Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Quarterback Rankings | August 26, 2008

QUARTERBACKS

TIER ONE

1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 99
With Clark re-signed and Gonzalez ready to step up if Marvin doesn't snap back, Manning's consistency trumps Brady's career year.

2. #Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 96
Remains the NFL's best QB; Moss' return guarantees another great season, but Brady is not going to hit 50 TDs again.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 95
Easily the 3rd best QB in the NFL and may bypass one of the Big Two in the next couple of years. And, yes, I said easily.

4. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 94
T.O.'s contract extension steadies value and maintains 30 TD expectations.

5. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 92
Should be good for a consistent 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs every year for the next few years; Shockey addition adds a nice red zone weapon and improves the overall explosiveness of the offense.

TIER TWO

6. Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 84
Can he bounce all the way back from an extremely disappointing season? Chad is back after bickering with his QB, but Henry is gone and Housh could be on his way out in '09.

7. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 82
Impressive YPA & completion numbers bode very well for future; additions of Clady plus D-Jax and 2nd rounder Eddie Royal help to steady value. Marshall's offseason shenanigans and obvious high knucklehead potential are slightly worrisome.

8. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 82
I've seen guys like Eli Manning & Phil Rivers ranked ahead of him, in which case McNabb is the ideal buy low candidate for dynasty leaguers.

TIER THREE

9. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 67
He's going to have to stay healthy for all 16 games to shake the injury concerns, but there's a lot to like here. The YPA & completion percentage were very promising, so he just needs to find Johnson & Daniels in the end zone more often to take the next step to reliable #1 as opposed to an aspiring Bulger.

10. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 64
Favre's trade leaves Rodgers as the unquestioned starter, but that's going to be some spotlight he's occupying.

11. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 63
A much better QB than commonly believed, but he's not likely to surpass last year's passing quality. If the running game slips from true dominance, does Garrard's production see an uptick from the increased attempts or do the passing lanes start to close with the defense no longer selling out against the run?

12. #Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 62
Deserved a better fate last season after seeing a freakish number of TDs called back due to penalty, drops by a lousy receiving crew, or poor route running/miscommunication. Still has plenty of upside and the possibility of a true break-out season if the light flips on with improved weaponry.

13. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 62
The 64,000 Question: Did the epiphany occur in the last 6 weeks, or was it simply the flip-side of an inconsistent QB hitting a hot streak? I believe the latter, and I can't see how even a true believer can feel comfortable relying on a streaky, inconsistent Eli as a QB1 going forward.

14. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 59
A window to make his mark as the Browns' franchise QB with the addition of Stallworth as a #3 weapon behind Edwards & Winslow; slightly worrisome is that Anderson's 2009 bonus could essentially make his new contract a one-year deal if he doesn't play up to expectations. I was getting a Jake Delhomme vibe from last season, but I'm starting to also pick up on a Jeff Blake similarity. I worry about his stability.

15. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 57
Good news and bad news: The good news is that Rivers finally delivered consistently under pressure once the playoffs started. The bad news is that he showed flashes of David Carr happy feet and lack of arm strength during the season. Even worse, the ACL injury he suffered happened later in the season than Daunte Culpepper's, Carson Palmer's, and Donovan McNabb's . . . all of whom were much better QBs and struggled considerably in their first season back from injury. Why would we expect Rivers to do anything but disappoint in '08?

16. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 56
Al Saunders and an improved O-Line could bring production back in line with career norms, but don't expect many TDs; deteriorating receiving crew is worrisome.

17. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 54
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

TIER FOUR

18. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 41
It would be foolish not to count on an adjustment period to the West Coast Offense and a new coaching staff; I think we've all seen him look very poised at times and extremely underwhelming at other times, so it will be interesting to watch his growth throughout '08. Remember the Losman/Grossman Effect: young QBs don't always get better.

19. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 40
Early signing could be an indication the team wants him to start early in the season, but he'll be doing it behind a woeful offensive line.

20. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 38
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

21. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 35
Positive marks for poise, smarts, and an ability to lead an offense, but he needs to take a major step forward in playmaking and consistency; addition of rookie Hardy should help put the ball in the end zone more often.

22. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 35
Time to start the handcuffing strategy with Arizona QBs? Simply put, he needs Leinart to fall on his face in the pre-season. Warner threw up valuable fantasy numbers the last 12 games of '07 and can do it again if given the opportunity.

23. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 34
Top of the line arm, perfect size, prodigious talent, but the footwork was an absolute mess and questions persist about his decision making; his career could go either way, and unfortunately, Oakland isn't exactly the ideal proving ground for a developing QB right now.

24. Brett Favre, NYJ | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 33
Jay Glazier reports Favre to the Jets for a conditional pick. That's gotta be a two-year commitment for Favre, right? He could still climb a bit once details start to roll in.

25. Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 32
Still has a window on '08 value with playmakers Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, but his margin for
error is razor-thin with Stanton waiting in the wings . . . and Kitna is never a strong bet to defeat his margin of error.

26. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 32
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

27. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 29
High risk, high reward; after Warner's performance, there's going to be pressure to perform well right from the start. But if he does, he could easily see a 25 TD, 3700 yard season.

28. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 26
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.


TIER FIVE

29. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 18

30. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 18

31. #Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 17
Jon Kitna will be on a much shorter leash, so expect Stanton to get a chance at some point in '08; if Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams remain in DET, Stanton makes for a very intriguing high upside pet project.

32. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 16
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

33. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 13
A legit chance to line up behind center in Week 1? The competition has been less than impressive. On the other hand, even with the starting job in a Martz offense, his crappy play will likely have the team looking for alternatives sooner rather than later.

TIER SIX

34. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7

35. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 6

36. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 6
Free agent after 2008 season.

37. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 5
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

38. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 4

39. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 4

40. Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 4
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

41. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 4
Any chance he could wind up in Minnesota now that the Jets will cut him? I've been saying for almost a year that it's the perfect landing spot for Pennington's unique package of strengths and weaknesses.

42. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 3

43. Byron Leftwich, PIT | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
When asked why he thought Leftwich was out of football, Tomlin said, “Your guess is as good as mine, based on what I saw today.”

44. #Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 3
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

45. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 3
Likely to drop even further . . . the initial reaction is: why carry him ?

46. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 3
Plucky. That's it. That's the list. OK, neckbeard. That's on the list too. Woe are the Bears.

47. #Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he starts week one.

48. #Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 3
Two of his three NFL seasons have produced historically bad performances. I don't think he beats Shaun Hill in a fair competition, but the 49ers have a lot invested here.

49. #Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 3
Awful preseason lowers expectations about taking over for Delhomme anytime soon.

TIER SEVEN

50. *Michael Vick
, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

51. Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 2
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

52. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 2

53. Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 2
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

54. Chris Simms, UFA | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2

55. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 2
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

56. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 2

57. Brett Ratliff, NYJ | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 2

58. Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 2
Will battle Luke McCown to see who starts once Garcia gets injured.

59. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

60. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2
Fantasy leaguers keep insisting that he must be passing up better opportunities elsewhere; but what are the chances NFL GMs are as fond of his game as fantasy owners are?

61. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2
More of a game-manager type than Martz' previous QBs, but he does offer athleticism, a quick release, and the ability to lead an offense. There's some upside here, and if he beats out Alex Smith for the starting job, the whole 49er offense should receive a boost in value.

62. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 2
Second on the depth chart means he just needs Croyle to play like Croyle in order to get a shot.

TIER EIGHT

63. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1
Was seen as one of the most NFL-ready QBs in the draft and may get a chance earlier than expected if Tarvaris Jackson can't put it together.

64. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

65. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

66. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 1
Captain Checkdown currently sandwiched between journeyman Josh McCown and Parcells/Sparano future starter Chad Henne.

67. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1
Upside is band-aid for a year, but Ryan's quick signing could signal the team's willingness to throw him into the fire right from the get-go.

68. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 1
Decent shot at Kurt Warner-like startable value if Bulger goes down, but keep in mind any value would be of the fleeting variety.

69. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

70. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 1

71. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

72. Josh McCown, CAR | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

73. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

74. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 1

75. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

76. David Carr, NYG | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

77. Joey Harrington, UFA | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

78. Caleb Hanie, CHI | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 1

79. Quinn Gray, UFA | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 1

80. Jared Lorenzen, UFA | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

81. [#]Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1

3 comments:

nfl power rankings said...

Yes, I believe Tom Brady is still the best quarterback. A Super Bowl might put him the best

Anonymous said...

I'm a little surprised at how high Vince Young is. He's looked awful this preseason which seems to further reinforce how he looked last season. He has no NFL caliber WR's(except Crumpler) and doesn't run near as much as commonly believed. I have a hard time seeing him ahead of guys like Eli and Garrard. Those guys will both get more total yards and more total TD's and are smaller injury risks. I can see Young ahead of guys like Bulger and Hasselbeck due to his youth and upside, but he's only like 2 years younger than Eli and I don't think he's got the upside Garrard has.

Chris Wesseling said...

I believe in Young's talent. It sometimes takes a year or two longer than we think, but talent will often find a way to rise to the top. I've recounted the story about Young's receivers killing his production last year . . . and the month straight that I covered Titans games and Young lost 8-10 TDs in that month on penalties, poor route running, and miscommunication. He's not a great passer by any means, but his receivers absolutely killed him last season.

But, yeah, he's looked awful this preseason . . . for whatever that's worth.

I'm just not an Eli believer. He's a career 54% passer with a consistency problem. Yuck.

Garrard is a fine QB, but I don't believe for a second that he has more upside than Young. I think last season, behind an ultra- dominant rushing attack was by far the best that Garrard will ever fare as a passer. He's good, but I don't see him matching the percentage stats of last season.