Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Monday, April 27, 2009

NFL Draft: Dynasty Fallout

I wrote this "Rounds 1-2 Draft Fallout" article for Rotworld's Pancake Blocks blog Saturday night, and I hope to have a Dynasty Winners/Losers article up soon. Since publication, Shonn Greene was drafted by the Jets with the first pick in the third round. I'd probably place him right around No. 6, in front of LeSean McCoy.

Initial reaction on the Top-12 Dynasty league rookie picks following the first two rounds of the NFL Draft:

1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - The draft's best all-around running back. Evan Silva and I debated the committee effect in Denver, and I just don't believe Josh McDaniels is married to that approach. He didn't use the No. 12 pick to have a dynamite player sit behind Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington and LaMont Jordan.

2. Chris Wells, Cardinals - This was a crazy good fit for both player and team. Wells is the most explosive back in the draft and will step in as the workhorse in a scary offense starting in Week One.

3. Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Just because he fell in the draft, that doesn't mean he falls in fantasy leagues. Crabtree should step in as an immediate starter and easily the best playmaker of Shaun Hill's weapons.

4. Percy Harvin, Vikings - Sure to be the most controversial of these rankings, I love Harvin's fit with the Vikings. Harvin's explosiveness and first-step quickness will make him an outstanding playmaker on astroturf, and the Vikes "pick-your-poison" offense just got a whole lot tougher to stop.

5. Donald Brown, Colts - I've never been a Joseph Addai fan, but it's true that Brown won't just push him to the sidelines. The Colts offense is great, but I don't like waiting 2+ years on a running back if I'm not sure he's going to be special.

6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - He's too similar to Brian Westbrook to carve out a significant role right off the bat, and I'm not wild about his shake and bake style making the easy transition to the NFL.

7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants - Silva's second-ranked wide receiver is also high on my list. Eli's hit-and-miss gun will be throwing to him, but the opportunity will be there right off the bat.

8. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Is he accurate enough? We'll find out, but you have to like a strong-armed quarterback's ability to find Calvin Johnson.

9. Mark Sanchez, Jets - The good news is that he was hottest name in the draft. The bad news is that the Jets didn't have a chance to find a starter opposite Jerricho Cotchery once they made the deal to get their franchise quarterback.

10. Kenny Britt, Titans - Silva believes he's a threat to Justin Gage's starting job, but I think it will end up Gage and Britt in the starting lineup with Nate Washington assuming his familiar deep-threat No. 3 role. Either way, Britt has the best chance of ending up as the go-to guy.

11. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles - Where does he fit in this offense? And is his game too similar to DeSean Jackson's? I love what the Eagles have done on offense this season, but how long until Maclin becomes a fantasy starter?

12. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - The biggest reach in the first round lands in a dysfunctional offense with a scatter-shot quarterback. The opportunity is there, but I'm skeptical of the Raiders passing game.


Jesse said...

I pretty much agree. I'm not going to fall over my self to draft any of those guys who are not in your top 4 in my PPR dynasty league but I would grab whoever is left in round 2 (we also draft free agents at the same time so guys like Cassell are out there right now).

What are your thoughts on Shonn Greene and Brandon Tate?

EdMcGon said...

Chris, in most leagues, running back is king. You need to move Brown and McCoy up the rankings, because they WILL be in the first four picks in most dynasty leagues.

You should also realize that anyone in the top 4 picks could easily grab an RB and wait for the second round to pick up a decent WR, even if WR is an area of need. Although odds are, if you're drafting with the first four picks, you need an RB more than a WR.

Also, I am not fond of Knowshon. Even without a committee, you're looking at a 4.6 RB in an offense with Kyle Orton at QB. That is NOT a good situation for any RB. It may be a few years before Knowshon's situation improves. By then, Donald Brown will be putting up monster numbers in Indy.

Speaking of Brown, have you considered Bill Polian's history of drafting RB's? Thurman Thomas, Edgerrin James, and Joseph Addai. Not too shabby.

Personally, I look at the first pick this way: If you need an RB right away, go with Beanie Wells. If you can ride for a year or two with the RB's you have, take Donald Brown. By the time Knowshon gets an offense around him, he'll be too beat up to take advantage of it.

EdMcGon said...

One other thing Chris, for the sake of argument, here's my top 6:

1A. Donald Brown
1B. Chris Wells (take Wells if you think you have a good chance to compete for a championship this year)
3. Knowshon Moreno
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Michael Crabtree
6. Jeremy Maclin

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