Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Wide Receiver Rankings | October 22, 2008

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIER ONE

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99

2. Andre Johnson, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 98
Weekly over-reactions are fun, aren't they? Johnson is back to being a reliable No. 1 WR for seasons to come.

3. Calvin Johnson, DET | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 97

4. Steve Smith, CAR | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 96

5. Reggie Wayne
, IND | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 96

6. Brandon Marshall, DEN | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 95

7. Greg Jennings, GB | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 94
Leading the NFL in several receiving categories, Jennings is a true No. 1?

8. Randy Moss, NE | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 93
Value would take a huge hit if Brady's second surgery keeps him out into the 2009 season.

9. Marques Colston, NO | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 92
When can we start asking if Colston is injury-prone? He certainly doesn't leave me with a warm and safe feeling .

TIER TWO

10. Braylon Edwards, CLE | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 86
Flashed that big play ability against the Giants. Personally, I'd sell now for a more reliable stud if possible.

11. #Anquan Boldin, ARI | Age: 27.9 | Value Score: 85

12. Roddy White, ATL | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 84
Offseason concerns about the deleterious effects of a rookie quarterback were overblown. I'm guilty as charged.

13. Dwayne Bowe, KC | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 84

14. Terrell Owens, DAL | Age: 34.8 | Value Score: 84

15. Santonio Holmes, PIT | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 83

16. Lee Evans, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 83
Double teamed on nearly every passing play and still fifth in the league in receiving yards. The newly signed top-five contract shows his true value as an elite wide receiving talent. A Top-15 talent at WR, he and Trent Edwards have a bright future together.

17. Roy Williams, DAL | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 82
I grew up in Cincinnati and went through the 1990s there, so I'm enlightened to a golden rule about football: never underestimate the power of an historically inept franchise to suck the will to live out of a talented and competitive player. I saw it with many Bengals, personified by Corey Dillon who went on to have a career year with the Patriots. We all saw it with Randy Moss upon escaping Oakland. Both players, like Roy Williams, developed reputations for questionable attitudes -- and those reputations may have been well earned. But both players were choir boys once they escaped football hades, and it shouldn't be a surprise when Roy Williams makes the same conversion.

In the third game of Roy Williams career, he put up 9 catches for 135 yards and two touchdowns (causing my ever-excitable friend Al to run out and trade half of his redraft roster to acquire the hot rookie). Two years later, Williams put up a season of 82 catches for 1,310 yards and 7 touchdowns -- playing for the Lions. He has prototypical size, speed, and athleticism. This is a wide receiver with Top-10 ability who was wasted in Detroit. Now, much like Randy Moss last season, he goes from the outhouse to the penthouse. It's the best case scenario.


18. #Plaxico Burress, NYG | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 79
The return of the "High Knucklehead Factor." Plax is simply not reliable.

TIER THREE

19. Santana Moss, WAS | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 72
He'll bounce back, but would-be WR1s don't pull a disappearing act for two straight games.

20. DeSean Jackson, PHI | Age: 21.8 | Value Score: 70

21. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 70

22. Chad Ocho Cinco, CIN | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 69
He's passed the buy-low window and entered legitimate concern territory. He and Palmer haven't been on the same page, and the Bengals franchise is going down the toilet again.

23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN | Age: 30.9 | Value Score: 69
A lost season for the Bengals. Might be time to hope he leaves Cincy after the 2008 season.

24. Vincent Jackson, SD | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 68
Much more valuable in Dynasty than redraft, V-Jax just keeps improving every year. The sky is the limit with an improved QB getting him more and more involved in the offense.

25. Eddie Royal, DEN | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 67

26. Hines Ward, PIT | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 66

27. Wes Welker, NE | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 65
Still valuable in PPR leagues, but he can't get in the end zone with Cassel under center.

28. Torry Holt, STL | Age: 32.3 | Value Score: 65
Being outshined by rookie Donnie Avery.

29. Laveranues Coles, NYJ | Age: 30.7 | Value Score: 62
Should remain heavily targeted as long as Brett Favre is around.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, IND | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 58

31. Marvin Harrison, IND | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 58

32. Bernard Berrian, MIN | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 56
Three straight games with a TD and hasn't been held under 75 yards since Gus Frerotte took over the passing offense.

33. #Chris Chambers, SD | Age: 30.1 | Value Score: 54

TIER FOUR

34. #Sidney Rice, MIN | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 42

35. Kevin Curtis, PHI | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 41

36. Josh Morgan, SF | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 40
Finally back in the starting lineup after a dominant preseason, the rookie is the 49ers' best playmaker at WR.

37. Donnie Avery, STL | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 39
Avery may have been overdrafted as the first wideout off the board, but he's a keeper. Look for him to become a bigger part of the offense moving forward.

38. Donald Driver, GB | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 38
It doesn't pay to be Favre's go-to guy when Favre is no longer around; heading into his mid-thirties, Driver may be entering his last startable season.

39. Devin Thomas, WAS | Age: 21.8 | Value Score: 37

40. James Hardy, BUF | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 36

41. Matt Jones, JAX | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 36
Not only has he emerged as David Garrard's go-to guy in the Jags offense, he's played so well that they can't afford to take him out of the lineup.

42. #Mike Walker, JAX | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 35
The reported sprained MCL is a bit of a hangover from Walker's coming out party on national television Sunday night. You may have to wait a few weeks, but Walker has turned the corner and earned his quarterback's trust.

