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Friday, January 25, 2008

2008 Off-Season Quarterback Landscape

**Updated 2/19/08



[99] Tom Brady NE 31.1

[1] Matt Cassel NE 26.3

[0] Matt Gutierrez NE 24.3

Outlook: Brady is a rock. Cassel, once thought to be an intriguing prospect and/or trade target, may find himself passed by Gutierrez eventually.


[26] Trent Edwards BUF 24.9

[7] J.P. Losman BUF [T] 27.5

Outlook: Edwards has a lot of work in front of him to become a fantasy factor, but he showed a good enough arm, leadership ability, and smarts. OC Schonert has vowed to open up the offense, but the team is still woefully short on weapons. Losman may stay around as the backup with teams not likely to pay the Bills' asking price.


[20] Kellen Clemens NYJ 25.3

[6] Chad Pennington NYJ [T] 32.2

Outlook: After a dynamite pre-season, Clemens struggled mightily with accuracy and decision-making in his late season trial, though he did show intriguing athleticism and a strong arm. Pennington is the better QB right now, but despite the front office's protestations to the contrary, he just doesn't fit well on a team with the Jets' strengths and weaknesses. With a hefty bonus due and a high salary for 2008, it remains to be seen if Pennington sticks around and what his role will be.


[5] John Beck MIA 27.1

[2] Josh McCown MIA 29.2

Outlook: John Beck not only isn't ready at age 27, but he's also been set up to fail by the organization. The Parcells/Ireland operation doesn't figure to simply hand over the reigns for a year on a lost season and may turn to Matt Ryan with the #1 overall pck. McCown is awful, and the Dolphins claim he's more backup than competition for the starting job.



[93] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 26.5

[0] Charlie Batch PIT 33.7

Outlook: Roethlisberger took the next step to Franchise QB and looks likely to stay at that level for a long time. Batch simply allows the Steelers to tread water if Big Ben goes down for a game or two.


[61] Derek Anderson CLE 25.2

[33] Brady Quinn CLE 23.9

[0] Ken Dorsey CLE 27.4

Outlook: Anderson, the latest Delhomme model, has a one-year trial to cement his status as Franchise QB. If he disappoints, the Browns will turn to Brady Quinn. Either way, the 2-QB system is only a one year trial with the team likely to make its ultimate choice for the future after the 2008 season.


[91] Carson Palmer CIN 28.7

[1] Ryan Fitzpatrick CIN [R] 25.8

[0] Jeff Rowe CIN 24.5

Outlook: Palmer regressed a bit from his no-doubt Franchise QB status this season and will be under pressure in 2008 to prove that he remains an elite signal-caller. The Bengals would like to retain RFA Ryan Fitzpatrick as the back-up.


[4] Troy Smith BAL 24.2

[2] #Steve McNair BAL 35.5

[2] Kyle Boller BAL 27.3

Outlook: The new coaching staff appears to be leaning towards running McNair out ther for another season, but can he possibly have anything left in the tank? Smith, though promising as a leader, is clearly not ready to pass an offense into anything but a lost season, which is a problem since Boller specializes in the lost season. Look for help early in the draft with someone like Joe Flacco or Brian Brohm.



[100] Peyton Manning IND 32.5

[1] Jim Sorgi IND 27.8

Outlook: Manning seems like he's due for a "Remember me?" season with 4,000 yards and 30 TDs as the worst case scenario. Sorgi resumes his role as the Maytag Repairman.


[59] David Garrard JAX 30.5

[1] Cleo Lemon JAX 29.1

Outlook: With the aid of a top-notch running game, Garrard has made the leap from game manager to play maker. Lemon is a capable backup but too poor of a passer to be anything more.


[60] Vince Young TEN 25.3

[1] Kerry Collins TEN 35.7

[0] Ingle Martin TEN 26.0

Outlook: The Titans have vowed to get Vince Young some weapons, and Alge Crumpler is a nice upgrade at tight end, but the team is still desperate for a talent infusion at WR. Still, VY will run more in '08 and looks like a prime buy-low this off-season. Free agent Collins would be stretched as a starter at this stage of his career, but he makes for a fine in-season patch.


[59] Matt Schaub HOU 27.2

[5] Sage Rosenfels HOU 30.5

Outlook: Matt Schaub is the unquestioned starter though it's fair to say durability concerns may haunt him until he makes it through a full season. The high YPA and completion percentage point toward future success. The Vikings have shown interest in backup Rosenfels, but he's valuable to the Texans in his current role.



