QUOTE (thehornet @ Oct 30 2007, 10:49 PM) 
this is a fabulous post. thanks. I think all football fans regardless of their feelings about the Pats should appreciate this write-up.
Aw shucks, Hornet
. QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 30 2007, 11:00 PM)
Few WR rankings I don't really agree with.
I think S. Moss in tier 3 is entirely too high. There are just too many issues, most importantly inconsistency, to be ranked this high. I don't think either his talent nor his situation warrant a spot that high. The only thing going for him are his "stats" from a couple of years ago.
Likewise, both Cotchery and B. Marshall have shown more talent and consistency and should probably be in tier 3 already. I also think Roddy White needs to move up as it seems he's starting to make that jump, even with the obstacles of his current team and passing situation. Dynasties are about talent, and if his situation improves, he could be a real force. I would easily take him over a guy like Kevin Curtis who is in a higher tier that has less talent but is just currently in a more favorable situation.
I also have a problem with the TE stuff, moreso from a semantics point of view. I just don't see how a guy like Heath Miller (and others) can be included in a tier 1 along with Gates. There's a reason guys like Peyton and Brady and AP and LT are separated from others at their position. The #1 TE tier needs to be shrunk down considerably, even if it only holds Gates. I would argue that only Winslow, Witten, and Gonzo deserve to be there with Gates, if at all.
Still love the thread.
I think S. Moss in tier 3 is entirely too high. There are just too many issues, most importantly inconsistency, to be ranked this high. I don't think either his talent nor his situation warrant a spot that high. The only thing going for him are his "stats" from a couple of years ago.
Likewise, both Cotchery and B. Marshall have shown more talent and consistency and should probably be in tier 3 already. I also think Roddy White needs to move up as it seems he's starting to make that jump, even with the obstacles of his current team and passing situation. Dynasties are about talent, and if his situation improves, he could be a real force. I would easily take him over a guy like Kevin Curtis who is in a higher tier that has less talent but is just currently in a more favorable situation.
I also have a problem with the TE stuff, moreso from a semantics point of view. I just don't see how a guy like Heath Miller (and others) can be included in a tier 1 along with Gates. There's a reason guys like Peyton and Brady and AP and LT are separated from others at their position. The #1 TE tier needs to be shrunk down considerably, even if it only holds Gates. I would argue that only Winslow, Witten, and Gonzo deserve to be there with Gates, if at all.
Still love the thread.
Thanks for joining in again, gianmarco.
That's surprising about Santana Moss. I'm used to being called out by his supporters for having him too low. I know I've been doing too much copying and pasting of material from earlier in the thread, but there's a good reason for it. I feel the same way about Santana Moss now as I did when I wrote this back in April:
QUOTE
Remember the Seinfeld episode where Frank Costanza interprets a line from the father of his old Korean girlfriend? "This guy......this is not my kind of guy." Well, that's how I feel about Santana Moss.
I can see the temptation to compare him to Steve Smith; however, I see three major differences between the diminutive game breakers. Smith is much better at going up in traffic and coming down with the ball. Much better. Despite his size, Smith catches in traffic as well as any WR in the league. Secondly, Smith is superior inside the red zone. Partially due to the point above, he is looked to more heavily in the end zone than Moss is. Finally, Delhomme locks onto Steve Smith. This could be a problem if Carr takes over, but I don't think Campbell will try to get the ball to Moss as much as Delhomme does with Smith. And you appear to have much more faith in Jason Campbell overall as a QB than I do.
One last point to consider is the "consistency" debate. I know there are some smart people on these boards who consider the WR inconsistency label a myth. I, however, disagree. I do think Santana Moss has been a very unreliable fantasy contributor, and that's a problem in dynasty leagues moreso than redraft. He has been unreliable not only from game to game but also from season to season. I could change my mind on this one in the future, but he's going to have to show me before I do. He could clearly finish top 10 this year and in the process make me look foolish for awhile...until he finishes 30th again in '08.
Who would you move him ahead of? I think in any given year he could be a better choice than Plax, Housh and others ahead. I just worry about him more in dynasty leagues. I don't know how lucky I feel about Santana this year...and that's really the bottom line: Do I want a roll of the dice every year as my #1 or #2 WR?
I can see the temptation to compare him to Steve Smith; however, I see three major differences between the diminutive game breakers. Smith is much better at going up in traffic and coming down with the ball. Much better. Despite his size, Smith catches in traffic as well as any WR in the league. Secondly, Smith is superior inside the red zone. Partially due to the point above, he is looked to more heavily in the end zone than Moss is. Finally, Delhomme locks onto Steve Smith. This could be a problem if Carr takes over, but I don't think Campbell will try to get the ball to Moss as much as Delhomme does with Smith. And you appear to have much more faith in Jason Campbell overall as a QB than I do.
One last point to consider is the "consistency" debate. I know there are some smart people on these boards who consider the WR inconsistency label a myth. I, however, disagree. I do think Santana Moss has been a very unreliable fantasy contributor, and that's a problem in dynasty leagues moreso than redraft. He has been unreliable not only from game to game but also from season to season. I could change my mind on this one in the future, but he's going to have to show me before I do. He could clearly finish top 10 this year and in the process make me look foolish for awhile...until he finishes 30th again in '08.
Who would you move him ahead of? I think in any given year he could be a better choice than Plax, Housh and others ahead. I just worry about him more in dynasty leagues. I don't know how lucky I feel about Santana this year...and that's really the bottom line: Do I want a roll of the dice every year as my #1 or #2 WR?
Regardless of Santana Moss' continued inconsistency, I think it would be awfully hard to sell that low on a player with his talent. If I had Cotchery or Brandon Marshall in a dynasty league, I wouldn't hesitate to trade either of them for Moss. I don't think Cotchery's best will ever be as good as Moss' best, and that's what I'm after.
RE: Roddy White / Kevin Curtis. I don't believe for a second that Roddy White is more talented than Kevin Curtis. I've been very impressed by Curtis' play this year, and he continues to be consistently targeted by McNabb to go along with being more of a threat to break open a play than Roddy White....or most other WRs in the NFL. I've seen White play quite a few times this year, and there's no question he's emerged as a quality WR as well as the #1 in Atlanta. I'll probably continue to move him up as the season goes along, but I wouldn't trade Kevin Curtis for him.
RE: Tight ends. I had been planning on breaking up that top tier, and we all know Gates is the best by far....but is there really any point in having a player in a tier by himself?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 10:39 PM)
We've been on the same page regarding LenDale all along. We were higher on him than anybody else in the offseason. Apparently, we were both down on his prospects a couple weeks ago when he was rushing like the AFC's version of Cedric Benson. I think I need to see him play once or twice to get a good feel for his value. On the positive side, he can give a team a workhorse back to sustain a rushing attack. On the negative side, is he going to be too much of a plodder? Does he lack any semblance of explosiveness? Chris Henry has looked surprisingly impressive in limited action. Will that be an issue for LenDale going forward? I'm going to give LenDale's situation some thought, but I don't think I'll have a truly good read on it until I get to see him play a couple of times.
I always envisioned White becoming a Stephen Davis type and that seems to be what's happening. He's not explosive and he'll never make a lot of highlight reel runs, but he runs hard and he can break off 10-20 yard runs when he has a good hole. I think he looks pretty good. He's not explosive, but he has good feet and he's a load to bring down once he has a little bit of room to accelerate. You can check out some of his week 8 highlights on his player profile on NFL.com. They have an extensive library of videos now.
I'm not worried about Henry vulturing carries right now. White clearly seems to be the man right now and with the team winning most of its games, I doubt they're in any hurry to tinker with their personnel. Like I said, I look for White to finish as a top 15-20 RB. If he does that then he'll almost certainly be a consensus top 20 dynasty RB entering next season. He'll be a young back getting 300+ carries and producing.
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Oct 30 2007, 11:14 PM)
Agreed, Gates should be in a tier of his own. At no position is there such a clear cut #1. I dont think Gonzo should be in a tier with Witten and Winslow, due to his age.
