Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Quarterback Rankings | September 8, 2008

QUARTERBACKS

TIER ONE

1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 99
With Clark re-signed and Gonzalez ready to step up if Marvin doesn't snap back, Manning's consistency trumps Brady's career year.

2. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 95
Easily the 3rd best QB in the NFL and may bypass one of the Big Two in the next couple of years. And, yes, I said easily.

3. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 95
T.O.'s contract extension steadies value and maintains 30 TD expectations.

4. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 93
Impressive YPA & completion numbers bode very well for future; additions of Clady plus D-Jax and 2nd rounder Eddie Royal help to steady value. Marshall's offseason shenanigans and obvious high knucklehead potential are slightly worrisome.

5. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 93
Should be good for a consistent 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs every year for the next few years; Shockey addition adds a nice red zone weapon and improves the overall explosiveness of the offense.

6.
[#]Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 92
You can't use him for a full season, and there's legit concern that it may take him until 2010 to get back to dominant form. Of course, it's entirely possible he throws for 30+ TDs again in '09. How much are the next 16 weeks worth to you?

TIER TWO

7. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 85
I've seen guys like Eli Manning & Phil Rivers ranked ahead of him, in which case McNabb is the ideal buy low candidate for dynasty leaguers.

8. Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 84
Can he bounce all the way back from an extremely disappointing season? Chad is back after bickering with his QB, but Henry is gone and Housh could be on his way out in '09.

9. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 78
Favre's trade leaves Rodgers as the unquestioned starter, but that's going to be some spotlight he's occupying.

TIER THREE

10. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 68

11. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 66
He's going to have to stay healthy for all 16 games to shake the injury concerns, but there's a lot to like here. The YPA & completion percentage were very promising, so he just needs to find Johnson & Daniels in the end zone more often to take the next step to reliable #1 as opposed to an aspiring Bulger.

12. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 63
The 64,000 Question: Did the epiphany occur in the last 6 weeks, or was it simply the flip-side of an inconsistent QB hitting a hot streak? I believe the latter, and I can't see how even a true believer can feel comfortable relying on a streaky, inconsistent Eli as a QB1 going forward.

13. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 60
A much better QB than commonly believed, but he's not likely to surpass last year's passing quality. If the running game slips from true dominance, does Garrard's production see an uptick from the increased attempts or do the passing lanes start to close with the defense no longer selling out against the run?

14. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 59
A window to make his mark as the Browns' franchise QB with the addition of Stallworth as a #3 weapon behind Edwards & Winslow; slightly worrisome is that Anderson's 2009 bonus could essentially make his new contract a one-year deal if he doesn't play up to expectations. I was getting a Jake Delhomme vibe from last season, but I'm starting to also pick up on a Jeff Blake similarity. I worry about his stability.

15. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 55
Al Saunders and an improved O-Line could bring production back in line with career norms, but don't expect many TDs; deteriorating receiving crew is worrisome.

16. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 54
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

TIER FOUR

17. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 44
Early signing could be an indication the team wants him to start early in the season, but he'll be doing it behind a woeful offensive line.

18. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 43
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

19. #Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 40
Deserved a better fate last season after seeing a freakish number of TDs called back due to penalty, drops by a lousy receiving crew, or poor route running/miscommunication. Still has plenty of upside and the possibility of a true break-out season if the light flips on with improved weaponry.

20. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 39
Positive marks for poise, smarts, and an ability to lead an offense, but he needs to take a major step forward in playmaking and consistency; addition of rookie Hardy should help put the ball in the end zone more often.

21. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 38
Time to start the handcuffing strategy with Arizona QBs? Simply put, he needs Leinart to fall on his face in the pre-season. Warner threw up valuable fantasy numbers the last 12 games of '07 and can do it again if given the opportunity.

22. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 37
It would be foolish not to count on an adjustment period to the West Coast Offense and a new coaching staff; I think we've all seen him look very poised at times and extremely underwhelming at other times, so it will be interesting to watch his growth throughout '08. Remember the Losman/Grossman Effect: young QBs don't always get better.

