RUNNING BACKS
TIER ONE
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 100
Simply the most talented player on the field [click here].
2. Steven Jackson, STL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 98
I won't start worrying about the holdout until mid-August at the earliest.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 97
Have we seen the last of the truly dominant LT2? He may bounce back with a vengeance after all the flack he took for the Pats game, but it's tough to rank him higher at the crucial RB age of 29.
4. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 94
Money in PPR leagues and still underrated, but injuries are a constant concern; is this offseason the time to flip him for a younger talent before it's too late?
5. Frank Gore, SF | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 93
Talented, well-rounded, great job security, and in line to haul in a ton of receptions in Martz' offense which saw Marshall Faulk take his game to the next level.
TIER TWO
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 87
Hit-and-run incident shouldn't affect his '08 value.
7. #Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 87
One of the best players in the NFL and averages a TD per game even in limited touches; his time for Westbrook-like domination is coming like a freight train.
8. Joseph Addai, IND | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 86
Safe call in the Colts offense, but is 300 touches per year his limit?
9. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 81
Something is askew here: his owners are constantly trying to deal him, but they also consider him an elite back. The problem is he's not quite the ideal RB1 that dynasty leaguers want to rely on, but it's increasingly difficult to trade him for an upgrade.
10. Marion Barber III, DAL | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 79
New contract gives him much-needed security, but he's still going to be sharing the load with Felix Jones. Expect the high TD, lower yardage totals to continue.
TIER THREE
11. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 21.0 | Value Score: 73
On one hand, you've got a RB with laughably skinny chicken legs to go with a worrisome BMI, a checkered off the field college history, and what Pro Football Prospectus calls questionable pass-catching ability. On the other hand, you have a tremendous athlete with a truly versatile skill-set, a prodigious college career, and a playmaker's explosiveness and blazing speed. He's not Adrian Peterson, but he certainly makes for an intriguing roll of the dice.
12. Chris Johnson, TEN | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 73
See here for explanation of high ranking.
13. Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 71
We have to accept the fact that he's not the dynamic homerun hitter he was hyped to be, but he's still gold in PPR leagues and was used at the goal-line while Deuce was injured.
14. Ryan Grant, GB | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 71
The Packers love his game, so there's no worry about job security any time soon; how will Favre's exit affect the production of the running game?
15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 21.5 | Value Score: 70
Hey, Adrian Peterson starting out returning kickoffs too. Stewart's draft spot and running style leave him as the obvious feature back, but it remains to be seen how annoying D-Willy's presence will be. Pro Football Prospectus believes Williams will be the starter, but the Panthers didn't draft Stewart twelfth overall and change to a smash-mouth attack just to leave him on the bench.
16. Larry Johnson, KC | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 68
With the dwindling YPC, the 400+ carry season of '06, the foot injury, the perdition of what was once possibly the best O-Line in NFL history, and now a punchless Croyle-led offense, L.J. simply has too much going against him to return to '05-'06 form. Those days are gone.
TIER FOUR
17. Laurence Maroney, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 62
It will be interesting to see if the Pats trust Maroney in short yardage after his success there late in the season; Maroney is a talented back in a great offense, but there are still legit concerns about his usage patterns in that offense.
18. #Willis McGahee, BAL | Age: 26.9 | Value Score: 60
Drafting of Ray Rice could be more troublesome than McGahee owners want to admit. An awful O-Line and injury questions give further reason for concern.
19. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT | Age: 21.2 | Value Score: 59
Goes to a rock-solid organization with an increasingly explosive offense, but how long until he takes a full load? How long until he's a confident weekly play in your fantasy lineup?
20. #Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 58
Here's the crux of the problem: even with the advances of modern medical technology, no RB in history has returned as the same back immediately after ACL surgery. If Brown won't be truly himself again until '09, what's his dynasty value? Can he be counted on as a fantasy starter at all in '08? The answer to that last question is going to count for a lot in determining his value.
21. Jamal Lewis, CLE | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 54
Too many dynasty owners are writing off a talented back who is playing very well with fresh legs6 there aren't too many RBs around the league with this much job security and a guaranteed prominent role in a highly productive offense. Frankly, I probably have him too low as opposed to too high.
22. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 54
Will be the Thunder to Norwood's Lightning in ATL, meaning Turner will get the early down and short-yardage work but will likely lose some value in the passing game. Will he find the end zone enough to make up for Norwood's production drain?
TIER FIVE
23. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 46
He will always face questions about staying healthy and being a bit of a novelty act, and now he has to contend with an Ahmad Bradshaw problem. Would a contract extension really clear anything up about his value?
