Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

More Player Notes: Playoffs Week 1

Is it becoming more and more likely that Derek Anderson will be dealt? The Browns are sitting in a nice position because they can match any offers for restricted free agent Derek Anderson and go with Brady Quinn on the bench for another season. With quite a few NFL teams desperate for a young, established starting QB, the Browns also have the option of holding out for a high price if they do decide to deal Anderson.

From Rotoworld:

Coach Romeo Crennel revealed that the Browns will listen to offers for impending restricted free agent Derek Anderson this offseason. The Browns will at least place the first- and third-round tender on Anderson, and may go as far as franchise tagging him. "Sometimes people can make you an offer and you can say, 'No, I think I'm going to stick with what I've got,'" said Crennel. "Sometimes they make you an offer and you say, 'Oooh!'" The most likely scenario remains Cleveland keeping Anderson for at least one more year. Brady Quinn's $9 million deal is very workable for a backup. Kellen Winslow believes Brady Quinn will be the Browns' starting quarterback in 2008.
"We drafted him," Winslow said. "He's probably going to play. Derek (Anderson) is a great guy, but that's just the way this business works." Winslow dropped what should've been Quinn's first pro TD pass in Week 17.

From Bill Williamson's column at the Denver Post:

It was interesting that Cleveland Browns coach Romeo Crennel said this week that the team would be willing to listen to trade offers for quarterback Derek Anderson.

Expect Crennel to get plenty. Teams that will be looking for quarterbacks include Miami, Kansas City, Baltimore, Carolina, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago and San Francisco. Anderson, a restricted free agent, has to be on the wish list of many teams after a breakout season for the Browns, who nearly made the playoffs.

Anderson should remain on the Browns' wish list, but Crennel's proclamation means the team likely is leaning toward going with Brady Quinn, who was drafted in the first round last year. Quinn is a fine prospect, but Anderson has shown he can lead the team. The Browns should stick with him.

Quinn also would net plenty in a trade, and most of the teams that need a quarterback likely would make a run at him. If they can get something for Quinn, the Browns should realize they have to stick with Anderson, who they know can succeed for them.

Here's my take from last month on Derek Anderson's future:

As a general rule, I think a 7.0 YPA is a sensible cutoff line for an acceptable passing attack in the NFL. Derek Anderson's YPA is down some after spending most of the season around 8.0, but he's still at a very respectable 7.5. Unfortunately, the flip side is his Eli-esque 57% completion percentage and 14 interceptions.

All of which brings me to my favorite recent player comparison. I've seen comparisons of the Anderson/Quinn situation to Brees/Rivers and comparisons of Anderson to one-hit-wonders like Scott Mitchell, but do you know who Derek Anderson is? He's Jake Delhomme. Both guys came out of nowhere to light a fire under their teams once they were given a shot. Both guys did it by locking on to their best weapons down the field (Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad vs. Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow). Both guys can put up 25-30 TDs in any given season by allowing their playmakers to make plays, but struggle more than a top-half NFL QB should with accuracy. Both guys are good for 7.5 YPA to go along with some bone-headed mistakes. Both guys can put up points, but most years their dichotomous mixture of strengths and weaknesses will prevent their team from getting past 10 wins and the first round of the playoffs.

I think the best asset of both Delhomme and Anderson is a willingness and ability to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers...and only their playmakers. Would you give up a 1st & 3rd round NFL draft pick for Jake Delhomme?

My sense is that Anderson is slightly overrated due to a hot start and the fact that we don't have a full body of work like we do with Delhomme. If the comparison holds up, Derek Anderson is going to settle into a career of being just shy of what you want in a franchise quarterback. The counting stats are going to look very nice most years, but I think the below average accuracy and less than optimal decision making will keep him too inconsistent to be a yearly stud.
I think the Browns should trade Anderson and go with Quinn if they can get a nice haul in return. If anybody wants to give up that 1st and 3rd round pick price, the Browns should jump on it.

And you thought Ahman Green was done:

Texans coach Gary Kubiak believes Ahman Green "can be a huge factor" for the team when healthy.
"We're counting on Ahman coming back and being 100 percent," Kubiak said. Green will probably be limited all offseason, then practice only once a day in training camp after knee swelling cost him all but six games in 2007.

The problem with Ahman Green is different than the problem with Shaun Alexander. Green isn't washed up or ineffective when he plays. His problem is that you can't count on him stay healthy and productive for more than a couple of weeks in a row. He makes for fine depth, but you don't want to put yourself in a situation where you have to count on him, especially as the Texans have the looks of a franchise set to take a RB fairly high in this year's draft.

Your deep sleeper this off-season:

The Vikings are not expected to try to re-sign Mewelde Moore this offseason.
Moore will be a free agent in March and will be viewed as a potential third down back/return man. He has a career yards per carry average of 4.9.

Remember that October a few years back when Mewelde Moore was one of the most productive fantasy backs in the league? I do. For whatever reason, his coaches have been turned off by something in his game or his personality since that season, but he's produced whenever he's gotten a chance. He may not be able to sustain a rushing attack, but he could put up some numbers in a timeshare if he gets the opportunity next season.

Travis Henry's value in a ditch again? It doesn't look like Denver wants him back after another disappointing season:

"It would be a surprise" if Travis Henry was back with the Broncos next year, according to the Denver Post.
Henry was third on the depth chart for the season finale, as Selvin Young carried the load. Andre Hall backed Young up. Henry would be somewhat expensive to release, however, so don't be assured that he's out in Denver.

I've never been a big Henry fan even in light of the hoopla wasted on him at the footballguys board after the Broncos handed him big bucks last off-season. He's simply too inconsistent to have any dynasty value beyond year-to-year, and frankly he's not talented enough to bank on as anything more than a roll of the dice backup RB.

One of the better QBs on a weak market this off-season? J.P. Losman is likely to be traded:

The agent for J.P. Losman told the AP Friday that his client wants to be traded by the Bills.
"That ship has sailed, my friend," agent Gary Wichard said. "Hopefully, they do something this year. And if not, we'll just walk away after next year." Any trades will be on hold in Buffalo until the team finds a new general manager. Marv Levy's successor seems likely to honor Losman's request.

Another player I knocked when he was sitting on top of the world heading into last season, I don't think an NFL team is winning with J.P. Losman. I think we've seen his best, and it's somewhere around the 20-25th best QB in the NFL. By definition, that makes him an upgrade on quite a few situations around the league. Specifically, he'd be an improvement on the QBs in CHI, MIN, BAL, ATL, MIA, KC, and SF.

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