[53] #Philip Rivers SD 26.8

[2] Billy Volek SD 32.4

[1] Charlie Whitehurst SD 26.1

Outlook: Rivers' playoff performance was inspiring after such an inconsistent season, but his ACL injury will likely hold him back for awhile. Even if he suits up early in the season, keep in mind the struggles of Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb in returning from late-season ACL surgeries . . . and Rivers is no Palmer or McNabb in terms of talent and track record. Volek may get a shot at a few starts if Rivers is still having knee issues early in the season.


[73] Jay Cutler DEN 25.3

[1] Patrick Ramsey DEN 29.5

Outlook: After another season of impressive YPA and completion percentage numbers, Cutler is beginning to look like the cream of the '06 QB crop. He has the potential to approach Franchise QB status if he can find some consistency. Ramsey returns to back him up again in '08.


[3] Brodie Croyle KC 25.5

[2] Damon Huard KC 35.2

[0] Tyler Thigpen KC 24.4

[0] David Greene KC 26.2

Outlook: After failing to win a rigged QB competition in the pre-season, Croyle fared even worse when handed a shot a regular season playing time. He's appallingly bad, and the offense runs considerably better under journeyman Damon Huard. The Chiefs are at a crossroads with Croyle, and I'll be shocked if they still see him as their QB of the present or the future after a couple more starts. Their' style isn't to look outside the organization for a potential QB, but they may not be able to pass up on developing their own franchise QB in Matt Ryan if he is available when they pick early in the first round.


[31] JaMarcus Russell OAK 23.1

[1] Andrew Walter OAK 26.3

Outlook: Russell goes into 2008 as the unquestioned starter, but he has his work cut out for him. Despite his prodigious physical gifts, Russell needs a major overhaul on both his decision making and footwork. The team brought in Quinn Gray for a look, which leads one to believe they still see Walter as more of a project than reliable backup.



[90] Tony Romo DAL 28.4

[0] Brad Johnson DAL [x] 40.0

Outlook: Romo comes off another highly impressive regular season and another disappointing playoff performance. He still has a very promising future, but how dependent on T.O. is that offense? This team needs to invest heavily in a talented young WR.


[58] Eli Manning NYG 27.6

[0] David Carr NYG 29.1

[0] Anthony Wright NYG 32.6

[0] Jared Lorenzen NYG [R] 27.6

Outlook: After the mid-season public questioning of Eli's franchise QB status and the doubts about his heavy option being picked up, his post-season run has rendered that hand wringing pointless. It's fair to question his consistency and the repeatability of those last 6 games, but there's no doubt he's the franchise QB now.


[32] Jason Campbell WAS 26.6

[1] Todd Collins WAS 36.8

Outlook: It appears that Jim Zorn was hired specifically to help Campbell take the next step as an NFL QB. It's questionable whether Campbell's strengths match up well with the new West Coast offense, but either way the prudent move is to expect progress to be slow in such a significant transition.


[80] Donovan McNabb PHI 31.7

[15] Kevin Kolb PHI 24.0

[1] A.J. Feeley PHI 31.3

Outlook: McNabb will be back with the Eagles as a great bounceback candidate in '08, though it would be nice if the Eagles could finally land one of these superstar receivers they're chasing. It's interesting that the Eagles have a similar situation to that of the Browns at QB. After the season, the team will have to assess their QB situation and determine whether to stay the course with McNabb or let Kolb have a shot. It seems likely that one of them will be dealt before the '09 season.



[39] Aaron Rodgers GB 24.8

Outlook: By all accounts Rodgers is ready now to lead an NFL offense, and he inherits one with manifold weapons. If he can avoid injuries, Rodgers has a chance to put up some interesting numbers as a first time starter. The team is still searching for a reliable backup.


[13] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 25.4

[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 28.8

Outlook: The Vikes are in a conundrum with Jackson. He's shown glimpses of potential, but potential isn't a good fit at QB when the rest of the team is a definite playoff contender. The problem comes in when looking at the paucity of superior options on the market this offseason. Chad Pennington would be a perfect fit, but it seems the Vikes would prefer to feel out the price for Sage Rosenfels and J.P. Losman instead.