24. Ray Rice, BAL | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 45
Willis McGahee better stay healthy if he knows what's good for him. In the meantime, Rice will try to carve out a poor man's MJD role for himself in the Ravens offense.
25. Matt Forte, CHI | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 44
Are you really worried about Cedric Benson? Well then, stop that. Forte has a plum opportunity with only Cedric to beat out. Update 7/17/08: I still believe Kevin Jones is likely to open the season on the PUP list.
26. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 42
arly favorite to nail down the starting job despite what you may hear about Brian Calhoun or Tatum Bell.
27. Selvin Young, DEN | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 41
Talented, explosive, and well-liked by his head coach, but how consistent will the carries be? Looks like the obvious starter in Denver now that Henry has been released.
28. DeAngelo Williams, CAR | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 40
A former first-round pick himself, he's obviously not ready to just hand the job to Jonathan Stewart.
29. Felix Jones, DAL | Age: 21.3 | Value Score: 38
Barber's contract extension and Jones' skill-set combine to leave him as a part-time back for the foreseeable future. He's going to have to catch a lot of passes and break quite a few big plays to have startable value any time soon.
TIER SIX
30. Ricky Williams, MIA | Age: 31.3 | Value Score: 31
Could be a good story here if Brown is slow to return to full health; after a couple of seasons away from football, Ricky should have fresh legs and is one of the few backups who can carry a full load if needed.
31. Willie Parker, PIT | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 30
When you lose goal-line carries & 3rd down work, you lose a hefty portion of your fantasy value; I like FWP, but I've always sensed that the Steelers don't trust him to be a true workhorse. Mendenhall's addition may leaves him virtually unstartable and certainly unreliable.
32. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 29
Like Willie Parker a couple of years ago, Thomas could capitalize on a huge Week 17 game to carve out a prominent role in his team's offense especially if Deuce's microfracture right knee and ACL left knee hold him back.
33. Tim Hightower, ARI | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 28
It remains to be seen how talented he is, but he's landed in a great spot for instant opportunity. Hightower must impress this season, or the Cards will address the position with a higher pick or free agent next offseason.
34. Chris Perry, CIN | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 27
As brittle as brittle can be, and likely lost more than a step by now, but there's a window of opportunity in Cincy's backfield.
35. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 27
I was eyeballing his game for weaknesses throughout the playoffs, but I didn't find any glaring ones; he may not be able to carry a full load, but the question is moot with Jacobs in front of him.
36. Earnest Graham, TB | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 26
Most of his value is going to be tied up in the 2008 season with the Bucs showing a definite interest in finding another reliable RB by hook or by crook; he can help you win now, but there's just not enough long-range value here . . . as evidenced by his meager contract extension.
37. Thomas Jones, NYJ | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 26
Aging mediocrity could have a nice bounceback season with Favre on board and an improved O-Line, but don't go overboard paying for him.
38. LenDale White, TEN | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 25
Let's quit jerking around here: the seeping leak in LenDale's value this offseason has been gashed open by Chris Johnson since training camp started.
TIER SEVEN
39. Michael Bush, OAK | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 18
Now that he's healthy, can he stay healthy? If so, carving out a role as the thunder to McFadden's lightning is a possibility.
40. Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 16
Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love.
41. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 15
Lo0oks like a third down back to me. He may be interesting as a Leon Washington type, but I don't see him ever taking the job in Houston and making it valuable.
42. Edgerrin James, ARI | Age: 30.1 | Value Score: 15
The cliff is approaching fast; his goal-line & passing game production have already been taken away while his workload and injury work against him.
43. Mike Hart, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 12
Major sleeper if he can get past Dominic Rhodes. Well-rounded runner could be one injury away from the Colts starting job.
44. #Ryan Torain, DEN | Age: 22.1 | Value Score: 11
RB with an injury-history is out 2-3 months with a fractured elbow and could be a candidate for I.R.
45. Chester Taylor, MIN | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 10
As valuable of a pure backup as any RB in the league, Taylor is still most valuable to Adrian Peterson owners; won't be a free agent until after the '09 season when he'll be almost 31-years-old.
46. Maurice Morris, SEA | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 10
47. Julius Jones, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 10
Seahawks announce intention to use a committee attack in the backfield; but Jones will have a chance to run with the job if he impresses early in the season.
48. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 9
As expected, Norwood won't be given an opportunity to shoulder the load in ATL; how valuable can be with limited touches?
