Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Running Back Rankings | August 26, 2008

RUNNING BACKS

TIER ONE

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 100
Simply the most talented player on the field [click here].

2. Steven Jackson, STL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 98
I won't start worrying about the holdout until mid-August at the earliest.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 97
Have we seen the last of the truly dominant LT2? He may bounce back with a vengeance after all the flack he took for the Pats game, but it's tough to rank him higher at the crucial RB age of 29.

4. Frank Gore, SF | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 94
Talented, well-rounded, great job security, and in line to haul in a ton of receptions in Martz' offense which saw Marshall Faulk take his game to the next level.

5. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 93
Money in PPR leagues and still underrated, but injuries are a constant concern; is this offseason the time to flip him for a younger talent before it's too late?

TIER TWO

6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 87
Hit-and-run incident shouldn't affect his '08 value.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 86
One of the best players in the NFL and averages a TD per game even in limited touches; his time for Westbrook-like domination is coming like a freight train.

8. Joseph Addai, IND | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 86
Safe call in the Colts offense, but is 300 touches per year his limit?

9. #Marion Barber III, DAL | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 84
New contract gives him much-needed security, but he's still going to be sharing the load with Felix Jones. Expect the high TD, lower yardage totals to continue.

TIER THREE

10. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 21.5 | Value Score: 75
Hey, Adrian Peterson starting out returning kickoffs too. Stewart's draft spot and running style leave him as the obvious feature back, but it remains to be seen how annoying D-Willy's presence will be. Pro Football Prospectus believes Williams will be the starter, but the Panthers didn't draft Stewart twelfth overall and change to a smash-mouth attack just to leave him on the bench.


11. Chris Johnson, TEN | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 74
See here for explanation of high ranking.

12. Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 73
We have to accept the fact that he's not the dynamic homerun hitter he was hyped to be, but he's still gold in PPR leagues and was used at the goal-line while Deuce was injured.

13. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 72
Something is askew here: his owners are constantly trying to deal him, but they also consider him an elite back. The problem is he's not quite the ideal RB1 that dynasty leaguers want to rely on, but it's increasingly difficult to trade him for an upgrade. Where is the burst?

14. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 21.0 | Value Score: 72
On one hand, you've got a RB with laughably skinny chicken legs to go with a worrisome BMI, a checkered off the field college history, and what Pro Football Prospectus calls questionable pass-catching ability. On the other hand, you have a tremendous athlete with a truly versatile skill-set, a prodigious college career, and a playmaker's explosiveness and blazing speed. He's not Adrian Peterson, but he certainly makes for an intriguing roll of the dice.

15. Ryan Grant, GB | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 69
The Packers love his game, so there's no worry about job security any time soon; how will Favre's exit affect the production of the running game?

16. Larry Johnson, KC | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 68
With the dwindling YPC, the 400+ carry season of '06, the foot injury, the perdition of what was once possibly the best O-Line in NFL history, and now a punchless Croyle-led offense, L.J. simply has too much going against him to return to '05-'06 form. Those days are gone.

17. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 67
Will be the Thunder to Norwood's Lightning in ATL, meaning Turner will get the early down and short-yardage work but will likely lose some value in the passing game. Will he find the end zone enough to make up for Norwood's production drain?

TIER FOUR

18. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT | Age: 21.2 | Value Score: 60
Goes to a rock-solid organization with an increasingly explosive offense, but how long until he takes a full load? How long until he's a confident weekly play in your fantasy lineup?

19. #Willis McGahee, BAL | Age: 26.9 | Value Score: 59
Drafting of Ray Rice could be more troublesome than McGahee owners want to admit. An awful O-Line and injury questions give further reason for concern.

20. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 58
Here's the crux of the problem: even with the advances of modern medical technology, no RB in history has returned as the same back immediately after ACL surgery. If Brown won't be truly himself again until '09, what's his dynasty value? Can he be counted on as a fantasy starter at all in '08? The answer to that last question is going to count for a lot in determining his value.

21. Laurence Maroney, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 56
It will be interesting to see if the Pats trust Maroney in short yardage after his success there late in the season; Maroney is a talented back in a great offense, but there are still legit concerns about his usage patterns in that offense.

22. Jamal Lewis, CLE | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 54
Too many dynasty owners are writing off a talented back who is playing very well with fresh legs6 there aren't too many RBs around the league with this much job security and a guaranteed prominent role in a highly productive offense. Frankly, I probably have him too low as opposed to too high. Hamstring scare has early '08 value in peril.

23. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 53
He will always face questions about staying healthy and being a bit of a novelty act, and now he has to contend with an Ahmad Bradshaw problem. Would a contract extension really clear anything up about his value?

TIER FIVE

24. Ray Rice, BAL | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 45
Willis McGahee better stay healthy if he knows what's good for him. In the meantime, Rice will try to carve out a poor man's MJD role for himself in the Ravens offense.

25. Matt Forte, CHI | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 44
Are you really worried about Cedric Benson? Well then, stop that. Forte has a plum opportunity with only Cedric to beat out. Update 7/17/08: I still believe Kevin Jones is likely to open the season on the PUP list.

26. Willie Parker, PIT | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 43
When you lose goal-line carries & 3rd down work, you lose a hefty portion of your fantasy value; I like FWP, but I've always sensed that the Steelers don't trust him to be a true workhorse. Mendenhall's addition may leaves him virtually unstartable and certainly unreliable.

27. DeAngelo Williams, CAR | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 42
A former first-round pick himself, he's obviously not ready to just hand the job to Jonathan Stewart.

28. Selvin Young
, DEN | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 41
Talented, explosive, and well-liked by his head coach, but how consistent will the carries be? Looks like the obvious starter in Denver now that Henry has been released.

29. Felix Jones, DAL | Age: 21.3 | Value Score: 40
Barber's contract extension and Jones' skill-set combine to leave him as a part-time back for the foreseeable future. He's going to have to catch a lot of passes and break quite a few big plays to have startable value any time soon.

30. Chris Perry, CIN | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 38
As brittle as brittle can be, and likely lost more than a step by now, but there's a window of opportunity in Cincy's backfield.

31. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 36
arly favorite to nail down the starting job despite what you may hear about Brian Calhoun or Tatum Bell.

TIER SIX

32. Tim Hightower, ARI | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 28
It remains to be seen how talented he is, but he's landed in a great spot for instant opportunity. Hightower must impress this season, or the Cards will address the position with a higher pick or free agent next offseason.

33. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 28
Like Willie Parker a couple of years ago, Thomas could capitalize on a huge Week 17 game to carve out a prominent role in his team's offense especially if Deuce's microfracture right knee and ACL left knee hold him back.

34. Thomas Jones, NYJ | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 27
Aging mediocrity could have a nice bounceback season with Favre on board and an improved O-Line, but don't go overboard paying for him.

35. Earnest Graham, TB | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 27
Most of his value is going to be tied up in the 2008 season with the Bucs showing a definite interest in finding another reliable RB by hook or by crook; he can help you win now, but there's just not enough long-range value here . . . as evidenced by his meager contract extension.

36. Ricky Williams, MIA | Age: 31.3 | Value Score: 25
Could be a good story here if Brown is slow to return to full health; after a couple of seasons away from football, Ricky should have fresh legs and is one of the few backups who can carry a full load if needed.

37. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 24
I was eyeballing his game for weaknesses throughout the playoffs, but I didn't find any glaring ones; he may not be able to carry a full load, but the question is moot with Jacobs in front of him.

TIER SEVEN

38. Michael Bush, OAK | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 17
Now that he's healthy, can he stay healthy? If so, carving out a role as the thunder to McFadden's lightning is a possibility.

39. #Ryan Torain, DEN | Age: 22.1 | Value Score: 16
RB with an injury-history is out 2-3 months with a fractured elbow and could be a candidate for I.R.

40. LenDale White, TEN | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 16
Let's quit jerking around here: the seeping leak in LenDale's value this offseason has been gashed open by Chris Johnson since training camp started.

41. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 15
Lo0oks like a third down back to me. He may be interesting as a Leon Washington type, but I don't see him ever taking the job in Houston and making it valuable.

42. Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 15
Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love.

43. Edgerrin James, ARI | Age: 30.1 | Value Score: 15
The cliff is approaching fast; his goal-line & passing game production have already been taken away while his workload and injury work against him.

44. Julius Jones, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 11
Seahawks announce intention to use a committee attack in the backfield; but Jones will have a chance to run with the job if he impresses early in the season.

45. Mike Hart, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 10
Major sleeper if he can get past Dominic Rhodes. Well-rounded runner could be one injury away from the Colts starting job.

46. #Maurice Morris, SEA | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 10

47. Chester Taylor, MIN | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 9
As valuable of a pure backup as any RB in the league, Taylor is still most valuable to Adrian Peterson owners; won't be a free agent until after the '09 season when he'll be almost 31-years-old.

48. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 9
As expected, Norwood won't be given an opportunity to shoulder the load in ATL; how valuable can be with limited touches?

TIER EIGHT

49. Brandon Jackson, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7
Jackson owners who drafted him with a high rookie pick want to believe he could eventually win the job from Grant, but it's just not going to happen. Jackson is buried behind Grant, and he'll be lucky to get regular 3rd down duty.

50. Derrick Ward, NYG | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 7
Looks like injury history scared off potential suitors, so he re-signs with Giants which dampens his value.

51. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 7
A homerun hitter, but just not physical enough to ever be more than a part-timer; his only hope for value is to catch enough passes to be useful in PPR leagues.

52. Jamaal Charles, KC | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 7
A kick returner and role player for as long as LJ stays healthy and productive.

53. Andre Hall, DEN | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 6
Short-yardage back and No. 2 to Selvin Young.

54. LaMont Jordan, NE | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 6
Mike Lombardi says go get LaMont Jordan because the Patriots are going to use him.

55. Sammy Morris
, NE | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 6
Was a good fit in New England's offense, but Maroney stepped up when Morris was out with his sternum/clavicle injury; will he keep the short-yardage/goal-line work?

56. Fred Taylor, JAX | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 6
Has as much value as a 32-year-old, part-timer without goal-line and passing game opportunities can possibly have.

57. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 6
No longer startable except as a flex, and it only gets worse from there.

58. Ahman Green, HOU | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 6
Mistakenly regarded as washed up when he should more accurately be portrayed as a RB who can still play and play well but can't stay healthy under a full workload at this stage of his career.

59. Rudi Johnson, DET | Age: 28.9 | Value Score: 6
Looking more and more like he'll have his job back full-time to open the season, but this could be more of a committee approach than previous seasons. Nagging hamstring is cause for concern.

60. Chris Taylor, HOU | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 6
Longshot, but the coaching staff seems high on him.

61. Ladell Betts, WAS | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 5
Now more insurance for Portis as opposed to a backfield complement; startable in the event of a Portis injury but valueless in the meantime.

62. Lorenzo Booker, PHI | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 5
Only hope for value is as a flex player in PPR leagues. Can he catch enough passes to make himself relevant?

63. Kenny Watson, CIN | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 5
Too pedestrian to grab hold of the starting RB job and run with it, but a repeat of his effective '07 season is possible if no other RB steps up for the Bengals.

TIER NINE

64. Fred Jackson, BUF | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 4
Coaching staff is high on him, but he's more of a change of pace/pure backup as opposed to a guy with an opportunity.

65. Jalen Parmele, MIA | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 4
Talented rookie has only an injury-prone starter and flaky backup in front him.

66. [#]Cadillac Williams, TB | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 3
We've heard everything from "career's over" to "suiting up by week one." The most like scenario is that he'll start the season on the PUP list and will be a shadow of his former self once he does return . . . and truth be told his former self wasn't all that hot to begin with.

67. Tashard Choice, DAL | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 3
Barber's new long-term deal renders Choice to roster fodder for a couple of years.

68. Justin Forsett, SEA | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 3

69. #Deuce McAllister, NO | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 3
Wait, ACL surgery on his left knee and microfracture surgery on his formerly reconstructed right knee? Now that's a horse of a different color for a 30-year-old RB. Why weren't we informed of this microfracture surgery? I can't envision a scenario where Deuce is not washed up at this point.

TIER TEN

70. Jacob Hester, SD | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 2

71. Darren Sproles, SD | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
Explosive. Could find fantasy value as a receiving weapon out of the backfield if the Chargers made it a point to get the ball to him, but his slight build will likely keep him from handling the ball enough to make a sizable fantasy impact.

72. Xavier Omon, BUF | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 2

73. Antonio Pittman, STL | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 2
More of a pure backup than Brian Leonard at this point.

74. Jerome Harrison, CLE | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 2

75. Gary Russell, PIT | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 2

76. Kolby Smith, KC | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 2
Was decent in a 5-game trial at the end of the season, but he's limited to backup duty going forward.

77. Dominic Rhodes, IND | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 2
Back in Indy, but will he get the benefit of the doubt over rookie Hart?

78. *Jesse Chatman, NYJ | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 2

79. DeShaun Foster, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2
Signed a meager contract to head West as Frank Gore's backup; don't look for a heavy role in the offense unless Gore gets injured.

