Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

TESTING - RUNNING BACK RANKINGS

*Note: I'm testing to see whether this format looks better with the numbering sequence changed back to normal and the name, age, and value score all on the first line. It looks like it takes up significantly more space, but I think it has a better and easier to read appearance. Feedback is encouraged. If you think it looks much better or much worse, please comment. Thanks.

RUNNING BACKS

TIER ONE

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 100
Simply the most talented player on the field [click here]

2. Steven Jackson, STL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 98
Rams & new offensive coordinator Al Saunders to build offense around multi-dimensional S-Jax.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 97
Have we seen the last of the truly dominant LT2? He may bounce back with a vengeance after all the flack he took for the Pats game, but it's tough to rank him higher at the crucial RB age of 29.

4. Frank Gore, SF | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 93
Talented, well-rounded, great job security, and in line to haul in a ton of receptions in Martz' offense which saw Marshall Faulk take his game to the next level.

5. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 93
Money in PPR leagues and still underrated, but injuries are a constant concern; is this offseason the time to flip him for a younger talent before it's too late?

TIER TWO

6. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 87
One of the best players in the NFL and averages a TD per game even in limited touches; his time for Westbrook-like domination is coming like a freight train.

7. Joseph Addai, IND | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 87
Safe call in the Colts offense, but is 300 touches per year his limit?

8. Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 85
Hit-and-run incident shouldn't affect his '08 value.

9. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 81
Something is askew here: his owners are constantly trying to deal him, but they also consider him an elite back. The problem is he's not quite the ideal RB1 that dynasty leaguers want to rely on, but it's increasingly difficult to trade him for an upgrade.

TIER THREE

10. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 21.0 | Value Score: 75
On one hand, you've got a RB with laughably skinny chicken legs to go with a worrisome BMI, a checkered off the field college history, and what Pro Football Prospectus calls questionable pass-catching ability. On the other hand, you have a tremendous athlete with a truly versatile skill-set, a prodigious college career, and a playmaker's explosiveness and blazing speed. He's not Adrian Peterson, but he certainly makes for an intriguing roll of the dice.

11. Marion Barber III, DAL | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 74
New contract gives him much-needed security, but he's still going to be sharing the load with Felix Jones. Expect the high TD, lower yardage totals to continue.

12. Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 71
We have to accept the fact that he's not the dynamic homerun hitter he was hyped to be, but he's still gold in PPR leagues and was used at the goal-line while Deuce was injured.

13. Larry Johnson, KC | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 70
With the dwindling YPC, the 400+ carry season of '06, the foot injury, the perdition of what was once possibly the best O-Line in NFL history, and now a punchless Croyle-led offense, L.J. simply has too much going against him to return to '05-'06 form. Those days are gone.

14. Ryan Grant, GB | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 69
The Packers love his game, so there's no worry about job security any time soon; how will Favre's exit affect the production of the running game?

15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 21.5 | Value Score: 68
Hey, Adrian Peterson starting out returning kickoffs too. Stewart's draft spot and running style leave him as the obvious feature back, but it remains to be seen how annoying D-Willy's presence will be. Pro Football Prospectus believes Williams will be the starter, but the Panthers didn't draft Stewart twelfth overall and change to a smash-mouth attack just to leave him on the bench.

16. Willis McGahee, BAL | Age: 26.9 | Value Score: 68
Drafting of Ray Rice could be more troublesome than McGahee owners want to admit.

17. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 66
Here's the crux of the problem: even with the advances of modern medical technology, no RB in history has returned as the same back immediately after ACL surgery. If Brown won't be truly himself again until '09, what's his dynasty value? Can he be counted on as a fantasy starter at all in '08? The answer to that last question is going to count for a lot in determining his value.

TIER FOUR

18. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT | Age: 21.2 | Value Score: 59
Goes to a rock-solid organization with an increasingly explosive offense, but how long until he takes a full load? How long until he's a confident weekly play in your fantasy lineup?

19. Laurence Maroney, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 57
It will be interesting to see if the Pats trust Maroney in short yardage after his success there late in the season; Maroney is a talented back in a great offense, but there are still legit concerns about his usage patterns in that offense.

