Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Monday, December 31, 2007

Original FBG Dynasty Rankings Thread | Page 4

Ryan_21
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 03:12 PM) *
QUOTE (J-Rock @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 PM) *

Didn't read the whole thread so this may or may not have been covered.

How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)

Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.

I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.


Well thanks for jumping in even though you didn't bother to read the whole thread. Sorry, just a bit touchy when somebody basically says: "your opinion isn't important enough to read, but you should listen to mine anyway."

Do you play in a dynasty league? If you do, you would certainly realize that the potential you mentioned with Leinart is worth a lot in dynasty and "proof" isn't nearly as important as it is in a redraft league...regardless of whether you actually believe Smith has shown more "proof" than Leinart at this point (which is debatable).

As Sigmund already mentioned, Leinart's career start is leaps and bounds better than the trainwreck that was Alex Smith just about every start in his rookie season.

Other relevant points: I thought Leinart was a better player coming into the league than Smith. His WRs are head and shoulders above Smith's. I think he'll have a much better career than Smith. So why would I rank Smith ahead of Leinart in a dynasty league?




Alex Smith was 20 years old coming into the league. Leinart was 23. Smith is still younger than Leinart and if he stayed in school as long as Leinart did Smith would still be playing college ball this year. People reference Smiths disasterous rookie year but fail to realize that with his age he was the equivelant to a true Junior in college, playing in the NFL.
ILoveMyLions
23 Julius Jones DAL - What's his future in Dallas?
24 LenDale White TEN - One more year of Travis Henry? Maturity questions?
25 Michael Turner SD [RFA] - May not start until '08, Chargers claim they will tender highest possible

I'm curious about the above guys you have ranked in Tier 4.

With J. Jones, do you see him being able to keep a job in the near future with Barber becoming more and more a part of the offense? #23 is about right, but I am trying to avoid him in my leagues.

With White, you have him ranked much higher than most other people on this board. (He seems to be somewhere around 29-34 on most rankings) I'd just like to hear more of your thoughts on him.

Finally, with Turner, how high up do you move him if he does play for a team next year? Would be move in that 15-20 range if he were starting no matter for what team?

Thanks...
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (ILoveMyLions @ Jan 6 2007, 10:57 AM) *
23 Julius Jones DAL - What's his future in Dallas?
24 LenDale White TEN - One more year of Travis Henry? Maturity questions?
25 Michael Turner SD [RFA] - May not start until '08, Chargers claim they will tender highest possible

I'm curious about the above guys you have ranked in Tier 4.

With J. Jones, do you see him being able to keep a job in the near future with Barber becoming more and more a part of the offense? #23 is about right, but I am trying to avoid him in my leagues.

With White, you have him ranked much higher than most other people on this board. (He seems to be somewhere around 29-34 on most rankings) I'd just like to hear more of your thoughts on him.

Finally, with Turner, how high up do you move him if he does play for a team next year? Would be move in that 15-20 range if he were starting no matter for what team?

Thanks...


These guy are tricky to rank because of the questions surrounding their situation and opportunity.

Here's where I differ with many people on Barber/Jones: I don't expect either one to take over full-time for the Cowboys. If Parcells stays on, I think we'll see more of the same. If another coach takes over, I don't think that signals a change to Barber as the starting RB. I think there are things Barber does better than Jones, but there are also things Jones does better than Barber. Barring a trade, I don't see either back becoming "the man."

I don't think I have White ranked much higher. Most have him around 30, I have him around 25. I don't see much of a discrepancy at all. I can tell you that I've had Jamal Lewis & Ahman Green on my roster this year, and I know I couldn't get White for either of them (if I wanted to). I read a report recently that speculated White & Henry would split time next season as long as White adds maturity to his game. If I had to guess, this will take on a Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson feel with Henry holding him off for another year, but White flashing his superior talent when he gets a chance to play.

Turner's value depends almost entirely on who he plays for. If the Chargers do keep him, he'll probably slide down a few spots because he'd be strictly bench material for another season. If he gets traded or signs on with another team, it depends on that team's situation. If he signed on in a dream spot, he'd move up at least in the 15 range. If he signed on to split carries somewhere, it would be hard to move him up too far. Turner's value is just too hazy until we find out where he's going to play.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Ryan_21 @ Jan 6 2007, 02:02 AM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 1 2006, 03:12 PM) *

QUOTE (J-Rock @ Nov 1 2006, 02:45 PM) *

Didn't read the whole thread so this may or may not have been covered.

How is Leinart ranked #7 while Alex Smith is only #17? I know I'm a niners homer but c'mon. (for the record, I own both of them in my dynasty)

Alex has proven himself to be a solid FFB QB. The SF D is gives up a lot of points which means Smith throws a ton of passes and he has proven he can put up the numbers. Leinart has 3 starts under his belt and hasn't looked nearly as good in them as Smith.

I was devistated when Leinart returned to SC instrad of becoming SF's #1 pick in 05 but I really think Smith is going to be a solid QB in this league. long term Leinart has the potential to be a better QB but as far as proof at this point Smith deserves higher ranking tha Leinart IMO.


Well thanks for jumping in even though you didn't bother to read the whole thread. Sorry, just a bit touchy when somebody basically says: "your opinion isn't important enough to read, but you should listen to mine anyway."

Do you play in a dynasty league? If you do, you would certainly realize that the potential you mentioned with Leinart is worth a lot in dynasty and "proof" isn't nearly as important as it is in a redraft league...regardless of whether you actually believe Smith has shown more "proof" than Leinart at this point (which is debatable).

As Sigmund already mentioned, Leinart's career start is leaps and bounds better than the trainwreck that was Alex Smith just about every start in his rookie season.

Other relevant points: I thought Leinart was a better player coming into the league than Smith. His WRs are head and shoulders above Smith's. I think he'll have a much better career than Smith. So why would I rank Smith ahead of Leinart in a dynasty league?




Alex Smith was 20 years old coming into the league. Leinart was 23. Smith is still younger than Leinart and if he stayed in school as long as Leinart did Smith would still be playing college ball this year. People reference Smiths disasterous rookie year but fail to realize that with his age he was the equivelant to a true Junior in college, playing in the NFL.


I have kept Smith's age in mind all along. That doesn't change the fact that he had a disastrous rookie season. He did bounce back this year, and though it was an extremely uneven season, he did improve by leaps and bounds.

I think with Smith the dilemma is that he's certainly not fantasy starting QB material yet, nor can I picture him being starter material next season....whereas I do think Young, Leinart, Roethlisberger & Rivers are starting caliber in '07. So if you're not going to have him on your roster as a starter, you're going to have him as your high upside back-up. I prefer Leftwich or Cutler in that role, but I can see why others would go with Smith considering his youth and high draft position.
Couch Potato
F&L:

When you copied your new 1/3 rankings to post #1, the old Tight End rankings were deleted but no new TE rankings replaced them. Are new TE rankings in the works?
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Jan 6 2007, 08:46 PM) *
F&L:

When you copied your new 1/3 rankings to post #1, the old Tight End rankings were deleted but no new TE rankings replaced them. Are new TE rankings in the works?


Sorry, yes. I'll have TE, K & D later tonight hopefully. I was working on a music piece and had to put football on the back-burner for a day or two.
zamboni
Looks like Addai warrants a bump up. The guy's a player and seems in line to carry a hefty workload next year.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (zamboni @ Jan 6 2007, 08:56 PM) *
Looks like Addai warrants a bump up. The guy's a player and seems in line to carry a hefty workload next year.


I don't disagree. Who are you going to bump down?
fruity pebbles
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 6 2007, 09:35 PM) *
QUOTE (zamboni @ Jan 6 2007, 08:56 PM) *

Looks like Addai warrants a bump up. The guy's a player and seems in line to carry a hefty workload next year.


I don't disagree. Who are you going to bump down?


Alexander keeps looking like garbage.
Fear & Loathing
Tight Ends, Kickers & Defenses below.

Also, made a slight adjustment in the QB tiers while moving Bulger ahead of Rivers to #10 and adding a note on Rivers' value in playoff leagues. Flip-flopped McGahee & Deuce McAllister in the RB rankings. Will also give some thought to moving Addai up if I can figure out who to drop below him.

Not crazy about the order of the Top 10 TE's. I think the top 10 at this position is so close that it's more about personal preference than the other positions are.


