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This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Fantasy Football Q & A with Twinkilling.com

With draft-day fast approaching for many leagues, my friend Brad Spieser over at twinkilling.com suggested doing a fantasy football Q & A. Brad is a bit a bit of a sports savant, so he's my go-to guy for all things Cincinnati Bengals and college football/basketball. We blindly sent each other a list of questions over the weekend, and here is the aftermath of my questions to Brad.

1. Sons of the Tundra: Who is a better bet for fantasy production in 2008: Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown?

Twinkilling: I guess I'll say Ricky, although neither will be on any of my fantasy teams. The timeliness of Brown's injury (late October) combined with the shaky history of RBs having bounce-back years the following season is enough to keep me away. Plus, Ricky Williams is the strangest human alive, and it would somehow be fitting if he had a Curtis Martin-in-2004-type season. Ricky Williams will be one of the all-time what-ifs for me.

2. Sons of the Tundra: You're a diehard Bengals fan, so tell me how the backfield will play out this season betweeen Chris Perry, Rudi Johnson, and Kenny Watson.

Twinkilling: Chris Perry has been one of the few bright spots of Bengals camp, but I think Bengals fans are getting a little too excited. Sure, he's been running hard, and he's still light on his feet, but I'm not seeing an impressive burst. This isn't to say he won't have a solid season--his reception totals will make him valuable--but I'm a little more realistic about a guy who is perpetually injured.

3. Sons of the Tundra: Could Chris Johnson be the best of the rookie RBs?

Twinkilling: Might be. I'm on record as saying this could become the best RB class in NFL history. I love all the first round guys, and some of the second-rounders, as well. Matt Forte and Kevin Smith were placed in plum situations, but it doesn't mean they can't play - they can. I expect both to be solid contributors from day one. I would have no qualms about either being my RB2 in redraft leagues this year. As for Chris Johnson...he's a special athlete, and aside from Calvin Johnson, maybe the most fun to player to watch on NFL Network's game replays this month. Michael Bennett and Tatum Bell were both incredibly fast coming into the league, like Chris Johnson, but neither had the feet to be anything more than an occasional homerun hitter; if the seam wasn't there, you could forget about either making a big play. Chris Johnson has the sharp-cutting ability to lead the league in 50-yard+ runs (although I'm sure Adrian Peterson has a stranglehold on that category for the next three years or so.) It's safe to say I'm excited for the Chris Johnson era. If I had to pick the best, though, I'd probably go with Jonathan Stewart, with Johnson, McFadden, Mendenhall, etc., fighting for the No. 2 spot. And just so you don't think I'm backing off, I still love Felix Jones...he will make very big plays for the Cowboys before the end of the season.

4. Sons of the Tundra: How close is Calvin Johnson to becoming the new Randy Moss (as Roy Williams alluded to several days ago)? Can Detroit have a legitimately good passing offense with Kitna at the helm?

Twinkilling: I keep hearing Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson comparisons, but I have a better one: Calvin Johnson is a Randy Moss/Terrell Owens hybrid. He has the vertical leap of Moss with the power of Owens. Now, Moss is the greatest threat to ever play the position, so I won't suggest Calvin Johnson is in any way better, but he can do everything that Moss could as a young'n. The problem is that Moss had two strong-armed QBs, Cunningham and Culpepper, heaving the ball downfield, whereas Johnson has Kitna. Big difference. As for the Owens comparison, Johnson has better hands than Owens, but is nowhere near the threat after the catch. That might be the most underrated aspect of T.O.'s game: his ability to make an 80-yard touchdown out of a 2-yard catch. It's one thing if little guys like Steve Smith or Santana Moss make something out of nothing, but for a monster like Owens to attempt to score every time he touches the ball...that's pretty rare. (Note: Thanks to Borgs (circa '99) for pointing out that Owens tries to score every time he touches the ball)

5. Sons of the Tundra: How will the Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn situation play out by early 2009?

Twinkilling: I'm a Derek Anderson guy. He threw 29 TDs in his first year as a starter and led the Browns to a 10-6 record. Yeah, he was picked off 19 times, and yeah, he faded down the stretch. But, he's still a pretty good quarterback. However, I'm wondering if he might be a Jake Delhomme-type his whole career - a guy who makes you too nervous with his careless decisions in big moments...someone you can't completely trust. (Note: It should be mentioned that you did compare Anderson with Jeff Blake. It should also be mentioned that I wanted to hang myself for not thinking of it first.)

[Note from Sons of the Tundra: I also came up with the Delhomme / Derek Anderson comparison way back in last November or so . . . months before I changed it to Jeff Blake. I am now predicting his career to fall in line somewhere between Delhomme and Blake.]