20. Chris Johnson, TEN | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 53
I think he's much closer to taking a part-time gig and making it worthwhile than backs like Jerious Norwood and Leon Washington have been. Johnson may be closer to Reggie Bush in usage and talent, and it won't take much at all to snatch touches from LenDale White. Extremely high marks for speed, pass catching ability, opportunity, and upside here. Less of a sure bet for immediate value than Forte or Smith but more explosive difference-making potential. How does that fit your roster, needs, and style?

21. Jamal Lewis, CLE | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 52
Too many dynasty owners are writing off a talented back who is playing very well with fresh legs6 there aren't too many RBs around the league with this much job security and a guaranteed prominent role in a highly productive offense. Frankly, I probably have him too low as opposed to too high.

22. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 48
Will be the Thunder to Norwood's Lightning in ATL, meaning Turner will get the early down and short-yardage work but will likely lose some value in the passing game. Will he find the end zone enough to make up for Norwood's production drain?

23. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 47
arly favorite to nail down the starting job despite what you may hear about Brian Calhoun or Tatum Bell.

24. Matt Forte, CHI | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 46
Are you really worried about Cedric Benson? Well then, stop that. Forte has a plum opportunity with only Cedric to beat out. Update 7/17/08: I still believe Kevin Jones is likely to open the season on the PUP list.

25. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 46
He will always face questions about staying healthy and being a bit of a novelty act, and now he has to contend with an Ahmad Bradshaw problem. Would a contract extension really clear anything up about his value?

26. Selvin Young, DEN | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 42
Talented, explosive, and well-liked by his head coach, but how consistent will the carries be? Looks like the obvious starter in Denver now that Henry has been released.

TIER FIVE

27. Ray Rice, BAL | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 31
Willis McGahee better stay healthy if he knows what's good for him. In the meantime, Rice will try to carve out a poor man's MJD role for himself in the Ravens offense.

28. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 30
Like Willie Parker a couple of years ago, Thomas could capitalize on a huge Week 17 game to carve out a prominent role in his team's offense especially if Deuce's microfracture right knee and ACL left knee hold him back.

29. Earnest Graham, TB | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 29
Most of his value is going to be tied up in the 2008 season with the Bucs showing a definite interest in finding another reliable RB by hook or by crook; he can help you win now, but there's just not enough long-range value here . . . as evidenced by his meager contract extension.

30. Julius Jones, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 29
Seahawks announce intention to use a committee attack in the backfield; but Jones will have a chance to run with the job if he impresses early in the season.

31. Felix Jones, DAL | Age: 21.3 | Value Score: 28
Barber's contract extension and Jones' skill-set combine to leave him as a part-time back for the foreseeable future. He's going to have to catch a lot of passes and break quite a few big plays to have startable value any time soon.

31. DeAngelo Williams, CAR | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 28
Not likely to get regular goal-line work regardless, but if CAR stays with Toefield as his timeshare partner, Williams gets another spike in value. If they draft a talented back, the questions will linger.

33. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 27
I was eyeballing his game for weaknesses throughout the playoffs, but I didn't find any glaring ones; he may not be able to carry a full load, but the question is moot with Jacobs in front of him.

34. Thomas Jones, NYJ | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 26
With the Jets' re-vamped O-Line, he could move up a bit as long as the Jets don't draft a RB in the first couple of rounds; unfortunately, many suspect the Jets are the likely McFadden landing spot.

35. Willie Parker, PIT | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 25
When you lose goal-line carries & 3rd down work, you lose a hefty portion of your fantasy value; I like FWP, but I've always sensed that the Steelers don't trust him to be a true workhorse. Mendenhall's addition may leaves him virtually unstartable and certainly unreliable.

36. LenDale White, TEN | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 25
In addition to the dedication, weight, & maturity issues, BakeSale has picked up a couple more: (1) He's useless if the Titans are playing from behind and (2) The Titans are going to be continually on the lookout for a quality RB to pair with him and siphon production.

37. #Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 22
Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love.

