Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

TESTING - QUARTERBACK RANKINGS

*Note: I'm testing to see whether this format looks better with the numbering sequence changed back to normal and the name, age, and value score all on the first line. It looks like it takes up significantly more space, but I think it has a better and easier to read appearance. Feedback is encouraged. If you think it looks much better or much worse, please comment or vote in the poll. Thanks.

QUARTERBACKS


TIER ONE

1. #Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 100
With Clark re-signed and Gonzalez ready to step up if Marvin doesn't snap back, Manning's consistency trumps Brady's career year.

2. Tom Brady, NE | Age: 31.1 | Value Score: 99
Remains the NFL's best QB; Moss' return guarantees another great season, but Brady is not going to hit 50 TDs again.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 95
Easily the 3rd best QB in the NFL and may bypass one of the Big Two in the next couple of years.

4. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 94
T.O.'s contract extension steadies value and maintains 30 TD expectations.

5. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 93
Should be good for a consistent 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs every year for the next few years, but what's with the Saints re-signing their own dreck at WR & TE?

6. Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 90
Can he bounce all the way back from an extremely disappointing season? Chad is back after bickering with his QB, but Henry is gone and Housh could be on his way out in '09.

TIER TWO
7. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 31.7 | Value Score: 82
I've seen guys like Eli Manning & Phil Rivers ranked ahead of him, in which case McNabb is the ideal buy low candidate for dynasty leaguers.

8. Jay Cutler, DEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 80
Impressive YPA & completion numbers bode very well for future; additions of Clady plus D-Jax and 2nd rounder Eddie Royal help to steady value.

TIER THREE

9. Vince Young, TEN | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 64
Deserved a better fate last season after seeing a freakish number of TDs called back due to penalty, drops by a lousy receiving crew, or poor route running/miscommunication. Still has plenty of upside and the possibility of a true break-out season if the light flips on with improved weaponry.

10. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 64
A much better QB than commonly believed, but he's not likely to surpass last year's passing quality. If the running game slips from true dominance, does Garrard's production see an uptick from the increased attempts or do the passing lanes start to close with the defense no longer selling out against the run?

11. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 63
He's going to have to stay healthy for all 16 games to shake the injury concerns, but there's a lot to like here. The YPA & completion percentage were very promising, so he just needs to find Johnson & Daniels in the end zone more often to take the next step to reliable #1 as opposed to an aspiring Bulger.

12.
Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 62
The 64,000 Question: Did the epiphany occur in the last 6 weeks, or was it simply the flip-side of an inconsistent QB hitting a hot streak? I believe the latter, and I can't see how even a true believer can feel comfortable relying on a streaky, inconsistent Eli as a QB1 going forward.

13. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 62
A window to make his mark as the Browns' franchise QB with the addition of Stallworth as a #3 weapon behind Edwards & Winslow; slightly worrisome is that Anderson's 2009 bonus could essentially make his new contract a one-year deal if he doesn't play up to expectations.

14. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 60
Al Saunders and an improved O-Line could bring production back in line with career norms, but don't expect many TDs; deteriorating receiving crew is worrisome.

15. #Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 56
Good news and bad news: The good news is that Rivers finally delivered consistently under pressure once the playoffs started. The bad news is that he showed flashes of David Carr happy feet and lack of arm strength during the season. Even worse, the ACL injury he suffered happened later in the season than Daunte Culpepper's, Carson Palmer's, and Donovan McNabb's . . . all of whom were much better QBs and struggled considerably in their first season back from injury. Why would we expect Rivers to do anything but disappoint in '08?

16. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 33.0 | Value Score: 52
Who is he going to be throwing to this year? With the Seahawks making an effort to upgrade the running game, he can't count on abnormally high passing attempt numbers again; I'm staying far away from Hass this season.

17. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 50
High risk, high reward; after Warner's performance, there's going to be pressure to perform well right from the start. But if he does, he could easily see a 25 TD, 3700 yard season.

18. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 50
Legit concern that he's been injury-prone in limited duty, but the pieces are already in place for him to succeed; just as importantly, he has both his coach and his GM glowing about his vast improvement over the past year. Brohm's addition means pressure on Rodgers to stay healthy and productive in his first season as starter.

TIER FOUR

19. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 40
It would be foolish not to count on an adjustment period to the West Coast Offense and a new coaching staff; I think we've all seen him look very poised at times and extremely underwhelming at other times, so it will be interesting to watch his growth throughout '08. Remember the Losman/Grossman Effect: young QBs don't always get better.

20. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 37
Top of the line arm, perfect size, prodigious talent, but the footwork was an absolute mess and questions persist about his decision making; his career could go either way, and unfortunately, Oakland isn't exactly the ideal proving ground for a developing QB right now.

21. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 33
Derek Anderson's $5M bonus before next season basically makes the 2-QB system a one year experiment. Quinn could definitely exploit an opening if Anderson doesn't show himself to be the Browns franchise QB in '08. The future is uncertain, but one of the two Browns QBs is likely to be starting elsewhere next season.

22. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 31
Early signing could be an indication the team wants him to start early in the season, but he'll be doing it behind a woeful offensive line.

23. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 30
Positive marks for poise, smarts, and an ability to lead an offense, but he needs to take a major step forward in playmaking and consistency; addition of rookie Hardy should help put the ball in the end zone more often.

24. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 33.6 | Value Score: 30
Would make for the ideal throw-in on a larger deal if you believe he'll fully recover from Tommy John surgery; job security issues damage his long-term dynasty value, but he could recoup quite a bit of value in '08 with a more explosive offense featuring the always special Steve Smith plus the move to DeAngelo Williams at RB, and the additions of D.J. Hackett & Muhsin Muhammad.

25. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 26
If---big IF---Tarvaris can put it together, Berrian and a more experienced Sidney Rice offer
some intriguing potential. I just can't get over the fact that he's the exact opposite of what the current Vikings franchise needs in a QB.


TIER FIVE

26. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 20

27. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 19

28. Drew Stanton, DET | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 18
Jon Kitna will be on a much shorter leash, so expect Stanton to get a chance at some point in '08; if Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams remain in DET, Stanton makes for a very intriguing high upside pet project.

29. Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 17
With a revamped O-Line and a more friendly running game, Clemens will be better able to get the ball to Coles, Cotchery, & Keller, but he's going to have to beat out Pennington first.

30. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 16
The new Matt Schaub? The new Aaron Rodgers? Either way, his value likely depends substantially on your league's roster size. He's a very nice stash as long as you realize he's a roster ornament for at least another year. Hope for one of the following: in-season injury to McNabb, a post-2008 McNabb trade, or Kolb becomes the new Schaub-like savior for a QB desperate franchise.

31. Alex Smith, SF | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 15
Two of his three NFL seasons have produced historically bad performances. I don't think he beats Shaun Hill in a fair competition, but the 49ers have a lot invested here.

32. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 23.2 | Value Score: 14

33. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 13
More of a game-manager type than Martz' previous QBs, but he does offer athleticism, a quick release, and the ability to lead an offense. There's some upside here, and if he beats out Alex Smith for the starting job, the whole 49er offense should receive a boost in value.

34. Brett Favre, GB | Age: 38.9 | Value Score: 13
Comeback! Comeback!

TIER SIX

35. Jon Kitna, DET | Age: 36.0 | Value Score: 9
Still has a window on '08 value with playmakers Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, but his margin for
error is razor-thin with Stanton waiting in the wings . . . and Kitna is never a strong bet to defeat his margin of error.

36. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 37.3 | Value Score: 8
Time to start the handcuffing strategy with Arizona QBs? Simply put, he needs Leinart to fall on his face in the pre-season. Warner threw up valuable fantasy numbers the last 12 games of '07 and can do it again if given the opportunity.

37. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 8

38. J.P. Losman, BUF | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 6
Free agent after 2008 season.

39. Troy Smith, BAL | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 5
Not ready yet to help an offense put up consistent points, but he has shown impressive field general abilities. Still raw, but may get a shot to sink or swim with McNair retiring.

40. Matt Moore, CAR | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 5
Looked decent in late season action . . . certainly better than any CAR backups of the past two seasons.

41. John David Booty, MIN | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 4
Was seen as one of the most NFL-ready QBs in the draft and may get a chance earlier than expected if Tarvaris Jackson can't put it together.

42. Sage Rosenfels, HOU | Age: 30.5 | Value Score: 4
The Practically Perfect Backup QB hits the free agent market in 2010.

43. John Beck, MIA | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 4
Currently sandwiched between journeyman Josh McCown and Parcells/Sparano future starter Chad Henne.

TIER SEVEN

44. Jeff Garcia, TB | Age: 38.5 | Value Score: 3
He's a better NFL than fantasy QB at this stage of his career and a poor bet at age 38 to stay as healthy and productive as last season.

45. Brodie Croyle, KC | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 3
If Grossman is odious, then Croyle is, of course, appallingly bad. The Chiefs are seriously deluded if he starts week one.

46. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 3
Second on the depth chart means he just needs Croyle to play like Croyle in order to get a shot.

47. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 3
The better of the Passing McCown Brothers has flashed some interesting ability in small doses. Would have to beat out Griese to get on the field this season, but this McCown could conceivably have a future as a starter down the road.

48. Chad Pennington, NYJ | Age: 32.2 | Value Score: 3
Losing the early battle with Clemens so far.

49. Daunte Culpepper, UFA | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 3
Can't find a job.

50. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 3
Plucky. That's it. That's the list. OK, neckbeard. That's on the list too. Woe are the Bears.

