RUNNING BACKS
TIER ONE
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 100
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | Age: 24.4 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 97
3. Chris Johnson, TEN | Age: 23.9 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 96
4. Steven Jackson, STL | Age: 26.1 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 96
5. Matt Forte, CHI | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 92
TIER TWO
6. Frank Gore, SF | Age: 26.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 86
7. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 27.5 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 86
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR | Age: 26.4 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 85
TIER THREE
9. Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 76
10. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 27.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 75
11. Marion Barber III, DAL | Age: 26.3 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 75
12. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 72
13. Beanie Wells, ARI | Age: 21.1 | Value Score: 71
14. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 70
15. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 69
16. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 69
17. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 68
18. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 68
19. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 67
TIER FOUR
20. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60
21. #Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60
22. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 59
23. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 58
24. Donald Brown, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 57
25. Ryan Grant, GB | Age: 26.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 55
26. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT | Age: 22.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 54
27. Ray Rice, BAL | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 52
TIER FIVE
28. Shonn Greene, NYJ | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 44
29. Felix Jones, DAL | Age: 22.3 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 44
30. Derrick Ward, TB | Age: 29.1 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 42
31. Joseph Addai, IND | Age: 26.3 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 39
32. LeSean McCoy, PHI | Age: 21.2 | Value Score: 38
33. Willie Parker, PIT | Age: 28.8 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 37
34. Cedric Benson, CIN | Age: 26.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 34
TIER SIX
35. Larry Johnson, KC | Age: 29.8 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 28
36. Thomas Jones, NYJ | Age: 31.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 27
37. Laurence Maroney, NE | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 26
38. Michael Bush, OAK | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 25
39. Willis McGahee, BAL | Age: 27.9 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 24
40. Jamaal Charles, KC | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 23
TIER SEVEN
41. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | Age: 23.5 | Value Score: 17
42. Darren Sproles, SD | Age: 26.3 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 15
43. Andre Brown, NYG | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 14
44. LenDale White, TEN | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 13
45. Le'Ron McClain, BAL | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 13
46. Fred Jackson, BUF | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 12
47. Tashard Choice, DAL | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 11
48. Leon Washington, NYJ | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 11
49. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 10
50. Jamal Lewis, CLE | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 9
51. Julius Jones, SEA | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 9
52. Earnest Graham, TB | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 9
TIER EIGHT
53. Jerome Harrison, CLE | Age: 26.5 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 7
54. Chester Taylor, MIN | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 7
55. Sammy Morris, NE | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 6
56. Fred Taylor, NE | Age: 33.6 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 6
57. Brandon Jackson, GB | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 6
58. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 6
59. James Davis, CLE | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 5
60. Arian Foster, HOU | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 5
61. Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 27.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 5
62. Ladell Betts, WAS | Age: 30.0 | Value Score: 5
63. Rashad Jennings, JAX | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 5
64. Tim Hightower, ARI | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 5
65. Ricky Williams, MIA | Age: 32.3 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 5
TIER NINE
66. Glen Coffee, SF | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 3
67. Chris Brown, HOU | Age: 28.4 | Value Score: 3
68. Cedric Peerman, BAL | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 3
69. T.J. Duckett, SEA | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 3
