EBF's Top 24 Dynasty Rookies

Many of you know EBF [East Bay Funk] as one of the most respected voices over at the Footballguys.com message boards. He has an especially impressive handle on the college-to-NFL process and always manages to provide an informative opinion on the dynasty newcomers. Here is his pre-draft Top 24 from back in March, and below is his updated post-draft assesment of dynasty value for the Top 24 NFL rookies this season:


By Nick Scott, Footballguys.com message boards

FIRST TIER

1. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT

OUTLOOK - When you talk about the synergy of situation and talent, there's no better bet in this RB class than Rashard Mendenhall. He doesn't have the elite combine numbers I look for in a back, but he has good speed and an elite frame. He's a solid first round RB who should eventually step in and rack up several 300+ carry seasons. A lot of people are down on him because he landed on a team with a proven starter. Personally, I think it's a great spot for him. Pittsburgh has a phenomenal track record in the first round. Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Holmes, Hampton, Miller, Simmons, Faneca, Burress. This team drafts winners. The fact that they were willing to place their bets on Mendenhall improves his standing in my mind. More importantly, the presence of Roethlisberger and friends guarantees that Mendenhall will never be the focus of opposing defenses. I've always thought FWP was an overrated talent. Mendenhall should eventually nudge him out of the way and become another Joseph Addai type performer. Yes, you might have to wait a year or two, but if he lives up to his potential then it will be well worth it.

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

OUTLOOK - Stewart is an excellent all-around athlete with a high ceiling for FF leagues. He has some of the best combine numbers I've seen in recent years and is built like a super hero. Carolina made a big commitment to him by selecting him with the 13th pick in the draft and it's only a matter of time until he becomes the face of their ground game. The Panthers have bulked up their offensive line and made no secret of the fact that they want to re-establish themselves as a running team. I fully expect Stewart to seize the starting role immediately and make a strong push for Rookie of the Year honors. He is comparable in talent level to Steven Jackson and is capable of dominating games. If all I was looking for was an immediate impact, he would be my top overall rookie, but he has a few things working against him. He's almost too muscular for his own good, which makes him a little bit sluggish at times. He also takes more big hits than he should. I think he'll be productive, but he could be a frequent visitor to the disabled list.

3. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

OUTLOOK - McFadden is a controversial prospect who draws a wide array of opinions. I love his acceleration, his speed, and his utter domination of the SEC. Nevertheless, you can file me in the skeptic column when it comes to DMC. He has a bad body lacking the lower body bulk you look for in a workhorse back. His BMI is extremely low. And while some might compare him to another tall and thin runner named Adrian Peterson, McFadden doesn't have nearly the same power, tackle breaking ability, or elusiveness. I see him as a suped-up change of pace back who will provide a spark as part of a committee. Oakland is a murky situation for him. He'll definitely get an early opportunity to make plays, but this offense has huge boom-or-bust potential with unknown quantities JaMarcus Russell and Javon Walker figuring prominently into the equation. You sort of get the feeling that this team is headed for disaster, yet there's some exciting potential there. That description also sums up McFadden in a nutshell.


SECOND TIER

4. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

OUTLOOK - Jones is an explosive back whose shifty running style should translate seamlessly to the NFL level. I have little doubt that he'll be effective carrying the football and catching passes out of the backfield. My main concern and the primary question surrounding his FF value is whether or not he can transcend his initial RBBC status and eventually become a three down starter. The answer to that question will determine Felix's FF value. Personally, I think he has a chance to eventually be a full-time guy. He's not huge and he doesn't run with the sheer force of a guy like Marshawn Lynch or Larry Johnson, but he's nearly 210 pounds stacked onto a compact 5'10" frame. I believe he can play a Westbrook or Garner type role if a team gives him that chance. Nevertheless, the realistic possibility of him being a permanent committee type keeps him out of the first tier.

5. Ray Rice, RB, BAL

OUTLOOK - Rice is a stocky runner who has a lot of the traits I look for in a top RB prospect. He's shifty, powerful, and built low to the ground. He has a very sturdy frame and looks like he should hold up well to the rigors of the position. I see very little bust risk here, but there's no getting around the fact that Ray's weight of 200 pounds is well below the average NFL starter. His size may put a cap on his pro potential. Nevertheless, he's a very talented player and I think he's being downgraded too severely based on what's presumed to be a bad situation in Baltimore. Rice was hand-picked by the new staff and while he'll be restricted to a committee role in 2008, he could be the starter as soon as 2009. Good RB's have a tendency to displace incumbents. I think the FF community has been too quick to assume that the Ravens see McGahee as their back of the future. I've read speculation that they will try to move him like what happened with Thomas Jones in CHI, Kevan Barlow in SF, Travis Henry in BUF, and Ricky Williams in NO. Even if that doesn't happen, Rice is a solid long-term investment and a better bet than any of the RB's listed below him here.

