Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Quarterback Rankings | October 15, 2008

QUARTERBACKS

TIER ONE

1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 99
Remains King of the Hill.

2. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 98
The leap has been made.

3. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 97
Currently the best quarterback in the NFL.

4. #Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 97
Maybe some short-term misery with the broken pinkie, but the Roy Williams trade will make it all worthwhile in the long run. Romo now has the best tight end in the league, two Top-20 wide receivers, and a dominant rushing game. He's set up for major success the next five seasons.

5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 94
Stud.

TIER TWO

6. [#]Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 88
You can't use him for a full season, and there's legit concern that it may take him until 2010 to get back to dominant form. Of course, it's entirely possible he throws for 30+ TDs again in '09. How much are the next 16 weeks worth to you?

7. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 85
Still elite.

8. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 82
He just keeps impressing more and more each week. May be injury prone, but you can take "soft" off the list of concerns for Favre's replacement. Rodgers has played in considerable pain and is still coming through with fantastic numbers.

9. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 80
It's unheard of to be playing the best football of your career fresh off of ACL surgery. Kudos to Rivers and his offseason backers.

TIER THREE

10. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 71
Oooof. Bad Eli showed up again.

11. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 70
A top tier QB for as long as he starts in Arizona.

12. #Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 69
Not getting a good feeling about that elbow injury. "Since Mike Brown took control of the franchise following his father's death in 1991, the Bengals have opened the season five times with an 0-7 mark. No other NFL team has done it more than twice. Losing seven games in a row isn't unusual at all for the Bengals. They've done it eight times in the 18 years that Brown has run the operation, a mind-boggling run of bad football in a league ruled by parity. "

13. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 68
Had already established himself as a rookie Franchise QB, but now we're talking possible stud in the making. Builders will obviously prefer Ryan to Warner, but I'm a contender and there's no way I trade Warner for Ryan.

14. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 64
Just short of a Franchise QB while continually looking over his shoulder at Sage Rosefels, but continued heroics will help solidify value.

15. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 60
Starting to show 2007 form, making plays with his arm and his legs.

16. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 54
Can he stay healthy? Edwards was injured every season at Stanford (granted, behind a woeful O-Line) plus last year's wrist injury. He doesn't deserve a huge downgrade by any means, but it's at least worth adding to his dossier.

17. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 50
The dramatic inconsistency continues . . .

TIER FOUR

18. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 40
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

19. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 38
Dead Man Walking just punched the Grim Reaper in the kidney.

20. Brett Favre, NYJ | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 36
Jay Glazier reports Favre to the Jets for a conditional pick. That's gotta be a two-year commitment for Favre, right? He could still climb a bit once details start to roll in.

21. #Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 35
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

22. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 34
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

23. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 33
Still at the helm of a poor offense, but at least he has the support of his new coach. Don't rule out the Rams getting frisky on offense in the second half.

24. Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 32

TIER FIVE

25. Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 24
Expectations are tempered due to rumors of a slow adjustment to the pro game plus the fact that he is, after all, a Detroit Lion. He does have intriguing athleticism, a strong arm, and a dominant talent at wide receiver. Let's see what he does with his opportunity – it's coming soon.

26. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 24
He'll get another chance to start for the Cardinals, but when will it happen?

27. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 23

28. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 22
One step forward, three giant steps back.

29. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 20
Will take over for Pennington at some point this season.

30. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 18
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

TIER SIX

31. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 11
A patented post-Lions point-fest opportunity for owners to shine him up and deal him away for an upgrade. Orton was undoubtedly the right choice over Grossman for the Bears, but he's not nearly as good as his recent numbers might indicate.

32. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 10
Should be getting better, not worse.

33. [#]Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 7
Big trouble soon come.

34. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 7
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

35. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7

36. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 7

37. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 5
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.

38. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 4

39. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 4

40. Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 4
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

41. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 4

42. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 4
Free agent after 2008 season.

TIER SEVEN

43. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 3

44. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 3

45. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 3

46. Byron Leftwich, PIT | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
When asked why he thought Leftwich was out of football, Tomlin said, “Your guess is as good as mine, based on what I saw today.”

47. #Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 3
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

48. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 3

49. Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he keeps starting.

50. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 3

TIER NINE

51. Brad Johnson, DAL | Age: 40.0 | Value Score: 2

52. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 2
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

53. Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 2
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

54. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
Likely to drop even further . . . the initial reaction is: why carry him ?

55. *Michael Vick, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

56. #Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 2
Awful preseason lowers expectations about taking over for Delhomme anytime soon.

57. Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 2

58. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2

59. #Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 2
Not long for the starting job.

60. Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 2
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

61. [#]Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2

62. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

63. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2

TIER TEN

64. Brett Ratliff, NYJ | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1

65. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1

66. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

67. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

68. Chris Simms, TEN | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 1

69. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 1

70. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1

71. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

72. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

73. Josh McCown, CAR | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

74. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

75. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1

76. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

77. David Carr, NYG | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

78. Joey Harrington, NO | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

79. [#]Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1

80. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1
Polish up that resume for the Iowa Barnstormers

14 comments:

Eli Manning said...

A guy once told me not to get caught up on the week-to-week drama of the NFL...who was that????

Chris Wesseling said...

Has my chance on Eli Manning changed?

I still don't believe in him as a QB1.

