift toward the future, there are still some that are slanted towards the rest of this season and the playoffs.
Have at it, Hoss.
I'm working this week on "end of the year" dynasty rankings and hope to have them up soon.
Comments, suggestions, complaints, quibbles are welcome...
(As of right now, the rankings on the first page are still a couple weeks old).
Comments, suggestions, complaints, quibbles are welcome...
(As of right now, the rankings on the first page are still a couple weeks old).
Hank Baskett needs to be added to the WR list ...
1/3/07 Rankings:
# = Injury Concerns
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 Peyton Manning IND
2 Carson Palmer CIN
3 Drew Brees NO
4 Tom Brady NE
5 #Donovan McNabb PHI
6 Michael Vick ATL - Losing Mora/Knapp will help, still needs WRs & more commitment
TIER TWO -- FUTURE STUDS & SOLID STARTERS
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Marc Bulger STL - Offense beginning to revolve around Jackson, still redzone issues
11 Philip Rivers SD - Top 10 in playoff leagues
12 Matt Hasselbeck SEA - Took a step back in '06, could be anywhere from 5 - 14
TIER THREE -- WOULD-BE STUDS
13 Jay Cutler DEN
14 Byron Leftwich JAX* - Would thrive with a change of scenery, still much better than Garrard
15 Eli Manning NYG - Headcase, overrated, '07 Giants in state of flux?
16 Alex Smith SF
17 Tony Romo DAL - Turning back into a pumpkin at midnight? Future w/out TO & Parcells?
18 #Daunte Culpepper MIA
TIER FOUR -- NON-STARTABLE VARIETY PACK
19 Jake Delhomme CAR - Should start in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB
20 Rex Grossman CHI - Headcase #2, playoffs will be telling
21 Jason Campbell WAS - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
22 Tarvaris Jackson MIN - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish
23 J.P. Losman BUF - I need to see another year of improvement before I become a believer
24 David Carr HOU* - Desperate for a change of scenery but probably won't be handed a job
25 Jon Kitna DET - Good for one more year of top 15 production? Could fall apart anytime
26 Steve McNair BAL - Worth more in playoff leagues, better NFL than fantasy QB
TIER FIVE -- WHAT'S THE FUTURE, KENNETH?
27 Chad Pennington NYJ - Can they take the job from him in '07? Contract issues?
28 Charlie Frye CLE - With Crennel on hot seat, I think they'll bring in a veteran QB
29 Kellen Clemens NYJ
30 Matt Schaub ATL [RFA] - Will he get the opportunity? More importantly, how good is he?
31 Jake Plummer DEN* - Likely to compete for starting job somewhere? Houston?
32 Chris Simms TB - I can't believe TB re-signed him to be the starter, but there he sits…
33 David Garrard JAX - Good enough to start for team ready to compete now?
34 Aaron Rodgers GB - Will Favre retire?
35 Brodie Croyle KC - Edwards talking him up, but is he ready? Will Huard be re-signed?
TIER SIX -- PAST PRIME VETS & TALENTED BUT RAW BACK-UPS
36 Trent Green KC - Short leash
37 Jeff Garcia PHI - Can't see a team making him their starter in '07, but may compete to start
38 Brian Griese CHI - If he stays in Chicago, likely to start over Grossman at some point
39 Cleo Lemon MIA [RFA] - Culpepper insurance
40 Quinn Gray JAX Looks like '07 back-up to either Garrard or Leftwich
41 Kyle Boller BAL
42 Seneca Wallace SEA - Will back-up one more year barring a trade
43 Drew Bledsoe DAL* - Bledsoe news is quiet, but will he end up starting games for someone in '07?
44 Brett Favre GB - I'm not counting him out until he says the word
45 Aaron Brooks OAK - He's done as a fantasy entity as far as I'm concerned
46 Damon Huard KC [UFA] - Will he stay in KC or compete to start elsewhere?
TIER SEVEN -- NOT RELEVANT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE OR SCENERY CHANGE
47 Matt Cassel NE
48 Patrick Ramsey NYJ
49 Kurt Warner ARI
50 D.J. Shockley ATL
51 David Greene SEA
52 Bruce Gradkowski TB
53 Tim Rattay TB*
54 Charlie Whitehurst SD
55 Billy Volek SD
56 Sage Rosenfels HOU
57 Joey Harrington MIA*
58 Brooks Bollinger MIN
59 Derek Anderson CLE
60 Dan Orlovsky DET
61 A.J. Feeley PHI
62 Andrew Walter OAK
63 Charlie Batch PIT
64 Marques Tuiasosopo OAK
65 Kerry Collins TEN [UFA]
66 Brad Johnson MIN*
67 #Mark Brunell WAS*
68 Brett Basanez CAR
# = Injury Concerns
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 Peyton Manning IND
2 Carson Palmer CIN
3 Drew Brees NO
4 Tom Brady NE
5 #Donovan McNabb PHI
6 Michael Vick ATL - Losing Mora/Knapp will help, still needs WRs & more commitment
TIER TWO -- FUTURE STUDS & SOLID STARTERS
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Marc Bulger STL - Offense beginning to revolve around Jackson, still redzone issues
11 Philip Rivers SD - Top 10 in playoff leagues
12 Matt Hasselbeck SEA - Took a step back in '06, could be anywhere from 5 - 14
TIER THREE -- WOULD-BE STUDS
13 Jay Cutler DEN
14 Byron Leftwich JAX* - Would thrive with a change of scenery, still much better than Garrard
15 Eli Manning NYG - Headcase, overrated, '07 Giants in state of flux?
16 Alex Smith SF
17 Tony Romo DAL - Turning back into a pumpkin at midnight? Future w/out TO & Parcells?
18 #Daunte Culpepper MIA
TIER FOUR -- NON-STARTABLE VARIETY PACK
19 Jake Delhomme CAR - Should start in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB
20 Rex Grossman CHI - Headcase #2, playoffs will be telling
21 Jason Campbell WAS - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
22 Tarvaris Jackson MIN - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish
23 J.P. Losman BUF - I need to see another year of improvement before I become a believer
24 David Carr HOU* - Desperate for a change of scenery but probably won't be handed a job
25 Jon Kitna DET - Good for one more year of top 15 production? Could fall apart anytime
26 Steve McNair BAL - Worth more in playoff leagues, better NFL than fantasy QB
TIER FIVE -- WHAT'S THE FUTURE, KENNETH?