38. Rudi Johnson, CIN | Age: 28.9 | Value Score: 22
Looking more and more like he'll have his job back full-time to open the season, but this could be more of a committee approach than previous seasons.

39. Edgerrin James, ARI | Age: 30.1 | Value Score: 21
The cliff is approaching fast; his goal-line & passing game production have already been taken away while his age and workload history are working hard against him.

TIER SIX

40. Michael Bush, OAK | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 14
Now that he's healthy, can he stay healthy? If so, carving out a role as the thunder to McFadden's lightning is a possibility.

41. Ryan Torain, DEN | Age: 22.1 | Value Score: 13
Going awfully high in rookie drafts due to his opportunity, but how likely is it that he'll ever be a full-time back for the Broncos? Worth a roll of the dice if the price is right, but his value may always be tenuous for the exact same reason you're falling for him: you can never role out a Denver running back.

42. Chester Taylor, MIN | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 12
As valuable of a pure backup as any RB in the league, Taylor is still most valuable to Adrian Peterson owners; won't be a free agent until after the '09 season when he'll be almost 31-years-old.

43. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 11
As expected, Norwood won't be given an opportunity to shoulder the load in ATL; how valuable can be with limited touches?

44. Ricky Williams, MIA | Age: 31.3 | Value Score: 11
Could be a good story here if Brown is slow to return to full health; after a couple of seasons away from football, Ricky should have fresh legs and is one of the few backups who can carry a full load if needed.

45. LaMont Jordan, NE | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 9
Just release him already! He turns 30 this season and the chronic back problems leave him as nothing more than a backup option, but he has a chance to be startable for a few games at a time if he gets the opportunity .

46. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 9
What are the chances he stays healthy and holds off all of the competition for his job throughout the whole season? Sell (relatively) high if it's not too late; McFadden to the Raiders at #4 flattens his value.

47. Tim Hightower, ARI | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 9
It remains to be seen how talented he is, but he's landed in a great spot for instant opportunity. Hightower must impress this season, or the Cards will address the position with a higher pick or free agent next offseason.

48. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 8
Looks like a third down back to me. He may be interesting as a Leon Washington type, but I don't see him ever taking the job in Houston and making it valuable.


TIER SEVEN

49. Brandon Jackson, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 7
Jackson owners who drafted him with a high rookie pick want to believe he could eventually win the job from Grant, but it's just not going to happen. Jackson is buried behind Grant, and he'll be lucky to get regular 3rd down duty.

50. Jamaal Charles, KC | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 7
A kick returner and role player for as long as LJ stays healthy and productive.

51. Ahman Green, HOU | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 6
Mistakenly regarded as washed up when he should more accurately be portrayed as a RB who can still play and play well but can't stay healthy under a full workload at this stage of his career.

52. Fred Taylor, JAX | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 6
Has as much value as a 32-year-old, part-timer without goal-line and passing game opportunities can possibly have.

53. Derrick Ward, NYG | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 6
Looks like injury history scared off potential suitors, so he re-signs with Giants which dampens his value.

54. Chris Brown, HOU | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 6
Picked a good situation with Texans' zone blocking scheme and no dominant RB in front of him, but Brown just can't be relied on as more than a committee back.

55. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 6
A homerun hitter, but just not physical enough to ever be more than a part-timer; his only hope for value is to catch enough passes to be useful in PPR leagues.

56. Ladell Betts, WAS | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 5
Now more insurance for Portis as opposed to a backfield complement; startable in the event of a Portis injury but valueless in the meantime.

57. [#]Cadillac Williams, TB | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 5
We've heard everything from "career's over" to "suiting up by week one." The most like scenario is that he'll start the season on the PUP list and will be a shadow of his former self once he does return . . . and truth be told his former self wasn't all that hot to begin with.

58. Lorenzo Booker, PHI | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 5
Only hope for value is as a flex player in PPR leagues. Can he catch enough passes to make himself relevant?

59. Mike Hart, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 5
Sleeper.

60. Tatum Bell, DET | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 5
Currently the starting RB in Detroit, but that may change before long; didn't stop Tatum from predicting 1,300 yards & 15 TDs for himself this season.

