Running Back Rankings: March 15, 2008

RUNNINGBACKS

TIER ONE
[100] Adrian Peterson MIN 23.5 - Simply the most talented player on the field
[98] Steven Jackson STL 25.1 - Rams & new offensive coordinator Al Saunders to build offense around multi-dimensional S-Jax
[97] LaDanian Tomlinson SD 29.2 - Have we seen the last of the truly dominant LT2? He may bounce back with a vengeance after all the flack he took for the Pats game, but it's tough to rank him higher at the crucial RB age of 29
[93] Brian Westbrook PHI 29.0 - Money in PPR leagues and still underrated, but injuries are a constant concern; is this offseason the time to flip him for a younger talent before it's too late?
[91] Frank Gore SF 25.2 - Talented, well-rounded, great job security, and in line to haul in a ton of receptions in Martz' offense which saw Marshall Faulk take his game to the next level
[90] Joseph Addai IND 25.3 - Safe call in the Colts offense, but is 300 touches per year his limit?
[89] Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 23.4 - One of the best players in the NFL and averages a TD per game even in limited touches; his time for Westbrook-like domination is coming like a freight train
[84] Marshawn Lynch BUF 22.4 - Should see his role expand on the heels of an impressive rookie season

TIER TWO
[77] Marion Barber III DAL 25.3 - He and Ronnie Brown have consistently given me the most trouble since I've started these rankings, and this offseason is no different. Barber's distinct strengths (runs hard, scores often, well-rounded) and weaknesses (runs too hard, likely to wear down with major increase in carries, could lead to short career, Cowboys likely to add a talented counterpart) make for a complex value judgment for dynasty leaguers
[76] Clinton Portis WAS 27.0 - Something is askew here: his owners are constantly trying to deal him, but they also consider him an elite back. The problem is he's not quite the ideal RB1 that dynasty leaguers want to rely on, but it's increasingly difficult to trade him for an upgrade
[76] Reggie Bush NO 23.5 - We have to accept the fact that he's not the dynamic homerun hitter he was hyped to be, but he's still gold in PPR leagues and was used at the goal-line while Deuce was injured
[75] Larry Johnson KC 28.8 - With the dwindling YPC, the 400+ carry season of '06, the foot injury, the perdition of what was once possibly the best O-Line in NFL history, and now a punchless Croyle-led offense, L.J. simply has too much going against him to return to '05-'06 form. Those days are gone
[73] #Ronnie Brown MIA 26.7 - Here's the crux of the problem: even with the advances of modern medical technology, no RB in history has returned as the same back immediately after ACL surgery. If Brown won't be truly himself again until '09, what's his dynasty value? Can he be counted on as a fantasy starter at all in '08? The answer to that last question is going to count for a lot in determining his value
[72] Willis McGahee BAL 26.9 - High marks in job security and consistent production, but the Ravens offense inspires so little faith
[69] Ryan Grant GB 25.7 - The Packers love his game, so there's no worry about job security any time soon; how will Favre's exit affect the value of the running game?
[68] Laurence Maroney NE 23.5 - It will be interesting to see if the Pats trust Maroney in short yardage after his success there late in the season; Maroney is a talented back in a great offense, but there are still legit concerns about his usage patterns in that offense

TIER THREE
[58] Willie Parker PIT 27.8 - When you lose goal-line carries & 3rd down work, you lose a hefty portion of your fantasy value; I like FWP, but I've always sensed that the Steelers don't trust him to be a true workhorse
[56] DeAngelo Williams CAR 25.4 - Not likely to get regular goal-line work regardless, but if CAR stays with Toefield as his timeshare partner, Williams gets another spike in value. If they draft a talented back, the questions will linger
[53] Jamal Lewis CLE 29.0 - Too many dynasty owners are writing off a talented back who is playing very well with fresh legs; there aren't too many RBs around the league with this much job security and a guaranteed prominent role in a highly productive offense. Frankly, I probably have him too low as opposed to too high
[53] Michael Turner ATL 26.5 - Will be the Thunder to Norwood's Lightning in ATL, meaning Turner will get the early down and short-yardage work but will likely lose some value in the passing game. Will he find the end zone enough to make up for Norwood's production drain?
[46] Brandon Jacobs NYG 26.2 - He will always face questions about staying healthy and being a bit of a novelty act, and now he has to contend with an Ahmad Bradshaw problem