80. Adrian Peterson, CHI | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 2
ight now he's the most effective RB in Chicago, but will likely go back to his former role when new talent is added in the draft.

81. Kregg Lumpkin, GB | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 2

TIER ELEVEN

82. Cedric Benson, UFA | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 1
Benson will be expensive to cut, but his latest drunk driving charge gives GM Angelo a convenient out that allows him to save face on Benson's missing talent.

83. Michael Bennett, TB | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 1

84. [#]Chris Brown, HOU | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 1
Picked a good situation with Texans' zone blocking scheme and no dominant RB in front of him, but Brown just can't be relied on as more than a committee back.

85. Warrick Dunn, TB | Age: 33.7 | Value Score: 1
Ill-suited to 3rd down work at this point in his career, but that's where he's going to play.

86. Michael Pittman, DEN | Age: 33.1 | Value Score: 1

87. J.J. Arrington, ARI | Age: 25.6 | Value Score: 1
Appears the Cardinals don't see him as anything more than a 3rd down back

88. Mewelde Moore, PIT | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1
A weapon in the passing game and likely to take over punt-return duties; has a track record of impressive performance in small doses but gets nicked up easily.

89. Marcus Thomas, DET | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 1

90. Michael Robinson, SF | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

91. Aaron Stecker, NO | Age: 32.8 | Value Score: 1

92. Correll Buckhalter, PHI | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

93. Danny Ware, NYG | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 1

94. Chauncy Washington, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 1

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why is Michael Turner so low? He isn't stuck in a committee or injured like Brown and McGahee. He's proven he can play at the NFL level(unlike Mendenhall) and he's got much less mileage than Lewis. While I don't think the Falcons are going to be great by any means, I don't think they will be any worse than a team like Miami.

Joseph Addai also seems slightly low. I know the knock on him is that he isn't a special talent and he might not be a 300-carry back, but there is no evidence to suggest MJD is a 300-carry back. In fact the Jags seem very content to let him stay behind Fred Taylor. As for Lynch, I just don't see a lot of upside there, he doesn't catch passes, he's on a mediocre at best team and he Fred Jackson looked just as good when Lynch was hurt. His main 2 attributes seem to be he's 22 and a starter. That just doesn't seem like enough to be ahead of a guy like Addai.

Chris Wesseling said...

I think all of your arguments are very reasonable, and I think they're very much in line with conventional thinking. But here's where I differ. . .

I've gone over Turner several times, but the Cliff's notes version is this: his offense will struggle, his offensive line is awful, he doesn't catch passes, and the data on backup RB taking starting jobs with a new team is almost overwhelmingly negative.

I expect Lewis to have a 2-year window in a much better offense, behind a much better line, and a larger role in the offense.

Re: MJD vs. Addai. MJD is a much better football player, and Fred Taylor is almost 33-years-old. His talent is special, and nobody on the Jags can come close to duplicating what he does on the field. Addai is a nice talent as well, but the Colts can plug anybody into his spot and not miss a beat (as witnessed by Kenton Keith in 2007 -- and now likely headed to the CFL).

Lynch upside is very good talent, an offensive with some interesting young talent, the ability to catch plenty of passes, and an offensive coordinator who has come out and said "Marshawn Lynch will be a much bigger part of our passing game in 2008."

I know everyone is very high on Addai, and it's shocking to see MJD & Lynch above him, but I just believe they have more talent and better long-term value.

Chris Wesseling said...

Oh . . . and look at their value scores on MJD, Lynch, and Addai:

87, 87, 86 -- they're practically ranked identically. I don't think their value could get much closer.

sterjs said...

You mention worrisome BMI in the section on McFadden, but you don't mention it in the section on Chris Johnson. How strongly do you feel about the BMI evidence that suggests Chris Johnson is probably not stout enough to hold up as a feature back in the NFL?

Chris Wesseling said...

sterjs,

I'm not worried about it with Johnson because I think he's truly a unique NFL RB. I don't think we've seen anyone like him yet, and I don't use BMI as a bible at all. It's still got a lot of firming up to do as a useful indicator. I wonder how BMI will fare vs. the formula that Football Outsiders use -- (Weight*200/40Time^4). Johnson finished first among all rookie backs in that formula.

I threw it on McFadden as one of several factors to worry about. Johnson doesn't have all the field concerns, nor does he questions about his pass catching ability.

But truth be told, I'm not really worried about Johnson or McFadden.

Chris Wesseling said...

"off the field" concerns

sterjs said...