27 Chad Pennington NYJ - Can they take the job from him in '07? Contract issues?
28 Charlie Frye CLE - With Crennel on hot seat, I think they'll bring in a veteran QB
29 Kellen Clemens NYJ
30 Matt Schaub ATL [RFA] - Will he get the opportunity? More importantly, how good is he?
31 Jake Plummer DEN* - Likely to compete for starting job somewhere? Houston?
32 Chris Simms TB - I can't believe TB re-signed him to be the starter, but there he sits…
33 David Garrard JAX - Good enough to start for team ready to compete now?
34 Aaron Rodgers GB - Will Favre retire?
35 Brodie Croyle KC - Edwards talking him up, but is he ready? Will Huard be re-signed?
TIER SIX -- PAST PRIME VETS & TALENTED BUT RAW BACK-UPS
36 Trent Green KC - Short leash
37 Jeff Garcia PHI - Can't see a team making him their starter in '07, but may compete to start
38 Brian Griese CHI - If he stays in Chicago, likely to start over Grossman at some point
39 Cleo Lemon MIA [RFA] - Culpepper insurance
40 Quinn Gray JAX Looks like '07 back-up to either Garrard or Leftwich
41 Kyle Boller BAL
42 Seneca Wallace SEA - Will back-up one more year barring a trade
43 Drew Bledsoe DAL* - Bledsoe news is quiet, but will he end up starting games for someone in '07?
44 Brett Favre GB - I'm not counting him out until he says the word
45 Aaron Brooks OAK - He's done as a fantasy entity as far as I'm concerned
46 Damon Huard KC [UFA] - Will he stay in KC or compete to start elsewhere?
TIER SEVEN -- NOT RELEVANT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE OR SCENERY CHANGE
47 Matt Cassel NE
48 Patrick Ramsey NYJ
49 Kurt Warner ARI
50 D.J. Shockley ATL
51 David Greene SEA
52 Bruce Gradkowski TB
53 Tim Rattay TB*
54 Charlie Whitehurst SD
55 Billy Volek SD
56 Sage Rosenfels HOU
57 Joey Harrington MIA*
58 Brooks Bollinger MIN
59 Derek Anderson CLE
60 Dan Orlovsky DET
61 A.J. Feeley PHI
62 Andrew Walter OAK
63 Charlie Batch PIT
64 Marques Tuiasosopo OAK
65 Kerry Collins TEN [UFA]
66 Brad Johnson MIN*
67 #Mark Brunell WAS*
68 Brett Basanez CAR
RUNNINGBACKS
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD
2 Steven Jackson STL - LJ has TD edge, S-Jax has youth, receiving game, dome & better offense
3 Larry Johnson KC
4 Frank Gore SF
5 Reggie Bush NO
6 Willie Parker PIT
TIER TWO -- EVERY WEEK STARTERS WITH MINOR CONCERNS
7 Clinton Portis WAS - Will Ladell Betts steal carries in '07?
8 Brian Westbrook PHI - Due for an injury-plagued '07?
9 Ronnie Brown MIA - Steven Jackson-type talent, but labled by Saban "15-20 touches RB"
10 Shaun Alexander SEA - Value is seeping, 3.6 ypc in '06
11 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX - A more explosive Westbrook? Could be…
12 Rudi Johnson CIN - Poor receiver, ypc down in '06, starting to slip or poor line play?
13 Joseph Addai IND - Rhodes is UFA, will he or another back still dent value in '07?
14 Laurence Maroney NE - Will he have to share in '07?
TIER THREE -- LOW UPSIDE STARTERS OR YET TO TAKE THE LEAP
15 Willis McGahee BUF - Didn't look as explosive, but could bounce back to top 10-12
16 Deuce McAllister NO
17 DeAngelo Williams CAR - John Fox cost his team the playoffs by continuing to run Foster out there
18 Cedric Benson CHI - Headcase, but his time is coming soon
19 Cadillac Williams TB - Major questions heading into '07, TB offense is currently dead
20 #Kevin Jones DET - Ready for '07 start? Some reports say yes, some say significantly longer
21 Chester Taylor MIN - Career year? Or will he continue to be startable for a few years?
TIER FOUR -- HIGH UPSIDE W/ MAJOR QUESTION MARKS & AGING, BUT STILL HOLDING VALUE
22 Marion Barber III DAL - Will he continue in the same role, or keep usurping carries?
23 Julius Jones DAL - What's his future in Dallas?
24 Tatum Bell DEN - Will he start in '07? Must shake weak tag and fumbling issues
25 Jamal Lewis BAL* - Great value in '06, could be similar in '07 if he stays in Baltimore
26 Edgerrin James ARI - Re-gained some value late in season, still questions about goal-line work
27 LenDale White TEN - One more year of Travis Henry? Maturity questions?
28 Michael Turner SD [RFA] - May not start until '08, Chargers claim they will tender highest possible
29 Thomas Jones CHI - Benson taking more & more each week, what does '07 hold for Jones?
30 Brandon Jacobs NYG - Not good enough for full RB responsibility, will split with someone
31 Ahman Green GB [UFA] - Another great '06 value, will Morency continue to dent value?
32 Travis Henry TEN - Will he re-work contract to start again in '07?
33 Lamont Jordan OAK - Extremely tough to maintain any value in Oakland
TIER FIVE -- ROLE PLAYERS ANGLING FOR PROMOTION
34 Jerious Norwood ATL - I see change of pace more than every down stud
35 Ladell Betts WAS - Needs a Portis trade or injury to have much value
36 Fred Taylor JAX - Will he have the same role in JAX in '07? One more year?
37 Corey Dillon NE - Will he be back in NE? If not, what then?
38 Vernand Morency GB - RB of future in GB or simply role player? Needs a Green injury
39 Leon Washington NYJ - Likely 3rd down back ceiling, but Westbrook, MJD & Bush are inspiration
TIER SIX -- WILDCARDS
40 #Ricky Williams MIA - Quintessential wildcard, but is "free spirit" worth a dice roll?
41 Warrick Dunn ATL - On the downside
42 DeShaun Foster CAR - If he starts for your team, you're not good
43 Mike Bell DEN - Will probably be 2nd to someone in '07
44 Chris Brown TEN [UFA] - Forgettable '06, change of scenery would do him good
45 Ron Dayne HOU - Who's going to fall for it this year? Texans might…will you?
46 J.J. Arrington ARI - 2nd rounder's one opportunity was less than ideal
47 Musa Smith BAL - Talented, liked by Billick, but just too injury-prone
48 #Brian Calhoun DET - Poor timing with Jones' injury, not likely to be ready to take reigns in Sept.