51. Rex Grossman, CHI | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 3
Come on. He's simply odious. Before last season, I called him a "turnover prone, inconsistent, inaccurate headcase." I was feeling nice that day.

TIER EIGHT

52. *Michael Vick
, ATL | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 2
How large is your roster?

53. Kevin O'Connell, NE | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 2

54. Andre Woodson, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 2

55. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 2

56. Seneca Wallace, SEA | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 2
Could put up interesting fantasy numbers if ever given a shot at regular playing time

57. Chris Simms, TB | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 2

58. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 2

59. Billy Volek, SD | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 2
Fantasy leaguers keep insisting that he must be passing up better opportunities elsewhere; but what are the chances NFL GMs are as fond of his game as fantasy owners are?

60. Brian Griese, TB | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 2
Will battle Luke McCown to see who starts once Garcia gets injured.

61. Byron Leftwich, UFA | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 2

TIER NINE

62. Chris Redman, ATL | Age: 31.2 | Value Score: 1
Upside is band-aid for a year, but Ryan's quick signing could signal the team's willingness to throw him into the fire right from the get-go.

63. Damon Huard, KC | Age: 35.2 | Value Score: 1
He's no great shakes, but he's a hell of a lot better than Brodie Croyle; with the Chiefs far from contending mode, Huard is stuck in No Man's Land.

64. Kyle Boller, BAL | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 1
Has failed and failed again to generate offense. Poor man's Rex Grossman lacks the headcase nature but also the playmaking ability.

65. Todd Collins, WAS | Age: 36.8 | Value Score: 1

66. Trent Green, STL | Age: 38.2 | Value Score: 1
Decent shot at Kurt Warner-like startable value if Bulger goes down, but keep in mind any value would be of the fleeting variety.

67. Cleo Lemon, JAX | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 1

68. Erik Ainge, NYJ | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 1

69. Gus Frerotte, MIN | Age: 37.2 | Value Score: 1

70. Patrick Ramsey, DEN | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 1

71. Charlie Whitehurst, SD | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 1

72. Josh McCown, MIA | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1

73. Charlie Frye, SEA | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 1

74. Matt Flynn, GB | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 1

75. Andrew Walter, OAK | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

76. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 35.7 | Value Score: 1

77. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 1

78. D.J. Shockley, ATL | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 1

79. Matt Cassel, NE | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 1

80. Jim Sorgi, IND | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 1

81. Quinn Gray, IND | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 1

82. Dan Orlovsky, DET | Age: 25.1 | Value Score: 1

83. Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 1

84. Joey Harrington, ATL | Age: 29.9 | Value Score: 1

85. Bruce Gradkowski, STL | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 1

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I like the format more this way.While its more a value chart than an actual ranking it can be a pain to count down to see where a player is ranked.

Also,its nice to see I'm not the only one who still believes in McNabb as an elite QB.

One question, why is Quinn so high? Are you truly convinced somebody will throw a 1st rounder Cleveland's way for him? It seems like he is a lot further from being useful than the next 4-5 guys behind him.

Chris Wesseling said...

Thanks for the feedback.

Yeah, with McNabb it's just staying with my philosophy that you always swing for the fences if you think a player has a chance to finish as a legit difference maker. McNabb is still a QB with a chance to put up a transcendent season whereas the guys below really don't inspire that feeling.

RE: Quinn. Good question. I have him high b/c there's a not insignificant chance that he could be leading this underrated Browns offense as soon as next season. Anderson was a playmaker early, but he really struggled down the stretch, and he has major accuracy issues. Granted, Anderson could throw up 30 TDs and cement the position, but he could also lose his job during the season.

Furthermore, Anderson is basically on a one-year contract b/c of his $5M bonus due next off-season. The Browns' 2-QB hedge bet may only be a one year phenomenon with the franchise having to make a choice between the two next season.

Good quotes from Pro Football Prospectus:

"When you look at the top QB performances of '07, Anderson's 56.5 completion percentage sticks out like a sore thumb. Anderson ran hot and cold all season -- he had 3 games where he completed more than 68% of his passes and 3 games where he completed well under half of them. Anderson's accuracy issues go back to his college days at Oregon State, so there's no reason to think he can readily improve this part of his game.

Anderson also faded after a hot start, throwing nine touchdowns and ten interceptions in his final five games after racking up 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions in his first 10 games. The 3-year, $24M contract Anderson signed in the offseason guarantees that he is the unquestioned starter come training camp, but it shouldn't be viewed as a long- or even medium-term commitment. The $9M roster bonus due in March of '09 means that Anderson effectively has one year to prove himself a better option than Brady Quinn. If he can duplicate last season's effort, he'll be rewarded with a long-term deal. If he falters, he'll be playing somewhere else."