Rodgers, Aaron: Value Notes

SSOG 1/15/08: I never thought I'd find myself on this bandwagon a couple of years ago, but here I am. He's had several years to learn the NFL, which is a massive advantage (see Garrard, David and Schaub, Matt). He's the heir apparent for a franchise with a great supporting cast. Most importantly, and the thing that separates him from JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn (two guys who are also heirs apparent who are ranked ahead of Rodgers)... he's already shown something in the NFL. It's pretty much the definition of a small sample size, but the only players with a higher DVOA than Rodgers this year were Tom Brady, David Garrard, and Todd Collins. Yes, as I said, it's a small sample size... but he's still shown something. If I see someone play out of his mind in a small sample size, I'm not going to automatically conclude that he's very good... but I'm even more certainly not going to conclude that he's not very good. And QB25, in my mind, is firmly entrenched in "not very good" territory. Sure, you'll have to sit on him for a couple of years before you start seeing returns, but his cost is only going to rise from this point on, so now is the time to join me on the bandwagon. Especially if you already have a solid vet like Hasselbeck, Bulger, or McNabb manning your QB position.

EBF 1/15/08: Rodgers is this year's version of last year's Schaub. He comes at a low cost and will eventually be starting in the NFL. And while he hasn't shown quite as much as Schaub had by this point in his career, I think his odds of success are as good as you can hope for from an untested first round QB. I rank him right alongside Trent Edwards and Brady Quinn as a fringe top 20 dynasty QB.

Sons of the Tundra 1/17/08: We've discussed him quite a bit. Over the past year, he's gone from perceived first round bust and a guy in whom the Packers had little confidence to a guy who looks promising and should be ready to lead a good offense whenever he gets a chance. My ultimate take on Rodgers is the same as it was a couple of months ago: he's in the most unique QB position in fantasy football. His value rests almost entirely upon how large your league is. In leagues with large rosters, his value should be pretty high because they can afford to stash him for the nebulous amount of time it will take before he finally gets a shot. In smaller leagues, stashes are hard to keep in the corner of your roster through injuries, bye weeks, flavor-of-the-month waiver pick-ups, etc.

I saw a comparison to Schaub, which is fine. But do you believe Rodgers will be traded in the next year or so? Or he is fated to wait on the whims of Brett Favre?