49 Mewelde Moore MIN - Fantastic in passing game, needs to improve blocking to help value
50 Chris Perry CIN - Great in passing game, way too brittle, not the future in Cincy
51 Justin Fargas OAK - Mentioned as possible '07 starter, but I find that hard to believe
52 Greg Jones JAX - If Taylor leaves, could be MJD's Thunder
53 Najeh Davenport PIT - Big & quick, but where has that gotten him? Not PIT's goal-line back
54 #Domanick Williams HOU* - He says he'll be healthy, many are dubious he'll even play again
55 Cedric Houston NYJ - Poor ypc but nose for end zone and improvement toward year's end
TIER SEVEN -- BACK-UPS, LOW UPSIDE VETERANS & ALL-AROUND DREGS
56 Reuben Droughns CLE - Good insurance for a better runner
57 T.J. Duckett WAS [UFA] - Could land in a better spot, but he's a long way from 1st round promise
58 Maurice Morris SEA
59 Michael Bennett KC
60 Ryan Moats PHI
61 Ciatrick Fason MIN
62 Samkon Gado HOU - Last November & December seem like so long ago
63 Dominic Rhodes IND [UFA]
64 Adrian Peterson CHI - I'd like to see what he could do with a few more carries
65 Noah Herron GB
66 Mike Anderson BAL - Old, but still producing when given a chance
67 Michael Robinson SF
68 Wali Lundy HOU - Strictly 3rd down material
69 Correll Buckhalter PHI
70 Artose Pinner MIN - 3 TDs against the Lions -- better than my 15 minutes
71 Maurice Hicks SF
72 Jason Wright CLE - Not the answer in CLE
73 Eric Shelton CAR - Flop
74 Kevan Barlow NYJ - Where to next? Done?
75 Jerome Harrison CLE - If he couldn't force his way onto the field this year, how good can he be?
76 Damien Nash DEN
77 Tyson Thompson DAL
78 Chris Taylor HOU
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD
2 Steven Jackson STL - LJ has TD edge, S-Jax has youth, receiving game, dome & better offense
3 Larry Johnson KC
4 Frank Gore SF
5 Reggie Bush NO
6 Willie Parker PIT
TIER TWO -- EVERY WEEK STARTERS WITH MINOR CONCERNS
7 Clinton Portis WAS - Will Ladell Betts steal carries in '07?
8 Brian Westbrook PHI - Due for an injury-plagued '07?
9 Ronnie Brown MIA - Steven Jackson-type talent, but labled by Saban "15-20 touches RB"
10 Shaun Alexander SEA - Value is seeping, 3.6 ypc in '06
11 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX - A more explosive Westbrook? Could be…
12 Rudi Johnson CIN - Poor receiver, ypc down in '06, starting to slip or poor line play?
13 Joseph Addai IND - Rhodes is UFA, will he or another back still dent value in '07?
14 Laurence Maroney NE - Will he have to share in '07?
TIER THREE -- LOW UPSIDE STARTERS OR YET TO TAKE THE LEAP
15 Willis McGahee BUF - Didn't look as explosive, but could bounce back to top 10-12
16 Deuce McAllister NO
17 DeAngelo Williams CAR - John Fox cost his team the playoffs by continuing to run Foster out there
18 Cedric Benson CHI - Headcase, but his time is coming soon
19 Cadillac Williams TB - Major questions heading into '07, TB offense is currently dead
20 #Kevin Jones DET - Ready for '07 start? Some reports say yes, some say significantly longer
21 Chester Taylor MIN - Career year? Or will he continue to be startable for a few years?
TIER FOUR -- HIGH UPSIDE W/ MAJOR QUESTION MARKS & AGING, BUT STILL HOLDING VALUE
22 Marion Barber III DAL - Will he continue in the same role, or keep usurping carries?
23 Julius Jones DAL - What's his future in Dallas?
24 Tatum Bell DEN - Will he start in '07? Must shake weak tag and fumbling issues
25 Jamal Lewis BAL* - Great value in '06, could be similar in '07 if he stays in Baltimore
26 Edgerrin James ARI - Re-gained some value late in season, still questions about goal-line work
27 LenDale White TEN - One more year of Travis Henry? Maturity questions?
28 Michael Turner SD [RFA] - May not start until '08, Chargers claim they will tender highest possible
29 Thomas Jones CHI - Benson taking more & more each week, what does '07 hold for Jones?
30 Brandon Jacobs NYG - Not good enough for full RB responsibility, will split with someone
31 Ahman Green GB [UFA] - Another great '06 value, will Morency continue to dent value?
32 Travis Henry TEN - Will he re-work contract to start again in '07?
33 Lamont Jordan OAK - Extremely tough to maintain any value in Oakland
TIER FIVE -- ROLE PLAYERS ANGLING FOR PROMOTION
34 Jerious Norwood ATL - I see change of pace more than every down stud
35 Ladell Betts WAS - Needs a Portis trade or injury to have much value
36 Fred Taylor JAX - Will he have the same role in JAX in '07? One more year?
37 Corey Dillon NE - Will he be back in NE? If not, what then?
38 Vernand Morency GB - RB of future in GB or simply role player? Needs a Green injury
39 Leon Washington NYJ - Likely 3rd down back ceiling, but Westbrook, MJD & Bush are inspiration
TIER SIX -- WILDCARDS
40 #Ricky Williams MIA - Quintessential wildcard, but is "free spirit" worth a dice roll?
41 Warrick Dunn ATL - On the downside
42 DeShaun Foster CAR - If he starts for your team, you're not good
43 Mike Bell DEN - Will probably be 2nd to someone in '07
44 Chris Brown TEN [UFA] - Forgettable '06, change of scenery would do him good
45 Ron Dayne HOU - Who's going to fall for it this year? Texans might…will you?
46 J.J. Arrington ARI - 2nd rounder's one opportunity was less than ideal
47 Musa Smith BAL - Talented, liked by Billick, but just too injury-prone
48 #Brian Calhoun DET - Poor timing with Jones' injury, not likely to be ready to take reigns in Sept.
49 Mewelde Moore MIN - Fantastic in passing game, needs to improve blocking to help value
50 Chris Perry CIN - Great in passing game, way too brittle, not the future in Cincy
51 Justin Fargas OAK - Mentioned as possible '07 starter, but I find that hard to believe
52 Greg Jones JAX - If Taylor leaves, could be MJD's Thunder
53 Najeh Davenport PIT - Big & quick, but where has that gotten him? Not PIT's goal-line back
54 #Domanick Williams HOU* - He says he'll be healthy, many are dubious he'll even play again
55 Cedric Houston NYJ - Poor ypc but nose for end zone and improvement toward year's end
TIER SEVEN -- BACK-UPS, LOW UPSIDE VETERANS & ALL-AROUND DREGS
56 Reuben Droughns CLE - Good insurance for a better runner
57 T.J. Duckett WAS [UFA] - Could land in a better spot, but he's a long way from 1st round promise
58 Maurice Morris SEA
59 Michael Bennett KC
60 Ryan Moats PHI
61 Ciatrick Fason MIN
62 Samkon Gado HOU - Last November & December seem like so long ago
63 Dominic Rhodes IND [UFA]
64 Adrian Peterson CHI - I'd like to see what he could do with a few more carries
65 Noah Herron GB
66 Mike Anderson BAL - Old, but still producing when given a chance
67 Michael Robinson SF
68 Wali Lundy HOU - Strictly 3rd down material
69 Correll Buckhalter PHI
70 Artose Pinner MIN - 3 TDs against the Lions -- better than my 15 minutes
71 Maurice Hicks SF
72 Jason Wright CLE - Not the answer in CLE
73 Eric Shelton CAR - Flop
74 Kevan Barlow NYJ - Where to next? Done?
75 Jerome Harrison CLE - If he couldn't force his way onto the field this year, how good can he be?
76 Damien Nash DEN
77 Tyson Thompson DAL
78 Chris Taylor HOU
GREAT work F&L.
comments to come.
comments to come.