70. Maurice Morris, DET | Age: 29.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 3
71. Dominic Rhodes, BUF | Age: 30.6 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 3
72. Mewelde Moore, PIT | Age: 27.1 | Value Score: 3
73. Gartrell Johnson, SD | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 2
74. Kevin Faulk, NE | Age: 33.3 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 2
75. Greg Jones, JAX | Age: 28.3 | Value Score: 2
76. Edgerrin James, UFA | Age: 31.1 | Contract: [UFA]| Value Score: 2
77. Javon Ringer, TEN | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 2
78. Bernard Scott, CIN | Age: 25.6 | Value Score: 2
79. Correll Buckhalter, DEN | Age: 30.9 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 2
80. LaMont Jordan, DEN | Age: 30.8 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 2
TIER NINE
81. Mike Goodson, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 1
82. Jeremiah Johnson, HOU | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 1
83. Jamall Lee, CAR | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 1
84. Javarris Williams, KC | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 1
85. Chauncy Washington, JAX | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 1
86. #Ryan Torain, DEN | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 1
87. Danny Ware, NYG | Age: 24.6 | Value Score: 1
88. Kregg Lumpkin, GB | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 1
89. Jalen Parmele, BAL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 1
90. DeShawn Wynn, GB | Age: 25.9 | Value Score: 1
91. Lorenzo Booker, PHI | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 1
92. #Kolby Smith, KC | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 1
93. Warrick Dunn, TB | Age: 34.7 | Contract: [UFA] | Value Score: 1
94. Xavier Omon, BUF | Age: 24.6 | Value Score: 1
95. Chris Henry, TEN | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 1
96. Antonio Pittman, STL | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 1
97. Ahman Green, HOU | Age: 32.5 | Contract: [UFA] | Value Score: 1
98. DeShaun Foster, SF | Age: 29.7 | Contract: [UFA] | Value Score: 1
99. Rudi Johnson, DET | Age: 29.9 | Contract: [UFA] | Value Score: 1
100. Deuce McAllister, NO | Age: 30.7 | Contract: [UFA]| Value Score: 1
101. Najeh Daveport, IND | Age: 30.6 | Contract: [UFA]| Value Score: 1
102. Michael Bennett, SD | Age: 31.0 | Value Score: 1
103. Kenny Watson, CIN | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 1
104. Michael Robinson, SF | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 1
105. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, NE | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 1
106. #Cadillac Williams, TB | Age: 27.4 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 1
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Running Back Rankings | May 28, 2009
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27 comments:
Knowshon above Beanie? Beanie is bigger, faster, and has a better offense around him. Unless you'd start Kyle Orton over Kurt Warner too...
Just not a believer in DeAngelo Williams...He does run behind a GREAT O-line--and there's a lot to be said for that--but I don't think he can produce another magical season like he did last year, especially when you consider that Stewart's role will almost certainly increase.
My rankings would look like this:
Tier Two:
Turner
Gore
Barber
Tier Three:
Brown
Westbrook
Slaton
Stewart
Jacobs
Williams
Wells
Moreno
Where's the A. Bradshaw love??? It must've been just me, but I thought Bradshaw was the best player on the field (each week) during the Giants' '07 playoff run. Perhaps he was just fresher than everyone else then?
His tumultuous offseason and Ward's early success certainly didn't help him last year, but I think this guy's gonna break out this year and really challenge for PT.
I've got Bradshaw down for 180 carries and 40+ receptions (similar to Ward's workload last year)...there's long-term and short-term value there IMO, much more so than guys like Maroney (who I do think may surprise this year, but it's a risky, risky bet), M. Bush, McCoy, and D. Brown (gotta learn pass pro if you're gonna get serious reps w/ Manning...doubt he knows it that well coming from UConn).
It appears you view Andre Brown as a serious threat to Bradshaw...is this why the two of them are ranked so low--you're waiting to see who wins the battle?
D. Ward finished as the 24th-ranked RB in my league last year, so to see the Giants' #2 RB ranked #41/#43, it makes me wonder what you know that I don't...
So I've spent the last two weeks trying to come up with a scientific formula for ranking/assigning values to players, by 'scoring' them in various categories, and I'm STILL pulling my hair out...
Just now I read in your "FAQ" section that you've tried the exact same thing, with seemingly similar results.
Your 'Daunte Culpepper' then is my Joseph Addai (among others) this year.
Somehow, Addai just keeps popping-up in the Top 15! There's no way I can validate that in my head.
Another one is Matt Forte, but in reverse...in my system (so far) he can't seem to crack the Top 10; that sounds ludicrous to me.
Then there's that little voice in your head: "maybe I'm on to something here that nobody else knows!" Yeah right...
And therein lies the rub: You do all these "scientific" rankings/formulas, but you still have the preconceived rankings/opinions in your head that seem to override things...And you're right, you do end up tweaking things so the rankings align better with the thoughts in your head, which ruins the whole thing anyway...very frustrating.