TIGHT ENDS

TIER ONE -- 12 STARTERS FOR 12 TEAMS
1 Antonio Gates SD - Easy #1
2 Kellen Winslow II CLE - Lack of production with Anderson at QB is slightly worrisome
3 Todd Heap BAL - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant injuries
4 Vernon Davis SF - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
5 Alge Crumpler ATL - Constantly overlooked by...me, but he keeps producing
6 Tony Gonzalez KC [UFA] - Likely to stay in KC, top-notch for at least another year or two
7 Ben Watson NE - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency, #4 in yards per game
8 Chris Cooley WAS - Steady
9 Jeremy Shockey NYG - Weekly injuries & Eli's mojo loss dampen his future outlook for me
10 Jason Witten DAL - Must find the end zone more often
11 Heath Miller PIT - Impressive rookie season, but not much improvement this year
12 L.J. Smith PHI - Not overly exciting, but he produces most weeks

TIER TWO -- THE REST
13 Tony Scheffler DEN - Great rapport with Cutler, future is bright
14 Randy McMichael MIA - Steadily boring
15 Dallas Clark IND - He always seems to disappoint me, but I continue to rank him 15th
16 Ben Troupe TEN - I still believe in his talent, TE's often take longer to find their niche
17 Marcedes Lewis JAX - Needs to take a big step forward in '07
18 Jerramy Stevens SEA [FA?] - Knucklehead factor through the roof
19 Desmond Clark CHI - Career year
20 Alex Smith TB - When will we find out how good he is?
21 Owen Daniels HOU - Sage Rosenfels' #1 receiver…so he's got that going for him
22 Eric Johnson SF [UFA] - Could wind up in a beneficial situation
23 Daniel Graham NE [UFA] - Ditto, but a much better blocker & not as good of a receiver
24 Dave Thomas NE - Looked good in a couple games late in the season, takes Graham's place
25 Joe Klopfenstein STL
26 Kris Wilson KC - Would thrive if Gonzalez left
27 Jermaine Wiggins MIN* - Five yards at a time…
28 Leonard Pope ARI
29 George Wrighster JAX - Looks like a career year with Lewis ready to take more work
30 Ben Utecht IND [RFA]
31 Chris Baker NYJ
32 Bo Scaife TEN - Couldn't take advantage of Troupe's absence
33 Daniel Wilcox BAL
34 Delanie Walker SF
35 Jeff King CAR
36 Anthony Fasano DAL
37 Dan Campbell DET
38 Dominique Byrd STL
39 Randal Williams OAK


KICKERS

1 Adam Vinatieri IND
2 Nate Kaeding SD
3 Shayne Graham CIN
4 Jeff Wilkins STL
5 David Akers PHI
6 Robbie Gould CHI
7 Josh Brown SEA [UFA]
8 Neil Rackers ARI
9 Matt Stover BAL
10 Jason Elam DEN
11 Josh Scobee JAX [RFA]
12 Jeff Reed PIT
13 Stephen Gostkowski NE
14 John Carney NO
15 Mike Nugent NYJ
16 Lawrence Tynes KC [UFA]
17 Jay Feely NYG
18 John Kasay CAR
19 Martin Gramatica DAL
20 Rob Bironas TEN
21 Ryan Longwell MIN
22 Dave Rayner GB
23 Jason Hanson DET
24 Rian Lindell BUF
25 Olindo Mare MIA
26 Joe Nedney SF
27 Phil Dawson CLE
28 Sebastian Janikowski OAK
29 Shaun Suisham WAS
30 Matt Bryant TB
31 Kris Brown HOU
32 Morten Andersen ATL [UFA]
33 Mike Vanderjagt
34 Billy Cundiff


DEFENSES

1 Bears CHI
2 Chargers SD
3 Ravens BAL
4 Patriots NE
5 Eagles PHI
6 Jaguars JAX
7 Panthers CAR
8 Seahawks SEA
9 Steelers PIT
10 Titans TEN
11 Cowboys DAL
12 Vikings MIN
13 Bills BUF
14 Raiders OAK
15 Dolphins MIA
16 Broncos DEN
17 Packers GB
18 Jets NYJ
19 Saints NO
20 Bengals CIN
21 Colts IND
22 Giants NYG
23 Chiefs KC
24 Falcons ATL
25 Cardinals ARI
26 Buccaneers TB
27 Lions DET
28 Browns CLE
29 Rams STL
30 Redskins WAS
31 Texans HOU
32 49ers SF
Fear & Loathing
TACKLING ROTOWORLD’S TOP 50 KEEPERS

Rotoworld’s Gregg Rosenthal has his Top 50 Keepers for 2007 out today. Before I tear into these rankings, I did want to mention that I think the quality of Rosenthal’s weekly analysis is as impressive as any you will find online. He rightly drew some fire after his mid-season suggestion to trade Larry Johnson. Unfortunately, that gaffe has overshadowed the top-notch work that Rosenthal consistently produces in keeping rotoworld’s football analysis helpful and informative while their baseball side continues to trot out predictable sabermetric clich├ęs in lieu of fresh analysis.

On to the rankings…

The first surprise is Larry Johnson at #4 with Frank Gore at #3, largely because of the injury risk to Johnson after his record breaking 416 carries. Though you could see an anti-L.J. bias from Rosenthal if you strained hard enough, I don’t have much of a problem with this ranking. L.J. may well be a injury risk heading into ’07, and anybody who watched Frank Gore run this year had to come away extremely impressed.

Laurence Maroney comes in at #9 overall riding the conventional wisdom that Corey Dillon will move on in ’07. Considering Dillon’s contract situation, I was on board with this thinking right up until the past couple of weeks. I’ve seen another mention from rotoworld referencing Dillon’s mere 19 snaps on Sunday and connecting the dots to assume this means the full transition to a Maroney-fied running game in the future. I know I’m going against the grain here, but I think Dillon’s contract will be re-worked to keep him in New England for another season. Belichik loves him and he’s been a hard worker in addition to being an extremely valuable piece of the puzzle for the past 3 Pats playoff teams. He’s not likely to get paid elsewhere, so it makes sense that he’ll be back for at least one more season (or a string of "one more" a la Troy Brown) to help soften up defenses for Maroney’s more explosive legs. While Maroney will see more work going forward, I think Dillon will stay for another year and continue to dampen Maroney’s value just a bit.

Chester Taylor #11 vs. Peyton Manning #16. No way. I see 2006 clearly flashing career year for Chester Taylor. Even if you believe there’s more of the same in store for Taylor in ‘07, I just don’t see how you could keep him over a yearly difference maker like Peyton. It’s simply nonsensical. Throw in Taylor’s goal-line questions and the fact that Mewelde Moore is a much stronger option in the passing game, and I think signs point to Taylor’s role being scaled back in the future. Success in fantasy football depends on impact players. It’s the difference between a great player versus simply a one-time great season. Great players are great because they produce great seasons year in and year out.

Brandon Jacobs is ranked #28 -- right in front of Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans & Carson Palmer. To Rosenthal’s credit he does explain that Jacobs ranking will “sink out of the top 50 if and when the Giants add a committee partner”. That’s a wise caveat. Unfortunately, he finishes with “for now, he’s tough not to retain.” So if you had to turn in your keepers now, you should assume Jacobs is 28th in value? Even though you believe they’ll sign, draft or trade for somebody to kill his value in the next couple of months? I’m not following the logic here. I think it’s a virtual certainty that the Giants will pair Jacobs with another runner (and Rosenthal appears to believe the same). That being the case he has to be ranked accordingly, which makes 28th overall a pipedream.

Lamont Jordan is 34th -- ahead of T.O., Gates, Edgerrin James, Brees, Bulger, McNabb and many others. Even if you wanted to give the production-draining Raiders franchise a pass because of their coaching change, it doesn’t change the fact that Jordan’s 3.8 YPC in each of the past two seasons bodes poorly for 2007. Jordan’s impressive 2005 season was heavily reliant on the passing game. While I haven’t done extensive research on the subject, anecdotal evidence suggests that relying on a RB’s receving numbers to carry over through coaching changes is unreliable at best and foolish at worst. To top it all off, the season’s end brought suggestions that the Raiders may be willing to cut Jordan loose leaving them with a less than appetizing Justin Fargas as their main RB. I don’t believe it either, but it shows just how far Jordan has fallen.

Leon Washington is actually ranked in the top 50 overall. This fact is shocking enough before seeing the names he leaves in the dust: Darrell Jackson, Donald Driver, Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Michael Vick, Tom Brady and Hines Ward. If you keep Leon Washington ahead of any of those players, you deserve whatever losing fate awaits you. If anything was clear from the Jets-Pats game this past weekend, it’s that Leon Washington makes for a grade-A 3rd down back. If he’s your #1 back, you have no rushing attack. The Jets know this. Rosenthal should as well.

I was going to jump on Jerious Norwood’s #46 overall ranking but after seeing Leon Washington at #44, I’m afraid I’d feel like I was just picking nits on Norwood. I don’t see him as the every down stud RB that Atlanta will need going forward, but I do think he has a much better chance to come in at #46 than Washington does at #44.

That’s it for specific rankings, but I did want to address one of Rosenthal’s opening statements which reads, “Because of the uncertainty in so many backfields, top wideouts and quarterbacks are ranked higher in early January rankings because their value is stable.” That makes sense, right? Of course it does. Then why do the rankings in fact reflect the exact opposite? The top 13 players are RBs. The first WR makes his appearance at #14. Peyton Manning shows up behind the aforementioned Chester Taylor along with guys like Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush. I won’t bore you with a repeat of the Jacobs/Jordan rankings, but these two far outrank several top 10 WRs.

Rosenthal’s finest work, this was not. Understandably, every analyst has off days. It’s the downside of putting your thoughts on record – just don’t tell Sean Salisbury.
fruity pebbles
Yeah, that article is questionable at best. Although I don't think Jacobs has to be a full time back to hold major value. If he even gets 200 carries he's going to be a borderline top 10 back. Leon Washington baffles me.
fornov
Great, great thread. I can't believe I haven't noticed this until now!?! Thanks for all the work you've put into these rankings.

Not that you need my blessing, but I completely agree with you about your "difference maker" arguement. That's why I've always felt most dynasty rankings put far too much value in RB's in the RB10-40 range. A top 5 QB (Brady, Palmer) or a top 10 WR (Holt, C Johnson, Harrison) is far more valuable than your typical RB20, IMO, simply because you know you have solid, consistent production every year.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (fornov @ Jan 10 2007, 12:46 AM) *
Great, great thread. I can't believe I haven't noticed this until now!?! Thanks for all the work you've put into these rankings.

Not that you need my blessing, but I completely agree with you about your "difference maker" arguement. That's why I've always felt most dynasty rankings put far too much value in RB's in the RB10-40 range. A top 5 QB (Brady, Palmer) or a top 10 WR (Holt, C Johnson, Harrison) is far more valuable than your typical RB20, IMO, simply because you know you have solid, consistent production every year.


Thanks for the kudos, fornov. Please join in and throw around your 2cents.gif wherever you see fit.