TIER EIGHT

61. Jalen Parmele, MIA | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 4

62. Chris Perry, CIN | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 4
As brittle as brittle can be, and likely lost more than a step by now, but there's a window of opportunity in Cincy's backfield.

63. Kenny Watson, CIN | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 4
Too pedestrian to grab hold of the starting RB job and run with it, but a repeat of his effective '07 season is possible if no other RB steps up for the Bengals.

64. Maurice Morris, SEA | Age: 28.8 | Value Score: 4

65. Sammy Morris, NE | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 3
Was a good fit in New England's offense, but Maroney stepped up when Morris was out with his sternum/clavicle injury; will he keep the short-yardage/goal-line work? Always a chance for an increased role with the whims of Belichick fetish, he rarely takes skill position offensive players early in the first round.

66. Dominic Rhodes, IND | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 3
Back in Indy, but will he get the benefit of the doubt over rookie Hart?

67. Tashard Choice, DAL | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 3
Barber's new long-term deal renders Choice to roster fodder for a couple of years.

68. Andre Hall, DEN | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 4
Any RB in DEN could get a shot, but he's definitely 3rd on the depth chart even before April's draft; didn't ingratiate himself to his coach by getting arrested last month.

69. Cedric Benson, UFA | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 3
Benson will be expensive to cut, but his latest drunk driving charge gives GM Angelo a convenient out that allows him to save face on Benson's missing talent.

TIER NINE

70. Xavier Omon, BUF | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 2

71. Fred Jackson, BUF | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 2
Coaching staff is high on him, but he's more of a change of pace/pure backup as opposed to a guy with an opportunity.

72. Chris Taylor, HOU | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 2
Longshot, but the coaching staff seems high on him.

73. Jerome Harrison, CLE | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 2

74. #Deuce McAllister, NO | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 2
Wait, ACL surgery on his left knee and microfracture surgery on his formerly reconstructed right knee? Now that's a horse of a different color for a 30-year-old RB. Why weren't we informed of this microfracture surgery? I can't envision a scenario where Deuce is not washed up at this point.

75. #Kenny Irons
, CIN | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 2
There's definitely a window of opportunity in Cincinnati's backfield right now, but it's going to tough for Irons to exploit it at less than 100% in the year following ACL surgery.

76. Antonio Pittman, STL | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 2
More of a pure backup than Brian Leonard at this point.

77. Darren Sproles, SD | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 2
Explosive. Could find fantasy value as a receiving weapon out of the backfield if the Chargers made it a point to get the ball to him, but his slight build will likely keep him from handling the ball enough to make a sizable fantasy impact.

78. DeShaun Foster, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 2
Signed a meager contract to head West as Frank Gore's backup; don't look for a heavy role in the offense unless Gore gets injured.

79. DeShawn Wynn, GB | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 2
Green Bay sees him as more of a pure backup than Jackson, but Wynn's injuries have put him solidly on the bench behind Ryan Grant.

80. Gary Russell, PIT | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 2

81. Jacob Hester, SD | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 2

82. Najeh Davenport, UFA | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 2

83. Adrian Peterson, CHI | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 2
ight now he's the most effective RB in Chicago, but will likely go back to his former role when new talent is added in the draft.

84. Tony Hunt, PHI | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 2
Could become the short-yardage back in Philly, but not likely to ever be more than one half of a time share backfield.

85. Kolby Smith, KC | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 2
Was decent in a 5-game trial at the end of the season, but he's limited to backup duty going forward.

86. J.J. Arrington, ARI | Age: 25.6 | Value Score: 2
Appears the Cardinals don't see him as anything more than a 3rd down back

87. Chauncy Washington, JAX | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 2

88. Musa Smith, NYJ | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 2
Not without talent, but too unreliable due to injury history; would have to land in the ideal situation to merit a look beyond stash option.

89. Jesse Chatman, NYJ | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 2

90. Michael Pittman, DEN | Age: 33.1 | Value Score: 2

TIER TEN

91. Mewelde Moore, PIT | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1
A weapon in the passing game and likely to take over punt-return duties; has a track record of impressive performance in small doses but gets nicked up easily.