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
WIDE RECEIVERS
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 Larry Fitzgerald ARI - Good young QB, heavily targeted weekly, possession WR + mega-redzone threat
2 Steve Smith CAR - Would be #1 if CAR QB situation was more stable
3 Chad Johnson CIN - Could be #1 with more consistency
4 Torry Holt STL - Is he starting to slip? Or just a relatively down season?
5 Reggie Wayne IND
6 Andre Johnson HOU - A QB change could bring back the early '06 Johnson
7 Lee Evans BUF - Losman's improvement has showcased Evans' all-around game
8 Roy Williams DET - Will he have a rookie QB messing with his value soon?
TIER TWO -- MINOR QUIBBLES
9 Marvin Harrison IND - Every year written off as ready to fall apart, #1 WR in my league in '06…again
10 Anquan Boldin ARI - Practically disappeared 2nd half of season, I think clear #2 to Fitz
11 Hines Ward PIT - Drastically underrated year in and year out
12 Javon Walker DEN - Could be higher, I need to see more of Cutler
13 Marques Colston NO - Will climb further if he can avoid pitfalls of sophomore slump
14 Darrell Jackson SEA - Injuries are starting to become a valid concern
15 Terrell Owens DAL - Aging, will he be back in Dallas? If not, where?
16 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN - Career year? Or Reggie Wayne to Johnson's Marvin Harrison?
17 Donald Driver GB - Depending on Favre, could jump up a few spots or could freefall
TIER THREE -- FLAWED?
18 Plaxico Burress NYG - High knucklehead factor, tends to disappear at times
19 Randy Moss OAK* - No doubt he's hit rock bottom, but I'd gamble on him if traded
20 Santana Moss WAS - Inconsistency personified
21 Braylon Edwards CLE - Starting to look like a knucklehead, but could thrive with vet QB
22 Laveranues Coles NYJ - Great NFL WR, but he doesn't seem to find the end zone enough
23 Chris Chambers MIA - His hands aren't as bad as commonly stated here, but he certainly regressed in '06
24 Reggie Brown PHI - 3rd year WR leap? He keeps improving & more reliable than Stallworth
25 Mark Clayton BAL - Ditto on 3rd year WR leap? Now Ravens' #1 WR, came on late in '06
26 Donte Stallworth PHI - Tease must stay in PHI to maintain value, losing McNabb hurt vertical game
TIER FOUR -- HIGH UPSIDE, CAN THEY MAKE THE LEAP?
27 Vincent Jackson SD - Becoming a redzone monster, should take over for McCardell in '07
28 Matt Jones JAX - Has a great game then disappears for a couple, needs consistency
29 Greg Jennings GB - Looked great early, production hampered by ankle injury late, Favre?
30 Santonio Holmes PIT - Came on strong to end the season, looks great after the catch
31 Brandon Marshall DEN - Physical, made some noise with Cutler, could take over for Rod Smith
TIER FIVE -- BORDERLINE STARTERS
32 Joey Galloway TB - Age a concern, but still very startable with steady QB play
33 Deion Branch SEA - Outplayed by D.J. Hackett after the trade -- not a good sign
34 Terry Glenn DAL - Knees? Age? Future? I'll let someone else deal with him
35 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ - Career year? Possibly…but looked good as possession WR