P.S. How is this thread not pinned yet. It might very well be the single greatest thread in Shark pool history. Its a shame that some people might miss it, or have to wade through pages to find it with all the hidden ACF threads and other garbage posted here.
P.S. How is this thread not pinned yet. It might very well be the single greatest thread in Shark pool history. Its a shame that some people might miss it, or have to wade through pages to find it with all the hidden ACF threads and other garbage posted here.
Thanks Burning Sensation. Witten vs. Gonzo is a tough one. We've been anticipating that falloff from Gonzo for awhile, but he continues to dominate. Witten is very good, maybe even great, but don't you think he's been a bit over his head so far this season? We're talking about a TE who had one TD all of last season....fluky, sure. But his production early this season has a bit of that Dallas Clark flukiness ring to it as well. I think that one probably depends on owner situation.
On second thought, I think Witten vs. Heap is just as interesting. There's no question in my mind that Heap is more talented, and he always produces when he plays. It's just that Heap is always dealing with a nagging injury, and Witten is in a drastically better offense.
Thanks again.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 11:11 PM)
RE: Tight ends. I had been planning on breaking up that top tier, and we all know Gates is the best by far....but is there really any point in having a player in a tier by himself?
When a player has dominated a position like he has for 4 straight years, yes. To me, it's just incorrect to see him lumped with so many other TE's. Heck, you have 11 guys in the 1st tier. In a 12 team league, it's like saying you really don't have to bother getting a TE for a very long time. There's a reason Gates goes in the 3rd round of many drafts and you can get guys like Heath Miller in the 9th or 10th. They simply aren't in the same tier and never will be. Yes, Witten has matched his production this year. Yes, a couple other TE's have been close the last few years. But Gates is far and above the #1 TE and I would be hard-pressed to trade him for many, many other skilled players that are near the top of the rankings in their respective position, meaning RB's, WR's, and QB's. I wouldn't trade Gates for some of the tier 3 and even tier 2 RB's, WR's and QB's. He's that good. If there is a player at any position that deserves his own tier, it's Gates. But, if you want to make it a tier and put other players with him, at least limit it to 2 or 3 that truly are in the vicinity of Gates. Watson, Miller, Clark....not even close.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 31 2007, 12:20 AM)
I always envisioned White becoming a Stephen Davis type and that seems to be what's happening. He's not explosive and he'll never make a lot of highlight reel runs, but he runs hard and he can break off 10-20 yard runs when he has a good hole. I think he looks pretty good. He's not explosive, but he has good feet and he's a load to bring down once he has a little bit of room to accelerate. You can check out some of his week 8 highlights on his player profile on NFL.com. They have an extensive library of videos now.
I'm not worried about Henry vulturing carries right now. White clearly seems to be the man right now and with the team winning most of its games, I doubt they're in any hurry to tinker with their personnel. Like I said, I look for White to finish as a top 15-20 RB. If he does that then he'll almost certainly be a consensus top 20 dynasty RB entering next season. He'll be a young back getting 300+ carries and producing.
I'm not worried about Henry vulturing carries right now. White clearly seems to be the man right now and with the team winning most of its games, I doubt they're in any hurry to tinker with their personnel. Like I said, I look for White to finish as a top 15-20 RB. If he does that then he'll almost certainly be a consensus top 20 dynasty RB entering next season. He'll be a young back getting 300+ carries and producing.
Stephen Davis is an interesting comparison. I think he had more wiggle AND more pop than LenDale, but maybe Stephen Davis is his upside in a best-case scenario.
300+ carries ---> You think the Titans will be that committed to him? It wasn't until Chris Brown went down that White started to see a full workload, but to his credit he's taken advantage of it. It seems like you also trust that his weight/marijuana/dedication and all-around immaturity won't be a problem going forward. Wasn't it just a few months ago that he was Jeffrey Lebowski in shoulder pads?
That's where we might differ. You seem awfully sure that the Titans have found the workhorse back of their present and future. I still have lingering doubts that the Titans believe that, or even that he's reliable enough to be more than a wildcard. Honestly, I think this week is the perfect time to trade LenDale White in a dynasty league...
As far as Moss goes, I've always been down on him as well. To me, he's Chris Chambers in the NFC. His value is built around 2 good years out of 6 (going on 7). Yes, his 2 good years were pretty nice, but his others are downright not good. In the 3 other years aside from his rookie year, he caught only 30, 45, and 55 balls. That's just not good and is a sign that he can potentially just not get the ball enough to do well. Now, halfway into this year, he's again only caught 20 balls and is struggling. In the last 3 1/2 yrs, he's had only 2005 to show for to make him worth anything. Yes, we've seen his best, but I seriously doubt we ever see that again for the rest of his career. The chances of it happening are far less than the chances of him continuing to disappoint with his current production and trend. That's not a WR that belong as high as Tier #3 in your rankings. I would take guys like Bowe and Holmes in a heartbeat for him. Welker too. And you may not like Marshall or Cotchery, but if anything, Cotchery has shown the consistency to be counted on which carries a lot of value in a dynasty.
I guess my biggest problem with S. Moss (and the few other players like him) is that he's difficult to get rid of or bench because of what he could POSSIBLY do based on his past. And week after week, he brings nothing to the table and is more harmful to a dynasty team than helpful. But you look back at what he did and can't bring yourself to cut bait. Ask Chris Chamber's owners (and now other S. Moss owners). It's a false sense of security that you just need him to step up and you're solid at the WR position when it really should be a position I'd be looking to upgrade immediately in order to perform better overall for my team. There are those few guys that I would feel bad if I got rid of them and watch them blow up (like Gore as you mentioned). S. Moss just isn't one of those guys. I'd gladly take my chances that he doesn't and settle for a slightly lower talented guy that at least helps my team out from week to week.
p.s.--I'm not sure how much you've watched Cotchery, but I actually think he's one of the more talented WR's in the league and is only a #2 because he's playing with Coles. If Clemens can really do what some people are saying, they may end up being one of the top WR duos in the league. I became a big fan of his since last year and have watched him make lots and lots of tough catches and make key plays and do nothing but instill confidence in the QB throwing to him. That's the reason he catches so many balls each game, especially late in the game when it counts. It's not a fluke that he does this. I look at him very similarly to what TJ Housh is to the Bengals right now. The only thing holding him back now is the Jets and their QB situation.
I guess my biggest problem with S. Moss (and the few other players like him) is that he's difficult to get rid of or bench because of what he could POSSIBLY do based on his past. And week after week, he brings nothing to the table and is more harmful to a dynasty team than helpful. But you look back at what he did and can't bring yourself to cut bait. Ask Chris Chamber's owners (and now other S. Moss owners). It's a false sense of security that you just need him to step up and you're solid at the WR position when it really should be a position I'd be looking to upgrade immediately in order to perform better overall for my team. There are those few guys that I would feel bad if I got rid of them and watch them blow up (like Gore as you mentioned). S. Moss just isn't one of those guys. I'd gladly take my chances that he doesn't and settle for a slightly lower talented guy that at least helps my team out from week to week.
p.s.--I'm not sure how much you've watched Cotchery, but I actually think he's one of the more talented WR's in the league and is only a #2 because he's playing with Coles. If Clemens can really do what some people are saying, they may end up being one of the top WR duos in the league. I became a big fan of his since last year and have watched him make lots and lots of tough catches and make key plays and do nothing but instill confidence in the QB throwing to him. That's the reason he catches so many balls each game, especially late in the game when it counts. It's not a fluke that he does this. I look at him very similarly to what TJ Housh is to the Bengals right now. The only thing holding him back now is the Jets and their QB situation.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 11:35 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 31 2007, 12:20 AM)
I always envisioned White becoming a Stephen Davis type and that seems to be what's happening. He's not explosive and he'll never make a lot of highlight reel runs, but he runs hard and he can break off 10-20 yard runs when he has a good hole. I think he looks pretty good. He's not explosive, but he has good feet and he's a load to bring down once he has a little bit of room to accelerate. You can check out some of his week 8 highlights on his player profile on NFL.com. They have an extensive library of videos now.
