Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Quote of the Day | March 12, 2009: Underestimating the Fog

From Bill James' 2005 SABR article, "Underestimating the Fog":

I believe that a more careful study, steering clear of comparison offshoots, is still likely to demonstrate that hitters perform (essentially) independent of one another, except in a few isolated cases.

In a sense, it is like this: a sentry is looking through a fog, trying to see if there is an invading army out there, somewhere through the fog. He looks for a long time, and he can’t see any invaders, so he goes and gets a really, really bright light to shine into the fog. Still doesn’t see anything.

The sentry returns and reports that there is just no army out there—but the problem is, he has underestimated the density of the fog. It seems, intuitively, that if you shine a bright enough light into the fog, if there was an army out there you’d have to be able to see it—but in fact you can’t. That’s where we are: we’re trying to see if there’s an army out there, and we have confident reports that the coast is clear—but we may have underestimated the density of the fog. The randomness of the data is the fog. What I am saying in this article is that the fog may be many times more dense than we have been allowing for. Let’s look again; let’s give the fog a little more credit. Let’s not be too sure that we haven’t been missing something important.

Tags: Bill James, baseball, Moneyball

No comments: