Random late afternoon thoughts:
Frank Gore is officially back
Good to see ya, Frank. It's been awhile.
David Carr has now been benched for a 44-year-old fresh off his couch and an undrafted rookie. Worse, he's been severely outplayed by both. I would not be surprised if Carr never starts another NFL game again. This is not hyperbole: you could stick a RB back there and put up a stronger passing attack.
Tony Scheffler reminds me of a young Todd Heap. He's made some incredibly athletic catches today.
Time to fess up on Lee Evans. I jumped ship and sold him while his value was high two weeks ago in both dynasty leagues. To be fair, I probably would have kept him if I wasn't playing in playoff leagues....but I'm not looking back on ole Lee Evans. I just got tired of the Bills passing game doing their best Panthers' running game impression. Starter is underwhelming, backup may be the future, don't trust the coaches to know the answers, and all options are underwhelming.
The Sidney Rice Express is gaining steam.
Why is Rex Grossman starting games for a NFL team? If Griese is healthy, there is no excuse for running Grossman out there. The Bears need to shop for both a franchise QB and a starting RB this offseason. It's a shame they wasted their window on Grossman and put all their rushing attack eggs in Benson's basket this year.
Mr. Pickles was right all along: Eli Manning to suck in NFL. I'm not going to be surprised when the Giants are looking for a franchise QB again within two years.
Chris Brown's return has cut into LenDale White's production, but it's the continued absence of Albert Haynesworth that is killing his value. White isn't the kind of back who will put up numbers unless the Titans are playing with a lead and using their running game to kill the clock. If you didn't sell high on him three weeks ago, well, you should have.
Jamal Lewis' rejuvenation has largely flown under the radar this season. He's far from the ideal dynasty RB, but he's averaging over 4.0 YPC in a stellar offense and getting goal-line carries as well as a few receptions. With his dreamy schedule down the stretch, I think he's a much better use of a dynasty roster spot than guys like Rudi Johnson and Thomas Jones. I would personally take him over LenDale White as well. The question is: will Cleveland re-sign him after the season? As effective as he's been, I would think so....as long as the price in years and dollars is reasonable.
Frank Gore is officially back
Good to see ya, Frank. It's been awhile.David Carr has now been benched for a 44-year-old fresh off his couch and an undrafted rookie. Worse, he's been severely outplayed by both. I would not be surprised if Carr never starts another NFL game again. This is not hyperbole: you could stick a RB back there and put up a stronger passing attack.
Tony Scheffler reminds me of a young Todd Heap. He's made some incredibly athletic catches today.
Time to fess up on Lee Evans. I jumped ship and sold him while his value was high two weeks ago in both dynasty leagues. To be fair, I probably would have kept him if I wasn't playing in playoff leagues....but I'm not looking back on ole Lee Evans. I just got tired of the Bills passing game doing their best Panthers' running game impression. Starter is underwhelming, backup may be the future, don't trust the coaches to know the answers, and all options are underwhelming.
The Sidney Rice Express is gaining steam.
Why is Rex Grossman starting games for a NFL team? If Griese is healthy, there is no excuse for running Grossman out there. The Bears need to shop for both a franchise QB and a starting RB this offseason. It's a shame they wasted their window on Grossman and put all their rushing attack eggs in Benson's basket this year.
Mr. Pickles was right all along: Eli Manning to suck in NFL. I'm not going to be surprised when the Giants are looking for a franchise QB again within two years.
Chris Brown's return has cut into LenDale White's production, but it's the continued absence of Albert Haynesworth that is killing his value. White isn't the kind of back who will put up numbers unless the Titans are playing with a lead and using their running game to kill the clock. If you didn't sell high on him three weeks ago, well, you should have.
Jamal Lewis' rejuvenation has largely flown under the radar this season. He's far from the ideal dynasty RB, but he's averaging over 4.0 YPC in a stellar offense and getting goal-line carries as well as a few receptions. With his dreamy schedule down the stretch, I think he's a much better use of a dynasty roster spot than guys like Rudi Johnson and Thomas Jones. I would personally take him over LenDale White as well. The question is: will Cleveland re-sign him after the season? As effective as he's been, I would think so....as long as the price in years and dollars is reasonable.
Yeah I was just thinking today... why did I keep Olsen instead of picling up Scheffler??? Oiiii mama....
I'll try to put in a claim on him tuesday night, I think he is a better long term option than Olsen. Olsen has talent, but I don't think I trust the Bears to make the right choices with their team that will get a good QB in there to utilize him.
I'll try to put in a claim on him tuesday night, I think he is a better long term option than Olsen. Olsen has talent, but I don't think I trust the Bears to make the right choices with their team that will get a good QB in there to utilize him.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 25 2007, 07:02 PM) 
Mr. Pickles was right all along: Eli Manning to suck in NFL. I'm not going to be surprised when the Giants are looking for a franchise QB again within two years.
Profootballtalk on Eli Manning late Sunday night:
QUOTE
DECISION TIME COMING FOR GIANTS
Coach Tom Coughlin acknowledged on Sunday that he considered the possibility of yanking quarterback Eli Manning once the Giants fell behind the Minnesota Vikings by the score of 41-10.
Coughlin decided against it. "I just don't like that feeling," Coughlin said.
But the franchise soon faces a much broader question regarding whether Eli Manning is the future of the franchise, short-term or long-term. The last three years of his rookie contract will void after the 2007 season. Per a breakdown of the deal posted by ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli in 2004, the Giants can buy back 2008 and 2009 by paying Eli a $5 million bonus, and by paying him base salaries of $8 million in 2008 and $8.5 million in 2009.
So the Giants have to decide whether to pay Manning $21.5 million for two years of work, or whether to try to work out a long-term extension.
Or whether to let him walk.
The other alternative is to try to trade Eli, either in 2008 or in 2009. Maybe, for example, his father's former team, the Saints, will be looking for someone to replace Drew Brees in the next couple of years.
Our guess? If the Giants can stomach the cap numbers tied to Manning for 2008 and 2009, they'll buy back the final two years and make a decision on whether to extend him during or after next season.
But if Eli plans on being the long-term answer in New York, he needs to minimize performances like the one he coughed up on Sunday against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. In a season during which Peyton's kid brother had shown plenty of poise and maturity, that four-interception fiasco might have set him back to square one.
Coach Tom Coughlin acknowledged on Sunday that he considered the possibility of yanking quarterback Eli Manning once the Giants fell behind the Minnesota Vikings by the score of 41-10.
Coughlin decided against it. "I just don't like that feeling," Coughlin said.
But the franchise soon faces a much broader question regarding whether Eli Manning is the future of the franchise, short-term or long-term. The last three years of his rookie contract will void after the 2007 season. Per a breakdown of the deal posted by ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli in 2004, the Giants can buy back 2008 and 2009 by paying Eli a $5 million bonus, and by paying him base salaries of $8 million in 2008 and $8.5 million in 2009.
So the Giants have to decide whether to pay Manning $21.5 million for two years of work, or whether to try to work out a long-term extension.
Or whether to let him walk.
The other alternative is to try to trade Eli, either in 2008 or in 2009. Maybe, for example, his father's former team, the Saints, will be looking for someone to replace Drew Brees in the next couple of years.
Our guess? If the Giants can stomach the cap numbers tied to Manning for 2008 and 2009, they'll buy back the final two years and make a decision on whether to extend him during or after next season.
But if Eli plans on being the long-term answer in New York, he needs to minimize performances like the one he coughed up on Sunday against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. In a season during which Peyton's kid brother had shown plenty of poise and maturity, that four-interception fiasco might have set him back to square one.
Rotoworld also chimed in late Sunday night:
QUOTE
Giants coach Tom Coughlin admitted in his post-game press conference that he considered yanking Eli Manning during Sunday's game.
"In the (NFL), you obviously cannot wrap it up and hand it to the guy across the field, and we did," Coughlin said. Manning completed just 43 percent of his 49 throws Sunday and had three picked and returned for touchdowns. It isn't like Anthony Wright or Jared Lorenzen might be a better option, so it's hard to imagine Manning losing his job outright.
"In the (NFL), you obviously cannot wrap it up and hand it to the guy across the field, and we did," Coughlin said. Manning completed just 43 percent of his 49 throws Sunday and had three picked and returned for touchdowns. It isn't like Anthony Wright or Jared Lorenzen might be a better option, so it's hard to imagine Manning losing his job outright.
As per usual, the Profootballtalk article on Manning makes no sense and the Rotoworld one does.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
QUOTE (The Man Who Met Andy Griffith @ Nov 26 2007, 01:41 AM)
As per usual, the Profootballtalk article on Manning makes no sense and the Rotoworld one does.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
I'm not overreacting to one game. I've never believed Eli was a franchise QB, and I've always seen a QB who shies away from pressure and has issues with accuracy. Much like Rex Grossman, Eli Manning can be rattled too easily and defenders across the NFL know this. I don't believe for a second that he's an above-average young quarterback.
I agree that he's not losing job. I agree that he's not getting traded to the Saints. And I agree that he hasn't "forgotten how to play." But I also question whether the Giants will commit to him as their franchise QB when the time comes to do so. Will Eli fall apart again in the 2nd half of the season? I think the last two are especially germane questions in dynasty leagues.
And it's always worrisome when the head coach admits to thinking about pulling his QB due to poor play.
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
You've been waiting quite some time on Reggie Williams.
"Deceptive speed"? Do you mean he's actually running faster than it looks like he's running? If so, that's interesting. I've seen the majority of Jags games this season, and I've noted on several occasions that he looks very slow compared to other NFL starting WRs. He's still young and has shown somewhat of a penchant for getting in the endzone this season, but he's had only two games with more than two receptions. In covering Jags games, I've also noted that Reggie has been the recipient of an abnormal amount of blown coverage this season....which goes a long way in explaining the TD to receptions ratio.
I don't have any problems bumping him up, but I don't see the upside that you see. I can't see him ever developing into a reliable WR2 in the NFL, much less a WR1.
QUOTE (The Man Who Met Andy Griffith @ Nov 26 2007, 01:41 AM)
As per usual, the Profootballtalk article on Manning makes no sense and the Rotoworld one does.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
More on Eli Manning Sunday night as a lot of people are reacting to Eli's game. This one from SI's Don Banks:
QUOTE
After 50 regular-season starts and just more than three full years of watching his every move, can we just all agree that Eli Manning is what he is? He's never going to be Peyton Manning; and by now, it's our fault if we don't realize where he fits into the pecking order of NFL quarterbacks.
He's a good, but far from great passer, who can still struggle mightily at times to see the field accurately and put the ball where his receivers -- as opposed to defenders -- can catch it.
Manning has never played worse than in the Giants' 41-17 homefield flameout against Minnesota on Sunday, which happened to occur in his 50th regular-season start since being selected first overall in 2004. He threw four interceptions against a Vikings pass defense that was ranked worst in the NFL coming into the game (288.4 yards allowed), with a league-record-tying three of those picks being returned for touchdowns.
Manning now has a ho-hum 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season, and he's just 27-23 as an NFL starter since taking over the No. 1 job in New York on Nov. 21, 2004 -- the 10th game of the Giants' season that year. Factor in his 0-2 playoff mark, and Manning's 27-25 starting record is almost the definition of mediocrity.
The problem, of course, is that .500 records and so-so statistics aren't really allowed when you're drafted No. 1 overall, especially when the team that you play for traded a boatload of picks (and quarterback Philip Rivers) to acquire you. Giants then-general manager Ernie Accorsi gave up so much in that top-of-the-draft deal with San Diego in April 2004, because Manning, hailing from the NFL's first family of quarterbacking, was considered such a safe bet.
Manning has had his moments of superb play, and he does deserve credit for helping New York make the playoffs in both full seasons he has been a starter. But the highlights have been too few and far between, and the struggles too frequent to consider Manning an NFL success story at this point in his career.
