QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 21 2008, 05:45 PM) 
QUOTE (streamkeeper @ Jan 21 2008, 04:23 PM)
F&L
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
I'm sure F&L will respond to this, but I'd just give a short answer for you. Aside from going back and looking as I believe there are quite a few posts about him, the main reason for his ranking is "upside".
I was a doubter heading into this season and I have since come around. The kid is just simply ultra talented and has performed at an almost elite level despite limited touches. There simply is no reason to believe he couldn't handle the full load. If he gets it, which may happen in the near future, he has the talent and potential to crack the top 3 in FF with ease. That's essentially why.
Look at the guys ranked below him and find a guy that has a realistic shot at finishing in the top 3. Aside from LJ, Portis, and maybe Lynch, I don't see it. There are reasons why to rank LJ as low as he is, and Portis and Lynch are right below him. Bottomline, you want to get as many elite talents on your team as you can and MJD has already shown he can definitely be that with an increased workload.
All the guys below him are good and solid and are better NOW, but just don't have that potential to win your season like MJD can. I'm pretty sure that's what he's gonna tell ya.
I posed a similar question on the new blog during the Playoff Week 2 rankings (getting confusing as to where questions go
). This was the response...QUOTE (Fear & Loathing)
QUOTE (me)
I've got to ask in about MJD. I've been through the recent discussion in the Shark Pool, and can agree with the idea that the guy is a physical wildman on the field ( I think my favorite description is that he's "a bowling ball on methamphetamines", don't remember which shark said it though ). But does a guy who only averages 11 carries a game REALLY belong in Tier 1? The 89 he's got right now is a HUGE bump from the 77 last ranking, and I'm just not sure I can buy that he belongs on the same tier as the feature back guys at the top level?
I think if you say that MJD is such a dynamic talent that you wouldn't trade him for Addai right now, then don't you have to rank him pretty close to Addai? If you believe his future is special, then you're not giving him up and missing out on difference-making fantasy production once he does get a bump in touches. It's tough to know when it's going to happen, but it IS likely to happen.
Fred Taylor is looking outstanding right now and taking better care of his body, but he's going to be almost 33 years old to begin next season, and age catches up to everybody. Like I said, you can't pinpoint exactly when MJD will see that big bump in touches, but it could happen at any time.
Another thing to consider is that you mentioned only his carries, but he's a major factor in the passing game and in the return game. He's an unique fantasy player in that he's a TD vulture inside the 10-yardline PLUS a homerun threat every time he touches the ball AND one of the absolute best receiving backs in the NFL.
I'm having a bit of trouble with the footballreference site, but I know that he finished 8th among RBs in limited touches his rookie season, and I believe he finished somewhere around 12th this season. If you believe his touches are likely to increase, then he's an elite RB.
I'm not sure I agree wholeheartedly ( not sure I'd trade Addai for MJD, even though I don't like Addai), but I can't argue too much about the ranking (its the whole "Who would you put above him?" reasoning). I'm not sure I agree totally with gianmarco either, as even with a full time job I don't have MJD breaking into the top 3, but for me its a probable top 5 and the difference isn't worth squabbling over. Really IMHO the only real change I'd make here is to limit the "Tier 1" moniker to the consensus top 4 guys and move everybody down one, putting the Addai, Gore, MJD crew (those with "question marks") down to "Tier 2"... but that's a semantic problem that I can resolve on my own.
QUOTE (PranksterJD @ Jan 21 2008, 06:23 PM)
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 21 2008, 05:45 PM)
QUOTE (streamkeeper @ Jan 21 2008, 04:23 PM)
F&L
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
I'm sure F&L will respond to this, but I'd just give a short answer for you. Aside from going back and looking as I believe there are quite a few posts about him, the main reason for his ranking is "upside".
I was a doubter heading into this season and I have since come around. The kid is just simply ultra talented and has performed at an almost elite level despite limited touches. There simply is no reason to believe he couldn't handle the full load. If he gets it, which may happen in the near future, he has the talent and potential to crack the top 3 in FF with ease. That's essentially why.
Look at the guys ranked below him and find a guy that has a realistic shot at finishing in the top 3. Aside from LJ, Portis, and maybe Lynch, I don't see it. There are reasons why to rank LJ as low as he is, and Portis and Lynch are right below him. Bottomline, you want to get as many elite talents on your team as you can and MJD has already shown he can definitely be that with an increased workload.
All the guys below him are good and solid and are better NOW, but just don't have that potential to win your season like MJD can. I'm pretty sure that's what he's gonna tell ya.
I posed a similar question on the new blog during the Playoff Week 2 rankings (getting confusing as to where questions go
). This was the response...QUOTE (Fear & Loathing)
QUOTE (me)
I've got to ask in about MJD. I've been through the recent discussion in the Shark Pool, and can agree with the idea that the guy is a physical wildman on the field ( I think my favorite description is that he's "a bowling ball on methamphetamines", don't remember which shark said it though ). But does a guy who only averages 11 carries a game REALLY belong in Tier 1? The 89 he's got right now is a HUGE bump from the 77 last ranking, and I'm just not sure I can buy that he belongs on the same tier as the feature back guys at the top level?
I think if you say that MJD is such a dynamic talent that you wouldn't trade him for Addai right now, then don't you have to rank him pretty close to Addai? If you believe his future is special, then you're not giving him up and missing out on difference-making fantasy production once he does get a bump in touches. It's tough to know when it's going to happen, but it IS likely to happen.
Fred Taylor is looking outstanding right now and taking better care of his body, but he's going to be almost 33 years old to begin next season, and age catches up to everybody. Like I said, you can't pinpoint exactly when MJD will see that big bump in touches, but it could happen at any time.
Another thing to consider is that you mentioned only his carries, but he's a major factor in the passing game and in the return game. He's an unique fantasy player in that he's a TD vulture inside the 10-yardline PLUS a homerun threat every time he touches the ball AND one of the absolute best receiving backs in the NFL.
I'm having a bit of trouble with the footballreference site, but I know that he finished 8th among RBs in limited touches his rookie season, and I believe he finished somewhere around 12th this season. If you believe his touches are likely to increase, then he's an elite RB.
I'm not sure I agree wholeheartedly ( not sure I'd trade Addai for MJD, even though I don't like Addai), but I can't argue too much about the ranking (its the whole "Who would you put above him?" reasoning). I'm not sure I agree totally with gianmarco either, as even with a full time job I don't have MJD breaking into the top 3, but for me its a probable top 5 and the difference isn't worth squabbling over. Really IMHO the only real change I'd make here is to limit the "Tier 1" moniker to the consensus top 4 guys and move everybody down one, putting the Addai, Gore, MJD crew (those with "question marks") down to "Tier 2"... but that's a semantic problem that I can resolve on my own.
SSOG, Valhallan, and I discussed MJD a couple of weeks ago on page 37 (posts #1832 - #1839), so you can check that out as well.