My gameplan on building a nucleus in dynasty leagues has always been to try to make sure I have one sure-fire top 5 RB. I've counted Steven Jackson as that guy for the past two seasons. From here, though, I tend to differ with a lot of dynasty owners. Once I have that one bell cow RB, then I make sure I have a top QB & a top WR before I worry about that 2nd RB spot.

Top QBs are extremely important in dynasty leagues because the top tier are so reliable from season to season. A front-line WR is money because he can produce for years in a position that has so much change beyond the top 10-15 from season to season.

RBs come and go with great frequency. I say find that one bulwark you can rely on and then use your imagination to find a solid RB2. i.e. last offseason, you could have traded for Frank Gore before he blew up, took advantage of Ahman Green's low value to give yourself a cheap weekly starter, packaged a couple of players for a then 12-15 ranked Brian Westbrook. You could have jumped all over Jamal Lewis at mid-season to solidify your RB2 over the rest of the season. Find a RB you have had faith in and pounce on him while his value is down. This method, though risky and overly-reliant on other owners (via trades), allows you to have your cake and eat it too by building a nucleus that neglects no important positions.
the_sig
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 11 2007, 01:13 PM) *
QUOTE (fornov @ Jan 10 2007, 12:46 AM) *

Great, great thread. I can't believe I haven't noticed this until now!?! Thanks for all the work you've put into these rankings.

Not that you need my blessing, but I completely agree with you about your "difference maker" arguement. That's why I've always felt most dynasty rankings put far too much value in RB's in the RB10-40 range. A top 5 QB (Brady, Palmer) or a top 10 WR (Holt, C Johnson, Harrison) is far more valuable than your typical RB20, IMO, simply because you know you have solid, consistent production every year.


Thanks for the kudos, fornov. Please join in and throw around your 2cents.gif wherever you see fit.

My gameplan on building a nucleus in dynasty leagues has always been to try to make sure I have one sure-fire top 5 RB. I've counted Steven Jackson as that guy for the past two seasons. From here, though, I tend to differ with a lot of dynasty owners. Once I have that one bell cow RB, then I make sure I have a top QB & a top WR before I worry about that 2nd RB spot.

Top QBs are extremely important in dynasty leagues because the top tier are so reliable from season to season. A front-line WR is money because he can produce for years in a position that has so much change beyond the top 10-15 from season to season.

RBs come and go with great frequency. I say find that one bulwark you can rely on and then use your imagination to find a solid RB2. i.e. last offseason, you could have traded for Frank Gore before he blew up, took advantage of Ahman Green's low value to give yourself a cheap weekly starter, packaged a couple of players for a then 12-15 ranked Brian Westbrook. You could have jumped all over Jamal Lewis at mid-season to solidify your RB2 over the rest of the season. Find a RB you have had faith in and pounce on him while his value is down. This method, though risky and overly-reliant on other owners (via trades), allows you to have your cake and eat it too by building a nucleus that neglects no important positions.

pigskinp.gif

Props to F&L. This has been a very informative post. I have been a longtime redraft owner, but just joined my first dynasty league which will be drafting in a few months. I have been trying to recalibrate my thinking process towards dynasty, and this post and its discussions have been an interesting read. The new dynasty I joined is a 14 team league. I was lucky enough to get the 1.03 draft slot. I had toyed with the thought of trading down for more picks, but the offers have been under whelming. Based on the offers I have had for 1.03, I think I'd be crazy not to draft SJax at 1.03 and never look back. I like the 'nucleus/difference maker' line of thinking you put forth, and feel SJax will be a great foundation.
Couch Potato
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 17 2007, 10:07 AM) *
Based on the offers I have had for 1.03, I think I'd be crazy not to draft SJax at 1.03 and never look back.


Just don't be surprised if he's off the board at 1.02. With a 4-year age difference and where they are on my production curve, I'd take him ahead of LJ if I were drafting.
the_sig
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ Jan 17 2007, 12:16 PM) *
QUOTE (the_sig @ Jan 17 2007, 10:07 AM) *
Based on the offers I have had for 1.03, I think I'd be crazy not to draft SJax at 1.03 and never look back.


Just don't be surprised if he's off the board at 1.02. With a 4-year age difference and where they are on my production curve, I'd take him ahead of LJ if I were drafting.


Yeah, I have considered that.
Fear & Loathing
Experiment time. Please join in if you have a strong feel for a situation below.

Handicapping the starting QB percentages as of Feb. 1st

AVAILABLE QB's:

DRAFT
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Drew Stanton
Troy Smith
Kevin Kolb

FREE AGENT
Matt Schaub [Restricted FA or via Trade]
Jeff Garcia
Damon Huard
Kerry Collins

TRADE
Jake Plummer [or FA after June 1st]
David Carr
David Garrard
Seneca Wallace [likely to stay in SEA one more year]

CUT CANDIDATES
Aaron Brooks
Drew Bledsoe
Patrick Ramsey
Brad Johnson
Mark Brunell
Joey Harrington
Tim Rattay
Trent Green


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: TOM BRADY
NEW YORK JETS: Chad Pennington - 85%, Kellen Clemens - 15%
BUFFALO BILLS: J.P. LOSMAN
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Daunte Culpepper - 80%, Cleo Lemon - 15%, Other - 5%

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Steve McNair - 97%, Kyle Boller - 3%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: BEN ROETHLISBERGER
CINCINNATI BENGALS: CARSON PALMER
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Charlie Frye - 35%, David Carr - 15%, Jake Plummer - 15%, Brady Quinn - 15%, Damon Huard - 8%, David Garrard - 8%, Patrick Ramsey - 3%, Derek Anderson - 1%

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: PEYTON MANNING
TENNESSEE TITANS: VINCE YOUNG
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Byron Leftwich - 66%, David Garrard - 33%, Quinn Gray - 1%
HOUSTON TEXANS: Jake Plummer - 40%, Brady Quinn - 20%, David Carr - 15%, Sage Rosenfels - 8%, David Garrard - 5%, Matt Schaub - 5%, Jeff Garcia - 5%, Damon Huard - 2%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: PHILIP RIVERS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Trent Green - 45%, Damon Huard - 40%, Brodie Croyle - 10%, Other - 5%
DENVER BRONCOS: JAY CUTLER
OAKLAND RAIDERS: JaMarcus Russell - 65%, Other - 20%, Andrew Walter - 10%, Aaron Brooks - 5%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Donovan McNabb - 60%, A.J. Feeley - 25%, Jeff Garcia - 10%, Other - 5%
NEW YORK GIANTS: ELI MANNING
DALLAS COWBOYS: TONY ROMO
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Jason Campbell - 75%, Other - 25%

CHICAGO BEARS: Rex Grossman - 60%, Brian Griese - 20%, Other - 20%
GREEN BAY PACKERS: BRETT FAVRE
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Tarvaris Jackson - 75%, Brooks Bollinger - 15%, Jeff Garcia - 10%
DETROIT LIONS: Jon Kitna - 85%, Brady Quinn - 15%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: DREW BREES
CAROLINA PANTHERS: Jake Delhomme - 95%, Other - 5%
ATLANTA FALCONS: Michael Vick - 98%, Matt Schaub - 2%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Chris Simms - 40%, Jeff Garcia - 25%, David Carr - 25%, Brady Quinn - 5%, Seneca Wallace - 3%, Other - 2%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Matt Hasselbeck - 90%, Seneca Wallace - 10%
ST. LOUIS RAMS: MARC BULGER
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: ALEX SMITH
ARIZONA CARDINALS: MATT LEINART

*Edit 2/2/07 -- Moved Favre from 45% to definite starter. Moved Tarvaris Jackson from 55% to 75%, moved Brooks Bollinger from 5% to 15%, subtracted some options from MIN. Moved McNabb from 55% to 60%.
*Edit 2/5/07 -- Dropped Rex Grossman from 95% to 60%.
messinwithu
F&L - Thank you this is a great update. thumbup1.gif
Fear & Loathing
Quarterbacks & Runningbacks updated at the top of page 1 as of 2/1/07. I'm working on WRs & TEs and hope to have them up soon. Additionally, I added ages for all players as of the opening of the 2007 season.

I actually have all of this and more information arranged in a much better looking package if anybody knows how to get an excel spreadsheet attached to this thread.
TeamDingo
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 05:48 PM) *
Experiment time. Please join in if you have a strong feel for a situation below.

Handicapping the starting QB percentages as of Feb. 1st



Is this % to be opening day starter?
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (TeamDingo @ Feb 1 2007, 01:08 PM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 05:48 PM) *

Experiment time. Please join in if you have a strong feel for a situation below.

Handicapping the starting QB percentages as of Feb. 1st



Is this % to be opening day starter?


More like who will be the main QB for that team. Who is that team counting on the most for the 2007 season...which is not always the same as opening day starter (i.e. Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tony Romo in '06).

McNabb is a tough one. I think he'll be healthy enough to be the Eagles' QB in '07, but you never know. Palmer was. Culpepper wasn't...even though he started the season opener.
TeamDingo
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 05:48 PM) *
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Tarvaris Jackson - 55%, Jeff Garcia - 25%, David Carr - 15%, Brooks Bollinger - 5%



My take on the Vikes (interested on what others think)
TJackson 51%,BBollinger 33%, Other (MSchaub?) 6%, JGarcia 5%, DCarr 5%
Ron_Mexico
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *
QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I agree that Berrian at 40 is way way too low.
He's a rising star in this league, with great hands
and blazing speed. I have him ranked in the mid-20's.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (TeamDingo @ Feb 1 2007, 04:05 PM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 05:48 PM) *

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Tarvaris Jackson - 55%, Jeff Garcia - 25%, David Carr - 15%, Brooks Bollinger - 5%



My take on the Vikes (interested on what others think)
TJackson 51%,BBollinger 33%, Other (MSchaub?) 6%, JGarcia 5%, DCarr 5%


If you're a Vikes fan, I'm sure you have a better feel for it than I do. What I wonder though, is what does starting Bollinger accomplish for your team? He's certainly not going to help you win games. And wasting starts on Brooks Bollinger isn't going to help Tarvaris Jackson learn on the job. I think it sends the dangerous message to your team and your fan base that not only are you failing to give your team a chance to field a competitive team on a weekly basis, but you're also not sure whether you have a plan in place for rebuilding to field a competitive team in the near future.