He's a Manning, so he'll never completely escape the comparison game. But he's not Peyton Manning, and it seems to be past time for us to stop expecting him to make that distinction disappear. To quote that noted bard from Foxboro, Eli is what he is. And maybe that's all he will ever be.
He's a good, but far from great passer, who can still struggle mightily at times to see the field accurately and put the ball where his receivers -- as opposed to defenders -- can catch it.
Manning has never played worse than in the Giants' 41-17 homefield flameout against Minnesota on Sunday, which happened to occur in his 50th regular-season start since being selected first overall in 2004. He threw four interceptions against a Vikings pass defense that was ranked worst in the NFL coming into the game (288.4 yards allowed), with a league-record-tying three of those picks being returned for touchdowns.
Manning now has a ho-hum 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season, and he's just 27-23 as an NFL starter since taking over the No. 1 job in New York on Nov. 21, 2004 -- the 10th game of the Giants' season that year. Factor in his 0-2 playoff mark, and Manning's 27-25 starting record is almost the definition of mediocrity.
The problem, of course, is that .500 records and so-so statistics aren't really allowed when you're drafted No. 1 overall, especially when the team that you play for traded a boatload of picks (and quarterback Philip Rivers) to acquire you. Giants then-general manager Ernie Accorsi gave up so much in that top-of-the-draft deal with San Diego in April 2004, because Manning, hailing from the NFL's first family of quarterbacking, was considered such a safe bet.
Manning has had his moments of superb play, and he does deserve credit for helping New York make the playoffs in both full seasons he has been a starter. But the highlights have been too few and far between, and the struggles too frequent to consider Manning an NFL success story at this point in his career.
He's a Manning, so he'll never completely escape the comparison game. But he's not Peyton Manning, and it seems to be past time for us to stop expecting him to make that distinction disappear. To quote that noted bard from Foxboro, Eli is what he is. And maybe that's all he will ever be.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 02:35 AM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
You've been waiting quite some time on Reggie Williams.
"Deceptive speed"? Do you mean he's actually running faster than it looks like he's running? If so, that's interesting. I've seen the majority of Jags games this season, and I've noted on several occasions that he looks very slow compared to other NFL starting WRs. He's still young and has shown somewhat of penchant for getting in the endzone this season, but he's had only two games this season with more than two receptions. In covering Jags games, I've also noted that Reggie has been the recipient of an abnormal amount of blown coverage this season....which goes a long way in explaining the TD to receptions ratio.
I don't have any problems bumping him up, but I don't see the upside that you see. I can't see him ever developing into a reliable WR2 in the NFL, much less a WR1.
He's definitely benefited from some defensive mistakes, but isn't that what good players are supposed to do? Capitalize on mistakes? He's not an elite talent and he doesn't make people look silly, but he's shown that he's capable of making big plays. He was touted as good possession WR entering the league and I think he's shown enough hints of fulfilling that potential to warrant slight optimism. I certainly don't think his dynasty value is much less than that of Patrick Crayton or Jacoby Jones. When you get into that range, Reggie starts to become an intriguing option (and as I type this I noticed that you've just moved him up right into that range).
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:56 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 02:35 AM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
You've been waiting quite some time on Reggie Williams.
"Deceptive speed"? Do you mean he's actually running faster than it looks like he's running? If so, that's interesting. I've seen the majority of Jags games this season, and I've noted on several occasions that he looks very slow compared to other NFL starting WRs. He's still young and has shown somewhat of penchant for getting in the endzone this season, but he's had only two games this season with more than two receptions. In covering Jags games, I've also noted that Reggie has been the recipient of an abnormal amount of blown coverage this season....which goes a long way in explaining the TD to receptions ratio.
I don't have any problems bumping him up, but I don't see the upside that you see. I can't see him ever developing into a reliable WR2 in the NFL, much less a WR1.
He's definitely benefited from some defensive mistakes, but isn't that what good players are supposed to do? Capitalize on mistakes? He's not an elite talent and he doesn't make people look silly, but he's shown that he's capable of making big plays. He was touted as good possession WR entering the league and I think he's shown enough hints of fulfilling that potential to warrant slight optimism. I certainly don't think his dynasty value is much less than that of Patrick Crayton or Jacoby Jones. When you get into that range, Reggie starts to become an intriguing option (and as I type this I noticed that you've just moved him up right into that range).
Yeah, at that range it's just a matter of preference. Crayton is an UFA after the season, but if he stays in Dallas he has a major advantage over Williams. In my mind, Jacoby Jones has an advantage over Williams in that he hasn't failed to live up to expectations yet. Doesn't mean he won't, but he hasn't yet. I think I know what we have in Reggie Williams, and it's not something I personally would choose to stash in a dynasty league. But at least he has youth and a high 1st first round pedigree on his side, so it's not hard to find upside there if you're looking around for it.
Rotoworld's Evan Silva had a thought-provoking take on Ricky Williams in this week's Last Minute Decisions:
Great in-depth analysis by Evan of the Ricky Williams situation. It's not always so easy to find that kind of cogitation in the field of fantasy football writers.
QUOTE
I'll admit I wasn't buying into the Ricky hype when it was first announced he'd be reinstated from suspension. At first glance, there were too many factors working against him:
1> Williams hasn't played in the NFL in the last 18 months and wasn't overly impressive as an Argonaut before breaking his arm. Rarely do players coming off extended layoffs approach their old levels of effectiveness. It's why once you're out of the league, it can be so difficult to get back in.
2> Jesse Chatman had been going strong since taking over for Ronnie Brown, averaging 4.6 yards per carry on the season and topping 70 rushing yards in four straight weeks. He'd be hard to take off the field in favor of a guy Dolphins coach Cam Cameron had expressed anything but longing for.
3> Ricky is new to the team. He hasn't played for Cameron. Incumbent backups Patrick Cobbs and Lorenzo Booker both have ability, and even then-fourth stringer Samkon Gado has flashed in limited opportunities. Williams had a five-man depth chart to climb eleven weeks into the season.
But Ricky easily soared past all that depth to take first-team handoffs while Chatman was extremely limited in practice this week. With Chatman questionable and making no obvious progress from his ankle sprain, Williams has the inside track to start on Monday Night Football.
And after further review, there is plenty working in his favor:
1> Ricky does know Cameron's offense. A Norv Turner disciple, Cameron runs basically the same scheme with the same terminology. Turner was the Dolphins' offensive coordinator from 2002-2003, when Williams totaled 3,225 rushing yards and scored 27 touchdowns. So it should be no surprise that he's caught on quickly.
2> The Dolphins have a rookie quarterback they don't want throwing the ball 50 times a game. With an offensive line that's turned a corner under the tutelage of future Hall of Fame coach Hudson Houck, the Dolphins' power running game is hitting on all cylinders.
3> Miami not only has a porous defense its offense has to keep up with on a weekly basis, it also has one it'd prefer to not have on the field for long stretches. There's no better way to combat that than by having long possessions and shoving the ball down opponents' throats.
4> This is a business, and Cameron's Dolphins are 0 for their last 11. Chatman is a free agent at season's end and Brown will be coming off reconstructive knee surgery. Williams remains under contract through 2008. If the 'Fins aren't showcasing Ricky for an offseason trade, it's because they want to make sure he's an option next year if Brown isn't ready and Chatman thinks he'll get a chance to compete to start elsewhere. Ricky is going to play.
Say what you want about Williams, but he's got the smarts and talent to be a contributor. He's an oddity in the NFL, but he's also more gifted than most of the players in it. Williams probably isn't going to get more than 15-20 touches in his first game back, and the odds are against him being a worthwhile fantasy play in such a difficult matchup, whether or not Chatman is inactive. But the opportunity is there for him to be at least a carry sharer down the stretch. You're certainly not going to find a talent like Ricky Williams on a fantasy waiver wire at this time of the year very often. Pick him up for depth, watch him against the Steelers, and see what happens. In this situation, the Dolphins, Williams, and fantasy owners alike have everything to gain.
1> Williams hasn't played in the NFL in the last 18 months and wasn't overly impressive as an Argonaut before breaking his arm. Rarely do players coming off extended layoffs approach their old levels of effectiveness. It's why once you're out of the league, it can be so difficult to get back in.
2> Jesse Chatman had been going strong since taking over for Ronnie Brown, averaging 4.6 yards per carry on the season and topping 70 rushing yards in four straight weeks. He'd be hard to take off the field in favor of a guy Dolphins coach Cam Cameron had expressed anything but longing for.
3> Ricky is new to the team. He hasn't played for Cameron. Incumbent backups Patrick Cobbs and Lorenzo Booker both have ability, and even then-fourth stringer Samkon Gado has flashed in limited opportunities. Williams had a five-man depth chart to climb eleven weeks into the season.
But Ricky easily soared past all that depth to take first-team handoffs while Chatman was extremely limited in practice this week. With Chatman questionable and making no obvious progress from his ankle sprain, Williams has the inside track to start on Monday Night Football.
And after further review, there is plenty working in his favor:
1> Ricky does know Cameron's offense. A Norv Turner disciple, Cameron runs basically the same scheme with the same terminology. Turner was the Dolphins' offensive coordinator from 2002-2003, when Williams totaled 3,225 rushing yards and scored 27 touchdowns. So it should be no surprise that he's caught on quickly.
2> The Dolphins have a rookie quarterback they don't want throwing the ball 50 times a game. With an offensive line that's turned a corner under the tutelage of future Hall of Fame coach Hudson Houck, the Dolphins' power running game is hitting on all cylinders.
3> Miami not only has a porous defense its offense has to keep up with on a weekly basis, it also has one it'd prefer to not have on the field for long stretches. There's no better way to combat that than by having long possessions and shoving the ball down opponents' throats.
4> This is a business, and Cameron's Dolphins are 0 for their last 11. Chatman is a free agent at season's end and Brown will be coming off reconstructive knee surgery. Williams remains under contract through 2008. If the 'Fins aren't showcasing Ricky for an offseason trade, it's because they want to make sure he's an option next year if Brown isn't ready and Chatman thinks he'll get a chance to compete to start elsewhere. Ricky is going to play.
Say what you want about Williams, but he's got the smarts and talent to be a contributor. He's an oddity in the NFL, but he's also more gifted than most of the players in it. Williams probably isn't going to get more than 15-20 touches in his first game back, and the odds are against him being a worthwhile fantasy play in such a difficult matchup, whether or not Chatman is inactive. But the opportunity is there for him to be at least a carry sharer down the stretch. You're certainly not going to find a talent like Ricky Williams on a fantasy waiver wire at this time of the year very often. Pick him up for depth, watch him against the Steelers, and see what happens. In this situation, the Dolphins, Williams, and fantasy owners alike have everything to gain.
Great in-depth analysis by Evan of the Ricky Williams situation. It's not always so easy to find that kind of cogitation in the field of fantasy football writers.
QUOTE (The Man Who Met Andy Griffith @ Nov 26 2007, 01:41 AM)
As per usual, the Profootballtalk article on Manning makes no sense and the Rotoworld one does.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
Let's not overreact to one very bad game. It happens to just about everyone (didn't another guy named Manning have 6 interceptions a few weeks ago?). Manning is an above-average young quarterback. He's not losing his job, he's not getting traded to the Saints, he's not getting cut in the offseason and he hasn't suddenly forgotten how to play.
It really depends on your definition of "average", and I'm not trying to be a rules-lawyer or language nitpicker here- this is actually a very big distinction.
If you mean that Eli Manning is right in the center of the distribution of all young QBs, you're probably right. You've got guys like Palmer, Romo, Roeth, Cutler, Schaub, Garrard, Campbell, and Anderson above him, and guys like Leinart, Young, Croyle, Tarvaris Jackson, Cleo Lemon, J.P. Losman, Alex Smith, and Grossman below him. Look at the names of the guys below him, though- you've got Young and Leinart, who get a pass because of their draft position and because it's only their second year, but every single other one of those guys are guys that opposing fans salivate at the thought of facing, and most hometown fans desperately want replaced. I always play defenses off of waivers, and without fail I pick up and start a defense facing one of those luminaries, regardless of how bad the defense has been in the past. In other words, where Eli Manning is situated on the scale means he's either the best QB that should get fired, or the worst QB that shouldn't get fired- not a comfortable place to be, especially when you've been in the league long enough that you should be peaking right now.