I agree that I have him higher than probably anybody else producing dynasty rankings, but I'm a firm believer in taking chances and believing in what your eyes tell you as opposed to building a consensus with other rankers and sticking with conventional wisdom. That said, I realize it's a risky ranking. I don't think the rankings of any "expert" or pseudo-expert do anybody any good if they play it safe. You can compile rankings from all over the internet to gauge a normative value for a player like MJD. Anybody can do that. But I think the idea is to be ahead of the curve on rankings as opposed to being reactionary. It's not easy, and I know I fail to stay out front on plenty of guys. But that's always the goal...
I agree that MJD could be too high especially if Fred Taylor's legs stay fresh for another year, but I prefer to get in on the ground floor with MJD before he blows up like Westbrook and becomes unattainable. Like gianmarco said, he's an elite talent. Those are the guys I want. If I say I wouldn't trade him for Addai, how much lower than Addai can I rank him?
So bottom line, I realize it's a risky ranking. I don't expect everybody to agree, especially if your style is less of a riverboat gambler.
But I do take some solace in the fact that some of the smarter posters here are on board the MJD train.
QUOTE (gianmarco @ Jan 21 2008, 05:45 PM)
I'm sure F&L will respond to this, but I'd just give a short answer for you. Aside from going back and looking as I believe there are quite a few posts about him, the main reason for his ranking is "upside".
I was a doubter heading into this season and I have since come around. The kid is just simply ultra talented and has performed at an almost elite level despite limited touches. There simply is no reason to believe he couldn't handle the full load. If he gets it, which may happen in the near future, he has the talent and potential to crack the top 3 in FF with ease. That's essentially why.
Look at the guys ranked below him and find a guy that has a realistic shot at finishing in the top 3. Aside from LJ, Portis, and maybe Lynch, I don't see it. There are reasons why to rank LJ as low as he is, and Portis and Lynch are right below him. Bottomline, you want to get as many elite talents on your team as you can and MJD has already shown he can definitely be that with an increased workload.
All the guys below him are good and solid and are better NOW, but just don't have that potential to win your season like MJD can. I'm pretty sure that's what he's gonna tell ya.
I was a doubter heading into this season and I have since come around. The kid is just simply ultra talented and has performed at an almost elite level despite limited touches. There simply is no reason to believe he couldn't handle the full load. If he gets it, which may happen in the near future, he has the talent and potential to crack the top 3 in FF with ease. That's essentially why.
Look at the guys ranked below him and find a guy that has a realistic shot at finishing in the top 3. Aside from LJ, Portis, and maybe Lynch, I don't see it. There are reasons why to rank LJ as low as he is, and Portis and Lynch are right below him. Bottomline, you want to get as many elite talents on your team as you can and MJD has already shown he can definitely be that with an increased workload.
All the guys below him are good and solid and are better NOW, but just don't have that potential to win your season like MJD can. I'm pretty sure that's what he's gonna tell ya.
I'm not F&L, but I'm not high on him because of his "upside". I expect his per-play metrics to fall through the floor if he ever gets the full-time job. I think he'll be a top-5 RB, but I don't expect any LaDanian Tomlinson 2006 type seasons out of him (because that's what his part-time numbers would project to). What does it for me is just his raw talent. There isn't anything that any coach could ask of an RB that Jones-Drew isn't one of the best in the NFL at doing. He runs, he blocks, he catches, he returns. He excels on 1st down, 3rd down, short yardage, long yardage, between the 20s and in the red zone. He's smart, he has an incredible work ethic, he has no character concerns that I know of. He's a blue-chipper in terms of recruiting rankings and draft position (yes, 2nd rounders are still elite talents). He produced in high school, he produced in college, he produced in the NFL. He quite literally has no negatives other than the fact that he's currently sharing carries with one of the best rushers of all time. Oh, and he's a couple inches shorter than most other RBs (although of a comparable height to guys like Peyton and Sanders). I don't view that as a negative- watching him play, his height gives him an advantage because it's that much harder for tacklers to get under his pads, which is a big reason why he's so good in short yardage. Plus, while he's short, he's most definitely NOT small- he's a bowling ball on meth (that was me, by the way, Prankster
).I don't know what his upside is going to be, whether he becomes Brian Westbrook or LaDanian Tomlinson... all I know is that he the type of talent that only comes along a couple of times a decade, and barring injury, he is going to be a star in this league for a long, long time. On the field, he is every bit as talented as Fred Taylor, and wouldn't a 25-year old Taylor be worth a top-10 dynasty pick in startup drafts? Especially if he wasn't an injury risk?
QUOTE (SSOG @ Jan 21 2008, 08:07 PM)
I'm not F&L, but I'm not high on him because of his "upside". I expect his per-play metrics to fall through the floor if he ever gets the full-time job. I think he'll be a top-5 RB, but I don't expect any LaDanian Tomlinson 2006 type seasons out of him (because that's what his part-time numbers would project to). What does it for me is just his raw talent. There isn't anything that any coach could ask of an RB that Jones-Drew isn't one of the best in the NFL at doing. He runs, he blocks, he catches, he returns. He excels on 1st down, 3rd down, short yardage, long yardage, between the 20s and in the red zone. He's smart, he has an incredible work ethic, he has no character concerns that I know of. He's a blue-chipper in terms of recruiting rankings and draft position (yes, 2nd rounders are still elite talents). He produced in high school, he produced in college, he produced in the NFL. He quite literally has no negatives other than the fact that he's currently sharing carries with one of the best rushers of all time. Oh, and he's a couple inches shorter than most other RBs (although of a comparable height to guys like Peyton and Sanders). I don't view that as a negative- watching him play, his height gives him an advantage because it's that much harder for tacklers to get under his pads, which is a big reason why he's so good in short yardage. Plus, while he's short, he's most definitely NOT small- he's a bowling ball on meth (that was me, by the way, Prankster ).
I don't know what his upside is going to be, whether he becomes Brian Westbrook or LaDanian Tomlinson... all I know is that he the type of talent that only comes along a couple of times a decade, and barring injury, he is going to be a star in this league for a long, long time. On the field, he is every bit as talented as Fred Taylor, and wouldn't a 25-year old Taylor be worth a top-10 dynasty pick in startup drafts? Especially if he wasn't an injury risk?
).I don't know what his upside is going to be, whether he becomes Brian Westbrook or LaDanian Tomlinson... all I know is that he the type of talent that only comes along a couple of times a decade, and barring injury, he is going to be a star in this league for a long, long time. On the field, he is every bit as talented as Fred Taylor, and wouldn't a 25-year old Taylor be worth a top-10 dynasty pick in startup drafts? Especially if he wasn't an injury risk?
QUOTE (streamkeeper @ Jan 21 2008, 05:23 PM)
F&L
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
Longtime fan of the post first time contributer.