TIER FOUR
[36] Ernest Graham TB 28.7 - Most of his value is going to be tied up in the 2008 season with the Bucs showing a definite interest in finding another reliable RB by hook or by crook; he can help you win now, but there's just not enough long-range value here
[35] Julius Jones SEA 27.0 - New starting RB for the Seahawks could regain quite a bit of value; now let's see what they do in the draft
[33] LenDale White TEN 23.7 - In addition to the dedication, weight, & maturity issues, BakeSale has picked up a couple more: (1) He's useless if the Titans are playing from behind and (2) The Titans are going to be continually on the lookout for a quality RB to pair with him and siphon production
[31] Pierre Thomas NO 23.7 - Like Willie Parker a couple of years ago, Thomas could capitalize on a huge Week 17 game to carve out a prominent role in his team's offense especially if Deuce's microfracture right knee and ACL left knee hold him back
[30] Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 22.5 - I was eyeballing his game for weaknesses throughout the playoffs, but I didn't find any glaring ones; he may not be able to carry a full load, but the question is moot with Jacobs in front of him

TIER FIVE
[24] Justin Fargas OAK 28.6 - What are the chances he stays healthy and holds off all of the competition for his job throughout the whole season? Sell (relatively) high if it's not too late; McFadden to the Raiders at #4 is a legit concern
[23] Thomas Jones NYJ 30.0 - With the Jets' re-vamped O-Line, he could move up a bit as long as the Jets don't draft a RB in the first couple of rounds; unfortunately, many suspect the Jets are the likely McFadden landing spot
[22] Travis Henry DEN 29.8 - The definition of ethereal value; if stability is London, then Henry is Tokyo; Denver looks like a pure RBBC going into '08
[21] Edgerrin James ARI ^[x] 30.1 - His goal-line & passing game production have already been taken away, and the Cardinals are now looking for his successor in the draft; still a possibility of being cut this spring/summer
[20] Rudi Johnson CIN ^[x] 28.9 - He looks like he's running on dead legs, but there's some chance his poor production was more the result of the hamstring injury than being washed up. Either way, he's reached the point where he could lose his job at a moment's notice . . . if he hasn't already
[20] Selvin Young DEN 24.9 - Talented, explosive, and well-liked by his head coach, but he's never going to dominate the carries
[19] Michael Bush OAK 24.3 - Now that he's healthy, can he stay healthy? If so, he has a better chance to eat into Fargas' work than Rhodes or Jordan do; is he more of a time-share back or a guy who can carry the load in the future?

TIER SIX
[13] Chester Taylor MIN 29.0 - As valuable of a pure backup as any RB in the league, Taylor is still most valuable to Adrian Peterson owners; won't be a free agent until after the '09 season when he'll be almost 31-years-old
[12] #Kevin Jones UFA 26.0 - Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love
[12] #Kenny Irons CIN 25.0 - There's definitely a window of opportunity in Cincinnati's backfield right now, but it's going to tough for Irons to exploit it at less than 100% in the year following ACL surgery
[11] Tatum Bell DET 27.5 - Currently the starting RB in Detroit, but that may change before long; didn't stop Tatum from predicting 1,300 yards & 15 TDs for himself this season
[10] Ricky Williams MIA 31.3 - Could be a good story here if Brown is slow to return to full health; after a couple of seasons away from football, Ricky should have fresh legs and is one of the few backups who can carry a full load if needed
[10] Jerious Norwood ATL 25.1 - As expected, Norwood won't be given an opportunity to shoulder the load in ATL; how valuable can be with limited touches?
[9] #Cedric Benson CHI ^[x] 25.7 - Injury prone, headcase RB lacking in explosiveness & receiving ability just lost a step he couldn't afford to lose and now likely to be splitting carries at best. Where do I sign up?
[8] Fred Taylor JAX 32.6 - Has as much value as a 32-year-old, part-timer without goal-line and passing game opportunities can possibly have
[8] Ahman Green HOU 31.5 - Mistakenly regarded as washed up when he should more accurately be portrayed as a RB who can still play and play well but can't stay healthy under a full workload at this stage of his career
[8] Chris Brown HOU 27.4 - Picked a good situation with Texans' zone blocking scheme and no dominant RB in front of him, but Brown just can't be relied on as more than a committee back

TIER SEVEN
[6] Derrick Ward NYG 28.1 - Looks like injury history scared off potential suitors, so he re-signs with Giants which dampens his value
[6] Ladell Betts WAS 29.0 - Now more insurance for Portis as opposed to a backfield complement; startable in the event of a Portis injury but valueless in the meantime
[6] Leon Washington NYJ 26.0 - A homerun hitter, but just not physical enough to ever be more than a part-timer; his only hope for value is to catch enough passes to be useful in PPR leagues
[6] Chris Henry TEN 23.3 - Titans continually on the lookout for a backfield upgrade, but Henry is the 3rd down back and White insurance for now
[6] Lamont Jordan OAK ^[x] 29.8 - Just release him already! He turns 30 this season and the chronic back problems leave him as nothing more than a backup option, but he has a chance to be startable for a few games at a time if he gets the opportunity
[6] [#]Cadillac Williams TB 26.4 - We've heard everything from "career's over" to "suiting up by week one." The most like scenario is that he'll start the season on the PUP list and will be a shadow of his former self once he does return . . . and truth be told his former self wasn't all that hot to begin with