Is Tarvaris Jackson the franchise QB or not?

Garcia could make some sense if it's just to try to give the team a chance to win on a weekly basis for a half year while buying a little more time for Jackson. I wonder about a guy like Schaub or another young QB. Don't you think it would be a bit nonsensical to spend a 2nd round draft pick on Jackson, watch him exhibit poise and accuracy in the preseason, give him a chance to start a few games at the close of the season, and then turn around and do a 180 by ditching your investment to see what's inside another box?

Edit to add: That would probably leave out Carr too. He wouldn't make as much sense as Garcia for a placeholder, and he's really not enough of a sure thing to make you want to take all of your eggs out of Jackson's basket and put them in Carr's.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Feb 1 2007, 04:45 PM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *

QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I agree that Berrian at 40 is way way too low.
He's a rising star in this league, with great hands
and blazing speed. I have him ranked in the mid-20's.


Pulled from back in October? I think Berrian was in the early to mid 30s in my last rankings. I can't see him going much higher than 30 or so. Great hands? What's so remarkable about them compared to any other starting WR?

I definitely have had him leapfrogging Muhammad since this was first discussed, but Berrian isn't a guy that I'm running out to acquire. I think he had about, what, 750 yards receiving this year? And he still has an inaccurate headcase throwing the ball to him. I'm not about to get carried away with Bernard Berrian yet.

Interesting stat: Even after not seeing much playing time early on, Santonio Holmes quietly put up more yards this year than Bernard Berrian.
Maelstrom
blackdot.gif
radballs
Great thread and nice work that everyone has put into it. Hadn't come across this one yet.
TeamDingo
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Feb 1 2007, 03:48 PM) *
QUOTE (TeamDingo @ Feb 1 2007, 04:05 PM) *

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 05:48 PM) *

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Tarvaris Jackson - 55%, Jeff Garcia - 25%, David Carr - 15%, Brooks Bollinger - 5%



My take on the Vikes (interested on what others think)
TJackson 51%,BBollinger 33%, Other (MSchaub?) 6%, JGarcia 5%, DCarr 5%


If you're a Vikes fan, I'm sure you have a better feel for it than I do. What I wonder though, is what does starting Bollinger accomplish for your team? He's certainly not going to help you win games. And wasting starts on Brooks Bollinger isn't going to help Tarvaris Jackson learn on the job. I think it sends the dangerous message to your team and your fan base that not only are you failing to give your team a chance to field a competitive team on a weekly basis, but you're also not sure whether you have a plan in place for rebuilding to field a competitive team in the near future.

Is Tarvaris Jackson the franchise QB or not?

Garcia could make some sense if it's just to try to give the team a chance to win on a weekly basis for a half year while buying a little more time for Jackson. I wonder about a guy like Schaub or another young QB. Don't you think it would be a bit nonsensical to spend a 2nd round draft pick on Jackson, watch him exhibit poise and accuracy in the preseason, give him a chance to start a few games at the close of the season, and then turn around and do a 180 by ditching your investment to see what's inside another box?

Edit to add: That would probably leave out Carr too. He wouldn't make as much sense as Garcia for a placeholder, and he's really not enough of a sure thing to make you want to take all of your eggs out of Jackson's basket and put them in Carr's.



My observation/take on TJackson is no different than yours (51%v55%) which is to say that he has a slightly better than even chance to be the QB for the Vikes next year. My diffrent read on the situation is that BBollinger is much much more likely to be the place holder than JGarcia or DCarr or anyone else. BBollinger would have finished the year as the Vikes starting QB if he had not seperated his shoulder last year. I do not think if he was healthy that TJackson would have seen the field last year. Someone will over pay JGarcia, it just does not make much sense to me that it will be the Vikes. Why (over)pay him for half a year if you want TJackson to be your future franchise QB? BBollinger would accomplish in theory exactly what starting BJohnson did last year. He's cheap and he can play some and hopefully not turn the ball over. If the running game and defense are good you can be a playoff team in the NFC. If the Vikes could get a MSchaub or a JPlummer cheap they may do that but I am not even sure. I would give that a higher % than Garcia or Carr.

FWIW-
Childress, Brad Johnson to meet
Tuesday, January 2nd, 2007 by Judd Zulgad One piece of information Brad Childress offered up at his season-ending news conference was that he was headed upstairs to talk to veteran quarterback Brad Johnson about the future. “He’ll be in the mix if he wants to be here,” Childress said of Johnson. “He’s under contract right.”

Childress made it clear that Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger are his top two quarterbacks and that if Johnson does return it would be, “in a mentoring role.”

If the Vikings bring in a new quarterback Childress said it will be a “developmental guy,” or “lower-round draft pick.”

“I don’t think we’re going the free-agent market, we’re not close to thinking about going for a free-agent quarterback,” Childress said. “I like the guys that are here right now. We kept three of the quarterbacks on this squad. If I didn’t feel like there was a viable third, possibly go with two next year.”


And here’s a note that won’t make Vikings fans very happy. Right now, he said he plans on continuing to call plays.
Fear & Loathing
Leaders in the clubhouse:

JaMarcus Russell -- OAK
Brady Quinn -- HOU, CAR

Jake Plummer -- HOU
David Carr -- CLE
Matt Schaub -- ATL
Jeff Garcia -- TB
Damon Huard -- KC

Just trying to get a feel for where guys might wind up. I know it's a futile exercise being only the first week of February, so take it for it's worth. These look like the most likely scenarios to me early in the race.

I have no idea on David Garrard, Drew Bledsoe, Aaron Brooks & Patrick Ramsey.
Yitbos69
blackdot.gif
Bossman
QUOTE
10 Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping, 3.6 YPC in '06; a lot of tough carries under his belt

how quickly we forget....1 season removed from 28 TD's and almost 2000 yds.
no.gif
Liquid Tension
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 11 2007, 02:13 PM) *
QUOTE (fornov @ Jan 10 2007, 12:46 AM) *

Great, great thread. I can't believe I haven't noticed this until now!?! Thanks for all the work you've put into these rankings.

Not that you need my blessing, but I completely agree with you about your "difference maker" arguement. That's why I've always felt most dynasty rankings put far too much value in RB's in the RB10-40 range. A top 5 QB (Brady, Palmer) or a top 10 WR (Holt, C Johnson, Harrison) is far more valuable than your typical RB20, IMO, simply because you know you have solid, consistent production every year.


Thanks for the kudos, fornov. Please join in and throw around your 2cents.gif wherever you see fit.

My gameplan on building a nucleus in dynasty leagues has always been to try to make sure I have one sure-fire top 5 RB. I've counted Steven Jackson as that guy for the past two seasons. From here, though, I tend to differ with a lot of dynasty owners. Once I have that one bell cow RB, then I make sure I have a top QB & a top WR before I worry about that 2nd RB spot.

Top QBs are extremely important in dynasty leagues because the top tier are so reliable from season to season. A front-line WR is money because he can produce for years in a position that has so much change beyond the top 10-15 from season to season.

RBs come and go with great frequency. I say find that one bulwark you can rely on and then use your imagination to find a solid RB2. i.e. last offseason, you could have traded for Frank Gore before he blew up, took advantage of Ahman Green's low value to give yourself a cheap weekly starter, packaged a couple of players for a then 12-15 ranked Brian Westbrook. You could have jumped all over Jamal Lewis at mid-season to solidify your RB2 over the rest of the season. Find a RB you have had faith in and pounce on him while his value is down. This method, though risky and overly-reliant on other owners (via trades), allows you to have your cake and eat it too by building a nucleus that neglects no important positions.


I agree about the QB. There have been so many Manning QB threads, I started one myself (my sig), but having Manning in a dynasty for the past 3 years has been fantastic. You basically have a consistent great player at the position who stays healthy. As for the other ideas, I simply look at value everywhere I go and don't limit my opportunities by looking for anything but value. if that is my 3rd WR instead of my 2nd RB, then that is hwree I will go because eventually I can trade "that" value for a RB that is undervalued and be ahead of the game.
Patoons
I'm confused on Eli being below Leftwich... Leftwich isn't even a guaranteed starter next year, imo.
Yitbos69
QUOTE (Bossman @ Feb 3 2007, 10:01 AM) *
QUOTE
10 Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping, 3.6 YPC in '06; a lot of tough carries under his belt

how quickly we forget....1 season removed from 28 TD's and almost 2000 yds.
no.gif


I am a huge fan of SA and I think he has maybe 2 seasons left in his tank at his top level of play......I just traded him yesterday for Fitz and the 1.8 pick in our draft.

It was hard to trade him because I still have him ranked in my top five. but in a keeper league where I was getting one of the Top WR is the league who is only 23 I could not pass it up.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Bossman @ Feb 3 2007, 10:01 AM) *
QUOTE
10 Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping, 3.6 YPC in '06; a lot of tough carries under his belt

how quickly we forget....1 season removed from 28 TD's and almost 2000 yds.
no.gif


I don't think it's a matter of forgetting or not. I certainly remember his '05 season. It's more a matter of the fact that those stats are gone like a fart in the wind. You're not going to get credit for them in '07. So what we have to do is figure out his value for the next couple of years.