6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, WAS

OUTLOOK - I've read all the stuff about bad knees, slow 40 times, and character concerns. When it comes down to it, I like Malcolm Kelly's talent too much to rank him below any other WR in this class. I believe Kelly is one of those receivers like Chad Johnson (4.5), Bernard Berrian (4.5), or Antonio Bryant (4.6) who plays faster than his 40 time. People sometimes forget that for all the talk about speed, playing WR is a matter of getting open and catching the football. I believe Kelly can get open in the NFL and I know he can catch the football. I think he has a big upside with the talent to develop into a Braylon Edwards type player. He'll have an immediate opportunity to get on the field for the Redskins. If his knees don't become a lingering problem, it's only a matter of time until he's a productive starter in the NFL.

7. Devin Thomas, WR, WAS

OUTLOOK - I've cooled off a little bit on Thomas recently because he gives off a little bit of the Chad Jackson "workout warrior" vibe, but he's still a promising prospect universally considered one of the best pass catchers in the draft. He has very good size and timed speed with good all-around athletic ability. There have been some rumblings about his inconsistent hands, but you don't average almost 100 yards per game unless you can catch the football. There's no doubt that Thomas has the potential to develop into a starting WR in the mold of a less physical Dwayne Bowe. However, he is a bit of a boom-or-bust pick and he likely won't be very productive out of the gate. Nevertheless a solid gamble after the elite backs are off the board.


THIRD TIER

8. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL

OUTLOOK - I'm no expert when it comes to the mystical art of scouting quarterbacks, so most of what I know about Matt Ryan is the same stuff you can read in any scouting report. He's a big guy with good intangibles and escapability. He has adequate arm strength. The biggest boon to his FF value is the fact that the Falcons took him third overall. He will be given every opportunity to succeed and will be working with an underrated crew of receivers. You never really know with quarterbacks, but even if Ryan isn't the next Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger, he should maintain decent trade value over the next few years while he tests the pro waters.

9. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

OUTLOOK - Forte is a decent all-around back who excels at many things, but is extraordinary at nothing. Let's start with the positives. He has legitimate featured back size and very good feet for a taller back. He's nifty running behind his blockers and has better change of direction skills than you'd expect. His speed is not great, but it's adequate. His production in college was excellent. On the downside, he's not a truly explosive back and I doubt he has the talent to start in the NFL for more than a season or two. He has long legs and I think he could be a higher than average risk to suffer serious knee injuries. I'm not in love with his talent, but he's a solid player who can produce when given an opportunity to carry the ball. With Cedric Benson quickly falling out of favor in Chicago, Forte has a chance to step in and earn a significant role right away. Still, he's not a franchise back in the NFL or FF.

10. Kevin Smith, RB, DET

OUTLOOK - Smith is one of the enigmas in this draft class. He's a record-breaking runner with underrated strength, good change of direction skills, and decent speed. He has the potential to become a productive featured back. Nevertheless, he draws a wide variety of opinions from draft pundits for good reason. His build is a little bit abnormal and his running style is unconventional. His combine numbers were fairly ordinary across the board. He doesn't really jump off the screen at you and doesn't make a lot of flashy "wow" plays. I doubt Smith will be very good in the NFL. The Lions have a fairly weak record of evaluating talent and it's unlikely that their offense will set Smith up to succeed. In spite of those negatives, I still think Smith is worth a top 10 pick in most leagues simply because any 215+ pound RB drafted on the first day has a chance to hit big.


11. Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

OUTLOOK - Jordy Nelson is not a flashy player and he'll never be a dominant Pro Bowl type WR. He simply doesn't have the physical gifts of guys like Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. But the more I watch him, the more I like him. He's an underrated athlete and talented football player with a legitimate chance to develop into a highly-productive WR. The first thing that stands out about him is his speed. He's not Ted Ginn or Randy Moss, but he was a state champion sprinter (and long jumper) in high school and his pure straight line jets are actually quite good once he gets going. He has good hands and is tough player with excellent character and a team-first mentality. Ted Thompson has done a great job finding receivers who fit his system. Both Greg Jennings and James Jones emerged from relative obscurity to wildly outperform expectations. That bodes well for Nelson. He's a perfect fit in Green Bay, where Jennings can work the deep stuff, opening the middle of the field for Nelson. He should eventually develop into a solid "move the chains" type WR sort of like a hybrid of Wes Welker and Ed McCaffrey.