But you're right, at the end of the day, it's about your gut instincts. After all, if I'm really honest with myself, I owe much of my success in FF to my instincts, not some cockamame ranking system I or somebody else came up with.
Starred, sometimes the stats don't lie. I remember when Priest Holmes had his first 1500-yard season to lead the NFL in rushing yards for the Chiefs. The following year, EVERY expert I read called him a one year wonder and downgraded him, in spite of the fact he'd had a 1000 yard season a few years earlier with the Ravens.
Every stat said Holmes was the real deal. I drafted him first the following year in both of my leagues, and never looked back. 1600 yards and 21 touchdowns later, I was justified, and so were the stats.
ED-
I'm assuming your Priest Holmes post is referring to my D. Williams post...When I first read your comment comparing D. Williams to Priest, I dismissed it, thinking, 'You can't compare D. Williams to one of the most prolific (albeit short-lived) FF RBs of all time.
But the more I think about it, Priest just may be a good comparison after all:
1. IMO, both backs were/are more a product of a great o-line and an extremely RB-friendly system/scheme than they were/are talented.
2. Both backs struggled to begin their careers
3. Both backs had young, talented RBs behind them nipping at their heels for playing time
But that's where the comparisons end, IMO. The big difference lies in their workload splits.
During Priest Holmes' glory years ('01-'03), the 2nd RB on the depth chart average 46 carries/season, while Holmes averaged 320--an 87% to 13% split. It's easy to see that Holmes DOMINATED the workload in KC from '01-'03.
Compare that to the workload split between Williams and J. Stewart last year: 54% for Williams; 38% for (an injured) Stewart.
IMO, going forward, the opportunities just won't be there for Williams to produce like he did last season, or produce like a Top 10 RB like Chris and many others have him ranked.
I envision the split in Carolina to be 50/50 this year, as Stewart is 100% healthy and more comfortable at the pro level.
If the split is anything close to that--or even the same as last year, for that matter--Williams will have to score another 20+ TDs to perform like a Top 10 RB. I just can't sell myself on that happening again, escpecially when you consider that the other RB (Stewart) is better suited for goal line work.
And I wouldn't be surprised to see Stewart 'pass' Williams on the depth chart late in the year--I just think Stewart's the more talented, complete RB.
Ed,
I think Knowshon is much more well-rounded as a running back, and he has a huge edge in receiving ability. I was very impressed watching him the past three years at UGA, and I think he's going to be a great pro.
Wells may be a more talented runner, but there are also more question marks about his future -- both NFL and fantasy.
Oh, and the Orton/Warner comparsion -- come on, you're better than that. There's no comparison there whatsoever.
starred,
Re: Bradshaw. You're right, a lot of that is Andre Brown, whom I had rated as one of the most underrated backs in the draft. The fact is the Giants spent a higher draft pick on him than they did on Bradshaw.
I was also impressed with Bradshaw's '07 playoff run, but he now has Brandon Jacobs in front of him and Brown behind him. What's the upside here? I have him pegged as a timeshare back for now and the future.
starred,
Good to read summary on the attempt at a scientific ranking.
I'm far from an anti-stats guy, but the heart of fantasy football is trusting your well-honed instincts. This game, especially at the Dynasty league level, is much more art than science.
Starred, I was actually referring to your comment which included, "You do all these "scientific" rankings/formulas, but you still have the preconceived rankings/opinions in your head that seem to override things."
I am NOT comparing Priest to D. Williams in any way shape, or form. ;)
Oh, and the Orton/Warner comparsion -- come on, you're better than that. There's no comparison there whatsoever.
Chris,
That's my point. Beanie is in a much better situation than Knowshon. Unless Knowshon is similar to Adrian Peterson in ability, and I don't see it if he is, then you have to look at the offenses surrounding these two backs.
IF all things were equal, then I might agree with you. But Beanie's situation is so much superior to Knowshon's as to make Beanie the better one year pick, possibly longer if, like me, you think Josh McDaniels is going to fail as head coach of the Broncos.
Thinking about making an offer for Pierre Thomas in my keeper league.