I'm not worried about Henry vulturing carries right now. White clearly seems to be the man right now and with the team winning most of its games, I doubt they're in any hurry to tinker with their personnel. Like I said, I look for White to finish as a top 15-20 RB. If he does that then he'll almost certainly be a consensus top 20 dynasty RB entering next season. He'll be a young back getting 300+ carries and producing.
I'm not worried about Henry vulturing carries right now. White clearly seems to be the man right now and with the team winning most of its games, I doubt they're in any hurry to tinker with their personnel. Like I said, I look for White to finish as a top 15-20 RB. If he does that then he'll almost certainly be a consensus top 20 dynasty RB entering next season. He'll be a young back getting 300+ carries and producing.
Stephen Davis is an interesting comparison. I think he had more wiggle AND more pop than LenDale, but maybe Stephen Davis is his upside in a best-case scenario.
300+ carries ---> You think the Titans will be that committed to him? It wasn't until Chris Brown went down that White started to see a full workload, but to his credit he's taken advantage of it. It seems like you also trust that his weight/marijuana/dedication and all-around immaturity won't be a problem going forward. Wasn't it just a few months ago that he was Jeffrey Lebowski in shoulder pads?
That's where we might differ. You seem awfully sure that the Titans have found the workhorse back of their present and future. I still have lingering doubts that the Titans believe that, or even that he's reliable enough to be more than a wildcard. Honestly, I think this week is the perfect time to trade LenDale White in a dynasty league...
My argument isn't necessarily that he's destined for stardom. I'm just saying that he's a buy as the dynasty RB27 because he'll likely be ranked closer to dynasty RB17 when the season ends. What you do with him at that point (buy/sell/hold) depends on your level of faith in him.
He's playing well with the heavy workload. The Titans are winning. No reason to expect significant change this season IMO. Fisher usually sticks with what works and has been reluctant to replace his starting RB midseason. So regardless of what happens in the future, White should be money this year and should have a high consensus ranking heading into next year.
Holy crap. This is good stuff.
This may be the last great thread in this place.
This may be the last great thread in this place.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 31 2007, 12:40 AM)
As far as Moss goes, I've always been down on him as well. To me, he's Chris Chambers in the NFC. His value is built around 2 good years out of 6 (going on 7). Yes, his 2 good years were pretty nice, but his others are downright not good. In the 3 other years aside from his rookie year, he caught only 30, 45, and 55 balls. That's just not good and is a sign that he can potentially just not get the ball enough to do well. Now, halfway into this year, he's again only caught 20 balls and is struggling. In the last 3 1/2 yrs, he's had only 2005 to show for to make him worth anything. Yes, we've seen his best, but I seriously doubt we ever see that again for the rest of his career. The chances of it happening are far less than the chances of him continuing to disappoint with his current production and trend. That's not a WR that belong as high as Tier #3 in your rankings. I would take guys like Bowe and Holmes in a heartbeat for him. Welker too. And you may not like Marshall or Cotchery, but if anything, Cotchery has shown the consistency to be counted on which carries a lot of value in a dynasty.
I guess my biggest problem with S. Moss (and the few other players like him) is that he's difficult to get rid of or bench because of what he could POSSIBLY do based on his past. And week after week, he brings nothing to the table and is more harmful to a dynasty team than helpful. But you look back at what he did and can't bring yourself to cut bait. Ask Chris Chamber's owners (and now other S. Moss owners). It's a false sense of security that you just need him to step up and you're solid at the WR position when it really should be a position I'd be looking to upgrade immediately in order to perform better overall for my team. There are those few guys that I would feel bad if I got rid of them and watch them blow up (like Gore as you mentioned). S. Moss just isn't one of those guys. I'd gladly take my chances that he doesn't and settle for a slightly lower talented guy that at least helps my team out from week to week.
p.s.--I'm not sure how much you've watched Cotchery, but I actually think he's one of the more talented WR's in the league and is only a #2 because he's playing with Coles. If Clemens can really do what some people are saying, they may end up being one of the top WR duos in the league. I became a big fan of his since last year and have watched him make lots and lots of tough catches and make key plays and do nothing but instill confidence in the QB throwing to him. That's the reason he catches so many balls each game, especially late in the game when it counts. It's not a fluke that he does this. The only thing holding him back now is the Jets.
I guess my biggest problem with S. Moss (and the few other players like him) is that he's difficult to get rid of or bench because of what he could POSSIBLY do based on his past. And week after week, he brings nothing to the table and is more harmful to a dynasty team than helpful. But you look back at what he did and can't bring yourself to cut bait. Ask Chris Chamber's owners (and now other S. Moss owners). It's a false sense of security that you just need him to step up and you're solid at the WR position when it really should be a position I'd be looking to upgrade immediately in order to perform better overall for my team. There are those few guys that I would feel bad if I got rid of them and watch them blow up (like Gore as you mentioned). S. Moss just isn't one of those guys. I'd gladly take my chances that he doesn't and settle for a slightly lower talented guy that at least helps my team out from week to week.
p.s.--I'm not sure how much you've watched Cotchery, but I actually think he's one of the more talented WR's in the league and is only a #2 because he's playing with Coles. If Clemens can really do what some people are saying, they may end up being one of the top WR duos in the league. I became a big fan of his since last year and have watched him make lots and lots of tough catches and make key plays and do nothing but instill confidence in the QB throwing to him. That's the reason he catches so many balls each game, especially late in the game when it counts. It's not a fluke that he does this. The only thing holding him back now is the Jets.
Yeah, I gave a lot of thought to leapfrogging Moss with Bowe & Holmes last week. I'll probably do it for good this week.
But I do think Santana Moss is a "buy" right now in dynasty leagues as opposed to worrying about getting rid of him or getting upset because you can't rely on his production. I'd buy and stash him for a couple weeks just like I would have bought and stashed Lee Evans two weeks ago.
I do need to see Cotchery some more. From what I have seen, I just don't think he's ever going to have that 10+ TD season or 1300+ yards. And I disagree with you that Santana Moss can't do that again. I would never *count* on Moss to do it, but if the price is low enough, I'm rolling the dice and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. It's not like he's lost the talent; he's just been held down by injuries, a greenhorn QB, and an under-performing offense.
QUOTE (EBF @ Oct 31 2007, 12:41 AM)
My argument isn't necessarily that he's destined for stardom. I'm just saying that he's a buy as the dynasty RB27 because he'll likely be ranked closer to dynasty RB17 when the season ends. What you do with him at that point (buy/sell/hold) depends on your level of faith in him.
He's playing well with the heavy workload. The Titans are winning. No reason to expect significant change this season IMO. Fisher usually sticks with what works and has been reluctant to replace his starting RB midseason. So regardless of what happens in the future, White should be money this year and should have a high consensus ranking heading into next year.
He's playing well with the heavy workload. The Titans are winning. No reason to expect significant change this season IMO. Fisher usually sticks with what works and has been reluctant to replace his starting RB midseason. So regardless of what happens in the future, White should be money this year and should have a high consensus ranking heading into next year.
all together, and especially the point about Fisher sticking with what works. I hadn't given a whole lot of thought to that, but we're talking about bizarro Shanahan here. Fisher seems like he's anything but a tinkerer.But I'm still selling LenDale White if I can package him to a true believer for a better talent. Before the season, I liked him as a wild card to build value. Right now, I like him a lot less as a RB I have to rely on.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 12:22 AM)
QUOTE (Burning Sensation @ Oct 30 2007, 11:14 PM)
Agreed, Gates should be in a tier of his own. At no position is there such a clear cut #1. I dont think Gonzo should be in a tier with Witten and Winslow, due to his age.
P.S. How is this thread not pinned yet. It might very well be the single greatest thread in Shark pool history. Its a shame that some people might miss it, or have to wade through pages to find it with all the hidden ACF threads and other garbage posted here.
P.S. How is this thread not pinned yet. It might very well be the single greatest thread in Shark pool history. Its a shame that some people might miss it, or have to wade through pages to find it with all the hidden ACF threads and other garbage posted here.
