Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Quarterback Rankings | September 25, 2008



1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 99
With Clark re-signed and Gonzalez ready to step up if Marvin doesn't snap back, Manning's consistency trumps Brady's career year.

2. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 97
Impressive YPA & completion numbers bode very well for future; additions of Clady plus D-Jax and 2nd rounder Eddie Royal help to steady value. Marshall's offseason shenanigans and obvious high knucklehead potential are slightly worrisome.

3. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 96
T.O.'s contract extension steadies value and maintains 30 TD expectations.

4. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 96
Should be good for a consistent 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs every year for the next few years; Shockey addition adds a nice red zone weapon and improves the overall explosiveness of the offense.

5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 93
Taking too many hits. . .


6. [#]Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 87
You can't use him for a full season, and there's legit concern that it may take him until 2010 to get back to dominant form. Of course, it's entirely possible he throws for 30+ TDs again in '09. How much are the next 16 weeks worth to you?

7. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 86
I've seen guys like Eli Manning & Phil Rivers ranked ahead of him, in which case McNabb is the ideal buy low candidate for dynasty leaguers.

8. #Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 79
Favre's trade leaves Rodgers as the unquestioned starter, but that's going to be some spotlight he's occupying.

9. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 78
It's unheard of to be playing the best football of your career fresh off of ACL surgery. Kudos to Rivers and his offseason backers.

10. #Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 75
Can he bounce all the way back from an extremely disappointing season? Chad is back after bickering with his QB, but Henry is gone and Housh could be on his way out in '09.

11. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 69
The 64,000 Question: Did the epiphany occur in the last 6 weeks, or was it simply the flip-side of an inconsistent QB hitting a hot streak? I believe the latter, and I can't see how even a true believer can feel comfortable relying on a streaky, inconsistent Eli as a QB1 going forward.

12. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 66
Time to start the handcuffing strategy with Arizona QBs? Simply put, he needs Leinart to fall on his face in the pre-season. Warner threw up valuable fantasy numbers the last 12 games of '07 and can do it again if given the opportunity.


13. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 58
He's going to have to stay healthy for all 16 games to shake the injury concerns, but there's a lot to like here. The YPA & completion percentage were very promising, so he just needs to find Johnson & Daniels in the end zone more often to take the next step to reliable #1 as opposed to an aspiring Bulger.

14. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 57
A much better QB than commonly believed, but he's not likely to surpass last year's passing quality. If the running game slips from true dominance, does Garrard's production see an uptick from the increased attempts or do the passing lanes start to close with the defense no longer selling out against the run?

15. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 55
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

16. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 50
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

17. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 49
Positive marks for poise, smarts, and an ability to lead an offense, but he needs to take a major step forward in playmaking and consistency; addition of rookie Hardy should help put the ball in the end zone more often.

18. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 48
It would be foolish not to count on an adjustment period to the West Coast Offense and a new coaching staff; I think we've all seen him look very poised at times and extremely underwhelming at other times, so it will be interesting to watch his growth throughout '08. Remember the Losman/Grossman Effect: young QBs don't always get better.

19. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 44
Early signing could be an indication the team wants him to start early in the season, but he'll be doing it behind a woeful offensive line.


20. Brett Favre, NYJ | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 36
Jay Glazier reports Favre to the Jets for a conditional pick. That's gotta be a two-year commitment for Favre, right? He could still climb a bit once details start to roll in.

21. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 35
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

22. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 34
Very likely to get his job back again at some point in '08.

23. #Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 32
Deserved a better fate last season after seeing a freakish number of TDs called back due to penalty, drops by a lousy receiving crew, or poor route running/miscommunication. Still has plenty of upside and the possibility of a true break-out season if the light flips on with improved weaponry.

24. #Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 31
Jon Kitna will be on a much shorter leash, so expect Stanton to get a chance at some point in '08; if Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams remain in DET, Stanton makes for a very intriguing high upside pet project.

25. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 30
A legit chance to line up behind center in Week 1? The competition has been less than impressive. On the other hand, even with the starting job in a Martz offense, his crappy play will likely have the team looking for alternatives sooner rather than later.


26. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 23
Dead man walking, but where does he end up in '09?

27. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 22
He'll get another chance to start for the Cardinals, but when will it happen?

28. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 22
Top of the line arm, perfect size, prodigious talent, but the footwork was an absolute mess and questions persist about his decision making; his career could go either way, and unfortunately, Oakland isn't exactly the ideal proving ground for a developing QB right now.

29. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 21
Will take over for Pennington at some point this season.

30. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 19

31. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 18
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

32. Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 17
Big trouble soon come.


33. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 7
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

34. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7

35. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 7

36. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 5
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.

37. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 4

38. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 4
Plucky. That's it. That's the list. OK, neckbeard. That's on the list too. Woe are the Bears.

39. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 4

40. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 4
Free agent after 2008 season.


41. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 3

42. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 3

43. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 3

44. #Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 3
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

45. Byron Leftwich, PIT | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
When asked why he thought Leftwich was out of football, Tomlin said, “Your guess is as good as mine, based on what I saw today.”

46. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 3

47. Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 3
Will battle Luke McCown to see who starts once Garcia gets injured.

48. Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 3
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

49. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 3
Likely to drop even further . . . the initial reaction is: why carry him ?

50. #Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he starts week one.


51. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 2
Decent shot at Kurt Warner-like startable value if Bulger goes down, but keep in mind any value would be of the fleeting variety.

52. Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 2
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

53. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 2

54. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 2
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

55. Chris Simms, TEN | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2

56. *Michael Vick, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

57. #Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 2
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

58. #Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 2
Awful preseason lowers expectations about taking over for Delhomme anytime soon.

59. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2

60. [#]Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2
Two of his three NFL seasons have produced historically bad performances. I don't think he beats Shaun Hill in a fair competition, but the 49ers have a lot invested here.

61. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

62. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2
Fantasy leaguers keep insisting that he must be passing up better opportunities elsewhere; but what are the chances NFL GMs are as fond of his game as fantasy owners are?


63. Brett Ratliff, NYJ | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1

64. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1
Was seen as one of the most NFL-ready QBs in the draft and may get a chance earlier than expected if Tarvaris Jackson can't put it together.

65. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

66. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

67. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1
Captain Checkdown currently sandwiched between journeyman Josh McCown and Parcells/Sparano future starter Chad Henne.

68. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1
Upside is band-aid for a year, but Ryan's quick signing could signal the team's willingness to throw him into the fire right from the get-go.

69. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

70. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

71. Josh McCown, CAR | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

72. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

73. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 1

74. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

75. David Carr, NYG | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

76. Joey Harrington, UFA | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

77. Caleb Hanie, CHI | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 1

78. Quinn Gray, UFA | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 1

79. Jared Lorenzen, UFA | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

80. [#]Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1

81. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1
Polish up that resume for the Iowa Barnstormers


EdMcGon said...

Right now, Cutler is the #1 QB in fantasy football, period. If I was drafting in a new keeper league, I'd take Cutler before Manning, only because of age. At best, Manning has 5-6 good years left in him.

In addition, Cutler can only get better, which is a scary thought.

Chris Wesseling said...

So you're looking more than 5 years down the road? I would never look that far b/c change happens too quickly in this league.

I love Cutler, but I think your logic is faulty. Cutler can certainly get worse. Young QBs go through hot streaks all the time, but can they build on it? Remember Rex Grossman & J.P. Losman at the end of '06? Everybody loved them and said "they can only get better." Whoops.

I'm not say Cutler is in the Grossman/Losman category, but I just hear that logic all the time . . . and I think it's a weak reason for ranking him over an every year rock like Manning.

EdMcGon said...

Cutler isn't a QB who is "showing potential" like Grossman and Losman. Cutler is playing at the top of the game right now. Watch him play, and you will see. It ain't just good numbers he's putting up. This guy is putting on a passing clinic every week.

Here's a prediction for you: Before the end of this season, you will have Cutler rated above Manning. ;)

Chris Wesseling said...

I don't think we disagree on Cutler's talent and playing level at all. He's phenomenal.

I just disagree with using the "he can only get better logic" to put him over an every year rock like Manning. Any QB can have an awesome season (see Culpepper and a host of others), but Manning is elite year in and year out. Can Cutler be that guy too? I think so, yeah. But Manning is that guy.

Anonymous said...

I kinda think you may be too high on Tom Brady, he's obviously useless this season and he likely won't be back to normal after a torn ACL,Rivers is the exception not the rule. I can't see him over McNabb or Rivers just because they have a ton of value right now and may have just as much or more next year and many years down the road in Rivers case.

Also, I think you might be jumping the gun a little on the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon, yes he's off to a nice start, but he's still pretty unproven. Just seems like he needs to do more before he's elevated ahead of guys like Rivers and Palmer and maybe even Eli.

EdMcGon said...

I would argue, based on his performance this season, as well as the potential he showed last season WITH undiagnosed diabetes, that Cutler IS that guy right now.

In addition, considering Manning was not healthy during the offseason, and the fact that Cutler is outperforming Manning right now, Manning appears to be on the downside of his career.

Don't get me wrong: Manning's downside is still better than most quarterbacks. But in discussions of elite quarterbacks, it is still an important consideration.

It is also important to consider upside in elite QB discussions, and Cutler has upside. Not in the statistical sense, but rather in the quarterbacking skills sense. He still pulls an occasional young QB blunder (see the infamous fumble in the Chargers game). Get rid of those blunders, as Cutler will in time, and you have a monstrously good QB, who could conceivably be better than Manning in his prime.

Chris Wesseling said...

I have Tom Brady, and I can tell you that I wouldn't even be tempted to pull the trigger on Phil Rivers straight up. No way.

McNabb? Maybe, but I'd just assume plug in Kurt Warner the rest of the season and bring Brady back as a difference-making starter next year. Brady just came off the best QB season of all time, and he's coming back to Moss & Welker. I'd have to get an elite QB to give up on that difference making potential.

I've been more impressed with Aaron Rodgers' first few starts than I've ever been with Eli Manning. I do admit, however, that he's a legit injury risk.

Chris Wesseling said...

I'll repeat that I love Cutler, but I think you're putting way too much stock in Manning's first few games of the season. He'll return from the bye week as his normal, reliable No. 1 QB self.