As for Quinn, I think he's the guy in '09. He's someone who should be targeted in dynasty leagues yesterday. Worst case scenario involves Quinn being moved and immediately being named the starter. But I'm guessing he'll be the starter in Cleveland. He's proven not to be a bust (if you can do such a thing in seven preseason games and regular season mop-up duty), and he's far more polished than Quinn. He seems to be liked by his teammates, too (the anti-Charlie Frye, if you will). I always labeled him a choker at Notre Dame, but on second glance he wasn't surrounded with much talent (save for Samrdzija, who probably has a lot of sex, but anyway).

6. Sons of the Tundra: Three young quarterbacks who have yet to make "the leap" are Aaron Rodgers, Phil Rivers, and Matt Leinart. Who is your pick and why?

Twinkilling: This question was obviously sent before Leinart was moved to No. 2 on Arizona's depth chart, thus making it easier to answer. Rivers is a bit of a psycho, but he showed me a ton in the postseason. I wouldn't be surprised if he won a Super Bowl in his career (and maybe even without Tomlinson), BUT...I'm going with Rodgers, at least as a fantasy QB. He has good young weapons around him, and IF he can get off to a hot start, you're looking at a top ten fantasy QB right away. I'm not sure Rivers will ever crack that list.

7. Sons of the Tundra: Does Drew Stanton have a chance to be a legit starting QB in the NFL?

Twinkilling: The short answer is yes. But that's not what you're looking for. Drew Stanton doesn't know it, but he and I have had a rocky relationship. The first time I heard about him was when he was a freshman, covering punts for Michigan State - that's the kind of athlete he is. He came on like wildfire during his sophomore year and I pronounced the Spartans to be a big deal in college football over the next few years. To me, he was a can't miss superstar - a good thrower and a great runner. And then he never got better. I'm still baffled by it. He was so shaky at the end of his run at MSU that I wasn't so sure he'd be anything but a late round draft pick. But the Lions, and others, saw what I did a few years prior, and all of the sudden he was an early second round prospect. Clearly, he has the ability, but that's never enough with QBs. The guess here is that he never makes an impact, but it's not because of a lack of talent.

8. Sons of the Tundra: Is Joseph Addai an annual Top-5 dynasty RB stud, or is he a guy who will receive 300 touches per year max?

Twinkilling: Hard to say, for a couple of reasons. First, he plays for the scoring machine that is the Indianapolis Colts - that skews everything. Second, they've never really needed him to be a true workhorse, so it's kind of difficult to assess. Regardless, should he be taken higher than Peterson, Tomlinson or Stevie Jackson? Of course not? Gore, Jones-Drew or Westbrook? Probably not, but now you're dealing with preference. I'd put him in the class with Lynch and Barber, with some of the rookies on their way by the end of the season.

9. Sons of the Tundra: How will the Willis McGahee / Ray Rice situation play out in Baltimore?

Twinkilling: As you know, I'm not a big Ray Rice fan. But you can't argue with his preseason results or the praise coming out of Ravens camp. If McGahee is healthy, though, I can't see Rice getting more than about 120 carries this year. Not that I'm a McGahee guy, either...

10. Sons of the Tundra: How will Michael Turner do in Atlanta considering his poor O-Line, his conspicuous absence in the passing game, and the presence of Jerious Norwood?

Twinkilling: Before slurping Turner, let me axe you a question regarding Jerious Montreal Norwood? Why has he never been given a chance to handle a bigger workload? In two years he has 242 combined carries and receptions...and he's gained over 1,600 yards. Seems to me Norwood deserves more touches.

[Sons of the Tundra: This answer is easy -- because he's not a high workload running back. If you mean: why hasn't he gotten slightly more work in Atlanta considering old man Warrick Dunn was blocking his path, then I agree with you -- he should have gotten a bit more of Warrick Dunn's workload. If you mean: why hasn't he been given a shot to be "The Man," then the answer is completely different. It's because he can't be The Man. Falcons coaches have been unanimous in this sentiment, as have guys like Brian Baldinger and Tony Boselli who cover the Falcons games weekly: he doesn't have the build to hold up to those carries, he can't run inside, and he's not durable enough. And as I said his rookie year: he's the ideal change of pace back, but there's just no way he could sustain a rushing attack . . . and NFL offenses need a sustained rushing attack to win games.]

As for Turner, you're right, he doesn't catch the ball, but that could change, I suppose (Corey Dillon once had a 43-catch season). Regardless, he has the speed/power of a really good player. I see him in the 1,300 yards, 10 TD range. (By the way, I have an odd feeling the Falcons are going to be more competitive than expected.)