Thanks Burning Sensation. Witten vs. Gonzo is a tough one. We've been anticipating that falloff from Gonzo for awhile, but he continues to dominate. Witten is very good, maybe even great, but don't you think he's been a bit over his head so far this season? We're talking about a TE who had one TD all of last season....fluky, sure. But his production early this season has a bit of that Dallas Clark flukiness ring to it as well. I think that one probably depends on owner situation.
On second thought, I think Witten vs. Heap is just as interesting. There's no question in my mind that Heap is more talented, and he always produces when he plays. It's just that Heap is always dealing with a nagging injury, and Witten is in a drastically better offense.
Thanks again.
In the previous two years Witten had scored 6 TD's in each season. I think at this point it certainly appears his 1 TD last year was the "fluke". Witten is only 25, and Romo just signed a 6 year deal, seems that those two could have a good chemistry for some time. At the same time, as Wittens supporting cast seems to be helping his value, Gonzo and the Chiefs sems to be doing the opposite. TG is 31 and his team, and QB situation only seems to be getting worse.
The only dynasty TE i might argue is better than Witten right now is Winslow(of course other than Gates). Although KW's questionable decision making and injury history scare me a bit.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 11:49 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 30 2007, 10:27 PM)
I think Addai is clearly a tier 1 RB. I doubt there are many Gore owners out there right now that wouldnt jump all over a straight up trade for Addai. Dynasty or redraft
Redraft is a totally different story with these two players.
I don't own Gore or Addai. If I did own Gore in a dynasty league, I would not sell low just because he's had a disappointing first half. I would kick myself so hard if I traded him, and then he went back to playing like Frank Gore while the Colts worked Kenton Keith into the picture. I just can't bring myself to go crazy over Addai when he derives most of his value from his situation, and I still don't believe we've seen the end of Kenton Keith cutting into his production. From two weeks ago back on page 16, post #781:
QUOTE
You could make a good case for Addai to be higher, but I think it's pretty clear that Kenton Keith can do a pretty good Addai impersonation and may work his way into the mix more often...not to steal the job, but to provide rest for Addai in a Sammy Morris/Maroney or Portis/Betts kind of situation.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 08:25 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 11:49 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 30 2007, 10:27 PM)
I think Addai is clearly a tier 1 RB. I doubt there are many Gore owners out there right now that wouldnt jump all over a straight up trade for Addai. Dynasty or redraft
Redraft is a totally different story with these two players.
I don't own Gore or Addai. If I did own Gore in a dynasty league, I would not sell low just because he's had a disappointing first half. I would kick myself so hard if I traded him, and then he went back to playing like Frank Gore while the Colts worked Kenton Keith into the picture. I just can't bring myself to go crazy over Addai when he derives most of his value from his situation, and I still don't believe we've seen the end of Kenton Keith cutting into his production. From two weeks ago back on page 16, post #781:
QUOTE
You could make a good case for Addai to be higher, but I think it's pretty clear that Kenton Keith can do a pretty good Addai impersonation and may work his way into the mix more often...not to steal the job, but to provide rest for Addai in a Sammy Morris/Maroney or Portis/Betts kind of situation.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
I would much rather have Gore in my Dynasty League. In fact I can't figure out why you wouldn't.
QUOTE (benm3218 @ Oct 31 2007, 09:39 AM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 08:25 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 30 2007, 11:49 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 30 2007, 10:27 PM)
I think Addai is clearly a tier 1 RB. I doubt there are many Gore owners out there right now that wouldnt jump all over a straight up trade for Addai. Dynasty or redraft
Redraft is a totally different story with these two players.
I don't own Gore or Addai. If I did own Gore in a dynasty league, I would not sell low just because he's had a disappointing first half. I would kick myself so hard if I traded him, and then he went back to playing like Frank Gore while the Colts worked Kenton Keith into the picture. I just can't bring myself to go crazy over Addai when he derives most of his value from his situation, and I still don't believe we've seen the end of Kenton Keith cutting into his production. From two weeks ago back on page 16, post #781:
QUOTE
You could make a good case for Addai to be higher, but I think it's pretty clear that Kenton Keith can do a pretty good Addai impersonation and may work his way into the mix more often...not to steal the job, but to provide rest for Addai in a Sammy Morris/Maroney or Portis/Betts kind of situation.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I've always believed that it's a negative sign for dynasty value when a player's back-up can perform just as well in the offense as the starter. Interchangeable parts usually = ambiguous long term value. I do believe Addai is more talented than Keith, just as I believe Maroney is more talented than Morris and Portis more talented than Betts. Still, if a back-up can step in and do your job with the offense not missing a beat, then how valuable are you? It's that question which leads NFL teams to get their back-ups regular playing time in order to keep their starters fresh for the long haul of a 16-game + playoffs season.
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
I would much rather have Gore in my Dynasty League. In fact I can't figure out why you wouldn't.
Because Addai is young,talented, in a great system where the team invested a 1st rd pick in him, and is producing huge numbers right now. Hopefully that clears up why I would rather have him in a dynasty league
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 09:25 AM)
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
I already answered this question once, but I'll answer it again at your insistence. No. Absolutely not. I would not be all over that trade. I would not sell this low on Frank Gore just because he hasn't performed up to expectations for 7 games this season.
I doubt that I'm alone just because you value both players differently. Either way, it's not like I'm afraid of being alone on a player. I was pretty much alone on Ronnie Brown at the beginning of the season.
RE: Addai and splitting carries. I agree he'll be getting the bulk of the work provided he's healthy. I also agree that Clinton Portis and Laurence Maroney will get the bulk of the work provided they're healthy. In all three cases, I think it's bothersome in dynasty leagues that their backup can step in and do their job just as well.
I agree with F&L. That makes 2. He's not alone.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 31 2007, 10:38 AM)
I agree with F&L. That makes 2. He's not alone.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 10:32 AM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 09:25 AM)
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
I already answered this question once, but I'll answer it again at your insistence. No. Absolutely not. I would not be all over that trade. I would not sell this low on Frank Gore just because he hasn't performed up to expectations for 7 games this season.
I doubt that I'm alone just because you value both players differently. Either way, it's not like I'm afraid of being alone on a player. I was pretty much alone on Ronnie Brown at the beginning of the season.
RE: Addai and splitting carries. I agree he'll be getting the bulk of the work provided he's healthy. I also agree that Clinton Portis and Laurence Maroney will get the bulk of the work provided they're healthy. In all three cases, I think it's bothersome in dynasty leagues that their backup can step in and do their job just as well.
ok. I believe that if a back up can step in and be very productive, its just a tribute to how productive the system is ,making the regular starting rb more valuable, not less valuable imo. "alone" was the wrong word, I should have said minority. I respect your opinions and agree with a lot of your rankings, I just happen to disagree on this one
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 09:48 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 10:32 AM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 09:25 AM)
I think its clear that Addai is getting the bulk of the work provided hes healthy. The situation he is in is what makes him so valuable. This is fantasy football, and I dont think that situation, especially when talking about a young player taken in the 1st rd should take away from his value or ranking. The fact that Keith or probably any other half decent back can step in and be productive makes him more appealing imo because I think those back ups will come relatively cheap as handcuffs. Can you honestly tell me that if an Addai owner came to you and offered you Addai/Keith for Gore/Robinson that you wouldnt be all over that? If you say you wouldnt, I have to believe you are probably alone. I own both players. Gore in a keeper league, and redraft, Addai in a dynasty, and 2 redrafts. The decision would be easy for me
I already answered this question once, but I'll answer it again at your insistence. No. Absolutely not. I would not be all over that trade. I would not sell this low on Frank Gore just because he hasn't performed up to expectations for 7 games this season.
I doubt that I'm alone just because you value both players differently. Either way, it's not like I'm afraid of being alone on a player. I was pretty much alone on Ronnie Brown at the beginning of the season.