"I wonder how BMI will fare vs. the formula that Football Outsiders use -- (Weight*200/40Time^4). Johnson finished first among all rookie backs in that formula."

I think Speed Score is an interesting idea. I am not sure whether it is more useful than Rob Pitzer's composite ratings based on Age, Draft Position and BMI. Draft position is a catch all variable for athleticism as well as other factors. Very high draft picks like McFadden have a great track record as fantasy RBs.

starred4life said...

Good stuff as usual Chris...I've been meaning to congratulate you on your call about the Fins re-signing R. Williams for '09 in an earlier convo we had regarding Ronnie Brown...NICE CALL.

Funny that Addai is mentioned in these comments, as that's who I have a question about.

Question: I've been offered this trade--Joseph Addai and a 3rd round selection next year for T. Owens and R. Grant.

(NOTE: Addai cannot be kept next year per league rules as he's already been kept for two years. Grant can be kept for another year, and T.O can be kept for two more.)

I'm having a hard time with this, as I'm a littler higher than most on Grant. I can look past the QB issues and the "it was only 8 games" issue, but his hammy injury, and injuries to his O-line are making it tough to remain on his wagon.

My other two starting-caliber WRs are Cal. Johnson and Steve Smith.

Making the trade would give me:

B. Westbrook
J. Addai
M. Barber III
Chris Johnson

Steve Smith (starting in wk 3)
Cal. Johnson

What do you (or anyone else for that matter) think?

Sorry ahead of time if this isn't the proper forum for lineup/trade questions.

Chris Wesseling said...

Thanks, starred.

I would not do that trade. First of all, T.O. is a difference maker, and you'd practically be giving him away. Addai is more of a sure thing than Grant, but you already have Westbrook & Barber.

I generally try to make trades that strengthen my starting lineup, not weaken it. I think you'd be drastically weakening your lineup by losing T.O.

Chris Wesseling said...

sterjs,

It's an interesting discussion, but what gets lost in all of that talk about formulas and numeric predictions is watching the players play. The numeric information we have on these guys coming out of college is simply too incomplete and unreliable for my tastes.

I feel much better about gauging a player by the early reactions from coaches, teammates, and scribes and then seeing how they fare in the eye test.

I use statistical analysis too, but I'm not comfortable enough yet with the accuracy to rely too much on it.

It's the same dichotomy as baseball. If you rely on solely on stats, you're going to be at a severe disadvantage. If you rely solely on the eye test, ditto. I try to get my hands on as much info as possible and combine that with news updates and whatever game watching I can do.

Anonymous said...

RE: Turner

I guess I'm just confused what the difference is between a guy like Turner and LJ. Is it that LJ is proven? Because he was proven with a lot different team than the one he's saddled with now. Supporting cast? Is Atlanta worse? Despite being a rookie, I'd much rather have Matt Ryan leading my offense than Brodie Croyle. They both play in divisions with only 1 good defense.Does Norwood taking carries worry you? I can't imagine he'll be that big of a factor, especially since he wasn't with a far inferior runner in Dunn.

Perhaps maybe the problem is that LJ is too high?

Chris Wesseling said...

That Turner vs. LJ comparison doesn't compute. Obviously LJ doesn't have a Norwood, but that's hardly the biggest difference.

The passing game has been a huge factor with LJ, and Turner never catches the ball. That's not a small point with me. Receiving yards is often the difference between a true klunker and just an off game. You can still win your week if LJ is throwing up 40 receiving yards to go with a bad rushing game. What if Turner (or even just the Falcons offense) has an off day rushing? Ooooof!

Re: the proven thing. I don't get into arguments about "proven" very often b/c it's the nature of the game in dynasty leagues that we have to anticipate. If we wait until somebody proves themselves, then we're behind the 8-ball (and I had the same debate on the other side of Michael Turner last year when a guy told me I had him too high b/c he wasn't proven). But the fact remains that we know LJ can be a stud with even a modicum of help on offense, whereas we know the data on backup RBs going to starting jobs on a new is overwhelmingly negative.

Turner would have to be an extreme outlier to become a fantasy stud. I'm not saying it's not possible, but I am saying I question it happening on a poor offensive team with a RB who isn't a pass catcher at all.

And I would bet that I actually have LJ lower than most dynasty rankers.

Bottom line: I think LJ is better than Turner.

Chris Wesseling said...

Looks like you got me on Michael Turner . . . although this Lions defense is an absolute joke. Turner is running through them and around them like they're not even there.

He looks good.