12. James Hardy, WR, BUF

OUTLOOK - Hardy is a big WR with a high upside for the next level. He plays mean and is a monster in the red zone. He has very good straight line speed for his size. Like a lot of jumbo receivers, he struggles in terms of quickness and explosiveness. He is not especially crafty running routes and is not a real threat after the catch (he is a catch-and-fall type WR rather than a catch-and-run type). In spite of his flaws, he will immediately challenge for a starting job in Buffalo and is a decent long-term gamble for teams in need of an impact WR. I like the direction of the Buffalo offense as a whole and I think Hardy could make a nice living catching TD balls from Trent Edwards. That said, the gap between him and the lesser WR prospects is narrow enough to where I might recommend trading down instead of selecting him.


FOURTH TIER

13. Andre Caldwell, WR, CIN

OUTLOOK - Caldwell passes the eyeball test. He's an impressive athlete with elite timed speed, a strong base, and good football skills. I love his upside in Cincinnati and I think he stands a very good chance of beating out Jerome Simpson for the WR3 spot next year. If Chad and/or Housh skips town in the near future, then the sky is the limit for this player. However, it's not all good news. Despite his great talent, Caldwell never really put it all together on the field at Florida. He never had a thousand yard season in college and could be viewed as something of an underachiever. Furthermore, he has lingering injury issues and the fact that he nearly fell all the way out of the draft's top 100 picks is a red flag. If this guy is so good, why did so many teams pass on him? I like his upside and I think he's a nice value at his late 2nd-early 3rd rookie draft ADP, but he should be viewed as a gamble and not a sure thing.

14. Donnie Avery, WR, STL

OUTLOOK - Avery is a speedy WR with great athletic ability. He was highly productive in college and he'll be given every opportunity to earn major snaps as a rookie in 2008 and to possibly push Drew Bennett out the door in 2009. He is cut from the same cloth as Santana Moss and former Rams WR Kevin Curtis. Avery isn't as good as Moss though and he's known to have inconsistent hands. I think he can eventually become a produtive second wideout in St. Louis, but his size puts a cap on his upside. A solid prospect, but probably not a difference maker.

15. Limas Sweed, WR, PIT

OUTLOOK - Sweed has been a difficult guy for me to evaluate. On the one hand, I like his fluid running stride, his height, and his ability to make circus catches. On the other hand, I was initially underwhelmed by him and I can't quite shake the idea that there's something missing there. Nevertheless, his upside is pretty big and he landed in a great spot where he'll have the best chance to flourish. The Steelers were ecstatic to get him in the draft and he should immediately figure into their plans as a downfield threat and a red zone target. I'm not convinced he's the next Burress, but there's some starting potential here.

16. Tashard Choice, RB, DAL

OUTLOOK - Choice is an underappreciated back whose talent level is not far below Matt Forte and Kevin Smith. He has starter size at 5'11" 215 and a good set of all-around skills. He runs with good power and leg drive to break arm tackles and also possesses enough speed and burst to make tacklers miss. However, he is not an elite talent and is probably not the type of back a team will ever actively pursue to become its starter. I think he is very comparable to Chester Taylor in terms of playing style and FF value. He should stick around the league for a while and produce in spurts. He's buried on the Dallas depth chart at the moment, but he'll get his chance eventually.

17. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

OUTLOOK - Johnson is a great athlete with off the charts combine numbers. I think he offers nice value as a situational runner in the NFL and a poor man's Reggie Bush in PPR leagues. His speed is flat out ridiculous and you can't ignore the first round pedigree. Even so, I think it's highly unlikely that he'll ever develop into a starter. He doesn't have the pure bulk you look for in a number one back. He has some talent and will make some big plays, but is probably another Tennessee draft reach. It might seem crazy to rank him this far below Felix Jones and Ray Rice. Maybe it is. I don't hate Johnson. I just don't see the starter upside that I would look for in a top 15 pick. In a PPR, you can take him much earlier than this.

18. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI

OUTLOOK - Jackson is a dynamite talent trapped in a bad body. He's one of the electric players in this class, which is why he's been on the draft radar for a very long time. He has great deep speed and open field moves. He has good hands and pure WR skills. He's a very gifted player overall, but there's no getting around the fact that he's built like a high school kid. He makes Marvin Harrison look like the Incredible Hulk. That might be an exaggeration, but the guy is tiny. You really have to wonder if a team will feel comfortable using him as a full-time outside WR. I think his size presents natural limitations, which is why he's this far down on my list. The talent is there though.

19. Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ

OUTLOOK - If all goes according to plan, Keller could develop into a Chris Cooley/Dallas Clark type weapon as a TE and H-back. He is short and light for the position with little hope of ever developing into an adequate blocker. Nevertheless, he's a talented receiver with a pretty high upside for FF leagues. He has good coordination and is very dangerous after the catch. He can run away from linebackers and overpower defensive backs. If you need a TE or you want a safe pick, he's a pretty fair gamble since he's the best player in the draft at his position and he has a first round pedigree. As is the case with any TE, his upside is limited.