RE: Addai and splitting carries. I agree he'll be getting the bulk of the work provided he's healthy. I also agree that Clinton Portis and Laurence Maroney will get the bulk of the work provided they're healthy. In all three cases, I think it's bothersome in dynasty leagues that their backup can step in and do their job just as well.
ok. I believe that if a back up can step in and be very productive, its just a tribute to how productive the system is ,making the regular starting rb more valuable, not less valuable imo. "alone" was the wrong word, I should have said minority. I respect your opinions and agree with a lot of your rankings, I just happen to disagree on this one
The problem with this thinking is that you should lend heavier weight to talent rather than situation in a dynasty league. This is where dynasty leagues differ from redrafts and why a guy like L. Jordan has considerably more value in a redraft in 2007 than a dynasty in 2007. Things change very quickly in the NFL without any notice whatsoever. Who would have seen McGahee being in Baltimore in 2007 during last year? What about Jamal Lewis in Cleveland? How about Moss in NE? If you bailed on Moss because of his SITUATION in Oakland, you lost out considerably. What about Edge going to Arizona a couple of years ago? These are just a few examples. How about when you had Chester Taylor going into this year before they drafted AP? You had a top 10 fantasy back and now he's a backup in the blink of an eye because of 1 draft pick.
You never know what may change in the NFL. Right now, Addai is in the best situation possible and Gore is possibly in the worst situation possible. Even still, last year, Gore produced at a phenomenal level. Don't get me wrong, I think Addai is decent and an above-average back, but he's not Frank Gore in terms of talent-level, IMO. This is what the people who would rather have Gore think. At this point, I really think things could only get better for Gore and things could only get worse for Addai. All it would take is even a minor injury that keeps Addai out for 3-4 weeks and Keith stepping in and playing phenomenally for Addai to lose a lot of carries. It almost happened already.
Some of this also depends on your team's situation. If I were an Addai owner and in the hunt to win it all this year, would I trade Addai for Gore right now? Probably not. But, that's probably the only circumstance that I wouldn't. If you get the talent on your team, the situations will eventually work themselves out and your team will be better for it. This is why it was better to own MBIII than J. Jones from the beginning this year despite the fact that situation at the start of the year dictated otherwise.
The main thing I've learned so far from playing in a dynasty league is that Talent >>>>Situation. Ask Tatum Bell owners going into this year.
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
Love the work here F&L, this has been a great thread over the past year.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 09:19 AM)
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
When Gore entered college, he was thought to be one of the greatest RB talents to ever enter the college system. Yes, Gore suffered some major injuries in college. But there isn't a pro scout in the world that would tell you that Addai is as talented as Gore.
If you want to argue that Addai is in a much better situation than Gore, that is undeniable. But no way does Addai equal Gore in talent.
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 11:19 AM)
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
No, I'm not talking about Addai as if he's a pedestrian talent. Read above where I stated I think he is a pretty decent RB, definitely above-average amongst starters. But no, he's not an elite talent and when compared to Gore, I will respectfully disagree that he's as talented. You don't have to agree with that assessment. Draft position is irrelevant. Addai is definitely one of the top dynasty RB's to own, but when compared to Gore, I'll take Gore. Whether you agree or not with the talent comparison is up to you, but the point of my post above is that you should be using talent and not situation to make that decision, that's all.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Oct 31 2007, 11:20 AM)
The problem with this thinking is that you should lend heavier weight to talent rather than situation in a dynasty league. This is where dynasty leagues differ from redrafts and why a guy like L. Jordan has considerably more value in a redraft in 2007 than a dynasty in 2007. Things change very quickly in the NFL without any notice whatsoever. Who would have seen McGahee being in Baltimore in 2007 during last year? What about Jamal Lewis in Cleveland? How about Moss in NE? If you bailed on Moss because of his SITUATION in Oakland, you lost out considerably. What about Edge going to Arizona a couple of years ago? These are just a few examples. How about when you had Chester Taylor going into this year before they drafted AP? You had a top 10 fantasy back and now he's a backup in the blink of an eye because of 1 draft pick.
You never know what may change in the NFL. Right now, Addai is in the best situation possible and Gore is possibly in the worst situation possible. Even still, last year, Gore produced at a phenomenal level. Don't get me wrong, I think Addai is decent and an above-average back, but he's not Frank Gore in terms of talent-level, IMO. This is what the people who would rather have Gore think. At this point, I really think things could only get better for Gore and things could only get worse for Addai. All it would take is even a minor injury that keeps Addai out for 3-4 weeks and Keith stepping in and playing phenomenally for Addai to lose a lot of carries. It almost happened already.
Some of this also depends on your team's situation. If I were an Addai owner and in the hunt to win it all this year, would I trade Addai for Gore right now? Probably not. But, that's probably the only circumstance that I wouldn't. If you get the talent on your team, the situations will eventually work themselves out and your team will be better for it. This is why it was better to own MBIII than J. Jones from the beginning this year despite the fact that situation at the start of the year dictated otherwise.
The main thing I've learned so far from playing in a dynasty league is that Talent >>>>Situation. Ask Tatum Bell owners going into this year.
You never know what may change in the NFL. Right now, Addai is in the best situation possible and Gore is possibly in the worst situation possible. Even still, last year, Gore produced at a phenomenal level. Don't get me wrong, I think Addai is decent and an above-average back, but he's not Frank Gore in terms of talent-level, IMO. This is what the people who would rather have Gore think. At this point, I really think things could only get better for Gore and things could only get worse for Addai. All it would take is even a minor injury that keeps Addai out for 3-4 weeks and Keith stepping in and playing phenomenally for Addai to lose a lot of carries. It almost happened already.
Some of this also depends on your team's situation. If I were an Addai owner and in the hunt to win it all this year, would I trade Addai for Gore right now? Probably not. But, that's probably the only circumstance that I wouldn't. If you get the talent on your team, the situations will eventually work themselves out and your team will be better for it. This is why it was better to own MBIII than J. Jones from the beginning this year despite the fact that situation at the start of the year dictated otherwise.
The main thing I've learned so far from playing in a dynasty league is that Talent >>>>Situation. Ask Tatum Bell owners going into this year.
Great posting. The two guys I've been thinking about all along are Chester Taylor and LaMont Jordan....two guys where it was clear to me that the team could bring in another back to replace their production fairly handily. I never understood the high dynasty values associated with either of them at the beginning of last season.
I'm not saying Addai is in the exact same situation as Taylor & Jordan, but the same general principle applies in dynasty leagues: there is some concern when you don't separate yourself from your back-up. Or if you prefer: there is some concern when the team's system allows the team to plug in anybody at your position and not miss a beat. Sometimes all it takes is a sliver of opportunity for RBBC to rear its ugly head....a missed week here, a shoulder injury there...
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 12:19 PM)
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
Have you ever actually seen Frank Gore play? If so, how many times? Be honest...
QUOTE (the_sig @ Oct 31 2007, 12:28 PM)
Love the work here F&L, this has been a great thread over the past year.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
Thanks the_sig,
I see you've encountered the "sum of all fears." You've really talked yourself into some kind of thumb-sucking fetal position here. Come down off the ledge.
Why the desperation? And for whom are you going to trade him?
When he racks up 160 yards and 2 TDs this week, just tell yourself it was all a nightmare. The eerie sounds of the creatures of the night....when you should have been romancing your wife instead of "thinkering up" worst-case scenarios for your star wide receiver in your fantasy football league.
[Pay no attention to my own glass house behind the curtain...]
If Derek Andersen keeps up what he has been doing, how long until he jumps up a tier. Because right now he is putting up way better numbers than the guys in the tier above him, and they aren't anymore established then he is (Cutler, Leinart, Schaub, Rivers).
QUOTE (AtomicDogg97 @ Oct 31 2007, 03:25 PM)
If Derek Andersen keeps up what he has been doing, how long until he jumps up a tier. Because right now he is putting up way better numbers than the guys in the tier above him, and they aren't anymore established then he is (Cutler, Leinart, Schaub, Rivers).