I fear I am not as technical as some of your other posters, but I am curious as to why you have MJD as tier 1 (RB#7). While you must know I am also optimistic about him but, your rankings are considerably higher than the norm I am seeing.
We have all heard the negatives; too small & not a full time back......
What are you seeing there that others are missing?
He reminds my a lot of Westbrook and that's a good thing.
BTW Sons of the Tundra is comming along nicely.
Thanks, streamkeeper.
Good to hear from you, and I appreciate the compliment on the blog.
I finished the "2008 Off-Season QB Landscape" on the blog. It may be nothing earth-shattering for this crowd, but in such a slow news week for fantasy football, I figured anything mildly interesting was worth a mention.
It's sad, I think I visited this site even more when this thread was updated so frequently. IMO, FBG really missed the boat not bringing Chris aboard -- great writer, great insight and very dedicated.
That's all. Carry on.
That's all. Carry on.
He's certainly getting the deserved props over at RW.
Thanks guys. I appreciate the kind words.
I miss the discussion here as well. As I've said in the past, if anybody wants to bring something up for discussion or ask a question, I'll respond here . . . and even if I can't get around to it right away, chances are somebody else will chime in. I didn't want to see this thread die, but with 20 credit hours in school this semester plus the Rotoworld news coverage, maintaining the blog, etc., it's just not easy for me to come here and initiate the conversation on any sort of regular basis. I know the blog atmosphere doesn't lend itself to debate, conversation, etc. nearly as easily as a message board, so if people would rather hash out the contents over here, I'm fine with that.
I just finished up my Top 15 Draft Weekend Dynasty Tumblers over at the blog. I don't know if Rotoworld will end up using that or not. It was a down year for draft weekend risers, but I'll try to tackle that one as time permits.
I miss the discussion here as well. As I've said in the past, if anybody wants to bring something up for discussion or ask a question, I'll respond here . . . and even if I can't get around to it right away, chances are somebody else will chime in. I didn't want to see this thread die, but with 20 credit hours in school this semester plus the Rotoworld news coverage, maintaining the blog, etc., it's just not easy for me to come here and initiate the conversation on any sort of regular basis. I know the blog atmosphere doesn't lend itself to debate, conversation, etc. nearly as easily as a message board, so if people would rather hash out the contents over here, I'm fine with that.
I just finished up my Top 15 Draft Weekend Dynasty Tumblers over at the blog. I don't know if Rotoworld will end up using that or not. It was a down year for draft weekend risers, but I'll try to tackle that one as time permits.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Apr 28 2008, 01:53 PM)
I just finished up my Top 15 Draft Weekend Dynasty Tumblers over at the blog. I don't know if Rotoworld will end up using that or not. It was a down year for draft weekend risers, but I'll try to tackle that one as time permits.
Like I said, definitely a sparse crowd for Draft Weekend Risers this year, but I just finished up the Top 10 list over at the blog.
Good read. I think Cutler can be on that list as more than a 'throw in', seeing as they brought in Clady to sure up the OL as well.
QUOTE (chook @ Apr 30 2008, 09:29 PM)
Good read. I think Cutler can be on that list as more than a 'throw in', seeing as they brought in Clady to sure up the OL as well.
I plum forgot about Clady. That's a good point. It seems that the Broncos O-Line was worse last season than it's been in a long, long time. That was a nice first step in rebuilding it for Cutler, et al.You're right that Cutler could be higher on this list . . . it's such a pitiful list, but nobody of major significance got noticeably more valuable on draft day weekend like they did last season. By the very nature of the draft, non-rookie RBs are only going to lose value unless you're shocked that competition wasn't brought in. Quarterbacks need upgrades in weaponry and linemen. There wasn't much dominant WR talent in the draft (if any), and most of the top TEs went to teams that already had star caliber TEs in place. Not much movement on the positive side this year.
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Hey bud, have real life give me a call. I'll set him straight. You have priorities, and it's fantasy football.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 01:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Amazing article. I was mesmerised reading it the whole time!
Hope lifes treating you well bro. Here's to a great summer!
Greg Jennings v. Santonio Holmes. Their fantasy football prospect seem real similar. I can't distinguish between the two. Anyone care to set me straight?
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 23 2008, 04:59 PM)
Greg Jennings v. Santonio Holmes. Their fantasy football prospect seem real similar. I can't distinguish between the two. Anyone care to set me straight?
Holmes>Jennings
They are somewhat similar WR's, but one is catching passes from a 1st year starter and the other is catching passes from a pro bowl QB.
QUOTE (travdogg @ May 23 2008, 07:15 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 23 2008, 04:59 PM)
Greg Jennings v. Santonio Holmes. Their fantasy football prospect seem real similar. I can't distinguish between the two. Anyone care to set me straight?
Holmes>Jennings
They are somewhat similar WR's, but one is catching passes from a 1st year starter and the other is catching passes from a pro bowl QB.
I agree. Roethlisberger is a huge advantage. Plus Jennings' 2007 TD total was aberrant.
On the other hand, I could see Jennings taking over Driver's go-to role before Holmes usurps Hines Ward's role.
QUOTE (Timberlend @ May 23 2008, 05:54 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 01:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Amazing article. I was mesmerised reading it the whole time!
Hope lifes treating you well bro. Here's to a great summer!
Thanks, Timberlend. Appreciate it.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 08:32 PM)
QUOTE (travdogg @ May 23 2008, 07:15 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 23 2008, 04:59 PM)
Greg Jennings v. Santonio Holmes. Their fantasy football prospect seem real similar. I can't distinguish between the two. Anyone care to set me straight?
Holmes>Jennings
They are somewhat similar WR's, but one is catching passes from a 1st year starter and the other is catching passes from a pro bowl QB.
I agree. Roethlisberger is a huge advantage. Plus Jennings' 2007 TD total was aberrant.
On the other hand, I could see Jennings taking over Driver's go-to role before Holmes usurps Hines Ward's role.
I honestly see Jordy Nelson taking on the high catch, possession role in a couple of years. A lot has to be shown first, but I think that's why he was drafted with the 36th overall pick.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ May 23 2008, 04:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Hey bud, have real life give me a call. I'll set him straight. You have priorities, and it's fantasy football.
Good to hear from you, CP. Real life had to wait a night anyway because cash is too tight to go to the bar.
Gotta pick my battles, so I'll take Saturday/Sunday instead. AFC Running Back Landscape is up as of 11:00 Friday night. I got rolling on this one and ended up a little more long-winded and opinionated than the NFC.
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ May 23 2008, 11:38 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 08:32 PM)
QUOTE (travdogg @ May 23 2008, 07:15 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 23 2008, 04:59 PM)
Greg Jennings v. Santonio Holmes. Their fantasy football prospect seem real similar. I can't distinguish between the two. Anyone care to set me straight?