If by "above-average" you are comparing him only to ACTUAL NFL QBs, and not guys like Tarvaris Jackson and Cleo Lemon, then no... in NO WAY is Eli Manning above the median of all legitimate NFL starting QBs. If my starter went down and I had to rely on Eli Manning to win me a few games, I would be fine with that, but I would not want Eli Manning as the long-term future of my franchise. He's just not good enough. He's not stinky, stinky poo, but at the same time, he's just not very good, either.
I think Eli Manning is the new Jay Fiedler, only with more money, more hype, and a bizarre Citizen's commercial declaring him "unstoppable"... (
). QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 25 2007, 06:14 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 25 2007, 02:46 PM)
QUOTE (The Real Deal @ Nov 25 2007, 08:40 AM)
Joseph Addai at #5. RU kidding? For his age, talent and studly offense he is in I'd rank him at #2 and #3 at worst. I'd personally rather have him over LT b/c LT has taken a pounding and is approaching the dreaded 30 mark.
Addai is a very talented back, but a huge chunk of his stats can be attributed to the Colts offensive system (see James, Edgerrin)... and offensive systems don't last forever (see Johnson, Larry). In another offense other than the Colts machine, Addai would be a top-10 back, but one of the nothing-special variety (see Parker, Willie or McGahee, Willis). In Dynasty, you're better off ranking on talent than opportunity, and talent-wise, I just don't see much difference between Addai or FWP. Addai gets ranked ahead of Parker because his system is CURRENTLY better, but not much higher. I definitely don't know how you could justify putting him ahead of anyone ahead of him (Peterson's a stud, Tomlinson's the best fantasy RB in the game even if he does only have 2-3 stud years left, Westbrook is the most underrated RB in the league, and SJax is almost as young as Addai is). If anyone in tier 1 is ranked too low, I think it's Westbrook.
I agree with everything you just said here. And no doubt Westbrook is vastly underrated still in fantasy football circles, but I don't see any way around docking him just a little bit of value for the injury risk.
Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure I agree. Westy's injury problems are overrated- he misses an average of about one game a season, despite how much he appears on the report. I think what you really have to dock for is the fact that Tomlinson has 2266 career carries, while Westbrook only has 931, so I think Westbrook has a longer career left ahead of him (despite being essentially the same age as Tomlinson). And Westbrook is playing better than Tomlinson is right now. I'll probably get lambasted for it, but I'm going to go ahead and call Westbrook the best RB in the league at this moment- not just fantasy (which he is), but reality as well. He's a stud running, catching, AND blocking. He's doing it all on a team with virtually no other offensive weapons, a la Tomlinson early in his career. If someone offered me Tomlinson for Westbrook straight up, I'd have to turn it down. I'd probably punch myself in the face for turning down a 1-for-1 trade that would net me Tomlinson, but I'd still do it.
If I were to do my dynasty rankings, I think I'd have to go Peterson, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson. Obviously, many a reasonable mind would disagree.
I pretty much agree with SSOG here. Westbrook has actually proven to be somewhat reliable at this stage compared to his earlier years. The thing is, these guys are so close, there really is no "right" answer, it's just a matter of preference. However, I do think that AP, Westbrook, and LT are currently the elite of the elite and SJax, Gore, and Addai are right below them in a 2nd tier. The thing that separates those top 3 is their consistency coupled with how explosive they can be, single-handedly winning weeks for their owners.
To put it in perspective, how comfortable would you feel only being down 15 pts with Willie Parker left to go tonight? At the same time, how many people were up by 25 or 30 pts last night vs. Westbrook and felt comforatable?
It's really splitting hairs when trying to compare Westbrook and LT at this point, I think. Westy has now done it enough to justify being as high as he is.
To put it in perspective, how comfortable would you feel only being down 15 pts with Willie Parker left to go tonight? At the same time, how many people were up by 25 or 30 pts last night vs. Westbrook and felt comforatable?
It's really splitting hairs when trying to compare Westbrook and LT at this point, I think. Westy has now done it enough to justify being as high as he is.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 12:43 PM)
He's not stinky, stinky poo, but at the same time, he's just not very good, either.
This might be my favorite thing you have ever written.
Edit and tangent to a previous post of mine in the thread- Man, Gore sure did look slow this week.
Whoops.
However, I do think that AP, Westbrook, and LT are currently the elite of the elite and SJax, Gore, and Addai are right below them in a 2nd tier. The thing that separates those top 3 is their consistency coupled with how explosive they can be, single-handedly winning weeks for their owners.
How can you say that after less than one up and down year AP has been consistent? He's had 4 games under 100 yds, 3 at roughly 100 and two over 200 before getting hurt. Certainly AP has the potential to be a special back, he may even belong in the first tier, but I think a player needs to have more of a track record to be considered consistent.
How can you say that after less than one up and down year AP has been consistent? He's had 4 games under 100 yds, 3 at roughly 100 and two over 200 before getting hurt. Certainly AP has the potential to be a special back, he may even belong in the first tier, but I think a player needs to have more of a track record to be considered consistent.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
I gave up on Reggie. Not becasue he's not good but because he will never seen a consistently high number of targets week after week in Jax and I fully expect them to keep him.....althought they are not know for being able to evaluate offensive talent in the passing game.....Dropcutt, Bustholio Jones, etc.
I'm working on a Brian Westbrook response, but I just wanted to confess something really quickly:
I'm 33-years-old, I've never smoked pot in my life, and I like Ricky Williams....still. Go Ricky!
I'm 33-years-old, I've never smoked pot in my life, and I like Ricky Williams....still. Go Ricky!
F+L;
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 03:08 AM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:56 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 02:35 AM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 26 2007, 02:20 AM)
Reggie Williams is starting to make some plays for the Jaguars. More importantly, he's actually starting to flash some of the talent that made him a top 10 pick. He's made some nice catch-and-runs over the past few weeks. His speed is deceptive and he's strong enough to bounce off tackles. I always thought he was a good player in college and I always thought he'd eventually develop into a WR1 in the NFL. It's too early to move him up with the elite receivers, but a slight bump seems in order. He probably belongs somewhere in your fifth tier IMO.
You've been waiting quite some time on Reggie Williams.
"Deceptive speed"? Do you mean he's actually running faster than it looks like he's running? If so, that's interesting. I've seen the majority of Jags games this season, and I've noted on several occasions that he looks very slow compared to other NFL starting WRs. He's still young and has shown somewhat of penchant for getting in the endzone this season, but he's had only two games this season with more than two receptions. In covering Jags games, I've also noted that Reggie has been the recipient of an abnormal amount of blown coverage this season....which goes a long way in explaining the TD to receptions ratio.
I don't have any problems bumping him up, but I don't see the upside that you see. I can't see him ever developing into a reliable WR2 in the NFL, much less a WR1.
He's definitely benefited from some defensive mistakes, but isn't that what good players are supposed to do? Capitalize on mistakes? He's not an elite talent and he doesn't make people look silly, but he's shown that he's capable of making big plays. He was touted as good possession WR entering the league and I think he's shown enough hints of fulfilling that potential to warrant slight optimism. I certainly don't think his dynasty value is much less than that of Patrick Crayton or Jacoby Jones. When you get into that range, Reggie starts to become an intriguing option (and as I type this I noticed that you've just moved him up right into that range).
Yeah, at that range it's just a matter of preference. Crayton is an UFA after the season, but if he stays in Dallas he has a major advantage over Williams. In my mind, Jacoby Jones has an advantage over Williams in that he hasn't failed to live up to expectations yet. Doesn't mean he won't, but he hasn't yet. I think I know what we have in Reggie Williams, and it's not something I personally would choose to stash in a dynasty league. But at least he has youth and a high 1st first round pedigree on his side, so it's not hard to find upside there if you're looking around for it.
I really appreciate the discussion on Reggie Williams as an owner who hasn't seen many Jaguars games this year. I have been encouraged by his performance given limited looks, but it sounds like a difference of opinion in terms of how good he really can be. The one reason I have held onto him is the red zone ability (I remember Chris Carter and how "all he could do was score TDs), and I wonder if the problem may not be the HC/OC and QB. He has never played with an elite or even average QB. No other WRs have performed well since the new coaching regime. But will he get out of there soon?
How would people compare him to a guy like Mike Walker on IR or Paul Williams. These guys generated a lot of preseason enthusiasm but neither plays in a good situation and I don't know much about them.
QUOTE (mulliganm @ Nov 26 2007, 10:12 PM)
F+L;
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
I think there were two reasons behind dropping him (other than the fact that I dropped him right before game time last night).
1. I had really high expectations for Brown coming into this season. I thought he was the 3rd year WR with the best chance to break out based on his production while Stallworth was out last season. Instead, he's been AWOL for a good portion of the season. Kevin Curtis has been incredibly inconsistent but at least he puts up 5 for 50 on his bad weeks. I've just reached the point where I've soured on Brown.
2. Brown's drop was as much about moving rookies Sidney Rice, Ted Ginn, and Anthony Gonzalez up as it was about moving Brown down. I just don't think he has the upside that those young WRs have. Brown should be a starting fantasy WR at this stage of his career, and he's just not.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 12:43 PM)
In other words, where Eli Manning is situated on the scale means he's either the best QB that should get fired, or the worst QB that shouldn't get fired- not a comfortable place to be, especially when you've been in the league long enough that you should be peaking right now.
If you could sum up Eli Manning's NFL and dynasty value in one sentence, this would be it.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 12:43 PM)
....and a bizarre Citizen's commercial declaring him "unstoppable"... ( ).
).I had the same reaction when I saw the commercial. "Who the hell is giving Eli a national endorsement spot? That's just bizarre." I noticed Citizen's replaced the Eli spot with some "unstoppable" tennis check last night after it was pretty obvious that if unstoppable is Tokyo then Eli is London.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 02:15 PM)
Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure I agree. Westy's injury problems are overrated- he misses an average of about one game a season, despite how much he appears on the report. I think what you really have to dock for is the fact that Tomlinson has 2266 career carries, while Westbrook only has 931, so I think Westbrook has a longer career left ahead of him (despite being essentially the same age as Tomlinson). And Westbrook is playing better than Tomlinson is right now. I'll probably get lambasted for it, but I'm going to go ahead and call Westbrook the best RB in the league at this moment- not just fantasy (which he is), but reality as well. He's a stud running, catching, AND blocking. He's doing it all on a team with virtually no other offensive weapons, a la Tomlinson early in his career. If someone offered me Tomlinson for Westbrook straight up, I'd have to turn it down. I'd probably punch myself in the face for turning down a 1-for-1 trade that would net me Tomlinson, but I'd still do it.
If I were to do my dynasty rankings, I think I'd have to go Peterson, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson. Obviously, many a reasonable mind would disagree.
If I were to do my dynasty rankings, I think I'd have to go Peterson, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson. Obviously, many a reasonable mind would disagree.
Those Westbrook injury concerns aren't overrated if he's your RB1, and you wake up every Monday morning to find a fresh Rotoworld blurb on a newly injured body part. You expect that he'll practice come Friday, but the constant gnawing anxiety about his body parts wears paper thin on those weeks when he's a game time decision. And those weeks seem to come about once a month every month. At some point, you just figure that your luck and his luck will run out with the mounting injuries. In the meantime, I'll just ride that horse and cross my fingers.
Contrast that with Tomlinson, who is never on the injury report. I'm good friends with the guy in my league who has had Tomlinson on his roster from day one of his rookie season, and I would be shocked if he's ever had more than one week since 2001 where he was concerned about Tomlinson playing. And I know that he's never had doubts about Tomlinson suffering a serious injury.