When Quinn is traded away probably.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 02:29 PM)
QUOTE (the_sig @ Oct 31 2007, 12:28 PM)
Love the work here F&L, this has been a great thread over the past year.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
Talk me off the ledge here, I'm thinking of trading away Roy Williams. As much as I agree in principle with gianmarco's post above about valuing a player based on 'talent vs. situation', I think I may weigh those about 50/50 in valuing a player (presumably a higher weight on 'situation' than many other dynasty owners).
Some concerns I have for Roy's situation:
1. Kitna isn't going to last (years) given his age and the beating he is taking. I fear what a rookie Stanton might do to the WR values here.
2. This offense seems to have so many passing options. I fear Calvin is only going to get better (garnering more looks, etc.) and it seems that Martz is able to produce very solid #'s for WR3/4's (based on Furrey's '06 & McDonald's '07 to date)
3. KJ is apparently back and healthy, one would think a balanced offense would help open things up, but they appear content just running when needed.
4. The DET Def has surprised me this year. They appear to be giving the offense better field position (shorter drives) and keeping the games closer (less need to air it out from behind in the 2nd half?)
5. The high powered throwing offense of Martz won't be around for ever (just my opinion).
So, what are your thoughts here? You have him as WR#4 overall. I still like him as an elite 'talent', but have begun to be concerned about the 'situation' that is developing around him.
Thanks the_sig,
I see you've encountered the "sum of all fears." You've really talked yourself into some kind of thumb-sucking fetal position here. Come down off the ledge.
Why the desperation? And for whom are you going to trade him?
When he racks up 160 yards and 2 TDs this week, just tell yourself it was all a nightmare. The eerie sounds of the creatures of the night....when you should have been romancing your wife instead of "thinkering up" worst-case scenarios for your star wide receiver in your fantasy football league.
[Pay no attention to my own glass house behind the curtain...]
I realize this is not an A/C or WDIS thread, so I left out the desperation details on my side. On this particular dynasty squad of mine (that had its initial draft this spring), I drafted an absolute WIN NOW team (sitting @ 3-5...lol!). Problem is not much has gone right with it, and I'm trying to still stay competitve now, but also open up options for the future. This is a 14 team league with basically all owners FBG's, it is a pretty solid league. I left the draft with my starters as : Brees, SAlexander, Travis Henry, Holt, AJohnson, Roy Williams, & Flex of Kevin Curtis. Needless to say, none of those guys with the exception of Curtis has performed to my draft expectations. With Hnery very near suspension, I really have no sure RB2. Amongst my RB bench, I have Chrissy Brown & recently snagged up Chris Henry. I wanted to make a move for Lendale (as I would have the whole TEN RB core). The move I have been contemplating is Roy Williams for LenDale plus some 2008 picks(s).
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 03:16 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 12:19 PM)
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
Have you ever actually seen Frank Gore play? If so, how many times? Be honest...
I have Gore in a keeper league, and also in a redraft this year so its not like Im rootin against the guy. I have seen him play probably 10 times usually following other games at the same time. I understand what you are saying about talent trumping situation, but in this case where the Indy offense has been proven to have so much stability and given the fact that the Colts invested a 1st rd pick on him in 2006, and that he has produced at every oppurtunity, I think this is a case where situation is a much bigger deal than it may be otherwise if we were talking about a different offense. In most cases I would lean to talent over oppurtunity but in this case I believe the two RBs are close enough in talent with Addai being younger and in a much better situation to warrent a higher selection in dynasty drafts. In any case Addai is definitely a tier 1 dynasty RB in my eyes
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 02:20 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 03:16 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 12:19 PM)
youre talking about Addai as if he some pedestrian talent. He was drafted in the 1st rd wasnt he? He should be in this situation for quite a few years. I dont necessarily agree that Gore is a more obvious talent, its possible that last year Gore was a product of the way Turner used him
Have you ever actually seen Frank Gore play? If so, how many times? Be honest...
I have Gore in a keeper league, and also in a redraft this year so its not like Im rootin against the guy. I have seen him play probably 10 times usually following other games at the same time. I understand what you are saying about talent trumping situation, but in this case where the Indy offense has been proven to have so much stability and given the fact that the Colts invested a 1st rd pick on him in 2006, and that he has produced at every oppurtunity, I think this is a case where situation is a much bigger deal than it may be otherwise if we were talking about a different offense. In most cases I would lean to talent over oppurtunity but in this case I believe the two RBs are close enough in talent with Addai being younger and in a much better situation to warrent a higher selection in dynasty drafts. In any case Addai is definitely a tier 1 dynasty RB in my eyes
Uhhhhhhhh...no.
QUOTE (the_sig @ Oct 31 2007, 04:07 PM)
I wanted to make a move for Lendale (as I would have the whole TEN RB core). The move I have been contemplating is Roy Williams for LenDale plus some 2008 picks(s).
Let me put it to you this way: if I had LenDale White, I'd throw in quite a bit to get Roy Williams.
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 04:20 PM)
I have Gore in a keeper league, and also in a redraft this year so its not like Im rootin against the guy. I have seen him play probably 10 times usually following other games at the same time. I understand what you are saying about talent trumping situation, but in this case where the Indy offense has been proven to have so much stability and given the fact that the Colts invested a 1st rd pick on him in 2006, and that he has produced at every oppurtunity, I think this is a case where situation is a much bigger deal than it may be otherwise if we were talking about a different offense. In most cases I would lean to talent over oppurtunity but in this case I believe the two RBs are close enough in talent with Addai being younger and in a much better situation to warrent a higher selection in dynasty drafts. In any case Addai is definitely a tier 1 dynasty RB in my eyes
Theoretically, we're on the same page. There are cases where situation trumps talent.
We just disagree that Gore and Addai are "close enough in talent." You're stuck on the fact that Addai was a 1st round draft pick as if all 1st round draft picks are molded from bronze. Adrian Peterson was a 1st round draft pick. So was Cedric Benson. It's no guarantee....not to mention Joseph Addai was drafted closer to Greg Jones than either of those guys.
One of the major factors for me in considering two players is whose future gives me more cause for concern due to uncertainty. Considering the big picture, Addai's "splitting the carries/any back-up can fill in for the Colts" has me more concerned than Gore's disappointing first 7 games.
The problem is we get too caught up in week-to-week changes. Last week, Addai was splitting carries. This week, he's not. What happens next week? What happens if Frank Gore drops 150 and 2 TDs on the Falcons this week (if he plays
)? Guys would be lining up to get Frank Gore because the 49ers offense looks to have a healthy Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Darrell Jackson for a friskier November/December in 'Frisco.One week changes everything...
QUOTE (AtomicDogg97 @ Oct 31 2007, 03:25 PM)
If Derek Andersen keeps up what he has been doing, how long until he jumps up a tier. Because right now he is putting up way better numbers than the guys in the tier above him, and they aren't anymore established then he is (Cutler, Leinart, Schaub, Rivers).
You don't see a difference between the guys you mentioned and Derek Anderson?
Those guys were drafted or acquired to be "The Franchise." Derek Anderson got thrown into the lineup out of desperation when Charlie Frye's ineptitude got him shipped away after one game.
Don't get me wrong, Anderson deserves a ton of credit for putting up consistent points. But how solid is his future? You look like a Browns fan, so you tell me....how solid is Derek Anderson's future? Bedrock or sand?
The ever-looming Brady Quinn era doesn't leave any lingering doubts in your mind about Anderson's role with the Browns?
And before I get another "how many weeks does Anderson have to keep doing this before you move him up" comment, the answer is: I don't know yet. I've been moving him up each week, but I'm not going gaga over him yet. If he avoids hitting the wall in the next couple of weeks and the Browns begin to give some indication that he's more than just a band-aid, then he'll move up a ton.
