Brett Favre: In a New York State of Mind

True story: I actually called the Favre-to-Jets scenario when the saga started. To me, it seemed like the only scenario that made sense for all parties . . . as long as Favre could wrap his mind around playing for a team coming off a disappointing season.

I know I'm in the minority, but the Jets are a better fit for Favre than the Bucs would have been anyway. Look at the Bucs offense: 37-year-old Joey Galloway and a grab-bag of pedestrian receiving options; an aging running back stable; a defense led by Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber on their last legs. I had the Bucs in for a fall this season while the Jets just got a whole lot better, going from the league's toughest schedule to one of the easiest; bringing in a playmaker in Dustin Keller and major upgrades on the offensive line; scoring a pass rusher in both the draft and free agency along with a difference-making run stopper in Jenkins. No, they're not a threat to the Patriots, but there's no reason they can't legitimately compete for one of the wild card spots against teams like the Titans and Browns.

Random thoughts on Brett Favre's trade to the Jets:


Where does Pennington go?
The Vikings make the most sense to me, followed by the Bears. I realize many consider him a poor fit for the Vikings offense because Berrian and Rice are deep threats. Poppycock! Tarvaris Jackson is a poor fit for the whole team because they're built on defense and the running game. What they need most in a quarterback is a reliable passer who will take care of the ball, keep the defense fresh, and keep the oppposing defense from keying on Peterson and Taylor. Jackson was the mirror-opposite of that quarterback last season, and there's little reason to believe that he's grown into those qualities during the offseason.

With Peterson and Taylor keeping the opposing defenses honest, do you really believe one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the game couldn't get the ball to his receivers? Come on. And what's more important: getting the ball deep to Bernard Berrian or keeping the ball in Peterson's and Taylor's hands, sustaining long drives, and keeping that dominating defense fresh?

Conventional wisdom has the Chiefs as the favorites for Pennington's services simply because Herman Edwards is the coach. How does that make any sense whatsoever? The Chiefs already have a Chad Pennington. His name is Damon Huard, he's outplayed Pennington the last couple of seasons, and the team recently demoted him to third string, so they wouldn't be tempted to play him over their . . . um . . . future, Brodie Croyle. This makes no sense. None.

What is Brett Favre's value?
The Jets have some nice receivers and an upgraded O-line, but this trade is doubtlessly a step down in talent level and familiarity. Can Favre absorb the offense and get in synch with teammates in three pre-season games? Probably, but it's far from the ideal way to play out a season.

Gregg Rosenthal weighed in on Favre's re-draft value earlier today, and I think he may have been a bit harsh. He asked me my initial gut ranking for Favre's 2008 production, and my answer was 12-15, which would make him borderline startable at best. To me, that puts him somewhere around Jake Delhomme / Jon Kitna territory. I think Delhomme makes it through the year as the starter, and could put up some interesting numbers, as long as he stays healthy. Kitna also has a shot at startability with two spectacular receiving weapons, but he could be yanked at any time due to spotty play and a team going nowhere. I'd put Favre closer to Delhomme as there's no danger of losing the job in-season, with the more important question being: what about 2009? That's a tough read, but I got to figure he didn't go through this whole soap opera to walk away after one season with the Jets. You can't rely on that being the case with the whims of Favre, but it's a reasonable guess. Ultimately, though, not enough of a sure thing to give his value a considerable spike.

Who benefits on the Jets offense?
The obvious answer is both Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles. Favre could help Cotchery make the leap to a more reliable playmaker with a few more forays into the end zone while breathing new life into Coles' declining career. An easy comparison is Cotchery to Greg Jennings and Coles to Donald Driver, though I would expect more catches for Cotchery vs. Jennings and fewer touchdowns. I think Coles could see a significant boost if he can get two years out of Favre. Unfortunately, we just don't know how that will play out, so you'll have to make that assessment yourself.

Thomas Jones could see a benefit from added red zone opportunities, but he was already going to see a statistical correction there regardless. The problem, in Dynasty leagues, is that he's still a mediocre 30-year-old running back with a looming Leon Washington problem. To paraphrase Pro Football Prospectus, Jones was bad on first downs, worse on third downs, and miserable in the red zone last year. Now he's another year older, has been worked hard for three straight years, and was never a great short-yardage back. In other words, even with Brett Favre's impact on the offense, Jones is not much of an asset for Dynasty leaguers.

What's in store for Aaron Rodgers?
Pressure -- ungodly amounts of gut-wrenching pressure. Is he up to the task? I have no clue. On one hand, the Packers have done everything they could to set Rodgers up for success: they waited to install him until he had a firm grasp of the offense, the confidence apparent from a successful 2007 preseason and a near-rescue against the then-powerhouse Cowboys, and, most importantly, an offense chock-full of weapons. On the other hand, the handling of the Favre saga will ensure an under-the-microscope atmosphere the likes of which we've never seen. Brian Griese following John Elway could not even fathom the pressure that Rodgers will be under. Will he wilt, or will he flourish? I'm not sure any of us can say with reasonable certainty, but we do know that he'll have to stay healthy to find out.

This is going to be an interesting story to watch . . . as will Favre's performance with the Jets.