49. Jamaal Charles, KC | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 9
A kick returner and role player for as long as LJ stays healthy and productive.
50. #Rudi Johnson, CIN | Age: 28.9 | Value Score: 8
Looking more and more like he'll have his job back full-time to open the season, but this could be more of a committee approach than previous seasons. Nagging hamstring is cause for concern.
TIER EIGHT
51. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 7
A homerun hitter, but just not physical enough to ever be more than a part-timer; his only hope for value is to catch enough passes to be useful in PPR leagues.
52. Brandon Jackson, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7
Jackson owners who drafted him with a high rookie pick want to believe he could eventually win the job from Grant, but it's just not going to happen. Jackson is buried behind Grant, and he'll be lucky to get regular 3rd down duty.
53. Fred Taylor, JAX | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 6
Has as much value as a 32-year-old, part-timer without goal-line and passing game opportunities can possibly have.
54. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 6
What are the chances he stays healthy and holds off all of the competition for his job throughout the whole season? Sell (relatively) high if it's not too late; McFadden to the Raiders at #4 flattens his value.
55. Jalen Parmele, MIA | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 6
Talented rookie has only an injury-prone starter and flaky backup in front him.
56. Andre Hall, DEN | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 6
Any RB in DEN could get a shot, but he's definitely 3rd on the depth chart even before April's draft; didn't ingratiate himself to his coach by getting arrested last month.
57. Chris Taylor, HOU | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 6
Longshot, but the coaching staff seems high on him.
58. Derrick Ward, NYG | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 5
Looks like injury history scared off potential suitors, so he re-signs with Giants which dampens his value.
59. Ladell Betts, WAS | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 5
Now more insurance for Portis as opposed to a backfield complement; startable in the event of a Portis injury but valueless in the meantime.
60. Lorenzo Booker, PHI | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 5
Only hope for value is as a flex player in PPR leagues. Can he catch enough passes to make himself relevant?
TIER NINE
61. #Chris Brown, HOU | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 4
Picked a good situation with Texans' zone blocking scheme and no dominant RB in front of him, but Brown just can't be relied on as more than a committee back.
62. LaMont Jordan, NE | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 4
Signs with Pats, but role unknown. Could eat into Maroney's production or take over passing down work.
63. Fred Jackson, BUF | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 4
Coaching staff is high on him, but he's more of a change of pace/pure backup as opposed to a guy with an opportunity.
64. #Ahman Green, HOU | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 4
Mistakenly regarded as washed up when he should more accurately be portrayed as a RB who can still play and play well but can't stay healthy under a full workload at this stage of his career.
65. [#]Cadillac Williams, TB | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 4
We've heard everything from "career's over" to "suiting up by week one." The most like scenario is that he'll start the season on the PUP list and will be a shadow of his former self once he does return . . . and truth be told his former self wasn't all that hot to begin with.
66. Kenny Watson, CIN | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 4
Too pedestrian to grab hold of the starting RB job and run with it, but a repeat of his effective '07 season is possible if no other RB steps up for the Bengals.
67. Sammy Morris, NE | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 3
Was a good fit in New England's offense, but Maroney stepped up when Morris was out with his sternum/clavicle injury; will he keep the short-yardage/goal-line work?
68. Tashard Choice, DAL | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 3
Barber's new long-term deal renders Choice to roster fodder for a couple of years.
69. Justin Forsett, SEA | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 3
70. #Deuce McAllister, NO | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 3
Wait, ACL surgery on his left knee and microfracture surgery on his formerly reconstructed right knee? Now that's a horse of a different color for a 30-year-old RB. Why weren't we informed of this microfracture surgery? I can't envision a scenario where Deuce is not washed up at this point.
71. Michael Bennett, TB | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 3
TIER TEN
72. Jacob Hester, SD | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 2
73. Darren Sproles, SD | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
Explosive. Could find fantasy value as a receiving weapon out of the backfield if the Chargers made it a point to get the ball to him, but his slight build will likely keep him from handling the ball enough to make a sizable fantasy impact.
74. Antonio Pittman, STL | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 2
More of a pure backup than Brian Leonard at this point.
75. Jerome Harrison, CLE | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 2
76. Gary Russell, PIT | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 2
77. Xavier Omon, BUF | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 2
78. Tony Hunt, PHI | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 2
Could become the short-yardage back in Philly, but not likely to ever be more than one half of a time share backfield.
79. Dominic Rhodes, IND | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 2
Back in Indy, but will he get the benefit of the doubt over rookie Hart?