43. Antonio Bryant, TB | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 33
Coach Gruden informed Joey Galloway that Bryant is keeping the fantasy friendly starting split end job.

44. Robert Meachem, NO | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 30

45. #James Jones, GB | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 30

46. Jordy Nelson, GB | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 29

47. Ted Ginn Jr., MIA | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 28

TIER FIVE

48. Laurent Robinson, ATL | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 21

49. Limas Sweed, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 21

50. #Devin Hester, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 20
The talent was always there, and now it appears that he's taken the step to legit wide receiver. He's gone from stash-and-hope to actual weekly production.

51. Derrick Mason, BAL | Age: 34.6 | Value Score: 20

52. Lance Moore, NO | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 20
The gravy train is over with Moore moving to the slot upon Marques Colston's return.

53. #Deion Branch, SEA | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 19
The most over-rated fantasy receiver of recent memory suffered yet another injury in his first game back. He can't stay healthy, doesn't get in the end zone, and has never broken 1,000 yards in a season.

54. #Reggie Brown, PHI | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 19

55. Steve Breaston, ARI | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 18
Worst case scenario: he stays involved as the No. 3 receiver for the next two years. Best case scenario: he steps in for Anquan Boldin in the near future as the wide receiver feasting off of Fitz's production.

56. Chris Henry, CIN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 18

57. Steve Smith, NYG | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 17

58. Javon Walker, OAK | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 16
Swampland in Florida.

59. Harry Douglas, ATL | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 15

60. Jerry Porter, JAX | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 14
Raise your hand if you fell for the hype. Now slap yourself.

61. Mark Clayton, BAL | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 13
It's time to call a flop a flop. Clayton is a wide receiver that never gets in the end zone and averages less than 10 yards per catch. It's time to turn the page.

62. Donte' Stallworth, CLE | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 13

63. #Malcolm Kelly, WAS | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 12

64. Kevin Walter, HOU | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 12
Sketchy long-term value, but he could be a borderline WR3 the rest of this season.

65. Bobby Engram, SEA | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 11
With the clock ticking on his career, Engram must be an advantage in 2008 to have Dynasty value. It's not looking good.

66. [#]Nate Burleson, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 11

67. #Joey Galloway, TB | Age: 36.8 | Value Score: 10
Similar to Engram, Galloway must be a startable asset to maintain Dynasty value. Losing his position to Antonio Bryant isn't going to help.

68. Isaac Bruce, SF | Age: 35.8 | Value Score: 10

69. #Justin Gage, TEN | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 10

TIER SIX

70. Early Doucet, ARI | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 8

71. #Craig Davis, SD | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 8

72. Domenik Hixon, NYG | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 7
Built on an impressive preseason with a breakout game starting in Plax's place.

73. #Brandon Stokley, DEN | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 7

74. Jacoby Jones, HOU | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 7

75. Demetrius Williams, BAL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 7

76. Devery Henderson, NO | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 7

77. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR | Age: 35.4 | Value Score: 7

78. Jerome Simpson, CIN | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 5

79. Jason Hill, SF | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 5

80. Mario Manningham, NYG | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 5

TIER SEVEN

81. Greg Camarillo, MIA | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 4

82. Antwaan Randle El, WAS | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 4

83. #D.J. Hackett, CAR | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 4
Long a stat-head darling, but there was a reason Hackett drew so little interest on the free agent market this past offseason: he can't stay healthy. Local beats believe Dwayne Jarrett will take his job soon.

84. Reggie Williams, JAX | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 4

85. Chaz Schilens, OAK | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 4

86. Arnaz Battle, SF | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 4

87. Amani Toomer, NYG | Age: 34.0 | Value Score: 4

88. Bryant Johnson, SF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 4
Remaindered by the rookie.

89. Patrick Crayton, DAL | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 4
And just like that, he's fallen off the face of the earth.

90. Ronald Curry, OAK | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 4

91. #Brandon Lloyd, CHI | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 4

92. Darrell Jackson, DEN | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 4

93. Will Franklin, KC | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 4

94. Lavelle Hawkins, TEN | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 4

95. Drew Bennett, STL | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 4

96. Dwayne Jarrett, CAR | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 4

97. Isaiah Stanback, DAL | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 3

98. Miles Austin, DAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 3

99. #Andre Caldwell, CIN | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 3

100. Derek Hagan, MIA | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 3

101. Earl Bennett, CHI | Age: 21.5 | Value Score: 3

102. Hank Baskett, PHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 2

103. Brandon Jones, TEN | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 2

104. Keenan Burton, STL | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 2

105. Mike Furrey, DET | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 2

106. Shaun McDonald, DET | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 2

107. Steve Johnson, BUF | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 2

2 comments:

EdMcGon said...

Chris,
Keeper question for you: i have the following receivers: T.J. Housh, Steve Smith(CAR), Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Josh Morgan, and Robert Meachem.

My season is shot (1-6 record). Should I trade T.J. for whatever I can get for him? Or wait and see where he lands next year?

I figure I have enough young talent, plus I can always draft another WR. T.J. is not getting any younger, and there's no telling what kind of situation he could end up in, or even if he'll do any good at it (he's never been proven as a #1 receiver).

Chris Wesseling said...

Is this Dynasty, or just several player keeper league?

I think in Dynasty, I'd hold on if it meant just dealing him for "whatever you can get for him." No use just bailing on him.

If you're only keep 2 WRs though, I'd just assume keep V-Jax probably.