Holmes>Jennings
They are somewhat similar WR's, but one is catching passes from a 1st year starter and the other is catching passes from a pro bowl QB.
I agree. Roethlisberger is a huge advantage. Plus Jennings' 2007 TD total was aberrant.
On the other hand, I could see Jennings taking over Driver's go-to role before Holmes usurps Hines Ward's role.
I honestly see Jordy Nelson taking on the high catch, possession role in a couple of years. A lot has to be shown first, but I think that's why he was drafted with the 36th overall pick.
That's a good point. Tough to know much until we see Nelson play, but I like him an awful lot.
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
Good stuff as usual. I agree with your take on McGahee/Rice. Anyone expecting 2007 Ronnie Brown numbers from Willis is in for disappointment. Ray will get a significant number of touches IMO.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 09:27 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
I think there is some unwarranted "Kevin Smith, third round pick" stigma. If he was taken one pick earlier, he's "Kevin Smith, second rounder" the same as "Matt Forte, second rounder".
And just because the Bears thought Forte was worth the 44th pick and was better than Smith doesn't mean every other team - or even a majority of teams - think the same. It just takes one team to cause a player to go too early. And we're talking about a team that took Cedric Benson at #4.
I'm no scout, but from what I've seen on video, I like Kevin Smith. I like Forte too, but I like Kevin Smith's upside. I wouldn't complain if someone else picked Forte, but I think the talent and situation suggests that Smith has the ability to very, very good. "Elite" may have been overstating it. But I think his ceiling is higher than Forte's.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a feeling that situation will end up skewing the results. Unfortunately, I can't accurately guess which situation will be less of a disaster. It's really too bad that both didn't end up in good situations so that we could see their talent.
QUOTE (EBF @ May 23 2008, 11:51 PM)
Good stuff as usual. I agree with your take on McGahee/Rice. Anyone expecting 2007 Ronnie Brown numbers from Willis is in for disappointment. Ray will get a significant number of touches IMO.
Sorry, just can't let you go now that my favorite thread is up and going again.
Vernon Davis: The hype has cooled off, but the talent is still there. The disastrous SF offense last year would normally make me think he's a great buy low this year. But Martz scares me. Until I see him utilize a TE, I have to wait and see.
Davis ahead of Tony G is interesting. My sense is, for 2008 only, Tony G is a safer option. So I'm guessing your ranking is mostly based on Tony G declining rapidly rather than Davis necessarily outperforming Tony G in 2008.
Vernon Davis: The hype has cooled off, but the talent is still there. The disastrous SF offense last year would normally make me think he's a great buy low this year. But Martz scares me. Until I see him utilize a TE, I have to wait and see.
Davis ahead of Tony G is interesting. My sense is, for 2008 only, Tony G is a safer option. So I'm guessing your ranking is mostly based on Tony G declining rapidly rather than Davis necessarily outperforming Tony G in 2008.
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:03 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 09:27 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
I think there is some unwarranted "Kevin Smith, third round pick" stigma. If he was taken one pick earlier, he's "Kevin Smith, second rounder" the same as "Matt Forte, second rounder".
And just because the Bears thought Forte was worth the 44th pick and was better than Smith doesn't mean every other team - or even a majority of teams - think the same. It just takes one team to cause a player to go too early. And we're talking about a team that took Cedric Benson at #4.
I'm no scout, but from what I've seen on tape, I like Kevin Smith. I like Forte too, but I like Kevin Smith's upside. I wouldn't complain if someone else picked Forte, but I think the talent and situation suggests that Smith has the ability to very, very good. "Elite" may have been overstating it. But I think his ceiling is higher than Forte's.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a feeling that situation will end up skewing the results. Unfortunately, I can't accurately guess which situation will be less of a disaster. It's really too bad that both didn't end up in good situations so that we could see their talent.
I have no stigma against Kevin Smith at all for being a 3rd rounder. I have no idea which back is more talented between Forte and Smith, and I realize draft position is no guarantee of success or failure. We agree on all of that. I'm simply pointing out that it's nonsensical to call the 3rd rounder elite 4 weeks after he's been drafted and totally dismiss the 2nd rounder. When I read that, I think somebody has gotten carried away in convincing himself something will happen when we have so very little information/knowledge to go on at this point. Things will clear up a bit in a couple of months, and then they'll clear up even further once the season starts. But it's tough to say with that much certainty which one is a better bet at this point with our knowledge limitations. I'm not comfortable with the guesswork going on in determining one as the clear "upside" or "elite" choice over the other.
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:10 AM)
Sorry, just can't let you go now that my favorite thread is up and going again.
Vernon Davis: The hype has cooled off, but the talent is still there. The disastrous SF offense last year would normally make me think he's a great buy low this year. But Martz scares me. Until I see him utilize a TE, I have to wait and see.
Davis ahead of Tony G is interesting. My sense is, for 2008 only, Tony G is a safer option. So I'm guessing your ranking is mostly based on Tony G declining rapidly rather than Davis necessarily outperforming Tony G in 2008.
Vernon Davis: The hype has cooled off, but the talent is still there. The disastrous SF offense last year would normally make me think he's a great buy low this year. But Martz scares me. Until I see him utilize a TE, I have to wait and see.
Davis ahead of Tony G is interesting. My sense is, for 2008 only, Tony G is a safer option. So I'm guessing your ranking is mostly based on Tony G declining rapidly rather than Davis necessarily outperforming Tony G in 2008.
Yes to all of it. We're on the same page with Vernon Davis. How will Martz utilize him? I don't know. He could get some of that slot receiver action. I mean, let's face reality here -- Martz gets banged on a lot b/c he's an easy target, but the guy is an absolutely brilliant offensive mind. If Vernon Davis is one of the Niners most talented offensive players, Martz is going to find a way to get him the ball.
I totally agree that Tony G is safer bet for 2008, but he's in a poor offense with a crappy QB, and he's hitting his decline phase. He's a surefire HOFer, but he's about to enter unchartered territory as a TE still producing elite numbers as a 33-year-old. How long can he keep that up, and how sharp will the decline be?
As always, the rankings depend on your situation. It absolutely makes sense to sell out and go for it all in 2008 if your roster calls for it, in which case Tony G may be worth more to you. To another owner building a talented, youthful nucleus, Davis makes much more sense and has more value.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 10:14 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:03 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 09:27 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
I think there is some unwarranted "Kevin Smith, third round pick" stigma. If he was taken one pick earlier, he's "Kevin Smith, second rounder" the same as "Matt Forte, second rounder".
And just because the Bears thought Forte was worth the 44th pick and was better than Smith doesn't mean every other team - or even a majority of teams - think the same. It just takes one team to cause a player to go too early. And we're talking about a team that took Cedric Benson at #4.
