Favre, Brett: Value Notes

SSOG 1/15/08: QB is a position where I feel pretty safe looking more than 2-3 years in advance, and when you go past 2 years, Favre's value starts dropping. If I think I have a serious shot at the superbowl next year, then Favre has value to me... but otherwise, he has literally no value to me whatsoever. In fact, Favre would probably have NEGATIVE value to me, since starting Favre will leave me with a worse rookie draft pick.

Even if I am competing for a superbowl next year, though... it's easy to lose sight of in light of the amazing year that Favre just had on the field, but he finished the season as the EIGHTH ranked fantasy QB. Shocking, but true. He's actually been consistently mediocre from a fantasy standpoint for a long time now. Over the last 4 years, he's passed 535, 613, 607, and 540 times... and doesn't have a single top-5 finish to show for it. In fact, Favre hasn't finished in the top 5 among fantasy QBs since 2001 (when he finished 5th). Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1998. And this is despite the fact that Favre never misses a game (so he can't blame his lower rankings on lost time, and his PPG numbers are *ALWAYS* worse than his season-ending rank would indicate). Over the last 4 years, he's finished 8th, 8th, 13th, and 6th. Yuck.

In other words, we're looking at a 39 year old QB who, despite having two of the top 12 seasons in NFL history in terms of passing attempts in the past 3 years has failed to crack the top 6 during that span. He's a guy who in a best-case scenario has been finishing 8th. And he's 39. And he's almost certainly gone after the next year or two.

In short... extremely old player with a very, very limited usage window mired in a long recent history of fantasy mediocrity. That's not the recipe for a top-12 fantasy QB, IMO. Hell, he should barely be cracking the fantasy top-10 in REDRAFT leagues at this point.

Sons of the Tundra 1/17/08: I think this is another one where you distorted the numbers quite a bit. He's another QB like Hasselbeck where I feel like you need to have a reliable starter if you don't have one of the Big 6, and Favre is one of the most reliable guys around. You have him as the 8th best QB scorer. In my league he finished 8th overall among all positions and tied for 5th among QBs. Frankly, it doesn't make any difference whether he was 5th or 8th because the 5th thru 8th QBs this season were basically the same QB for fantasy purposes. So the bottom line is that he allowed you stay competitive in almost all of your match-ups throughout the season while giving you an advantage in many of them.

You can point to his production the previous few seasons, but let's not ignore the obvious here. His weapons were basically limited to one, Donald Driver, and he was playing behind a greenhorn, oft-overwhelmed offensive line. The reason he produced so much better this season isn't because he suddenly captured the old magic again. It's because Jennings is healthy and has come on, James Jones has filled the void at WR3, and Donald Lee has become the best pass-catching TE Favre has had since Chmura. All of that behind an offensive line that has greatly improved over the last season and a half.

Favre may not put up a 100 QB rating and 30 TDs next season, but there's no reason to believe he can't stay one of the top 6-8 QBs in fantasy football...and it's possible he could surpass this year's numbers with the same cast back for another go 'round.

If I felt good enough about any of the young guys, I'd move them ahead of Favre. But I still have major questions about everybody that I have ranked below him.