Unlike the mainstream media, I did not believe Eli had surpassed Peyton as a QB just because he had a couple of good games to close out '06 and opened '07 without embarrassing himself. I mean, come on, these guys get paid to say Eli is better than Peyton. Preposterous.

Chris Wesseling said...

"stance" not chance

jmc said...

I don't see that huge a difference between Warner and Favre at this point. Both are mistake-prone QBs that may or may not be starting for an NFL team this time next year. But they can both almost single-handedly win you a game in a given week. Warner has better WRs, but Favre is not nearly the injury risk.

What is it that has you ranking Warner so much higher than Favre?

Chris Wesseling said...

jmc,
Kurt Warner is a no-doubt starter every week . . . and an advantage most weeks. Brett Favre is more of a spot-starter to me b/c I don't think he gives you an advantage most weeks. I think he's more hit-or-miss.

Warner is more consistently productive . . . and that's without Boldin for 2 games.

The health issue is a good one, but I've never really held healthy borderline starters in high regard. Do you care if Jason Campbell stays healthy? It wouldn't be a big concern to me b/c I don't need to count on him weekly. If I thought Favre was an every week stud, his sure health would be a major factor . . . but I don't see him as the every week stud that I see Warner as.

You're right that they both have iffy futures. I feel better about Warner's.

Chris Wesseling said...

Kurt Warner's last 16 games:

4,515 passing yards + 35 TDs

That's a stud QB right there.

Eli Manning said...

The problem is you haven't changed your stance. I got a bogus offseason blurb that was negative, then when I was playing well I got no blurb at all, and the first bad game I have I get a negative blurb again.

I am confused, if there are generally 12 teams in a fantasy league and I am ranked 10th...why wouldn't I be considered a QB1?

Hater!!!!!!

Chris Wesseling said...

Eli --

As usual, you seem awfully unsure of yourself. If you were a good quarterback, surely have more defensive pressure to evade than some hack blogger.

Nobody feels comfortable starting you every week. Blame it on me if I'm the easy target. . . .

But guys like Warren Sapp who want to annoint you a better QB than your brother after a decent game or two are the problem, not me. . .

Hey D -- what are your rankings?

1. Eli
2. Peyton
3. Billy Crystal
4. Gene Wilder
5. Jimmi Hendrix

6. Jay Cutler
7. Drew Brees
8. William Henry Harrison
9. Tippecanoe & Tyler Too
10. Bob Knight
11. Keith Smart
12. Eli -- on a good week
13. Vince young

EdMcGon said...

Chris,
I know I was high on Jay cutler earlier this season (and I still am), but I have to give Drew Brees his kudos.

Brees is having the best season of any NFL QB. Why shouldn't he be number 1? He's three years younger than Peyton Manning, and Brees has a better offense around him. An offense I'd add which is also younger, meaning Brees has several top years left in him.

Think about it: If someone offered you Manning straight up for Brees right now, would you take it? I wouldn't.

Chris Wesseling said...

Eli: My definition of a QB1 is a quarterback that I would feel comfortable running out there every week in fantasy football and never having to think twice about replacing him with someone else. A QB1 is a weekly advantage over the other owners in the league.

You, however, shouldn't make anyone feel comfortable with your career 55% completion percentage. So you went through a hot streak last season? Big deal. You've always been a streaky QB. Need we remind of you of your patented second half swoons before you finally hit a hot streak in last year's playoffs?

I'll tell you what, Eli. I haven't changed my stance on Rex Grossman, A-Rod, Kobe Bryant, Bengals owner Mike Brown, George W. Bush, Dominoes Pizza, Bob Saget's "comedy," Joe Buck's announcing, and fundamentalist religious freaks.

If any of them ever give me a good reason to change my stance, I'll take it under consideration. Just because you've fooled a couple of front-running talking heads, it doesn't mean that you're suddenly a stud QB.

I don't know how you can look Justin Tuck in the face every day at practice knowing that you've got his Super Bowl MVP trophy sitting on your mantle.

Chris Wesseling said...

Ed,
Yes. I would take Peyton for Brees straight up. Why so quick to get caught up in weekly changes?

First Cutler, now Brees. You're in quite the hurry to bury Peyton Manning just because he got off to a slow start with a bum knee, an injury-ravaged O-Line, and a still recovering Marvin Harrison.

Eli a couple of posts up can tell you I've never been Peyton Manning booster, but he's earned his spot at the top with his consistent Top-5 finishes. I think he's still more of a lead-pipe lock than any QB in the league, and I expect him to play like Peyton Manning the rest of the way.

Drew Brees is playing better than any QB in the league, but I still wonder if he will ever throw for 30+ TDs in a season.

EdMcGon said...

You're in quite the hurry to bury Peyton Manning just because he got off to a slow start with a bum knee, an injury-ravaged O-Line, and a still recovering Marvin Harrison.

Chris,
That's an awful LOT of excuses for one player, especially one who is supposedly the best QB in the game? ;)

Chris Wesseling said...

Ed,
Are those excuses or facts? Sure seem like facts to me.

What are the excuses for Drew Brees yesterday?

jmc said...

Chris said:

Kurt Warner's last 16 games:

4,515 passing yards + 35 TDs

That's a stud QB right there.
-----

Thanks for responding, Chris. Those are indeed manly numbers. I'd invest in a darn good backup if Warner was my starter. Right now I'm starting Favre with Edwards backing him up. Methinks that's about to change...