To Westbrook's enduring credit, he manages to suit up and produce almost without fail. But I can't help but be concerned when the guy is a mainstay on the injury report, has chronic knee pain, and ends up as a game time decision so regularly.
I'd put a copy-and-paste Rotoworld blurb summary of his ailments down here if it wouldn't take up half the page. Just go back and look at the past two seasons. There's a blurb updating Westbrook's condition more weeks than there's not. That's not normal.
I'd be hardpressed to trade Westbrook because you can't replace his production. But there hasn't been a week since I traded for him last season that I've managed to assuage concerns about him going down with an injury or even suiting up to play the game that week. He's a leadpipe cinch for 100 combined yards, one TD, and a body part update every week.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 10:28 PM)
QUOTE (mulliganm @ Nov 26 2007, 10:12 PM)
F+L;
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
I'm surprised you dropped Reggie Brown since this week. He had 5 catches, a TD and another catch where he was knocked OB at the 1 foot line. After holding him in the mid-upper 30's all year, I'm surprised that after what may have been his best week, you drop him a tier.
Any explanation?
I think there were two reasons behind dropping him (other than the fact that I dropped him right before game time last night).
1. I had really high expectations for Brown coming into this season. I thought he was the 3rd year WR with the best chance to break out based on his production while Stallworth was out last season. Instead, he's been AWOL for a good portion of the season. Kevin Curtis has been incredibly inconsistent but at least he puts up 5 for 50 on his bad weeks. I've just reached the point where I've soured on Brown.
I certainly had similar hopes. I went into this year with Brown as my WR2 and have been severely disappointed. That said, I think that since the bye, he has started improving...This is his fantasy scoring in PPR this year:
Brown, Reggie WR PHI 2 4 4 4 BYE 14 8 18 7 14 3 15
I'm not sure that he is a reliable option yet, but, for comparison, here are a few other WR's that have higher ratings:
Chambers, Chris WR SD 15 19 16 4 3 13 0 11 10 3 13 13
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 7 6 51 4 0 23 11 10 10 5 11 12
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ 11 23 10 18 7 13 18 9 13 0 1 6
Williams, Roy WR DET 12 22 35 11 6 0 5 15 7 22 16 6
Just considering the games since the bye week, Reggie has not been a much worse option than most of these other guys. I certainly can't argue that Brown is as good as Roy Williams, but I think he is at least comparable to these other WR's.
QUOTE
2. Brown's drop was as much about moving rookies Sidney Rice, Ted Ginn, and Anthony Gonzalez up as it was about moving Brown down. I just don't think he has the upside that those young WRs have. Brown should be a starting fantasy WR at this stage of his career, and he's just not.
Fair enough with this. Ginn, Rice, and Gonzalez all had a good week - I'm just surprised it was Brown that oved down after probably his best game of the year.
QUOTE (mulliganm @ Nov 26 2007, 11:17 PM)
I certainly had similar hopes. I went into this year with Brown as my WR2 and have been severely disappointed. That said, I think that since the bye, he has started improving...This is his fantasy scoring in PPR this year:
Brown, Reggie WR PHI 2 4 4 4 BYE 14 8 18 7 14 3 15
I'm not sure that he is a reliable option yet, but, for comparison, here are a few other WR's that have higher ratings:
Chambers, Chris WR SD 15 19 16 4 3 13 0 11 10 3 13 13
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 7 6 51 4 0 23 11 10 10 5 11 12
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ 11 23 10 18 7 13 18 9 13 0 1 6
Williams, Roy WR DET 12 22 35 11 6 0 5 15 7 22 16 6
Just considering the games since the bye week, Reggie has not been a much worse option than most of these other guys. I certainly can't argue that Brown is as good as Roy Williams, but I think he is at least comparable to these other WR's.
Brown, Reggie WR PHI 2 4 4 4 BYE 14 8 18 7 14 3 15
I'm not sure that he is a reliable option yet, but, for comparison, here are a few other WR's that have higher ratings:
Chambers, Chris WR SD 15 19 16 4 3 13 0 11 10 3 13 13
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 7 6 51 4 0 23 11 10 10 5 11 12
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ 11 23 10 18 7 13 18 9 13 0 1 6
Williams, Roy WR DET 12 22 35 11 6 0 5 15 7 22 16 6
Just considering the games since the bye week, Reggie has not been a much worse option than most of these other guys. I certainly can't argue that Brown is as good as Roy Williams, but I think he is at least comparable to these other WR's.
I give the rest of those guys more credit for upside than I do with Reggie Brown. It's subjective, I know, but once I sour on a guy it's hard to get the feeling back. It's like when you fall out of love with a girl. You can't just re-create the feeling.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 26 2007, 11:01 PM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 02:15 PM)
Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure I agree. Westy's injury problems are overrated- he misses an average of about one game a season, despite how much he appears on the report. I think what you really have to dock for is the fact that Tomlinson has 2266 career carries, while Westbrook only has 931, so I think Westbrook has a longer career left ahead of him (despite being essentially the same age as Tomlinson). And Westbrook is playing better than Tomlinson is right now. I'll probably get lambasted for it, but I'm going to go ahead and call Westbrook the best RB in the league at this moment- not just fantasy (which he is), but reality as well. He's a stud running, catching, AND blocking. He's doing it all on a team with virtually no other offensive weapons, a la Tomlinson early in his career. If someone offered me Tomlinson for Westbrook straight up, I'd have to turn it down. I'd probably punch myself in the face for turning down a 1-for-1 trade that would net me Tomlinson, but I'd still do it.
If I were to do my dynasty rankings, I think I'd have to go Peterson, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson. Obviously, many a reasonable mind would disagree.
If I were to do my dynasty rankings, I think I'd have to go Peterson, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson. Obviously, many a reasonable mind would disagree.
Those Westbrook injury concerns aren't overrated if he's your RB1, and you wake up every Monday morning to find a fresh Rotoworld blurb on a newly injured body part. You expect that he'll practice come Friday, but the constant gnawing anxiety about his body parts wears paper thin on those weeks when he's a game time decision. And those weeks seem to come about once a month every month. At some point, you just figure that your luck and his luck will run out with the mounting injuries. In the meantime, I'll just ride that horse and cross my fingers.
Contrast that with Tomlinson, who is never on the injury report. I'm good friends with the guy in my league who has had Tomlinson on his roster from day one of his rookie season, and I would be shocked if he's ever had more than one week since 2001 where he was concerned about Tomlinson playing. And I know that he's never had doubts about Tomlinson suffering a serious injury.
To Westbrook's enduring credit, he manages to suit up and produce almost without fail. But I can't help but be concerned when the guy is a mainstay on the injury report, has chronic knee pain, and ends up as a game time decision so regularly.
I'd put a copy-and-paste Rotoworld blurb summary of his ailments down here if it wouldn't take up half the page. Just go back and look at the past two seasons. There's a blurb updating Westbrook's condition more weeks than there's not. That's not normal.
I'd be hardpressed to trade Westbrook because you can't replace his production. But there hasn't been a week since I traded for him last season that I've managed to assuage concerns about him going down with an injury or even suiting up to play the game that week. He's a leadpipe cinch for 100 combined yards, one TD, and a body part update every week.
Maybe I've become hardened to it, but Westbrook's nicks don't bother me anymore. I see an injury update on him, I don't even bat an eyelash until Reid says he's expecting Westbrook to miss time. I'm reminded of Steve McNair back when he was in league MVP form. I can see how some people might be upset that Westbrook's always on the report... but I'm just honestly not.
It helps that in one of the leagues I own him in (the only dynasty league I'm in), there's a "reserve" option, where when you set your starting lineup, you can designate reserves in case your player is declared a gameday inactive. For others who don't have this rule yet, I would STRONGLY recommend it. I can promise you that it was incredibly comforting this week knowing that if Selvin Young wasn't good to go, I had Kevin Jones and his 30.4 points (yardage heavy league) ready to take his place. In weeks where there are Thursday games, it can literally be a season-saver. Even with the reserve option, though, I've only wound up backing up Westbrook once this year- the week he actually wound up missing. Maybe I shouldn't be so cavalier with his injuries, but I treat seeing Westbrook on the report much the same way I treat seeing Tom Brady on every single injury report.
If you've been holding onto Marcedes Lewis patiently waiting for him to turn the corner, there is at last some light at the end of the tunnel.
Lewis looks fully recovered from his mid-season knee injury that saw George Wrighster and Greg Estandia usurping many of the tight end targets in JAX. While Lewis is healthy, the Jags put both Wrightster and Estandia on IR today after the injuries they suffered yesterday. Lewis figures to benefit with a substantial role in the offense and has a chance to build on his 5 catch / 57 yard performance this week.
There is hope for Lewis after Week 12 just as there was hope for Tony Scheffler after Weeks 5 & 6.
Lewis looks fully recovered from his mid-season knee injury that saw George Wrighster and Greg Estandia usurping many of the tight end targets in JAX. While Lewis is healthy, the Jags put both Wrightster and Estandia on IR today after the injuries they suffered yesterday. Lewis figures to benefit with a substantial role in the offense and has a chance to build on his 5 catch / 57 yard performance this week.
There is hope for Lewis after Week 12 just as there was hope for Tony Scheffler after Weeks 5 & 6.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 12:23 AM)
...but I treat seeing Westbrook on the report much the same way I treat seeing Tom Brady on every single injury report.
Personally, I think Brady and Westbrook are apples and oranges. Brady is never a game time decision, Brady doesn't collect new injuries bi-weekly, and Brady isn't put through the heavy wear and tear grinder that your example McNair as well as Westbrook go through. Westbrook is a tough hombre, but his injuries are real.
I actually think your McNair example is much more cogent. He missed a couple of games yearly starting in his late 20s, he was a regular on the injury report, he had one season cut in half, and the constant wear and tear shortened his prime.
I just don't think you can ignore the recurring, shadowy knee soreness on top of a laundry list of ongoing wear and tear injuries with a 28-year-old RB in dynasty leagues. For me, there's no getting around its presence as at least a slight factor in evaluation.
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 27 2007, 12:43 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 12:23 AM)
...but I treat seeing Westbrook on the report much the same way I treat seeing Tom Brady on every single injury report.
Personally, I think Brady and Westbrook are apples and oranges. Brady is never a game time decision, Brady doesn't collect new injuries bi-weekly, and Brady isn't put through the heavy wear and tear grinder that your example McNair as well as Westbrook go through. Westbrook is a tough hombre, but his injuries are real.
I wasn't saying that Westbrook to Brady was an apples to apples comparison, I was saying that at this point I have become so hardened to the sight of Westy on the report that I don't even blink at it, much like I don't blink at the sight of Brady on the report. I mean, I know before the report comes out that both are going to be on it. I don't lose much sleep over it. As I said, maybe it's just me, but I personally believe that some fantasy owners need to be made of slightly sterner stuff, what with the way they're always complaining about how their RB is nicked or how their coach said something positive about his backup or how the RB that they drafted #1 overall currently only ranks #2 overall.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 01:01 AM)
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 27 2007, 12:43 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 12:23 AM)
...but I treat seeing Westbrook on the report much the same way I treat seeing Tom Brady on every single injury report.
Personally, I think Brady and Westbrook are apples and oranges. Brady is never a game time decision, Brady doesn't collect new injuries bi-weekly, and Brady isn't put through the heavy wear and tear grinder that your example McNair as well as Westbrook go through. Westbrook is a tough hombre, but his injuries are real.
I wasn't saying that Westbrook to Brady was an apples to apples comparison, I was saying that at this point I have become so hardened to the sight of Westy on the report that I don't even blink at it, much like I don't blink at the sight of Brady on the report. I mean, I know before the report comes out that both are going to be on it. I don't lose much sleep over it. As I said, maybe it's just me, but I personally believe that some fantasy owners need to be made of slightly sterner stuff, what with the way they're always complaining about how their RB is nicked or how their coach said something positive about his backup or how the RB that they drafted #1 overall currently only ranks #2 overall.