You could have made the same argument for Marshall Faulk after his 2002 season and say that he was one season removed from 21 TDs and two seasons removed from 26 TDs. But then you would have been stuck with an untradeable washed up RB. The Faulk owner in my league had this great plan to hold onto Faulk for a couple more runs at a league championship and then trade him right before his value went downhill. Unfortunately, Faulk didn't have another championship run left him, and the other owners in the league realized it by the time the Faulk owner did. He got stuck with a dwindling Faulk and didn't get to replace him with Steven Jackson.

I'm not saying Alexander can't bounce back to 16 TDs and 1450 yards rushing. But he has some things working against him now that he didn't have in '05. First of all, he's going to be 30 years old to start the season...with a lot of wear and tear on his body. Second, his offensive line is not nearly as strong as it was in '05, which may help explain the 3.6 YPC. Finally, he's coming off his first injury plagued season. That may be a fluke, but at age 30 it could also be a sign of things to come.

And again, it comes down to your own team's unique situation. I think there are several scenarios where he's more valuable to your team than some of the guys in front of him. He could be RB5 for your team and your league.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Patoons @ Feb 3 2007, 10:18 AM) *
I'm confused on Eli being below Leftwich... Leftwich isn't even a guaranteed starter next year, imo.


I disagree.

If you want the many reasons for it, they are practically littered throughout this thread.
Yitbos69
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Feb 3 2007, 10:30 AM) *
QUOTE (Bossman @ Feb 3 2007, 10:01 AM) *

QUOTE
10 Shaun Alexander SEA 30.0 - Value is seeping, 3.6 YPC in '06; a lot of tough carries under his belt

how quickly we forget....1 season removed from 28 TD's and almost 2000 yds.
no.gif


I don't think it's a matter of forgetting or not. I certainly remember his '05 season. It's more a matter of the fact that those stats are gone like a fart in the wind. You're not going to credit for them in '07. So what we have to do is figure out his value for the next couple of years.

You could have made the same argument for Marshall Faulk after his 2002 season and say that he was one season removed from 21 TDs and two seasons removed from 26 TDs. But then you would have been stuck with an untradeable washed up RB. The Faulk owner in my league had this great plan to hold onto Faulk for a couple more runs at a league championship and then trade him right before his value went downhill. Unfortunately, Faulk didn't have another championship run left him, and the other owners in the league realized it by the time the Faulk owner did. He got stuck with a dwindling Faulk and didn't get to replace him with Steven Jackson.

I'm not saying Alexander can't bounce back to 16 TDs and 1450 yards rushing. But he has some things working against him now that he didn't have in '05. First of all, he's going to be 30 years old to start the season...with a lot of wear and tear on his body. Second, his offensive line is not nearly as strong as it was in '05, which may help explain the 3.6 YPC. Finally, he's coming off his first injury plagued season. That may be a fluke, but at age 30 it could also be a sign of things to come.

And again, it comes down to your own team's unique situation. I think there are several scenarios where he's more valuable to your team than some of the guys in front of him. He could be RB5 for your team and your league.



pigskinp.gif

That is the main reason I traded SA away. He still has value. But his value is on the decline. After another year with 300+ carries even if he puts up 1500/16 how much value will he have in keeper/Dynasty league at the age of 31.
Ron_Mexico
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *
QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I don't think it's close.
Afer all we are talking about DYNASTY
rankings here, Berrian gets separation
like no other WR in the game.

Plus he's a full 7 years younger than Muhammad.
The kid did well with his opportunty this year,
we must remember who is tossing the ball here,
it ain't Peyton Manning.

I will take a 26 year old Berrian
over a 33 year old Muhammad eight days a week.

Guess we don't see eye to eye on this one.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Feb 3 2007, 12:12 PM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *

QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I don't think it's close.
Afer all we are talking about DYNASTY
rankings here, Berrian gets separation
like no other WR in the game.

Plus he's a full 7 years younger than Muhammad.
The kid did well with his opportunty this year,
we must remember who is tossing the ball here,
it ain't Peyton Manning.

I will take a 26 year old Berrian
over a 33 year old Muhammad eight days a week.

Guess we don't see eye to eye on this one.


Again? How many times are we going to do this?

You have an ongoing debate with a paragraph I wrote in October, and you continue to quote that paragraph instead of what I've written (or how I've ranked them) much more recently.

FYI, I answered you the other day about 10 posts up [#176] with this:

QUOTE
Pulled from back in October? I think Berrian was in the early to mid 30s in my last rankings. I can't see him going much higher than 30 or so. Great hands? What's so remarkable about them compared to any other starting WR?

I definitely have had him leapfrogging Muhammad since this was first discussed, but Berrian isn't a guy that I'm running out to acquire. I think he had about, what, 750 yards receiving this year? And he still has an inaccurate headcase throwing the ball to him. I'm not about to get carried away with Bernard Berrian yet.

Interesting stat: Even after not seeing much playing time early on, Santonio Holmes quietly put up more yards this year than Bernard Berrian.
Ron_Mexico
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Feb 3 2007, 09:29 AM) *
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Feb 3 2007, 12:12 PM) *

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *

QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I don't think it's close.
Afer all we are talking about DYNASTY
rankings here, Berrian gets separation
like no other WR in the game.

Plus he's a full 7 years younger than Muhammad.
The kid did well with his opportunty this year,
we must remember who is tossing the ball here,
it ain't Peyton Manning.

I will take a 26 year old Berrian
over a 33 year old Muhammad eight days a week.

Guess we don't see eye to eye on this one.


Again? How many times are we going to do this?

You have an ongoing debate with a paragraph I wrote in October, and you continue to quote that paragraph instead of what I've written (or how I've ranked them) much more recently.

FYI, I answered you the other day about 10 posts up [#176] with this:

QUOTE
Pulled from back in October? I think Berrian was in the early to mid 30s in my last rankings. I can't see him going much higher than 30 or so. Great hands? What's so remarkable about them compared to any other starting WR?

I definitely have had him leapfrogging Muhammad since this was first discussed, but Berrian isn't a guy that I'm running out to acquire. I think he had about, what, 750 yards receiving this year? And he still has an inaccurate headcase throwing the ball to him. I'm not about to get carried away with Bernard Berrian yet.

Interesting stat: Even after not seeing much playing time early on, Santonio Holmes quietly put up more yards this year than Bernard Berrian.



Sorry 'bout that F&L.
Didn't notice the date on that one, penaltyflag.gif 15 yards.

I guess I'm struggling to find your latest WR updates.

You've got tons of useful info on this thread, great work.
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Feb 3 2007, 12:39 PM) *
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Feb 3 2007, 09:29 AM) *

QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Feb 3 2007, 12:12 PM) *

QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 26 2006, 11:08 AM) *

QUOTE (bumpman @ Oct 26 2006, 01:50 PM) *

Berrian at WR40 seems awfully low, especially with Muhammed at WR27. Do you really think Berrian has less value than Troy Williamson in a dynasty format?


Personally, I would much rather have Muhammed on my team than Berrian. Do you really believe Grossman & Berrian are going to keep hooking up on deep balls at this phenomenal rate? I don't. There's a fluky nature to it that I don't expect to repeat itself in the 2nd half. As the weather gets tougher, Grossman is going to be looking for old reliable #87 a lot more often.

You're putting a lot of stock in the Bears passing game numbers the first 6 games of this season. We'll see. I'm impressed, but not convinced.

One guy tells me I ranked Williamson too low, the next guy tells me he's too high. shrug2.gif



I don't think it's close.
Afer all we are talking about DYNASTY
rankings here, Berrian gets separation
like no other WR in the game.

Plus he's a full 7 years younger than Muhammad.
The kid did well with his opportunty this year,
we must remember who is tossing the ball here,
it ain't Peyton Manning.

I will take a 26 year old Berrian
over a 33 year old Muhammad eight days a week.

Guess we don't see eye to eye on this one.


Again? How many times are we going to do this?

You have an ongoing debate with a paragraph I wrote in October, and you continue to quote that paragraph instead of what I've written (or how I've ranked them) much more recently.

FYI, I answered you the other day about 10 posts up [#176] with this:

QUOTE
Pulled from back in October? I think Berrian was in the early to mid 30s in my last rankings. I can't see him going much higher than 30 or so. Great hands? What's so remarkable about them compared to any other starting WR?

I definitely have had him leapfrogging Muhammad since this was first discussed, but Berrian isn't a guy that I'm running out to acquire. I think he had about, what, 750 yards receiving this year? And he still has an inaccurate headcase throwing the ball to him. I'm not about to get carried away with Bernard Berrian yet.

Interesting stat: Even after not seeing much playing time early on, Santonio Holmes quietly put up more yards this year than Bernard Berrian.



Sorry 'bout that F&L.
Didn't notice the date on that one, penaltyflag.gif 15 yards.

I guess I'm struggling to find your latest WR updates.

You've got tons of useful info on this thread, great work.


Now I feel bad. Sorry I came on a little strong there.

Hope to have WRs up this afternoon. Will bump when I do. Thanks.
Fear & Loathing
Added WR rankings.

(Rankings are at the top of page one)

Next project is to come up with a weighted ranking for each position. For example:

QUARTERBACKS
100] Peyton Manning
91] Carson Palmer
86] Donovan McNabb
82] Michael Vick
81] Drew Brees
78] Tom Brady
73] Vince Young
69] Marc Bulger
68] Ben Roethlisberger
67] Matt Leinart
65] Matt Hasselbeck
63] Philip Rivers
etc., etc.
Fear & Loathing
Added Tight Ends, Kickers & Defenses.

Should be awhile before the next major revisions...