I wrote quite a bit on this recently on page 17 or 18, but the bottom line is I still expect some regression the rest of the way. I'm not sold on him yet as a dynasty QB.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 06:07 PM)
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Oct 31 2007, 04:20 PM)
I have Gore in a keeper league, and also in a redraft this year so its not like Im rootin against the guy. I have seen him play probably 10 times usually following other games at the same time. I understand what you are saying about talent trumping situation, but in this case where the Indy offense has been proven to have so much stability and given the fact that the Colts invested a 1st rd pick on him in 2006, and that he has produced at every oppurtunity, I think this is a case where situation is a much bigger deal than it may be otherwise if we were talking about a different offense. In most cases I would lean to talent over oppurtunity but in this case I believe the two RBs are close enough in talent with Addai being younger and in a much better situation to warrent a higher selection in dynasty drafts. In any case Addai is definitely a tier 1 dynasty RB in my eyes
Theoretically, we're on the same page. There are cases where situation trumps talent.
We just disagree that Gore and Addai are "close enough in talent." You're stuck on the fact that Addai was a 1st round draft pick as if all 1st round draft picks are molded from bronze. Adrian Peterson was a 1st round draft pick. So was Cedric Benson. It's no guarantee....not to mention Joseph Addai was drafted closer to Greg Jones than either of those guys.
One of the major factors for me in considering two players is whose future gives me more cause for concern due to uncertainty. Considering the big picture, Addai's "splitting the carries/any back-up can fill in for the Colts" has me more concerned than Gore's disappointing first 7 games.
The problem is we get too caught up in week-to-week changes. Last week, Addai was splitting carries. This week, he's not. What happens next week? What happens if Frank Gore drops 150 and 2 TDs on the Falcons this week (if he plays
)? Guys would be lining up to get Frank Gore because the 49ers offense looks to have a healthy Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Darrell Jackson for a friskier November/December in 'Frisco.One week changes everything...
I understand that just because a player was drafted in the 1st rd that doesnt mean he is destined for stardom at the NFL level. The point i was trying to make is that there was a high level of investment in him by the Colts. As far as Addai splitting carries...I believe that he was getting a 50/50 split that one game because he wasnt completely recovered from his injury. He said himself that he was the one calling for Keith to come in and relieve him. Like you said though, its a "what have you done for me lately"mentality in FF, so its very possible that a poor game from Addai vs the Pats(which I almost expect) and a nice outing from Gore will change the perception of the FF world about the value of the two RBs
Great stuff. I've been following it since it started. I personally would bump Brandon Marshall up a bit.
QUOTE (AtomicDogg97 @ Oct 31 2007, 04:25 PM)
If Derek Andersen keeps up what he has been doing, how long until he jumps up a tier. Because right now he is putting up way better numbers than the guys in the tier above him, and they aren't anymore established then he is (Cutler, Leinart, Schaub, Rivers).
Cutler and Rivers are way more established than Anderson. Schaub is probably more established too. Leinart and Anderson may be about a wash.
You can't just ignore the fact that Anderson has a 2007 first round draft pick behind him.
Great thread
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 12:11 AM)
RE: Tight ends. I had been planning on breaking up that top tier, and we all know Gates is the best by far....but is there really any point in having a player in a tier by himself?
Absolutely. If he belongs by himself - it just shows you how dominant he really is. I'd argue Gonzo & Peyton have been so far ahead of others to merit their own tier at different points.
On the Addai/Keith vs Gore/MRobinson comaprison I think that it really comes down to how one values the package. For example, my take is:
Indy >>> SF
Gore talent > Addai talent
Addai injury risk < Gore injury risk
MRobinson talent ? KKeith talent
I tried to make the < & > relate to the relative values.
To me Indy trumps SF more than Gore trumps Addai, especially if I get the backup RB, as the situation remains the same often when you get the whole package. I think Robinson > Keith eventually, but I could be wrong.
QUOTE (Micon @ Oct 31 2007, 08:33 PM)
Great thread
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
In what world is that a good trade in a dynasty league?
You gave up 2 young up and coming QB's for a couple QB's over 35. Cutler and Russell will be playing for 10+ more years then either Kitna or Favre and were both 1st round draft picks. They will get their chance to shine time and time again over the next decade.
I like this thread but some of the QB rankings are re-draft based. I understand QB's can play a long time but Kitna has been a journeyman his entire career and doesn't have a long-term stable hold on the job (plus he's 35) and while Favre is solid he won't be playing for very long.
All that plus Cutler/Russell could easily be outperforming those guys as soon as next year (not only that but Kitna could conceivably lose his job with a few bad weeks next year and Favre could retire). Best case scenerio they play for a couple more years whereas Russell and Cutler will be playing for long long after those 2 are gone.
Horrific trade, just horrific. While i like to keep an open mind anyone who thinks different on this is off their rocker.
QUOTE (stevegamer @ Oct 31 2007, 09:53 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 12:11 AM)
RE: Tight ends. I had been planning on breaking up that top tier, and we all know Gates is the best by far....but is there really any point in having a player in a tier by himself?
Absolutely. If he belongs by himself - it just shows you how dominant he really is. I'd argue Gonzo & Peyton have been so far ahead of others to merit their own tier at different points.
Again, we all know Gates is the best by far. The fact that no other TE is within 10 value points of him already demonstrates that. I'm just not wasting my time making Antonio Gates the "gateway one-man tier." We don't need a tier with one person in it -- it's minutia. What's next? "Well, Romo should really stand on his own in tier two of QBs because he's not quite at Palmer's value, yet he's clearly a notch above the rest of the guys in that tier." That can of worms is going to be left unopened.
Solution for the trifling tier talk (since I really have nothing else to say about it) -- If you want Gates in a tier by himself when we all know he's far-and-away the best TE, just imagine an extra tier up there. Nobody can stop you from doing so...
I do not intend to claim that Addai has more talent than Gore, but I don't think the difference is as clear cut as everyone thinks. Personally, I told myself when I saw Addai as a freshman I told myself I would own him when he entered the NFL. He is not as pedestrian as many would have you think, and at least partially had his image as a talented guy hurt by the way Saban liked to rotate his backs. Likewise, it has been mentioned that he was a 1st round pick. But that's not the big story here. More importantly, he was a 1st round pick by Bill Polian. Someone want to post his resume of 1st round picks for the last 10 years? The guy just does not miss in round 1. Many like to say that Indy's RB system is just plug and play, but it means something to me that perhaps the NFL's best talent evaluator still decided he wanted Addai in round 1 despite having his choice of several top LB prospects with a dire need at that position.
Gore, as has been mentioned, was an absolute elite talent coming out of high school. But that was what, 6 knee ligaments ago? He is still awesomely talented, but you don't go through that many tragic knee injuries without suffering some long-term effects.
Gore, as has been mentioned, was an absolute elite talent coming out of high school. But that was what, 6 knee ligaments ago? He is still awesomely talented, but you don't go through that many tragic knee injuries without suffering some long-term effects.
QUOTE (FBGPoker @ Oct 31 2007, 10:05 PM)
QUOTE (Micon @ Oct 31 2007, 08:33 PM)
Great thread
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
In what world is that a good trade in a dynasty league?
You gave up 2 young up and coming QB's for a couple QB's over 35. Cutler and Russell will be playing for 10+ more years then either Kitna or Favre and were both 1st round draft picks. They will get their chance to shine time and time again over the next decade.
I like this thread but some of the QB rankings are re-draft based. I understand QB's can play a long time but Kitna has been a journeyman his entire career and doesn't have a long-term stable hold on the job (plus he's 35) and while Favre is solid he won't be playing for very long.
All that plus Cutler/Russell could easily be outperforming those guys as soon as next year (not only that but Kitna could conceivably lose his job with a few bad weeks next year and Favre could retire). Best case scenerio they play for a couple more years whereas Russell and Cutler will be playing for long long after those 2 are gone.
Horrific trade, just horrific. While i like to keep an open mind anyone who thinks different on this is off their rocker.
I personally wouldn't trade both Cutler AND Russell for Favre AND Kitna. I would've kept one promising young guy and gone with one reliable vet, so I had a nice mix. But I don't think it makes any more sense to go with all unproven youth at QB than it does to go with all 35-and-over at QB.
But the question I have for you, FBGPoker, is who are running out there as a starter every week? Cutler? Good luck. I'd rather compete than build...