Preach on, Brother SSOG. I'm with you.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 26 2007, 12:43 PM)
If my starter went down and I had to rely on Eli Manning to win me a few games, I would be fine with that, but I would not want Eli Manning as the long-term future of my franchise. He's just not good enough. He's not stinky, stinky poo, but at the same time, he's just not very good, either.
I promise I'll drop the Eli situation after this post, but I find the Giants' conundrum gripping for dynasty leaguers. Do they stand by Eli and go forward with him at obscene
this offseason, or do they admit Eli isn't what they're after in a franchise QB? Here's Profootballtalk again on Eli from earlier on Monday:QUOTE
MANNING HAS HUGE 2008 CAP NUMBER
We posted earlier on Monday an item regarding Eli Manning's contract, which had two voidable years (2008 and 2009) and a buy-back provision. As a league source tells us, and as Mark Maske of the Washington Post reported at the time, the Giants exercised the buy-back in March 2007.
So, as a result of the buy-back and other tweaks to the rookie deal, the Giants currently are on the hook for $8.45 million in 2008 base salary and $8.5 million in 2009 base salary. Manning's cap number for 2008, we're told, is a whopping $11.4 million. (The cap number would be higher, but there was a "Deion Sanders rule" issue that required the team to take a $700,000 charge earlier in the deal.)
We're also told that Manning's bonus proration will count $3.6 million against the cap in 2008 and $3.6 million against the cap in 2009. Thus, if the Giants were to cut him or trade him before June 1 of 2008, they would carry $7.2 million in dead money in 2008, but save $8.45 million in cash and reduce his cap number by $4 million. A cut or a trade after June 1 (or a pre-June 1 cut that is designated under the CBA as a post-June 1 transaction), would save $8.45 million in cash and $7.6 million in cap space in 2008, but would cost $3.6 million against the cap in 2009.
Bottom line? Even though the Giants have already made the decision to buy back the next two years of the deal, they still face a tough question come 2008: Is Eli worth a cap number of $11.2 million and $8.45 million in salary for one year of football?
We posted earlier on Monday an item regarding Eli Manning's contract, which had two voidable years (2008 and 2009) and a buy-back provision. As a league source tells us, and as Mark Maske of the Washington Post reported at the time, the Giants exercised the buy-back in March 2007.
So, as a result of the buy-back and other tweaks to the rookie deal, the Giants currently are on the hook for $8.45 million in 2008 base salary and $8.5 million in 2009 base salary. Manning's cap number for 2008, we're told, is a whopping $11.4 million. (The cap number would be higher, but there was a "Deion Sanders rule" issue that required the team to take a $700,000 charge earlier in the deal.)
We're also told that Manning's bonus proration will count $3.6 million against the cap in 2008 and $3.6 million against the cap in 2009. Thus, if the Giants were to cut him or trade him before June 1 of 2008, they would carry $7.2 million in dead money in 2008, but save $8.45 million in cash and reduce his cap number by $4 million. A cut or a trade after June 1 (or a pre-June 1 cut that is designated under the CBA as a post-June 1 transaction), would save $8.45 million in cash and $7.6 million in cap space in 2008, but would cost $3.6 million against the cap in 2009.
Bottom line? Even though the Giants have already made the decision to buy back the next two years of the deal, they still face a tough question come 2008: Is Eli worth a cap number of $11.2 million and $8.45 million in salary for one year of football?
Gregg Rosenthal tackled Reggie Bush in the intro to this week's Morning After:
Interesting comment from Gregg on Chad Johnson:
1. Well said on yards turning into points eventually.
2. Surprising that Chad Johnson is on pace for career highs in yards and receptions. It speaks to his greatness...
On Frank Gore:
On Jamal Lewis:
On Kellen Winslow's hands:
QUOTE
Reggie Bush was a third-down back Sunday. In a sequence that was typical of the rest of the game, Bush was on the sideline to start the game while Aaron Stecker lined up at running back. Bush came in for the second play at wide receiver. On third-down, Bush moved to tailback and caught a five-yard pass. Stecker wound up with more carries, and had three touches inside the five-yard line, while Reggie had two near the stripe.
Bush's day, and possibly his career, can be summed up during a third quarter play. Bush took a carry from the 12-yard line, got stuck in traffic, then made a terrific escape by changing directions and getting to the outside of the Panthers defense. It looked like he was going to make it all the way for the score, but Panthers CB Richard Marshall ran Bush down to hold him to a seven-yard gain. In college, he scores on that play [
]. Stecker took the next two snaps.
Yes, the Saints were concerned with Bush's bruised shin and eased up on his workload. But it's possible that Sean Payton saw a better Saints offense with Bush's role reduced back to pre-Deuce McAllister injury levels.
Bush's quiet game on Sunday can be forgiven. But with the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, the Saints' offensive dominance without Bush's help is a bigger concern.
Bush's day, and possibly his career, can be summed up during a third quarter play. Bush took a carry from the 12-yard line, got stuck in traffic, then made a terrific escape by changing directions and getting to the outside of the Panthers defense. It looked like he was going to make it all the way for the score, but Panthers CB Richard Marshall ran Bush down to hold him to a seven-yard gain. In college, he scores on that play [
]. Stecker took the next two snaps.Yes, the Saints were concerned with Bush's bruised shin and eased up on his workload. But it's possible that Sean Payton saw a better Saints offense with Bush's role reduced back to pre-Deuce McAllister injury levels.
Bush's quiet game on Sunday can be forgiven. But with the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, the Saints' offensive dominance without Bush's help is a bigger concern.
Interesting comment from Gregg on Chad Johnson:
QUOTE
Yards eventually turn into points. Chad Johnson didn't do that much differently on Sunday, but he was handed single coverage near the goal line and took advantage. Ocho Cinco is on pace for career highs in yards and receptions.
1. Well said on yards turning into points eventually.
2. Surprising that Chad Johnson is on pace for career highs in yards and receptions. It speaks to his greatness...
On Frank Gore:
QUOTE
Trent Dilfer has played back-to-back competent games, and that helped open up lanes for Frank Gore to be the Inconvenient Truth. Gore finally rewarded the faithful with 214 total yards, two scores, and eleven catches. He showed power, nifty moves, and versatility like he did in 2006 when he was the second-best running back in football. Gore has a couple good matchups left (CAR, CIN) and a couple tough ones (MIN, TB), but he's going to tough to sit after this one. I feel a few pounds lighter 
.
.On Jamal Lewis:
QUOTE
I've dogged Jamal Lewis for his inconsistent play this season and for his consistently poor play in Baltimore the last few years. But after watching him churn through Houston's defense Sunday, never going down at first contact, it's clear he has something left.
The Browns have kept Lewis' workload in check all season, so he should be able to bounce back from his 29-carry effort. With 269 total yards in his last two games, Lewis appears to be peaking in time for a cake playoff schedule. Defenses are playing Cleveland deep to prevent the long pass, making Lewis a solid RB2 down the stretch.
The Browns have kept Lewis' workload in check all season, so he should be able to bounce back from his 29-carry effort. With 269 total yards in his last two games, Lewis appears to be peaking in time for a cake playoff schedule. Defenses are playing Cleveland deep to prevent the long pass, making Lewis a solid RB2 down the stretch.
On Kellen Winslow's hands:
QUOTE
No one in football has better hands than Kellen Winslow. Despite average post-surgery speed, Winslow consistently makes impossible grabs with his hands and holds on to the ball after taking a big hit. With 10 catches, 107 yards and a score, Winslow has emerged as the second-best tight end in fantasy football.
QUOTE
Reggie Bush was a third-down back Sunday. In a sequence that was typical of the rest of the game, Bush was on the sideline to start the game while Aaron Stecker lined up at running back. Bush came in for the second play at wide receiver. On third-down, Bush moved to tailback and caught a five-yard pass. Stecker wound up with more carries, and had three touches inside the five-yard line, while Reggie had two near the stripe.
Bush's day, and possibly his career, can be summed up during a third quarter play. Bush took a carry from the 12-yard line, got stuck in traffic, then made a terrific escape by changing directions and getting to the outside of the Panthers defense. It looked like he was going to make it all the way for the score, but Panthers CB Richard Marshall ran Bush down to hold him to a seven-yard gain. In college, he scores on that play []. Stecker took the next two snaps.
Yes, the Saints were concerned with Bush's bruised shin and eased up on his workload. But it's possible that Sean Payton saw a better Saints offense with Bush's role reduced back to pre-Deuce McAllister injury levels.
Bush's quiet game on Sunday can be forgiven. But with the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, the Saints' offensive dominance without Bush's help is a bigger concern.
Bush's day, and possibly his career, can be summed up during a third quarter play. Bush took a carry from the 12-yard line, got stuck in traffic, then made a terrific escape by changing directions and getting to the outside of the Panthers defense. It looked like he was going to make it all the way for the score, but Panthers CB Richard Marshall ran Bush down to hold him to a seven-yard gain. In college, he scores on that play [
]. Stecker took the next two snaps.Yes, the Saints were concerned with Bush's bruised shin and eased up on his workload. But it's possible that Sean Payton saw a better Saints offense with Bush's role reduced back to pre-Deuce McAllister injury levels.
Bush's quiet game on Sunday can be forgiven. But with the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, the Saints' offensive dominance without Bush's help is a bigger concern.
The funny thing about this is that Bush abused Richard Marshall when USC played Fresno in 2005. He made him look silly on multiple plays that can be seen on any of his YouTube highlight reels. If he didn't score then he didn't score. But it wasn't because of Richard Marshall.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 02:38 AM)
The funny thing about this is that Bush abused Richard Marshall when USC played Fresno in 2005. He made him look silly on multiple plays that can be seen on any of his YouTube highlight reels. If he didn't score then he didn't score. But it wasn't because of Richard Marshall.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
Potential is a four-letter word. Ryan Leaf had worlds of potential. Jeff George's potential was unlimited. At some point, I just don't care what a player's potential is, anymore- I care what his production is.
Now, I think that Bush might one day produce at the level of a Westbrook or a Barber, but we are fast nearing "put up or shut up" time, in my opinion, given how quickly RBs typically develop. Ronnie Brown might have earned him a stay of execution, though- I'm a little bit slower to jump ship on a back after seeing Brown set the world on fire earlier this season after two tremendously disappointing years.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 02:38 AM)
The funny thing about this is that Bush abused Richard Marshall when USC played Fresno in 2005. He made him look silly on multiple plays that can be seen on any of his YouTube highlight reels. If he didn't score then he didn't score. But it wasn't because of Richard Marshall.
I don't know about any of that, but Richard Marshall put up a dominant 1st half performance against the Saints on Sunday. By halftime, he had shut down Marques Colston, led the team with 8 tackles, and broke up a couple of passes to boot. He was the Panthers defense while they kept it close early in spite of David Carr's efforts to give the game away.
Obviously the Panthers defense flaked out in the 2nd half under the weight of the offense's total ineptitude, but Richard Marshall had a truly outstanding game. I don't watch the Panthers regularly (thank god), so I don't know if Marshall is a Pro-Bowl caliber player regularly, but he was against the Saints.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 09:11 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 02:38 AM)
The funny thing about this is that Bush abused Richard Marshall when USC played Fresno in 2005. He made him look silly on multiple plays that can be seen on any of his YouTube highlight reels. If he didn't score then he didn't score. But it wasn't because of Richard Marshall.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
Potential is a four-letter word. Ryan Leaf had worlds of potential. Jeff George's potential was unlimited. At some point, I just don't care what a player's potential is, anymore- I care what his production is.