I'm no scout, but from what I've seen on tape, I like Kevin Smith. I like Forte too, but I like Kevin Smith's upside. I wouldn't complain if someone else picked Forte, but I think the talent and situation suggests that Smith has the ability to very, very good. "Elite" may have been overstating it. But I think his ceiling is higher than Forte's.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a feeling that situation will end up skewing the results. Unfortunately, I can't accurately guess which situation will be less of a disaster. It's really too bad that both didn't end up in good situations so that we could see their talent.
I have no stigma against Kevin Smith at all for being a 3rd rounder. I have no idea which back is more talented between Forte and Smith, and I realize draft position is no guarantee of success or failure. We agree on all of that. I'm simply pointing out that it's nonsensical to call the 3rd rounder elite 4 weeks after he's been drafted and totally dismiss the 2nd rounder. When I read that, I think somebody has gotten carried away in convincing himself something will happen when we have so very little information/knowledge to go on at this point. Things will clear up a bit in a couple of months, and then they'll clear up even further once the season starts. But it's tough to say with that much certainty which one is a better bet at this point with our knowledge limitations. I'm not comfortable with the guesswork going on in determining one as the clear "upside" or "elite" choice over the other.
Fair point, which is why I retracted my "elite" comment. And I agree that we'll know more after they start playing.
But doesn't your response mean they should get the same score - either 47 or 48. Your rankings suggest Forte is better than Smith, albeit slightly. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but just hoping to add to the discussion and get you to look at your rankings a little closer.
Seems like the right approach is "what team do you think is a bigger disaster, CHI or DET? Ok, take the RB on the other team."
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:35 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 10:14 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:03 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 09:27 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
I think there is some unwarranted "Kevin Smith, third round pick" stigma. If he was taken one pick earlier, he's "Kevin Smith, second rounder" the same as "Matt Forte, second rounder".
And just because the Bears thought Forte was worth the 44th pick and was better than Smith doesn't mean every other team - or even a majority of teams - think the same. It just takes one team to cause a player to go too early. And we're talking about a team that took Cedric Benson at #4.
I'm no scout, but from what I've seen on tape, I like Kevin Smith. I like Forte too, but I like Kevin Smith's upside. I wouldn't complain if someone else picked Forte, but I think the talent and situation suggests that Smith has the ability to very, very good. "Elite" may have been overstating it. But I think his ceiling is higher than Forte's.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a feeling that situation will end up skewing the results. Unfortunately, I can't accurately guess which situation will be less of a disaster. It's really too bad that both didn't end up in good situations so that we could see their talent.
I have no stigma against Kevin Smith at all for being a 3rd rounder. I have no idea which back is more talented between Forte and Smith, and I realize draft position is no guarantee of success or failure. We agree on all of that. I'm simply pointing out that it's nonsensical to call the 3rd rounder elite 4 weeks after he's been drafted and totally dismiss the 2nd rounder. When I read that, I think somebody has gotten carried away in convincing himself something will happen when we have so very little information/knowledge to go on at this point. Things will clear up a bit in a couple of months, and then they'll clear up even further once the season starts. But it's tough to say with that much certainty which one is a better bet at this point with our knowledge limitations. I'm not comfortable with the guesswork going on in determining one as the clear "upside" or "elite" choice over the other.
Fair point, which is why I retracted my "elite" comment. And I agree that we'll know more after they start playing.
But doesn't your response mean they should get the same score - either 47 or 48. Your rankings suggest Forte is better than Smith, albeit slightly. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but just hoping to add to the discussion and get you to look at your rankings a little closer.
Seems like the right approach is "what team do you think is a bigger disaster, CHI or DET? Ok, take the RB on the other team."
I think we agree more than we disagree, but since we're discussing. . . .
For starters, I'm not going to give every close RB the exact same value. That would get awfully boring and wouldn't really accomplish anything.
Secondly, I don't agree at all that the Bears are a bigger disaster than the Lions. In fact, the Lions have been arguably the biggest disaster in the league for 10 years running.
Thirdly, sometimes you have to go with your gut instinct. I don't know enough yet about the difference in talent level between Smith & Forte, but the situation, draft spot, and early feedback gave Forte an ever so slight advantage in my mind. I never watched either player in college, so (like the great majority of folks here) I'm relying on the limited information available until I actually see them play in their new NFL situations.
I would certainly hope that nobody reading the rankings finds a difference of one point to be a definitive statement one way or another. If so, not only are the rankings not accomplishing their purpose, but I've done a poor job of explaining the reason for switching to the 100 scale instead of a simple counting sequence.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 10:51 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:35 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 10:14 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 01:03 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 09:27 PM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 12:21 AM)
Kevin Smith v. Matt Forte.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
I know you have them close together, but have Forte ahead of Smith. After reading your RB reviews, it sounds like Smith could be higher.
I think Smith should be higher. I think the Chicago offense is a mess and management hasn't shown that it kows how to fix the offense. No veteran WRs? No change at QB? It's bad news.
At least Detroit knew it had to get better and change its system. Kitna's better than Rex. Two great WRs, plus two complements. Drafted an OL in the first round.
They both have risks, but I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think Forte could be Chester Taylor. I think Smith could be elite in a few years. Big if, but in dynasty, I'd rather have the upside.
You've just convinced yourself that Smith could be "elite" and has a much higher ceiling, but that doesn't make it so. Why is a 3rd round pick such a good bet for elite status?
Forte was the higher draft pick. The Bears offense may be troublesome, but the Lions whole organization is a hot mess.
Given their respective opportunities and ostensibly similar talent level, I honestly don't know how you could feel that much conviction either way before seeing them play.
I think there is some unwarranted "Kevin Smith, third round pick" stigma. If he was taken one pick earlier, he's "Kevin Smith, second rounder" the same as "Matt Forte, second rounder".
And just because the Bears thought Forte was worth the 44th pick and was better than Smith doesn't mean every other team - or even a majority of teams - think the same. It just takes one team to cause a player to go too early. And we're talking about a team that took Cedric Benson at #4.
I'm no scout, but from what I've seen on tape, I like Kevin Smith. I like Forte too, but I like Kevin Smith's upside. I wouldn't complain if someone else picked Forte, but I think the talent and situation suggests that Smith has the ability to very, very good. "Elite" may have been overstating it. But I think his ceiling is higher than Forte's.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a feeling that situation will end up skewing the results. Unfortunately, I can't accurately guess which situation will be less of a disaster. It's really too bad that both didn't end up in good situations so that we could see their talent.
I have no stigma against Kevin Smith at all for being a 3rd rounder. I have no idea which back is more talented between Forte and Smith, and I realize draft position is no guarantee of success or failure. We agree on all of that. I'm simply pointing out that it's nonsensical to call the 3rd rounder elite 4 weeks after he's been drafted and totally dismiss the 2nd rounder. When I read that, I think somebody has gotten carried away in convincing himself something will happen when we have so very little information/knowledge to go on at this point. Things will clear up a bit in a couple of months, and then they'll clear up even further once the season starts. But it's tough to say with that much certainty which one is a better bet at this point with our knowledge limitations. I'm not comfortable with the guesswork going on in determining one as the clear "upside" or "elite" choice over the other.
