If you are serious enough about this wacky hobby of ours to get into the dynasty league realm, then you really owe it to yourself to pick up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus for required pre-season reading. I grabbed a copy of the newly released 2008 version over the weekend, and once again it's chock full of cover-to-cover quality analysis.
I've heard from quite a few regular readers of Pro Football Prospectus who order it yearly for the fantasy projections. The projections are nice, no doubt, but the attraction for me is always the player comments and, secondarily, the team essays. What good is a projection without the idea behind the numbers? Why is this player going to be significantly better or worse than last season? How did you come to your conclusions?
Below are projections for the NFL rookies this season. I was happy to see that Prospectus is just as bullish on Chris Johnson as I am. I've been saying for awhile that he's the no-brainer #4 rookie selection in PPR leagues. They're equally as high on Rashard Mendenhall and his chances for immediate production. If you enjoy the projections, head over to amazon or your local book seller and score your own copy.
QUARTERBACKS
*Note: all QBs are projected to play 16 games and are heavily reliant on specific team dynamics. The projections are simply for the 2008 season under the scenario that each QB started all of his team's games. Categories are completion percentage, yards, and TD-Int ratio.
1. Kevin O'Connell, NE -- 64.3% | 3641 | 32-13
2. Brian Brohm, GB -- 59.8% | 3634 | 25-13
3. John David Booty, MIN -- 57.2% | 3348 | 23-16
4. Matt Ryan, ATL -- 56.3% | 3259 | 18-23
5. Chad Henne, MIA -- 57.4% | 2979 | 18-15
6. Joe Flacco, BAL -- 60.7% | 2729 | 10-15
RUNNING BACKS
*Note: Running Backs are ranked according to their expected role in their team's 2008 offense. Receiving numbers are in gray inside brackets.
1. Darren McFadden, OAK -- 264 | 1219 | 4.6 | 8 ___ [34 | 227 | 6.6 | 0]
2. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT -- 221 | 1057 | 4.8 | 7 ___ [34 | 279 | 8.2 | 1]
3. Chris Johnson, TEN -- 179 | 945 | 5.1 | 5 ___ [53 | 460 | 8.7 | 1]
4. Matt Forte, CHI -- 220 | 761 | 3.5 | 4 ___ [31 | 323 | 10.5 | 1]
5. Jonathan Stewart, CAR -- 202 | 763 | 3.8 | 7 ___ [22 | 134 | 6.0 | 2]
6. Kevin Smith, DET -- 181 | 676 | 3.7 | 7 ___ [33 | 276 | 8.3 | 1]
7. Felix Jones, DAL -- 164 | 760 | 4.6 | 6 ___ [16 | 156 | 9.5 | 1]
8. Steve Slaton, HOU -- 132 | 652 | 4.9 | 6 ___ [29 | 243 | 8.3 | 1]
9. Ray Rice, BAL -- 81 | 317 | 3.5 | 4 ___ [16 | 153 | 9.6 | 0]
10. Mike Hart, IND -- 75 | 305 | 4.1 | 2 ___ [16 | 114 | 7.1 | 1]
11. Jamaal Charles, KC -- 52 | 203 | 3.9 | 1 ___ [15 | 156 | 10.7 | 0]
12. Jalen Parmele, MIA -- 48 | 202 | 4.2 | 1 ___ [18 | 151 | 8.5 | 0]
13. Tashard Choice, DAL -- 40 | 196 | 4.9 | 1 ___ [8 | 65 | 7.6 | 0]
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Malcolm Kelly, WAS -- 39 | 604 | 15.6 | 4
2. Limas Sweed, PIT -- 34 | 560 | 16.4 | 4
3. Early Doucet, ARI -- 33 | 392 | 12.0 | 3
4. DeSean Jackson, PHI -- 28 | 398 | 14.1 | 2
5. Earl Bennett, CHI -- 33 | 396 | 11.9 | 2
6. Donnie Avery, STL -- 29 | 382 | 13.3 | 2
7. Jerome Simpson, CIN -- 25 | 381 | 15.0 | 2
8. James Hardy, BUF -- 16 | 258 | 16.0 | 1
9. Devin Thomas, WAS -- 19 | 247 | 12.9 | 1
10. Andre Caldwell, CIN -- 19 | 222 | 11.7 | 1
11. Dexter Jackson, TB -- 16 | 218 | 13.9 | 1
12. Eddie Royal, DEN -- 16 | 176 | 10.8 | 1
13. Marcus Smith, BAL -- 15 | 174 | 11.6 | 1
14. Harry Douglas, ATL -- 16 | 159 | 10.1 | 1
15. Mario Manningham, NYG -- 12 | 158 | 12.7 | 1
16. Jordy Nelson, GB -- 10 | 81 | 7.9 | 1
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1 comment:
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Mike
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