36 Drew Bennett TEN [UFA] - Possible team change could make him relevant again
37 Chris Henry CIN - Always a risk for suspension, but special talent
38 Bernard Berrian CHI - I think Mark Bradley may be better, but Berrian had an impressive arrival
39 Reche Caldwell NE - Do we really have to call him the #1 WR?
40 Muhsin Muhammad CHI - Age becoming a factor, but could still produce WR3 numbers with a good QB
TIER SIX -- PAST PRIME VETS & WANNABE STARTERS
41 Chad Jackson NE - Took a year to learn, can he step into starting lineup in '07
42 Devery Henderson NO - Boom or bust, needs to weed Horn out of the lineup
43 Reggie Williams JAX - Seems to have a high knucklehead factor, perennial disappointment
44 Derrick Mason BAL - Slipping…
45 Brandon Jones TEN - Vince Young's #1 WR? What's that worth?
46 Kevin Curtis STL [UFA] - Will he be back as the Rams #3? Will he start elsewhere?
47 Mike Furrey DET - Where do rank a guy like Furrey? '06 screams career year
48 Isaac Bruce STL - I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him weekly
49 Ronald Curry OAK - Coming on very strong, great ability, injury prone, alas Oakland
50 Joe Horn NO - If he can't stay healthy, it's curtains…
51 Antonio Bryant SF - Extremely high knucklehead factor, somebody else's headache
52 Mark Bradley CHI - Healthy now, will see the field more in '07
53 Eddie Kennison KC - Borderline startable, but actually sat on waiver wire half the season in my league
54 Marty Booker MIA - Came on stronger late, but was actually only startable a couple of games
55 Keyshawn Johnson CAR - Close to the end, bye week filler
TIER SEVEN -- MEDIOCRE VETS & TALENTED BUT STILL RAW
56 D.J. Hackett SEA - Outplaying more heralded SEA WRs
57 Michael Clayton TB - Still living off rookie season
58 Arnaz Battle SF - Poor man's Hines Ward…what's that worth in fantasy football?
59 Jerry Porter OAK - Oakland: "There's no 'there' there."
60 Demetrius Williams BAL - Impressive as rookie 3rd WR, may start by 2008
61 Troy Willliamson MIN - Awesome speed, dreadful hands & reactions
62 Mike Williams DET - Knucklehead, but at least he saw the field finally
63 Patrick Crayton DAL - 3rd WR role probably suits him best
64 Ernest Wilford JAX [RFA] - Meh…
65 Michael Jenkins ATL - Good redzone weapon, poor all over the rest of the field
66 Joe Jurevicius CLE - Startable in spurts with good QB play
67 Bryant Johnson ARI - A fantasy starter on a different NFL team? Doubtful…
68 Sinorice Moss NYG - Wasted year
69 Nate Burleson SEA - What happened?
70 David Givens TEN - I think we've seen his best
71 Nate Washington PIT - Impressive as playmaking 3rd WR
72 Eric Moulds HOU - I wanna believe he's not done, would like to see him with a new QB
73 Hank Baskett PHI - Impressive pre-season, extremely impressive in Week 17 mop-up time
TIER EIGHT -- YOUNGSTERS, LOW UPSIDE VETS & ALL AROUND DREGS
74 #Koren Robinson GB
75 Drew Carter CAR [RFA]
76 Maurice Stovall TB
77 Marcus Robinson SEA
78 Ashley Lelie ATL [UFA]
79 Derek Hagan MIA
80 Roddy White ATL
81 Samie Parker KC
82 Doug Gabriel OAK
83 Wes Welker MIA [UFA]
84 Antwaan Randle El WAS
85 Terrance Copper NO
86 Brad Smith NYJ
87 Ruvell Martin GB
88 Rod Smith DEN
89 Bobby Engram SEA
90 #Amani Toomer NYG
91 #Brandon Stokley IND
92 Johnnie Morant OAK
93 Travis Wilson CLE
94 Jason Avant PHI
TIER ONE -- EVERY WEEK STUDS
1 Larry Fitzgerald ARI - Good young QB, heavily targeted weekly, possession WR + mega-redzone threat
2 Steve Smith CAR - Would be #1 if CAR QB situation was more stable
3 Chad Johnson CIN - Could be #1 with more consistency
4 Torry Holt STL - Is he starting to slip? Or just a relatively down season?
5 Reggie Wayne IND
6 Andre Johnson HOU - A QB change could bring back the early '06 Johnson
7 Lee Evans BUF - Losman's improvement has showcased Evans' all-around game
8 Roy Williams DET - Will he have a rookie QB messing with his value soon?
TIER TWO -- MINOR QUIBBLES
9 Marvin Harrison IND - Every year written off as ready to fall apart, #1 WR in my league in '06…again
10 Anquan Boldin ARI - Practically disappeared 2nd half of season, I think clear #2 to Fitz
11 Hines Ward PIT - Drastically underrated year in and year out
12 Javon Walker DEN - Could be higher, I need to see more of Cutler
13 Marques Colston NO - Will climb further if he can avoid pitfalls of sophomore slump
14 Darrell Jackson SEA - Injuries are starting to become a valid concern
15 Terrell Owens DAL - Aging, will he be back in Dallas? If not, where?
16 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN - Career year? Or Reggie Wayne to Johnson's Marvin Harrison?
17 Donald Driver GB - Depending on Favre, could jump up a few spots or could freefall
TIER THREE -- FLAWED?
18 Plaxico Burress NYG - High knucklehead factor, tends to disappear at times
19 Randy Moss OAK* - No doubt he's hit rock bottom, but I'd gamble on him if traded
20 Santana Moss WAS - Inconsistency personified
21 Braylon Edwards CLE - Starting to look like a knucklehead, but could thrive with vet QB
22 Laveranues Coles NYJ - Great NFL WR, but he doesn't seem to find the end zone enough
23 Chris Chambers MIA - His hands aren't as bad as commonly stated here, but he certainly regressed in '06
24 Reggie Brown PHI - 3rd year WR leap? He keeps improving & more reliable than Stallworth
25 Mark Clayton BAL - Ditto on 3rd year WR leap? Now Ravens' #1 WR, came on late in '06
26 Donte Stallworth PHI - Tease must stay in PHI to maintain value, losing McNabb hurt vertical game
TIER FOUR -- HIGH UPSIDE, CAN THEY MAKE THE LEAP?
27 Vincent Jackson SD - Becoming a redzone monster, should take over for McCardell in '07
28 Matt Jones JAX - Has a great game then disappears for a couple, needs consistency
29 Greg Jennings GB - Looked great early, production hampered by ankle injury late, Favre?
30 Santonio Holmes PIT - Came on strong to end the season, looks great after the catch
31 Brandon Marshall DEN - Physical, made some noise with Cutler, could take over for Rod Smith
TIER FIVE -- BORDERLINE STARTERS
32 Joey Galloway TB - Age a concern, but still very startable with steady QB play
33 Deion Branch SEA - Outplayed by D.J. Hackett after the trade -- not a good sign
34 Terry Glenn DAL - Knees? Age? Future? I'll let someone else deal with him
35 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ - Career year? Possibly…but looked good as possession WR