Now, I think that Bush might one day produce at the level of a Westbrook or a Barber, but we are fast nearing "put up or shut up" time, in my opinion, given how quickly RBs typically develop. Ronnie Brown might have earned him a stay of execution, though- I'm a little bit slower to jump ship on a back after seeing Brown set the world on fire earlier this season after two tremendously disappointing years.
These are the two key phrases here: "At some point" and "fast nearing put up or shut up time."
Obviously every player has to produce at some point, but do we hold different players to different standards? What's that point for a ballyhooed 2nd overall pick who has had every opportunity in the world in an explosive offense run by a very good coach to suit his multi-dimensional "star" RB's talents?
Is the "some point" less of a factor in dynasty leagues? How much so?
I think Bush is nearing put up or shut up time. He's obviously got the receiving ability in his corner, but the 5.8 yards per reception is truly deflating. It's the
calling card -- his alleged homerun hitting ability -- that has to be the most disconcerting for Bush owners. I've actually been pleasantly surprised by his toughness around the goal-line, but the lack of explosiveness has been the far bigger surprise. Parenthetically, the "eye test" showed me a better NFL back in Ronnie Brown his first two seasons than what I've seen in Reggie Bush.And for all of that, Bush is still ranked 4th in PPR leagues among RBs. Is that a misleading stat though? It's definitely been an outlier type of season for RBs this year. Ronnie Brown is still ranked 9th in many leagues, and he's missed the last 4+ weeks. Running backs are the poo-poo platter this season
. QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 09:11 PM)
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 02:38 AM)
The funny thing about this is that Bush abused Richard Marshall when USC played Fresno in 2005. He made him look silly on multiple plays that can be seen on any of his YouTube highlight reels. If he didn't score then he didn't score. But it wasn't because of Richard Marshall.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
I'm still not buying the third down back talk. Reggie came into the league with higher expectations than any RB in recent memory. He hasn't played especially well, but people would be a lot less critical of him if it weren't for the fact that he was the 2nd overall pick. I still think he has Barber/Westbrook potential. That said, the complete lack of big plays is troubling. We knew he wasn't going to be a pounder between the tackles, but he needs to start breaking some longer runs.
Potential is a four-letter word. Ryan Leaf had worlds of potential. Jeff George's potential was unlimited. At some point, I just don't care what a player's potential is, anymore- I care what his production is.
Now, I think that Bush might one day produce at the level of a Westbrook or a Barber, but we are fast nearing "put up or shut up" time, in my opinion, given how quickly RBs typically develop. Ronnie Brown might have earned him a stay of execution, though- I'm a little bit slower to jump ship on a back after seeing Brown set the world on fire earlier this season after two tremendously disappointing years.
A few thoughts on Bush:
- His performance to date really hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be. His 3.6 YPC is respectable in the context of his team. Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowl caliber back and he only averaged 3.8 YPC behind the same line when he was healthy this season. Plus, YPC averages seem to be down across the league. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch are all under 4.0 YPC this season. And although Bush isn't making big plays in the passing game, he's still one of the top receiving backs in the league.
- The Saints have no scary weapons outside of Colston and Bush, so both players receive more defensive attention than they would if they were on a team like the Bengals or Colts. I'm a big believer that supporting cast has a huge impact on a RB's production. Bush has a good QB, but a below average group of OL and WR. This undoubtedly hurts his production. RBs who can be consistently excellent with a miserable supporting cast are pretty rare.
- As I mentioned before, Bush had the highest expectations of any RB drafted in recent memory. People were going to rip him and call him a bust unless he was anything less than an instant superstar. So I think the negativity is a little bit exaggerated.
Anyhow, I think you have to be somewhat skeptical of him in non-PPR leagues. This year presented him with a pretty nice opportunity to prove himself as a bell cow RB and he really hasn't responded like you would hope. The most disturbing thing for me is the complete lack of big plays. It's puzzling that a guy who regularly broke long touchdowns in college hasn't been able to hit any home runs this season.
I'm still willing to give him a break since his physical skills are off the charts and his pedigree is so exceptional. This is a guy who was rated as the top player in the draft by just about every team in the NFL. NFL teams miss on scouting from time to time, but when they love a RB like they loved Reggie, that RB almost always becomes a very good player. I'm still hopeful that 25 can follow Tiki Barber's career progression and eventually morph into the elite player that people envisioned him becoming. But at this point I recommend cautious optimism until he starts to produce better numbers.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 09:42 PM)
A few thoughts on Bush:
- His performance to date really hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be. His 3.6 YPC is respectable in the context of his team. Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowl caliber back and he only averaged 3.8 YPC behind the same line when he was healthy this season. Plus, YPC averages seem to be down across the league. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch are all under 4.0 YPC this season. And although Bush isn't making big plays in the passing game, he's still one of the top receiving backs in the league.
- The Saints have no scary weapons outside of Colston and Bush, so both players receive more defensive attention than they would if they were on a team like the Bengals or Colts. I'm a big believer that supporting cast has a huge impact on a RB's production. Bush has a good QB, but a below average group of OL and WR. This undoubtedly hurts his production. RBs who can be consistently excellent with a miserable supporting cast are pretty rare.
- As I mentioned before, Bush had the highest expectations of any RB drafted in recent memory. People were going to rip him and call him a bust unless he was anything less than an instant superstar. So I think the negativity is a little bit exaggerated.
Anyhow, I think you have to be somewhat skeptical of him in non-PPR leagues. This year presented him with a pretty nice opportunity to prove himself as a bell cow RB and he really hasn't responded like you would hope. The most disturbing thing for me is the complete lack of big plays. It's puzzling that a guy who regularly broke long touchdowns in college hasn't been able to hit any home runs this season.
I'm still willing to give him a break since his physical skills are off the charts and his pedigree is so exceptional. This is a guy who was rated as the top player in the draft by just about every team in the NFL. NFL teams miss on scouting from time to time, but when they love a RB like they loved Reggie, that RB almost always becomes a very good player. I'm still hopeful that 25 can follow Tiki Barber's career progression and eventually morph into the elite player that people envisioned him becoming. But at this point I recommend cautious optimism until he starts to produce better numbers.
- His performance to date really hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be. His 3.6 YPC is respectable in the context of his team. Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowl caliber back and he only averaged 3.8 YPC behind the same line when he was healthy this season. Plus, YPC averages seem to be down across the league. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch are all under 4.0 YPC this season. And although Bush isn't making big plays in the passing game, he's still one of the top receiving backs in the league.
- The Saints have no scary weapons outside of Colston and Bush, so both players receive more defensive attention than they would if they were on a team like the Bengals or Colts. I'm a big believer that supporting cast has a huge impact on a RB's production. Bush has a good QB, but a below average group of OL and WR. This undoubtedly hurts his production. RBs who can be consistently excellent with a miserable supporting cast are pretty rare.
- As I mentioned before, Bush had the highest expectations of any RB drafted in recent memory. People were going to rip him and call him a bust unless he was anything less than an instant superstar. So I think the negativity is a little bit exaggerated.
Anyhow, I think you have to be somewhat skeptical of him in non-PPR leagues. This year presented him with a pretty nice opportunity to prove himself as a bell cow RB and he really hasn't responded like you would hope. The most disturbing thing for me is the complete lack of big plays. It's puzzling that a guy who regularly broke long touchdowns in college hasn't been able to hit any home runs this season.
I'm still willing to give him a break since his physical skills are off the charts and his pedigree is so exceptional. This is a guy who was rated as the top player in the draft by just about every team in the NFL. NFL teams miss on scouting from time to time, but when they love a RB like they loved Reggie, that RB almost always becomes a very good player. I'm still hopeful that 25 can follow Tiki Barber's career progression and eventually morph into the elite player that people envisioned him becoming. But at this point I recommend cautious optimism until he starts to produce better numbers.
discerning even./snagglepus$
QUOTE (Fear & Loathing @ Nov 27 2007, 09:31 PM)
And for all of that, Bush is still ranked 4th in PPR leagues among RBs. Is that a misleading stat though? It's definitely been an outlier type of season for RBs this year. Ronnie Brown is still ranked 9th in many leagues, and he's missed the last 4+ weeks. Running backs are the poo-poo platter this season .
.I put little stock in a player's fantasy point rankings, and even less stock in their PPR rankings, when it comes to determining production. The problem with PPR leagues is that they reward a reception as a de facto positive play, when it really isn't. Yards and touchdowns can be misleading stats in the context of the game, but at least those are actual legitimate positive statistics. You'll hear coaches talking about outgaining opponents, and you'll hear coaches talk about outscoring opponents, but have you ever heard a coach say "Man, we should have won that game, our team had 19 more receptions than the other guys!"?
Derrick Mason has been a PPR star, on pace for 115 receptions this year, but does anyone think he's having even a GOOD season? He's averaging under 10 yards per reception, and only 6.4 yards per target. Football Outsiders has him ranked as the 62nd best WR in the league (out of 78) on a per-play basis. I understand the logic behind PPR as a means of balancing out the value of various positions, but it really is a horrible method for measuring how much a player is helping his team.
QUOTE (EBF @ Nov 27 2007, 09:42 PM)
A few thoughts on Bush:
- His performance to date really hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be. His 3.6 YPC is respectable in the context of his team. Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowl caliber back and he only averaged 3.8 YPC behind the same line when he was healthy this season. Plus, YPC averages seem to be down across the league. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch are all under 4.0 YPC this season. And although Bush isn't making big plays in the passing game, he's still one of the top receiving backs in the league.
- The Saints have no scary weapons outside of Colston and Bush, so both players receive more defensive attention than they would if they were on a team like the Bengals or Colts. I'm a big believer that supporting cast has a huge impact on a RB's production. Bush has a good QB, but a below average group of OL and WR. This undoubtedly hurts his production. RBs who can be consistently excellent with a miserable supporting cast are pretty rare.
- As I mentioned before, Bush had the highest expectations of any RB drafted in recent memory. People were going to rip him and call him a bust unless he was anything less than an instant superstar. So I think the negativity is a little bit exaggerated.
Anyhow, I think you have to be somewhat skeptical of him in non-PPR leagues. This year presented him with a pretty nice opportunity to prove himself as a bell cow RB and he really hasn't responded like you would hope. The most disturbing thing for me is the complete lack of big plays. It's puzzling that a guy who regularly broke long touchdowns in college hasn't been able to hit any home runs this season.
I'm still willing to give him a break since his physical skills are off the charts and his pedigree is so exceptional. This is a guy who was rated as the top player in the draft by just about every team in the NFL. NFL teams miss on scouting from time to time, but when they love a RB like they loved Reggie, that RB almost always becomes a very good player. I'm still hopeful that 25 can follow Tiki Barber's career progression and eventually morph into the elite player that people envisioned him becoming. But at this point I recommend cautious optimism until he starts to produce better numbers.
- His performance to date really hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be. His 3.6 YPC is respectable in the context of his team. Deuce McAllister is a Pro Bowl caliber back and he only averaged 3.8 YPC behind the same line when he was healthy this season. Plus, YPC averages seem to be down across the league. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch are all under 4.0 YPC this season. And although Bush isn't making big plays in the passing game, he's still one of the top receiving backs in the league.
- The Saints have no scary weapons outside of Colston and Bush, so both players receive more defensive attention than they would if they were on a team like the Bengals or Colts. I'm a big believer that supporting cast has a huge impact on a RB's production. Bush has a good QB, but a below average group of OL and WR. This undoubtedly hurts his production. RBs who can be consistently excellent with a miserable supporting cast are pretty rare.
- As I mentioned before, Bush had the highest expectations of any RB drafted in recent memory. People were going to rip him and call him a bust unless he was anything less than an instant superstar. So I think the negativity is a little bit exaggerated.
Anyhow, I think you have to be somewhat skeptical of him in non-PPR leagues. This year presented him with a pretty nice opportunity to prove himself as a bell cow RB and he really hasn't responded like you would hope. The most disturbing thing for me is the complete lack of big plays. It's puzzling that a guy who regularly broke long touchdowns in college hasn't been able to hit any home runs this season.