FIFTH TIER

20. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL

OUTLOOK - It's no secret that I don't like drafting QB's with high rookie picks. I think you can almost always get a better QB value at any given rookie pick by trading it straight up for a veteran. With that said, there comes a point where the value is hard to resist. Flacco is a big signal caller with the kind of arm NFL scouts love. I don't have a whole lot to say about him, but we know for sure he's going to be given the reigns to this offense sooner or later. Like Matt Ryan, he'll hold pretty good trade value for the next few years while he gets his shot.

21. Eddie Royal, WR, DEN

OUTLOOK - Royal is known first and foremost as a great punt returner, but I think he also has the potential to develop into a quality starting receiver. He's a speedy jitterbug who has drawn comparisons to Steve Smith. I don't think he has Smith's strength or tenacity, but I do see shades of Laveranues Coles and in a best case scenario I could see Royal becoming that type of receiver. Jay Cutler is a talented QB and somebody will have to catch his passes over the next few years. Royal is not a sure thing, but he's in a good position to succeed.

22. Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN

OUTLOOK - Coastal Carolina is not a program that I follow very closely, so I don't know a whole lot about Simpson other than what's written in articles that anyone can find on the internet. Simpson is an athletic WR with enticing physical gifts, but he's rough around the edges and he feels like one of those "project" WR's who might never pan out. From what little I've seen of him he looks like a bit of a spaz, but you can't ignore the 2nd round pedigree or the potential to step into a starting role catching passes from Carson Palmer. Definitely one of the boom-or-bust picks in this draft. Five years from now he could be a star or he could be on the back of a milk carton. I'm leaning towards the latter, which is why he's down this low.

23. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC

OUTLOOK - Jamaal Charles is like the RB version of DeSean Jackson: a brilliant talent trapped in a bad body. I love his speed and his jukes. He's a great athlete and one of the most exciting backs in the draft. Unfortunately, all of that talent is wrapped in a thin frame that looks like it will never be able to handle the 210-220 pounds needed for full-time duty. I see Charles having the same impact as Jerious Norwood: a good change of pace back. If he somehow manages to bulk up then he becomes a very interesting option because he has a ton of talent. Right now he's a reach at his ADP though.

24. Earl Bennett, WR, CHI

OUTLOOK - Lots of people are high on Earl Bennett, but I just can't get excited about him. He has decent straight line speed and is a reliable target, but he lacks "wow" factor and looks like little more than a possession WR whose upside will be capped in the 800-900 yard range. Nevertheless, he was a first day draft pick and he could quickly emerge as Chicago's best receiver. You could do worse.

BUBBLE
QB Chad Henne - Will almost certainly get a chance to start. Experience is a plus.
QB Brian Brohm - Has some intangibles and could surprise.
RB Ryan Torain - Could surprise in the short term. Don't think he's the long term answer though.
RB Steve Slaton - Overrated change of pace back. Too small to ever be a starter.
WR Early Doucet - My 25th player. Solid, but unspectacular. Better NFL than FF player.
WR Mario Manningham - Too many question marks on and off the field. Has some upside though.

SLEEPERS
RB Xavier Omon - Buried behind Lynch, but I like his leg drive and his run skills.
RB Jalen Paremele - Mediocre scores on the eyeball test, but his combine numbers are bonkers.
RB Thomas Brown - Talented, but undersized. Might eventually have value in DEEP leagues.
WR Adrian Arrington - He'll probably bust, but he's a cheap gamble and I like his upside.


[EBF's] COMMENTS

- The hardest part of this process for me was ranking the receivers. There are bunch of guys clustered together.I tried to separate them into tiers, but I think almost all of the guys in my top 24 could conceivably become the best WR from this class. Pick your favorite guy and hope he pans out or pick the best value. Sometimes working the draft isn't so much about taking the best player as it as about getting good players at a low price. You can do that this year in the 15-28 range. I'm loving the WR value in the late 2nd-early 3rd of the drafts I'm seeing.

- I may be selling Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson short, but I just don't see them as future starters in the NFL. The league is full of talented backs who don't have significant FF value because they're not cut out for featured duty. It's tempting to lump Felix Jones in with these guys, but there's more hope for him at 207 pounds. Ray Rice is light, but his BMI is huge. Shades of MJD, but not as drastic.

- My early opinion on rookie drafts is that Steve Slaton, Ryan Torain, and Jamaal Charles are the worst values. Tashard Choice, Dustin Keller, and most of the lesser receivers have been good values in most drafts. I also like the value of Ray Rice in the 1.07-1.09 range that I've seen him slipping to. Mendenhall at 1.04 is a huge steal if you're lucky enough to get the chance.