36 Drew Bennett TEN [UFA] - Possible team change could make him relevant again
37 Chris Henry CIN - Always a risk for suspension, but special talent
38 Bernard Berrian CHI - I think Mark Bradley may be better, but Berrian had an impressive arrival
39 Reche Caldwell NE - Do we really have to call him the #1 WR?
40 Muhsin Muhammad CHI - Age becoming a factor, but could still produce WR3 numbers with a good QB
TIER SIX -- PAST PRIME VETS & WANNABE STARTERS
41 Chad Jackson NE - Took a year to learn, can he step into starting lineup in '07
42 Devery Henderson NO - Boom or bust, needs to weed Horn out of the lineup
43 Reggie Williams JAX - Seems to have a high knucklehead factor, perennial disappointment
44 Derrick Mason BAL - Slipping…
45 Brandon Jones TEN - Vince Young's #1 WR? What's that worth?
46 Kevin Curtis STL [UFA] - Will he be back as the Rams #3? Will he start elsewhere?
47 Mike Furrey DET - Where do rank a guy like Furrey? '06 screams career year
48 Isaac Bruce STL - I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him weekly
49 Ronald Curry OAK - Coming on very strong, great ability, injury prone, alas Oakland
50 Joe Horn NO - If he can't stay healthy, it's curtains…
51 Antonio Bryant SF - Extremely high knucklehead factor, somebody else's headache
52 Mark Bradley CHI - Healthy now, will see the field more in '07
53 Eddie Kennison KC - Borderline startable, but actually sat on waiver wire half the season in my league
54 Marty Booker MIA - Came on stronger late, but was actually only startable a couple of games
55 Keyshawn Johnson CAR - Close to the end, bye week filler
TIER SEVEN -- MEDIOCRE VETS & TALENTED BUT STILL RAW
56 D.J. Hackett SEA - Outplaying more heralded SEA WRs
57 Michael Clayton TB - Still living off rookie season
58 Arnaz Battle SF - Poor man's Hines Ward…what's that worth in fantasy football?
59 Jerry Porter OAK - Oakland: "There's no 'there' there."
60 Demetrius Williams BAL - Impressive as rookie 3rd WR, may start by 2008
61 Troy Willliamson MIN - Awesome speed, dreadful hands & reactions
62 Mike Williams DET - Knucklehead, but at least he saw the field finally
63 Patrick Crayton DAL - 3rd WR role probably suits him best
64 Ernest Wilford JAX [RFA] - Meh…
65 Michael Jenkins ATL - Good redzone weapon, poor all over the rest of the field
66 Joe Jurevicius CLE - Startable in spurts with good QB play
67 Bryant Johnson ARI - A fantasy starter on a different NFL team? Doubtful…
68 Sinorice Moss NYG - Wasted year
69 Nate Burleson SEA - What happened?
70 David Givens TEN - I think we've seen his best
71 Nate Washington PIT - Impressive as playmaking 3rd WR
72 Eric Moulds HOU - I wanna believe he's not done, would like to see him with a new QB
73 Hank Baskett PHI - Impressive pre-season, extremely impressive in Week 17 mop-up time
TIER EIGHT -- YOUNGSTERS, LOW UPSIDE VETS & ALL AROUND DREGS
74 #Koren Robinson GB
75 Drew Carter CAR [RFA]
76 Maurice Stovall TB
77 Marcus Robinson SEA
78 Ashley Lelie ATL [UFA]
79 Derek Hagan MIA
80 Roddy White ATL
81 Samie Parker KC
82 Doug Gabriel OAK
83 Wes Welker MIA [UFA]
84 Antwaan Randle El WAS
85 Terrance Copper NO
86 Brad Smith NYJ
87 Ruvell Martin GB
88 Rod Smith DEN
89 Bobby Engram SEA
90 #Amani Toomer NYG
91 #Brandon Stokley IND
92 Johnnie Morant OAK
93 Travis Wilson CLE
94 Jason Avant PHI
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him and without a shadow of a doubt has played better, no question.
You can say this about any QB, no?
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness?
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
If you've seen greatness in these player I need to keep my glasses on, cause I haven't seen it.
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 08:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness?
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
If you've seen greatness in these player I need to keep my glasses on, cause I haven't seen it.
Time for a new prescription?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:00 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
I'm simply answering your question and trying to get a reason for the Bulger ranking. Bulger finished #3 this year, only Manning and Brees are ranked higher. He also finished #4 in my fantasy league yet you say he's not greatness. You have him in Tier 3 behind some "unproven players" which you called greatness.
You're welcome.
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:07 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:00 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
I'm simply answering your question and trying to get a reason for the Bulger ranking. Bulger finished #3 this year, only Manning and Brees are ranked higher. He also finished #4 in my fantasy league yet you say he's not greatness. You have him in Tier 3 behind some "unproven players" which you called greatness.
You're welcome.
First of all, "right now" -- do you even play in dynasty leagues? Right now is far from the total picture in configuring value. You should know better than that.
Secondly, did you bother to read any of the discussion in this thread or did you just skim through the rankings to see which nits you could pick? Try about 15-20 posts up for an answer to your witty & oh-so-original Ben Roethlisberger rant.
Have you ever had "vision"? True vision?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:21 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:07 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:00 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
I'm simply answering your question and trying to get a reason for the Bulger ranking. Bulger finished #3 this year, only Manning and Brees are ranked higher. He also finished #4 in my fantasy league yet you say he's not greatness. You have him in Tier 3 behind some "unproven players" which you called greatness.
You're welcome.
First of all, "right now" -- do you even play in dynasty leagues? Right now is far from the total picture in configuring value. You should know better than that.
Secondly, did you bother to read any of the discussion in this thread or did you just skim through the rankings to see which nits you could pick? Try about 10 posts up for an answer to your witty & oh-so-original Ben Roethlisberger rant.
Have you ever had "vision"? True vision?
Yes sir, 7yr dynasty, why?
Yes I read the posting, I also saw the ranking of Bulger at a Tier 3 and some "unproven" players ranked ahead of him. You could certainly make the case for Rivers as a Tier 2 but the others are very questionable.
You stated that Bulger only had 24 TDs. Who's had more?
Bulger only had 8 ints, what QB has had less that has started 16 games?
When healthy Bulger throws around 4000yds and 20+TDs, I don't know what else you want.
I'm not arguing, I'm just making my case for the Bulger updated ranking and the players you have ranked over him.
You were the one that said "right now" not me.
I'd still like to know what greatness is to you and at what point do you consider a QB great.
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:21 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:07 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:00 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
I'm simply answering your question and trying to get a reason for the Bulger ranking. Bulger finished #3 this year, only Manning and Brees are ranked higher. He also finished #4 in my fantasy league yet you say he's not greatness. You have him in Tier 3 behind some "unproven players" which you called greatness.
You're welcome.
First of all, "right now" -- do you even play in dynasty leagues? Right now is far from the total picture in configuring value. You should know better than that.
Secondly, did you bother to read any of the discussion in this thread or did you just skim through the rankings to see which nits you could pick? Try about 10 posts up for an answer to your witty & oh-so-original Ben Roethlisberger rant.
Have you ever had "vision"? True vision?
Yes sir, 7yr dynasty, why?
Yes I read the posting, I also saw the ranking of Bulger at a Tier 3 and some "unproven" players ranked ahead of him. You could certainly make the case for Rivers as a Tier 2 but the others are very questionable.
You stated that Bulger only had 24 TDs. Who's had more?
Bulger only had 8 ints, what QB has had less that has started 16 games?
When healthy Bulger throws around 4000yds and 20+TDs, I don't know what else you want.
I'm not arguing, I'm just making my case for the Bulger updated ranking and the players you have ranked over him.
You were the one that said "right now" not me.
I'd still like to know what greatness is to you and at what point do you consider a QB great.
In an effort to bring this conversation to an end (please), let me say this: if this ranking wasn't based on 1-2-3-4, etc. and was instead based on thousands, Bulger would be a lot closer to the #6 QB than #12 QB. So part of this is a flaw of the simplistic system that I've picked. For example, it might better be reflected as Peyton Manning worth 1000, Palmer 900, Brees 840, Brady 815, McNabb 750, Vick 690, Young 665, Roethlisberger 640, Leinart 625, Rivers 610, Bulger 600, etc.
Regarding "Greatness": it doesn't really do you much good to figure out who is great after the fact.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 10:12 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:31 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:21 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 10:07 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 09:00 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:55 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 3 2007, 08:39 PM)
QUOTE (BigTex @ Jan 3 2007, 09:26 PM)
Bulger's ranking is Waaaaaaayyy offffff!
Bulger = Top 5
No way I'll take these guys over Bulger.
QUOTE
7 Vince Young TEN
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
9 Matt Leinart ARI
10 Philip Rivers SD
OK, I would.
Let me ask you this: Is Marc Bulger as good as he's going to get? I mean, he's in his prime, right? I think '04 - '06 is probably as good as it gets for Marc Bulger. He may be better in '07, he may be worse.
So how good is he right now? Career high passing TDs = 24. That's Tom Brady in an off year.
I'll tell you this much. I had Marc Bulger in a re-draft league this year, and I left him on the bench about half the games. What's the point of a top 5 QB if you're always looking for a better option?