92. Cory Boyd, TB | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1

93. Michael Robinson, SF | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

94. Vernand Morency, GB | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 1
Ceiling is 3rd down back.

95. Thomas Brown, ATL | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 1

96. Marcus Thomas, SD | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 1

97. Warrick Dunn, TB | Age: 33.7 | Value Score: 1
Ill-suited to 3rd down work at this point in his career, but that's where he's going to play.

98. Michael Bennett, TB | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 1

99. Travis Henry, UFA | Age: 29.8 | Value Score: 1
Released by Broncos and unlikely to nail down a starting job the rest of his career.

100. Shaun Alexander, UFA | Age: 31.0 | Value Score: 1
His days as a workhorse are long gone, and he's going to struggle to ever maintain fantasy relevance again.

101. Aaron Stecker, NO | Age: 32.8 | Value Score: 1

102. Kenton Keith, IND | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 1

103. Brian Calhoun, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1

104. Justin Forsett, SEA | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 1

105. Dwayne Wright, BUF | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 1

106. T.J. Duckett, SEA | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 1

107. Correll Buckhalter
, PHI | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

108. Ryan Moats
, PHI | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 1

109. Danny Ware, NYG | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 1

12 comments:

Duane said...

Why no blurb for Darren McFadden? We demand a "Wess Blurb" for Darren!

Chris Wesseling said...

Done.

I was waiting until I could a more firm grip on his strengths and weaknesses. I'm still equivocating, but I'm just not sure where I see his career going. . . .

Duane said...

Your reference to a "worriesome BMI" sent me Googleing and I found an article by Chase Stuart on Pro-Football Reference. It's an interesting article. I do think that most backs that are in need of some weight work to put it on once they get to the NFL. For example, Clinton Portis was listed at 192 coming out of Miami (according to Sporting News Draft Guide 2002), but has bulked up to 205. If McFadden puts on even 10 lbs his BMI will become 28.8 which puts him in the range of modern backs like Terrell Davis, Ricky Watters, Clinton Portis, and Adrian Peterson.

Still, more than BMI, off field issues, et al., the biggest reason I'm concerned about McFadden is the organization that drafted him. Al Davis is nuts and they have zero stability out there. That's a poison culture that can drain the will from someone like McFadden.

That said, if I had the #1 pick...I'd still take him.

Anonymous said...

hi,

I liked the old format where you had the value grade at the front of each player- 97, 95, 87, etc.
I found it a great help.

The regular 1, 2, 3, numbering makes the rankind just like any other run-of-the-mill ranking. I hope you switch back. :)

Anonymous said...

Why so low on Michael Turner? The guy is finally getting his shot and should be close to a full time RB and he's behind guys like Chris Johnson(small workload) and Jamal Lewis(older guy?)

Two other guys I have a little higher are Maroney and Pierre Thomas.

In Thomas' case I just think Deuce is finished and Reggie is going to be scaled back even more with Shockey on board. I see 200 touches in an explosive offense there for the taking and I believe Thomas will take them. He seems more likely to be valuable to me than rookies like Ray Rice and especially Felix Jones who likely won't see anywhere near as many touches this year or in the near future(barring injuries.)

I'm high on Maroney, I think the guy we saw in the playoffs is the guy we are going to get this year. He wasn't healthy to start last season which was the main reason Morris got so much work, and teams are going to try and make New England beat them on the ground this year. Combine that with the league's easiest schedule and the Patriots being the league's most explosive offense and Maroney seems way to low. How is Ronnie Brown ahead of him? He's coming off of a torn ACL on a lesser team in a new offense with a better RB fighting for carries. McGahee is the same thing only without the ACL. I just think people are really sleeping on Maroney this year, perhaps its backlash from him being overrated going into last season, but the talent is there and the chance is there. I see him as a high-upside RB2 with possible low-end RB1 potential. I could see him being the Patriots' version of Addai minus the catches, but with probably more big plays.

Chris Wesseling said...