I'm not going to add rookies until after the draft because I think it's ludicrous to try to rank these guys before we even know where they're going to play. I think it's Adrian Peterson & Calvin Johnson and then everyone else, but we'll see how that fits in with the rest of the rankings in April or May.
djb916420
Thanks F&L, truely a great post! I know u dedicated alot of time to this tread and we apperciate it.
comfortably numb
Great job,
Thanks
Fear & Loathing
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jan 31 2007, 06:48 PM) *
Experiment time. Please join in if you have a strong feel for a situation below.

Handicapping the starting QB percentages as of Feb. 1st

AVAILABLE QB's:

DRAFT
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Drew Stanton
Troy Smith
Kevin Kolb

FREE AGENT
Matt Schaub [Restricted FA or via Trade]
Jeff Garcia
Damon Huard
Kerry Collins

TRADE
Jake Plummer [or FA after June 1st]
David Carr
David Garrard
Seneca Wallace [likely to stay in SEA one more year]

CUT CANDIDATES
Aaron Brooks
Drew Bledsoe
Patrick Ramsey
Brad Johnson
Mark Brunell
Joey Harrington
Tim Rattay
Trent Green


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: TOM BRADY
NEW YORK JETS: Chad Pennington - 85%, Kellen Clemens - 15%
BUFFALO BILLS: J.P. LOSMAN
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Daunte Culpepper - 80%, Cleo Lemon - 15%, Other - 5%

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Steve McNair - 97%, Kyle Boller - 3%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: BEN ROETHLISBERGER
CINCINNATI BENGALS: CARSON PALMER
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Charlie Frye - 35%, David Carr - 15%, Jake Plummer - 15%, Brady Quinn - 15%, Damon Huard - 8%, David Garrard - 8%, Patrick Ramsey - 3%, Derek Anderson - 1%

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: PEYTON MANNING
TENNESSEE TITANS: VINCE YOUNG
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Byron Leftwich - 66%, David Garrard - 33%, Quinn Gray - 1%
HOUSTON TEXANS: Jake Plummer - 40%, Brady Quinn - 20%, David Carr - 15%, Sage Rosenfels - 8%, David Garrard - 5%, Matt Schaub - 5%, Jeff Garcia - 5%, Damon Huard - 2%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: PHILIP RIVERS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Trent Green - 45%, Damon Huard - 40%, Brodie Croyle - 10%, Other - 5%
DENVER BRONCOS: JAY CUTLER
OAKLAND RAIDERS: JaMarcus Russell - 65%, Other - 20%, Andrew Walter - 10%, Aaron Brooks - 5%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Donovan McNabb - 60%, A.J. Feeley - 25%, Jeff Garcia - 10%, Other - 5%
NEW YORK GIANTS: ELI MANNING
DALLAS COWBOYS: TONY ROMO
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Jason Campbell - 75%, Other - 25%

CHICAGO BEARS: Rex Grossman - 60%, Brian Griese - 20%, Other - 20%
GREEN BAY PACKERS: BRETT FAVRE
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Tarvaris Jackson - 75%, Brooks Bollinger - 15%, Jeff Garcia - 10%
DETROIT LIONS: Jon Kitna - 85%, Brady Quinn - 15%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: DREW BREES
CAROLINA PANTHERS: Jake Delhomme - 95%, Other - 5%
ATLANTA FALCONS: Michael Vick - 98%, Matt Schaub - 2%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Chris Simms - 40%, Jeff Garcia - 25%, David Carr - 25%, Brady Quinn - 5%, Seneca Wallace - 3%, Other - 2%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Matt Hasselbeck - 90%, Seneca Wallace - 10%
ST. LOUIS RAMS: MARC BULGER
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: ALEX SMITH
ARIZONA CARDINALS: MATT LEINART

*Edit 2/2/07 -- Moved Favre from 45% to definite starter. Moved Tarvaris Jackson from 55% to 75%, moved Brooks Bollinger from 5% to 15%, subtracted some options from MIN. Moved McNabb from 55% to 60%.
*Edit 2/5/07 -- Dropped Rex Grossman from 95% to 60%.


Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal just rendered my QB work to the back pages. Below is his impressively in-depth look at the off-season QB landscape (thoughts to come...hopefully).

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Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
Rotoworld.com

With the Super Bowl hangover wearing off, the NFL can safely start preparations for the 2007 season. The next month will be used to evaluate personnel, re-work contracts, and start clearing room for the 2007 salary cap. Occasional trade talks will spring up, but the most popular way to create roster flexibility is to cut dead weight.

That's why our free agency preview includes my rankings of unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents, trade candidates, and possible salary cap casualties. I'll rank every worthwhile player who could be available this off-season, and what teams are particularly needy at each position.

Today our series starts with the signal callers. While the list of unrestricted free agents is uninspiring, there are a number of intriguing names that I expect to be on the trade block or released. All of these veterans will enter a market where most NFL teams have young starters or entrenched veterans in place. For once, there is a buyer's market at quarterback. Teams that need to add talent like Minnesota, Oakland, and Houston won't have much competition for the biggest names available.

Unrestricted Free Agents

1. Damon Huard, Chiefs – Huard was having a Pro Bowl-quality season until Trent Green got healthy. The Chiefs offense fared much better with Huard in the lineup. He showed great touch on his passes. Huard will turn 34 next season, so he's not a long-term solution. He played under Al Saunders in Kansas City, so he's a natural fit in Washington.

2. Jeff Garcia, Eagles - Garcia barely got a job last off-season, but there should be more interest this time around. He showed surprising arm strength in 2006 as Andy Reid rehabbed his career. Garcia is a quality backup who could compete to start with an untested young player. Tampa Bay and Minnesota are natural fits because of their use of the West Coast offense.

3. Marques Tuiasosopo, Raiders - He never fit in Oakland's vertical attack after Jon Gruden left town. Tui hasn't looked great in limited work as a pro (two touchdowns, seven interceptions), but he's young enough to get another job. Reuniting with Gruden in Tampa makes sense.

4. Tim Rattay, Bucs - Rattay rehabbed his image in the league with three solid efforts in December, including a great three touchdown comeback in Chicago. Coaches never seem to warm to Rattay, but he's been consistently productive enough to get a backup job. Denver is a logical fit.

5. Anthony Wright, Bengals - Carson Palmer's backup could be back next season to perform the same duties.

6. Kerry Collins, Titans - Tennessee reportedly wants him back behind Vince Young. He may retire.

7. Todd Bouman, Saints - Couldn't win the backup job in New Orleans. Probably done.

Restricted Free Agents

1. Matt Schaub, Falcons - Schaub will be the subject of intense trade speculation again this off-season. The Falcons are committed to Michael Vick as their franchise quarterback and finances indicate they don't have a choice. Atlanta should be very tempted to deal Schaub in the last year of his contract, no matter what they've said publicly. Schaub's West Coast offense experience may not fit with Bobby Petrino's new offense anyhow.

Minnesota and Houston have the motivation to make a run at Schaub, who should get a high tender. One note of caution: Schaub has six touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 6.4 YPA in 161 career attempts.

2. Quinn Gray, Jaguars – Was a revelation in Jacksonville's regular season finale. Look for the Jaguars to retain Gray while cutting ties with Byron Leftwich or David Garrard. Gray would be the backup in that scenario.

3. Cleo Lemon, Dolphins – Lemon was a favorite of Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego, and showed plenty of natural skill in Miami's season finale. The Dolphins should make sure they retain Lemon and let him compete with Daunte Culpepper.

4. Jim Sorgi, Colts – Sorgi has looked great in limited work for the Colts. A long-term extension would make sense for the team if he's happy being a backup.

5. John Navarre, Cardinals – Will always be remembered as part of the Shaun King-Josh McCown-Navarre triangle of Dennis Green destruction in 2004.

6. Brian St. Pierre, Steelers

Trade Candidates

1. Byron Leftwich/David Garrard, Jaguars – I would take Leftwich over Garrard, but either player will be highly coveted on the trade market. Jacksonville has to make a decision here because Quinn Gray looks like a solid backup.

One of these guys should get dealt. New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter favors a vertical approach and Jack Del Rio drafted Leftwich, both of which could help Leftwich's chances of staying. Either player can be a decent starter in the NFL, but Garrard probably has less trade value. Washington and Cleveland look like fits.

2. Jake Plummer, Broncos – Plummer collapsed in 2006 under the weight of a poor offense and a lack of confidence. Plummer is only 32 and just a year removed from back-to-back solid seasons. He will probably get a chance to start again and Houston is the most likely option. If the Broncos can't trade Plummer, they will probably cut him.

3. David Carr – It was a bad sign for Carr that he regressed under QB-friendly coach Gary Kubiak. He may need a fresh start, and there's a good chance Houston will oblige. Oakland seems like a fit.

Cap Casualty Candidates

1. Aaron Brooks, Raiders – Being better than Andrew Walter isn't good enough. A.B. would make a fine backup somewhere.

2. Joey Harrington, Dolphins – Won in Miami, but was a disaster by December. Harrington could possibly stay and compete with Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon for snaps.

3. Drew Bledsoe, Cowboys – Just about done. Bledsoe could get a backup job if he wants, but we suspect he is looking for a chance to start. He may be out of those.

4. Billy Volek, Chargers – Due a roster bonus in March. Volek may be considered superfluous with Charlie Whitehurst around.

5. Patrick Ramsey, Jets – Kellen Clemens is the future in New York, and Chad Pennington is the present.

6. Brad Johnson, Vikings – Almost certain to be released. Less certain that he'll find a job.

7. Chris Weinke, Panthers – Carolina wants to upgrade at backup quarterback after Weinke tanked in December this season.

8. Mark Brunell, Redskins – Will be tough to return from shoulder surgery at his age.

Teams Looking for Quarterbacks

Notice I call this list teams looking for quarterback. Some teams, like the Lions and Bills, could probably use another quality arm. But they aren't expected to be looking, especially for a veteran.