TIER EIGHT
[4] #Deuce McAllister NO ^[x] 29.7 - Wait, ACL surgery on his left knee and microfracture surgery on his formerly reconstructed right knee? Now that's a horse of a different color for a 30-year-old RB. Why weren't we informed of this microfracture surgery? I can't envision a scenario where Deuce is not washed up at this point
[4] Shaun Alexander SEA ^[x] 31.0 - Just a matter of time before he's cut by Seattle; could end up in the mix for his hometown Bengals. His days as a workhorse are long gone, and he's going to struggle to ever maintain fantasy relevance again
[4] Adrian Peterson CHI 29.2 - Right now he's the most effective RB in Chicago, but will likely go back to his former role when new talent is added in the draft
[4] #Sammy Morris NE 31.5 - Was a good fit in New England's offense, but Maroney stepped up when Morris was out with his sternum/clavicle injury; will he keep the short-yardage/goal-line work? Always a chance for an increased role with the whims of Belichick
[4] #Chris Perry CIN 26.7 - As brittle as brittle can be, and likely lost more than a step by now, but there's a window of opportunity in Cincy's backfield
[4] Kenny Watson CIN 30.6 - Too pedestrian to grab hold of the starting RB job and run with it, but a repeat of his effective '07 season is possible if no other RB steps up for the Bengals
[4] Brandon Jackson GB 22.9 - Jackson owners who drafted him with a high rookie pick want to believe he could eventually win the job from Grant, but it's just not going to happen. Jackson is buried behind Grant, and he'll be lucky to get regular 3rd down duty
[4] Lorenzo Booker MIA 24.3 - Only hope for value is as a flex player in PPR leagues. Can he catch enough passes to make himself relevant?
[4] Musa Smith BAL ^(U) 26.3 - Not without talent, but too unreliable due to injury history; would have to land in the ideal situation to merit a look beyond stash option
[4] Najeh Davenport PIT 29.6 - Likely to keep goal-line/short yardage duties as Parker's complement, but Moore could take over on 3rd downs; has startable value if Parker goes down with injury again
[4] Mewelde Moore PIT 26.1 - A weapon in the passing game and likely to take over punt-return duties; has a track record of impressive performance in small doses but gets nicked up easily
[3] Dominic Rhodes OAK 29.6 - Strictly a backup to Fargas and could find himself behind Bush by the time the season starts
[3] Kenton Keith IND 28.2 - Would have some nice value as a sidekick to Addai if the Colts weren't looking to upgrade at RB in this year's draft
[3] Darren Sproles SD 25.3 - Explosive. Could find fantasy value as a receiving weapon out of the backfield if the Chargers made it a point to get the ball to him, but his slight build will likely keep him from handling the ball enough to make a sizable fantasy impact
[3] Kolby Smith KC 23.8 - Was decent in a 5-game trial at the end of the season, but he's limited to backup duty going forward
[3] DeShaun Foster SF 22.8 - Signed a meager contract to head West as Frank Gore's backup; don't look for a heavy role in the offense unless Gore gets injured

TIER NINE
[2] Andre Hall DEN 26.1 - Any RB in DEN could get a shot, but he's definitely 3rd on the depth chart even before April's draft; didn't ingratiate himself to his coach by getting arrested last month
[2] Antonio Pittman STL 22.7 - More of a pure backup than Brian Leonard at this point
[2] Tony Hunt PHI 22.8 - Could become the short-yardage back in Philly, but not likely to ever be more than one half of a time share backfield
[2] J.J. Arrington ARI 25.6 - Appears the Cardinals don't see him as anything more than a 3rd down back
[2] Fred Jackson BUF 27.6 - Coaching staff is high on him, but he's more of a change of pace/pure backup as opposed to a guy with an opportunity
[2] DeShawn Wynn GB 24.9 - Green Bay sees him as more of a pure backup than Jackson, but Wynn's injuries have put him solidly on the bench behind Ryan Grant
[2] Chris Taylor HOU 24.8 - Longshot, but the coaching staff seems high on him
[2] Vernand Morency GB ^[R] 28.6 - Ceiling is 3rd down back
[2] T.J. Duckett SEA 27.5 - Same old Duckett, should take over the short-yardage in Seattle
[2] LaBrandon Toefield CAR 28.0 - Could be D-Willy's short-yardage legs in Carolina if they don't grab a high round RB in the draft
[2] Aaron Stecker NO 32.8
[2] Jesse Chatman NYJ 29.0 - Thomas Jones insurance
[2] Warrick Dunn TB 33.7 - Ill-suited to 3rd down work at this point in his career, but that's where he's going to play