Fair point, which is why I retracted my "elite" comment. And I agree that we'll know more after they start playing.
But doesn't your response mean they should get the same score - either 47 or 48. Your rankings suggest Forte is better than Smith, albeit slightly. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but just hoping to add to the discussion and get you to look at your rankings a little closer.
Seems like the right approach is "what team do you think is a bigger disaster, CHI or DET? Ok, take the RB on the other team."
I think we agree more than we disagree, but since we're discussing. . . .
For starters, I'm not going to give every close RB the exact same value. That would get awfully boring and wouldn't really accomplish anything.
Secondly, I don't agree at all that the Bears are a bigger disaster than the Lions. In fact, the Lions have been arguably the biggest disaster in the league for 10 years running.
Thirdly, sometimes you have to go with your gut instinct. I don't know enough yet about the difference in talent level between Smith & Forte, but the situation, draft spot, and early feedback gave Forte an ever so slight advantage in my mind. I never watched either player in college, so (like the great majority of folks here) I'm relying on the limited information available until I actually see them play in their new NFL situations.
I would certainly hope that nobody reading the rankings finds a difference of one point to be a definitive statement one way or another. If so, not only are the rankings not accomplishing their purpose, but I've done a poor job of explaining the reason for switching to the 100 scale instead of a simple counting sequence.
We do agree more than we disagree. Helpful post - I now understand how small a difference 1 point is on your scale, which is important for me since I value your rankings as I put together my own.
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 11:41 AM)
We do agree more than we disagree.
I like what I've been hearing about Kevin Smith for the past couple of weeks. I still think he and Forte are awfully close in value, but I've moved Smith up a bit in my mind.
What are your thoughts on the Jets RB situation now? You have this on your blog:
They didn't draft anyone, but they did sign Musa Smith.
I'm thinking TJ is very viable as a 3rd, borderline 2nd RB this year. He finished as RB22 in ppr leagues last year with only 2 total TDs, a number that should go up a bit with the revamped o-line. He also started 14, 15, 16, and 14 games the last four seasons, so injury shouldn't be a major concern. His ypc of 3.6 from 2007 is worrisome, but he's a career 4.0 guy with solid receiving skills so I feel like his bread has never really been buttered by busting a gaudy ypc; it's touch volume we want from him.
Going forward, Washington looks like the only threat currently on the roster. We'll probably all expect the Jets to take a RB next year, but if the Jones/Washington combo performs as well as they seem capable, then maybe they won't bring in anyone else yet again.
If nothing else, I feel Jones/Washington owners can make a compelling case to other owners and sell the combo for a good return.
QUOTE
[26] Thomas Jones NYJ 30.0 - With the Jets' re-vamped O-Line, he could move up a bit as long as the Jets don't draft a RB in the first couple of rounds; unfortunately, many suspect the Jets are the likely McFadden landing spot
They didn't draft anyone, but they did sign Musa Smith.
I'm thinking TJ is very viable as a 3rd, borderline 2nd RB this year. He finished as RB22 in ppr leagues last year with only 2 total TDs, a number that should go up a bit with the revamped o-line. He also started 14, 15, 16, and 14 games the last four seasons, so injury shouldn't be a major concern. His ypc of 3.6 from 2007 is worrisome, but he's a career 4.0 guy with solid receiving skills so I feel like his bread has never really been buttered by busting a gaudy ypc; it's touch volume we want from him.
Going forward, Washington looks like the only threat currently on the roster. We'll probably all expect the Jets to take a RB next year, but if the Jones/Washington combo performs as well as they seem capable, then maybe they won't bring in anyone else yet again.
If nothing else, I feel Jones/Washington owners can make a compelling case to other owners and sell the combo for a good return.
QUOTE (valhallan @ Jun 4 2008, 06:31 PM)
What are your thoughts on the Jets RB situation now? You have this on your blog:
They didn't draft anyone, but they did sign Musa Smith.
I'm thinking TJ is very viable as a 3rd, borderline 2nd RB this year. He finished as RB22 in ppr leagues last year with only 2 total TDs, a number that should go up a bit with the revamped o-line. He also started 14, 15, 16, and 14 games the last four seasons, so injury shouldn't be a major concern. His ypc of 3.6 from 2007 is worrisome, but he's a career 4.0 guy with solid receiving skills so I feel like his bread has never really been buttered by busting a gaudy ypc; it's touch volume we want from him.
Going forward, Washington looks like the only threat currently on the roster. We'll probably all expect the Jets to take a RB next year, but if the Jones/Washington combo performs as well as they seem capable, then maybe they won't bring in anyone else yet again.
If nothing else, I feel Jones/Washington owners can make a compelling case to other owners and sell the combo for a good return.
QUOTE
[26] Thomas Jones NYJ 30.0 - With the Jets' re-vamped O-Line, he could move up a bit as long as the Jets don't draft a RB in the first couple of rounds; unfortunately, many suspect the Jets are the likely McFadden landing spot
They didn't draft anyone, but they did sign Musa Smith.
I'm thinking TJ is very viable as a 3rd, borderline 2nd RB this year. He finished as RB22 in ppr leagues last year with only 2 total TDs, a number that should go up a bit with the revamped o-line. He also started 14, 15, 16, and 14 games the last four seasons, so injury shouldn't be a major concern. His ypc of 3.6 from 2007 is worrisome, but he's a career 4.0 guy with solid receiving skills so I feel like his bread has never really been buttered by busting a gaudy ypc; it's touch volume we want from him.
Going forward, Washington looks like the only threat currently on the roster. We'll probably all expect the Jets to take a RB next year, but if the Jones/Washington combo performs as well as they seem capable, then maybe they won't bring in anyone else yet again.
If nothing else, I feel Jones/Washington owners can make a compelling case to other owners and sell the combo for a good return.
Yeah, I haven't updated the player comments lately for various reasons (some more complex than others), but I did update the comments in the latest "Updated Running Back Landscape" section:
QUOTE
NEW YORK JETS
[26] Thomas Jones NYJ 30.0 - 1st & 2nd down
[5] Leon Washington NYJ 26.0 - Change of pace / Passing game
[2] Jesse Chatman NYJ 29.0- Back-up
[2] Musa Smith NYJ 26.3 - Back-up / Special Teams
Outlook: Jones could be in for a nice bouncebank season with the Jets revamping their O-Line, but don't go overboard on expectations. Just because last year's one touchdown performance was an aberration, that doesn't mean he's due to go crazy this seaon as a 30-year-old. Don't rule out the homerun hitter, Leon Washington, stealing a bigger piece of the pie this season either. New signee Musa Smith with compete with Chatman for the 3rd RB job, but both would likely split with Washington in the event of a Jones injury.