1. Minnesota Vikings - Tarvaris Jackson is an intriguing talent, but he's a question mark. His two late season starts didn't settle the team's long-term plans. Brooks Bollinger has a chance to start. He's better than his reputation, but Brad Childress will look to upgrade. Familiarity with the West Coast offense will be a plus, so names like Jeff Garcia, Matt Schaub, Jake Plummer, Tim Rattay, and Marques Tuiasosopo make sense.

2. Oakland Raiders - The organization still appears to have some faith in Andrew Walter, although we're not sure why. Aaron Brooks is unlikely to be back. Oakland may not be patient enough to draft a quarterback with the first pick in April. It wouldn't be a surprise if they went after Jake Plummer, Byron Leftwich, or David Carr, then take Calvin Johnson with the first pick.

3. Washington Redskins - I've watched a lot of tape on Jason Campbell. There is plenty of talent, but he was highly inconsistent throw-to-throw. With the Redskins in perpetual win-now mode, I'd be surprised if the Redskins don't go after one of the Jaguars quarterbacks or Damon Huard.

4. Houston Texans - David Carr seems likely to be traded. Houston is high on Sage Rosenfels, but they will want to bring in competition. This is the most likely destination for Jake Plummer because Gary Kubiak coached him in Denver. Houston could also choose to draft a quarterback to develop under Rosenfels.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - After Chris Simms' signing, Jon Gruden admitted that, "There's a good chance someone else will be in town competing."

He wasn't talking about Bruce Gradkowski. Gruden was a fan of Marques Tuiasosopo, so the former Raider is a viable option. Gruden never met a veteran he didn't like, so look for the Bucs could also sniff around Jeff Garcia and Jeff Plummer. Someone will compete with Simms.

6. Cleveland Browns - GM Phil Savage is in a tough spot. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are both young players, so drafting another quarterback seems redundant. Neither Frye or Anderson is proven, so I suspect the Browns will look around. If they don't find anything they like, they can pass.

7. Kansas City Chiefs - Trent Green started showing his age last season. Damon Huard is a free agent and likely to leave. The Chiefs ostensibly have their "quarterback of the future" in second-year player Brodie Croyle, but he had a bad training camp last season. The Chiefs should be looking for a quarterback, but we're not sure they will.

8. Detroit Lions - Jon Kitna isn't going to win you a Super Bowl. Detroit says they are content to stand pat at the quarterback position, but it wouldn't shock us if they drafted Brady Quinn in April.

9. Dallas Cowboys - If Drew Bledsoe retires; the Cowboys could use an experienced backup.

10. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens already have to think about life after Steve McNair and Kyle Boller. Boller is a free agent at the end of the 2007 season.

11. Carolina Panthers - They would like a backup to replace Chris Weinke. A draft pick is possible.

12. Miami Dolphins - They have invested so much in Daunte Culpepper, there is probably no looking back. Cleo Lemon is more likely to compete for a job than a free agent.

13. Denver Broncos - If Jake Plummer is traded, Denver will want to get a veteran backup.

14. Philadelphia Eagles - Even if Jeff Garcia leaves, A.J. Feeley probably works as a backup.
Fear & Loathing
Pertinent news on player values:

From the FBG Blogger:

Lions Interested In WR Curtis, Feeling Mutual?
Tom Kowalski, Michigan Live
QUOTE
When free agency opens in early March, expect the Lions to strike quickly at a receiver. More specifically, WR Kevin Curtis, and for two reasons. He has the outside speed and he knows OC Mike Martz's offense. That second point can't be underestimated, especially when you consider what WR Mike Furrey did last season. If the money is close, expect Curtis to sign because he, too, wants to put up big numbers and he knows his best opportunity will be with Martz in Detroit.

I had already moved Kevin Curtis into the mid-30s in the WR rankings. I think Detroit is a perfect fit, and he could really hold significant value if this does happen...I would bump up him again in the rankings. On a related note, one would expect that Jon Kitna's fantasy numbers could get even better in 2007 if Curtis joins Roy Williams & Mike Furrey.


From rotoworld:

QUOTE
The Charlotte Observer believes Byron Leftwich won't be able to "patch things up" with the Jaguars when the sides meet this offseason.
It's worth noting that new Jags offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter chose a young, mobile Rudy Carpenter over big-armed senior Sam Keller while coaching at Arizona State in 2006. The decision didn't pan out well. At this point, it's likely the Jags will decide between Leftwich and David Garrard to start with Quinn Gray working as the backup in 2007.

Interesting, but also pure speculation. I read the whole article, and the Charlotte Observer writer didn't give any indication of why he believed Leftwich & Del Rio won't be able to patch things up. I get the feeling that Leftwich will indeed be back in Jacksonville. If he's not, I think he'll be the #1 target for teams looking to improve on their starting QB situation.


From rotoworld:

QUOTE
ESPN's Len Pasquarelli believes Brian Griese and Kyle Orton may be given a chance to compete with Rex Grossman in 2007 training camp.
Chicago's decision of whether or not to extend Grossman's contract will be very telling. Orton would seem very unlikely to be starting in 2007.

I think a trade for David Garrard makes a lot of sense for the Bears, but I also thought Griese was a better fit for the Bears this year than Grossman. What would be even more interesting is if the Jags did make Leftwich available (as Adam Shefter implied a couple of months ago).

Griese has put up some interesting numbers in his career, but he's always been found wanting for some reason or another. He's no great shakes, but he's a safer fit than Grossman with a Bears team whose opportunity for winning Super Bowls is the next couple of seasons. They can't afford to have their QB blowing it when their defense, special teams and running game continue to put up dominant performances (assuming the healthy return of Tommy Harris & Mike Brown and the re-signing of Briggs). Lovie has been overly loyal to Rex, so this will be a wait & see situation.


From rotoworld:
QUOTE
Bob Glauber of Newsday contends that the Giants may show interest in Dominic Rhodes, an impending unrestricted free agent.
Rhodes wouldn't require the draft-pick compensation Michael Turner or Thomas Jones would and is a more proven pass catcher than Turner. He'd be a far less sexy choice but probably a much more affordable one.

Again, pure speculation. But I think this could be great news for Brandon Jacobs owners. If the Giants go for Rhodes rather than using a high draft pick or paying up for Michael Turner, Thomas Jones or Ahman Green, it's not going to take as much for Jacobs to stay on the field. Rhodes is a fine role player, but he shouldn't be anybody's idea of a "200+ carry" running back.


From rotoworld:

QUOTE
The Ravens are reportedly open to trading Kyle Boller.
There have been rumors that Carolina would be interested in Boller, who threw five touchdowns to just two INTs and completed 60 percent of his passes in relief duty last season. He's only signed through 2007, so the Ravens may want to get what they can for him before he jets in free agency. The Baltimore Sun suggests that might be a third-round pick.

He's a free agent, so the Ravens want to see what they can get for him this off-season. That's what The Baltimore Sun is implying. I don't know how much sense this makes. Who is going to give up a 3rd round pick for a failed QB about to become a free agent? In which case, why would Baltimore trade their back-up QB for anything less than a 4th round pick? Baltimore may well want to cash in on Boller before he leaves, but I don't see why anybody would want to pay the asking price. This is the 2nd time I've read that Baltimore is looking to deal Boller, so what I'm taking from these reports is that he's probably no longer seen as a credible option for the future in Baltimore.
slimflop
Thanks F&L thumbup1.gif
Fear & Loathing
Rotoworld has Gregg Rosenthal's offseason RB rundown up. Again, he does an excellent job covering all of the RBs likely to be on the move and the teams with a need.

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Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
FA Preview: Running Backs

The best running backs available this off-season aren't unrestricted free agents. Yet. For a runner's contract to end, he usually has to be wearing down, injury-prone, or untested. There are some interesting options like Ahman Green, Dominic Rhodes, and Chris Brown, but they all have question marks.

Our list of restricted free agents, possible cap casualties, and trade candidates is much more interesting. Michael Turner of the Chargers is a fantasy football star waiting to happen – if San Diego is willing to let him go. Willis McGahee, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, and Clinton Portis could possibly be acquired for the right price. Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, and Travis Henry will be available for free if they can't restructure their current deals.

There may not be many true "workhorse" backs available, but the NFL is slowly getting back to preferring a timeshare in the backfield. There are plenty of worthy committee members available for interested teams.

Note: Click here for my quarterback preview.

Unrestricted Free Agents

1. Ahman Green, Packers - Green enjoyed a solid comeback season, but wore down with only 3.4 yards-per-carry in the second half of the year. Green is versatile and would be better off sharing the workload. The Packers may decide it's time to start fresh and let him leave.

2. Chris Brown, Titans - A promising career was derailed in Tennessee by incessant injuries and a bad attitude entering 2006. Brown wears down and isn't great near the goal. Still, he's an explosive player who would be a great third-down back in tandem with a bruiser. His style would fit zone blocking teams like Houston, Green Bay, and Denver well.

3. Dominic Rhodes, Colts - The playoffs made Dominic Rhodes a lot of money. He's now likely to be overpaid by a team hoping he runs like he did in January 2007 as opposed to his weak efforts in the 2005 and 2006 season. We doubt the Colts could afford to keep him.

4. Ron Dayne, Texans - After the best month of his career (429 yards in four games), Dayne damaged his free agency value by sitting out Week 17. He's always nicked up. It's hard to imagine another team would want him more than the Texans.

5. Najeh Davenport, Steelers - Pittsburgh's own Rocco DeMaro believes the Steelers will want Davenport back. There weren't many teams interested last off-season and it appears he'll never be a starter in the NFL like I imagined.

