Alexander, Shaun: Value Notes

Bossman 2/3/07: Shaun Alexander - how quickly we forget....1 season removed from 28 TD's and almost 2000 yds.

Sons of the Tundra 2/3/07: I don't think it's a matter of forgetting or not. I certainly remember his '05 season. It's more a matter of the fact that those stats are gone like a fart in the wind. You're not going to get credit for them in '07. So what we have to do is figure out his value for the next couple of years.

You could have made the same argument for Marshall Faulk after his 2002 season and say that he was one season removed from 21 TDs and two seasons removed from 26 TDs. But then you would have been stuck with an untradeable washed up RB. The Faulk owner in my league had this great plan to hold onto Faulk for a couple more runs at a league championship and then trade him right before his value went downhill. Unfortunately, Faulk didn't have another championship run left him, and the other owners in the league realized it by the time the Faulk owner did. He got stuck with a dwindling Faulk and didn't get to replace him with Steven Jackson.

I'm not saying Alexander can't bounce back to 16 TDs and 1450 yards rushing. But he has some things working against him now that he didn't have in '05. First of all, he's going to be 30 years old to start the season...with a lot of wear and tear on his body. Second, his offensive line is not nearly as strong as it was in '05, which may help explain the 3.6 YPC. Finally, he's coming off his first injury plagued season. That may be a fluke, but at age 30 it could also be a sign of things to come.

And again, it comes down to your own team's unique situation. I think there are several scenarios where he's more valuable to your team than some of the guys in front of him. He could be RB5 for your team and your league.