Handcuff Grade: 3 out of 5
[26] Thomas Jones NYJ 30.0 - 1st & 2nd down
[5] Leon Washington NYJ 26.0 - Change of pace / Passing game
[2] Jesse Chatman NYJ 29.0- Back-up
[2] Musa Smith NYJ 26.3 - Back-up / Special Teams
Outlook: Jones could be in for a nice bouncebank season with the Jets revamping their O-Line, but don't go overboard on expectations. Just because last year's one touchdown performance was an aberration, that doesn't mean he's due to go crazy this seaon as a 30-year-old. Don't rule out the homerun hitter, Leon Washington, stealing a bigger piece of the pie this season either. New signee Musa Smith with compete with Chatman for the 3rd RB job, but both would likely split with Washington in the event of a Jones injury.
Handcuff Grade: 3 out of 5
If I had the two, I would certainly try to package them though I wouldn't expect any of the smarter owners in my leagues to believe my "compelling" case. Anyway, here's why I would at least try to package them ASAP:
1. I wouldn't want to count on starting Jones weekly. I may be able to compete for a championship with Jones in my starting lineup, but I don't like the odds. If I have a 30-year-old NFL starting RB and he's riding my pine, then I look to deal him. Same thing I said about Travis Henry last offseason. If you can afford to deal him, then trade him to somebody who desperately needs a weekly starter and grab younger, more promising 3rd RB. (In my best league, I recently acquired Pierre Thomas to act as my 3rd RB, and I think he's perfect in that role for dynasty leaguers.)
2. I don't think Leon Washington will ever be a reliable weekly starter in fantasy leagues. Even if Jones goes down, I think he'd split with Musa Smith or Chatman. He's kind of annoying because he's more than handcuff in that he cuts into Jones' production as opposed to simply providing insurance, and he's less than an every down replacement. That package just doesn't have much fantasy value.
Pierre Thomas.
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
Would love to get your thoughts on his prospects. My concern with him is opportunity. How much room is there to produce with Bush in town?
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
Would love to get your thoughts on his prospects. My concern with him is opportunity. How much room is there to produce with Bush in town?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 2 2008, 11:11 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 11:41 AM)
We do agree more than we disagree.
I like what I've been hearing about Kevin Smith for the past couple of weeks. I still think he and Forte are awfully close in value, but I've moved Smith up a bit in my mind.
Benson arrested again. Now what? I have my rookie draft on Monday and was set on taking Smith over Forte at 1.04. But now Forte's opportunity looks more clear. Or maybe it's the same as Smith's. I guess if you take the long term view, you take the most talented - which I think is Smith. But there may be some more trade value in taking Forte. Thoughts?
QUOTE (gheemony @ Jun 7 2008, 01:18 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 2 2008, 11:11 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 11:41 AM)
We do agree more than we disagree.
I like what I've been hearing about Kevin Smith for the past couple of weeks. I still think he and Forte are awfully close in value, but I've moved Smith up a bit in my mind.
Benson arrested again. Now what? I have my rookie draft on Monday and was set on taking Smith over Forte at 1.04. But now Forte's opportunity looks more clear. Or maybe it's the same as Smith's. I guess if you take the long term view, you take the most talented - which I think is Smith. But there may be some more trade value in taking Forte. Thoughts?
First of all, I don't think Benson's arrest changes much in Forte's value . . . but that's mainly because I've been saying all along Benson is done as a starter in this league.
I'm not crazy about picking someone with the intention of trading them. From what I've seen, that rarely works out as well as people think it will.
I always liked Forte's situation. I've never believed Benson was a threat to his value, and I think the Bears would like to run heavily on offense. Smith got drafted by the Lions, which is a red flag, but I like his chances of heavy playing time as well.
It's tough for me to give any advice on which one is the most talented because I haven't seen them play. If I had to pull the trigger today, I go with Forte b/c that's been my gut instinct all along. But if you've always liked Smith better, why not stick with him?
Edit to add: I blogged about the Benson/Forte dynasty impact today.
QUOTE (gheemony @ Jun 5 2008, 01:54 AM)
Pierre Thomas.
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
Would love to get your thoughts on his prospects. My concern with him is opportunity. How much room is there to produce with Bush in town?
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
Would love to get your thoughts on his prospects. My concern with him is opportunity. How much room is there to produce with Bush in town?
I've been sky high on Pierre Thomas all offseason, but especially after I read that Deuce is recovering not just from an ACL injury on one knee but microfracture surgery on another knee. If he comes back and contributes this season, wouldn't that be unprecedented? And why has the New Orleans media not poked around on this one some more? Why has the local as well as the national media accepted the presumption that Deuce could come back and play a significant role this season . . . or ever again? I don't know. Maybe you never role out a motivated professional athlete with a history of success in proving people wrong, but I'm awfully skeptical on this one.
I don't care if the guy was drafted or not. As I'm sure his proponents have probably pointed out, he beat out 4th rounder Antonio Pittman in camp last season, and he kept first round pick Rashard Mendenhall on the bench at Illinois. To me, that means he clearly has talent, and NFL teams whiffed in the draft. Happens all the time.
Re: opportunity. Since Bush has been a terrible runner to date, I haven't really been worried about him blocking another RB in New Orleans. That's not really Bush's role, and it seems to me like Bush will always have a runner splitting time with him in the backfield like Deuce did in Bush's rookie season. I can envision Thomas taking on the Deuce role and then some, considering his strength in the passing game. How that jives with Bush's passing game strength remains to be seen, but Thomas' showing in Week 17 action tells me he'll get a chance to do more if Bush continues to disappoint as a runner.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 7 2008, 02:51 PM)
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
He actually didnt really keep Mendenhall on the bench. He had 52 more carries as a senior than Mendenhall did as a sophmore. Mendenhall also had an 8yd avg to Thomas 5yd avg per attempt. Im in total agreement with you on Thomas and his dynasty prospects though. I think hes primed for a big role going forward
QUOTE (Little Big Head @ Jun 7 2008, 03:24 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 7 2008, 02:51 PM)
You mentioned him in your response re T. Jones and you have him ranked higher than most. There's a good thread in the SP about Thomas as well. On one hand, some point out his undrafted status. On the other hand, some point out that he kept Mendenhall on the bench while at Illinois.
He actually didnt really keep Mendenhall on the bench. He had 52 more carries as a senior than Mendenhall did as a sophmore. Mendenhall also had an 8yd avg to Thomas 5yd avg per attempt. Im in total agreement with you on Thomas and his dynasty prospects though. I think hes primed for a big role going forward
Good catch. I think that's pertinent b/c I've read it in several places that Thomas was basically the starter and Mendenhall the backup.
Could be, though, that the committee approach allowed Thomas to sail under the radar in the draft. If he was splitting carries with a future 1st rounder, his stats are going to look awfully pedestrian in comparison to other prospects.