[24] Drew Stanton DET 24.4

[12] Jon Kitna DET 36.0

[1] Dan Orlovsky DET [R] 25.1

Outlook: Kitna has reached the point where he's less likely to make it through the whole season as the starter and has proven that he's no longer a short-term answer even with the prodigious talent of Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams. Stanton is an intriguing stash for dynasty leaguers. He's likely to get his shot at some point in the 2008 season, and he'll be throwing to a couple of beasts when he does line up behind center.


[4] Kyle Orton CHI 25.8

[3] Rex Grossman CHI 28.0

Outlook: Is there an organization with less of a clue in judging the offensive talent on their own roster than the Chicago Bears? Lovie Smith continually chooses the wrong QB while Angelo believes there are plenty of plum options at QB already on the roster. The Bears need to cut ties with Grossman and Griese, but Kyle Orton is all backup and no starter. Whatever this Bears regime decides, it's a plan that will almost certainly fail.



[7] Jeff Garcia TB 38.5

[4] Luke McCown TB 27.2

[2] Brian Griese TB 33.5

[1] Chris Simms TB [x] 28.0

[1] Bruce Gradkowski TB 25.7

Outlook: Garcia had a very good season as an NFL QB, but his days as a fantasy factor are long gone. McCown makes for an intriguing stash behind an older, injury-prone QB, and this McCown is a significantly better passer than his brother.


[14] #Jake Delhomme CAR 33.6

[2] Matt Moore CAR 24.1

[0] Brett Basanez CAR 25.4

Outlook: The backup QB spot has held this team hostage for two straight years, but the Panthers finally believe they have a reliable one in Matt Moore. I wouldn't go that far, but he's undoubtedly a step up from the law firm of Weinke, Carr & Testaverde. Delhomme started off last season on fire before going down with the elbow injury. He's not to be relied on as anything more than a backup fantasy QB at this point in his career, but he makes for a nice buy-low grab as a throw-in in a larger trade.


[89] Drew Brees NO 29.6

[0] Jamie Martin NO (U) 38.6

[0] Tyler Palko NO 25.1

Outlook: Brees bounced back nicely after a seriously disconcerting start and looks like a lock to continue his streak of Top 10 finishes in the future.


[2] Chris Redman ATL 31.2

[1] Joey Harrington ATL 29.9

#D.J. Shockley ATL 25.5

[1] *Michael Vick ATL [x] 28.2

Outlook: Well, it could be Matt Ryan, or Byron Leftwich with his ties to new coach Mike Smith, or Redman with his relatively promising showing, or a guy like J.P. Losman, or someone personally tabbed by Dimitroff. Right now it's pointless to even hazard a guess at how this situation will play out in 2008.



[67] Matt Hasselbeck SEA 33.0

[3] Seneca Wallace SEA 28.1

[1] Charlie Frye SEA 27.0

Outlook: The opposite of Atlanta. The depth chart is etched in stone with all parties likely to return in '08. Hasselbeck remains a low end fantasy starter, but he could see a decrease in passing attempts if the Seahawks land a 1st round RB. With Deion Branch likely to miss at least the first six games and D.J. Hackett a possible free agent loss, Hasselbeck's receiving crew could take a step back in '08.


[54] Matt Leinart ARI 25.3

[12] Kurt Warner ARI 37.3

[0] Tim Rattay ARI (U) 31.5

Outlook: This is an interesting situation. Matt Leinart makes for an outstanding buy-low if you're the riverboat gambling type; on the other hand, with Warner and his 27 TDs in 13 games hot on his heels, Leinart has very little margin for error in the pre-season or early regular season. Either QB could put up startable fantasy numbers.


[14] Shaun Hill SF 28.7

[8] #Alex Smith SF 24.3

[1] J.T. O'Sullivan SF 29.0

Outlook: It's going to be awfully tough for the organization to effectively throw up its hands on former #1 overall pick Alex Smith, but I think the underdog Hill will be Martz' choice to run the offense. Hill won't get the ball down the field for big plays, but he showed decisiveness, a quick release, and much better accuracy than Smith in his late-season trial.


[68] Marc Bulger STL 31.4

[2] Trent Green STL 38.2

[0] Brock Berlin STL 27.2

Outlook: It would be easy to call for a bounceback season for Bulger, but temper your expectations. They have a lot of work to do on the O-Line, the receivers are past their prime, and they've made it clear that S-Jax is now the centerpiece of the offense. Throw in Bulger's fragility and red zone troubles, and there's not nearly as much upside here as there once was. However, the addition of Al Saunders as offensive coordinator is a very good sign.

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