QUOTE (FreeBaGeL @ Oct 31 2007, 10:12 PM)
I do not intend to claim that Addai has more talent than Gore, but I don't think the difference is as clear cut as everyone thinks. Personally, I told myself when I saw Addai as a freshman I told myself I would own him when he entered the NFL. He is not as pedestrian as many would have you think, and at least partially had his image as a talented guy hurt by the way Saban liked to rotate his backs. Likewise, it has been mentioned that he was a 1st round pick. But that's not the big story here. More importantly, he was a 1st round pick by Bill Polian. Someone want to post his resume of 1st round picks for the last 10 years? The guy just does not miss in round 1. Many like to say that Indy's RB system is just plug and play, but it means something to me that perhaps the NFL's best talent evaluator still decided he wanted Addai in round 1 despite having his choice of several top LB prospects with a dire need at that position.
Gore, as has been mentioned, was an absolute elite talent coming out of high school. But that was what, 6 knee ligaments ago? He is still awesomely talented, but you don't go through that many tragic knee injuries without suffering some long-term effects.
Gore, as has been mentioned, was an absolute elite talent coming out of high school. But that was what, 6 knee ligaments ago? He is still awesomely talented, but you don't go through that many tragic knee injuries without suffering some long-term effects.
That's fine. We're not all going to agree on player values. gianmarco and I have watched Gore and Addai play and come to a significantly different conclusion about their respective talents than you and Little Big Head have. I don't see a problem with that.
It's the engine that drives the trading machine in fantasy football.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 09:13 PM)
QUOTE (FBGPoker @ Oct 31 2007, 10:05 PM)
QUOTE (Micon @ Oct 31 2007, 08:33 PM)
Great thread
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
I was a bit worried that I made a mistake trading J. Cutler and J. Russell for Farve and Kitna in my big money 16 team dynasty league. I thought I may have been giving up too much young talent at QB but this thread confirms I made the right move. FBG for life
In what world is that a good trade in a dynasty league?
You gave up 2 young up and coming QB's for a couple QB's over 35. Cutler and Russell will be playing for 10+ more years then either Kitna or Favre and were both 1st round draft picks. They will get their chance to shine time and time again over the next decade.
I like this thread but some of the QB rankings are re-draft based. I understand QB's can play a long time but Kitna has been a journeyman his entire career and doesn't have a long-term stable hold on the job (plus he's 35) and while Favre is solid he won't be playing for very long.
All that plus Cutler/Russell could easily be outperforming those guys as soon as next year (not only that but Kitna could conceivably lose his job with a few bad weeks next year and Favre could retire). Best case scenerio they play for a couple more years whereas Russell and Cutler will be playing for long long after those 2 are gone.
Horrific trade, just horrific. While i like to keep an open mind anyone who thinks different on this is off their rocker.
I personally wouldn't trade both Cutler AND Russell for Favre AND Kitna. I would've kept one promising young guy and gone with one reliable vet, so I had a nice mix. But I don't think it makes any more sense to go with all unproven youth at QB than it does to go with all 35-and-over at QB.
But the question I have for you, FBGPoker, is who are running out there as a starter every week? Cutler? Good luck. I'd rather compete than build...
Cutler was better than both Kitna/Favre on a PPG basis just last season, also he is better than Kitna this season. Anyway, you can't base everything in dynasties on the current season, that is what re-drafts are for.
I agree, in a redraft i'd rather have Favre or Kitna, but were talking dynasty. I would rather trot out Cutler and have him for 10+ years then a 38 yr old Favre or a 35 yr old journey man Kitna.
So your ranking a 35 year old Kitna over Cutler who has been better than Kitna not only last season but is outperforming him this season as well??
I'm sorry, i don't understand that logic at all.
F and L
How great can Micheal Bush be?
At Louisville I thought he was awesome, Maybe even Heisman.
Is he a every-down back in the NFL.
He is now practicing with the team. How soon until he is in a game?
How great can Micheal Bush be?
At Louisville I thought he was awesome, Maybe even Heisman.
Is he a every-down back in the NFL.
He is now practicing with the team. How soon until he is in a game?
QUOTE (FBGPoker @ Oct 31 2007, 10:19 PM)
Cutler was better than both Kitna/Favre on a PPG basis just last season, also he is better than Kitna this season. Anyway, you can't base everything in dynasties on the current season, that is what re-drafts are for.
I agree, in a redraft i'd rather have Favre or Kitna, but were talking dynasty. I would rather trot out Cutler and have him for 10+ years then a 38 yr old Favre or a 35 yr old journey man Kitna.
So your ranking a 35 year old Kitna over Cutler who has been better than Kitna not only last season but is outperforming him this season as well??
I'm sorry, i don't understand that logic at all.
I agree, in a redraft i'd rather have Favre or Kitna, but were talking dynasty. I would rather trot out Cutler and have him for 10+ years then a 38 yr old Favre or a 35 yr old journey man Kitna.
So your ranking a 35 year old Kitna over Cutler who has been better than Kitna not only last season but is outperforming him this season as well??
I'm sorry, i don't understand that logic at all.
I think I understand the difference between dynasty and redraft, but thanks for the primer just the same. There are 19+ pages here covering that difference.
Ranking Kitna over Cutler? My belief is that Kitna is much more reliable as a starting fantasy QB than Cutler is. We'll see how it plays out the rest of this year and next year. If Cutler puts together some consistent production to match his promise and talent, he'll skyrocket past Kitna. I don't know if that's happened yet. And people have been downgrading Favre's value for over 3 years now because "he's not going to be around forever." They're not going to stop now even if he does have a shot to be a top 8 QB for the next two years.
I'm not asking you to understand the logic. It's OK if you think differently.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Oct 31 2007, 09:30 PM)
QUOTE (FBGPoker @ Oct 31 2007, 10:19 PM)
Cutler was better than both Kitna/Favre on a PPG basis just last season, also he is better than Kitna this season. Anyway, you can't base everything in dynasties on the current season, that is what re-drafts are for.
I agree, in a redraft i'd rather have Favre or Kitna, but were talking dynasty. I would rather trot out Cutler and have him for 10+ years then a 38 yr old Favre or a 35 yr old journey man Kitna.
So your ranking a 35 year old Kitna over Cutler who has been better than Kitna not only last season but is outperforming him this season as well??
I'm sorry, i don't understand that logic at all.
I agree, in a redraft i'd rather have Favre or Kitna, but were talking dynasty. I would rather trot out Cutler and have him for 10+ years then a 38 yr old Favre or a 35 yr old journey man Kitna.
So your ranking a 35 year old Kitna over Cutler who has been better than Kitna not only last season but is outperforming him this season as well??
I'm sorry, i don't understand that logic at all.
I think I understand the difference between dynasty and redraft, but thanks for the primer just the same. There are 19+ pages here covering that difference.
Ranking Kitna over Cutler? My belief is that Kitna is much more reliable as a starting fantasy QB than Cutler is. We'll see how it plays out the rest of this year and next year. If Cutler puts together some consistent production to match his promise and talent, he'll skyrocket past Kitna. I don't know if that's happened yet. And people have been downgrading Favre's value for over 3 years now because "he's not going to be around forever." They're not going to stop now even if he does have a shot to be a top 8 QB for the next two years.
I'm not asking you to understand the logic. It's OK if you think differently.
I love this thread, i think your dynasty knowledge is some of the best on the net.
I just don't see the logic, especially when ranking Cutler behind both Favre and Kitna when he's already been performing at near their level FF wise and he's got 10+ years playing span in his favor. That is huge and QB's can play a long time, so giving top young talent QB's value 5+ years down the line isn't out of line like it is with RB's.
And it isn't just the public making thing up about Favre retiring, it's from his own lips. That does add uncertainty to him, especially since he's now 3 years older then when the talk started a few years ago. Favre is having one of his best seasons of the past few years, i think your giving too much value to that when assessing his value dynasty wise.
Kitna is 35 and has never been an elite QB or held a job long term. He's in a great situation, but he's not and will never be elite. If Stanton shows promise next offseason and Kitna has a few bad games next year it wouldn't be shocking at all to see Kitna replaced...just like he's been every step of his career.
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