1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Young, ultra-talented, reliably consistent, and a target monster as well as red zone stud; ideal nucleus player.
2. Reggie Wayne, IND | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 97
Being Peyton Manning's #1 target is the perfect recipe for long-term value; high marks for consistency going forward.
3. Andre Johnson, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 97
The elite talent was always there, and now he has a QB who can get him the ball; only minor negative is history of unreliability at times.
4. Calvin Johnson, DET | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 96
I'm always willing to stick my neck out for dominant talent, and Calvin Johnson remains the most dominant WR talent to enter the league since Randy Moss; buy low if possible.
5. Steve Smith, CAR | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 96
Personally, I'd take Smith ahead of Wayne and Johnson, but I'm a gambler. Smith would be fighting for the top spot on this list if not for short- & long-term QB issues.
6. Brandon Marshall, DEN | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 95
There's more than a hint of high knucklehead potential here . . . and it now looks like some sort of (lengthy?) suspension is looming during the '08 season. See this post for deeper value discussion.
7. Randy Moss, NE | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 94
Dominant enough to stay productive with Cassel, but his consistency is in serious doubt.
8. Greg Jennings, GB | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 94
Was the '07 TD total an aberration, or can we expect Jennings to overcome his low target numbers to produce like a star even with Rodgers taking over for Favre?
9. #Marques Colston, NO | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 89
When can we start asking if Colston is injury-prone? He certainly doesn't leave me with a warm and safe feeling .
10. Terrell Owens, DAL | Age: 34.8 | Value Score: 88
Worth more to an annual contender than he is to a rebuilder; a true difference maker at a position where there aren't many, T.O. still gives you a weekly advantage over most of the owners in your league.
11. Braylon Edwards, CLE | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 87
I'm expecting consistent TD numbers, but the targets and yardage may be slightly less than the guys ahead of him.
12. #Anquan Boldin, ARI | Age: 27.9 | Value Score: 87
The difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2 is weekly reliability, and Boldin hasn't been reliable for a couple of seasons now. The talent is top-notch, but the assurance is waning.
13. Santonio Holmes, PIT | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 86
Outstanding playmaker who excels at taking a short-to-middle pass to the house; not yet the go-to WR in his own offense, and I'm slightly concerned that he's not physical enough to be a high reception WR.
14. Santana Moss, WAS | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 80
Went from over-rated to under-rated in one season. His inconsistency from game-to-game and year-to-year will always keep him out of the top tier, but he's too talented to be passed up by flavors of the day.
15. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 79
The Jets passing game just got a whole lot more reliable and explosive. Cotchery's value gets a nice spike, but it remains to be seen who Favre's favorite will be.
16. Dwayne Bowe, KC | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 79
Value is highly dependent on the Croyle situation this season; another elite physical talent at WR who should produce as both a playmaker and a possession WR.
17. Plaxico Burress, NYG | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 78
Return of the Knucklehead factor.
18. Lee Evans, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 78
Has Tier 1 talent but the Bills offense, especially the QB play, has held him back. Evans can be both a possession WR and a huge big play threat down the field. He has the whole package if his QB can get him the ball.
19. Roddy White, ATL | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 78
Prime sell-high. White did produce under all 3 woeful QBs in '07, but the Falcons had to pass a ton because their running game was so dreadful. With Mularkey's power running game and Michael Turner in town, plus further poor quarterbacking, the passing numbers will suffer in '08.
20. Chad Ocho Cinco, CIN | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 77
Highly consistent seasonal numbers but schizophrenic game-to-game numbers. Would be higher if not for his more severe than usual shenanigans this off-season; becoming very high risk as it gets more and more obvious that he's now a crazy person.
21. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN | Age: 30.9 | Value Score: 76
Clearly the #2 WR in the Bengals offense, Housh has produced like a stud for two years, but he's an ideal sell high this off-season due to his lack of staying power.
22. Roy Williams, DET | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 75
Desperately needs a trade . . . how about Tennessee?
23. Torry Holt, STL | Age: 32.3 | Value Score: 75
After an impressive display with a bum knee in a sunk offense in '07, expect Holt to bounce back with another Tier 1 performance in '08. Age & gimpy knee keeping his value down just a tad.