80. Tatum Bell, DET | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 2
Currently the starting RB in Detroit, but that may change before long; didn't stop Tatum from predicting 1,300 yards & 15 TDs for himself this season.
81. Cedric Benson, UFA | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 2
Benson will be expensive to cut, but his latest drunk driving charge gives GM Angelo a convenient out that allows him to save face on Benson's missing talent.
82. DeShaun Foster, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2
Signed a meager contract to head West as Frank Gore's backup; don't look for a heavy role in the offense unless Gore gets injured.
83. Adrian Peterson, CHI | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 2
ight now he's the most effective RB in Chicago, but will likely go back to his former role when new talent is added in the draft.
84. Kolby Smith, KC | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 2
Was decent in a 5-game trial at the end of the season, but he's limited to backup duty going forward.
85. Dwayne Wright, BUF | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
86. Warrick Dunn, TB | Age: 33.7 | Value Score: 2
Ill-suited to 3rd down work at this point in his career, but that's where he's going to play.
87. Aaron Stecker, NO | Age: 32.8 | Value Score: 2
88. Michael Pittman, DEN | Age: 33.1 | Value Score: 2
TIER ELEVEN
89. J.J. Arrington, ARI | Age: 25.6 | Value Score: 1
Appears the Cardinals don't see him as anything more than a 3rd down back
90. Musa Smith, NYJ | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1
Not without talent, but too unreliable due to injury history; would have to land in the ideal situation to merit a look beyond stash option.
91. Jesse Chatman, NYJ | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 1
92. Mewelde Moore, PIT | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1
A weapon in the passing game and likely to take over punt-return duties; has a track record of impressive performance in small doses but gets nicked up easily.
93. Brian Calhoun, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1
94. #Michael Robinson, SF | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1
95. Vernand Morency, GB | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 1
Ceiling is 3rd down back.
96. Correll Buckhalter, PHI | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1
97. Thomas Brown, ATL | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 1
98. Marcus Thomas, SD | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 1
99. Danny Ware, NYG | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 1
100. Chauncy Washington, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 1
101. #Kenny Irons, UFA | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 1
There's definitely a window of opportunity in Cincinnati's backfield right now, but it's going to tough for Irons to exploit it at less than 100% in the year following ACL surgery.
102. Travis Henry, UFA | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 1
Released by Broncos and unlikely to nail down a starting job the rest of his career.
103. Kenton Keith, IND | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 1
104. Ryan Moats, PHI | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 1
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Running Back Rankings: August 14, 2008
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13 comments:
Wow, I thought intelligent rankings such as this would have garnered at least a few comments already.
Let's delve a little deeper into the question of how to properly value Ronnie Brown in a dynasty/keeper league.
I think the first question that needs to be answered is this: Is Ricky Williams a free agent next year?
If so, that bodes extremely well for Brown, as I can only imagine that Williams will be looking for one last--albeit probably small, but nonetheless--payday, and that's not coming from the Dolphins w/out another catastrophic injury to Brown.
If I knew that there is a real possibility that Brown would be unchallenged for carries in 2009, I would rank him around #25 in terms of production this year, with the possibility for an immense payback in 2009.
But ya gotta go into this year with low expectations, with Brown as your RB3 or 4, if at all possible. The production is just not going to be there this year due to injury and Williams' presence.
You won't find a bigger R. Brown fan than I, I assure you, but torn ACLs are torn ACLs.
Can anyone answer/offer thoughts on the question above?
Thanks for the compliment. Much appreciated.
I don't know why I don't get comments. I know a big reason is the blog format doesn't facilitate conversation like a message board; on the other hand, I do get emails, PMs on the FBG board, and messages on the chat box, so it's not like people aren't afraid to discuss. They just don't like leaving comments for some reason.
I've said this before, but it bears repeateding: from the time I've started these rankings about 3 years ago, no player has given me more trouble than Ronnie Brown. I've been much higher on him than most people, and he made me look awfully good for a half a season last year when I was filleted for sticking by ranking above Willie Parker going into last season.
I like Ronnie Brown a lot, but I loathe RBs coming off of ACL injuries . . . and his situation is worse than most with a rejuvenated Ricky in line to take on a very big role this season.
I agree with you that the most important question is whether Ricky will be back again next year. He is a free agent after the season, but I wouldn't be so quick to write off a return to the Dolphins next season. Ricky is a different kind of person than most (all?) football players . . . his motivations and thought-processes are definitely different. Parcells and Sparano love him, and he's found a new lease on life with this Dolphins group. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the parties involved worked out a mutually beneficial agreement that keeps him Miami.