I have Thomas down for 180 carries this year--in a near even split with Bush. I think he'll grab about 25 receptions, as well.
I do have him grabbing 13 TDs to Bush's 5 (rush only).
Even with 13 TDs, he only projects out to be an average player ppg-wise in my league (TD/Yd Combo, .5 PPR).
While it's hard to assign value to, I suppose the high probability of Bush missing a few games should factor-into Thomas' value as well.
In my particular league, Thomas is VERY cheap to keep at only a 20th round cost (he was a waiver p/u last year).
That low cost is enticing, but we only get to keep three players, and I'm already figuring on keeping C. Johnson (RB), R. Brown (RB) but am on the fence about Westbrook. We can start 3RBs if desired (flex).
What are your guys' thoughts on the above projections for Thomas? Too high? Too low?
Considering what you already have, Thomas would be a good pickup. But I can't really judge the deal until I see what you'd be giving up.
Ed-
Haven't really made a solid offer yet, just trying to determine if I have this guy pegged right. There's a lot of hype surrounding this guy right now, so it's a tough time to make an offer--I'm just trying to see if the hype is justified.
So far, I've got him projected as an average back, perhaps finishing the year in the RB20-range.
If he is in fact more of an 'RB20' than the 'RB10' many are hyping him up to be, then I don't really see a need to make a strong offer.
It's why I wanted to run my projections for Thomas (180 carries, 800 yards, 11 TDs and 20-25 receptions) by you guys--to see if perhaps I'm missing something.
As I said in a previous post, he only costs a 20th round to keep--that alone makes him worth doing my due diligence.
I threw out an admittedly weak offer a week ago or so, and it was roundly rejected by the owner; judging by his response, he sees Thomas as RB10-15 material...He believes Bush is going to be used almost exclusively as a 3rd down back this year...I just can't see that happening.
What kind of workload do you think Thomas will receive?
Have a fairly enticing deal on the table for Westbrook, and would like some input.
Been offered:
Calvin Johnson
3rd round pick
-for-
Westbrook
We can only keep 3, and I'd be keeping Ronnie Brown, Chris Johnson, and if the deal goes down, Calvin Johnson. I'd also have two first round picks and the pick in the 3rd as a result of this trade (Westy 'costs' a 1st to keep...it's complicated).
I think this is a good trade, but I also know it's a tough time to be getting good value for Westbrook, so I may be blinded by the fact I'm receiving an offer at all.
The only concern I have with CJ is Stafford, but from what I've seen, he should at least be as good as the collection of QBs throwing the ball to CJ last year.
Starred,
Thomas should get the bulk of the workload, although it's hard to say whether he'll have enough, or be good enough, to be a top 10 RB. Thomas is no DeAngelo Williams.
As for the Calvin Johnson trade, I'd grab it. CJ will be a number 1 WR for years to come. And don't let Stafford worry you. I remember when CJ was in college, with Reggie "Wild Thing" Ball throwing to him.
And you get a 3rd rounder too? Icing. ;)
That Reggie "Wild Thing" Ball reference was fuel for a good belly laugh...Thanks for that!
Ya, I actually accepted the CJ trade, only to have the owner pull an Indian Trade before we hung up after he remembered that he doesn't have a 2nd round pick this year due to a trade he made last year. The trade is, as he put it, "ON HOLD." Frustrating as hell...
But what I forgot to mention was this:
I have Dwayne Bowe on my roster, also. I acquired Bowe as part of a deal that brought Ronnie Brown to me in April.
Bowe costs a 20th rounder to keep, as opposed to CJ's cost of a 5th rounder.
I'm wondering how much better CJ will be than Bowe. Don't get me wrong, I think CJ has loads more talent than Bowe, but I think their QBs will even them out a bit.
If the difference is negligable, then I think I'll nix the trade, hold on to Bowe and try to get a better deal for Westbrook, or maybe just end up keeping Westy.
In the context of 'end of season (2009) ranks' (WR3, WR11, etc.), where do you guys foresee CJ and Bowe finishing, respectively?
It's hard to assess Bowe's potential at this point.