I'm still willing to give him a break since his physical skills are off the charts and his pedigree is so exceptional. This is a guy who was rated as the top player in the draft by just about every team in the NFL. NFL teams miss on scouting from time to time, but when they love a RB like they loved Reggie, that RB almost always becomes a very good player. I'm still hopeful that 25 can follow Tiki Barber's career progression and eventually morph into the elite player that people envisioned him becoming. But at this point I recommend cautious optimism until he starts to produce better numbers.
A few more thoughts on Bush:
- Reggie Bush is currently ranked 50th in the league in DVOA rushing (out of 51), and 26th in DVOA receiving (out of 49). That's pretty hard to explain away by his team's struggles- unlike Eli Manning, Reggie Bush actually HAS been stinky, stinky poo.
- You mentioned that you were hopeful that Bush could follow Barber's career progression, but he can't at this point. Barber's career progression was that he played very well, but never got any opportunities as the coaching staff kept ignoring him for the next big thing. When Barber finally got his shot, he ran with it. Reggie Bush is NOT playing well, and he certainly *IS* getting his opportunities. In fact, he's getting his opportunities despite playing very poorly based solely on his draft position. If you want to compare his career arc to this point to a New York runningback, I'm going to say that he's got a lot more in common with Ron Dayne than Tiki Barber. Tiki Barber never had a season with 150+ carries and below a 4.4 ypc. Reggie Bush is now on pace for his second straight season with 150+ carries and a 3.6 ypc.
Now, Reggie Bush might still one day develop into a Tiki Barber type player, but he has absolutely no chance to follow the Tiki Barber career progression. Ditto that for Brian Westbrook, another guy who was awesome in limited action but had the coaching staff keep bringing in someone else to steal his touches. Go back and check the year-by-year DVOA breakdowns of those two players, of Ron Dayne, and of Reggie Bush, and see where you see the most similarities.
- For the record, I'm not saying that Reggie Bush is the next Ron Dayne. I'm only saying that I see striking similarities between their careers to this point.
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 10:44 PM)
- You mentioned that you were hopeful that Bush could follow Barber's career progression, but he can't at this point. Barber's career progression was that he played very well, but never got any opportunities as the coaching staff kept ignoring him for the next big thing. When Barber finally got his shot, he ran with it. Reggie Bush is NOT playing well, and he certainly *IS* getting his opportunities. In fact, he's getting his opportunities despite playing very poorly based solely on his draft position. If you want to compare his career arc to this point to a New York runningback, I'm going to say that he's got a lot more in common with Ron Dayne than Tiki Barber. Tiki Barber never had a season with 150+ carries and below a 4.4 ypc. Reggie Bush is now on pace for his second straight season with 150+ carries and a 3.6 ypc.
Errr, since when did 150 become some magical number that we ignore any season below? Tiki Barber had 136 carries his rookie year while Bush had 144. They averaged 3.8 and 3.6ypc respectively. Year 2, Tiki saw less touches but still only put up a 3.2ypc with them. Please show me where in those two years he "played very well, but never got any opportunities." If you're saying he played very well, then you're also saying Bush played very well because their numbers were very similar.
The problem with Bush is (as people have mentioned) his complete and utter lack of big plays, and long runs in particular. It's odd coming from a guy who's strong suit was supposed to be the big play. I would wager that on the non-big play carries he's doing well as many other good RBs in the league, but the problem is he's not busting any big ones to inflate that average, nor does he really show many signs of any of those coming soon.
As I mentioned even last year when the Saints were rolling, the Saints line S-U-C-K-S. They were able to mask it last year with the gimmicky offense to keep the rush offguard, but that's not there anymore and when the line has to put their hands down, dig in, and do what every other line in the league has to do they have proven to be one of the worst in the league.
Bush doesn't have the power to turn in big plays when there isn't a lot to work with. A guy like AD and some of the other explosive backs in the league are strong enough that not only will an arm tackle not bring them down, but it won't even slow them down. If you look at AD's long runs you'll notice many of them contain plays where he gets hit and not only breaks the tackle, but is hardly slowed down by the hit so someone else can't get over to clean up. Bush needs space to make a move to get the big play. Not every play, just a couple times a game like most teams. With the Saints run blocking, it's more like a couple times a season that the space is there.
QUOTE (FreeBaGeL @ Nov 28 2007, 12:56 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 10:44 PM)
- You mentioned that you were hopeful that Bush could follow Barber's career progression, but he can't at this point. Barber's career progression was that he played very well, but never got any opportunities as the coaching staff kept ignoring him for the next big thing. When Barber finally got his shot, he ran with it. Reggie Bush is NOT playing well, and he certainly *IS* getting his opportunities. In fact, he's getting his opportunities despite playing very poorly based solely on his draft position. If you want to compare his career arc to this point to a New York runningback, I'm going to say that he's got a lot more in common with Ron Dayne than Tiki Barber. Tiki Barber never had a season with 150+ carries and below a 4.4 ypc. Reggie Bush is now on pace for his second straight season with 150+ carries and a 3.6 ypc.
Errr, since when did 150 become some magical number that we ignore any season below? Tiki Barber had 136 carries his rookie year while Bush had 144. They averaged 3.8 and 3.6ypc respectively. Year 2, Tiki saw less touches but still only put up a 3.2ypc with them. Please show me where in those two years he "played very well, but never got any opportunities." If you're saying he played very well, then you're also saying Bush played very well because their numbers were very similar.
The problem with Bush is (as people have mentioned) his complete and utter lack of big plays, and long runs in particular. It's odd coming from a guy who's strong suit was supposed to be the big play. I would wager that on the non-big play carries he's doing well as many other good RBs in the league, but the problem is he's not busting any big ones to inflate that average, nor does he really show many signs of any of those coming soon.
As I mentioned even last year when the Saints were rolling, the Saints line S-U-C-K-S. They were able to mask it last year with the gimmicky offense to keep the rush offguard, but that's not there anymore and when the line has to put their hands down, dig in, and do what every other line in the league has to do they have proven to be one of the worst in the league.
Bush doesn't have the power to turn in big plays when there isn't a lot to work with. A guy like AD and some of the other explosive backs in the league are strong enough that not only will an arm tackle not bring them down, but it won't even slow them down. If you look at AD's long runs you'll notice many of them contain plays where he gets hit and not only breaks the tackle, but is hardly slowed down by the hit so someone else can't get over to clean up. Bush needs space to make a move to get the big play. Not every play, just a couple times a game like most teams. With the Saints run blocking, it's more like a couple times a season that the space is there.
QUOTE (FreeBaGeL @ Nov 28 2007, 01:56 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 10:44 PM)
- You mentioned that you were hopeful that Bush could follow Barber's career progression, but he can't at this point. Barber's career progression was that he played very well, but never got any opportunities as the coaching staff kept ignoring him for the next big thing. When Barber finally got his shot, he ran with it. Reggie Bush is NOT playing well, and he certainly *IS* getting his opportunities. In fact, he's getting his opportunities despite playing very poorly based solely on his draft position. If you want to compare his career arc to this point to a New York runningback, I'm going to say that he's got a lot more in common with Ron Dayne than Tiki Barber. Tiki Barber never had a season with 150+ carries and below a 4.4 ypc. Reggie Bush is now on pace for his second straight season with 150+ carries and a 3.6 ypc.
Errr, since when did 150 become some magical number that we ignore any season below? Tiki Barber had 136 carries his rookie year while Bush had 144. They averaged 3.8 and 3.6ypc respectively. Year 2, Tiki saw less touches but still only put up a 3.2ypc with them. Please show me where in those two years he "played very well, but never got any opportunities." If you're saying he played very well, then you're also saying Bush played very well because their numbers were very similar.
Tiki saw less touches in year 2? I suppose that's putting it mildly. He had 52 carries. I hardly consider that a reasonable sample size to be drawing conclusions from, and even if you do want to draw conclusions, it's hard to say that Reggie Bush, who leads his team in carries, has a career path that is mirroring a guy who had 52 carries in his second season.
Reggie Bush had almost as many touches in his first year (243) as Tiki Barber did in his first two years combined (264). Reggie Bush already has 457 career touches- Tiki Barber didn't get that many until midway through his 4th season, and Bush still has 5 more games to add to his total. And while Tiki's yards per carry dropped in year two (the year of the ridiculously small sample size), his yards per reception remained consistently strong, which means that yes, he was playing better than Reggie Bush at a point in his career where he was a reserve and Bush was the unquestioned starter.
Like I said, I just think Reggie Bush's career to this point far more closely mirrors Ron Dayne's than Tiki Barber's in terms of draft slot, expectations, usage patterns, and early returns. His skillset more closely mirrors Barber's, but his career path more closely mirrors Dayne's. Not that we can draw too much from this, since Bush is obviously not Ron Dayne... it's just important to remember that he's just as obviously not Tiki Barber, and he shares as much in common with each of them. His career could very easily go either way. I feel like some people gloss that over a little bit when they compare Bush to Barber/Westbrook.
Also, I find it interesting that a so-called terrible offensive line with a so-called terrible between-the-tackles RB can rank 5th in the NFL on success rate in obvious rushing situations (3rd/4th down or goal-to-go situations with 2 or fewer yards to go). New Orleans converts 73% of the time in those situations, which means either their line is getting far more push than we're giving them credit for, or else Bush is far better between the tackles than we're giving him credit for.
As I mentioned even last year when the Saints were rolling, the Saints line S-U-C-K-S. They were able to mask it last year with the gimmicky offense to keep the rush offguard, but that's not there anymore and when the line has to put their hands down, dig in, and do what every other line in the league has to do they have proven to be one of the worst in the league.
Don't make this a rational discussion. When someone bases there arguments purely on statistics not allowing for context you can't win.
We have had a relatively mild winter in CO thus far. As with other such years my average drive time to work is quicker than years when it snows more. SSOG would have you believe that road conditions, traffic, accidents all have little to do with drive time just as strength of schedule and overall team performance have to do with an individuals personal statistics. It's not what you see, it's the numbers.
Don't make this a rational discussion. When someone bases there arguments purely on statistics not allowing for context you can't win.
We have had a relatively mild winter in CO thus far. As with other such years my average drive time to work is quicker than years when it snows more. SSOG would have you believe that road conditions, traffic, accidents all have little to do with drive time just as strength of schedule and overall team performance have to do with an individuals personal statistics. It's not what you see, it's the numbers.
QUOTE (FreeBaGeL @ Nov 28 2007, 01:56 AM)
QUOTE (SSOG @ Nov 27 2007, 10:44 PM)
- You mentioned that you were hopeful that Bush could follow Barber's career progression, but he can't at this point. Barber's career progression was that he played very well, but never got any opportunities as the coaching staff kept ignoring him for the next big thing. When Barber finally got his shot, he ran with it. Reggie Bush is NOT playing well, and he certainly *IS* getting his opportunities. In fact, he's getting his opportunities despite playing very poorly based solely on his draft position. If you want to compare his career arc to this point to a New York runningback, I'm going to say that he's got a lot more in common with Ron Dayne than Tiki Barber. Tiki Barber never had a season with 150+ carries and below a 4.4 ypc. Reggie Bush is now on pace for his second straight season with 150+ carries and a 3.6 ypc.
Errr, since when did 150 become some magical number that we ignore any season below? Tiki Barber had 136 carries his rookie year while Bush had 144. They averaged 3.8 and 3.6ypc respectively. Year 2, Tiki saw less touches but still only put up a 3.2ypc with them. Please show me where in those two years he "played very well, but never got any opportunities." If you're saying he played very well, then you're also saying Bush played very well because their numbers were very similar.
The problem with Bush is (as people have mentioned) his complete and utter lack of big plays, and long runs in particular. It's odd coming from a guy who's strong suit was supposed to be the big play. I would wager that on the non-big play carries he's doing well as many other good RBs in the league, but the problem is he's not busting any big ones to inflate that average, nor does he really show many signs of any of those coming soon.