23. Brett Favre, NYJ | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 35
Jay Glazier reports Favre to the Jets for a conditional pick. That's gotta be a two-year commitment for Favre, right? He could still climb a bit once details start to roll in.

24. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 34
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

25. Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 33
Still has a window on '08 value with playmakers Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, but his margin for
error is razor-thin with Stanton waiting in the wings . . . and Kitna is never a strong bet to defeat his margin of error.

26. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 32
Top of the line arm, perfect size, prodigious talent, but the footwork was an absolute mess and questions persist about his decision making; his career could go either way, and unfortunately, Oakland isn't exactly the ideal proving ground for a developing QB right now.

TIER FIVE

27. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 22
High risk, high reward; after Warner's performance, there's going to be pressure to perform well right from the start. But if he does, he could easily see a 25 TD, 3700 yard season.

28. #Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 20
Jon Kitna will be on a much shorter leash, so expect Stanton to get a chance at some point in '08; if Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams remain in DET, Stanton makes for a very intriguing high upside pet project.

29. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 19

30. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 19

31. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 17
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

32. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 16
A legit chance to line up behind center in Week 1? The competition has been less than impressive. On the other hand, even with the starting job in a Martz offense, his crappy play will likely have the team looking for alternatives sooner rather than later.

33. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 14
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.

34. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 13

TIER SIX

35. Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 7
Will battle Luke McCown to see who starts once Garcia gets injured.

36. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 6

37. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 6

38. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 6
Free agent after 2008 season.

39. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 5
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

40. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 4

41. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 4

42. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 3

43. Byron Leftwich, PIT | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
When asked why he thought Leftwich was out of football, Tomlin said, “Your guess is as good as mine, based on what I saw today.”

44. #Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 3
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

45. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 3

46. #Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 3
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

47. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 3
Plucky. That's it. That's the list. OK, neckbeard. That's on the list too. Woe are the Bears.

48. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 3
Likely to drop even further . . . the initial reaction is: why carry him ?

49. #Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he starts week one.

TIER SEVEN

50. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 2

51. #Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 2
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

52. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 2

53. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 2
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

54. Chris Simms, TEN | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2

55. *Michael Vick, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

56. #Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 2
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

57. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 2
Second on the depth chart means he just needs Croyle to play like Croyle in order to get a shot.

58. #Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 2
Awful preseason lowers expectations about taking over for Delhomme anytime soon.

59. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2

60. [#]Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2
Two of his three NFL seasons have produced historically bad performances. I don't think he beats Shaun Hill in a fair competition, but the 49ers have a lot invested here.

61. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

62. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2
Fantasy leaguers keep insisting that he must be passing up better opportunities elsewhere; but what are the chances NFL GMs are as fond of his game as fantasy owners are?

TIER EIGHT

63. Brett Ratliff, NYJ | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1

64. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1
Was seen as one of the most NFL-ready QBs in the draft and may get a chance earlier than expected if Tarvaris Jackson can't put it together.

65. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

66. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

67. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1
Captain Checkdown currently sandwiched between journeyman Josh McCown and Parcells/Sparano future starter Chad Henne.

68. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1
Upside is band-aid for a year, but Ryan's quick signing could signal the team's willingness to throw him into the fire right from the get-go.

69. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 1
Decent shot at Kurt Warner-like startable value if Bulger goes down, but keep in mind any value would be of the fleeting variety.

70. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

71. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

72. Josh McCown, CAR | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

73. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

74. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 1

75. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

76. David Carr, NYG | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

77. Joey Harrington, UFA | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

78. Caleb Hanie, CHI | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 1

79. Quinn Gray, UFA | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 1

80. Jared Lorenzen, UFA | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

81. [#]Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1

2 comments:

sterjs said...

Good to see that Vince Young was finally moved down to a more reasonable position. He is a headcase and is unlikely to develop into a solid starter.

Chris Wesseling said...

Yeah, the odds certainly seemed stacked against him right now. I had no idea he was that distressed mentally & emotionally. It's a shame.