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This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

I'll Tumble for You | Week 7

Early look at Dynasty players losing value:

QUARTERBACKS
Matt Hasselbeck
Carson Palmer
J.T. O'Sullivan
Joe Flacco
JaMarcus Russell
Jon Kitna

RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai
Julius Jones
Ryan Grant
Earnest Graham
Fred Taylor
Edgerrin James
Selvin Young?
Jonathan Stewart?
Andre Hall

WIDE RECEIVERS
Chad Ocho Cinco
Antonio Bryant
Jerry Porter
Roy Williams
Santana Moss?
Ted Ginn Jr.
Buster Davis

TIGHT ENDS
Donald Lee?
Anthony Fasano?

KICKERS

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I disagree with Addai losing value, if anything his value could go up as it looks like the Colts offense is back to normal, Dungy thinks Addai should be good to go this week and he'll likely see more room to run than he has seen all season from here on in.

Chris Wesseling said...

I couldn't disagree more.

First, I haven't seen anywhere that Dungy said Addai should be good to go this week. I have seen this from the Indy Star:

"Starter Joseph Addai also was knocked out of the game, with an injured hamstring in the first quarter. His longterm prognosis is thought to be far less serious than Hart’s, though Dungy said he didn’t have any further information yet."

I've also seen a Rotoworld blurb where Dungy said he thought Addai would be "OK" but added nothing about this week's game. Still, a running back with a hamstring injury? No thanks. More importantly, a RB with a hamstring injury where his backup can come in and play just as well as he can? Double no thanks.

I've consistently ranked Addai lower than anyone else doing Dynasty/Keeper rankings, and that's the crux of the problem. Addai gets a boost in Dynasty value because he plays for the Colts. He also loses long-term stability because his backups have proven they can step right in and perform as well -- or even better -- than him when he's out with an injury. He's not a unique talent, and the Colts offense doesn't rely on any unique "Addai-ness" that he brings to the table. He's not special.

To make matters worse, Addai has been awful since the second half of last season -- to the tune of just over 3.0 yards per carry. Rhodes may have ended up with pedestrian numbers as well, but it's worth considering that it was against the best rushing defense in football . . . and by all accounts from game watchers, Rhodes looked very impressive yesterday.

Did Rhodes impress his coaches enough to receive a bigger slice of the pie the rest of the way? I don't know, but it's not like Addai was seen as a 300+ carry workhorse anyway, so I'd be worried if I was an Addai owner. I could definitely see the Colts taking it easy with Addai's workload the rest of the way.

sterjs said...

Time to move Roy Williams to the risers list IMO.