24. DeSean Jackson, PHI | Age: 21.8 | Value Score: 68
25. Hines Ward, PIT | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 67
Off-season surgery should help him regain a step or two after playing through tears of his MCL, PCL, and right meniscus last season; as exhibited in the playoff game against JAX, he's still Big Ben's most reliable WR as well as a prime red zone weapon.
26. Wes Welker, NE | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 67
I think Welker's '08 value takes a significant blow with Brady's injury. Can Cassel get the ball to Welker often enough to make him valuable? Will those short pass plays become runs instead?
27. Laveranues Coles, NYJ | Age: 30.7 | Value Score: 65
If Coles can fill the Donald Driver go-to role for Favre, he could stand to gain as much as anybody from the Favre trade. Still a lack of upside, but intriguing as a high catch/low TD WR3.
28. #Eddie Royal, DEN | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 64
An awful lot of buzz coming out of Broncos camp from his head coach, teammates, and beat writers.
29. Vincent Jackson, SD | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 63
Did Vincent Jackson make the leap in the playoffs, or was it simply the result of increased opportunity with Gates so gimpy? He can be a red zone weapon, but there are only so many balls to go around in San Diego.
30. Anthony Gonzalez, IND | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 62
It's so tough to rank Colts offensive players on talent because the Peyton Manning factor skews the results. There's no reason Gonzalez can't produce like a starter as long as he plays like a starter---no sure thing with Marvin possibly bouncing back this season.
31. Marvin Harrison, IND | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 60
"Mama always told me not to look into the eyes of the sun, but Mama, that's where the fun is." High risk, high reward. How lucky do you feel? I think Marvin has another difference-making season left in him, but I'm not willing to invest heavily to find out at age 36. Update: Harrison practicing and running freely; coach Dungy not worried about Philadelphia shooting.
32. #Chris Chambers, SD | Age: 30.1 | Value Score: 60
I've yet to see a convincing argument for Catch % as a tell-all metric, but that didn't stop the stats guys from hammering Chambers for years. He's still a very good talent, one of the better red zone receivers, and his current QB is a considerably better passer than any QB he ever had in Miami.
33. #Sidney Rice, MIN | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 53
The talent is obvious. Rice should be a playmaker and a TD scorer in a normal offense, but the Vikes are far from a normal offense; pray for a QB trade.
34. #Bernard Berrian, MIN | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 40
Grossman was a horrible QB, but at least he had eyes for Berrian. Changing teams is rarely friendly to non-elite WRs, and Berrian is headed to one quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson.
35. #Kevin Curtis, PHI | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 38
Explosive in doses but not reliable enough to be a weekly fantasy starter. Still, 1100 yards and 6 TDs isn't bad production for a WR3.
36. Donald Driver, GB | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 37
It doesn't pay to be Favre's go-to guy when Favre is no longer around; heading into his mid-thirties, Driver may be entering his last startable season.
37. Devin Thomas, WAS | Age: 21.8 | Value Score: 36
38. Matt Jones, JAX | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 36
39. Lance Moore, NO | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 35
40. Mark Clayton, BAL | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 34
Talk about a let-down season. As disappointing as Clayton's production was in '07, it's tough to muster up the faith again in '08. Seriously, zero TDs?! You better hope the string of foot, calf, and back injuries were much worse then he let on.
41. Donnie Avery, STL | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 32
42. Mike Walker, JAX | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 32
43. Robert Meachem, NO | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 31
Great buy-low as a '07 1st rounder who redshirted last season with a bothersome knee. A good deal more talented than the WRs ahead of him on the Saints depth chart, so don't rule a fast move now that he's healthy and working with David Patten to improve.
44. James Hardy, BUF | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 30
45. James Jones, GB | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 30
Favre's exit may lead the Pack to a gradual shift away from Driver and towards the younger receivers. Jones had a terrific rookie season as a 3rd WR in the Packers offense.
46. Jordy Nelson, GB | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 29
47. Ted Ginn Jr., MIA | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 29
No matter how fast you are, it's going to be tough for an unpolished WR to produce in that offense. All upside, no production at this point.