As I mentioned even last year when the Saints were rolling, the Saints line S-U-C-K-S. They were able to mask it last year with the gimmicky offense to keep the rush offguard, but that's not there anymore and when the line has to put their hands down, dig in, and do what every other line in the league has to do they have proven to be one of the worst in the league.
Bush doesn't have the power to turn in big plays when there isn't a lot to work with. A guy like AD and some of the other explosive backs in the league are strong enough that not only will an arm tackle not bring them down, but it won't even slow them down. If you look at AD's long runs you'll notice many of them contain plays where he gets hit and not only breaks the tackle, but is hardly slowed down by the hit so someone else can't get over to clean up. Bush needs space to make a move to get the big play. Not every play, just a couple times a game like most teams. With the Saints run blocking, it's more like a couple times a season that the space is there.
Presumably, though, DVOA is supposed to account for precisely that. If a guy is just missing a few big plays but is otherwise "doing as well as many other good RBs in the league," then DVOA or SR would show that.
I haven't read the whole thread, so this may have been mentioned: Greg Jennings is too low on the list. He should be listed in the top half of the 2nd tier, IMO.
QUOTE (yellowdog @ Nov 28 2007, 02:03 PM)
I haven't read the whole thread, so this may have been mentioned: Greg Jennings is too low on the list. He should be listed in the top half of the 2nd tier, IMO.
Yeah, we covered that one last week. Check page 23, post #1121 & #1125.
I disagreed so strongly with the comment that Jason Campbell was "clearly better" than Eli Manning that I rushed to post, but taking a peek at Campbell's numbers this year, they do look slightly better after Eli threw 4 horrid picks last week (and with his overall numbers squashed by the London Showers game). I owned Campbell as a backup QB this year, and really saw NOTHING week in and week out that would get me excited about him. Eli, on the other hand, is a huge TEASE, as when the Giants offense looks GOOD, they can rack up some numbers in a hurry.
For ME, the Campbell-Eli thing lies mostly on gut feeling. I think Campbell has little upside, while if Manning and the Giants O could ever be CONSISTENTLY good, he'd be an every week starter. I like his chances of developing in that kind of QB more than I like Campbell's numbers improving more than 10% any time soon. But I feel VERY strongly about the relative abilities of these two players.
Even with Manning's picks last week, Campbell fumbles more than any QB in the league AND throws picks with the game on the line. I'd give you Campbell for a used jockstrap if you were in my league. Unfortunately everybody else in my league seems to have the same opinion of him as I do.
I have the same kind of gut feeling about the blasphemous Westbrook-LT comparison. Comparing Westbrook to a guy that gets a MINIMUM of 15+ TD's EVERY year must be coming from somebody that is a SLAVE to yardage numbers, and even there, LT is a yardage beast himself. If Westbrook was as durable as LT, then maybe the comparison would be valid. But for a guy that seems to rarely get even 20 carries in a game, the volume of the numbers that LT puts up still gives him a pretty huge advantage, IMO.
For ME, the Campbell-Eli thing lies mostly on gut feeling. I think Campbell has little upside, while if Manning and the Giants O could ever be CONSISTENTLY good, he'd be an every week starter. I like his chances of developing in that kind of QB more than I like Campbell's numbers improving more than 10% any time soon. But I feel VERY strongly about the relative abilities of these two players.
Even with Manning's picks last week, Campbell fumbles more than any QB in the league AND throws picks with the game on the line. I'd give you Campbell for a used jockstrap if you were in my league. Unfortunately everybody else in my league seems to have the same opinion of him as I do.
I have the same kind of gut feeling about the blasphemous Westbrook-LT comparison. Comparing Westbrook to a guy that gets a MINIMUM of 15+ TD's EVERY year must be coming from somebody that is a SLAVE to yardage numbers, and even there, LT is a yardage beast himself. If Westbrook was as durable as LT, then maybe the comparison would be valid. But for a guy that seems to rarely get even 20 carries in a game, the volume of the numbers that LT puts up still gives him a pretty huge advantage, IMO.
I'd like to raise the issue of Colston being a legit Tier 1 WR.
Currently I think the guy is still undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is really young, Brees loves him and he makes a ton of grabs over the middle of the field which allows him to break tackles and rack some YAC.
Over the last 5 weeks hes at 42/584/4 and has been steller ever since Brees has bounced back from that awful start to the season.
I don't see Colston as a guy who's production will slip, in fact I see him getting better and is definitely a guy I can see approach 90/1300/12.
Top 6 Dynasty receiver.
Currently I think the guy is still undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is really young, Brees loves him and he makes a ton of grabs over the middle of the field which allows him to break tackles and rack some YAC.
Over the last 5 weeks hes at 42/584/4 and has been steller ever since Brees has bounced back from that awful start to the season.
I don't see Colston as a guy who's production will slip, in fact I see him getting better and is definitely a guy I can see approach 90/1300/12.
Top 6 Dynasty receiver.
QUOTE (Cowboys#1 @ Nov 28 2007, 11:07 PM)
I'd like to raise the issue of Colston being a legit Tier 1 WR.
Currently I think the guy is still undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is really young, Brees loves him and he makes a ton of grabs over the middle of the field which allows him to break tackles and rack some YAC.
Over the last 5 weeks hes at 42/584/4 and has been steller ever since Brees has bounced back from that awful start to the season.
I don't see Colston as a guy who's production will slip, in fact I see him getting better and is definitely a guy I can see approach 90/1300/12.
Top 6 Dynasty receiver.
Currently I think the guy is still undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is really young, Brees loves him and he makes a ton of grabs over the middle of the field which allows him to break tackles and rack some YAC.
Over the last 5 weeks hes at 42/584/4 and has been steller ever since Brees has bounced back from that awful start to the season.
I don't see Colston as a guy who's production will slip, in fact I see him getting better and is definitely a guy I can see approach 90/1300/12.
Top 6 Dynasty receiver.
Good timing. I was moving him above Torry Holt to the top of the 2nd tier while you were posting this. I'm not so sure about Colston versus the elite WRs. I don't think I'd trade anybody in Tier One for him. There's something about him that just seems a little less stable than the guys in Tier One. Maybe gianmarco or some of the other Saints "correspondents" could try to drop some unbiased first-hand knowledge on us about Colston and his future among the truly elite WRs.
Please forgive this aside because it's certainly not meant to be a venomous screed against anybody in particular.
Has anybody else noticed that nothing emboldens an owner quite like a hot streak by one of "his guys"? SSOG can speak to this statement better than I can because he's more conversant with metrics, but there's a reason why analysts don't take a player's evaluation seriously when he's coming off his best game of the season. The player is not going to stay at that superlative level every week, so the stats are skewed after an unusually big game. Without trying to single out any specific posters, let's just take a sampling of some recent debates:
I had Jason Campbell as low as 7 value points -- down with Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman -- a few weeks ago while he wasn't looking so hot. Did we hear from anybody who had faith in him at the time? Nope. Was anybody so sold on Campbell's ability that they were willing to stick up for him while he was on a cold streak? Did anybody show anticipation and challenge the ranking before he reeled off a few good games?
Greg Jennings is 20 catches and 200 yards behind Donald Driver, but he has a huge edge in TDs at this stage of the season. I don't remember too many guys pimping him two months ago when he was coming off an injury and about 40 points lower in the rankings -- down in Ronald Curry territory. Where were the Jennings believers when he was injury-prone and struggling to get his job back from James Jones?
Where was the Westbrook over Tomlinson love back when Westbrook was watching from sidelines for the Eagles' Week Four game? Where was the Marques Colston stud talk when the Saints started the season at the bottom of the league in scoring?
The lowest I've ranked Joseph Addai was the week he shared carries with Kenton Keith. I lowered him to 75 points and dropped him to ~10th amongst RBs that week, and I didn't hear a peep from the Addai camp until reeled off a couple good games thereafter.
Where are the "Eli is a Top 10 Franchise QB" backers this week? Where was the love for Philip Rivers a couple of weeks ago? Why did nobody scold me for dropping Frank Gore a couple of weeks ago? Ditto on Larry Fitzgerald when I dropped him for a week or two coming off a disappointing start. Where were the Ronnie Brown faithful back in Week 2? Why won't anybody volunteer that Vince Young is too low right now? Laurence Maroney? Lee Evans? Stick to your guns. Have faith in your evaluations.
I realize, in a way, it's only human nature. We wonder who is going to take us seriously if we argue that a guy in the crapper is worth more than a guy playing over his ahead. You're running the risk of putting yourself out there to be mocked by the rest of the board. I understand that. And yet -- this may seem counterintuitive -- I have a lot more respect for someone who anticipates a return to full value while "his guys" are slumping. Better yet, it's the one anticipating a player jumping to the next level in-season who is showing off some real fantasy football enlightenment. I appreciate a guy like EBF for throwing in a Mark Clayton or Reggie Williams while they're down. Is he going to be right most of the time? Maybe, maybe not. But he's better than most at evaluating fantasy football talent, and he's at least trying to stay ahead of the curve rather than chasing points. That's where the real acumen lies.
/offsoapbox
Has anybody else noticed that nothing emboldens an owner quite like a hot streak by one of "his guys"? SSOG can speak to this statement better than I can because he's more conversant with metrics, but there's a reason why analysts don't take a player's evaluation seriously when he's coming off his best game of the season. The player is not going to stay at that superlative level every week, so the stats are skewed after an unusually big game. Without trying to single out any specific posters, let's just take a sampling of some recent debates:
I had Jason Campbell as low as 7 value points -- down with Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman -- a few weeks ago while he wasn't looking so hot. Did we hear from anybody who had faith in him at the time? Nope. Was anybody so sold on Campbell's ability that they were willing to stick up for him while he was on a cold streak? Did anybody show anticipation and challenge the ranking before he reeled off a few good games?
Greg Jennings is 20 catches and 200 yards behind Donald Driver, but he has a huge edge in TDs at this stage of the season. I don't remember too many guys pimping him two months ago when he was coming off an injury and about 40 points lower in the rankings -- down in Ronald Curry territory. Where were the Jennings believers when he was injury-prone and struggling to get his job back from James Jones?
Where was the Westbrook over Tomlinson love back when Westbrook was watching from sidelines for the Eagles' Week Four game? Where was the Marques Colston stud talk when the Saints started the season at the bottom of the league in scoring?
The lowest I've ranked Joseph Addai was the week he shared carries with Kenton Keith. I lowered him to 75 points and dropped him to ~10th amongst RBs that week, and I didn't hear a peep from the Addai camp until reeled off a couple good games thereafter.
Where are the "Eli is a Top 10 Franchise QB" backers this week? Where was the love for Philip Rivers a couple of weeks ago? Why did nobody scold me for dropping Frank Gore a couple of weeks ago? Ditto on Larry Fitzgerald when I dropped him for a week or two coming off a disappointing start. Where were the Ronnie Brown faithful back in Week 2? Why won't anybody volunteer that Vince Young is too low right now? Laurence Maroney? Lee Evans? Stick to your guns. Have faith in your evaluations.
I realize, in a way, it's only human nature. We wonder who is going to take us seriously if we argue that a guy in the crapper is worth more than a guy playing over his ahead. You're running the risk of putting yourself out there to be mocked by the rest of the board. I understand that. And yet -- this may seem counterintuitive -- I have a lot more respect for someone who anticipates a return to full value while "his guys" are slumping. Better yet, it's the one anticipating a player jumping to the next level in-season who is showing off some real fantasy football enlightenment. I appreciate a guy like EBF for throwing in a Mark Clayton or Reggie Williams while they're down. Is he going to be right most of the time? Maybe, maybe not. But he's better than most at evaluating fantasy football talent, and he's at least trying to stay ahead of the curve rather than chasing points. That's where the real acumen lies.
/offsoapbox
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