But let's say hypothetically that Bowe is as good as Randy Moss. Then look at the difference in Moss's numbers between Brady throwing in 2007 and Cassel throwing in 2008:
2007: 98-1493-23
2008: 69-1008-11
Bowe in 2008: 86-1022-7
Calvin Johnson in 2008: 78-1331-12
Johnson is already better than Moss, and he WILL get better. Bowe will get better too, but I doubt he will be better than CJ most years.
I would grab CJ in a heartbeat, except there's a Georgia Tech fan in my league that will sit on him forever.
That said, Bowe might be good enough for you. But if you could get CJ for Westbrook, then keep Bowe too, you are golden for years to come at the WR spot. And your starting RB's are good enough to win you quite a few championships with that lineup. If you pull it off, you'll have my envy.
starred,
I'm not a big fan of projections. I'd much prefer to use talent as a baseline, in which case I'd acquire Calvin no matter the cost if he's available. I'd pull the trigger.
Ed-
Thanks for the input on CJ vs Bowe...good analysis indeed.
I can only keep 3 players in my league.
So, while I could keep Bowe and CJ if that Westbrook trade went down, it would be at the expense of not keeping R. Brown or Chris Johnson.
My league has a flex position, and I find it to be a tremendous advantage to start 3 RBs (within reason, of course) as opposed to 3 WRs. Because of that, I find it hard to justify letting either RB go.
Plus--and I know I'm in the minority here--I think R. Brown is in line for a BIG year; I still think he's one of the most talented RBs in the League.
And Chris Johnson, while I'm sure his numbers will decline a bit(rookies who have seasons like his RARELY improve their numbers the following year), is still ultra-valuable to me.
However, I do have two first round picks this year, so I could snag two RBs with those picks. But the available back just aren't that great this year (Our league uses a 3-year max keep). Here is how I rank the RBs that will be available in my league (.5 PPR):
1. Mojo Drew
2. Frank Gore
3. Marion Barber
4. Brandon Jacobs
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Beanie Wells
7. Willie Parker
8. Thomas Jones
9. Joseph Addai
10.Larry Johnson
Currently, I own the 3rd pick and the 6th pick in the Draft.
So, if I kept Bowe, CJ and Chris Johnson, I could just re-draft Brown and have a good shot at getting Moreno or Wells at 1.06. Currently, Brown only costs a 9th round to keep (somehow he made it to the 9th round last year), so re-drafting would change that from a 9th to a 1st--changing his value drastically.
That lineup would look like:
Chris Johnson
Ronnie Brown
Beanie Wells
Calvin Johnson
Dwayne Bowe
Not bad, but I really don't like relying on rookies to be every week starters right out of the gate. Usually (if I can of course), I like having a rookie as a 4th RB and see what I have from there. But I haven't watched tape yet, so who knows, perhaps I'll change my mind about Moreno/Wells/another rookie; as of yet, I just haven't seen a Chris Johnson or Ronnie Brown-type in this class.
At first blush, K. Moreno does remind me a lot of Marion Barber, though, and that certainly ain't bad. It's just the other 18 RBs in Denver's camp that scare me...
Only keeping 3 is what makes it hard to decide between Bowe and CJ...
Their cost difference (Bowe-20th round; CJ-5th round) is something to consider, too...I'm trying to come up with some kind of 'value system' based on PPG vs cost, but as of yet have been largely unsuccessful.
Thanks again for your analysis on CJ & Bowe; that was good stuff, had never thought about doing that kind of comparison before.
Chris-
While I subscribe to the same theory (get as many studs as possible--at any cost), I just don't know if I can agree with taking that approach with Calvin--not sure if he's reached true 'fantasy stud' status yet.
Don't get me wrong, he's as talented as they come, but as I've stated before, the rookie behind center (or even worse, Daunte) scares me.
I keep thinking of Andre Johnson being held back by David Carr's ineptitude.
Also, as a general rule, I have a hard time considering any WR as a true 'stud.' They're just too volatile--not only from year to year but from game to game as well. (If you'll remember, I was the one trying hard to pawn off Steve Smith last year--and I finally did it this offseason [got the 3rd pick in the draft for him and Warner])!
