Chat Box Question = More Chris Johnson Hype

I had a few comments/questions waiting for me when I logged into the Meebo chat box tonight. The most interesting one, of course, involved rookie phenom Chris Johnson.

Q: How do you estimate the carries will be broken up in titans backfield? Lendale- 230/ C.Johnson- 120/ Henry- 45

A: I'll be honest with you -- I dislike projections. I think they lead to an overly conservative approach to preseason prep work and drafts. Gregg Rosenthal and I have been going back and forth on this exact issue all week: Chris Johnson, LenDale White, and their projections. We already have 2 bets on the subject and may soon have a third.

Here's why I don't like projecting the Titans backfield: because nobody knows yet just how good Chris Johnson is. I think there is very little chance that Johnson does NOT become one of the stories of the early NFL season. He's going have well publicized moments where he "arrives" similar to Adrian Peterson last season. He also shares the similarity with Peterson that the people doing projections were overly conservative because projections always reward veterans and past workloads and, by nature, cannot measure the impact of a rookie difference maker. Like Peterson with the Vikes, it's going to be hard to keep Chris Johnson off the field . . . and Chester Taylor is a better player than LenDale White.

Gregg brought up the Fred Taylor / MJD usage comparison in today's rotoworld blurb. That could be a good benchmark, with one exception: LenDale White is not nearly as good as Fred Taylor was last season . . . nor does he have the hard-earned respect of Taylor's 10 seasons in the league. The result is that LenDale could be easier to nudge to the side. Now I'm not saying LenDale will be left out of the game plan, but I am saying that Johnson will have much more of an impact on the offense than LenDale will. The Titans already realize what they have in Chris Johnson. Most of fantasy nation, however, does not yet realize it.

If I had to peg an exact number for projections, I'd use the Jags as a baseline. Probably LenDale at 210 carries, Chris Johnson 180 carries, and Chris Henry negligible. Now that doesn't include receptions, of which I expect Chris Johnson to garner plenty, perhaps 60 or so.

FYI, I just checked out Gregg Rosenthal's AFC Projected Carries article from this afternoon. I'm starting to make some headway on Rotoworld's foot-dragging re: the Johnson/LenDale White issue:

Coach: Jeff Fisher| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 415

In a constantly evolving NFL, it's nice to know we can count on two things from Jeff Fisher, decade after decade: Awesome facial hair and a smashmouth offense. Those trends should continue, especially with another high pick in the backfield and maulers on the line.

LenDale White: 245
Chris Johnson: 145
Chris Henry: 25

With Chris Wesseling leading the way, we have admittedly caught Chris Johnson fever. White was projected for close to 300 carries, but the workload has evened out. Once you factor in receptions, we see White and Johnson having close to the same total yardage. White still remains the heavy favorite, however, to lead the team in carries and touchdowns. We doubt Johnson will be asked to carry the ball 20 times as a rookie. With a nasty offensive line hitting their prime, both backs could excel ala Jacksonville. Both look undervalued.

Gregg is still too conservative, but at least he's listening. It's just that he's yet to wrap his mind around the fact that Chris Johnson will take the league by storm. . . .