Marc Bulger is a pretty good fantasy starter. I'm looking for greatness. I see greatness in Young, Roethlisberger, Leinart & Rivers. If I don't receive that greatness on my timetable, there's always a gullible owner overlooking the Favre, Kitna, Leftwich, etc. on their roster who are startable in the meantime.
Just a difference in style I guess.
He's better right now then the ones you've ranked over him.
Do you really see greatness in Young? How in his passing? TD? How many games must a QB start in order to see greatness? What's your definition of greatness.
Worthlessberger has been horrid and Pitt is a run first team.
Leinart has had some ups and down and really hasn't started enough.
River has been good not great.
Thanks for contributing to the thread.
I'm simply answering your question and trying to get a reason for the Bulger ranking. Bulger finished #3 this year, only Manning and Brees are ranked higher. He also finished #4 in my fantasy league yet you say he's not greatness. You have him in Tier 3 behind some "unproven players" which you called greatness.
You're welcome.
First of all, "right now" -- do you even play in dynasty leagues? Right now is far from the total picture in configuring value. You should know better than that.
Secondly, did you bother to read any of the discussion in this thread or did you just skim through the rankings to see which nits you could pick? Try about 10 posts up for an answer to your witty & oh-so-original Ben Roethlisberger rant.
Have you ever had "vision"? True vision?
Yes sir, 7yr dynasty, why?
Yes I read the posting, I also saw the ranking of Bulger at a Tier 3 and some "unproven" players ranked ahead of him. You could certainly make the case for Rivers as a Tier 2 but the others are very questionable.
You stated that Bulger only had 24 TDs. Who's had more?
Bulger only had 8 ints, what QB has had less that has started 16 games?
When healthy Bulger throws around 4000yds and 20+TDs, I don't know what else you want.
I'm not arguing, I'm just making my case for the Bulger updated ranking and the players you have ranked over him.
You were the one that said "right now" not me.
I'd still like to know what greatness is to you and at what point do you consider a QB great.
In an effort to bring this conversation to an end (please), let me say this: if this ranking wasn't based on 1-2-3-4, etc. and was instead based on thousands, Bulger would be a lot closer to the #6 QB than #12 QB. So part of this is a flaw of the simplistic system that I've picked. For example, it might better be reflected as Peyton Manning worth 1000, Palmer 900, Brees 840, Brady 815, McNabb 750, Vick 690, Young 665, Roethlisberger 640, Leinart 625, Rivers 610, Bulger 600, etc.
Regarding "Greatness": it doesn't really do you much good to figure out who is great after the fact.
"Greatness" came from YOU not me, I guess you have your reason.
Very nice job on the rankings...good read and quality commentary...
great job... i agreed with your take on many things...
not to beat a dead horse on bulger...
i do think many would rank him higher... as good as he did with martz, i think he set career highs in just about every major category, including starts (16), which was a big question... they could have an up 'n coming OL... you can make the case that jackson became focal point of offense increasingly as season wore on... OTOH, having a good running attack could benefit bulger & isn't necessarily a bad thing... jax is looking like a beast (you have him as #2 RB), which could mean more sustained drives, more red zone trips, etc... we have to keep in mind that this was the first season in a new system, & that alone would give reson to suspect he could do better in year 2-3, etc... it isn't like he is 35 & age is cause to suspect steep & imminent decline...
that said, always in dynasty there are relative preferences according to how much youth is valued... like you, i'm extremely high on prospects of guys like VY & leinart, and could see making case for them in top 10... jason wood wrote a phenomenal context piece in a weekly column month or so ago that showed how high up VY & leinart were on PPG basis rookie season in NFL HISTORY...
anyways, don't take this as nitpicking, very nice rankings, breakdown, analysis & commentary... looking forward to more of your work in the future... keep up the great work...
not to beat a dead horse on bulger...
i do think many would rank him higher... as good as he did with martz, i think he set career highs in just about every major category, including starts (16), which was a big question... they could have an up 'n coming OL... you can make the case that jackson became focal point of offense increasingly as season wore on... OTOH, having a good running attack could benefit bulger & isn't necessarily a bad thing... jax is looking like a beast (you have him as #2 RB), which could mean more sustained drives, more red zone trips, etc... we have to keep in mind that this was the first season in a new system, & that alone would give reson to suspect he could do better in year 2-3, etc... it isn't like he is 35 & age is cause to suspect steep & imminent decline...
that said, always in dynasty there are relative preferences according to how much youth is valued... like you, i'm extremely high on prospects of guys like VY & leinart, and could see making case for them in top 10... jason wood wrote a phenomenal context piece in a weekly column month or so ago that showed how high up VY & leinart were on PPG basis rookie season in NFL HISTORY...
anyways, don't take this as nitpicking, very nice rankings, breakdown, analysis & commentary... looking forward to more of your work in the future... keep up the great work...
Thanks for the solid ranking - I agree with most of your rankings but here are a few that I disagree with and the reasons I feel that way.
QB Leftwich at #15 - Is just too high - he seems to regress at times and teams have figured out how to stop him. His throwing motion is just too long which gives too much time for a DB to react - I have seen it several times where he has missed plays because he could not get the ball out fast enough. I also disagree that he is that much better than Garrard. I think in training camp this year it will be an open competition for the starting job (unless Leftwich gets traded).
RB Edge at #28 - Wow how the mighty have fallen. (just not this low). I would have him about 10 spots higher . I think his floor was this year but others seem to think he is making room for a second basement.
Remember he did rush for 1159 and scored 6 TD's. I think as ML matures it can only help his value in the future.
WR Brandon Jones at #45 - I think we are just starting to see his true potential coming back from his injury.
QB Leftwich at #15 - Is just too high - he seems to regress at times and teams have figured out how to stop him. His throwing motion is just too long which gives too much time for a DB to react - I have seen it several times where he has missed plays because he could not get the ball out fast enough. I also disagree that he is that much better than Garrard. I think in training camp this year it will be an open competition for the starting job (unless Leftwich gets traded).
RB Edge at #28 - Wow how the mighty have fallen. (just not this low). I would have him about 10 spots higher . I think his floor was this year but others seem to think he is making room for a second basement.
Remember he did rush for 1159 and scored 6 TD's. I think as ML matures it can only help his value in the future.
WR Brandon Jones at #45 - I think we are just starting to see his true potential coming back from his injury.
QUOTE (perry147 @ Jan 4 2007, 10:21 AM)
Thanks for the solid ranking - I agree with most of your rankings but here are a few that I disagree with and the reasons I feel that way.
QB Leftwich at #15 - Is just too high - he seems to regress at times and teams have figured out how to stop him. His throwing motion is just too long which gives too much time for a DB to react - I have seen it several times where he has missed plays because he could not get the ball out fast enough. I also disagree that he is that much better than Garrard. I think in training camp this year it will be an open competition for the starting job (unless Leftwich gets traded).