Question: Has there been any analysis done recently as to how fantasy WRs fare with rookie QBs?
I know every situation's different, but it'd be nice to at least know what the 'odds' were...
Maybe that's something I can dive into...
starred,
I see it almost completely opposite.
First, the elite WRs are much more dependable from year-to-year than elite RBs.
Second, I remember you trying to pawn off Steve Smith then, and I still don't understand it. He's the only WR in the NFL that averaged over 100 yards per game last season, and he remains a dominant talent. That one just floors me.
Third, I have no qualms about Calvin whatsoever. You win fantasy football leagues with monsters, and Calvin is a monster. I don't think there's any way Stafford and/or an in-shape Culpepper will hold his numbers down after he produced so well last season with the dreck of a washed up Kitna, crappy Orlovsky, and couch potato 290-pound Culpepper throwing to him.
Lions QBs posted a 55% completion rate, 18/19 TD/Int ratio, and 6.5 YPA last season ... and the only reason the numbers even look that decent is b/c they just threw the ball up to Calvin, and he made them look good. Stafford can easily outproduce those numbers -- he's throwing it to Calvin afterall.
Starred,
Don't let the rookie QB scare you off. Just look at what Ryan and Flacco did last year with their top wideouts:
Roddy White: 88-1382-7
Derrick Mason: 80-1037-5
If you want to go back a little farther to find a dud QB with a decent WR, Tim Couch is a fair example as a 1999 rookie:
Kevin Johnson: 66-986-8
Need I remind you, CJ is better than ANY of the receivers listed above, by a long shot.
I differ on my own rankings. Check me out on football-fantasy-fanatics@blogspot.com
Love what your are doing with your blog. I just started recently and will keep tabs on yours.
I differ on my own rankings. Check mine out at football-fantasy-fanatics@blogspot.com
I love what you are doing with your blog.
Well, I pulled the trigger on the Westbrook for Calvin & a 3rd trade.
The owner called me up about a week later saying he felt bad about the way he backed out of it after accepting it and said the trade needed to be put through. Classy move--was needed after a not so classy move.
Certainly hope I did the right thing here. Firmly believe I upgraded big time at WR (Bowe -> Calvin).
Just hoping I didn't jump off the Westbrook train a year too early. But with me having the 3rd pick in the draft and being assured of getting either MJD/Gore/Barber, I feel I can replace Westbrook pretty effectively.
I'll certainly miss the two/three 45-point bombs he puts up annually, but I certainly won't miss having 17 injury news websites bookmarked, either.
Now I just have to find a way to move up a spot to the 2nd pick; I just feel more comfortable with Gore than Barber at this point. Although IMO I think many are overestimating F. Jones' workload and are subsequently undervaluing Barber.
Speaking of Barber...I'd like to hear your guys thoughts on what you think his workload will be this year...
The prevailing opinion out there seems to be that Felix Jones will eat into Barber's workload to the point that he will no longer finish in the top 15 RBs or so.
I think he'll garner about 60% of the workload in Dallas, equating to about 14-15 att/game. I still think he'll be used heavily on 3rd downs/in the passing game--due in large part to his Superb pass-blocking ability (the guy is a Beast, like having a freakin' guard in the backfield!)--and I think he'll end up with 40 or so receptions.
And I of course have Barber remaining the RB of choice once the 'Boys cross the 20.
To me, this workload will not be much different at all from the workloads he's had the previous two years--years in which he's finished inside the top 15 in my league PPG-wise.
My only major concern with Barber this year is the Dallas offense--I think T.O.'s departure will hurt it's productivity. Since Barber's workload is lesser than many other top 10-12 RBs, his value is slightly more reliant on TDs. Not sure he's going to see the same amount of scoring chances with T.O. gone.
But I'm a Dallas fan--and a big fan of Barber--so my judgment may certainly be clouded when it comes to assessing his value.
Would love to hear your guys' thoughts on Barber. Do you see F. Jones (or anything else) changing his value at all?
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