11. Sons of the Tundra: Tell me about Seahawks rookie RB Justin Forsett.

Twinkilling: Justin Forsett is good. Justin Forsett is capable of being a productive NFL back. The problem? He's not on a short list of mammals with "good" and "capable" on their resumes. I might be overstating this, who knows, but I believe their are around 75-100 people on this planet who could run for 1,100 yards and 8 TDs for an NFL team this fall. Look at what happened with Ryan Grant last year. He needed fifteen different breaks before being handed the keys. Look at Terrell Davis: He was mostly a fullback at Georgia before becoming the best back in the league. There are probably capable Division I graduates who never got out of the doghouse, and subsequently never got their chance to impress scouts. Think, do you remember Priest Holmes at Texas? Maybe, but probably not. He was incredibly lucky to land where he did, when he did. That's not to say that every RB drafted is capable of becoming a solid back, but the number is higher than you'd think. But Forsett? He's capable. He slipped to the seventh round for some reason, but that doesn't mean he can't play. He was really good from day one at Cal, and often ripped off long runs. Seattle was a great landing place for him and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he impresses when given the chance.

12. Sons of the Tundra: Considering Brandon Marshall's potential to go Chris Henry on us at a moment's notice, would you invest heavily in him in dynasty leagues?

Twinkilling: Heavily? No. But I'm the resident [former Reds, current Nationals GM] Jim Bowden, and when I see a five-tooler like Marshall available for fifty cents on the dollar, well, I just can't help myself.

13. Sons of the Tundra: T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a free agent after the season, and the Bengals are notoriously tight-fisted. Will Housh be a Bengal in 2009?

Twinkilling: Things are getting late-90's messy in Bengals World. And Houshmandzadeh is a bright guy. So he might just take the bigger payday (and the Alvin Harper/Peerless Price drop in production), but maybe not. Palmer targets him about 2,275 times per game--especially in the red zone--so that might be too much to pass up. If I had to place odds on the situation, I'd say it's 60/40 Houshmandzadeh stays in Cincinnati. And 100/0 he blows his brains out by 2012.

14. Sons of the Tundra: Can Roddy White repeat?

Twinkilling: I say yes. He's a former first round pick who was reeking of bust until early last year. The fact that he put it together tells me he wasn't content to cash his check and go through the motions. As previously stated, I like what's going on in Atlanta, and I see no reason why White can't remain a top 20 WR for the next half decade or more. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think he's the anti-Germane Crowell (or is it the anti-Drew Bennett?).

15. Sons of the Tundra: What's up with the young Virginia Tech WRs and their ricidulous preseason production?

Twinkilling: This Eddie Royal thing baffles me. I saw him as a fast guy and nothing else. As for Morgan, I always liked him more, but I wasn't gaga over him. As Lee Evans can tell you, it's kind of important to have an accurate QB trowing to you. At Virginia Tech, there is no such thing.

16. Sons of the Tundra: Which second year WR do you like best: Robert Meachem, Ted Ginn Jr, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, or James Jones?

Twinilling: Robert Meachem. Every time I'm asked for a fantasy tip, which is often, I always tell people to target Meachem late in redraft leagues. He's talented, he dedicated himself this offseason to get in shape and he's in a great offense. He's a starter in New Orleans by year's end.

17. Sons of the Tundra: Which troublesome vet do you like best: Jerry Porter, Antonio Bryant, Javon Walker, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch?

Twinkilling: Is that like asking someone would they rather be shot in the neck or eaten by a jaguar shark? I suppose Porter, based on my similarities to Jim Bowden. And I suppose Bryant's a decent late-round flier. Stay away from the other two.

18. Sons of the Tundra: What do you predict for San Fran's offense in '08?

Twinkilling: Sadly, Martz is no longer bullet proof. Far from it. Kitna threw for a billion yards last year and he was nobody you'd ever want to consistently start on your fantasy team. And while I'm pretty sure JT O'Sullivan is nothing special, you never know. Aside from kickers, quarterbacks often travel the strangest road to the starting lineup. So...although it doesn't look good that O'Sullivan has been a member of a million different franchises, it doesn't mean everything. If he has a couple decent games from the beginning, and if Frank Gore resemble his 2006 self, O'Sullivan has a shot to post respectable numbers. O'Sullivan might be terrible, but he hasn't proven it yet. We'll find out soon. My guess: All three QBs play and the 49ers struggle to win six games. And Frank Gore is a beast in spite of lousy QB play.

Tags: Fantasy Football Q & A, twinkilling


thorny said...

I have to say Chris, you are bang on in your assessments. You should be getting paid large. I love your stuff, it's the best fantasy stuff out there. Keep up the good work!!

Chris Wesseling said...


Thanks for the kinds words. You rock!

Stop by and comment any time.