RB Edge at #28 - Wow how the mighty have fallen. (just not this low). I would have him about 10 spots higher . I think his floor was this year but others seem to think he is making room for a second basement.
Remember he did rush for 1159 and scored 6 TD's. I think as ML matures it can only help his value in the future.
WR Brandon Jones at #45 - I think we are just starting to see his true potential coming back from his injury.
QB Leftwich at #15 - Is just too high - he seems to regress at times and teams have figured out how to stop him. His throwing motion is just too long which gives too much time for a DB to react - I have seen it several times where he has missed plays because he could not get the ball out fast enough. I also disagree that he is that much better than Garrard. I think in training camp this year it will be an open competition for the starting job (unless Leftwich gets traded).
RB Edge at #28 - Wow how the mighty have fallen. (just not this low). I would have him about 10 spots higher . I think his floor was this year but others seem to think he is making room for a second basement.
Remember he did rush for 1159 and scored 6 TD's. I think as ML matures it can only help his value in the future.
WR Brandon Jones at #45 - I think we are just starting to see his true potential coming back from his injury.
Thanks for the feedback.
My thoughts on Leftwich can be found in a couple spots on this thread, but the cliffsnotes is as follows:
- Right after these rankings were finished, Mort came out reporting that JAX was likely to keep Leftwich. I was assuming he would head to another team which I also assumed would help his value. Even if he stays in JAX, there's still no QBs under 15 I like better than him.
- I think he is a franchise QB who has been given awful weapons and worked with poor playcalling in an offense ill-suited to his strengths.
- He does have a long wind-up, but I don't think that affects the DB's reaction time at all. What affects DBs is the poor receiving crew he's had to work with.
- He's shown smarts, accuracy, leadership, a big arm, few mistakes and a penchant for making big plays at crucial times
- He hasn't come through on many people's timetable. That's fine. I understand. You may have given up on him as a franchise QB. I have not...at all. I'm eager to see what he could do in an open offense more suited to his strengths and with quality skill position talent surrounding him.
- David Gerrard has mobility on Leftwich...and it's a huge advantage. But it's the only one. That's the list.
- The QBs after Leftwich aren't that impressive. I just don't see anyone who would merit being ranked ahead of him.
In addition to Edge's horrific yards per carry average, he has been getting pulled at the goal-line for Marcel Shipp. Now I realize Denny Green's departure may change things, but that's a major indictment of Edge's short yardage problems of the past couple of seasons. Additionally, one of the major precursors to a significant decline in a RBs production is a sizable falloff in the passing game. Edge has really lost a few steps in the passing game to the point where he's below average now. I don't see much difference between Edge & Jamal Lewis anymore...or Ahman Green for that matter. I think Ahman is actually a better NFL & fantasy RB right now (just not a more reliable one due to health issues), and Jamal Lewis is a full year younger. Edge only has a couple of years left before he's done. If he's a borderline fantasy starter at best in those two years, he's not going to hold much value.
So you would have Brandon Jones higher than 45? I know he's a trendy pick to make some noise soon, but I'm still skeptical. As much as I like Vince Young as a fantasy QB, he's still going to be a hindrance to his WRs' passing numbers for a few years...and that's assuming Brandon Jones will actually end up the #1 WR in Tennessee sometime soon. It's not like Jones had a great college pedigree or early NFL success. He's still long on potential and short on results. I like Jones a bit too, but I haven't seen anything that would get me overly excited about his potential for meaningful production the next couple of seasons.
QUOTE (Bob_Magaw @ Jan 4 2007, 12:37 AM)
great job... i agreed with your take on many things...
not to beat a dead horse on bulger...
i do think many would rank him higher... as good as he did with martz, i think he set career highs in just about every major category, including starts (16), which was a big question... they could have an up 'n coming OL... you can make the case that jackson became focal point of offense increasingly as season wore on... OTOH, having a good running attack could benefit bulger & isn't necessarily a bad thing... jax is looking like a beast (you have him as #2 RB), which could mean more sustained drives, more red zone trips, etc... we have to keep in mind that this was the first season in a new system, & that alone would give reson to suspect he could do better in year 2-3, etc... it isn't like he is 35 & age is cause to suspect steep & imminent decline...
that said, always in dynasty there are relative preferences according to how much youth is valued... like you, i'm extremely high on prospects of guys like VY & leinart, and could see making case for them in top 10... jason wood wrote a phenomenal context piece in a weekly column month or so ago that showed how high up VY & leinart were on PPG basis rookie season in NFL HISTORY...
anyways, don't take this as nitpicking, very nice rankings, breakdown, analysis & commentary... looking forward to more of your work in the future... keep up the great work...
not to beat a dead horse on bulger...
i do think many would rank him higher... as good as he did with martz, i think he set career highs in just about every major category, including starts (16), which was a big question... they could have an up 'n coming OL... you can make the case that jackson became focal point of offense increasingly as season wore on... OTOH, having a good running attack could benefit bulger & isn't necessarily a bad thing... jax is looking like a beast (you have him as #2 RB), which could mean more sustained drives, more red zone trips, etc... we have to keep in mind that this was the first season in a new system, & that alone would give reson to suspect he could do better in year 2-3, etc... it isn't like he is 35 & age is cause to suspect steep & imminent decline...
that said, always in dynasty there are relative preferences according to how much youth is valued... like you, i'm extremely high on prospects of guys like VY & leinart, and could see making case for them in top 10... jason wood wrote a phenomenal context piece in a weekly column month or so ago that showed how high up VY & leinart were on PPG basis rookie season in NFL HISTORY...
anyways, don't take this as nitpicking, very nice rankings, breakdown, analysis & commentary... looking forward to more of your work in the future... keep up the great work...
Bob, thanks for the kudos.
I agree that many would have Bulger ranked higher. And I think I probably got too cute with my "tiers" in these rankings. I think if I had a different numerical system, Bulger would probably be closer to the #6 QB than the #13 QB.
I do think the offense found its identity with Steven Jackson. Not only that but Isaac Bruce isn't going to be producing above average #2 WR numbers much longer, and we could be seeing a slight slide out of Holt from Top 5 WR to Top 15 WR. Two further factors: 1] the Rams passing game continues to stumble in the redzone under Marc Bulger and 2] though he stayed healthy this season, he has been an injury risk in the past (so you could reasonably say he's due in 2007).
Like you referenced with the Jason Wood piece on VY & Leinart, the greatness that I've said I'm seeing in them is backed up by historically impressive rookie production (along with elite college pedigrees). And we all know Roethlisberger's NFL start was even more impressive. I like to bet on talent in dynasty leagues, and these 3 QBs are no-doubt special talents.
Re: Rivers placement at #10 -- as I've mentioned throughout this thread, these rankings are geared toward playoff leagues. Rivers has tremendous value the next few years in playoff leagues due to his situation. I was certainly factoring that in above.
Again, thanks for the encouraging words.
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