Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Quarterback Rankings | October 8, 2008

QUARTERBACKS

TIER ONE

1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 99
With Clark re-signed and Gonzalez ready to step up if Marvin doesn't snap back, Manning's consistency trumps Brady's career year.

2. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 98
The leap has been made.

3. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 97
Should be good for a consistent 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs every year for the next few years; Shockey addition adds a nice red zone weapon and improves the overall explosiveness of the offense.

4. #Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 95
T.O.'s contract extension steadies value and maintains 30 TD expectations.

5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 94
Taking too many hits. . .

TIER TWO

6. [#]Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 87
You can't use him for a full season, and there's legit concern that it may take him until 2010 to get back to dominant form. Of course, it's entirely possible he throws for 30+ TDs again in '09. How much are the next 16 weeks worth to you?

7. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 85
I've seen guys like Eli Manning & Phil Rivers ranked ahead of him, in which case McNabb is the ideal buy low candidate for dynasty leaguers.

8. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 80
Favre's trade leaves Rodgers as the unquestioned starter, but that's going to be some spotlight he's occupying.

9. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 79
It's unheard of to be playing the best football of your career fresh off of ACL surgery. Kudos to Rivers and his offseason backers.

10. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 77

11. #Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 72
Not getting a good feeling about that elbow injury.

12. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 70
A top tier QB for as long as he starts in Arizona.

TIER THREE

13. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 60
A much better QB than commonly believed, but he's not likely to surpass last year's passing quality. If the running game slips from true dominance, does Garrard's production see an uptick from the increased attempts or do the passing lanes start to close with the defense no longer selling out against the run?

14. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 59
He's going to have to stay healthy for all 16 games to shake the injury concerns, but there's a lot to like here. The YPA & completion percentage were very promising, so he just needs to find Johnson & Daniels in the end zone more often to take the next step to reliable #1 as opposed to an aspiring Bulger.

15. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 52
Early signing could be an indication the team wants him to start early in the season, but he'll be doing it behind a woeful offensive line.

16. #Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 50
Positive marks for poise, smarts, and an ability to lead an offense, but he needs to take a major step forward in playmaking and consistency; addition of rookie Hardy should help put the ball in the end zone more often.

17. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 49
It would be foolish not to count on an adjustment period to the West Coast Offense and a new coaching staff; I think we've all seen him look very poised at times and extremely underwhelming at other times, so it will be interesting to watch his growth throughout '08. Remember the Losman/Grossman Effect: young QBs don't always get better.

18. #Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 48
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

19. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 47
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

TIER FOUR

20. Brett Favre, NYJ | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 36
Jay Glazier reports Favre to the Jets for a conditional pick. That's gotta be a two-year commitment for Favre, right? He could still climb a bit once details start to roll in.

21. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 34
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

22. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 32
Very likely to get his job back again at some point in '08.

23. #Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 31

24. Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 30
Jon Kitna will be on a much shorter leash, so expect Stanton to get a chance at some point in '08; if Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams remain in DET, Stanton makes for a very intriguing high upside pet project.

TIER FIVE

25. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 23

26. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 23
Top of the line arm, perfect size, prodigious talent, but the footwork was an absolute mess and questions persist about his decision making; his career could go either way, and unfortunately, Oakland isn't exactly the ideal proving ground for a developing QB right now.

27. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 21
He'll get another chance to start for the Cardinals, but when will it happen?

28. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 20
Dead man walking, but where does he end up in '09?

29. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 19
Will take over for Pennington at some point this season.

30. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 18
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

TIER SIX

31. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 11
A legit chance to line up behind center in Week 1? The competition has been less than impressive. On the other hand, even with the starting job in a Martz offense, his crappy play will likely have the team looking for alternatives sooner rather than later.

32. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 10
Plucky. That's it. That's the list. OK, neckbeard. That's on the list too. Woe are the Bears.

33. #Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 8
Big trouble soon come.

34. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 7
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

35. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7

36. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 7

37. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 5
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.

38. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 4

39. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 4

40. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 4
Free agent after 2008 season.

TIER SEVEN

41. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 3

42. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 3

43. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 3

44. Byron Leftwich, PIT | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
When asked why he thought Leftwich was out of football, Tomlin said, “Your guess is as good as mine, based on what I saw today.”

45. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 3

46. Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 3
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

47. #Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 3
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

48. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 3

49. Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he keeps starting.

TIER NINE

50. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 2
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

51. Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 2
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

52. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
Likely to drop even further . . . the initial reaction is: why carry him ?

53. *Michael Vick, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

54. #Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 2
Awful preseason lowers expectations about taking over for Delhomme anytime soon.

55. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 2

56. #Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 2
Not long for the starting job.

57. Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 2
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

58. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2

59. [#]Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2

60. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

61. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2

TIER TEN

62. Brett Ratliff, NYJ | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1

63. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1

64. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

65. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

66. Chris Simms, TEN | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 1

67. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 1

68. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1

69. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

70. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

71. Josh McCown, CAR | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

72. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

73. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1

74. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

75. David Carr, NYG | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

76. Joey Harrington, NO | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

77. [#]Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1

78. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1
Polish up that resume for the Iowa Barnstormers

3 comments:

Eli Manning said...

What??? I move up one spot???? I am still behind Aaron Rogers???? But, hey, I get a picture! I'm pissed, but I will keep it to myself in my cool, calm, Super Bowl MVP, 8th in Full Contact Points way.

Chris Wesseling said...

If I had Aaron Rodgers, you'd have to add a lot to Eli Manning to get me to make that trade.

But I realize other people like Eli a lot, so I can't continue to rank him where I'd like to rank him.

Frankly, you could offer me Eli for Kurt Warner right now, and I'd shoot it down without hesitation.

Chris Wesseling said...

D--

Hop on chat if you get a minute. I need to ask you something about Full Contact.