Fast Willie's Not-So-Fast Future?

Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal wonders how Willie Parker's fractured fibula will affect his future:

The next few reports regarding Willie Parker's broken leg will be key. Broken fibulas can vary widely in recovery time. For some players, it's a simple break and they are fine in six-to-eight weeks. Considering Parker's huge workload this year, getting 80 fewer carries this season might not be the worst thing in the world for him long term.

Some breaks, especially if they include the ankle, are much trickier. As a Parker owner in a dynasty league that was planning to build my offseason by dealing him when his value was still high, I am hoping for the best.

I don't think the Steelers should be overly concerned about the injury. With poor passing game skills and a 4.1 average on the ground, Parker is pretty easy to replace. We've seen all season that running backs are the most easily replaceable position in football. Pittsburgh's sagging defense looks a lot more vulnerable.

Since most dynasty leaguers don't play in playoff-leagues (unfortunately), Parker's injury is more a matter of figuring out his future value as opposed to his present value.

I've had Willie Parker as a "sell" since early this season. Before this week, he still had enough cache as the "NFL's leading rusher" to bring back another talented starting RB. If you could find someone who was willing to look at his stats and come to the conclusion that touchdowns always follow yards (which is very often the case), then selling was a no-brainer.

Yes, in most non-Fred Taylor cases, touchdowns follow yards. Better to bet on that scenario than the opposite: yards following touchdowns. However, as much as Fast Willie may have been due to break a few long touchdowns, it's worth noting the change in Najeh Davenport's role as well as the change in the Steelers' red zone philosophy post-Cowher.

In his career year last season, Parker racked up nearly 1,500 rushing yards and 16 total TDs. Coming into the 2007 season, you probably had every right to expect Parker to repeat those numbers again this season. However, by mid-season you should have taken note of Davenport's expanding role allowing him to usurp most of Parker's value in both short-yardage and the passing game -- two alarming negatives. Additionally, it was apparent that the Tomlin Steelers were going to take advantage of Ben Roethlisberger's playmaking ability in the red zone as I mentioned on footballguys.com last week:

Roethlisberger has always been a great redzone QB. When the Steelers had Bettis and Cowher, you knew they were going to try to pound it in more often than not. But on the times when they chose to mix it up, Big Ben was Favre-ian in his redzone ability. He has the mobility, creativity, size, arm strength, and decisiveness to get the ball to great redzone weapons like Hines Ward and Heath Miller.

Now that Bettis and Cowher are gone, Parker is less than ideal for the Steelers inside the 10; meanwhile, Big Ben is more experienced, and I think they've become a redzone passing team like the Packers have always been. They'll pound it in when they have to, but a QB that can pass inside the 10 like Manning, Brady, or Favre gives the offense a much better chance to score TDs instead of settling for field goals (as opposed to a Marc Bulger who is poo inside the 10 yard line).

I'd be careful buying low on Willie Parker. It isn't simply the statistical variation that has him scoring fewer TDs, it's also in the way they're using Najeh. It's kind of like saying that Fred Taylor is due to score more touchdowns because the yardage is there. Are you sure about that?

So where does that leave Willie Parker owners now that he's injured? He's not likely to have much off-season trade value with the injury, his lack of TDs, and Davenport's role in the offense. I think you have to hold onto him and hope for the best in '08 unless you can get another solid starting RB from somebody willing to bank on Parker returning to 2006 form.

For those few dynasty leaguers in playoff leagues, Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders had some interesting info regarding the effects of Parker's injury on the Steelers' playoff outlook:

Personally, I don’t think the Steelers will miss a beat. Parker’s not a particularly impressive back, and the workload he’d taken this year had seemed to sap some of his speed in recent weeks. His -11.5 DVOA was nothing to write home about, while Najeh Davenport’s DVOA is an immaculate 24.8%. Although he was ripping apart a very mediocre Rams defense tonight, Davenport’s mix of size and strength has impressed onlookers, myself included, in the past. The only thing that’s appeared to come between him and success has been playing time: He holds onto the ball (fumbling twice since 2003), he’s a good pass blocker (he played fullback at Miami) and receiver, and although he runs a little high and sometimes seeks out contact instead of avoiding it, he’s not a player the Steelers going to suddenly collapse with as their featured back. Oh, and he pooped in someone’s closet once. But, hey, let he who is without sin cast the first… um… Najeh Davenport, everybody! Tip your waitresses.