TIER TEN
[1] Michael Pittman TB ^(U) 33.1
[1] Maurice Morris SEA 28.8
[1] Michael Bennett TB 30.0
[1] Jerome Harrison CLE 25.5
[1] Ron Dayne HOU ^(U) 30.5
[1] Gary Russell PIT 22.0
[1] Michael Robinson SF 25.5
[1] Ryan Moats PHI ^[x] 25.7
[1] Brian Leonard STL 24.6
[1] Cory Ross BAL 26.0
[1] Dwayne Wright BUF 25.3
[1] Brian Calhoun DET 24.4
[1] Darius Walker HOU 23.6
[1] Garrett Wolfe CHI 24.1
[1] Jackie Battle KC 24.9
[1] Jason Snelling ATL 23.7
[1] Danny Ware NYG 23.6
[1] Reuben Droughns NYG ^[x] 30.0
[1] Correll Buckhalter PHI ^[x] 29.9
[1] Kevin Faulk NE 32.3
[1] Mike Bell DEN ^[T] 25.4


ROOKIES
1. Darren McFadden, Arkansas - 6'1", 211 | 21.0 ---> 3/5/08: League insiders tell the NY Daily News that "it's looking more and more like" the Jets will take Darren McFadden with the No. 6 overall pick. He'd have to be there, but the smart money is on McFadden not being a top-five pick because of off-field concerns. The Jets are expected to use this draft to upgrade their overall team speed. McFadden would be a start.
2. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon - 5'11", 234 | 21.5 ---> 3/21/08: Citing a source close to the situation, NFL Network's Charley Casserly reports Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart's toe surgery went well and he may be ready for training camp. NFL people are reportedly "optimistic" about Stewart's recovery and think he's still a first-round pick. Casserly believes many teams still have Stewart rated as the No. 2 back in the draft, presumably ahead of Rashard Mendenhall.
3. Rashard Mendenhall, Illnois - 5'11", 225 | 21.2 ---> 2/24/08: Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall unofficially timed 4.37 and 4.43 in the NFL Combine's forty-yard dash. Officially, he ran a 4.45. Outstanding times for Mendenhall, who is apparently ranked as the top running back on some teams' draft boards. Mendenhall is a tackle breaker, so showing he has home run speed as well certainly can't hurt.

4. Felix Jones, Arkansas - 5'10", 207 | 21.3 ---> 2/24/08: Arkansas RB/KR Felix Jones ran an official 4.47 forty at the Combine. It's not a blazing time like his former teammate, but plenty fast. Jones will likely be drafted late in the first round or early in the second as a complementary back and return ace. He has long-term starting upside.
5. Jamaal Charles, Texas - 6'0", 205 | 21.7 ---> 2/24/08: Texas RB Jamaal Charles officially ran a 4.38 forty at the NFL Combine. Charles had fumbling problems in his college career, but there was never any doubt about his speed. He'll likely be a late second or third-round pick.
6. Ray Rice, Rutgers - 5'8", 199 | 21.7 ---> 2/24/08: Rutgers RB Ray Rice ran an unofficial 4.44 forty at the NFL Combine Sunday. However, he's believed to have tweaked his hamstring on the run. Despite his 5'9/200-pound frame, Rice was highly durable at Rutgers, so this would be an inopportune time for an injury. The extent of the tweak is unknown.
7. Chris Johnson, East Carolina - 5'11", 197 | 23.0 ---> 4.24 40 time at combine
8. Kevin Smith, Central Florida - 6'1", 211 | 21.7 ---> 1/6/08: Central Florida RB Kevin Smith has declared for the 2008 NFL Draft. Smith (6'1/211) led the nation in rushing as a junior, finishing 61 yards short of Barry Sanders' NCAA record of 2,628. He showed good receiving skills at UCF, but faced weak competition in C-USA and was used at an alarming rate. Smith had 450 carries in 2007, and it will likely be a concern on draft day.
9. Matt Forte, Tulane - 6'1", 222 | 22.7 ---> 2/24/08: Tulane RB Matt Forte was officially timed at 4.46 in the forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Behind Jonathan Stewart (Oregon), Forte may have established himself as the No. 2 pure power back in the draft this offseason. Forte was the MVP of the Senior Bowl in January. One report had him on the Browns' radar.

10. Jalen Parmele, Toledo
11. Justin Forsett, California
12. Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
13. Mike Hart, Michigan
14. Anthony Alridge, Houston
15. Steve Slaton, West Virginia