6. Musa Smith, Ravens - There's a lot of talent here, but Smith just can't stay healthy. He's a fine target as a third-down back because he'll come so cheaply.

7. Sammy Morris, Dolphins - Versatile and intelligent, Morris can fill a variety of roles. He does plenty of things well enough, but doesn't excel at any of them. He seems like the kind of player Philadelphia and New England would be interested in.

8. Justin Griffith, Falcons - A quality fullback/third-tailback option. He'll get a starting job somewhere.

9. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles - Buckhalter was a great story last season, but most teams will be afraid of his knee surgeries. A return to Philadelphia is the most likely scenario.

10. Anthony Thomas, Bills - Had a serviceable three-game run as a starter in which he compiled 299 total yards in three games. I'm shocked at the positive things I found written about Thomas in my notebook. Dick Jauron may want him back to play behind a starter to be named later.

11. TJ Duckett, Redskins - Sending two third-round picks for Duckett was the worst trade of 2006. He isn't guaranteed to stay in the league this season.

12. Stephen Davis, Rams - His comeback from microfracture surgery was solid, but he still may not get a job in 2007.

13. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals - Hasn't topped three yards-per-carry in two seasons.

14. Mike Alstott, Bucs - Probably will retire.

15. LaBrandon Toefield, Jaguars
16. Tony Fisher, Rams
17. Patrick Pass, Patriots

Restricted Free Agents

1. Michael Turner, Chargers – Fantasy owners are always looking for the new stud running back. Michael Turner should be that guy, but will it be in 2007 or 2008? Chargers GM A.J. Smith loves acquiring draft picks, so he'll listen to offers for Turner. I may be wrong, but it seems unlikely that anyone would give up a first round pick for Turner. Why not just draft your own guy? It would be cheaper because Turner will almost certainly require a contract extension.

There is virtually no chance someone will sign Turner away with an offer sheet. San Diego will place a first-round tender on him, if not a first-and-third-round tender. Both New York teams have reportedly shown interest, and Turner played under Jets coordinator Kurt Schottenheimer in San Diego. Baltimore is a great fit. In the end, I think San Diego will keep their valuable LT2 insurance unless they are blown away by an offer. I give Turner a 60-40 chance of staying put.

2. Maurice Hicks, 49ers - San Francisco should welcome third-down type back into the fold.

3. Artose Pinner, Vikings - The one-week wonder could stick because Minnesota has been so hot and cold on Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason.

4. Shaud Williams, Bills - May not get a contract.

Trade Candidates

I covered all of these guys in my Off-season lowdown a few weeks ago, so you'll get the short version here.

1. Clinton Portis, Redskins - Washington may poke around the trade market, but Portis wouldn't be that cheap to move because of cap issues. He's not the problem on the Redskins offense.

2. Willis McGahee, Bills - At this point, I would be surprised if Willis McGahee was on the Bills in 2007. The team's website has said as much a few times. McGahee will probably want a contract extension with any possible move.

It's uncertain how other teams will view McGahee. He isn't great in the passing game and has a 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Green Bay, Cleveland, and both New York teams are possibilities.

3. Thomas Jones, Bears - Jones would fit great on the Giants or any team that needed someone to share the load, especially on passing downs. Unless Chicago gets a first-day pick, they may as well hold on to him.

4. Deuce McAllister, Saints - He's been mentioned in trade rumors, but we're not sure why the Saints would mess with what's working. Maybe next off-season.

5. Julius Jones, Cowboys - It all depends on what the new coach wants to do. Perhaps Norv Turner could turn Jones' career around.

6. Ricky Williams, Dolphins - New coach Cam Cameron seems open to keeping Ricky around. We bet that would change if someone offers a mid-round pick for him. Considering his history, that seems unlikely.

7. Tatum Bell, Broncos – Mike Shanahan was disappointed in Tatum Bell's fumbles at the end of the year. Denver should look aggressively to upgrade, and could be involved in the bigger names on this list. If nothing works out in free agency, they can wait for the draft. The Bell and Bell backfield isn't a terrible fallback option.

Cap Casualty Candidates

1. Lamont Jordan, Raiders – Jordan was a bust last season, but so was the whole Raiders offense. He may bristle at taking a small paycut, but I just don't see Oakland giving up offensive talent for free. He will probably stay in Oakland.

2. Travis Henry, Titans – Tennessee has to restructure Henry's contract. While it makes sense for both sides to come to a deal, Henry has never hit free agency as a pro. He may want to see what he can earn coming off a strong season. And do the Titans want to make a huge investment a year after drafting Lendale White?

3. Deshaun Foster, Panthers – While cutting Foster makes some sense to us, all indications from the Panthers are that he will stay.

4. Corey Dillon, Patriots – Dillon does not seem ready to be asked to take a paycut. That's his only chance of staying in New England. It would be a minor upset if he's back.

5. Jamal Lewis, Ravens – If Lewis didn't like the market for his services last off-season, he isn't likely to enjoy this one either. It will be a tough transition for him to become a backup, but that's what is likely to happen.

6. Kevan Barlow, Jets – Certain to get cut. Not so certain to get re-signed.

7. Mike Anderson, Ravens – He's likely to stay unless Baltimore loads up at the position.

8. Derrick Blaylock, Jets – Will have trouble finding a job. Could fit in St. Louis or somewhere looking for a

Teams Looking for Running Backs

Running back is the easiest position in the NFL to fill via the draft, so teams can be cautious in free agency. Even franchises that need a starter can sign a backup type and hope to find a gem on day one of the draft.

1. Packers - Ahman Green is an unrestricted free agent. Reports came out early in the off-season that a contract was close, but perhaps Green Bay is reconsidering after reviewing how badly Green tired in the second half of the season. We think it's time to start over. Vernand Morency could be a nice third-down back, but he's not a starter.

2. Browns - Cleveland would seemingly prefer Reuben Droughns to be a backup or a fullback. Jason Wright won't ever get 62 carries in a season again. Cleveland owns the third or fourth pick in the draft. If they don't make a splash at running back in free agency, they will probably draft Adrian Peterson.

3. Ravens - Musa Smith is a free agent and can't stay healthy. Mike Anderson is a highly paid backup, but should return. Jamal Lewis is due a $5 million bonus and will be released. While it's possible Baltimore could bring Lewis back, they are as likely as any team to aggressively look for a new runner in free agency.

They like bruisers, so Michael Turner, Corey Dillon, and Ricky Williams are all possibilities. They also could get involved in the McGahee sweepstakes.

3. Bills - At this point, I'll be surprised if Willis McGahee isn't traded this off-season. Anthony Thomas is a free agent, so Buffalo will be starting from scratch. They could re-sign Thomas and add a better talent to start, whether through free agency or the draft.

4. Jets - Kevan Barlow and Derrick Blaylock are cooked. Cedric Houston is Just A Guy, so that means the Jets will look for someone to pair with Leon Washington. We believe that Washington could grow into a primary role like Brian Westbrook, but the Jets probably don't want to bet the farm on it.

5. Texans - Domanick Davis/Williams is a mystery. The Texans will be pleasantly surprised if he makes the roster. Wali Lundy has potential to be a decent backup, while Samkon Gado and Chris Taylor aren't guaranteed roster spots. Ron Dayne is a free agent and there is a good chance he'll return. Who will want him more? But Houston needs a true starter and it's someone who hasn't played for them before.

6. Giants - There are questions about Brandon Jacobs' ability to handle the load by himself. At the very least, New York should pair him with a solid third-down back. Dominic Rhodes, Musa Smith, and Ahman Green are all possibilities.

7. Broncos - Mike Shanahan noted at his season-ending presser that Tatum Bell had a higher yards-per-carry average than Laurence Maroney. It was Bell's fumbles that did him in. Mike Shanahan will add talent to the position through free agency or the draft, possibly both. Chris Brown, Julius Jones, and Ricky Williams could all be fits.

8. Lions - Kevin Jones' foot might be healed in time for the 2007 season, but no one knows for sure. Brian Calhoun, his backup, is coming off a torn ACL. The Lions should be interested in a veteran to hold down the fort during the summer.

9. Titans - Travis Henry's contract will need to be restructured in order for him to stay. It makes sense for both sides to work out a deal. Other than Henry, Lendale White is the only decent option on the roster.

10. Eagles - Correll Buckhalter is a free agent and there's a good chance he'll be back in Philadelphia. That may not prevent the Eagles from looking around for a complement to Brian Westbrook. They usually save money at running back, so don't expect a big splash.

11. Steelers- Willie Parker hasn't been much of a factor on passing downs. Najeh Davenport is a free agent and Verron Haynes is coming off a torn ACL, so Pittsburgh could use some depth.

12. Vikings - On paper, Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason look like decent backups, but Brad Childress seems unwilling to use them. He should fine someone he likes.

13. Raiders - LaMont Jordan is still under contract and is likely to stay. Justin Fargas showed he could be a passable backup. More talent wouldn't hurt, but it's not a priority for Oakland. A mid-to-late round draft pick makes sense.

14. Seahawks - Seattle should either use Maurice Morris in passing situations more or start grooming an heir apparent to Shaun Alexander.

15. Rams - Steven Jackson is a hoss, but an upgrade over Stephen Davis could help keep him fresh. Marshall Faulk seems likely to stay retired.

16. Colts - If Dominic Rhodes leaves, the Colts may look for a veteran backup to Joseph Addai. It would be a high-upside spot for fantasy leaguers.

17. Falcons - Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood are a decent twosome, but will they fit Atlanta's new scheme? Bobby Petrino may draft a power back or could sign one via free agency.

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Just search for sexyerica344, enjoy!