48. Reggie Brown, PHI | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 28
He just couldn't get the separation needed to become a reliable target for McNabb; may bounce back somewhat, but the lack of speed looks troublesome.
49. #Deion Branch, SEA | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 27
50. Bobby Engram, SEA | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 27
51. Antonio Bryant, TB | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 21
52. #Laurent Robinson, ATL | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 21
Needs to bulk up while he's stashed on your bench; it won't take much to bypass Michael Jenkins and Joe Horn, and he could end eventually end up with a Darrell Jackson type of career in right offense.
53. Derrick Mason, BAL | Age: 34.6 | Value Score: 20
54. Josh Morgan, SF | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 20
The star of Niners camp, Morgan was mentioned as a possible starter by Coach Nolan.
55. Chris Henry, CIN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 20
56. Steve Smith, NYG | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 19
57. Limas Sweed, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 18
58. #Malcolm Kelly, WAS | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 17
59. #Justin Gage, TEN | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 15
60. Kevin Walter, HOU | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 15
61. Patrick Crayton, DAL | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 14
62. [#]Nate Burleson, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 14
Plenty of opportunity in '08 with Branch injured and Hackett gone. If that translates into a marked increase in targets to go with his impressive '07 red zone production, Burleson could be a major sleeper.
63. Jerry Porter, JAX | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 13
Extremely high knuckle-head factor, always an over-rated talent, and the Jags just don't pass enough. Still, it beats the Raiders offense.
64. Javon Walker, OAK | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 13
Swampland in Florida, oceanfront property in Arizona---you name it, Walker is it. When your coach is openly pining for you to undergo microfracture surgery, then you might have a problematic future.
65. #Donte' Stallworth, CLE | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 12
66. #Joey Galloway, TB | Age: 36.8 | Value Score: 12
67. Steve Breaston, ARI | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 8
68. Miles Austin, DAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 8
69. Arnaz Battle, SF | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 8
70. Bryant Johnson, SF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 8
71. Isaac Bruce, SF | Age: 35.8 | Value Score: 8
72. D.J. Hackett, CAR | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 7
73. Reggie Williams, JAX | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 7
74. Jacoby Jones, HOU | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 6
How tough can it be to beat out Kevin Walter? The recent DWI didn't help matters.
75. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR | Age: 35.4 | Value Score: 6
76. Demetrius Williams, BAL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 6
77. Amani Toomer, NYG | Age: 34.0 | Value Score: 6
78. Jerome Simpson, CIN | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 5
79. Ronald Curry, OAK | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 5
I want to rank him higher, but I see tough days ahead in '08 with Russell learning on the job.
80. Jason Hill, SF | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 5
81. Mario Manningham, NYG | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 5
82. Devin Hester, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 5
83. Early Doucet, ARI | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 5
84. Craig Davis, SD | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 5
85. #Brandon Lloyd, CHI | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 4
86. Darrell Jackson, DEN | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 4
87. Will Franklin, KC | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 4
88. Lavelle Hawkins, TEN | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 4
89. Devery Henderson, NO | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 4
90. Antwaan Randle El, WAS | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 4
91. Brandon Stokley, DEN | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 4
92. #Drew Bennett, STL | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 4
93. [#]Ben Obomanu, SEA | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 4
94. Dwayne Jarrett, CAR | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 4
95. Isaiah Stanback, DAL | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 3
96. Harry Douglas, ATL | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 3
97. Andre Caldwell, CIN | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 3
98. Derek Hagan, MIA | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 3
99. Earl Bennett, CHI | Age: 21.5 | Value Score: 3
100. Hank Baskett, PHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 2
101. Courtney Taylor, SEA | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 2
102. Brandon Jones, TEN | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 2
103. #Keenan Burton, STL | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 2
104. Jabar Gaffney, NE | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 2
105. Sam Hurd, DAL | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 2
106. Domenik Hixon, NYG | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 2
107. #David Patten, NO | Age: 34.1 | Value Score: 2
108. Steve Johnson, BUF | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 2
Thursday, October 2, 2008