Or it could be that I see it that way b/c I like Thomas' potential in New Orleans.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 7 2008, 11:41 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ Jun 7 2008, 01:18 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 2 2008, 11:11 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 11:41 AM)
We do agree more than we disagree.
I like what I've been hearing about Kevin Smith for the past couple of weeks. I still think he and Forte are awfully close in value, but I've moved Smith up a bit in my mind.
Benson arrested again. Now what? I have my rookie draft on Monday and was set on taking Smith over Forte at 1.04. But now Forte's opportunity looks more clear. Or maybe it's the same as Smith's. I guess if you take the long term view, you take the most talented - which I think is Smith. But there may be some more trade value in taking Forte. Thoughts?
First of all, I don't think Benson's arrest changes much in Forte's value . . . but that's mainly because I've been saying all along Benson is done as a starter in this league.
I'm not crazy about picking someone with the intention of trading them. From what I've seen, that rarely works out as well as people think it will.
I always liked Forte's situation. I've never believed Benson was a threat to his value, and I think the Bears would like to run heavily on offense. Smith got drafted by the Lions, which is a red flag, but I like his chances of heavy playing time as well.
It's tough for me to give any advice on which one is the most talented because I haven't seen them play. If I had to pull the trigger today, I go with Forte b/c that's been my gut instinct all along. But if you've always liked Smith better, why not stick with him?
Edit to add: I blogged about the Benson/Forte dynasty impact today.
Good point. I've pretty much assumed that Forte would beat out Benson. So I'm leaning towards Smith based on the fact that he's been ahead of forte in my mind since the draft.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 7 2008, 11:41 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ Jun 7 2008, 01:18 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Jun 2 2008, 11:11 AM)
QUOTE (gheemony @ May 24 2008, 11:41 AM)
We do agree more than we disagree.
I like what I've been hearing about Kevin Smith for the past couple of weeks. I still think he and Forte are awfully close in value, but I've moved Smith up a bit in my mind.
Benson arrested again. Now what? I have my rookie draft on Monday and was set on taking Smith over Forte at 1.04. But now Forte's opportunity looks more clear. Or maybe it's the same as Smith's. I guess if you take the long term view, you take the most talented - which I think is Smith. But there may be some more trade value in taking Forte. Thoughts?
First of all, I don't think Benson's arrest changes much in Forte's value . . . but that's mainly because I've been saying all along Benson is done as a starter in this league.
I'm not crazy about picking someone with the intention of trading them. From what I've seen, that rarely works out as well as people think it will.
I always liked Forte's situation. I've never believed Benson was a threat to his value, and I think the Bears would like to run heavily on offense. Smith got drafted by the Lions, which is a red flag, but I like his chances of heavy playing time as well.
It's tough for me to give any advice on which one is the most talented because I haven't seen them play. If I had to pull the trigger today, I go with Forte b/c that's been my gut instinct all along. But if you've always liked Smith better, why not stick with him?
Edit to add: I blogged about the Benson/Forte dynasty impact today.
So sticking with the theme of Forte and the earlier questions about your point rating system to make sure I understand it. As of today, you have Smith and Forte at 49 pts, just behind Michael Turner at 52 points.
I'm sitting 1.04 and will end up with Smith or Forte (or possibly Mendenhall). The owner of 1.05 has offered up 1.05 plus Eli Manning for Michael Turner. Our league is contract based so that you can't keep players forever. I can only keep Michael Turner for 2008, but I can keep the 1.05 pick (presumambly Smith or Forte) for three years. I assume the three point difference is negligible and that the value of Smith or Forte for 3 years far outways Turner for 1 year and Eli Manning for 2 years is just gravy.
BTW, in a start 1 RB and 1 RB/WR league, my other RBs are Peterson (2 yrs), MJD (1 yr), and McGahee (1 yr), so losing Turner shouldn't have a negative impact, but having two young RBs would give me players for future years.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 11:39 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ May 23 2008, 04:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Hey bud, have real life give me a call. I'll set him straight. You have priorities, and it's fantasy football.
Good to hear from you, CP. Real life had to wait a night anyway because cash is too tight to go to the bar.
Gotta pick my battles, so I'll take Saturday/Sunday instead. AFC Running Back Landscape is up as of 11:00 Friday night. I got rolling on this one and ended up a little more long-winded and opinionated than the NFC.
How's come I can't find these NFC/AFC write-ups F&L? I'm up the blog near daily, I can't recall seeing 'em...nor can I find 'em now!
QUOTE (Poppa @ Jun 8 2008, 12:59 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 11:39 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ May 23 2008, 04:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Hey bud, have real life give me a call. I'll set him straight. You have priorities, and it's fantasy football.
Good to hear from you, CP. Real life had to wait a night anyway because cash is too tight to go to the bar.
Gotta pick my battles, so I'll take Saturday/Sunday instead. AFC Running Back Landscape is up as of 11:00 Friday night. I got rolling on this one and ended up a little more long-winded and opinionated than the NFC.
How's come I can't find these NFC/AFC write-ups F&L? I'm up the blog near daily, I can't recall seeing 'em...nor can I find 'em now!
Positional Landscape Posts.
QUOTE (PranksterJD @ Jun 8 2008, 01:41 AM)
QUOTE (Poppa @ Jun 8 2008, 12:59 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 11:39 PM)
QUOTE (Couch Potato @ May 23 2008, 04:01 PM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ May 23 2008, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (ConstruxBoy @ Apr 30 2008, 10:41 PM)
Great stuff as usual F&L. I enjoy checking the blog from time to time.
Thanks, Construx Boy.
FYI, "NFC Running Back Landscape" is updated on the blog's front page today.
As long as real life doesn't intervene, I'll try to get AFC up tonight or at least this weekend.
Hey bud, have real life give me a call. I'll set him straight. You have priorities, and it's fantasy football.
Good to hear from you, CP. Real life had to wait a night anyway because cash is too tight to go to the bar.
Gotta pick my battles, so I'll take Saturday/Sunday instead. AFC Running Back Landscape is up as of 11:00 Friday night. I got rolling on this one and ended up a little more long-winded and opinionated than the NFC.
How's come I can't find these NFC/AFC write-ups F&L? I'm up the blog near daily, I can't recall seeing 'em...nor can I find 'em now!
Positional Landscape Posts.
Thank you!
Hey Chris,
Can you comment on Darius Walker? I was a little surprised not to see him mentioned. None of his competition (Green, Brown, Taylor, Slaton) seems to be that entrenched, especially in a dynasty league. Or are you worried about them bringing in a stud before he gets a chance?
Can you comment on Darius Walker? I was a little surprised not to see him mentioned. None of his competition (Green, Brown, Taylor, Slaton) seems to be that entrenched, especially in a dynasty league. Or are you worried about them bringing in a stud before he gets a chance?
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