Re: Maroney. I just typed the following report on Rotoworld:

"NFL Network's Adam Schefter reports the Patriots have signed RB LaMont Jordan, a day after he was released by the Raiders.
Jordan also considered New Orleans, but the Pats swooped in on another cheap, serviceable vet. This may say as much about the club's confidence in Sammy Morris' health as it does about Laurence Maroney. However, it's been clear for some time that Maroney's usage patterns were simply not reliable enough for fantasy leaguers, and Jordan's signing adds further concern. Maroney will remain the starter, but Jordan could play a significant enough role to hamper Maroney's consistency and overall production."

It's been obvious to me that the Pats just haven't trusted Maroney to stay healthy and cease dancing behind the line of scrimmage. Their constant kicking the tires routines with free agent RBs was also worrisome. I'll acknowledge that this may say more about Sammy Morris than Maroney, but I just don't trust the Pats to use Maroney consistently enough to be a fantasy advantage.

Chris Wesseling said...

Re: Michael Turner.

He's going to be running behind a god-awful offensive line in a poor offense overall. Furthermore, he doesn't catch the ball. Running backs who don't help out with receiving numbers MUST get into the end zone to make up for it. Will the Falcons put him in the red zone enough?

Not to be overlooked is that data on backup RBs going from situational roles to starting status. That data bodes very poorly for Turner's future.

To quote Pro Football Prospectus:

"So far, there is little indication that short bursts of production in situational roles are harbingers of big things to come."

"Charlie Garner is the only one who went on to have sustained success as a starter."

"There are no predictors you can really hang your hat on. The few indicators we can find are fairly weak and suggest that Michael Turner is not likely to become a long-term success as a starter."

Jamal Lewis, on the hand, is a full-time back in a highly explosive offense with a two-year window of very startable production.

Chris Wesseling said...

Re: Pierre Thomas.

I think I've been consistently higher on him all offseason than anybody else doing dynasty rankings or analysis. I love his situation and all-around skills while I don't believe for a second that Deuce McAllister will return to anything resembling his old self . . . if he does, in fact, return.

I think my ranking accurately reflects that. I could rank him higher, but we just don't know how talent he is . . . nor do we know if the Saints will attempt to bring in another RB -- which the local papers have been speculating about for quite some time.

I love me some Ray Rice. McGahee better stay healthy and productive if he knows what's good for him.

You're probably right about Felix Jones though. I like Thomas much better than him as a fantasy back.

Anonymous said...

RE RE Maroney

I think with Jordan signed that means Morris is probably as good as gone, which really doesn't change Maroney's situation much other than now his backup is a little bit more talented.

Chris Wesseling said...

I could see someone thinking that, but I just don't see it that way. I've heard from several rabid Pats fans who claim the club's brass simply doesn't trust Maroney as a full-time back. They think he's susceptible to injuries and dances too much before he hits the hole.

Is he ultra-talented? Sure. Is he consistent? Nah. Has he ever carried a full load, even going back to college? Nope. Marion Barber split with him. Does he get work in the passing game? Nada. Four receptions last season.

I just don't believe he'll be used consistently . . . and fantasy football mandates consistency in order to win.

Anonymous said...

RE RE Turner

Of those backups how many of them had Turner's talent? Turner would have been a starter(or at least had a much larger role) if he wouldn't have been behind a HOF RB.

What is considered long-term success? I think if he can put up RB2 numbers for 3-4 years ala Thomas Jones(who is less talented) then that should be considered a success. I'm not saying Turner will ever be a top-10 guy, just that he seems like a better bet than Chris Johnson. You may be right about Lewis(I always seem to think he's older than he really is.)

Chris Wesseling said...

I don't know how many of them had Turner's talent because I don't think we know just how talented Turner is yet. He's put up interesting numbers situational with the "breather effect." He was also, what, a 6th round draft pick? Even if Turner is more talented than I believe, I don't think you can overestimate the suckitude of Atlanta's offensive line.

And he doesn't seem like a better bet than Chris Johnson to me. Maybe we just have different styles. I'm going after the guy who has a chance to be special, not a guy who has a chance to be a Top 15-20 producer.