Ultimately, it's probably too soon to call either way.
So what do you think of Brown's value? Should it be higher, or should it be lower?
I hear ya on Brown giving you fits ranking/projection-wise, he's been a nightmare to rank for the last 4 years.
I play in a competitive keeper league where you can keep players for a maximum of 3 years.
I drafted R. Brown in the 3rd round of our 2005 draft, as I was enamored with his complete set of skills; haven't seen such a complete back come out of the draft in a while. When I did draft him in '05, I NEVER thought I'd still be discussing Ricky Williams' impact on Brown's value in 2008!
I like your take on Ricky's future with the Dolphins--you're right, he doesn't share the same mindsets of other players, and I could see him re-signing for cheaper as a show of gratitude (wow, that almost makes him sound like a good guy!).
But Brown's immense talent is--in my opinion, and sounds like yours, too--undeniable. Finishes runs better than almost anyone in the League, really good receiver, has plenty of speed, and is a great pass protector--an often overlooked skill for fantasy RBs--that keeps him on the field in all situations.
But ultimately, I agree with your #19 ranking of Brown. While I think he'll have a hard time living all the way up to that ranking in '08, it'd be foolish to rank him any lower based on what he can do in '09 and beyond.
I like your ranking of Chris Johnson. Guy's got some serious football speed in addition to his impressive timed speed. Seems to run bigger than his size, too.
I want to select him this year, but am having a hard time knowing where to pick him, and was wondering if you could help.
Here's my problem:
My 3 keepers are Marion Barber, Ryan Grant and Calvin Johnson; I've traded-up to the third pick in the 1st, so I'm assured of either Westbrook or S. Jackson.
This is a big year for our league, as it's a "must release year" for a lot of top guys, like L.T., S. Jackson, B. Westbrook, T. Owens, W. McGahee, C. Portis, L.J., as they've all been kept the max of three years.
I've traded-up into the 1st pick of the third round, and I've also traded-up to the 1st pick in the 2nd round.
At the first pick in 2nd, I'm fairly certain the following will be available:
T. Owens, A. Johnson, L. Fitzgerald, J. Stewart, P. Manning, R. Brown, etc.
My question is this:
Do you think Chris Johnson is good enough to select at the beginning of the 2nd?
I have a hard time thinking he's good enough to pass-up T.O., but RBs are gold.
I'm just wondering if he'll get enough opportunities?
I don't know about that in a 3-player keeper league. I'd have to go with T.O., Andre Johnson, or Fitz there.
You've got me excited (no homo) about Chris Johnson. I kind of wrote him off when I started doing my original draft prep. Now, I think he could be the best of the rookies. However, I don;t know if I should take him over the other rookies or hope he is there in round 2. We have a deep keeper league where we can keep up to 5 players plus a rookie if we surrender our top 3 picks so almost all starting running backs are kept from year to year and now most WR1s are kept as well. Do you think I should just take him over the other rookies anyway or should I gamble that no one in my league has caught on to his potential? I have been trying to figure this out for a few days now and I could use some insight. thanks.
Why so low on Chris Perry? I know he's injury prone, but he has a great shot at being the Bengals starter this year(I think he might be already) and he has far more potential than many of the guys ahead of him, all the way up to J.Jones and Lendale.
What is the difference between Perry and a guy like Ricky Williams?
Also, while I'm on board this Chris Johnson bandwagon, I have a hard time seeing him(or Bush) ahead of Ryan Grant. Its not me thinking they are overrated, more that Grant is underrated.
mathew,
That's a good question. I, too, believe he could be the best rookie. If you feel like you have to have him, go get him. But I think you should feel fairly comfortable letting him slide a bit. He's still going much later than I'd expect as many aren't as high on him as you or I are.
anon,
Funny, I thought I had Perry waaaay to high . . . I thought there was a good chance I was just getting carried away with one good game in preseason Week 1 while Rudi recovered from a minor hamstring.
Perry is a nice little gamble, but I think Ricky is much more valuable. He is without a doubt much more proven to carry a full load, and in IMO, much more likely to do so if Ronnie Brown is still shaking off the rust. Even if Rudi can't shake the hamstring injury -- which we have no reason to believe will be the case -- Perry would likely split production with Kenny Watson. What's that worth? A part-timer who is as injury-prone as any RB in the league? I just think Ricky has a much better chance for startable fantasy value over the next couple of seasons. And he's a much better player. What has Chris Perry ever done in the NFL except get injured and play on third-downs? Even as a passing game specialist, his rate numbers are pretty disappointing (though he does pass the eye test).
So, I guess bottom line: I like Perry as a dice roll, but I don't think he has anywhere near the chance to help your fantasy team as Ricky Williams does.
Re: Chris Johnson vs. Ryan Grant. I like Johnson's upside as a difference maker. I think he has elite talent. I realize many are going to disagree with the ranking, but I don't mind going out on a limb for special talents.
I expect the Packers offense to take a step back this season, and I have some doubts about how successful the running game will be without Favre around.
I think if you're looking for more of a traditional sure-thing workhorse back in dynasty leagues, Grant would be your guy. I'd just prefer to swing for the fences with Johnson.
Re: Perry
Yeah, maybe I was reaching a little bit limping up with Ricky, but he seems like a much better option than anyone else in his tier, especially Rudi(who may be cut.)
Rudi and Edge are old and have little upside as they will only lose work from here on in.
Taylor is old and is only valuable if Peterson gets hurt, he'll likely never be a starter again. Hart is basically the same only younger.
Norwood and Charles are buried behind more talented backs with big new contracts and they look like career role players anyway.
Torian may very well never see the field. He has no value in my opinion, he missed his chance, he'll be replaced next year by whatever back Shanny works in then, which is pretty much a lock will be someone that he'll no doubt try to give every chance Torian had before getting hurt.
Which leaves Jones, Perry and Slaton. Jones is just as injury prone as Perry and he's got much more competition in the backfield and is in a much worse offense. Slaton just seems too small to me, and Houston is looking like the new Denver as far as having a here today gone tomorrow philosophy at RB. If anything of these guys are better than Perry its probably Slaton.
Maybe I just see a lot of upside for Perry, but if he can stay healthy(the biggest of ifs) he should be a solid back. A lot of guys get hurt frequently early in their career and then get healthy and produce. Fred Taylor, Garrison Hearst and Charlie Garner come to mind.
RE:Grant
I totally respect your thoughts on Chris Johnson(and applaud you for them) but what about Reggie Bush or even Barber or McFadden. Are all of these guys special talents? I think Grant is in a better situation than any of them. He's in a good offense , he's got nobody else taking carries and he just signed a pretty nice new contract and he seemed to play his best against the best competition(Vikings and Seahawks last year)on top of all that he's only 25 and has almost no mileage.
Well, he's up there now after the Bengals tentative announcement that Perry is the starter . . . at least until Rudi is healthy. I still don't have much confidence in Perry staying healthy, but he is an interesting dice roll.
I'd say I disagree with you on Torian, but I do agree on Norwood, Charles, and Taylor. Slaton looks like a 3rd down back to me . . . but I give him a little extra value for opportunity in Houston.
Re: Grant. I'd rather have Barber for the Cowboys offense, his TD potential, and his history. I think the Packers have great offensive talent, but I'm far from sold on them having a great offense. Their post-Favre unit worries me a bit.
I could definitely see being higher on Grant than Bush . . . in fact, it would be silly not to be in a non-PPR. But if you're in a PPR, I think Bush may be the pick over Grant.
McFadden is another swing for the fences type. I'd rather go with his potential than Grant's package.
Well, had my keeper draft this past Sunday:
1.3: B. Westbrook
2.1: T. Owens
3.1: S. Smith
4.4: Chris Johnson
6.9: D. Garrard
Roster:
QB1: Garrard
QB2: Delhomme
RB1: Westbrook
RB2: Barber III (Keeper)
RB3: Grant (Keeper)
RB4: C. Johnson
WR1: T. Owens
WR2: S. Smith
WR3: Cal. Johnson (Keeper)
Was REALLY THRILLED to land Chris Johnson in the 4th. Couldn't believe it, but I had to choose between Johnson and Ronnie Brown. Took every second of the allotted time.
Did I make the right call? I hope so...
Thanks for ALL the insight this year Chris (and to whomever else helps you maintain this site), this site is WAAAAAAY underrated. You (guys) need more pub!!!!
Starred,
Good to hear from you. Thanks for the props.
That team of your looks very good. Is that 12-owner league? If so, you're gold.
Good to see both Chris and Calvin Johnson on your squad -- the two guys I've been trying to acquire in every league this offseason before they blow up on the league.
Great receiving trio there, and a awesome depth at RB. You're set up.
oh. . . and it's just me here on the blog. I'm a loner, so you'll have to forgive me if I miss a few days here and there on the updates.
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